The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment The History The History Neville SMITH Bureau of Meteorology, Australia Michel LEFEBVRE Villeneuve, France
Dec 21, 2015
The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
The HistoryThe History
Neville SMITH
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Michel LEFEBVRE
Villeneuve, France
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The seeds …The seeds …
Michel and La Chapelle-Aubareil 1995 Practical experience Knowing what is useful
TOGA, WOCE Development of an ocean
observing system
GONOW or GODAE?
Concept agreed early 1997
GGOODDAEAE
GGOODDAEAE
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umThe Foundations … The Foundations …
The First GARP Global ExperimentThe First GARP Global Experiment The goals of GARP were
effectively:a) deterministic weather forecasting;b) understanding climate
FGGE Goals (circa 1978) Development of more realistic models for
extended range forecasting, general circulation studies, and climate.
To assess the ultimate limit of predictability of weather systems.
To develop more powerful methods for assimilation of meteorological observations and, in particular, for using non-synchronous data...
To design an optimum composite meteorological observing system for routine numerical weather prediction...
Ocean predictionUnderstand, predictclimate
Ocean models
Ocean predictability
Ocean assimilation
The observing system
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umWhy a Global Ocean Data Why a Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ?Assimilation Experiment ?
Opportunity development and maturity of remote sensing and
in-situ observing systems, making global real-time observation feasible
steady advances in scientific knowledge (e.g. TOGA, WOCE) and our ability to model the global ocean and assimilate ocean data
Need user demand for (global) ocean products for a
variety of applications including scientific research the future sustained, well supported ocean
observing system requires a convincing demonstration of its utility
Timing Now (1997) for 10 years
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Where was the science?Where was the science?
• Practical prediction
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Organising GODAEOrganising GODAE
“Aloof” and self determining
Partners (PIs) Patrons The GODAE
Common
A beginning, and an end
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On the importance of dataOn the importance of data
Altimetry and satellite data The support of the CEOS Strategic
Implementation Team 1997 The OSTST – GODAE alliance
Argo 1998 OceanObs 1999 GHRSST 2000/2001
GODAE provided a unifying force
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GODAE: The System BuildGODAE: The System Build
NWPcentres
Measurementnetwork
Data AssemblyCentres
DataServers
AssimilationCentres
ApplicationCentres Research
users
Users
Legend:
Sources ofinput
GODAEcommon
Users of GODAEoutputs
ProductServers
Flows ofinformation
NWPcentres
Measurementnetwork
Data AssemblyCentres
DataServers
AssimilationCentres
ApplicationCentres Research
users
Users
Legend:
Sources ofinput
GODAEcommon
Users of GODAEoutputs
ProductServers
Flows ofinformation
Climate Climate PredictionsPredictions
Models: consistent analysesModels: consistent analyses
Regional Regional PredictionsPredictions
Climate Climate PredictionsPredictions
Models: consistent analysesModels: consistent analyses
Regional Regional PredictionsPredictions
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Lessons learned …Lessons learned …
Successes, we have had a few … But not all things have followed to plan
The Symposium will reveal Operating prediction systems Advances in knowledge Advances in the observing system A powerful legacy
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1998
1999
2000
2003
2001
2002
2004
2007
2006
2005
Concept
Development
Operational Demonstration
Consolidation and transition
I dentif y Application CentersEstablish metricsExercise real-time in situ servers
GODAE PhasesGODAE Phases
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And so … some last thoughtsAnd so … some last thoughts Good people
My enduring memory will be of the people that have worked to make GODAE a reality
GODAE: OK, we are now at the end. We lay before you
our achievements and ask you to judge whether we have succeeded or not.
It is humbling to see the progress made, and the plans for the future, and to look back at the basis from which this was made.
Success begets responsibility