The GLOBIOM model & ERD team: an overview - REDD-PAC · 2014. 10. 6. · REDD-PAC: Assessment of reference levels for future deforestation in Brazil and in the Congo basin and of

The GLOBIOM model & ERD team: an overview

Petr Havlík &ERD group + collaborators Ecosystems Services and Management Program www.globiom.org

GLOBIOM training, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 8th September 2014

IIASA Founded in 1972 to use scientific

cooperation to build bridges across the Cold War divide

Non-governmental institute: 22

National Member Organizations representing Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas

Construction and exploration of models of complex socio-economic and environmental systems to answer global challenges

International interdisciplinary staff of ~150 Researchers

Laxenburg, (close toVienna), Austria

2

IIASA-ESM-ERD

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Programs

Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)

Ecosystem Services and Management (ESM)

Energy

Transitions to new technologies (TNT)

Evolution and Ecology

Mitigation of Air pollution

Risk, policy and vulnerability (RPV)

World population (POP)

Water

ESM groups

Earth Observation Systems (EOS)

Agro-environmental systems (AES)

Forest Ecosystems Management (FEM)

Methods for economic decision making under uncertainty (MEDU)

Environmental Resources and Development (ERD)

ESM tools

Geo-Wiki

EPIC

G4M

Exploration tools

GLOBIOM

ESM team

EOS

ERD-FEM

MEDU

Management

ESM Director and Deputy

AES

ESM Research questions

What is the current state of ecosystems and their ecological

thresholds and buffering capacities?

How can we produce food, feed, fiber, and bio-energy that

sustain ecosystem services, safeguard food security, and

promote rural development at the national and international

levels?

GLOBIOM model

Model general structure

7

Partial equilibrium model on land use at global scale

(endogenous prices balance supply and demand)

Agriculture: major agricultural crops and livestock products

Forestry: managed forests for sawnwood, and pulp and paper

production

Bioenergy: conventional crops and dedicated forest plantations

Optimization of the social welfare (producer + consumer surplus)

Base year 2000, recursively dynamic (10 year periods)

Demand defined at the level of 30 world regions

Supply defined at the grid cell resolution

Main data source: FAOSTAT, complemented with bottom-up

sectoral models for production parameters

8

25 regions + 28 EU countries

Spatially explicit

INPUTS OUTPUTS

Population growth and GDP p.c. Bioenergy use

Calorie intake p.c. Demand price elasticity

Processing costs and coefficients

International trade costs

Prices Demand quantity

Processed quantity Bilateral trade flows

Crop parameters Grassland yield

Livestock parameters Forest parameters

Carbon stock (Internal transportation costs)

Land use Crop production

Livestock production Intensification

Wood production GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O)

SCALE

Model bottom-up approach

World partitioned in 30 regions

10

GLOBIOM activities

Climate change mitigation

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Livestock

Bioenergy Deforestation

IPCC AR5 (2014) SPM

Climate change mitigation

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Bioenergy Publications

Havlik et al. (2011) Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets. Energy Policy

Frank et al. (2013) How effective are the sustainability criteria accompanying the European Union 2020 biofuel targets? GCB Bioenergy

Mosnier et al. (2013) Alternative U.S. Biofuel Mandates and Global GHG emissions: The Role of Land Use Change, Crop Management and Yield Growth. Energy Policy

Kraxner et al. (2013). Global bioenergy scenarios – Future forest development, land-use implications, and trade-offs. Biomass and Bioenergy

Projects ILUC assessment: estimation of ILUC coefficient for 1st and 2nd

generation biofuel pathways in the context of European Renewable Energy Directive

Climate change mitigation

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LULUCF

Publications Böttcher et al. (2008) GHG Mitigation Potentials and Costs from

Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in Annex 1

Countries.

Böttcher et al. (2012). Projection of the future EU forest CO 2 sink as

affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest

management models. GCB Bioenergy

Living Forest Report – WWF (2011)

Projects EUClimit: Modeling scenarios and policy options for European Climate

and Energy policies up to 2050

LIMITS: Land use implications of reaching the 2 degree target

Climate change mitigation

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Deforestation in the tropics

Publications Mosnier et al. (2012) Modeling impacts of development trajectories on

forest cover in the Congo Basin, Environmental and Resource Economics

Megevand et al. (2013) Deforestation trends in the Congo Basin. The

World Bank

Cohn et al. (2014). Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce

global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation.

PNAS

Projects REDD-PAC : Assessment of reference levels for future deforestation in

Brazil and in the Congo basin and of potential REDD+policies

CoForTips: tipping points for biodiversity conservation and resilience of

forested social and ecological systems in the Congo Basin

Climate change mitigation

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Livestock

Publications Havlik et al. (2012). Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock

Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas

Emissions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics

Herrero et al. (2013). Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and

greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems. PNAS

Havlík et al. (2014). Climate change mitigation through livestock

system transitions. PNAS

Projects AnimalChange : projecting impact of climate change on livestock

production in Europe by 2030 and 2050

Climate change impacts and adaptation

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Adaptations

Impacts

-17%

± 13% -3%

± 6%

Adapted from Nelson et al. (PNAS, 2013)

Climate change impacts and adaptation

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Publications Nelson et al. (2014) Climate change effects on agriculture: economic

responses to biophysical shocks. PNAS Nelson et al. (2014) Agriculture and climate change in global

scenarios: why don’t the models agree. Agricultural Economics Mosnier et al. (2014) Global food markets, trade and the cost of

climate change adaptation. Food Security Leclere et al. (under review) Climate change impacts on agriculture,

adaptation & the role of uncertainty

Projects AGMIP: to improve integrated impact assessment of climate change

on agriculture GLOBAL-IQ: to evaluate total costs and the optimal mix of adaptation

and mitigation against global changes

Food security

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Food Security availability, access, utilization, stability

IPCC AR5 (2014) WGII Chapter 7

Food security

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Publications Schneider et al. (2011) Impacts of population growth, economic

development, and technical change on global food production and consumption. Agricultural Systems

Valin et al. (2013). Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security? Environmental Research Letters

Vervoort et al. (2014). Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Global Environmental Change

Projects Food Secure: Economic, social and political conditions for satisfying the

world food needs CCAFS Regional scenarios: To capture key uncertainties for regional food

security under conditions of global environmental and socio-economic change

TRANSMANGO: To quantify the effects of global drivers of change on European and global food demand and production for explorative scenarios

Global and regional foresight

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now mid century

2020 end century

Global and regional foresight

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Publications Sauer et al. (2010) Agriculture and resource availability in a

changing world: The role of irrigation. Water Resources Research

Smith et al. (2010) Competition for land, Philosophical transactions

Lauri et al.(2014). Woody biomass energy potential in 2050. Energy

Policy

Projects SIGMA: Spatially explicit projections of cropland and cropping

systems, cropland extensification/intensification environmental

impact analysis

OECD and FAO outlooks

Thank you !

Questions?

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