The HST-JWST Transition Plan End-of-life for HST Implementation of JWST Steven Beckwith Space Telescope Science Institute.

The HST-JWST Transition Plan

End-of-life for HST

Implementation of JWST

Steven Beckwith

Space Telescope Science Institute

7/31/03 2

HST high impact science

Anticipated scienceAnticipated science2.2. Distance scale: HDistance scale: H00

Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics Imaging sensitivityImaging sensitivity

3.3. Black holes in galaxiesBlack holes in galaxies Spectroscopy at diffract. limitSpectroscopy at diffract. limit

4.4. AGN emission linesAGN emission lines UV spectroscopy at diff. limitUV spectroscopy at diff. limit

5.5. QSO host galaxiesQSO host galaxies Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics High contrast imagingHigh contrast imaging

7.7. IGM/ISM (QAL)IGM/ISM (QAL) UV spectroscopyUV spectroscopyDark energy

Young galaxies

HD 209458b

Aurorae on Jupiter Young planets

Unanticipated scienceUnanticipated science1.1. Galaxy formation: the HDFGalaxy formation: the HDF

Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics Imaging sensitivityImaging sensitivity

6.6. Dark energy: SN Ia & Dark energy: SN Ia & Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics

8.8. -ray bursts: host galaxies-ray bursts: host galaxies Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics

9.9. Planet formation: disksPlanet formation: disks Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics High contrast imagingHigh contrast imaging

10.10. Extra-solar planetsExtra-solar planets Photometric stabilityPhotometric stability Spectroscopic stabilitySpectroscopic stability

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HST (44%)Chandra (18%)Astrobiology (15%)FUSE (9%)CGRO (5%)MGS (4%)Rocket/Balloon (1%)Other (4%)

Space Science (76%)

Earth Science (15%)

Space Flight (9%)

Rest of the World (92.8%)

NASA (7.2%)

Contributions to World Discoveries and Technological Achievements

World wide Space Science

NASA

HST

Space Science

NASA

(OF THIS)

(OF THIS)

HST accounted for 33% of all NASA discoveries

in 2002

2002 Science News Metrics

7/31/03 5

The HST-JWST Transition

NASA’s previous plan:– Launch JWST in 2007– De-orbit HST in 2010 on a shuttle return mission

• Provides a 3-4 year science overlap• Makes use of a planned shuttle flight in 2010• Allows continued HST operations in case of problems with JWST

This plan has changed:– HST may not continue to operate usefully from SM4 until 2010– The Columbia accident highlights risks of a retrieval mission

Events that impact science toward the end of the decade:– JWST launch date is now planned for 2011– JWST has less optical capability than originally assumed– Each instrument upgrade has made Hubble a new science mission

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Considerations

Congress recognizes the potential need for additional HST support– The benefits of extending HST should be judged on the merits of

the science it will enable– We have an opportunity to enhance science without impacting

NASA’s current plans for new projects

Unique Hubble capabilities provide compelling science opportunities until 2010 and beyond

– Dark energy, dark matter, and exo-planets can be addressed with Hubble, with or without new instrument(s) after SM4

– Hubble has not reached the limit of its capabilities• It is still possible to improve Hubble by >10x

– There is still time for a careful review of the cost/benefit to science of extending the use of Hubble; Hubble is currently producing 33% of NASA’s results for <2% of the budget.

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HST future science

““Local” neighborhoodLocal” neighborhood• Exo-planet detection and Exo-planet detection and

characterization characterization • Na, HNa, H22O, CO in 5-10 exo-O, CO in 5-10 exo-

planet atmospheresplanet atmospheres• Direct imaging of exo-planetsDirect imaging of exo-planets• Nature of MACHO sourcesNature of MACHO sources

Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics High contrast imagingHigh contrast imaging

• Mass of Galactic black holesMass of Galactic black holes• History of star formation in the History of star formation in the

Local GroupLocal Group

““Distant” universeDistant” universe• Dark matter in dwarf spheroidalsDark matter in dwarf spheroidals• Tests of galaxy-halo formationTests of galaxy-halo formation• Reverberation mapping of Reverberation mapping of

accretion flows near BH event accretion flows near BH event horizonshorizons

• Large-scale structure of the IGMLarge-scale structure of the IGM• Galaxy formation in clusters to z~8Galaxy formation in clusters to z~8• Weak lensing of dark matter halos, Weak lensing of dark matter halos,

0 < 0 < zz < 2 < 2• Dark energy: does dark energy Dark energy: does dark energy

result from result from ??

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Congressional appropriations language

“The conferees commend NASA for the continued success of the Hubble Space Telescope and the extraordinary contributions it has made to the advancement of science…

The current situation may also require additional funding for HST. The conferees direct the program manager to maintain the current schedule for NGST development and not reduce NGST funds to cover HST shortfalls. The conferees direct NASA to carry out an in-depth study of an additional servicing mission (SM5) in the 2007 timeframe that would study operating HST until the Webb Telescope becomes operational. The study should address the costs of an additional servicing mission and the potential scientific benefits. Further, the conferees direct NASA to study the means for disposing of Hubble following the deployment of the Webb Telescope in the 2010 timeframe. This study should examine the full range of options for disposal of the Hubble including relative costs and mission constraints.”

FY03 Joint-Conference Report, H.J. Res. 2, Feb. 13, 2003

Hubble’s Impact

Measures of scientific and public impact that Measures of scientific and public impact that indicate Hubble’s strategic importance to NASA indicate Hubble’s strategic importance to NASA

and public support for researchand public support for research

7/31/03 10

HST (44%)Chandra (18%)Astrobiology (15%)FUSE (9%)CGRO (5%)MGS (4%)Rocket/Balloon (1%)Other (4%)

Space Science (76%)

Earth Science (15%)

Space Flight (9%)

Rest of the World (92.8%)

NASA (7.2%)

Contributions to World Discoveries and Technological Achievements

World wide Space Science

NASA

HST

Space Science

NASA

(OF THIS)

(OF THIS)

HST accounted for 33% of all NASA discoveries

in 2002

2002 Science News Metrics

7/31/03 11

Scientific productivity of Hubble

7/31/03 12

Pap

ers

per

year

Publication Year

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1995 2000

launch

HST publication rates

7/31/03 13

HST high impact science

Anticipated scienceAnticipated science2.2. Distance scale: HDistance scale: H00

Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics Imaging sensitivityImaging sensitivity

3.3. Black holes in galaxiesBlack holes in galaxies Spectroscopy at diffract. limitSpectroscopy at diffract. limit

4.4. AGN emission linesAGN emission lines UV spectroscopy at diff. limitUV spectroscopy at diff. limit

5.5. QSO host galaxiesQSO host galaxies Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics High contrast imagingHigh contrast imaging

7.7. IGM/ISM (QAL)IGM/ISM (QAL) UV spectroscopyUV spectroscopyDark energy

Young galaxies

HD 209458b

Aurorae on Jupiter Young planets

Unanticipated scienceUnanticipated science1.1. Galaxy formation: the HDFGalaxy formation: the HDF

Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics Imaging sensitivityImaging sensitivity

6.6. Dark energy: SN Ia & Dark energy: SN Ia & Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics

8.8. -ray bursts: host galaxies-ray bursts: host galaxies Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics

9.9. Planet formation: disksPlanet formation: disks Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics High contrast imagingHigh contrast imaging

10.10. Extra-solar planetsExtra-solar planets Photometric stabilityPhotometric stability Spectroscopic stabilitySpectroscopic stability

7/31/03 14

News references to observatories, 6/03Cumulative News Refererence for Space Science Missions and Observatories, June '02 to

June '03

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

VLA

Gemini

Keck

SIRTF

SETI

VLBI

Cassini

Mars Global Surveyor

Mars Odyssey

Chandra

Mars Exploration Rovers

Hubble

missions

major news references

Cumulative News References for Space

7/31/03 15

Hubble Oversubscription RateHubble Time Oversubscription

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

NICMOS ends

SM 2:STIS

NICMOS

SM 3b:ACSNCS

Hubble’s Evolution

Improvements in science and telescope capability Improvements in science and telescope capability through servicing missionsthrough servicing missions

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Imaging Instrument cost & capability

base

WF/PC1 WF/PC2 ACS WFC3NICMOS

Instrument Cost

Speed (QE x pixels)

0

100

Cost (M$)

100

200

Speed ofobservation

200

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Detector evolution

HST Pixel Count for Imaging

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Launch SM1 SM2 SM3a SM3b SM4

Mpixels (Vis)

Mpixels/10 (IR)

Detector Quantum Efficiency

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Launch SM1 SM2 SM3a SM3b SM4

QE (250nm)

QE (800nm)

QE (1500nm)

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Improvements in science capabilities

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Science Data Volume over time

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Spacecraft capability

ParameterParameter LaunchLaunch

4/19904/1990

SM1SM1

12/199312/1993

SM2SM2

2/19972/1997

SM3ASM3A

12/199912/1999

SM3bSM3b

4/20024/2002

SM4*SM4*

20052005

Total power (W)Total power (W) 24952495 24952495 22702270 21502150 28352835 27702770

Power to instruments (W)Power to instruments (W) 10801080 11901190 10351035 10001000 17601760 16401640

Power req’d by instr. (W)Power req’d by instr. (W) 500500 465465 690690 655655 12601260 15051505

Pointing jitter, all sources (mas)Pointing jitter, all sources (mas) 3939 2323 No chg.No chg. No chg.No chg. 1414 No chg.No chg.

Pointing jitter, once/orbit (mas)Pointing jitter, once/orbit (mas) 3636 2121 No chg.No chg. No chg.No chg. 66 No chgNo chg

Data storage capacity (Gb)Data storage capacity (Gb) 33 No chg.No chg. 1212 2121 No No chg. chg.

No chg.No chg.

Computer power (MIPS)Computer power (MIPS) 0.40.4 4.64.6 No chg.No chg. 9191 No No chg. chg.

No chg.No chg.

7/31/03 22

Improvements in HST power

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Improvements in HST stability

Red: pre-SM3b disturbance responses (SA2)Black: post-SM 3b disturbance responses (SA3)

Options for Hubble End-of-Mission

Program changesProgram changes

Options to boost/de-orbitOptions to boost/de-orbit

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Current plans for Hubble mission

7/31/03 26

Hubble Orbital LifetimeNo additional reboosts 4 mile reboost in 2005 (SM4)10 mile reboost in 2009

(no reboost in 2005)

Re-entry dateWorst case Nominal caseSolar cycle Solar cycleDec 2013 Dec 2022Dec 2015 Apr 2024Jun 2020 >2028

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Alti

tude

km

6/22

/03

6/22

/05

6/22

/07

6/22

/09

6/22

/11

6/22

/13

6/22

/15

6/22

/17

6/22

/19

6/22

/21

HST Altitude Decay: Nominal caseCycle 24 + 2s Cycle 25 Schatten Predictions (11/2002)

10 km reboost

no reboost

7/31/03 27

Hubble Component Lifetimes

ComponentComponent RR6yr6yr

FGS & FGEFGS & FGE 0.700.70

Data Management UnitData Management Unit 0.730.73

Rate GyroRate Gyro 0.800.80

Reaction Wheel AssemblyReaction Wheel Assembly 0.850.85

Solid State RecorderSolid State Recorder 0.860.86

PDU (Distribution)PDU (Distribution) 0.900.90

EP/TCEEP/TCE 0.910.91

Power Control UnitPower Control Unit 0.920.92

SIC & DH (NSSI-1)SIC & DH (NSSI-1) 0.940.94

Solar Array Electronics ControlSolar Array Electronics Control 0.950.95

7/31/03 28

Dark EnergyDark Energy

Dark energy: SN IaDark energy: SN Ia UWFI: 1000 SN Ia (1 yr HST)UWFI: 1000 SN Ia (1 yr HST) Simultaneous Simultaneous mm to ~5%, to ~5%,

distinguish distinguish (w(wxx = -1) or = -1) or exotic dark energy (wexotic dark energy (wxx > -1) > -1)

Test systematics (is universe Test systematics (is universe really really acceleratingaccelerating?)?)

UWFI FOV ~10’x10’; 9x ACS area; 15x WFC3 IR

HST with WFI: ~1000 SN Ia post 2010Provides strong test of universal acceleration

Instr. #SN t(yr) w(%)Now 40 4 25ACS 200 1 10WFI 1000 1 5

7/31/03 29

CODEX capabilitiesCODEX capabilities

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3 hours

Ingress Eclipse Egress

Exo-planet atmospheresExo-planet atmospheres

Giant exo-planets:Giant exo-planets: Several planets around bright Several planets around bright

(m(mVV < 10 < 10mm) stars) stars HST provides only way to HST provides only way to

study atmospheres (requires a study atmospheres (requires a few hundred orbits per few hundred orbits per candidate) candidate)

STIS spectroscopy of HD 209458b atmosphere

HST is unique for the study of eclipsing exo-planet atmospheres.

Future enhancements

Notes on technical, scientific, and funding Notes on technical, scientific, and funding possibilitiespossibilities

7/31/03 32

HST’s focal plane

7/31/03 33

Wide Field Imager: 90 sq. min.Wide Field Imager: 90 sq. min.ACS

WFI

N

E

7/31/03 34

Anticipated science from Hubble

Extra-solar planets (eclipses)Extra-solar planets (eclipses) Photometry & spectrosc. stabilityPhotometry & spectrosc. stability High contrast imagingHigh contrast imaging

Dark energy (SN Ia)Dark energy (SN Ia) Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics Imaging sensitivity Imaging sensitivity

Galaxy formation & evolutionGalaxy formation & evolution Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics Imaging sensitivityImaging sensitivity

Dark Matter: gravity lensingDark Matter: gravity lensing Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics

Distance scale (Cepheids)Distance scale (Cepheids) Astrometric precisionAstrometric precision Long temporal coverageLong temporal coverage

Age of the GalaxyAge of the Galaxy Diffraction-limited opticsDiffraction-limited optics

GALEX

HST (ACS)

8m ground (Gemini)

HST-WFC3

SNAP

JWST

Imaging: / = 5 10 in 10 ksec

GALEX

HST (STIS)

8m ground (Gemini)

JWST

Spectra: / = 1000 10 in 10 ksec

Wavelength (m)

10-16

10-14

10-12

10-18

10-16

10-14

F

(erg

/s/c

m2 )

0.1 0.5 1 2 5

7/31/03 35

Current HST capabilities in imaging

JWST Plans

Current evolution of capabilities, development Current evolution of capabilities, development plans, schedule confidenceplans, schedule confidence

The JWST Replan

NASA HQ Challenge:NASA HQ Challenge: 1.6B development cap1.6B development cap Tight FY03-FY07 budgetsTight FY03-FY07 budgets Launch in 2010-11Launch in 2010-11 STScI as Operations CenterSTScI as Operations Center

Replan Conclusions (April ‘03)Replan Conclusions (April ‘03) ESA to provide Ariane VESA to provide Ariane V 6-m primary (18 or 36 segments)6-m primary (18 or 36 segments) CSA NIRCam parts moved to FGSCSA NIRCam parts moved to FGS All 3 instruments still alive and All 3 instruments still alive and well.well. Reshuffling of responsibilitiesReshuffling of responsibilities

Ariane V

29.4 m2

25 m2

7/31/03 38

JWST Schedule (approximate)

2003: Reviews, Mirror & detector selected, SRR, PRD starts2003: Reviews, Mirror & detector selected, SRR, PRD starts 2004: Mirror manufacture begins, detailed designs2004: Mirror manufacture begins, detailed designs 2005: NAR, instruments begin construction2005: NAR, instruments begin construction 2006: CDR, Science Ops System s/w dev. starts2006: CDR, Science Ops System s/w dev. starts 2007: SI testing, flight computer delivered 2007: SI testing, flight computer delivered 2008: Mirror, Science Instruments, B1 sci ops delivered2008: Mirror, Science Instruments, B1 sci ops delivered 2009: SI testing @ GSFC, Mirror at Plumbrook, B2 sci ops2009: SI testing @ GSFC, Mirror at Plumbrook, B2 sci ops 2010: Thermal Vac, End-to-end spacecraft tests2010: Thermal Vac, End-to-end spacecraft tests 2011: Launch, August 20112011: Launch, August 2011 2012: Science starts Feb: 20122012: Science starts Feb: 2012

7/31/03 39

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Years

Delaysafter C/D

starts

InstrumentSel. ToLaunch

C/DDuration

Prime Sel.to Launch

Mission phase

Great Observatories Timing

HST

Chandra

SIRTF

JWST Plan

JWST Schedule Confidence

Average delay after Average delay after C/D start is 1.8 yearsC/D start is 1.8 years

JWST is 3 years from JWST is 3 years from C/D startC/D start

JWST schedule is JWST schedule is aggressive in 2/3 of aggressive in 2/3 of other categories.other categories.

Assumes HST would have launched in Fall 1986 except for Challenger; assumes SIRTF Launch in August 2003

From these data, we may From these data, we may expect ~2 year delay in expect ~2 year delay in JWST launch compared JWST launch compared to the current plan.to the current plan.