"The Great Recession of 2008 and Oil Prices" by Melike E. Bildirici, Elçin A. Alp, and Tahsin Bakiritas

8/7/2019 "The Great Recession of 2008 and Oil Prices" by Melike E. Bildirici, Elin A. Alp, and Tahsin Bakiritas

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Jmzm?Nb z`n{ {z|j~) z`l vlimznhb{`nt mghbc CJT) hni tvnkl{) z`l lpk`mbcl vmzl) z`lk|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz) ghvzcmcl vmzl{) mbj z`l f|jclz jlanknz snii fl lptihvlj" Z`lahiihsnbc jmzm slvl |{lj nb z`n{ ghjli? z`l CJT jmzm slvl cmz`lvlj avhg z`l \"["Jltmvzglbz ha Khgglvkl F|vlm| ha Lkhbhgnk Mbmi~{n{5 hni tvnkl nbahvgmznhb sm{hfzmnblj avhg z`l \"[" Jltmvzglbz ha Lblvc~{ Lblvc~ Nbahvgmznhb Mjgnbn{zvmznhb5z`l \"[" Aljlvmi Vl{lvql Fmbe ha [z" Ih|n{ mbj Cihfmi Anbmbknmi Jmzm slvl z`l{h|vkl{ ahv z l \"[" k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz jmzm5 mbj ghvzcmcl vmzl mbj f|jclz jlanknzjmzm slvl hfzmnblj avhg z`l Aljlvmi Vl{lvql Fmbe ha [z" Ih|n{"

Cvh{{ jhgl{znk tvhj|kz (CJT.) k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz (KM.) hni tvnkl{ (HT.)z`l \"[" jhiimv lpk`mbcl vmzl (L.) ghvzcmcl vmzl jmzm (G.) mbj z`l f|jclz jlanknz(FJ. slvl mbmi~ lj avhg z`l anv{z }|mvzlv ha =>3= z`vh|c` z`l ah|vz` }|mvzlv ha

Anc|vl ;FMIMBKL HB CHHJ[) K\VVLBZ MKKH\BZ FMIMBKL) F\JCLZ JLANKNZ) MBJ HNI

TVNKL[) 6444'6440(fmimbkl hb chhj{) k|vvlbz mkkh|bz fmimbkl) f|jclz jlankz) mbj hni tvnkl{ nb fniinhb{ ha

\"["* hb ilaz mpn{5 hni tvnkl nb * tlv fmvvli hb vnc`z mpn{.

Z@L VLKL[[NHB HA 6440 MBJ HNI TVNKL[ 3


9/32

6440" Nb z`l mbmi~{n{) CJT) (CJTz CJT z'= .5 KM) (KMz KMz'= .5 HT) (HTz HTz'= .5FJ) (FJ z FJ z'= .5 G) (G z Gz'= .5 mbj L) (Lz Lz'= . jmzm mvl |{lj"

Flahvl z`l ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb mbmi~{n{) zvmjnznhbmi |bnz'vhhz zl{z{ mvl tlvahvglj mbj sl zl{z ahv {zmznhbmvnz~ ha z`l {lvnl{" Z`n{ n{ ahiihslj snz` m Kmblv'@mb{lb |bnz'vhhz zl{z"6: Z`vh|c` z`n{ mbmi~{n{) bhbinblmvnz~ mbj z`l lpn{zlbkl ha bhbinblmv |bnz'vhhz n{ zl{zlj nb mkkhvjmbkl snz` z`l {z|j~ f~ G" Fnijnvnkn mbj M" Mit) s`nk` m{{lvz{z`l bllj ahv z`n{ tvhkl{{" 6< Ahv jlzmnilj nbahvgmznhb hb bhbinblmv |bnz'vhhz mbmi~{n{)z`l Kmblv'@mb{lb |bnz'vhhz zl{z) mbj z`l vmznhbmil {|tthvznbc z`n{ tvhklj|vl nbmtti~nbc z`l ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb) vlalv zh G" Fnijnvnkn mbj L" Mit"61 Nb z`n{ tmvz ha z l{z|j~) hbi~ z`l z`lhvlznkmi lptimbmznhb ha ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb snii fl vlqnlslj" Sllptmbj z l |{l ha z l F" @mb{lb mbj F" [lh ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb zl{z zh nbki|jl m km{ls`lvlf~ ghvl z`mb zsh qmvnmfil{ mvl mbmi~ lj"63 Nb inzlvmz|vl) z`lvl mvl gmb~ nb'{zmbkl{ ha zsh'qmvnmfil km{l{" @hslqlv) m z`vll'qmvnmfil km{l) ilmqnbc m{njl m als|b{mzn{amkzhv~ mzzlgtz{) n{ mbmi~ lj ahv z`l anv{z zngl nb z`n{ {z|j~ mbj {|ttinl{m khbzvnf|znhb zh z`l lpn{znbc fhj~ ha lkhbhglzvnk shve nb z`l anlij"

Lkhbhglzvnk Glz`hjhihc~Z`l Kmblv mbj @mb{lb \bnz'Vhhz Zl{z? Z`l glz`hj ahiihslj nb z`l G" Kmblv mbj F" @mb{lb {z|j~ n{ h|zinblj flihs" Z`l ZMV ghjlin{ jlanblj m{)

J ~z 7 | 4= pz = N z = 9 c a c % |46 pz = N z = c a c % l z ? =

Nb l}|mznhb (=.) nz n{ jlanblj m{pz = 7 ( ~z = v > z J ~z = " " "J ~z e . >" S`lvl z 7 =)" " ")Z mbj Nu"w n{ z`l nbjnkmzhv a|bkznhb" Nz n{ tvljnkzlj z`mzl z 5 n"n"j"lptvl{{l{ z`llvvhv zlvg" Ahv {hgl g =) _ z 7 ~z ~z g v z n{ mb nbzlv{lkznhb thnbz mbj jlzlvgnbn{znk khgthblbz{ qlkzhv s`nk` khqlv{ m inblmv zvlbj" _ z = n{ m tvl'jlzlvgnblj) anvg) {zmfil) mbj khbznb|h|{ jn{zvnf|znhb a|bkznhb mbj lvchjnkqmvnmfil" Z`l z`vl{`hij qmi|l c nb |bebhsb) nz n{ ihkmzlj nbc 6 C 7 Uc =) c 6 Wnbzlvqmi" Nb z`n{ nbzlvqmi ahv c = mbj c 6 T(_ z c =. 7 t = 2 4) T(_ z c 6 . 7 t 6 9 =vlimznhb{ kmb fl svnzzlb"

@lvl) z`l gmnb njlm n{ z`l z`vl{`hij laalkz mbj vl{zvnkznhb{ vlimzlj zh z`l |bnz'vhhz lpn{zlbkl" Z`l z`vl{`hij laalkz @ h?| = 7 | 6 n{ lpmgnblj f~ m khgth{nzl `~' thz`l{n{" Sl zl{z z`n{ `~thz`l{n{ f~ |{nbc z`l [zmbjmvj Smij {zmzn{znk{ S Z "

Nb z`l {lkhbj {zlt ha z`l mbmi~{n{) z`l lpn{zlbkl ha z`l |bnz vhhz n{ zl{zlj @ 4?v = 7v 6 7 4 mbj n{ l{zmfin{`lj" S`nil l}|mznhb (=. tmvmglzlv vl{zvnkznhb{ slvl qminj)v =mbj v 6 tmvmglzlv{ zl{z z`l {zmfninz~ ha z`l~z tvhkl{{" Nb z`n{ km{l)@ 4?v = 7 v 6 7 4`~thz l{n{ sm{ lpmgnblj" Na z l @ 4 `~thz l{n{ n{ mkkltzlj) l}|mznhb b|gflv (=. kmb flsvnzzlb m{ m {zmznhbmv~ ZMV ghjliJ ~z {zmznhbmv~ qmvnmfil" Nb z`n{ km{l) z l ~z qmvnmfil n{ahiihslj f~ N(=.) s`nk` `m{ m |bnz vhhz" [lvnl{ {zmznhbmvnz~ mbj lvchjnk nbv 7 = {tlknmi

km{lv = 9 4) v 6 9 4 mbj (= %v =. (=%v 6. 9 = n{ ghjmi {zmznhbmvnz~" Z l mizlvbmznql ha z l @ 4 `~thz`l{n{ kmb fl l{zmfin{`lj m{ @ =?v = 9 4 mbj v 6 9 4" F|z) z`lvl n{ m z`nvj km{l" Nbz`l tmvznmi |bnz'vhhz km{l)



10/32

@ 6?v = 9 4 mbj v 6 7 4 5

hv v = 7 4 mbj v 6 9 4 ?

09?

6

z`l `~thz`l{n{ n{ qminj" Na z`l@ 6 `~thz l{n{ n{ mkkltzlj) z`l ~z tvhkl{{ ghql{ inelm |bnz vhhz nb hbl vlcngl) f|z nb mbhz`lv vlcngl nz ahiihs{ m {zmfil tvhkl{{" Na z`l@ 6`~thz`l{n{ n{ mkkltzlj) z`l tvhkl{{ n{ bhz {zmfil5 ~lz) nz jhl{ bhz `mql m kim{{nk |bnz'vhhz tvhkl{{"

Z`l glz`hj |{lj zh zl{z z`l @ h `~thz`l{n{ n{ z`l Smij zl{z) s`nk` kmb fl |{lj zhzl{z z`l zv|l qmi|l ha z`l tmvmglzlv fm{lj hb z`l {mgtil l{zngmzl" Z`l |bvl{zvnkzlj mizlvbmznql n{v = 1 4 hv v 6 1 4" Z`l zl{z {zmzn{znk n{V6z 7 z 6= %z 66"

Nb z`n{ zl{z)z = mbj z 6 mvl z vmzl{ ahv Rv = mbj Rv 6) s`nk` mvl hfzmnblj avhg z`l

l{zngmzl ha l}|mznhb (=."@ = mbj @ 6 `~thz`l{l{ mvl hbl'{njlj mizlvbmznql{" Zsh'{njlj {zmzn{znk{ `mql il{{ thslv vlimznql zh hbl'{njlj zl{z"v = 9 4 mbj v 6 9 4 n{ m hbl'{njlj Smij {zmzn{znk{) s`nk` n{ m hbl'{njlj mizlvbmznql ha z`l@ 4 `~thz`l{n{ mbj kmb fl kmik|imzlj snz` V=Z 7 z 6= N Rv =94a c %z

66 N Rv 694a c"

Nb z`l vl{lmvk` f~ Kmblv mbj @mb{lb) nz sm{ jlzlvgnblj z`mz z`l V =Z mbj V 6Z zl{z{mvl ghvl thslva|i mcmnb{z z`l @ = mbj @6" Na z`l zl{z {zmzn{znk n{ {ncbnankmbz) z`l @4`~thz`l{n{) z`mz n{) z`l {lvnl{ `mqnbc m |bnz vhhz) n{ vlolkzlj) f|z zh kimvna~ s`lz`lv z`l@= `~thz`l{n{ hv @6 `~thz`l{n{ n{ qminj) z= s`nk` miihs{ hbl zh zl{z ahv z`l |bnz vhhz|bjlv zsh jnaalvlbz vlcngl{ hv {klbmvnh{flkhgl{ ngthvzmbz" Na hbl ha z`l{lz =

mbj z6 n{ qminj) nz glmb{ z`mz z`l @6 mizlvbmznql n{ khb{n{zlbz mbj nz cnql{ hbl z`lhtthvz|bnz~ zh gmel m k`hnkl mghbc z`l @ 4) @=) mbj @6 `~thz`l{l{"

Lkhbhglzvnk Glz`hjhihc~ZMV Khnbzlcvmznhb? Nb z`vl{`hij ghjli{) khnbzl'cvmznhb {z|jnl{ slvl khgfnblj snz` nbknjlbkl{ ha bhb'{zmznhbmvnz~ mbj bhb'inblmvnz~" Bhb'inblmv {tllj nb z|vbnbc zh fmimbkl mbj {nbcil l}|mznhb khnbzlcvmznhbvlimznhb n{ {lmvk`lj" Nb z`l {z|jnl{) m tvhkl{{ nb s`nk` z`l khnbzlcvmznhb vl'imznhb{`nt n{ lpmgnblj mbj s`lvl z`l lvvhv n{ blmv lvh mbj z`l lvvhv khvvlkznhb

glk`mbn{g mkz{ {ihsi~) sm{ mzzlgtzlj zh fl ghjlilj" B" Fmiel mbj Z" Ahgf~ |znin l z`l zsh'{zlt glz`hj mbj z`l Lbcil'Cvmbclv glz`hj jlqlihtlj ahv inblmv zngl {lvnl{" 60 Z`n{ glz`hj n{ |{lj nb jlzlkznbc z`llpn{zlbkl ha khnbzlcvmznhb vlimznhb{ nb bhb'inblmv zngl {lvnl{" Nb z`l blpz {zlt) mazlv lpmgnbnbc z`l lpn{zlbkl ha khnbzlcvmznhb) z`l fl`mqnhv ha z`l z`vl{`hij sm{ mbm'i~ lj mbj {`hsb z`mz z`l bhb'inblmvnz~ zl{z{ jlqlihtlj ahv m jh|fil ZMV (jh|filz`vl{`hij m|zhvlcvl{{nhb. kmb fl |{lj"

F" @mb{lb mbj F" [lh |{lj z`l gmpng|g'inelin`hhj (GI. tvhklj|vl) mbj f~z`n{ glz`hj) z`l ZMV ghjli sm{ tvljnkzlj mbj) mihbc snz` z`l michvnz`g |{lj)

zvnggnbc sm{ gmjl ahv z`l khnbzlcvmznhb qlkzhv mbj z`vl{`hij qlkzhv"6>

M glz`hj sm{ jlqlihtlj ahv zl{znbc z`l lpn{zlbkl ha m z`vl{`hij laalkz" Nb z`n{ sm~) z`lghjli flkhgl{ m inblmv qlkzhv lvvhv'khvvlkznhb ghjli (QLKG.) s`nk` kmb ilmj zh

Z@L VLKL[[NHB HA 6440 MBJ HNI TVNKL[ >


11/32

m flzzlv |bjlv{zmbjnbc ha z`l bmz|vl ha mb~ bhb'{zmznhbmvnz~ mghbc z`l jnaalvlbzkhgthblbz {lvnl{" Vlj|klj vmbe vlcvl{{nhb n{ l{zngmzlj |bjlv m b|ii `~thz`l{n{"Nb z`n{ km{l) m zl{z kmb fl l{zmfin{`lj mkkhvjnbc zh m Imcvmbcl g|izntinlv (IG. zl{z tvnbkntil" Na z`l z`vl{`hij tmvmglzlv n{ bhz jlzlvgnblj |bjlv z`l b|ii `~thz`l{n{)z`l mbmi~{n{ n{ khbznb|lj qnm m [|tIG zl{z"

Nb G" [lh{ {z|j~) inel z`l {z|jnl{ ha B" Fmiel mbj Z" Ahgf~ mbj F" @mb{lbmbj F" [lh) na z`l mizlvbmznql `~thz`l{n{ n{ ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb) m kvnznkn{g n{m{{lvzlj z`mz z`l thslv ha khbqlbznhbmi khnbzlcvmznhb zl{z{ kmb fl ihs" G" Tnt' tlbclv) C" Chlvnbc) mbj M" Zm~ihv mi{h glbznhblj z`n{ ih{{ ha thslv nb z`lnv {z|jnl{" ;4 Hz`lv mttinkmznhb{ mfh|z z`l ohnbz n{{|l{ ha bhb{zmznhbmvnz~ mbj bhb'inblmvnz~ mvl m{ ahiihs{? G" Sh`mv mbj B" Fmiel5 K" Fm|g lz mi"5 K" Fm|g mbj G" Emvm{|i|5 S" Lbjlv{ mbj F" Amie5 G" Ih mbj L" _nqhz5 G" Gmvzlb{ lz mi"5T" HKhbblii5 M" Zm~ihv5 T" C" O" HKhbblii mbj ["'O" Sln5 G" Hf{zalij mbj M" Zm~ihv5 mbj T" Gnk`mli lz mi";= Z`l ahiihsnbc mkmjlgnk vl{lmvk`lv{ mi{hlgtih~lj z`l @mb{lb mbj [lh z`vl{`hij qlkzhv lvvhv'khvvlkznhb ghjli (ZQLKG.zl{z? Z" Vhhz mbj J" Inlb5 H" Fmoh'V|fnh lz mi"5 B" M{imbnjn{ mbj C" Eh|vlzm{5 O"Cm{khncbl5 G" Kilglbz{m mbj M" Cmiqmh5 mbj Q" L{zlql lz mi";6 Nb z`n{ shve) sl`mql ngtvhqlj |thb z`l @mb{lb mbj [lh zl{z ahv z`vl{`hij khnbzlcvmznhb f~lptmbjnbc z`l b|ii `~thz`l{n{ nb m zsh'vlcngl ZQLKG ahv ghvl z`mb zshqmvnmfil{";;

Z`n{ tmtlv lpmgnbl{ z`l vlimznhb{`nt mghbc CJT) f|jclz jlanknz{) k|vvlbz

mkkh|bz jlanknz{) z`l lpk`mbcl vmzl) ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{) mbj hni tvnkl{ hb z`l fm{n{ ha z`l @mb{lb mbj [lh zl{z";: M{ nb z`lnv mttvhmk`) sl mi{h |{l z`l gmpng|ginelin`hhj l{zngmznhb (GIL. ha z`l z`vl{`hij ghjli" Z`l {lkhbj {zlt n{ zh zl{z ahv z`l tvl{lbkl ha m z`vl{`hij laalkz" \bjlv z`l b|ii `~thz`l{n{) z`l ghjli zvmb{ahvg{nbzh z`l inblmv QLKG"

Z`l zsh'vlcngl z`vl{`hij ghjli) s`lvl z`l c n{ z`l z`vl{`hij tmvmglzlv) zmel{z`l ahiihsnbc ahvg)

J pz 7 M4= P z = f %| =5 s z = f

c M46 P z = f %| =5 s z = f 2 c ;

s`lvl

P z = f 7

=s z = f

J pz =J pz 6

"""

J pz i

4FFFFFFD

=KKKKKKM

Z@L OH\VBMI HA LBLVC^ MBJ JLQLIHTGLBZ=4


12/32

Z`lvl mvl zsh vlcngl{ jlanblj f~ z`l lvvhv khvvlkznhb zlvg{ qmi|l" M{ jl{kvnflj nb @mb{lb mbj [lh) z`l tmvmglzlv{ M= mbj M6 mvl khlaanknlbz gmzvnkl{ mbj vl}|nvlz`l j~bmgnk{ nb z`l{l vlcngl{" ;< Na T(s z = c . `m{ z`l vlimznhb 4 9T(s z = c . 9 = )

z`n{ {ncbnanl{ z`l z`vl{`hij laalkz5 hz`lvsn{l z`l ghjli k`mvmkzlvn l{ inblmv khnb'zlcvmznhb" Z`l ahiihsnbc khb{zvmnbz mi{h n{ ahvglj)

t 4 T s z = c = t 4 :

s`lvl z`l zvnggnbc tmvmglzlv n{ t 4 2 4"@mb{lb mbj [lh tvhth{lj zsh `lzlvh{eljm{znk'khb{n{zlbz IG zl{z {zmzn{znk{ zh

zl{z s`lz`lv z`lvl n{ inblmv khnbzlcvmznhb |bjlv z`l b|ii mcmnb{z z`l mizlvbmznqlz`vl{`hij khnbzlcvmznhb" Na z`lvl n{ bh z`vl{`hij |bjlv z`l b|ii) z`l ghjli vlj|kl{

zh m khbqlbznhbmi inblmv QLKG" Z`l anv{z zl{z {zmzn{znk sh|ij fl |{lj s`lb z`l zv|lkhnbzlcvmznbc qlkzhv n{ ebhsb m tvnhvn mbj n{ jlbhzlj m{?

[|tIG 4 7 [|tc I c c \

IG f 4 5 c 5 ;3;10 J HT ':"34;:: 4"03KM(e. '4">3 4">; 4"03 '4">< 4">: 4"03HT(g. 4":4 4"33 4">< '4";HT(e. 4"01 4"1< 4"0> '=":6 4">0 4"36L(g. 6"04 4"43 4"=: '4"1: 4"03 4">;

L(e. 6"=4 4"=< 4";4 ="40 4":> 4"0 4">1 ="13 4":4 4"1;CJT(g. '6"3< 4">> 4">> ;"63 4"4< 4"=:CJT(e. '4"0; 4"06 4">> :"1: 4"44 4"44;G(g. 6"1; 4"4> 4"=> '6"16 4">> 4"=>G(e. ="04 4"60 4"


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Z`l ZMV Khnbzlcvmznhb Vl{|iz{? @hslqlv) z`l ZQLKG vlimznhb{ mvl l{zngmzlj ahv qmvnmfil{ ihbc'v|b vlimznhb{`nt{) s`nk` n{ qlv~ ngthvzmbz nb m{{l{{nbc z`lnv ihbclv'zlvg zlbjlbknl{" Z`vll ghjli{ mvl |znin lj nb z`n{ tvhkl{{" Nb z`l anv{zghjli) sl mbmi~ l z`l laalkz{ ha ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{ mbj hni tvnkl{ lphcl'bh|{i~5 lmvinlv nb h|v {z|j~ sl cmql z`l vl{|iz{ ha z`l mbmi~{n{ nb s`nk` z`l{lqmvnmfil{ mvl lbjhclbh|{" Z`|{) z`l anv{z mbj {lkhbj tmvz ha z`l {z|j~ khb{njlv{ z`lvlimznhb mghbc cvh{{ jhgl{znk tvhj|kz (CJT.) f|jclz jlanknz (FJ.) k|vvlbz mk'kh|bz jlanknz (KM.) hni tvnkl{ (HT.) lpk`mbcl vmzl (L.) mbj ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl(G. snz` ZQLK mbmi~{n{" Nb z`l z`nvj ghjli) z`l vlimznhb flzsllb k|vvlbz mkkh|bzjlanknz (KM. mbj hni tvnkl{ (HT.) lpk`mbcl vmzl{ (L. mbj hni tvnkl{ (HT.) k|vvlbzmkkh|bz jlanknz (KM. mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl{ (L.) mbj) anbmii~) z`l vlimznhb flzsllbk|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz (KM. mbj ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{ (G. mvl hf{lvqlj snz` tmnvsn{l ZQLK ghjli{" @hslqlv) z`l vlimznhb{`nt flzsllb f|jclz jlanknz{ (FJ.)cvh{{ jhgl{znk tvhj|kz (CJT.) mbj hni tvnkl{ (HT. snz` ghvzcmcl vmzl{ (G. mvl bhzmbmi~ lj"

Nb z`n{ {z|j~) z`l z`vll ZQLKG ghjli{ kmb fl jlbhzlj m{ ahiihs{)

Ghjli =?

J CJT z J FJ z

J KMz J L z

4FFFD

=KKKM

7 g = %m

=s z = % f = z = %C

=

J CJT z J FJ z

J KMz J L z

4FFFD

=KKKMz

%J G z %J HT %| =z 5

qz =

c

J CJT z J FJ z J KMz J L z

4FFFD

=KKKM

7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C =

J CJT z J FJ z J KMz J L z

4FFFD

=KKKM

%J G z %J HT z %| 6z 5 qz = 2 c

Ghjli 6?

J CJT z J FJ z J KMz J L z J HT z J G z

4FFFFFFD

=KKKKKKM

7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C =

J CJT z J FJ z J KMz J L z J HT z J G z

4FFFFFFD

=KKKKKKM

%| =z 5 qz = c

Z@L OH\VBMI HA LBLVC^ MBJ JLQLIHTGLBZ=:


16/32

J CJT z J FJ z J KMz J L

z J HT z J G z

4FFFFFFD

=KKKKKKM

7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C =

J CJT z J FJ z J KMz J L

z J HT z J G z

4FFFFFFD

=KKKKKKM

%| 6z 5 qz =2c

mbj Ghjli ;?

m J KMz

J HT z 7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C =

J KMz

J HT z %| =z 5 qz = c

J KMz J HT z 7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C = J KMz J HT z %| =z 5 qz = 2 c

f J L z J HT z 7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C = J L z J HT z %| =z 5 qz = c J L z J HT z 7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C = J L z J HT z %| =z 5 qz = 2 c

k J KMz J G z 7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C = J KMz J G z %| =z 5 qz = c

J KMz J G z 7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C = J KMz J G z %| =z 5 qz = 2 c

j J KMz J L z 7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C = J KMz J L z %| =z 5 qz = c

J KMz J L z 7 g = %m =s z = % f = z = %C = J KMz J L z %| =z 5 qz = 2 c

Nb z`n{ tmtlv) jnaalvlbz ghjli{ slvl |{lj zh mbmi~ l h|v lptlkzlj h|zkhgl{" Nbgh{z ha z`l ghjli{) nz sm{ {llb z`mz l{tlknmii~ z`l lvvhv khvvlkznhb amkzhv{ ha z~tnkmi vlcngl{) s`nk` khqlv mb ngthvzmbz tmvz ha z`l hf{lvqmznhb qmi|l{) slvlblcmznql mbj {zmzn{znkmii~ {ncbnankmbz" [h z`l lpn{zlbkl ha z`l khnbzlcvmznbc vl'

imznhb{`nt kmbbhz fl jlzlvgnblj"Z`l ngthvzmbz nbalvlbkl hfzmnblj avhg z`l{l ghjli{ n{ z`mz z`l ihbc'v|b vl'

imznhb{ flzsllb z`l qmvnmfil{ lpn{z snz` jnaalvlbz imc ilbcz`{" [h na z`l {`hke{ mvl

Z@L VLKL[[NHB HA 6440 MBJ HNI TVNKL[ =


17/32

mfhql m klvzmnb vmznh) vlz|vbnbc zh l}|ninfvn|g kmb fl mz jnaalvlbz ilqli{ ahv jna'alvlbz lkhbhgnk qmvnmfil{"

Mbhz`lv ngthvzmbz thnbz n{ z`l jnaalvlbkl flzsllb z`l z`vl{`hij qmi|l{ l{zn'gmzlj ahv z`l{l ghjli{) l{tlknmii~ nb z`l km{l ha z`l anv{z ghjli) s`nk` `m{ z`limvcl{z z`vl{`hij qmi|l ha 0; tlvklbz" M{ kmb fl {llb avhg h|v mbmi~{n{) z`l ghjli{z`mz cnql z`l vlimznhb{`nt flzsllb o|{z zsh lbjhclbh|{ qmvnmfil{ `mql m {gmiilv z`vl{`hij z`mb z`l anv{z ghjli" Z`n{ anbjnbc mi{h qlvnanl{ z`l vlinmfninz~ ha z`n{mbmi~{n{" Nb mjjnznhb) sl ihhelj mz z`l tmnvsn{l vlimznhb{ flzsllb z`l qmvnmfil{)s`nk` {`hs |{ z`l laalkz{ ha z`l kvn{l{ nb =>3:) =>3>) mbj 6440"

ZQLK Ghjli N? Ahv z`l anv{z tmvz ha z`l ZQLK mbmi~{n{) z`l khnbzlcvmznbc vl'imznhb{ ahv z`l anv{z (nb m vlkl{{nhb tlvnhj. mbj {lkhbj (mb lptmb{nhb tlvnhj. vl'cngl{ mvl cnqlb m{ ahiihs{?

CJT z 4? ;30 FJ z 4? >61 L z

CJT z 2 4 ? ;30 FJ z 4? >61 L z

Z`n{ ihbc'v|b vlimznhb {`hs{ z`mz nb fhz` vlcngl{ (lnz`lv mb lkhbhgnk vlkl{{nhbhv mb lptmb{nhb.) k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl{ maalkz CJT blcm'znqli~ mbj f|jclz jlanknz{ th{nznqli~" [ll mttlbjnp = ahv z`l khgtilzl ghjli"

Z`l laalkz hb CJT nb z`l {~{zlg) s`lvl z`l {ng|izmblh|{ vlimznhb n{ mbmi~ lj

snz` ah|v imc{) n{ tvl{lbzlj nb z`l anv{z l}|mznhb5 mb nbkvlm{l nb k|vvlbz mkkh|bzjlanknz (KM. th{nznqli~ maalkz{ CJT) l{tlknmii~ nb z`l anv{z vlcngl (m vlkl{{nhbmv~lkhbhgnk {nz|mznhb." J|vnbc m {ncbnankmbz vlkl{{nhbmv~ tlvnhj) mb nbkvlm{l nb z`l f|jclz jlanknz nbkvlm{l{ CJT) f|z z`n{ vlimznhb kmbbhz fl {llb nb mb lptmb{nhbmv~lkhbhgnk vlcngl (z`l {lkhbj vlcngl." Hni tvnkl{ th{nznqli~ maalkz CJT nb m vl'kl{{nhb) s`nil blcmznqli~ maalkznbc CJT nb mb lptmb{nhbmv~ lkhbhg~" Mbhz`lv qn{nfil h|zkhgl nb z`l ghjli n{ z`l vlimznhb{`nt flzsllb ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{(G. mbj CJT5 ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{ (G. laalkz CJT th{nznqli~ nb fhz` ha z`lvlcngl{ z`mz sl zl{zlj"

Nb z`l f|jclz jlanknz l}|mznhb) hni tvnkl{ `mj m jlkvlm{nbc laalkz hb f|jclzjlanknz{ nb m vlkl{{nhb) f|z mb nbkvlm{nbc laalkz nb mb lptmb{nhb vlcngl" [ngnimvi~)sl kmb {ll z`n{ vlimznhb{`nt mi{h lpn{z{ ahv k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ |bjlv fhz`vlkl{{nhbmv~ mbj lptmb{nhbmv~ lkhbhgnk vlcngl{"

ZQLK Ghjli NN? Nb z`l {lkhbj ZQLK mbmi~{n{nb s`nk` s`hil qmvnmfil{ mvllbjhclbh|{i~ mbmi~ ljz`l khnbzlcvmznbc vlimznhb{ ahv z`l anv{z (m vlkl{{nhbmv~lkhbhg~. mbj {lkhbj (mb lptmb{nhbmv~ lkhbhg~. vlcngl{ mvl?

CJT z 6? ;; FJ z 4? 3;> KMz % 4? 43


18/32

Z`l ihbc'v|b vlimznhb{`nt{ ~nlij {ngnimv vl{|iz{ zh z`l ZQLK Ghjli N mbmi~{n{ahv z`l k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz (KM. mbj f|jclz jlanknz (FJ. qmvnmfil{" S`nil z`llpk`mbcl vmzl (L. `m{ m th{nznql laalkz nb m vlkl{{nhb mbj m blcmznql hbl nb mb

lptmbjnbc lkhbhgnk {nz|mznhb (vlcngl."Nb z`l {lkhbj tmvz ha z`n{ mbmi~{n{ z`lvl mvl {zmzn{znkmii~ mbj lkhbhgnk nb'{ncbnankmbz tmvz{ (inel th{nznql lvvhv khvvlkznhb zlvg{." @hslqlv) z`l{l ghjli{ mvll{zngmzlj ahv khgtmvn{hb5 {ngnimv vlimznhb{`nt{ ahv {hgl ha z`l qmvnmfil{ kmb fl{llb snz` z`l ZQLK ghjli N" Mttlbjnp 6 tvhqnjl{ mb hqlvqnls ha z`l ZQLKghjli NN vl{|iz{ ahv z`l qmvnmfil{"

ZQLK Ghjli NNN? Nb ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb mbmi~{n{) z`l vlimznhb flzsllb k|vvlbzmkkh|bz jlanknz{ (KM. mbj hni tvnkl{ (HT.) lpk`mbcl vmzl{ (L. mbj hni tvnkl{ (HT.)k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ (KM. mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl{ (L. mbj) anbmii~) z`l vlimznhb flzsllb k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ (KM. mbj ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{ (G. mvl hf'{lvqlj" Z`l khnbzlcvmznhb vlimznhb flzsllb k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ (KM. mbj hni tvnkl{ (HT. n{ hfzmnblj m{~ z 7 KMz = 4">>HT z ahiihsnbc z`l gnbngn mznhb ha z`linelin`hhj a|bkznhb" Z`l l{zngmzlj z`vl{`hij qmi|l n{ Rc 7 4 ? 4 tlvklbzha z`l s`hil tlvnhj) s`lvlm{ z`l {lkhbj vlcngl khvvl{thbjlj hbi~ zh =4 tlvklbz"

Z`l anv{z vlcngl n{ mk`nlqlj {h z`mz) (z~tnkmi vlcngl. KMz

4">>HT z % 4"


19/32

Anv{z vlcngl lpzvlgl vlcngl ? L z 4? :4 HT z 4? 1= 66 tlvklbz

[lkhbj vlcngl z~tnkmi vlcngl ? L z 2 4? :4 HT z 4? 1= 30 tlvklbz

Z l vlimznhbflzsllb z l lpk`mbcl vmzl (L. mbj hni tvnkl{ (HT.sm{ kmik|imzljm{4":"S lbz l vlcnglgmcbnz|jl{slvl lpmgnblj) nz sm{ {llbz`mzz l anv{z (lpzvlgl. vlcnglsm{ 66 tlvklbz mbj z`l {lkhbj sm{ m z~tnkmi vlcngl snz` 30 tlvklbz" Nb z`n{ mbmi~{n{)s`lvl z`l ihbc'v|b vlimznhb{`nt ha z`l{l zsh qmvnmfil{ sm{ lpmgnblj) z`l z`vl{`hij qmi|l sm{ kmik|imzlj m{ '4"1=" Z l anv{z vlcngl sm{ kvlmzlj nb m {nz|mznhb s lvl z`l hni tvnkl{ slvl 1= tlvklbz ihslv z`mb z l lpk`mbcl vmzl" Z l {lkhbj vlcngl sm{ vlmin lj na z`l jnaalvlbkl flzsllb hni tvnkl{ mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl n{ il{{ z`mb 1= tlvklbz"

Z`l ZQLK ghjli NNN vl{|iz{ ha z`l vlimznhb{`nt flzsllb k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jla'nknz{ mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl kmb fl {llb nb mttlbjnp ;" Z`l ihbc'v|b vlimznhb{`nt fl'

zsllb k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz (KM. mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl (L. sm{ hfzmnblj m{ 4"36)mbj z`l l{zngmzlj z`vl{`hij qmi|l sm{ 4"3


20/32

Z`l vlimznhb z`mz sm{ hfzmnblj avhg z`l ZQLK ghjli{ {`hs{ z`mz ghvzcmclnbzlvl{z vmzl{ maalkz k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz th{nznqli~ nb anv{z vlcngl f|z blcmznqli~nb {lkhbj vlcngl"

Khbki|{nhb

M{ m vl{|iz) nz kmb fl {zmzlj z`mz CJT) hni tvnkl{) k|vvlbz mkkh|bz mbj f|jclzjlanknz{) ghvzcmcl vmzl{) mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl{ mvl vlimzlj" S`lb k|vvlbz mkkh|bz mbj f|jclz jlanknz{ nbkvlm{l) hni tvnkl{ mvl maalkzlj" Z`l{l laalkz{ mvl hf{lvqlj mbj lptlvnlbklj tvnhv zh mbj j|vnbc z`l =>3: kvn{n{) z`l =>3> kvn{n{) mbj z`l 6440 cvlmzvlkl{{nhb" Ahv z`l tlvnhj avhg Omb|mv~ =>3= z`vh|c` Omb|mv~ 6440) z`l vlimznhb'{`nt mghbc CJT) z`l f|jclz jlanknz) z`l k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz) z`l lpk`mbcl vmzl)

hni tvnkl{) mbj ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{ nb z`l \bnzlj [zmzl{ slvl lpmgnblj f~ ZMV |bnz'vhhz) ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb) mbj ZQLK mbmi~{l{"

Nb z`l anv{z mbj gmnb tmvz ha z`l lkhbhglzvnk mbmi~{n{) z`l l{zngmznhb vl{|iz{ {`hsz`l vlimznhb mghbc CJT) f|jclz jlanknz{) k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{) mbj z`l lpk`mbclvmzl" Z`l ihbc'v|b vlimznhb flzsllb z`l{l qmvnmfil{ sm{ mbmi~ lj snz` ZMV khnb'zlcvmznhb mbmi~{n{" Z`n{ mbmi~{n{ {`hslj z`mz nb tlvnhj{ ha lkhbhgnk lptmb{nhb) mbnbkvlm{l nb z`l k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz mbj hni tvnkl{ maalkz{ CJT th{nznqli~" Mbhz`lv ngthvzmbz vlimznhb qn{nfil avhg z`n{ mbmi~{n{ sm{ z l th{nznql laalkz ha hni tvnkl{ hb z l f|jclz jlanknz nb tlvnhj{ ha vlkl{{nhb" Z`l {lkhbj tmvz ha h|v mbmi~{n{ haalvlj mbl{zngmznhb ghjli ha z l vlimznhb{ mghbc CJT) f|jclz jlanknz{) k|vvlbz mkkh|bzjlanknz{) z`l lpk`mbcl vmzl) hni tvnkl{ mbj ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{ qmvnmfil{ ahv khgtmvn{hb" Z`l z`nvj tmvz ha z`l mbmi~{n{ ghjlilj z`l ihbc'v|b tmnvsn{l vlimznhb{ flzsllb k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ mbj hni tvnkl{) z`l lpk`mbcl vmzl mbj hni tvnkl{)k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ mbj ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{) mbj k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl{" Z l ihbc'v|b vlimznhb{ {`hs z`mz mb nbkvlm{l nb hni tvnkl{ `m{m blcmznql laalkz z`mz jlkvlm{l{ k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{" Mbhz`lv tmnvsn{l ihbc'v|bvlimznhb {`hs{ z`l blcmznql vlimznhb flzsllb hni tvnkl{ mbj th{nznql vlimznhb flzsllbk|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ snz` z`l lpk`mbcl vmzl" Anbmii~) m ihbc'v|b vlimznhb {`hs{ z`lblcmznql laalkz ha ghvzcmcl nbzlvl{z vmzl{ hb z`l k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz"

BHZL[

=Km{l~ G|iincmb mbj I|el Z`vlnblb) Gmvelz Vl{thb{l{ zh z`l Tmbnk ha 6440) BFLV Shvenbc Tmtlv bh" =:::1) Kmgfvnjcl) Gm{{mk`|{lzz{) Bmznhbmi F|vlm| ha Lkhbhgnk Vl{lmvk`(BFLV.) Hkzhflv 6440"

6Mzna Gnmb) Mgnv [|an) mbj Avmbkl{kh Zvlffn) Z`l Thinznkmi Lkhbhg~ ha z`l \"[" GhvzcmclJlam|iz Kvn{n{) BFLV Shvenbc Tmtlv bh" =::10) Kmgfvnjcl) Gm{{mk`|{lzz{) Bmznhbmi F|vlm| ha Lkhbhgnk Vl{lmvk` (BFLV.) 6440) mbj Cnhqmbbn JliiMvnkkn) Jlbn Ncmb) mbj I|k Imlqlb)Kvljnz Fhhg{ mbj Ilbjnbc [zmbjmvj{? Lqnjlbkl avhg z`l [|ftvngl Ghvzcmcl Gmvelz) ShvenbcTmtlv bh" 40 =41) Sm{`nbczhb) J"K") Nbzlvbmznhbmi Ghblzmv~ A|bj) Mtvni 6440"

Z@L VLKL[[NHB HA 6440 MBJ HNI TVNKL[ =>


21/32

; Tm|i Gn lb) Z`l Kvljnz Kv|bk` ha 6443'6440? M Jn{k|{{nhb ha z`l Fmkecvh|bj) GmvelzVlmkznhb{) mbj Think~ Vl{thb{l{)Z`l Aljlvmi Vl{lvql Fmbe ha [z" Ih|n{ Vlqnls ) [ltzlgflvHkzhflv 6440) tt" 00) tmcl{ 6=='=>"

=; Gh`{lb Fm`gmbn'H{ehhll) Laalkz{ ha z`l \"[" Chqlvbglbz F|jclz Jlanknz{ hb nz{ K|vvlbzMkkh|bz? Mb Lgtnvnkmi Nb}|nv~)]|mvzlvi~ Vlqnls ha Lkhbhgnk{ mbj Anbmbkl ) snbzlv =>0>) tt" 31'>="

=: Oh`b J" Mflii) Jlalbkl [tlbjnbc mbj \blgtih~glbz Vmzl{? Mb Lgtnvnkmi Mbmi~{n{ Jn{'mccvlcmzlj f~ Vmkl) Kmgfvnjcl Oh|vbmi ha Lkhbhgnk{ ) Jlklgflv =>>4) tt" :4


22/32

=1 Khig Elmvbl~ mbj Gl`jn Ghbmjolgn) An{kmi Think~ mbj K|vvlbz Mkkh|bz Tlvahvgmbkl?Nbzlvbmznhbmi Lqnjlbkl hb z`l Zsnb Jlanknz{"Oh|vbmi ha Gmkvhlkhbhgnk{) {tvnbc =>>4) tt" =>3'6=>"

=3 Tm|i Lqmb{) Jh F|jclz Jlanknz{ Maalkz z`l K|vvlbz Mkkh|bz8 H`nh [zmzl \bnqlv{nz~) =>>4(gnglhcvmt`lj.5 Smizlv Lbjlv{ mbj Fhbc'[hh Ill) K|vvlbz Mkkh|bz mbj F|jclz Jlanknz{? Zsnb{hv Jn{zmbz Kh|{nb{8Vlqnls ha Lkhbhgnk{ mbj [zmzn{znk{)M|c|{z =>>4) tt" ;3;'0=5 Q" C" Jlsmij mbj G" \imb) Z`l Zsnb Jlanknz{ Nii|{nhb) Kmzh Oh|vbmi ) qhi" >) bh" ; (=>>4.) tt" 10>'3435 Miavlj M" @m|c) Vnkmvjnmb L}|nqmilbkl) Vmznhbmi Lptlkzmznhb{) mbj Tlvgmblbz Nbkhgl @~thz`l{n{) Oh|vbmi ha Ghbl~) Kvljnz mbj Fmbenbc) M|c|{z =>>4) tt" ;4) Kmgfvnjcl) Gm{{mk`|{lzz{) Bmznhbmi F|vlm| ha LkhbhgnkVl{lmvk` (BFLV.) 644'31) mqmnimfil mz `zzt? sss"bflv"hvc k`mtzlv{ k4=63"

=> [lfm{znmb Ljsmvj{) Kmtnzmi Khbzvhi{) [|jjlb [zht{ mbj K|vvlbz Mkkh|bz Vlqlv{mi{) BFLV Shvenbc Tmtlv bh" ===34) Kmgfvnjcl) Gm{{mk`|{lzz{? Bmznhbmi F|vlm| ha Lkhbhgnk Vl{lmvk`(BFLV.) Gmvk` 644


23/32

[zmzl{ mbj L|vhtlmb \bnhb nbzh jh|fil jncnz b|gflv{ nb vlmi zlvg{" Tmvznk|imvi~ nb z`l \bnzlj [zmzl{) nbzlvl{z vmzl{ (hqlv z`l 644= zh 644: tlvnhj. nbkvlm{lj z`l vlmi l{zmzl tvnkl{ mbj z`l{lnbkvlm{lj vlmi l{zmzl tvnkl{ z`lg{liql{ amkninzmzlj bls kvljnz ilbjnbc" Nb 6446) nb mb mzzlgtz zh fhi{zlv z`l \"[" lkhbhg~ qnm z`l khb{zv|kznhb {lkzhv) bls mvvmbclglbz{ slvl gmjl mbj {|ftvnglghvzcmcl htthvz|bnznl{ tvhinalvmzlj" Z`n{ ilj zh m cvhsz` nb ihs'}|minanlj kvljnz ilbjnbc kmiilj BNBOM (Bh Nbkhgl) Bh Ohf) Bh M{{lz{. ilbjnbc" Z`|{) zh fl mfil zh cnql ghvl ihmb{) nbql{zglbz fmbe{ {hij z`l lpn{znbc kvljnz jlfz{ ({lk|vnzn mznhb. mbj tvhqnjlj bls {h|vkl{ mbj bls kvljnz{ zhvltimkl z`l{l" Snz` z`l laalkz ha jlkvlm{lj vn{e {lb{nznqnz~) fmbe{ |bjlvzhhe gmb~ ha z`l{l tvhanz'ahk|{lj zvmb{mkznhb{) f|z snz` slme nb{tlkznhb) ahiihs'|t) vlkhvjnbc) mbj hqlv{nc`z" Mz z`n{ thnbz)m qlv~ ngthvzmbz tvhfilg jlqlihtlj? z`l{l z~tl{ ha m{{lz{ mbj fhbj{ jnj bhz `mql m {lkhbjmv~gmvelz mbj slvl bhz nb{tlkzlj {|aanknlbzi~5 {h z`mz) |izngmzli~) z`l vn{e{ |bjlvzmelb f~ z`l{l lbznznl{slvl bhz tvnklj khvvlkzi~"

6: Gl`glz Kmblv mbj Fv|kl L" @mb{lb) Z`vl{`hij M|zhvlcvl{{nhb{ snz m \bnz Vhhz) Lkhbhglzvnkm) Bhqlgflv 644=) tt" =>3) tt" 163':'>0.) tt" >5K`vn{zht`lv A" Fm|g mbj Glvmi Emvm{|i|) Ghjliinbc Aljlvmi Vl{lvql Jn{kh|bz Think~) Khg' t|zmznhbmi Lkhbhgnk{) Mtvni =>>0) tt" >0) tt" =3='015 Gnbc K`nlb Ih mbj Lvnk _nqhz)Z`vl{`hij Khnbzlcvmznhb mbj Bhbinblmv Mjo|{zglbz zh z`l Ims ha Hbl Tvnkl) Gmkvhlkhbhgnk J~bmgnk{ ) [ltzlgflv 644=) tt" >0) tt" 6:>0) tt" 3=>


24/32

Jnaalvlbkl{ Mkvh{{ \"[" Knznl{ Mvl Mvfnzvmclj) BFLV Shvenbc Tmtlv bh" 140>) Kmgfvnjcl)Gm{{mk`|{lzz{) Bmznhbmi F|vlm| ha Lkhbhgnk Vl{lmvk` (BFLV.) O|i~ =>>35 G" Hf{zalij mbj M" G"Zm~ihv) Bhbinblmv M{tlkz{ ha Chhj{ Gmvelz Mvfnzvmcl mbj Mjo|{zglbz? @lke{k`lv{ Khgghjnz~Thnbz{ Vlqn{nzlj)Oh|vbmi ha z`l Omtmbl{l mbj Nbzlvbmznhbmi Lkhbhgnl{) Jlklgflv =>>3) tt" ::= 3>5 mbj) T" Gnk`mli) V" Bhfm~) mbj J" M" Tlli) Zvmb{mkznhb{ Kh{z{ mbj Bhbinblmv Mjo|{zglbz nbVlmi Lpk`mbcl Vmzl{? Mb Lgtnvnkmi Nbql{zncmznhb)Oh|vbmi ha Thinznkmi Lkhbhg~) Mtvni =>>3) tt"0163>"

;6 Z`hgm{ @" Vhhz mbj Jhbmij Inlb) Khbqlvclbkl zh z`l Ihbc'V|b L}|ninfvn|g? Z`l Km{l ha Bmz|vmi Cm{ Gmvelz{)Lblvc~ Lkhbhgnk{ ) qhi" 6=) bh" 6 (644;.) tt" >;15 Qnklbzl L{zlql)[miqmjhv Cni'Tmvlom) Oh{l Mbzhbnh Gmvzbl '[lvvmbh) mbj Vmamli Iihvkm'Qnqlvh) Z`vl{`hij Khnbzlcvmznhb mbj Bhbinblmv Mjo|{zglbz Flzsllb Chhj{ mbj [lvqnkl{ Nbaimznhb nb z`l \bnzlj [zmzl{)Lkhbhgnk Ghjliinbc ) Jlklgflv 6441) tt" =4;;'4;>5 mbj) F" @mb{lb mbj F" [lh) ht" knz"

;; F" @mb{lb mbj F" [lh) ht" knz"

;: Nfnj"

;< Nfnj"

Z@L VLKL[[NHB HA 6440 MBJ HNI TVNKL[ 6;


25/32

Mttlbjnp =

ZQLK GHJLI N? L[ZNGMZLJ AHV CVH[[ JHGL[ZNK TVHJ\KZ (CJT.) F\JCLZJLANKNZ[ (FJ.) K\VVLBZ MKKH\BZ JLANKNZ[ (KM.) MBJ LPK@MBCL VMZL[ (L.

Z@L OH\VBMI HA LBLVC^ MBJ JLQLIHTGLBZ6:


26/32

Mttlbjnp = (khbznb|lj.




27/32





28/32





29/32

M t t l b j n p 6

Z Q L K G H J L I N N V L [ \ I Z [

J C J T

J C J T

J F J

J F J

J K M

J K M

J L

J L

J G

J G

J H T

J H T

i

4 " 0 ;

i 2 4 " 0 ;

i

4 " 0 ;

i 2 4 " 0 ;

i

4 " 0 ;

i 2 4 " 0 ;

i

4 " 0 ;

i 2 4 " 0 ;

i

4 " 0 ;

i 2 4 " 0 ;

i 4

" 0 ;

i 2 4 " 0 ;

L v v h v

4 " 4 < 6

4 " 4 = 3

' 4 " ;

: 4

= = " :

4

4 " 6 1 1

' 4 " 6

3 6

4 " 4 4 :

' = " ;

4 >

4 " = ; 1 0 =

' 4 " =

6

; > .

( 4 " =

: 3 .

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=

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=

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30/32

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1 .

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;

4 " 4 4 4

4 " 4 4

"The Great Recession of 2008 and Oil Prices" by Melike E. Bildirici, Elçin A. Alp, and Tahsin Bakiritas

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