The Great Big Developer Ecosystem Battle 2011 IDC Oct-11 Web Ecosystem Drilldown History of challenges for standards-efforts –Webkit breakthrough –Scramble for Apple competition

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The Great Big Developer Ecosystem Battle

Al Hilwa

Program Director

Application Development Software

Oct-11© 2011 IDC2

Agenda

1. Trends

2. Market

3. Surveys

4. Predictions

5. Guidance

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 3

Business Context for App Dev

Consumerization of IT– Mobile devices

– Social networking

– Consumer cloud services

Data Explosion– Tracking, profiles, behaviors, locations, sensors, …

– Content growth, crowd sourcing, video

App platform vs tools– Runtimes are closer to user value

– Bigger opportunity, more users than developers

Indirect monetization

– Tools as platform enablers, and loss-leaders

– Advertising

– AD-as-a-Service

– Open source pressure

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 4

Technical Context for App Dev

The VM-language revolution is almost played-out, esp on the client

– Value: automatic memory, exception handling, strong typing

– Performance, determinism and control remain challenges

– Native (C/C++) still primary language for ISV products

The framework changed everything– Inversion of Control & Dependency Injection now established paradigm

– Successful frameworks (e.g. Spring, Rails, Dojo..) reach critical mass

– Shift to light-weight frameworks

Rise of scripting languages – return of RAD– Productivity and simplicity to bridge complexity

– Narrowing performance gap

– Late-binding seen as more flexible and agile

– Declarative and imperative blending

Configuration-based techniques cannibalize traditional development– E.g. BPM, portal mashups, domain specific languages,…

Oct-11© 2011 IDC

Application Architectures:A Historical Perspective

Distributed application architecture continues to evolve. Logic

and data complexity is increasingly on both clients and servers

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Servers

Mainframes

Clients

Text Terminals

(e.g. VT-100

IBM 3270/5250)

Servers

File-servers,

RDBMSs

Clients

PC Applications

Servers

DB stored

procedures,

Clients

Forms, RAD (e.g.

PowerBuilder)

Servers

Web servers,

App Servers

Clients

HTML Browsers,

RIA Plug-ins

(e.g. Flash,

Silverlight),

Servers

Cloud Platforms

Clients

Smartphones,

Tablets, HTML5

2020

5

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 6

Transformations in Software:The Front-End

The UI: Lynchpin to consumer revolution– Content is the new computing

– Social everything

– Touch revolution

– Web architecture dominates – RIA goes HTML5/JS

– Hardware acceleration

Mobility goes mainstream– PC goes mobile

– Sensor explosion

– Smaller apps, bigger runtimes

– App stores and the broadening of app monetization

– Rich developer analytics

– Hard choices: native vs Web

Oct-11© 2011 IDC

Transformations in Software:The Back-End

7

PaaS: cloud platforms scramble to back the front-end

– Programmable provisioning and deployment

– Elasticity and the economics of incrementalism

– Built-in disaster recovery & application availability

– Competing paradigms: virtualization vs multi-tenancy

Development in the cloud maturing rapidly

– Lifecycle in the cloud: build mgmt, open source code analysis,

bug-tracking, project mgmt, style/pattern/component stores,

team collaboration, browser testing, stress testing

– Coming Soon: rich cloud IDEs

Devices & Social generate data – big data

– Content as data (CouchDB, MongoDB)

– No-SQL, schema in the app (Redis)

– Mapping and reducing (Hadoop)

Oct-11© 2011 IDC

Transformations in Software:The Battle of Ecosystems

8

Mobile and cloud platforms build on existing ecosystems

– C/C++ for iOS

– Java for Android

– .NET for Windows Phone & Windows 8

– Web the default for all the others

Race to leverage and expand ecosystems

– Technology alignments and re-alignments

– Battle for developer services: tools, rich platforms, advertising,

payment processing, analytics, marketing support

– Marketplaces for applications & content

Enterprises leverage established ecosystems

– Shortages of enterprise developers

– Ecosystems bridge consumer/enterprise divide

– Consumer clouds attract smaller enterprises, large to follow

Oct-11© 2011 IDC

Web Ecosystem Drilldown

History of challenges for standards-efforts

– Webkit breakthrough

– Scramble for Apple competition

– Video standard ambiguity

HTML5: umbrella for multiple standards

– JavaScript plays starring role (Canvas, Webworker, CSS3 …)

– Standard bodies move faster than ever

Scripting is a key ingredent

– JavaScript, PHP and Ruby are fastest growing languages

– JavaScript being adopted on the server

– Back to the future with RAD languages

– RAD emphasizes client/server synergies

Plug-ins play supporting role

– Pushed to the high-end, evolving into cross-platform runtimes

– Apply heat on standards

9

Oct-11© 2011 IDC

HTML5 Timeline

2011 Desktop & Mobile browsers ship HTML5-capable releases

2016 HTML5-capable desktop browsers reach 90% penetration

HTML5

Nirvana

2010 Major browsers work on implementing HTML5

Google completes On2 acquisition, releases OS license for V8 and WebM

2009

2014 HTML5-capable mobile device installed base reach 90% penetration

… but, Video Codec Wars

continue with WebM

versus H.264 …

Google announces On2 acquisition

Oct-11© 2011 IDC

HTML5 Vs. Plug-ins

HTML Web

Applications

2010 2015

HTML/HTML5 Web

Applications

Increased Richness

Increased Interactivity

Sophisticated Animation

Higher Pixel Fidelity

Special Image/Text Effects

Plug-in

Architectures

(e.g. Flash/Silverlight)

Plug-in

Architectures

(e.g. Flash/Silverlight)

HTML5 will Replace HTML

Plug-ins Continue to Dominate the High-end

Conceptual Pyramids

of all web applications

Oct-11© 2011 IDC12

Agenda

1. Trends

2. Market

3. Surveys

4. Predictions

5. Guidance

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 13

Worldwide AD Vendor RevenueVendor Eye-chart

Source: IDC May 2011

Company2010 Rev.

Company (Cont.)2010 Rev.

Company (Cont.)2010 Rev.

Company (Cont.)2010Rev.

IBM 2,243 Quest Software 28.6 Troux Technologies 13.8 Dell 7.0

Microsoft 1,020 Unisys 27.7 Digital Fuel 13.8 Software FX 6.8

HP 859 VMware 26.4 Corticon 13.5 WebLayers Inc. 6.5

CA Technologies 712 Hitachi 26.4 Casewise 13.1 Xceed 6.4

Compuware 334 iRise 25.9 Altova 12.7 Mainsoft 6.4

Adobe 293 Mentor Graphics 25.9 Versata 12.5 Transoft 6.4

Oracle 280 Infragistics Corp. 25.7 Polaris Software Lab 12.4 Bison 6.3

Software AG 271 Dynatrace 25.0 Cincom Systems Inc. 11.4 LongJump 6.3

Micro Focus 240 Rally Software Development Corp. 22.6 DMTI Spatial Inc. 11.3 Aspose 6.2

Serena 179 Rogue Wave Software 22.0 AccuRev 10.9 Backbase 6.0

Amazon.com Inc. 118 Progress Software Corp. 21.3 GrapeCity 10.8 Silicon Graphics 6.0

SAS 98 The Salamander Organization 20.9 Metaware 10.5 Empress Software 5.9

Salesforce.com 95 Unicom Systems 20.2 Security Innovation Inc. 10.2 Prima Solutions 5.8

SAP 60 Telerik 20.0 JetBrains 10.2 Interactive Objects 5.7

FICO (formerly Fair Isaac) 58 NEC 19.4 TechExcel Inc. 10.0 Google Inc. 5.6

MKS 51 Aldon 19.3 Prolifics 9.9 Perpetuum Software 5.5

Atlassian 49 Klocwork 19.0 Blueprint 9.4 RadView Software 5.4

Intel Corp. (incl. Wind River) 49 Black Duck Software Inc. 18.5 Intuit 9.4 Visible Systems Corp. 5.3

Fujitsu 48 OPNET 18.4 TIBCO 9.1 Sonoa Systems 5.3

Perforce Software 46 ASG 18.3 Veracode 9.0 Interfacing Technologies 5.1

BluePhoenix Solutions 45 Four Js Development Tools Inc. 17.8 JackBe 8.4 Sencha 5.1

Embarcadero Technologies 44 Mega International 17.6 WS02 8.4 Northgate Information Solutions 5.0

Flexera Software 41 Developer Express 17.4 Alfabet 8.4 Palamida 4.8

CAST Software 39 Infinite Software 16.8 Servoy 7.8 /n software 4.7

Coverity 38 Zend Technologies Inc. 16.3 MetaCase 7.8 Hubspan 4.6

Parasoft 37 Netron Inc. 16.2 Syncfusion 7.8 Innovations Software Technology 4.5

Empirix 36 ComponentOne 15.9 Appirio 7.5 InRule Technology 4.5

Pegasystems 35 Atego 15.3 Ateras 7.5 Nexaweb 4.4

Magic Software Enterprises Inc. 32 Metastorm 15.1 Information Builders Inc. 7.1 SOA Software Inc. 4.2

CollabNet 31 Dundas Data Visualization 14.3 EZLegacy 7.1 Object Connections 4.2

Other 2,014

Market Total (US$) 10,579

Oct-11© 2011 IDC14

Agenda

1. Trends

2. Market

3. Surveys

4. Predictions

5. Guidance

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 15

2011 Professional Developer ModelMethodology

Objective

Model & Forecast # of professional developers based on data

Approach

Collect benchmark data in key countries

– US, Canada, UK, Germany, China, Russia, India

Select an appropriate “driver” variable for model

– Relationship to professional developers

– Available country level data

– Developers = Function(Tertiary School Education)

IDC Forecast methodology for 2010-2015

Source:/Notes:

Oct-11© 2011 IDC

2010 Professional Developer ModelResults

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gro

wth

Develo

pers

(M

)

2010 Downside Forecast 2010 Upside Forecast 2010 Forecast 2010 Growth

16

9.9 mil developers in 2010

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 17

2011 US Developer Survey

Source:/Notes:

Where do you work?

US based survey with skew towards midsize and smaller companies

~ 54% are internal enterprise developers

~28% are outsourced/contractdevelopers

Other Information

58% work in companies with 5,000 or smaller employees N=400

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 18

2011 ADS US Developer Survey: Developer Team Size

Source:/Notes:

How big is the team of developers you work in?

~ 15% of developers work in teams > 10 members

~ 60% of developers work on teams <= 5 members

N=400

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 19

2011 ADS US Developer Survey: Front-end vs Back-end

Source:/Notes:

Split your development time by type of code:

Front-end code

~ 54% of developer time

N=400

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 20

2011 ADS US Developer Survey:Mobile Development Mix

Source:/Notes:

How many years have you been developing mobile applications?

Percentage spending >= 10% time doing Mobile Development

Mobile Development is exploding

N=100

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 21

2011 ADS US Developer Survey: IDE Usage Preference

Visual Studio is popular even for non Microsoft languages

NetBeans is significantly more popular than Jdeveloper or IBM RAD

Source:/Notes:

Which IDEs do you prefer to use? (multiple allowed)

N=400

All Java IDEs

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 22

2011 ADS US Developer Survey: Ecosystem Affiliation

Source:/Notes:

Which ecosystems do you affiliate with? (select all that apply)

Web/Scripting & Database eco-systems are the largest

Microsoft’s broader eco-system is larger than Java’s

Compiled languages remain a significant

N=400

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 23

2011 ADS US Developer Survey: Ecosystem Purity

Source:/Notes:

What is the degree of multiple ecosystem affiliation?

Web/Scripting ecosystem members are much more diverse

Older ecosystems have lowest cross-over factors

N=400

Oct-11© 2011 IDC24

Agenda

1. Trends

2. Market

3. Surveys

4. Predictions

5. Guidance

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 25

2011 Key AD Predictions

1. Application development goes mobile.

Web development shifts to HTML5. Plug-ins move to the high-end.

Web apps begin to bridge desktop and mobile.

2. The platform is not enough. Platform vendors will build out their public cloud

ecosystems to demonstrate their platform effectiveness and driving improved

solutions for customers.

3. Dev/Ops Divide Begins to Erode: Business costs resulting from schisms

between development and operations teams, deployment complexity and the

need to leverage cloud benefits will drive adoption & combined offerings from

key vendors during 2011-13, enabling coordination and effective hand-offs.

4. App stores become essential as platform ISVs use them to attract developers

and validate their technology stacks, driven by common infrastructure benefits

(monetization, analytic feedback, …).

5. Big Data becomes a big deal. Data analytics, data warehouse, and data

integration vendors will introduce Big Data solutions

Source:/Notes:

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 26

2012 Top 10 AD Predictions – Early Preview

1. Future application platform ecosystems coalesce into major groups

2. Desktop and Mobile development begin to converge

3. RIA shifts to HTML5, matures for mobile

4. Application marketplaces become the primary means of software distribution

5. Enterprise mobility begins to gain momentum, B2C and ISV apps lead

6. Public cloud platforms become mainstream for consumer apps, make

inroads in small enterprises but not yet larger enterprises

7. Java & .NET workloads begin move to the cloud

8. The gap in user experience widens across the firewall

9. Social-integration becomes key component of user interface design

10. Smart TV app platforms try again – leveraging the same ecosystems

26

Oct-11© 2011 IDC27

Agenda

1. Trends

2. Market

3. Surveys

4. Predictions

5. Guidance

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 28

Essential Guidance For Users

Check-list:

What should we adopt for client-side development?

– Web versus Native?

– What are the B2C app needs? Who should build them?

– Should B2E apps be modernized? What is the Windows 8 strategy?

– Is HTML5 ready? Are users on the latest browsers?

What should be used for server-side development?

– Is .NET ready for the enterprise? Is it strategic on the server?

– Is Java evolving quickly enough? Are lightweight frameworks good-enough?

– Are dynamic languages adequate?

What is the enterprise strategy for Open Source?

– Is Open Source safe? What tools can help?

What is the enterprise strategy for Mobile devices?

– How should BYOD be handled? Are multi-platform mobile tools appropriate?

Are you leveraging social networking in your applications?

Oct-11© 2011 IDC 29

Questions

For more information on the Application Development Software CIS and published

research please visit, http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P644

Al Hilwa, Program Director

[email protected]