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The Global Real Estate Market 2017 April 2018 Otemachi Financial City Grand Cube, 1-9-2 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0004, Japan
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The Global Real Estate Market 2017 - NRI

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Page 1: The Global Real Estate Market 2017 - NRI

The Global Real Estate Market 2017

April 2018

Otemachi Financial City Grand Cube1-9-2 Otemachi Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-0004 Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 1

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 2

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 3

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 4

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Chinarsquos GDP overtook Japan in 2010 and the gap will expand after 2012 But itrsquos somewhat eased in 2016

(bn USD)

Source IMF

Changes in Japan and Chinarsquos nominal GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 5

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Real GDP growth rate has been on a downward trend since 2007and it hasreachedthe lowest level in 2015 whichrsquos behind the transition from investment-led growth to consumption-led growth

Source The National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes in real GDP growth rate of China and sectoral contribution

()

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Net Exports Gross Capital Formation Consumption Real GDP Growth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 6

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

The national average of per capita GDP in 2015 increased by 3222 yuan as compared with 2014 Just as the three big cities of Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Jiangsu Province has also reached high income national standard of US$12616

(RMB)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note World Bank definition of high-income country GDP per capita ge USD 12616 (about RMB 83619 according to the rate on November 1 2017)

High-income country Average RMB 83619

GDP per capita by provincemunicipality directly under the central government (2015)

China Average RMB 50251(2014 data RMB 46629)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 7

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

In the background of industrial upgrading the tertiary industries have been growing with their contribution to a GDP growth of over 50 in 2016 This growth became the main factor for increasing real estate investment in urban areas

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(100 mil Yuan)

Trends of Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Overall GDP GDP of tertiary industries Percentage of tertiary industries accounting for in GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 8

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

From 2014 to 2015 the proportion of tertiary industry was increasing in every region Shanxi Gansu Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces showed particularly high growth rates of more than 5

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Percentage of tertiary industry GDP as a whole by region (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Beiji

ng

Shan

ghai

Xiz

ang

Hai

nan

Shan

xi

Tia

njin

g

Heilo

ngjia

ng

Gua

ngd

ong

Zhejia

ng

Gan

su

Jia

ngsu

Chongq

ing

Lia

oni

ng

Shan

dong

Yunna

n

Gui

zhou

Xin

jiang

Nin

gxia

Hunan

Sic

huan

Hube

i

Fik

oam

Qin

ghai

Shan

xi

Neim

eng

gu

Henan

Hebe

i

Jia

ngxi

Anh

ui

Jili

n

Gua

ngx

i

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2015)

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2014)

China Average(2015)502

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 9

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population

The peak-out of productive-age population is coming therersquos a widespread concern about economic slowdown

Source Compiled by NRI from UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

(1950=100)Peak

Productive-age population of China and Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 10

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

After 2015 when it is estimated Chinas demographic dividend disappears the government has to face an increased financial burden a decrease of the labor force a consumption slump and other problems due to a declining birthrate and aging population

As a countermeasure in January 2016 the government abolished the ldquoOne-child policyrdquo and formally adopted the ldquoTwo-childrdquo policy At present there are many families who canrsquot produce the second child due to high childcare expenses and education costs However looking at the remarkable population increase in 2016 it can be seen that this policy was effective

The number of births in China in 2016 was 1788 million which increased by 132 million compared with 1654 million the averagenumber of births from 2012 to 2015

On the other hand for the proportion of people over 65 years old it has exceeded 10 in 2016 following Japan China is predicted to enter an aging society after 2025 and into a super aged society after 2035( If the aging rate exceeds 14 it is classified as aged society if over 21 it is classified as super aged society)

As the measures to cope with declining production population and the rise in the number of elderly population Two-child policy has been officially introduced since 2016 which is expected to boost economic growth

() ()

Change in proportion of young population (lt15)

Source UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

Change in proportion of 65+ population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 11

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Chinarsquos urbanization rate had risen by more than 30 points from 1991 to 2016 The National New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) was issued by the State Council of China on 16th March 2014 The plan highlights

that it is essential to raise the quality of urbanization that comes in line with the Chinese approach to urbanization The plan also underlined that by 2020 permanent urban residents will reach approx 60 of the population while residents in the city census register will account for approx 45 of the total population with 100 million rural residents settling down in the urban areas

Urbanization rate in 2016 reached 574 which is expected to reach 60 of the policy goal in 2020 in another two years

Note) Total population in 2020 is the estimate value of UN while the urbanization rate is the target value stated in government policy

(10000 People )

Source China Statistical Yearbook amp UN World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision

Population and urbanization rate in china

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

30000

60000

90000

120000

150000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20ETotal Population Urban Population Urban Population Ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 12

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Urbanization which has progressed mainly in the coastal area has progressed to inland regions and the Northeast such as Liaoning Chongqing Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang The four provinces of Tibet Shandong Guizhou and Hebei are particularly fast to progress in this year

Urbanization rate of China by area (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Shan

ghai

Bei

jing

Tia

njin

gG

uangd

ong

Lia

onin

gJia

ngs

uZhe

jiang

Fik

oam

Cho

ngq

ing

Neim

eng

guH

eilo

ngj

iang

Shan

dong

Hube

iJili

nN

ingx

iaH

aina

nShan

xiShan

xiJia

ngx

iH

ebe

iH

una

nA

nhu

iQ

ingh

aiSic

hua

nXin

jiang

Gua

ngx

iH

ena

nYunn

anG

ansu

Gui

zhou

Xiz

ang

2014 Ratio() 2015 Ratio()

China Average(2015)561

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 13

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions

Although the newly constructed housing construction area in the urban area which peaked in 2011 had a somewhat declining trend since 2011 when the real estate market regulation were implemented it still was over 1 billion square meters per year

(100 million m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics amp MOHURD China

(m2 per capita)

Changes in construction area of new houses in urban areas Changes in housing area per capita in urban areas

CAGR174

Note) Until 2012 public data from the National Bureau of Statistics is used while the data of 2013 -2016used is published by MOHURD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 14

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend

In the past 16 years the per capita disposable income in urban areas increased at an average growth rate of more than 10 indicating a steady growth in Chinas urban Individual consumption ability

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(RMB)

Disposable Income per Capita and Growth Rate in Urban Areas

CAGR107

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 15

Nationwide average 62 of household income per capita is due to salary income and 17 is due to transfer income The cities with high property revenues including real estate income are Beijing (15) Shanghai (14) Zhejiang (11) and Yunnan (11)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note Salary income wage income Business revenue revenue from commercial buying and selling activities Asset income revenue from moveables and real estate Transfer income income from severance pay pension etc

(RMB)

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

Source of annual household income per capita of urban population by region (2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 16

Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2015 exceeded 30 billion yuan which was 77 times as much as that of 2000 Especially since 2007 it increased at an annual growth rate of 16 per year and urged construction demand of commercial facilities

(100 mil Yuan)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and Its Growth Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 17

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 18

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment which shows about 20 of fixed asset investment in urban areas has expanded at a rate of 20 since 2000 However it has declined to a low level due to the recent slowdown in fixed assets growth

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

Growth Rate Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

CAGR218

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 19

Chinas Real Estate Investment

In the three areas of Beijing (56) Shanghai (55) and Hainan (51) real estate investment in urban fixed asset investment is high In proportion to other areas the areas of less than 50 is more than 18 of nationwide average

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

National Average (18)

The Ratio of Real Estate Investment in Urban Fixed Asset Investment by Region in 2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 20

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Regarding the ratio of real estate investment to fixed asset investment all of the regions declined in 2015 compared to the previous year except for North China region Real estate activities are still most active in the southwestern region

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi ShandongSouth Central China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi HainanSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region in 2015

Overtime Comparison of Growth Rate of Proportion of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region (2014-2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 21

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment in Urban China has been a major driving force in GDP growth so far In recent years the growth of GDP is slowing somewhat due to the slump in real estate investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The conventional housing distribution system was abolished

Change in Growth Rates of GDP and of Real Estate Investment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 22

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Even if the real estate investment value rises year by year 23 of that is still housing investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The Percentage of HousingCommercialOffice Investments in Real Estate Investment (2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 23

Land Market in China

In urban areas of China both commercial and residential land tend to be higher and in terms of historical trends prices of residential land and commercial land will rise at a pace that is significantly higher than the overall average Land price is continuously increasing

While the land supply of urban areas is restricted by the government intense bid auction between real estate development companies is also a factor that invariably leads to an increase in land prices

Land price temporarily declined in 2011 due to the influence of real estate market regulation but after that its turning again to an upward trend Its particularly noteworthy that the increase rate of residential land prices was doubling in 2016 compared with the previous year

Source China urban land price monitoring data

(RMBm2)()

Change in Land prices in urban areas of China Change in Land price appreciation rates in urban areas of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 24

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 25

Chinarsquos Residential Market

During the 10 years to 2011 there was a period in which the supply speed of commercial housing slowed down due to a tightening or adjustment of policy Needs for housing however expanded and the completed area was raised by a high average growth rate of 117

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down The housing supply volume from 2014 to 2015 has been reduced by 10 We can see that the housing supply is decelerating

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down and the deceleration of housing supply in urban areas will be strengthened

(10000 m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The area of commercial residencesrsquo completion in China

CAGR117

CAGR-02

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 26

Chinarsquos Residential Market

In 2015 the number of new commodity houses completed in China is 755 million units which is 293 times as large as the number of newly built houses launched in Japan in 241 units

In 2015 the supply of commodity housing in urban area of China is 750 thousand which is equivalent to the scale of about 29 times of the sale of residential housing in Japan although it is 8 lower than the previous year

(10000 House) (m2 per house )

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The number of commercial residence completions and transition of its average completion area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 27

Residential Market in China

Approximately 30 of the housing construction area is concentrated in the four municipalities of Chongqing Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Construction area decreased more than 60 of cities from the previous year Growth of regional cities such as Lanzhou Nanjing and Guiyang attracts particular attention

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Areas of Completed Residential Properties among Major Cities

National Average Growth Rate10

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 28

Chinas Residential Market

The selling price of commercial residences has risen by 32 times during the last 15 years with this trend being especially evident among luxury properties

(RMBm2)

Note) Since sales prices of the economical housing for low-and-middle income earners in 2011 were not reported in the China Statistical Yearbook 2012 the data here was calculated on the basis of data in 2010 by CAGR at 110

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Selling price of commercial residences in China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 29

Chinas Residential Market

Sale price of residential properties has risen by more than 80 in the last 7 years Shenzhen Shanghai Nanjing and Xiamen each have a price increase of 13 times or more

(RMBm2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Sale Price of Commercial Housing in Major Cities (Comparison between 2008 and 2015)

National Average Growth Rate81

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Selling Prices in 2008 (left scale) Selling Prices in 2015(left scale) Increase in 7 years since 2008(right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 30

Chinas Residential Market

For the past 15 years the annual income ratio of house price in China has changed to about seven times but there was not much change

Shenzhen Shanghai and Beijing are particularly fluctuating Especially in Shenzhen the house price annual income ratio of this 15 years rises nearly five times and it becomes the city which is the most difficult to obtain housing in China

With respect to the annual income ratio of house price Shenzhen is the highest at 28 times followed by Shanghai (21 times) Beijing (18 times) and magnifications tend to expand from the previous year in addition to Guangzhou and Shenyang

Source Statistical material by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the National Bureau of Statistics

(Times)

The housing selling prices to income ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 31

House supply policy of China

Monetary easing policies were implemented after the Lehman shock resulted in skyrocketing housing prices in Beijing Shanghai and other major cities in China As a countermeasure the Chinese government implemented a series of policies that made it more difficult for the acquisition of houses after October 2009

Although house price fluctuations were affected by political tightening and repetition of mitigation and others it was never stopped to raise housing prices especially in large cities while rather acquiring houses became increasingly difficult

Although the policy implemented by the government from 2009 had some effects in reducing housing prices it could never stop the housing price rise and housing acquisition difficulties

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Monthly sales price of commercial housing compared with that of the same month in the previous year (after 2007)

End of 2008 Economic recovery through reduction of interest rates and exemption of real estate acquisition tax etc

October 2009Implementation of housing price suppression policies Abolishment of tax incentives (real estate transaction tax and personal income tax) Implementation of differentiated housing loan policy

March ~ April 2010Purchase of house was limited in 48 cities Higher down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Restriction of banking loan to developers

January 2011Further increase of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Trial introduction of property tax for the third house in Shanghai and Chongqing Increase of house supply through provision of affordable houses

September 2014 Decrease of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house by the central bank Policy for limiting house purchases was abolished in most cities Promoted expansion of financing route and supported banks and other financial institutions to issue housing bonds and REITs

Restriction Easing Easing

()

February~March 2016bull In cities without purchase constraints the

reduction of initial payment of housing loan to 20 was possible

bull Possible further reduction in real estate transaction taxes and business tax

April 2016bull Only First Class Cities such as Shanghai

Shenzhen successively issued new policies to constrain purchases

February~March 2015bull The central government and regional governments will issue

relaxation policies such as consumption acceleration of houses at stock in the Second- and Third-class cities tax reduction supply of subsidies to solve regionality and constitutive issuesof the real estate industry

Restriction

March 2017bull The Tier1 and Tier2

cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen have launched regulation policies continuously

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 32

Government Housing Policy in China

Chinas housing market has been spurred as a vicious circle like if policy loosens itll be overheating If policy ties down itll cool downldquo and it has been supported by high demand so the price rise is expected to continue focusing on 70 cities around the future

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The change of cities number with the housing pricersquos deviation at the link relative ratio in the 70 major cities of China (2011-20179)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 33

Government Housing Policy in China

In July 2017 the government announced the latest policy about the development acceleration of the lease house market targeting at the large and medium-sized cities where lack lease house seriously

The extracts of Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a

net population inflow ( publication with July 26 2017 )

There is a large population to flow into the large and medium-sized cities every year in China The actuality is that the absolutely needed quantity of the leasehold property is insufficient The floating population in 2016 of China reaches 245 million In addition the annual new college graduates are about 7 million people

According to the rental market research report published by Lianjia Research Institute of a large real estate intermediary company focusing on Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou the floating population in Tier1 cities will account for more than 40 of the overall population in the future

In order to solve the new housing problem of the citizens in large and medium cities in July 2017 Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a net population inflow (Hereinafter referred to briefly as ldquonotificationrdquo)

According to the notification in the large and medium cities with a net population inflow therersquore some problems with insufficient total rental housing market disorder imperfect of payment support system and introduced relevant policies to speed up the construction of rental housing and rental housing market cultivation and development

Promote more specialized and large-scale enterprises engaged in leasing residential enterprises

Establish a government property rental housing transaction service platform

Expand the supply of rental housing Renewal of rental housing management and service system

The extracts of the model plan of utilizing a group construction site to build the lease house(publication with August 28 2017)

Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other developments selected Beijing Shanghai Shenyang Nanjing Hangzhou Hefei Xiamen Zhengzhou Wuhan Guangzhou Foshan Zhaoqing Chengdu and other 13 cities as pilot cities for the development of rental housing policy

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 34

Prospects of Chinas residential market

In 2018 the characteristics of residential market in China are as below The rental housing market in the Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is on the rise and the supply scale of the medium and large housing has expanded

Directions of Chinas residential market in 2018

bull The contradiction between the inflow of new population and the unaffordable housing in large and medium-sized cities has widened

Increase the supply of rental housing in Tier1 and Tier2 cities with significant population inflow

bull The new housing requirements spawned by ldquotwo-child policyrdquo and the maintenance demand to child care-related service

The demand for large and medium sized housing that value child-rearing and related service enrichment is expanding

bull The diversification of residential demand in Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is coexistent with high housing price

Strong Tier1 and Tier2 cities have boosted the residential market in Tier3 and Tier4 cities

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 35

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 36

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

As a result of the slowdown in consumption growth and the impact of e-commerce the supply of commercial facilities has been gradually decreasing in the years since 2013

(10 thousand m2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Nationwide Commercial Facilities Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 37

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Investment in commercial facilities has been steadily increasing at an average annual rate of 26 by 2014 but significant investment continued to decelerate after that

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Investment Amount and Growth Rate of Commercial Facilities

CAGR230

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 38

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

The average sale price of commercial facilities has recovered slightly in the past two years and has increased in north China and eastern China and has decreased in south China

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in China

The sale areas and sale price of commercial facilities in eachregion(2015 and 2016)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

North China Northeast

China

Eastern

China

South Central

China

Southwest

China

Northwest

China

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (left scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (right scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 39

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Sales of commercial facilities in Guizhou Chongqing Hainan Henan and Gansu have all doubled in the last five years By contrast sales in the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning Heilongjiang and Jilin) have declined significantly

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities by Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 40

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

Office supply in urban areas in China has experienced a downturn after the Lehman Brothersrsquo failure in 2008 however a growing trend with a low completion rate continues as a whole

(10 thousand m2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Change in Nationwide Office Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 41

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

By 2014 due to the rapid increase in investment in the office market the construction of office buildings also welcomed Immediate peach And in the last three years as investment growth has slowed the office market has regained its stability

(100 mil Yuan)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Investment Amount Growth Rate of Office Development

CAGR21

CAGR33

CAGR8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 42

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

More than 40 of office sales are concentrated in eastern China In the last two years the sales volume has increased by more than 30 which is concentrated in east China and north China and the unit price has been increasing again

(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices in China Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices by Area (2014 and 2015)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

North China Northeast China Eastern China South Central

China

Southwest China Northwest China

Sales Spaces of Office in 2015 (left scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Office in 2015 (right scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 43

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

In the last five years sales of office buildings in Shandong Xinjiang Guizhou and Chongqing have been extremely brisk In contrast Liaoning and Tianjin saw a significant reduction in sales volume

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Office Sales Spaces by Region

14082

-562

88282

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 44Source Public information of Commercial Property Cloud Think Tank

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Chinarsquos commercial real estate market tendency of shopping center

In recent years the opening area of shopping center in eastern China has been in the first place but it has shown a deceleration trend On the other hand central China is more in Tier2 cities and inland cities where the development of shopping centers is booming

In 2016 the number of newly opened large-scale shopping centers in China was 465 which have a total development area of 43193500increasing by 321 compared to 2015

In 2016 the area with the most new openings was east China followed by north China and south China Compared with the slowdown in central China the development of the southwest region has attracted considerable attention

The opening area of the first-class city accounts for about 15 of the total and the new first-class city with remarkable growth accounts for 25 of the total Small scale projects of less than 200000 are mainstream

The area and quantity of new opening shopping centers in 2016 Number of new start-up shopping centers by size in 2016

Note) The shopping center here is counted only for large projects over 30000 Note) First-class cities refer to the four cities of Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou and ShenzhenNewfirst class cities refer to the 15 cities of Chengdu Hangzhou Wuhan Tianjin Nanjing Chongqing Xian Changsha Qingdao Shenyang Dalian Xiamen Suzhou Ningbo and Wuxi

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 45

Prospects of commercial real estate market in China

In 2018 the commercial real estate market in China needs to build a construction facility and operation management system that adapts to the present era and citizens consumption behavior

Directions of Chinas real estate market in 2018

bull Update needs of existing traditional commercial business Differentiation development needs during commercial setting Compounding construction needs in commercial development delayed region

Modification of existing commerce centered on Tier1 and Tier2 cities new construction of Lifestyle-based small-scale specialty commerce and construction of a large complex commercial centering on Tier3 and Tier4 cities

bull Activation of everyday consumer behavior relying on online more and more in theTier1 and Tier2 cities

Establishment of a new commercial business model including the introduction of online-offline business model and examination of operations management system accordingly

bull Lack of a convenient community of nearby commercials that can adapt to todays era and citizens life

Construction of a living-oriented neighborhood commerce tackling many business styles such as childcare and senior services

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 46

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 47

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In 2016 the top 10 companies were the same as last year but the ranking changed The most notable was that Evergrande Real Estate surpassed the industrys largest enterprise Vanke Real Estate to become the No1 in the industry

Rank2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales1 Vanke Group 1215 Vanke Group 1452 Vanke Group 1776 Vanke Group 2120 Vanke Group 2627 Poly Group 2627

2 Dalian Wanda Group 953 Poly Group 1020 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1625 Shanghai Greenland Group 2080 Evergrande Group 2050 Vanke Group 2050

3 EvergrandeGroup 804 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1013 Poly Group 1251 DalianWanda Group 1501 Shanghai Greenland

Group 2015 Country Garden 2015

4 Shanghai Greenland Group 770 China Overseas

Land 945 China Overseas Land 1103 Evergrande Group 1376 Dalian

Wanda Group 1513 Shanghai Greenland Group 1513

5 Poly Group 732 Dalian Wanda Group 938 Evergrande Group 1073 Poly Group 1362 China Overseas

Land 1492 Poly Group 1492

6 China Overseas Land 708 Evergrande Group 925 Country Garden 1068 Country Garden 1250 Poly Group 1471 China Overseas

Land 1471

7 Country Garden 432 China Greentown 547 Dalian Wanda Group 844 China Overseas

Land 1152 Country Garden 1402 Longfor Group 1402

8 Longfor Group 383 China Resources Land 505 China Resources

Land 688 Shimao Property Holdings 708 China Resources

Land 851 RampF Properties 851

9 China Greentown 353 Country Garden 491 Shimao Property Holdings 683 China Resources

Land 700 Sunac China 731 Country Garden 731

10 China Resources Land 330 Shimao Property

Holdings 461 China Greentown 660 Sunac China 658 China Fortune Land Development 725 Dalian Wanda

Group 725

TotalSales 6680 8297 10771 12907 14877 22022

Total Share within

National Sales

113 129 133 169 170 1872

Average Coverage 405 Cities 531 Cities 672 Cities 737 Cities 751 Cities 875 Cities

Source) Compiled by NRI based on publicly available information and the data of each companyrsquos homepage

Comparison of Developers Top 10 (2011~2016)Unit 100 mil RMB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 48

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In the recently announced Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017 domestic capital and Hong Kong-Singaporean companies accounted for half of the total SCPG whichrsquos the subsidiary of Vanke Real Estate has replaced Wanda group enter the Top3

Rank Company Name Company Nature Overall Rating Score Representative Commercial Project

1 China Resources Land domestic capital 897 Shenzhen MIXC

2 Hang Lung Properties Hong Kong capital 879 Plaza 66

3 CSPG domestic capital 866 Wuhan INCITY

4 Wanda Commercial Real Estate domestic capital 858 Wanda Plaza

5 Longfor Properties domestic capital 824 Chongqing North Street

6 Capitaland Singapore captial 823 Raffles City Shanghai Plaza

7 SHK Properties Hong Kong capital 817 ICC Shanghai

8 Swire Properties Hong Kong capital 815 Chengdu TaiKoo Hui

9 Joy City Properties domestic capital 809 Shanghai Joy City

10 Wharf Holdings Hong Kong capital 808 Shanghai Time Square

Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017

Note) November 2017 New perspective media announced TOP 100 enterprises in 2017China Commercial real estate Four indicators are used in the overall evaluation (full mark 100 points) as management (40 points) management (30 points) brand (20 points) and innovation (10 points)

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 49

bull The government will introduce various incentives to expand the rental housing market

The new type of residential leasing enterprises centered on large state-owned enterprises keeps pouring out

bull Real estate developers are actively involved in the construction of a small town (street) in the background of the new city

Work with other companies across industries to develop new real estate products

bull From the previous emphasis on the development of real estate developers a focus on industrial agglomeration and cultivation of operation managers

Real estate developers have diversified into other businesses as well as the rapid growth of industrial property developers who are engaged in the development and operation of industrial parks

1

2

3

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 50

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 51

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 52

Macroeconomic trends

The Korean economy is expected to continue growing at a low rate of 3

The trend and forecast of GDP and economic growth rate in Korea

SourceNRI based on IMF (201710)

GDP CAGR in 90s

67

GDP CAGR in 00s

42

Expected GDP CAGR after 2011

30

600

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

500

400

300

200

100

0200

2200

1200

0199

9199

8199

7201

5199

5199

4199

3199

2199

1199

02020(E)

2019(E)

2018(E)

2017(E)

2016(E)

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

1996

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

295296296302283279331290

650546518

392490

743

1131

957921

1035981

229368

071

283293

453

892

-547

592

760685

618

GDP (Real GDP Trillion Won) Economic Growth Rate ()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 53

Macroeconomic trends

Interest rate has declined to 1 since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 Low interest rate is expected to increase the liquidity

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Interest Rate (1998-2016)

475525

4 425375

325375

455

3

225

325275 25

215 125

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10yr Treasury Bond (average)

3yr Cooperate Bond aa- (average)

CD 91 days (average)

Call Rate (overnight average)

Base Rate

(unit )

Consistent downturn in interest ratesince 1998

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 54

Macroeconomic trends

With the implementation of a loose monetary policy for economic revitalization the amount of domestic currency is continuously increasing and market liquidity is expanding

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Trends in average balance of KRW (1998-2016)

rsquo98年以後

持続的な増加傾向

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Lf M2 M1 ハイパワードマネー

Consistently increasing trendsince 1998

(unit Trillion Won)

Note High-powered money = Currency issued + KRW deposited in financial institutions and The Bank of Korea M1 (consultation currency) Currency-in-circulation + demand deposits and savings account balance where deposit or withdrawal can be done any time - mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

M2 (Broad currency) M1 + time depositssavingsreservespayments + market-based financial instruments (CDRPAccommodation bill) + financial instruments offering dividend + bank debentures + others (investment securities and savingspromissory notes issued by financial companies) - long-term financial instruments (2 years)mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

(Liquidity of financial institutions) M1 + Savingsreservesbank debentures within M2 with maturity period of 2 years or more + deposits with Korea Securities Finance Corporation + reserves for insurance contracts with life insurance companies (including post offices) + deposits excluding those of agricultural cooperatives or country people - mutual dealings of such financial instruments between institutions covered in Lf

High-powered money

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 55

Macroeconomic trends

Valorization Policy maintains Consumer Price Index at approximately 1

Changes in Consumer Price Index(CPI) Year-on-year Ratio

(unit Year-on-Year )

271

191

250265

210

176203

384

237260

367

207

126 125

070097

328

168

280

356

306

243257

444

182

303

406

165

071084

-022

067

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CPI CPI for living necessities

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea Media Research

Note CPI is calculated on a monthly basis assuming year 2015 as 100 and covering 481 items (weighted average) for research

CPI for living necessities provides a separate summary of 142 products that are designated as daily necessities or those that are purchased frequently out of the total 481 products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 56

Macroeconomic trends

After the Lehman shock the wondollar exchange rate fell However it started to rise after 2014

WonDollar exchange rate trends

907

1411

1013

1145

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

05

01

05

06

05

11

06

04

06

09

07

02

07

07

07

12

08

05

08

10

09

03

09

08

10

01

10

06

10

11

11

04

11

09

12

02

12

07

12

12

13

05

13

10

14

03

14

08

15

01

15

06

15

11

16

04

16

09

17

02

17

07

(unit Won)

It started to increase after 2014

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Note Based on the current price of KRW USD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 57

12655 11795 33593

18656

81148 105940 98677

Current account

Macroeconomic trendsThe current account surplus is slightly lower (approximately 990 dollars) than the one last year which was recorded the highest This is because of the fall in exports and the deficit in service balance resulted from recession in construction and transportation industry

Current account trends

-70000

-20000

30000

80000

130000

180000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Balance of secondary income

Balance of primary income

Balance of services

Balance of goods

(unit million dollar)

345115

728805 622212

303672

636241

484159

Exports of Goos amp Services

Imports of Goods amp Services

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 58

Macroeconomic trendsThe rise of the rate of employment and unemployment The rise of the employment rate is attributed to increase in the middle-agedelderly workers However for job seekers in their 20s the work environment is not improving

Employment Rate and Unemployment Rate in Korea Employment Rate by Age

(unit ) (unit ten thousands people) (unit )

Improvement in employment rate

389 378 371 365 361 357 363 369 375

601 584 583 579 576 574 571 568 564

655 652 655 661 662 664 668 667 664

430 450 479 508 535 561 585 599 609

264 269 274 289 311 329 349 366 388

595

586 587591

594 595

602 603 604

50

52

54

56

58

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10s 20s 30s 40s 50s over 60 Employment rate

No of employees over 50s(372 )

590

600

593

598 597 597 598

595

586 587

591

594 595

602603 604

40

33

36 37 3735

32 32

36 37

3432 31

3536 37

00

10

20

30

40

50

57

58

59

60

61

62

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Employment rate Umemployment rate

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (KOSTAT)

Note Employment Rate=(employeepopulation over age 15)x100 Unemployment Rate=(The UnemployedEconomically Active Population)x100

Improvement in both employment

and unemployment rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 59

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 60

Office market trends

The Seoul office market is divided into three categories CBD government agencies and conglomerate headquarters YBD financial district GBD IT district

Sphere wise office market of Seoul

Seoul City hall

bull The largest office district with a long history

bull Developed since the 1960s and has a high level of infrastructure

bull The highest rental rate in Korea bull Conglomerate headquarters foreign

companies in Korea (Seoul) insurancesecurities companies government agency buildings embassies etc

bull Developed since the mid 1980sbull Lower vacancy rate than the other

districts due to low new supplybull Rent rate in between two other

districtsbull ITconglomerates and foreign

companies

CBD(Central Business District)

GBD(Gangnam Business District)

bull Developed since the late 1980sbull Rent is lower than CBD and GBDbull Headquarters of financial

institutions such as banks and securities

YBD(Yeouido Business District)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 61

Office market trends

Regarding the domestic office market the supply of new offices increased mainly in CBD and YBD after 2010 After 2014 the supply of new offices mainly increased in GBD

Trends in new supply of offices in Seoul

CBD Central(1970 to 1986)

GBD Central(1987 to 2009)

(unit 万)

CBD(2010

to 2011)

YBD(2012 to

2013)

GBD(2014

onwards)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

70 72 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 62

Office market trends

The vacancy rate of new prime offices in Seoul was 8 and the rental rate reduced to 87K KRW33m2Month

Vacancy rate of prime offices in Seoul Rental rate of prime offices in Seoul

(unit KRW33Month)

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 63

Office market trends

The number of major office transactions in Seoul was 72 and it is rapidly increasing with the total sale price

Number of Seoul office sales and total sale prices

(unit Trillion KRW)(Unit sale)

Note Offices with total floor area of 3300m2 or more only are covered

25

35

57

4241

52 26

39 38

53

48

57 58 59

51

46

72

17 19 26

22

28 26

12

41 42 48 46

55 56 60

70

36

88

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Total Sale Price

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 64

Office market trends

The office sale price was about 48 Millionm2 and the cap rate was 53

Sales volume and pricem2 by office district in Seoul

2488 2818

3658 4034

3513 3760

4103 4284 4297

4632 4787 4829

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Averaged Sale Pricem2

(Unit Ten thousands ) (Unit Thousand KRW)

79

73

67

62 6366

68

60

54

59

48

53

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 65

Office market trends

In 2015 the averaged volume of office sales was 19000m2 and the averaged sale price per 33m2 was about 16M KRW

Sale price per volume by office district in Seoul (2016 property transaction)

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Note This analysis covers 43 offices with transactions concluded mainly in CBD GBD and YBD in 2016Transactions for the completion of construction in 2016 IFC individual transactions etc 7 cases are excluded

(Price ten thousands KRW33m2) (unit ten thousands KRW33m2)

Volume(m2)

CBD GBD YBD

1500

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1000

500

9000060000300002000010000 250000 1500050000

35000

National Health Insurance Corporation

Teheran building

Capital TowerCosmos building

Daewoo Shipbuilding amp Marine Engineering Building

Center point opticalization

Samsung Lifes Head Office

International building

Jong-Ro Tower

Average transaction cost1791(10K KRW 33)

Average transaction area19474 ()

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

00

1955 Million KRW

2005 Million KRW

1328 Million KRW

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 66

Office market trends

The office market Cap rate in 2015 was about 5 and Spread of government bonds was 4

Trends of Seoul office cap rate and T-bill

Source NRI based on Media Research

41 42 32

48 34

25 21 09 04

15 22 18 27 23 27 26 31

7869 66

51 47 50

52 54 56 52 48 42

35 33 32 23 22

119 111

98 98

8275 73

62 6067 70

60 6156 59

49 53

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

스프레드 국고채 10년 Cap rate(unit )

ldquoPositioning investee companies as steady and profitable with the 3 level Spreadrdquo

Real estate market activities

Temporary market stagnation due to

financial crises

Alternate investments becoming active due to low-interest rate policy

Spread T-bill (10yr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 67

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 68

Residential market trendsThe domestic household debts have increased to 1300 Trillion KRW Among these home equity loan accounts for 40 Also the default risk is rising because of decline in real estate prices and increase in interest rates

Trends in scale of household finance

665724

776843

916 9641021

10891203

1344

293 311 338 363 392 404 418 461 491546

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

가계대출 주택대출(単位 兆ウォン)

440

430436

430 428

419409

423408 406

주택담보대출비중Unit Trillion KRW Weight of home equity loan

Household finance Housing loan

Source NRI Analysis National Statistical Office (NSO)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 69

Residential market trends

The land price index and the land transaction volume are gradually rising

Land Transaction Volume and Land Price Index1)

224 229 223207

233

204224

264

309 300

28 26 23 17 19 16 20 26 36 37

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

National

Seoul

890 887 895 905 915 924 935 953

976 1002

Land price index1)

Land transactionvolume

(unit No of lots)CAGR193

CAGR66

(Lot unit 10 thousand number of case )

Note 1) Based on Land Price Index 2016121 = 100

Source NRI based on data from Real Estate Official Statistics Network (httpwwwr-onecokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 70

Residential market trendsThe housing transaction volume was showing recovery after 2012 however with the increase in uncertainties such as the credit examination strengthening and the interest rate increase in USA it has slightly decreased

Transition of National Housing Transaction Volume

(unit no of transaction)Transaction volume of metropolitan areaaccounts for about 54 of that of nationwide

384777

385400 443923475075

517361

608424

463459

488757

543062

581909

484807

2015

1193691

611782

2014

1005173

462111

2013

851850

363093

2012

735414

271955

2011

981238

372814

2010

799864

282503

2009

870353

395278

2008

893790

449867

2007

867933

482533

2006

1082453

697676

2016

1053069

568262

Capital areaRural area

212978221683

148266111889

83257114315

88737138016147023159396

263599

Seoul

Source NRI based on data from Onnara Real Estate (httpwwwonnaragokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 71

Residential market trends

The supply of housing units increases since 2013 especially in apartments In 2016 about one million units are newly supplied

Housing supply by types of housing

544909

644512

459887 468642 504481

804019 854095

658025

727354

1085838 1055149

412891 476462

263153 297183 276989

356762 376086

278739

347687

534931 506816

106251

152042 186637

163357

219823

349661 340477

277594 274869

350463 341915

25767 16008 10097 8102 7669 13596 13532 32692 41170

105112

128450

84000 124000

69000 63628 95332

77968

-

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total Apartment Multi-unit dwelling Officetel Urban-type housing(unit no of housing supply) (unit no of house)

Source NRI based on statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation

Official statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation do not include some officetels and urban-type residences hence the gross households supplied would be different from what is mentioned in this report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 72

Residential market trends

The average Housing Price Index has been increasing since 2013 especially in Seoul and the metropolitan area

Housing Price Index (10 years) Housing Price Index (3 years)

(unit index) (unit index)

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

Note Standard of National Housing Price Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source National Statistical Office

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 73

Residential market trends

The Jeonse (House Lease) price index has consistently illustrated an upward trend in these ten years However recently the growth rate has slowed down

Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (10 years) Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (3 years)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

940

945

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

1055

1060

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Capital AreaNational Rural AreaSeoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

(unit index) (unit index)

Note Based on National House Lease Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source NRI based on Korea Appraisal Board

Jeonse refers to the way houses are leased Instead of paying monthly rent a renter will makea lump-sum deposit on a rental space at anywhere from 50 to 80 of the market value

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 74

Residential market trends

The Jeonse cost is about 68 of the Housing price The standard in the capital area being 70 it is mainly increasing in Seoul and capital area

National Jeonse Cost to Housing Price

556 563 566 572 577 586 593 584 593 606 616 622 626 631 638 646 653 661 672 678 680 680

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11

3Q

11

4Q

12

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

13

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

14

1Q

14

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

15

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

16

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

National Capital Area Seoul Rural Area

(単位 )

CAGR

National

Capital Area

Seoul

Rural Area

10

16

16

05

Source NRI data from based on The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 75

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 76

Commercial facilities market trends

The retail market scale has reached approximately 300 trillion KRW including the both online and offline especially the online business that has shown a remarkable increase

OnlineOffline Retail Market Scale (2006-2016)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores) Online market = Computer shopping mobile shopping (excluding TV home shopping and catalogue shopping)

The total sales of large marts calculated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) excludes the sales of duty free shops and includes those of complex malls and Auretto Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Korea Online Shopping Association

309

243(79)

66(21)

2015

2016

287

233(81)

54(19)

2014

273

227(83)

45(17)

2013

265

226(85)

40(15)

2012

260

225(86)

36(14)

2011

249

217(87)

32(13)

2010

224

201(90)

23(10)

2009

208

188(90)

21(10)

2008

198

179(91)

18(9)

2007

188

172(92)

16(8)

(Unit Trillion KRW ) オフラインオンライン

CAGR (2007 to 2011)

73

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

44 CAGR(2007 to 2011)

60 20

191 164

Online Offline

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 77

Commercial facilities market trends

Among the offline stores CVS has been leading in growth while the other businesses stay on slow growth

Offline Retail Market Scale (2011-2016 business type wise)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores)

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO)

233

102(44)

49(21)

29(12)

29(13)

7(3)

17(7)

2014

227

102(45)

47(21)

29(13)

29(13)

7(3)

13(6)

2013

226

103(46)

46(20)

30(13)

28(13)

7(3)

2012

12(5)

225

45(20)

2016

243

103(42)

53(22)

30(12)

30(12)

106(47)

7(3)

20(8)

2015

29(13)

28(12)

7(3)

11(5)

Department stores Speciality retail stores

HypermarketSM (excluding SSM)SSM (Corporate supermarkets)

Convenience stores

CAGR

01

82 239

13

(2012 to 2014)(2014 to 2016)

29 56

38 28

24 26

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

49

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

32

(Unit Trillion KRW )

-17 03

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 78

Commercial facilities market trends

Regarding SM market the growth rate remains in 2 range and SSM rate stays 20 range

SM market scale (2012-2016)

SSM = Lotte Super GS Retail Home Plus Everyday Retail Seowon Distribution Fishery Cooperatives and Logistics and CS Logistics standards

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Distributors Yearbook

(unit Trillion KRW )

304(80)

74(20)

2015

368

283(81)

68(19)

2012

295(80)

73(20)

2014

359

289(80)

70(20)

2013

351

2016

378

275(81)

340

65(19)

25

33

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

27

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

26

SMSSM

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 79

Commercial facilities market trends

The Online market is rapidly growing more than 10 every year and purchase channel is shifting from computer to mobile

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 procurement channel wise)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association

(Unit Trillion KRW )

2016

657

2013

397

244(45)

295(55)

317(70)

135(30)

452

2014

356(54)

301(46)

2015

539

59(15)

338(85)

2012

366

26(7)

340(93) 919

-30

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

MobilePC

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 80

Commercial facilities market trends

In looking at the business types the growth of online stores is led by the expansion of open market and social commerce

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 by business type)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association and Justice Committee Meeting

(Unit Trillion KRW )

254(56)

300(56)

328(50)215

(60)233

(59)

2016

657

98(15)

230(35)

2012

358

19(5)

124(35)

2015

539

80(15)

159(29)

2014

452

55(12)

143(32)

2013

397

34(9)

130(33)

505

167

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

OthersSocial commerceOpen market

112

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 81

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 82

Investment market trends

REITs market has expanded to 25 Trillion KRW In recent years REITs are mostly by Private Offers

Trends in scale of domestic REITs market

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

공모 사모

4 8 10 12 14 18 20 36

50 69 71

80 98

125

169

리츠수

(AUM Standards Unit Trillion KRW individuals)

06 10 14 17 33 50 4970

7682 95

117149

180

245

Funds REITsPublicOffer

PrivateOffer

Source NRI Analysis KORAMCO Korea Financial Investment Association

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 83

Investment market trends

The market has been gradually changing for the past 10 years shifting the focus from CR-REITs to externally-managed REITs

Trends in composition ratio of domestic REITs

(総資産基準 )

1000 1000 1000

637541 707

650

694 644 630527 404 367

309

208

363459

293340 300 346 337

427563 605 667

780

10 07 10 33 45 33 28 24 12

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠 위탁관리리츠 자기관리리츠Corporate

Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

Source NRI Analysis REITs Information System

(Level of total assets )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 84

Investment market trends

With the reduction of composition ratio of CR-REITs the composition ratio of listed REITs is also reduced to 14

Trends in proportion of domestic and listed REITs

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠

위탁관리리츠

자기관리리츠

778

1000937

783

588

367 329

174104 127 122 122 89 59

14

系列1(Level of total assets )

Proportion of listed REITsCorporate Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

The real estate prices were calculated keeping the index as on December 2015 as 100 and beneficiary rate was calculated based on the Housing Price Index

Source NRI Analysis Factset Bloomberg Kookmin Bank Korea Investment amp Securities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 85

Investment market trends

In looking at the each sectors the diversification of REITs assets is growing including domains such as retail logistics and hotel

44

31 3223

1622

29

46

100

50

7571

100

2861

45

3150 40

38

25

50

2529

17

8

9

8

1819

1713

6

8

56

10 99

8

7 9

5 55 5

22

4 4 1 2

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

기타

호텔

물류 공장

리테일

오피스

주택

(unit )

Others

Hotel

LogisticsFactory

Retail

Office

House

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (numbers of REITs)

Source NRI based on Korea Financial Investment Association Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport Korea Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts KORAMCO

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 86

Investment market trends

In looking at AUM basis the majority of REITsrsquo assets are still by the offices and housing

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (AUM-based)

(AUM 基準 )

05 08 12 13 23 37 36 44 49 5671 81 89 89

112

1013 12

19 1718

1723

27 29

35

00

07 09 0604

05

2449

83

0103

08

09

13

15

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

오피스 리테일 주택 기타オフィス リテール 住宅 その他

Source NRI Analysis Korea Financial Investment Association KAREIT

AUM standards Office Retail Housing Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 87

Investment market trends

The margin ratio of REITs is 6 range having less fluctuations than the other financial instruments

REITs dividend yield ratio

(単位 )

85 66 84122 119

404

280 261

86 83 71 92 62 81 66

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

국고채 10년 기준금리 리츠수익률 코스피수익률(YoY)

Source NRI Analysis

T-Bill (10yr) Base rate REITs margin ratio

KOSPIMargin ratio

(YoY)Unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 88

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 89

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 90

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The area of the dominated territory of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is equals to that of Kyushu and with 23 million

90

Country name Republic of China (Founded Oct 10 1912)(The relocation of the Chinese Nationalist Party to Taiwan was in 1949)

Era name Minguo (2017 AD= Minguo 106)

Capital Taipei City (Population 269 million)

Major cities Shinipei City (Population 398 million) Taoyuang City (217 million) Taichung City (278 million) Tainan City (189 million) Kaohsiung City (278 million)

Area Approx 36197 km2 (2016 A bit little smaller than Kyushu Japan)

Population Approx 2355million (as of Jul 2017)

Ethnic Composition Han Race 98 Aboriginal 2

Currency New Taiwan dollar (NTD) 1 NTD=Approx 366 yen (As of Jul 2017)

Nominal GDP USD 5299 billion (2016)

Nominal GDP per capita USD 22540 (2016)

No of Japanese residents 21887 (as of Oct 2016)

Number of Japanese companies Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Taipei member firms 466 (Mar 2017)

Number of travelers between Japan

From Japan to Taiwan from Japan 190 million (2016)From Taiwan to Japan from Taiwan 430million (2016)

Overview of Taiwan

Matsu Kinmen Region

Penghu Islands

CapitalTaipei

TaichungCity

Kaohsiung City

Tainan City

ShinpeiCity

TaoyuangCity

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 91

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population of childbearing age has reached the apex The total population is predicted to decrease after 2020 and thus the issue of population decline has emerged

Population has been expected to reach the peak in around 2025 and after that population in Taiwan may decease gradually

Population in Taiwan by age-group

Popu

latio

n (th

ousa

nd))

Source NRI based on the CEPD Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

5739 5716 5525 5076 4703 4259 3624 3188 3062 3038 2851

11361 12621 13607 14650 15652 16295 17050 17366 16847 15998 15161

766 977

1269 1631

1921 2217 2488 2939 3788 4698 5574

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-64 Ages 65 or overlarrActual Forecastrarr

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 92

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population density in Taiwan is approximately twice as that in Japan

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in population distribution

Land area

36197

377972

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2016)

(kmsup2)

Total population

24

127

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

Population density

651

335

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

x 19

(百万人) (人 kmsup2)

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 93

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

GDP per capita of Taiwan is about 67 of that of Japan and income level is 83

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in the scale of economy

Exchange rate (Date Dec 2015)1USD = 11605 YEN1USD = 32171 NTD

GDP

5299

49386

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(億ドル)

GDP Per capita

22540

38917

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

Household income

38960

47031

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(ドル) (ドル)

X 083

X 058

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 94

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Taiwanrsquos economy showed negative growth during IT bubble of 2001 and the financial crisis after Lehman Shock of 2009 but it quickly returned to stable growth trend

Since 2010 European debt crisis has worsened the global economy In the meanwhile US Domestic manufacturing has growth and the Chinas ldquoRed Supply Chainrdquo has risen Accordingly Taiwanrsquos export decreased which causes decline in GDP growth rate

Taiwanrsquos GDP growth rate slightly declined at the level of around 15 while is expected to increase 122

GDP growth rate in Taiwan

-165

526

367

619

470 562

652

070

-157

1063

380

206 22

402

072148

211 227

-5

0

5

10

15

()

(y)

Forecast

Source NRI based on the DGBAS Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 95

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The cross-strait relationship has improved greatly since 2008 While after 2016 the interaction between these two countries may reduce

History of Cross-strait relationshipMay 2008 Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party becomes the 12th President of Taiwan

Jul Chinese tourists to Taiwan was deregulated (Group tour)Dec The Three Links (Liberalization in commerce transportation and postal service) is implementedDec Cross-Strait Conference on the Cooperation and Exchange of the Chinese Medicine Industry which is the project representing the cross-

strait industrial bridge was held in Taipei

Apr 2009 The third summit meeting of cross-strait contact points was held A memorandum on cross-strait financial cooperation (concerning banks securities and insurances) was signed and chartered flights were decided to be increased and become scheduled

Jul Chinese investment into Taiwan was deregulated (63 kinds in manufacturing 24 in service and 11 in public works was released to be invested by Chinese)

Nov Cross-Strait financial MOU was signed (Put into effect in January 2010)

Jun 2010 The Fifth ChenndashChiang summit was held Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was signed and 267 Chinarsquos products and 539 Taiwanrsquos products are listed in the tariff concessions

Jan 2011 Started waiving import tariffs (so-called Early Harvest list)

Nov Both sides agreed on industry cooperation in following segments (LED Municipal Wireless Cold Chain Logistics TFT-LCD EV)

Aug 2012 The customs authorities of Taiwan and China signed a Cross-Strait Customs Cooperation Agreement regarding customs service smuggling crackdown and tariff reduction

Aug Both sides reached a consensus to promote a mechanism of transparency information loosing investment limitations to promote prosperity

Jun 2013 The Cross-Strait Agreement in Trade in Services based on WTO framework is signed It proposes opening up over 100 services sectors in phases

Mar 2014 Taiwans ruling Kuomintang party attempted a unilateral move in the Legislative Yuan to force the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement to the legislative floor without giving it a clause-by-clause review Such an action occurred An Anti-Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement demonstration on the next day

April Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng visited the occupied parliament chamber and promised to postpone review of the trade pact until legislation monitoring all cross-strait agreements has been passed

May 2016 Since 20th May 2016 Ing-wen Tsai has begun her presidency and claimed that the relationship between Taiwan and China in the next four years will remain steady

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 96

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Although the current Taiwan-China relation is not as warm as before the number of flight between these countries is higher than between Hong Kong and China

No of Destinations in China 2017 No of flights to China 2017

1178

1312

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

HK

Taiwan

47

71

46

55

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

HK

Taiwan

No of destinations between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

No of flights between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

Unit FlightsweekUnit Destinations

Source NRI based on the Civil Aeronautics Administration of the MOTC ROC(Taiwan) and Airport Authority Hong Kong

The estimation is based on the public release the of Civil Aviation Administration of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 97

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 98

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

Following 8 areas compose major office districts in Taipei City

Major office areas in Taipei City

Hsin YiWorld Trade Centerbull Redeveloped under the Hsin Yi Development Plan Area with the

highest office rent level in Taipeibull Highly convenient due to the large concentration of administrative

financial trade exhibitory leisure and residential functionsbull Offices of global companies such as IBM and Microsoft located

Neihu Science Park districtbull The area Government aims to develop as a

science park districtbull Holding a large concentration of IT industry

headquartersbull Its traffic convenience has improved due to the

extension of MRT

Dun Hua NMinshengbull Having the second largest concentration of

luxury offices (Hsin Yi area is the largest) and being home to many financial service industries

bull Traffic convenience significantly improved after the SongShan airport became an international airport

Dunnanbull Holding a large number of well-known companies and foreign firmsbull Holding many financial companies as well as many traditional

industriesbull With its traffic convenience having developed to be a complex of

residential and commercial area

Songjiang Nanjingbull Area with the highest office density in Taipeibull Holding a large number of offices of Japanese

firms as well as traditional industries financial services and travel industries

Taipei station areabull Area centering Taipei station where the lines of

Taiwan Railways MRT and the High Speed Rail intersect

bull The first area in Taipei City where offices were developed with a large concentration of financial insurance industries and government institutions

Taipei station

area

Hsin YiWorld Trade

Center

Zhong Shan Northbull A large concentration of offices commercial

facilities and hotelsbull Many offices of Japanese firms are also

located

Taipei SongShanAirport

Nanjing Fuxingbull A class offices are concentrated in this area

providing comprehensive commercial financial services

bull The opening of MRT Songshan-Xindian Line in 2014 has made making journeys even more convenient

Zhon

gSh

an N

orth

Song

jiang

Nan

jing

Dun

Hua

M

ings

heng

Dun

nan

NeihuScience

Park district

Fusi

ng N

anjin

g

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 99

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

A number of great office buildings were completed in 2014 in Zhong Shan and Nan Gang district and thus more than 40000 tsubo of office spaces were provided In the meanwhile the office demand in Taipei grow Consequently there is a downward trend in the vacancy rate of office buildings which was below 7 in Q4 2016

By the end of 2017 lsquoTaipei Nan Shan Plazarsquo around Taipei 101World Trade Center Station and the headquarter of Taiwan Cooperative Bank around Nanjing Fuxing Station will be completed and thus 70000 tsubo of new office spaces will be available As a result the vacancy rate of office buildings may remain high

Office vacancy rate rose to more than 9 in 2015

Supply of new offices and vacancy rates in Taipei City

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16New supply (left axis) Vacancy Rate (right axis)Completion of Taipei 101

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Completion of FargloryFinancial Center

The headquarter buildings of Taiwan Cooperative Bank and China Trust were completed

Area

of n

ew s

uppl

y (P

ing)

Vaca

ncy

rate

()

Source NRI based on the Taiwan real estate yearbookNote The bar chart indicates the total area of annual new supply

New office buildings under

construction

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 100

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The average A-class office rental prices of CBD in Taipei is NTD2385 per tsuboper month (around yen8603 per tsubo per month)

Overview of major office areas (Q2 2017)

District Supply floor space (Tsubo)

A-class office Vacancy rate

()

B-class office Vacancy rate

()

A-class office avg rent

(NTDTsubomonth)

B-class office avg rent

(NTD Tsubo month)

Taipei station district 60310 55 15 2200 1706

Chung Shan North district 32932 -- 47 -- 1747

Songjiang Nanjing district 260955 182 84 1995 1762

Minsheng Dun Hua N district 262776 90 55 2277 1755

Dun HuaJen-Ai district 175763 70 42 2450 1787

Xinyi district 311328 102 31 3001 1721

Average rent 2385 NTDTsubomonth

Source NRI based on CBRE data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 101

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The number of office construction license issuance decreased significantly in the first half year of 2016 Accordingly the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

The number of construction license issuance has reduced since 2014 and thus the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

Source NRI based on statistics by the CPAMI ROC(Taiwan)

Number of office construction license issuance and total floor space licensed for construction in Taipei City

444080

926739

544258

207831

314769

461971 438809 416413 394913

1123336

556589

364330

273704

542545

408558 416577

116354 -

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Floor area squares (right asix)

License amount(left axis)

Jan-Jul

No

of c

onst

ruct

ion

licen

se is

sued

Tota

l hou

ses

spac

e of

con

stru

ctio

n lic

ense

issu

ed (m

2 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 102

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The existing offices in Taipei metropolitan are mainly located in central Taipei The outer metropolitan region such as Zin-Ban Fuchung Area and Nankang Area have been regenerated in the

recent years Accordingly the number of new office buildings has increased in these areas

Three new CBDs around central Taipei have been developed recently and thus the supply of commercial buildings is predicted to increase

TaipeiMain Sta

XimenArea

DunpeiAreaNanjing E

Rd Area

XinyiArea

NankangArea

Zin-BanFuchung

AreaFar EsternMemorialHospital

Area

Taipei City

DunnanArea

Existing Office Area

New Office Area

Zin-Ban Fuchung Areabull Rent 1300NTDTsubobull Zin-Ban Special Zone is located around

Banqiao station which is a terminal station of TRA MRT Taiwan-HSR

bull The highest office in Shinipei City ldquoFar Eastern Buildingrdquo(50F) has been opened in Jul 2013

MRT Far Estern Memorial Hospital Areabull Rent1200 NTDTsubobull New area of office with almost bran-

new officebull The most famous office of this area

is T-park built by FEG Group

Nankang Areabull Rent1200 -1300 NTDTsubobull This Area is expected as a new CBD of

Taipei because of being a terminal station of TSHR and 2 lines of MRT

bull Numerous offices have been and will be constructed in this area

Shinpei City

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 103

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 104

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

Since Taoyuan has been designated as a special municipality the population of it growth dramatically The Taipei Metropolis is reshaped where 40 of total population live in it

The location and population (2015) of Taipei City Keelung City and Shinpei City

Taipei CityPopulation 269 million

Keelung City Prpulation 037 million

Shinpei City Population 397 million

Taoyuang City Population 217 million

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 105

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a significant population growth in West Taipei Metropolitan area especially in West Shinipei City

Population Changes in Taipei City and Shinipei City over the last 5 years (2011-2015)

Shinpei City

TaoyuanCity

Keelung City

Greater Taipei Area

Taipei CityNew-Town regionDanshui

Linkou

Sanxia

MRT development

region

LegendAvg annual growth rate

-2 le CAGR lt -1-1 le CAGR lt 00 le CAGR lt 11 le CAGR lt 22 le CAGR lt 3

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 106

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The population of East and West Shinipei City and the central Taoyuan City has increased greatly which lead to soaring property prices in these areas

CAGR of the Land Price of Residential District in Taipei Metropolitan over the last 5 years (2013~2017)

Legend

0 le CAGR lt 2

2 le CAGR lt 4

4 le CAGR lt 6

6 le CAGR lt 8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 107

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The construction of MRT is one of the causes of the accelerating urban sprawl

MRT construction status around Taipei Metropolitan Area

【Distance from Taipei City 10km】

【Distance from Taipei City 5km】Wugu

Taishan

Xinzhuang

Luzhou

Banqiao

Zhonghe

Xindian

Muzha

Nangang

Neihu

Xizhi

Danshui

Beitou

Dazhi

Sanchong

Danshui

Xin-beitou

Luzhou

New Taipei Industrial Park

YongningDingpu

Fu Jen UnivHuilong

Sanchong

Nanshijiao

Jingan

GutingCKS Memorial Hall

Zimen

MinquanW Rd

Taipei Main

Station

Taipei Zoo

Songshan

Taipei NangangExhibition Center

SongshanAirport

Dapinglin

Xiaobitan

Xindian

To TaoyuanAirport

Banqiao

Elephant Mt

ZhongxiaoXinsheng

Shulin

Line Section Year opened

Neihu-Muzha Line

Zhongshan Junior High School hArr Taipei Zoo Mar 1996

Zhongshan Junior High School hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Jul 2009

Danshui Line Danshui hArr Taipei Main Station Mar 1997

Zhonghe Line Guting hArr Nanshijiao Dec 1998

Xindian Lian Taipei Main Station hArr Xindian Nov 1999

Nangang-Banqiao Line

Longshan Temple hArr Taipei City Hall Aug 1999

Longshan Temple hArr Xinpu Aug 2000

Taipei City Hall hArr Kunyang Dec 2000

Xinpu hArr Yongning May 2006

Kunyang hArr Nangang Dec 2008

Yongning hArr Dingpu Dec 2014

Nangang hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Feb 2011

Luzhou Line Luzhou hArr Zhongxiao Xinsheng Nov 2010

XinzhuangLine

Fu Jen Univ hArr Daqiaotou Jan 2012

Zhongxiao Xinsheng hArr Guting Sep 2012

Huilong hArr Fu Jen Univ Mar 2013

Xinyi Line CKS Memorial HallhArr Elephant Mt Dec 2013

Songshan Line Songshan hArr Ximen Nov 2014

TaoyuanAirport MRT Taipei Main Station hArr Jhongli Mar 2017

Circular Line New Taipei Industrial Park hArr Dapinglin Jun 2018

Wanta Line CKS memorial hall hArr Huilong Dec 2020

Source)NRI based on the MRT Construction Dep Of Taipei City Gov

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 108

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The price of new properties in the centre of Taipei is over 1 million per tsubo And luxury real estate price in Xinyi District even reaches 3 million per tsubo

47-58

24-36

40-56

75-105

60-83

42-65

34-4838-52

43-52

90-13064-8230-40

40-6075-105

74-95

75-106

125-290

34-45

26-40

45-62

48-63

72-107

85-150120-166

113-145

48-75

87-130

45-60

125-285

88-140

72-125

85-140

46-5660-80

88-12550-65

42-63

55-78

Unit housing prices at major areas near MRT station in Taipei City and Shinipei City (Unit10000 NTD Tsubo)

Source NRI based on My Housingcom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 109

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The property price had increased steady since 2003 and reached the apex in 2013 And after that the housing price drops

Transition of housing price index

Source NRI based on Cathay Real Estatersquos Housing Index quarterly report

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Taipei City

Shinpei City

Taoyuang amp Hsinchu Region

Hou

sing

pric

e in

dex Financial Crisis

2011 Practice of Specifically Selected Goods and Services Tax Act2012 Practice of Registering the Actual Transaction Price of Real Estate2016 Practice of Consolidated Housing and Land Taxes

Note2010=100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prices of 2017 Q2Taipei City 8199 thsdTsuboShinpei City 3459 thsd TsuboTaoyuang City 2137 thsd Tsubo

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 110

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a downward trend in the number of issued housing construction license of Taipei Shinipei and Taoyuan City and thus the growth rate of new buildings are expected lower than before

While several mega infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the MRT system will be delivered in Shinipei and TaoyuanCity soon and besides Urban Regeneration Act will be modified to make the regeneration process more efficient Therefore housing supply is expected to grow in the long-term

There has been a downward trend in the number of construction license issuance recently in major cities of North Taiwan

The Number of housing construction license issuance

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Taipei City Shinpei City Taoyuang City

(No) (No)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Case No

Householde No

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

NoteThe statistic number of year 2017 only involve that from Jan to Jul

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 111

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The level of the average rental price is extremely low in Taipei City and Shinipei City and cap rates of residential buildings in these two cities ranges between 2 and 35

Cap rates of properties in Taipei City and Shinpei City

Location

Taipei City Shinpei City

Zhongshan Dist(Near MRT Shuanglian Sta)

Neihu Dist(Near MRT Songshan Sta)

Xinyi Dist(Near MRT Taipei 101 World

Trade Center Sta)

Banqiao Dist(Near MRT Baqiao Sta)

Layout 2LDK 2LDK 2LK 2LDK

Area(tsubo) 21 28 25 26

Age(year) 17 11 3 8

Rent(NTDYear) 29 thousand 32 thousand 87 thousand 41 thousand

Price(NTD) 1237 million 1509 million 2580 million 1672 million

Cap rate () 234 212 195 245

Source NRI based on interviews with owners material by 591com etc

Residential building indicate the properties that above 11 floor and have the elevator

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 112

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 113

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

International tourists visiting the Taiwan are composed of 50 Japanese and Chinese Recently the government has planned to attract more tourists from southeast Asia which is regarded as the third

biggest market after Japan and China

The tourist reduces caused by the relationship between two counties to be at a standstill While Taiwan Government is planning to attract tourists from Southeast Asia

The number of foreign tourists to Taiwan (By place of residence)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mainland

Japan

Hong Kong

Southeast Asia

Others Deregulation of group toursof mainland Chinese

Deregulation of individual toursof mainland Chinese

Japan190 million

5058

South-East Asia165 million

28312978

2248

29503378 3520

37163845

4395

5567

6087

7056

8016

9910

2624

10439

10690

Mainland351 million

Hong Kong161 million

Fore

ign

tour

ists

am

ount

(tho

usan

d pe

rson

)

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 114

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of hotel rooms has been increased since 2010 and the number of that reaches 11 thousand and the occupancy rate of accommodation remain high which exceeds 70

The number of guest rooms and occupancy rates of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Note Tourist hotels are hotels that meet the criteria set by the Tourism Bureau of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications and are broken down into international tourist hotels and general tourist hotels according to their levels There are 27 international tourist hotels and 17 standard tourist hotels in Taipei at the end of December 2016

9202 8879 8324 8013 7786 7738 7898 8323 8313 8313 8403 8834 8834

1306 12631263 1263 1383 1357

19742040 2040 2275 2330

2386 2386

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

InternationalTourist Hotels

StandardTourist Hotels

+85+50 -01 +23 +14

0

No

of g

uest

room

7202 7668 7694 7239 6931 7382 7566 7933 7869 8043 7867Std Tourist Hotels

OccupancyRate

6930 7495 7532 7216 7114 7564 7540 7772 7590 7742 7495Intrsquol Tourist Hotels

7722

7696

7689

7111

+45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 115

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of tourists visiting Taipei increases and the hotel prices rise accordingly

The average price of guest rooms of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Aver

age

pric

e of

gue

st ro

oms

(NTD

per

nig

ht)

34113565

38014015 4050

37073848

41074394

4713 4831 4811 4761

1848 1893 1986 2013 2039 21502370

26722931

3133

34723671 3703

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

International tourist hotelStandard tourist hotel

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 116

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 117

(Reference)

Regional Map of Singapore

Core Central Region and Rest of Central Region

NORTH WEST

SOUTHWEST CENTRAL

SINGAPORE

NORTH EAST SOUTH

EAST

Woodlands North Business Park

International Business Park(Jurong Area)

Jurong Island

Changi Business ParkChangi Air HubBedok

Tampines

OrchardSomerse

The MainCommercial AreaIndustrial Park

BugisJurong EastJurong West

DowntownMarina Bay

Core Central Region is postal districts 9 10 11Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa(BlueYellow and Pink)Rest of Central Region is the area within red line except Core Central RegionOutside Central Region is outside the red line of the area

SourceURA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 118

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 119

Population Trend

Population growth for non-residents and permanent residents began to grow rapidly from 1990s while the growth of the citizen base is largely attributed to permanent residents taking up citizenship in Singapore

Singaporersquos open immigration policy has allowed population to increase very rapidly but growth is expected to be moderate with tightening of immigration policy

Population in Singapore (lsquo000)

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics Board amp UN Population Data

Forecast rarrlarrActual

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-Residents

PR

Citizens

Total

A balanced moderate immigration policy is assumed for estimation of population growth from 2016-2050Non Residents includes population residing in Singapore for long-term but do not hold PR or Citizenship (eg EP Worker Pass etc)

CAGR(1970-2015)

99

39

17

28

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 120

Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP

Singapore has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world and far surpasses neighboring countries in the region

GDP per capita is also expected to continue growing from 2017-2020

Source NRI based on IMF

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Nominal GDP per Capita (USD)

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 121

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

Despite the strong GDP per capita figures Singaporersquos growth rate remains volatile due to the nature of its open economy

Effects of business cycles exerts a more pronounced effect on GDP growth rate as the Singapore economy is closely linked to the global trade cycle

Source NRI based on IMF data

Real GDP growth rate of major economies ()

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SingaporeThailand

MalaysiaIndonesia

Dot-com Bubble Burst

Global Financial

Crisis

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Actual Standard Deviation

(2000-2016)

09242542

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 122

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

This is not surprising given that net exports of goods amp services constitute more than one quarter of the Singaporersquos economy

Both domestic amp external consumption (net exports of goods amp services) are volatile and could potentially exhibit relatively large swings in periods of economic growth and recession

Source NRI based Singapore Statistics Board

Share of GDP by Expenditure ()

23 26 27 24 22 25 26 26

2926 26 27 28 27 26 25

10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11

37 36 36 37 37 37 37 37

2011

2 20 3 3

2009 2010 2012

2

2016

345169 376826322361 358517 406242390185 408686

1 0

281090

20142013 2015Net Exports Of Goods And Services

Changes In InventoriesPrivate Consumption ExpenditureGovernment Consumption Expenditure

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 123

Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate stayed in the negative range in 2015 -2016 period as a result of declining oil prices etc but expected to recover in 2017

Inflation rate is expected to stay rise between 05 - 15 in 2017 based on forecasts by economists from various investment banks This will be due to a rise in energy costs as well as fading of the temporary disinflationary effects of budgetary measures

Source NRI based on IMF data

Annual y-o-y change in Singaporersquos CPI ()

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 124

Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate

The SGD has generally been on an appreciating trend being adjusted and watched very closely by the central bank as a tool to keep prices stable

The Singapore Dollar does not exhibit much volatility as it operates under a managed float system within an undisclosed band pegged to an undisclosed basket of currencies

Source NRI based Monetary Authority of Singapore

S$ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER)

Appreciation

Depreciation

S$NEER reflects exchange rates against a basket of currencies instead of any single currencyIndex Jan 1999 = 100

05

055

06

065

07

075

08

085

98

103

108

113

118

123

128

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD

SG

D

S$N

EER

IND

EX

USDSGD

S$NEER

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 125

Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance

In spite of the relatively high level of government debt Singapore continues to be a net creditor country with AAA ratings from international credit rating agencies

Borrowings by the Singapore are matched by even higher levels of assets and the country does not run any fiscal deficits

The government is instead borrowing in order to issue debt securities which are required in the domestic bond market to provide a risk-free benchmark against other corporate debt securities

Ratio of Government Debt to GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Source NRI based on IMF data

Ratio of Government Primary Net LendingBorrowing to GDP ()

Forecast rarrlarrActual

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2017 2019 20212015 20182012 201620142009 2011 20202013

Singapore

IndonesiaMalaysia

Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 126

Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks

Consistently ranked among the top 10 countries with the lowest public perception of corruption political risks in Singapore remains low

Low political risks is one of the factors in Singapore that have contributed to a conducive environment for business amp investment

Source NRI based on Transparency International Data

Trend of Transparency International Corruption Perception Index among selected ASEAN Countries (2016)

Top 10 countries of International Corruption Perception Index(Higher ranking indicates lower risk)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

A lower score indicates greater negative perception of public sector corruption

RANK 2014 2015 2016

1 DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK

2 NEW ZEALAND FINLAND NEW ZEALAND

3 FINLAND SWEDEN FINLAND

4 NORWAY NEW ZEALAND SWEDEN

5 SWITZERLAND NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND

6 SINGAPORE NORWAY NORWAY

7 NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND SINGAPORE

8 INDONESIA SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS

9 LUXEMBORG CANADA CANADA

10 CANADA GERMANY GERMANY

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 127

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 128

Office market- Geographic Area

76 of the existing office is located at CBD area Singapore government extends the Central Business District towards Marina Bay to support the demand of quality office spaces

Major Office Area in Singapore Central Business District

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority Master Plan Mapletree Commercial Trust

Site area (ha)

Total DevelopmentGFA (mil sqm)

Total Office GFA (mil sqm)

31 177 11

85 415 282 (estimated)

24 16 11 (estimated)

Raffles Place

Extension of existing financial district

Recent developments

Office Area in Singapore2015

CBD Core sub-market

50

Fridge CBD26

Decentralised sub-market

24

bull Existing central business district is located at Raffles Place Shenton Way and Tanjong Pagar

bull To position Singapore as one of the leading financial hub government plans to double the size of the existing financial center by extending towards Marina Bay

bull Recent developments is expected to provide more than 11 million sqm of premium office space upon completion

CBD Core sub-market Raffles Place Shenton Way Marina Centre Marina BayFringe CBD Tanjong Pagar Beach Road City Hall Orchard RoadDecentralized sub-market Alexandra HarbourFront Thomson Novena Tampines River Valley

Raffles Place

Shenton Way

TanjongPagar

Marina Bay

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 129

Office market- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate decreased gradually from 2015Q2 to 2016Q2 It has started to increase since 2016Q3 when major office developments were completed

Office Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

7456 7455

7408

7553 7575 7583

7580

7559 7536

7563

7664 7730

7761

7837

10 96

84

102 10298

9695 92 91

104111

116124

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7250

7350

7450

7550

7650

7750

7850

7950

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

rsquo000 sq m nett

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 130

Office market- Price and Rental Index

Office rent has been in downwards trend since 1Q15 due to significant increase in supply in 4Q14 The capital value of office space stagnates due to the downward pressure of the declining rental

Price and Rental Index of Office Space in Central Region

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Price Index Rental Index

Index

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Note 1) The price indices are compiled from information in caveats (A legal document lodged by a purchaser to protect

her his interests after an option to purchased is exercised or a Sales amp Purchase Agreement is signed) lodged at the option stage with the Singapore Land Registry The price in 4Q98 are used as the base reference price of the index

2) Rental Index of office space are obtained from Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS)

bull The Singapore office rental market performed well in 2014 due to tight market conditions However office rental growth has been subdued since the first quarter of 2015

bull Price of office property had been stagnant since the first quarter of 2015 and eventually fall due to underperforming rental market and increasing supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 131

Office market- Future Supply

A sharp rise in office space supply is expected to outstrip the growth in demand in the coming years The pressure on vacancy rate is expected to rise

Pipeline Supply of Office Space in Singapore

367

185

20

138

36 400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 gt2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Property Total Office GFA (lsquo000 sqf)

Expected year of completion

Vision Exchange 475 January 2017

Oxley Tower 130 January 2017

UIC Building 276 April 2017

Marina One 1800 April 2017

Frasers Tower 690 April 2018

Robinson Tower 195 April 2018

Paya Lebar Quarter 8835 December 2018

Central Boulevard 1000 Q2 2020

Golden Shoe Car Park 1000 Q1 2021

Source Corporate Locations

bull Out of the office supply from 2015 Q2 to 2018 Q4 528 is located in the Core CBD 311 in the Fridge CBD and the remaining in the Decentralized sub-markets

bull Around one-fifth of the future supply is sold on a strata-titled basis it means more investment opportunity for investors that are looking for smaller and more affordable individual unit of office space

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 132

Office market- Cap rate

Cap rate of office in CBD area in 2016 is around 38 in average

2016 Capitalization Rate of Office in CBD

3938 39 42 39

3838 38 38 38

00

10

20

30

40

50

Cap rate ()

Source CapitaLand Commercial Trust 2016 annual report Keppel REIT 2016 annual report

REIT Asset Type InvestmentProperties

CapitalandCommercial Trust

bull Office (70)bull Retail (18)bull Hotel and

Convention Centre (12)

By gross rental income

bull Capital Towerbull Six Battery Roadbull One George Streetbull Raffles City Towerbull CapitaGreenbull Twenty Ansonbull HSBC Building

Keppel REIT bull Office bull Ocean Financial Centre

bull Marina Bay Financal Centre

bull One Raffles Quaybull Bugis Junction

Towers

Office REIT in Singapore

bull Capitaland Commercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust Suntec REIT OUE Commercial REIT are the major office REIT in Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 133

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 134

Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling

CAGR of condominiums market is much higher than that of HDB Foreigners cannot purchase of HDB according to Residential Property Act imposing restrictions on foreigners in

1973

More households stay in condominiums and other apartments over the years while the percentage of households living in HDB flats is slowly going down in the last 5 years

9359 9437 9484 9395 9618 9652 9811 10115

1178 1320 1269 1399 1437 1618 1708 1824

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HDB Condominiums amp Other Apartments

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics

Number of Households by Type of Dwelling in Singapore

(lsquo000)

HDBHousing amp Development Board public housing in Singapore

CAGR 562

CAGR 098

Condominiums

HDB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 135

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Around 50 of transactions for units outside Central Region dropped from 2012 to 2014 Several property cooling measures such as introducing 60 cap from 80 on the Total Debt Serving Ratio (DSR)

and 30 cap on the Mortgage Servicing Ratio(MSR) in 2013 badly affected the number of sales transactions

Dramatically dropped the demand for Private Residential Units since 2013 due to property cooling measures

(units)

Source NRI based on URA

Number of Sales transactions for Private Residential Units by area

4832 5028 3695 1976 1859

8943 90976861

4058 3828

1886523748

12163

6813 8430

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Core Central Region Rest Central Region Outside Central Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 136

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Minimum Cash Down Payment is getting higher from 10 to 25 when you purchase the 2nd and subsequent Residential property

Foreigners have an obligation to pay 15 ABSD of sales price of residential

Drastic drop of transactions of Private Residential is due to strict restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013 in addition to introduction of higher cap on DSR and MSR

1st Housing 2nd Housing 3rd Housing

LTV Limit 80 or 60 60 or 40rArr50 or 30

60 or 40rArr40 or 20

Minimum Cash Down Payment 5 (for LTV of 80) 10 (for LTV of 60) 10rArr25 10rArr25

BSD1 on first $1800002 on next $1800003 for the remainder

ABSD(Singapore Citizens) Not applicable Not applicable rArr7 3rArr10

ABSD(Foreigners) 10rArr15

LTV Loan to Value BSDhellipBuyerrsquos Stamp DutyABSDhellipAdditional Buyerrsquos Stamp DutyIf the loan tenure is more than 30 years or extends past age 65

Change of Governmental Restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013

Source NRI based on IRAS and MAS

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 137

Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate

From 2013 to 2014 vacant rate got dramatically high compared to the change from 2011 to 2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Occupied Vacant

5061

53

7989 86

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Current Stock and Vacancy of Private Residential Units (Including Executive Condominium)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 138

Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property

Sales Price Index has gradually dropped in 2013 due to higher vacancy rate over the years

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4

Sales Index of Private Residential

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 139

Residential market ndashFuture Supply

The rise in Private Residential Unites can be seen in the next years The number of new Private Residential units seems to decrease at Core Central Region

The supply for Outside Central Region is expected to be the largest for the next 5 years

1850

3578

727 661480

3862

3820

3233 3591

514

4550

7180

54963137

4099

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Core Central Region Rest of Central Region Outside Central Region

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Supply in the Pipeline of Private Residential Units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 140

Residential market-Cap Rate

Capitalization rate has been dropping due to the higher vacancy rate

29 29

24

28

24 2321 21

27 2724

2826

2422 22

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

()

Claymore HillAdmore Park(Upper Class) River Valley(Middle Class)

Capitalization Rate for Upper class and Middle class

Source NRI based on Japan Association of Real Estate Appraisers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 141

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 142

Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate

Vacancy Rate is getting higher which causes gradual increase of availability of floor space after Q1 of 2015

56335698

57175766

58185914

59485973

59495971

5990

6019

60366046

6017

603553

45

58 5965

58

6872 70 72 73

7884

75 77 81

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5400

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

20133Q

20134Q

20141Q

20142Q

20143Q

20144Q

20151Q

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Available Floor Space Vacancy Rate

Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate of Retail

(000 sq m)

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 143

Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space

Those prices were stable until 2014 but due to slowdown of demand for retail space vacancy rate is increasing and affects both of these index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space is going down affected by the higher vacancy rate in every quarter in 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Price Index Rental Index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space in Central Region

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 144

Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore

Thanks to internet accessibility high penetration of mobile devices and strong governmental support for online retailers in Singapore attract consumers to shopping online instead of going all the way to malls

Consumers previously shopped at brick-and-mortal stores now prefer to shift shopping online retailers which causes lower demand for physical shopping spaces

2611

3533

25542338

1446 1563

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Average Top 20 Top 21~40

Top 41~60

Top 61~80

Top 81~100

(SGD)

2015 2025(Estimate)Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Singapore 48 21 81 67Malaysia 91 11 152 54Thailand 113 08 202 55Vietnam 67 06 160 47Philippines 100 05 206 47Indonesia 238 06 575 80

E-Commerce market size in SEA and monthly average amount of Online shopping in Singapore by Income group

Source NRI based on Google Temasek and Department of Statistics of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 145

Retail market-CAP Rate

South East Region has highest Cap Rate according to the CAP Rate of the main malls in Singapore

Retail Capitalization Rate by Core Central Region and Other Regions

50

52

54

56

58

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Central Core Region South EastNorth West South West

Source NRI based on Capital Land Frasers Centerpoiint and SPH REIT

Central Core RegionJunction 8AtriumBugis+ Clarke Quay Paragon Wisma Atria Ngee Ann City Bugis Junction Plaza Singapura

South EastTampines Mall Bedok Point Changi City Point

North WestBukit Panjang Plaza Causeway Point Northpoint Lot One Shopperrsquos Mall Yew Tee Point

South WestJcube Clementi MallData for 2010 and 2011 are not available because Jcubeand Clementi Mall was open in 2011 and 2012 respectively

List of Malls for Capitalization Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 146

Retail market- Future Supply

This is in line with governmentrsquos strategy ldquoWork-Live-Playrdquo solutions decentralizing working and living function to Outside Central Region

New retail supply will be suburbs especially Outside Central Region and large proportion of OCR retail will be in the East

Central34

South East30

NorthWest23

North East13

Project name and location Area Name of Developer Gross Floor Area

Expected year of final TOP

Hotelretail development at Airport Boulevard

SouthEast

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

90000 sq m

na

Northpoint City at Yishun Central 1

North West

North Gem Development Pte LtdFC North Gem Trustee Pte Ltd

39050 sq m

2018

Additionsalterations and extension to existing Singapore Post Centre at Eunos Road 8

South East

Singapore Post Limited 25000 sq m

na

Hillion Mall at Jelebu Road North West

Sim Lian JV (BP Retail) Pte LtdSim Lian JV (BP) Pte Ltd

20490 sq m

na

Officeretail development for Changi Airport Terminal 4 at Airport Boulevard

South East

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

19710 sq m

na

Proportion of Future Retail Supply by locations in 2016-2018 and the 5 largest pipelines in Singapore

Source NRI based on URA IE Singapore DBS

( Based on the sq m)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 147

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 148

Logistics Space- Geographic Area

Most of the warehouse space is located in the eastern and western part of Singapore

Source Google map NRI created based on public information

Hankyu Hanshin Express Singapore ( 1 )

Company name(Number of warehouse)【Legend】

Sumitomo Warehouse (Singapore) Pte Ltd ( 2 )

Sankyu (Singapore) PTE LTD ( 6 )

KEPPEL TampT ( 5 )

MAPALE TREE ( 50 )

SCHENKER SINGAPORE (PTE) LTD ( 11 )

Kintetsu World Express ( 2 )Acsendas ( 23 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 149

Logistics Space- Demand Trend

Manufacturing activities has been expanding in the past 13 months Industrial space market is expected to improve gradually

Singapore Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) Container Traffic of Singapore Port

PMI

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb-

15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb-

16

Apr

-16

Jun-

16

Aug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb-

17

Apr

-17

Jun-

17

Aug

-17

Note Singapore PMI measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 400 industrial companiesSource Singapore Institute of Purchasing amp Materials Management (SIPMM)

279299

259284

299316

326339

309 309

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

million TEUs

Source Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 150

Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate reduced gradually from 2016Q3 to 2017Q1 but increased in the most recent quarter following the higher rate of increase in warehouse space supply

Warehouse Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

79 82 83 84 85 86 87 89 91 93 94 95 96 101

89

115

96

82

100

84

75

86

96

110 109

103101

119

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Thousands sq m

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 151

Logistics Space- Rental Index

Warehouse rental is on the downward trend in recent years

Rental Index of Warehouse in Singapore

Index

Note 1) Before 4th Quarter 2014 the rental index is computed based on transactions in the Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 the scope of the rental index is expanded to

include transactions outside Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 and 1st Quarter 2016 the weights used are fixed using 2012 and 2015 transaction values respectively

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 152

Logistics Space- Future Supply

There will be a total of 084 million sqm GFA of warehouse space expected to be completed by 2021 and a surge in supply in 2017

Pipeline Supply of Warehouse in Singapore

394

162135 140

130

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Project Description Name of Developer GFA (sq m)

Expected year of completion

Poh Tiong Choon Logistics Hub at Pandan Road

Poh Tiong ChoonLogistics Ltd 50940 2017

Warehouse Development at Benoi Road GKE Warehousing amp Logistics Pte Ltd 39760 2017

Warehouse Development at PioneerRoad

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 71680 2017

Warehouse Development at JalanAhmad Ibrahim Tuas Avenue 1

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 44310 2018

JTC Logistics Hub Gul Circle JTC Corporation 95310 2019

Warehouse Development at Tuas South Avenue 14

Diamond Land Pte Ltd 65230 2020

Major Projects in the Pipeline as of 2017 Q2

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 153

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 154

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)

Visitor arrivals into Singapore has been increasing steadily since the 2008 global recession with numbers reaching stable levels in recent years

The increase in visitors can be attributed to increasing flight capacities into Singapore especially new direct connecting flights to secondary Chinese cities as well as an increase low-cost carriers (LCC) within SEA region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore (millions) (by mode of transport) (2007-2016)

103 10197

116

132

145

156151 152

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Land

Sea

Air

Total

CAGR 45 164

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 155

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)

Indonesia China Malaysia amp Australia constitute the top four largest countries for visitor numbers in Singapore

Visitor numbers from these countries have remained in the top four ranking boosted by the services of regional low cost-carriers in the region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Top visitors by nationalities () 2010-2014

197 1960 198 200 179

120 1400 146 114 138

87 850 8282 77

73 720 7271 69

523 507 502 533 537

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Indonesia China Malaysia Australia Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 156

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)

More than half of the visitors into Singapore are here for leisure purposes and 1 in 5 are here for business purposes

The high percentage of visitors coming to Singapore for leisure purposes suggests that initiatives to boost tourism in Singapore has been considerably successful in attracting visitors into the country

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Main Purpose of Visit () 2015

58 59 56

43

77

2013

1333

812 20

2115

6

10 8 10 9 9

Total Indonesia China Malaysia Australia

Leisure Business Others Not stated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 157

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)

Indeed though visitor numbers are relatively stable throughout the year they tend to peak during festive occasions or promotional periods

The peak from June to August can be attributed to the annual Great Singapore Sale an event organized by Singapore Tourism Bard amp Singapore Retailers Association to promote tourism in Singapore

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore

Great Singapore Sale

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20162013

2011

2009

F1 Grand Prix

End-of year

Holidays

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 158

Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply

While hotel room supply continues to increase each year post-recession occupancy rates have also stabilized staying close to 85 levels

Recent significant additions to hotel supply include Westin Singapore Marina Bay (2014) Sofitel So Singapore (2014) Holiday Inn Express (2014) amp Patina Hotel (2015)

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Available Room Nights (lsquo000) amp Occupancy Rate ()

84858686878685

81

76

12378

2010

11262

14241

2013

13118

10589

2015

15131

20142012

12451

2011

+54

2016

16162

2009

10875

2008

Average Occupancy Rate ()Available Room Nights

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 159

Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue

With the exception of luxury segment all other room segments are witnessing slight declines in room rates and RevPar

This downward pressure on rates and revenues is expected to continue as the influx of new hotel rooms continue for the next few years

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Average Room Rates by Room Segment (S$)Average Revenue per Available Room (RevPar) (S$) by Room Segment

4314 43594618 4491 4482

3014

2685 2668 2651 2612

1971 1906 1852 1749 1698

1107 1004 1098 1050 987

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

35183840

40433885 3812

2647

2307 2325 2282 2216

1708 1650 1573 1495 1453

940 846 878 833 777

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

Luxury - Includes hotels in the luxury segment and are predominantly in prime locations andor in historical buildings Upscale - Includes hotels in the upscale segment and are generally in prime locations or hotels with boutique positioning in prime or distinctive location Mid-Tier - Includes hotels in the mid-tier segment and are primarily located in prime commercial zones or immediately outlying areasEconomy - Includes hotels in the budget segment and are generally located in outlying areas

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 160

Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline

The hotel industry in Singapore braces itself for a large supply influx of new rooms with more than 2000 rooms slated to be completed by end of 2017 alone

The influx of new rooms is the greatest since the completion of the two integrated resorts in Marina Bay Sands (MBS) amp Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in 2010 and 2011 respectively

Source NRI based on various sources Straits Times TODAY etc

Source NRI based on Urban Redevelopment Authority

Number of Hotel Rooms in the Pipeline Selected RecentFuture Hotel Developments (2017)

60908

2565

2464

1331

182

342

582344

58000

60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber o

f hot

el ro

oms

Existing Under Construction

Planned (Written Permission) Planned (Provisional Permission)

ExpectedCompletion Year Hotel Name No of

Rooms

2017 JW Mariott Hotel Singapore South Beach 634

2017 The Warehouse Hotel 37

2017 Ascott Orchard Singapore 220

2017 Park Hotel Farrer Park 300

2017 Santa Grand Hotel Boat Quay 41

2017 Sofitel Singapore City Centre 223

2017 Andaz Singapore 342

2017 Courtyard by Marriott Singapore Novena 250

2017 The Duxton Club 49

2017 YOTEL Singapore 600

2017 Novotel Singapore on Stevens 254

CAGR 31

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 161

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 162

REIT Market

S-REIT has grown rapidly since the successful launch of the first REIT in 2002 S-REIT market capitalization has now attained a scale of USD 556 billion

Market Capitalization of REIT In USD Billion 2002- 2017

There are 38 listed REITs as of the end of June 2017

Source NRI based on Capital IQ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 163

REIT Market

Recent yield spread between S-REIT has also stayed close to 5

Although the S-REIT dividend yield rose sharply in 2009 due to fears that the mortgage crisis would spread to Singapore it has remained at approximately 7 since then

Source NRI based on Bloomberg

Average S-REIT dividend yield and spread with 10-year Singapore government bond

()

0

5

10

15

20

25

Spread 10-year SGB Yield Average Dividend Yield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 164

REIT Market

Retail Industrial and Office REIT are the major type of REIT in Singapore S-REITs also diversify into residential hotel amp resort healthcare and data center industry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized

Market Capitalization of REIT by Asset TypeIn USD Billion 2003- 2017

Asset Composition (2017)

SpecializedHealthcareHospitalityResidentialDiversified

Office

Industrial

Retail

18348232

122

160

245

306

1 Office1 Industrial 2 Retail

1 Healthcare1 Hospitality1 Residential1 Diversified3 Office4 Industrial 5 Retail

2 Healthcare1 Hospitality2 Residential1 Diversified3 Office7 Industrial 7 Retail

1 Specialized2 Healthcare5 Hospitality1 Residential4 Diversified6 Office9 Industrial 9 Retail

Number of REIT by asset type

Source Capital IQ

Chart1

Retail
Industrial
Office
Diversified
Residential
Hospitality
Healthcare
Specialized
4919
2929
0
0
0
0
0
0
12344
6189
5458
0
0
0
0
0
24064
15716
7312
9248
0
0
0
0
35082
20048
14636
11758
3173
0
0
0
72317
42532
34987
1854
7953
1223
1446
0
6508
3439
26179
1561
762
10519
6422
0
4945
28821
20857
10018
3758
4861
5197
0
76738
47631
39742
17782
6188
1220
7522
0
104025
87777
5322
27407
12393
16405
13105
0
112013
93221
56364
24259
11898
1450
13616
0
130698
107712
68086
47917
15109
31961
17999
0
159443
115798
80495
64488
1741
4230
18342
0
163131
109375
75232
6225
16744
45395
18358
6831
168423
127015
82747
6425
13784
41719
19079
7627
172877
138636
90674
69255
18147
46492
18982
1031

Sheet1

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 165

REIT Market

S-REITs have geographically diversified portfolio with 36 of international asset

S-REIT Geographical Coverage by Asset ValueIn 2016

Singapore64

Hong Kong10

China6

Australia New

Zealand6

Japan South Korea

4

India3

Europe2

US1

Other Asia4

36 of the total asset value of Singapore REITs is contributed by foreign property asset

Overseas property assets are mainly located in Hong Kong China Australia and New Zealand

Geographically diversified portfolio is driven by these factorsbull Singapore-based REIT have to venture overseas market

due to the limited domestic real estate market Furthermore S-REIT is granted tax exemption on qualifying foreign-sources income from overseas property As of 2015 22 out of 34 S-REITs hold foreign real estate

bull Favorable tax environment in Singapore actively attracts foreign REIT to list in the country

Source DBS Bank

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 166

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 167

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 168

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population is around 66 million people Thailand is currently under military coup and the current reign of King Rama X started since October 2016

Source Department of Provincial Administration Official Statistics Registration Systems BMA Data Center The Bureau of Registration Administration Bank of Thailand Office of Ethnic Affairs National Real Estate Information Center

Country Name The Kingdom of Thailand

National Characteristic

Population 65931550 people (As of 2017)

Religion Buddhism (946) Islamism (42) Christianity (11) Hinduism Sikhism and Others (01) (As of 2014)

Ethnic Composition

Thai (987) Sino-Tibetan (08) Austroasiatic (03) Malayo-Polynesian (02) (As of 2012)

Political Structure

Political System Constitutional democracy

Head of State King Vajiralongkorn (King Rama X)

Head of Government Prime minister - General Prayut Chan-ocha

No of Ministries 20 ministries

Geographical Characteristic

Land Area 513208 kmsup2 (Japan = 377962 kmsup2)

Capital City Bangkok - Population 10765226 people (as of 2016)

Time Zone (UTC+0700) Bangkok Hanoi Jakarta

OthersCurrency Thai baht (100 Yen = 309084 Thai baht) (As of 10 April 2017)

Language Thai (Official language)

Overview of ThailandThailandrsquos map

Northern

NortheasternCentral

Eastern

West

South

Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 169

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos economy shows sign of recovery and is expected to expand continuously

Source IMF

14 17

-11

-54

42

-01

1520

03

12 10 1206 08

02 07 06

50 54

17

-07

75

08

72

27

09

29 32 30 33 32 31 30 30

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

Japan Thailand

It is expected that the growth of GDP of Thailand will be driven primarily from fiscal stimulus and tourist receipts The government policy about public investment in infrastructure advanced manufacturing and innovation-driven

projects recovery in services and private consumption could also underpin growth

GDP annual growth rate of Japan and Thailand in 2006-2022f

ForecastActual

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 170

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Service sector is a driver for GDP growth

GDP by Sector 2006-2015 (Current Value)

790 849 978 946 1138 1311 1422 1463 1330 1193

3299 3589 3843 37394325 4305 4625 4779 4878 4975

43124638

4886 4974

53465691

63106680 6996 7505

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector( as of 2015)

Services(5489)

CAGR 57

Industry(3639)

CAGR 42

Agriculture(872)

CAGR 42

Source World Bank Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 171

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Bangkok and vicinities have been the central of business in Thailand generating almost half of national GDP

Source Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

Gross Regional Product of Thailand 2006-2015

3915 4172 4380 4351 4774 4931 5377 5688 6027 6397

1481 1704 1812 1716

1966 2028 2255 2308

2392 2405

733 800 830 939

1055 1151 1278

1373 1312 1328

823 858

911 876

1069 1185

1163 1168 1141

1199

635 669

753 763

860 926

1102 1116 1100

1069

491 537

657 634

691 657

720 807 763

789

322 337

364 380

394 428

462 460 470

486

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities Eastern North Eastern Southern Northen Central Western

Eastern which ranks the second GDP generator is the special economic zone of the project Eastern Seaboard and the project Eastern Economic Corridor

Region( as of 2015)

Northeastern (971)

Eastern (1759)

Central (577)

Southern (877)

Northern (782)

Bangkok andvicinities (4679)

Western (356)

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 172

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos GDP per capita has been growing from 2006-2016 Among ASEAN it ranks the fourth after Singapore Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia

GDP per capita 2005-2016 ndash Thailand

128137

146 144160 167

182 189 191 197 204

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source IMF

52755

21497

9811

59403620 2978 2174 1865 1416 1235

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000THB thousands USD

GDP per capita 2016 ndash ASEAN countries

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 173

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Since flooding in Bangkok in 2011 interest rate has consistently declined to 150 and it is expected to stay at this level to boost Thai economic growth

Source Bank of Thailand

500

125150

487

212

504

583

272

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Rate T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 5 years T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 10 years

Rates at the end of month

Thailand interest rate in 2007-2017

Bank of Thailand announced to remain the implementation of the Expansionary Monetary Policy in order to strengthen Thailand economic situation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 174

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

THB had shown the depreciation against JPY after reaching the strongest point in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Exchange rate between THB to 100 JPY and THB to USD to THB in 2006-2017

Debt crisis in EuropeSubprime mortgage crisis in US Quantitative easing program implementation in Japan

3578

2907

3445

3048

2766

4104

2711

3128

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USD to THB 100 JPY to THB

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 175

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population has continually been aging and is expected to be aged society within 2025

National population by gender and age group in 2005 and 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Thailand 2005 Thailand 2015 Japan 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Source UN National Statistical Office

In 201518 of total population are 0-14 year age group and 10 are people over 65 years old It is predicted that within 2025 the proportion of age group of over 65 years will be 16 of total population defining

Thailand as aged society

(Thousands people)(Thousands people) (Thousands people)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 176

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

The number of households in Thailand is increasing while the family size tends to reduce The type of family changes from extend family to nuclear one

Thailand average household size in 2006-2015

Source Population and housing census Thailand National Real Estate Information Center

In 2016 Thailand has 21326000 households in total There is an increase in numbers of households in Bangkok and vicinities whereas the number of household in North Eastern which is the highest one has declined

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities North Eastern Northen

Southern Eastern Western

Central

Thousands households

34 3432 32 33 32 33 32 31

29

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Persons

Number of households by regions 2006-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 177

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Family living in Bangkok and vicinities earned the highest amount of income

Source National Statistical Office

Average annual household income in different regions in 2007-2015

RegionAverage annual household income (THB thousand)

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bangkok and vicinities 327 346 347 395 437

Eastern 227 240 271 317 332

Central 226 280 268 345 305

Southern 233 263 314 326 303

North Eastern 153 178 215 220 248

Western 193 214 205 256 245

Northern 157 186 203 232 234

Average 21657 24386 26043 29871 30057

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 178

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Household consumption House andor land Farming Business Education Others

163087

116681

134699 134900

156770

THB

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailand household debt to GDP decreased in 2017 but it is still considered at high level Household consumption and housing were the main purposes of borrowing

Average household debt to GDP in 2008-2017

517 524

579 593

662

718765

799 812 799

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average debt per household by purposes in 2007-2015

Thailand household debt to GDP had been rising for a decade and just showed the sign of decline due to the growth in GDP and shrinking in personal loan resulting from more stringent loan standard by banks

Spending on household consumption and house andor land contributed around 70 of average household debt in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 179

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Electric train transport will cover most areas of BKK within 2022 3 international airports (Don Mueang Suvarnabhumi and U-Tapao) will be linked by Airport Rail Link

Mass Rapid Transit System (MRT)

Source Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand

Line Route Start construction Open service

Current MRT network

Airport Rail Link Phaya Thai ndash Suvannabhumi Operating

Green Mo Chit ndash BearingNational Stadium ndash Bangwa Operating

Blue Bang Sue ndashHualumpong OperatingPurple Bang Yai ndash Bang Sue Operating

Planned projects

Dark RedThammasat University ndash Rangsit 2015 2018Rangsit ndash Bang Sue 2015 2020

Hua Lampong ndash Maha chai Planned Planned

Light RedTaling Chan ndash Bang Sue 2015 2018Bang Sue ndash Makksan - Hua Mak 2015 2018

Airport Rail Link Don Muang ndash Bang Sue ndash Phaya Thai 2015 2019

Dark GreenMo Chit - Khu Khot 2015 2020Bearing - Samutprakarn ndash Bangpu 2012 2019

Light GreenTaling Chan - Bangwa 2016 2021National Stadium ndash Yod Sae Planned Planned

BlueTha Phra - Bang Sue 2011 2019Hua Lumpong ndash Bang Kae 2011 2019Bang Kae - Putthanomthon Sai 4 2017 2021

Purple Taopun ndash Ratchburana 2012 2019

Orange Taling Chan ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Pink Khae Rai ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Yellow Lao Phro ndash Samrong 2017 2020Gold Krung Thonburi ndash Prachatipok 2017 2020Grey Vacharaphol ndash Wutthakat - -

Airport Rail Link Don Mueang - Suvarnabhumi - U-Tapao - -

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 180

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 181

Office market

Office market in Bangkok is concentrated in CBD Inner Bangkok and currently has been spreading to city fringe considered to be potential new CBD

Core Central Business District(Asoke Phloen Chit Sathon

Siam Silom area)

bull Inner Bangkok areabull Largest office districtbull Densely occupied by government

offices embassies financial firms and corporate headquarters

bull High rent costbull Limited supply

Potential new Central Business District

(Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 area)

bull Located the north east of the core CBD

bull Lower rent costbull More available supplybull Future hub of transport

Business districts in Bangkok

Due to the scarcity of land for development in CBD and the expansion of mass transit system to surrounding areas the area in city fringe such as Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 has been developed to be another business district

Source NRI analysis

Map of Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 182

Thousand Sqm

15

29

132

96

116107

135

146 143

118

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net new supply Net demand

Office market

The demand is expected to increase due to business expansion and governmentrsquos policy encouraging new business set-up and investment promotion

Bangkok office accumulated supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2016

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Bangkok annual net new supply and net demand in 2012-2016

Note these figures exclude multi-owner occupied premises and office buildings smaller than 5000 Sqm

Thousand Sqm

4463 4454 4478 4604 4700 4783

3801 3908 4049 4190 4333 4451

852 877 904 910 922 931

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Supply Demand Occupancy rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 183

Office market

The change of occupancy rate of non-CBD Grade A is mainly resulted from the completion of new buildings and the movement of tenants to the new ones The 9th Tower (57618 sqm) AIA Capital Centre (54000 sqm) Bhiraj Tower (32000 sqm) G Tower (66000 sqm)

The decline of amount of occupied space in CBD Grade B buildings might be a result of relocation of tenants from CBD Grade B buildings to new properties in non-CBD area due to rising rents and limited space

Asking rent space availability easy access by mass transit and good quality of office supply with supporting amenities are the factors supporting an increase of renting in non-CBD area

Even though there was more supply added for non-CBD Grade A offices the occupancy rate turned at high level in all areas

Occupancy rate by grade in 2014Q1-2016Q4

0

10

14Q

1

14Q

2

14Q

3

14Q

4

15Q

1

15Q

2

15Q

3

15Q

4

16Q

1

16Q

2

16Q

3

16Q

4

CBD Grade A CBD Grade B Overall Non-CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade B

928953

908

934

904

931

947

823812

927

884

917

80

85

90

95

100

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 184

Office market

Around 77 of the additional volume of supply for the next 3 years will be located in non-CBD area

Number of office building construction permits in CBD and non-CBD

Source Manager newspaper National Real Estate Information Center Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Planned future office supply in CBD and non-CBD 2017-2019

71

123 116 114

103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BuildingsZone Buildings Space

(sqm)

Expected completion

year

CBDGaysorn Office Tower 32000 2017

Samyan Mirttown 7000 2019

Non-CBD

G Tower (North Tower) 50000 2017

MS Siam Tower 48000 2018

Bhiraj Tower at BITEC 42531 2017

Singha Complex 37000 2018

T1 Office building 34000 2018

Shinnawat 4 31880 2017

Ladprao Hills 25087 2017

Aree Hill 23340 2018

Cosmo Office Park 12000 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 185

Office market

Rental rate is trending upwards and this trend is expected to continue in 2017 due to increasing demand and limited supply especially in CBD

736 753823 854

937 960

578 610 630 661723

818

572 593 626 646695

738

558 575 601 607 640 671

420 433 449 461 479 504

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade A Bangkok Average CBD Grade B Non-CBD Grade B

Bangkok office asking rent per square meter by grade in 2011-2016

price at the end of year

In 2016 the overall average asking rent is increasing 62 from 2015 to be THB 738 per sqm The highest rental rate growth is shown in non-CBD Grade A buildings increasing 131

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 186

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 187

Residential Market

Apart from the effect of economic slowdown more stringent mortgage loan criteria by banks significantly affected both buyers and developers especially small and medium-sized investment companies as well as newcomers of the real estate industry resulting in slow pace of sales and supply

Some Thai developers started the joint ventures with foreign companies to bring in innovation to improve construction process architecture and design and to finance projects For example Mitsui Fudosan and Ananda Development AP and Mitsubishi Estate and Sena Development and Hankyu Realty

In October 2015 the stimulus package which is the temporary reduction of transfer and mortgage fee was announced in order to boost the residential market after the market shrinking affected by the coup in May 2014

Residential market in Bangkok and vicinities have been expanding but with decreasing growth rate due to tightened lending criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Prachachat newspaper

Market value of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H1 (THB million)

Share( as of 2016H1)

CAGR 59

Condominium(4533)

CAGR 60

Housing(5467)

CAGR 57576524 699275 754221 842763 867646 813632 900096 901127

468422 545916

601852 566575 608603 596753 694000 747299

1916

890

393 475

-446

1303

341

-400000

0

400000

800000

1200000

1600000

2000000

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1

Housing Condominium Growth

THB millions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 188

Residential Market

A sign of low growth in new supply is showed in both markets since developers aim to postpone new projectslaunching until the inventory will be absorbed Oversupply could be an issue for this market especially condominium in the peripheral Bangkok since there is

remaining built-but-unsold inventory as well as supply of land for development is still high

The demand of condominium markets is supported by rising number of smaller size of family changing lifestyle and convenience in transportation and living

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The number of total supply and the take-up rate of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H2 (units)

91147 107962 114006 116133 123697 120747 125991 125099 126161

6728266874 72187 81422 78502 76963 78535 77848 77668

101312127328 142563 141741 148674 146923 160658 171796 179930

40740

4290449352 54054 57324 57364

5985659642 58957

57536175 6123 5879 6118 6107 6160 6164 6190

71327480 7428 7239 7217 7192 7286 7423 7532

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H20

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Housing units sold Housing unsold units Condominium units sold Condominium unsold units Housing take-up Condominiums take-up

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 189

Residential Market

Land price is the factor which has the most influence on the price of condominium and houses particularly condominium projects in the downtown area In 2016 overall land price in Bangkok increased approximately 4 Areas along the mass transit train lines saw an increase in price about 65-89 While midtown and

suburban showed the land price appreciation around 26-43 land prices in downtown area rose 64

Prices index of all types of properties have risen while landrsquos and condominiumrsquos price index ranked the top

Land price index and house price index by type of house for Bangkok and vicinities in 2008-2017

Note 1 Single detached house including land town house including land and condominium price indices have been constructed by using hedonic regression method (Rolling window and time dummy) (3-month moving average)

2 Land price index has been constructed by using Stratification method with monthly weight (3-month moving average)

Source Bank of Thailand Thansettakij newspaper

Reference point = 100 (Jan 2009)

89 100 102106 108 114

120 128 129 129

89

100 104106 111

124134 138 137

99118 119

131 130140

156 160171

90108

114123 124

138148

170172

40

70

100

130

160

190

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Detached house (including land) Townhouse (including land) Condominium Land

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 190

Residential Market

Criteria for good location could be the connected transportation network and the expansion of train lines in suburban areas

The majority of housing supply is condensed in suburban areas in Bangkok However they have been diffused to vicinities due to price and availability of land

Source National Real Estate Information Center Post Today newspaper

The dispersion of housing supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of housing supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

PathumThani

Bangkok

Nakorn Pathom

SamutPrakan

Samut Sakhon

LegendHousingHousing started being sold since July 2016

Nonthaburi

N = 203255

336

198

198

160

6840

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan Samut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 191

Residential Market

Supply of available land for development is still high in midtown and suburban area in Bangkok where will be the areas of the expansion of mass transit lines and facility development

In Bangkok 70 of supply is in midtown and suburban area but projects with the highest value are in the downtown area

PathumThani

Nonthaburi

Nakorn Pathom

Samut SakhonSamut Prakan

Bangkok

LegendCondominiumsCondominiums started being sold since July 2016

The dispersion of condominiums supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of condominiums supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

Source National Real Estate Information Center

N = 238887

683

153

61

8206 15

Bangkok NonthaburiPathum Thani Samut PrakanSamut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 192

Residential Market

Bangkok has the highest sold rate in housing and condominium market compared to other vicinities because of convenience of transportation and facilities

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for housing in 2016H2 The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for condominium in 2016H2

493

544

548

584

596

719

507

456

452

416

404

281

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nakorn Pathom

Samut Sakhon

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

519

567

626

680

718

797

481

433

374

320

282

203

0 20 40 60 80 100

Samut Sakhon

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Nakorn Pathom

Nonthaburi

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 193

Residential Market

Townhouse and THB 1-3 million house were the best selling products in term of units However over THB 5 million house showed increasing take-up rate

Townhouse and detached house showed a decreasing trend on demand but they still occupied around 85 of total sold units Prime townhouse in downtown or midtown became more demand since its price per square meter is lower than condominium in midtown

The number of house transfer was much less than sales particularly in houses which are less than THB 2 million because of tightened lending restrictions by banks The mortgage rejection rates were as high as 50 since borrowers especially low-to-middle-income ones have

been faced with the situation of higher level of personal debt than the required criteria by banks

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkok Post newspaper

The take-up rate of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by types in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

4725 4597 4577

3888 3827 3653

955 1123 1267

402 421 458

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Townhouse Detached house Duplexed

Shophouse Others

117 091 104

4040 3925 3921

3347 3470 3477

2495 2514 2498

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 194

Residential Market

The highest demand was shown in 1 bedroom condominium and condominium with pricing THB 1-3 million while take-up rate of over THB 5 million units is rising

For midtown and suburban areas there is an increase in supply due to land availability with reasonable price and mass transportation expansion

For downtown area there is a limited supply with the upward trend of price due to limited supply of land for development

The number of transfer units may not as high as the number of sold units because of inability to secure loan Developers had shifted their focus to the upper-end level market since this market had high take-up rate and was

less affected by strict mortgage loan criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Sold units of condominium by types in 2015H2-2016H2 Sold units of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2 The take-up rate of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

1641 1675 1924

7058 7007 6826

1197 1218 1163104 100 087

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Studio 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms ge 3 bedrooms

954 851 893

5981 5942 6094

1655 1654 1530

1411 1553 1483

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 195

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

The areas for prime condominiums are well-developed as a center of business education convenient public transport and shopping malls

Prime Sukhumvit area has 4 prime projects with 597 new units launched in 2016 which share the largest portion in supply

Central Lumpini area showed the highest growth in average selling price at 99 following by Prime Sukhumvit with 81 increase Riverside-Rama III and Sathorn-Silom area which the price rose 31 and 28 respectively

Prime Sukhumvit remains the main location of prime condominiums

2016 prime projects Location Average asking

price (THBSqm) Units

98 Wireless Central Lumpini (Wireless) 550000 77

28 Chidlom Central Lumpini (Chidlom) 350000 436

Khun by Yoo Prime Sukhumvit (Thonglor 12) 300000 148

Vittorio Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 39) 280000 88

KRAAM Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 26) 275000 126

Laviq Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 57) 240000 235

New supply of prime condominium projects in Bangkok in 2016

Prime condominium is refer to condominium with pricing more than 200000 THBSqm

Location map of areas for prime condominiums in Bangkok

Central Lumpini area Prime Sukhumvit area

Riverside-Rama III area

Sathorn-Silom area

Source Property Insight news Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 196

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

Developer had shifted their focus to prime condominium due to limited supply and had demand from both domestic and foreign

Source Property Today news Bangkokbiz News newspaper Nation newspaper

Supplybull Luxury condominium segment accounted for less than 5 of the total Bangkok condominium supply bull In 2016 the market showed strong growth in supply by 246 increasing especially within the Prime Sukhumvit area bull Developers focused more on prime condominiums since there was purchasing power and land price in downtown area

was too high to develop middle level projects

Demand

bull There was demand with 645 take-up rate with decreasing growth rate bull Buyers in this segment did not rely on home loans and had purchasing power bull There were both domestic and foreign demand Thai buyers accounted for about 85 The rest was the foreign buyers

mostly people from Hong Kong Singapore and Taiwan who have business in Thailandbull Around 48 bought a unit for self-occupancy 36 bought to generate long-term rental income and 16 were the

short-term speculatorsbull Buyers are likely to be more selective

Price bull Price has been increased 47 in average from 2015 The highest record of asking price is THB 720000 sqm by 98 Wireless It is expected that price levels will remain high and may rise due to the land price appreciation

Challenge bull Limited of supply of land for development and high land-acquisition costbull Anticipate customerrsquos needs and deliver superior customer value

Key success factors

bull Accessibility factors convenient transportation both by car and public transportbull Living factors close to shopping malls recreation education health care and business areabull Mood amp livable factors location attributes unique ambience architecture and premium amenities are also represent

the excusive lifestyle and preferences of the target group Brand affiliation was applied as value creation for projectsbull Cost factors competitive price with high quality

Opportunity bull Condominium ownership law for foreigners 49 of total units can be occupied by foreign person

Prime condominium

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 197

Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies

There is no difference between Thai and joint venture projects in terms of price and building except one project differentiating by applying Japanese unique theme

List of Japanese companies conducting joint venture with Thai companies

Price range (THBSqm)

lt 70000 70000 -200000

gt 200000

Floo

r lev

els

gt 30

flo

ors

10 -

29flo

ors

lt 10

flo

ors

Include only new launched condominium projects in 2016-2017

Japan-Thailand joint venture projects positioning

Japanese companies Thai companies of joint venture projects

Mitsui Fudosan (Asia) Pte Ltd

Ananda Development PLC 12

Mitsubishi Estate Co Ltd AP (Thailand) PLC 8

Nomura Real Estate Development Co Ltd Origin Property PLC 3

Hankyu Realty Co Ltd Sena Development PLC 2

Shinwa Real Estate Co Ltd Woraluk Property PLC 1

Tokyu Corporation Sansiri PLC 1

Color denotes the location

1500 units 500 units

Size of circle denotes the number of units

Source NRI analysis

Suburban area with mass rapid transit accessMidtown area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 198

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 199

Hotel market trend

Number of international tourists has been increasing every year except 2014 which had politic issue and coup drsquoetat

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Malaysia Japan Korea Russia Othercoup detat

CAGR 95

Number of international tourists visiting Thailand

In 2015 Chinese tourist is around 266 which increased around 4 times in 10 years following by Malaysian 115 and Japanese 46

Thousand persons

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 200

Hotel market trend

From 2012 trend of total length of stay has been decreasing due to increasing of tourists from East Asia

95 90 91 96 100 99 98 95

59 57 59 64 68 68 67 70

158142 145

156165 165 164 169

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total EastAsia Europe

Average length of stay of international tourists

In average tourists from East Asia stay around 7 days while European tourists stay around 17 days

Days

Average length of stay of East Asia tourists in 2015

Country of resident Average length of stay (days)

China 81

Japan 80

Korea 77

Taiwan 76

Hong Kong 65

ASEAN 56

Others 72

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 201

Hotel market trend

Japanese tourist spend more on accommodation but Chinese tourist spend money more on others such as souvenir

21013

5109

9985

15273

27229

5630

10924

15884

17933

5013

10621

18330

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Others

Transportation

FoodBeverage

Accomodation

Japan China Total

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports National Statistical Office

Average expenditure per day of Total Chinese and Japanese tourists by purpose in 2015 Average expenditure of international tourists per person per day in 2008-2015

THB

THB

4520543525 44246 44708

48262

50972

54975

59666

4521143970 44171 44724

4725049207

48876

51897

4142340112 40787

41871

43928

4616548089

51379

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Japan Total

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 202

Hotel market trend

Number of hotel room is increasing and occupancy rate also increasing with CAGR (2009-2015) around 99 In Bangkok the new supply mainly in Sukhumvit Rd

Source National Statistical Office

The number of hotel rooms and occupancy rate nationwide in 2009-2015

366455

531 528 540 551

651

368395

438487

563 581

651

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Room Occupancy Rate

Thousand units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 203

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 204

1719 17192033

2567

3271314

533

705

315

1630 1630 1813 2015

2572

183202

557

208

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Existing supply New supply Existing demand New demand

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand Sqm

94838918

7852 7862 7750

Occupancy rate

Logistics Property Market

Market value has increased to be about THB 68 billion in 2015 with CAGR (2011-2015) 202 in supply and 143 in demand

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Warehouse supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 205

Logistics Property Market

The movement at ports is rising indicating an increase of demand for logistics property service

Source Ministry of Commerce Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Number of containers passing through Bangkok and Laem Chabang port in 2012-2016

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Bangkok Port - Inbound Laem Chabang Port - Inbound

Bangkok Port - Outbound Laem Chabang Port - Outbound

Thousand TEU

Remark TEU ndash Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit Container

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CAGR 45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 206

Logistics Property Market

The positive factor for the future demand of warehouse service is growing logistic industry supported by E-commerce market and governmentrsquos projects

Source Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Segment( as of 2021f)

Government(1833)

CAGR 184Retail

(2333)CAGR 187

Businesses(6001)

CAGR 201

THB trillions

12 14 16 19 2227

3605

0506

0709

1

14

0405

0506

07

09

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

E-commerce market value in 2015-2021f List of infrastructure development projects in 2015-2022

Infrastructure projects Year

Airport Development of U Tapao airport to be aviation hub

2017-2021

Port Development of 6 ports in the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea

2015-2022

Railway Railway Standard Gauge Thailand-ASEAN-China

2015-2022

Dual-track railway (Laem Chabang port Map Ta Phut port)

2017-2021

High-speed train connecting 3 airports (Suvannabhumi Don Muaeng U Tapao)

2017-2021

Road 12 Motorway connecting between regions 2015-2022

Motorway (Bangkok-ChonburiPattaya-Map Ta Phut)

2017-2021

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 207

Logistics Property Market

Among 3 keys logistics areas Bangkok-Samutprakan has the highest supply since it is the area of airports and industrial estates and it also locates near Bangkok

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Supply share by key logistics locations

Pathumthani-Ayutthaya

Bangkok-Samutprakan

Eastern Seaboard

453

398

144

04

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard

Pathumthani-Ayuttaya Others

Map of Thailand key logistics locations

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 208

Logistics Property Market

Price competition occurred in Eastern Seaboard area since there was a rise in supply resulting from forecasted demand from Eastern Economic Corridor project

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Monthly warehouse rental rates by key logistics locations in 2011-2015

156157

161 161 161

152 152153

150 149147 148

150151 151

155 155

158157 157

140

145

150

155

160

165

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard Pathumthani-Ayutthaya Market rate

THBSqm

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 209

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 210

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 211

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population Growth

India is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption

Source Population Reference Bureau 2017 Datasheet USA

Indiarsquos Position in Population Growth Indiarsquos Population Structure by Age

China18

India18

USA4

Indonesia4

Brazil3

Rest53

2017 (August)

India17

China14

Nigeria4

USA4Indonesia

4

Rest57

2050F

World Population (mid-2017) 7536 mn World Population (2050F) 9683 mn

-100-050

mdash050100150200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

lation

grow

th ra

te (

)

Time (years)

India China Russia Brazil Korea Japan USA UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Percentage of population

Age (

in ye

ars)

YearMedian age (years) Dependability ratio ()Working age population ()

Most favorable period for development

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 212

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid Urbanization

India is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing

Urbanization Trends Major Urban Centers

29 33 38 43 4861

74 81

7681

8588

9092

88 81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Percentage of total population

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(00rsquo

s m

illio

n)

TimeUrban Rural Urban population as of total

Past Trend Projected Future Trend

Source 1 World Urbanization Prospects The 2014 Revision UN Population Division

2

1

6

3

7

5

4

7 Major Urban Centres (Tier 1 cities)

Non-Major Urban Centres (Tier 2 cities)

Source NRI analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 213

904 908 911 914 91996

9289

8681

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Constructionothers

Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of Economy

Although the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years

Contribution of Construction Sector to Countryrsquos GVA (Gross Value Add) at factor cost (at current prices)

As demographic pressure grows need to sustain economic growth will drive investments in the construction sector

Base year 2011-12Values INR trillion

81192

10361148

1246

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 214

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure

GDP per capita at current prices

Source IMF World Economic Outlook April 2017

The improving economic condition of the society will increase the demand for better quality infrastructure especially housing

Average Household Savings per annum

Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E2015E2016E 2019

US$

Time (years)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015IN

R (In

Tho

usan

ds)

Urban Rural Overall

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 215

Note Middle class defined as those living in households with daily per capita income between US$10-100 at 2005 US$ PPP terms

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world

Structure of Population in March 2015 by Income Top 10 Countries in Middle Class Consumption

HHI Household Income per annumHHI brackets Rich (above Rs 073mn) High middle income (Rs 073-020mn) Middle income (Rs 02-01mn) Lower Income and Poor (below Rs 01mn)Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid Data Retrieved 09th Sep 2016 Source Brookings Institution OECD Working Paper no-285 2010

RANK 2009 2020 2030

1 US 44 CHINA 45 INDIA 128

2 JAPAN 18 US 43 CHINA 100

3 GERMANY 12 INDIA 37 US 40

4 FRANCE 09 JAPAN 22 INDONESIA 25

5 UK 09 GERMANY 14 JAPAN 23

6 RUSSIA 09 RUSSIA 12 RUSSIA 14

7 CHINA 07 FRANCE 11 GERMANY 13

8 ITALY 07 INDONESIA 10 MEXICO 12

9 MEXICO 07 MEXICO 10 BRAZIL 12

10 BRAZIL 06 UK 10 FRANCE 11

WORLD 21 WORLD 35 WORLD 55

1304

58

29

87

RICHAverage HHI Rs114mn+14 over 2015

HIGH MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI Rs 033mnNo Change

MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI 015 mn+7 over 2015

LOWER INCOME ampPOORAverage HHI 075mn+7 over 2015

Indiarsquos middle class population would greatly drive demand in the construction sector

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 216

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 217

Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and Growth

The construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure

Sector contribution to Gross Value Added 2015-16 Real-estate market size and growth-rate

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017) Source IBEF India Julrsquo17

Total GVA value at current prices (Base year 2011-12) INR 1246 trillion

Note Real-estate market includes ownership of residential commercial and industrial dwellings and related business services

Agriculture forestry and

fishing17

Mining and quarrying

2

Manufacturing17

Electricity gas water supply amp

other utility services

3

Construction8

Trade repair hotels and restaurants

11

Transport storage

communication amp services hellip

Financial services

6

Real estate ownership of

dwelling amp professional

services15

Public administration and defence

6

Other services8

50 53 56 67 121 94 126 180

853

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2020E 2028E

US$

(bill

ion)

Time (years)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 218

Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players Performance

The real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes

Source Capital IQ amp NRI Analysis

List of Prominent Real Estate Developers (Listed Players only)

Developer Name Revenue USD mn (FY17)

FocusedMarket

Asset ClassResidential Retail Office Hospitality Industrial

DLF Ltd 1269 North India

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd

737 Bengaluru

Godrej Properties Ltd 244 West India

Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd

358 Metro Cities

Unitech Ltd 267 North India

Sobha Ltd 344 South India

The Phoneix Mills Ltd 282 West amp South

Omaxe Limited 251 North India

Brigade Enterprises Ltd 312 South India

Oberoi Realty Ltd 172 West India

HDIL 112 Mumbai

Mahindra Lifespace Developers

118 West amp South

Ashiana Housing Ltd 56 North India

Nesco Ltd 55 Mumbai

Nirlon Ltd 37 Mumbai

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 219

Financing Developments ndash Project Financing Options

Private lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed

Financing options by developers preference Recently Introduced Financing Options

PE funds

NBFC Lending

Private Lending

Bank Lending

FCCB

QIP

AIF

IPO

bull NBFC Non-banking Financial Companybull PE Private Equitybull IPO Initial Public Offeringbull ECB External Commercial Borrowing

bull QIP Qualified Institutional Placementbull FCCB Foreign currency bondsbull REMF Real Estate Mutual Fundbull AIF Alternative Investment Fundbull REIT Real Estate Investment Trustbull InvIT Infrastructure Investment Trust

Preference (high to low)

REMF

REIT

ECB

InvIT

Option Brief Description Merit

AIF bull Diversified portfolio of funds that invest in real estate infra and other priority sector projects

bull Long-term money can be invested in unlisted companies

bull Easy access of money from foreign investors

REIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of real estate assets on behalf of investors

bull Will create exit opportunities for developers and financial investors

bull Infuse transparency and liquidity in the market

InvIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of income generating infrastructure projects

bull Will create liquidity for private infrastructure players

bull Will lower debt exposure and unlocktied up capital of developers

Source NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 220

Financing Developments Trends in REITs

REITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

Reg

ulat

ory

Inve

stor

s

Regulation Introducedbull lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts

Regulations 2014rsquo introduced

Taxation Relaxedbull Dividend distribution tax on REITs

abolished

Operating Conditions Relaxedbull Limit on maximum number of sponsors

raised to fivebull Limit on investment in under-construction

projects raised to 20bull Foreign fund managers allowed to relocate

to India as fund manager

Investments by Banks Allowedbull Indian Central Bank (RBI) allowed

Indian banks to invest in REITs within their umbrella limit of 20 of their Net-Owned Funds

bull This umbrella limit of 20 includes bankrsquos investments in equity-linked mutual funds venture capital funds and stocks

Investments by Mutual Fundsbull Mutual funds allowed to invest up to

5 of their NAV in a single REIT with maximum REIT exposure restricted at 10 of NAV

bull GIC CPPIB Temasek ADIA in talks with IndoSpace for launching ~USD2 bn logistics REIT

bull Blackstone to launch ~USD06 bn office REIT with Embassy Group

bull DLF plans to launch office REIT by mid-2018

bull Blackstone to launch second office REIT with Panchshil Realty

bull Blackstone may consider listing its retail assets under REIT in future

bull Post approval by RBI mutual fund houses are altering their schemes to allow investments in to REITs and InvITs- DSP Blackrock MF altered two

schemes- Birla Sun Life MF altered 12

schemes- ICICI Prudential MF altered three

schemes

bull RMZ Corp (backed by Qatar Investment Authority) is looking to launch REIT by end-2017

bull K Raheja Corp is consolidating its office assets and may be considering launching an office REIT

bull Even though REIT Regulations were introduced in 2014 no real estate developer or investor had shown interest in the initial two years

bull Regulatory points such as dividend distribution tax and certain operating conditions made India REIT listings unattractive for investors

Investments by Insurance Cosbull Insurance companies allowed to

invest up to 3 of their funds in REITs with maximum holding in a single REIT restricted to 5

Source Reserve Bank of India Press Articles NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 221

Financing Developments Trends in Domestic Investments

Domestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Based on data till June 2017

563

23852078

1011

PE investments indicate deals by India-dedicated funds

6753

67

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 15x of 1Q16

2014 2015 2016 2017

Numb

er an

d Valu

e of D

eals

Key D

eals

Ann

ounc

emen

ts

bull Tata Capital ndash Shriram Properties USD80 mn

bull Peninsula Brookfield (Domestic fund) ndash Ansal API USD50 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Nirmal Lifestyle USD50mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndash Supertech USD45 mn

bull Fund raising- Kotak Realty USD400 mn- HDFC USD 250 mn

bull Indostar Capital ndash Total Environment Building Systems USD137 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Omkar Realtors and Developers USD200 mn

bull Piramal Enterprises ndashOzone Group USD96 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Lodha Group USD86 mn

bull Fund raising- HDFC Property USD550 mn- Arthveda USD250 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Lodha Group USD347 mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndashM3M India USD187 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Adarsh Developers USD110 mn

bull Altico Capital ndash Vatika Group USD103 mn

bull Fund raising- Rising StraitsUSD1000 mn- HDFC Venture USD400 mn- ASK Group USD299 mn

bull HDFC Venture Edelweiss Capital Altico Capital ndash Adarsh Developers USD144 mn for land acquisition and starting construction on five residential projects

bull Piramal Fund ndash ASF Group USD85 mn for IT SEZbull Piramal Fund ndash Wadhwa Group USD65 mn for office assetsbull Altico Capital ndash Sheth Group USD56 mn for residential project developmentbull Edelweiss Capital ndash Parinee Realty USD51 mn for under-construction luxury

residential projectbull Fund raising

- SMC Capital and REPL (EPC Developer) USD75 mn ndash SMC IM Capital- Arthveda USD250 mn ndash Affordable Low and Middle Income Fund- Indiabulls Housing Finance USD224 mn ndashDual Advantage Commercial Assets Fund- Reliance Capital USD150 mn ndash Reliance Rental Yield Fund

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 222

Financing Developments Trends in Foreign Investments

Foreign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics

2014 2015 2016 2017

Num

ber a

nd V

alue o

f Dea

lsKe

y Dea

ls A

nnou

ncem

ents

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashUnitech USD349 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash Nirlon USD225 mn

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Infinity Techno Park USD108 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndashParanjape Schemes Construction USD100 mn

bull Fund raising

- CPPIB (Canada)USD500 mn

- Hines (US) USD250 mn

bull Blackstone (US) ndash Alpha G Corp USD302 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF (Residential) USD300 mn

bull Warburg Pincus (US) ndashPiramal Realty USD284 mn

bull Goldman Sachs (US) ndash Nitesh Estates USD300 mn

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashHiranandani USD1000 mn

bull APG Asset Management (Netherlands) ndash Godrej Properties USD275 mn

bull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Phoenix Mills USD250 mn

bull Xander APG Asset Management ndash Virtuous Retail South Asia USD109 mn

bull Fund raising

- Xander USD400 mn

- Macquarie USD500 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF USD1800 mn for 40 stake in rental business across office and retail assets Talks began with 25 prospective buyer and narrowed down to Blackstone and GIC

bull Blackstone (US) ndash K Raheja Corp USD250 mn for 20 mn square feet office spacebull CDPQ (Canada) ndash Piramal Enterprises USD250 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Arshiya USD83 mn for six warehousesbull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Indospace Formed a USD1200 mn JV to acquire and develop

logistics facilities in India JV shall acquire 13 industrial and logistics projects totalling 14 mn square feet from current funds

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Firstspace Realty Formed a JV to invest USD500-600 mn to develop 15 mn square feet logistics and industrial facilities

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Shriram Group US$350 mn for SEZ looking for offices in Tier 1 cities

bull KKR (US) ndash Signature Global USD32 mn to develop affordable housing

Based on data till June 2017

965

30813164

1396

3422 26

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 11x of 1Q16

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 223

Financing Developments Debt position of leading developers

Debt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default

Source SampP Capital IQ NRI Analysis

799

284

333

408

472

493

518

614

1235

3548

Developer Debt Position

Developer Name Total Debt Dec16 (USD mn)

Increase FY16 to Dec16

Increase FY15 to FY16

Interest Coverage Ratio

-13

35

-11

24

-12

0

-52

-9

-2

-19

4

-12

38

-12

8

0

1

-13

3

21

108

091

267

251

149

017

084

163

146

292

Note Total 10 players mentioned above account for 78 of the total debt of listed real estate players in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 224

Financing Developments Debt ndash Trends in NPAs of Banking System

Due to project loan default by developers non-performing assets of banks are increasing Government has increased pace to resolve NPA issue Global PE investors seem keen to capitalize on this opportunistic

2012 - 2014 2015 2016 2017

Key

Eve

nts

NPA

Rat

io

bull Aug-Nov 2015 RBI conducted Asset Quality Review -AQR of bank books to ensure NPAs are correctly recognized

bull Large portion of stressed loans accumulated due to default by large Indian companies

bull Banks delayed the NPA bad loan recognition to show good performance

GNPA Ratio Forecast

Forecast as per RBIrsquos lsquoFinancial Stability Reportrsquo December 2016

NPAs in Indian banking system (across sectors) ndash Ratio of Gross Non-Performing Assets to Total Advances

Source Reserve Bank of India ndash lsquoFinancial Stability Report December 2016rsquo Bloomberg Reports Mar 2017 Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both NPA ratio

bull Global PE heavyweights formed JVs to focus on investments in Indian stressed assets

- Brookfield Apollo Global Bain Capital CPPIB CDPQ and JC Flower amp Co

bull Jan-17 RBI announced that is expects NPAs to increase furtherbull May-17 Banking Regulation Act 1949 amended to give RBI more powers

to resolve NPA issue RBI now has the power to give directions to banks in India to initiate insolvency process against debt defaulters

bull Jun-17 RBI identified 12 key defaulters (together account for 25 of the total NPAs) for resolution by initiating insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016)- The lenders to these defaulters shall finalise the resolution plan within six

months failing which insolvency proceedings shall be initiated

30 35 40 4676 91 98 101

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNPA to Total Advances

Sep-16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 225Source Bloomberg Reports Press Articles NRI Analysis

Global PE Firms in Indian Stressed Asset Market

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Global PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets

Glob

al PE

Firm

s Indian Partner

Jul 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Aug 16

Mar 16

Mar 16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 226Source VC Circle Press Articles

Recent Announcements (Illustrative List)

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Major global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets

Investor Target Seller Partner

Estimated DealValue (US$ mn)

Asset-Type

Office Residential Retail Others

Ascendas Arshiya Ltd 83 Six warehouses near Mumbai (Western India)

CPPIB IndoSpace 1200 JV to acquire 13 logistics assets (14 mn sqft)

GIC DLF - DCCDL 1800 GIC Singapore announced intention to purchase 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business DCCDL (DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd) (Across India)

KKR Signature Global

31 Affordable housing projects in Gurgaon(Northern India)

Xander Group AdarshDevelopers

20 For projects in Bengaluru area (Southern India)

- - Looking for assets in tier1 cities (Across India)

ShriramGroup

190 SEZ in Chennai (Southern India)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 227

DLF Promoters

DLF Ltd

DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd (DCCDL)

25

Assets and Projects

Assets and Projects

Public

CCPS sale to GIC

Office Retail Land Under-construction Other Assets

75

Proposed Transaction ndash Sale of CCPS held by Promoters of DLF

40 60

Case Study DLF - GIC

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Recently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion

Snapshot

Deal Summarybull Sale of promoter familyrsquos 40 stake in

DCCDLbull Deal value estimated to be US$18 billionbull Funds raised to be used for debt reductionbull Expected to be closed by September 2017

DCCDL Businessbull Assets Offices Retail Landbull Operational portfolio 268 mn sqftbull Development pipeline 67 mn sqft

Source Press Articles NRI Analysis

Cumulative Convertible Preference Shares

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 228

Regulatory Developments

Recent policy initiatives such as RE regulation act GST tax reform and strong steps for resolving bank NPAs are likely to make Indian market attractive for investors

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

RE

Reg

ulat

ion

Anti-

Cor

rupt

ion

Ban

king

Sy

stem

Econ

omic

bull SEBI introduced lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts Regulations 2014rsquo expected to bring greater accountability and reduce frauds and project delays

bull Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Bill 2015 introduced to prohibit illegal ownership transactions

bull Passed RERA -Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

bull RERA becomes effective however some states are yet to comply

bull Some states have diluted the provisions of the central act raising concerns

bull Interest Subsidy Scheme for housing loans for low and middle income groups to promote affordable housing in India

bull Real estate sector impacted by demonetization due to high volume of cash transactions

bull Goods and Service Tax (GST) to become effective from 1 July potentially simplifying the Indian indirect tax structure

bull Benami Act 2016 becomes effective

Source CBRE ndash lsquoIndia Marketflashrsquo Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Indian central bank (RBI) conducted asset quality review (AQR) of banks to ensure NPAs are recognized and provisioned

bull Government relaxed rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in real estate

bull Removed restrictive conditions of minimum area and capitalization amount

bull Demonetization high value currency notes to remove lsquoblack moneyrsquo

bull Government amended Indian banking regulation law to give RBI more powers to resolve NPA issue

bull RBI identified 12 large debt defaulters and instructed banks to push these accounts for insolvency

bull Income Tax department identified 400 transactions for conducting investigations under Benami Act

bull Real estate assets estimated to be worth ~USD80 mn was linked in the transactions

bull Multiple states notified the draft rules and passed the regulations to meet the deadline for compliance ndash 1 May 2017

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both GNPA and NNPA ratios

bull Draft law for indirect tax reform - Goods and Service Tax (GST) released in Public domain in June 2016

bull Constitutional amendment bill passed to facilitate implementation of GST

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 229

Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy Conditions

FDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years howeverrecent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector

Source Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Government of India June 2017

Summary of FDI policy in real estate sector FDI in Real-estate sector (USD bn)

Topic Brief Description

Investment Limit

bull 100 equity allowedbull Automatic authorization route no prior

government approval required

Key Restrictions

bull Construction of farm houses trading in transferable development rights (TDRs) and dealing in land or immovable property

bull Lock-in period of 3 years

Relaxations bull No lock-in period in case of hotels amp resorts hospitals SEZs educational institutions and old age homes

bull Transfer from one non-resident to another non-resident will not be subject to 3 year lock-in period

bull FDI permitted in completed projects for operations and management of townships malls shopping complexes and business centers

Key Implications

bull Will help revive projects that could not receive capital earlier

bull Foreign investors will be able to speed up its investment process

bull Encouraging environment for foreign developers

010

133

011

123

314

166

294

280

218

047

004

072

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2015-16

2014-15

2013-14Multiple corruption cases and political instability led to market downturn

2016-17

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 230

Regulatory Developments ndash Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

Real Estate bill 2016 is a major regulation recently passed by Indian Govt This bill is expected to bring greater accountability and reduce fraud and project delays in this sector

bull Rising population and income has led to an excessive demand for housing in India for the last two decades

bull As a result several firms jumped into the housing development business to capture a share of this booming market

bull In a race to capture demand developers started launching several projects simultaneously by investing consumersrsquo money into buying new land sites

bull Gradually developersrsquo intensity started affecting their cash flows and not just numbers but project sizes became larger

bull This resulted in poor quality construction severe delay in projects completion etc leading to consumersrsquo increasing dissatisfaction legal disputes etc

bull Hence the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Bill 2016 was introduced to re-instate transparency and discipline in the real estate sector and passed in March 2016

Source News Articles

Background Key Provisions of Bill

Boom in residential market

driving new entrants

Race to capture this demand

impacted quality

Lead to consumer dissatisfaction

Scopebull Both commercial and residential assetsbull Developers brokers as well as agentsbull Under-construction projects also covered

Institutional Framework

bull All states to notify guidelines and set up regulatory boards

Fund Utilizationbull 70 of the money collected from the buyers to me maintained i

n an escrow account and to be mandatorily used for the said project

Registrationbull All covered projects need to be registered by the developer withi

n three months of setupbull Online registration facility available

Penaltiesbull In case of violations

ndash Project registrations can be cancelledndash Developerrsquos promoter(s) can be imprisoned

Interest Payments

bull In case of delay in providing possession developer shall pay same interest rate to buyer as the buyer would pay to developer in case of delay in payment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 231

Regulatory Developments ndash Demonetization

Demonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017

Performance of Real-Estate Index

1 Mar 2017

2 Jan

2017

1 Sep 2016

1 Feb 2017

3 Apr

2017

1 Jul 2016

1 Jun

2016

2 May 2016

9314

2 May 2017

256

1 Nov 2016

3 Oct

2016

1 Dec 2016

198

8497

1 Aug 2016

1 Apr

2016

161

7713

Nifty RealtyNifty 50

True impact of demonetization may become clear by the end of 2017 with disclosure of performance by developers

The Nifty Realty (real estate index) has been moving in line with the broader Nifty 50 index

Indices Trading at all time high

Demonetization 8 Nov 2016 caused an immediate but short-term correction

Source wwwinvestingcom NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 232

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 233

Office space demand in 2017 is expected to remain similar to 2016 however developers are making new launches in anticipation of demand growth post 2017

Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndAb

sorp

tion

Vaca

ncy

and

Ren

tal R

ate

106

195186153

190176 205204226183199180

2H20161H2015 1H20161H2014 2H2014 2H2015

AbsorptionNew Supply(in million sq ft)

Over the past 3 years developerrsquos cautious approach and improved economic sentiments have kept demand for office space more than the new supplyhellip

hellip this demand surplus has led to positive movement in vacancy rates and rental rates across key office space markets in India

New Supplybull Estimated to be ~30 more than

in 2016 with Bengaluru and Hyderabad being the biggest contributors

Absorptionbull Estimated to witness modest

~2 increase with Bengaluru and Delhi-NCR being the key markets

Vacancy Ratesbull Expected to improve across key

cities with the exception of Delhi-NCR and Kolkata

Rental Ratesbull Expected to improve across all

key cities with Hyderabad Delhi-NCR and Kolkata outperforming rental growth of 2016

183 174 166 156 150 135

88 92 98103 111 119

177 189 185 167 186 197

73 75 78 81 86 94

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Vacancy Rate Delhi - NCR Rental Mumbai Rental Bengaluru Rental

(Rental rate in USD per square metre per month)

Source Colliers ndash lsquoIndia Office Market Overviewrsquo Jan 2017 Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai and Hyderabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Supertech Plans to invest ~USD115 mn to develop 25 mn square feet of retail and commercial space in Delhi-NCR region

bull Lodha Group Set-up a business vertical to focus on development of commercial assets (office retail and logistics) with a target of USD1 billion AUM by 2021

bull ldquoDemand for office space is expected to remain constant in 2017 hellip The expected take up from ITITeS companies may see reduced proportionhelliprdquo - Anshul Jain Country Head Cushman amp Wakefield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 234

Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal Size

The ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad

9

21

57 60

39

51

173

912

16

21

32 34

84

22

2342 42

26 24 23

5

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

ITITES BFSI Manufacturing Other Services

16000 19000

54000

39000

20000

30000

25300

29000

50000 51000

24500

20000

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

H1 2016 H1 2017

Source India real estate residential and office January - June 2017 Knight Frank

Sector-wise Transactions Split (H1 2017) Deal Size Analysis (Sq ft)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 235

Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costs

New Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list

Prime office space occupancy costs in US$ per sq ft per annum

Source June 2017 Global Prime Office Occupancy Costs CBRE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q12017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 236

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 237

Since 1Q 2017 residential segment has started displaying signs of recovery encouraging developers such as Lodha and Supertech to commit large investments

Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

A 2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndSa

les

Cap

ital V

alue

Source Liases Foras Real Estate Rating amp Research Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

71100

123112149160

107131138123136135

1H20161H2015 2H2015 2H20161H2014 2H2014

SalesNew Launches(in lsquo000 units)

To compensate for the low residential demand developers have reduced new launcheshellip

hellip this has helped reduce the unsold inventory level and supported capital value growth in key markets except Delhi-NCR

1Q 2017 - Sales

bull Most key city markets have saw declining sales on annual and half-yearly basis

bull However on a QoQ all cities saw sales improvement except Bengaluru where sales declined further by ~8 on QoQ basis

1Q 2017 ndash Price

bull Capital values have continue improve by 3-5 in most key markets

bull However cities like Delhi-NCR Kolkata and Pune have witnessed marginal price correction of around 1-3

709 716 731 747 695 693

1185 1252 1282 1284 1298 1324

717 735 746 767 771 791

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Delhi - NCR Price Mumbai Price Bengaluru Price

(Price in USD per square metre)

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata and Ahmedabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Lodha Group Plans to invest ~USD650 mn during 2017-18 to enhance deliveries of residential projects and launch 8-9 new projects

bull Supertech Shall invest ~USD380 mn to complete 15000 housing units in 2017-18 Also it plans to invest ~USD525-600 mn for launching affordable housing projects of 40000 units

bull Shapoorji Pallonji Plans to launch around 12 residential projects during Aprrsquo17 to Decrsquo18 Currently this is the biggest development plan in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 238

Residential Space ndash Supply Trends

Mumbai amp Bengaluru dominate the new residential apartment supply In 1Q17 most of the new launches have been in the economy segment (INR 2000-3000 per sqft) range across India

16 127

22

13 24

6

7

10

23

24

28

12

12

145

8

487

38 11

7

H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017

Perc

enta

ge s

har

e o

f new

lau

nches

Time (Yearly)

Delhi-NCR Mumbai Chennai Bengaluru

Kolkata Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune

Source Knight Frank

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

Price Category Wise Launches (INR Per square ft)

Less than 2000 2000 - 3000 3000 - 40004000 - 5000 5000 - 7500 7500 - 1000010000 - 15000 More than 15000

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

~106900 ~74000 ~67500

New Residential Apartment Supply Trends Composition of New Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 239

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 240

Retail Space ndash Overall Outlook

The retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes

201 204 238

278 321

368 425

518 490

600 672

1300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Time (Years)

Source Indian Brand Equity Foundation July 2017

92 8776

8 1324

2015 2019E 2020E

Unorganized Organized

bull Currently India has over 15 million Mom and Pop stores (unorganized retail)

bull From FY09 - FY13 organised retail in India has witnessed a CAGR of 19-20

Retail Market Size (US$ Billion) Type of Retail Market in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 241

Retail space demand has remained stagnant across major markets as a result of domestic consumption slump caused by demonetization but is expected to recover in this year

Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

New Supplybull 2017 is likely to see the highest mall space

becoming operational second to 2011 bull High levels of activity are expected 2017

onwards after a prolonged slowdown from 2014 that lasted through 2016

Absorptionbull The domestic consumption story was

impacted by demonetization in the last two months of 2016

bull Business is expected to normalize from 2Q17

Vacancy Ratesbull Indiarsquos overall vacancy rate is expected to

rise on account of new future supplybull The good malls have done well

Rental Ratesbull Rental rates across major retail markets

have remained stable for last 1 year on account of sluggish business activity

65 69

138

4157

13

36

-03

77

106

4542 40

107

45 51

16

33 27

56

79

42

00

50

100

150

200

250

-20

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Com

plet

ions

Ab

sorp

tion

(Mill

ion

Sq F

t)

New Completions Net Absorption Vacancy

Supply Net Absorption and Vacancy of Retail Space in India

441 438 438 438 376

398 397 397

194 213 213 213

2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017

Delhi - NCR Mumbai Bengaluru

(Rental rate in INR per square metre per month)

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 242

Retail Space ndash Mall

Vacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018

Construction Status of Future Supply of Retail Malls (2017- 2019)

48

18

52

68

11

47

3

31

22

2017F 2018F 2019FProposed Excavation Upto Plinth

Less than 50 Structure Readuy 50-100 Structure Ready

Ready for fit-outs

bull In terms of supply 2017 appears to be a strong year with over 77million sq ft of net supply expected to come on stream

bull The good malls are witnessing moderate to good pre-commitmentlevels ranging between 51-75 whereas the average malls areseeing poor pre-commitments of 0-50

bull Key retail completions lined up for 2017 include the RMZ Mall inBengaluru Seawoods Grand Central in Mumbai Palladium Mall inChennai ICC Mall in Pune DLF Mall and Wave Hub Mall in NCRDelhi

bull Of the total retail supply expected in 2017 48 is in the ready forfit-outs stage while 52 is in the 50-100 structure ready stage

bull By end 2017 NCR Delhi will have a Grade A retail stock of 274million sq ft while Mumbai is expected to have a stock of 191million sq ft for Grade A retail space

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 243

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 244

Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist Destination

The travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally

Source Ministry of Tourism India

Indiarsquos Position in the World By Industry Competitiveness 40th By Air transport

Infrastructure 32nd By Price competitiveness 10th

Source Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017

527 563 669 748

865 1045

1143 1290

1432 1614

13 14 14

18 19

18 20

23

23

25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f tou

rist a

rriv

als

(mill

ions

)

Time (Years)Domestic Foreign

Domestic and Foreign Tourist Arrivals Top cities in Foreign Tourist Arrivals by Air in July 2017

GKCNew Delhi

41

Mumbai21

Chennai9

Bengluru8

Kochi7

Others15

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 245

Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming Inventory

Although hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2015

Growth of Room Supply - India

249050

1122840

1464850

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2000-01 2014-15 2019-20

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Brand Inventory across Select Asia Pacific Cities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 246

Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory Trends

Delhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities

Hotel Rooms Statistics across major cities in 2016

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Hotel Class Definition in India (as per Industry)

Star Rating 5 Star 5 Star 4-5 Star 3-4 Star 2 Star or less

Room size gt=38 gt=38 35-38 25-35 lt25

Restaurant gt=3 gt=3 1-2 1-2 Only 1

BarLounge gt=2 1-2 Only 1 Only 1 1 or none

Swimming Pool Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Gym Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Spa Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Concierge Service

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Nomandate

Branded Toiletries

Yes Yes No No No

TrademarkedBeds

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

Interior Quality Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Num

ber o

f roo

ms

Existing Supply (Rooms) Proposed Supply (Rooms)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 247

Hospitality Space ndash Supply Trends

Average room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy

Average Room Rate (US$) across Major Cities

106

61

8879

107102

89

112

7478

94

118

63

950

590

830

730

96 96

81

109

72 75

87

113

61

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 248

Hospitality Space ndash Demand Trends

Occupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year

Occupancy Rate across Major Cities

615

539

581589

617 611

480

697

571

545

678

718

613

571

549

662

627

667 667

509

707

581

609

685

743

657

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 249

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 250

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 251

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 real GDP (constant 2010 USD) accounted for 16 USD trillion showing zero percent Y-o-Y growth compared to -3 in 2015

For 2018 and 2019 GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 17 (World Bank)

Russian economy recession is slowing down with real GDP growth of 0 in 2016

GDP(constant 2010 USD) GDP per capita (constant 2010 USD)

Source World Bank

-10-8-6-4-20246810

00020406081012141618

USD

trilli

on

GDP (constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

-10-8-6-4-20246810

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

USD

GDP per capita(constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 252

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 population of Russia accounted for 1443 million people with 107 million living in urban areas Over the part 10 year share of urban population has grown by 06

Almost 74 of the population live in urban areas and this share is slowly growing

-05

-04

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

milli

on p

eopl

e

Population(million people) Y-o-Y growth

Population million people

Source World Bank

730

732

734

736

738

740

742

Urban population share

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 253

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2015 consumer price index recorded 129 amid RUB depreciation However due to RUB exchange rate stabilization inflation slowed down in 2016 to 54

After significant growth in 2015 inflation was stabilized in 2016 to a manageable level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

RU

RU

SD

RURUSD exchange rate

Source World Bank

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Rosstat

CPI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 254

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 value of mortgage loans accounted increased to 14 RUB trillion (800 thousand loans) The government pursues to increase number of mortgage loans up to 1200 loans by 2020

The mortgage loan market enjoys a strong recovery after decline in 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

- 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(asof Nov)

Thou

sand

uni

ts

RU

B Bi

llion

Mortgage loans value(RUB billion)

Numbe of mortagge loans issued (thousand units)

116

118

12

122

124

126

128

13

132

134

136

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Central Bank of Russia

Mortgage rate Mortgage loans issued (volume and value)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 255

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 256

Residential Market

Russian government is looking to improve the living standards of its citizens and upgrade the quality of urban environment by several stimulation programs

The Moscow housing

renovation program

The Mortgage and rental housing

priority project

ldquoThe Moscow housing renovation programrdquo is aimed at resettlement and demolition of a dilapidated low-rise housing stock built in 1957-1968 and at the new construction in the liberated territory it was submitted on September 26 2017 by the mayor of Moscow Duration of 15-20 years Total financing of 400 RUB billion 6 ml people to be resettled Over 25 ml m2 of residential property to be resettled and demolished (5177 houses = ~10 of total

residential area of Moscow) Similar programs will be potentially extended to other regions of Russia

The main objective of the Mortgage and rental housing priority project is to improve the living conditions of Russian citizens by Ensuring high rates of housing commissioning (goal - commissioning of 88 ml m2 of residential

space in 2018 100 ml m2 of residential space in 2020) Demand stimulation (issuance of 1 ml mortgage loans in 2018 12 ml mortgage loans in 2020)

Basic approaches of achieving the goals of the housing conditions improvement are ensuring high rates of construction of high-quality comfortable and affordable housing by including

inefficiently used federal regional and municipal lands as well as financing the construction of infrastructure as part of integrated development projects

increasing the availability of mortgage loans and reduce financial risks by forming a liquid market for mortgage securities introducing electronic bonds and the worlds best practices for disclosing information

implementation of pilot projects of specialized rental housing by using collective investment mechanisms and developing proposals for the further development of the rental market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 257

Residential Market

Demand in primary housing market significantly increased while growth in secondary market remain modest

In 2016 the number of contracts in primary housing market (new houses) increased by 80 in comparison with 2015

Secondary housing market grew only by 86

Source Konti

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

thou

sand

con

tract

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

thou

sand

con

tract

s

Number of contracts in Moscow secondary housing market(~existing homes)

Number of contracts in Moscow primary housing market(~new homes)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 258

Residential Market

Supply of new houses in Moscow declined in 2016 due to low demand in the previous year

1971 2110

3050 31463342

3920

3385

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

sq

m

46543

33091

22825 23587

4255146352 46080

56171

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

units

Source Rosstat

Commissioned living space in Moscow Number of commissioned flats in Moscow

In 2016 constructed living space accounted for 3385 thousand sq m which is 14 lower as compared with 2015 Decline can be explained by the fact that in 2015 supply outweighed demand by far

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 259

Residential Market

In 4Q 2016 average price of new residential housing accounted for 155 thousand RUBsq m which is approx 15 lower as compared with the same period of the previous year

Average price in secondary housing market declined by 4 (1809 thousand RUB sq m)

Average price growth in both primary and secondary Moscow residential market remain negative

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

thou

sand

RU

Bsq

m

Source Rosstat

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

thou

sand

RU

B sq

m

Average price of primary housing in Moscow Average price of secondary housing in Moscow

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 260

Residential Market

Supply of new housing in 2016 and average price in Moscow very depending on administrative district

District Average price(RUB per sq m) as of Dec 2016

Supply share as of Dec 2016

1 Central Administrative District 250900 12

2 Northern Administrative District 166800 13

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 168100 12

4 Eastern Administrative District 200300 8

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 145400 9

6 Southern Administrative District 179000 11

7 South-Western Administrative District 173400 8

8 Western Administrative District 212900 12

9 North-Western Administrative District 238900 18

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 88100 1

Source Blackwood

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 261

Residential Market

Backup information population of Moscow

District Population people

1 Central Administrative District 768280

2 Northern Administrative District 1158528

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 1413739

4 Eastern Administrative District 1505801

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 1380668

6 Southern Administrative District 1774351

7 South-Western Administrative District 1426227

8 Western Administrative District 1362701

9 North-Western Administrative District 988423

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 237897

1118711282

11504

1177711857

1198012108

1219812330

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Population by district as of 2016Population of Moscow thousand people

Source Rosstat Source City Population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 262

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 263

Office Market

In 2016 construction of offices fell to 313 thousand sq m which is the lowest figure over the past decade Total stock of offices accounted for 17 thousand sq m

Construction of offices has shown negative growth since 2014

Source Colliers

Total stock in Moscow

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total area of office completions in Moscow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 264

Office Market

Demand has showed negative growth in Moscow office market since 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total take-up in Moscow thousand sq m

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Source Colliers

Vacancy rate

The annual transaction volume in Moscow accounted for 850000 sq m (115 decline ) Vacancy rate for A class offices fell to by nearly 7 while B class vacancy rate remained the same

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 265

Office Market

Backup information take-up structure in Moscow

24

16

109

9

5

5

4

332

1

9

Manufacturing

Professional services

Public

Retail

IT amp Telecoms

EnergyIndustrial

Pharmacy and life science

Banking Insurance ampInvestmentConstruction anddevelopmentAutomative

Media

Vehicles Transport ampLogisticsOther

Take-up structure by sector in 2015Take-up structure by type of deal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

rent sale

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 266

Office Market

Average rental rate in USD significantly declined in 2015 due to local currency devaluation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Average rental rate USD sq m per annum in Moscow

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 267

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 268

Retail Market

Backup information total stock in Moscow and Russia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Total stock in Moscow thousand sq m Total stock in Russia thousand sq m

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 269

Retail Market

In 2016 construction of shopping centers in Moscow fell by nearly 32 to 424 thousand sq m The decline in figures for the whole country accounted for 14

Construction of shopping center has been declining since 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Source Colliers

Completion (GLA) in Moscow thousand sq m Completion (GLA) in Russia thousand sq m

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 270

Retail Market

Despite current economic condition in 2015 number of brands entered the Moscow market still far outweighs number of brands that left

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

International brands left Moscow market

International brands enterd Moscow market

Number of international brands entered Moscow market units

Source Colliers

53

22

8

17

Fashion Children goods Catering Other

Structure of brands entering Moscow in 2015

In 2015 36 new international brands entered the Moscow market while 11 announced to leave

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 271

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 272

Hotel Market

Hotel supply has been staying at the nearly the same level since 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

hote

ls u

nits

room

s u

nits

Number of rooms Number of hotels

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

num

ber o

f hot

els

room

sun

its

Number of rooms Number of hotels

Source Rosstat

Supply of hotels in Moscow Supply of hotels in Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 273

Hotel Market

Number of overnight stays in hotels also has not faced significant changes

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source Rosstat

Number of stays in hotels Moscow Number of stays in hotels Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 274

Hotel Market

As of 2016 year nearly 15000 rooms are managed by international hotel operators in the Moscow market The reawakening of Russian and international hotel chains in 2016-2017 is based heavily on the forthcoming FIFA

World

The Moscow hotel market is dominated by optimistic moods - despite tough economic conditions hoteliers noted that demand has grown since 2015

Indicator 2015 2016

Total supply of hotels managed by international operators

52 58

Number of rooms managed by international hotel operators

13 723 14 942

Average price of a sold room (ADR) Rublesday 7 245 7 815

Yield per room (RevPAR) Rublesday 4 890 5 650

Occupancy rate 675 723

Tourist flow million people 171 175

22

18

15

14

7

6

6

48

AccorHotels

InterContinental HotelsGroupCarlson Rezidor HotelGroupMarriott International

Best Western

Starwood Hotels andResorts WorldwideHilton Worldwide

AZIMUT Hotels

Others

Source Colliers

Key indicators of Moscow hotel marketMajor international hotel operators in 2016 of numbers of rooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 275

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 276

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 277

1 Macro Economy

The United States of America can be divided into 4 regions

The 4 regions of the USA include Northeast Midwest South and West

Source) US Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

Northeast South Midwest West

New York Boston Dallas Houston Chicago DetroitLos Angeles

SeattleSan

Francisco

Population ndash Ppl(2016)

8537673 673184 1317929 2303482 2704958 672795 3976322 704352 870887

GDP ndash $M USD(2016)

1657457 422660 511606 478618 651222 252691 1001677 330409 470529

Northeast Midwest

WestSouth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 278

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

Cal

iforn

iaW

ashi

ngto

nA

rizo

naC

olo

rado

Ore

gon

Uta

hN

evad

aN

ew M

exic

oId

aho

Haw

aii

Mont

ana

Ala

ska

Wyo

min

gTex

asFlo

rida

Georg

iaN

ort

h C

arolin

aV

irgi

nia

Ten

ness

eeM

aryl

and

South

Car

olin

aA

laba

ma

Loui

sian

aKen

tuck

yO

klah

om

aM

issi

ssip

piA

rkan

sas

Wes

t V

irgi

nia

Del

awar

eD

istr

ict

of C

olu

mbi

aN

ew Y

ork

Pen

nsyl

vania

New

Jer

sey

Mas

sachu

sett

sC

onn

ect

icut

New

Ham

pshi

reM

aine

Rho

de Isl

and

Ver

mont

Illin

ois

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Mis

sour

iW

isco

nsin

Min

neso

taIo

wa

Kan

sas

Neb

rask

aSouth

Dak

ota

1 Macro Economy

The population of California is 392 million Texas 278 million Florida 206 million New York 197 million and Illinois 128 million

Regarding the state-wise population California is the most populous state followed by Texas Florida New York and Illinois

Source) USCensus Bureau

State-wise population (2016)

NortheastSouthWest Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 279

1 Macro Economy

Among the top 20 cities in terms of population 6 belong to Texas The 5 cities that had their annual growth rate more than 2 after 2010 are as follows

Austin Texas 254 Seattle Washington 241 Denver Colorado 234 Fort Worth Texas 222 Charlotte North Carolina 221

In the metropolitan cities the population of New York and Los Angeles exceeds 30 millionAmong the top 20 cities in terms of population the annual growth rate of 5 cities exceeds 2 after 2010

Population (Top 20 Cities 2016)

Source) US Census Bureau

07 08

00

1518

04

19

1216

12

25

11 13 14

07

22 2224 23

08

00051015202530

-

3000000

6000000

9000000

Population (left) CAGR from 2010 to 2016 (right)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 280

1 Macro Economy

The real GDP was increased by 88 from $156 trillion in Q3 2013 to $170 trillion in Q2 2017 The real estate business grew by 27 in the most recent quarter and became the main driver of economic growth

The US real GDP has been continuously growing for the past 4 years (except Q1 2014)

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

($ billion)

Trends of real GDP Trends of GDP growth rate

Billions of chained (2009) dollars ()

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 281

Regarding the state-wise real GDP California has the highest real GDP of $25 trillion followed by Texas and New York with approximately $15 trillion However the other states have their real GDP below $1 trillion

1 Macro Economy

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

State-wise real GDP (Top 20 states Q1 2017)

($ billion)

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Millions of chained (2009) dollars

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 282

1 Macro Economy

Especially the growth rate of southern states including Texas and New Mexico was relatively high

The real GDP of 43 states and the District of Columbia grew between 2015 and 2016

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP growth by states (2015 -2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 283

1 Macro Economy

The rate of unemployment is suddenly increased after collapsing the Dotcom bubble and the Lehman shock After October 2009 it turns to decrease

In August 2017 the unemployment rate is 44 and the number of unemployed is 71 million

The unemployment rate recorded in June 2017 was 43 which was the lowest in the past 20 years

Source) US Bureau of Labor Statistics

43

63

100

44

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Lehman shock

Dotcom bubble

collapse

Unemployment rate (1997 to 2007)

()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 284

Through blockchain technology all involved parties can have a copy of the original data record allowing near-real time data record access and updates safe from tampering

The US commercial real estate market has a particular interest in the following benefits Listing Management ndash To effectively manage real estate listing data of any property in the world Secure Data Exchange ndash To securely manage data of tenant owners etc Efficient Contracting ndash To speed up exchange of data contract etc

The US market has been slowly exploring blockchain technology for commercial real estate applications

Users Data Record

Blockchain in Real Estate Overview

Blockchain

Listing Management

Secure Data Exchange

Efficient Contracting

Blockchain

Blockchain

Blockchain

1 Macro Economy

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 285

Through smart contracts blockchain technology can revolutionize how commercial real estate market parties contract

1 Macro Economy

Smart Contract Timeline Overview

Smart contracts are applications to securely execute contractual terms between involved parties through blockchain technology

Tenant Landlord Tenant Tenant Landlord

bull Tenant and landlord sign smart contract to initiate lease agreement

bull Agreement includes rental value payment terms and party details

bull Smart contract will start to enforce payment terms thus initiating lease payments from tenant to landlord

bull Upon termination of lease contract contract returns the security deposit payment to the tenant after adjustments for damages

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Landlord

Pre-Lease During Lease Post-Lease

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 286

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 287

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The most recent commercial real estate price is far larger than the previous highest of 2007Although the price continued to increase after the Lehman shock it is at peak in 2016 second half

1269

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Trends of Commercial real estate price (Commercial Property Price Index)

Source) Green Street AdvisorsMainly the prime commercial properties (real estate) were targeted

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 288

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The total amount of transactions was increased in all sectors between 2014 and 2015In 2016 only the number of apartments was increased the other real estates were declined

116

130

89

51

36

153 151

90 78

50

159

143

76

59

36

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Apartments Office Retail Industrial Hotel

2014 2015 2016

($ bil)

Trends in Transaction amount of commercial real estates (including transactions equal to or more than 25 billion)

Source) Colliers International

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 289

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

00

10

20

30

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

米国10年国債利回り(左軸) 米国REIT価格指数(右軸)

2 Real Estate Investment Market

If the future interest rates will rise the REIT price would fall in the short term Then it will rise in the medium and long term

Trends in Cap rate of main sectors

Source) NAREIT Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

REIT price index has been calculated based on FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Total Index

20134-20138Yield on the government bonds +11 pointsREIT -13

20151-20156Yield on the government bonds +07 pointsREIT -11

20167-201611Yield on the government bonds +09 pointsREIT -12

Yield on 10-year government bonds (Left axis)

USArsquos REIT price index (Right axis)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 290

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 291

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Regarding the residential market of the USA houses which were built for sale purpose accounted for 50 custom houses accounted for 15 and rental apartments that have increasingly become common in recent years accounted for 30

Trends of Residential market structure in Japan

1 Existing housing stock data pertains to FY 20132 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor and field supervisor There are three types of construction methods 1) The landlord

takes the responsibility for partial construction and asks a local contractor for the remaining construction 2) The landlord gives the task of entire construction to a local contractor 3) The landlord undertakes the entire construction work(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the landlord When the landlords construct on their own partial work of construction is given to a local contractor)

3 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor The local contractor is hired as the field supervisor and landlord does not construct at all These also include houses used for rental purpose (example temporary house of a clergyman)(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the local contractor)

Unit 10000 houses Japan Unit 10000 houses US

Number of new housing starts

967 (100) Starts by Purpose 1174 (100)

Owner-occupied houses (custom houses)

292 (30)Owner built2 49 (4)

Contractor built3 116 (10)

Sale in lots 251 (26) Built for sale 607 (52)

Detached houses 134 (14)Single-familyUnits

579 (49)

Mansions 117 (12)Building with 2units or more

28 (2)

Houses on lease (including those received as allowance)

424 (44) Built for rent 402 (34)

Existing housing stock 169 (17) Used house sales 549 (468)

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 292

In 2016 rental housing constructions were less than the preceding year

The number of detached housing construction sharply declined after reaching its peak in 2005However after hitting its lowest level in 2011 the situation became improved In parallel rental housing construction has also been growing

Trends of New housing constructions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 unit Built for sale

1 unit Contractor-built

1 unit Owner-built

2+ units For sale

2+ unitsFor rent

(Thousands)

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 293

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Less than 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

1995 2005 2015

For 10 years after 2005 the rate of house-owners who are the 25-44 year-old people had significantly declined With the decrease of houses owned by the young generation the demand for rental houses rapidly increased

Age-wise housing acquisition rate

-5 points

-10points

-10 points

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 294

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

After the Lehman shock the southern and western regions started recovering and restored to their status as in the 1990s However the midwest and north-eastern regions remained the same

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

Trends of new housing constructions (Detached houses)

(Thousands)

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 295

-

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Texa

sFl

orid

aN

orth

Car

olin

aG

eorg

iaSo

uth

Car

olin

aTe

nnes

see

Virg

inia

Loui

sian

aAl

abam

aM

aryl

and

Okl

ahom

aKe

ntuc

kyAr

kans

asM

issi

ssip

piD

elaw

are

Wes

t Virg

inia

Dis

trict

of C

olum

bia

Cal

iforn

iaAr

izon

aW

ashi

ngto

nC

olor

ado

Uta

hN

evad

aO

rego

nId

aho

New

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Haw

aii

Wyo

min

gAl

aska

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Min

neso

taM

isso

uri

Wis

cons

inIll

inoi

sIo

wa

Kans

asN

ebra

ska

Sout

h D

akot

aN

orth

Dak

ota

Penn

sylv

ania

New

Yor

kN

ew J

erse

yM

assa

chus

etts

Mai

neN

ew H

amps

hire

Con

nect

icut

Verm

ont

Rho

de Is

land

Texas and Florida in the southern region stood out with the maximum number of approvals for the construction of detached houses In looking at the other regions California had more than 50000 approvals but the rest had 30000 or less

NortheastSouth West Midwest

State-wise number of Approvals for new housing constructions (Detached houses 2016)

(Number of approvals)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 296

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

San Jose

San Francisco

Honolulu

San Diego

Los Angeles

Houston

Dallas

Atlanta

Phoenix

Washington

Seattle

New YorkDenver

BostonPortland

In the metropolitan areas in south such as Texas have a great number of new housing constructions while cities with high residential prices are concentrated in California

Main southern cities

Main cities in California

Other mature cities in the entire USA

City-wise Residential prices and Approvals for new housing constructions (2016)

Prices of detached houses (in thousand dollars)

Num

ber o

f appro

vals for d

etac

hed h

ouse

starts

Source US Census Bureau National Association of Realtors

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 297

The number of rental housing constructions was suddenly increasing after 2009 but the number constructions was decreasing after 2015 except for the western region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

(Thousands)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 298Source) US Census Bureau

The calculation has been done based on the running average of data for all the four quarters

Trends in percentage of owner-occupied houses Trends in Percentage of vacant houses

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

The rate of owned houses and vacant houses continued to decrease together but this fall came to the end in 2016

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 20170 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 299

There is no any significant change in the trends of most recent rents

Trends of region-wise rent (Median)

($)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

西部

北東部

南部

中西部

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

West

Northeast

South

Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 300

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

Source US Census Bureau

Number of new housing starts

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The Seattle metropolitan area includes 3 counties ndash Snohomish King and Pierce

After the Lehman shock many large-scale apartments were constructed in the Seattle metropolitan area (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA)

(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 301

The average price of detached houses is about $500000 With land prices the cost of construction is also sharply risen

Year Land HomeValue

Structure Cost Land Value

2000 $278695 $112257 $166438 5972001 $292826 $119354 $173471 5922002 $303519 $121947 $181572 5982003 $323773 $125821 $197952 6112004 $359056 $141585 $217471 6062005 $424912 $152219 $272692 6422006 $479951 $163874 $316077 6592007 $488499 $172756 $315744 6462008 $431855 $186623 $245231 5682009 $387317 $191347 $195970 5062010 $368625 $194053 $174572 4742011 $346949 $204023 $142926 4122012 $372227 $207086 $165142 4442013 $419730 $215593 $204137 4862014 $446107 $233255 $212852 4772015 $488054 $236426 $251628 516

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Q4 data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 302

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

Regarding the Seattlersquos local residential market more than 50 of the houses are apartments In the suburbs the number of detached houses and apartments are almost same

Source US Census Bureau

Figure showing the Seattle city and the surrounding areasNumber of approvals for housing starts in Areas surrounding

the Seattle city (King County) (2016)

Other areas refer to the total number of cities in the King Country

SeattleBellevue

Redmond

Other area

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Other areas

Redmond

Bellevue

Seattle

1-unit 2-units and up (House)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 303

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The vacancy rate of rental houses is rapidly decreasing which is less than 3 in the all metropolitan areas In the post-2014 the standard rent of Seattle was significantly higher than the average rent of metropolitan areas

Trends of Vacancy rate Trends of Rent (Median)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

$400

$600

$800

$1000

$1200

$1400

$1600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

0~

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 304

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The number of new housing constructions (including both detached houses and apartments) in the Dallas metropolitan area (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA) showed recovery with more than 25000 constructions

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

0

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 305

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The average price of detached houses is $250000The cost of construction is dramatically rising accounting for 70 of the home value

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Year Land ShareHome Value Structure

Cost Land Value

2000 $173678 $92517 $81161 467

2001 $182559 $98406 $84154 461

2002 $186525 $100648 $85877 460

2003 $187431 $104288 $83143 444

2004 $190797 $116052 $74745 392

2005 $199596 $124130 $75466 378

2006 $202951 $132730 $70221 346

2007 $200595 $139192 $61403 306

2008 $193454 $150854 $42599 220

2009 $196089 $150857 $45232 231

2010 $189138 $153876 $35263 186

2011 $187611 $161438 $26173 140

2012 $198238 $163952 $34286 173

2013 $218014 $169417 $48597 223

2014 $234604 $182252 $52352 223

2015 $256583 $236426 $72860 284

Q4 data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 306

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the cities such as Dallas Fort Worth Frisco and McKinney a large number of detached houses and apartments are constructed In particular the surrounding areas of Dallas have mainly apartments whereas the northern region mainly has detached houses

Main cities in the suburbs of Dallas Number of approvals for housing starts in main cities (2016)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Detached houses

+ Apartments

FortWorth

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Celina

Prosper

Little Elm

Irving

Farmers Branch

Carrollton

Garland

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Farmers Branch

Garland

Carrollton

Irving

Prosper town

Celina

Little Elm

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Fort Worth

1-unit 2-units and up

Mainly detached houses

Mainly apartments

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 307

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the northern part of Dallas there are successive expansions and relocations of offices of large companies The increase in employment depends on the increase in population

Large-scale offices recently relocated to areas surrounding the Fresco city

Source Plano Economic Development

Company name ServiceYear of

completionNumber of employees

Capital One Finance Headquarter 2017 5500

JP Morgan Chase amp CoUnder

construction6000

NTT DataNorth America

HQ2017 2250

West Plano

submarket

Frisco

Location of each city

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 308

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 309

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

4 Office market

Since the 2008 global financial crisis US employment has been recovering quickly

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

US unemployment rate is lower than it had been a decade ago before the financial crisis consequently leading to an increase in those in the US workforce

US Unemployment Rate US Employees

Rate ()

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

Employees(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 310

4 Office market

The US has also witnessed a rise in the number of new established companies thus presenting new opportunities for office real estate market

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

Each year the number of established companies less than 1 year old or newly established companies has been rising since the financial crisis

Corporate Establishments Less than 1 Year Old

400

500

600

700

800

No of Established Co(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 311

Among New York Houston Chicago and San Francisco Houston is the only city headed downwards in GDP

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

4 Office market

Certain cities in the US have shown comparably noticeable traits of market opportunities

New York

Houston

Chicago

San Francisco

GDP ndash New York Houston Chicago San Francisco

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP($B USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 312

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 313

5 Hotel market

With the increasing number of trips the US hotel industry will soon face the need for more lodging space

Source) US Travel Association

The number of people traveling is increasing eventually requiring more accommodation spaces The number of domestic travels within the US is far higher than the number of international travels to the US

Travels within US (Domestic) Travels to US (International)

170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 314

By class segmentations the higher-end hotels have been constructing more hotel spaces to respond to the rising demands

US hotel classes are segmented by primarily according to average room rates In a descending order the segmentation follows Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale

Economy Unaffiliated hotels are hotels not affiliated with a member organization thus varying widely in size quality and cost

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Feb 2017) Under Construction (Feb 2017)

Luxury

Upper Upscale

Upscale

Midscale

Unaffiliated

Economy

Upper Midscale

236

1167

1383

1795

937

1524

2958

437

1412

31933254

432121

1152

Pric

e

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 315

By cities New York has been constructing double triple the amount of hotels compared to other metropolitan areas

Although Las Vegas leads in the total number of existing hotels New York has been constructing more hotel spaces

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Mar 2017) Under Construction (Mar 2017)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 316

5 Hotel market

Even by some of the more well-known tourist destination cities the RevPAR is predicted to continue to increase

Source) HVS Global Hospitality Services

Like the nationwide trend individual cities have also experienced slow growth in terms of RevPAR since the 2008 global financial crisis

New York is notably much higher in terms of RevPAR in comparison to other metropolitan cities

US Hotels ndash RevPAR by City

New York NY

Los Angeles CA

Washington DC

Las Vegas NV

Chicago IL

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rev ($ USD)

Estimated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 317

5 Hotel market

While Airbnb does pose as an lodging alternative to hotels the performance of one market does not impact the other

Source) Boston University

Boston University conducted research on the relationship between Airbnb and hotels in Boston Though Airbnb experienced increases in occupancy growth and RevPAR the gains did not affect the Boston hotelsrsquo

performance

Hotels

Airbnb

Boston ndash Occupancy amp RevPAR (2015-2016)

Occupancy Rate ()

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

Rev ($ USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

中国

Yinghua BAI PhDNRI Shanghai Division Manager

Expertise urban planning regional development and planning of real estate business strategy

Wen WANGNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise regional development industrial strategy and planning of real estate business strategy

Siwei LIUNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise real estate business strategy China marketingbusiness strategy of Japanese companies

Fang QINRI Shanghai Asst Consultant

Expertise regional development planning of real estate business strategy

韓国

JaRyong CHOINRI Seoul Sr Exec Director

Expertise real estate and retail business strategy urban and regional development investment planning

KangTae PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

SungWoo PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

台湾

Michihiro KONAGAINRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise infrastructure development and business strategy planning in infrastructure market

Chi han CHIANGNRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise policy and development planning PPP advisory in land development domain

Jen-hua LiuNRI Taiwan Asst Consultant

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

シンガポール

Toshiro TAKEKOSHINRI Singapore Department Head

Expertise infrastructure (real estate energy) business management and business strategies cross border MampA

Yen-Fen TEOHNRI Singapore Sr Consultant

Sana TAMURANRI Singapore Consultant

Ceputra SALIMNRI Singapore Assoc Consultant

タイ

Yuji KatoNRI Thailand Gr Manager

Expertise infrastructure business (real estate energy) finance

Panitha TeerasorakaiNRI Thailand Consultant

Orachorn SupunsaleekhulNRI Thailand Business Analyst

インド

Arpit MATHURNRI India Sr Consultant

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy and alliances real estate development support etc

Prashant AGGARWALNRI India Consultant

Expertise MampA transaction advisory business strategy financial modelling and business planning etc

Junmyong RANRI India Group Manager

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy ASEAN business strategy investment advisory etc

SungYun (Sonny) KIMNRI India President

Expertise Real estate investment market incl behavioral investment securitization financial crisis etc

Hikojiro ISOZAKINRI Global Knowledge Centre Head

Expertise Automotive and Infrastructure sector advisory investment strategy etc

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

ロシア

Andrei RODIONOVMoscow Br Div Director

Expertise business strategy global marketing MampA

Alexander KHARKOVMoscow Br Consultant

Expertise marketing in Russia business strategy economic regulation

アメリカ

Keitaro HiroseNRI Consultant

Expertise Business Strategy in Real estate and Infrastructure industry

Joshua ChoiNRI America Sr Research Analyst

Expertise Business Strategy IoT Emerging Technology

Makiko TanakaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy Fintech AI

Sherry KitajimaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy AI

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

Contact

Inquiry about this report generally or our solutions for real estate industry[Mail] real-estate-reportnricojp [Language] Japanese English

Inquiry about contents of each sectionChina [Mail] real-estate-report-CHNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Original) EnglishKorea [Mail] real-estate-report-KORnricojp [Language] Japanese Korean EnglishTaiwan [Mail] real-estate-report-TWNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Simplified) EnglishSingapore [Mail] real-estate-report-SGPnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishThailand [Mail] real-estate-report-THAnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishIndia [Mail] real-estate-report-INDnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishRussia [Mail] real-estate-report-RUSnricojp [Language] English RussianUSA [Mail] real-estate-report-USAnricojp [Language] Japanese English

Inquiry about reprinting or quotation of this report[Mail] kouhounricojp [Language] Japanese English

  • The Global Real Estate Market 2017
  • スライド番号 2
  • スライド番号 3
  • スライド番号 4
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • スライド番号 18
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Land Market in China
  • スライド番号 25
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Residential Market in China
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • House supply policy of China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Prospects of Chinas residential market
  • スライド番号 36
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • スライド番号 45
  • Prospects of commercial real estate market in China
  • スライド番号 47
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • スライド番号 51
  • スライド番号 52
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • スライド番号 60
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • スライド番号 68
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • スライド番号 76
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • スライド番号 82
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • スライド番号 89
  • スライド番号 90
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • スライド番号 98
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • スライド番号 104
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • スライド番号 113
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • スライド番号 117
  • (Reference)
  • スライド番号 119
  • Population Trend
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks
  • スライド番号 128
  • Office market- Geographic Area
  • Office market- Stock and Vacancy
  • Office market- Price and Rental Index
  • Office market- Future Supply
  • Office market- Cap rate
  • スライド番号 134
  • Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate
  • Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property
  • Residential market ndashFuture Supply
  • Residential market-Cap Rate
  • スライド番号 142
  • Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate
  • Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space
  • Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore
  • Retail market-CAP Rate
  • Retail market- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 148
  • Logistics Space- Geographic Area
  • Logistics Space- Demand Trend
  • Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy
  • Logistics Space- Rental Index
  • Logistics Space- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 154
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)
  • Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply
  • Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue
  • Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline
  • スライド番号 162
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • スライド番号 167
  • スライド番号 168
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • スライド番号 181
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • スライド番号 187
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies
  • スライド番号 199
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • スライド番号 204
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • スライド番号 210
  • スライド番号 211
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population GrowthIndia is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid UrbanizationIndia is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of EconomyAlthough the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world
  • スライド番号 217
  • Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and GrowthThe construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure
  • Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players PerformanceThe real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes
  • Financing Developments ndash Project Financing OptionsPrivate lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed
  • Financing Developments Trends in REITsREITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry
  • Financing Developments Trends in Domestic InvestmentsDomestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects
  • Financing Developments Trends in Foreign InvestmentsForeign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics
  • Financing Developments Debt position of leading developersDebt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default
  • スライド番号 225
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesGlobal PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesMajor global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesRecently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion
  • スライド番号 229
  • Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy ConditionsFDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years however recent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector
  • スライド番号 231
  • Regulatory Developments ndash DemonetizationDemonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017
  • スライド番号 233
  • Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal SizeThe ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad
  • Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costsNew Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list
  • スライド番号 237
  • Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Residential Space ndash Supply Trends
  • スライド番号 240
  • Retail Space ndash Overall OutlookThe retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes
  • Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Retail Space ndash MallVacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018
  • スライド番号 244
  • Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist DestinationThe travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally
  • Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming InventoryAlthough hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory TrendsDelhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply TrendsAverage room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy
  • Hospitality Space ndash Demand TrendsOccupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year
  • スライド番号 250
  • スライド番号 251
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • スライド番号 256
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • スライド番号 263
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • スライド番号 268
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • スライド番号 272
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • スライド番号 276
  • スライド番号 277
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • スライド番号 287
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • スライド番号 291
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • スライド番号 309
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • スライド番号 313
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • スライド番号 319
  • スライド番号 320
  • スライド番号 321
  • スライド番号 322
  • スライド番号 323
Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized
03 4919 2929 0 0 0 0 0 0
04 12344 6189 5458 0 0 0 0 0
05 24064 15716 7312 9248 0 0 0 0
06 35082 20048 14636 11758 3173 0 0 0
07 72317 42532 34987 1854 7953 1223 1446 0
08 6508 3439 26179 1561 762 10519 6422 0
09 4945 28821 20857 10018 3758 4861 5197 0
10 76738 47631 39742 17782 6188 1220 7522 0
11 104025 87777 5322 27407 12393 16405 13105 0
12 112013 93221 56364 24259 11898 1450 13616 0
13 130698 107712 68086 47917 15109 31961 17999 0
14 159443 115798 80495 64488 1741 4230 18342 0
15 163131 109375 75232 6225 16744 45395 18358 6831
16 168423 127015 82747 6425 13784 41719 19079 7627
17 172877 138636 90674 69255 18147 46492 18982 1031
03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03
04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04
05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
Page 2: The Global Real Estate Market 2017 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 1

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 2

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 3

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 4

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Chinarsquos GDP overtook Japan in 2010 and the gap will expand after 2012 But itrsquos somewhat eased in 2016

(bn USD)

Source IMF

Changes in Japan and Chinarsquos nominal GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 5

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Real GDP growth rate has been on a downward trend since 2007and it hasreachedthe lowest level in 2015 whichrsquos behind the transition from investment-led growth to consumption-led growth

Source The National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes in real GDP growth rate of China and sectoral contribution

()

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Net Exports Gross Capital Formation Consumption Real GDP Growth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 6

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

The national average of per capita GDP in 2015 increased by 3222 yuan as compared with 2014 Just as the three big cities of Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Jiangsu Province has also reached high income national standard of US$12616

(RMB)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note World Bank definition of high-income country GDP per capita ge USD 12616 (about RMB 83619 according to the rate on November 1 2017)

High-income country Average RMB 83619

GDP per capita by provincemunicipality directly under the central government (2015)

China Average RMB 50251(2014 data RMB 46629)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 7

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

In the background of industrial upgrading the tertiary industries have been growing with their contribution to a GDP growth of over 50 in 2016 This growth became the main factor for increasing real estate investment in urban areas

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(100 mil Yuan)

Trends of Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Overall GDP GDP of tertiary industries Percentage of tertiary industries accounting for in GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 8

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

From 2014 to 2015 the proportion of tertiary industry was increasing in every region Shanxi Gansu Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces showed particularly high growth rates of more than 5

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Percentage of tertiary industry GDP as a whole by region (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Beiji

ng

Shan

ghai

Xiz

ang

Hai

nan

Shan

xi

Tia

njin

g

Heilo

ngjia

ng

Gua

ngd

ong

Zhejia

ng

Gan

su

Jia

ngsu

Chongq

ing

Lia

oni

ng

Shan

dong

Yunna

n

Gui

zhou

Xin

jiang

Nin

gxia

Hunan

Sic

huan

Hube

i

Fik

oam

Qin

ghai

Shan

xi

Neim

eng

gu

Henan

Hebe

i

Jia

ngxi

Anh

ui

Jili

n

Gua

ngx

i

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2015)

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2014)

China Average(2015)502

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 9

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population

The peak-out of productive-age population is coming therersquos a widespread concern about economic slowdown

Source Compiled by NRI from UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

(1950=100)Peak

Productive-age population of China and Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 10

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

After 2015 when it is estimated Chinas demographic dividend disappears the government has to face an increased financial burden a decrease of the labor force a consumption slump and other problems due to a declining birthrate and aging population

As a countermeasure in January 2016 the government abolished the ldquoOne-child policyrdquo and formally adopted the ldquoTwo-childrdquo policy At present there are many families who canrsquot produce the second child due to high childcare expenses and education costs However looking at the remarkable population increase in 2016 it can be seen that this policy was effective

The number of births in China in 2016 was 1788 million which increased by 132 million compared with 1654 million the averagenumber of births from 2012 to 2015

On the other hand for the proportion of people over 65 years old it has exceeded 10 in 2016 following Japan China is predicted to enter an aging society after 2025 and into a super aged society after 2035( If the aging rate exceeds 14 it is classified as aged society if over 21 it is classified as super aged society)

As the measures to cope with declining production population and the rise in the number of elderly population Two-child policy has been officially introduced since 2016 which is expected to boost economic growth

() ()

Change in proportion of young population (lt15)

Source UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

Change in proportion of 65+ population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 11

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Chinarsquos urbanization rate had risen by more than 30 points from 1991 to 2016 The National New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) was issued by the State Council of China on 16th March 2014 The plan highlights

that it is essential to raise the quality of urbanization that comes in line with the Chinese approach to urbanization The plan also underlined that by 2020 permanent urban residents will reach approx 60 of the population while residents in the city census register will account for approx 45 of the total population with 100 million rural residents settling down in the urban areas

Urbanization rate in 2016 reached 574 which is expected to reach 60 of the policy goal in 2020 in another two years

Note) Total population in 2020 is the estimate value of UN while the urbanization rate is the target value stated in government policy

(10000 People )

Source China Statistical Yearbook amp UN World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision

Population and urbanization rate in china

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

30000

60000

90000

120000

150000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20ETotal Population Urban Population Urban Population Ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 12

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Urbanization which has progressed mainly in the coastal area has progressed to inland regions and the Northeast such as Liaoning Chongqing Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang The four provinces of Tibet Shandong Guizhou and Hebei are particularly fast to progress in this year

Urbanization rate of China by area (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Shan

ghai

Bei

jing

Tia

njin

gG

uangd

ong

Lia

onin

gJia

ngs

uZhe

jiang

Fik

oam

Cho

ngq

ing

Neim

eng

guH

eilo

ngj

iang

Shan

dong

Hube

iJili

nN

ingx

iaH

aina

nShan

xiShan

xiJia

ngx

iH

ebe

iH

una

nA

nhu

iQ

ingh

aiSic

hua

nXin

jiang

Gua

ngx

iH

ena

nYunn

anG

ansu

Gui

zhou

Xiz

ang

2014 Ratio() 2015 Ratio()

China Average(2015)561

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 13

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions

Although the newly constructed housing construction area in the urban area which peaked in 2011 had a somewhat declining trend since 2011 when the real estate market regulation were implemented it still was over 1 billion square meters per year

(100 million m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics amp MOHURD China

(m2 per capita)

Changes in construction area of new houses in urban areas Changes in housing area per capita in urban areas

CAGR174

Note) Until 2012 public data from the National Bureau of Statistics is used while the data of 2013 -2016used is published by MOHURD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 14

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend

In the past 16 years the per capita disposable income in urban areas increased at an average growth rate of more than 10 indicating a steady growth in Chinas urban Individual consumption ability

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(RMB)

Disposable Income per Capita and Growth Rate in Urban Areas

CAGR107

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 15

Nationwide average 62 of household income per capita is due to salary income and 17 is due to transfer income The cities with high property revenues including real estate income are Beijing (15) Shanghai (14) Zhejiang (11) and Yunnan (11)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note Salary income wage income Business revenue revenue from commercial buying and selling activities Asset income revenue from moveables and real estate Transfer income income from severance pay pension etc

(RMB)

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

Source of annual household income per capita of urban population by region (2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 16

Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2015 exceeded 30 billion yuan which was 77 times as much as that of 2000 Especially since 2007 it increased at an annual growth rate of 16 per year and urged construction demand of commercial facilities

(100 mil Yuan)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and Its Growth Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 17

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 18

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment which shows about 20 of fixed asset investment in urban areas has expanded at a rate of 20 since 2000 However it has declined to a low level due to the recent slowdown in fixed assets growth

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

Growth Rate Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

CAGR218

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 19

Chinas Real Estate Investment

In the three areas of Beijing (56) Shanghai (55) and Hainan (51) real estate investment in urban fixed asset investment is high In proportion to other areas the areas of less than 50 is more than 18 of nationwide average

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

National Average (18)

The Ratio of Real Estate Investment in Urban Fixed Asset Investment by Region in 2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 20

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Regarding the ratio of real estate investment to fixed asset investment all of the regions declined in 2015 compared to the previous year except for North China region Real estate activities are still most active in the southwestern region

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi ShandongSouth Central China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi HainanSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region in 2015

Overtime Comparison of Growth Rate of Proportion of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region (2014-2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 21

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment in Urban China has been a major driving force in GDP growth so far In recent years the growth of GDP is slowing somewhat due to the slump in real estate investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The conventional housing distribution system was abolished

Change in Growth Rates of GDP and of Real Estate Investment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 22

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Even if the real estate investment value rises year by year 23 of that is still housing investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The Percentage of HousingCommercialOffice Investments in Real Estate Investment (2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 23

Land Market in China

In urban areas of China both commercial and residential land tend to be higher and in terms of historical trends prices of residential land and commercial land will rise at a pace that is significantly higher than the overall average Land price is continuously increasing

While the land supply of urban areas is restricted by the government intense bid auction between real estate development companies is also a factor that invariably leads to an increase in land prices

Land price temporarily declined in 2011 due to the influence of real estate market regulation but after that its turning again to an upward trend Its particularly noteworthy that the increase rate of residential land prices was doubling in 2016 compared with the previous year

Source China urban land price monitoring data

(RMBm2)()

Change in Land prices in urban areas of China Change in Land price appreciation rates in urban areas of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 24

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 25

Chinarsquos Residential Market

During the 10 years to 2011 there was a period in which the supply speed of commercial housing slowed down due to a tightening or adjustment of policy Needs for housing however expanded and the completed area was raised by a high average growth rate of 117

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down The housing supply volume from 2014 to 2015 has been reduced by 10 We can see that the housing supply is decelerating

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down and the deceleration of housing supply in urban areas will be strengthened

(10000 m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The area of commercial residencesrsquo completion in China

CAGR117

CAGR-02

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 26

Chinarsquos Residential Market

In 2015 the number of new commodity houses completed in China is 755 million units which is 293 times as large as the number of newly built houses launched in Japan in 241 units

In 2015 the supply of commodity housing in urban area of China is 750 thousand which is equivalent to the scale of about 29 times of the sale of residential housing in Japan although it is 8 lower than the previous year

(10000 House) (m2 per house )

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The number of commercial residence completions and transition of its average completion area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 27

Residential Market in China

Approximately 30 of the housing construction area is concentrated in the four municipalities of Chongqing Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Construction area decreased more than 60 of cities from the previous year Growth of regional cities such as Lanzhou Nanjing and Guiyang attracts particular attention

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Areas of Completed Residential Properties among Major Cities

National Average Growth Rate10

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 28

Chinas Residential Market

The selling price of commercial residences has risen by 32 times during the last 15 years with this trend being especially evident among luxury properties

(RMBm2)

Note) Since sales prices of the economical housing for low-and-middle income earners in 2011 were not reported in the China Statistical Yearbook 2012 the data here was calculated on the basis of data in 2010 by CAGR at 110

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Selling price of commercial residences in China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 29

Chinas Residential Market

Sale price of residential properties has risen by more than 80 in the last 7 years Shenzhen Shanghai Nanjing and Xiamen each have a price increase of 13 times or more

(RMBm2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Sale Price of Commercial Housing in Major Cities (Comparison between 2008 and 2015)

National Average Growth Rate81

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Selling Prices in 2008 (left scale) Selling Prices in 2015(left scale) Increase in 7 years since 2008(right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 30

Chinas Residential Market

For the past 15 years the annual income ratio of house price in China has changed to about seven times but there was not much change

Shenzhen Shanghai and Beijing are particularly fluctuating Especially in Shenzhen the house price annual income ratio of this 15 years rises nearly five times and it becomes the city which is the most difficult to obtain housing in China

With respect to the annual income ratio of house price Shenzhen is the highest at 28 times followed by Shanghai (21 times) Beijing (18 times) and magnifications tend to expand from the previous year in addition to Guangzhou and Shenyang

Source Statistical material by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the National Bureau of Statistics

(Times)

The housing selling prices to income ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 31

House supply policy of China

Monetary easing policies were implemented after the Lehman shock resulted in skyrocketing housing prices in Beijing Shanghai and other major cities in China As a countermeasure the Chinese government implemented a series of policies that made it more difficult for the acquisition of houses after October 2009

Although house price fluctuations were affected by political tightening and repetition of mitigation and others it was never stopped to raise housing prices especially in large cities while rather acquiring houses became increasingly difficult

Although the policy implemented by the government from 2009 had some effects in reducing housing prices it could never stop the housing price rise and housing acquisition difficulties

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Monthly sales price of commercial housing compared with that of the same month in the previous year (after 2007)

End of 2008 Economic recovery through reduction of interest rates and exemption of real estate acquisition tax etc

October 2009Implementation of housing price suppression policies Abolishment of tax incentives (real estate transaction tax and personal income tax) Implementation of differentiated housing loan policy

March ~ April 2010Purchase of house was limited in 48 cities Higher down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Restriction of banking loan to developers

January 2011Further increase of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Trial introduction of property tax for the third house in Shanghai and Chongqing Increase of house supply through provision of affordable houses

September 2014 Decrease of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house by the central bank Policy for limiting house purchases was abolished in most cities Promoted expansion of financing route and supported banks and other financial institutions to issue housing bonds and REITs

Restriction Easing Easing

()

February~March 2016bull In cities without purchase constraints the

reduction of initial payment of housing loan to 20 was possible

bull Possible further reduction in real estate transaction taxes and business tax

April 2016bull Only First Class Cities such as Shanghai

Shenzhen successively issued new policies to constrain purchases

February~March 2015bull The central government and regional governments will issue

relaxation policies such as consumption acceleration of houses at stock in the Second- and Third-class cities tax reduction supply of subsidies to solve regionality and constitutive issuesof the real estate industry

Restriction

March 2017bull The Tier1 and Tier2

cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen have launched regulation policies continuously

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 32

Government Housing Policy in China

Chinas housing market has been spurred as a vicious circle like if policy loosens itll be overheating If policy ties down itll cool downldquo and it has been supported by high demand so the price rise is expected to continue focusing on 70 cities around the future

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The change of cities number with the housing pricersquos deviation at the link relative ratio in the 70 major cities of China (2011-20179)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 33

Government Housing Policy in China

In July 2017 the government announced the latest policy about the development acceleration of the lease house market targeting at the large and medium-sized cities where lack lease house seriously

The extracts of Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a

net population inflow ( publication with July 26 2017 )

There is a large population to flow into the large and medium-sized cities every year in China The actuality is that the absolutely needed quantity of the leasehold property is insufficient The floating population in 2016 of China reaches 245 million In addition the annual new college graduates are about 7 million people

According to the rental market research report published by Lianjia Research Institute of a large real estate intermediary company focusing on Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou the floating population in Tier1 cities will account for more than 40 of the overall population in the future

In order to solve the new housing problem of the citizens in large and medium cities in July 2017 Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a net population inflow (Hereinafter referred to briefly as ldquonotificationrdquo)

According to the notification in the large and medium cities with a net population inflow therersquore some problems with insufficient total rental housing market disorder imperfect of payment support system and introduced relevant policies to speed up the construction of rental housing and rental housing market cultivation and development

Promote more specialized and large-scale enterprises engaged in leasing residential enterprises

Establish a government property rental housing transaction service platform

Expand the supply of rental housing Renewal of rental housing management and service system

The extracts of the model plan of utilizing a group construction site to build the lease house(publication with August 28 2017)

Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other developments selected Beijing Shanghai Shenyang Nanjing Hangzhou Hefei Xiamen Zhengzhou Wuhan Guangzhou Foshan Zhaoqing Chengdu and other 13 cities as pilot cities for the development of rental housing policy

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 34

Prospects of Chinas residential market

In 2018 the characteristics of residential market in China are as below The rental housing market in the Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is on the rise and the supply scale of the medium and large housing has expanded

Directions of Chinas residential market in 2018

bull The contradiction between the inflow of new population and the unaffordable housing in large and medium-sized cities has widened

Increase the supply of rental housing in Tier1 and Tier2 cities with significant population inflow

bull The new housing requirements spawned by ldquotwo-child policyrdquo and the maintenance demand to child care-related service

The demand for large and medium sized housing that value child-rearing and related service enrichment is expanding

bull The diversification of residential demand in Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is coexistent with high housing price

Strong Tier1 and Tier2 cities have boosted the residential market in Tier3 and Tier4 cities

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 35

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 36

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

As a result of the slowdown in consumption growth and the impact of e-commerce the supply of commercial facilities has been gradually decreasing in the years since 2013

(10 thousand m2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Nationwide Commercial Facilities Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 37

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Investment in commercial facilities has been steadily increasing at an average annual rate of 26 by 2014 but significant investment continued to decelerate after that

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Investment Amount and Growth Rate of Commercial Facilities

CAGR230

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 38

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

The average sale price of commercial facilities has recovered slightly in the past two years and has increased in north China and eastern China and has decreased in south China

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in China

The sale areas and sale price of commercial facilities in eachregion(2015 and 2016)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

North China Northeast

China

Eastern

China

South Central

China

Southwest

China

Northwest

China

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (left scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (right scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 39

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Sales of commercial facilities in Guizhou Chongqing Hainan Henan and Gansu have all doubled in the last five years By contrast sales in the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning Heilongjiang and Jilin) have declined significantly

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities by Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 40

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

Office supply in urban areas in China has experienced a downturn after the Lehman Brothersrsquo failure in 2008 however a growing trend with a low completion rate continues as a whole

(10 thousand m2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Change in Nationwide Office Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 41

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

By 2014 due to the rapid increase in investment in the office market the construction of office buildings also welcomed Immediate peach And in the last three years as investment growth has slowed the office market has regained its stability

(100 mil Yuan)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Investment Amount Growth Rate of Office Development

CAGR21

CAGR33

CAGR8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 42

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

More than 40 of office sales are concentrated in eastern China In the last two years the sales volume has increased by more than 30 which is concentrated in east China and north China and the unit price has been increasing again

(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices in China Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices by Area (2014 and 2015)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

North China Northeast China Eastern China South Central

China

Southwest China Northwest China

Sales Spaces of Office in 2015 (left scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Office in 2015 (right scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 43

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

In the last five years sales of office buildings in Shandong Xinjiang Guizhou and Chongqing have been extremely brisk In contrast Liaoning and Tianjin saw a significant reduction in sales volume

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Office Sales Spaces by Region

14082

-562

88282

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 44Source Public information of Commercial Property Cloud Think Tank

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Chinarsquos commercial real estate market tendency of shopping center

In recent years the opening area of shopping center in eastern China has been in the first place but it has shown a deceleration trend On the other hand central China is more in Tier2 cities and inland cities where the development of shopping centers is booming

In 2016 the number of newly opened large-scale shopping centers in China was 465 which have a total development area of 43193500increasing by 321 compared to 2015

In 2016 the area with the most new openings was east China followed by north China and south China Compared with the slowdown in central China the development of the southwest region has attracted considerable attention

The opening area of the first-class city accounts for about 15 of the total and the new first-class city with remarkable growth accounts for 25 of the total Small scale projects of less than 200000 are mainstream

The area and quantity of new opening shopping centers in 2016 Number of new start-up shopping centers by size in 2016

Note) The shopping center here is counted only for large projects over 30000 Note) First-class cities refer to the four cities of Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou and ShenzhenNewfirst class cities refer to the 15 cities of Chengdu Hangzhou Wuhan Tianjin Nanjing Chongqing Xian Changsha Qingdao Shenyang Dalian Xiamen Suzhou Ningbo and Wuxi

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 45

Prospects of commercial real estate market in China

In 2018 the commercial real estate market in China needs to build a construction facility and operation management system that adapts to the present era and citizens consumption behavior

Directions of Chinas real estate market in 2018

bull Update needs of existing traditional commercial business Differentiation development needs during commercial setting Compounding construction needs in commercial development delayed region

Modification of existing commerce centered on Tier1 and Tier2 cities new construction of Lifestyle-based small-scale specialty commerce and construction of a large complex commercial centering on Tier3 and Tier4 cities

bull Activation of everyday consumer behavior relying on online more and more in theTier1 and Tier2 cities

Establishment of a new commercial business model including the introduction of online-offline business model and examination of operations management system accordingly

bull Lack of a convenient community of nearby commercials that can adapt to todays era and citizens life

Construction of a living-oriented neighborhood commerce tackling many business styles such as childcare and senior services

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 46

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 47

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In 2016 the top 10 companies were the same as last year but the ranking changed The most notable was that Evergrande Real Estate surpassed the industrys largest enterprise Vanke Real Estate to become the No1 in the industry

Rank2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales1 Vanke Group 1215 Vanke Group 1452 Vanke Group 1776 Vanke Group 2120 Vanke Group 2627 Poly Group 2627

2 Dalian Wanda Group 953 Poly Group 1020 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1625 Shanghai Greenland Group 2080 Evergrande Group 2050 Vanke Group 2050

3 EvergrandeGroup 804 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1013 Poly Group 1251 DalianWanda Group 1501 Shanghai Greenland

Group 2015 Country Garden 2015

4 Shanghai Greenland Group 770 China Overseas

Land 945 China Overseas Land 1103 Evergrande Group 1376 Dalian

Wanda Group 1513 Shanghai Greenland Group 1513

5 Poly Group 732 Dalian Wanda Group 938 Evergrande Group 1073 Poly Group 1362 China Overseas

Land 1492 Poly Group 1492

6 China Overseas Land 708 Evergrande Group 925 Country Garden 1068 Country Garden 1250 Poly Group 1471 China Overseas

Land 1471

7 Country Garden 432 China Greentown 547 Dalian Wanda Group 844 China Overseas

Land 1152 Country Garden 1402 Longfor Group 1402

8 Longfor Group 383 China Resources Land 505 China Resources

Land 688 Shimao Property Holdings 708 China Resources

Land 851 RampF Properties 851

9 China Greentown 353 Country Garden 491 Shimao Property Holdings 683 China Resources

Land 700 Sunac China 731 Country Garden 731

10 China Resources Land 330 Shimao Property

Holdings 461 China Greentown 660 Sunac China 658 China Fortune Land Development 725 Dalian Wanda

Group 725

TotalSales 6680 8297 10771 12907 14877 22022

Total Share within

National Sales

113 129 133 169 170 1872

Average Coverage 405 Cities 531 Cities 672 Cities 737 Cities 751 Cities 875 Cities

Source) Compiled by NRI based on publicly available information and the data of each companyrsquos homepage

Comparison of Developers Top 10 (2011~2016)Unit 100 mil RMB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 48

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In the recently announced Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017 domestic capital and Hong Kong-Singaporean companies accounted for half of the total SCPG whichrsquos the subsidiary of Vanke Real Estate has replaced Wanda group enter the Top3

Rank Company Name Company Nature Overall Rating Score Representative Commercial Project

1 China Resources Land domestic capital 897 Shenzhen MIXC

2 Hang Lung Properties Hong Kong capital 879 Plaza 66

3 CSPG domestic capital 866 Wuhan INCITY

4 Wanda Commercial Real Estate domestic capital 858 Wanda Plaza

5 Longfor Properties domestic capital 824 Chongqing North Street

6 Capitaland Singapore captial 823 Raffles City Shanghai Plaza

7 SHK Properties Hong Kong capital 817 ICC Shanghai

8 Swire Properties Hong Kong capital 815 Chengdu TaiKoo Hui

9 Joy City Properties domestic capital 809 Shanghai Joy City

10 Wharf Holdings Hong Kong capital 808 Shanghai Time Square

Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017

Note) November 2017 New perspective media announced TOP 100 enterprises in 2017China Commercial real estate Four indicators are used in the overall evaluation (full mark 100 points) as management (40 points) management (30 points) brand (20 points) and innovation (10 points)

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 49

bull The government will introduce various incentives to expand the rental housing market

The new type of residential leasing enterprises centered on large state-owned enterprises keeps pouring out

bull Real estate developers are actively involved in the construction of a small town (street) in the background of the new city

Work with other companies across industries to develop new real estate products

bull From the previous emphasis on the development of real estate developers a focus on industrial agglomeration and cultivation of operation managers

Real estate developers have diversified into other businesses as well as the rapid growth of industrial property developers who are engaged in the development and operation of industrial parks

1

2

3

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 50

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 51

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 52

Macroeconomic trends

The Korean economy is expected to continue growing at a low rate of 3

The trend and forecast of GDP and economic growth rate in Korea

SourceNRI based on IMF (201710)

GDP CAGR in 90s

67

GDP CAGR in 00s

42

Expected GDP CAGR after 2011

30

600

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

500

400

300

200

100

0200

2200

1200

0199

9199

8199

7201

5199

5199

4199

3199

2199

1199

02020(E)

2019(E)

2018(E)

2017(E)

2016(E)

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

1996

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

295296296302283279331290

650546518

392490

743

1131

957921

1035981

229368

071

283293

453

892

-547

592

760685

618

GDP (Real GDP Trillion Won) Economic Growth Rate ()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 53

Macroeconomic trends

Interest rate has declined to 1 since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 Low interest rate is expected to increase the liquidity

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Interest Rate (1998-2016)

475525

4 425375

325375

455

3

225

325275 25

215 125

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10yr Treasury Bond (average)

3yr Cooperate Bond aa- (average)

CD 91 days (average)

Call Rate (overnight average)

Base Rate

(unit )

Consistent downturn in interest ratesince 1998

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 54

Macroeconomic trends

With the implementation of a loose monetary policy for economic revitalization the amount of domestic currency is continuously increasing and market liquidity is expanding

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Trends in average balance of KRW (1998-2016)

rsquo98年以後

持続的な増加傾向

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Lf M2 M1 ハイパワードマネー

Consistently increasing trendsince 1998

(unit Trillion Won)

Note High-powered money = Currency issued + KRW deposited in financial institutions and The Bank of Korea M1 (consultation currency) Currency-in-circulation + demand deposits and savings account balance where deposit or withdrawal can be done any time - mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

M2 (Broad currency) M1 + time depositssavingsreservespayments + market-based financial instruments (CDRPAccommodation bill) + financial instruments offering dividend + bank debentures + others (investment securities and savingspromissory notes issued by financial companies) - long-term financial instruments (2 years)mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

(Liquidity of financial institutions) M1 + Savingsreservesbank debentures within M2 with maturity period of 2 years or more + deposits with Korea Securities Finance Corporation + reserves for insurance contracts with life insurance companies (including post offices) + deposits excluding those of agricultural cooperatives or country people - mutual dealings of such financial instruments between institutions covered in Lf

High-powered money

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 55

Macroeconomic trends

Valorization Policy maintains Consumer Price Index at approximately 1

Changes in Consumer Price Index(CPI) Year-on-year Ratio

(unit Year-on-Year )

271

191

250265

210

176203

384

237260

367

207

126 125

070097

328

168

280

356

306

243257

444

182

303

406

165

071084

-022

067

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CPI CPI for living necessities

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea Media Research

Note CPI is calculated on a monthly basis assuming year 2015 as 100 and covering 481 items (weighted average) for research

CPI for living necessities provides a separate summary of 142 products that are designated as daily necessities or those that are purchased frequently out of the total 481 products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 56

Macroeconomic trends

After the Lehman shock the wondollar exchange rate fell However it started to rise after 2014

WonDollar exchange rate trends

907

1411

1013

1145

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

05

01

05

06

05

11

06

04

06

09

07

02

07

07

07

12

08

05

08

10

09

03

09

08

10

01

10

06

10

11

11

04

11

09

12

02

12

07

12

12

13

05

13

10

14

03

14

08

15

01

15

06

15

11

16

04

16

09

17

02

17

07

(unit Won)

It started to increase after 2014

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Note Based on the current price of KRW USD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 57

12655 11795 33593

18656

81148 105940 98677

Current account

Macroeconomic trendsThe current account surplus is slightly lower (approximately 990 dollars) than the one last year which was recorded the highest This is because of the fall in exports and the deficit in service balance resulted from recession in construction and transportation industry

Current account trends

-70000

-20000

30000

80000

130000

180000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Balance of secondary income

Balance of primary income

Balance of services

Balance of goods

(unit million dollar)

345115

728805 622212

303672

636241

484159

Exports of Goos amp Services

Imports of Goods amp Services

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 58

Macroeconomic trendsThe rise of the rate of employment and unemployment The rise of the employment rate is attributed to increase in the middle-agedelderly workers However for job seekers in their 20s the work environment is not improving

Employment Rate and Unemployment Rate in Korea Employment Rate by Age

(unit ) (unit ten thousands people) (unit )

Improvement in employment rate

389 378 371 365 361 357 363 369 375

601 584 583 579 576 574 571 568 564

655 652 655 661 662 664 668 667 664

430 450 479 508 535 561 585 599 609

264 269 274 289 311 329 349 366 388

595

586 587591

594 595

602 603 604

50

52

54

56

58

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10s 20s 30s 40s 50s over 60 Employment rate

No of employees over 50s(372 )

590

600

593

598 597 597 598

595

586 587

591

594 595

602603 604

40

33

36 37 3735

32 32

36 37

3432 31

3536 37

00

10

20

30

40

50

57

58

59

60

61

62

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Employment rate Umemployment rate

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (KOSTAT)

Note Employment Rate=(employeepopulation over age 15)x100 Unemployment Rate=(The UnemployedEconomically Active Population)x100

Improvement in both employment

and unemployment rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 59

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 60

Office market trends

The Seoul office market is divided into three categories CBD government agencies and conglomerate headquarters YBD financial district GBD IT district

Sphere wise office market of Seoul

Seoul City hall

bull The largest office district with a long history

bull Developed since the 1960s and has a high level of infrastructure

bull The highest rental rate in Korea bull Conglomerate headquarters foreign

companies in Korea (Seoul) insurancesecurities companies government agency buildings embassies etc

bull Developed since the mid 1980sbull Lower vacancy rate than the other

districts due to low new supplybull Rent rate in between two other

districtsbull ITconglomerates and foreign

companies

CBD(Central Business District)

GBD(Gangnam Business District)

bull Developed since the late 1980sbull Rent is lower than CBD and GBDbull Headquarters of financial

institutions such as banks and securities

YBD(Yeouido Business District)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 61

Office market trends

Regarding the domestic office market the supply of new offices increased mainly in CBD and YBD after 2010 After 2014 the supply of new offices mainly increased in GBD

Trends in new supply of offices in Seoul

CBD Central(1970 to 1986)

GBD Central(1987 to 2009)

(unit 万)

CBD(2010

to 2011)

YBD(2012 to

2013)

GBD(2014

onwards)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

70 72 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 62

Office market trends

The vacancy rate of new prime offices in Seoul was 8 and the rental rate reduced to 87K KRW33m2Month

Vacancy rate of prime offices in Seoul Rental rate of prime offices in Seoul

(unit KRW33Month)

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 63

Office market trends

The number of major office transactions in Seoul was 72 and it is rapidly increasing with the total sale price

Number of Seoul office sales and total sale prices

(unit Trillion KRW)(Unit sale)

Note Offices with total floor area of 3300m2 or more only are covered

25

35

57

4241

52 26

39 38

53

48

57 58 59

51

46

72

17 19 26

22

28 26

12

41 42 48 46

55 56 60

70

36

88

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Total Sale Price

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 64

Office market trends

The office sale price was about 48 Millionm2 and the cap rate was 53

Sales volume and pricem2 by office district in Seoul

2488 2818

3658 4034

3513 3760

4103 4284 4297

4632 4787 4829

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Averaged Sale Pricem2

(Unit Ten thousands ) (Unit Thousand KRW)

79

73

67

62 6366

68

60

54

59

48

53

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 65

Office market trends

In 2015 the averaged volume of office sales was 19000m2 and the averaged sale price per 33m2 was about 16M KRW

Sale price per volume by office district in Seoul (2016 property transaction)

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Note This analysis covers 43 offices with transactions concluded mainly in CBD GBD and YBD in 2016Transactions for the completion of construction in 2016 IFC individual transactions etc 7 cases are excluded

(Price ten thousands KRW33m2) (unit ten thousands KRW33m2)

Volume(m2)

CBD GBD YBD

1500

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1000

500

9000060000300002000010000 250000 1500050000

35000

National Health Insurance Corporation

Teheran building

Capital TowerCosmos building

Daewoo Shipbuilding amp Marine Engineering Building

Center point opticalization

Samsung Lifes Head Office

International building

Jong-Ro Tower

Average transaction cost1791(10K KRW 33)

Average transaction area19474 ()

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

00

1955 Million KRW

2005 Million KRW

1328 Million KRW

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 66

Office market trends

The office market Cap rate in 2015 was about 5 and Spread of government bonds was 4

Trends of Seoul office cap rate and T-bill

Source NRI based on Media Research

41 42 32

48 34

25 21 09 04

15 22 18 27 23 27 26 31

7869 66

51 47 50

52 54 56 52 48 42

35 33 32 23 22

119 111

98 98

8275 73

62 6067 70

60 6156 59

49 53

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

스프레드 국고채 10년 Cap rate(unit )

ldquoPositioning investee companies as steady and profitable with the 3 level Spreadrdquo

Real estate market activities

Temporary market stagnation due to

financial crises

Alternate investments becoming active due to low-interest rate policy

Spread T-bill (10yr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 67

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 68

Residential market trendsThe domestic household debts have increased to 1300 Trillion KRW Among these home equity loan accounts for 40 Also the default risk is rising because of decline in real estate prices and increase in interest rates

Trends in scale of household finance

665724

776843

916 9641021

10891203

1344

293 311 338 363 392 404 418 461 491546

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

가계대출 주택대출(単位 兆ウォン)

440

430436

430 428

419409

423408 406

주택담보대출비중Unit Trillion KRW Weight of home equity loan

Household finance Housing loan

Source NRI Analysis National Statistical Office (NSO)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 69

Residential market trends

The land price index and the land transaction volume are gradually rising

Land Transaction Volume and Land Price Index1)

224 229 223207

233

204224

264

309 300

28 26 23 17 19 16 20 26 36 37

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

National

Seoul

890 887 895 905 915 924 935 953

976 1002

Land price index1)

Land transactionvolume

(unit No of lots)CAGR193

CAGR66

(Lot unit 10 thousand number of case )

Note 1) Based on Land Price Index 2016121 = 100

Source NRI based on data from Real Estate Official Statistics Network (httpwwwr-onecokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 70

Residential market trendsThe housing transaction volume was showing recovery after 2012 however with the increase in uncertainties such as the credit examination strengthening and the interest rate increase in USA it has slightly decreased

Transition of National Housing Transaction Volume

(unit no of transaction)Transaction volume of metropolitan areaaccounts for about 54 of that of nationwide

384777

385400 443923475075

517361

608424

463459

488757

543062

581909

484807

2015

1193691

611782

2014

1005173

462111

2013

851850

363093

2012

735414

271955

2011

981238

372814

2010

799864

282503

2009

870353

395278

2008

893790

449867

2007

867933

482533

2006

1082453

697676

2016

1053069

568262

Capital areaRural area

212978221683

148266111889

83257114315

88737138016147023159396

263599

Seoul

Source NRI based on data from Onnara Real Estate (httpwwwonnaragokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 71

Residential market trends

The supply of housing units increases since 2013 especially in apartments In 2016 about one million units are newly supplied

Housing supply by types of housing

544909

644512

459887 468642 504481

804019 854095

658025

727354

1085838 1055149

412891 476462

263153 297183 276989

356762 376086

278739

347687

534931 506816

106251

152042 186637

163357

219823

349661 340477

277594 274869

350463 341915

25767 16008 10097 8102 7669 13596 13532 32692 41170

105112

128450

84000 124000

69000 63628 95332

77968

-

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total Apartment Multi-unit dwelling Officetel Urban-type housing(unit no of housing supply) (unit no of house)

Source NRI based on statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation

Official statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation do not include some officetels and urban-type residences hence the gross households supplied would be different from what is mentioned in this report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 72

Residential market trends

The average Housing Price Index has been increasing since 2013 especially in Seoul and the metropolitan area

Housing Price Index (10 years) Housing Price Index (3 years)

(unit index) (unit index)

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

Note Standard of National Housing Price Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source National Statistical Office

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 73

Residential market trends

The Jeonse (House Lease) price index has consistently illustrated an upward trend in these ten years However recently the growth rate has slowed down

Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (10 years) Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (3 years)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

940

945

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

1055

1060

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Capital AreaNational Rural AreaSeoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

(unit index) (unit index)

Note Based on National House Lease Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source NRI based on Korea Appraisal Board

Jeonse refers to the way houses are leased Instead of paying monthly rent a renter will makea lump-sum deposit on a rental space at anywhere from 50 to 80 of the market value

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 74

Residential market trends

The Jeonse cost is about 68 of the Housing price The standard in the capital area being 70 it is mainly increasing in Seoul and capital area

National Jeonse Cost to Housing Price

556 563 566 572 577 586 593 584 593 606 616 622 626 631 638 646 653 661 672 678 680 680

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11

3Q

11

4Q

12

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

13

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

14

1Q

14

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

15

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

16

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

National Capital Area Seoul Rural Area

(単位 )

CAGR

National

Capital Area

Seoul

Rural Area

10

16

16

05

Source NRI data from based on The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 75

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 76

Commercial facilities market trends

The retail market scale has reached approximately 300 trillion KRW including the both online and offline especially the online business that has shown a remarkable increase

OnlineOffline Retail Market Scale (2006-2016)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores) Online market = Computer shopping mobile shopping (excluding TV home shopping and catalogue shopping)

The total sales of large marts calculated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) excludes the sales of duty free shops and includes those of complex malls and Auretto Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Korea Online Shopping Association

309

243(79)

66(21)

2015

2016

287

233(81)

54(19)

2014

273

227(83)

45(17)

2013

265

226(85)

40(15)

2012

260

225(86)

36(14)

2011

249

217(87)

32(13)

2010

224

201(90)

23(10)

2009

208

188(90)

21(10)

2008

198

179(91)

18(9)

2007

188

172(92)

16(8)

(Unit Trillion KRW ) オフラインオンライン

CAGR (2007 to 2011)

73

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

44 CAGR(2007 to 2011)

60 20

191 164

Online Offline

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 77

Commercial facilities market trends

Among the offline stores CVS has been leading in growth while the other businesses stay on slow growth

Offline Retail Market Scale (2011-2016 business type wise)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores)

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO)

233

102(44)

49(21)

29(12)

29(13)

7(3)

17(7)

2014

227

102(45)

47(21)

29(13)

29(13)

7(3)

13(6)

2013

226

103(46)

46(20)

30(13)

28(13)

7(3)

2012

12(5)

225

45(20)

2016

243

103(42)

53(22)

30(12)

30(12)

106(47)

7(3)

20(8)

2015

29(13)

28(12)

7(3)

11(5)

Department stores Speciality retail stores

HypermarketSM (excluding SSM)SSM (Corporate supermarkets)

Convenience stores

CAGR

01

82 239

13

(2012 to 2014)(2014 to 2016)

29 56

38 28

24 26

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

49

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

32

(Unit Trillion KRW )

-17 03

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 78

Commercial facilities market trends

Regarding SM market the growth rate remains in 2 range and SSM rate stays 20 range

SM market scale (2012-2016)

SSM = Lotte Super GS Retail Home Plus Everyday Retail Seowon Distribution Fishery Cooperatives and Logistics and CS Logistics standards

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Distributors Yearbook

(unit Trillion KRW )

304(80)

74(20)

2015

368

283(81)

68(19)

2012

295(80)

73(20)

2014

359

289(80)

70(20)

2013

351

2016

378

275(81)

340

65(19)

25

33

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

27

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

26

SMSSM

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 79

Commercial facilities market trends

The Online market is rapidly growing more than 10 every year and purchase channel is shifting from computer to mobile

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 procurement channel wise)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association

(Unit Trillion KRW )

2016

657

2013

397

244(45)

295(55)

317(70)

135(30)

452

2014

356(54)

301(46)

2015

539

59(15)

338(85)

2012

366

26(7)

340(93) 919

-30

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

MobilePC

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 80

Commercial facilities market trends

In looking at the business types the growth of online stores is led by the expansion of open market and social commerce

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 by business type)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association and Justice Committee Meeting

(Unit Trillion KRW )

254(56)

300(56)

328(50)215

(60)233

(59)

2016

657

98(15)

230(35)

2012

358

19(5)

124(35)

2015

539

80(15)

159(29)

2014

452

55(12)

143(32)

2013

397

34(9)

130(33)

505

167

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

OthersSocial commerceOpen market

112

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 81

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 82

Investment market trends

REITs market has expanded to 25 Trillion KRW In recent years REITs are mostly by Private Offers

Trends in scale of domestic REITs market

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

공모 사모

4 8 10 12 14 18 20 36

50 69 71

80 98

125

169

리츠수

(AUM Standards Unit Trillion KRW individuals)

06 10 14 17 33 50 4970

7682 95

117149

180

245

Funds REITsPublicOffer

PrivateOffer

Source NRI Analysis KORAMCO Korea Financial Investment Association

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 83

Investment market trends

The market has been gradually changing for the past 10 years shifting the focus from CR-REITs to externally-managed REITs

Trends in composition ratio of domestic REITs

(総資産基準 )

1000 1000 1000

637541 707

650

694 644 630527 404 367

309

208

363459

293340 300 346 337

427563 605 667

780

10 07 10 33 45 33 28 24 12

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠 위탁관리리츠 자기관리리츠Corporate

Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

Source NRI Analysis REITs Information System

(Level of total assets )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 84

Investment market trends

With the reduction of composition ratio of CR-REITs the composition ratio of listed REITs is also reduced to 14

Trends in proportion of domestic and listed REITs

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠

위탁관리리츠

자기관리리츠

778

1000937

783

588

367 329

174104 127 122 122 89 59

14

系列1(Level of total assets )

Proportion of listed REITsCorporate Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

The real estate prices were calculated keeping the index as on December 2015 as 100 and beneficiary rate was calculated based on the Housing Price Index

Source NRI Analysis Factset Bloomberg Kookmin Bank Korea Investment amp Securities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 85

Investment market trends

In looking at the each sectors the diversification of REITs assets is growing including domains such as retail logistics and hotel

44

31 3223

1622

29

46

100

50

7571

100

2861

45

3150 40

38

25

50

2529

17

8

9

8

1819

1713

6

8

56

10 99

8

7 9

5 55 5

22

4 4 1 2

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

기타

호텔

물류 공장

리테일

오피스

주택

(unit )

Others

Hotel

LogisticsFactory

Retail

Office

House

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (numbers of REITs)

Source NRI based on Korea Financial Investment Association Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport Korea Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts KORAMCO

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 86

Investment market trends

In looking at AUM basis the majority of REITsrsquo assets are still by the offices and housing

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (AUM-based)

(AUM 基準 )

05 08 12 13 23 37 36 44 49 5671 81 89 89

112

1013 12

19 1718

1723

27 29

35

00

07 09 0604

05

2449

83

0103

08

09

13

15

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

오피스 리테일 주택 기타オフィス リテール 住宅 その他

Source NRI Analysis Korea Financial Investment Association KAREIT

AUM standards Office Retail Housing Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 87

Investment market trends

The margin ratio of REITs is 6 range having less fluctuations than the other financial instruments

REITs dividend yield ratio

(単位 )

85 66 84122 119

404

280 261

86 83 71 92 62 81 66

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

국고채 10년 기준금리 리츠수익률 코스피수익률(YoY)

Source NRI Analysis

T-Bill (10yr) Base rate REITs margin ratio

KOSPIMargin ratio

(YoY)Unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 88

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 89

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 90

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The area of the dominated territory of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is equals to that of Kyushu and with 23 million

90

Country name Republic of China (Founded Oct 10 1912)(The relocation of the Chinese Nationalist Party to Taiwan was in 1949)

Era name Minguo (2017 AD= Minguo 106)

Capital Taipei City (Population 269 million)

Major cities Shinipei City (Population 398 million) Taoyuang City (217 million) Taichung City (278 million) Tainan City (189 million) Kaohsiung City (278 million)

Area Approx 36197 km2 (2016 A bit little smaller than Kyushu Japan)

Population Approx 2355million (as of Jul 2017)

Ethnic Composition Han Race 98 Aboriginal 2

Currency New Taiwan dollar (NTD) 1 NTD=Approx 366 yen (As of Jul 2017)

Nominal GDP USD 5299 billion (2016)

Nominal GDP per capita USD 22540 (2016)

No of Japanese residents 21887 (as of Oct 2016)

Number of Japanese companies Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Taipei member firms 466 (Mar 2017)

Number of travelers between Japan

From Japan to Taiwan from Japan 190 million (2016)From Taiwan to Japan from Taiwan 430million (2016)

Overview of Taiwan

Matsu Kinmen Region

Penghu Islands

CapitalTaipei

TaichungCity

Kaohsiung City

Tainan City

ShinpeiCity

TaoyuangCity

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 91

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population of childbearing age has reached the apex The total population is predicted to decrease after 2020 and thus the issue of population decline has emerged

Population has been expected to reach the peak in around 2025 and after that population in Taiwan may decease gradually

Population in Taiwan by age-group

Popu

latio

n (th

ousa

nd))

Source NRI based on the CEPD Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

5739 5716 5525 5076 4703 4259 3624 3188 3062 3038 2851

11361 12621 13607 14650 15652 16295 17050 17366 16847 15998 15161

766 977

1269 1631

1921 2217 2488 2939 3788 4698 5574

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-64 Ages 65 or overlarrActual Forecastrarr

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 92

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population density in Taiwan is approximately twice as that in Japan

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in population distribution

Land area

36197

377972

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2016)

(kmsup2)

Total population

24

127

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

Population density

651

335

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

x 19

(百万人) (人 kmsup2)

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 93

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

GDP per capita of Taiwan is about 67 of that of Japan and income level is 83

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in the scale of economy

Exchange rate (Date Dec 2015)1USD = 11605 YEN1USD = 32171 NTD

GDP

5299

49386

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(億ドル)

GDP Per capita

22540

38917

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

Household income

38960

47031

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(ドル) (ドル)

X 083

X 058

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 94

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Taiwanrsquos economy showed negative growth during IT bubble of 2001 and the financial crisis after Lehman Shock of 2009 but it quickly returned to stable growth trend

Since 2010 European debt crisis has worsened the global economy In the meanwhile US Domestic manufacturing has growth and the Chinas ldquoRed Supply Chainrdquo has risen Accordingly Taiwanrsquos export decreased which causes decline in GDP growth rate

Taiwanrsquos GDP growth rate slightly declined at the level of around 15 while is expected to increase 122

GDP growth rate in Taiwan

-165

526

367

619

470 562

652

070

-157

1063

380

206 22

402

072148

211 227

-5

0

5

10

15

()

(y)

Forecast

Source NRI based on the DGBAS Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 95

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The cross-strait relationship has improved greatly since 2008 While after 2016 the interaction between these two countries may reduce

History of Cross-strait relationshipMay 2008 Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party becomes the 12th President of Taiwan

Jul Chinese tourists to Taiwan was deregulated (Group tour)Dec The Three Links (Liberalization in commerce transportation and postal service) is implementedDec Cross-Strait Conference on the Cooperation and Exchange of the Chinese Medicine Industry which is the project representing the cross-

strait industrial bridge was held in Taipei

Apr 2009 The third summit meeting of cross-strait contact points was held A memorandum on cross-strait financial cooperation (concerning banks securities and insurances) was signed and chartered flights were decided to be increased and become scheduled

Jul Chinese investment into Taiwan was deregulated (63 kinds in manufacturing 24 in service and 11 in public works was released to be invested by Chinese)

Nov Cross-Strait financial MOU was signed (Put into effect in January 2010)

Jun 2010 The Fifth ChenndashChiang summit was held Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was signed and 267 Chinarsquos products and 539 Taiwanrsquos products are listed in the tariff concessions

Jan 2011 Started waiving import tariffs (so-called Early Harvest list)

Nov Both sides agreed on industry cooperation in following segments (LED Municipal Wireless Cold Chain Logistics TFT-LCD EV)

Aug 2012 The customs authorities of Taiwan and China signed a Cross-Strait Customs Cooperation Agreement regarding customs service smuggling crackdown and tariff reduction

Aug Both sides reached a consensus to promote a mechanism of transparency information loosing investment limitations to promote prosperity

Jun 2013 The Cross-Strait Agreement in Trade in Services based on WTO framework is signed It proposes opening up over 100 services sectors in phases

Mar 2014 Taiwans ruling Kuomintang party attempted a unilateral move in the Legislative Yuan to force the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement to the legislative floor without giving it a clause-by-clause review Such an action occurred An Anti-Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement demonstration on the next day

April Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng visited the occupied parliament chamber and promised to postpone review of the trade pact until legislation monitoring all cross-strait agreements has been passed

May 2016 Since 20th May 2016 Ing-wen Tsai has begun her presidency and claimed that the relationship between Taiwan and China in the next four years will remain steady

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 96

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Although the current Taiwan-China relation is not as warm as before the number of flight between these countries is higher than between Hong Kong and China

No of Destinations in China 2017 No of flights to China 2017

1178

1312

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

HK

Taiwan

47

71

46

55

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

HK

Taiwan

No of destinations between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

No of flights between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

Unit FlightsweekUnit Destinations

Source NRI based on the Civil Aeronautics Administration of the MOTC ROC(Taiwan) and Airport Authority Hong Kong

The estimation is based on the public release the of Civil Aviation Administration of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 97

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 98

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

Following 8 areas compose major office districts in Taipei City

Major office areas in Taipei City

Hsin YiWorld Trade Centerbull Redeveloped under the Hsin Yi Development Plan Area with the

highest office rent level in Taipeibull Highly convenient due to the large concentration of administrative

financial trade exhibitory leisure and residential functionsbull Offices of global companies such as IBM and Microsoft located

Neihu Science Park districtbull The area Government aims to develop as a

science park districtbull Holding a large concentration of IT industry

headquartersbull Its traffic convenience has improved due to the

extension of MRT

Dun Hua NMinshengbull Having the second largest concentration of

luxury offices (Hsin Yi area is the largest) and being home to many financial service industries

bull Traffic convenience significantly improved after the SongShan airport became an international airport

Dunnanbull Holding a large number of well-known companies and foreign firmsbull Holding many financial companies as well as many traditional

industriesbull With its traffic convenience having developed to be a complex of

residential and commercial area

Songjiang Nanjingbull Area with the highest office density in Taipeibull Holding a large number of offices of Japanese

firms as well as traditional industries financial services and travel industries

Taipei station areabull Area centering Taipei station where the lines of

Taiwan Railways MRT and the High Speed Rail intersect

bull The first area in Taipei City where offices were developed with a large concentration of financial insurance industries and government institutions

Taipei station

area

Hsin YiWorld Trade

Center

Zhong Shan Northbull A large concentration of offices commercial

facilities and hotelsbull Many offices of Japanese firms are also

located

Taipei SongShanAirport

Nanjing Fuxingbull A class offices are concentrated in this area

providing comprehensive commercial financial services

bull The opening of MRT Songshan-Xindian Line in 2014 has made making journeys even more convenient

Zhon

gSh

an N

orth

Song

jiang

Nan

jing

Dun

Hua

M

ings

heng

Dun

nan

NeihuScience

Park district

Fusi

ng N

anjin

g

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 99

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

A number of great office buildings were completed in 2014 in Zhong Shan and Nan Gang district and thus more than 40000 tsubo of office spaces were provided In the meanwhile the office demand in Taipei grow Consequently there is a downward trend in the vacancy rate of office buildings which was below 7 in Q4 2016

By the end of 2017 lsquoTaipei Nan Shan Plazarsquo around Taipei 101World Trade Center Station and the headquarter of Taiwan Cooperative Bank around Nanjing Fuxing Station will be completed and thus 70000 tsubo of new office spaces will be available As a result the vacancy rate of office buildings may remain high

Office vacancy rate rose to more than 9 in 2015

Supply of new offices and vacancy rates in Taipei City

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16New supply (left axis) Vacancy Rate (right axis)Completion of Taipei 101

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Completion of FargloryFinancial Center

The headquarter buildings of Taiwan Cooperative Bank and China Trust were completed

Area

of n

ew s

uppl

y (P

ing)

Vaca

ncy

rate

()

Source NRI based on the Taiwan real estate yearbookNote The bar chart indicates the total area of annual new supply

New office buildings under

construction

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 100

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The average A-class office rental prices of CBD in Taipei is NTD2385 per tsuboper month (around yen8603 per tsubo per month)

Overview of major office areas (Q2 2017)

District Supply floor space (Tsubo)

A-class office Vacancy rate

()

B-class office Vacancy rate

()

A-class office avg rent

(NTDTsubomonth)

B-class office avg rent

(NTD Tsubo month)

Taipei station district 60310 55 15 2200 1706

Chung Shan North district 32932 -- 47 -- 1747

Songjiang Nanjing district 260955 182 84 1995 1762

Minsheng Dun Hua N district 262776 90 55 2277 1755

Dun HuaJen-Ai district 175763 70 42 2450 1787

Xinyi district 311328 102 31 3001 1721

Average rent 2385 NTDTsubomonth

Source NRI based on CBRE data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 101

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The number of office construction license issuance decreased significantly in the first half year of 2016 Accordingly the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

The number of construction license issuance has reduced since 2014 and thus the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

Source NRI based on statistics by the CPAMI ROC(Taiwan)

Number of office construction license issuance and total floor space licensed for construction in Taipei City

444080

926739

544258

207831

314769

461971 438809 416413 394913

1123336

556589

364330

273704

542545

408558 416577

116354 -

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Floor area squares (right asix)

License amount(left axis)

Jan-Jul

No

of c

onst

ruct

ion

licen

se is

sued

Tota

l hou

ses

spac

e of

con

stru

ctio

n lic

ense

issu

ed (m

2 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 102

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The existing offices in Taipei metropolitan are mainly located in central Taipei The outer metropolitan region such as Zin-Ban Fuchung Area and Nankang Area have been regenerated in the

recent years Accordingly the number of new office buildings has increased in these areas

Three new CBDs around central Taipei have been developed recently and thus the supply of commercial buildings is predicted to increase

TaipeiMain Sta

XimenArea

DunpeiAreaNanjing E

Rd Area

XinyiArea

NankangArea

Zin-BanFuchung

AreaFar EsternMemorialHospital

Area

Taipei City

DunnanArea

Existing Office Area

New Office Area

Zin-Ban Fuchung Areabull Rent 1300NTDTsubobull Zin-Ban Special Zone is located around

Banqiao station which is a terminal station of TRA MRT Taiwan-HSR

bull The highest office in Shinipei City ldquoFar Eastern Buildingrdquo(50F) has been opened in Jul 2013

MRT Far Estern Memorial Hospital Areabull Rent1200 NTDTsubobull New area of office with almost bran-

new officebull The most famous office of this area

is T-park built by FEG Group

Nankang Areabull Rent1200 -1300 NTDTsubobull This Area is expected as a new CBD of

Taipei because of being a terminal station of TSHR and 2 lines of MRT

bull Numerous offices have been and will be constructed in this area

Shinpei City

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 103

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 104

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

Since Taoyuan has been designated as a special municipality the population of it growth dramatically The Taipei Metropolis is reshaped where 40 of total population live in it

The location and population (2015) of Taipei City Keelung City and Shinpei City

Taipei CityPopulation 269 million

Keelung City Prpulation 037 million

Shinpei City Population 397 million

Taoyuang City Population 217 million

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 105

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a significant population growth in West Taipei Metropolitan area especially in West Shinipei City

Population Changes in Taipei City and Shinipei City over the last 5 years (2011-2015)

Shinpei City

TaoyuanCity

Keelung City

Greater Taipei Area

Taipei CityNew-Town regionDanshui

Linkou

Sanxia

MRT development

region

LegendAvg annual growth rate

-2 le CAGR lt -1-1 le CAGR lt 00 le CAGR lt 11 le CAGR lt 22 le CAGR lt 3

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 106

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The population of East and West Shinipei City and the central Taoyuan City has increased greatly which lead to soaring property prices in these areas

CAGR of the Land Price of Residential District in Taipei Metropolitan over the last 5 years (2013~2017)

Legend

0 le CAGR lt 2

2 le CAGR lt 4

4 le CAGR lt 6

6 le CAGR lt 8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 107

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The construction of MRT is one of the causes of the accelerating urban sprawl

MRT construction status around Taipei Metropolitan Area

【Distance from Taipei City 10km】

【Distance from Taipei City 5km】Wugu

Taishan

Xinzhuang

Luzhou

Banqiao

Zhonghe

Xindian

Muzha

Nangang

Neihu

Xizhi

Danshui

Beitou

Dazhi

Sanchong

Danshui

Xin-beitou

Luzhou

New Taipei Industrial Park

YongningDingpu

Fu Jen UnivHuilong

Sanchong

Nanshijiao

Jingan

GutingCKS Memorial Hall

Zimen

MinquanW Rd

Taipei Main

Station

Taipei Zoo

Songshan

Taipei NangangExhibition Center

SongshanAirport

Dapinglin

Xiaobitan

Xindian

To TaoyuanAirport

Banqiao

Elephant Mt

ZhongxiaoXinsheng

Shulin

Line Section Year opened

Neihu-Muzha Line

Zhongshan Junior High School hArr Taipei Zoo Mar 1996

Zhongshan Junior High School hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Jul 2009

Danshui Line Danshui hArr Taipei Main Station Mar 1997

Zhonghe Line Guting hArr Nanshijiao Dec 1998

Xindian Lian Taipei Main Station hArr Xindian Nov 1999

Nangang-Banqiao Line

Longshan Temple hArr Taipei City Hall Aug 1999

Longshan Temple hArr Xinpu Aug 2000

Taipei City Hall hArr Kunyang Dec 2000

Xinpu hArr Yongning May 2006

Kunyang hArr Nangang Dec 2008

Yongning hArr Dingpu Dec 2014

Nangang hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Feb 2011

Luzhou Line Luzhou hArr Zhongxiao Xinsheng Nov 2010

XinzhuangLine

Fu Jen Univ hArr Daqiaotou Jan 2012

Zhongxiao Xinsheng hArr Guting Sep 2012

Huilong hArr Fu Jen Univ Mar 2013

Xinyi Line CKS Memorial HallhArr Elephant Mt Dec 2013

Songshan Line Songshan hArr Ximen Nov 2014

TaoyuanAirport MRT Taipei Main Station hArr Jhongli Mar 2017

Circular Line New Taipei Industrial Park hArr Dapinglin Jun 2018

Wanta Line CKS memorial hall hArr Huilong Dec 2020

Source)NRI based on the MRT Construction Dep Of Taipei City Gov

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 108

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The price of new properties in the centre of Taipei is over 1 million per tsubo And luxury real estate price in Xinyi District even reaches 3 million per tsubo

47-58

24-36

40-56

75-105

60-83

42-65

34-4838-52

43-52

90-13064-8230-40

40-6075-105

74-95

75-106

125-290

34-45

26-40

45-62

48-63

72-107

85-150120-166

113-145

48-75

87-130

45-60

125-285

88-140

72-125

85-140

46-5660-80

88-12550-65

42-63

55-78

Unit housing prices at major areas near MRT station in Taipei City and Shinipei City (Unit10000 NTD Tsubo)

Source NRI based on My Housingcom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 109

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The property price had increased steady since 2003 and reached the apex in 2013 And after that the housing price drops

Transition of housing price index

Source NRI based on Cathay Real Estatersquos Housing Index quarterly report

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Taipei City

Shinpei City

Taoyuang amp Hsinchu Region

Hou

sing

pric

e in

dex Financial Crisis

2011 Practice of Specifically Selected Goods and Services Tax Act2012 Practice of Registering the Actual Transaction Price of Real Estate2016 Practice of Consolidated Housing and Land Taxes

Note2010=100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prices of 2017 Q2Taipei City 8199 thsdTsuboShinpei City 3459 thsd TsuboTaoyuang City 2137 thsd Tsubo

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 110

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a downward trend in the number of issued housing construction license of Taipei Shinipei and Taoyuan City and thus the growth rate of new buildings are expected lower than before

While several mega infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the MRT system will be delivered in Shinipei and TaoyuanCity soon and besides Urban Regeneration Act will be modified to make the regeneration process more efficient Therefore housing supply is expected to grow in the long-term

There has been a downward trend in the number of construction license issuance recently in major cities of North Taiwan

The Number of housing construction license issuance

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Taipei City Shinpei City Taoyuang City

(No) (No)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Case No

Householde No

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

NoteThe statistic number of year 2017 only involve that from Jan to Jul

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 111

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The level of the average rental price is extremely low in Taipei City and Shinipei City and cap rates of residential buildings in these two cities ranges between 2 and 35

Cap rates of properties in Taipei City and Shinpei City

Location

Taipei City Shinpei City

Zhongshan Dist(Near MRT Shuanglian Sta)

Neihu Dist(Near MRT Songshan Sta)

Xinyi Dist(Near MRT Taipei 101 World

Trade Center Sta)

Banqiao Dist(Near MRT Baqiao Sta)

Layout 2LDK 2LDK 2LK 2LDK

Area(tsubo) 21 28 25 26

Age(year) 17 11 3 8

Rent(NTDYear) 29 thousand 32 thousand 87 thousand 41 thousand

Price(NTD) 1237 million 1509 million 2580 million 1672 million

Cap rate () 234 212 195 245

Source NRI based on interviews with owners material by 591com etc

Residential building indicate the properties that above 11 floor and have the elevator

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 112

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 113

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

International tourists visiting the Taiwan are composed of 50 Japanese and Chinese Recently the government has planned to attract more tourists from southeast Asia which is regarded as the third

biggest market after Japan and China

The tourist reduces caused by the relationship between two counties to be at a standstill While Taiwan Government is planning to attract tourists from Southeast Asia

The number of foreign tourists to Taiwan (By place of residence)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mainland

Japan

Hong Kong

Southeast Asia

Others Deregulation of group toursof mainland Chinese

Deregulation of individual toursof mainland Chinese

Japan190 million

5058

South-East Asia165 million

28312978

2248

29503378 3520

37163845

4395

5567

6087

7056

8016

9910

2624

10439

10690

Mainland351 million

Hong Kong161 million

Fore

ign

tour

ists

am

ount

(tho

usan

d pe

rson

)

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 114

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of hotel rooms has been increased since 2010 and the number of that reaches 11 thousand and the occupancy rate of accommodation remain high which exceeds 70

The number of guest rooms and occupancy rates of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Note Tourist hotels are hotels that meet the criteria set by the Tourism Bureau of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications and are broken down into international tourist hotels and general tourist hotels according to their levels There are 27 international tourist hotels and 17 standard tourist hotels in Taipei at the end of December 2016

9202 8879 8324 8013 7786 7738 7898 8323 8313 8313 8403 8834 8834

1306 12631263 1263 1383 1357

19742040 2040 2275 2330

2386 2386

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

InternationalTourist Hotels

StandardTourist Hotels

+85+50 -01 +23 +14

0

No

of g

uest

room

7202 7668 7694 7239 6931 7382 7566 7933 7869 8043 7867Std Tourist Hotels

OccupancyRate

6930 7495 7532 7216 7114 7564 7540 7772 7590 7742 7495Intrsquol Tourist Hotels

7722

7696

7689

7111

+45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 115

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of tourists visiting Taipei increases and the hotel prices rise accordingly

The average price of guest rooms of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Aver

age

pric

e of

gue

st ro

oms

(NTD

per

nig

ht)

34113565

38014015 4050

37073848

41074394

4713 4831 4811 4761

1848 1893 1986 2013 2039 21502370

26722931

3133

34723671 3703

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

International tourist hotelStandard tourist hotel

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 116

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 117

(Reference)

Regional Map of Singapore

Core Central Region and Rest of Central Region

NORTH WEST

SOUTHWEST CENTRAL

SINGAPORE

NORTH EAST SOUTH

EAST

Woodlands North Business Park

International Business Park(Jurong Area)

Jurong Island

Changi Business ParkChangi Air HubBedok

Tampines

OrchardSomerse

The MainCommercial AreaIndustrial Park

BugisJurong EastJurong West

DowntownMarina Bay

Core Central Region is postal districts 9 10 11Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa(BlueYellow and Pink)Rest of Central Region is the area within red line except Core Central RegionOutside Central Region is outside the red line of the area

SourceURA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 118

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 119

Population Trend

Population growth for non-residents and permanent residents began to grow rapidly from 1990s while the growth of the citizen base is largely attributed to permanent residents taking up citizenship in Singapore

Singaporersquos open immigration policy has allowed population to increase very rapidly but growth is expected to be moderate with tightening of immigration policy

Population in Singapore (lsquo000)

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics Board amp UN Population Data

Forecast rarrlarrActual

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-Residents

PR

Citizens

Total

A balanced moderate immigration policy is assumed for estimation of population growth from 2016-2050Non Residents includes population residing in Singapore for long-term but do not hold PR or Citizenship (eg EP Worker Pass etc)

CAGR(1970-2015)

99

39

17

28

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 120

Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP

Singapore has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world and far surpasses neighboring countries in the region

GDP per capita is also expected to continue growing from 2017-2020

Source NRI based on IMF

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Nominal GDP per Capita (USD)

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 121

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

Despite the strong GDP per capita figures Singaporersquos growth rate remains volatile due to the nature of its open economy

Effects of business cycles exerts a more pronounced effect on GDP growth rate as the Singapore economy is closely linked to the global trade cycle

Source NRI based on IMF data

Real GDP growth rate of major economies ()

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SingaporeThailand

MalaysiaIndonesia

Dot-com Bubble Burst

Global Financial

Crisis

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Actual Standard Deviation

(2000-2016)

09242542

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 122

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

This is not surprising given that net exports of goods amp services constitute more than one quarter of the Singaporersquos economy

Both domestic amp external consumption (net exports of goods amp services) are volatile and could potentially exhibit relatively large swings in periods of economic growth and recession

Source NRI based Singapore Statistics Board

Share of GDP by Expenditure ()

23 26 27 24 22 25 26 26

2926 26 27 28 27 26 25

10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11

37 36 36 37 37 37 37 37

2011

2 20 3 3

2009 2010 2012

2

2016

345169 376826322361 358517 406242390185 408686

1 0

281090

20142013 2015Net Exports Of Goods And Services

Changes In InventoriesPrivate Consumption ExpenditureGovernment Consumption Expenditure

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 123

Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate stayed in the negative range in 2015 -2016 period as a result of declining oil prices etc but expected to recover in 2017

Inflation rate is expected to stay rise between 05 - 15 in 2017 based on forecasts by economists from various investment banks This will be due to a rise in energy costs as well as fading of the temporary disinflationary effects of budgetary measures

Source NRI based on IMF data

Annual y-o-y change in Singaporersquos CPI ()

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 124

Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate

The SGD has generally been on an appreciating trend being adjusted and watched very closely by the central bank as a tool to keep prices stable

The Singapore Dollar does not exhibit much volatility as it operates under a managed float system within an undisclosed band pegged to an undisclosed basket of currencies

Source NRI based Monetary Authority of Singapore

S$ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER)

Appreciation

Depreciation

S$NEER reflects exchange rates against a basket of currencies instead of any single currencyIndex Jan 1999 = 100

05

055

06

065

07

075

08

085

98

103

108

113

118

123

128

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD

SG

D

S$N

EER

IND

EX

USDSGD

S$NEER

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 125

Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance

In spite of the relatively high level of government debt Singapore continues to be a net creditor country with AAA ratings from international credit rating agencies

Borrowings by the Singapore are matched by even higher levels of assets and the country does not run any fiscal deficits

The government is instead borrowing in order to issue debt securities which are required in the domestic bond market to provide a risk-free benchmark against other corporate debt securities

Ratio of Government Debt to GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Source NRI based on IMF data

Ratio of Government Primary Net LendingBorrowing to GDP ()

Forecast rarrlarrActual

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2017 2019 20212015 20182012 201620142009 2011 20202013

Singapore

IndonesiaMalaysia

Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 126

Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks

Consistently ranked among the top 10 countries with the lowest public perception of corruption political risks in Singapore remains low

Low political risks is one of the factors in Singapore that have contributed to a conducive environment for business amp investment

Source NRI based on Transparency International Data

Trend of Transparency International Corruption Perception Index among selected ASEAN Countries (2016)

Top 10 countries of International Corruption Perception Index(Higher ranking indicates lower risk)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

A lower score indicates greater negative perception of public sector corruption

RANK 2014 2015 2016

1 DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK

2 NEW ZEALAND FINLAND NEW ZEALAND

3 FINLAND SWEDEN FINLAND

4 NORWAY NEW ZEALAND SWEDEN

5 SWITZERLAND NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND

6 SINGAPORE NORWAY NORWAY

7 NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND SINGAPORE

8 INDONESIA SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS

9 LUXEMBORG CANADA CANADA

10 CANADA GERMANY GERMANY

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 127

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 128

Office market- Geographic Area

76 of the existing office is located at CBD area Singapore government extends the Central Business District towards Marina Bay to support the demand of quality office spaces

Major Office Area in Singapore Central Business District

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority Master Plan Mapletree Commercial Trust

Site area (ha)

Total DevelopmentGFA (mil sqm)

Total Office GFA (mil sqm)

31 177 11

85 415 282 (estimated)

24 16 11 (estimated)

Raffles Place

Extension of existing financial district

Recent developments

Office Area in Singapore2015

CBD Core sub-market

50

Fridge CBD26

Decentralised sub-market

24

bull Existing central business district is located at Raffles Place Shenton Way and Tanjong Pagar

bull To position Singapore as one of the leading financial hub government plans to double the size of the existing financial center by extending towards Marina Bay

bull Recent developments is expected to provide more than 11 million sqm of premium office space upon completion

CBD Core sub-market Raffles Place Shenton Way Marina Centre Marina BayFringe CBD Tanjong Pagar Beach Road City Hall Orchard RoadDecentralized sub-market Alexandra HarbourFront Thomson Novena Tampines River Valley

Raffles Place

Shenton Way

TanjongPagar

Marina Bay

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 129

Office market- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate decreased gradually from 2015Q2 to 2016Q2 It has started to increase since 2016Q3 when major office developments were completed

Office Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

7456 7455

7408

7553 7575 7583

7580

7559 7536

7563

7664 7730

7761

7837

10 96

84

102 10298

9695 92 91

104111

116124

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7250

7350

7450

7550

7650

7750

7850

7950

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

rsquo000 sq m nett

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 130

Office market- Price and Rental Index

Office rent has been in downwards trend since 1Q15 due to significant increase in supply in 4Q14 The capital value of office space stagnates due to the downward pressure of the declining rental

Price and Rental Index of Office Space in Central Region

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Price Index Rental Index

Index

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Note 1) The price indices are compiled from information in caveats (A legal document lodged by a purchaser to protect

her his interests after an option to purchased is exercised or a Sales amp Purchase Agreement is signed) lodged at the option stage with the Singapore Land Registry The price in 4Q98 are used as the base reference price of the index

2) Rental Index of office space are obtained from Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS)

bull The Singapore office rental market performed well in 2014 due to tight market conditions However office rental growth has been subdued since the first quarter of 2015

bull Price of office property had been stagnant since the first quarter of 2015 and eventually fall due to underperforming rental market and increasing supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 131

Office market- Future Supply

A sharp rise in office space supply is expected to outstrip the growth in demand in the coming years The pressure on vacancy rate is expected to rise

Pipeline Supply of Office Space in Singapore

367

185

20

138

36 400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 gt2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Property Total Office GFA (lsquo000 sqf)

Expected year of completion

Vision Exchange 475 January 2017

Oxley Tower 130 January 2017

UIC Building 276 April 2017

Marina One 1800 April 2017

Frasers Tower 690 April 2018

Robinson Tower 195 April 2018

Paya Lebar Quarter 8835 December 2018

Central Boulevard 1000 Q2 2020

Golden Shoe Car Park 1000 Q1 2021

Source Corporate Locations

bull Out of the office supply from 2015 Q2 to 2018 Q4 528 is located in the Core CBD 311 in the Fridge CBD and the remaining in the Decentralized sub-markets

bull Around one-fifth of the future supply is sold on a strata-titled basis it means more investment opportunity for investors that are looking for smaller and more affordable individual unit of office space

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 132

Office market- Cap rate

Cap rate of office in CBD area in 2016 is around 38 in average

2016 Capitalization Rate of Office in CBD

3938 39 42 39

3838 38 38 38

00

10

20

30

40

50

Cap rate ()

Source CapitaLand Commercial Trust 2016 annual report Keppel REIT 2016 annual report

REIT Asset Type InvestmentProperties

CapitalandCommercial Trust

bull Office (70)bull Retail (18)bull Hotel and

Convention Centre (12)

By gross rental income

bull Capital Towerbull Six Battery Roadbull One George Streetbull Raffles City Towerbull CapitaGreenbull Twenty Ansonbull HSBC Building

Keppel REIT bull Office bull Ocean Financial Centre

bull Marina Bay Financal Centre

bull One Raffles Quaybull Bugis Junction

Towers

Office REIT in Singapore

bull Capitaland Commercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust Suntec REIT OUE Commercial REIT are the major office REIT in Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 133

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 134

Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling

CAGR of condominiums market is much higher than that of HDB Foreigners cannot purchase of HDB according to Residential Property Act imposing restrictions on foreigners in

1973

More households stay in condominiums and other apartments over the years while the percentage of households living in HDB flats is slowly going down in the last 5 years

9359 9437 9484 9395 9618 9652 9811 10115

1178 1320 1269 1399 1437 1618 1708 1824

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HDB Condominiums amp Other Apartments

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics

Number of Households by Type of Dwelling in Singapore

(lsquo000)

HDBHousing amp Development Board public housing in Singapore

CAGR 562

CAGR 098

Condominiums

HDB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 135

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Around 50 of transactions for units outside Central Region dropped from 2012 to 2014 Several property cooling measures such as introducing 60 cap from 80 on the Total Debt Serving Ratio (DSR)

and 30 cap on the Mortgage Servicing Ratio(MSR) in 2013 badly affected the number of sales transactions

Dramatically dropped the demand for Private Residential Units since 2013 due to property cooling measures

(units)

Source NRI based on URA

Number of Sales transactions for Private Residential Units by area

4832 5028 3695 1976 1859

8943 90976861

4058 3828

1886523748

12163

6813 8430

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Core Central Region Rest Central Region Outside Central Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 136

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Minimum Cash Down Payment is getting higher from 10 to 25 when you purchase the 2nd and subsequent Residential property

Foreigners have an obligation to pay 15 ABSD of sales price of residential

Drastic drop of transactions of Private Residential is due to strict restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013 in addition to introduction of higher cap on DSR and MSR

1st Housing 2nd Housing 3rd Housing

LTV Limit 80 or 60 60 or 40rArr50 or 30

60 or 40rArr40 or 20

Minimum Cash Down Payment 5 (for LTV of 80) 10 (for LTV of 60) 10rArr25 10rArr25

BSD1 on first $1800002 on next $1800003 for the remainder

ABSD(Singapore Citizens) Not applicable Not applicable rArr7 3rArr10

ABSD(Foreigners) 10rArr15

LTV Loan to Value BSDhellipBuyerrsquos Stamp DutyABSDhellipAdditional Buyerrsquos Stamp DutyIf the loan tenure is more than 30 years or extends past age 65

Change of Governmental Restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013

Source NRI based on IRAS and MAS

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 137

Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate

From 2013 to 2014 vacant rate got dramatically high compared to the change from 2011 to 2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Occupied Vacant

5061

53

7989 86

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Current Stock and Vacancy of Private Residential Units (Including Executive Condominium)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 138

Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property

Sales Price Index has gradually dropped in 2013 due to higher vacancy rate over the years

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4

Sales Index of Private Residential

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 139

Residential market ndashFuture Supply

The rise in Private Residential Unites can be seen in the next years The number of new Private Residential units seems to decrease at Core Central Region

The supply for Outside Central Region is expected to be the largest for the next 5 years

1850

3578

727 661480

3862

3820

3233 3591

514

4550

7180

54963137

4099

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Core Central Region Rest of Central Region Outside Central Region

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Supply in the Pipeline of Private Residential Units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 140

Residential market-Cap Rate

Capitalization rate has been dropping due to the higher vacancy rate

29 29

24

28

24 2321 21

27 2724

2826

2422 22

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

()

Claymore HillAdmore Park(Upper Class) River Valley(Middle Class)

Capitalization Rate for Upper class and Middle class

Source NRI based on Japan Association of Real Estate Appraisers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 141

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 142

Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate

Vacancy Rate is getting higher which causes gradual increase of availability of floor space after Q1 of 2015

56335698

57175766

58185914

59485973

59495971

5990

6019

60366046

6017

603553

45

58 5965

58

6872 70 72 73

7884

75 77 81

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5400

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

20133Q

20134Q

20141Q

20142Q

20143Q

20144Q

20151Q

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Available Floor Space Vacancy Rate

Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate of Retail

(000 sq m)

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 143

Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space

Those prices were stable until 2014 but due to slowdown of demand for retail space vacancy rate is increasing and affects both of these index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space is going down affected by the higher vacancy rate in every quarter in 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Price Index Rental Index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space in Central Region

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 144

Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore

Thanks to internet accessibility high penetration of mobile devices and strong governmental support for online retailers in Singapore attract consumers to shopping online instead of going all the way to malls

Consumers previously shopped at brick-and-mortal stores now prefer to shift shopping online retailers which causes lower demand for physical shopping spaces

2611

3533

25542338

1446 1563

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Average Top 20 Top 21~40

Top 41~60

Top 61~80

Top 81~100

(SGD)

2015 2025(Estimate)Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Singapore 48 21 81 67Malaysia 91 11 152 54Thailand 113 08 202 55Vietnam 67 06 160 47Philippines 100 05 206 47Indonesia 238 06 575 80

E-Commerce market size in SEA and monthly average amount of Online shopping in Singapore by Income group

Source NRI based on Google Temasek and Department of Statistics of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 145

Retail market-CAP Rate

South East Region has highest Cap Rate according to the CAP Rate of the main malls in Singapore

Retail Capitalization Rate by Core Central Region and Other Regions

50

52

54

56

58

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Central Core Region South EastNorth West South West

Source NRI based on Capital Land Frasers Centerpoiint and SPH REIT

Central Core RegionJunction 8AtriumBugis+ Clarke Quay Paragon Wisma Atria Ngee Ann City Bugis Junction Plaza Singapura

South EastTampines Mall Bedok Point Changi City Point

North WestBukit Panjang Plaza Causeway Point Northpoint Lot One Shopperrsquos Mall Yew Tee Point

South WestJcube Clementi MallData for 2010 and 2011 are not available because Jcubeand Clementi Mall was open in 2011 and 2012 respectively

List of Malls for Capitalization Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 146

Retail market- Future Supply

This is in line with governmentrsquos strategy ldquoWork-Live-Playrdquo solutions decentralizing working and living function to Outside Central Region

New retail supply will be suburbs especially Outside Central Region and large proportion of OCR retail will be in the East

Central34

South East30

NorthWest23

North East13

Project name and location Area Name of Developer Gross Floor Area

Expected year of final TOP

Hotelretail development at Airport Boulevard

SouthEast

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

90000 sq m

na

Northpoint City at Yishun Central 1

North West

North Gem Development Pte LtdFC North Gem Trustee Pte Ltd

39050 sq m

2018

Additionsalterations and extension to existing Singapore Post Centre at Eunos Road 8

South East

Singapore Post Limited 25000 sq m

na

Hillion Mall at Jelebu Road North West

Sim Lian JV (BP Retail) Pte LtdSim Lian JV (BP) Pte Ltd

20490 sq m

na

Officeretail development for Changi Airport Terminal 4 at Airport Boulevard

South East

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

19710 sq m

na

Proportion of Future Retail Supply by locations in 2016-2018 and the 5 largest pipelines in Singapore

Source NRI based on URA IE Singapore DBS

( Based on the sq m)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 147

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 148

Logistics Space- Geographic Area

Most of the warehouse space is located in the eastern and western part of Singapore

Source Google map NRI created based on public information

Hankyu Hanshin Express Singapore ( 1 )

Company name(Number of warehouse)【Legend】

Sumitomo Warehouse (Singapore) Pte Ltd ( 2 )

Sankyu (Singapore) PTE LTD ( 6 )

KEPPEL TampT ( 5 )

MAPALE TREE ( 50 )

SCHENKER SINGAPORE (PTE) LTD ( 11 )

Kintetsu World Express ( 2 )Acsendas ( 23 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 149

Logistics Space- Demand Trend

Manufacturing activities has been expanding in the past 13 months Industrial space market is expected to improve gradually

Singapore Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) Container Traffic of Singapore Port

PMI

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb-

15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb-

16

Apr

-16

Jun-

16

Aug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb-

17

Apr

-17

Jun-

17

Aug

-17

Note Singapore PMI measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 400 industrial companiesSource Singapore Institute of Purchasing amp Materials Management (SIPMM)

279299

259284

299316

326339

309 309

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

million TEUs

Source Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 150

Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate reduced gradually from 2016Q3 to 2017Q1 but increased in the most recent quarter following the higher rate of increase in warehouse space supply

Warehouse Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

79 82 83 84 85 86 87 89 91 93 94 95 96 101

89

115

96

82

100

84

75

86

96

110 109

103101

119

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Thousands sq m

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 151

Logistics Space- Rental Index

Warehouse rental is on the downward trend in recent years

Rental Index of Warehouse in Singapore

Index

Note 1) Before 4th Quarter 2014 the rental index is computed based on transactions in the Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 the scope of the rental index is expanded to

include transactions outside Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 and 1st Quarter 2016 the weights used are fixed using 2012 and 2015 transaction values respectively

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 152

Logistics Space- Future Supply

There will be a total of 084 million sqm GFA of warehouse space expected to be completed by 2021 and a surge in supply in 2017

Pipeline Supply of Warehouse in Singapore

394

162135 140

130

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Project Description Name of Developer GFA (sq m)

Expected year of completion

Poh Tiong Choon Logistics Hub at Pandan Road

Poh Tiong ChoonLogistics Ltd 50940 2017

Warehouse Development at Benoi Road GKE Warehousing amp Logistics Pte Ltd 39760 2017

Warehouse Development at PioneerRoad

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 71680 2017

Warehouse Development at JalanAhmad Ibrahim Tuas Avenue 1

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 44310 2018

JTC Logistics Hub Gul Circle JTC Corporation 95310 2019

Warehouse Development at Tuas South Avenue 14

Diamond Land Pte Ltd 65230 2020

Major Projects in the Pipeline as of 2017 Q2

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 153

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 154

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)

Visitor arrivals into Singapore has been increasing steadily since the 2008 global recession with numbers reaching stable levels in recent years

The increase in visitors can be attributed to increasing flight capacities into Singapore especially new direct connecting flights to secondary Chinese cities as well as an increase low-cost carriers (LCC) within SEA region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore (millions) (by mode of transport) (2007-2016)

103 10197

116

132

145

156151 152

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Land

Sea

Air

Total

CAGR 45 164

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 155

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)

Indonesia China Malaysia amp Australia constitute the top four largest countries for visitor numbers in Singapore

Visitor numbers from these countries have remained in the top four ranking boosted by the services of regional low cost-carriers in the region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Top visitors by nationalities () 2010-2014

197 1960 198 200 179

120 1400 146 114 138

87 850 8282 77

73 720 7271 69

523 507 502 533 537

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Indonesia China Malaysia Australia Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 156

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)

More than half of the visitors into Singapore are here for leisure purposes and 1 in 5 are here for business purposes

The high percentage of visitors coming to Singapore for leisure purposes suggests that initiatives to boost tourism in Singapore has been considerably successful in attracting visitors into the country

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Main Purpose of Visit () 2015

58 59 56

43

77

2013

1333

812 20

2115

6

10 8 10 9 9

Total Indonesia China Malaysia Australia

Leisure Business Others Not stated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 157

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)

Indeed though visitor numbers are relatively stable throughout the year they tend to peak during festive occasions or promotional periods

The peak from June to August can be attributed to the annual Great Singapore Sale an event organized by Singapore Tourism Bard amp Singapore Retailers Association to promote tourism in Singapore

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore

Great Singapore Sale

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20162013

2011

2009

F1 Grand Prix

End-of year

Holidays

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 158

Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply

While hotel room supply continues to increase each year post-recession occupancy rates have also stabilized staying close to 85 levels

Recent significant additions to hotel supply include Westin Singapore Marina Bay (2014) Sofitel So Singapore (2014) Holiday Inn Express (2014) amp Patina Hotel (2015)

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Available Room Nights (lsquo000) amp Occupancy Rate ()

84858686878685

81

76

12378

2010

11262

14241

2013

13118

10589

2015

15131

20142012

12451

2011

+54

2016

16162

2009

10875

2008

Average Occupancy Rate ()Available Room Nights

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 159

Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue

With the exception of luxury segment all other room segments are witnessing slight declines in room rates and RevPar

This downward pressure on rates and revenues is expected to continue as the influx of new hotel rooms continue for the next few years

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Average Room Rates by Room Segment (S$)Average Revenue per Available Room (RevPar) (S$) by Room Segment

4314 43594618 4491 4482

3014

2685 2668 2651 2612

1971 1906 1852 1749 1698

1107 1004 1098 1050 987

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

35183840

40433885 3812

2647

2307 2325 2282 2216

1708 1650 1573 1495 1453

940 846 878 833 777

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

Luxury - Includes hotels in the luxury segment and are predominantly in prime locations andor in historical buildings Upscale - Includes hotels in the upscale segment and are generally in prime locations or hotels with boutique positioning in prime or distinctive location Mid-Tier - Includes hotels in the mid-tier segment and are primarily located in prime commercial zones or immediately outlying areasEconomy - Includes hotels in the budget segment and are generally located in outlying areas

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 160

Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline

The hotel industry in Singapore braces itself for a large supply influx of new rooms with more than 2000 rooms slated to be completed by end of 2017 alone

The influx of new rooms is the greatest since the completion of the two integrated resorts in Marina Bay Sands (MBS) amp Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in 2010 and 2011 respectively

Source NRI based on various sources Straits Times TODAY etc

Source NRI based on Urban Redevelopment Authority

Number of Hotel Rooms in the Pipeline Selected RecentFuture Hotel Developments (2017)

60908

2565

2464

1331

182

342

582344

58000

60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber o

f hot

el ro

oms

Existing Under Construction

Planned (Written Permission) Planned (Provisional Permission)

ExpectedCompletion Year Hotel Name No of

Rooms

2017 JW Mariott Hotel Singapore South Beach 634

2017 The Warehouse Hotel 37

2017 Ascott Orchard Singapore 220

2017 Park Hotel Farrer Park 300

2017 Santa Grand Hotel Boat Quay 41

2017 Sofitel Singapore City Centre 223

2017 Andaz Singapore 342

2017 Courtyard by Marriott Singapore Novena 250

2017 The Duxton Club 49

2017 YOTEL Singapore 600

2017 Novotel Singapore on Stevens 254

CAGR 31

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 161

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 162

REIT Market

S-REIT has grown rapidly since the successful launch of the first REIT in 2002 S-REIT market capitalization has now attained a scale of USD 556 billion

Market Capitalization of REIT In USD Billion 2002- 2017

There are 38 listed REITs as of the end of June 2017

Source NRI based on Capital IQ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 163

REIT Market

Recent yield spread between S-REIT has also stayed close to 5

Although the S-REIT dividend yield rose sharply in 2009 due to fears that the mortgage crisis would spread to Singapore it has remained at approximately 7 since then

Source NRI based on Bloomberg

Average S-REIT dividend yield and spread with 10-year Singapore government bond

()

0

5

10

15

20

25

Spread 10-year SGB Yield Average Dividend Yield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 164

REIT Market

Retail Industrial and Office REIT are the major type of REIT in Singapore S-REITs also diversify into residential hotel amp resort healthcare and data center industry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized

Market Capitalization of REIT by Asset TypeIn USD Billion 2003- 2017

Asset Composition (2017)

SpecializedHealthcareHospitalityResidentialDiversified

Office

Industrial

Retail

18348232

122

160

245

306

1 Office1 Industrial 2 Retail

1 Healthcare1 Hospitality1 Residential1 Diversified3 Office4 Industrial 5 Retail

2 Healthcare1 Hospitality2 Residential1 Diversified3 Office7 Industrial 7 Retail

1 Specialized2 Healthcare5 Hospitality1 Residential4 Diversified6 Office9 Industrial 9 Retail

Number of REIT by asset type

Source Capital IQ

Chart1

Retail
Industrial
Office
Diversified
Residential
Hospitality
Healthcare
Specialized
4919
2929
0
0
0
0
0
0
12344
6189
5458
0
0
0
0
0
24064
15716
7312
9248
0
0
0
0
35082
20048
14636
11758
3173
0
0
0
72317
42532
34987
1854
7953
1223
1446
0
6508
3439
26179
1561
762
10519
6422
0
4945
28821
20857
10018
3758
4861
5197
0
76738
47631
39742
17782
6188
1220
7522
0
104025
87777
5322
27407
12393
16405
13105
0
112013
93221
56364
24259
11898
1450
13616
0
130698
107712
68086
47917
15109
31961
17999
0
159443
115798
80495
64488
1741
4230
18342
0
163131
109375
75232
6225
16744
45395
18358
6831
168423
127015
82747
6425
13784
41719
19079
7627
172877
138636
90674
69255
18147
46492
18982
1031

Sheet1

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 165

REIT Market

S-REITs have geographically diversified portfolio with 36 of international asset

S-REIT Geographical Coverage by Asset ValueIn 2016

Singapore64

Hong Kong10

China6

Australia New

Zealand6

Japan South Korea

4

India3

Europe2

US1

Other Asia4

36 of the total asset value of Singapore REITs is contributed by foreign property asset

Overseas property assets are mainly located in Hong Kong China Australia and New Zealand

Geographically diversified portfolio is driven by these factorsbull Singapore-based REIT have to venture overseas market

due to the limited domestic real estate market Furthermore S-REIT is granted tax exemption on qualifying foreign-sources income from overseas property As of 2015 22 out of 34 S-REITs hold foreign real estate

bull Favorable tax environment in Singapore actively attracts foreign REIT to list in the country

Source DBS Bank

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 166

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 167

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 168

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population is around 66 million people Thailand is currently under military coup and the current reign of King Rama X started since October 2016

Source Department of Provincial Administration Official Statistics Registration Systems BMA Data Center The Bureau of Registration Administration Bank of Thailand Office of Ethnic Affairs National Real Estate Information Center

Country Name The Kingdom of Thailand

National Characteristic

Population 65931550 people (As of 2017)

Religion Buddhism (946) Islamism (42) Christianity (11) Hinduism Sikhism and Others (01) (As of 2014)

Ethnic Composition

Thai (987) Sino-Tibetan (08) Austroasiatic (03) Malayo-Polynesian (02) (As of 2012)

Political Structure

Political System Constitutional democracy

Head of State King Vajiralongkorn (King Rama X)

Head of Government Prime minister - General Prayut Chan-ocha

No of Ministries 20 ministries

Geographical Characteristic

Land Area 513208 kmsup2 (Japan = 377962 kmsup2)

Capital City Bangkok - Population 10765226 people (as of 2016)

Time Zone (UTC+0700) Bangkok Hanoi Jakarta

OthersCurrency Thai baht (100 Yen = 309084 Thai baht) (As of 10 April 2017)

Language Thai (Official language)

Overview of ThailandThailandrsquos map

Northern

NortheasternCentral

Eastern

West

South

Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 169

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos economy shows sign of recovery and is expected to expand continuously

Source IMF

14 17

-11

-54

42

-01

1520

03

12 10 1206 08

02 07 06

50 54

17

-07

75

08

72

27

09

29 32 30 33 32 31 30 30

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

Japan Thailand

It is expected that the growth of GDP of Thailand will be driven primarily from fiscal stimulus and tourist receipts The government policy about public investment in infrastructure advanced manufacturing and innovation-driven

projects recovery in services and private consumption could also underpin growth

GDP annual growth rate of Japan and Thailand in 2006-2022f

ForecastActual

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 170

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Service sector is a driver for GDP growth

GDP by Sector 2006-2015 (Current Value)

790 849 978 946 1138 1311 1422 1463 1330 1193

3299 3589 3843 37394325 4305 4625 4779 4878 4975

43124638

4886 4974

53465691

63106680 6996 7505

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector( as of 2015)

Services(5489)

CAGR 57

Industry(3639)

CAGR 42

Agriculture(872)

CAGR 42

Source World Bank Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 171

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Bangkok and vicinities have been the central of business in Thailand generating almost half of national GDP

Source Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

Gross Regional Product of Thailand 2006-2015

3915 4172 4380 4351 4774 4931 5377 5688 6027 6397

1481 1704 1812 1716

1966 2028 2255 2308

2392 2405

733 800 830 939

1055 1151 1278

1373 1312 1328

823 858

911 876

1069 1185

1163 1168 1141

1199

635 669

753 763

860 926

1102 1116 1100

1069

491 537

657 634

691 657

720 807 763

789

322 337

364 380

394 428

462 460 470

486

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities Eastern North Eastern Southern Northen Central Western

Eastern which ranks the second GDP generator is the special economic zone of the project Eastern Seaboard and the project Eastern Economic Corridor

Region( as of 2015)

Northeastern (971)

Eastern (1759)

Central (577)

Southern (877)

Northern (782)

Bangkok andvicinities (4679)

Western (356)

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 172

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos GDP per capita has been growing from 2006-2016 Among ASEAN it ranks the fourth after Singapore Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia

GDP per capita 2005-2016 ndash Thailand

128137

146 144160 167

182 189 191 197 204

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source IMF

52755

21497

9811

59403620 2978 2174 1865 1416 1235

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000THB thousands USD

GDP per capita 2016 ndash ASEAN countries

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 173

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Since flooding in Bangkok in 2011 interest rate has consistently declined to 150 and it is expected to stay at this level to boost Thai economic growth

Source Bank of Thailand

500

125150

487

212

504

583

272

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Rate T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 5 years T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 10 years

Rates at the end of month

Thailand interest rate in 2007-2017

Bank of Thailand announced to remain the implementation of the Expansionary Monetary Policy in order to strengthen Thailand economic situation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 174

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

THB had shown the depreciation against JPY after reaching the strongest point in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Exchange rate between THB to 100 JPY and THB to USD to THB in 2006-2017

Debt crisis in EuropeSubprime mortgage crisis in US Quantitative easing program implementation in Japan

3578

2907

3445

3048

2766

4104

2711

3128

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USD to THB 100 JPY to THB

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 175

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population has continually been aging and is expected to be aged society within 2025

National population by gender and age group in 2005 and 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Thailand 2005 Thailand 2015 Japan 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Source UN National Statistical Office

In 201518 of total population are 0-14 year age group and 10 are people over 65 years old It is predicted that within 2025 the proportion of age group of over 65 years will be 16 of total population defining

Thailand as aged society

(Thousands people)(Thousands people) (Thousands people)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 176

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

The number of households in Thailand is increasing while the family size tends to reduce The type of family changes from extend family to nuclear one

Thailand average household size in 2006-2015

Source Population and housing census Thailand National Real Estate Information Center

In 2016 Thailand has 21326000 households in total There is an increase in numbers of households in Bangkok and vicinities whereas the number of household in North Eastern which is the highest one has declined

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities North Eastern Northen

Southern Eastern Western

Central

Thousands households

34 3432 32 33 32 33 32 31

29

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Persons

Number of households by regions 2006-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 177

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Family living in Bangkok and vicinities earned the highest amount of income

Source National Statistical Office

Average annual household income in different regions in 2007-2015

RegionAverage annual household income (THB thousand)

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bangkok and vicinities 327 346 347 395 437

Eastern 227 240 271 317 332

Central 226 280 268 345 305

Southern 233 263 314 326 303

North Eastern 153 178 215 220 248

Western 193 214 205 256 245

Northern 157 186 203 232 234

Average 21657 24386 26043 29871 30057

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 178

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Household consumption House andor land Farming Business Education Others

163087

116681

134699 134900

156770

THB

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailand household debt to GDP decreased in 2017 but it is still considered at high level Household consumption and housing were the main purposes of borrowing

Average household debt to GDP in 2008-2017

517 524

579 593

662

718765

799 812 799

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average debt per household by purposes in 2007-2015

Thailand household debt to GDP had been rising for a decade and just showed the sign of decline due to the growth in GDP and shrinking in personal loan resulting from more stringent loan standard by banks

Spending on household consumption and house andor land contributed around 70 of average household debt in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 179

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Electric train transport will cover most areas of BKK within 2022 3 international airports (Don Mueang Suvarnabhumi and U-Tapao) will be linked by Airport Rail Link

Mass Rapid Transit System (MRT)

Source Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand

Line Route Start construction Open service

Current MRT network

Airport Rail Link Phaya Thai ndash Suvannabhumi Operating

Green Mo Chit ndash BearingNational Stadium ndash Bangwa Operating

Blue Bang Sue ndashHualumpong OperatingPurple Bang Yai ndash Bang Sue Operating

Planned projects

Dark RedThammasat University ndash Rangsit 2015 2018Rangsit ndash Bang Sue 2015 2020

Hua Lampong ndash Maha chai Planned Planned

Light RedTaling Chan ndash Bang Sue 2015 2018Bang Sue ndash Makksan - Hua Mak 2015 2018

Airport Rail Link Don Muang ndash Bang Sue ndash Phaya Thai 2015 2019

Dark GreenMo Chit - Khu Khot 2015 2020Bearing - Samutprakarn ndash Bangpu 2012 2019

Light GreenTaling Chan - Bangwa 2016 2021National Stadium ndash Yod Sae Planned Planned

BlueTha Phra - Bang Sue 2011 2019Hua Lumpong ndash Bang Kae 2011 2019Bang Kae - Putthanomthon Sai 4 2017 2021

Purple Taopun ndash Ratchburana 2012 2019

Orange Taling Chan ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Pink Khae Rai ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Yellow Lao Phro ndash Samrong 2017 2020Gold Krung Thonburi ndash Prachatipok 2017 2020Grey Vacharaphol ndash Wutthakat - -

Airport Rail Link Don Mueang - Suvarnabhumi - U-Tapao - -

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 180

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 181

Office market

Office market in Bangkok is concentrated in CBD Inner Bangkok and currently has been spreading to city fringe considered to be potential new CBD

Core Central Business District(Asoke Phloen Chit Sathon

Siam Silom area)

bull Inner Bangkok areabull Largest office districtbull Densely occupied by government

offices embassies financial firms and corporate headquarters

bull High rent costbull Limited supply

Potential new Central Business District

(Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 area)

bull Located the north east of the core CBD

bull Lower rent costbull More available supplybull Future hub of transport

Business districts in Bangkok

Due to the scarcity of land for development in CBD and the expansion of mass transit system to surrounding areas the area in city fringe such as Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 has been developed to be another business district

Source NRI analysis

Map of Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 182

Thousand Sqm

15

29

132

96

116107

135

146 143

118

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net new supply Net demand

Office market

The demand is expected to increase due to business expansion and governmentrsquos policy encouraging new business set-up and investment promotion

Bangkok office accumulated supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2016

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Bangkok annual net new supply and net demand in 2012-2016

Note these figures exclude multi-owner occupied premises and office buildings smaller than 5000 Sqm

Thousand Sqm

4463 4454 4478 4604 4700 4783

3801 3908 4049 4190 4333 4451

852 877 904 910 922 931

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Supply Demand Occupancy rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 183

Office market

The change of occupancy rate of non-CBD Grade A is mainly resulted from the completion of new buildings and the movement of tenants to the new ones The 9th Tower (57618 sqm) AIA Capital Centre (54000 sqm) Bhiraj Tower (32000 sqm) G Tower (66000 sqm)

The decline of amount of occupied space in CBD Grade B buildings might be a result of relocation of tenants from CBD Grade B buildings to new properties in non-CBD area due to rising rents and limited space

Asking rent space availability easy access by mass transit and good quality of office supply with supporting amenities are the factors supporting an increase of renting in non-CBD area

Even though there was more supply added for non-CBD Grade A offices the occupancy rate turned at high level in all areas

Occupancy rate by grade in 2014Q1-2016Q4

0

10

14Q

1

14Q

2

14Q

3

14Q

4

15Q

1

15Q

2

15Q

3

15Q

4

16Q

1

16Q

2

16Q

3

16Q

4

CBD Grade A CBD Grade B Overall Non-CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade B

928953

908

934

904

931

947

823812

927

884

917

80

85

90

95

100

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 184

Office market

Around 77 of the additional volume of supply for the next 3 years will be located in non-CBD area

Number of office building construction permits in CBD and non-CBD

Source Manager newspaper National Real Estate Information Center Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Planned future office supply in CBD and non-CBD 2017-2019

71

123 116 114

103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BuildingsZone Buildings Space

(sqm)

Expected completion

year

CBDGaysorn Office Tower 32000 2017

Samyan Mirttown 7000 2019

Non-CBD

G Tower (North Tower) 50000 2017

MS Siam Tower 48000 2018

Bhiraj Tower at BITEC 42531 2017

Singha Complex 37000 2018

T1 Office building 34000 2018

Shinnawat 4 31880 2017

Ladprao Hills 25087 2017

Aree Hill 23340 2018

Cosmo Office Park 12000 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 185

Office market

Rental rate is trending upwards and this trend is expected to continue in 2017 due to increasing demand and limited supply especially in CBD

736 753823 854

937 960

578 610 630 661723

818

572 593 626 646695

738

558 575 601 607 640 671

420 433 449 461 479 504

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade A Bangkok Average CBD Grade B Non-CBD Grade B

Bangkok office asking rent per square meter by grade in 2011-2016

price at the end of year

In 2016 the overall average asking rent is increasing 62 from 2015 to be THB 738 per sqm The highest rental rate growth is shown in non-CBD Grade A buildings increasing 131

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 186

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 187

Residential Market

Apart from the effect of economic slowdown more stringent mortgage loan criteria by banks significantly affected both buyers and developers especially small and medium-sized investment companies as well as newcomers of the real estate industry resulting in slow pace of sales and supply

Some Thai developers started the joint ventures with foreign companies to bring in innovation to improve construction process architecture and design and to finance projects For example Mitsui Fudosan and Ananda Development AP and Mitsubishi Estate and Sena Development and Hankyu Realty

In October 2015 the stimulus package which is the temporary reduction of transfer and mortgage fee was announced in order to boost the residential market after the market shrinking affected by the coup in May 2014

Residential market in Bangkok and vicinities have been expanding but with decreasing growth rate due to tightened lending criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Prachachat newspaper

Market value of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H1 (THB million)

Share( as of 2016H1)

CAGR 59

Condominium(4533)

CAGR 60

Housing(5467)

CAGR 57576524 699275 754221 842763 867646 813632 900096 901127

468422 545916

601852 566575 608603 596753 694000 747299

1916

890

393 475

-446

1303

341

-400000

0

400000

800000

1200000

1600000

2000000

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1

Housing Condominium Growth

THB millions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 188

Residential Market

A sign of low growth in new supply is showed in both markets since developers aim to postpone new projectslaunching until the inventory will be absorbed Oversupply could be an issue for this market especially condominium in the peripheral Bangkok since there is

remaining built-but-unsold inventory as well as supply of land for development is still high

The demand of condominium markets is supported by rising number of smaller size of family changing lifestyle and convenience in transportation and living

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The number of total supply and the take-up rate of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H2 (units)

91147 107962 114006 116133 123697 120747 125991 125099 126161

6728266874 72187 81422 78502 76963 78535 77848 77668

101312127328 142563 141741 148674 146923 160658 171796 179930

40740

4290449352 54054 57324 57364

5985659642 58957

57536175 6123 5879 6118 6107 6160 6164 6190

71327480 7428 7239 7217 7192 7286 7423 7532

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H20

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Housing units sold Housing unsold units Condominium units sold Condominium unsold units Housing take-up Condominiums take-up

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 189

Residential Market

Land price is the factor which has the most influence on the price of condominium and houses particularly condominium projects in the downtown area In 2016 overall land price in Bangkok increased approximately 4 Areas along the mass transit train lines saw an increase in price about 65-89 While midtown and

suburban showed the land price appreciation around 26-43 land prices in downtown area rose 64

Prices index of all types of properties have risen while landrsquos and condominiumrsquos price index ranked the top

Land price index and house price index by type of house for Bangkok and vicinities in 2008-2017

Note 1 Single detached house including land town house including land and condominium price indices have been constructed by using hedonic regression method (Rolling window and time dummy) (3-month moving average)

2 Land price index has been constructed by using Stratification method with monthly weight (3-month moving average)

Source Bank of Thailand Thansettakij newspaper

Reference point = 100 (Jan 2009)

89 100 102106 108 114

120 128 129 129

89

100 104106 111

124134 138 137

99118 119

131 130140

156 160171

90108

114123 124

138148

170172

40

70

100

130

160

190

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Detached house (including land) Townhouse (including land) Condominium Land

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 190

Residential Market

Criteria for good location could be the connected transportation network and the expansion of train lines in suburban areas

The majority of housing supply is condensed in suburban areas in Bangkok However they have been diffused to vicinities due to price and availability of land

Source National Real Estate Information Center Post Today newspaper

The dispersion of housing supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of housing supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

PathumThani

Bangkok

Nakorn Pathom

SamutPrakan

Samut Sakhon

LegendHousingHousing started being sold since July 2016

Nonthaburi

N = 203255

336

198

198

160

6840

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan Samut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 191

Residential Market

Supply of available land for development is still high in midtown and suburban area in Bangkok where will be the areas of the expansion of mass transit lines and facility development

In Bangkok 70 of supply is in midtown and suburban area but projects with the highest value are in the downtown area

PathumThani

Nonthaburi

Nakorn Pathom

Samut SakhonSamut Prakan

Bangkok

LegendCondominiumsCondominiums started being sold since July 2016

The dispersion of condominiums supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of condominiums supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

Source National Real Estate Information Center

N = 238887

683

153

61

8206 15

Bangkok NonthaburiPathum Thani Samut PrakanSamut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 192

Residential Market

Bangkok has the highest sold rate in housing and condominium market compared to other vicinities because of convenience of transportation and facilities

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for housing in 2016H2 The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for condominium in 2016H2

493

544

548

584

596

719

507

456

452

416

404

281

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nakorn Pathom

Samut Sakhon

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

519

567

626

680

718

797

481

433

374

320

282

203

0 20 40 60 80 100

Samut Sakhon

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Nakorn Pathom

Nonthaburi

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 193

Residential Market

Townhouse and THB 1-3 million house were the best selling products in term of units However over THB 5 million house showed increasing take-up rate

Townhouse and detached house showed a decreasing trend on demand but they still occupied around 85 of total sold units Prime townhouse in downtown or midtown became more demand since its price per square meter is lower than condominium in midtown

The number of house transfer was much less than sales particularly in houses which are less than THB 2 million because of tightened lending restrictions by banks The mortgage rejection rates were as high as 50 since borrowers especially low-to-middle-income ones have

been faced with the situation of higher level of personal debt than the required criteria by banks

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkok Post newspaper

The take-up rate of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by types in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

4725 4597 4577

3888 3827 3653

955 1123 1267

402 421 458

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Townhouse Detached house Duplexed

Shophouse Others

117 091 104

4040 3925 3921

3347 3470 3477

2495 2514 2498

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 194

Residential Market

The highest demand was shown in 1 bedroom condominium and condominium with pricing THB 1-3 million while take-up rate of over THB 5 million units is rising

For midtown and suburban areas there is an increase in supply due to land availability with reasonable price and mass transportation expansion

For downtown area there is a limited supply with the upward trend of price due to limited supply of land for development

The number of transfer units may not as high as the number of sold units because of inability to secure loan Developers had shifted their focus to the upper-end level market since this market had high take-up rate and was

less affected by strict mortgage loan criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Sold units of condominium by types in 2015H2-2016H2 Sold units of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2 The take-up rate of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

1641 1675 1924

7058 7007 6826

1197 1218 1163104 100 087

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Studio 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms ge 3 bedrooms

954 851 893

5981 5942 6094

1655 1654 1530

1411 1553 1483

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 195

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

The areas for prime condominiums are well-developed as a center of business education convenient public transport and shopping malls

Prime Sukhumvit area has 4 prime projects with 597 new units launched in 2016 which share the largest portion in supply

Central Lumpini area showed the highest growth in average selling price at 99 following by Prime Sukhumvit with 81 increase Riverside-Rama III and Sathorn-Silom area which the price rose 31 and 28 respectively

Prime Sukhumvit remains the main location of prime condominiums

2016 prime projects Location Average asking

price (THBSqm) Units

98 Wireless Central Lumpini (Wireless) 550000 77

28 Chidlom Central Lumpini (Chidlom) 350000 436

Khun by Yoo Prime Sukhumvit (Thonglor 12) 300000 148

Vittorio Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 39) 280000 88

KRAAM Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 26) 275000 126

Laviq Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 57) 240000 235

New supply of prime condominium projects in Bangkok in 2016

Prime condominium is refer to condominium with pricing more than 200000 THBSqm

Location map of areas for prime condominiums in Bangkok

Central Lumpini area Prime Sukhumvit area

Riverside-Rama III area

Sathorn-Silom area

Source Property Insight news Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 196

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

Developer had shifted their focus to prime condominium due to limited supply and had demand from both domestic and foreign

Source Property Today news Bangkokbiz News newspaper Nation newspaper

Supplybull Luxury condominium segment accounted for less than 5 of the total Bangkok condominium supply bull In 2016 the market showed strong growth in supply by 246 increasing especially within the Prime Sukhumvit area bull Developers focused more on prime condominiums since there was purchasing power and land price in downtown area

was too high to develop middle level projects

Demand

bull There was demand with 645 take-up rate with decreasing growth rate bull Buyers in this segment did not rely on home loans and had purchasing power bull There were both domestic and foreign demand Thai buyers accounted for about 85 The rest was the foreign buyers

mostly people from Hong Kong Singapore and Taiwan who have business in Thailandbull Around 48 bought a unit for self-occupancy 36 bought to generate long-term rental income and 16 were the

short-term speculatorsbull Buyers are likely to be more selective

Price bull Price has been increased 47 in average from 2015 The highest record of asking price is THB 720000 sqm by 98 Wireless It is expected that price levels will remain high and may rise due to the land price appreciation

Challenge bull Limited of supply of land for development and high land-acquisition costbull Anticipate customerrsquos needs and deliver superior customer value

Key success factors

bull Accessibility factors convenient transportation both by car and public transportbull Living factors close to shopping malls recreation education health care and business areabull Mood amp livable factors location attributes unique ambience architecture and premium amenities are also represent

the excusive lifestyle and preferences of the target group Brand affiliation was applied as value creation for projectsbull Cost factors competitive price with high quality

Opportunity bull Condominium ownership law for foreigners 49 of total units can be occupied by foreign person

Prime condominium

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 197

Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies

There is no difference between Thai and joint venture projects in terms of price and building except one project differentiating by applying Japanese unique theme

List of Japanese companies conducting joint venture with Thai companies

Price range (THBSqm)

lt 70000 70000 -200000

gt 200000

Floo

r lev

els

gt 30

flo

ors

10 -

29flo

ors

lt 10

flo

ors

Include only new launched condominium projects in 2016-2017

Japan-Thailand joint venture projects positioning

Japanese companies Thai companies of joint venture projects

Mitsui Fudosan (Asia) Pte Ltd

Ananda Development PLC 12

Mitsubishi Estate Co Ltd AP (Thailand) PLC 8

Nomura Real Estate Development Co Ltd Origin Property PLC 3

Hankyu Realty Co Ltd Sena Development PLC 2

Shinwa Real Estate Co Ltd Woraluk Property PLC 1

Tokyu Corporation Sansiri PLC 1

Color denotes the location

1500 units 500 units

Size of circle denotes the number of units

Source NRI analysis

Suburban area with mass rapid transit accessMidtown area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 198

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 199

Hotel market trend

Number of international tourists has been increasing every year except 2014 which had politic issue and coup drsquoetat

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Malaysia Japan Korea Russia Othercoup detat

CAGR 95

Number of international tourists visiting Thailand

In 2015 Chinese tourist is around 266 which increased around 4 times in 10 years following by Malaysian 115 and Japanese 46

Thousand persons

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 200

Hotel market trend

From 2012 trend of total length of stay has been decreasing due to increasing of tourists from East Asia

95 90 91 96 100 99 98 95

59 57 59 64 68 68 67 70

158142 145

156165 165 164 169

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total EastAsia Europe

Average length of stay of international tourists

In average tourists from East Asia stay around 7 days while European tourists stay around 17 days

Days

Average length of stay of East Asia tourists in 2015

Country of resident Average length of stay (days)

China 81

Japan 80

Korea 77

Taiwan 76

Hong Kong 65

ASEAN 56

Others 72

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 201

Hotel market trend

Japanese tourist spend more on accommodation but Chinese tourist spend money more on others such as souvenir

21013

5109

9985

15273

27229

5630

10924

15884

17933

5013

10621

18330

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Others

Transportation

FoodBeverage

Accomodation

Japan China Total

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports National Statistical Office

Average expenditure per day of Total Chinese and Japanese tourists by purpose in 2015 Average expenditure of international tourists per person per day in 2008-2015

THB

THB

4520543525 44246 44708

48262

50972

54975

59666

4521143970 44171 44724

4725049207

48876

51897

4142340112 40787

41871

43928

4616548089

51379

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Japan Total

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 202

Hotel market trend

Number of hotel room is increasing and occupancy rate also increasing with CAGR (2009-2015) around 99 In Bangkok the new supply mainly in Sukhumvit Rd

Source National Statistical Office

The number of hotel rooms and occupancy rate nationwide in 2009-2015

366455

531 528 540 551

651

368395

438487

563 581

651

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Room Occupancy Rate

Thousand units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 203

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 204

1719 17192033

2567

3271314

533

705

315

1630 1630 1813 2015

2572

183202

557

208

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Existing supply New supply Existing demand New demand

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand Sqm

94838918

7852 7862 7750

Occupancy rate

Logistics Property Market

Market value has increased to be about THB 68 billion in 2015 with CAGR (2011-2015) 202 in supply and 143 in demand

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Warehouse supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 205

Logistics Property Market

The movement at ports is rising indicating an increase of demand for logistics property service

Source Ministry of Commerce Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Number of containers passing through Bangkok and Laem Chabang port in 2012-2016

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Bangkok Port - Inbound Laem Chabang Port - Inbound

Bangkok Port - Outbound Laem Chabang Port - Outbound

Thousand TEU

Remark TEU ndash Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit Container

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CAGR 45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 206

Logistics Property Market

The positive factor for the future demand of warehouse service is growing logistic industry supported by E-commerce market and governmentrsquos projects

Source Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Segment( as of 2021f)

Government(1833)

CAGR 184Retail

(2333)CAGR 187

Businesses(6001)

CAGR 201

THB trillions

12 14 16 19 2227

3605

0506

0709

1

14

0405

0506

07

09

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

E-commerce market value in 2015-2021f List of infrastructure development projects in 2015-2022

Infrastructure projects Year

Airport Development of U Tapao airport to be aviation hub

2017-2021

Port Development of 6 ports in the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea

2015-2022

Railway Railway Standard Gauge Thailand-ASEAN-China

2015-2022

Dual-track railway (Laem Chabang port Map Ta Phut port)

2017-2021

High-speed train connecting 3 airports (Suvannabhumi Don Muaeng U Tapao)

2017-2021

Road 12 Motorway connecting between regions 2015-2022

Motorway (Bangkok-ChonburiPattaya-Map Ta Phut)

2017-2021

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 207

Logistics Property Market

Among 3 keys logistics areas Bangkok-Samutprakan has the highest supply since it is the area of airports and industrial estates and it also locates near Bangkok

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Supply share by key logistics locations

Pathumthani-Ayutthaya

Bangkok-Samutprakan

Eastern Seaboard

453

398

144

04

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard

Pathumthani-Ayuttaya Others

Map of Thailand key logistics locations

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 208

Logistics Property Market

Price competition occurred in Eastern Seaboard area since there was a rise in supply resulting from forecasted demand from Eastern Economic Corridor project

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Monthly warehouse rental rates by key logistics locations in 2011-2015

156157

161 161 161

152 152153

150 149147 148

150151 151

155 155

158157 157

140

145

150

155

160

165

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard Pathumthani-Ayutthaya Market rate

THBSqm

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 209

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 210

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 211

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population Growth

India is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption

Source Population Reference Bureau 2017 Datasheet USA

Indiarsquos Position in Population Growth Indiarsquos Population Structure by Age

China18

India18

USA4

Indonesia4

Brazil3

Rest53

2017 (August)

India17

China14

Nigeria4

USA4Indonesia

4

Rest57

2050F

World Population (mid-2017) 7536 mn World Population (2050F) 9683 mn

-100-050

mdash050100150200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

lation

grow

th ra

te (

)

Time (years)

India China Russia Brazil Korea Japan USA UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Percentage of population

Age (

in ye

ars)

YearMedian age (years) Dependability ratio ()Working age population ()

Most favorable period for development

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 212

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid Urbanization

India is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing

Urbanization Trends Major Urban Centers

29 33 38 43 4861

74 81

7681

8588

9092

88 81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Percentage of total population

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(00rsquo

s m

illio

n)

TimeUrban Rural Urban population as of total

Past Trend Projected Future Trend

Source 1 World Urbanization Prospects The 2014 Revision UN Population Division

2

1

6

3

7

5

4

7 Major Urban Centres (Tier 1 cities)

Non-Major Urban Centres (Tier 2 cities)

Source NRI analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 213

904 908 911 914 91996

9289

8681

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Constructionothers

Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of Economy

Although the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years

Contribution of Construction Sector to Countryrsquos GVA (Gross Value Add) at factor cost (at current prices)

As demographic pressure grows need to sustain economic growth will drive investments in the construction sector

Base year 2011-12Values INR trillion

81192

10361148

1246

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 214

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure

GDP per capita at current prices

Source IMF World Economic Outlook April 2017

The improving economic condition of the society will increase the demand for better quality infrastructure especially housing

Average Household Savings per annum

Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E2015E2016E 2019

US$

Time (years)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015IN

R (In

Tho

usan

ds)

Urban Rural Overall

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 215

Note Middle class defined as those living in households with daily per capita income between US$10-100 at 2005 US$ PPP terms

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world

Structure of Population in March 2015 by Income Top 10 Countries in Middle Class Consumption

HHI Household Income per annumHHI brackets Rich (above Rs 073mn) High middle income (Rs 073-020mn) Middle income (Rs 02-01mn) Lower Income and Poor (below Rs 01mn)Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid Data Retrieved 09th Sep 2016 Source Brookings Institution OECD Working Paper no-285 2010

RANK 2009 2020 2030

1 US 44 CHINA 45 INDIA 128

2 JAPAN 18 US 43 CHINA 100

3 GERMANY 12 INDIA 37 US 40

4 FRANCE 09 JAPAN 22 INDONESIA 25

5 UK 09 GERMANY 14 JAPAN 23

6 RUSSIA 09 RUSSIA 12 RUSSIA 14

7 CHINA 07 FRANCE 11 GERMANY 13

8 ITALY 07 INDONESIA 10 MEXICO 12

9 MEXICO 07 MEXICO 10 BRAZIL 12

10 BRAZIL 06 UK 10 FRANCE 11

WORLD 21 WORLD 35 WORLD 55

1304

58

29

87

RICHAverage HHI Rs114mn+14 over 2015

HIGH MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI Rs 033mnNo Change

MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI 015 mn+7 over 2015

LOWER INCOME ampPOORAverage HHI 075mn+7 over 2015

Indiarsquos middle class population would greatly drive demand in the construction sector

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 216

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 217

Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and Growth

The construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure

Sector contribution to Gross Value Added 2015-16 Real-estate market size and growth-rate

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017) Source IBEF India Julrsquo17

Total GVA value at current prices (Base year 2011-12) INR 1246 trillion

Note Real-estate market includes ownership of residential commercial and industrial dwellings and related business services

Agriculture forestry and

fishing17

Mining and quarrying

2

Manufacturing17

Electricity gas water supply amp

other utility services

3

Construction8

Trade repair hotels and restaurants

11

Transport storage

communication amp services hellip

Financial services

6

Real estate ownership of

dwelling amp professional

services15

Public administration and defence

6

Other services8

50 53 56 67 121 94 126 180

853

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2020E 2028E

US$

(bill

ion)

Time (years)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 218

Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players Performance

The real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes

Source Capital IQ amp NRI Analysis

List of Prominent Real Estate Developers (Listed Players only)

Developer Name Revenue USD mn (FY17)

FocusedMarket

Asset ClassResidential Retail Office Hospitality Industrial

DLF Ltd 1269 North India

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd

737 Bengaluru

Godrej Properties Ltd 244 West India

Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd

358 Metro Cities

Unitech Ltd 267 North India

Sobha Ltd 344 South India

The Phoneix Mills Ltd 282 West amp South

Omaxe Limited 251 North India

Brigade Enterprises Ltd 312 South India

Oberoi Realty Ltd 172 West India

HDIL 112 Mumbai

Mahindra Lifespace Developers

118 West amp South

Ashiana Housing Ltd 56 North India

Nesco Ltd 55 Mumbai

Nirlon Ltd 37 Mumbai

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 219

Financing Developments ndash Project Financing Options

Private lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed

Financing options by developers preference Recently Introduced Financing Options

PE funds

NBFC Lending

Private Lending

Bank Lending

FCCB

QIP

AIF

IPO

bull NBFC Non-banking Financial Companybull PE Private Equitybull IPO Initial Public Offeringbull ECB External Commercial Borrowing

bull QIP Qualified Institutional Placementbull FCCB Foreign currency bondsbull REMF Real Estate Mutual Fundbull AIF Alternative Investment Fundbull REIT Real Estate Investment Trustbull InvIT Infrastructure Investment Trust

Preference (high to low)

REMF

REIT

ECB

InvIT

Option Brief Description Merit

AIF bull Diversified portfolio of funds that invest in real estate infra and other priority sector projects

bull Long-term money can be invested in unlisted companies

bull Easy access of money from foreign investors

REIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of real estate assets on behalf of investors

bull Will create exit opportunities for developers and financial investors

bull Infuse transparency and liquidity in the market

InvIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of income generating infrastructure projects

bull Will create liquidity for private infrastructure players

bull Will lower debt exposure and unlocktied up capital of developers

Source NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 220

Financing Developments Trends in REITs

REITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

Reg

ulat

ory

Inve

stor

s

Regulation Introducedbull lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts

Regulations 2014rsquo introduced

Taxation Relaxedbull Dividend distribution tax on REITs

abolished

Operating Conditions Relaxedbull Limit on maximum number of sponsors

raised to fivebull Limit on investment in under-construction

projects raised to 20bull Foreign fund managers allowed to relocate

to India as fund manager

Investments by Banks Allowedbull Indian Central Bank (RBI) allowed

Indian banks to invest in REITs within their umbrella limit of 20 of their Net-Owned Funds

bull This umbrella limit of 20 includes bankrsquos investments in equity-linked mutual funds venture capital funds and stocks

Investments by Mutual Fundsbull Mutual funds allowed to invest up to

5 of their NAV in a single REIT with maximum REIT exposure restricted at 10 of NAV

bull GIC CPPIB Temasek ADIA in talks with IndoSpace for launching ~USD2 bn logistics REIT

bull Blackstone to launch ~USD06 bn office REIT with Embassy Group

bull DLF plans to launch office REIT by mid-2018

bull Blackstone to launch second office REIT with Panchshil Realty

bull Blackstone may consider listing its retail assets under REIT in future

bull Post approval by RBI mutual fund houses are altering their schemes to allow investments in to REITs and InvITs- DSP Blackrock MF altered two

schemes- Birla Sun Life MF altered 12

schemes- ICICI Prudential MF altered three

schemes

bull RMZ Corp (backed by Qatar Investment Authority) is looking to launch REIT by end-2017

bull K Raheja Corp is consolidating its office assets and may be considering launching an office REIT

bull Even though REIT Regulations were introduced in 2014 no real estate developer or investor had shown interest in the initial two years

bull Regulatory points such as dividend distribution tax and certain operating conditions made India REIT listings unattractive for investors

Investments by Insurance Cosbull Insurance companies allowed to

invest up to 3 of their funds in REITs with maximum holding in a single REIT restricted to 5

Source Reserve Bank of India Press Articles NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 221

Financing Developments Trends in Domestic Investments

Domestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Based on data till June 2017

563

23852078

1011

PE investments indicate deals by India-dedicated funds

6753

67

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 15x of 1Q16

2014 2015 2016 2017

Numb

er an

d Valu

e of D

eals

Key D

eals

Ann

ounc

emen

ts

bull Tata Capital ndash Shriram Properties USD80 mn

bull Peninsula Brookfield (Domestic fund) ndash Ansal API USD50 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Nirmal Lifestyle USD50mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndash Supertech USD45 mn

bull Fund raising- Kotak Realty USD400 mn- HDFC USD 250 mn

bull Indostar Capital ndash Total Environment Building Systems USD137 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Omkar Realtors and Developers USD200 mn

bull Piramal Enterprises ndashOzone Group USD96 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Lodha Group USD86 mn

bull Fund raising- HDFC Property USD550 mn- Arthveda USD250 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Lodha Group USD347 mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndashM3M India USD187 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Adarsh Developers USD110 mn

bull Altico Capital ndash Vatika Group USD103 mn

bull Fund raising- Rising StraitsUSD1000 mn- HDFC Venture USD400 mn- ASK Group USD299 mn

bull HDFC Venture Edelweiss Capital Altico Capital ndash Adarsh Developers USD144 mn for land acquisition and starting construction on five residential projects

bull Piramal Fund ndash ASF Group USD85 mn for IT SEZbull Piramal Fund ndash Wadhwa Group USD65 mn for office assetsbull Altico Capital ndash Sheth Group USD56 mn for residential project developmentbull Edelweiss Capital ndash Parinee Realty USD51 mn for under-construction luxury

residential projectbull Fund raising

- SMC Capital and REPL (EPC Developer) USD75 mn ndash SMC IM Capital- Arthveda USD250 mn ndash Affordable Low and Middle Income Fund- Indiabulls Housing Finance USD224 mn ndashDual Advantage Commercial Assets Fund- Reliance Capital USD150 mn ndash Reliance Rental Yield Fund

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 222

Financing Developments Trends in Foreign Investments

Foreign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics

2014 2015 2016 2017

Num

ber a

nd V

alue o

f Dea

lsKe

y Dea

ls A

nnou

ncem

ents

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashUnitech USD349 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash Nirlon USD225 mn

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Infinity Techno Park USD108 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndashParanjape Schemes Construction USD100 mn

bull Fund raising

- CPPIB (Canada)USD500 mn

- Hines (US) USD250 mn

bull Blackstone (US) ndash Alpha G Corp USD302 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF (Residential) USD300 mn

bull Warburg Pincus (US) ndashPiramal Realty USD284 mn

bull Goldman Sachs (US) ndash Nitesh Estates USD300 mn

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashHiranandani USD1000 mn

bull APG Asset Management (Netherlands) ndash Godrej Properties USD275 mn

bull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Phoenix Mills USD250 mn

bull Xander APG Asset Management ndash Virtuous Retail South Asia USD109 mn

bull Fund raising

- Xander USD400 mn

- Macquarie USD500 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF USD1800 mn for 40 stake in rental business across office and retail assets Talks began with 25 prospective buyer and narrowed down to Blackstone and GIC

bull Blackstone (US) ndash K Raheja Corp USD250 mn for 20 mn square feet office spacebull CDPQ (Canada) ndash Piramal Enterprises USD250 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Arshiya USD83 mn for six warehousesbull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Indospace Formed a USD1200 mn JV to acquire and develop

logistics facilities in India JV shall acquire 13 industrial and logistics projects totalling 14 mn square feet from current funds

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Firstspace Realty Formed a JV to invest USD500-600 mn to develop 15 mn square feet logistics and industrial facilities

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Shriram Group US$350 mn for SEZ looking for offices in Tier 1 cities

bull KKR (US) ndash Signature Global USD32 mn to develop affordable housing

Based on data till June 2017

965

30813164

1396

3422 26

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 11x of 1Q16

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 223

Financing Developments Debt position of leading developers

Debt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default

Source SampP Capital IQ NRI Analysis

799

284

333

408

472

493

518

614

1235

3548

Developer Debt Position

Developer Name Total Debt Dec16 (USD mn)

Increase FY16 to Dec16

Increase FY15 to FY16

Interest Coverage Ratio

-13

35

-11

24

-12

0

-52

-9

-2

-19

4

-12

38

-12

8

0

1

-13

3

21

108

091

267

251

149

017

084

163

146

292

Note Total 10 players mentioned above account for 78 of the total debt of listed real estate players in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 224

Financing Developments Debt ndash Trends in NPAs of Banking System

Due to project loan default by developers non-performing assets of banks are increasing Government has increased pace to resolve NPA issue Global PE investors seem keen to capitalize on this opportunistic

2012 - 2014 2015 2016 2017

Key

Eve

nts

NPA

Rat

io

bull Aug-Nov 2015 RBI conducted Asset Quality Review -AQR of bank books to ensure NPAs are correctly recognized

bull Large portion of stressed loans accumulated due to default by large Indian companies

bull Banks delayed the NPA bad loan recognition to show good performance

GNPA Ratio Forecast

Forecast as per RBIrsquos lsquoFinancial Stability Reportrsquo December 2016

NPAs in Indian banking system (across sectors) ndash Ratio of Gross Non-Performing Assets to Total Advances

Source Reserve Bank of India ndash lsquoFinancial Stability Report December 2016rsquo Bloomberg Reports Mar 2017 Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both NPA ratio

bull Global PE heavyweights formed JVs to focus on investments in Indian stressed assets

- Brookfield Apollo Global Bain Capital CPPIB CDPQ and JC Flower amp Co

bull Jan-17 RBI announced that is expects NPAs to increase furtherbull May-17 Banking Regulation Act 1949 amended to give RBI more powers

to resolve NPA issue RBI now has the power to give directions to banks in India to initiate insolvency process against debt defaulters

bull Jun-17 RBI identified 12 key defaulters (together account for 25 of the total NPAs) for resolution by initiating insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016)- The lenders to these defaulters shall finalise the resolution plan within six

months failing which insolvency proceedings shall be initiated

30 35 40 4676 91 98 101

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNPA to Total Advances

Sep-16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 225Source Bloomberg Reports Press Articles NRI Analysis

Global PE Firms in Indian Stressed Asset Market

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Global PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets

Glob

al PE

Firm

s Indian Partner

Jul 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Aug 16

Mar 16

Mar 16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 226Source VC Circle Press Articles

Recent Announcements (Illustrative List)

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Major global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets

Investor Target Seller Partner

Estimated DealValue (US$ mn)

Asset-Type

Office Residential Retail Others

Ascendas Arshiya Ltd 83 Six warehouses near Mumbai (Western India)

CPPIB IndoSpace 1200 JV to acquire 13 logistics assets (14 mn sqft)

GIC DLF - DCCDL 1800 GIC Singapore announced intention to purchase 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business DCCDL (DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd) (Across India)

KKR Signature Global

31 Affordable housing projects in Gurgaon(Northern India)

Xander Group AdarshDevelopers

20 For projects in Bengaluru area (Southern India)

- - Looking for assets in tier1 cities (Across India)

ShriramGroup

190 SEZ in Chennai (Southern India)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 227

DLF Promoters

DLF Ltd

DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd (DCCDL)

25

Assets and Projects

Assets and Projects

Public

CCPS sale to GIC

Office Retail Land Under-construction Other Assets

75

Proposed Transaction ndash Sale of CCPS held by Promoters of DLF

40 60

Case Study DLF - GIC

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Recently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion

Snapshot

Deal Summarybull Sale of promoter familyrsquos 40 stake in

DCCDLbull Deal value estimated to be US$18 billionbull Funds raised to be used for debt reductionbull Expected to be closed by September 2017

DCCDL Businessbull Assets Offices Retail Landbull Operational portfolio 268 mn sqftbull Development pipeline 67 mn sqft

Source Press Articles NRI Analysis

Cumulative Convertible Preference Shares

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 228

Regulatory Developments

Recent policy initiatives such as RE regulation act GST tax reform and strong steps for resolving bank NPAs are likely to make Indian market attractive for investors

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

RE

Reg

ulat

ion

Anti-

Cor

rupt

ion

Ban

king

Sy

stem

Econ

omic

bull SEBI introduced lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts Regulations 2014rsquo expected to bring greater accountability and reduce frauds and project delays

bull Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Bill 2015 introduced to prohibit illegal ownership transactions

bull Passed RERA -Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

bull RERA becomes effective however some states are yet to comply

bull Some states have diluted the provisions of the central act raising concerns

bull Interest Subsidy Scheme for housing loans for low and middle income groups to promote affordable housing in India

bull Real estate sector impacted by demonetization due to high volume of cash transactions

bull Goods and Service Tax (GST) to become effective from 1 July potentially simplifying the Indian indirect tax structure

bull Benami Act 2016 becomes effective

Source CBRE ndash lsquoIndia Marketflashrsquo Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Indian central bank (RBI) conducted asset quality review (AQR) of banks to ensure NPAs are recognized and provisioned

bull Government relaxed rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in real estate

bull Removed restrictive conditions of minimum area and capitalization amount

bull Demonetization high value currency notes to remove lsquoblack moneyrsquo

bull Government amended Indian banking regulation law to give RBI more powers to resolve NPA issue

bull RBI identified 12 large debt defaulters and instructed banks to push these accounts for insolvency

bull Income Tax department identified 400 transactions for conducting investigations under Benami Act

bull Real estate assets estimated to be worth ~USD80 mn was linked in the transactions

bull Multiple states notified the draft rules and passed the regulations to meet the deadline for compliance ndash 1 May 2017

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both GNPA and NNPA ratios

bull Draft law for indirect tax reform - Goods and Service Tax (GST) released in Public domain in June 2016

bull Constitutional amendment bill passed to facilitate implementation of GST

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 229

Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy Conditions

FDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years howeverrecent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector

Source Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Government of India June 2017

Summary of FDI policy in real estate sector FDI in Real-estate sector (USD bn)

Topic Brief Description

Investment Limit

bull 100 equity allowedbull Automatic authorization route no prior

government approval required

Key Restrictions

bull Construction of farm houses trading in transferable development rights (TDRs) and dealing in land or immovable property

bull Lock-in period of 3 years

Relaxations bull No lock-in period in case of hotels amp resorts hospitals SEZs educational institutions and old age homes

bull Transfer from one non-resident to another non-resident will not be subject to 3 year lock-in period

bull FDI permitted in completed projects for operations and management of townships malls shopping complexes and business centers

Key Implications

bull Will help revive projects that could not receive capital earlier

bull Foreign investors will be able to speed up its investment process

bull Encouraging environment for foreign developers

010

133

011

123

314

166

294

280

218

047

004

072

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2015-16

2014-15

2013-14Multiple corruption cases and political instability led to market downturn

2016-17

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 230

Regulatory Developments ndash Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

Real Estate bill 2016 is a major regulation recently passed by Indian Govt This bill is expected to bring greater accountability and reduce fraud and project delays in this sector

bull Rising population and income has led to an excessive demand for housing in India for the last two decades

bull As a result several firms jumped into the housing development business to capture a share of this booming market

bull In a race to capture demand developers started launching several projects simultaneously by investing consumersrsquo money into buying new land sites

bull Gradually developersrsquo intensity started affecting their cash flows and not just numbers but project sizes became larger

bull This resulted in poor quality construction severe delay in projects completion etc leading to consumersrsquo increasing dissatisfaction legal disputes etc

bull Hence the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Bill 2016 was introduced to re-instate transparency and discipline in the real estate sector and passed in March 2016

Source News Articles

Background Key Provisions of Bill

Boom in residential market

driving new entrants

Race to capture this demand

impacted quality

Lead to consumer dissatisfaction

Scopebull Both commercial and residential assetsbull Developers brokers as well as agentsbull Under-construction projects also covered

Institutional Framework

bull All states to notify guidelines and set up regulatory boards

Fund Utilizationbull 70 of the money collected from the buyers to me maintained i

n an escrow account and to be mandatorily used for the said project

Registrationbull All covered projects need to be registered by the developer withi

n three months of setupbull Online registration facility available

Penaltiesbull In case of violations

ndash Project registrations can be cancelledndash Developerrsquos promoter(s) can be imprisoned

Interest Payments

bull In case of delay in providing possession developer shall pay same interest rate to buyer as the buyer would pay to developer in case of delay in payment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 231

Regulatory Developments ndash Demonetization

Demonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017

Performance of Real-Estate Index

1 Mar 2017

2 Jan

2017

1 Sep 2016

1 Feb 2017

3 Apr

2017

1 Jul 2016

1 Jun

2016

2 May 2016

9314

2 May 2017

256

1 Nov 2016

3 Oct

2016

1 Dec 2016

198

8497

1 Aug 2016

1 Apr

2016

161

7713

Nifty RealtyNifty 50

True impact of demonetization may become clear by the end of 2017 with disclosure of performance by developers

The Nifty Realty (real estate index) has been moving in line with the broader Nifty 50 index

Indices Trading at all time high

Demonetization 8 Nov 2016 caused an immediate but short-term correction

Source wwwinvestingcom NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 232

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 233

Office space demand in 2017 is expected to remain similar to 2016 however developers are making new launches in anticipation of demand growth post 2017

Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndAb

sorp

tion

Vaca

ncy

and

Ren

tal R

ate

106

195186153

190176 205204226183199180

2H20161H2015 1H20161H2014 2H2014 2H2015

AbsorptionNew Supply(in million sq ft)

Over the past 3 years developerrsquos cautious approach and improved economic sentiments have kept demand for office space more than the new supplyhellip

hellip this demand surplus has led to positive movement in vacancy rates and rental rates across key office space markets in India

New Supplybull Estimated to be ~30 more than

in 2016 with Bengaluru and Hyderabad being the biggest contributors

Absorptionbull Estimated to witness modest

~2 increase with Bengaluru and Delhi-NCR being the key markets

Vacancy Ratesbull Expected to improve across key

cities with the exception of Delhi-NCR and Kolkata

Rental Ratesbull Expected to improve across all

key cities with Hyderabad Delhi-NCR and Kolkata outperforming rental growth of 2016

183 174 166 156 150 135

88 92 98103 111 119

177 189 185 167 186 197

73 75 78 81 86 94

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Vacancy Rate Delhi - NCR Rental Mumbai Rental Bengaluru Rental

(Rental rate in USD per square metre per month)

Source Colliers ndash lsquoIndia Office Market Overviewrsquo Jan 2017 Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai and Hyderabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Supertech Plans to invest ~USD115 mn to develop 25 mn square feet of retail and commercial space in Delhi-NCR region

bull Lodha Group Set-up a business vertical to focus on development of commercial assets (office retail and logistics) with a target of USD1 billion AUM by 2021

bull ldquoDemand for office space is expected to remain constant in 2017 hellip The expected take up from ITITeS companies may see reduced proportionhelliprdquo - Anshul Jain Country Head Cushman amp Wakefield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 234

Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal Size

The ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad

9

21

57 60

39

51

173

912

16

21

32 34

84

22

2342 42

26 24 23

5

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

ITITES BFSI Manufacturing Other Services

16000 19000

54000

39000

20000

30000

25300

29000

50000 51000

24500

20000

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

H1 2016 H1 2017

Source India real estate residential and office January - June 2017 Knight Frank

Sector-wise Transactions Split (H1 2017) Deal Size Analysis (Sq ft)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 235

Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costs

New Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list

Prime office space occupancy costs in US$ per sq ft per annum

Source June 2017 Global Prime Office Occupancy Costs CBRE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q12017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 236

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 237

Since 1Q 2017 residential segment has started displaying signs of recovery encouraging developers such as Lodha and Supertech to commit large investments

Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

A 2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndSa

les

Cap

ital V

alue

Source Liases Foras Real Estate Rating amp Research Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

71100

123112149160

107131138123136135

1H20161H2015 2H2015 2H20161H2014 2H2014

SalesNew Launches(in lsquo000 units)

To compensate for the low residential demand developers have reduced new launcheshellip

hellip this has helped reduce the unsold inventory level and supported capital value growth in key markets except Delhi-NCR

1Q 2017 - Sales

bull Most key city markets have saw declining sales on annual and half-yearly basis

bull However on a QoQ all cities saw sales improvement except Bengaluru where sales declined further by ~8 on QoQ basis

1Q 2017 ndash Price

bull Capital values have continue improve by 3-5 in most key markets

bull However cities like Delhi-NCR Kolkata and Pune have witnessed marginal price correction of around 1-3

709 716 731 747 695 693

1185 1252 1282 1284 1298 1324

717 735 746 767 771 791

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Delhi - NCR Price Mumbai Price Bengaluru Price

(Price in USD per square metre)

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata and Ahmedabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Lodha Group Plans to invest ~USD650 mn during 2017-18 to enhance deliveries of residential projects and launch 8-9 new projects

bull Supertech Shall invest ~USD380 mn to complete 15000 housing units in 2017-18 Also it plans to invest ~USD525-600 mn for launching affordable housing projects of 40000 units

bull Shapoorji Pallonji Plans to launch around 12 residential projects during Aprrsquo17 to Decrsquo18 Currently this is the biggest development plan in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 238

Residential Space ndash Supply Trends

Mumbai amp Bengaluru dominate the new residential apartment supply In 1Q17 most of the new launches have been in the economy segment (INR 2000-3000 per sqft) range across India

16 127

22

13 24

6

7

10

23

24

28

12

12

145

8

487

38 11

7

H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017

Perc

enta

ge s

har

e o

f new

lau

nches

Time (Yearly)

Delhi-NCR Mumbai Chennai Bengaluru

Kolkata Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune

Source Knight Frank

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

Price Category Wise Launches (INR Per square ft)

Less than 2000 2000 - 3000 3000 - 40004000 - 5000 5000 - 7500 7500 - 1000010000 - 15000 More than 15000

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

~106900 ~74000 ~67500

New Residential Apartment Supply Trends Composition of New Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 239

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 240

Retail Space ndash Overall Outlook

The retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes

201 204 238

278 321

368 425

518 490

600 672

1300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Time (Years)

Source Indian Brand Equity Foundation July 2017

92 8776

8 1324

2015 2019E 2020E

Unorganized Organized

bull Currently India has over 15 million Mom and Pop stores (unorganized retail)

bull From FY09 - FY13 organised retail in India has witnessed a CAGR of 19-20

Retail Market Size (US$ Billion) Type of Retail Market in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 241

Retail space demand has remained stagnant across major markets as a result of domestic consumption slump caused by demonetization but is expected to recover in this year

Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

New Supplybull 2017 is likely to see the highest mall space

becoming operational second to 2011 bull High levels of activity are expected 2017

onwards after a prolonged slowdown from 2014 that lasted through 2016

Absorptionbull The domestic consumption story was

impacted by demonetization in the last two months of 2016

bull Business is expected to normalize from 2Q17

Vacancy Ratesbull Indiarsquos overall vacancy rate is expected to

rise on account of new future supplybull The good malls have done well

Rental Ratesbull Rental rates across major retail markets

have remained stable for last 1 year on account of sluggish business activity

65 69

138

4157

13

36

-03

77

106

4542 40

107

45 51

16

33 27

56

79

42

00

50

100

150

200

250

-20

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Com

plet

ions

Ab

sorp

tion

(Mill

ion

Sq F

t)

New Completions Net Absorption Vacancy

Supply Net Absorption and Vacancy of Retail Space in India

441 438 438 438 376

398 397 397

194 213 213 213

2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017

Delhi - NCR Mumbai Bengaluru

(Rental rate in INR per square metre per month)

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 242

Retail Space ndash Mall

Vacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018

Construction Status of Future Supply of Retail Malls (2017- 2019)

48

18

52

68

11

47

3

31

22

2017F 2018F 2019FProposed Excavation Upto Plinth

Less than 50 Structure Readuy 50-100 Structure Ready

Ready for fit-outs

bull In terms of supply 2017 appears to be a strong year with over 77million sq ft of net supply expected to come on stream

bull The good malls are witnessing moderate to good pre-commitmentlevels ranging between 51-75 whereas the average malls areseeing poor pre-commitments of 0-50

bull Key retail completions lined up for 2017 include the RMZ Mall inBengaluru Seawoods Grand Central in Mumbai Palladium Mall inChennai ICC Mall in Pune DLF Mall and Wave Hub Mall in NCRDelhi

bull Of the total retail supply expected in 2017 48 is in the ready forfit-outs stage while 52 is in the 50-100 structure ready stage

bull By end 2017 NCR Delhi will have a Grade A retail stock of 274million sq ft while Mumbai is expected to have a stock of 191million sq ft for Grade A retail space

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 243

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 244

Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist Destination

The travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally

Source Ministry of Tourism India

Indiarsquos Position in the World By Industry Competitiveness 40th By Air transport

Infrastructure 32nd By Price competitiveness 10th

Source Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017

527 563 669 748

865 1045

1143 1290

1432 1614

13 14 14

18 19

18 20

23

23

25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f tou

rist a

rriv

als

(mill

ions

)

Time (Years)Domestic Foreign

Domestic and Foreign Tourist Arrivals Top cities in Foreign Tourist Arrivals by Air in July 2017

GKCNew Delhi

41

Mumbai21

Chennai9

Bengluru8

Kochi7

Others15

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 245

Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming Inventory

Although hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2015

Growth of Room Supply - India

249050

1122840

1464850

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2000-01 2014-15 2019-20

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Brand Inventory across Select Asia Pacific Cities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 246

Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory Trends

Delhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities

Hotel Rooms Statistics across major cities in 2016

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Hotel Class Definition in India (as per Industry)

Star Rating 5 Star 5 Star 4-5 Star 3-4 Star 2 Star or less

Room size gt=38 gt=38 35-38 25-35 lt25

Restaurant gt=3 gt=3 1-2 1-2 Only 1

BarLounge gt=2 1-2 Only 1 Only 1 1 or none

Swimming Pool Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Gym Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Spa Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Concierge Service

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Nomandate

Branded Toiletries

Yes Yes No No No

TrademarkedBeds

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

Interior Quality Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Num

ber o

f roo

ms

Existing Supply (Rooms) Proposed Supply (Rooms)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 247

Hospitality Space ndash Supply Trends

Average room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy

Average Room Rate (US$) across Major Cities

106

61

8879

107102

89

112

7478

94

118

63

950

590

830

730

96 96

81

109

72 75

87

113

61

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 248

Hospitality Space ndash Demand Trends

Occupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year

Occupancy Rate across Major Cities

615

539

581589

617 611

480

697

571

545

678

718

613

571

549

662

627

667 667

509

707

581

609

685

743

657

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 249

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 250

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 251

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 real GDP (constant 2010 USD) accounted for 16 USD trillion showing zero percent Y-o-Y growth compared to -3 in 2015

For 2018 and 2019 GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 17 (World Bank)

Russian economy recession is slowing down with real GDP growth of 0 in 2016

GDP(constant 2010 USD) GDP per capita (constant 2010 USD)

Source World Bank

-10-8-6-4-20246810

00020406081012141618

USD

trilli

on

GDP (constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

-10-8-6-4-20246810

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

USD

GDP per capita(constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 252

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 population of Russia accounted for 1443 million people with 107 million living in urban areas Over the part 10 year share of urban population has grown by 06

Almost 74 of the population live in urban areas and this share is slowly growing

-05

-04

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

milli

on p

eopl

e

Population(million people) Y-o-Y growth

Population million people

Source World Bank

730

732

734

736

738

740

742

Urban population share

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 253

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2015 consumer price index recorded 129 amid RUB depreciation However due to RUB exchange rate stabilization inflation slowed down in 2016 to 54

After significant growth in 2015 inflation was stabilized in 2016 to a manageable level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

RU

RU

SD

RURUSD exchange rate

Source World Bank

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Rosstat

CPI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 254

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 value of mortgage loans accounted increased to 14 RUB trillion (800 thousand loans) The government pursues to increase number of mortgage loans up to 1200 loans by 2020

The mortgage loan market enjoys a strong recovery after decline in 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

- 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(asof Nov)

Thou

sand

uni

ts

RU

B Bi

llion

Mortgage loans value(RUB billion)

Numbe of mortagge loans issued (thousand units)

116

118

12

122

124

126

128

13

132

134

136

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Central Bank of Russia

Mortgage rate Mortgage loans issued (volume and value)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 255

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 256

Residential Market

Russian government is looking to improve the living standards of its citizens and upgrade the quality of urban environment by several stimulation programs

The Moscow housing

renovation program

The Mortgage and rental housing

priority project

ldquoThe Moscow housing renovation programrdquo is aimed at resettlement and demolition of a dilapidated low-rise housing stock built in 1957-1968 and at the new construction in the liberated territory it was submitted on September 26 2017 by the mayor of Moscow Duration of 15-20 years Total financing of 400 RUB billion 6 ml people to be resettled Over 25 ml m2 of residential property to be resettled and demolished (5177 houses = ~10 of total

residential area of Moscow) Similar programs will be potentially extended to other regions of Russia

The main objective of the Mortgage and rental housing priority project is to improve the living conditions of Russian citizens by Ensuring high rates of housing commissioning (goal - commissioning of 88 ml m2 of residential

space in 2018 100 ml m2 of residential space in 2020) Demand stimulation (issuance of 1 ml mortgage loans in 2018 12 ml mortgage loans in 2020)

Basic approaches of achieving the goals of the housing conditions improvement are ensuring high rates of construction of high-quality comfortable and affordable housing by including

inefficiently used federal regional and municipal lands as well as financing the construction of infrastructure as part of integrated development projects

increasing the availability of mortgage loans and reduce financial risks by forming a liquid market for mortgage securities introducing electronic bonds and the worlds best practices for disclosing information

implementation of pilot projects of specialized rental housing by using collective investment mechanisms and developing proposals for the further development of the rental market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 257

Residential Market

Demand in primary housing market significantly increased while growth in secondary market remain modest

In 2016 the number of contracts in primary housing market (new houses) increased by 80 in comparison with 2015

Secondary housing market grew only by 86

Source Konti

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

thou

sand

con

tract

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

thou

sand

con

tract

s

Number of contracts in Moscow secondary housing market(~existing homes)

Number of contracts in Moscow primary housing market(~new homes)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 258

Residential Market

Supply of new houses in Moscow declined in 2016 due to low demand in the previous year

1971 2110

3050 31463342

3920

3385

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

sq

m

46543

33091

22825 23587

4255146352 46080

56171

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

units

Source Rosstat

Commissioned living space in Moscow Number of commissioned flats in Moscow

In 2016 constructed living space accounted for 3385 thousand sq m which is 14 lower as compared with 2015 Decline can be explained by the fact that in 2015 supply outweighed demand by far

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 259

Residential Market

In 4Q 2016 average price of new residential housing accounted for 155 thousand RUBsq m which is approx 15 lower as compared with the same period of the previous year

Average price in secondary housing market declined by 4 (1809 thousand RUB sq m)

Average price growth in both primary and secondary Moscow residential market remain negative

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

thou

sand

RU

Bsq

m

Source Rosstat

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

thou

sand

RU

B sq

m

Average price of primary housing in Moscow Average price of secondary housing in Moscow

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 260

Residential Market

Supply of new housing in 2016 and average price in Moscow very depending on administrative district

District Average price(RUB per sq m) as of Dec 2016

Supply share as of Dec 2016

1 Central Administrative District 250900 12

2 Northern Administrative District 166800 13

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 168100 12

4 Eastern Administrative District 200300 8

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 145400 9

6 Southern Administrative District 179000 11

7 South-Western Administrative District 173400 8

8 Western Administrative District 212900 12

9 North-Western Administrative District 238900 18

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 88100 1

Source Blackwood

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 261

Residential Market

Backup information population of Moscow

District Population people

1 Central Administrative District 768280

2 Northern Administrative District 1158528

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 1413739

4 Eastern Administrative District 1505801

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 1380668

6 Southern Administrative District 1774351

7 South-Western Administrative District 1426227

8 Western Administrative District 1362701

9 North-Western Administrative District 988423

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 237897

1118711282

11504

1177711857

1198012108

1219812330

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Population by district as of 2016Population of Moscow thousand people

Source Rosstat Source City Population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 262

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 263

Office Market

In 2016 construction of offices fell to 313 thousand sq m which is the lowest figure over the past decade Total stock of offices accounted for 17 thousand sq m

Construction of offices has shown negative growth since 2014

Source Colliers

Total stock in Moscow

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total area of office completions in Moscow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 264

Office Market

Demand has showed negative growth in Moscow office market since 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total take-up in Moscow thousand sq m

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Source Colliers

Vacancy rate

The annual transaction volume in Moscow accounted for 850000 sq m (115 decline ) Vacancy rate for A class offices fell to by nearly 7 while B class vacancy rate remained the same

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 265

Office Market

Backup information take-up structure in Moscow

24

16

109

9

5

5

4

332

1

9

Manufacturing

Professional services

Public

Retail

IT amp Telecoms

EnergyIndustrial

Pharmacy and life science

Banking Insurance ampInvestmentConstruction anddevelopmentAutomative

Media

Vehicles Transport ampLogisticsOther

Take-up structure by sector in 2015Take-up structure by type of deal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

rent sale

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 266

Office Market

Average rental rate in USD significantly declined in 2015 due to local currency devaluation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Average rental rate USD sq m per annum in Moscow

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 267

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 268

Retail Market

Backup information total stock in Moscow and Russia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Total stock in Moscow thousand sq m Total stock in Russia thousand sq m

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 269

Retail Market

In 2016 construction of shopping centers in Moscow fell by nearly 32 to 424 thousand sq m The decline in figures for the whole country accounted for 14

Construction of shopping center has been declining since 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Source Colliers

Completion (GLA) in Moscow thousand sq m Completion (GLA) in Russia thousand sq m

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 270

Retail Market

Despite current economic condition in 2015 number of brands entered the Moscow market still far outweighs number of brands that left

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

International brands left Moscow market

International brands enterd Moscow market

Number of international brands entered Moscow market units

Source Colliers

53

22

8

17

Fashion Children goods Catering Other

Structure of brands entering Moscow in 2015

In 2015 36 new international brands entered the Moscow market while 11 announced to leave

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 271

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 272

Hotel Market

Hotel supply has been staying at the nearly the same level since 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

hote

ls u

nits

room

s u

nits

Number of rooms Number of hotels

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

num

ber o

f hot

els

room

sun

its

Number of rooms Number of hotels

Source Rosstat

Supply of hotels in Moscow Supply of hotels in Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 273

Hotel Market

Number of overnight stays in hotels also has not faced significant changes

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source Rosstat

Number of stays in hotels Moscow Number of stays in hotels Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 274

Hotel Market

As of 2016 year nearly 15000 rooms are managed by international hotel operators in the Moscow market The reawakening of Russian and international hotel chains in 2016-2017 is based heavily on the forthcoming FIFA

World

The Moscow hotel market is dominated by optimistic moods - despite tough economic conditions hoteliers noted that demand has grown since 2015

Indicator 2015 2016

Total supply of hotels managed by international operators

52 58

Number of rooms managed by international hotel operators

13 723 14 942

Average price of a sold room (ADR) Rublesday 7 245 7 815

Yield per room (RevPAR) Rublesday 4 890 5 650

Occupancy rate 675 723

Tourist flow million people 171 175

22

18

15

14

7

6

6

48

AccorHotels

InterContinental HotelsGroupCarlson Rezidor HotelGroupMarriott International

Best Western

Starwood Hotels andResorts WorldwideHilton Worldwide

AZIMUT Hotels

Others

Source Colliers

Key indicators of Moscow hotel marketMajor international hotel operators in 2016 of numbers of rooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 275

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 276

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 277

1 Macro Economy

The United States of America can be divided into 4 regions

The 4 regions of the USA include Northeast Midwest South and West

Source) US Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

Northeast South Midwest West

New York Boston Dallas Houston Chicago DetroitLos Angeles

SeattleSan

Francisco

Population ndash Ppl(2016)

8537673 673184 1317929 2303482 2704958 672795 3976322 704352 870887

GDP ndash $M USD(2016)

1657457 422660 511606 478618 651222 252691 1001677 330409 470529

Northeast Midwest

WestSouth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 278

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

Cal

iforn

iaW

ashi

ngto

nA

rizo

naC

olo

rado

Ore

gon

Uta

hN

evad

aN

ew M

exic

oId

aho

Haw

aii

Mont

ana

Ala

ska

Wyo

min

gTex

asFlo

rida

Georg

iaN

ort

h C

arolin

aV

irgi

nia

Ten

ness

eeM

aryl

and

South

Car

olin

aA

laba

ma

Loui

sian

aKen

tuck

yO

klah

om

aM

issi

ssip

piA

rkan

sas

Wes

t V

irgi

nia

Del

awar

eD

istr

ict

of C

olu

mbi

aN

ew Y

ork

Pen

nsyl

vania

New

Jer

sey

Mas

sachu

sett

sC

onn

ect

icut

New

Ham

pshi

reM

aine

Rho

de Isl

and

Ver

mont

Illin

ois

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Mis

sour

iW

isco

nsin

Min

neso

taIo

wa

Kan

sas

Neb

rask

aSouth

Dak

ota

1 Macro Economy

The population of California is 392 million Texas 278 million Florida 206 million New York 197 million and Illinois 128 million

Regarding the state-wise population California is the most populous state followed by Texas Florida New York and Illinois

Source) USCensus Bureau

State-wise population (2016)

NortheastSouthWest Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 279

1 Macro Economy

Among the top 20 cities in terms of population 6 belong to Texas The 5 cities that had their annual growth rate more than 2 after 2010 are as follows

Austin Texas 254 Seattle Washington 241 Denver Colorado 234 Fort Worth Texas 222 Charlotte North Carolina 221

In the metropolitan cities the population of New York and Los Angeles exceeds 30 millionAmong the top 20 cities in terms of population the annual growth rate of 5 cities exceeds 2 after 2010

Population (Top 20 Cities 2016)

Source) US Census Bureau

07 08

00

1518

04

19

1216

12

25

11 13 14

07

22 2224 23

08

00051015202530

-

3000000

6000000

9000000

Population (left) CAGR from 2010 to 2016 (right)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 280

1 Macro Economy

The real GDP was increased by 88 from $156 trillion in Q3 2013 to $170 trillion in Q2 2017 The real estate business grew by 27 in the most recent quarter and became the main driver of economic growth

The US real GDP has been continuously growing for the past 4 years (except Q1 2014)

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

($ billion)

Trends of real GDP Trends of GDP growth rate

Billions of chained (2009) dollars ()

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 281

Regarding the state-wise real GDP California has the highest real GDP of $25 trillion followed by Texas and New York with approximately $15 trillion However the other states have their real GDP below $1 trillion

1 Macro Economy

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

State-wise real GDP (Top 20 states Q1 2017)

($ billion)

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Millions of chained (2009) dollars

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 282

1 Macro Economy

Especially the growth rate of southern states including Texas and New Mexico was relatively high

The real GDP of 43 states and the District of Columbia grew between 2015 and 2016

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP growth by states (2015 -2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 283

1 Macro Economy

The rate of unemployment is suddenly increased after collapsing the Dotcom bubble and the Lehman shock After October 2009 it turns to decrease

In August 2017 the unemployment rate is 44 and the number of unemployed is 71 million

The unemployment rate recorded in June 2017 was 43 which was the lowest in the past 20 years

Source) US Bureau of Labor Statistics

43

63

100

44

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Lehman shock

Dotcom bubble

collapse

Unemployment rate (1997 to 2007)

()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 284

Through blockchain technology all involved parties can have a copy of the original data record allowing near-real time data record access and updates safe from tampering

The US commercial real estate market has a particular interest in the following benefits Listing Management ndash To effectively manage real estate listing data of any property in the world Secure Data Exchange ndash To securely manage data of tenant owners etc Efficient Contracting ndash To speed up exchange of data contract etc

The US market has been slowly exploring blockchain technology for commercial real estate applications

Users Data Record

Blockchain in Real Estate Overview

Blockchain

Listing Management

Secure Data Exchange

Efficient Contracting

Blockchain

Blockchain

Blockchain

1 Macro Economy

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 285

Through smart contracts blockchain technology can revolutionize how commercial real estate market parties contract

1 Macro Economy

Smart Contract Timeline Overview

Smart contracts are applications to securely execute contractual terms between involved parties through blockchain technology

Tenant Landlord Tenant Tenant Landlord

bull Tenant and landlord sign smart contract to initiate lease agreement

bull Agreement includes rental value payment terms and party details

bull Smart contract will start to enforce payment terms thus initiating lease payments from tenant to landlord

bull Upon termination of lease contract contract returns the security deposit payment to the tenant after adjustments for damages

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Landlord

Pre-Lease During Lease Post-Lease

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 286

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 287

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The most recent commercial real estate price is far larger than the previous highest of 2007Although the price continued to increase after the Lehman shock it is at peak in 2016 second half

1269

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Trends of Commercial real estate price (Commercial Property Price Index)

Source) Green Street AdvisorsMainly the prime commercial properties (real estate) were targeted

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 288

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The total amount of transactions was increased in all sectors between 2014 and 2015In 2016 only the number of apartments was increased the other real estates were declined

116

130

89

51

36

153 151

90 78

50

159

143

76

59

36

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Apartments Office Retail Industrial Hotel

2014 2015 2016

($ bil)

Trends in Transaction amount of commercial real estates (including transactions equal to or more than 25 billion)

Source) Colliers International

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 289

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

00

10

20

30

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

米国10年国債利回り(左軸) 米国REIT価格指数(右軸)

2 Real Estate Investment Market

If the future interest rates will rise the REIT price would fall in the short term Then it will rise in the medium and long term

Trends in Cap rate of main sectors

Source) NAREIT Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

REIT price index has been calculated based on FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Total Index

20134-20138Yield on the government bonds +11 pointsREIT -13

20151-20156Yield on the government bonds +07 pointsREIT -11

20167-201611Yield on the government bonds +09 pointsREIT -12

Yield on 10-year government bonds (Left axis)

USArsquos REIT price index (Right axis)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 290

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 291

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Regarding the residential market of the USA houses which were built for sale purpose accounted for 50 custom houses accounted for 15 and rental apartments that have increasingly become common in recent years accounted for 30

Trends of Residential market structure in Japan

1 Existing housing stock data pertains to FY 20132 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor and field supervisor There are three types of construction methods 1) The landlord

takes the responsibility for partial construction and asks a local contractor for the remaining construction 2) The landlord gives the task of entire construction to a local contractor 3) The landlord undertakes the entire construction work(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the landlord When the landlords construct on their own partial work of construction is given to a local contractor)

3 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor The local contractor is hired as the field supervisor and landlord does not construct at all These also include houses used for rental purpose (example temporary house of a clergyman)(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the local contractor)

Unit 10000 houses Japan Unit 10000 houses US

Number of new housing starts

967 (100) Starts by Purpose 1174 (100)

Owner-occupied houses (custom houses)

292 (30)Owner built2 49 (4)

Contractor built3 116 (10)

Sale in lots 251 (26) Built for sale 607 (52)

Detached houses 134 (14)Single-familyUnits

579 (49)

Mansions 117 (12)Building with 2units or more

28 (2)

Houses on lease (including those received as allowance)

424 (44) Built for rent 402 (34)

Existing housing stock 169 (17) Used house sales 549 (468)

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 292

In 2016 rental housing constructions were less than the preceding year

The number of detached housing construction sharply declined after reaching its peak in 2005However after hitting its lowest level in 2011 the situation became improved In parallel rental housing construction has also been growing

Trends of New housing constructions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 unit Built for sale

1 unit Contractor-built

1 unit Owner-built

2+ units For sale

2+ unitsFor rent

(Thousands)

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 293

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Less than 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

1995 2005 2015

For 10 years after 2005 the rate of house-owners who are the 25-44 year-old people had significantly declined With the decrease of houses owned by the young generation the demand for rental houses rapidly increased

Age-wise housing acquisition rate

-5 points

-10points

-10 points

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 294

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

After the Lehman shock the southern and western regions started recovering and restored to their status as in the 1990s However the midwest and north-eastern regions remained the same

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

Trends of new housing constructions (Detached houses)

(Thousands)

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 295

-

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Texa

sFl

orid

aN

orth

Car

olin

aG

eorg

iaSo

uth

Car

olin

aTe

nnes

see

Virg

inia

Loui

sian

aAl

abam

aM

aryl

and

Okl

ahom

aKe

ntuc

kyAr

kans

asM

issi

ssip

piD

elaw

are

Wes

t Virg

inia

Dis

trict

of C

olum

bia

Cal

iforn

iaAr

izon

aW

ashi

ngto

nC

olor

ado

Uta

hN

evad

aO

rego

nId

aho

New

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Haw

aii

Wyo

min

gAl

aska

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Min

neso

taM

isso

uri

Wis

cons

inIll

inoi

sIo

wa

Kans

asN

ebra

ska

Sout

h D

akot

aN

orth

Dak

ota

Penn

sylv

ania

New

Yor

kN

ew J

erse

yM

assa

chus

etts

Mai

neN

ew H

amps

hire

Con

nect

icut

Verm

ont

Rho

de Is

land

Texas and Florida in the southern region stood out with the maximum number of approvals for the construction of detached houses In looking at the other regions California had more than 50000 approvals but the rest had 30000 or less

NortheastSouth West Midwest

State-wise number of Approvals for new housing constructions (Detached houses 2016)

(Number of approvals)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 296

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

San Jose

San Francisco

Honolulu

San Diego

Los Angeles

Houston

Dallas

Atlanta

Phoenix

Washington

Seattle

New YorkDenver

BostonPortland

In the metropolitan areas in south such as Texas have a great number of new housing constructions while cities with high residential prices are concentrated in California

Main southern cities

Main cities in California

Other mature cities in the entire USA

City-wise Residential prices and Approvals for new housing constructions (2016)

Prices of detached houses (in thousand dollars)

Num

ber o

f appro

vals for d

etac

hed h

ouse

starts

Source US Census Bureau National Association of Realtors

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 297

The number of rental housing constructions was suddenly increasing after 2009 but the number constructions was decreasing after 2015 except for the western region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

(Thousands)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 298Source) US Census Bureau

The calculation has been done based on the running average of data for all the four quarters

Trends in percentage of owner-occupied houses Trends in Percentage of vacant houses

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

The rate of owned houses and vacant houses continued to decrease together but this fall came to the end in 2016

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 20170 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 299

There is no any significant change in the trends of most recent rents

Trends of region-wise rent (Median)

($)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

西部

北東部

南部

中西部

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

West

Northeast

South

Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 300

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

Source US Census Bureau

Number of new housing starts

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The Seattle metropolitan area includes 3 counties ndash Snohomish King and Pierce

After the Lehman shock many large-scale apartments were constructed in the Seattle metropolitan area (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA)

(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 301

The average price of detached houses is about $500000 With land prices the cost of construction is also sharply risen

Year Land HomeValue

Structure Cost Land Value

2000 $278695 $112257 $166438 5972001 $292826 $119354 $173471 5922002 $303519 $121947 $181572 5982003 $323773 $125821 $197952 6112004 $359056 $141585 $217471 6062005 $424912 $152219 $272692 6422006 $479951 $163874 $316077 6592007 $488499 $172756 $315744 6462008 $431855 $186623 $245231 5682009 $387317 $191347 $195970 5062010 $368625 $194053 $174572 4742011 $346949 $204023 $142926 4122012 $372227 $207086 $165142 4442013 $419730 $215593 $204137 4862014 $446107 $233255 $212852 4772015 $488054 $236426 $251628 516

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Q4 data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 302

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

Regarding the Seattlersquos local residential market more than 50 of the houses are apartments In the suburbs the number of detached houses and apartments are almost same

Source US Census Bureau

Figure showing the Seattle city and the surrounding areasNumber of approvals for housing starts in Areas surrounding

the Seattle city (King County) (2016)

Other areas refer to the total number of cities in the King Country

SeattleBellevue

Redmond

Other area

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Other areas

Redmond

Bellevue

Seattle

1-unit 2-units and up (House)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 303

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The vacancy rate of rental houses is rapidly decreasing which is less than 3 in the all metropolitan areas In the post-2014 the standard rent of Seattle was significantly higher than the average rent of metropolitan areas

Trends of Vacancy rate Trends of Rent (Median)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

$400

$600

$800

$1000

$1200

$1400

$1600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

0~

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 304

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The number of new housing constructions (including both detached houses and apartments) in the Dallas metropolitan area (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA) showed recovery with more than 25000 constructions

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

0

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 305

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The average price of detached houses is $250000The cost of construction is dramatically rising accounting for 70 of the home value

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Year Land ShareHome Value Structure

Cost Land Value

2000 $173678 $92517 $81161 467

2001 $182559 $98406 $84154 461

2002 $186525 $100648 $85877 460

2003 $187431 $104288 $83143 444

2004 $190797 $116052 $74745 392

2005 $199596 $124130 $75466 378

2006 $202951 $132730 $70221 346

2007 $200595 $139192 $61403 306

2008 $193454 $150854 $42599 220

2009 $196089 $150857 $45232 231

2010 $189138 $153876 $35263 186

2011 $187611 $161438 $26173 140

2012 $198238 $163952 $34286 173

2013 $218014 $169417 $48597 223

2014 $234604 $182252 $52352 223

2015 $256583 $236426 $72860 284

Q4 data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 306

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the cities such as Dallas Fort Worth Frisco and McKinney a large number of detached houses and apartments are constructed In particular the surrounding areas of Dallas have mainly apartments whereas the northern region mainly has detached houses

Main cities in the suburbs of Dallas Number of approvals for housing starts in main cities (2016)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Detached houses

+ Apartments

FortWorth

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Celina

Prosper

Little Elm

Irving

Farmers Branch

Carrollton

Garland

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Farmers Branch

Garland

Carrollton

Irving

Prosper town

Celina

Little Elm

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Fort Worth

1-unit 2-units and up

Mainly detached houses

Mainly apartments

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 307

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the northern part of Dallas there are successive expansions and relocations of offices of large companies The increase in employment depends on the increase in population

Large-scale offices recently relocated to areas surrounding the Fresco city

Source Plano Economic Development

Company name ServiceYear of

completionNumber of employees

Capital One Finance Headquarter 2017 5500

JP Morgan Chase amp CoUnder

construction6000

NTT DataNorth America

HQ2017 2250

West Plano

submarket

Frisco

Location of each city

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 308

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 309

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

4 Office market

Since the 2008 global financial crisis US employment has been recovering quickly

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

US unemployment rate is lower than it had been a decade ago before the financial crisis consequently leading to an increase in those in the US workforce

US Unemployment Rate US Employees

Rate ()

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

Employees(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 310

4 Office market

The US has also witnessed a rise in the number of new established companies thus presenting new opportunities for office real estate market

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

Each year the number of established companies less than 1 year old or newly established companies has been rising since the financial crisis

Corporate Establishments Less than 1 Year Old

400

500

600

700

800

No of Established Co(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 311

Among New York Houston Chicago and San Francisco Houston is the only city headed downwards in GDP

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

4 Office market

Certain cities in the US have shown comparably noticeable traits of market opportunities

New York

Houston

Chicago

San Francisco

GDP ndash New York Houston Chicago San Francisco

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP($B USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 312

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 313

5 Hotel market

With the increasing number of trips the US hotel industry will soon face the need for more lodging space

Source) US Travel Association

The number of people traveling is increasing eventually requiring more accommodation spaces The number of domestic travels within the US is far higher than the number of international travels to the US

Travels within US (Domestic) Travels to US (International)

170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 314

By class segmentations the higher-end hotels have been constructing more hotel spaces to respond to the rising demands

US hotel classes are segmented by primarily according to average room rates In a descending order the segmentation follows Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale

Economy Unaffiliated hotels are hotels not affiliated with a member organization thus varying widely in size quality and cost

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Feb 2017) Under Construction (Feb 2017)

Luxury

Upper Upscale

Upscale

Midscale

Unaffiliated

Economy

Upper Midscale

236

1167

1383

1795

937

1524

2958

437

1412

31933254

432121

1152

Pric

e

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 315

By cities New York has been constructing double triple the amount of hotels compared to other metropolitan areas

Although Las Vegas leads in the total number of existing hotels New York has been constructing more hotel spaces

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Mar 2017) Under Construction (Mar 2017)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 316

5 Hotel market

Even by some of the more well-known tourist destination cities the RevPAR is predicted to continue to increase

Source) HVS Global Hospitality Services

Like the nationwide trend individual cities have also experienced slow growth in terms of RevPAR since the 2008 global financial crisis

New York is notably much higher in terms of RevPAR in comparison to other metropolitan cities

US Hotels ndash RevPAR by City

New York NY

Los Angeles CA

Washington DC

Las Vegas NV

Chicago IL

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rev ($ USD)

Estimated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 317

5 Hotel market

While Airbnb does pose as an lodging alternative to hotels the performance of one market does not impact the other

Source) Boston University

Boston University conducted research on the relationship between Airbnb and hotels in Boston Though Airbnb experienced increases in occupancy growth and RevPAR the gains did not affect the Boston hotelsrsquo

performance

Hotels

Airbnb

Boston ndash Occupancy amp RevPAR (2015-2016)

Occupancy Rate ()

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

Rev ($ USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

中国

Yinghua BAI PhDNRI Shanghai Division Manager

Expertise urban planning regional development and planning of real estate business strategy

Wen WANGNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise regional development industrial strategy and planning of real estate business strategy

Siwei LIUNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise real estate business strategy China marketingbusiness strategy of Japanese companies

Fang QINRI Shanghai Asst Consultant

Expertise regional development planning of real estate business strategy

韓国

JaRyong CHOINRI Seoul Sr Exec Director

Expertise real estate and retail business strategy urban and regional development investment planning

KangTae PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

SungWoo PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

台湾

Michihiro KONAGAINRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise infrastructure development and business strategy planning in infrastructure market

Chi han CHIANGNRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise policy and development planning PPP advisory in land development domain

Jen-hua LiuNRI Taiwan Asst Consultant

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

シンガポール

Toshiro TAKEKOSHINRI Singapore Department Head

Expertise infrastructure (real estate energy) business management and business strategies cross border MampA

Yen-Fen TEOHNRI Singapore Sr Consultant

Sana TAMURANRI Singapore Consultant

Ceputra SALIMNRI Singapore Assoc Consultant

タイ

Yuji KatoNRI Thailand Gr Manager

Expertise infrastructure business (real estate energy) finance

Panitha TeerasorakaiNRI Thailand Consultant

Orachorn SupunsaleekhulNRI Thailand Business Analyst

インド

Arpit MATHURNRI India Sr Consultant

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy and alliances real estate development support etc

Prashant AGGARWALNRI India Consultant

Expertise MampA transaction advisory business strategy financial modelling and business planning etc

Junmyong RANRI India Group Manager

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy ASEAN business strategy investment advisory etc

SungYun (Sonny) KIMNRI India President

Expertise Real estate investment market incl behavioral investment securitization financial crisis etc

Hikojiro ISOZAKINRI Global Knowledge Centre Head

Expertise Automotive and Infrastructure sector advisory investment strategy etc

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

ロシア

Andrei RODIONOVMoscow Br Div Director

Expertise business strategy global marketing MampA

Alexander KHARKOVMoscow Br Consultant

Expertise marketing in Russia business strategy economic regulation

アメリカ

Keitaro HiroseNRI Consultant

Expertise Business Strategy in Real estate and Infrastructure industry

Joshua ChoiNRI America Sr Research Analyst

Expertise Business Strategy IoT Emerging Technology

Makiko TanakaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy Fintech AI

Sherry KitajimaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy AI

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

Contact

Inquiry about this report generally or our solutions for real estate industry[Mail] real-estate-reportnricojp [Language] Japanese English

Inquiry about contents of each sectionChina [Mail] real-estate-report-CHNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Original) EnglishKorea [Mail] real-estate-report-KORnricojp [Language] Japanese Korean EnglishTaiwan [Mail] real-estate-report-TWNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Simplified) EnglishSingapore [Mail] real-estate-report-SGPnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishThailand [Mail] real-estate-report-THAnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishIndia [Mail] real-estate-report-INDnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishRussia [Mail] real-estate-report-RUSnricojp [Language] English RussianUSA [Mail] real-estate-report-USAnricojp [Language] Japanese English

Inquiry about reprinting or quotation of this report[Mail] kouhounricojp [Language] Japanese English

  • The Global Real Estate Market 2017
  • スライド番号 2
  • スライド番号 3
  • スライド番号 4
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • スライド番号 18
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Land Market in China
  • スライド番号 25
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Residential Market in China
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • House supply policy of China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Prospects of Chinas residential market
  • スライド番号 36
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • スライド番号 45
  • Prospects of commercial real estate market in China
  • スライド番号 47
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • スライド番号 51
  • スライド番号 52
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • スライド番号 60
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • スライド番号 68
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • スライド番号 76
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • スライド番号 82
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • スライド番号 89
  • スライド番号 90
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • スライド番号 98
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • スライド番号 104
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • スライド番号 113
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • スライド番号 117
  • (Reference)
  • スライド番号 119
  • Population Trend
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks
  • スライド番号 128
  • Office market- Geographic Area
  • Office market- Stock and Vacancy
  • Office market- Price and Rental Index
  • Office market- Future Supply
  • Office market- Cap rate
  • スライド番号 134
  • Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate
  • Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property
  • Residential market ndashFuture Supply
  • Residential market-Cap Rate
  • スライド番号 142
  • Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate
  • Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space
  • Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore
  • Retail market-CAP Rate
  • Retail market- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 148
  • Logistics Space- Geographic Area
  • Logistics Space- Demand Trend
  • Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy
  • Logistics Space- Rental Index
  • Logistics Space- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 154
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)
  • Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply
  • Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue
  • Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline
  • スライド番号 162
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • スライド番号 167
  • スライド番号 168
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • スライド番号 181
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • スライド番号 187
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies
  • スライド番号 199
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • スライド番号 204
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • スライド番号 210
  • スライド番号 211
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population GrowthIndia is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid UrbanizationIndia is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of EconomyAlthough the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world
  • スライド番号 217
  • Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and GrowthThe construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure
  • Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players PerformanceThe real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes
  • Financing Developments ndash Project Financing OptionsPrivate lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed
  • Financing Developments Trends in REITsREITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry
  • Financing Developments Trends in Domestic InvestmentsDomestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects
  • Financing Developments Trends in Foreign InvestmentsForeign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics
  • Financing Developments Debt position of leading developersDebt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default
  • スライド番号 225
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesGlobal PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesMajor global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesRecently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion
  • スライド番号 229
  • Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy ConditionsFDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years however recent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector
  • スライド番号 231
  • Regulatory Developments ndash DemonetizationDemonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017
  • スライド番号 233
  • Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal SizeThe ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad
  • Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costsNew Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list
  • スライド番号 237
  • Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Residential Space ndash Supply Trends
  • スライド番号 240
  • Retail Space ndash Overall OutlookThe retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes
  • Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Retail Space ndash MallVacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018
  • スライド番号 244
  • Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist DestinationThe travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally
  • Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming InventoryAlthough hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory TrendsDelhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply TrendsAverage room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy
  • Hospitality Space ndash Demand TrendsOccupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year
  • スライド番号 250
  • スライド番号 251
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • スライド番号 256
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • スライド番号 263
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • スライド番号 268
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • スライド番号 272
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • スライド番号 276
  • スライド番号 277
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • スライド番号 287
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • スライド番号 291
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • スライド番号 309
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • スライド番号 313
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • スライド番号 319
  • スライド番号 320
  • スライド番号 321
  • スライド番号 322
  • スライド番号 323
Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized
03 4919 2929 0 0 0 0 0 0
04 12344 6189 5458 0 0 0 0 0
05 24064 15716 7312 9248 0 0 0 0
06 35082 20048 14636 11758 3173 0 0 0
07 72317 42532 34987 1854 7953 1223 1446 0
08 6508 3439 26179 1561 762 10519 6422 0
09 4945 28821 20857 10018 3758 4861 5197 0
10 76738 47631 39742 17782 6188 1220 7522 0
11 104025 87777 5322 27407 12393 16405 13105 0
12 112013 93221 56364 24259 11898 1450 13616 0
13 130698 107712 68086 47917 15109 31961 17999 0
14 159443 115798 80495 64488 1741 4230 18342 0
15 163131 109375 75232 6225 16744 45395 18358 6831
16 168423 127015 82747 6425 13784 41719 19079 7627
17 172877 138636 90674 69255 18147 46492 18982 1031
03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03
04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04
05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
Page 3: The Global Real Estate Market 2017 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 2

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 3

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 4

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Chinarsquos GDP overtook Japan in 2010 and the gap will expand after 2012 But itrsquos somewhat eased in 2016

(bn USD)

Source IMF

Changes in Japan and Chinarsquos nominal GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 5

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Real GDP growth rate has been on a downward trend since 2007and it hasreachedthe lowest level in 2015 whichrsquos behind the transition from investment-led growth to consumption-led growth

Source The National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes in real GDP growth rate of China and sectoral contribution

()

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Net Exports Gross Capital Formation Consumption Real GDP Growth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 6

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

The national average of per capita GDP in 2015 increased by 3222 yuan as compared with 2014 Just as the three big cities of Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Jiangsu Province has also reached high income national standard of US$12616

(RMB)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note World Bank definition of high-income country GDP per capita ge USD 12616 (about RMB 83619 according to the rate on November 1 2017)

High-income country Average RMB 83619

GDP per capita by provincemunicipality directly under the central government (2015)

China Average RMB 50251(2014 data RMB 46629)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 7

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

In the background of industrial upgrading the tertiary industries have been growing with their contribution to a GDP growth of over 50 in 2016 This growth became the main factor for increasing real estate investment in urban areas

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(100 mil Yuan)

Trends of Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Overall GDP GDP of tertiary industries Percentage of tertiary industries accounting for in GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 8

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

From 2014 to 2015 the proportion of tertiary industry was increasing in every region Shanxi Gansu Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces showed particularly high growth rates of more than 5

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Percentage of tertiary industry GDP as a whole by region (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Beiji

ng

Shan

ghai

Xiz

ang

Hai

nan

Shan

xi

Tia

njin

g

Heilo

ngjia

ng

Gua

ngd

ong

Zhejia

ng

Gan

su

Jia

ngsu

Chongq

ing

Lia

oni

ng

Shan

dong

Yunna

n

Gui

zhou

Xin

jiang

Nin

gxia

Hunan

Sic

huan

Hube

i

Fik

oam

Qin

ghai

Shan

xi

Neim

eng

gu

Henan

Hebe

i

Jia

ngxi

Anh

ui

Jili

n

Gua

ngx

i

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2015)

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2014)

China Average(2015)502

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 9

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population

The peak-out of productive-age population is coming therersquos a widespread concern about economic slowdown

Source Compiled by NRI from UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

(1950=100)Peak

Productive-age population of China and Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 10

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

After 2015 when it is estimated Chinas demographic dividend disappears the government has to face an increased financial burden a decrease of the labor force a consumption slump and other problems due to a declining birthrate and aging population

As a countermeasure in January 2016 the government abolished the ldquoOne-child policyrdquo and formally adopted the ldquoTwo-childrdquo policy At present there are many families who canrsquot produce the second child due to high childcare expenses and education costs However looking at the remarkable population increase in 2016 it can be seen that this policy was effective

The number of births in China in 2016 was 1788 million which increased by 132 million compared with 1654 million the averagenumber of births from 2012 to 2015

On the other hand for the proportion of people over 65 years old it has exceeded 10 in 2016 following Japan China is predicted to enter an aging society after 2025 and into a super aged society after 2035( If the aging rate exceeds 14 it is classified as aged society if over 21 it is classified as super aged society)

As the measures to cope with declining production population and the rise in the number of elderly population Two-child policy has been officially introduced since 2016 which is expected to boost economic growth

() ()

Change in proportion of young population (lt15)

Source UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

Change in proportion of 65+ population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 11

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Chinarsquos urbanization rate had risen by more than 30 points from 1991 to 2016 The National New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) was issued by the State Council of China on 16th March 2014 The plan highlights

that it is essential to raise the quality of urbanization that comes in line with the Chinese approach to urbanization The plan also underlined that by 2020 permanent urban residents will reach approx 60 of the population while residents in the city census register will account for approx 45 of the total population with 100 million rural residents settling down in the urban areas

Urbanization rate in 2016 reached 574 which is expected to reach 60 of the policy goal in 2020 in another two years

Note) Total population in 2020 is the estimate value of UN while the urbanization rate is the target value stated in government policy

(10000 People )

Source China Statistical Yearbook amp UN World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision

Population and urbanization rate in china

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

30000

60000

90000

120000

150000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20ETotal Population Urban Population Urban Population Ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 12

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Urbanization which has progressed mainly in the coastal area has progressed to inland regions and the Northeast such as Liaoning Chongqing Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang The four provinces of Tibet Shandong Guizhou and Hebei are particularly fast to progress in this year

Urbanization rate of China by area (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Shan

ghai

Bei

jing

Tia

njin

gG

uangd

ong

Lia

onin

gJia

ngs

uZhe

jiang

Fik

oam

Cho

ngq

ing

Neim

eng

guH

eilo

ngj

iang

Shan

dong

Hube

iJili

nN

ingx

iaH

aina

nShan

xiShan

xiJia

ngx

iH

ebe

iH

una

nA

nhu

iQ

ingh

aiSic

hua

nXin

jiang

Gua

ngx

iH

ena

nYunn

anG

ansu

Gui

zhou

Xiz

ang

2014 Ratio() 2015 Ratio()

China Average(2015)561

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 13

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions

Although the newly constructed housing construction area in the urban area which peaked in 2011 had a somewhat declining trend since 2011 when the real estate market regulation were implemented it still was over 1 billion square meters per year

(100 million m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics amp MOHURD China

(m2 per capita)

Changes in construction area of new houses in urban areas Changes in housing area per capita in urban areas

CAGR174

Note) Until 2012 public data from the National Bureau of Statistics is used while the data of 2013 -2016used is published by MOHURD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 14

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend

In the past 16 years the per capita disposable income in urban areas increased at an average growth rate of more than 10 indicating a steady growth in Chinas urban Individual consumption ability

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(RMB)

Disposable Income per Capita and Growth Rate in Urban Areas

CAGR107

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 15

Nationwide average 62 of household income per capita is due to salary income and 17 is due to transfer income The cities with high property revenues including real estate income are Beijing (15) Shanghai (14) Zhejiang (11) and Yunnan (11)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note Salary income wage income Business revenue revenue from commercial buying and selling activities Asset income revenue from moveables and real estate Transfer income income from severance pay pension etc

(RMB)

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

Source of annual household income per capita of urban population by region (2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 16

Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2015 exceeded 30 billion yuan which was 77 times as much as that of 2000 Especially since 2007 it increased at an annual growth rate of 16 per year and urged construction demand of commercial facilities

(100 mil Yuan)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and Its Growth Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 17

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 18

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment which shows about 20 of fixed asset investment in urban areas has expanded at a rate of 20 since 2000 However it has declined to a low level due to the recent slowdown in fixed assets growth

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

Growth Rate Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

CAGR218

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 19

Chinas Real Estate Investment

In the three areas of Beijing (56) Shanghai (55) and Hainan (51) real estate investment in urban fixed asset investment is high In proportion to other areas the areas of less than 50 is more than 18 of nationwide average

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

National Average (18)

The Ratio of Real Estate Investment in Urban Fixed Asset Investment by Region in 2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 20

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Regarding the ratio of real estate investment to fixed asset investment all of the regions declined in 2015 compared to the previous year except for North China region Real estate activities are still most active in the southwestern region

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi ShandongSouth Central China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi HainanSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region in 2015

Overtime Comparison of Growth Rate of Proportion of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region (2014-2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 21

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment in Urban China has been a major driving force in GDP growth so far In recent years the growth of GDP is slowing somewhat due to the slump in real estate investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The conventional housing distribution system was abolished

Change in Growth Rates of GDP and of Real Estate Investment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 22

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Even if the real estate investment value rises year by year 23 of that is still housing investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The Percentage of HousingCommercialOffice Investments in Real Estate Investment (2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 23

Land Market in China

In urban areas of China both commercial and residential land tend to be higher and in terms of historical trends prices of residential land and commercial land will rise at a pace that is significantly higher than the overall average Land price is continuously increasing

While the land supply of urban areas is restricted by the government intense bid auction between real estate development companies is also a factor that invariably leads to an increase in land prices

Land price temporarily declined in 2011 due to the influence of real estate market regulation but after that its turning again to an upward trend Its particularly noteworthy that the increase rate of residential land prices was doubling in 2016 compared with the previous year

Source China urban land price monitoring data

(RMBm2)()

Change in Land prices in urban areas of China Change in Land price appreciation rates in urban areas of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 24

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 25

Chinarsquos Residential Market

During the 10 years to 2011 there was a period in which the supply speed of commercial housing slowed down due to a tightening or adjustment of policy Needs for housing however expanded and the completed area was raised by a high average growth rate of 117

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down The housing supply volume from 2014 to 2015 has been reduced by 10 We can see that the housing supply is decelerating

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down and the deceleration of housing supply in urban areas will be strengthened

(10000 m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The area of commercial residencesrsquo completion in China

CAGR117

CAGR-02

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 26

Chinarsquos Residential Market

In 2015 the number of new commodity houses completed in China is 755 million units which is 293 times as large as the number of newly built houses launched in Japan in 241 units

In 2015 the supply of commodity housing in urban area of China is 750 thousand which is equivalent to the scale of about 29 times of the sale of residential housing in Japan although it is 8 lower than the previous year

(10000 House) (m2 per house )

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The number of commercial residence completions and transition of its average completion area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 27

Residential Market in China

Approximately 30 of the housing construction area is concentrated in the four municipalities of Chongqing Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Construction area decreased more than 60 of cities from the previous year Growth of regional cities such as Lanzhou Nanjing and Guiyang attracts particular attention

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Areas of Completed Residential Properties among Major Cities

National Average Growth Rate10

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 28

Chinas Residential Market

The selling price of commercial residences has risen by 32 times during the last 15 years with this trend being especially evident among luxury properties

(RMBm2)

Note) Since sales prices of the economical housing for low-and-middle income earners in 2011 were not reported in the China Statistical Yearbook 2012 the data here was calculated on the basis of data in 2010 by CAGR at 110

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Selling price of commercial residences in China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 29

Chinas Residential Market

Sale price of residential properties has risen by more than 80 in the last 7 years Shenzhen Shanghai Nanjing and Xiamen each have a price increase of 13 times or more

(RMBm2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Sale Price of Commercial Housing in Major Cities (Comparison between 2008 and 2015)

National Average Growth Rate81

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Selling Prices in 2008 (left scale) Selling Prices in 2015(left scale) Increase in 7 years since 2008(right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 30

Chinas Residential Market

For the past 15 years the annual income ratio of house price in China has changed to about seven times but there was not much change

Shenzhen Shanghai and Beijing are particularly fluctuating Especially in Shenzhen the house price annual income ratio of this 15 years rises nearly five times and it becomes the city which is the most difficult to obtain housing in China

With respect to the annual income ratio of house price Shenzhen is the highest at 28 times followed by Shanghai (21 times) Beijing (18 times) and magnifications tend to expand from the previous year in addition to Guangzhou and Shenyang

Source Statistical material by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the National Bureau of Statistics

(Times)

The housing selling prices to income ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 31

House supply policy of China

Monetary easing policies were implemented after the Lehman shock resulted in skyrocketing housing prices in Beijing Shanghai and other major cities in China As a countermeasure the Chinese government implemented a series of policies that made it more difficult for the acquisition of houses after October 2009

Although house price fluctuations were affected by political tightening and repetition of mitigation and others it was never stopped to raise housing prices especially in large cities while rather acquiring houses became increasingly difficult

Although the policy implemented by the government from 2009 had some effects in reducing housing prices it could never stop the housing price rise and housing acquisition difficulties

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Monthly sales price of commercial housing compared with that of the same month in the previous year (after 2007)

End of 2008 Economic recovery through reduction of interest rates and exemption of real estate acquisition tax etc

October 2009Implementation of housing price suppression policies Abolishment of tax incentives (real estate transaction tax and personal income tax) Implementation of differentiated housing loan policy

March ~ April 2010Purchase of house was limited in 48 cities Higher down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Restriction of banking loan to developers

January 2011Further increase of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Trial introduction of property tax for the third house in Shanghai and Chongqing Increase of house supply through provision of affordable houses

September 2014 Decrease of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house by the central bank Policy for limiting house purchases was abolished in most cities Promoted expansion of financing route and supported banks and other financial institutions to issue housing bonds and REITs

Restriction Easing Easing

()

February~March 2016bull In cities without purchase constraints the

reduction of initial payment of housing loan to 20 was possible

bull Possible further reduction in real estate transaction taxes and business tax

April 2016bull Only First Class Cities such as Shanghai

Shenzhen successively issued new policies to constrain purchases

February~March 2015bull The central government and regional governments will issue

relaxation policies such as consumption acceleration of houses at stock in the Second- and Third-class cities tax reduction supply of subsidies to solve regionality and constitutive issuesof the real estate industry

Restriction

March 2017bull The Tier1 and Tier2

cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen have launched regulation policies continuously

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 32

Government Housing Policy in China

Chinas housing market has been spurred as a vicious circle like if policy loosens itll be overheating If policy ties down itll cool downldquo and it has been supported by high demand so the price rise is expected to continue focusing on 70 cities around the future

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The change of cities number with the housing pricersquos deviation at the link relative ratio in the 70 major cities of China (2011-20179)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 33

Government Housing Policy in China

In July 2017 the government announced the latest policy about the development acceleration of the lease house market targeting at the large and medium-sized cities where lack lease house seriously

The extracts of Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a

net population inflow ( publication with July 26 2017 )

There is a large population to flow into the large and medium-sized cities every year in China The actuality is that the absolutely needed quantity of the leasehold property is insufficient The floating population in 2016 of China reaches 245 million In addition the annual new college graduates are about 7 million people

According to the rental market research report published by Lianjia Research Institute of a large real estate intermediary company focusing on Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou the floating population in Tier1 cities will account for more than 40 of the overall population in the future

In order to solve the new housing problem of the citizens in large and medium cities in July 2017 Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a net population inflow (Hereinafter referred to briefly as ldquonotificationrdquo)

According to the notification in the large and medium cities with a net population inflow therersquore some problems with insufficient total rental housing market disorder imperfect of payment support system and introduced relevant policies to speed up the construction of rental housing and rental housing market cultivation and development

Promote more specialized and large-scale enterprises engaged in leasing residential enterprises

Establish a government property rental housing transaction service platform

Expand the supply of rental housing Renewal of rental housing management and service system

The extracts of the model plan of utilizing a group construction site to build the lease house(publication with August 28 2017)

Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other developments selected Beijing Shanghai Shenyang Nanjing Hangzhou Hefei Xiamen Zhengzhou Wuhan Guangzhou Foshan Zhaoqing Chengdu and other 13 cities as pilot cities for the development of rental housing policy

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 34

Prospects of Chinas residential market

In 2018 the characteristics of residential market in China are as below The rental housing market in the Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is on the rise and the supply scale of the medium and large housing has expanded

Directions of Chinas residential market in 2018

bull The contradiction between the inflow of new population and the unaffordable housing in large and medium-sized cities has widened

Increase the supply of rental housing in Tier1 and Tier2 cities with significant population inflow

bull The new housing requirements spawned by ldquotwo-child policyrdquo and the maintenance demand to child care-related service

The demand for large and medium sized housing that value child-rearing and related service enrichment is expanding

bull The diversification of residential demand in Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is coexistent with high housing price

Strong Tier1 and Tier2 cities have boosted the residential market in Tier3 and Tier4 cities

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 35

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 36

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

As a result of the slowdown in consumption growth and the impact of e-commerce the supply of commercial facilities has been gradually decreasing in the years since 2013

(10 thousand m2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Nationwide Commercial Facilities Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 37

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Investment in commercial facilities has been steadily increasing at an average annual rate of 26 by 2014 but significant investment continued to decelerate after that

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Investment Amount and Growth Rate of Commercial Facilities

CAGR230

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 38

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

The average sale price of commercial facilities has recovered slightly in the past two years and has increased in north China and eastern China and has decreased in south China

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in China

The sale areas and sale price of commercial facilities in eachregion(2015 and 2016)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

North China Northeast

China

Eastern

China

South Central

China

Southwest

China

Northwest

China

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (left scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (right scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 39

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Sales of commercial facilities in Guizhou Chongqing Hainan Henan and Gansu have all doubled in the last five years By contrast sales in the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning Heilongjiang and Jilin) have declined significantly

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities by Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 40

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

Office supply in urban areas in China has experienced a downturn after the Lehman Brothersrsquo failure in 2008 however a growing trend with a low completion rate continues as a whole

(10 thousand m2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Change in Nationwide Office Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 41

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

By 2014 due to the rapid increase in investment in the office market the construction of office buildings also welcomed Immediate peach And in the last three years as investment growth has slowed the office market has regained its stability

(100 mil Yuan)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Investment Amount Growth Rate of Office Development

CAGR21

CAGR33

CAGR8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 42

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

More than 40 of office sales are concentrated in eastern China In the last two years the sales volume has increased by more than 30 which is concentrated in east China and north China and the unit price has been increasing again

(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices in China Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices by Area (2014 and 2015)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

North China Northeast China Eastern China South Central

China

Southwest China Northwest China

Sales Spaces of Office in 2015 (left scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Office in 2015 (right scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 43

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

In the last five years sales of office buildings in Shandong Xinjiang Guizhou and Chongqing have been extremely brisk In contrast Liaoning and Tianjin saw a significant reduction in sales volume

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Office Sales Spaces by Region

14082

-562

88282

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 44Source Public information of Commercial Property Cloud Think Tank

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Chinarsquos commercial real estate market tendency of shopping center

In recent years the opening area of shopping center in eastern China has been in the first place but it has shown a deceleration trend On the other hand central China is more in Tier2 cities and inland cities where the development of shopping centers is booming

In 2016 the number of newly opened large-scale shopping centers in China was 465 which have a total development area of 43193500increasing by 321 compared to 2015

In 2016 the area with the most new openings was east China followed by north China and south China Compared with the slowdown in central China the development of the southwest region has attracted considerable attention

The opening area of the first-class city accounts for about 15 of the total and the new first-class city with remarkable growth accounts for 25 of the total Small scale projects of less than 200000 are mainstream

The area and quantity of new opening shopping centers in 2016 Number of new start-up shopping centers by size in 2016

Note) The shopping center here is counted only for large projects over 30000 Note) First-class cities refer to the four cities of Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou and ShenzhenNewfirst class cities refer to the 15 cities of Chengdu Hangzhou Wuhan Tianjin Nanjing Chongqing Xian Changsha Qingdao Shenyang Dalian Xiamen Suzhou Ningbo and Wuxi

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 45

Prospects of commercial real estate market in China

In 2018 the commercial real estate market in China needs to build a construction facility and operation management system that adapts to the present era and citizens consumption behavior

Directions of Chinas real estate market in 2018

bull Update needs of existing traditional commercial business Differentiation development needs during commercial setting Compounding construction needs in commercial development delayed region

Modification of existing commerce centered on Tier1 and Tier2 cities new construction of Lifestyle-based small-scale specialty commerce and construction of a large complex commercial centering on Tier3 and Tier4 cities

bull Activation of everyday consumer behavior relying on online more and more in theTier1 and Tier2 cities

Establishment of a new commercial business model including the introduction of online-offline business model and examination of operations management system accordingly

bull Lack of a convenient community of nearby commercials that can adapt to todays era and citizens life

Construction of a living-oriented neighborhood commerce tackling many business styles such as childcare and senior services

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 46

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 47

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In 2016 the top 10 companies were the same as last year but the ranking changed The most notable was that Evergrande Real Estate surpassed the industrys largest enterprise Vanke Real Estate to become the No1 in the industry

Rank2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales1 Vanke Group 1215 Vanke Group 1452 Vanke Group 1776 Vanke Group 2120 Vanke Group 2627 Poly Group 2627

2 Dalian Wanda Group 953 Poly Group 1020 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1625 Shanghai Greenland Group 2080 Evergrande Group 2050 Vanke Group 2050

3 EvergrandeGroup 804 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1013 Poly Group 1251 DalianWanda Group 1501 Shanghai Greenland

Group 2015 Country Garden 2015

4 Shanghai Greenland Group 770 China Overseas

Land 945 China Overseas Land 1103 Evergrande Group 1376 Dalian

Wanda Group 1513 Shanghai Greenland Group 1513

5 Poly Group 732 Dalian Wanda Group 938 Evergrande Group 1073 Poly Group 1362 China Overseas

Land 1492 Poly Group 1492

6 China Overseas Land 708 Evergrande Group 925 Country Garden 1068 Country Garden 1250 Poly Group 1471 China Overseas

Land 1471

7 Country Garden 432 China Greentown 547 Dalian Wanda Group 844 China Overseas

Land 1152 Country Garden 1402 Longfor Group 1402

8 Longfor Group 383 China Resources Land 505 China Resources

Land 688 Shimao Property Holdings 708 China Resources

Land 851 RampF Properties 851

9 China Greentown 353 Country Garden 491 Shimao Property Holdings 683 China Resources

Land 700 Sunac China 731 Country Garden 731

10 China Resources Land 330 Shimao Property

Holdings 461 China Greentown 660 Sunac China 658 China Fortune Land Development 725 Dalian Wanda

Group 725

TotalSales 6680 8297 10771 12907 14877 22022

Total Share within

National Sales

113 129 133 169 170 1872

Average Coverage 405 Cities 531 Cities 672 Cities 737 Cities 751 Cities 875 Cities

Source) Compiled by NRI based on publicly available information and the data of each companyrsquos homepage

Comparison of Developers Top 10 (2011~2016)Unit 100 mil RMB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 48

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In the recently announced Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017 domestic capital and Hong Kong-Singaporean companies accounted for half of the total SCPG whichrsquos the subsidiary of Vanke Real Estate has replaced Wanda group enter the Top3

Rank Company Name Company Nature Overall Rating Score Representative Commercial Project

1 China Resources Land domestic capital 897 Shenzhen MIXC

2 Hang Lung Properties Hong Kong capital 879 Plaza 66

3 CSPG domestic capital 866 Wuhan INCITY

4 Wanda Commercial Real Estate domestic capital 858 Wanda Plaza

5 Longfor Properties domestic capital 824 Chongqing North Street

6 Capitaland Singapore captial 823 Raffles City Shanghai Plaza

7 SHK Properties Hong Kong capital 817 ICC Shanghai

8 Swire Properties Hong Kong capital 815 Chengdu TaiKoo Hui

9 Joy City Properties domestic capital 809 Shanghai Joy City

10 Wharf Holdings Hong Kong capital 808 Shanghai Time Square

Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017

Note) November 2017 New perspective media announced TOP 100 enterprises in 2017China Commercial real estate Four indicators are used in the overall evaluation (full mark 100 points) as management (40 points) management (30 points) brand (20 points) and innovation (10 points)

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 49

bull The government will introduce various incentives to expand the rental housing market

The new type of residential leasing enterprises centered on large state-owned enterprises keeps pouring out

bull Real estate developers are actively involved in the construction of a small town (street) in the background of the new city

Work with other companies across industries to develop new real estate products

bull From the previous emphasis on the development of real estate developers a focus on industrial agglomeration and cultivation of operation managers

Real estate developers have diversified into other businesses as well as the rapid growth of industrial property developers who are engaged in the development and operation of industrial parks

1

2

3

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 50

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 51

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 52

Macroeconomic trends

The Korean economy is expected to continue growing at a low rate of 3

The trend and forecast of GDP and economic growth rate in Korea

SourceNRI based on IMF (201710)

GDP CAGR in 90s

67

GDP CAGR in 00s

42

Expected GDP CAGR after 2011

30

600

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

500

400

300

200

100

0200

2200

1200

0199

9199

8199

7201

5199

5199

4199

3199

2199

1199

02020(E)

2019(E)

2018(E)

2017(E)

2016(E)

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

1996

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

295296296302283279331290

650546518

392490

743

1131

957921

1035981

229368

071

283293

453

892

-547

592

760685

618

GDP (Real GDP Trillion Won) Economic Growth Rate ()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 53

Macroeconomic trends

Interest rate has declined to 1 since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 Low interest rate is expected to increase the liquidity

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Interest Rate (1998-2016)

475525

4 425375

325375

455

3

225

325275 25

215 125

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10yr Treasury Bond (average)

3yr Cooperate Bond aa- (average)

CD 91 days (average)

Call Rate (overnight average)

Base Rate

(unit )

Consistent downturn in interest ratesince 1998

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 54

Macroeconomic trends

With the implementation of a loose monetary policy for economic revitalization the amount of domestic currency is continuously increasing and market liquidity is expanding

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Trends in average balance of KRW (1998-2016)

rsquo98年以後

持続的な増加傾向

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Lf M2 M1 ハイパワードマネー

Consistently increasing trendsince 1998

(unit Trillion Won)

Note High-powered money = Currency issued + KRW deposited in financial institutions and The Bank of Korea M1 (consultation currency) Currency-in-circulation + demand deposits and savings account balance where deposit or withdrawal can be done any time - mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

M2 (Broad currency) M1 + time depositssavingsreservespayments + market-based financial instruments (CDRPAccommodation bill) + financial instruments offering dividend + bank debentures + others (investment securities and savingspromissory notes issued by financial companies) - long-term financial instruments (2 years)mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

(Liquidity of financial institutions) M1 + Savingsreservesbank debentures within M2 with maturity period of 2 years or more + deposits with Korea Securities Finance Corporation + reserves for insurance contracts with life insurance companies (including post offices) + deposits excluding those of agricultural cooperatives or country people - mutual dealings of such financial instruments between institutions covered in Lf

High-powered money

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 55

Macroeconomic trends

Valorization Policy maintains Consumer Price Index at approximately 1

Changes in Consumer Price Index(CPI) Year-on-year Ratio

(unit Year-on-Year )

271

191

250265

210

176203

384

237260

367

207

126 125

070097

328

168

280

356

306

243257

444

182

303

406

165

071084

-022

067

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CPI CPI for living necessities

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea Media Research

Note CPI is calculated on a monthly basis assuming year 2015 as 100 and covering 481 items (weighted average) for research

CPI for living necessities provides a separate summary of 142 products that are designated as daily necessities or those that are purchased frequently out of the total 481 products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 56

Macroeconomic trends

After the Lehman shock the wondollar exchange rate fell However it started to rise after 2014

WonDollar exchange rate trends

907

1411

1013

1145

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

05

01

05

06

05

11

06

04

06

09

07

02

07

07

07

12

08

05

08

10

09

03

09

08

10

01

10

06

10

11

11

04

11

09

12

02

12

07

12

12

13

05

13

10

14

03

14

08

15

01

15

06

15

11

16

04

16

09

17

02

17

07

(unit Won)

It started to increase after 2014

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Note Based on the current price of KRW USD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 57

12655 11795 33593

18656

81148 105940 98677

Current account

Macroeconomic trendsThe current account surplus is slightly lower (approximately 990 dollars) than the one last year which was recorded the highest This is because of the fall in exports and the deficit in service balance resulted from recession in construction and transportation industry

Current account trends

-70000

-20000

30000

80000

130000

180000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Balance of secondary income

Balance of primary income

Balance of services

Balance of goods

(unit million dollar)

345115

728805 622212

303672

636241

484159

Exports of Goos amp Services

Imports of Goods amp Services

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 58

Macroeconomic trendsThe rise of the rate of employment and unemployment The rise of the employment rate is attributed to increase in the middle-agedelderly workers However for job seekers in their 20s the work environment is not improving

Employment Rate and Unemployment Rate in Korea Employment Rate by Age

(unit ) (unit ten thousands people) (unit )

Improvement in employment rate

389 378 371 365 361 357 363 369 375

601 584 583 579 576 574 571 568 564

655 652 655 661 662 664 668 667 664

430 450 479 508 535 561 585 599 609

264 269 274 289 311 329 349 366 388

595

586 587591

594 595

602 603 604

50

52

54

56

58

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10s 20s 30s 40s 50s over 60 Employment rate

No of employees over 50s(372 )

590

600

593

598 597 597 598

595

586 587

591

594 595

602603 604

40

33

36 37 3735

32 32

36 37

3432 31

3536 37

00

10

20

30

40

50

57

58

59

60

61

62

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Employment rate Umemployment rate

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (KOSTAT)

Note Employment Rate=(employeepopulation over age 15)x100 Unemployment Rate=(The UnemployedEconomically Active Population)x100

Improvement in both employment

and unemployment rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 59

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 60

Office market trends

The Seoul office market is divided into three categories CBD government agencies and conglomerate headquarters YBD financial district GBD IT district

Sphere wise office market of Seoul

Seoul City hall

bull The largest office district with a long history

bull Developed since the 1960s and has a high level of infrastructure

bull The highest rental rate in Korea bull Conglomerate headquarters foreign

companies in Korea (Seoul) insurancesecurities companies government agency buildings embassies etc

bull Developed since the mid 1980sbull Lower vacancy rate than the other

districts due to low new supplybull Rent rate in between two other

districtsbull ITconglomerates and foreign

companies

CBD(Central Business District)

GBD(Gangnam Business District)

bull Developed since the late 1980sbull Rent is lower than CBD and GBDbull Headquarters of financial

institutions such as banks and securities

YBD(Yeouido Business District)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 61

Office market trends

Regarding the domestic office market the supply of new offices increased mainly in CBD and YBD after 2010 After 2014 the supply of new offices mainly increased in GBD

Trends in new supply of offices in Seoul

CBD Central(1970 to 1986)

GBD Central(1987 to 2009)

(unit 万)

CBD(2010

to 2011)

YBD(2012 to

2013)

GBD(2014

onwards)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

70 72 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 62

Office market trends

The vacancy rate of new prime offices in Seoul was 8 and the rental rate reduced to 87K KRW33m2Month

Vacancy rate of prime offices in Seoul Rental rate of prime offices in Seoul

(unit KRW33Month)

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 63

Office market trends

The number of major office transactions in Seoul was 72 and it is rapidly increasing with the total sale price

Number of Seoul office sales and total sale prices

(unit Trillion KRW)(Unit sale)

Note Offices with total floor area of 3300m2 or more only are covered

25

35

57

4241

52 26

39 38

53

48

57 58 59

51

46

72

17 19 26

22

28 26

12

41 42 48 46

55 56 60

70

36

88

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Total Sale Price

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 64

Office market trends

The office sale price was about 48 Millionm2 and the cap rate was 53

Sales volume and pricem2 by office district in Seoul

2488 2818

3658 4034

3513 3760

4103 4284 4297

4632 4787 4829

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Averaged Sale Pricem2

(Unit Ten thousands ) (Unit Thousand KRW)

79

73

67

62 6366

68

60

54

59

48

53

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 65

Office market trends

In 2015 the averaged volume of office sales was 19000m2 and the averaged sale price per 33m2 was about 16M KRW

Sale price per volume by office district in Seoul (2016 property transaction)

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Note This analysis covers 43 offices with transactions concluded mainly in CBD GBD and YBD in 2016Transactions for the completion of construction in 2016 IFC individual transactions etc 7 cases are excluded

(Price ten thousands KRW33m2) (unit ten thousands KRW33m2)

Volume(m2)

CBD GBD YBD

1500

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1000

500

9000060000300002000010000 250000 1500050000

35000

National Health Insurance Corporation

Teheran building

Capital TowerCosmos building

Daewoo Shipbuilding amp Marine Engineering Building

Center point opticalization

Samsung Lifes Head Office

International building

Jong-Ro Tower

Average transaction cost1791(10K KRW 33)

Average transaction area19474 ()

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

00

1955 Million KRW

2005 Million KRW

1328 Million KRW

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 66

Office market trends

The office market Cap rate in 2015 was about 5 and Spread of government bonds was 4

Trends of Seoul office cap rate and T-bill

Source NRI based on Media Research

41 42 32

48 34

25 21 09 04

15 22 18 27 23 27 26 31

7869 66

51 47 50

52 54 56 52 48 42

35 33 32 23 22

119 111

98 98

8275 73

62 6067 70

60 6156 59

49 53

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

스프레드 국고채 10년 Cap rate(unit )

ldquoPositioning investee companies as steady and profitable with the 3 level Spreadrdquo

Real estate market activities

Temporary market stagnation due to

financial crises

Alternate investments becoming active due to low-interest rate policy

Spread T-bill (10yr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 67

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 68

Residential market trendsThe domestic household debts have increased to 1300 Trillion KRW Among these home equity loan accounts for 40 Also the default risk is rising because of decline in real estate prices and increase in interest rates

Trends in scale of household finance

665724

776843

916 9641021

10891203

1344

293 311 338 363 392 404 418 461 491546

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

가계대출 주택대출(単位 兆ウォン)

440

430436

430 428

419409

423408 406

주택담보대출비중Unit Trillion KRW Weight of home equity loan

Household finance Housing loan

Source NRI Analysis National Statistical Office (NSO)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 69

Residential market trends

The land price index and the land transaction volume are gradually rising

Land Transaction Volume and Land Price Index1)

224 229 223207

233

204224

264

309 300

28 26 23 17 19 16 20 26 36 37

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

National

Seoul

890 887 895 905 915 924 935 953

976 1002

Land price index1)

Land transactionvolume

(unit No of lots)CAGR193

CAGR66

(Lot unit 10 thousand number of case )

Note 1) Based on Land Price Index 2016121 = 100

Source NRI based on data from Real Estate Official Statistics Network (httpwwwr-onecokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 70

Residential market trendsThe housing transaction volume was showing recovery after 2012 however with the increase in uncertainties such as the credit examination strengthening and the interest rate increase in USA it has slightly decreased

Transition of National Housing Transaction Volume

(unit no of transaction)Transaction volume of metropolitan areaaccounts for about 54 of that of nationwide

384777

385400 443923475075

517361

608424

463459

488757

543062

581909

484807

2015

1193691

611782

2014

1005173

462111

2013

851850

363093

2012

735414

271955

2011

981238

372814

2010

799864

282503

2009

870353

395278

2008

893790

449867

2007

867933

482533

2006

1082453

697676

2016

1053069

568262

Capital areaRural area

212978221683

148266111889

83257114315

88737138016147023159396

263599

Seoul

Source NRI based on data from Onnara Real Estate (httpwwwonnaragokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 71

Residential market trends

The supply of housing units increases since 2013 especially in apartments In 2016 about one million units are newly supplied

Housing supply by types of housing

544909

644512

459887 468642 504481

804019 854095

658025

727354

1085838 1055149

412891 476462

263153 297183 276989

356762 376086

278739

347687

534931 506816

106251

152042 186637

163357

219823

349661 340477

277594 274869

350463 341915

25767 16008 10097 8102 7669 13596 13532 32692 41170

105112

128450

84000 124000

69000 63628 95332

77968

-

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total Apartment Multi-unit dwelling Officetel Urban-type housing(unit no of housing supply) (unit no of house)

Source NRI based on statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation

Official statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation do not include some officetels and urban-type residences hence the gross households supplied would be different from what is mentioned in this report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 72

Residential market trends

The average Housing Price Index has been increasing since 2013 especially in Seoul and the metropolitan area

Housing Price Index (10 years) Housing Price Index (3 years)

(unit index) (unit index)

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

Note Standard of National Housing Price Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source National Statistical Office

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 73

Residential market trends

The Jeonse (House Lease) price index has consistently illustrated an upward trend in these ten years However recently the growth rate has slowed down

Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (10 years) Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (3 years)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

940

945

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

1055

1060

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Capital AreaNational Rural AreaSeoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

(unit index) (unit index)

Note Based on National House Lease Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source NRI based on Korea Appraisal Board

Jeonse refers to the way houses are leased Instead of paying monthly rent a renter will makea lump-sum deposit on a rental space at anywhere from 50 to 80 of the market value

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 74

Residential market trends

The Jeonse cost is about 68 of the Housing price The standard in the capital area being 70 it is mainly increasing in Seoul and capital area

National Jeonse Cost to Housing Price

556 563 566 572 577 586 593 584 593 606 616 622 626 631 638 646 653 661 672 678 680 680

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11

3Q

11

4Q

12

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

13

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

14

1Q

14

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

15

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

16

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

National Capital Area Seoul Rural Area

(単位 )

CAGR

National

Capital Area

Seoul

Rural Area

10

16

16

05

Source NRI data from based on The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 75

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 76

Commercial facilities market trends

The retail market scale has reached approximately 300 trillion KRW including the both online and offline especially the online business that has shown a remarkable increase

OnlineOffline Retail Market Scale (2006-2016)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores) Online market = Computer shopping mobile shopping (excluding TV home shopping and catalogue shopping)

The total sales of large marts calculated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) excludes the sales of duty free shops and includes those of complex malls and Auretto Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Korea Online Shopping Association

309

243(79)

66(21)

2015

2016

287

233(81)

54(19)

2014

273

227(83)

45(17)

2013

265

226(85)

40(15)

2012

260

225(86)

36(14)

2011

249

217(87)

32(13)

2010

224

201(90)

23(10)

2009

208

188(90)

21(10)

2008

198

179(91)

18(9)

2007

188

172(92)

16(8)

(Unit Trillion KRW ) オフラインオンライン

CAGR (2007 to 2011)

73

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

44 CAGR(2007 to 2011)

60 20

191 164

Online Offline

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 77

Commercial facilities market trends

Among the offline stores CVS has been leading in growth while the other businesses stay on slow growth

Offline Retail Market Scale (2011-2016 business type wise)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores)

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO)

233

102(44)

49(21)

29(12)

29(13)

7(3)

17(7)

2014

227

102(45)

47(21)

29(13)

29(13)

7(3)

13(6)

2013

226

103(46)

46(20)

30(13)

28(13)

7(3)

2012

12(5)

225

45(20)

2016

243

103(42)

53(22)

30(12)

30(12)

106(47)

7(3)

20(8)

2015

29(13)

28(12)

7(3)

11(5)

Department stores Speciality retail stores

HypermarketSM (excluding SSM)SSM (Corporate supermarkets)

Convenience stores

CAGR

01

82 239

13

(2012 to 2014)(2014 to 2016)

29 56

38 28

24 26

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

49

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

32

(Unit Trillion KRW )

-17 03

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 78

Commercial facilities market trends

Regarding SM market the growth rate remains in 2 range and SSM rate stays 20 range

SM market scale (2012-2016)

SSM = Lotte Super GS Retail Home Plus Everyday Retail Seowon Distribution Fishery Cooperatives and Logistics and CS Logistics standards

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Distributors Yearbook

(unit Trillion KRW )

304(80)

74(20)

2015

368

283(81)

68(19)

2012

295(80)

73(20)

2014

359

289(80)

70(20)

2013

351

2016

378

275(81)

340

65(19)

25

33

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

27

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

26

SMSSM

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 79

Commercial facilities market trends

The Online market is rapidly growing more than 10 every year and purchase channel is shifting from computer to mobile

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 procurement channel wise)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association

(Unit Trillion KRW )

2016

657

2013

397

244(45)

295(55)

317(70)

135(30)

452

2014

356(54)

301(46)

2015

539

59(15)

338(85)

2012

366

26(7)

340(93) 919

-30

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

MobilePC

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 80

Commercial facilities market trends

In looking at the business types the growth of online stores is led by the expansion of open market and social commerce

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 by business type)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association and Justice Committee Meeting

(Unit Trillion KRW )

254(56)

300(56)

328(50)215

(60)233

(59)

2016

657

98(15)

230(35)

2012

358

19(5)

124(35)

2015

539

80(15)

159(29)

2014

452

55(12)

143(32)

2013

397

34(9)

130(33)

505

167

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

OthersSocial commerceOpen market

112

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 81

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 82

Investment market trends

REITs market has expanded to 25 Trillion KRW In recent years REITs are mostly by Private Offers

Trends in scale of domestic REITs market

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

공모 사모

4 8 10 12 14 18 20 36

50 69 71

80 98

125

169

리츠수

(AUM Standards Unit Trillion KRW individuals)

06 10 14 17 33 50 4970

7682 95

117149

180

245

Funds REITsPublicOffer

PrivateOffer

Source NRI Analysis KORAMCO Korea Financial Investment Association

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 83

Investment market trends

The market has been gradually changing for the past 10 years shifting the focus from CR-REITs to externally-managed REITs

Trends in composition ratio of domestic REITs

(総資産基準 )

1000 1000 1000

637541 707

650

694 644 630527 404 367

309

208

363459

293340 300 346 337

427563 605 667

780

10 07 10 33 45 33 28 24 12

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠 위탁관리리츠 자기관리리츠Corporate

Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

Source NRI Analysis REITs Information System

(Level of total assets )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 84

Investment market trends

With the reduction of composition ratio of CR-REITs the composition ratio of listed REITs is also reduced to 14

Trends in proportion of domestic and listed REITs

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠

위탁관리리츠

자기관리리츠

778

1000937

783

588

367 329

174104 127 122 122 89 59

14

系列1(Level of total assets )

Proportion of listed REITsCorporate Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

The real estate prices were calculated keeping the index as on December 2015 as 100 and beneficiary rate was calculated based on the Housing Price Index

Source NRI Analysis Factset Bloomberg Kookmin Bank Korea Investment amp Securities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 85

Investment market trends

In looking at the each sectors the diversification of REITs assets is growing including domains such as retail logistics and hotel

44

31 3223

1622

29

46

100

50

7571

100

2861

45

3150 40

38

25

50

2529

17

8

9

8

1819

1713

6

8

56

10 99

8

7 9

5 55 5

22

4 4 1 2

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

기타

호텔

물류 공장

리테일

오피스

주택

(unit )

Others

Hotel

LogisticsFactory

Retail

Office

House

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (numbers of REITs)

Source NRI based on Korea Financial Investment Association Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport Korea Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts KORAMCO

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 86

Investment market trends

In looking at AUM basis the majority of REITsrsquo assets are still by the offices and housing

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (AUM-based)

(AUM 基準 )

05 08 12 13 23 37 36 44 49 5671 81 89 89

112

1013 12

19 1718

1723

27 29

35

00

07 09 0604

05

2449

83

0103

08

09

13

15

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

오피스 리테일 주택 기타オフィス リテール 住宅 その他

Source NRI Analysis Korea Financial Investment Association KAREIT

AUM standards Office Retail Housing Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 87

Investment market trends

The margin ratio of REITs is 6 range having less fluctuations than the other financial instruments

REITs dividend yield ratio

(単位 )

85 66 84122 119

404

280 261

86 83 71 92 62 81 66

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

국고채 10년 기준금리 리츠수익률 코스피수익률(YoY)

Source NRI Analysis

T-Bill (10yr) Base rate REITs margin ratio

KOSPIMargin ratio

(YoY)Unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 88

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 89

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 90

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The area of the dominated territory of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is equals to that of Kyushu and with 23 million

90

Country name Republic of China (Founded Oct 10 1912)(The relocation of the Chinese Nationalist Party to Taiwan was in 1949)

Era name Minguo (2017 AD= Minguo 106)

Capital Taipei City (Population 269 million)

Major cities Shinipei City (Population 398 million) Taoyuang City (217 million) Taichung City (278 million) Tainan City (189 million) Kaohsiung City (278 million)

Area Approx 36197 km2 (2016 A bit little smaller than Kyushu Japan)

Population Approx 2355million (as of Jul 2017)

Ethnic Composition Han Race 98 Aboriginal 2

Currency New Taiwan dollar (NTD) 1 NTD=Approx 366 yen (As of Jul 2017)

Nominal GDP USD 5299 billion (2016)

Nominal GDP per capita USD 22540 (2016)

No of Japanese residents 21887 (as of Oct 2016)

Number of Japanese companies Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Taipei member firms 466 (Mar 2017)

Number of travelers between Japan

From Japan to Taiwan from Japan 190 million (2016)From Taiwan to Japan from Taiwan 430million (2016)

Overview of Taiwan

Matsu Kinmen Region

Penghu Islands

CapitalTaipei

TaichungCity

Kaohsiung City

Tainan City

ShinpeiCity

TaoyuangCity

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 91

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population of childbearing age has reached the apex The total population is predicted to decrease after 2020 and thus the issue of population decline has emerged

Population has been expected to reach the peak in around 2025 and after that population in Taiwan may decease gradually

Population in Taiwan by age-group

Popu

latio

n (th

ousa

nd))

Source NRI based on the CEPD Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

5739 5716 5525 5076 4703 4259 3624 3188 3062 3038 2851

11361 12621 13607 14650 15652 16295 17050 17366 16847 15998 15161

766 977

1269 1631

1921 2217 2488 2939 3788 4698 5574

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-64 Ages 65 or overlarrActual Forecastrarr

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 92

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population density in Taiwan is approximately twice as that in Japan

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in population distribution

Land area

36197

377972

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2016)

(kmsup2)

Total population

24

127

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

Population density

651

335

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

x 19

(百万人) (人 kmsup2)

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 93

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

GDP per capita of Taiwan is about 67 of that of Japan and income level is 83

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in the scale of economy

Exchange rate (Date Dec 2015)1USD = 11605 YEN1USD = 32171 NTD

GDP

5299

49386

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(億ドル)

GDP Per capita

22540

38917

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

Household income

38960

47031

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(ドル) (ドル)

X 083

X 058

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 94

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Taiwanrsquos economy showed negative growth during IT bubble of 2001 and the financial crisis after Lehman Shock of 2009 but it quickly returned to stable growth trend

Since 2010 European debt crisis has worsened the global economy In the meanwhile US Domestic manufacturing has growth and the Chinas ldquoRed Supply Chainrdquo has risen Accordingly Taiwanrsquos export decreased which causes decline in GDP growth rate

Taiwanrsquos GDP growth rate slightly declined at the level of around 15 while is expected to increase 122

GDP growth rate in Taiwan

-165

526

367

619

470 562

652

070

-157

1063

380

206 22

402

072148

211 227

-5

0

5

10

15

()

(y)

Forecast

Source NRI based on the DGBAS Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 95

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The cross-strait relationship has improved greatly since 2008 While after 2016 the interaction between these two countries may reduce

History of Cross-strait relationshipMay 2008 Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party becomes the 12th President of Taiwan

Jul Chinese tourists to Taiwan was deregulated (Group tour)Dec The Three Links (Liberalization in commerce transportation and postal service) is implementedDec Cross-Strait Conference on the Cooperation and Exchange of the Chinese Medicine Industry which is the project representing the cross-

strait industrial bridge was held in Taipei

Apr 2009 The third summit meeting of cross-strait contact points was held A memorandum on cross-strait financial cooperation (concerning banks securities and insurances) was signed and chartered flights were decided to be increased and become scheduled

Jul Chinese investment into Taiwan was deregulated (63 kinds in manufacturing 24 in service and 11 in public works was released to be invested by Chinese)

Nov Cross-Strait financial MOU was signed (Put into effect in January 2010)

Jun 2010 The Fifth ChenndashChiang summit was held Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was signed and 267 Chinarsquos products and 539 Taiwanrsquos products are listed in the tariff concessions

Jan 2011 Started waiving import tariffs (so-called Early Harvest list)

Nov Both sides agreed on industry cooperation in following segments (LED Municipal Wireless Cold Chain Logistics TFT-LCD EV)

Aug 2012 The customs authorities of Taiwan and China signed a Cross-Strait Customs Cooperation Agreement regarding customs service smuggling crackdown and tariff reduction

Aug Both sides reached a consensus to promote a mechanism of transparency information loosing investment limitations to promote prosperity

Jun 2013 The Cross-Strait Agreement in Trade in Services based on WTO framework is signed It proposes opening up over 100 services sectors in phases

Mar 2014 Taiwans ruling Kuomintang party attempted a unilateral move in the Legislative Yuan to force the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement to the legislative floor without giving it a clause-by-clause review Such an action occurred An Anti-Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement demonstration on the next day

April Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng visited the occupied parliament chamber and promised to postpone review of the trade pact until legislation monitoring all cross-strait agreements has been passed

May 2016 Since 20th May 2016 Ing-wen Tsai has begun her presidency and claimed that the relationship between Taiwan and China in the next four years will remain steady

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 96

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Although the current Taiwan-China relation is not as warm as before the number of flight between these countries is higher than between Hong Kong and China

No of Destinations in China 2017 No of flights to China 2017

1178

1312

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

HK

Taiwan

47

71

46

55

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

HK

Taiwan

No of destinations between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

No of flights between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

Unit FlightsweekUnit Destinations

Source NRI based on the Civil Aeronautics Administration of the MOTC ROC(Taiwan) and Airport Authority Hong Kong

The estimation is based on the public release the of Civil Aviation Administration of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 97

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 98

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

Following 8 areas compose major office districts in Taipei City

Major office areas in Taipei City

Hsin YiWorld Trade Centerbull Redeveloped under the Hsin Yi Development Plan Area with the

highest office rent level in Taipeibull Highly convenient due to the large concentration of administrative

financial trade exhibitory leisure and residential functionsbull Offices of global companies such as IBM and Microsoft located

Neihu Science Park districtbull The area Government aims to develop as a

science park districtbull Holding a large concentration of IT industry

headquartersbull Its traffic convenience has improved due to the

extension of MRT

Dun Hua NMinshengbull Having the second largest concentration of

luxury offices (Hsin Yi area is the largest) and being home to many financial service industries

bull Traffic convenience significantly improved after the SongShan airport became an international airport

Dunnanbull Holding a large number of well-known companies and foreign firmsbull Holding many financial companies as well as many traditional

industriesbull With its traffic convenience having developed to be a complex of

residential and commercial area

Songjiang Nanjingbull Area with the highest office density in Taipeibull Holding a large number of offices of Japanese

firms as well as traditional industries financial services and travel industries

Taipei station areabull Area centering Taipei station where the lines of

Taiwan Railways MRT and the High Speed Rail intersect

bull The first area in Taipei City where offices were developed with a large concentration of financial insurance industries and government institutions

Taipei station

area

Hsin YiWorld Trade

Center

Zhong Shan Northbull A large concentration of offices commercial

facilities and hotelsbull Many offices of Japanese firms are also

located

Taipei SongShanAirport

Nanjing Fuxingbull A class offices are concentrated in this area

providing comprehensive commercial financial services

bull The opening of MRT Songshan-Xindian Line in 2014 has made making journeys even more convenient

Zhon

gSh

an N

orth

Song

jiang

Nan

jing

Dun

Hua

M

ings

heng

Dun

nan

NeihuScience

Park district

Fusi

ng N

anjin

g

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 99

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

A number of great office buildings were completed in 2014 in Zhong Shan and Nan Gang district and thus more than 40000 tsubo of office spaces were provided In the meanwhile the office demand in Taipei grow Consequently there is a downward trend in the vacancy rate of office buildings which was below 7 in Q4 2016

By the end of 2017 lsquoTaipei Nan Shan Plazarsquo around Taipei 101World Trade Center Station and the headquarter of Taiwan Cooperative Bank around Nanjing Fuxing Station will be completed and thus 70000 tsubo of new office spaces will be available As a result the vacancy rate of office buildings may remain high

Office vacancy rate rose to more than 9 in 2015

Supply of new offices and vacancy rates in Taipei City

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16New supply (left axis) Vacancy Rate (right axis)Completion of Taipei 101

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Completion of FargloryFinancial Center

The headquarter buildings of Taiwan Cooperative Bank and China Trust were completed

Area

of n

ew s

uppl

y (P

ing)

Vaca

ncy

rate

()

Source NRI based on the Taiwan real estate yearbookNote The bar chart indicates the total area of annual new supply

New office buildings under

construction

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 100

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The average A-class office rental prices of CBD in Taipei is NTD2385 per tsuboper month (around yen8603 per tsubo per month)

Overview of major office areas (Q2 2017)

District Supply floor space (Tsubo)

A-class office Vacancy rate

()

B-class office Vacancy rate

()

A-class office avg rent

(NTDTsubomonth)

B-class office avg rent

(NTD Tsubo month)

Taipei station district 60310 55 15 2200 1706

Chung Shan North district 32932 -- 47 -- 1747

Songjiang Nanjing district 260955 182 84 1995 1762

Minsheng Dun Hua N district 262776 90 55 2277 1755

Dun HuaJen-Ai district 175763 70 42 2450 1787

Xinyi district 311328 102 31 3001 1721

Average rent 2385 NTDTsubomonth

Source NRI based on CBRE data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 101

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The number of office construction license issuance decreased significantly in the first half year of 2016 Accordingly the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

The number of construction license issuance has reduced since 2014 and thus the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

Source NRI based on statistics by the CPAMI ROC(Taiwan)

Number of office construction license issuance and total floor space licensed for construction in Taipei City

444080

926739

544258

207831

314769

461971 438809 416413 394913

1123336

556589

364330

273704

542545

408558 416577

116354 -

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Floor area squares (right asix)

License amount(left axis)

Jan-Jul

No

of c

onst

ruct

ion

licen

se is

sued

Tota

l hou

ses

spac

e of

con

stru

ctio

n lic

ense

issu

ed (m

2 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 102

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The existing offices in Taipei metropolitan are mainly located in central Taipei The outer metropolitan region such as Zin-Ban Fuchung Area and Nankang Area have been regenerated in the

recent years Accordingly the number of new office buildings has increased in these areas

Three new CBDs around central Taipei have been developed recently and thus the supply of commercial buildings is predicted to increase

TaipeiMain Sta

XimenArea

DunpeiAreaNanjing E

Rd Area

XinyiArea

NankangArea

Zin-BanFuchung

AreaFar EsternMemorialHospital

Area

Taipei City

DunnanArea

Existing Office Area

New Office Area

Zin-Ban Fuchung Areabull Rent 1300NTDTsubobull Zin-Ban Special Zone is located around

Banqiao station which is a terminal station of TRA MRT Taiwan-HSR

bull The highest office in Shinipei City ldquoFar Eastern Buildingrdquo(50F) has been opened in Jul 2013

MRT Far Estern Memorial Hospital Areabull Rent1200 NTDTsubobull New area of office with almost bran-

new officebull The most famous office of this area

is T-park built by FEG Group

Nankang Areabull Rent1200 -1300 NTDTsubobull This Area is expected as a new CBD of

Taipei because of being a terminal station of TSHR and 2 lines of MRT

bull Numerous offices have been and will be constructed in this area

Shinpei City

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 103

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 104

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

Since Taoyuan has been designated as a special municipality the population of it growth dramatically The Taipei Metropolis is reshaped where 40 of total population live in it

The location and population (2015) of Taipei City Keelung City and Shinpei City

Taipei CityPopulation 269 million

Keelung City Prpulation 037 million

Shinpei City Population 397 million

Taoyuang City Population 217 million

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 105

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a significant population growth in West Taipei Metropolitan area especially in West Shinipei City

Population Changes in Taipei City and Shinipei City over the last 5 years (2011-2015)

Shinpei City

TaoyuanCity

Keelung City

Greater Taipei Area

Taipei CityNew-Town regionDanshui

Linkou

Sanxia

MRT development

region

LegendAvg annual growth rate

-2 le CAGR lt -1-1 le CAGR lt 00 le CAGR lt 11 le CAGR lt 22 le CAGR lt 3

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 106

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The population of East and West Shinipei City and the central Taoyuan City has increased greatly which lead to soaring property prices in these areas

CAGR of the Land Price of Residential District in Taipei Metropolitan over the last 5 years (2013~2017)

Legend

0 le CAGR lt 2

2 le CAGR lt 4

4 le CAGR lt 6

6 le CAGR lt 8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 107

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The construction of MRT is one of the causes of the accelerating urban sprawl

MRT construction status around Taipei Metropolitan Area

【Distance from Taipei City 10km】

【Distance from Taipei City 5km】Wugu

Taishan

Xinzhuang

Luzhou

Banqiao

Zhonghe

Xindian

Muzha

Nangang

Neihu

Xizhi

Danshui

Beitou

Dazhi

Sanchong

Danshui

Xin-beitou

Luzhou

New Taipei Industrial Park

YongningDingpu

Fu Jen UnivHuilong

Sanchong

Nanshijiao

Jingan

GutingCKS Memorial Hall

Zimen

MinquanW Rd

Taipei Main

Station

Taipei Zoo

Songshan

Taipei NangangExhibition Center

SongshanAirport

Dapinglin

Xiaobitan

Xindian

To TaoyuanAirport

Banqiao

Elephant Mt

ZhongxiaoXinsheng

Shulin

Line Section Year opened

Neihu-Muzha Line

Zhongshan Junior High School hArr Taipei Zoo Mar 1996

Zhongshan Junior High School hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Jul 2009

Danshui Line Danshui hArr Taipei Main Station Mar 1997

Zhonghe Line Guting hArr Nanshijiao Dec 1998

Xindian Lian Taipei Main Station hArr Xindian Nov 1999

Nangang-Banqiao Line

Longshan Temple hArr Taipei City Hall Aug 1999

Longshan Temple hArr Xinpu Aug 2000

Taipei City Hall hArr Kunyang Dec 2000

Xinpu hArr Yongning May 2006

Kunyang hArr Nangang Dec 2008

Yongning hArr Dingpu Dec 2014

Nangang hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Feb 2011

Luzhou Line Luzhou hArr Zhongxiao Xinsheng Nov 2010

XinzhuangLine

Fu Jen Univ hArr Daqiaotou Jan 2012

Zhongxiao Xinsheng hArr Guting Sep 2012

Huilong hArr Fu Jen Univ Mar 2013

Xinyi Line CKS Memorial HallhArr Elephant Mt Dec 2013

Songshan Line Songshan hArr Ximen Nov 2014

TaoyuanAirport MRT Taipei Main Station hArr Jhongli Mar 2017

Circular Line New Taipei Industrial Park hArr Dapinglin Jun 2018

Wanta Line CKS memorial hall hArr Huilong Dec 2020

Source)NRI based on the MRT Construction Dep Of Taipei City Gov

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 108

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The price of new properties in the centre of Taipei is over 1 million per tsubo And luxury real estate price in Xinyi District even reaches 3 million per tsubo

47-58

24-36

40-56

75-105

60-83

42-65

34-4838-52

43-52

90-13064-8230-40

40-6075-105

74-95

75-106

125-290

34-45

26-40

45-62

48-63

72-107

85-150120-166

113-145

48-75

87-130

45-60

125-285

88-140

72-125

85-140

46-5660-80

88-12550-65

42-63

55-78

Unit housing prices at major areas near MRT station in Taipei City and Shinipei City (Unit10000 NTD Tsubo)

Source NRI based on My Housingcom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 109

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The property price had increased steady since 2003 and reached the apex in 2013 And after that the housing price drops

Transition of housing price index

Source NRI based on Cathay Real Estatersquos Housing Index quarterly report

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Taipei City

Shinpei City

Taoyuang amp Hsinchu Region

Hou

sing

pric

e in

dex Financial Crisis

2011 Practice of Specifically Selected Goods and Services Tax Act2012 Practice of Registering the Actual Transaction Price of Real Estate2016 Practice of Consolidated Housing and Land Taxes

Note2010=100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prices of 2017 Q2Taipei City 8199 thsdTsuboShinpei City 3459 thsd TsuboTaoyuang City 2137 thsd Tsubo

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 110

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a downward trend in the number of issued housing construction license of Taipei Shinipei and Taoyuan City and thus the growth rate of new buildings are expected lower than before

While several mega infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the MRT system will be delivered in Shinipei and TaoyuanCity soon and besides Urban Regeneration Act will be modified to make the regeneration process more efficient Therefore housing supply is expected to grow in the long-term

There has been a downward trend in the number of construction license issuance recently in major cities of North Taiwan

The Number of housing construction license issuance

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Taipei City Shinpei City Taoyuang City

(No) (No)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Case No

Householde No

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

NoteThe statistic number of year 2017 only involve that from Jan to Jul

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 111

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The level of the average rental price is extremely low in Taipei City and Shinipei City and cap rates of residential buildings in these two cities ranges between 2 and 35

Cap rates of properties in Taipei City and Shinpei City

Location

Taipei City Shinpei City

Zhongshan Dist(Near MRT Shuanglian Sta)

Neihu Dist(Near MRT Songshan Sta)

Xinyi Dist(Near MRT Taipei 101 World

Trade Center Sta)

Banqiao Dist(Near MRT Baqiao Sta)

Layout 2LDK 2LDK 2LK 2LDK

Area(tsubo) 21 28 25 26

Age(year) 17 11 3 8

Rent(NTDYear) 29 thousand 32 thousand 87 thousand 41 thousand

Price(NTD) 1237 million 1509 million 2580 million 1672 million

Cap rate () 234 212 195 245

Source NRI based on interviews with owners material by 591com etc

Residential building indicate the properties that above 11 floor and have the elevator

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 112

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 113

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

International tourists visiting the Taiwan are composed of 50 Japanese and Chinese Recently the government has planned to attract more tourists from southeast Asia which is regarded as the third

biggest market after Japan and China

The tourist reduces caused by the relationship between two counties to be at a standstill While Taiwan Government is planning to attract tourists from Southeast Asia

The number of foreign tourists to Taiwan (By place of residence)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mainland

Japan

Hong Kong

Southeast Asia

Others Deregulation of group toursof mainland Chinese

Deregulation of individual toursof mainland Chinese

Japan190 million

5058

South-East Asia165 million

28312978

2248

29503378 3520

37163845

4395

5567

6087

7056

8016

9910

2624

10439

10690

Mainland351 million

Hong Kong161 million

Fore

ign

tour

ists

am

ount

(tho

usan

d pe

rson

)

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 114

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of hotel rooms has been increased since 2010 and the number of that reaches 11 thousand and the occupancy rate of accommodation remain high which exceeds 70

The number of guest rooms and occupancy rates of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Note Tourist hotels are hotels that meet the criteria set by the Tourism Bureau of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications and are broken down into international tourist hotels and general tourist hotels according to their levels There are 27 international tourist hotels and 17 standard tourist hotels in Taipei at the end of December 2016

9202 8879 8324 8013 7786 7738 7898 8323 8313 8313 8403 8834 8834

1306 12631263 1263 1383 1357

19742040 2040 2275 2330

2386 2386

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

InternationalTourist Hotels

StandardTourist Hotels

+85+50 -01 +23 +14

0

No

of g

uest

room

7202 7668 7694 7239 6931 7382 7566 7933 7869 8043 7867Std Tourist Hotels

OccupancyRate

6930 7495 7532 7216 7114 7564 7540 7772 7590 7742 7495Intrsquol Tourist Hotels

7722

7696

7689

7111

+45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 115

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of tourists visiting Taipei increases and the hotel prices rise accordingly

The average price of guest rooms of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Aver

age

pric

e of

gue

st ro

oms

(NTD

per

nig

ht)

34113565

38014015 4050

37073848

41074394

4713 4831 4811 4761

1848 1893 1986 2013 2039 21502370

26722931

3133

34723671 3703

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

International tourist hotelStandard tourist hotel

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 116

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 117

(Reference)

Regional Map of Singapore

Core Central Region and Rest of Central Region

NORTH WEST

SOUTHWEST CENTRAL

SINGAPORE

NORTH EAST SOUTH

EAST

Woodlands North Business Park

International Business Park(Jurong Area)

Jurong Island

Changi Business ParkChangi Air HubBedok

Tampines

OrchardSomerse

The MainCommercial AreaIndustrial Park

BugisJurong EastJurong West

DowntownMarina Bay

Core Central Region is postal districts 9 10 11Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa(BlueYellow and Pink)Rest of Central Region is the area within red line except Core Central RegionOutside Central Region is outside the red line of the area

SourceURA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 118

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 119

Population Trend

Population growth for non-residents and permanent residents began to grow rapidly from 1990s while the growth of the citizen base is largely attributed to permanent residents taking up citizenship in Singapore

Singaporersquos open immigration policy has allowed population to increase very rapidly but growth is expected to be moderate with tightening of immigration policy

Population in Singapore (lsquo000)

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics Board amp UN Population Data

Forecast rarrlarrActual

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-Residents

PR

Citizens

Total

A balanced moderate immigration policy is assumed for estimation of population growth from 2016-2050Non Residents includes population residing in Singapore for long-term but do not hold PR or Citizenship (eg EP Worker Pass etc)

CAGR(1970-2015)

99

39

17

28

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 120

Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP

Singapore has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world and far surpasses neighboring countries in the region

GDP per capita is also expected to continue growing from 2017-2020

Source NRI based on IMF

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Nominal GDP per Capita (USD)

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 121

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

Despite the strong GDP per capita figures Singaporersquos growth rate remains volatile due to the nature of its open economy

Effects of business cycles exerts a more pronounced effect on GDP growth rate as the Singapore economy is closely linked to the global trade cycle

Source NRI based on IMF data

Real GDP growth rate of major economies ()

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SingaporeThailand

MalaysiaIndonesia

Dot-com Bubble Burst

Global Financial

Crisis

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Actual Standard Deviation

(2000-2016)

09242542

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 122

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

This is not surprising given that net exports of goods amp services constitute more than one quarter of the Singaporersquos economy

Both domestic amp external consumption (net exports of goods amp services) are volatile and could potentially exhibit relatively large swings in periods of economic growth and recession

Source NRI based Singapore Statistics Board

Share of GDP by Expenditure ()

23 26 27 24 22 25 26 26

2926 26 27 28 27 26 25

10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11

37 36 36 37 37 37 37 37

2011

2 20 3 3

2009 2010 2012

2

2016

345169 376826322361 358517 406242390185 408686

1 0

281090

20142013 2015Net Exports Of Goods And Services

Changes In InventoriesPrivate Consumption ExpenditureGovernment Consumption Expenditure

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 123

Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate stayed in the negative range in 2015 -2016 period as a result of declining oil prices etc but expected to recover in 2017

Inflation rate is expected to stay rise between 05 - 15 in 2017 based on forecasts by economists from various investment banks This will be due to a rise in energy costs as well as fading of the temporary disinflationary effects of budgetary measures

Source NRI based on IMF data

Annual y-o-y change in Singaporersquos CPI ()

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 124

Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate

The SGD has generally been on an appreciating trend being adjusted and watched very closely by the central bank as a tool to keep prices stable

The Singapore Dollar does not exhibit much volatility as it operates under a managed float system within an undisclosed band pegged to an undisclosed basket of currencies

Source NRI based Monetary Authority of Singapore

S$ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER)

Appreciation

Depreciation

S$NEER reflects exchange rates against a basket of currencies instead of any single currencyIndex Jan 1999 = 100

05

055

06

065

07

075

08

085

98

103

108

113

118

123

128

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD

SG

D

S$N

EER

IND

EX

USDSGD

S$NEER

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 125

Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance

In spite of the relatively high level of government debt Singapore continues to be a net creditor country with AAA ratings from international credit rating agencies

Borrowings by the Singapore are matched by even higher levels of assets and the country does not run any fiscal deficits

The government is instead borrowing in order to issue debt securities which are required in the domestic bond market to provide a risk-free benchmark against other corporate debt securities

Ratio of Government Debt to GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Source NRI based on IMF data

Ratio of Government Primary Net LendingBorrowing to GDP ()

Forecast rarrlarrActual

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2017 2019 20212015 20182012 201620142009 2011 20202013

Singapore

IndonesiaMalaysia

Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 126

Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks

Consistently ranked among the top 10 countries with the lowest public perception of corruption political risks in Singapore remains low

Low political risks is one of the factors in Singapore that have contributed to a conducive environment for business amp investment

Source NRI based on Transparency International Data

Trend of Transparency International Corruption Perception Index among selected ASEAN Countries (2016)

Top 10 countries of International Corruption Perception Index(Higher ranking indicates lower risk)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

A lower score indicates greater negative perception of public sector corruption

RANK 2014 2015 2016

1 DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK

2 NEW ZEALAND FINLAND NEW ZEALAND

3 FINLAND SWEDEN FINLAND

4 NORWAY NEW ZEALAND SWEDEN

5 SWITZERLAND NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND

6 SINGAPORE NORWAY NORWAY

7 NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND SINGAPORE

8 INDONESIA SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS

9 LUXEMBORG CANADA CANADA

10 CANADA GERMANY GERMANY

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 127

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 128

Office market- Geographic Area

76 of the existing office is located at CBD area Singapore government extends the Central Business District towards Marina Bay to support the demand of quality office spaces

Major Office Area in Singapore Central Business District

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority Master Plan Mapletree Commercial Trust

Site area (ha)

Total DevelopmentGFA (mil sqm)

Total Office GFA (mil sqm)

31 177 11

85 415 282 (estimated)

24 16 11 (estimated)

Raffles Place

Extension of existing financial district

Recent developments

Office Area in Singapore2015

CBD Core sub-market

50

Fridge CBD26

Decentralised sub-market

24

bull Existing central business district is located at Raffles Place Shenton Way and Tanjong Pagar

bull To position Singapore as one of the leading financial hub government plans to double the size of the existing financial center by extending towards Marina Bay

bull Recent developments is expected to provide more than 11 million sqm of premium office space upon completion

CBD Core sub-market Raffles Place Shenton Way Marina Centre Marina BayFringe CBD Tanjong Pagar Beach Road City Hall Orchard RoadDecentralized sub-market Alexandra HarbourFront Thomson Novena Tampines River Valley

Raffles Place

Shenton Way

TanjongPagar

Marina Bay

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 129

Office market- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate decreased gradually from 2015Q2 to 2016Q2 It has started to increase since 2016Q3 when major office developments were completed

Office Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

7456 7455

7408

7553 7575 7583

7580

7559 7536

7563

7664 7730

7761

7837

10 96

84

102 10298

9695 92 91

104111

116124

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7250

7350

7450

7550

7650

7750

7850

7950

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

rsquo000 sq m nett

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 130

Office market- Price and Rental Index

Office rent has been in downwards trend since 1Q15 due to significant increase in supply in 4Q14 The capital value of office space stagnates due to the downward pressure of the declining rental

Price and Rental Index of Office Space in Central Region

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Price Index Rental Index

Index

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Note 1) The price indices are compiled from information in caveats (A legal document lodged by a purchaser to protect

her his interests after an option to purchased is exercised or a Sales amp Purchase Agreement is signed) lodged at the option stage with the Singapore Land Registry The price in 4Q98 are used as the base reference price of the index

2) Rental Index of office space are obtained from Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS)

bull The Singapore office rental market performed well in 2014 due to tight market conditions However office rental growth has been subdued since the first quarter of 2015

bull Price of office property had been stagnant since the first quarter of 2015 and eventually fall due to underperforming rental market and increasing supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 131

Office market- Future Supply

A sharp rise in office space supply is expected to outstrip the growth in demand in the coming years The pressure on vacancy rate is expected to rise

Pipeline Supply of Office Space in Singapore

367

185

20

138

36 400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 gt2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Property Total Office GFA (lsquo000 sqf)

Expected year of completion

Vision Exchange 475 January 2017

Oxley Tower 130 January 2017

UIC Building 276 April 2017

Marina One 1800 April 2017

Frasers Tower 690 April 2018

Robinson Tower 195 April 2018

Paya Lebar Quarter 8835 December 2018

Central Boulevard 1000 Q2 2020

Golden Shoe Car Park 1000 Q1 2021

Source Corporate Locations

bull Out of the office supply from 2015 Q2 to 2018 Q4 528 is located in the Core CBD 311 in the Fridge CBD and the remaining in the Decentralized sub-markets

bull Around one-fifth of the future supply is sold on a strata-titled basis it means more investment opportunity for investors that are looking for smaller and more affordable individual unit of office space

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 132

Office market- Cap rate

Cap rate of office in CBD area in 2016 is around 38 in average

2016 Capitalization Rate of Office in CBD

3938 39 42 39

3838 38 38 38

00

10

20

30

40

50

Cap rate ()

Source CapitaLand Commercial Trust 2016 annual report Keppel REIT 2016 annual report

REIT Asset Type InvestmentProperties

CapitalandCommercial Trust

bull Office (70)bull Retail (18)bull Hotel and

Convention Centre (12)

By gross rental income

bull Capital Towerbull Six Battery Roadbull One George Streetbull Raffles City Towerbull CapitaGreenbull Twenty Ansonbull HSBC Building

Keppel REIT bull Office bull Ocean Financial Centre

bull Marina Bay Financal Centre

bull One Raffles Quaybull Bugis Junction

Towers

Office REIT in Singapore

bull Capitaland Commercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust Suntec REIT OUE Commercial REIT are the major office REIT in Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 133

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 134

Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling

CAGR of condominiums market is much higher than that of HDB Foreigners cannot purchase of HDB according to Residential Property Act imposing restrictions on foreigners in

1973

More households stay in condominiums and other apartments over the years while the percentage of households living in HDB flats is slowly going down in the last 5 years

9359 9437 9484 9395 9618 9652 9811 10115

1178 1320 1269 1399 1437 1618 1708 1824

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HDB Condominiums amp Other Apartments

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics

Number of Households by Type of Dwelling in Singapore

(lsquo000)

HDBHousing amp Development Board public housing in Singapore

CAGR 562

CAGR 098

Condominiums

HDB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 135

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Around 50 of transactions for units outside Central Region dropped from 2012 to 2014 Several property cooling measures such as introducing 60 cap from 80 on the Total Debt Serving Ratio (DSR)

and 30 cap on the Mortgage Servicing Ratio(MSR) in 2013 badly affected the number of sales transactions

Dramatically dropped the demand for Private Residential Units since 2013 due to property cooling measures

(units)

Source NRI based on URA

Number of Sales transactions for Private Residential Units by area

4832 5028 3695 1976 1859

8943 90976861

4058 3828

1886523748

12163

6813 8430

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Core Central Region Rest Central Region Outside Central Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 136

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Minimum Cash Down Payment is getting higher from 10 to 25 when you purchase the 2nd and subsequent Residential property

Foreigners have an obligation to pay 15 ABSD of sales price of residential

Drastic drop of transactions of Private Residential is due to strict restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013 in addition to introduction of higher cap on DSR and MSR

1st Housing 2nd Housing 3rd Housing

LTV Limit 80 or 60 60 or 40rArr50 or 30

60 or 40rArr40 or 20

Minimum Cash Down Payment 5 (for LTV of 80) 10 (for LTV of 60) 10rArr25 10rArr25

BSD1 on first $1800002 on next $1800003 for the remainder

ABSD(Singapore Citizens) Not applicable Not applicable rArr7 3rArr10

ABSD(Foreigners) 10rArr15

LTV Loan to Value BSDhellipBuyerrsquos Stamp DutyABSDhellipAdditional Buyerrsquos Stamp DutyIf the loan tenure is more than 30 years or extends past age 65

Change of Governmental Restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013

Source NRI based on IRAS and MAS

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 137

Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate

From 2013 to 2014 vacant rate got dramatically high compared to the change from 2011 to 2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Occupied Vacant

5061

53

7989 86

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Current Stock and Vacancy of Private Residential Units (Including Executive Condominium)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 138

Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property

Sales Price Index has gradually dropped in 2013 due to higher vacancy rate over the years

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4

Sales Index of Private Residential

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 139

Residential market ndashFuture Supply

The rise in Private Residential Unites can be seen in the next years The number of new Private Residential units seems to decrease at Core Central Region

The supply for Outside Central Region is expected to be the largest for the next 5 years

1850

3578

727 661480

3862

3820

3233 3591

514

4550

7180

54963137

4099

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Core Central Region Rest of Central Region Outside Central Region

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Supply in the Pipeline of Private Residential Units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 140

Residential market-Cap Rate

Capitalization rate has been dropping due to the higher vacancy rate

29 29

24

28

24 2321 21

27 2724

2826

2422 22

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

()

Claymore HillAdmore Park(Upper Class) River Valley(Middle Class)

Capitalization Rate for Upper class and Middle class

Source NRI based on Japan Association of Real Estate Appraisers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 141

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 142

Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate

Vacancy Rate is getting higher which causes gradual increase of availability of floor space after Q1 of 2015

56335698

57175766

58185914

59485973

59495971

5990

6019

60366046

6017

603553

45

58 5965

58

6872 70 72 73

7884

75 77 81

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5400

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

20133Q

20134Q

20141Q

20142Q

20143Q

20144Q

20151Q

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Available Floor Space Vacancy Rate

Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate of Retail

(000 sq m)

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 143

Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space

Those prices were stable until 2014 but due to slowdown of demand for retail space vacancy rate is increasing and affects both of these index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space is going down affected by the higher vacancy rate in every quarter in 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Price Index Rental Index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space in Central Region

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 144

Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore

Thanks to internet accessibility high penetration of mobile devices and strong governmental support for online retailers in Singapore attract consumers to shopping online instead of going all the way to malls

Consumers previously shopped at brick-and-mortal stores now prefer to shift shopping online retailers which causes lower demand for physical shopping spaces

2611

3533

25542338

1446 1563

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Average Top 20 Top 21~40

Top 41~60

Top 61~80

Top 81~100

(SGD)

2015 2025(Estimate)Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Singapore 48 21 81 67Malaysia 91 11 152 54Thailand 113 08 202 55Vietnam 67 06 160 47Philippines 100 05 206 47Indonesia 238 06 575 80

E-Commerce market size in SEA and monthly average amount of Online shopping in Singapore by Income group

Source NRI based on Google Temasek and Department of Statistics of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 145

Retail market-CAP Rate

South East Region has highest Cap Rate according to the CAP Rate of the main malls in Singapore

Retail Capitalization Rate by Core Central Region and Other Regions

50

52

54

56

58

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Central Core Region South EastNorth West South West

Source NRI based on Capital Land Frasers Centerpoiint and SPH REIT

Central Core RegionJunction 8AtriumBugis+ Clarke Quay Paragon Wisma Atria Ngee Ann City Bugis Junction Plaza Singapura

South EastTampines Mall Bedok Point Changi City Point

North WestBukit Panjang Plaza Causeway Point Northpoint Lot One Shopperrsquos Mall Yew Tee Point

South WestJcube Clementi MallData for 2010 and 2011 are not available because Jcubeand Clementi Mall was open in 2011 and 2012 respectively

List of Malls for Capitalization Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 146

Retail market- Future Supply

This is in line with governmentrsquos strategy ldquoWork-Live-Playrdquo solutions decentralizing working and living function to Outside Central Region

New retail supply will be suburbs especially Outside Central Region and large proportion of OCR retail will be in the East

Central34

South East30

NorthWest23

North East13

Project name and location Area Name of Developer Gross Floor Area

Expected year of final TOP

Hotelretail development at Airport Boulevard

SouthEast

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

90000 sq m

na

Northpoint City at Yishun Central 1

North West

North Gem Development Pte LtdFC North Gem Trustee Pte Ltd

39050 sq m

2018

Additionsalterations and extension to existing Singapore Post Centre at Eunos Road 8

South East

Singapore Post Limited 25000 sq m

na

Hillion Mall at Jelebu Road North West

Sim Lian JV (BP Retail) Pte LtdSim Lian JV (BP) Pte Ltd

20490 sq m

na

Officeretail development for Changi Airport Terminal 4 at Airport Boulevard

South East

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

19710 sq m

na

Proportion of Future Retail Supply by locations in 2016-2018 and the 5 largest pipelines in Singapore

Source NRI based on URA IE Singapore DBS

( Based on the sq m)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 147

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 148

Logistics Space- Geographic Area

Most of the warehouse space is located in the eastern and western part of Singapore

Source Google map NRI created based on public information

Hankyu Hanshin Express Singapore ( 1 )

Company name(Number of warehouse)【Legend】

Sumitomo Warehouse (Singapore) Pte Ltd ( 2 )

Sankyu (Singapore) PTE LTD ( 6 )

KEPPEL TampT ( 5 )

MAPALE TREE ( 50 )

SCHENKER SINGAPORE (PTE) LTD ( 11 )

Kintetsu World Express ( 2 )Acsendas ( 23 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 149

Logistics Space- Demand Trend

Manufacturing activities has been expanding in the past 13 months Industrial space market is expected to improve gradually

Singapore Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) Container Traffic of Singapore Port

PMI

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb-

15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb-

16

Apr

-16

Jun-

16

Aug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb-

17

Apr

-17

Jun-

17

Aug

-17

Note Singapore PMI measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 400 industrial companiesSource Singapore Institute of Purchasing amp Materials Management (SIPMM)

279299

259284

299316

326339

309 309

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

million TEUs

Source Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 150

Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate reduced gradually from 2016Q3 to 2017Q1 but increased in the most recent quarter following the higher rate of increase in warehouse space supply

Warehouse Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

79 82 83 84 85 86 87 89 91 93 94 95 96 101

89

115

96

82

100

84

75

86

96

110 109

103101

119

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Thousands sq m

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 151

Logistics Space- Rental Index

Warehouse rental is on the downward trend in recent years

Rental Index of Warehouse in Singapore

Index

Note 1) Before 4th Quarter 2014 the rental index is computed based on transactions in the Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 the scope of the rental index is expanded to

include transactions outside Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 and 1st Quarter 2016 the weights used are fixed using 2012 and 2015 transaction values respectively

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 152

Logistics Space- Future Supply

There will be a total of 084 million sqm GFA of warehouse space expected to be completed by 2021 and a surge in supply in 2017

Pipeline Supply of Warehouse in Singapore

394

162135 140

130

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Project Description Name of Developer GFA (sq m)

Expected year of completion

Poh Tiong Choon Logistics Hub at Pandan Road

Poh Tiong ChoonLogistics Ltd 50940 2017

Warehouse Development at Benoi Road GKE Warehousing amp Logistics Pte Ltd 39760 2017

Warehouse Development at PioneerRoad

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 71680 2017

Warehouse Development at JalanAhmad Ibrahim Tuas Avenue 1

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 44310 2018

JTC Logistics Hub Gul Circle JTC Corporation 95310 2019

Warehouse Development at Tuas South Avenue 14

Diamond Land Pte Ltd 65230 2020

Major Projects in the Pipeline as of 2017 Q2

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 153

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 154

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)

Visitor arrivals into Singapore has been increasing steadily since the 2008 global recession with numbers reaching stable levels in recent years

The increase in visitors can be attributed to increasing flight capacities into Singapore especially new direct connecting flights to secondary Chinese cities as well as an increase low-cost carriers (LCC) within SEA region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore (millions) (by mode of transport) (2007-2016)

103 10197

116

132

145

156151 152

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Land

Sea

Air

Total

CAGR 45 164

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 155

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)

Indonesia China Malaysia amp Australia constitute the top four largest countries for visitor numbers in Singapore

Visitor numbers from these countries have remained in the top four ranking boosted by the services of regional low cost-carriers in the region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Top visitors by nationalities () 2010-2014

197 1960 198 200 179

120 1400 146 114 138

87 850 8282 77

73 720 7271 69

523 507 502 533 537

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Indonesia China Malaysia Australia Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 156

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)

More than half of the visitors into Singapore are here for leisure purposes and 1 in 5 are here for business purposes

The high percentage of visitors coming to Singapore for leisure purposes suggests that initiatives to boost tourism in Singapore has been considerably successful in attracting visitors into the country

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Main Purpose of Visit () 2015

58 59 56

43

77

2013

1333

812 20

2115

6

10 8 10 9 9

Total Indonesia China Malaysia Australia

Leisure Business Others Not stated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 157

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)

Indeed though visitor numbers are relatively stable throughout the year they tend to peak during festive occasions or promotional periods

The peak from June to August can be attributed to the annual Great Singapore Sale an event organized by Singapore Tourism Bard amp Singapore Retailers Association to promote tourism in Singapore

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore

Great Singapore Sale

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20162013

2011

2009

F1 Grand Prix

End-of year

Holidays

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 158

Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply

While hotel room supply continues to increase each year post-recession occupancy rates have also stabilized staying close to 85 levels

Recent significant additions to hotel supply include Westin Singapore Marina Bay (2014) Sofitel So Singapore (2014) Holiday Inn Express (2014) amp Patina Hotel (2015)

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Available Room Nights (lsquo000) amp Occupancy Rate ()

84858686878685

81

76

12378

2010

11262

14241

2013

13118

10589

2015

15131

20142012

12451

2011

+54

2016

16162

2009

10875

2008

Average Occupancy Rate ()Available Room Nights

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 159

Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue

With the exception of luxury segment all other room segments are witnessing slight declines in room rates and RevPar

This downward pressure on rates and revenues is expected to continue as the influx of new hotel rooms continue for the next few years

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Average Room Rates by Room Segment (S$)Average Revenue per Available Room (RevPar) (S$) by Room Segment

4314 43594618 4491 4482

3014

2685 2668 2651 2612

1971 1906 1852 1749 1698

1107 1004 1098 1050 987

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

35183840

40433885 3812

2647

2307 2325 2282 2216

1708 1650 1573 1495 1453

940 846 878 833 777

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

Luxury - Includes hotels in the luxury segment and are predominantly in prime locations andor in historical buildings Upscale - Includes hotels in the upscale segment and are generally in prime locations or hotels with boutique positioning in prime or distinctive location Mid-Tier - Includes hotels in the mid-tier segment and are primarily located in prime commercial zones or immediately outlying areasEconomy - Includes hotels in the budget segment and are generally located in outlying areas

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 160

Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline

The hotel industry in Singapore braces itself for a large supply influx of new rooms with more than 2000 rooms slated to be completed by end of 2017 alone

The influx of new rooms is the greatest since the completion of the two integrated resorts in Marina Bay Sands (MBS) amp Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in 2010 and 2011 respectively

Source NRI based on various sources Straits Times TODAY etc

Source NRI based on Urban Redevelopment Authority

Number of Hotel Rooms in the Pipeline Selected RecentFuture Hotel Developments (2017)

60908

2565

2464

1331

182

342

582344

58000

60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber o

f hot

el ro

oms

Existing Under Construction

Planned (Written Permission) Planned (Provisional Permission)

ExpectedCompletion Year Hotel Name No of

Rooms

2017 JW Mariott Hotel Singapore South Beach 634

2017 The Warehouse Hotel 37

2017 Ascott Orchard Singapore 220

2017 Park Hotel Farrer Park 300

2017 Santa Grand Hotel Boat Quay 41

2017 Sofitel Singapore City Centre 223

2017 Andaz Singapore 342

2017 Courtyard by Marriott Singapore Novena 250

2017 The Duxton Club 49

2017 YOTEL Singapore 600

2017 Novotel Singapore on Stevens 254

CAGR 31

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 161

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 162

REIT Market

S-REIT has grown rapidly since the successful launch of the first REIT in 2002 S-REIT market capitalization has now attained a scale of USD 556 billion

Market Capitalization of REIT In USD Billion 2002- 2017

There are 38 listed REITs as of the end of June 2017

Source NRI based on Capital IQ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 163

REIT Market

Recent yield spread between S-REIT has also stayed close to 5

Although the S-REIT dividend yield rose sharply in 2009 due to fears that the mortgage crisis would spread to Singapore it has remained at approximately 7 since then

Source NRI based on Bloomberg

Average S-REIT dividend yield and spread with 10-year Singapore government bond

()

0

5

10

15

20

25

Spread 10-year SGB Yield Average Dividend Yield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 164

REIT Market

Retail Industrial and Office REIT are the major type of REIT in Singapore S-REITs also diversify into residential hotel amp resort healthcare and data center industry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized

Market Capitalization of REIT by Asset TypeIn USD Billion 2003- 2017

Asset Composition (2017)

SpecializedHealthcareHospitalityResidentialDiversified

Office

Industrial

Retail

18348232

122

160

245

306

1 Office1 Industrial 2 Retail

1 Healthcare1 Hospitality1 Residential1 Diversified3 Office4 Industrial 5 Retail

2 Healthcare1 Hospitality2 Residential1 Diversified3 Office7 Industrial 7 Retail

1 Specialized2 Healthcare5 Hospitality1 Residential4 Diversified6 Office9 Industrial 9 Retail

Number of REIT by asset type

Source Capital IQ

Chart1

Retail
Industrial
Office
Diversified
Residential
Hospitality
Healthcare
Specialized
4919
2929
0
0
0
0
0
0
12344
6189
5458
0
0
0
0
0
24064
15716
7312
9248
0
0
0
0
35082
20048
14636
11758
3173
0
0
0
72317
42532
34987
1854
7953
1223
1446
0
6508
3439
26179
1561
762
10519
6422
0
4945
28821
20857
10018
3758
4861
5197
0
76738
47631
39742
17782
6188
1220
7522
0
104025
87777
5322
27407
12393
16405
13105
0
112013
93221
56364
24259
11898
1450
13616
0
130698
107712
68086
47917
15109
31961
17999
0
159443
115798
80495
64488
1741
4230
18342
0
163131
109375
75232
6225
16744
45395
18358
6831
168423
127015
82747
6425
13784
41719
19079
7627
172877
138636
90674
69255
18147
46492
18982
1031

Sheet1

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 165

REIT Market

S-REITs have geographically diversified portfolio with 36 of international asset

S-REIT Geographical Coverage by Asset ValueIn 2016

Singapore64

Hong Kong10

China6

Australia New

Zealand6

Japan South Korea

4

India3

Europe2

US1

Other Asia4

36 of the total asset value of Singapore REITs is contributed by foreign property asset

Overseas property assets are mainly located in Hong Kong China Australia and New Zealand

Geographically diversified portfolio is driven by these factorsbull Singapore-based REIT have to venture overseas market

due to the limited domestic real estate market Furthermore S-REIT is granted tax exemption on qualifying foreign-sources income from overseas property As of 2015 22 out of 34 S-REITs hold foreign real estate

bull Favorable tax environment in Singapore actively attracts foreign REIT to list in the country

Source DBS Bank

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 166

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 167

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 168

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population is around 66 million people Thailand is currently under military coup and the current reign of King Rama X started since October 2016

Source Department of Provincial Administration Official Statistics Registration Systems BMA Data Center The Bureau of Registration Administration Bank of Thailand Office of Ethnic Affairs National Real Estate Information Center

Country Name The Kingdom of Thailand

National Characteristic

Population 65931550 people (As of 2017)

Religion Buddhism (946) Islamism (42) Christianity (11) Hinduism Sikhism and Others (01) (As of 2014)

Ethnic Composition

Thai (987) Sino-Tibetan (08) Austroasiatic (03) Malayo-Polynesian (02) (As of 2012)

Political Structure

Political System Constitutional democracy

Head of State King Vajiralongkorn (King Rama X)

Head of Government Prime minister - General Prayut Chan-ocha

No of Ministries 20 ministries

Geographical Characteristic

Land Area 513208 kmsup2 (Japan = 377962 kmsup2)

Capital City Bangkok - Population 10765226 people (as of 2016)

Time Zone (UTC+0700) Bangkok Hanoi Jakarta

OthersCurrency Thai baht (100 Yen = 309084 Thai baht) (As of 10 April 2017)

Language Thai (Official language)

Overview of ThailandThailandrsquos map

Northern

NortheasternCentral

Eastern

West

South

Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 169

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos economy shows sign of recovery and is expected to expand continuously

Source IMF

14 17

-11

-54

42

-01

1520

03

12 10 1206 08

02 07 06

50 54

17

-07

75

08

72

27

09

29 32 30 33 32 31 30 30

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

Japan Thailand

It is expected that the growth of GDP of Thailand will be driven primarily from fiscal stimulus and tourist receipts The government policy about public investment in infrastructure advanced manufacturing and innovation-driven

projects recovery in services and private consumption could also underpin growth

GDP annual growth rate of Japan and Thailand in 2006-2022f

ForecastActual

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 170

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Service sector is a driver for GDP growth

GDP by Sector 2006-2015 (Current Value)

790 849 978 946 1138 1311 1422 1463 1330 1193

3299 3589 3843 37394325 4305 4625 4779 4878 4975

43124638

4886 4974

53465691

63106680 6996 7505

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector( as of 2015)

Services(5489)

CAGR 57

Industry(3639)

CAGR 42

Agriculture(872)

CAGR 42

Source World Bank Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 171

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Bangkok and vicinities have been the central of business in Thailand generating almost half of national GDP

Source Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

Gross Regional Product of Thailand 2006-2015

3915 4172 4380 4351 4774 4931 5377 5688 6027 6397

1481 1704 1812 1716

1966 2028 2255 2308

2392 2405

733 800 830 939

1055 1151 1278

1373 1312 1328

823 858

911 876

1069 1185

1163 1168 1141

1199

635 669

753 763

860 926

1102 1116 1100

1069

491 537

657 634

691 657

720 807 763

789

322 337

364 380

394 428

462 460 470

486

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities Eastern North Eastern Southern Northen Central Western

Eastern which ranks the second GDP generator is the special economic zone of the project Eastern Seaboard and the project Eastern Economic Corridor

Region( as of 2015)

Northeastern (971)

Eastern (1759)

Central (577)

Southern (877)

Northern (782)

Bangkok andvicinities (4679)

Western (356)

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 172

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos GDP per capita has been growing from 2006-2016 Among ASEAN it ranks the fourth after Singapore Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia

GDP per capita 2005-2016 ndash Thailand

128137

146 144160 167

182 189 191 197 204

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source IMF

52755

21497

9811

59403620 2978 2174 1865 1416 1235

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000THB thousands USD

GDP per capita 2016 ndash ASEAN countries

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 173

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Since flooding in Bangkok in 2011 interest rate has consistently declined to 150 and it is expected to stay at this level to boost Thai economic growth

Source Bank of Thailand

500

125150

487

212

504

583

272

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Rate T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 5 years T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 10 years

Rates at the end of month

Thailand interest rate in 2007-2017

Bank of Thailand announced to remain the implementation of the Expansionary Monetary Policy in order to strengthen Thailand economic situation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 174

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

THB had shown the depreciation against JPY after reaching the strongest point in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Exchange rate between THB to 100 JPY and THB to USD to THB in 2006-2017

Debt crisis in EuropeSubprime mortgage crisis in US Quantitative easing program implementation in Japan

3578

2907

3445

3048

2766

4104

2711

3128

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USD to THB 100 JPY to THB

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 175

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population has continually been aging and is expected to be aged society within 2025

National population by gender and age group in 2005 and 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Thailand 2005 Thailand 2015 Japan 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Source UN National Statistical Office

In 201518 of total population are 0-14 year age group and 10 are people over 65 years old It is predicted that within 2025 the proportion of age group of over 65 years will be 16 of total population defining

Thailand as aged society

(Thousands people)(Thousands people) (Thousands people)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 176

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

The number of households in Thailand is increasing while the family size tends to reduce The type of family changes from extend family to nuclear one

Thailand average household size in 2006-2015

Source Population and housing census Thailand National Real Estate Information Center

In 2016 Thailand has 21326000 households in total There is an increase in numbers of households in Bangkok and vicinities whereas the number of household in North Eastern which is the highest one has declined

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities North Eastern Northen

Southern Eastern Western

Central

Thousands households

34 3432 32 33 32 33 32 31

29

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Persons

Number of households by regions 2006-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 177

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Family living in Bangkok and vicinities earned the highest amount of income

Source National Statistical Office

Average annual household income in different regions in 2007-2015

RegionAverage annual household income (THB thousand)

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bangkok and vicinities 327 346 347 395 437

Eastern 227 240 271 317 332

Central 226 280 268 345 305

Southern 233 263 314 326 303

North Eastern 153 178 215 220 248

Western 193 214 205 256 245

Northern 157 186 203 232 234

Average 21657 24386 26043 29871 30057

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 178

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Household consumption House andor land Farming Business Education Others

163087

116681

134699 134900

156770

THB

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailand household debt to GDP decreased in 2017 but it is still considered at high level Household consumption and housing were the main purposes of borrowing

Average household debt to GDP in 2008-2017

517 524

579 593

662

718765

799 812 799

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average debt per household by purposes in 2007-2015

Thailand household debt to GDP had been rising for a decade and just showed the sign of decline due to the growth in GDP and shrinking in personal loan resulting from more stringent loan standard by banks

Spending on household consumption and house andor land contributed around 70 of average household debt in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 179

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Electric train transport will cover most areas of BKK within 2022 3 international airports (Don Mueang Suvarnabhumi and U-Tapao) will be linked by Airport Rail Link

Mass Rapid Transit System (MRT)

Source Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand

Line Route Start construction Open service

Current MRT network

Airport Rail Link Phaya Thai ndash Suvannabhumi Operating

Green Mo Chit ndash BearingNational Stadium ndash Bangwa Operating

Blue Bang Sue ndashHualumpong OperatingPurple Bang Yai ndash Bang Sue Operating

Planned projects

Dark RedThammasat University ndash Rangsit 2015 2018Rangsit ndash Bang Sue 2015 2020

Hua Lampong ndash Maha chai Planned Planned

Light RedTaling Chan ndash Bang Sue 2015 2018Bang Sue ndash Makksan - Hua Mak 2015 2018

Airport Rail Link Don Muang ndash Bang Sue ndash Phaya Thai 2015 2019

Dark GreenMo Chit - Khu Khot 2015 2020Bearing - Samutprakarn ndash Bangpu 2012 2019

Light GreenTaling Chan - Bangwa 2016 2021National Stadium ndash Yod Sae Planned Planned

BlueTha Phra - Bang Sue 2011 2019Hua Lumpong ndash Bang Kae 2011 2019Bang Kae - Putthanomthon Sai 4 2017 2021

Purple Taopun ndash Ratchburana 2012 2019

Orange Taling Chan ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Pink Khae Rai ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Yellow Lao Phro ndash Samrong 2017 2020Gold Krung Thonburi ndash Prachatipok 2017 2020Grey Vacharaphol ndash Wutthakat - -

Airport Rail Link Don Mueang - Suvarnabhumi - U-Tapao - -

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 180

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 181

Office market

Office market in Bangkok is concentrated in CBD Inner Bangkok and currently has been spreading to city fringe considered to be potential new CBD

Core Central Business District(Asoke Phloen Chit Sathon

Siam Silom area)

bull Inner Bangkok areabull Largest office districtbull Densely occupied by government

offices embassies financial firms and corporate headquarters

bull High rent costbull Limited supply

Potential new Central Business District

(Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 area)

bull Located the north east of the core CBD

bull Lower rent costbull More available supplybull Future hub of transport

Business districts in Bangkok

Due to the scarcity of land for development in CBD and the expansion of mass transit system to surrounding areas the area in city fringe such as Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 has been developed to be another business district

Source NRI analysis

Map of Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 182

Thousand Sqm

15

29

132

96

116107

135

146 143

118

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net new supply Net demand

Office market

The demand is expected to increase due to business expansion and governmentrsquos policy encouraging new business set-up and investment promotion

Bangkok office accumulated supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2016

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Bangkok annual net new supply and net demand in 2012-2016

Note these figures exclude multi-owner occupied premises and office buildings smaller than 5000 Sqm

Thousand Sqm

4463 4454 4478 4604 4700 4783

3801 3908 4049 4190 4333 4451

852 877 904 910 922 931

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Supply Demand Occupancy rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 183

Office market

The change of occupancy rate of non-CBD Grade A is mainly resulted from the completion of new buildings and the movement of tenants to the new ones The 9th Tower (57618 sqm) AIA Capital Centre (54000 sqm) Bhiraj Tower (32000 sqm) G Tower (66000 sqm)

The decline of amount of occupied space in CBD Grade B buildings might be a result of relocation of tenants from CBD Grade B buildings to new properties in non-CBD area due to rising rents and limited space

Asking rent space availability easy access by mass transit and good quality of office supply with supporting amenities are the factors supporting an increase of renting in non-CBD area

Even though there was more supply added for non-CBD Grade A offices the occupancy rate turned at high level in all areas

Occupancy rate by grade in 2014Q1-2016Q4

0

10

14Q

1

14Q

2

14Q

3

14Q

4

15Q

1

15Q

2

15Q

3

15Q

4

16Q

1

16Q

2

16Q

3

16Q

4

CBD Grade A CBD Grade B Overall Non-CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade B

928953

908

934

904

931

947

823812

927

884

917

80

85

90

95

100

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 184

Office market

Around 77 of the additional volume of supply for the next 3 years will be located in non-CBD area

Number of office building construction permits in CBD and non-CBD

Source Manager newspaper National Real Estate Information Center Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Planned future office supply in CBD and non-CBD 2017-2019

71

123 116 114

103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BuildingsZone Buildings Space

(sqm)

Expected completion

year

CBDGaysorn Office Tower 32000 2017

Samyan Mirttown 7000 2019

Non-CBD

G Tower (North Tower) 50000 2017

MS Siam Tower 48000 2018

Bhiraj Tower at BITEC 42531 2017

Singha Complex 37000 2018

T1 Office building 34000 2018

Shinnawat 4 31880 2017

Ladprao Hills 25087 2017

Aree Hill 23340 2018

Cosmo Office Park 12000 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 185

Office market

Rental rate is trending upwards and this trend is expected to continue in 2017 due to increasing demand and limited supply especially in CBD

736 753823 854

937 960

578 610 630 661723

818

572 593 626 646695

738

558 575 601 607 640 671

420 433 449 461 479 504

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade A Bangkok Average CBD Grade B Non-CBD Grade B

Bangkok office asking rent per square meter by grade in 2011-2016

price at the end of year

In 2016 the overall average asking rent is increasing 62 from 2015 to be THB 738 per sqm The highest rental rate growth is shown in non-CBD Grade A buildings increasing 131

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 186

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 187

Residential Market

Apart from the effect of economic slowdown more stringent mortgage loan criteria by banks significantly affected both buyers and developers especially small and medium-sized investment companies as well as newcomers of the real estate industry resulting in slow pace of sales and supply

Some Thai developers started the joint ventures with foreign companies to bring in innovation to improve construction process architecture and design and to finance projects For example Mitsui Fudosan and Ananda Development AP and Mitsubishi Estate and Sena Development and Hankyu Realty

In October 2015 the stimulus package which is the temporary reduction of transfer and mortgage fee was announced in order to boost the residential market after the market shrinking affected by the coup in May 2014

Residential market in Bangkok and vicinities have been expanding but with decreasing growth rate due to tightened lending criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Prachachat newspaper

Market value of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H1 (THB million)

Share( as of 2016H1)

CAGR 59

Condominium(4533)

CAGR 60

Housing(5467)

CAGR 57576524 699275 754221 842763 867646 813632 900096 901127

468422 545916

601852 566575 608603 596753 694000 747299

1916

890

393 475

-446

1303

341

-400000

0

400000

800000

1200000

1600000

2000000

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1

Housing Condominium Growth

THB millions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 188

Residential Market

A sign of low growth in new supply is showed in both markets since developers aim to postpone new projectslaunching until the inventory will be absorbed Oversupply could be an issue for this market especially condominium in the peripheral Bangkok since there is

remaining built-but-unsold inventory as well as supply of land for development is still high

The demand of condominium markets is supported by rising number of smaller size of family changing lifestyle and convenience in transportation and living

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The number of total supply and the take-up rate of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H2 (units)

91147 107962 114006 116133 123697 120747 125991 125099 126161

6728266874 72187 81422 78502 76963 78535 77848 77668

101312127328 142563 141741 148674 146923 160658 171796 179930

40740

4290449352 54054 57324 57364

5985659642 58957

57536175 6123 5879 6118 6107 6160 6164 6190

71327480 7428 7239 7217 7192 7286 7423 7532

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H20

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Housing units sold Housing unsold units Condominium units sold Condominium unsold units Housing take-up Condominiums take-up

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 189

Residential Market

Land price is the factor which has the most influence on the price of condominium and houses particularly condominium projects in the downtown area In 2016 overall land price in Bangkok increased approximately 4 Areas along the mass transit train lines saw an increase in price about 65-89 While midtown and

suburban showed the land price appreciation around 26-43 land prices in downtown area rose 64

Prices index of all types of properties have risen while landrsquos and condominiumrsquos price index ranked the top

Land price index and house price index by type of house for Bangkok and vicinities in 2008-2017

Note 1 Single detached house including land town house including land and condominium price indices have been constructed by using hedonic regression method (Rolling window and time dummy) (3-month moving average)

2 Land price index has been constructed by using Stratification method with monthly weight (3-month moving average)

Source Bank of Thailand Thansettakij newspaper

Reference point = 100 (Jan 2009)

89 100 102106 108 114

120 128 129 129

89

100 104106 111

124134 138 137

99118 119

131 130140

156 160171

90108

114123 124

138148

170172

40

70

100

130

160

190

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Detached house (including land) Townhouse (including land) Condominium Land

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 190

Residential Market

Criteria for good location could be the connected transportation network and the expansion of train lines in suburban areas

The majority of housing supply is condensed in suburban areas in Bangkok However they have been diffused to vicinities due to price and availability of land

Source National Real Estate Information Center Post Today newspaper

The dispersion of housing supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of housing supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

PathumThani

Bangkok

Nakorn Pathom

SamutPrakan

Samut Sakhon

LegendHousingHousing started being sold since July 2016

Nonthaburi

N = 203255

336

198

198

160

6840

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan Samut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 191

Residential Market

Supply of available land for development is still high in midtown and suburban area in Bangkok where will be the areas of the expansion of mass transit lines and facility development

In Bangkok 70 of supply is in midtown and suburban area but projects with the highest value are in the downtown area

PathumThani

Nonthaburi

Nakorn Pathom

Samut SakhonSamut Prakan

Bangkok

LegendCondominiumsCondominiums started being sold since July 2016

The dispersion of condominiums supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of condominiums supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

Source National Real Estate Information Center

N = 238887

683

153

61

8206 15

Bangkok NonthaburiPathum Thani Samut PrakanSamut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 192

Residential Market

Bangkok has the highest sold rate in housing and condominium market compared to other vicinities because of convenience of transportation and facilities

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for housing in 2016H2 The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for condominium in 2016H2

493

544

548

584

596

719

507

456

452

416

404

281

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nakorn Pathom

Samut Sakhon

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

519

567

626

680

718

797

481

433

374

320

282

203

0 20 40 60 80 100

Samut Sakhon

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Nakorn Pathom

Nonthaburi

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 193

Residential Market

Townhouse and THB 1-3 million house were the best selling products in term of units However over THB 5 million house showed increasing take-up rate

Townhouse and detached house showed a decreasing trend on demand but they still occupied around 85 of total sold units Prime townhouse in downtown or midtown became more demand since its price per square meter is lower than condominium in midtown

The number of house transfer was much less than sales particularly in houses which are less than THB 2 million because of tightened lending restrictions by banks The mortgage rejection rates were as high as 50 since borrowers especially low-to-middle-income ones have

been faced with the situation of higher level of personal debt than the required criteria by banks

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkok Post newspaper

The take-up rate of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by types in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

4725 4597 4577

3888 3827 3653

955 1123 1267

402 421 458

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Townhouse Detached house Duplexed

Shophouse Others

117 091 104

4040 3925 3921

3347 3470 3477

2495 2514 2498

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 194

Residential Market

The highest demand was shown in 1 bedroom condominium and condominium with pricing THB 1-3 million while take-up rate of over THB 5 million units is rising

For midtown and suburban areas there is an increase in supply due to land availability with reasonable price and mass transportation expansion

For downtown area there is a limited supply with the upward trend of price due to limited supply of land for development

The number of transfer units may not as high as the number of sold units because of inability to secure loan Developers had shifted their focus to the upper-end level market since this market had high take-up rate and was

less affected by strict mortgage loan criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Sold units of condominium by types in 2015H2-2016H2 Sold units of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2 The take-up rate of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

1641 1675 1924

7058 7007 6826

1197 1218 1163104 100 087

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Studio 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms ge 3 bedrooms

954 851 893

5981 5942 6094

1655 1654 1530

1411 1553 1483

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 195

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

The areas for prime condominiums are well-developed as a center of business education convenient public transport and shopping malls

Prime Sukhumvit area has 4 prime projects with 597 new units launched in 2016 which share the largest portion in supply

Central Lumpini area showed the highest growth in average selling price at 99 following by Prime Sukhumvit with 81 increase Riverside-Rama III and Sathorn-Silom area which the price rose 31 and 28 respectively

Prime Sukhumvit remains the main location of prime condominiums

2016 prime projects Location Average asking

price (THBSqm) Units

98 Wireless Central Lumpini (Wireless) 550000 77

28 Chidlom Central Lumpini (Chidlom) 350000 436

Khun by Yoo Prime Sukhumvit (Thonglor 12) 300000 148

Vittorio Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 39) 280000 88

KRAAM Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 26) 275000 126

Laviq Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 57) 240000 235

New supply of prime condominium projects in Bangkok in 2016

Prime condominium is refer to condominium with pricing more than 200000 THBSqm

Location map of areas for prime condominiums in Bangkok

Central Lumpini area Prime Sukhumvit area

Riverside-Rama III area

Sathorn-Silom area

Source Property Insight news Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 196

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

Developer had shifted their focus to prime condominium due to limited supply and had demand from both domestic and foreign

Source Property Today news Bangkokbiz News newspaper Nation newspaper

Supplybull Luxury condominium segment accounted for less than 5 of the total Bangkok condominium supply bull In 2016 the market showed strong growth in supply by 246 increasing especially within the Prime Sukhumvit area bull Developers focused more on prime condominiums since there was purchasing power and land price in downtown area

was too high to develop middle level projects

Demand

bull There was demand with 645 take-up rate with decreasing growth rate bull Buyers in this segment did not rely on home loans and had purchasing power bull There were both domestic and foreign demand Thai buyers accounted for about 85 The rest was the foreign buyers

mostly people from Hong Kong Singapore and Taiwan who have business in Thailandbull Around 48 bought a unit for self-occupancy 36 bought to generate long-term rental income and 16 were the

short-term speculatorsbull Buyers are likely to be more selective

Price bull Price has been increased 47 in average from 2015 The highest record of asking price is THB 720000 sqm by 98 Wireless It is expected that price levels will remain high and may rise due to the land price appreciation

Challenge bull Limited of supply of land for development and high land-acquisition costbull Anticipate customerrsquos needs and deliver superior customer value

Key success factors

bull Accessibility factors convenient transportation both by car and public transportbull Living factors close to shopping malls recreation education health care and business areabull Mood amp livable factors location attributes unique ambience architecture and premium amenities are also represent

the excusive lifestyle and preferences of the target group Brand affiliation was applied as value creation for projectsbull Cost factors competitive price with high quality

Opportunity bull Condominium ownership law for foreigners 49 of total units can be occupied by foreign person

Prime condominium

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 197

Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies

There is no difference between Thai and joint venture projects in terms of price and building except one project differentiating by applying Japanese unique theme

List of Japanese companies conducting joint venture with Thai companies

Price range (THBSqm)

lt 70000 70000 -200000

gt 200000

Floo

r lev

els

gt 30

flo

ors

10 -

29flo

ors

lt 10

flo

ors

Include only new launched condominium projects in 2016-2017

Japan-Thailand joint venture projects positioning

Japanese companies Thai companies of joint venture projects

Mitsui Fudosan (Asia) Pte Ltd

Ananda Development PLC 12

Mitsubishi Estate Co Ltd AP (Thailand) PLC 8

Nomura Real Estate Development Co Ltd Origin Property PLC 3

Hankyu Realty Co Ltd Sena Development PLC 2

Shinwa Real Estate Co Ltd Woraluk Property PLC 1

Tokyu Corporation Sansiri PLC 1

Color denotes the location

1500 units 500 units

Size of circle denotes the number of units

Source NRI analysis

Suburban area with mass rapid transit accessMidtown area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 198

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 199

Hotel market trend

Number of international tourists has been increasing every year except 2014 which had politic issue and coup drsquoetat

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Malaysia Japan Korea Russia Othercoup detat

CAGR 95

Number of international tourists visiting Thailand

In 2015 Chinese tourist is around 266 which increased around 4 times in 10 years following by Malaysian 115 and Japanese 46

Thousand persons

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 200

Hotel market trend

From 2012 trend of total length of stay has been decreasing due to increasing of tourists from East Asia

95 90 91 96 100 99 98 95

59 57 59 64 68 68 67 70

158142 145

156165 165 164 169

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total EastAsia Europe

Average length of stay of international tourists

In average tourists from East Asia stay around 7 days while European tourists stay around 17 days

Days

Average length of stay of East Asia tourists in 2015

Country of resident Average length of stay (days)

China 81

Japan 80

Korea 77

Taiwan 76

Hong Kong 65

ASEAN 56

Others 72

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 201

Hotel market trend

Japanese tourist spend more on accommodation but Chinese tourist spend money more on others such as souvenir

21013

5109

9985

15273

27229

5630

10924

15884

17933

5013

10621

18330

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Others

Transportation

FoodBeverage

Accomodation

Japan China Total

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports National Statistical Office

Average expenditure per day of Total Chinese and Japanese tourists by purpose in 2015 Average expenditure of international tourists per person per day in 2008-2015

THB

THB

4520543525 44246 44708

48262

50972

54975

59666

4521143970 44171 44724

4725049207

48876

51897

4142340112 40787

41871

43928

4616548089

51379

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Japan Total

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 202

Hotel market trend

Number of hotel room is increasing and occupancy rate also increasing with CAGR (2009-2015) around 99 In Bangkok the new supply mainly in Sukhumvit Rd

Source National Statistical Office

The number of hotel rooms and occupancy rate nationwide in 2009-2015

366455

531 528 540 551

651

368395

438487

563 581

651

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Room Occupancy Rate

Thousand units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 203

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 204

1719 17192033

2567

3271314

533

705

315

1630 1630 1813 2015

2572

183202

557

208

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Existing supply New supply Existing demand New demand

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand Sqm

94838918

7852 7862 7750

Occupancy rate

Logistics Property Market

Market value has increased to be about THB 68 billion in 2015 with CAGR (2011-2015) 202 in supply and 143 in demand

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Warehouse supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 205

Logistics Property Market

The movement at ports is rising indicating an increase of demand for logistics property service

Source Ministry of Commerce Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Number of containers passing through Bangkok and Laem Chabang port in 2012-2016

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Bangkok Port - Inbound Laem Chabang Port - Inbound

Bangkok Port - Outbound Laem Chabang Port - Outbound

Thousand TEU

Remark TEU ndash Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit Container

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CAGR 45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 206

Logistics Property Market

The positive factor for the future demand of warehouse service is growing logistic industry supported by E-commerce market and governmentrsquos projects

Source Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Segment( as of 2021f)

Government(1833)

CAGR 184Retail

(2333)CAGR 187

Businesses(6001)

CAGR 201

THB trillions

12 14 16 19 2227

3605

0506

0709

1

14

0405

0506

07

09

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

E-commerce market value in 2015-2021f List of infrastructure development projects in 2015-2022

Infrastructure projects Year

Airport Development of U Tapao airport to be aviation hub

2017-2021

Port Development of 6 ports in the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea

2015-2022

Railway Railway Standard Gauge Thailand-ASEAN-China

2015-2022

Dual-track railway (Laem Chabang port Map Ta Phut port)

2017-2021

High-speed train connecting 3 airports (Suvannabhumi Don Muaeng U Tapao)

2017-2021

Road 12 Motorway connecting between regions 2015-2022

Motorway (Bangkok-ChonburiPattaya-Map Ta Phut)

2017-2021

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 207

Logistics Property Market

Among 3 keys logistics areas Bangkok-Samutprakan has the highest supply since it is the area of airports and industrial estates and it also locates near Bangkok

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Supply share by key logistics locations

Pathumthani-Ayutthaya

Bangkok-Samutprakan

Eastern Seaboard

453

398

144

04

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard

Pathumthani-Ayuttaya Others

Map of Thailand key logistics locations

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 208

Logistics Property Market

Price competition occurred in Eastern Seaboard area since there was a rise in supply resulting from forecasted demand from Eastern Economic Corridor project

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Monthly warehouse rental rates by key logistics locations in 2011-2015

156157

161 161 161

152 152153

150 149147 148

150151 151

155 155

158157 157

140

145

150

155

160

165

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard Pathumthani-Ayutthaya Market rate

THBSqm

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 209

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 210

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 211

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population Growth

India is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption

Source Population Reference Bureau 2017 Datasheet USA

Indiarsquos Position in Population Growth Indiarsquos Population Structure by Age

China18

India18

USA4

Indonesia4

Brazil3

Rest53

2017 (August)

India17

China14

Nigeria4

USA4Indonesia

4

Rest57

2050F

World Population (mid-2017) 7536 mn World Population (2050F) 9683 mn

-100-050

mdash050100150200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

lation

grow

th ra

te (

)

Time (years)

India China Russia Brazil Korea Japan USA UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Percentage of population

Age (

in ye

ars)

YearMedian age (years) Dependability ratio ()Working age population ()

Most favorable period for development

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 212

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid Urbanization

India is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing

Urbanization Trends Major Urban Centers

29 33 38 43 4861

74 81

7681

8588

9092

88 81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Percentage of total population

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(00rsquo

s m

illio

n)

TimeUrban Rural Urban population as of total

Past Trend Projected Future Trend

Source 1 World Urbanization Prospects The 2014 Revision UN Population Division

2

1

6

3

7

5

4

7 Major Urban Centres (Tier 1 cities)

Non-Major Urban Centres (Tier 2 cities)

Source NRI analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 213

904 908 911 914 91996

9289

8681

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Constructionothers

Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of Economy

Although the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years

Contribution of Construction Sector to Countryrsquos GVA (Gross Value Add) at factor cost (at current prices)

As demographic pressure grows need to sustain economic growth will drive investments in the construction sector

Base year 2011-12Values INR trillion

81192

10361148

1246

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 214

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure

GDP per capita at current prices

Source IMF World Economic Outlook April 2017

The improving economic condition of the society will increase the demand for better quality infrastructure especially housing

Average Household Savings per annum

Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E2015E2016E 2019

US$

Time (years)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015IN

R (In

Tho

usan

ds)

Urban Rural Overall

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 215

Note Middle class defined as those living in households with daily per capita income between US$10-100 at 2005 US$ PPP terms

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world

Structure of Population in March 2015 by Income Top 10 Countries in Middle Class Consumption

HHI Household Income per annumHHI brackets Rich (above Rs 073mn) High middle income (Rs 073-020mn) Middle income (Rs 02-01mn) Lower Income and Poor (below Rs 01mn)Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid Data Retrieved 09th Sep 2016 Source Brookings Institution OECD Working Paper no-285 2010

RANK 2009 2020 2030

1 US 44 CHINA 45 INDIA 128

2 JAPAN 18 US 43 CHINA 100

3 GERMANY 12 INDIA 37 US 40

4 FRANCE 09 JAPAN 22 INDONESIA 25

5 UK 09 GERMANY 14 JAPAN 23

6 RUSSIA 09 RUSSIA 12 RUSSIA 14

7 CHINA 07 FRANCE 11 GERMANY 13

8 ITALY 07 INDONESIA 10 MEXICO 12

9 MEXICO 07 MEXICO 10 BRAZIL 12

10 BRAZIL 06 UK 10 FRANCE 11

WORLD 21 WORLD 35 WORLD 55

1304

58

29

87

RICHAverage HHI Rs114mn+14 over 2015

HIGH MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI Rs 033mnNo Change

MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI 015 mn+7 over 2015

LOWER INCOME ampPOORAverage HHI 075mn+7 over 2015

Indiarsquos middle class population would greatly drive demand in the construction sector

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 216

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 217

Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and Growth

The construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure

Sector contribution to Gross Value Added 2015-16 Real-estate market size and growth-rate

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017) Source IBEF India Julrsquo17

Total GVA value at current prices (Base year 2011-12) INR 1246 trillion

Note Real-estate market includes ownership of residential commercial and industrial dwellings and related business services

Agriculture forestry and

fishing17

Mining and quarrying

2

Manufacturing17

Electricity gas water supply amp

other utility services

3

Construction8

Trade repair hotels and restaurants

11

Transport storage

communication amp services hellip

Financial services

6

Real estate ownership of

dwelling amp professional

services15

Public administration and defence

6

Other services8

50 53 56 67 121 94 126 180

853

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2020E 2028E

US$

(bill

ion)

Time (years)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 218

Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players Performance

The real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes

Source Capital IQ amp NRI Analysis

List of Prominent Real Estate Developers (Listed Players only)

Developer Name Revenue USD mn (FY17)

FocusedMarket

Asset ClassResidential Retail Office Hospitality Industrial

DLF Ltd 1269 North India

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd

737 Bengaluru

Godrej Properties Ltd 244 West India

Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd

358 Metro Cities

Unitech Ltd 267 North India

Sobha Ltd 344 South India

The Phoneix Mills Ltd 282 West amp South

Omaxe Limited 251 North India

Brigade Enterprises Ltd 312 South India

Oberoi Realty Ltd 172 West India

HDIL 112 Mumbai

Mahindra Lifespace Developers

118 West amp South

Ashiana Housing Ltd 56 North India

Nesco Ltd 55 Mumbai

Nirlon Ltd 37 Mumbai

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 219

Financing Developments ndash Project Financing Options

Private lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed

Financing options by developers preference Recently Introduced Financing Options

PE funds

NBFC Lending

Private Lending

Bank Lending

FCCB

QIP

AIF

IPO

bull NBFC Non-banking Financial Companybull PE Private Equitybull IPO Initial Public Offeringbull ECB External Commercial Borrowing

bull QIP Qualified Institutional Placementbull FCCB Foreign currency bondsbull REMF Real Estate Mutual Fundbull AIF Alternative Investment Fundbull REIT Real Estate Investment Trustbull InvIT Infrastructure Investment Trust

Preference (high to low)

REMF

REIT

ECB

InvIT

Option Brief Description Merit

AIF bull Diversified portfolio of funds that invest in real estate infra and other priority sector projects

bull Long-term money can be invested in unlisted companies

bull Easy access of money from foreign investors

REIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of real estate assets on behalf of investors

bull Will create exit opportunities for developers and financial investors

bull Infuse transparency and liquidity in the market

InvIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of income generating infrastructure projects

bull Will create liquidity for private infrastructure players

bull Will lower debt exposure and unlocktied up capital of developers

Source NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 220

Financing Developments Trends in REITs

REITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

Reg

ulat

ory

Inve

stor

s

Regulation Introducedbull lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts

Regulations 2014rsquo introduced

Taxation Relaxedbull Dividend distribution tax on REITs

abolished

Operating Conditions Relaxedbull Limit on maximum number of sponsors

raised to fivebull Limit on investment in under-construction

projects raised to 20bull Foreign fund managers allowed to relocate

to India as fund manager

Investments by Banks Allowedbull Indian Central Bank (RBI) allowed

Indian banks to invest in REITs within their umbrella limit of 20 of their Net-Owned Funds

bull This umbrella limit of 20 includes bankrsquos investments in equity-linked mutual funds venture capital funds and stocks

Investments by Mutual Fundsbull Mutual funds allowed to invest up to

5 of their NAV in a single REIT with maximum REIT exposure restricted at 10 of NAV

bull GIC CPPIB Temasek ADIA in talks with IndoSpace for launching ~USD2 bn logistics REIT

bull Blackstone to launch ~USD06 bn office REIT with Embassy Group

bull DLF plans to launch office REIT by mid-2018

bull Blackstone to launch second office REIT with Panchshil Realty

bull Blackstone may consider listing its retail assets under REIT in future

bull Post approval by RBI mutual fund houses are altering their schemes to allow investments in to REITs and InvITs- DSP Blackrock MF altered two

schemes- Birla Sun Life MF altered 12

schemes- ICICI Prudential MF altered three

schemes

bull RMZ Corp (backed by Qatar Investment Authority) is looking to launch REIT by end-2017

bull K Raheja Corp is consolidating its office assets and may be considering launching an office REIT

bull Even though REIT Regulations were introduced in 2014 no real estate developer or investor had shown interest in the initial two years

bull Regulatory points such as dividend distribution tax and certain operating conditions made India REIT listings unattractive for investors

Investments by Insurance Cosbull Insurance companies allowed to

invest up to 3 of their funds in REITs with maximum holding in a single REIT restricted to 5

Source Reserve Bank of India Press Articles NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 221

Financing Developments Trends in Domestic Investments

Domestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Based on data till June 2017

563

23852078

1011

PE investments indicate deals by India-dedicated funds

6753

67

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 15x of 1Q16

2014 2015 2016 2017

Numb

er an

d Valu

e of D

eals

Key D

eals

Ann

ounc

emen

ts

bull Tata Capital ndash Shriram Properties USD80 mn

bull Peninsula Brookfield (Domestic fund) ndash Ansal API USD50 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Nirmal Lifestyle USD50mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndash Supertech USD45 mn

bull Fund raising- Kotak Realty USD400 mn- HDFC USD 250 mn

bull Indostar Capital ndash Total Environment Building Systems USD137 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Omkar Realtors and Developers USD200 mn

bull Piramal Enterprises ndashOzone Group USD96 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Lodha Group USD86 mn

bull Fund raising- HDFC Property USD550 mn- Arthveda USD250 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Lodha Group USD347 mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndashM3M India USD187 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Adarsh Developers USD110 mn

bull Altico Capital ndash Vatika Group USD103 mn

bull Fund raising- Rising StraitsUSD1000 mn- HDFC Venture USD400 mn- ASK Group USD299 mn

bull HDFC Venture Edelweiss Capital Altico Capital ndash Adarsh Developers USD144 mn for land acquisition and starting construction on five residential projects

bull Piramal Fund ndash ASF Group USD85 mn for IT SEZbull Piramal Fund ndash Wadhwa Group USD65 mn for office assetsbull Altico Capital ndash Sheth Group USD56 mn for residential project developmentbull Edelweiss Capital ndash Parinee Realty USD51 mn for under-construction luxury

residential projectbull Fund raising

- SMC Capital and REPL (EPC Developer) USD75 mn ndash SMC IM Capital- Arthveda USD250 mn ndash Affordable Low and Middle Income Fund- Indiabulls Housing Finance USD224 mn ndashDual Advantage Commercial Assets Fund- Reliance Capital USD150 mn ndash Reliance Rental Yield Fund

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 222

Financing Developments Trends in Foreign Investments

Foreign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics

2014 2015 2016 2017

Num

ber a

nd V

alue o

f Dea

lsKe

y Dea

ls A

nnou

ncem

ents

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashUnitech USD349 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash Nirlon USD225 mn

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Infinity Techno Park USD108 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndashParanjape Schemes Construction USD100 mn

bull Fund raising

- CPPIB (Canada)USD500 mn

- Hines (US) USD250 mn

bull Blackstone (US) ndash Alpha G Corp USD302 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF (Residential) USD300 mn

bull Warburg Pincus (US) ndashPiramal Realty USD284 mn

bull Goldman Sachs (US) ndash Nitesh Estates USD300 mn

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashHiranandani USD1000 mn

bull APG Asset Management (Netherlands) ndash Godrej Properties USD275 mn

bull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Phoenix Mills USD250 mn

bull Xander APG Asset Management ndash Virtuous Retail South Asia USD109 mn

bull Fund raising

- Xander USD400 mn

- Macquarie USD500 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF USD1800 mn for 40 stake in rental business across office and retail assets Talks began with 25 prospective buyer and narrowed down to Blackstone and GIC

bull Blackstone (US) ndash K Raheja Corp USD250 mn for 20 mn square feet office spacebull CDPQ (Canada) ndash Piramal Enterprises USD250 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Arshiya USD83 mn for six warehousesbull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Indospace Formed a USD1200 mn JV to acquire and develop

logistics facilities in India JV shall acquire 13 industrial and logistics projects totalling 14 mn square feet from current funds

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Firstspace Realty Formed a JV to invest USD500-600 mn to develop 15 mn square feet logistics and industrial facilities

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Shriram Group US$350 mn for SEZ looking for offices in Tier 1 cities

bull KKR (US) ndash Signature Global USD32 mn to develop affordable housing

Based on data till June 2017

965

30813164

1396

3422 26

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 11x of 1Q16

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 223

Financing Developments Debt position of leading developers

Debt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default

Source SampP Capital IQ NRI Analysis

799

284

333

408

472

493

518

614

1235

3548

Developer Debt Position

Developer Name Total Debt Dec16 (USD mn)

Increase FY16 to Dec16

Increase FY15 to FY16

Interest Coverage Ratio

-13

35

-11

24

-12

0

-52

-9

-2

-19

4

-12

38

-12

8

0

1

-13

3

21

108

091

267

251

149

017

084

163

146

292

Note Total 10 players mentioned above account for 78 of the total debt of listed real estate players in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 224

Financing Developments Debt ndash Trends in NPAs of Banking System

Due to project loan default by developers non-performing assets of banks are increasing Government has increased pace to resolve NPA issue Global PE investors seem keen to capitalize on this opportunistic

2012 - 2014 2015 2016 2017

Key

Eve

nts

NPA

Rat

io

bull Aug-Nov 2015 RBI conducted Asset Quality Review -AQR of bank books to ensure NPAs are correctly recognized

bull Large portion of stressed loans accumulated due to default by large Indian companies

bull Banks delayed the NPA bad loan recognition to show good performance

GNPA Ratio Forecast

Forecast as per RBIrsquos lsquoFinancial Stability Reportrsquo December 2016

NPAs in Indian banking system (across sectors) ndash Ratio of Gross Non-Performing Assets to Total Advances

Source Reserve Bank of India ndash lsquoFinancial Stability Report December 2016rsquo Bloomberg Reports Mar 2017 Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both NPA ratio

bull Global PE heavyweights formed JVs to focus on investments in Indian stressed assets

- Brookfield Apollo Global Bain Capital CPPIB CDPQ and JC Flower amp Co

bull Jan-17 RBI announced that is expects NPAs to increase furtherbull May-17 Banking Regulation Act 1949 amended to give RBI more powers

to resolve NPA issue RBI now has the power to give directions to banks in India to initiate insolvency process against debt defaulters

bull Jun-17 RBI identified 12 key defaulters (together account for 25 of the total NPAs) for resolution by initiating insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016)- The lenders to these defaulters shall finalise the resolution plan within six

months failing which insolvency proceedings shall be initiated

30 35 40 4676 91 98 101

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNPA to Total Advances

Sep-16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 225Source Bloomberg Reports Press Articles NRI Analysis

Global PE Firms in Indian Stressed Asset Market

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Global PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets

Glob

al PE

Firm

s Indian Partner

Jul 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Aug 16

Mar 16

Mar 16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 226Source VC Circle Press Articles

Recent Announcements (Illustrative List)

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Major global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets

Investor Target Seller Partner

Estimated DealValue (US$ mn)

Asset-Type

Office Residential Retail Others

Ascendas Arshiya Ltd 83 Six warehouses near Mumbai (Western India)

CPPIB IndoSpace 1200 JV to acquire 13 logistics assets (14 mn sqft)

GIC DLF - DCCDL 1800 GIC Singapore announced intention to purchase 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business DCCDL (DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd) (Across India)

KKR Signature Global

31 Affordable housing projects in Gurgaon(Northern India)

Xander Group AdarshDevelopers

20 For projects in Bengaluru area (Southern India)

- - Looking for assets in tier1 cities (Across India)

ShriramGroup

190 SEZ in Chennai (Southern India)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 227

DLF Promoters

DLF Ltd

DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd (DCCDL)

25

Assets and Projects

Assets and Projects

Public

CCPS sale to GIC

Office Retail Land Under-construction Other Assets

75

Proposed Transaction ndash Sale of CCPS held by Promoters of DLF

40 60

Case Study DLF - GIC

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Recently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion

Snapshot

Deal Summarybull Sale of promoter familyrsquos 40 stake in

DCCDLbull Deal value estimated to be US$18 billionbull Funds raised to be used for debt reductionbull Expected to be closed by September 2017

DCCDL Businessbull Assets Offices Retail Landbull Operational portfolio 268 mn sqftbull Development pipeline 67 mn sqft

Source Press Articles NRI Analysis

Cumulative Convertible Preference Shares

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 228

Regulatory Developments

Recent policy initiatives such as RE regulation act GST tax reform and strong steps for resolving bank NPAs are likely to make Indian market attractive for investors

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

RE

Reg

ulat

ion

Anti-

Cor

rupt

ion

Ban

king

Sy

stem

Econ

omic

bull SEBI introduced lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts Regulations 2014rsquo expected to bring greater accountability and reduce frauds and project delays

bull Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Bill 2015 introduced to prohibit illegal ownership transactions

bull Passed RERA -Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

bull RERA becomes effective however some states are yet to comply

bull Some states have diluted the provisions of the central act raising concerns

bull Interest Subsidy Scheme for housing loans for low and middle income groups to promote affordable housing in India

bull Real estate sector impacted by demonetization due to high volume of cash transactions

bull Goods and Service Tax (GST) to become effective from 1 July potentially simplifying the Indian indirect tax structure

bull Benami Act 2016 becomes effective

Source CBRE ndash lsquoIndia Marketflashrsquo Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Indian central bank (RBI) conducted asset quality review (AQR) of banks to ensure NPAs are recognized and provisioned

bull Government relaxed rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in real estate

bull Removed restrictive conditions of minimum area and capitalization amount

bull Demonetization high value currency notes to remove lsquoblack moneyrsquo

bull Government amended Indian banking regulation law to give RBI more powers to resolve NPA issue

bull RBI identified 12 large debt defaulters and instructed banks to push these accounts for insolvency

bull Income Tax department identified 400 transactions for conducting investigations under Benami Act

bull Real estate assets estimated to be worth ~USD80 mn was linked in the transactions

bull Multiple states notified the draft rules and passed the regulations to meet the deadline for compliance ndash 1 May 2017

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both GNPA and NNPA ratios

bull Draft law for indirect tax reform - Goods and Service Tax (GST) released in Public domain in June 2016

bull Constitutional amendment bill passed to facilitate implementation of GST

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 229

Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy Conditions

FDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years howeverrecent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector

Source Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Government of India June 2017

Summary of FDI policy in real estate sector FDI in Real-estate sector (USD bn)

Topic Brief Description

Investment Limit

bull 100 equity allowedbull Automatic authorization route no prior

government approval required

Key Restrictions

bull Construction of farm houses trading in transferable development rights (TDRs) and dealing in land or immovable property

bull Lock-in period of 3 years

Relaxations bull No lock-in period in case of hotels amp resorts hospitals SEZs educational institutions and old age homes

bull Transfer from one non-resident to another non-resident will not be subject to 3 year lock-in period

bull FDI permitted in completed projects for operations and management of townships malls shopping complexes and business centers

Key Implications

bull Will help revive projects that could not receive capital earlier

bull Foreign investors will be able to speed up its investment process

bull Encouraging environment for foreign developers

010

133

011

123

314

166

294

280

218

047

004

072

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2015-16

2014-15

2013-14Multiple corruption cases and political instability led to market downturn

2016-17

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 230

Regulatory Developments ndash Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

Real Estate bill 2016 is a major regulation recently passed by Indian Govt This bill is expected to bring greater accountability and reduce fraud and project delays in this sector

bull Rising population and income has led to an excessive demand for housing in India for the last two decades

bull As a result several firms jumped into the housing development business to capture a share of this booming market

bull In a race to capture demand developers started launching several projects simultaneously by investing consumersrsquo money into buying new land sites

bull Gradually developersrsquo intensity started affecting their cash flows and not just numbers but project sizes became larger

bull This resulted in poor quality construction severe delay in projects completion etc leading to consumersrsquo increasing dissatisfaction legal disputes etc

bull Hence the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Bill 2016 was introduced to re-instate transparency and discipline in the real estate sector and passed in March 2016

Source News Articles

Background Key Provisions of Bill

Boom in residential market

driving new entrants

Race to capture this demand

impacted quality

Lead to consumer dissatisfaction

Scopebull Both commercial and residential assetsbull Developers brokers as well as agentsbull Under-construction projects also covered

Institutional Framework

bull All states to notify guidelines and set up regulatory boards

Fund Utilizationbull 70 of the money collected from the buyers to me maintained i

n an escrow account and to be mandatorily used for the said project

Registrationbull All covered projects need to be registered by the developer withi

n three months of setupbull Online registration facility available

Penaltiesbull In case of violations

ndash Project registrations can be cancelledndash Developerrsquos promoter(s) can be imprisoned

Interest Payments

bull In case of delay in providing possession developer shall pay same interest rate to buyer as the buyer would pay to developer in case of delay in payment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 231

Regulatory Developments ndash Demonetization

Demonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017

Performance of Real-Estate Index

1 Mar 2017

2 Jan

2017

1 Sep 2016

1 Feb 2017

3 Apr

2017

1 Jul 2016

1 Jun

2016

2 May 2016

9314

2 May 2017

256

1 Nov 2016

3 Oct

2016

1 Dec 2016

198

8497

1 Aug 2016

1 Apr

2016

161

7713

Nifty RealtyNifty 50

True impact of demonetization may become clear by the end of 2017 with disclosure of performance by developers

The Nifty Realty (real estate index) has been moving in line with the broader Nifty 50 index

Indices Trading at all time high

Demonetization 8 Nov 2016 caused an immediate but short-term correction

Source wwwinvestingcom NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 232

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 233

Office space demand in 2017 is expected to remain similar to 2016 however developers are making new launches in anticipation of demand growth post 2017

Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndAb

sorp

tion

Vaca

ncy

and

Ren

tal R

ate

106

195186153

190176 205204226183199180

2H20161H2015 1H20161H2014 2H2014 2H2015

AbsorptionNew Supply(in million sq ft)

Over the past 3 years developerrsquos cautious approach and improved economic sentiments have kept demand for office space more than the new supplyhellip

hellip this demand surplus has led to positive movement in vacancy rates and rental rates across key office space markets in India

New Supplybull Estimated to be ~30 more than

in 2016 with Bengaluru and Hyderabad being the biggest contributors

Absorptionbull Estimated to witness modest

~2 increase with Bengaluru and Delhi-NCR being the key markets

Vacancy Ratesbull Expected to improve across key

cities with the exception of Delhi-NCR and Kolkata

Rental Ratesbull Expected to improve across all

key cities with Hyderabad Delhi-NCR and Kolkata outperforming rental growth of 2016

183 174 166 156 150 135

88 92 98103 111 119

177 189 185 167 186 197

73 75 78 81 86 94

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Vacancy Rate Delhi - NCR Rental Mumbai Rental Bengaluru Rental

(Rental rate in USD per square metre per month)

Source Colliers ndash lsquoIndia Office Market Overviewrsquo Jan 2017 Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai and Hyderabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Supertech Plans to invest ~USD115 mn to develop 25 mn square feet of retail and commercial space in Delhi-NCR region

bull Lodha Group Set-up a business vertical to focus on development of commercial assets (office retail and logistics) with a target of USD1 billion AUM by 2021

bull ldquoDemand for office space is expected to remain constant in 2017 hellip The expected take up from ITITeS companies may see reduced proportionhelliprdquo - Anshul Jain Country Head Cushman amp Wakefield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 234

Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal Size

The ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad

9

21

57 60

39

51

173

912

16

21

32 34

84

22

2342 42

26 24 23

5

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

ITITES BFSI Manufacturing Other Services

16000 19000

54000

39000

20000

30000

25300

29000

50000 51000

24500

20000

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

H1 2016 H1 2017

Source India real estate residential and office January - June 2017 Knight Frank

Sector-wise Transactions Split (H1 2017) Deal Size Analysis (Sq ft)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 235

Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costs

New Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list

Prime office space occupancy costs in US$ per sq ft per annum

Source June 2017 Global Prime Office Occupancy Costs CBRE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q12017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 236

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 237

Since 1Q 2017 residential segment has started displaying signs of recovery encouraging developers such as Lodha and Supertech to commit large investments

Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

A 2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndSa

les

Cap

ital V

alue

Source Liases Foras Real Estate Rating amp Research Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

71100

123112149160

107131138123136135

1H20161H2015 2H2015 2H20161H2014 2H2014

SalesNew Launches(in lsquo000 units)

To compensate for the low residential demand developers have reduced new launcheshellip

hellip this has helped reduce the unsold inventory level and supported capital value growth in key markets except Delhi-NCR

1Q 2017 - Sales

bull Most key city markets have saw declining sales on annual and half-yearly basis

bull However on a QoQ all cities saw sales improvement except Bengaluru where sales declined further by ~8 on QoQ basis

1Q 2017 ndash Price

bull Capital values have continue improve by 3-5 in most key markets

bull However cities like Delhi-NCR Kolkata and Pune have witnessed marginal price correction of around 1-3

709 716 731 747 695 693

1185 1252 1282 1284 1298 1324

717 735 746 767 771 791

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Delhi - NCR Price Mumbai Price Bengaluru Price

(Price in USD per square metre)

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata and Ahmedabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Lodha Group Plans to invest ~USD650 mn during 2017-18 to enhance deliveries of residential projects and launch 8-9 new projects

bull Supertech Shall invest ~USD380 mn to complete 15000 housing units in 2017-18 Also it plans to invest ~USD525-600 mn for launching affordable housing projects of 40000 units

bull Shapoorji Pallonji Plans to launch around 12 residential projects during Aprrsquo17 to Decrsquo18 Currently this is the biggest development plan in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 238

Residential Space ndash Supply Trends

Mumbai amp Bengaluru dominate the new residential apartment supply In 1Q17 most of the new launches have been in the economy segment (INR 2000-3000 per sqft) range across India

16 127

22

13 24

6

7

10

23

24

28

12

12

145

8

487

38 11

7

H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017

Perc

enta

ge s

har

e o

f new

lau

nches

Time (Yearly)

Delhi-NCR Mumbai Chennai Bengaluru

Kolkata Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune

Source Knight Frank

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

Price Category Wise Launches (INR Per square ft)

Less than 2000 2000 - 3000 3000 - 40004000 - 5000 5000 - 7500 7500 - 1000010000 - 15000 More than 15000

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

~106900 ~74000 ~67500

New Residential Apartment Supply Trends Composition of New Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 239

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 240

Retail Space ndash Overall Outlook

The retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes

201 204 238

278 321

368 425

518 490

600 672

1300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Time (Years)

Source Indian Brand Equity Foundation July 2017

92 8776

8 1324

2015 2019E 2020E

Unorganized Organized

bull Currently India has over 15 million Mom and Pop stores (unorganized retail)

bull From FY09 - FY13 organised retail in India has witnessed a CAGR of 19-20

Retail Market Size (US$ Billion) Type of Retail Market in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 241

Retail space demand has remained stagnant across major markets as a result of domestic consumption slump caused by demonetization but is expected to recover in this year

Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

New Supplybull 2017 is likely to see the highest mall space

becoming operational second to 2011 bull High levels of activity are expected 2017

onwards after a prolonged slowdown from 2014 that lasted through 2016

Absorptionbull The domestic consumption story was

impacted by demonetization in the last two months of 2016

bull Business is expected to normalize from 2Q17

Vacancy Ratesbull Indiarsquos overall vacancy rate is expected to

rise on account of new future supplybull The good malls have done well

Rental Ratesbull Rental rates across major retail markets

have remained stable for last 1 year on account of sluggish business activity

65 69

138

4157

13

36

-03

77

106

4542 40

107

45 51

16

33 27

56

79

42

00

50

100

150

200

250

-20

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Com

plet

ions

Ab

sorp

tion

(Mill

ion

Sq F

t)

New Completions Net Absorption Vacancy

Supply Net Absorption and Vacancy of Retail Space in India

441 438 438 438 376

398 397 397

194 213 213 213

2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017

Delhi - NCR Mumbai Bengaluru

(Rental rate in INR per square metre per month)

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 242

Retail Space ndash Mall

Vacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018

Construction Status of Future Supply of Retail Malls (2017- 2019)

48

18

52

68

11

47

3

31

22

2017F 2018F 2019FProposed Excavation Upto Plinth

Less than 50 Structure Readuy 50-100 Structure Ready

Ready for fit-outs

bull In terms of supply 2017 appears to be a strong year with over 77million sq ft of net supply expected to come on stream

bull The good malls are witnessing moderate to good pre-commitmentlevels ranging between 51-75 whereas the average malls areseeing poor pre-commitments of 0-50

bull Key retail completions lined up for 2017 include the RMZ Mall inBengaluru Seawoods Grand Central in Mumbai Palladium Mall inChennai ICC Mall in Pune DLF Mall and Wave Hub Mall in NCRDelhi

bull Of the total retail supply expected in 2017 48 is in the ready forfit-outs stage while 52 is in the 50-100 structure ready stage

bull By end 2017 NCR Delhi will have a Grade A retail stock of 274million sq ft while Mumbai is expected to have a stock of 191million sq ft for Grade A retail space

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 243

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 244

Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist Destination

The travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally

Source Ministry of Tourism India

Indiarsquos Position in the World By Industry Competitiveness 40th By Air transport

Infrastructure 32nd By Price competitiveness 10th

Source Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017

527 563 669 748

865 1045

1143 1290

1432 1614

13 14 14

18 19

18 20

23

23

25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f tou

rist a

rriv

als

(mill

ions

)

Time (Years)Domestic Foreign

Domestic and Foreign Tourist Arrivals Top cities in Foreign Tourist Arrivals by Air in July 2017

GKCNew Delhi

41

Mumbai21

Chennai9

Bengluru8

Kochi7

Others15

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 245

Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming Inventory

Although hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2015

Growth of Room Supply - India

249050

1122840

1464850

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2000-01 2014-15 2019-20

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Brand Inventory across Select Asia Pacific Cities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 246

Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory Trends

Delhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities

Hotel Rooms Statistics across major cities in 2016

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Hotel Class Definition in India (as per Industry)

Star Rating 5 Star 5 Star 4-5 Star 3-4 Star 2 Star or less

Room size gt=38 gt=38 35-38 25-35 lt25

Restaurant gt=3 gt=3 1-2 1-2 Only 1

BarLounge gt=2 1-2 Only 1 Only 1 1 or none

Swimming Pool Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Gym Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Spa Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Concierge Service

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Nomandate

Branded Toiletries

Yes Yes No No No

TrademarkedBeds

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

Interior Quality Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Num

ber o

f roo

ms

Existing Supply (Rooms) Proposed Supply (Rooms)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 247

Hospitality Space ndash Supply Trends

Average room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy

Average Room Rate (US$) across Major Cities

106

61

8879

107102

89

112

7478

94

118

63

950

590

830

730

96 96

81

109

72 75

87

113

61

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 248

Hospitality Space ndash Demand Trends

Occupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year

Occupancy Rate across Major Cities

615

539

581589

617 611

480

697

571

545

678

718

613

571

549

662

627

667 667

509

707

581

609

685

743

657

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 249

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 250

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 251

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 real GDP (constant 2010 USD) accounted for 16 USD trillion showing zero percent Y-o-Y growth compared to -3 in 2015

For 2018 and 2019 GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 17 (World Bank)

Russian economy recession is slowing down with real GDP growth of 0 in 2016

GDP(constant 2010 USD) GDP per capita (constant 2010 USD)

Source World Bank

-10-8-6-4-20246810

00020406081012141618

USD

trilli

on

GDP (constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

-10-8-6-4-20246810

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

USD

GDP per capita(constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 252

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 population of Russia accounted for 1443 million people with 107 million living in urban areas Over the part 10 year share of urban population has grown by 06

Almost 74 of the population live in urban areas and this share is slowly growing

-05

-04

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

milli

on p

eopl

e

Population(million people) Y-o-Y growth

Population million people

Source World Bank

730

732

734

736

738

740

742

Urban population share

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 253

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2015 consumer price index recorded 129 amid RUB depreciation However due to RUB exchange rate stabilization inflation slowed down in 2016 to 54

After significant growth in 2015 inflation was stabilized in 2016 to a manageable level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

RU

RU

SD

RURUSD exchange rate

Source World Bank

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Rosstat

CPI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 254

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 value of mortgage loans accounted increased to 14 RUB trillion (800 thousand loans) The government pursues to increase number of mortgage loans up to 1200 loans by 2020

The mortgage loan market enjoys a strong recovery after decline in 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

- 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(asof Nov)

Thou

sand

uni

ts

RU

B Bi

llion

Mortgage loans value(RUB billion)

Numbe of mortagge loans issued (thousand units)

116

118

12

122

124

126

128

13

132

134

136

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Central Bank of Russia

Mortgage rate Mortgage loans issued (volume and value)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 255

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 256

Residential Market

Russian government is looking to improve the living standards of its citizens and upgrade the quality of urban environment by several stimulation programs

The Moscow housing

renovation program

The Mortgage and rental housing

priority project

ldquoThe Moscow housing renovation programrdquo is aimed at resettlement and demolition of a dilapidated low-rise housing stock built in 1957-1968 and at the new construction in the liberated territory it was submitted on September 26 2017 by the mayor of Moscow Duration of 15-20 years Total financing of 400 RUB billion 6 ml people to be resettled Over 25 ml m2 of residential property to be resettled and demolished (5177 houses = ~10 of total

residential area of Moscow) Similar programs will be potentially extended to other regions of Russia

The main objective of the Mortgage and rental housing priority project is to improve the living conditions of Russian citizens by Ensuring high rates of housing commissioning (goal - commissioning of 88 ml m2 of residential

space in 2018 100 ml m2 of residential space in 2020) Demand stimulation (issuance of 1 ml mortgage loans in 2018 12 ml mortgage loans in 2020)

Basic approaches of achieving the goals of the housing conditions improvement are ensuring high rates of construction of high-quality comfortable and affordable housing by including

inefficiently used federal regional and municipal lands as well as financing the construction of infrastructure as part of integrated development projects

increasing the availability of mortgage loans and reduce financial risks by forming a liquid market for mortgage securities introducing electronic bonds and the worlds best practices for disclosing information

implementation of pilot projects of specialized rental housing by using collective investment mechanisms and developing proposals for the further development of the rental market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 257

Residential Market

Demand in primary housing market significantly increased while growth in secondary market remain modest

In 2016 the number of contracts in primary housing market (new houses) increased by 80 in comparison with 2015

Secondary housing market grew only by 86

Source Konti

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

thou

sand

con

tract

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

thou

sand

con

tract

s

Number of contracts in Moscow secondary housing market(~existing homes)

Number of contracts in Moscow primary housing market(~new homes)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 258

Residential Market

Supply of new houses in Moscow declined in 2016 due to low demand in the previous year

1971 2110

3050 31463342

3920

3385

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

sq

m

46543

33091

22825 23587

4255146352 46080

56171

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

units

Source Rosstat

Commissioned living space in Moscow Number of commissioned flats in Moscow

In 2016 constructed living space accounted for 3385 thousand sq m which is 14 lower as compared with 2015 Decline can be explained by the fact that in 2015 supply outweighed demand by far

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 259

Residential Market

In 4Q 2016 average price of new residential housing accounted for 155 thousand RUBsq m which is approx 15 lower as compared with the same period of the previous year

Average price in secondary housing market declined by 4 (1809 thousand RUB sq m)

Average price growth in both primary and secondary Moscow residential market remain negative

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

thou

sand

RU

Bsq

m

Source Rosstat

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

thou

sand

RU

B sq

m

Average price of primary housing in Moscow Average price of secondary housing in Moscow

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 260

Residential Market

Supply of new housing in 2016 and average price in Moscow very depending on administrative district

District Average price(RUB per sq m) as of Dec 2016

Supply share as of Dec 2016

1 Central Administrative District 250900 12

2 Northern Administrative District 166800 13

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 168100 12

4 Eastern Administrative District 200300 8

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 145400 9

6 Southern Administrative District 179000 11

7 South-Western Administrative District 173400 8

8 Western Administrative District 212900 12

9 North-Western Administrative District 238900 18

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 88100 1

Source Blackwood

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 261

Residential Market

Backup information population of Moscow

District Population people

1 Central Administrative District 768280

2 Northern Administrative District 1158528

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 1413739

4 Eastern Administrative District 1505801

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 1380668

6 Southern Administrative District 1774351

7 South-Western Administrative District 1426227

8 Western Administrative District 1362701

9 North-Western Administrative District 988423

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 237897

1118711282

11504

1177711857

1198012108

1219812330

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Population by district as of 2016Population of Moscow thousand people

Source Rosstat Source City Population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 262

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 263

Office Market

In 2016 construction of offices fell to 313 thousand sq m which is the lowest figure over the past decade Total stock of offices accounted for 17 thousand sq m

Construction of offices has shown negative growth since 2014

Source Colliers

Total stock in Moscow

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total area of office completions in Moscow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 264

Office Market

Demand has showed negative growth in Moscow office market since 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total take-up in Moscow thousand sq m

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Source Colliers

Vacancy rate

The annual transaction volume in Moscow accounted for 850000 sq m (115 decline ) Vacancy rate for A class offices fell to by nearly 7 while B class vacancy rate remained the same

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 265

Office Market

Backup information take-up structure in Moscow

24

16

109

9

5

5

4

332

1

9

Manufacturing

Professional services

Public

Retail

IT amp Telecoms

EnergyIndustrial

Pharmacy and life science

Banking Insurance ampInvestmentConstruction anddevelopmentAutomative

Media

Vehicles Transport ampLogisticsOther

Take-up structure by sector in 2015Take-up structure by type of deal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

rent sale

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 266

Office Market

Average rental rate in USD significantly declined in 2015 due to local currency devaluation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Average rental rate USD sq m per annum in Moscow

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 267

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 268

Retail Market

Backup information total stock in Moscow and Russia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Total stock in Moscow thousand sq m Total stock in Russia thousand sq m

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 269

Retail Market

In 2016 construction of shopping centers in Moscow fell by nearly 32 to 424 thousand sq m The decline in figures for the whole country accounted for 14

Construction of shopping center has been declining since 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Source Colliers

Completion (GLA) in Moscow thousand sq m Completion (GLA) in Russia thousand sq m

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 270

Retail Market

Despite current economic condition in 2015 number of brands entered the Moscow market still far outweighs number of brands that left

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

International brands left Moscow market

International brands enterd Moscow market

Number of international brands entered Moscow market units

Source Colliers

53

22

8

17

Fashion Children goods Catering Other

Structure of brands entering Moscow in 2015

In 2015 36 new international brands entered the Moscow market while 11 announced to leave

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 271

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 272

Hotel Market

Hotel supply has been staying at the nearly the same level since 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

hote

ls u

nits

room

s u

nits

Number of rooms Number of hotels

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

num

ber o

f hot

els

room

sun

its

Number of rooms Number of hotels

Source Rosstat

Supply of hotels in Moscow Supply of hotels in Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 273

Hotel Market

Number of overnight stays in hotels also has not faced significant changes

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source Rosstat

Number of stays in hotels Moscow Number of stays in hotels Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 274

Hotel Market

As of 2016 year nearly 15000 rooms are managed by international hotel operators in the Moscow market The reawakening of Russian and international hotel chains in 2016-2017 is based heavily on the forthcoming FIFA

World

The Moscow hotel market is dominated by optimistic moods - despite tough economic conditions hoteliers noted that demand has grown since 2015

Indicator 2015 2016

Total supply of hotels managed by international operators

52 58

Number of rooms managed by international hotel operators

13 723 14 942

Average price of a sold room (ADR) Rublesday 7 245 7 815

Yield per room (RevPAR) Rublesday 4 890 5 650

Occupancy rate 675 723

Tourist flow million people 171 175

22

18

15

14

7

6

6

48

AccorHotels

InterContinental HotelsGroupCarlson Rezidor HotelGroupMarriott International

Best Western

Starwood Hotels andResorts WorldwideHilton Worldwide

AZIMUT Hotels

Others

Source Colliers

Key indicators of Moscow hotel marketMajor international hotel operators in 2016 of numbers of rooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 275

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 276

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 277

1 Macro Economy

The United States of America can be divided into 4 regions

The 4 regions of the USA include Northeast Midwest South and West

Source) US Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

Northeast South Midwest West

New York Boston Dallas Houston Chicago DetroitLos Angeles

SeattleSan

Francisco

Population ndash Ppl(2016)

8537673 673184 1317929 2303482 2704958 672795 3976322 704352 870887

GDP ndash $M USD(2016)

1657457 422660 511606 478618 651222 252691 1001677 330409 470529

Northeast Midwest

WestSouth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 278

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

Cal

iforn

iaW

ashi

ngto

nA

rizo

naC

olo

rado

Ore

gon

Uta

hN

evad

aN

ew M

exic

oId

aho

Haw

aii

Mont

ana

Ala

ska

Wyo

min

gTex

asFlo

rida

Georg

iaN

ort

h C

arolin

aV

irgi

nia

Ten

ness

eeM

aryl

and

South

Car

olin

aA

laba

ma

Loui

sian

aKen

tuck

yO

klah

om

aM

issi

ssip

piA

rkan

sas

Wes

t V

irgi

nia

Del

awar

eD

istr

ict

of C

olu

mbi

aN

ew Y

ork

Pen

nsyl

vania

New

Jer

sey

Mas

sachu

sett

sC

onn

ect

icut

New

Ham

pshi

reM

aine

Rho

de Isl

and

Ver

mont

Illin

ois

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Mis

sour

iW

isco

nsin

Min

neso

taIo

wa

Kan

sas

Neb

rask

aSouth

Dak

ota

1 Macro Economy

The population of California is 392 million Texas 278 million Florida 206 million New York 197 million and Illinois 128 million

Regarding the state-wise population California is the most populous state followed by Texas Florida New York and Illinois

Source) USCensus Bureau

State-wise population (2016)

NortheastSouthWest Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 279

1 Macro Economy

Among the top 20 cities in terms of population 6 belong to Texas The 5 cities that had their annual growth rate more than 2 after 2010 are as follows

Austin Texas 254 Seattle Washington 241 Denver Colorado 234 Fort Worth Texas 222 Charlotte North Carolina 221

In the metropolitan cities the population of New York and Los Angeles exceeds 30 millionAmong the top 20 cities in terms of population the annual growth rate of 5 cities exceeds 2 after 2010

Population (Top 20 Cities 2016)

Source) US Census Bureau

07 08

00

1518

04

19

1216

12

25

11 13 14

07

22 2224 23

08

00051015202530

-

3000000

6000000

9000000

Population (left) CAGR from 2010 to 2016 (right)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 280

1 Macro Economy

The real GDP was increased by 88 from $156 trillion in Q3 2013 to $170 trillion in Q2 2017 The real estate business grew by 27 in the most recent quarter and became the main driver of economic growth

The US real GDP has been continuously growing for the past 4 years (except Q1 2014)

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

($ billion)

Trends of real GDP Trends of GDP growth rate

Billions of chained (2009) dollars ()

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 281

Regarding the state-wise real GDP California has the highest real GDP of $25 trillion followed by Texas and New York with approximately $15 trillion However the other states have their real GDP below $1 trillion

1 Macro Economy

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

State-wise real GDP (Top 20 states Q1 2017)

($ billion)

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Millions of chained (2009) dollars

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 282

1 Macro Economy

Especially the growth rate of southern states including Texas and New Mexico was relatively high

The real GDP of 43 states and the District of Columbia grew between 2015 and 2016

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP growth by states (2015 -2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 283

1 Macro Economy

The rate of unemployment is suddenly increased after collapsing the Dotcom bubble and the Lehman shock After October 2009 it turns to decrease

In August 2017 the unemployment rate is 44 and the number of unemployed is 71 million

The unemployment rate recorded in June 2017 was 43 which was the lowest in the past 20 years

Source) US Bureau of Labor Statistics

43

63

100

44

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Lehman shock

Dotcom bubble

collapse

Unemployment rate (1997 to 2007)

()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 284

Through blockchain technology all involved parties can have a copy of the original data record allowing near-real time data record access and updates safe from tampering

The US commercial real estate market has a particular interest in the following benefits Listing Management ndash To effectively manage real estate listing data of any property in the world Secure Data Exchange ndash To securely manage data of tenant owners etc Efficient Contracting ndash To speed up exchange of data contract etc

The US market has been slowly exploring blockchain technology for commercial real estate applications

Users Data Record

Blockchain in Real Estate Overview

Blockchain

Listing Management

Secure Data Exchange

Efficient Contracting

Blockchain

Blockchain

Blockchain

1 Macro Economy

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 285

Through smart contracts blockchain technology can revolutionize how commercial real estate market parties contract

1 Macro Economy

Smart Contract Timeline Overview

Smart contracts are applications to securely execute contractual terms between involved parties through blockchain technology

Tenant Landlord Tenant Tenant Landlord

bull Tenant and landlord sign smart contract to initiate lease agreement

bull Agreement includes rental value payment terms and party details

bull Smart contract will start to enforce payment terms thus initiating lease payments from tenant to landlord

bull Upon termination of lease contract contract returns the security deposit payment to the tenant after adjustments for damages

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Landlord

Pre-Lease During Lease Post-Lease

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 286

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 287

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The most recent commercial real estate price is far larger than the previous highest of 2007Although the price continued to increase after the Lehman shock it is at peak in 2016 second half

1269

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Trends of Commercial real estate price (Commercial Property Price Index)

Source) Green Street AdvisorsMainly the prime commercial properties (real estate) were targeted

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 288

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The total amount of transactions was increased in all sectors between 2014 and 2015In 2016 only the number of apartments was increased the other real estates were declined

116

130

89

51

36

153 151

90 78

50

159

143

76

59

36

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Apartments Office Retail Industrial Hotel

2014 2015 2016

($ bil)

Trends in Transaction amount of commercial real estates (including transactions equal to or more than 25 billion)

Source) Colliers International

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 289

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

00

10

20

30

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

米国10年国債利回り(左軸) 米国REIT価格指数(右軸)

2 Real Estate Investment Market

If the future interest rates will rise the REIT price would fall in the short term Then it will rise in the medium and long term

Trends in Cap rate of main sectors

Source) NAREIT Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

REIT price index has been calculated based on FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Total Index

20134-20138Yield on the government bonds +11 pointsREIT -13

20151-20156Yield on the government bonds +07 pointsREIT -11

20167-201611Yield on the government bonds +09 pointsREIT -12

Yield on 10-year government bonds (Left axis)

USArsquos REIT price index (Right axis)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 290

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 291

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Regarding the residential market of the USA houses which were built for sale purpose accounted for 50 custom houses accounted for 15 and rental apartments that have increasingly become common in recent years accounted for 30

Trends of Residential market structure in Japan

1 Existing housing stock data pertains to FY 20132 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor and field supervisor There are three types of construction methods 1) The landlord

takes the responsibility for partial construction and asks a local contractor for the remaining construction 2) The landlord gives the task of entire construction to a local contractor 3) The landlord undertakes the entire construction work(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the landlord When the landlords construct on their own partial work of construction is given to a local contractor)

3 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor The local contractor is hired as the field supervisor and landlord does not construct at all These also include houses used for rental purpose (example temporary house of a clergyman)(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the local contractor)

Unit 10000 houses Japan Unit 10000 houses US

Number of new housing starts

967 (100) Starts by Purpose 1174 (100)

Owner-occupied houses (custom houses)

292 (30)Owner built2 49 (4)

Contractor built3 116 (10)

Sale in lots 251 (26) Built for sale 607 (52)

Detached houses 134 (14)Single-familyUnits

579 (49)

Mansions 117 (12)Building with 2units or more

28 (2)

Houses on lease (including those received as allowance)

424 (44) Built for rent 402 (34)

Existing housing stock 169 (17) Used house sales 549 (468)

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 292

In 2016 rental housing constructions were less than the preceding year

The number of detached housing construction sharply declined after reaching its peak in 2005However after hitting its lowest level in 2011 the situation became improved In parallel rental housing construction has also been growing

Trends of New housing constructions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 unit Built for sale

1 unit Contractor-built

1 unit Owner-built

2+ units For sale

2+ unitsFor rent

(Thousands)

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 293

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Less than 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

1995 2005 2015

For 10 years after 2005 the rate of house-owners who are the 25-44 year-old people had significantly declined With the decrease of houses owned by the young generation the demand for rental houses rapidly increased

Age-wise housing acquisition rate

-5 points

-10points

-10 points

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 294

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

After the Lehman shock the southern and western regions started recovering and restored to their status as in the 1990s However the midwest and north-eastern regions remained the same

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

Trends of new housing constructions (Detached houses)

(Thousands)

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 295

-

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Texa

sFl

orid

aN

orth

Car

olin

aG

eorg

iaSo

uth

Car

olin

aTe

nnes

see

Virg

inia

Loui

sian

aAl

abam

aM

aryl

and

Okl

ahom

aKe

ntuc

kyAr

kans

asM

issi

ssip

piD

elaw

are

Wes

t Virg

inia

Dis

trict

of C

olum

bia

Cal

iforn

iaAr

izon

aW

ashi

ngto

nC

olor

ado

Uta

hN

evad

aO

rego

nId

aho

New

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Haw

aii

Wyo

min

gAl

aska

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Min

neso

taM

isso

uri

Wis

cons

inIll

inoi

sIo

wa

Kans

asN

ebra

ska

Sout

h D

akot

aN

orth

Dak

ota

Penn

sylv

ania

New

Yor

kN

ew J

erse

yM

assa

chus

etts

Mai

neN

ew H

amps

hire

Con

nect

icut

Verm

ont

Rho

de Is

land

Texas and Florida in the southern region stood out with the maximum number of approvals for the construction of detached houses In looking at the other regions California had more than 50000 approvals but the rest had 30000 or less

NortheastSouth West Midwest

State-wise number of Approvals for new housing constructions (Detached houses 2016)

(Number of approvals)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 296

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

San Jose

San Francisco

Honolulu

San Diego

Los Angeles

Houston

Dallas

Atlanta

Phoenix

Washington

Seattle

New YorkDenver

BostonPortland

In the metropolitan areas in south such as Texas have a great number of new housing constructions while cities with high residential prices are concentrated in California

Main southern cities

Main cities in California

Other mature cities in the entire USA

City-wise Residential prices and Approvals for new housing constructions (2016)

Prices of detached houses (in thousand dollars)

Num

ber o

f appro

vals for d

etac

hed h

ouse

starts

Source US Census Bureau National Association of Realtors

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 297

The number of rental housing constructions was suddenly increasing after 2009 but the number constructions was decreasing after 2015 except for the western region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

(Thousands)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 298Source) US Census Bureau

The calculation has been done based on the running average of data for all the four quarters

Trends in percentage of owner-occupied houses Trends in Percentage of vacant houses

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

The rate of owned houses and vacant houses continued to decrease together but this fall came to the end in 2016

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 20170 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 299

There is no any significant change in the trends of most recent rents

Trends of region-wise rent (Median)

($)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

西部

北東部

南部

中西部

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

West

Northeast

South

Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 300

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

Source US Census Bureau

Number of new housing starts

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The Seattle metropolitan area includes 3 counties ndash Snohomish King and Pierce

After the Lehman shock many large-scale apartments were constructed in the Seattle metropolitan area (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA)

(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 301

The average price of detached houses is about $500000 With land prices the cost of construction is also sharply risen

Year Land HomeValue

Structure Cost Land Value

2000 $278695 $112257 $166438 5972001 $292826 $119354 $173471 5922002 $303519 $121947 $181572 5982003 $323773 $125821 $197952 6112004 $359056 $141585 $217471 6062005 $424912 $152219 $272692 6422006 $479951 $163874 $316077 6592007 $488499 $172756 $315744 6462008 $431855 $186623 $245231 5682009 $387317 $191347 $195970 5062010 $368625 $194053 $174572 4742011 $346949 $204023 $142926 4122012 $372227 $207086 $165142 4442013 $419730 $215593 $204137 4862014 $446107 $233255 $212852 4772015 $488054 $236426 $251628 516

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Q4 data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 302

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

Regarding the Seattlersquos local residential market more than 50 of the houses are apartments In the suburbs the number of detached houses and apartments are almost same

Source US Census Bureau

Figure showing the Seattle city and the surrounding areasNumber of approvals for housing starts in Areas surrounding

the Seattle city (King County) (2016)

Other areas refer to the total number of cities in the King Country

SeattleBellevue

Redmond

Other area

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Other areas

Redmond

Bellevue

Seattle

1-unit 2-units and up (House)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 303

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The vacancy rate of rental houses is rapidly decreasing which is less than 3 in the all metropolitan areas In the post-2014 the standard rent of Seattle was significantly higher than the average rent of metropolitan areas

Trends of Vacancy rate Trends of Rent (Median)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

$400

$600

$800

$1000

$1200

$1400

$1600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

0~

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 304

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The number of new housing constructions (including both detached houses and apartments) in the Dallas metropolitan area (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA) showed recovery with more than 25000 constructions

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

0

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 305

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The average price of detached houses is $250000The cost of construction is dramatically rising accounting for 70 of the home value

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Year Land ShareHome Value Structure

Cost Land Value

2000 $173678 $92517 $81161 467

2001 $182559 $98406 $84154 461

2002 $186525 $100648 $85877 460

2003 $187431 $104288 $83143 444

2004 $190797 $116052 $74745 392

2005 $199596 $124130 $75466 378

2006 $202951 $132730 $70221 346

2007 $200595 $139192 $61403 306

2008 $193454 $150854 $42599 220

2009 $196089 $150857 $45232 231

2010 $189138 $153876 $35263 186

2011 $187611 $161438 $26173 140

2012 $198238 $163952 $34286 173

2013 $218014 $169417 $48597 223

2014 $234604 $182252 $52352 223

2015 $256583 $236426 $72860 284

Q4 data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 306

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the cities such as Dallas Fort Worth Frisco and McKinney a large number of detached houses and apartments are constructed In particular the surrounding areas of Dallas have mainly apartments whereas the northern region mainly has detached houses

Main cities in the suburbs of Dallas Number of approvals for housing starts in main cities (2016)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Detached houses

+ Apartments

FortWorth

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Celina

Prosper

Little Elm

Irving

Farmers Branch

Carrollton

Garland

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Farmers Branch

Garland

Carrollton

Irving

Prosper town

Celina

Little Elm

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Fort Worth

1-unit 2-units and up

Mainly detached houses

Mainly apartments

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 307

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the northern part of Dallas there are successive expansions and relocations of offices of large companies The increase in employment depends on the increase in population

Large-scale offices recently relocated to areas surrounding the Fresco city

Source Plano Economic Development

Company name ServiceYear of

completionNumber of employees

Capital One Finance Headquarter 2017 5500

JP Morgan Chase amp CoUnder

construction6000

NTT DataNorth America

HQ2017 2250

West Plano

submarket

Frisco

Location of each city

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 308

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 309

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

4 Office market

Since the 2008 global financial crisis US employment has been recovering quickly

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

US unemployment rate is lower than it had been a decade ago before the financial crisis consequently leading to an increase in those in the US workforce

US Unemployment Rate US Employees

Rate ()

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

Employees(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 310

4 Office market

The US has also witnessed a rise in the number of new established companies thus presenting new opportunities for office real estate market

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

Each year the number of established companies less than 1 year old or newly established companies has been rising since the financial crisis

Corporate Establishments Less than 1 Year Old

400

500

600

700

800

No of Established Co(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 311

Among New York Houston Chicago and San Francisco Houston is the only city headed downwards in GDP

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

4 Office market

Certain cities in the US have shown comparably noticeable traits of market opportunities

New York

Houston

Chicago

San Francisco

GDP ndash New York Houston Chicago San Francisco

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP($B USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 312

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 313

5 Hotel market

With the increasing number of trips the US hotel industry will soon face the need for more lodging space

Source) US Travel Association

The number of people traveling is increasing eventually requiring more accommodation spaces The number of domestic travels within the US is far higher than the number of international travels to the US

Travels within US (Domestic) Travels to US (International)

170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 314

By class segmentations the higher-end hotels have been constructing more hotel spaces to respond to the rising demands

US hotel classes are segmented by primarily according to average room rates In a descending order the segmentation follows Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale

Economy Unaffiliated hotels are hotels not affiliated with a member organization thus varying widely in size quality and cost

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Feb 2017) Under Construction (Feb 2017)

Luxury

Upper Upscale

Upscale

Midscale

Unaffiliated

Economy

Upper Midscale

236

1167

1383

1795

937

1524

2958

437

1412

31933254

432121

1152

Pric

e

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 315

By cities New York has been constructing double triple the amount of hotels compared to other metropolitan areas

Although Las Vegas leads in the total number of existing hotels New York has been constructing more hotel spaces

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Mar 2017) Under Construction (Mar 2017)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 316

5 Hotel market

Even by some of the more well-known tourist destination cities the RevPAR is predicted to continue to increase

Source) HVS Global Hospitality Services

Like the nationwide trend individual cities have also experienced slow growth in terms of RevPAR since the 2008 global financial crisis

New York is notably much higher in terms of RevPAR in comparison to other metropolitan cities

US Hotels ndash RevPAR by City

New York NY

Los Angeles CA

Washington DC

Las Vegas NV

Chicago IL

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rev ($ USD)

Estimated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 317

5 Hotel market

While Airbnb does pose as an lodging alternative to hotels the performance of one market does not impact the other

Source) Boston University

Boston University conducted research on the relationship between Airbnb and hotels in Boston Though Airbnb experienced increases in occupancy growth and RevPAR the gains did not affect the Boston hotelsrsquo

performance

Hotels

Airbnb

Boston ndash Occupancy amp RevPAR (2015-2016)

Occupancy Rate ()

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

Rev ($ USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

中国

Yinghua BAI PhDNRI Shanghai Division Manager

Expertise urban planning regional development and planning of real estate business strategy

Wen WANGNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise regional development industrial strategy and planning of real estate business strategy

Siwei LIUNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise real estate business strategy China marketingbusiness strategy of Japanese companies

Fang QINRI Shanghai Asst Consultant

Expertise regional development planning of real estate business strategy

韓国

JaRyong CHOINRI Seoul Sr Exec Director

Expertise real estate and retail business strategy urban and regional development investment planning

KangTae PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

SungWoo PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

台湾

Michihiro KONAGAINRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise infrastructure development and business strategy planning in infrastructure market

Chi han CHIANGNRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise policy and development planning PPP advisory in land development domain

Jen-hua LiuNRI Taiwan Asst Consultant

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

シンガポール

Toshiro TAKEKOSHINRI Singapore Department Head

Expertise infrastructure (real estate energy) business management and business strategies cross border MampA

Yen-Fen TEOHNRI Singapore Sr Consultant

Sana TAMURANRI Singapore Consultant

Ceputra SALIMNRI Singapore Assoc Consultant

タイ

Yuji KatoNRI Thailand Gr Manager

Expertise infrastructure business (real estate energy) finance

Panitha TeerasorakaiNRI Thailand Consultant

Orachorn SupunsaleekhulNRI Thailand Business Analyst

インド

Arpit MATHURNRI India Sr Consultant

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy and alliances real estate development support etc

Prashant AGGARWALNRI India Consultant

Expertise MampA transaction advisory business strategy financial modelling and business planning etc

Junmyong RANRI India Group Manager

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy ASEAN business strategy investment advisory etc

SungYun (Sonny) KIMNRI India President

Expertise Real estate investment market incl behavioral investment securitization financial crisis etc

Hikojiro ISOZAKINRI Global Knowledge Centre Head

Expertise Automotive and Infrastructure sector advisory investment strategy etc

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

ロシア

Andrei RODIONOVMoscow Br Div Director

Expertise business strategy global marketing MampA

Alexander KHARKOVMoscow Br Consultant

Expertise marketing in Russia business strategy economic regulation

アメリカ

Keitaro HiroseNRI Consultant

Expertise Business Strategy in Real estate and Infrastructure industry

Joshua ChoiNRI America Sr Research Analyst

Expertise Business Strategy IoT Emerging Technology

Makiko TanakaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy Fintech AI

Sherry KitajimaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy AI

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

Contact

Inquiry about this report generally or our solutions for real estate industry[Mail] real-estate-reportnricojp [Language] Japanese English

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Inquiry about reprinting or quotation of this report[Mail] kouhounricojp [Language] Japanese English

  • The Global Real Estate Market 2017
  • スライド番号 2
  • スライド番号 3
  • スライド番号 4
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • スライド番号 18
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Land Market in China
  • スライド番号 25
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Residential Market in China
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • House supply policy of China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Prospects of Chinas residential market
  • スライド番号 36
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • スライド番号 45
  • Prospects of commercial real estate market in China
  • スライド番号 47
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • スライド番号 51
  • スライド番号 52
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • スライド番号 60
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • スライド番号 68
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • スライド番号 76
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • スライド番号 82
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • スライド番号 89
  • スライド番号 90
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • スライド番号 98
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • スライド番号 104
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • スライド番号 113
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • スライド番号 117
  • (Reference)
  • スライド番号 119
  • Population Trend
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks
  • スライド番号 128
  • Office market- Geographic Area
  • Office market- Stock and Vacancy
  • Office market- Price and Rental Index
  • Office market- Future Supply
  • Office market- Cap rate
  • スライド番号 134
  • Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate
  • Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property
  • Residential market ndashFuture Supply
  • Residential market-Cap Rate
  • スライド番号 142
  • Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate
  • Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space
  • Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore
  • Retail market-CAP Rate
  • Retail market- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 148
  • Logistics Space- Geographic Area
  • Logistics Space- Demand Trend
  • Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy
  • Logistics Space- Rental Index
  • Logistics Space- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 154
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)
  • Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply
  • Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue
  • Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline
  • スライド番号 162
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • スライド番号 167
  • スライド番号 168
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • スライド番号 181
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • スライド番号 187
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies
  • スライド番号 199
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • スライド番号 204
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • スライド番号 210
  • スライド番号 211
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population GrowthIndia is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid UrbanizationIndia is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of EconomyAlthough the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world
  • スライド番号 217
  • Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and GrowthThe construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure
  • Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players PerformanceThe real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes
  • Financing Developments ndash Project Financing OptionsPrivate lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed
  • Financing Developments Trends in REITsREITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry
  • Financing Developments Trends in Domestic InvestmentsDomestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects
  • Financing Developments Trends in Foreign InvestmentsForeign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics
  • Financing Developments Debt position of leading developersDebt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default
  • スライド番号 225
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesGlobal PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesMajor global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesRecently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion
  • スライド番号 229
  • Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy ConditionsFDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years however recent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector
  • スライド番号 231
  • Regulatory Developments ndash DemonetizationDemonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017
  • スライド番号 233
  • Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal SizeThe ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad
  • Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costsNew Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list
  • スライド番号 237
  • Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Residential Space ndash Supply Trends
  • スライド番号 240
  • Retail Space ndash Overall OutlookThe retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes
  • Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Retail Space ndash MallVacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018
  • スライド番号 244
  • Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist DestinationThe travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally
  • Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming InventoryAlthough hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory TrendsDelhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply TrendsAverage room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy
  • Hospitality Space ndash Demand TrendsOccupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year
  • スライド番号 250
  • スライド番号 251
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • スライド番号 256
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • スライド番号 263
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • スライド番号 268
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • スライド番号 272
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • スライド番号 276
  • スライド番号 277
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • スライド番号 287
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • スライド番号 291
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • スライド番号 309
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • スライド番号 313
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • スライド番号 319
  • スライド番号 320
  • スライド番号 321
  • スライド番号 322
  • スライド番号 323
Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized
03 4919 2929 0 0 0 0 0 0
04 12344 6189 5458 0 0 0 0 0
05 24064 15716 7312 9248 0 0 0 0
06 35082 20048 14636 11758 3173 0 0 0
07 72317 42532 34987 1854 7953 1223 1446 0
08 6508 3439 26179 1561 762 10519 6422 0
09 4945 28821 20857 10018 3758 4861 5197 0
10 76738 47631 39742 17782 6188 1220 7522 0
11 104025 87777 5322 27407 12393 16405 13105 0
12 112013 93221 56364 24259 11898 1450 13616 0
13 130698 107712 68086 47917 15109 31961 17999 0
14 159443 115798 80495 64488 1741 4230 18342 0
15 163131 109375 75232 6225 16744 45395 18358 6831
16 168423 127015 82747 6425 13784 41719 19079 7627
17 172877 138636 90674 69255 18147 46492 18982 1031
03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03
04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04
05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
Page 4: The Global Real Estate Market 2017 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 3

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 4

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Chinarsquos GDP overtook Japan in 2010 and the gap will expand after 2012 But itrsquos somewhat eased in 2016

(bn USD)

Source IMF

Changes in Japan and Chinarsquos nominal GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 5

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Real GDP growth rate has been on a downward trend since 2007and it hasreachedthe lowest level in 2015 whichrsquos behind the transition from investment-led growth to consumption-led growth

Source The National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes in real GDP growth rate of China and sectoral contribution

()

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Net Exports Gross Capital Formation Consumption Real GDP Growth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 6

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

The national average of per capita GDP in 2015 increased by 3222 yuan as compared with 2014 Just as the three big cities of Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Jiangsu Province has also reached high income national standard of US$12616

(RMB)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note World Bank definition of high-income country GDP per capita ge USD 12616 (about RMB 83619 according to the rate on November 1 2017)

High-income country Average RMB 83619

GDP per capita by provincemunicipality directly under the central government (2015)

China Average RMB 50251(2014 data RMB 46629)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 7

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

In the background of industrial upgrading the tertiary industries have been growing with their contribution to a GDP growth of over 50 in 2016 This growth became the main factor for increasing real estate investment in urban areas

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(100 mil Yuan)

Trends of Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Overall GDP GDP of tertiary industries Percentage of tertiary industries accounting for in GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 8

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

From 2014 to 2015 the proportion of tertiary industry was increasing in every region Shanxi Gansu Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces showed particularly high growth rates of more than 5

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Percentage of tertiary industry GDP as a whole by region (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Beiji

ng

Shan

ghai

Xiz

ang

Hai

nan

Shan

xi

Tia

njin

g

Heilo

ngjia

ng

Gua

ngd

ong

Zhejia

ng

Gan

su

Jia

ngsu

Chongq

ing

Lia

oni

ng

Shan

dong

Yunna

n

Gui

zhou

Xin

jiang

Nin

gxia

Hunan

Sic

huan

Hube

i

Fik

oam

Qin

ghai

Shan

xi

Neim

eng

gu

Henan

Hebe

i

Jia

ngxi

Anh

ui

Jili

n

Gua

ngx

i

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2015)

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2014)

China Average(2015)502

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 9

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population

The peak-out of productive-age population is coming therersquos a widespread concern about economic slowdown

Source Compiled by NRI from UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

(1950=100)Peak

Productive-age population of China and Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 10

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

After 2015 when it is estimated Chinas demographic dividend disappears the government has to face an increased financial burden a decrease of the labor force a consumption slump and other problems due to a declining birthrate and aging population

As a countermeasure in January 2016 the government abolished the ldquoOne-child policyrdquo and formally adopted the ldquoTwo-childrdquo policy At present there are many families who canrsquot produce the second child due to high childcare expenses and education costs However looking at the remarkable population increase in 2016 it can be seen that this policy was effective

The number of births in China in 2016 was 1788 million which increased by 132 million compared with 1654 million the averagenumber of births from 2012 to 2015

On the other hand for the proportion of people over 65 years old it has exceeded 10 in 2016 following Japan China is predicted to enter an aging society after 2025 and into a super aged society after 2035( If the aging rate exceeds 14 it is classified as aged society if over 21 it is classified as super aged society)

As the measures to cope with declining production population and the rise in the number of elderly population Two-child policy has been officially introduced since 2016 which is expected to boost economic growth

() ()

Change in proportion of young population (lt15)

Source UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

Change in proportion of 65+ population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 11

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Chinarsquos urbanization rate had risen by more than 30 points from 1991 to 2016 The National New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) was issued by the State Council of China on 16th March 2014 The plan highlights

that it is essential to raise the quality of urbanization that comes in line with the Chinese approach to urbanization The plan also underlined that by 2020 permanent urban residents will reach approx 60 of the population while residents in the city census register will account for approx 45 of the total population with 100 million rural residents settling down in the urban areas

Urbanization rate in 2016 reached 574 which is expected to reach 60 of the policy goal in 2020 in another two years

Note) Total population in 2020 is the estimate value of UN while the urbanization rate is the target value stated in government policy

(10000 People )

Source China Statistical Yearbook amp UN World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision

Population and urbanization rate in china

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

30000

60000

90000

120000

150000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20ETotal Population Urban Population Urban Population Ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 12

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Urbanization which has progressed mainly in the coastal area has progressed to inland regions and the Northeast such as Liaoning Chongqing Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang The four provinces of Tibet Shandong Guizhou and Hebei are particularly fast to progress in this year

Urbanization rate of China by area (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Shan

ghai

Bei

jing

Tia

njin

gG

uangd

ong

Lia

onin

gJia

ngs

uZhe

jiang

Fik

oam

Cho

ngq

ing

Neim

eng

guH

eilo

ngj

iang

Shan

dong

Hube

iJili

nN

ingx

iaH

aina

nShan

xiShan

xiJia

ngx

iH

ebe

iH

una

nA

nhu

iQ

ingh

aiSic

hua

nXin

jiang

Gua

ngx

iH

ena

nYunn

anG

ansu

Gui

zhou

Xiz

ang

2014 Ratio() 2015 Ratio()

China Average(2015)561

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 13

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions

Although the newly constructed housing construction area in the urban area which peaked in 2011 had a somewhat declining trend since 2011 when the real estate market regulation were implemented it still was over 1 billion square meters per year

(100 million m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics amp MOHURD China

(m2 per capita)

Changes in construction area of new houses in urban areas Changes in housing area per capita in urban areas

CAGR174

Note) Until 2012 public data from the National Bureau of Statistics is used while the data of 2013 -2016used is published by MOHURD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 14

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend

In the past 16 years the per capita disposable income in urban areas increased at an average growth rate of more than 10 indicating a steady growth in Chinas urban Individual consumption ability

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(RMB)

Disposable Income per Capita and Growth Rate in Urban Areas

CAGR107

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 15

Nationwide average 62 of household income per capita is due to salary income and 17 is due to transfer income The cities with high property revenues including real estate income are Beijing (15) Shanghai (14) Zhejiang (11) and Yunnan (11)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note Salary income wage income Business revenue revenue from commercial buying and selling activities Asset income revenue from moveables and real estate Transfer income income from severance pay pension etc

(RMB)

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

Source of annual household income per capita of urban population by region (2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 16

Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2015 exceeded 30 billion yuan which was 77 times as much as that of 2000 Especially since 2007 it increased at an annual growth rate of 16 per year and urged construction demand of commercial facilities

(100 mil Yuan)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and Its Growth Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 17

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 18

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment which shows about 20 of fixed asset investment in urban areas has expanded at a rate of 20 since 2000 However it has declined to a low level due to the recent slowdown in fixed assets growth

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

Growth Rate Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

CAGR218

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 19

Chinas Real Estate Investment

In the three areas of Beijing (56) Shanghai (55) and Hainan (51) real estate investment in urban fixed asset investment is high In proportion to other areas the areas of less than 50 is more than 18 of nationwide average

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

National Average (18)

The Ratio of Real Estate Investment in Urban Fixed Asset Investment by Region in 2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 20

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Regarding the ratio of real estate investment to fixed asset investment all of the regions declined in 2015 compared to the previous year except for North China region Real estate activities are still most active in the southwestern region

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi ShandongSouth Central China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi HainanSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region in 2015

Overtime Comparison of Growth Rate of Proportion of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region (2014-2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 21

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment in Urban China has been a major driving force in GDP growth so far In recent years the growth of GDP is slowing somewhat due to the slump in real estate investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The conventional housing distribution system was abolished

Change in Growth Rates of GDP and of Real Estate Investment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 22

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Even if the real estate investment value rises year by year 23 of that is still housing investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The Percentage of HousingCommercialOffice Investments in Real Estate Investment (2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 23

Land Market in China

In urban areas of China both commercial and residential land tend to be higher and in terms of historical trends prices of residential land and commercial land will rise at a pace that is significantly higher than the overall average Land price is continuously increasing

While the land supply of urban areas is restricted by the government intense bid auction between real estate development companies is also a factor that invariably leads to an increase in land prices

Land price temporarily declined in 2011 due to the influence of real estate market regulation but after that its turning again to an upward trend Its particularly noteworthy that the increase rate of residential land prices was doubling in 2016 compared with the previous year

Source China urban land price monitoring data

(RMBm2)()

Change in Land prices in urban areas of China Change in Land price appreciation rates in urban areas of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 24

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 25

Chinarsquos Residential Market

During the 10 years to 2011 there was a period in which the supply speed of commercial housing slowed down due to a tightening or adjustment of policy Needs for housing however expanded and the completed area was raised by a high average growth rate of 117

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down The housing supply volume from 2014 to 2015 has been reduced by 10 We can see that the housing supply is decelerating

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down and the deceleration of housing supply in urban areas will be strengthened

(10000 m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The area of commercial residencesrsquo completion in China

CAGR117

CAGR-02

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 26

Chinarsquos Residential Market

In 2015 the number of new commodity houses completed in China is 755 million units which is 293 times as large as the number of newly built houses launched in Japan in 241 units

In 2015 the supply of commodity housing in urban area of China is 750 thousand which is equivalent to the scale of about 29 times of the sale of residential housing in Japan although it is 8 lower than the previous year

(10000 House) (m2 per house )

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The number of commercial residence completions and transition of its average completion area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 27

Residential Market in China

Approximately 30 of the housing construction area is concentrated in the four municipalities of Chongqing Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Construction area decreased more than 60 of cities from the previous year Growth of regional cities such as Lanzhou Nanjing and Guiyang attracts particular attention

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Areas of Completed Residential Properties among Major Cities

National Average Growth Rate10

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 28

Chinas Residential Market

The selling price of commercial residences has risen by 32 times during the last 15 years with this trend being especially evident among luxury properties

(RMBm2)

Note) Since sales prices of the economical housing for low-and-middle income earners in 2011 were not reported in the China Statistical Yearbook 2012 the data here was calculated on the basis of data in 2010 by CAGR at 110

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Selling price of commercial residences in China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 29

Chinas Residential Market

Sale price of residential properties has risen by more than 80 in the last 7 years Shenzhen Shanghai Nanjing and Xiamen each have a price increase of 13 times or more

(RMBm2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Sale Price of Commercial Housing in Major Cities (Comparison between 2008 and 2015)

National Average Growth Rate81

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Selling Prices in 2008 (left scale) Selling Prices in 2015(left scale) Increase in 7 years since 2008(right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 30

Chinas Residential Market

For the past 15 years the annual income ratio of house price in China has changed to about seven times but there was not much change

Shenzhen Shanghai and Beijing are particularly fluctuating Especially in Shenzhen the house price annual income ratio of this 15 years rises nearly five times and it becomes the city which is the most difficult to obtain housing in China

With respect to the annual income ratio of house price Shenzhen is the highest at 28 times followed by Shanghai (21 times) Beijing (18 times) and magnifications tend to expand from the previous year in addition to Guangzhou and Shenyang

Source Statistical material by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the National Bureau of Statistics

(Times)

The housing selling prices to income ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 31

House supply policy of China

Monetary easing policies were implemented after the Lehman shock resulted in skyrocketing housing prices in Beijing Shanghai and other major cities in China As a countermeasure the Chinese government implemented a series of policies that made it more difficult for the acquisition of houses after October 2009

Although house price fluctuations were affected by political tightening and repetition of mitigation and others it was never stopped to raise housing prices especially in large cities while rather acquiring houses became increasingly difficult

Although the policy implemented by the government from 2009 had some effects in reducing housing prices it could never stop the housing price rise and housing acquisition difficulties

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Monthly sales price of commercial housing compared with that of the same month in the previous year (after 2007)

End of 2008 Economic recovery through reduction of interest rates and exemption of real estate acquisition tax etc

October 2009Implementation of housing price suppression policies Abolishment of tax incentives (real estate transaction tax and personal income tax) Implementation of differentiated housing loan policy

March ~ April 2010Purchase of house was limited in 48 cities Higher down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Restriction of banking loan to developers

January 2011Further increase of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Trial introduction of property tax for the third house in Shanghai and Chongqing Increase of house supply through provision of affordable houses

September 2014 Decrease of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house by the central bank Policy for limiting house purchases was abolished in most cities Promoted expansion of financing route and supported banks and other financial institutions to issue housing bonds and REITs

Restriction Easing Easing

()

February~March 2016bull In cities without purchase constraints the

reduction of initial payment of housing loan to 20 was possible

bull Possible further reduction in real estate transaction taxes and business tax

April 2016bull Only First Class Cities such as Shanghai

Shenzhen successively issued new policies to constrain purchases

February~March 2015bull The central government and regional governments will issue

relaxation policies such as consumption acceleration of houses at stock in the Second- and Third-class cities tax reduction supply of subsidies to solve regionality and constitutive issuesof the real estate industry

Restriction

March 2017bull The Tier1 and Tier2

cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen have launched regulation policies continuously

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 32

Government Housing Policy in China

Chinas housing market has been spurred as a vicious circle like if policy loosens itll be overheating If policy ties down itll cool downldquo and it has been supported by high demand so the price rise is expected to continue focusing on 70 cities around the future

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The change of cities number with the housing pricersquos deviation at the link relative ratio in the 70 major cities of China (2011-20179)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 33

Government Housing Policy in China

In July 2017 the government announced the latest policy about the development acceleration of the lease house market targeting at the large and medium-sized cities where lack lease house seriously

The extracts of Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a

net population inflow ( publication with July 26 2017 )

There is a large population to flow into the large and medium-sized cities every year in China The actuality is that the absolutely needed quantity of the leasehold property is insufficient The floating population in 2016 of China reaches 245 million In addition the annual new college graduates are about 7 million people

According to the rental market research report published by Lianjia Research Institute of a large real estate intermediary company focusing on Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou the floating population in Tier1 cities will account for more than 40 of the overall population in the future

In order to solve the new housing problem of the citizens in large and medium cities in July 2017 Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a net population inflow (Hereinafter referred to briefly as ldquonotificationrdquo)

According to the notification in the large and medium cities with a net population inflow therersquore some problems with insufficient total rental housing market disorder imperfect of payment support system and introduced relevant policies to speed up the construction of rental housing and rental housing market cultivation and development

Promote more specialized and large-scale enterprises engaged in leasing residential enterprises

Establish a government property rental housing transaction service platform

Expand the supply of rental housing Renewal of rental housing management and service system

The extracts of the model plan of utilizing a group construction site to build the lease house(publication with August 28 2017)

Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other developments selected Beijing Shanghai Shenyang Nanjing Hangzhou Hefei Xiamen Zhengzhou Wuhan Guangzhou Foshan Zhaoqing Chengdu and other 13 cities as pilot cities for the development of rental housing policy

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 34

Prospects of Chinas residential market

In 2018 the characteristics of residential market in China are as below The rental housing market in the Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is on the rise and the supply scale of the medium and large housing has expanded

Directions of Chinas residential market in 2018

bull The contradiction between the inflow of new population and the unaffordable housing in large and medium-sized cities has widened

Increase the supply of rental housing in Tier1 and Tier2 cities with significant population inflow

bull The new housing requirements spawned by ldquotwo-child policyrdquo and the maintenance demand to child care-related service

The demand for large and medium sized housing that value child-rearing and related service enrichment is expanding

bull The diversification of residential demand in Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is coexistent with high housing price

Strong Tier1 and Tier2 cities have boosted the residential market in Tier3 and Tier4 cities

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 35

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 36

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

As a result of the slowdown in consumption growth and the impact of e-commerce the supply of commercial facilities has been gradually decreasing in the years since 2013

(10 thousand m2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Nationwide Commercial Facilities Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 37

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Investment in commercial facilities has been steadily increasing at an average annual rate of 26 by 2014 but significant investment continued to decelerate after that

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Investment Amount and Growth Rate of Commercial Facilities

CAGR230

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 38

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

The average sale price of commercial facilities has recovered slightly in the past two years and has increased in north China and eastern China and has decreased in south China

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in China

The sale areas and sale price of commercial facilities in eachregion(2015 and 2016)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

North China Northeast

China

Eastern

China

South Central

China

Southwest

China

Northwest

China

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (left scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (right scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 39

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Sales of commercial facilities in Guizhou Chongqing Hainan Henan and Gansu have all doubled in the last five years By contrast sales in the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning Heilongjiang and Jilin) have declined significantly

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities by Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 40

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

Office supply in urban areas in China has experienced a downturn after the Lehman Brothersrsquo failure in 2008 however a growing trend with a low completion rate continues as a whole

(10 thousand m2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Change in Nationwide Office Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 41

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

By 2014 due to the rapid increase in investment in the office market the construction of office buildings also welcomed Immediate peach And in the last three years as investment growth has slowed the office market has regained its stability

(100 mil Yuan)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Investment Amount Growth Rate of Office Development

CAGR21

CAGR33

CAGR8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 42

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

More than 40 of office sales are concentrated in eastern China In the last two years the sales volume has increased by more than 30 which is concentrated in east China and north China and the unit price has been increasing again

(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices in China Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices by Area (2014 and 2015)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

North China Northeast China Eastern China South Central

China

Southwest China Northwest China

Sales Spaces of Office in 2015 (left scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Office in 2015 (right scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 43

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

In the last five years sales of office buildings in Shandong Xinjiang Guizhou and Chongqing have been extremely brisk In contrast Liaoning and Tianjin saw a significant reduction in sales volume

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Office Sales Spaces by Region

14082

-562

88282

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 44Source Public information of Commercial Property Cloud Think Tank

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Chinarsquos commercial real estate market tendency of shopping center

In recent years the opening area of shopping center in eastern China has been in the first place but it has shown a deceleration trend On the other hand central China is more in Tier2 cities and inland cities where the development of shopping centers is booming

In 2016 the number of newly opened large-scale shopping centers in China was 465 which have a total development area of 43193500increasing by 321 compared to 2015

In 2016 the area with the most new openings was east China followed by north China and south China Compared with the slowdown in central China the development of the southwest region has attracted considerable attention

The opening area of the first-class city accounts for about 15 of the total and the new first-class city with remarkable growth accounts for 25 of the total Small scale projects of less than 200000 are mainstream

The area and quantity of new opening shopping centers in 2016 Number of new start-up shopping centers by size in 2016

Note) The shopping center here is counted only for large projects over 30000 Note) First-class cities refer to the four cities of Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou and ShenzhenNewfirst class cities refer to the 15 cities of Chengdu Hangzhou Wuhan Tianjin Nanjing Chongqing Xian Changsha Qingdao Shenyang Dalian Xiamen Suzhou Ningbo and Wuxi

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 45

Prospects of commercial real estate market in China

In 2018 the commercial real estate market in China needs to build a construction facility and operation management system that adapts to the present era and citizens consumption behavior

Directions of Chinas real estate market in 2018

bull Update needs of existing traditional commercial business Differentiation development needs during commercial setting Compounding construction needs in commercial development delayed region

Modification of existing commerce centered on Tier1 and Tier2 cities new construction of Lifestyle-based small-scale specialty commerce and construction of a large complex commercial centering on Tier3 and Tier4 cities

bull Activation of everyday consumer behavior relying on online more and more in theTier1 and Tier2 cities

Establishment of a new commercial business model including the introduction of online-offline business model and examination of operations management system accordingly

bull Lack of a convenient community of nearby commercials that can adapt to todays era and citizens life

Construction of a living-oriented neighborhood commerce tackling many business styles such as childcare and senior services

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 46

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 47

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In 2016 the top 10 companies were the same as last year but the ranking changed The most notable was that Evergrande Real Estate surpassed the industrys largest enterprise Vanke Real Estate to become the No1 in the industry

Rank2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales1 Vanke Group 1215 Vanke Group 1452 Vanke Group 1776 Vanke Group 2120 Vanke Group 2627 Poly Group 2627

2 Dalian Wanda Group 953 Poly Group 1020 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1625 Shanghai Greenland Group 2080 Evergrande Group 2050 Vanke Group 2050

3 EvergrandeGroup 804 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1013 Poly Group 1251 DalianWanda Group 1501 Shanghai Greenland

Group 2015 Country Garden 2015

4 Shanghai Greenland Group 770 China Overseas

Land 945 China Overseas Land 1103 Evergrande Group 1376 Dalian

Wanda Group 1513 Shanghai Greenland Group 1513

5 Poly Group 732 Dalian Wanda Group 938 Evergrande Group 1073 Poly Group 1362 China Overseas

Land 1492 Poly Group 1492

6 China Overseas Land 708 Evergrande Group 925 Country Garden 1068 Country Garden 1250 Poly Group 1471 China Overseas

Land 1471

7 Country Garden 432 China Greentown 547 Dalian Wanda Group 844 China Overseas

Land 1152 Country Garden 1402 Longfor Group 1402

8 Longfor Group 383 China Resources Land 505 China Resources

Land 688 Shimao Property Holdings 708 China Resources

Land 851 RampF Properties 851

9 China Greentown 353 Country Garden 491 Shimao Property Holdings 683 China Resources

Land 700 Sunac China 731 Country Garden 731

10 China Resources Land 330 Shimao Property

Holdings 461 China Greentown 660 Sunac China 658 China Fortune Land Development 725 Dalian Wanda

Group 725

TotalSales 6680 8297 10771 12907 14877 22022

Total Share within

National Sales

113 129 133 169 170 1872

Average Coverage 405 Cities 531 Cities 672 Cities 737 Cities 751 Cities 875 Cities

Source) Compiled by NRI based on publicly available information and the data of each companyrsquos homepage

Comparison of Developers Top 10 (2011~2016)Unit 100 mil RMB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 48

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In the recently announced Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017 domestic capital and Hong Kong-Singaporean companies accounted for half of the total SCPG whichrsquos the subsidiary of Vanke Real Estate has replaced Wanda group enter the Top3

Rank Company Name Company Nature Overall Rating Score Representative Commercial Project

1 China Resources Land domestic capital 897 Shenzhen MIXC

2 Hang Lung Properties Hong Kong capital 879 Plaza 66

3 CSPG domestic capital 866 Wuhan INCITY

4 Wanda Commercial Real Estate domestic capital 858 Wanda Plaza

5 Longfor Properties domestic capital 824 Chongqing North Street

6 Capitaland Singapore captial 823 Raffles City Shanghai Plaza

7 SHK Properties Hong Kong capital 817 ICC Shanghai

8 Swire Properties Hong Kong capital 815 Chengdu TaiKoo Hui

9 Joy City Properties domestic capital 809 Shanghai Joy City

10 Wharf Holdings Hong Kong capital 808 Shanghai Time Square

Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017

Note) November 2017 New perspective media announced TOP 100 enterprises in 2017China Commercial real estate Four indicators are used in the overall evaluation (full mark 100 points) as management (40 points) management (30 points) brand (20 points) and innovation (10 points)

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 49

bull The government will introduce various incentives to expand the rental housing market

The new type of residential leasing enterprises centered on large state-owned enterprises keeps pouring out

bull Real estate developers are actively involved in the construction of a small town (street) in the background of the new city

Work with other companies across industries to develop new real estate products

bull From the previous emphasis on the development of real estate developers a focus on industrial agglomeration and cultivation of operation managers

Real estate developers have diversified into other businesses as well as the rapid growth of industrial property developers who are engaged in the development and operation of industrial parks

1

2

3

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 50

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 51

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 52

Macroeconomic trends

The Korean economy is expected to continue growing at a low rate of 3

The trend and forecast of GDP and economic growth rate in Korea

SourceNRI based on IMF (201710)

GDP CAGR in 90s

67

GDP CAGR in 00s

42

Expected GDP CAGR after 2011

30

600

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

500

400

300

200

100

0200

2200

1200

0199

9199

8199

7201

5199

5199

4199

3199

2199

1199

02020(E)

2019(E)

2018(E)

2017(E)

2016(E)

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

1996

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

295296296302283279331290

650546518

392490

743

1131

957921

1035981

229368

071

283293

453

892

-547

592

760685

618

GDP (Real GDP Trillion Won) Economic Growth Rate ()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 53

Macroeconomic trends

Interest rate has declined to 1 since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 Low interest rate is expected to increase the liquidity

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Interest Rate (1998-2016)

475525

4 425375

325375

455

3

225

325275 25

215 125

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10yr Treasury Bond (average)

3yr Cooperate Bond aa- (average)

CD 91 days (average)

Call Rate (overnight average)

Base Rate

(unit )

Consistent downturn in interest ratesince 1998

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 54

Macroeconomic trends

With the implementation of a loose monetary policy for economic revitalization the amount of domestic currency is continuously increasing and market liquidity is expanding

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Trends in average balance of KRW (1998-2016)

rsquo98年以後

持続的な増加傾向

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Lf M2 M1 ハイパワードマネー

Consistently increasing trendsince 1998

(unit Trillion Won)

Note High-powered money = Currency issued + KRW deposited in financial institutions and The Bank of Korea M1 (consultation currency) Currency-in-circulation + demand deposits and savings account balance where deposit or withdrawal can be done any time - mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

M2 (Broad currency) M1 + time depositssavingsreservespayments + market-based financial instruments (CDRPAccommodation bill) + financial instruments offering dividend + bank debentures + others (investment securities and savingspromissory notes issued by financial companies) - long-term financial instruments (2 years)mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

(Liquidity of financial institutions) M1 + Savingsreservesbank debentures within M2 with maturity period of 2 years or more + deposits with Korea Securities Finance Corporation + reserves for insurance contracts with life insurance companies (including post offices) + deposits excluding those of agricultural cooperatives or country people - mutual dealings of such financial instruments between institutions covered in Lf

High-powered money

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 55

Macroeconomic trends

Valorization Policy maintains Consumer Price Index at approximately 1

Changes in Consumer Price Index(CPI) Year-on-year Ratio

(unit Year-on-Year )

271

191

250265

210

176203

384

237260

367

207

126 125

070097

328

168

280

356

306

243257

444

182

303

406

165

071084

-022

067

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CPI CPI for living necessities

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea Media Research

Note CPI is calculated on a monthly basis assuming year 2015 as 100 and covering 481 items (weighted average) for research

CPI for living necessities provides a separate summary of 142 products that are designated as daily necessities or those that are purchased frequently out of the total 481 products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 56

Macroeconomic trends

After the Lehman shock the wondollar exchange rate fell However it started to rise after 2014

WonDollar exchange rate trends

907

1411

1013

1145

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

05

01

05

06

05

11

06

04

06

09

07

02

07

07

07

12

08

05

08

10

09

03

09

08

10

01

10

06

10

11

11

04

11

09

12

02

12

07

12

12

13

05

13

10

14

03

14

08

15

01

15

06

15

11

16

04

16

09

17

02

17

07

(unit Won)

It started to increase after 2014

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Note Based on the current price of KRW USD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 57

12655 11795 33593

18656

81148 105940 98677

Current account

Macroeconomic trendsThe current account surplus is slightly lower (approximately 990 dollars) than the one last year which was recorded the highest This is because of the fall in exports and the deficit in service balance resulted from recession in construction and transportation industry

Current account trends

-70000

-20000

30000

80000

130000

180000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Balance of secondary income

Balance of primary income

Balance of services

Balance of goods

(unit million dollar)

345115

728805 622212

303672

636241

484159

Exports of Goos amp Services

Imports of Goods amp Services

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 58

Macroeconomic trendsThe rise of the rate of employment and unemployment The rise of the employment rate is attributed to increase in the middle-agedelderly workers However for job seekers in their 20s the work environment is not improving

Employment Rate and Unemployment Rate in Korea Employment Rate by Age

(unit ) (unit ten thousands people) (unit )

Improvement in employment rate

389 378 371 365 361 357 363 369 375

601 584 583 579 576 574 571 568 564

655 652 655 661 662 664 668 667 664

430 450 479 508 535 561 585 599 609

264 269 274 289 311 329 349 366 388

595

586 587591

594 595

602 603 604

50

52

54

56

58

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10s 20s 30s 40s 50s over 60 Employment rate

No of employees over 50s(372 )

590

600

593

598 597 597 598

595

586 587

591

594 595

602603 604

40

33

36 37 3735

32 32

36 37

3432 31

3536 37

00

10

20

30

40

50

57

58

59

60

61

62

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Employment rate Umemployment rate

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (KOSTAT)

Note Employment Rate=(employeepopulation over age 15)x100 Unemployment Rate=(The UnemployedEconomically Active Population)x100

Improvement in both employment

and unemployment rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 59

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 60

Office market trends

The Seoul office market is divided into three categories CBD government agencies and conglomerate headquarters YBD financial district GBD IT district

Sphere wise office market of Seoul

Seoul City hall

bull The largest office district with a long history

bull Developed since the 1960s and has a high level of infrastructure

bull The highest rental rate in Korea bull Conglomerate headquarters foreign

companies in Korea (Seoul) insurancesecurities companies government agency buildings embassies etc

bull Developed since the mid 1980sbull Lower vacancy rate than the other

districts due to low new supplybull Rent rate in between two other

districtsbull ITconglomerates and foreign

companies

CBD(Central Business District)

GBD(Gangnam Business District)

bull Developed since the late 1980sbull Rent is lower than CBD and GBDbull Headquarters of financial

institutions such as banks and securities

YBD(Yeouido Business District)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 61

Office market trends

Regarding the domestic office market the supply of new offices increased mainly in CBD and YBD after 2010 After 2014 the supply of new offices mainly increased in GBD

Trends in new supply of offices in Seoul

CBD Central(1970 to 1986)

GBD Central(1987 to 2009)

(unit 万)

CBD(2010

to 2011)

YBD(2012 to

2013)

GBD(2014

onwards)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

70 72 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 62

Office market trends

The vacancy rate of new prime offices in Seoul was 8 and the rental rate reduced to 87K KRW33m2Month

Vacancy rate of prime offices in Seoul Rental rate of prime offices in Seoul

(unit KRW33Month)

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 63

Office market trends

The number of major office transactions in Seoul was 72 and it is rapidly increasing with the total sale price

Number of Seoul office sales and total sale prices

(unit Trillion KRW)(Unit sale)

Note Offices with total floor area of 3300m2 or more only are covered

25

35

57

4241

52 26

39 38

53

48

57 58 59

51

46

72

17 19 26

22

28 26

12

41 42 48 46

55 56 60

70

36

88

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Total Sale Price

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 64

Office market trends

The office sale price was about 48 Millionm2 and the cap rate was 53

Sales volume and pricem2 by office district in Seoul

2488 2818

3658 4034

3513 3760

4103 4284 4297

4632 4787 4829

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Averaged Sale Pricem2

(Unit Ten thousands ) (Unit Thousand KRW)

79

73

67

62 6366

68

60

54

59

48

53

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 65

Office market trends

In 2015 the averaged volume of office sales was 19000m2 and the averaged sale price per 33m2 was about 16M KRW

Sale price per volume by office district in Seoul (2016 property transaction)

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Note This analysis covers 43 offices with transactions concluded mainly in CBD GBD and YBD in 2016Transactions for the completion of construction in 2016 IFC individual transactions etc 7 cases are excluded

(Price ten thousands KRW33m2) (unit ten thousands KRW33m2)

Volume(m2)

CBD GBD YBD

1500

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1000

500

9000060000300002000010000 250000 1500050000

35000

National Health Insurance Corporation

Teheran building

Capital TowerCosmos building

Daewoo Shipbuilding amp Marine Engineering Building

Center point opticalization

Samsung Lifes Head Office

International building

Jong-Ro Tower

Average transaction cost1791(10K KRW 33)

Average transaction area19474 ()

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

00

1955 Million KRW

2005 Million KRW

1328 Million KRW

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 66

Office market trends

The office market Cap rate in 2015 was about 5 and Spread of government bonds was 4

Trends of Seoul office cap rate and T-bill

Source NRI based on Media Research

41 42 32

48 34

25 21 09 04

15 22 18 27 23 27 26 31

7869 66

51 47 50

52 54 56 52 48 42

35 33 32 23 22

119 111

98 98

8275 73

62 6067 70

60 6156 59

49 53

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

스프레드 국고채 10년 Cap rate(unit )

ldquoPositioning investee companies as steady and profitable with the 3 level Spreadrdquo

Real estate market activities

Temporary market stagnation due to

financial crises

Alternate investments becoming active due to low-interest rate policy

Spread T-bill (10yr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 67

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 68

Residential market trendsThe domestic household debts have increased to 1300 Trillion KRW Among these home equity loan accounts for 40 Also the default risk is rising because of decline in real estate prices and increase in interest rates

Trends in scale of household finance

665724

776843

916 9641021

10891203

1344

293 311 338 363 392 404 418 461 491546

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

가계대출 주택대출(単位 兆ウォン)

440

430436

430 428

419409

423408 406

주택담보대출비중Unit Trillion KRW Weight of home equity loan

Household finance Housing loan

Source NRI Analysis National Statistical Office (NSO)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 69

Residential market trends

The land price index and the land transaction volume are gradually rising

Land Transaction Volume and Land Price Index1)

224 229 223207

233

204224

264

309 300

28 26 23 17 19 16 20 26 36 37

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

National

Seoul

890 887 895 905 915 924 935 953

976 1002

Land price index1)

Land transactionvolume

(unit No of lots)CAGR193

CAGR66

(Lot unit 10 thousand number of case )

Note 1) Based on Land Price Index 2016121 = 100

Source NRI based on data from Real Estate Official Statistics Network (httpwwwr-onecokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 70

Residential market trendsThe housing transaction volume was showing recovery after 2012 however with the increase in uncertainties such as the credit examination strengthening and the interest rate increase in USA it has slightly decreased

Transition of National Housing Transaction Volume

(unit no of transaction)Transaction volume of metropolitan areaaccounts for about 54 of that of nationwide

384777

385400 443923475075

517361

608424

463459

488757

543062

581909

484807

2015

1193691

611782

2014

1005173

462111

2013

851850

363093

2012

735414

271955

2011

981238

372814

2010

799864

282503

2009

870353

395278

2008

893790

449867

2007

867933

482533

2006

1082453

697676

2016

1053069

568262

Capital areaRural area

212978221683

148266111889

83257114315

88737138016147023159396

263599

Seoul

Source NRI based on data from Onnara Real Estate (httpwwwonnaragokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 71

Residential market trends

The supply of housing units increases since 2013 especially in apartments In 2016 about one million units are newly supplied

Housing supply by types of housing

544909

644512

459887 468642 504481

804019 854095

658025

727354

1085838 1055149

412891 476462

263153 297183 276989

356762 376086

278739

347687

534931 506816

106251

152042 186637

163357

219823

349661 340477

277594 274869

350463 341915

25767 16008 10097 8102 7669 13596 13532 32692 41170

105112

128450

84000 124000

69000 63628 95332

77968

-

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total Apartment Multi-unit dwelling Officetel Urban-type housing(unit no of housing supply) (unit no of house)

Source NRI based on statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation

Official statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation do not include some officetels and urban-type residences hence the gross households supplied would be different from what is mentioned in this report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 72

Residential market trends

The average Housing Price Index has been increasing since 2013 especially in Seoul and the metropolitan area

Housing Price Index (10 years) Housing Price Index (3 years)

(unit index) (unit index)

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

Note Standard of National Housing Price Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source National Statistical Office

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 73

Residential market trends

The Jeonse (House Lease) price index has consistently illustrated an upward trend in these ten years However recently the growth rate has slowed down

Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (10 years) Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (3 years)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

940

945

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

1055

1060

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Capital AreaNational Rural AreaSeoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

(unit index) (unit index)

Note Based on National House Lease Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source NRI based on Korea Appraisal Board

Jeonse refers to the way houses are leased Instead of paying monthly rent a renter will makea lump-sum deposit on a rental space at anywhere from 50 to 80 of the market value

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 74

Residential market trends

The Jeonse cost is about 68 of the Housing price The standard in the capital area being 70 it is mainly increasing in Seoul and capital area

National Jeonse Cost to Housing Price

556 563 566 572 577 586 593 584 593 606 616 622 626 631 638 646 653 661 672 678 680 680

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11

3Q

11

4Q

12

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

13

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

14

1Q

14

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

15

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

16

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

National Capital Area Seoul Rural Area

(単位 )

CAGR

National

Capital Area

Seoul

Rural Area

10

16

16

05

Source NRI data from based on The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 75

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 76

Commercial facilities market trends

The retail market scale has reached approximately 300 trillion KRW including the both online and offline especially the online business that has shown a remarkable increase

OnlineOffline Retail Market Scale (2006-2016)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores) Online market = Computer shopping mobile shopping (excluding TV home shopping and catalogue shopping)

The total sales of large marts calculated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) excludes the sales of duty free shops and includes those of complex malls and Auretto Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Korea Online Shopping Association

309

243(79)

66(21)

2015

2016

287

233(81)

54(19)

2014

273

227(83)

45(17)

2013

265

226(85)

40(15)

2012

260

225(86)

36(14)

2011

249

217(87)

32(13)

2010

224

201(90)

23(10)

2009

208

188(90)

21(10)

2008

198

179(91)

18(9)

2007

188

172(92)

16(8)

(Unit Trillion KRW ) オフラインオンライン

CAGR (2007 to 2011)

73

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

44 CAGR(2007 to 2011)

60 20

191 164

Online Offline

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 77

Commercial facilities market trends

Among the offline stores CVS has been leading in growth while the other businesses stay on slow growth

Offline Retail Market Scale (2011-2016 business type wise)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores)

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO)

233

102(44)

49(21)

29(12)

29(13)

7(3)

17(7)

2014

227

102(45)

47(21)

29(13)

29(13)

7(3)

13(6)

2013

226

103(46)

46(20)

30(13)

28(13)

7(3)

2012

12(5)

225

45(20)

2016

243

103(42)

53(22)

30(12)

30(12)

106(47)

7(3)

20(8)

2015

29(13)

28(12)

7(3)

11(5)

Department stores Speciality retail stores

HypermarketSM (excluding SSM)SSM (Corporate supermarkets)

Convenience stores

CAGR

01

82 239

13

(2012 to 2014)(2014 to 2016)

29 56

38 28

24 26

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

49

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

32

(Unit Trillion KRW )

-17 03

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 78

Commercial facilities market trends

Regarding SM market the growth rate remains in 2 range and SSM rate stays 20 range

SM market scale (2012-2016)

SSM = Lotte Super GS Retail Home Plus Everyday Retail Seowon Distribution Fishery Cooperatives and Logistics and CS Logistics standards

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Distributors Yearbook

(unit Trillion KRW )

304(80)

74(20)

2015

368

283(81)

68(19)

2012

295(80)

73(20)

2014

359

289(80)

70(20)

2013

351

2016

378

275(81)

340

65(19)

25

33

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

27

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

26

SMSSM

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 79

Commercial facilities market trends

The Online market is rapidly growing more than 10 every year and purchase channel is shifting from computer to mobile

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 procurement channel wise)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association

(Unit Trillion KRW )

2016

657

2013

397

244(45)

295(55)

317(70)

135(30)

452

2014

356(54)

301(46)

2015

539

59(15)

338(85)

2012

366

26(7)

340(93) 919

-30

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

MobilePC

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 80

Commercial facilities market trends

In looking at the business types the growth of online stores is led by the expansion of open market and social commerce

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 by business type)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association and Justice Committee Meeting

(Unit Trillion KRW )

254(56)

300(56)

328(50)215

(60)233

(59)

2016

657

98(15)

230(35)

2012

358

19(5)

124(35)

2015

539

80(15)

159(29)

2014

452

55(12)

143(32)

2013

397

34(9)

130(33)

505

167

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

OthersSocial commerceOpen market

112

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 81

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 82

Investment market trends

REITs market has expanded to 25 Trillion KRW In recent years REITs are mostly by Private Offers

Trends in scale of domestic REITs market

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

공모 사모

4 8 10 12 14 18 20 36

50 69 71

80 98

125

169

리츠수

(AUM Standards Unit Trillion KRW individuals)

06 10 14 17 33 50 4970

7682 95

117149

180

245

Funds REITsPublicOffer

PrivateOffer

Source NRI Analysis KORAMCO Korea Financial Investment Association

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 83

Investment market trends

The market has been gradually changing for the past 10 years shifting the focus from CR-REITs to externally-managed REITs

Trends in composition ratio of domestic REITs

(総資産基準 )

1000 1000 1000

637541 707

650

694 644 630527 404 367

309

208

363459

293340 300 346 337

427563 605 667

780

10 07 10 33 45 33 28 24 12

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠 위탁관리리츠 자기관리리츠Corporate

Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

Source NRI Analysis REITs Information System

(Level of total assets )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 84

Investment market trends

With the reduction of composition ratio of CR-REITs the composition ratio of listed REITs is also reduced to 14

Trends in proportion of domestic and listed REITs

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠

위탁관리리츠

자기관리리츠

778

1000937

783

588

367 329

174104 127 122 122 89 59

14

系列1(Level of total assets )

Proportion of listed REITsCorporate Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

The real estate prices were calculated keeping the index as on December 2015 as 100 and beneficiary rate was calculated based on the Housing Price Index

Source NRI Analysis Factset Bloomberg Kookmin Bank Korea Investment amp Securities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 85

Investment market trends

In looking at the each sectors the diversification of REITs assets is growing including domains such as retail logistics and hotel

44

31 3223

1622

29

46

100

50

7571

100

2861

45

3150 40

38

25

50

2529

17

8

9

8

1819

1713

6

8

56

10 99

8

7 9

5 55 5

22

4 4 1 2

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

기타

호텔

물류 공장

리테일

오피스

주택

(unit )

Others

Hotel

LogisticsFactory

Retail

Office

House

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (numbers of REITs)

Source NRI based on Korea Financial Investment Association Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport Korea Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts KORAMCO

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 86

Investment market trends

In looking at AUM basis the majority of REITsrsquo assets are still by the offices and housing

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (AUM-based)

(AUM 基準 )

05 08 12 13 23 37 36 44 49 5671 81 89 89

112

1013 12

19 1718

1723

27 29

35

00

07 09 0604

05

2449

83

0103

08

09

13

15

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

오피스 리테일 주택 기타オフィス リテール 住宅 その他

Source NRI Analysis Korea Financial Investment Association KAREIT

AUM standards Office Retail Housing Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 87

Investment market trends

The margin ratio of REITs is 6 range having less fluctuations than the other financial instruments

REITs dividend yield ratio

(単位 )

85 66 84122 119

404

280 261

86 83 71 92 62 81 66

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

국고채 10년 기준금리 리츠수익률 코스피수익률(YoY)

Source NRI Analysis

T-Bill (10yr) Base rate REITs margin ratio

KOSPIMargin ratio

(YoY)Unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 88

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 89

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 90

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The area of the dominated territory of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is equals to that of Kyushu and with 23 million

90

Country name Republic of China (Founded Oct 10 1912)(The relocation of the Chinese Nationalist Party to Taiwan was in 1949)

Era name Minguo (2017 AD= Minguo 106)

Capital Taipei City (Population 269 million)

Major cities Shinipei City (Population 398 million) Taoyuang City (217 million) Taichung City (278 million) Tainan City (189 million) Kaohsiung City (278 million)

Area Approx 36197 km2 (2016 A bit little smaller than Kyushu Japan)

Population Approx 2355million (as of Jul 2017)

Ethnic Composition Han Race 98 Aboriginal 2

Currency New Taiwan dollar (NTD) 1 NTD=Approx 366 yen (As of Jul 2017)

Nominal GDP USD 5299 billion (2016)

Nominal GDP per capita USD 22540 (2016)

No of Japanese residents 21887 (as of Oct 2016)

Number of Japanese companies Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Taipei member firms 466 (Mar 2017)

Number of travelers between Japan

From Japan to Taiwan from Japan 190 million (2016)From Taiwan to Japan from Taiwan 430million (2016)

Overview of Taiwan

Matsu Kinmen Region

Penghu Islands

CapitalTaipei

TaichungCity

Kaohsiung City

Tainan City

ShinpeiCity

TaoyuangCity

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 91

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population of childbearing age has reached the apex The total population is predicted to decrease after 2020 and thus the issue of population decline has emerged

Population has been expected to reach the peak in around 2025 and after that population in Taiwan may decease gradually

Population in Taiwan by age-group

Popu

latio

n (th

ousa

nd))

Source NRI based on the CEPD Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

5739 5716 5525 5076 4703 4259 3624 3188 3062 3038 2851

11361 12621 13607 14650 15652 16295 17050 17366 16847 15998 15161

766 977

1269 1631

1921 2217 2488 2939 3788 4698 5574

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-64 Ages 65 or overlarrActual Forecastrarr

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 92

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population density in Taiwan is approximately twice as that in Japan

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in population distribution

Land area

36197

377972

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2016)

(kmsup2)

Total population

24

127

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

Population density

651

335

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

x 19

(百万人) (人 kmsup2)

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 93

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

GDP per capita of Taiwan is about 67 of that of Japan and income level is 83

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in the scale of economy

Exchange rate (Date Dec 2015)1USD = 11605 YEN1USD = 32171 NTD

GDP

5299

49386

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(億ドル)

GDP Per capita

22540

38917

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

Household income

38960

47031

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(ドル) (ドル)

X 083

X 058

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 94

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Taiwanrsquos economy showed negative growth during IT bubble of 2001 and the financial crisis after Lehman Shock of 2009 but it quickly returned to stable growth trend

Since 2010 European debt crisis has worsened the global economy In the meanwhile US Domestic manufacturing has growth and the Chinas ldquoRed Supply Chainrdquo has risen Accordingly Taiwanrsquos export decreased which causes decline in GDP growth rate

Taiwanrsquos GDP growth rate slightly declined at the level of around 15 while is expected to increase 122

GDP growth rate in Taiwan

-165

526

367

619

470 562

652

070

-157

1063

380

206 22

402

072148

211 227

-5

0

5

10

15

()

(y)

Forecast

Source NRI based on the DGBAS Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 95

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The cross-strait relationship has improved greatly since 2008 While after 2016 the interaction between these two countries may reduce

History of Cross-strait relationshipMay 2008 Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party becomes the 12th President of Taiwan

Jul Chinese tourists to Taiwan was deregulated (Group tour)Dec The Three Links (Liberalization in commerce transportation and postal service) is implementedDec Cross-Strait Conference on the Cooperation and Exchange of the Chinese Medicine Industry which is the project representing the cross-

strait industrial bridge was held in Taipei

Apr 2009 The third summit meeting of cross-strait contact points was held A memorandum on cross-strait financial cooperation (concerning banks securities and insurances) was signed and chartered flights were decided to be increased and become scheduled

Jul Chinese investment into Taiwan was deregulated (63 kinds in manufacturing 24 in service and 11 in public works was released to be invested by Chinese)

Nov Cross-Strait financial MOU was signed (Put into effect in January 2010)

Jun 2010 The Fifth ChenndashChiang summit was held Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was signed and 267 Chinarsquos products and 539 Taiwanrsquos products are listed in the tariff concessions

Jan 2011 Started waiving import tariffs (so-called Early Harvest list)

Nov Both sides agreed on industry cooperation in following segments (LED Municipal Wireless Cold Chain Logistics TFT-LCD EV)

Aug 2012 The customs authorities of Taiwan and China signed a Cross-Strait Customs Cooperation Agreement regarding customs service smuggling crackdown and tariff reduction

Aug Both sides reached a consensus to promote a mechanism of transparency information loosing investment limitations to promote prosperity

Jun 2013 The Cross-Strait Agreement in Trade in Services based on WTO framework is signed It proposes opening up over 100 services sectors in phases

Mar 2014 Taiwans ruling Kuomintang party attempted a unilateral move in the Legislative Yuan to force the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement to the legislative floor without giving it a clause-by-clause review Such an action occurred An Anti-Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement demonstration on the next day

April Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng visited the occupied parliament chamber and promised to postpone review of the trade pact until legislation monitoring all cross-strait agreements has been passed

May 2016 Since 20th May 2016 Ing-wen Tsai has begun her presidency and claimed that the relationship between Taiwan and China in the next four years will remain steady

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 96

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Although the current Taiwan-China relation is not as warm as before the number of flight between these countries is higher than between Hong Kong and China

No of Destinations in China 2017 No of flights to China 2017

1178

1312

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

HK

Taiwan

47

71

46

55

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

HK

Taiwan

No of destinations between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

No of flights between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

Unit FlightsweekUnit Destinations

Source NRI based on the Civil Aeronautics Administration of the MOTC ROC(Taiwan) and Airport Authority Hong Kong

The estimation is based on the public release the of Civil Aviation Administration of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 97

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 98

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

Following 8 areas compose major office districts in Taipei City

Major office areas in Taipei City

Hsin YiWorld Trade Centerbull Redeveloped under the Hsin Yi Development Plan Area with the

highest office rent level in Taipeibull Highly convenient due to the large concentration of administrative

financial trade exhibitory leisure and residential functionsbull Offices of global companies such as IBM and Microsoft located

Neihu Science Park districtbull The area Government aims to develop as a

science park districtbull Holding a large concentration of IT industry

headquartersbull Its traffic convenience has improved due to the

extension of MRT

Dun Hua NMinshengbull Having the second largest concentration of

luxury offices (Hsin Yi area is the largest) and being home to many financial service industries

bull Traffic convenience significantly improved after the SongShan airport became an international airport

Dunnanbull Holding a large number of well-known companies and foreign firmsbull Holding many financial companies as well as many traditional

industriesbull With its traffic convenience having developed to be a complex of

residential and commercial area

Songjiang Nanjingbull Area with the highest office density in Taipeibull Holding a large number of offices of Japanese

firms as well as traditional industries financial services and travel industries

Taipei station areabull Area centering Taipei station where the lines of

Taiwan Railways MRT and the High Speed Rail intersect

bull The first area in Taipei City where offices were developed with a large concentration of financial insurance industries and government institutions

Taipei station

area

Hsin YiWorld Trade

Center

Zhong Shan Northbull A large concentration of offices commercial

facilities and hotelsbull Many offices of Japanese firms are also

located

Taipei SongShanAirport

Nanjing Fuxingbull A class offices are concentrated in this area

providing comprehensive commercial financial services

bull The opening of MRT Songshan-Xindian Line in 2014 has made making journeys even more convenient

Zhon

gSh

an N

orth

Song

jiang

Nan

jing

Dun

Hua

M

ings

heng

Dun

nan

NeihuScience

Park district

Fusi

ng N

anjin

g

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 99

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

A number of great office buildings were completed in 2014 in Zhong Shan and Nan Gang district and thus more than 40000 tsubo of office spaces were provided In the meanwhile the office demand in Taipei grow Consequently there is a downward trend in the vacancy rate of office buildings which was below 7 in Q4 2016

By the end of 2017 lsquoTaipei Nan Shan Plazarsquo around Taipei 101World Trade Center Station and the headquarter of Taiwan Cooperative Bank around Nanjing Fuxing Station will be completed and thus 70000 tsubo of new office spaces will be available As a result the vacancy rate of office buildings may remain high

Office vacancy rate rose to more than 9 in 2015

Supply of new offices and vacancy rates in Taipei City

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16New supply (left axis) Vacancy Rate (right axis)Completion of Taipei 101

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Completion of FargloryFinancial Center

The headquarter buildings of Taiwan Cooperative Bank and China Trust were completed

Area

of n

ew s

uppl

y (P

ing)

Vaca

ncy

rate

()

Source NRI based on the Taiwan real estate yearbookNote The bar chart indicates the total area of annual new supply

New office buildings under

construction

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 100

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The average A-class office rental prices of CBD in Taipei is NTD2385 per tsuboper month (around yen8603 per tsubo per month)

Overview of major office areas (Q2 2017)

District Supply floor space (Tsubo)

A-class office Vacancy rate

()

B-class office Vacancy rate

()

A-class office avg rent

(NTDTsubomonth)

B-class office avg rent

(NTD Tsubo month)

Taipei station district 60310 55 15 2200 1706

Chung Shan North district 32932 -- 47 -- 1747

Songjiang Nanjing district 260955 182 84 1995 1762

Minsheng Dun Hua N district 262776 90 55 2277 1755

Dun HuaJen-Ai district 175763 70 42 2450 1787

Xinyi district 311328 102 31 3001 1721

Average rent 2385 NTDTsubomonth

Source NRI based on CBRE data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 101

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The number of office construction license issuance decreased significantly in the first half year of 2016 Accordingly the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

The number of construction license issuance has reduced since 2014 and thus the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

Source NRI based on statistics by the CPAMI ROC(Taiwan)

Number of office construction license issuance and total floor space licensed for construction in Taipei City

444080

926739

544258

207831

314769

461971 438809 416413 394913

1123336

556589

364330

273704

542545

408558 416577

116354 -

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Floor area squares (right asix)

License amount(left axis)

Jan-Jul

No

of c

onst

ruct

ion

licen

se is

sued

Tota

l hou

ses

spac

e of

con

stru

ctio

n lic

ense

issu

ed (m

2 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 102

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The existing offices in Taipei metropolitan are mainly located in central Taipei The outer metropolitan region such as Zin-Ban Fuchung Area and Nankang Area have been regenerated in the

recent years Accordingly the number of new office buildings has increased in these areas

Three new CBDs around central Taipei have been developed recently and thus the supply of commercial buildings is predicted to increase

TaipeiMain Sta

XimenArea

DunpeiAreaNanjing E

Rd Area

XinyiArea

NankangArea

Zin-BanFuchung

AreaFar EsternMemorialHospital

Area

Taipei City

DunnanArea

Existing Office Area

New Office Area

Zin-Ban Fuchung Areabull Rent 1300NTDTsubobull Zin-Ban Special Zone is located around

Banqiao station which is a terminal station of TRA MRT Taiwan-HSR

bull The highest office in Shinipei City ldquoFar Eastern Buildingrdquo(50F) has been opened in Jul 2013

MRT Far Estern Memorial Hospital Areabull Rent1200 NTDTsubobull New area of office with almost bran-

new officebull The most famous office of this area

is T-park built by FEG Group

Nankang Areabull Rent1200 -1300 NTDTsubobull This Area is expected as a new CBD of

Taipei because of being a terminal station of TSHR and 2 lines of MRT

bull Numerous offices have been and will be constructed in this area

Shinpei City

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 103

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 104

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

Since Taoyuan has been designated as a special municipality the population of it growth dramatically The Taipei Metropolis is reshaped where 40 of total population live in it

The location and population (2015) of Taipei City Keelung City and Shinpei City

Taipei CityPopulation 269 million

Keelung City Prpulation 037 million

Shinpei City Population 397 million

Taoyuang City Population 217 million

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 105

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a significant population growth in West Taipei Metropolitan area especially in West Shinipei City

Population Changes in Taipei City and Shinipei City over the last 5 years (2011-2015)

Shinpei City

TaoyuanCity

Keelung City

Greater Taipei Area

Taipei CityNew-Town regionDanshui

Linkou

Sanxia

MRT development

region

LegendAvg annual growth rate

-2 le CAGR lt -1-1 le CAGR lt 00 le CAGR lt 11 le CAGR lt 22 le CAGR lt 3

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 106

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The population of East and West Shinipei City and the central Taoyuan City has increased greatly which lead to soaring property prices in these areas

CAGR of the Land Price of Residential District in Taipei Metropolitan over the last 5 years (2013~2017)

Legend

0 le CAGR lt 2

2 le CAGR lt 4

4 le CAGR lt 6

6 le CAGR lt 8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 107

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The construction of MRT is one of the causes of the accelerating urban sprawl

MRT construction status around Taipei Metropolitan Area

【Distance from Taipei City 10km】

【Distance from Taipei City 5km】Wugu

Taishan

Xinzhuang

Luzhou

Banqiao

Zhonghe

Xindian

Muzha

Nangang

Neihu

Xizhi

Danshui

Beitou

Dazhi

Sanchong

Danshui

Xin-beitou

Luzhou

New Taipei Industrial Park

YongningDingpu

Fu Jen UnivHuilong

Sanchong

Nanshijiao

Jingan

GutingCKS Memorial Hall

Zimen

MinquanW Rd

Taipei Main

Station

Taipei Zoo

Songshan

Taipei NangangExhibition Center

SongshanAirport

Dapinglin

Xiaobitan

Xindian

To TaoyuanAirport

Banqiao

Elephant Mt

ZhongxiaoXinsheng

Shulin

Line Section Year opened

Neihu-Muzha Line

Zhongshan Junior High School hArr Taipei Zoo Mar 1996

Zhongshan Junior High School hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Jul 2009

Danshui Line Danshui hArr Taipei Main Station Mar 1997

Zhonghe Line Guting hArr Nanshijiao Dec 1998

Xindian Lian Taipei Main Station hArr Xindian Nov 1999

Nangang-Banqiao Line

Longshan Temple hArr Taipei City Hall Aug 1999

Longshan Temple hArr Xinpu Aug 2000

Taipei City Hall hArr Kunyang Dec 2000

Xinpu hArr Yongning May 2006

Kunyang hArr Nangang Dec 2008

Yongning hArr Dingpu Dec 2014

Nangang hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Feb 2011

Luzhou Line Luzhou hArr Zhongxiao Xinsheng Nov 2010

XinzhuangLine

Fu Jen Univ hArr Daqiaotou Jan 2012

Zhongxiao Xinsheng hArr Guting Sep 2012

Huilong hArr Fu Jen Univ Mar 2013

Xinyi Line CKS Memorial HallhArr Elephant Mt Dec 2013

Songshan Line Songshan hArr Ximen Nov 2014

TaoyuanAirport MRT Taipei Main Station hArr Jhongli Mar 2017

Circular Line New Taipei Industrial Park hArr Dapinglin Jun 2018

Wanta Line CKS memorial hall hArr Huilong Dec 2020

Source)NRI based on the MRT Construction Dep Of Taipei City Gov

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 108

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The price of new properties in the centre of Taipei is over 1 million per tsubo And luxury real estate price in Xinyi District even reaches 3 million per tsubo

47-58

24-36

40-56

75-105

60-83

42-65

34-4838-52

43-52

90-13064-8230-40

40-6075-105

74-95

75-106

125-290

34-45

26-40

45-62

48-63

72-107

85-150120-166

113-145

48-75

87-130

45-60

125-285

88-140

72-125

85-140

46-5660-80

88-12550-65

42-63

55-78

Unit housing prices at major areas near MRT station in Taipei City and Shinipei City (Unit10000 NTD Tsubo)

Source NRI based on My Housingcom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 109

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The property price had increased steady since 2003 and reached the apex in 2013 And after that the housing price drops

Transition of housing price index

Source NRI based on Cathay Real Estatersquos Housing Index quarterly report

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Taipei City

Shinpei City

Taoyuang amp Hsinchu Region

Hou

sing

pric

e in

dex Financial Crisis

2011 Practice of Specifically Selected Goods and Services Tax Act2012 Practice of Registering the Actual Transaction Price of Real Estate2016 Practice of Consolidated Housing and Land Taxes

Note2010=100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prices of 2017 Q2Taipei City 8199 thsdTsuboShinpei City 3459 thsd TsuboTaoyuang City 2137 thsd Tsubo

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 110

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a downward trend in the number of issued housing construction license of Taipei Shinipei and Taoyuan City and thus the growth rate of new buildings are expected lower than before

While several mega infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the MRT system will be delivered in Shinipei and TaoyuanCity soon and besides Urban Regeneration Act will be modified to make the regeneration process more efficient Therefore housing supply is expected to grow in the long-term

There has been a downward trend in the number of construction license issuance recently in major cities of North Taiwan

The Number of housing construction license issuance

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Taipei City Shinpei City Taoyuang City

(No) (No)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Case No

Householde No

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

NoteThe statistic number of year 2017 only involve that from Jan to Jul

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 111

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The level of the average rental price is extremely low in Taipei City and Shinipei City and cap rates of residential buildings in these two cities ranges between 2 and 35

Cap rates of properties in Taipei City and Shinpei City

Location

Taipei City Shinpei City

Zhongshan Dist(Near MRT Shuanglian Sta)

Neihu Dist(Near MRT Songshan Sta)

Xinyi Dist(Near MRT Taipei 101 World

Trade Center Sta)

Banqiao Dist(Near MRT Baqiao Sta)

Layout 2LDK 2LDK 2LK 2LDK

Area(tsubo) 21 28 25 26

Age(year) 17 11 3 8

Rent(NTDYear) 29 thousand 32 thousand 87 thousand 41 thousand

Price(NTD) 1237 million 1509 million 2580 million 1672 million

Cap rate () 234 212 195 245

Source NRI based on interviews with owners material by 591com etc

Residential building indicate the properties that above 11 floor and have the elevator

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 112

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 113

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

International tourists visiting the Taiwan are composed of 50 Japanese and Chinese Recently the government has planned to attract more tourists from southeast Asia which is regarded as the third

biggest market after Japan and China

The tourist reduces caused by the relationship between two counties to be at a standstill While Taiwan Government is planning to attract tourists from Southeast Asia

The number of foreign tourists to Taiwan (By place of residence)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mainland

Japan

Hong Kong

Southeast Asia

Others Deregulation of group toursof mainland Chinese

Deregulation of individual toursof mainland Chinese

Japan190 million

5058

South-East Asia165 million

28312978

2248

29503378 3520

37163845

4395

5567

6087

7056

8016

9910

2624

10439

10690

Mainland351 million

Hong Kong161 million

Fore

ign

tour

ists

am

ount

(tho

usan

d pe

rson

)

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 114

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of hotel rooms has been increased since 2010 and the number of that reaches 11 thousand and the occupancy rate of accommodation remain high which exceeds 70

The number of guest rooms and occupancy rates of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Note Tourist hotels are hotels that meet the criteria set by the Tourism Bureau of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications and are broken down into international tourist hotels and general tourist hotels according to their levels There are 27 international tourist hotels and 17 standard tourist hotels in Taipei at the end of December 2016

9202 8879 8324 8013 7786 7738 7898 8323 8313 8313 8403 8834 8834

1306 12631263 1263 1383 1357

19742040 2040 2275 2330

2386 2386

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

InternationalTourist Hotels

StandardTourist Hotels

+85+50 -01 +23 +14

0

No

of g

uest

room

7202 7668 7694 7239 6931 7382 7566 7933 7869 8043 7867Std Tourist Hotels

OccupancyRate

6930 7495 7532 7216 7114 7564 7540 7772 7590 7742 7495Intrsquol Tourist Hotels

7722

7696

7689

7111

+45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 115

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of tourists visiting Taipei increases and the hotel prices rise accordingly

The average price of guest rooms of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Aver

age

pric

e of

gue

st ro

oms

(NTD

per

nig

ht)

34113565

38014015 4050

37073848

41074394

4713 4831 4811 4761

1848 1893 1986 2013 2039 21502370

26722931

3133

34723671 3703

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

International tourist hotelStandard tourist hotel

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 116

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 117

(Reference)

Regional Map of Singapore

Core Central Region and Rest of Central Region

NORTH WEST

SOUTHWEST CENTRAL

SINGAPORE

NORTH EAST SOUTH

EAST

Woodlands North Business Park

International Business Park(Jurong Area)

Jurong Island

Changi Business ParkChangi Air HubBedok

Tampines

OrchardSomerse

The MainCommercial AreaIndustrial Park

BugisJurong EastJurong West

DowntownMarina Bay

Core Central Region is postal districts 9 10 11Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa(BlueYellow and Pink)Rest of Central Region is the area within red line except Core Central RegionOutside Central Region is outside the red line of the area

SourceURA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 118

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 119

Population Trend

Population growth for non-residents and permanent residents began to grow rapidly from 1990s while the growth of the citizen base is largely attributed to permanent residents taking up citizenship in Singapore

Singaporersquos open immigration policy has allowed population to increase very rapidly but growth is expected to be moderate with tightening of immigration policy

Population in Singapore (lsquo000)

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics Board amp UN Population Data

Forecast rarrlarrActual

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-Residents

PR

Citizens

Total

A balanced moderate immigration policy is assumed for estimation of population growth from 2016-2050Non Residents includes population residing in Singapore for long-term but do not hold PR or Citizenship (eg EP Worker Pass etc)

CAGR(1970-2015)

99

39

17

28

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 120

Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP

Singapore has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world and far surpasses neighboring countries in the region

GDP per capita is also expected to continue growing from 2017-2020

Source NRI based on IMF

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Nominal GDP per Capita (USD)

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 121

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

Despite the strong GDP per capita figures Singaporersquos growth rate remains volatile due to the nature of its open economy

Effects of business cycles exerts a more pronounced effect on GDP growth rate as the Singapore economy is closely linked to the global trade cycle

Source NRI based on IMF data

Real GDP growth rate of major economies ()

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SingaporeThailand

MalaysiaIndonesia

Dot-com Bubble Burst

Global Financial

Crisis

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Actual Standard Deviation

(2000-2016)

09242542

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 122

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

This is not surprising given that net exports of goods amp services constitute more than one quarter of the Singaporersquos economy

Both domestic amp external consumption (net exports of goods amp services) are volatile and could potentially exhibit relatively large swings in periods of economic growth and recession

Source NRI based Singapore Statistics Board

Share of GDP by Expenditure ()

23 26 27 24 22 25 26 26

2926 26 27 28 27 26 25

10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11

37 36 36 37 37 37 37 37

2011

2 20 3 3

2009 2010 2012

2

2016

345169 376826322361 358517 406242390185 408686

1 0

281090

20142013 2015Net Exports Of Goods And Services

Changes In InventoriesPrivate Consumption ExpenditureGovernment Consumption Expenditure

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 123

Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate stayed in the negative range in 2015 -2016 period as a result of declining oil prices etc but expected to recover in 2017

Inflation rate is expected to stay rise between 05 - 15 in 2017 based on forecasts by economists from various investment banks This will be due to a rise in energy costs as well as fading of the temporary disinflationary effects of budgetary measures

Source NRI based on IMF data

Annual y-o-y change in Singaporersquos CPI ()

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 124

Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate

The SGD has generally been on an appreciating trend being adjusted and watched very closely by the central bank as a tool to keep prices stable

The Singapore Dollar does not exhibit much volatility as it operates under a managed float system within an undisclosed band pegged to an undisclosed basket of currencies

Source NRI based Monetary Authority of Singapore

S$ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER)

Appreciation

Depreciation

S$NEER reflects exchange rates against a basket of currencies instead of any single currencyIndex Jan 1999 = 100

05

055

06

065

07

075

08

085

98

103

108

113

118

123

128

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD

SG

D

S$N

EER

IND

EX

USDSGD

S$NEER

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 125

Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance

In spite of the relatively high level of government debt Singapore continues to be a net creditor country with AAA ratings from international credit rating agencies

Borrowings by the Singapore are matched by even higher levels of assets and the country does not run any fiscal deficits

The government is instead borrowing in order to issue debt securities which are required in the domestic bond market to provide a risk-free benchmark against other corporate debt securities

Ratio of Government Debt to GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Source NRI based on IMF data

Ratio of Government Primary Net LendingBorrowing to GDP ()

Forecast rarrlarrActual

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2017 2019 20212015 20182012 201620142009 2011 20202013

Singapore

IndonesiaMalaysia

Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 126

Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks

Consistently ranked among the top 10 countries with the lowest public perception of corruption political risks in Singapore remains low

Low political risks is one of the factors in Singapore that have contributed to a conducive environment for business amp investment

Source NRI based on Transparency International Data

Trend of Transparency International Corruption Perception Index among selected ASEAN Countries (2016)

Top 10 countries of International Corruption Perception Index(Higher ranking indicates lower risk)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

A lower score indicates greater negative perception of public sector corruption

RANK 2014 2015 2016

1 DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK

2 NEW ZEALAND FINLAND NEW ZEALAND

3 FINLAND SWEDEN FINLAND

4 NORWAY NEW ZEALAND SWEDEN

5 SWITZERLAND NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND

6 SINGAPORE NORWAY NORWAY

7 NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND SINGAPORE

8 INDONESIA SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS

9 LUXEMBORG CANADA CANADA

10 CANADA GERMANY GERMANY

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 127

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 128

Office market- Geographic Area

76 of the existing office is located at CBD area Singapore government extends the Central Business District towards Marina Bay to support the demand of quality office spaces

Major Office Area in Singapore Central Business District

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority Master Plan Mapletree Commercial Trust

Site area (ha)

Total DevelopmentGFA (mil sqm)

Total Office GFA (mil sqm)

31 177 11

85 415 282 (estimated)

24 16 11 (estimated)

Raffles Place

Extension of existing financial district

Recent developments

Office Area in Singapore2015

CBD Core sub-market

50

Fridge CBD26

Decentralised sub-market

24

bull Existing central business district is located at Raffles Place Shenton Way and Tanjong Pagar

bull To position Singapore as one of the leading financial hub government plans to double the size of the existing financial center by extending towards Marina Bay

bull Recent developments is expected to provide more than 11 million sqm of premium office space upon completion

CBD Core sub-market Raffles Place Shenton Way Marina Centre Marina BayFringe CBD Tanjong Pagar Beach Road City Hall Orchard RoadDecentralized sub-market Alexandra HarbourFront Thomson Novena Tampines River Valley

Raffles Place

Shenton Way

TanjongPagar

Marina Bay

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 129

Office market- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate decreased gradually from 2015Q2 to 2016Q2 It has started to increase since 2016Q3 when major office developments were completed

Office Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

7456 7455

7408

7553 7575 7583

7580

7559 7536

7563

7664 7730

7761

7837

10 96

84

102 10298

9695 92 91

104111

116124

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7250

7350

7450

7550

7650

7750

7850

7950

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

rsquo000 sq m nett

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 130

Office market- Price and Rental Index

Office rent has been in downwards trend since 1Q15 due to significant increase in supply in 4Q14 The capital value of office space stagnates due to the downward pressure of the declining rental

Price and Rental Index of Office Space in Central Region

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Price Index Rental Index

Index

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Note 1) The price indices are compiled from information in caveats (A legal document lodged by a purchaser to protect

her his interests after an option to purchased is exercised or a Sales amp Purchase Agreement is signed) lodged at the option stage with the Singapore Land Registry The price in 4Q98 are used as the base reference price of the index

2) Rental Index of office space are obtained from Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS)

bull The Singapore office rental market performed well in 2014 due to tight market conditions However office rental growth has been subdued since the first quarter of 2015

bull Price of office property had been stagnant since the first quarter of 2015 and eventually fall due to underperforming rental market and increasing supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 131

Office market- Future Supply

A sharp rise in office space supply is expected to outstrip the growth in demand in the coming years The pressure on vacancy rate is expected to rise

Pipeline Supply of Office Space in Singapore

367

185

20

138

36 400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 gt2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Property Total Office GFA (lsquo000 sqf)

Expected year of completion

Vision Exchange 475 January 2017

Oxley Tower 130 January 2017

UIC Building 276 April 2017

Marina One 1800 April 2017

Frasers Tower 690 April 2018

Robinson Tower 195 April 2018

Paya Lebar Quarter 8835 December 2018

Central Boulevard 1000 Q2 2020

Golden Shoe Car Park 1000 Q1 2021

Source Corporate Locations

bull Out of the office supply from 2015 Q2 to 2018 Q4 528 is located in the Core CBD 311 in the Fridge CBD and the remaining in the Decentralized sub-markets

bull Around one-fifth of the future supply is sold on a strata-titled basis it means more investment opportunity for investors that are looking for smaller and more affordable individual unit of office space

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 132

Office market- Cap rate

Cap rate of office in CBD area in 2016 is around 38 in average

2016 Capitalization Rate of Office in CBD

3938 39 42 39

3838 38 38 38

00

10

20

30

40

50

Cap rate ()

Source CapitaLand Commercial Trust 2016 annual report Keppel REIT 2016 annual report

REIT Asset Type InvestmentProperties

CapitalandCommercial Trust

bull Office (70)bull Retail (18)bull Hotel and

Convention Centre (12)

By gross rental income

bull Capital Towerbull Six Battery Roadbull One George Streetbull Raffles City Towerbull CapitaGreenbull Twenty Ansonbull HSBC Building

Keppel REIT bull Office bull Ocean Financial Centre

bull Marina Bay Financal Centre

bull One Raffles Quaybull Bugis Junction

Towers

Office REIT in Singapore

bull Capitaland Commercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust Suntec REIT OUE Commercial REIT are the major office REIT in Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 133

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 134

Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling

CAGR of condominiums market is much higher than that of HDB Foreigners cannot purchase of HDB according to Residential Property Act imposing restrictions on foreigners in

1973

More households stay in condominiums and other apartments over the years while the percentage of households living in HDB flats is slowly going down in the last 5 years

9359 9437 9484 9395 9618 9652 9811 10115

1178 1320 1269 1399 1437 1618 1708 1824

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HDB Condominiums amp Other Apartments

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics

Number of Households by Type of Dwelling in Singapore

(lsquo000)

HDBHousing amp Development Board public housing in Singapore

CAGR 562

CAGR 098

Condominiums

HDB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 135

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Around 50 of transactions for units outside Central Region dropped from 2012 to 2014 Several property cooling measures such as introducing 60 cap from 80 on the Total Debt Serving Ratio (DSR)

and 30 cap on the Mortgage Servicing Ratio(MSR) in 2013 badly affected the number of sales transactions

Dramatically dropped the demand for Private Residential Units since 2013 due to property cooling measures

(units)

Source NRI based on URA

Number of Sales transactions for Private Residential Units by area

4832 5028 3695 1976 1859

8943 90976861

4058 3828

1886523748

12163

6813 8430

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Core Central Region Rest Central Region Outside Central Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 136

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Minimum Cash Down Payment is getting higher from 10 to 25 when you purchase the 2nd and subsequent Residential property

Foreigners have an obligation to pay 15 ABSD of sales price of residential

Drastic drop of transactions of Private Residential is due to strict restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013 in addition to introduction of higher cap on DSR and MSR

1st Housing 2nd Housing 3rd Housing

LTV Limit 80 or 60 60 or 40rArr50 or 30

60 or 40rArr40 or 20

Minimum Cash Down Payment 5 (for LTV of 80) 10 (for LTV of 60) 10rArr25 10rArr25

BSD1 on first $1800002 on next $1800003 for the remainder

ABSD(Singapore Citizens) Not applicable Not applicable rArr7 3rArr10

ABSD(Foreigners) 10rArr15

LTV Loan to Value BSDhellipBuyerrsquos Stamp DutyABSDhellipAdditional Buyerrsquos Stamp DutyIf the loan tenure is more than 30 years or extends past age 65

Change of Governmental Restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013

Source NRI based on IRAS and MAS

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 137

Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate

From 2013 to 2014 vacant rate got dramatically high compared to the change from 2011 to 2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Occupied Vacant

5061

53

7989 86

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Current Stock and Vacancy of Private Residential Units (Including Executive Condominium)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 138

Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property

Sales Price Index has gradually dropped in 2013 due to higher vacancy rate over the years

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4

Sales Index of Private Residential

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 139

Residential market ndashFuture Supply

The rise in Private Residential Unites can be seen in the next years The number of new Private Residential units seems to decrease at Core Central Region

The supply for Outside Central Region is expected to be the largest for the next 5 years

1850

3578

727 661480

3862

3820

3233 3591

514

4550

7180

54963137

4099

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Core Central Region Rest of Central Region Outside Central Region

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Supply in the Pipeline of Private Residential Units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 140

Residential market-Cap Rate

Capitalization rate has been dropping due to the higher vacancy rate

29 29

24

28

24 2321 21

27 2724

2826

2422 22

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

()

Claymore HillAdmore Park(Upper Class) River Valley(Middle Class)

Capitalization Rate for Upper class and Middle class

Source NRI based on Japan Association of Real Estate Appraisers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 141

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 142

Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate

Vacancy Rate is getting higher which causes gradual increase of availability of floor space after Q1 of 2015

56335698

57175766

58185914

59485973

59495971

5990

6019

60366046

6017

603553

45

58 5965

58

6872 70 72 73

7884

75 77 81

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5400

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

20133Q

20134Q

20141Q

20142Q

20143Q

20144Q

20151Q

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Available Floor Space Vacancy Rate

Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate of Retail

(000 sq m)

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 143

Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space

Those prices were stable until 2014 but due to slowdown of demand for retail space vacancy rate is increasing and affects both of these index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space is going down affected by the higher vacancy rate in every quarter in 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Price Index Rental Index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space in Central Region

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 144

Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore

Thanks to internet accessibility high penetration of mobile devices and strong governmental support for online retailers in Singapore attract consumers to shopping online instead of going all the way to malls

Consumers previously shopped at brick-and-mortal stores now prefer to shift shopping online retailers which causes lower demand for physical shopping spaces

2611

3533

25542338

1446 1563

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Average Top 20 Top 21~40

Top 41~60

Top 61~80

Top 81~100

(SGD)

2015 2025(Estimate)Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Singapore 48 21 81 67Malaysia 91 11 152 54Thailand 113 08 202 55Vietnam 67 06 160 47Philippines 100 05 206 47Indonesia 238 06 575 80

E-Commerce market size in SEA and monthly average amount of Online shopping in Singapore by Income group

Source NRI based on Google Temasek and Department of Statistics of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 145

Retail market-CAP Rate

South East Region has highest Cap Rate according to the CAP Rate of the main malls in Singapore

Retail Capitalization Rate by Core Central Region and Other Regions

50

52

54

56

58

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Central Core Region South EastNorth West South West

Source NRI based on Capital Land Frasers Centerpoiint and SPH REIT

Central Core RegionJunction 8AtriumBugis+ Clarke Quay Paragon Wisma Atria Ngee Ann City Bugis Junction Plaza Singapura

South EastTampines Mall Bedok Point Changi City Point

North WestBukit Panjang Plaza Causeway Point Northpoint Lot One Shopperrsquos Mall Yew Tee Point

South WestJcube Clementi MallData for 2010 and 2011 are not available because Jcubeand Clementi Mall was open in 2011 and 2012 respectively

List of Malls for Capitalization Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 146

Retail market- Future Supply

This is in line with governmentrsquos strategy ldquoWork-Live-Playrdquo solutions decentralizing working and living function to Outside Central Region

New retail supply will be suburbs especially Outside Central Region and large proportion of OCR retail will be in the East

Central34

South East30

NorthWest23

North East13

Project name and location Area Name of Developer Gross Floor Area

Expected year of final TOP

Hotelretail development at Airport Boulevard

SouthEast

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

90000 sq m

na

Northpoint City at Yishun Central 1

North West

North Gem Development Pte LtdFC North Gem Trustee Pte Ltd

39050 sq m

2018

Additionsalterations and extension to existing Singapore Post Centre at Eunos Road 8

South East

Singapore Post Limited 25000 sq m

na

Hillion Mall at Jelebu Road North West

Sim Lian JV (BP Retail) Pte LtdSim Lian JV (BP) Pte Ltd

20490 sq m

na

Officeretail development for Changi Airport Terminal 4 at Airport Boulevard

South East

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

19710 sq m

na

Proportion of Future Retail Supply by locations in 2016-2018 and the 5 largest pipelines in Singapore

Source NRI based on URA IE Singapore DBS

( Based on the sq m)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 147

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 148

Logistics Space- Geographic Area

Most of the warehouse space is located in the eastern and western part of Singapore

Source Google map NRI created based on public information

Hankyu Hanshin Express Singapore ( 1 )

Company name(Number of warehouse)【Legend】

Sumitomo Warehouse (Singapore) Pte Ltd ( 2 )

Sankyu (Singapore) PTE LTD ( 6 )

KEPPEL TampT ( 5 )

MAPALE TREE ( 50 )

SCHENKER SINGAPORE (PTE) LTD ( 11 )

Kintetsu World Express ( 2 )Acsendas ( 23 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 149

Logistics Space- Demand Trend

Manufacturing activities has been expanding in the past 13 months Industrial space market is expected to improve gradually

Singapore Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) Container Traffic of Singapore Port

PMI

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb-

15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb-

16

Apr

-16

Jun-

16

Aug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb-

17

Apr

-17

Jun-

17

Aug

-17

Note Singapore PMI measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 400 industrial companiesSource Singapore Institute of Purchasing amp Materials Management (SIPMM)

279299

259284

299316

326339

309 309

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

million TEUs

Source Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 150

Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate reduced gradually from 2016Q3 to 2017Q1 but increased in the most recent quarter following the higher rate of increase in warehouse space supply

Warehouse Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

79 82 83 84 85 86 87 89 91 93 94 95 96 101

89

115

96

82

100

84

75

86

96

110 109

103101

119

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Thousands sq m

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 151

Logistics Space- Rental Index

Warehouse rental is on the downward trend in recent years

Rental Index of Warehouse in Singapore

Index

Note 1) Before 4th Quarter 2014 the rental index is computed based on transactions in the Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 the scope of the rental index is expanded to

include transactions outside Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 and 1st Quarter 2016 the weights used are fixed using 2012 and 2015 transaction values respectively

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 152

Logistics Space- Future Supply

There will be a total of 084 million sqm GFA of warehouse space expected to be completed by 2021 and a surge in supply in 2017

Pipeline Supply of Warehouse in Singapore

394

162135 140

130

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Project Description Name of Developer GFA (sq m)

Expected year of completion

Poh Tiong Choon Logistics Hub at Pandan Road

Poh Tiong ChoonLogistics Ltd 50940 2017

Warehouse Development at Benoi Road GKE Warehousing amp Logistics Pte Ltd 39760 2017

Warehouse Development at PioneerRoad

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 71680 2017

Warehouse Development at JalanAhmad Ibrahim Tuas Avenue 1

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 44310 2018

JTC Logistics Hub Gul Circle JTC Corporation 95310 2019

Warehouse Development at Tuas South Avenue 14

Diamond Land Pte Ltd 65230 2020

Major Projects in the Pipeline as of 2017 Q2

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 153

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 154

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)

Visitor arrivals into Singapore has been increasing steadily since the 2008 global recession with numbers reaching stable levels in recent years

The increase in visitors can be attributed to increasing flight capacities into Singapore especially new direct connecting flights to secondary Chinese cities as well as an increase low-cost carriers (LCC) within SEA region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore (millions) (by mode of transport) (2007-2016)

103 10197

116

132

145

156151 152

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Land

Sea

Air

Total

CAGR 45 164

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 155

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)

Indonesia China Malaysia amp Australia constitute the top four largest countries for visitor numbers in Singapore

Visitor numbers from these countries have remained in the top four ranking boosted by the services of regional low cost-carriers in the region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Top visitors by nationalities () 2010-2014

197 1960 198 200 179

120 1400 146 114 138

87 850 8282 77

73 720 7271 69

523 507 502 533 537

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Indonesia China Malaysia Australia Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 156

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)

More than half of the visitors into Singapore are here for leisure purposes and 1 in 5 are here for business purposes

The high percentage of visitors coming to Singapore for leisure purposes suggests that initiatives to boost tourism in Singapore has been considerably successful in attracting visitors into the country

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Main Purpose of Visit () 2015

58 59 56

43

77

2013

1333

812 20

2115

6

10 8 10 9 9

Total Indonesia China Malaysia Australia

Leisure Business Others Not stated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 157

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)

Indeed though visitor numbers are relatively stable throughout the year they tend to peak during festive occasions or promotional periods

The peak from June to August can be attributed to the annual Great Singapore Sale an event organized by Singapore Tourism Bard amp Singapore Retailers Association to promote tourism in Singapore

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore

Great Singapore Sale

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20162013

2011

2009

F1 Grand Prix

End-of year

Holidays

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 158

Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply

While hotel room supply continues to increase each year post-recession occupancy rates have also stabilized staying close to 85 levels

Recent significant additions to hotel supply include Westin Singapore Marina Bay (2014) Sofitel So Singapore (2014) Holiday Inn Express (2014) amp Patina Hotel (2015)

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Available Room Nights (lsquo000) amp Occupancy Rate ()

84858686878685

81

76

12378

2010

11262

14241

2013

13118

10589

2015

15131

20142012

12451

2011

+54

2016

16162

2009

10875

2008

Average Occupancy Rate ()Available Room Nights

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 159

Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue

With the exception of luxury segment all other room segments are witnessing slight declines in room rates and RevPar

This downward pressure on rates and revenues is expected to continue as the influx of new hotel rooms continue for the next few years

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Average Room Rates by Room Segment (S$)Average Revenue per Available Room (RevPar) (S$) by Room Segment

4314 43594618 4491 4482

3014

2685 2668 2651 2612

1971 1906 1852 1749 1698

1107 1004 1098 1050 987

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

35183840

40433885 3812

2647

2307 2325 2282 2216

1708 1650 1573 1495 1453

940 846 878 833 777

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

Luxury - Includes hotels in the luxury segment and are predominantly in prime locations andor in historical buildings Upscale - Includes hotels in the upscale segment and are generally in prime locations or hotels with boutique positioning in prime or distinctive location Mid-Tier - Includes hotels in the mid-tier segment and are primarily located in prime commercial zones or immediately outlying areasEconomy - Includes hotels in the budget segment and are generally located in outlying areas

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 160

Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline

The hotel industry in Singapore braces itself for a large supply influx of new rooms with more than 2000 rooms slated to be completed by end of 2017 alone

The influx of new rooms is the greatest since the completion of the two integrated resorts in Marina Bay Sands (MBS) amp Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in 2010 and 2011 respectively

Source NRI based on various sources Straits Times TODAY etc

Source NRI based on Urban Redevelopment Authority

Number of Hotel Rooms in the Pipeline Selected RecentFuture Hotel Developments (2017)

60908

2565

2464

1331

182

342

582344

58000

60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber o

f hot

el ro

oms

Existing Under Construction

Planned (Written Permission) Planned (Provisional Permission)

ExpectedCompletion Year Hotel Name No of

Rooms

2017 JW Mariott Hotel Singapore South Beach 634

2017 The Warehouse Hotel 37

2017 Ascott Orchard Singapore 220

2017 Park Hotel Farrer Park 300

2017 Santa Grand Hotel Boat Quay 41

2017 Sofitel Singapore City Centre 223

2017 Andaz Singapore 342

2017 Courtyard by Marriott Singapore Novena 250

2017 The Duxton Club 49

2017 YOTEL Singapore 600

2017 Novotel Singapore on Stevens 254

CAGR 31

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 161

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 162

REIT Market

S-REIT has grown rapidly since the successful launch of the first REIT in 2002 S-REIT market capitalization has now attained a scale of USD 556 billion

Market Capitalization of REIT In USD Billion 2002- 2017

There are 38 listed REITs as of the end of June 2017

Source NRI based on Capital IQ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 163

REIT Market

Recent yield spread between S-REIT has also stayed close to 5

Although the S-REIT dividend yield rose sharply in 2009 due to fears that the mortgage crisis would spread to Singapore it has remained at approximately 7 since then

Source NRI based on Bloomberg

Average S-REIT dividend yield and spread with 10-year Singapore government bond

()

0

5

10

15

20

25

Spread 10-year SGB Yield Average Dividend Yield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 164

REIT Market

Retail Industrial and Office REIT are the major type of REIT in Singapore S-REITs also diversify into residential hotel amp resort healthcare and data center industry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized

Market Capitalization of REIT by Asset TypeIn USD Billion 2003- 2017

Asset Composition (2017)

SpecializedHealthcareHospitalityResidentialDiversified

Office

Industrial

Retail

18348232

122

160

245

306

1 Office1 Industrial 2 Retail

1 Healthcare1 Hospitality1 Residential1 Diversified3 Office4 Industrial 5 Retail

2 Healthcare1 Hospitality2 Residential1 Diversified3 Office7 Industrial 7 Retail

1 Specialized2 Healthcare5 Hospitality1 Residential4 Diversified6 Office9 Industrial 9 Retail

Number of REIT by asset type

Source Capital IQ

Chart1

Retail
Industrial
Office
Diversified
Residential
Hospitality
Healthcare
Specialized
4919
2929
0
0
0
0
0
0
12344
6189
5458
0
0
0
0
0
24064
15716
7312
9248
0
0
0
0
35082
20048
14636
11758
3173
0
0
0
72317
42532
34987
1854
7953
1223
1446
0
6508
3439
26179
1561
762
10519
6422
0
4945
28821
20857
10018
3758
4861
5197
0
76738
47631
39742
17782
6188
1220
7522
0
104025
87777
5322
27407
12393
16405
13105
0
112013
93221
56364
24259
11898
1450
13616
0
130698
107712
68086
47917
15109
31961
17999
0
159443
115798
80495
64488
1741
4230
18342
0
163131
109375
75232
6225
16744
45395
18358
6831
168423
127015
82747
6425
13784
41719
19079
7627
172877
138636
90674
69255
18147
46492
18982
1031

Sheet1

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 165

REIT Market

S-REITs have geographically diversified portfolio with 36 of international asset

S-REIT Geographical Coverage by Asset ValueIn 2016

Singapore64

Hong Kong10

China6

Australia New

Zealand6

Japan South Korea

4

India3

Europe2

US1

Other Asia4

36 of the total asset value of Singapore REITs is contributed by foreign property asset

Overseas property assets are mainly located in Hong Kong China Australia and New Zealand

Geographically diversified portfolio is driven by these factorsbull Singapore-based REIT have to venture overseas market

due to the limited domestic real estate market Furthermore S-REIT is granted tax exemption on qualifying foreign-sources income from overseas property As of 2015 22 out of 34 S-REITs hold foreign real estate

bull Favorable tax environment in Singapore actively attracts foreign REIT to list in the country

Source DBS Bank

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 166

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 167

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 168

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population is around 66 million people Thailand is currently under military coup and the current reign of King Rama X started since October 2016

Source Department of Provincial Administration Official Statistics Registration Systems BMA Data Center The Bureau of Registration Administration Bank of Thailand Office of Ethnic Affairs National Real Estate Information Center

Country Name The Kingdom of Thailand

National Characteristic

Population 65931550 people (As of 2017)

Religion Buddhism (946) Islamism (42) Christianity (11) Hinduism Sikhism and Others (01) (As of 2014)

Ethnic Composition

Thai (987) Sino-Tibetan (08) Austroasiatic (03) Malayo-Polynesian (02) (As of 2012)

Political Structure

Political System Constitutional democracy

Head of State King Vajiralongkorn (King Rama X)

Head of Government Prime minister - General Prayut Chan-ocha

No of Ministries 20 ministries

Geographical Characteristic

Land Area 513208 kmsup2 (Japan = 377962 kmsup2)

Capital City Bangkok - Population 10765226 people (as of 2016)

Time Zone (UTC+0700) Bangkok Hanoi Jakarta

OthersCurrency Thai baht (100 Yen = 309084 Thai baht) (As of 10 April 2017)

Language Thai (Official language)

Overview of ThailandThailandrsquos map

Northern

NortheasternCentral

Eastern

West

South

Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 169

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos economy shows sign of recovery and is expected to expand continuously

Source IMF

14 17

-11

-54

42

-01

1520

03

12 10 1206 08

02 07 06

50 54

17

-07

75

08

72

27

09

29 32 30 33 32 31 30 30

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

Japan Thailand

It is expected that the growth of GDP of Thailand will be driven primarily from fiscal stimulus and tourist receipts The government policy about public investment in infrastructure advanced manufacturing and innovation-driven

projects recovery in services and private consumption could also underpin growth

GDP annual growth rate of Japan and Thailand in 2006-2022f

ForecastActual

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 170

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Service sector is a driver for GDP growth

GDP by Sector 2006-2015 (Current Value)

790 849 978 946 1138 1311 1422 1463 1330 1193

3299 3589 3843 37394325 4305 4625 4779 4878 4975

43124638

4886 4974

53465691

63106680 6996 7505

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector( as of 2015)

Services(5489)

CAGR 57

Industry(3639)

CAGR 42

Agriculture(872)

CAGR 42

Source World Bank Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 171

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Bangkok and vicinities have been the central of business in Thailand generating almost half of national GDP

Source Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

Gross Regional Product of Thailand 2006-2015

3915 4172 4380 4351 4774 4931 5377 5688 6027 6397

1481 1704 1812 1716

1966 2028 2255 2308

2392 2405

733 800 830 939

1055 1151 1278

1373 1312 1328

823 858

911 876

1069 1185

1163 1168 1141

1199

635 669

753 763

860 926

1102 1116 1100

1069

491 537

657 634

691 657

720 807 763

789

322 337

364 380

394 428

462 460 470

486

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities Eastern North Eastern Southern Northen Central Western

Eastern which ranks the second GDP generator is the special economic zone of the project Eastern Seaboard and the project Eastern Economic Corridor

Region( as of 2015)

Northeastern (971)

Eastern (1759)

Central (577)

Southern (877)

Northern (782)

Bangkok andvicinities (4679)

Western (356)

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 172

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos GDP per capita has been growing from 2006-2016 Among ASEAN it ranks the fourth after Singapore Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia

GDP per capita 2005-2016 ndash Thailand

128137

146 144160 167

182 189 191 197 204

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source IMF

52755

21497

9811

59403620 2978 2174 1865 1416 1235

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000THB thousands USD

GDP per capita 2016 ndash ASEAN countries

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 173

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Since flooding in Bangkok in 2011 interest rate has consistently declined to 150 and it is expected to stay at this level to boost Thai economic growth

Source Bank of Thailand

500

125150

487

212

504

583

272

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Rate T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 5 years T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 10 years

Rates at the end of month

Thailand interest rate in 2007-2017

Bank of Thailand announced to remain the implementation of the Expansionary Monetary Policy in order to strengthen Thailand economic situation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 174

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

THB had shown the depreciation against JPY after reaching the strongest point in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Exchange rate between THB to 100 JPY and THB to USD to THB in 2006-2017

Debt crisis in EuropeSubprime mortgage crisis in US Quantitative easing program implementation in Japan

3578

2907

3445

3048

2766

4104

2711

3128

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USD to THB 100 JPY to THB

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 175

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population has continually been aging and is expected to be aged society within 2025

National population by gender and age group in 2005 and 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Thailand 2005 Thailand 2015 Japan 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Source UN National Statistical Office

In 201518 of total population are 0-14 year age group and 10 are people over 65 years old It is predicted that within 2025 the proportion of age group of over 65 years will be 16 of total population defining

Thailand as aged society

(Thousands people)(Thousands people) (Thousands people)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 176

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

The number of households in Thailand is increasing while the family size tends to reduce The type of family changes from extend family to nuclear one

Thailand average household size in 2006-2015

Source Population and housing census Thailand National Real Estate Information Center

In 2016 Thailand has 21326000 households in total There is an increase in numbers of households in Bangkok and vicinities whereas the number of household in North Eastern which is the highest one has declined

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities North Eastern Northen

Southern Eastern Western

Central

Thousands households

34 3432 32 33 32 33 32 31

29

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Persons

Number of households by regions 2006-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 177

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Family living in Bangkok and vicinities earned the highest amount of income

Source National Statistical Office

Average annual household income in different regions in 2007-2015

RegionAverage annual household income (THB thousand)

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bangkok and vicinities 327 346 347 395 437

Eastern 227 240 271 317 332

Central 226 280 268 345 305

Southern 233 263 314 326 303

North Eastern 153 178 215 220 248

Western 193 214 205 256 245

Northern 157 186 203 232 234

Average 21657 24386 26043 29871 30057

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 178

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Household consumption House andor land Farming Business Education Others

163087

116681

134699 134900

156770

THB

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailand household debt to GDP decreased in 2017 but it is still considered at high level Household consumption and housing were the main purposes of borrowing

Average household debt to GDP in 2008-2017

517 524

579 593

662

718765

799 812 799

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average debt per household by purposes in 2007-2015

Thailand household debt to GDP had been rising for a decade and just showed the sign of decline due to the growth in GDP and shrinking in personal loan resulting from more stringent loan standard by banks

Spending on household consumption and house andor land contributed around 70 of average household debt in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 179

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Electric train transport will cover most areas of BKK within 2022 3 international airports (Don Mueang Suvarnabhumi and U-Tapao) will be linked by Airport Rail Link

Mass Rapid Transit System (MRT)

Source Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand

Line Route Start construction Open service

Current MRT network

Airport Rail Link Phaya Thai ndash Suvannabhumi Operating

Green Mo Chit ndash BearingNational Stadium ndash Bangwa Operating

Blue Bang Sue ndashHualumpong OperatingPurple Bang Yai ndash Bang Sue Operating

Planned projects

Dark RedThammasat University ndash Rangsit 2015 2018Rangsit ndash Bang Sue 2015 2020

Hua Lampong ndash Maha chai Planned Planned

Light RedTaling Chan ndash Bang Sue 2015 2018Bang Sue ndash Makksan - Hua Mak 2015 2018

Airport Rail Link Don Muang ndash Bang Sue ndash Phaya Thai 2015 2019

Dark GreenMo Chit - Khu Khot 2015 2020Bearing - Samutprakarn ndash Bangpu 2012 2019

Light GreenTaling Chan - Bangwa 2016 2021National Stadium ndash Yod Sae Planned Planned

BlueTha Phra - Bang Sue 2011 2019Hua Lumpong ndash Bang Kae 2011 2019Bang Kae - Putthanomthon Sai 4 2017 2021

Purple Taopun ndash Ratchburana 2012 2019

Orange Taling Chan ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Pink Khae Rai ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Yellow Lao Phro ndash Samrong 2017 2020Gold Krung Thonburi ndash Prachatipok 2017 2020Grey Vacharaphol ndash Wutthakat - -

Airport Rail Link Don Mueang - Suvarnabhumi - U-Tapao - -

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 180

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 181

Office market

Office market in Bangkok is concentrated in CBD Inner Bangkok and currently has been spreading to city fringe considered to be potential new CBD

Core Central Business District(Asoke Phloen Chit Sathon

Siam Silom area)

bull Inner Bangkok areabull Largest office districtbull Densely occupied by government

offices embassies financial firms and corporate headquarters

bull High rent costbull Limited supply

Potential new Central Business District

(Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 area)

bull Located the north east of the core CBD

bull Lower rent costbull More available supplybull Future hub of transport

Business districts in Bangkok

Due to the scarcity of land for development in CBD and the expansion of mass transit system to surrounding areas the area in city fringe such as Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 has been developed to be another business district

Source NRI analysis

Map of Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 182

Thousand Sqm

15

29

132

96

116107

135

146 143

118

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net new supply Net demand

Office market

The demand is expected to increase due to business expansion and governmentrsquos policy encouraging new business set-up and investment promotion

Bangkok office accumulated supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2016

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Bangkok annual net new supply and net demand in 2012-2016

Note these figures exclude multi-owner occupied premises and office buildings smaller than 5000 Sqm

Thousand Sqm

4463 4454 4478 4604 4700 4783

3801 3908 4049 4190 4333 4451

852 877 904 910 922 931

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Supply Demand Occupancy rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 183

Office market

The change of occupancy rate of non-CBD Grade A is mainly resulted from the completion of new buildings and the movement of tenants to the new ones The 9th Tower (57618 sqm) AIA Capital Centre (54000 sqm) Bhiraj Tower (32000 sqm) G Tower (66000 sqm)

The decline of amount of occupied space in CBD Grade B buildings might be a result of relocation of tenants from CBD Grade B buildings to new properties in non-CBD area due to rising rents and limited space

Asking rent space availability easy access by mass transit and good quality of office supply with supporting amenities are the factors supporting an increase of renting in non-CBD area

Even though there was more supply added for non-CBD Grade A offices the occupancy rate turned at high level in all areas

Occupancy rate by grade in 2014Q1-2016Q4

0

10

14Q

1

14Q

2

14Q

3

14Q

4

15Q

1

15Q

2

15Q

3

15Q

4

16Q

1

16Q

2

16Q

3

16Q

4

CBD Grade A CBD Grade B Overall Non-CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade B

928953

908

934

904

931

947

823812

927

884

917

80

85

90

95

100

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 184

Office market

Around 77 of the additional volume of supply for the next 3 years will be located in non-CBD area

Number of office building construction permits in CBD and non-CBD

Source Manager newspaper National Real Estate Information Center Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Planned future office supply in CBD and non-CBD 2017-2019

71

123 116 114

103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BuildingsZone Buildings Space

(sqm)

Expected completion

year

CBDGaysorn Office Tower 32000 2017

Samyan Mirttown 7000 2019

Non-CBD

G Tower (North Tower) 50000 2017

MS Siam Tower 48000 2018

Bhiraj Tower at BITEC 42531 2017

Singha Complex 37000 2018

T1 Office building 34000 2018

Shinnawat 4 31880 2017

Ladprao Hills 25087 2017

Aree Hill 23340 2018

Cosmo Office Park 12000 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 185

Office market

Rental rate is trending upwards and this trend is expected to continue in 2017 due to increasing demand and limited supply especially in CBD

736 753823 854

937 960

578 610 630 661723

818

572 593 626 646695

738

558 575 601 607 640 671

420 433 449 461 479 504

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade A Bangkok Average CBD Grade B Non-CBD Grade B

Bangkok office asking rent per square meter by grade in 2011-2016

price at the end of year

In 2016 the overall average asking rent is increasing 62 from 2015 to be THB 738 per sqm The highest rental rate growth is shown in non-CBD Grade A buildings increasing 131

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 186

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 187

Residential Market

Apart from the effect of economic slowdown more stringent mortgage loan criteria by banks significantly affected both buyers and developers especially small and medium-sized investment companies as well as newcomers of the real estate industry resulting in slow pace of sales and supply

Some Thai developers started the joint ventures with foreign companies to bring in innovation to improve construction process architecture and design and to finance projects For example Mitsui Fudosan and Ananda Development AP and Mitsubishi Estate and Sena Development and Hankyu Realty

In October 2015 the stimulus package which is the temporary reduction of transfer and mortgage fee was announced in order to boost the residential market after the market shrinking affected by the coup in May 2014

Residential market in Bangkok and vicinities have been expanding but with decreasing growth rate due to tightened lending criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Prachachat newspaper

Market value of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H1 (THB million)

Share( as of 2016H1)

CAGR 59

Condominium(4533)

CAGR 60

Housing(5467)

CAGR 57576524 699275 754221 842763 867646 813632 900096 901127

468422 545916

601852 566575 608603 596753 694000 747299

1916

890

393 475

-446

1303

341

-400000

0

400000

800000

1200000

1600000

2000000

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1

Housing Condominium Growth

THB millions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 188

Residential Market

A sign of low growth in new supply is showed in both markets since developers aim to postpone new projectslaunching until the inventory will be absorbed Oversupply could be an issue for this market especially condominium in the peripheral Bangkok since there is

remaining built-but-unsold inventory as well as supply of land for development is still high

The demand of condominium markets is supported by rising number of smaller size of family changing lifestyle and convenience in transportation and living

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The number of total supply and the take-up rate of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H2 (units)

91147 107962 114006 116133 123697 120747 125991 125099 126161

6728266874 72187 81422 78502 76963 78535 77848 77668

101312127328 142563 141741 148674 146923 160658 171796 179930

40740

4290449352 54054 57324 57364

5985659642 58957

57536175 6123 5879 6118 6107 6160 6164 6190

71327480 7428 7239 7217 7192 7286 7423 7532

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H20

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Housing units sold Housing unsold units Condominium units sold Condominium unsold units Housing take-up Condominiums take-up

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 189

Residential Market

Land price is the factor which has the most influence on the price of condominium and houses particularly condominium projects in the downtown area In 2016 overall land price in Bangkok increased approximately 4 Areas along the mass transit train lines saw an increase in price about 65-89 While midtown and

suburban showed the land price appreciation around 26-43 land prices in downtown area rose 64

Prices index of all types of properties have risen while landrsquos and condominiumrsquos price index ranked the top

Land price index and house price index by type of house for Bangkok and vicinities in 2008-2017

Note 1 Single detached house including land town house including land and condominium price indices have been constructed by using hedonic regression method (Rolling window and time dummy) (3-month moving average)

2 Land price index has been constructed by using Stratification method with monthly weight (3-month moving average)

Source Bank of Thailand Thansettakij newspaper

Reference point = 100 (Jan 2009)

89 100 102106 108 114

120 128 129 129

89

100 104106 111

124134 138 137

99118 119

131 130140

156 160171

90108

114123 124

138148

170172

40

70

100

130

160

190

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Detached house (including land) Townhouse (including land) Condominium Land

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 190

Residential Market

Criteria for good location could be the connected transportation network and the expansion of train lines in suburban areas

The majority of housing supply is condensed in suburban areas in Bangkok However they have been diffused to vicinities due to price and availability of land

Source National Real Estate Information Center Post Today newspaper

The dispersion of housing supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of housing supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

PathumThani

Bangkok

Nakorn Pathom

SamutPrakan

Samut Sakhon

LegendHousingHousing started being sold since July 2016

Nonthaburi

N = 203255

336

198

198

160

6840

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan Samut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 191

Residential Market

Supply of available land for development is still high in midtown and suburban area in Bangkok where will be the areas of the expansion of mass transit lines and facility development

In Bangkok 70 of supply is in midtown and suburban area but projects with the highest value are in the downtown area

PathumThani

Nonthaburi

Nakorn Pathom

Samut SakhonSamut Prakan

Bangkok

LegendCondominiumsCondominiums started being sold since July 2016

The dispersion of condominiums supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of condominiums supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

Source National Real Estate Information Center

N = 238887

683

153

61

8206 15

Bangkok NonthaburiPathum Thani Samut PrakanSamut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 192

Residential Market

Bangkok has the highest sold rate in housing and condominium market compared to other vicinities because of convenience of transportation and facilities

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for housing in 2016H2 The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for condominium in 2016H2

493

544

548

584

596

719

507

456

452

416

404

281

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nakorn Pathom

Samut Sakhon

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

519

567

626

680

718

797

481

433

374

320

282

203

0 20 40 60 80 100

Samut Sakhon

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Nakorn Pathom

Nonthaburi

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 193

Residential Market

Townhouse and THB 1-3 million house were the best selling products in term of units However over THB 5 million house showed increasing take-up rate

Townhouse and detached house showed a decreasing trend on demand but they still occupied around 85 of total sold units Prime townhouse in downtown or midtown became more demand since its price per square meter is lower than condominium in midtown

The number of house transfer was much less than sales particularly in houses which are less than THB 2 million because of tightened lending restrictions by banks The mortgage rejection rates were as high as 50 since borrowers especially low-to-middle-income ones have

been faced with the situation of higher level of personal debt than the required criteria by banks

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkok Post newspaper

The take-up rate of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by types in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

4725 4597 4577

3888 3827 3653

955 1123 1267

402 421 458

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Townhouse Detached house Duplexed

Shophouse Others

117 091 104

4040 3925 3921

3347 3470 3477

2495 2514 2498

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 194

Residential Market

The highest demand was shown in 1 bedroom condominium and condominium with pricing THB 1-3 million while take-up rate of over THB 5 million units is rising

For midtown and suburban areas there is an increase in supply due to land availability with reasonable price and mass transportation expansion

For downtown area there is a limited supply with the upward trend of price due to limited supply of land for development

The number of transfer units may not as high as the number of sold units because of inability to secure loan Developers had shifted their focus to the upper-end level market since this market had high take-up rate and was

less affected by strict mortgage loan criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Sold units of condominium by types in 2015H2-2016H2 Sold units of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2 The take-up rate of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

1641 1675 1924

7058 7007 6826

1197 1218 1163104 100 087

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Studio 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms ge 3 bedrooms

954 851 893

5981 5942 6094

1655 1654 1530

1411 1553 1483

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 195

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

The areas for prime condominiums are well-developed as a center of business education convenient public transport and shopping malls

Prime Sukhumvit area has 4 prime projects with 597 new units launched in 2016 which share the largest portion in supply

Central Lumpini area showed the highest growth in average selling price at 99 following by Prime Sukhumvit with 81 increase Riverside-Rama III and Sathorn-Silom area which the price rose 31 and 28 respectively

Prime Sukhumvit remains the main location of prime condominiums

2016 prime projects Location Average asking

price (THBSqm) Units

98 Wireless Central Lumpini (Wireless) 550000 77

28 Chidlom Central Lumpini (Chidlom) 350000 436

Khun by Yoo Prime Sukhumvit (Thonglor 12) 300000 148

Vittorio Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 39) 280000 88

KRAAM Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 26) 275000 126

Laviq Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 57) 240000 235

New supply of prime condominium projects in Bangkok in 2016

Prime condominium is refer to condominium with pricing more than 200000 THBSqm

Location map of areas for prime condominiums in Bangkok

Central Lumpini area Prime Sukhumvit area

Riverside-Rama III area

Sathorn-Silom area

Source Property Insight news Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 196

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

Developer had shifted their focus to prime condominium due to limited supply and had demand from both domestic and foreign

Source Property Today news Bangkokbiz News newspaper Nation newspaper

Supplybull Luxury condominium segment accounted for less than 5 of the total Bangkok condominium supply bull In 2016 the market showed strong growth in supply by 246 increasing especially within the Prime Sukhumvit area bull Developers focused more on prime condominiums since there was purchasing power and land price in downtown area

was too high to develop middle level projects

Demand

bull There was demand with 645 take-up rate with decreasing growth rate bull Buyers in this segment did not rely on home loans and had purchasing power bull There were both domestic and foreign demand Thai buyers accounted for about 85 The rest was the foreign buyers

mostly people from Hong Kong Singapore and Taiwan who have business in Thailandbull Around 48 bought a unit for self-occupancy 36 bought to generate long-term rental income and 16 were the

short-term speculatorsbull Buyers are likely to be more selective

Price bull Price has been increased 47 in average from 2015 The highest record of asking price is THB 720000 sqm by 98 Wireless It is expected that price levels will remain high and may rise due to the land price appreciation

Challenge bull Limited of supply of land for development and high land-acquisition costbull Anticipate customerrsquos needs and deliver superior customer value

Key success factors

bull Accessibility factors convenient transportation both by car and public transportbull Living factors close to shopping malls recreation education health care and business areabull Mood amp livable factors location attributes unique ambience architecture and premium amenities are also represent

the excusive lifestyle and preferences of the target group Brand affiliation was applied as value creation for projectsbull Cost factors competitive price with high quality

Opportunity bull Condominium ownership law for foreigners 49 of total units can be occupied by foreign person

Prime condominium

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 197

Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies

There is no difference between Thai and joint venture projects in terms of price and building except one project differentiating by applying Japanese unique theme

List of Japanese companies conducting joint venture with Thai companies

Price range (THBSqm)

lt 70000 70000 -200000

gt 200000

Floo

r lev

els

gt 30

flo

ors

10 -

29flo

ors

lt 10

flo

ors

Include only new launched condominium projects in 2016-2017

Japan-Thailand joint venture projects positioning

Japanese companies Thai companies of joint venture projects

Mitsui Fudosan (Asia) Pte Ltd

Ananda Development PLC 12

Mitsubishi Estate Co Ltd AP (Thailand) PLC 8

Nomura Real Estate Development Co Ltd Origin Property PLC 3

Hankyu Realty Co Ltd Sena Development PLC 2

Shinwa Real Estate Co Ltd Woraluk Property PLC 1

Tokyu Corporation Sansiri PLC 1

Color denotes the location

1500 units 500 units

Size of circle denotes the number of units

Source NRI analysis

Suburban area with mass rapid transit accessMidtown area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 198

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 199

Hotel market trend

Number of international tourists has been increasing every year except 2014 which had politic issue and coup drsquoetat

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Malaysia Japan Korea Russia Othercoup detat

CAGR 95

Number of international tourists visiting Thailand

In 2015 Chinese tourist is around 266 which increased around 4 times in 10 years following by Malaysian 115 and Japanese 46

Thousand persons

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 200

Hotel market trend

From 2012 trend of total length of stay has been decreasing due to increasing of tourists from East Asia

95 90 91 96 100 99 98 95

59 57 59 64 68 68 67 70

158142 145

156165 165 164 169

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total EastAsia Europe

Average length of stay of international tourists

In average tourists from East Asia stay around 7 days while European tourists stay around 17 days

Days

Average length of stay of East Asia tourists in 2015

Country of resident Average length of stay (days)

China 81

Japan 80

Korea 77

Taiwan 76

Hong Kong 65

ASEAN 56

Others 72

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 201

Hotel market trend

Japanese tourist spend more on accommodation but Chinese tourist spend money more on others such as souvenir

21013

5109

9985

15273

27229

5630

10924

15884

17933

5013

10621

18330

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Others

Transportation

FoodBeverage

Accomodation

Japan China Total

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports National Statistical Office

Average expenditure per day of Total Chinese and Japanese tourists by purpose in 2015 Average expenditure of international tourists per person per day in 2008-2015

THB

THB

4520543525 44246 44708

48262

50972

54975

59666

4521143970 44171 44724

4725049207

48876

51897

4142340112 40787

41871

43928

4616548089

51379

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Japan Total

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 202

Hotel market trend

Number of hotel room is increasing and occupancy rate also increasing with CAGR (2009-2015) around 99 In Bangkok the new supply mainly in Sukhumvit Rd

Source National Statistical Office

The number of hotel rooms and occupancy rate nationwide in 2009-2015

366455

531 528 540 551

651

368395

438487

563 581

651

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Room Occupancy Rate

Thousand units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 203

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 204

1719 17192033

2567

3271314

533

705

315

1630 1630 1813 2015

2572

183202

557

208

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Existing supply New supply Existing demand New demand

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand Sqm

94838918

7852 7862 7750

Occupancy rate

Logistics Property Market

Market value has increased to be about THB 68 billion in 2015 with CAGR (2011-2015) 202 in supply and 143 in demand

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Warehouse supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 205

Logistics Property Market

The movement at ports is rising indicating an increase of demand for logistics property service

Source Ministry of Commerce Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Number of containers passing through Bangkok and Laem Chabang port in 2012-2016

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Bangkok Port - Inbound Laem Chabang Port - Inbound

Bangkok Port - Outbound Laem Chabang Port - Outbound

Thousand TEU

Remark TEU ndash Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit Container

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CAGR 45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 206

Logistics Property Market

The positive factor for the future demand of warehouse service is growing logistic industry supported by E-commerce market and governmentrsquos projects

Source Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Segment( as of 2021f)

Government(1833)

CAGR 184Retail

(2333)CAGR 187

Businesses(6001)

CAGR 201

THB trillions

12 14 16 19 2227

3605

0506

0709

1

14

0405

0506

07

09

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

E-commerce market value in 2015-2021f List of infrastructure development projects in 2015-2022

Infrastructure projects Year

Airport Development of U Tapao airport to be aviation hub

2017-2021

Port Development of 6 ports in the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea

2015-2022

Railway Railway Standard Gauge Thailand-ASEAN-China

2015-2022

Dual-track railway (Laem Chabang port Map Ta Phut port)

2017-2021

High-speed train connecting 3 airports (Suvannabhumi Don Muaeng U Tapao)

2017-2021

Road 12 Motorway connecting between regions 2015-2022

Motorway (Bangkok-ChonburiPattaya-Map Ta Phut)

2017-2021

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 207

Logistics Property Market

Among 3 keys logistics areas Bangkok-Samutprakan has the highest supply since it is the area of airports and industrial estates and it also locates near Bangkok

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Supply share by key logistics locations

Pathumthani-Ayutthaya

Bangkok-Samutprakan

Eastern Seaboard

453

398

144

04

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard

Pathumthani-Ayuttaya Others

Map of Thailand key logistics locations

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 208

Logistics Property Market

Price competition occurred in Eastern Seaboard area since there was a rise in supply resulting from forecasted demand from Eastern Economic Corridor project

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Monthly warehouse rental rates by key logistics locations in 2011-2015

156157

161 161 161

152 152153

150 149147 148

150151 151

155 155

158157 157

140

145

150

155

160

165

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard Pathumthani-Ayutthaya Market rate

THBSqm

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 209

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 210

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 211

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population Growth

India is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption

Source Population Reference Bureau 2017 Datasheet USA

Indiarsquos Position in Population Growth Indiarsquos Population Structure by Age

China18

India18

USA4

Indonesia4

Brazil3

Rest53

2017 (August)

India17

China14

Nigeria4

USA4Indonesia

4

Rest57

2050F

World Population (mid-2017) 7536 mn World Population (2050F) 9683 mn

-100-050

mdash050100150200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

lation

grow

th ra

te (

)

Time (years)

India China Russia Brazil Korea Japan USA UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Percentage of population

Age (

in ye

ars)

YearMedian age (years) Dependability ratio ()Working age population ()

Most favorable period for development

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 212

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid Urbanization

India is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing

Urbanization Trends Major Urban Centers

29 33 38 43 4861

74 81

7681

8588

9092

88 81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Percentage of total population

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(00rsquo

s m

illio

n)

TimeUrban Rural Urban population as of total

Past Trend Projected Future Trend

Source 1 World Urbanization Prospects The 2014 Revision UN Population Division

2

1

6

3

7

5

4

7 Major Urban Centres (Tier 1 cities)

Non-Major Urban Centres (Tier 2 cities)

Source NRI analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 213

904 908 911 914 91996

9289

8681

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Constructionothers

Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of Economy

Although the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years

Contribution of Construction Sector to Countryrsquos GVA (Gross Value Add) at factor cost (at current prices)

As demographic pressure grows need to sustain economic growth will drive investments in the construction sector

Base year 2011-12Values INR trillion

81192

10361148

1246

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 214

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure

GDP per capita at current prices

Source IMF World Economic Outlook April 2017

The improving economic condition of the society will increase the demand for better quality infrastructure especially housing

Average Household Savings per annum

Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E2015E2016E 2019

US$

Time (years)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015IN

R (In

Tho

usan

ds)

Urban Rural Overall

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 215

Note Middle class defined as those living in households with daily per capita income between US$10-100 at 2005 US$ PPP terms

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world

Structure of Population in March 2015 by Income Top 10 Countries in Middle Class Consumption

HHI Household Income per annumHHI brackets Rich (above Rs 073mn) High middle income (Rs 073-020mn) Middle income (Rs 02-01mn) Lower Income and Poor (below Rs 01mn)Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid Data Retrieved 09th Sep 2016 Source Brookings Institution OECD Working Paper no-285 2010

RANK 2009 2020 2030

1 US 44 CHINA 45 INDIA 128

2 JAPAN 18 US 43 CHINA 100

3 GERMANY 12 INDIA 37 US 40

4 FRANCE 09 JAPAN 22 INDONESIA 25

5 UK 09 GERMANY 14 JAPAN 23

6 RUSSIA 09 RUSSIA 12 RUSSIA 14

7 CHINA 07 FRANCE 11 GERMANY 13

8 ITALY 07 INDONESIA 10 MEXICO 12

9 MEXICO 07 MEXICO 10 BRAZIL 12

10 BRAZIL 06 UK 10 FRANCE 11

WORLD 21 WORLD 35 WORLD 55

1304

58

29

87

RICHAverage HHI Rs114mn+14 over 2015

HIGH MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI Rs 033mnNo Change

MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI 015 mn+7 over 2015

LOWER INCOME ampPOORAverage HHI 075mn+7 over 2015

Indiarsquos middle class population would greatly drive demand in the construction sector

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 216

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 217

Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and Growth

The construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure

Sector contribution to Gross Value Added 2015-16 Real-estate market size and growth-rate

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017) Source IBEF India Julrsquo17

Total GVA value at current prices (Base year 2011-12) INR 1246 trillion

Note Real-estate market includes ownership of residential commercial and industrial dwellings and related business services

Agriculture forestry and

fishing17

Mining and quarrying

2

Manufacturing17

Electricity gas water supply amp

other utility services

3

Construction8

Trade repair hotels and restaurants

11

Transport storage

communication amp services hellip

Financial services

6

Real estate ownership of

dwelling amp professional

services15

Public administration and defence

6

Other services8

50 53 56 67 121 94 126 180

853

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2020E 2028E

US$

(bill

ion)

Time (years)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 218

Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players Performance

The real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes

Source Capital IQ amp NRI Analysis

List of Prominent Real Estate Developers (Listed Players only)

Developer Name Revenue USD mn (FY17)

FocusedMarket

Asset ClassResidential Retail Office Hospitality Industrial

DLF Ltd 1269 North India

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd

737 Bengaluru

Godrej Properties Ltd 244 West India

Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd

358 Metro Cities

Unitech Ltd 267 North India

Sobha Ltd 344 South India

The Phoneix Mills Ltd 282 West amp South

Omaxe Limited 251 North India

Brigade Enterprises Ltd 312 South India

Oberoi Realty Ltd 172 West India

HDIL 112 Mumbai

Mahindra Lifespace Developers

118 West amp South

Ashiana Housing Ltd 56 North India

Nesco Ltd 55 Mumbai

Nirlon Ltd 37 Mumbai

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 219

Financing Developments ndash Project Financing Options

Private lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed

Financing options by developers preference Recently Introduced Financing Options

PE funds

NBFC Lending

Private Lending

Bank Lending

FCCB

QIP

AIF

IPO

bull NBFC Non-banking Financial Companybull PE Private Equitybull IPO Initial Public Offeringbull ECB External Commercial Borrowing

bull QIP Qualified Institutional Placementbull FCCB Foreign currency bondsbull REMF Real Estate Mutual Fundbull AIF Alternative Investment Fundbull REIT Real Estate Investment Trustbull InvIT Infrastructure Investment Trust

Preference (high to low)

REMF

REIT

ECB

InvIT

Option Brief Description Merit

AIF bull Diversified portfolio of funds that invest in real estate infra and other priority sector projects

bull Long-term money can be invested in unlisted companies

bull Easy access of money from foreign investors

REIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of real estate assets on behalf of investors

bull Will create exit opportunities for developers and financial investors

bull Infuse transparency and liquidity in the market

InvIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of income generating infrastructure projects

bull Will create liquidity for private infrastructure players

bull Will lower debt exposure and unlocktied up capital of developers

Source NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 220

Financing Developments Trends in REITs

REITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

Reg

ulat

ory

Inve

stor

s

Regulation Introducedbull lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts

Regulations 2014rsquo introduced

Taxation Relaxedbull Dividend distribution tax on REITs

abolished

Operating Conditions Relaxedbull Limit on maximum number of sponsors

raised to fivebull Limit on investment in under-construction

projects raised to 20bull Foreign fund managers allowed to relocate

to India as fund manager

Investments by Banks Allowedbull Indian Central Bank (RBI) allowed

Indian banks to invest in REITs within their umbrella limit of 20 of their Net-Owned Funds

bull This umbrella limit of 20 includes bankrsquos investments in equity-linked mutual funds venture capital funds and stocks

Investments by Mutual Fundsbull Mutual funds allowed to invest up to

5 of their NAV in a single REIT with maximum REIT exposure restricted at 10 of NAV

bull GIC CPPIB Temasek ADIA in talks with IndoSpace for launching ~USD2 bn logistics REIT

bull Blackstone to launch ~USD06 bn office REIT with Embassy Group

bull DLF plans to launch office REIT by mid-2018

bull Blackstone to launch second office REIT with Panchshil Realty

bull Blackstone may consider listing its retail assets under REIT in future

bull Post approval by RBI mutual fund houses are altering their schemes to allow investments in to REITs and InvITs- DSP Blackrock MF altered two

schemes- Birla Sun Life MF altered 12

schemes- ICICI Prudential MF altered three

schemes

bull RMZ Corp (backed by Qatar Investment Authority) is looking to launch REIT by end-2017

bull K Raheja Corp is consolidating its office assets and may be considering launching an office REIT

bull Even though REIT Regulations were introduced in 2014 no real estate developer or investor had shown interest in the initial two years

bull Regulatory points such as dividend distribution tax and certain operating conditions made India REIT listings unattractive for investors

Investments by Insurance Cosbull Insurance companies allowed to

invest up to 3 of their funds in REITs with maximum holding in a single REIT restricted to 5

Source Reserve Bank of India Press Articles NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 221

Financing Developments Trends in Domestic Investments

Domestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Based on data till June 2017

563

23852078

1011

PE investments indicate deals by India-dedicated funds

6753

67

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 15x of 1Q16

2014 2015 2016 2017

Numb

er an

d Valu

e of D

eals

Key D

eals

Ann

ounc

emen

ts

bull Tata Capital ndash Shriram Properties USD80 mn

bull Peninsula Brookfield (Domestic fund) ndash Ansal API USD50 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Nirmal Lifestyle USD50mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndash Supertech USD45 mn

bull Fund raising- Kotak Realty USD400 mn- HDFC USD 250 mn

bull Indostar Capital ndash Total Environment Building Systems USD137 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Omkar Realtors and Developers USD200 mn

bull Piramal Enterprises ndashOzone Group USD96 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Lodha Group USD86 mn

bull Fund raising- HDFC Property USD550 mn- Arthveda USD250 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Lodha Group USD347 mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndashM3M India USD187 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Adarsh Developers USD110 mn

bull Altico Capital ndash Vatika Group USD103 mn

bull Fund raising- Rising StraitsUSD1000 mn- HDFC Venture USD400 mn- ASK Group USD299 mn

bull HDFC Venture Edelweiss Capital Altico Capital ndash Adarsh Developers USD144 mn for land acquisition and starting construction on five residential projects

bull Piramal Fund ndash ASF Group USD85 mn for IT SEZbull Piramal Fund ndash Wadhwa Group USD65 mn for office assetsbull Altico Capital ndash Sheth Group USD56 mn for residential project developmentbull Edelweiss Capital ndash Parinee Realty USD51 mn for under-construction luxury

residential projectbull Fund raising

- SMC Capital and REPL (EPC Developer) USD75 mn ndash SMC IM Capital- Arthveda USD250 mn ndash Affordable Low and Middle Income Fund- Indiabulls Housing Finance USD224 mn ndashDual Advantage Commercial Assets Fund- Reliance Capital USD150 mn ndash Reliance Rental Yield Fund

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 222

Financing Developments Trends in Foreign Investments

Foreign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics

2014 2015 2016 2017

Num

ber a

nd V

alue o

f Dea

lsKe

y Dea

ls A

nnou

ncem

ents

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashUnitech USD349 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash Nirlon USD225 mn

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Infinity Techno Park USD108 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndashParanjape Schemes Construction USD100 mn

bull Fund raising

- CPPIB (Canada)USD500 mn

- Hines (US) USD250 mn

bull Blackstone (US) ndash Alpha G Corp USD302 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF (Residential) USD300 mn

bull Warburg Pincus (US) ndashPiramal Realty USD284 mn

bull Goldman Sachs (US) ndash Nitesh Estates USD300 mn

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashHiranandani USD1000 mn

bull APG Asset Management (Netherlands) ndash Godrej Properties USD275 mn

bull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Phoenix Mills USD250 mn

bull Xander APG Asset Management ndash Virtuous Retail South Asia USD109 mn

bull Fund raising

- Xander USD400 mn

- Macquarie USD500 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF USD1800 mn for 40 stake in rental business across office and retail assets Talks began with 25 prospective buyer and narrowed down to Blackstone and GIC

bull Blackstone (US) ndash K Raheja Corp USD250 mn for 20 mn square feet office spacebull CDPQ (Canada) ndash Piramal Enterprises USD250 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Arshiya USD83 mn for six warehousesbull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Indospace Formed a USD1200 mn JV to acquire and develop

logistics facilities in India JV shall acquire 13 industrial and logistics projects totalling 14 mn square feet from current funds

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Firstspace Realty Formed a JV to invest USD500-600 mn to develop 15 mn square feet logistics and industrial facilities

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Shriram Group US$350 mn for SEZ looking for offices in Tier 1 cities

bull KKR (US) ndash Signature Global USD32 mn to develop affordable housing

Based on data till June 2017

965

30813164

1396

3422 26

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 11x of 1Q16

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 223

Financing Developments Debt position of leading developers

Debt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default

Source SampP Capital IQ NRI Analysis

799

284

333

408

472

493

518

614

1235

3548

Developer Debt Position

Developer Name Total Debt Dec16 (USD mn)

Increase FY16 to Dec16

Increase FY15 to FY16

Interest Coverage Ratio

-13

35

-11

24

-12

0

-52

-9

-2

-19

4

-12

38

-12

8

0

1

-13

3

21

108

091

267

251

149

017

084

163

146

292

Note Total 10 players mentioned above account for 78 of the total debt of listed real estate players in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 224

Financing Developments Debt ndash Trends in NPAs of Banking System

Due to project loan default by developers non-performing assets of banks are increasing Government has increased pace to resolve NPA issue Global PE investors seem keen to capitalize on this opportunistic

2012 - 2014 2015 2016 2017

Key

Eve

nts

NPA

Rat

io

bull Aug-Nov 2015 RBI conducted Asset Quality Review -AQR of bank books to ensure NPAs are correctly recognized

bull Large portion of stressed loans accumulated due to default by large Indian companies

bull Banks delayed the NPA bad loan recognition to show good performance

GNPA Ratio Forecast

Forecast as per RBIrsquos lsquoFinancial Stability Reportrsquo December 2016

NPAs in Indian banking system (across sectors) ndash Ratio of Gross Non-Performing Assets to Total Advances

Source Reserve Bank of India ndash lsquoFinancial Stability Report December 2016rsquo Bloomberg Reports Mar 2017 Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both NPA ratio

bull Global PE heavyweights formed JVs to focus on investments in Indian stressed assets

- Brookfield Apollo Global Bain Capital CPPIB CDPQ and JC Flower amp Co

bull Jan-17 RBI announced that is expects NPAs to increase furtherbull May-17 Banking Regulation Act 1949 amended to give RBI more powers

to resolve NPA issue RBI now has the power to give directions to banks in India to initiate insolvency process against debt defaulters

bull Jun-17 RBI identified 12 key defaulters (together account for 25 of the total NPAs) for resolution by initiating insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016)- The lenders to these defaulters shall finalise the resolution plan within six

months failing which insolvency proceedings shall be initiated

30 35 40 4676 91 98 101

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNPA to Total Advances

Sep-16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 225Source Bloomberg Reports Press Articles NRI Analysis

Global PE Firms in Indian Stressed Asset Market

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Global PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets

Glob

al PE

Firm

s Indian Partner

Jul 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Aug 16

Mar 16

Mar 16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 226Source VC Circle Press Articles

Recent Announcements (Illustrative List)

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Major global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets

Investor Target Seller Partner

Estimated DealValue (US$ mn)

Asset-Type

Office Residential Retail Others

Ascendas Arshiya Ltd 83 Six warehouses near Mumbai (Western India)

CPPIB IndoSpace 1200 JV to acquire 13 logistics assets (14 mn sqft)

GIC DLF - DCCDL 1800 GIC Singapore announced intention to purchase 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business DCCDL (DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd) (Across India)

KKR Signature Global

31 Affordable housing projects in Gurgaon(Northern India)

Xander Group AdarshDevelopers

20 For projects in Bengaluru area (Southern India)

- - Looking for assets in tier1 cities (Across India)

ShriramGroup

190 SEZ in Chennai (Southern India)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 227

DLF Promoters

DLF Ltd

DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd (DCCDL)

25

Assets and Projects

Assets and Projects

Public

CCPS sale to GIC

Office Retail Land Under-construction Other Assets

75

Proposed Transaction ndash Sale of CCPS held by Promoters of DLF

40 60

Case Study DLF - GIC

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Recently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion

Snapshot

Deal Summarybull Sale of promoter familyrsquos 40 stake in

DCCDLbull Deal value estimated to be US$18 billionbull Funds raised to be used for debt reductionbull Expected to be closed by September 2017

DCCDL Businessbull Assets Offices Retail Landbull Operational portfolio 268 mn sqftbull Development pipeline 67 mn sqft

Source Press Articles NRI Analysis

Cumulative Convertible Preference Shares

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 228

Regulatory Developments

Recent policy initiatives such as RE regulation act GST tax reform and strong steps for resolving bank NPAs are likely to make Indian market attractive for investors

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

RE

Reg

ulat

ion

Anti-

Cor

rupt

ion

Ban

king

Sy

stem

Econ

omic

bull SEBI introduced lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts Regulations 2014rsquo expected to bring greater accountability and reduce frauds and project delays

bull Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Bill 2015 introduced to prohibit illegal ownership transactions

bull Passed RERA -Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

bull RERA becomes effective however some states are yet to comply

bull Some states have diluted the provisions of the central act raising concerns

bull Interest Subsidy Scheme for housing loans for low and middle income groups to promote affordable housing in India

bull Real estate sector impacted by demonetization due to high volume of cash transactions

bull Goods and Service Tax (GST) to become effective from 1 July potentially simplifying the Indian indirect tax structure

bull Benami Act 2016 becomes effective

Source CBRE ndash lsquoIndia Marketflashrsquo Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Indian central bank (RBI) conducted asset quality review (AQR) of banks to ensure NPAs are recognized and provisioned

bull Government relaxed rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in real estate

bull Removed restrictive conditions of minimum area and capitalization amount

bull Demonetization high value currency notes to remove lsquoblack moneyrsquo

bull Government amended Indian banking regulation law to give RBI more powers to resolve NPA issue

bull RBI identified 12 large debt defaulters and instructed banks to push these accounts for insolvency

bull Income Tax department identified 400 transactions for conducting investigations under Benami Act

bull Real estate assets estimated to be worth ~USD80 mn was linked in the transactions

bull Multiple states notified the draft rules and passed the regulations to meet the deadline for compliance ndash 1 May 2017

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both GNPA and NNPA ratios

bull Draft law for indirect tax reform - Goods and Service Tax (GST) released in Public domain in June 2016

bull Constitutional amendment bill passed to facilitate implementation of GST

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 229

Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy Conditions

FDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years howeverrecent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector

Source Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Government of India June 2017

Summary of FDI policy in real estate sector FDI in Real-estate sector (USD bn)

Topic Brief Description

Investment Limit

bull 100 equity allowedbull Automatic authorization route no prior

government approval required

Key Restrictions

bull Construction of farm houses trading in transferable development rights (TDRs) and dealing in land or immovable property

bull Lock-in period of 3 years

Relaxations bull No lock-in period in case of hotels amp resorts hospitals SEZs educational institutions and old age homes

bull Transfer from one non-resident to another non-resident will not be subject to 3 year lock-in period

bull FDI permitted in completed projects for operations and management of townships malls shopping complexes and business centers

Key Implications

bull Will help revive projects that could not receive capital earlier

bull Foreign investors will be able to speed up its investment process

bull Encouraging environment for foreign developers

010

133

011

123

314

166

294

280

218

047

004

072

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2015-16

2014-15

2013-14Multiple corruption cases and political instability led to market downturn

2016-17

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 230

Regulatory Developments ndash Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

Real Estate bill 2016 is a major regulation recently passed by Indian Govt This bill is expected to bring greater accountability and reduce fraud and project delays in this sector

bull Rising population and income has led to an excessive demand for housing in India for the last two decades

bull As a result several firms jumped into the housing development business to capture a share of this booming market

bull In a race to capture demand developers started launching several projects simultaneously by investing consumersrsquo money into buying new land sites

bull Gradually developersrsquo intensity started affecting their cash flows and not just numbers but project sizes became larger

bull This resulted in poor quality construction severe delay in projects completion etc leading to consumersrsquo increasing dissatisfaction legal disputes etc

bull Hence the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Bill 2016 was introduced to re-instate transparency and discipline in the real estate sector and passed in March 2016

Source News Articles

Background Key Provisions of Bill

Boom in residential market

driving new entrants

Race to capture this demand

impacted quality

Lead to consumer dissatisfaction

Scopebull Both commercial and residential assetsbull Developers brokers as well as agentsbull Under-construction projects also covered

Institutional Framework

bull All states to notify guidelines and set up regulatory boards

Fund Utilizationbull 70 of the money collected from the buyers to me maintained i

n an escrow account and to be mandatorily used for the said project

Registrationbull All covered projects need to be registered by the developer withi

n three months of setupbull Online registration facility available

Penaltiesbull In case of violations

ndash Project registrations can be cancelledndash Developerrsquos promoter(s) can be imprisoned

Interest Payments

bull In case of delay in providing possession developer shall pay same interest rate to buyer as the buyer would pay to developer in case of delay in payment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 231

Regulatory Developments ndash Demonetization

Demonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017

Performance of Real-Estate Index

1 Mar 2017

2 Jan

2017

1 Sep 2016

1 Feb 2017

3 Apr

2017

1 Jul 2016

1 Jun

2016

2 May 2016

9314

2 May 2017

256

1 Nov 2016

3 Oct

2016

1 Dec 2016

198

8497

1 Aug 2016

1 Apr

2016

161

7713

Nifty RealtyNifty 50

True impact of demonetization may become clear by the end of 2017 with disclosure of performance by developers

The Nifty Realty (real estate index) has been moving in line with the broader Nifty 50 index

Indices Trading at all time high

Demonetization 8 Nov 2016 caused an immediate but short-term correction

Source wwwinvestingcom NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 232

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 233

Office space demand in 2017 is expected to remain similar to 2016 however developers are making new launches in anticipation of demand growth post 2017

Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndAb

sorp

tion

Vaca

ncy

and

Ren

tal R

ate

106

195186153

190176 205204226183199180

2H20161H2015 1H20161H2014 2H2014 2H2015

AbsorptionNew Supply(in million sq ft)

Over the past 3 years developerrsquos cautious approach and improved economic sentiments have kept demand for office space more than the new supplyhellip

hellip this demand surplus has led to positive movement in vacancy rates and rental rates across key office space markets in India

New Supplybull Estimated to be ~30 more than

in 2016 with Bengaluru and Hyderabad being the biggest contributors

Absorptionbull Estimated to witness modest

~2 increase with Bengaluru and Delhi-NCR being the key markets

Vacancy Ratesbull Expected to improve across key

cities with the exception of Delhi-NCR and Kolkata

Rental Ratesbull Expected to improve across all

key cities with Hyderabad Delhi-NCR and Kolkata outperforming rental growth of 2016

183 174 166 156 150 135

88 92 98103 111 119

177 189 185 167 186 197

73 75 78 81 86 94

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Vacancy Rate Delhi - NCR Rental Mumbai Rental Bengaluru Rental

(Rental rate in USD per square metre per month)

Source Colliers ndash lsquoIndia Office Market Overviewrsquo Jan 2017 Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai and Hyderabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Supertech Plans to invest ~USD115 mn to develop 25 mn square feet of retail and commercial space in Delhi-NCR region

bull Lodha Group Set-up a business vertical to focus on development of commercial assets (office retail and logistics) with a target of USD1 billion AUM by 2021

bull ldquoDemand for office space is expected to remain constant in 2017 hellip The expected take up from ITITeS companies may see reduced proportionhelliprdquo - Anshul Jain Country Head Cushman amp Wakefield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 234

Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal Size

The ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad

9

21

57 60

39

51

173

912

16

21

32 34

84

22

2342 42

26 24 23

5

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

ITITES BFSI Manufacturing Other Services

16000 19000

54000

39000

20000

30000

25300

29000

50000 51000

24500

20000

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

H1 2016 H1 2017

Source India real estate residential and office January - June 2017 Knight Frank

Sector-wise Transactions Split (H1 2017) Deal Size Analysis (Sq ft)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 235

Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costs

New Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list

Prime office space occupancy costs in US$ per sq ft per annum

Source June 2017 Global Prime Office Occupancy Costs CBRE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q12017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 236

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 237

Since 1Q 2017 residential segment has started displaying signs of recovery encouraging developers such as Lodha and Supertech to commit large investments

Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

A 2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndSa

les

Cap

ital V

alue

Source Liases Foras Real Estate Rating amp Research Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

71100

123112149160

107131138123136135

1H20161H2015 2H2015 2H20161H2014 2H2014

SalesNew Launches(in lsquo000 units)

To compensate for the low residential demand developers have reduced new launcheshellip

hellip this has helped reduce the unsold inventory level and supported capital value growth in key markets except Delhi-NCR

1Q 2017 - Sales

bull Most key city markets have saw declining sales on annual and half-yearly basis

bull However on a QoQ all cities saw sales improvement except Bengaluru where sales declined further by ~8 on QoQ basis

1Q 2017 ndash Price

bull Capital values have continue improve by 3-5 in most key markets

bull However cities like Delhi-NCR Kolkata and Pune have witnessed marginal price correction of around 1-3

709 716 731 747 695 693

1185 1252 1282 1284 1298 1324

717 735 746 767 771 791

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Delhi - NCR Price Mumbai Price Bengaluru Price

(Price in USD per square metre)

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata and Ahmedabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Lodha Group Plans to invest ~USD650 mn during 2017-18 to enhance deliveries of residential projects and launch 8-9 new projects

bull Supertech Shall invest ~USD380 mn to complete 15000 housing units in 2017-18 Also it plans to invest ~USD525-600 mn for launching affordable housing projects of 40000 units

bull Shapoorji Pallonji Plans to launch around 12 residential projects during Aprrsquo17 to Decrsquo18 Currently this is the biggest development plan in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 238

Residential Space ndash Supply Trends

Mumbai amp Bengaluru dominate the new residential apartment supply In 1Q17 most of the new launches have been in the economy segment (INR 2000-3000 per sqft) range across India

16 127

22

13 24

6

7

10

23

24

28

12

12

145

8

487

38 11

7

H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017

Perc

enta

ge s

har

e o

f new

lau

nches

Time (Yearly)

Delhi-NCR Mumbai Chennai Bengaluru

Kolkata Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune

Source Knight Frank

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

Price Category Wise Launches (INR Per square ft)

Less than 2000 2000 - 3000 3000 - 40004000 - 5000 5000 - 7500 7500 - 1000010000 - 15000 More than 15000

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

~106900 ~74000 ~67500

New Residential Apartment Supply Trends Composition of New Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 239

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 240

Retail Space ndash Overall Outlook

The retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes

201 204 238

278 321

368 425

518 490

600 672

1300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Time (Years)

Source Indian Brand Equity Foundation July 2017

92 8776

8 1324

2015 2019E 2020E

Unorganized Organized

bull Currently India has over 15 million Mom and Pop stores (unorganized retail)

bull From FY09 - FY13 organised retail in India has witnessed a CAGR of 19-20

Retail Market Size (US$ Billion) Type of Retail Market in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 241

Retail space demand has remained stagnant across major markets as a result of domestic consumption slump caused by demonetization but is expected to recover in this year

Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

New Supplybull 2017 is likely to see the highest mall space

becoming operational second to 2011 bull High levels of activity are expected 2017

onwards after a prolonged slowdown from 2014 that lasted through 2016

Absorptionbull The domestic consumption story was

impacted by demonetization in the last two months of 2016

bull Business is expected to normalize from 2Q17

Vacancy Ratesbull Indiarsquos overall vacancy rate is expected to

rise on account of new future supplybull The good malls have done well

Rental Ratesbull Rental rates across major retail markets

have remained stable for last 1 year on account of sluggish business activity

65 69

138

4157

13

36

-03

77

106

4542 40

107

45 51

16

33 27

56

79

42

00

50

100

150

200

250

-20

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Com

plet

ions

Ab

sorp

tion

(Mill

ion

Sq F

t)

New Completions Net Absorption Vacancy

Supply Net Absorption and Vacancy of Retail Space in India

441 438 438 438 376

398 397 397

194 213 213 213

2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017

Delhi - NCR Mumbai Bengaluru

(Rental rate in INR per square metre per month)

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 242

Retail Space ndash Mall

Vacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018

Construction Status of Future Supply of Retail Malls (2017- 2019)

48

18

52

68

11

47

3

31

22

2017F 2018F 2019FProposed Excavation Upto Plinth

Less than 50 Structure Readuy 50-100 Structure Ready

Ready for fit-outs

bull In terms of supply 2017 appears to be a strong year with over 77million sq ft of net supply expected to come on stream

bull The good malls are witnessing moderate to good pre-commitmentlevels ranging between 51-75 whereas the average malls areseeing poor pre-commitments of 0-50

bull Key retail completions lined up for 2017 include the RMZ Mall inBengaluru Seawoods Grand Central in Mumbai Palladium Mall inChennai ICC Mall in Pune DLF Mall and Wave Hub Mall in NCRDelhi

bull Of the total retail supply expected in 2017 48 is in the ready forfit-outs stage while 52 is in the 50-100 structure ready stage

bull By end 2017 NCR Delhi will have a Grade A retail stock of 274million sq ft while Mumbai is expected to have a stock of 191million sq ft for Grade A retail space

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 243

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 244

Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist Destination

The travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally

Source Ministry of Tourism India

Indiarsquos Position in the World By Industry Competitiveness 40th By Air transport

Infrastructure 32nd By Price competitiveness 10th

Source Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017

527 563 669 748

865 1045

1143 1290

1432 1614

13 14 14

18 19

18 20

23

23

25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f tou

rist a

rriv

als

(mill

ions

)

Time (Years)Domestic Foreign

Domestic and Foreign Tourist Arrivals Top cities in Foreign Tourist Arrivals by Air in July 2017

GKCNew Delhi

41

Mumbai21

Chennai9

Bengluru8

Kochi7

Others15

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 245

Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming Inventory

Although hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2015

Growth of Room Supply - India

249050

1122840

1464850

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2000-01 2014-15 2019-20

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Brand Inventory across Select Asia Pacific Cities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 246

Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory Trends

Delhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities

Hotel Rooms Statistics across major cities in 2016

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Hotel Class Definition in India (as per Industry)

Star Rating 5 Star 5 Star 4-5 Star 3-4 Star 2 Star or less

Room size gt=38 gt=38 35-38 25-35 lt25

Restaurant gt=3 gt=3 1-2 1-2 Only 1

BarLounge gt=2 1-2 Only 1 Only 1 1 or none

Swimming Pool Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Gym Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Spa Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Concierge Service

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Nomandate

Branded Toiletries

Yes Yes No No No

TrademarkedBeds

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

Interior Quality Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Num

ber o

f roo

ms

Existing Supply (Rooms) Proposed Supply (Rooms)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 247

Hospitality Space ndash Supply Trends

Average room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy

Average Room Rate (US$) across Major Cities

106

61

8879

107102

89

112

7478

94

118

63

950

590

830

730

96 96

81

109

72 75

87

113

61

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 248

Hospitality Space ndash Demand Trends

Occupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year

Occupancy Rate across Major Cities

615

539

581589

617 611

480

697

571

545

678

718

613

571

549

662

627

667 667

509

707

581

609

685

743

657

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 249

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 250

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 251

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 real GDP (constant 2010 USD) accounted for 16 USD trillion showing zero percent Y-o-Y growth compared to -3 in 2015

For 2018 and 2019 GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 17 (World Bank)

Russian economy recession is slowing down with real GDP growth of 0 in 2016

GDP(constant 2010 USD) GDP per capita (constant 2010 USD)

Source World Bank

-10-8-6-4-20246810

00020406081012141618

USD

trilli

on

GDP (constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

-10-8-6-4-20246810

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

USD

GDP per capita(constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 252

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 population of Russia accounted for 1443 million people with 107 million living in urban areas Over the part 10 year share of urban population has grown by 06

Almost 74 of the population live in urban areas and this share is slowly growing

-05

-04

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

milli

on p

eopl

e

Population(million people) Y-o-Y growth

Population million people

Source World Bank

730

732

734

736

738

740

742

Urban population share

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 253

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2015 consumer price index recorded 129 amid RUB depreciation However due to RUB exchange rate stabilization inflation slowed down in 2016 to 54

After significant growth in 2015 inflation was stabilized in 2016 to a manageable level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

RU

RU

SD

RURUSD exchange rate

Source World Bank

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Rosstat

CPI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 254

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 value of mortgage loans accounted increased to 14 RUB trillion (800 thousand loans) The government pursues to increase number of mortgage loans up to 1200 loans by 2020

The mortgage loan market enjoys a strong recovery after decline in 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

- 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(asof Nov)

Thou

sand

uni

ts

RU

B Bi

llion

Mortgage loans value(RUB billion)

Numbe of mortagge loans issued (thousand units)

116

118

12

122

124

126

128

13

132

134

136

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Central Bank of Russia

Mortgage rate Mortgage loans issued (volume and value)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 255

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 256

Residential Market

Russian government is looking to improve the living standards of its citizens and upgrade the quality of urban environment by several stimulation programs

The Moscow housing

renovation program

The Mortgage and rental housing

priority project

ldquoThe Moscow housing renovation programrdquo is aimed at resettlement and demolition of a dilapidated low-rise housing stock built in 1957-1968 and at the new construction in the liberated territory it was submitted on September 26 2017 by the mayor of Moscow Duration of 15-20 years Total financing of 400 RUB billion 6 ml people to be resettled Over 25 ml m2 of residential property to be resettled and demolished (5177 houses = ~10 of total

residential area of Moscow) Similar programs will be potentially extended to other regions of Russia

The main objective of the Mortgage and rental housing priority project is to improve the living conditions of Russian citizens by Ensuring high rates of housing commissioning (goal - commissioning of 88 ml m2 of residential

space in 2018 100 ml m2 of residential space in 2020) Demand stimulation (issuance of 1 ml mortgage loans in 2018 12 ml mortgage loans in 2020)

Basic approaches of achieving the goals of the housing conditions improvement are ensuring high rates of construction of high-quality comfortable and affordable housing by including

inefficiently used federal regional and municipal lands as well as financing the construction of infrastructure as part of integrated development projects

increasing the availability of mortgage loans and reduce financial risks by forming a liquid market for mortgage securities introducing electronic bonds and the worlds best practices for disclosing information

implementation of pilot projects of specialized rental housing by using collective investment mechanisms and developing proposals for the further development of the rental market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 257

Residential Market

Demand in primary housing market significantly increased while growth in secondary market remain modest

In 2016 the number of contracts in primary housing market (new houses) increased by 80 in comparison with 2015

Secondary housing market grew only by 86

Source Konti

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

thou

sand

con

tract

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

thou

sand

con

tract

s

Number of contracts in Moscow secondary housing market(~existing homes)

Number of contracts in Moscow primary housing market(~new homes)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 258

Residential Market

Supply of new houses in Moscow declined in 2016 due to low demand in the previous year

1971 2110

3050 31463342

3920

3385

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

sq

m

46543

33091

22825 23587

4255146352 46080

56171

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

units

Source Rosstat

Commissioned living space in Moscow Number of commissioned flats in Moscow

In 2016 constructed living space accounted for 3385 thousand sq m which is 14 lower as compared with 2015 Decline can be explained by the fact that in 2015 supply outweighed demand by far

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 259

Residential Market

In 4Q 2016 average price of new residential housing accounted for 155 thousand RUBsq m which is approx 15 lower as compared with the same period of the previous year

Average price in secondary housing market declined by 4 (1809 thousand RUB sq m)

Average price growth in both primary and secondary Moscow residential market remain negative

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

thou

sand

RU

Bsq

m

Source Rosstat

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

thou

sand

RU

B sq

m

Average price of primary housing in Moscow Average price of secondary housing in Moscow

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 260

Residential Market

Supply of new housing in 2016 and average price in Moscow very depending on administrative district

District Average price(RUB per sq m) as of Dec 2016

Supply share as of Dec 2016

1 Central Administrative District 250900 12

2 Northern Administrative District 166800 13

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 168100 12

4 Eastern Administrative District 200300 8

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 145400 9

6 Southern Administrative District 179000 11

7 South-Western Administrative District 173400 8

8 Western Administrative District 212900 12

9 North-Western Administrative District 238900 18

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 88100 1

Source Blackwood

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 261

Residential Market

Backup information population of Moscow

District Population people

1 Central Administrative District 768280

2 Northern Administrative District 1158528

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 1413739

4 Eastern Administrative District 1505801

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 1380668

6 Southern Administrative District 1774351

7 South-Western Administrative District 1426227

8 Western Administrative District 1362701

9 North-Western Administrative District 988423

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 237897

1118711282

11504

1177711857

1198012108

1219812330

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Population by district as of 2016Population of Moscow thousand people

Source Rosstat Source City Population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 262

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 263

Office Market

In 2016 construction of offices fell to 313 thousand sq m which is the lowest figure over the past decade Total stock of offices accounted for 17 thousand sq m

Construction of offices has shown negative growth since 2014

Source Colliers

Total stock in Moscow

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total area of office completions in Moscow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 264

Office Market

Demand has showed negative growth in Moscow office market since 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total take-up in Moscow thousand sq m

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Source Colliers

Vacancy rate

The annual transaction volume in Moscow accounted for 850000 sq m (115 decline ) Vacancy rate for A class offices fell to by nearly 7 while B class vacancy rate remained the same

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 265

Office Market

Backup information take-up structure in Moscow

24

16

109

9

5

5

4

332

1

9

Manufacturing

Professional services

Public

Retail

IT amp Telecoms

EnergyIndustrial

Pharmacy and life science

Banking Insurance ampInvestmentConstruction anddevelopmentAutomative

Media

Vehicles Transport ampLogisticsOther

Take-up structure by sector in 2015Take-up structure by type of deal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

rent sale

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 266

Office Market

Average rental rate in USD significantly declined in 2015 due to local currency devaluation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Average rental rate USD sq m per annum in Moscow

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 267

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 268

Retail Market

Backup information total stock in Moscow and Russia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Total stock in Moscow thousand sq m Total stock in Russia thousand sq m

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 269

Retail Market

In 2016 construction of shopping centers in Moscow fell by nearly 32 to 424 thousand sq m The decline in figures for the whole country accounted for 14

Construction of shopping center has been declining since 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Source Colliers

Completion (GLA) in Moscow thousand sq m Completion (GLA) in Russia thousand sq m

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 270

Retail Market

Despite current economic condition in 2015 number of brands entered the Moscow market still far outweighs number of brands that left

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

International brands left Moscow market

International brands enterd Moscow market

Number of international brands entered Moscow market units

Source Colliers

53

22

8

17

Fashion Children goods Catering Other

Structure of brands entering Moscow in 2015

In 2015 36 new international brands entered the Moscow market while 11 announced to leave

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 271

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 272

Hotel Market

Hotel supply has been staying at the nearly the same level since 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

hote

ls u

nits

room

s u

nits

Number of rooms Number of hotels

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

num

ber o

f hot

els

room

sun

its

Number of rooms Number of hotels

Source Rosstat

Supply of hotels in Moscow Supply of hotels in Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 273

Hotel Market

Number of overnight stays in hotels also has not faced significant changes

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source Rosstat

Number of stays in hotels Moscow Number of stays in hotels Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 274

Hotel Market

As of 2016 year nearly 15000 rooms are managed by international hotel operators in the Moscow market The reawakening of Russian and international hotel chains in 2016-2017 is based heavily on the forthcoming FIFA

World

The Moscow hotel market is dominated by optimistic moods - despite tough economic conditions hoteliers noted that demand has grown since 2015

Indicator 2015 2016

Total supply of hotels managed by international operators

52 58

Number of rooms managed by international hotel operators

13 723 14 942

Average price of a sold room (ADR) Rublesday 7 245 7 815

Yield per room (RevPAR) Rublesday 4 890 5 650

Occupancy rate 675 723

Tourist flow million people 171 175

22

18

15

14

7

6

6

48

AccorHotels

InterContinental HotelsGroupCarlson Rezidor HotelGroupMarriott International

Best Western

Starwood Hotels andResorts WorldwideHilton Worldwide

AZIMUT Hotels

Others

Source Colliers

Key indicators of Moscow hotel marketMajor international hotel operators in 2016 of numbers of rooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 275

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 276

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 277

1 Macro Economy

The United States of America can be divided into 4 regions

The 4 regions of the USA include Northeast Midwest South and West

Source) US Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

Northeast South Midwest West

New York Boston Dallas Houston Chicago DetroitLos Angeles

SeattleSan

Francisco

Population ndash Ppl(2016)

8537673 673184 1317929 2303482 2704958 672795 3976322 704352 870887

GDP ndash $M USD(2016)

1657457 422660 511606 478618 651222 252691 1001677 330409 470529

Northeast Midwest

WestSouth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 278

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

Cal

iforn

iaW

ashi

ngto

nA

rizo

naC

olo

rado

Ore

gon

Uta

hN

evad

aN

ew M

exic

oId

aho

Haw

aii

Mont

ana

Ala

ska

Wyo

min

gTex

asFlo

rida

Georg

iaN

ort

h C

arolin

aV

irgi

nia

Ten

ness

eeM

aryl

and

South

Car

olin

aA

laba

ma

Loui

sian

aKen

tuck

yO

klah

om

aM

issi

ssip

piA

rkan

sas

Wes

t V

irgi

nia

Del

awar

eD

istr

ict

of C

olu

mbi

aN

ew Y

ork

Pen

nsyl

vania

New

Jer

sey

Mas

sachu

sett

sC

onn

ect

icut

New

Ham

pshi

reM

aine

Rho

de Isl

and

Ver

mont

Illin

ois

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Mis

sour

iW

isco

nsin

Min

neso

taIo

wa

Kan

sas

Neb

rask

aSouth

Dak

ota

1 Macro Economy

The population of California is 392 million Texas 278 million Florida 206 million New York 197 million and Illinois 128 million

Regarding the state-wise population California is the most populous state followed by Texas Florida New York and Illinois

Source) USCensus Bureau

State-wise population (2016)

NortheastSouthWest Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 279

1 Macro Economy

Among the top 20 cities in terms of population 6 belong to Texas The 5 cities that had their annual growth rate more than 2 after 2010 are as follows

Austin Texas 254 Seattle Washington 241 Denver Colorado 234 Fort Worth Texas 222 Charlotte North Carolina 221

In the metropolitan cities the population of New York and Los Angeles exceeds 30 millionAmong the top 20 cities in terms of population the annual growth rate of 5 cities exceeds 2 after 2010

Population (Top 20 Cities 2016)

Source) US Census Bureau

07 08

00

1518

04

19

1216

12

25

11 13 14

07

22 2224 23

08

00051015202530

-

3000000

6000000

9000000

Population (left) CAGR from 2010 to 2016 (right)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 280

1 Macro Economy

The real GDP was increased by 88 from $156 trillion in Q3 2013 to $170 trillion in Q2 2017 The real estate business grew by 27 in the most recent quarter and became the main driver of economic growth

The US real GDP has been continuously growing for the past 4 years (except Q1 2014)

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

($ billion)

Trends of real GDP Trends of GDP growth rate

Billions of chained (2009) dollars ()

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 281

Regarding the state-wise real GDP California has the highest real GDP of $25 trillion followed by Texas and New York with approximately $15 trillion However the other states have their real GDP below $1 trillion

1 Macro Economy

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

State-wise real GDP (Top 20 states Q1 2017)

($ billion)

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Millions of chained (2009) dollars

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 282

1 Macro Economy

Especially the growth rate of southern states including Texas and New Mexico was relatively high

The real GDP of 43 states and the District of Columbia grew between 2015 and 2016

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP growth by states (2015 -2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 283

1 Macro Economy

The rate of unemployment is suddenly increased after collapsing the Dotcom bubble and the Lehman shock After October 2009 it turns to decrease

In August 2017 the unemployment rate is 44 and the number of unemployed is 71 million

The unemployment rate recorded in June 2017 was 43 which was the lowest in the past 20 years

Source) US Bureau of Labor Statistics

43

63

100

44

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Lehman shock

Dotcom bubble

collapse

Unemployment rate (1997 to 2007)

()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 284

Through blockchain technology all involved parties can have a copy of the original data record allowing near-real time data record access and updates safe from tampering

The US commercial real estate market has a particular interest in the following benefits Listing Management ndash To effectively manage real estate listing data of any property in the world Secure Data Exchange ndash To securely manage data of tenant owners etc Efficient Contracting ndash To speed up exchange of data contract etc

The US market has been slowly exploring blockchain technology for commercial real estate applications

Users Data Record

Blockchain in Real Estate Overview

Blockchain

Listing Management

Secure Data Exchange

Efficient Contracting

Blockchain

Blockchain

Blockchain

1 Macro Economy

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 285

Through smart contracts blockchain technology can revolutionize how commercial real estate market parties contract

1 Macro Economy

Smart Contract Timeline Overview

Smart contracts are applications to securely execute contractual terms between involved parties through blockchain technology

Tenant Landlord Tenant Tenant Landlord

bull Tenant and landlord sign smart contract to initiate lease agreement

bull Agreement includes rental value payment terms and party details

bull Smart contract will start to enforce payment terms thus initiating lease payments from tenant to landlord

bull Upon termination of lease contract contract returns the security deposit payment to the tenant after adjustments for damages

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Landlord

Pre-Lease During Lease Post-Lease

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 286

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 287

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The most recent commercial real estate price is far larger than the previous highest of 2007Although the price continued to increase after the Lehman shock it is at peak in 2016 second half

1269

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Trends of Commercial real estate price (Commercial Property Price Index)

Source) Green Street AdvisorsMainly the prime commercial properties (real estate) were targeted

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 288

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The total amount of transactions was increased in all sectors between 2014 and 2015In 2016 only the number of apartments was increased the other real estates were declined

116

130

89

51

36

153 151

90 78

50

159

143

76

59

36

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Apartments Office Retail Industrial Hotel

2014 2015 2016

($ bil)

Trends in Transaction amount of commercial real estates (including transactions equal to or more than 25 billion)

Source) Colliers International

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 289

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

00

10

20

30

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

米国10年国債利回り(左軸) 米国REIT価格指数(右軸)

2 Real Estate Investment Market

If the future interest rates will rise the REIT price would fall in the short term Then it will rise in the medium and long term

Trends in Cap rate of main sectors

Source) NAREIT Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

REIT price index has been calculated based on FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Total Index

20134-20138Yield on the government bonds +11 pointsREIT -13

20151-20156Yield on the government bonds +07 pointsREIT -11

20167-201611Yield on the government bonds +09 pointsREIT -12

Yield on 10-year government bonds (Left axis)

USArsquos REIT price index (Right axis)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 290

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 291

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Regarding the residential market of the USA houses which were built for sale purpose accounted for 50 custom houses accounted for 15 and rental apartments that have increasingly become common in recent years accounted for 30

Trends of Residential market structure in Japan

1 Existing housing stock data pertains to FY 20132 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor and field supervisor There are three types of construction methods 1) The landlord

takes the responsibility for partial construction and asks a local contractor for the remaining construction 2) The landlord gives the task of entire construction to a local contractor 3) The landlord undertakes the entire construction work(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the landlord When the landlords construct on their own partial work of construction is given to a local contractor)

3 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor The local contractor is hired as the field supervisor and landlord does not construct at all These also include houses used for rental purpose (example temporary house of a clergyman)(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the local contractor)

Unit 10000 houses Japan Unit 10000 houses US

Number of new housing starts

967 (100) Starts by Purpose 1174 (100)

Owner-occupied houses (custom houses)

292 (30)Owner built2 49 (4)

Contractor built3 116 (10)

Sale in lots 251 (26) Built for sale 607 (52)

Detached houses 134 (14)Single-familyUnits

579 (49)

Mansions 117 (12)Building with 2units or more

28 (2)

Houses on lease (including those received as allowance)

424 (44) Built for rent 402 (34)

Existing housing stock 169 (17) Used house sales 549 (468)

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 292

In 2016 rental housing constructions were less than the preceding year

The number of detached housing construction sharply declined after reaching its peak in 2005However after hitting its lowest level in 2011 the situation became improved In parallel rental housing construction has also been growing

Trends of New housing constructions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 unit Built for sale

1 unit Contractor-built

1 unit Owner-built

2+ units For sale

2+ unitsFor rent

(Thousands)

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 293

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Less than 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

1995 2005 2015

For 10 years after 2005 the rate of house-owners who are the 25-44 year-old people had significantly declined With the decrease of houses owned by the young generation the demand for rental houses rapidly increased

Age-wise housing acquisition rate

-5 points

-10points

-10 points

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 294

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

After the Lehman shock the southern and western regions started recovering and restored to their status as in the 1990s However the midwest and north-eastern regions remained the same

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

Trends of new housing constructions (Detached houses)

(Thousands)

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 295

-

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Texa

sFl

orid

aN

orth

Car

olin

aG

eorg

iaSo

uth

Car

olin

aTe

nnes

see

Virg

inia

Loui

sian

aAl

abam

aM

aryl

and

Okl

ahom

aKe

ntuc

kyAr

kans

asM

issi

ssip

piD

elaw

are

Wes

t Virg

inia

Dis

trict

of C

olum

bia

Cal

iforn

iaAr

izon

aW

ashi

ngto

nC

olor

ado

Uta

hN

evad

aO

rego

nId

aho

New

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Haw

aii

Wyo

min

gAl

aska

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Min

neso

taM

isso

uri

Wis

cons

inIll

inoi

sIo

wa

Kans

asN

ebra

ska

Sout

h D

akot

aN

orth

Dak

ota

Penn

sylv

ania

New

Yor

kN

ew J

erse

yM

assa

chus

etts

Mai

neN

ew H

amps

hire

Con

nect

icut

Verm

ont

Rho

de Is

land

Texas and Florida in the southern region stood out with the maximum number of approvals for the construction of detached houses In looking at the other regions California had more than 50000 approvals but the rest had 30000 or less

NortheastSouth West Midwest

State-wise number of Approvals for new housing constructions (Detached houses 2016)

(Number of approvals)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 296

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

San Jose

San Francisco

Honolulu

San Diego

Los Angeles

Houston

Dallas

Atlanta

Phoenix

Washington

Seattle

New YorkDenver

BostonPortland

In the metropolitan areas in south such as Texas have a great number of new housing constructions while cities with high residential prices are concentrated in California

Main southern cities

Main cities in California

Other mature cities in the entire USA

City-wise Residential prices and Approvals for new housing constructions (2016)

Prices of detached houses (in thousand dollars)

Num

ber o

f appro

vals for d

etac

hed h

ouse

starts

Source US Census Bureau National Association of Realtors

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 297

The number of rental housing constructions was suddenly increasing after 2009 but the number constructions was decreasing after 2015 except for the western region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

(Thousands)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 298Source) US Census Bureau

The calculation has been done based on the running average of data for all the four quarters

Trends in percentage of owner-occupied houses Trends in Percentage of vacant houses

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

The rate of owned houses and vacant houses continued to decrease together but this fall came to the end in 2016

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 20170 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 299

There is no any significant change in the trends of most recent rents

Trends of region-wise rent (Median)

($)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

西部

北東部

南部

中西部

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

West

Northeast

South

Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 300

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

Source US Census Bureau

Number of new housing starts

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The Seattle metropolitan area includes 3 counties ndash Snohomish King and Pierce

After the Lehman shock many large-scale apartments were constructed in the Seattle metropolitan area (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA)

(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 301

The average price of detached houses is about $500000 With land prices the cost of construction is also sharply risen

Year Land HomeValue

Structure Cost Land Value

2000 $278695 $112257 $166438 5972001 $292826 $119354 $173471 5922002 $303519 $121947 $181572 5982003 $323773 $125821 $197952 6112004 $359056 $141585 $217471 6062005 $424912 $152219 $272692 6422006 $479951 $163874 $316077 6592007 $488499 $172756 $315744 6462008 $431855 $186623 $245231 5682009 $387317 $191347 $195970 5062010 $368625 $194053 $174572 4742011 $346949 $204023 $142926 4122012 $372227 $207086 $165142 4442013 $419730 $215593 $204137 4862014 $446107 $233255 $212852 4772015 $488054 $236426 $251628 516

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Q4 data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 302

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

Regarding the Seattlersquos local residential market more than 50 of the houses are apartments In the suburbs the number of detached houses and apartments are almost same

Source US Census Bureau

Figure showing the Seattle city and the surrounding areasNumber of approvals for housing starts in Areas surrounding

the Seattle city (King County) (2016)

Other areas refer to the total number of cities in the King Country

SeattleBellevue

Redmond

Other area

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Other areas

Redmond

Bellevue

Seattle

1-unit 2-units and up (House)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 303

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The vacancy rate of rental houses is rapidly decreasing which is less than 3 in the all metropolitan areas In the post-2014 the standard rent of Seattle was significantly higher than the average rent of metropolitan areas

Trends of Vacancy rate Trends of Rent (Median)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

$400

$600

$800

$1000

$1200

$1400

$1600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

0~

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 304

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The number of new housing constructions (including both detached houses and apartments) in the Dallas metropolitan area (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA) showed recovery with more than 25000 constructions

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

0

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 305

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The average price of detached houses is $250000The cost of construction is dramatically rising accounting for 70 of the home value

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Year Land ShareHome Value Structure

Cost Land Value

2000 $173678 $92517 $81161 467

2001 $182559 $98406 $84154 461

2002 $186525 $100648 $85877 460

2003 $187431 $104288 $83143 444

2004 $190797 $116052 $74745 392

2005 $199596 $124130 $75466 378

2006 $202951 $132730 $70221 346

2007 $200595 $139192 $61403 306

2008 $193454 $150854 $42599 220

2009 $196089 $150857 $45232 231

2010 $189138 $153876 $35263 186

2011 $187611 $161438 $26173 140

2012 $198238 $163952 $34286 173

2013 $218014 $169417 $48597 223

2014 $234604 $182252 $52352 223

2015 $256583 $236426 $72860 284

Q4 data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 306

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the cities such as Dallas Fort Worth Frisco and McKinney a large number of detached houses and apartments are constructed In particular the surrounding areas of Dallas have mainly apartments whereas the northern region mainly has detached houses

Main cities in the suburbs of Dallas Number of approvals for housing starts in main cities (2016)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Detached houses

+ Apartments

FortWorth

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Celina

Prosper

Little Elm

Irving

Farmers Branch

Carrollton

Garland

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Farmers Branch

Garland

Carrollton

Irving

Prosper town

Celina

Little Elm

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Fort Worth

1-unit 2-units and up

Mainly detached houses

Mainly apartments

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 307

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the northern part of Dallas there are successive expansions and relocations of offices of large companies The increase in employment depends on the increase in population

Large-scale offices recently relocated to areas surrounding the Fresco city

Source Plano Economic Development

Company name ServiceYear of

completionNumber of employees

Capital One Finance Headquarter 2017 5500

JP Morgan Chase amp CoUnder

construction6000

NTT DataNorth America

HQ2017 2250

West Plano

submarket

Frisco

Location of each city

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 308

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 309

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

4 Office market

Since the 2008 global financial crisis US employment has been recovering quickly

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

US unemployment rate is lower than it had been a decade ago before the financial crisis consequently leading to an increase in those in the US workforce

US Unemployment Rate US Employees

Rate ()

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

Employees(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 310

4 Office market

The US has also witnessed a rise in the number of new established companies thus presenting new opportunities for office real estate market

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

Each year the number of established companies less than 1 year old or newly established companies has been rising since the financial crisis

Corporate Establishments Less than 1 Year Old

400

500

600

700

800

No of Established Co(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 311

Among New York Houston Chicago and San Francisco Houston is the only city headed downwards in GDP

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

4 Office market

Certain cities in the US have shown comparably noticeable traits of market opportunities

New York

Houston

Chicago

San Francisco

GDP ndash New York Houston Chicago San Francisco

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP($B USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 312

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 313

5 Hotel market

With the increasing number of trips the US hotel industry will soon face the need for more lodging space

Source) US Travel Association

The number of people traveling is increasing eventually requiring more accommodation spaces The number of domestic travels within the US is far higher than the number of international travels to the US

Travels within US (Domestic) Travels to US (International)

170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 314

By class segmentations the higher-end hotels have been constructing more hotel spaces to respond to the rising demands

US hotel classes are segmented by primarily according to average room rates In a descending order the segmentation follows Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale

Economy Unaffiliated hotels are hotels not affiliated with a member organization thus varying widely in size quality and cost

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Feb 2017) Under Construction (Feb 2017)

Luxury

Upper Upscale

Upscale

Midscale

Unaffiliated

Economy

Upper Midscale

236

1167

1383

1795

937

1524

2958

437

1412

31933254

432121

1152

Pric

e

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 315

By cities New York has been constructing double triple the amount of hotels compared to other metropolitan areas

Although Las Vegas leads in the total number of existing hotels New York has been constructing more hotel spaces

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Mar 2017) Under Construction (Mar 2017)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 316

5 Hotel market

Even by some of the more well-known tourist destination cities the RevPAR is predicted to continue to increase

Source) HVS Global Hospitality Services

Like the nationwide trend individual cities have also experienced slow growth in terms of RevPAR since the 2008 global financial crisis

New York is notably much higher in terms of RevPAR in comparison to other metropolitan cities

US Hotels ndash RevPAR by City

New York NY

Los Angeles CA

Washington DC

Las Vegas NV

Chicago IL

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rev ($ USD)

Estimated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 317

5 Hotel market

While Airbnb does pose as an lodging alternative to hotels the performance of one market does not impact the other

Source) Boston University

Boston University conducted research on the relationship between Airbnb and hotels in Boston Though Airbnb experienced increases in occupancy growth and RevPAR the gains did not affect the Boston hotelsrsquo

performance

Hotels

Airbnb

Boston ndash Occupancy amp RevPAR (2015-2016)

Occupancy Rate ()

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

Rev ($ USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

中国

Yinghua BAI PhDNRI Shanghai Division Manager

Expertise urban planning regional development and planning of real estate business strategy

Wen WANGNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise regional development industrial strategy and planning of real estate business strategy

Siwei LIUNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise real estate business strategy China marketingbusiness strategy of Japanese companies

Fang QINRI Shanghai Asst Consultant

Expertise regional development planning of real estate business strategy

韓国

JaRyong CHOINRI Seoul Sr Exec Director

Expertise real estate and retail business strategy urban and regional development investment planning

KangTae PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

SungWoo PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

台湾

Michihiro KONAGAINRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise infrastructure development and business strategy planning in infrastructure market

Chi han CHIANGNRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise policy and development planning PPP advisory in land development domain

Jen-hua LiuNRI Taiwan Asst Consultant

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

シンガポール

Toshiro TAKEKOSHINRI Singapore Department Head

Expertise infrastructure (real estate energy) business management and business strategies cross border MampA

Yen-Fen TEOHNRI Singapore Sr Consultant

Sana TAMURANRI Singapore Consultant

Ceputra SALIMNRI Singapore Assoc Consultant

タイ

Yuji KatoNRI Thailand Gr Manager

Expertise infrastructure business (real estate energy) finance

Panitha TeerasorakaiNRI Thailand Consultant

Orachorn SupunsaleekhulNRI Thailand Business Analyst

インド

Arpit MATHURNRI India Sr Consultant

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy and alliances real estate development support etc

Prashant AGGARWALNRI India Consultant

Expertise MampA transaction advisory business strategy financial modelling and business planning etc

Junmyong RANRI India Group Manager

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy ASEAN business strategy investment advisory etc

SungYun (Sonny) KIMNRI India President

Expertise Real estate investment market incl behavioral investment securitization financial crisis etc

Hikojiro ISOZAKINRI Global Knowledge Centre Head

Expertise Automotive and Infrastructure sector advisory investment strategy etc

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

ロシア

Andrei RODIONOVMoscow Br Div Director

Expertise business strategy global marketing MampA

Alexander KHARKOVMoscow Br Consultant

Expertise marketing in Russia business strategy economic regulation

アメリカ

Keitaro HiroseNRI Consultant

Expertise Business Strategy in Real estate and Infrastructure industry

Joshua ChoiNRI America Sr Research Analyst

Expertise Business Strategy IoT Emerging Technology

Makiko TanakaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy Fintech AI

Sherry KitajimaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy AI

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

Contact

Inquiry about this report generally or our solutions for real estate industry[Mail] real-estate-reportnricojp [Language] Japanese English

Inquiry about contents of each sectionChina [Mail] real-estate-report-CHNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Original) EnglishKorea [Mail] real-estate-report-KORnricojp [Language] Japanese Korean EnglishTaiwan [Mail] real-estate-report-TWNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Simplified) EnglishSingapore [Mail] real-estate-report-SGPnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishThailand [Mail] real-estate-report-THAnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishIndia [Mail] real-estate-report-INDnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishRussia [Mail] real-estate-report-RUSnricojp [Language] English RussianUSA [Mail] real-estate-report-USAnricojp [Language] Japanese English

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  • The Global Real Estate Market 2017
  • スライド番号 2
  • スライド番号 3
  • スライド番号 4
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • スライド番号 18
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Land Market in China
  • スライド番号 25
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Residential Market in China
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • House supply policy of China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Prospects of Chinas residential market
  • スライド番号 36
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • スライド番号 45
  • Prospects of commercial real estate market in China
  • スライド番号 47
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • スライド番号 51
  • スライド番号 52
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • スライド番号 60
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • スライド番号 68
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • スライド番号 76
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • スライド番号 82
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • スライド番号 89
  • スライド番号 90
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • スライド番号 98
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • スライド番号 104
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • スライド番号 113
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • スライド番号 117
  • (Reference)
  • スライド番号 119
  • Population Trend
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks
  • スライド番号 128
  • Office market- Geographic Area
  • Office market- Stock and Vacancy
  • Office market- Price and Rental Index
  • Office market- Future Supply
  • Office market- Cap rate
  • スライド番号 134
  • Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate
  • Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property
  • Residential market ndashFuture Supply
  • Residential market-Cap Rate
  • スライド番号 142
  • Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate
  • Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space
  • Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore
  • Retail market-CAP Rate
  • Retail market- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 148
  • Logistics Space- Geographic Area
  • Logistics Space- Demand Trend
  • Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy
  • Logistics Space- Rental Index
  • Logistics Space- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 154
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)
  • Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply
  • Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue
  • Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline
  • スライド番号 162
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • スライド番号 167
  • スライド番号 168
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • スライド番号 181
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • スライド番号 187
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies
  • スライド番号 199
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • スライド番号 204
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • スライド番号 210
  • スライド番号 211
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population GrowthIndia is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid UrbanizationIndia is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of EconomyAlthough the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world
  • スライド番号 217
  • Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and GrowthThe construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure
  • Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players PerformanceThe real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes
  • Financing Developments ndash Project Financing OptionsPrivate lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed
  • Financing Developments Trends in REITsREITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry
  • Financing Developments Trends in Domestic InvestmentsDomestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects
  • Financing Developments Trends in Foreign InvestmentsForeign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics
  • Financing Developments Debt position of leading developersDebt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default
  • スライド番号 225
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesGlobal PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesMajor global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesRecently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion
  • スライド番号 229
  • Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy ConditionsFDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years however recent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector
  • スライド番号 231
  • Regulatory Developments ndash DemonetizationDemonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017
  • スライド番号 233
  • Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal SizeThe ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad
  • Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costsNew Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list
  • スライド番号 237
  • Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Residential Space ndash Supply Trends
  • スライド番号 240
  • Retail Space ndash Overall OutlookThe retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes
  • Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Retail Space ndash MallVacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018
  • スライド番号 244
  • Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist DestinationThe travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally
  • Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming InventoryAlthough hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory TrendsDelhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply TrendsAverage room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy
  • Hospitality Space ndash Demand TrendsOccupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year
  • スライド番号 250
  • スライド番号 251
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • スライド番号 256
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • スライド番号 263
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • スライド番号 268
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • スライド番号 272
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • スライド番号 276
  • スライド番号 277
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • スライド番号 287
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • スライド番号 291
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • スライド番号 309
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • スライド番号 313
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • スライド番号 319
  • スライド番号 320
  • スライド番号 321
  • スライド番号 322
  • スライド番号 323
Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized
03 4919 2929 0 0 0 0 0 0
04 12344 6189 5458 0 0 0 0 0
05 24064 15716 7312 9248 0 0 0 0
06 35082 20048 14636 11758 3173 0 0 0
07 72317 42532 34987 1854 7953 1223 1446 0
08 6508 3439 26179 1561 762 10519 6422 0
09 4945 28821 20857 10018 3758 4861 5197 0
10 76738 47631 39742 17782 6188 1220 7522 0
11 104025 87777 5322 27407 12393 16405 13105 0
12 112013 93221 56364 24259 11898 1450 13616 0
13 130698 107712 68086 47917 15109 31961 17999 0
14 159443 115798 80495 64488 1741 4230 18342 0
15 163131 109375 75232 6225 16744 45395 18358 6831
16 168423 127015 82747 6425 13784 41719 19079 7627
17 172877 138636 90674 69255 18147 46492 18982 1031
03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03
04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04
05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
Page 5: The Global Real Estate Market 2017 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 4

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Chinarsquos GDP overtook Japan in 2010 and the gap will expand after 2012 But itrsquos somewhat eased in 2016

(bn USD)

Source IMF

Changes in Japan and Chinarsquos nominal GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 5

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Real GDP growth rate has been on a downward trend since 2007and it hasreachedthe lowest level in 2015 whichrsquos behind the transition from investment-led growth to consumption-led growth

Source The National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes in real GDP growth rate of China and sectoral contribution

()

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Net Exports Gross Capital Formation Consumption Real GDP Growth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 6

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

The national average of per capita GDP in 2015 increased by 3222 yuan as compared with 2014 Just as the three big cities of Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Jiangsu Province has also reached high income national standard of US$12616

(RMB)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note World Bank definition of high-income country GDP per capita ge USD 12616 (about RMB 83619 according to the rate on November 1 2017)

High-income country Average RMB 83619

GDP per capita by provincemunicipality directly under the central government (2015)

China Average RMB 50251(2014 data RMB 46629)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 7

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

In the background of industrial upgrading the tertiary industries have been growing with their contribution to a GDP growth of over 50 in 2016 This growth became the main factor for increasing real estate investment in urban areas

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(100 mil Yuan)

Trends of Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Overall GDP GDP of tertiary industries Percentage of tertiary industries accounting for in GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 8

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

From 2014 to 2015 the proportion of tertiary industry was increasing in every region Shanxi Gansu Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces showed particularly high growth rates of more than 5

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Percentage of tertiary industry GDP as a whole by region (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Beiji

ng

Shan

ghai

Xiz

ang

Hai

nan

Shan

xi

Tia

njin

g

Heilo

ngjia

ng

Gua

ngd

ong

Zhejia

ng

Gan

su

Jia

ngsu

Chongq

ing

Lia

oni

ng

Shan

dong

Yunna

n

Gui

zhou

Xin

jiang

Nin

gxia

Hunan

Sic

huan

Hube

i

Fik

oam

Qin

ghai

Shan

xi

Neim

eng

gu

Henan

Hebe

i

Jia

ngxi

Anh

ui

Jili

n

Gua

ngx

i

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2015)

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2014)

China Average(2015)502

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 9

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population

The peak-out of productive-age population is coming therersquos a widespread concern about economic slowdown

Source Compiled by NRI from UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

(1950=100)Peak

Productive-age population of China and Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 10

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

After 2015 when it is estimated Chinas demographic dividend disappears the government has to face an increased financial burden a decrease of the labor force a consumption slump and other problems due to a declining birthrate and aging population

As a countermeasure in January 2016 the government abolished the ldquoOne-child policyrdquo and formally adopted the ldquoTwo-childrdquo policy At present there are many families who canrsquot produce the second child due to high childcare expenses and education costs However looking at the remarkable population increase in 2016 it can be seen that this policy was effective

The number of births in China in 2016 was 1788 million which increased by 132 million compared with 1654 million the averagenumber of births from 2012 to 2015

On the other hand for the proportion of people over 65 years old it has exceeded 10 in 2016 following Japan China is predicted to enter an aging society after 2025 and into a super aged society after 2035( If the aging rate exceeds 14 it is classified as aged society if over 21 it is classified as super aged society)

As the measures to cope with declining production population and the rise in the number of elderly population Two-child policy has been officially introduced since 2016 which is expected to boost economic growth

() ()

Change in proportion of young population (lt15)

Source UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

Change in proportion of 65+ population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 11

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Chinarsquos urbanization rate had risen by more than 30 points from 1991 to 2016 The National New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) was issued by the State Council of China on 16th March 2014 The plan highlights

that it is essential to raise the quality of urbanization that comes in line with the Chinese approach to urbanization The plan also underlined that by 2020 permanent urban residents will reach approx 60 of the population while residents in the city census register will account for approx 45 of the total population with 100 million rural residents settling down in the urban areas

Urbanization rate in 2016 reached 574 which is expected to reach 60 of the policy goal in 2020 in another two years

Note) Total population in 2020 is the estimate value of UN while the urbanization rate is the target value stated in government policy

(10000 People )

Source China Statistical Yearbook amp UN World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision

Population and urbanization rate in china

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

30000

60000

90000

120000

150000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20ETotal Population Urban Population Urban Population Ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 12

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Urbanization which has progressed mainly in the coastal area has progressed to inland regions and the Northeast such as Liaoning Chongqing Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang The four provinces of Tibet Shandong Guizhou and Hebei are particularly fast to progress in this year

Urbanization rate of China by area (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Shan

ghai

Bei

jing

Tia

njin

gG

uangd

ong

Lia

onin

gJia

ngs

uZhe

jiang

Fik

oam

Cho

ngq

ing

Neim

eng

guH

eilo

ngj

iang

Shan

dong

Hube

iJili

nN

ingx

iaH

aina

nShan

xiShan

xiJia

ngx

iH

ebe

iH

una

nA

nhu

iQ

ingh

aiSic

hua

nXin

jiang

Gua

ngx

iH

ena

nYunn

anG

ansu

Gui

zhou

Xiz

ang

2014 Ratio() 2015 Ratio()

China Average(2015)561

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 13

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions

Although the newly constructed housing construction area in the urban area which peaked in 2011 had a somewhat declining trend since 2011 when the real estate market regulation were implemented it still was over 1 billion square meters per year

(100 million m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics amp MOHURD China

(m2 per capita)

Changes in construction area of new houses in urban areas Changes in housing area per capita in urban areas

CAGR174

Note) Until 2012 public data from the National Bureau of Statistics is used while the data of 2013 -2016used is published by MOHURD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 14

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend

In the past 16 years the per capita disposable income in urban areas increased at an average growth rate of more than 10 indicating a steady growth in Chinas urban Individual consumption ability

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(RMB)

Disposable Income per Capita and Growth Rate in Urban Areas

CAGR107

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 15

Nationwide average 62 of household income per capita is due to salary income and 17 is due to transfer income The cities with high property revenues including real estate income are Beijing (15) Shanghai (14) Zhejiang (11) and Yunnan (11)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note Salary income wage income Business revenue revenue from commercial buying and selling activities Asset income revenue from moveables and real estate Transfer income income from severance pay pension etc

(RMB)

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

Source of annual household income per capita of urban population by region (2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 16

Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2015 exceeded 30 billion yuan which was 77 times as much as that of 2000 Especially since 2007 it increased at an annual growth rate of 16 per year and urged construction demand of commercial facilities

(100 mil Yuan)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and Its Growth Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 17

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 18

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment which shows about 20 of fixed asset investment in urban areas has expanded at a rate of 20 since 2000 However it has declined to a low level due to the recent slowdown in fixed assets growth

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

Growth Rate Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

CAGR218

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 19

Chinas Real Estate Investment

In the three areas of Beijing (56) Shanghai (55) and Hainan (51) real estate investment in urban fixed asset investment is high In proportion to other areas the areas of less than 50 is more than 18 of nationwide average

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

National Average (18)

The Ratio of Real Estate Investment in Urban Fixed Asset Investment by Region in 2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 20

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Regarding the ratio of real estate investment to fixed asset investment all of the regions declined in 2015 compared to the previous year except for North China region Real estate activities are still most active in the southwestern region

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi ShandongSouth Central China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi HainanSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region in 2015

Overtime Comparison of Growth Rate of Proportion of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region (2014-2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 21

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment in Urban China has been a major driving force in GDP growth so far In recent years the growth of GDP is slowing somewhat due to the slump in real estate investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The conventional housing distribution system was abolished

Change in Growth Rates of GDP and of Real Estate Investment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 22

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Even if the real estate investment value rises year by year 23 of that is still housing investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The Percentage of HousingCommercialOffice Investments in Real Estate Investment (2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 23

Land Market in China

In urban areas of China both commercial and residential land tend to be higher and in terms of historical trends prices of residential land and commercial land will rise at a pace that is significantly higher than the overall average Land price is continuously increasing

While the land supply of urban areas is restricted by the government intense bid auction between real estate development companies is also a factor that invariably leads to an increase in land prices

Land price temporarily declined in 2011 due to the influence of real estate market regulation but after that its turning again to an upward trend Its particularly noteworthy that the increase rate of residential land prices was doubling in 2016 compared with the previous year

Source China urban land price monitoring data

(RMBm2)()

Change in Land prices in urban areas of China Change in Land price appreciation rates in urban areas of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 24

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 25

Chinarsquos Residential Market

During the 10 years to 2011 there was a period in which the supply speed of commercial housing slowed down due to a tightening or adjustment of policy Needs for housing however expanded and the completed area was raised by a high average growth rate of 117

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down The housing supply volume from 2014 to 2015 has been reduced by 10 We can see that the housing supply is decelerating

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down and the deceleration of housing supply in urban areas will be strengthened

(10000 m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The area of commercial residencesrsquo completion in China

CAGR117

CAGR-02

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 26

Chinarsquos Residential Market

In 2015 the number of new commodity houses completed in China is 755 million units which is 293 times as large as the number of newly built houses launched in Japan in 241 units

In 2015 the supply of commodity housing in urban area of China is 750 thousand which is equivalent to the scale of about 29 times of the sale of residential housing in Japan although it is 8 lower than the previous year

(10000 House) (m2 per house )

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The number of commercial residence completions and transition of its average completion area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 27

Residential Market in China

Approximately 30 of the housing construction area is concentrated in the four municipalities of Chongqing Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Construction area decreased more than 60 of cities from the previous year Growth of regional cities such as Lanzhou Nanjing and Guiyang attracts particular attention

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Areas of Completed Residential Properties among Major Cities

National Average Growth Rate10

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 28

Chinas Residential Market

The selling price of commercial residences has risen by 32 times during the last 15 years with this trend being especially evident among luxury properties

(RMBm2)

Note) Since sales prices of the economical housing for low-and-middle income earners in 2011 were not reported in the China Statistical Yearbook 2012 the data here was calculated on the basis of data in 2010 by CAGR at 110

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Selling price of commercial residences in China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 29

Chinas Residential Market

Sale price of residential properties has risen by more than 80 in the last 7 years Shenzhen Shanghai Nanjing and Xiamen each have a price increase of 13 times or more

(RMBm2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Sale Price of Commercial Housing in Major Cities (Comparison between 2008 and 2015)

National Average Growth Rate81

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Selling Prices in 2008 (left scale) Selling Prices in 2015(left scale) Increase in 7 years since 2008(right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 30

Chinas Residential Market

For the past 15 years the annual income ratio of house price in China has changed to about seven times but there was not much change

Shenzhen Shanghai and Beijing are particularly fluctuating Especially in Shenzhen the house price annual income ratio of this 15 years rises nearly five times and it becomes the city which is the most difficult to obtain housing in China

With respect to the annual income ratio of house price Shenzhen is the highest at 28 times followed by Shanghai (21 times) Beijing (18 times) and magnifications tend to expand from the previous year in addition to Guangzhou and Shenyang

Source Statistical material by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the National Bureau of Statistics

(Times)

The housing selling prices to income ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 31

House supply policy of China

Monetary easing policies were implemented after the Lehman shock resulted in skyrocketing housing prices in Beijing Shanghai and other major cities in China As a countermeasure the Chinese government implemented a series of policies that made it more difficult for the acquisition of houses after October 2009

Although house price fluctuations were affected by political tightening and repetition of mitigation and others it was never stopped to raise housing prices especially in large cities while rather acquiring houses became increasingly difficult

Although the policy implemented by the government from 2009 had some effects in reducing housing prices it could never stop the housing price rise and housing acquisition difficulties

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Monthly sales price of commercial housing compared with that of the same month in the previous year (after 2007)

End of 2008 Economic recovery through reduction of interest rates and exemption of real estate acquisition tax etc

October 2009Implementation of housing price suppression policies Abolishment of tax incentives (real estate transaction tax and personal income tax) Implementation of differentiated housing loan policy

March ~ April 2010Purchase of house was limited in 48 cities Higher down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Restriction of banking loan to developers

January 2011Further increase of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Trial introduction of property tax for the third house in Shanghai and Chongqing Increase of house supply through provision of affordable houses

September 2014 Decrease of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house by the central bank Policy for limiting house purchases was abolished in most cities Promoted expansion of financing route and supported banks and other financial institutions to issue housing bonds and REITs

Restriction Easing Easing

()

February~March 2016bull In cities without purchase constraints the

reduction of initial payment of housing loan to 20 was possible

bull Possible further reduction in real estate transaction taxes and business tax

April 2016bull Only First Class Cities such as Shanghai

Shenzhen successively issued new policies to constrain purchases

February~March 2015bull The central government and regional governments will issue

relaxation policies such as consumption acceleration of houses at stock in the Second- and Third-class cities tax reduction supply of subsidies to solve regionality and constitutive issuesof the real estate industry

Restriction

March 2017bull The Tier1 and Tier2

cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen have launched regulation policies continuously

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 32

Government Housing Policy in China

Chinas housing market has been spurred as a vicious circle like if policy loosens itll be overheating If policy ties down itll cool downldquo and it has been supported by high demand so the price rise is expected to continue focusing on 70 cities around the future

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The change of cities number with the housing pricersquos deviation at the link relative ratio in the 70 major cities of China (2011-20179)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 33

Government Housing Policy in China

In July 2017 the government announced the latest policy about the development acceleration of the lease house market targeting at the large and medium-sized cities where lack lease house seriously

The extracts of Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a

net population inflow ( publication with July 26 2017 )

There is a large population to flow into the large and medium-sized cities every year in China The actuality is that the absolutely needed quantity of the leasehold property is insufficient The floating population in 2016 of China reaches 245 million In addition the annual new college graduates are about 7 million people

According to the rental market research report published by Lianjia Research Institute of a large real estate intermediary company focusing on Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou the floating population in Tier1 cities will account for more than 40 of the overall population in the future

In order to solve the new housing problem of the citizens in large and medium cities in July 2017 Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a net population inflow (Hereinafter referred to briefly as ldquonotificationrdquo)

According to the notification in the large and medium cities with a net population inflow therersquore some problems with insufficient total rental housing market disorder imperfect of payment support system and introduced relevant policies to speed up the construction of rental housing and rental housing market cultivation and development

Promote more specialized and large-scale enterprises engaged in leasing residential enterprises

Establish a government property rental housing transaction service platform

Expand the supply of rental housing Renewal of rental housing management and service system

The extracts of the model plan of utilizing a group construction site to build the lease house(publication with August 28 2017)

Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other developments selected Beijing Shanghai Shenyang Nanjing Hangzhou Hefei Xiamen Zhengzhou Wuhan Guangzhou Foshan Zhaoqing Chengdu and other 13 cities as pilot cities for the development of rental housing policy

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 34

Prospects of Chinas residential market

In 2018 the characteristics of residential market in China are as below The rental housing market in the Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is on the rise and the supply scale of the medium and large housing has expanded

Directions of Chinas residential market in 2018

bull The contradiction between the inflow of new population and the unaffordable housing in large and medium-sized cities has widened

Increase the supply of rental housing in Tier1 and Tier2 cities with significant population inflow

bull The new housing requirements spawned by ldquotwo-child policyrdquo and the maintenance demand to child care-related service

The demand for large and medium sized housing that value child-rearing and related service enrichment is expanding

bull The diversification of residential demand in Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is coexistent with high housing price

Strong Tier1 and Tier2 cities have boosted the residential market in Tier3 and Tier4 cities

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 35

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 36

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

As a result of the slowdown in consumption growth and the impact of e-commerce the supply of commercial facilities has been gradually decreasing in the years since 2013

(10 thousand m2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Nationwide Commercial Facilities Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 37

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Investment in commercial facilities has been steadily increasing at an average annual rate of 26 by 2014 but significant investment continued to decelerate after that

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Investment Amount and Growth Rate of Commercial Facilities

CAGR230

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 38

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

The average sale price of commercial facilities has recovered slightly in the past two years and has increased in north China and eastern China and has decreased in south China

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in China

The sale areas and sale price of commercial facilities in eachregion(2015 and 2016)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

North China Northeast

China

Eastern

China

South Central

China

Southwest

China

Northwest

China

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (left scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (right scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 39

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Sales of commercial facilities in Guizhou Chongqing Hainan Henan and Gansu have all doubled in the last five years By contrast sales in the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning Heilongjiang and Jilin) have declined significantly

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities by Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 40

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

Office supply in urban areas in China has experienced a downturn after the Lehman Brothersrsquo failure in 2008 however a growing trend with a low completion rate continues as a whole

(10 thousand m2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Change in Nationwide Office Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 41

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

By 2014 due to the rapid increase in investment in the office market the construction of office buildings also welcomed Immediate peach And in the last three years as investment growth has slowed the office market has regained its stability

(100 mil Yuan)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Investment Amount Growth Rate of Office Development

CAGR21

CAGR33

CAGR8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 42

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

More than 40 of office sales are concentrated in eastern China In the last two years the sales volume has increased by more than 30 which is concentrated in east China and north China and the unit price has been increasing again

(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices in China Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices by Area (2014 and 2015)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

North China Northeast China Eastern China South Central

China

Southwest China Northwest China

Sales Spaces of Office in 2015 (left scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Office in 2015 (right scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 43

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

In the last five years sales of office buildings in Shandong Xinjiang Guizhou and Chongqing have been extremely brisk In contrast Liaoning and Tianjin saw a significant reduction in sales volume

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Office Sales Spaces by Region

14082

-562

88282

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 44Source Public information of Commercial Property Cloud Think Tank

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Chinarsquos commercial real estate market tendency of shopping center

In recent years the opening area of shopping center in eastern China has been in the first place but it has shown a deceleration trend On the other hand central China is more in Tier2 cities and inland cities where the development of shopping centers is booming

In 2016 the number of newly opened large-scale shopping centers in China was 465 which have a total development area of 43193500increasing by 321 compared to 2015

In 2016 the area with the most new openings was east China followed by north China and south China Compared with the slowdown in central China the development of the southwest region has attracted considerable attention

The opening area of the first-class city accounts for about 15 of the total and the new first-class city with remarkable growth accounts for 25 of the total Small scale projects of less than 200000 are mainstream

The area and quantity of new opening shopping centers in 2016 Number of new start-up shopping centers by size in 2016

Note) The shopping center here is counted only for large projects over 30000 Note) First-class cities refer to the four cities of Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou and ShenzhenNewfirst class cities refer to the 15 cities of Chengdu Hangzhou Wuhan Tianjin Nanjing Chongqing Xian Changsha Qingdao Shenyang Dalian Xiamen Suzhou Ningbo and Wuxi

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 45

Prospects of commercial real estate market in China

In 2018 the commercial real estate market in China needs to build a construction facility and operation management system that adapts to the present era and citizens consumption behavior

Directions of Chinas real estate market in 2018

bull Update needs of existing traditional commercial business Differentiation development needs during commercial setting Compounding construction needs in commercial development delayed region

Modification of existing commerce centered on Tier1 and Tier2 cities new construction of Lifestyle-based small-scale specialty commerce and construction of a large complex commercial centering on Tier3 and Tier4 cities

bull Activation of everyday consumer behavior relying on online more and more in theTier1 and Tier2 cities

Establishment of a new commercial business model including the introduction of online-offline business model and examination of operations management system accordingly

bull Lack of a convenient community of nearby commercials that can adapt to todays era and citizens life

Construction of a living-oriented neighborhood commerce tackling many business styles such as childcare and senior services

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 46

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 47

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In 2016 the top 10 companies were the same as last year but the ranking changed The most notable was that Evergrande Real Estate surpassed the industrys largest enterprise Vanke Real Estate to become the No1 in the industry

Rank2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales1 Vanke Group 1215 Vanke Group 1452 Vanke Group 1776 Vanke Group 2120 Vanke Group 2627 Poly Group 2627

2 Dalian Wanda Group 953 Poly Group 1020 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1625 Shanghai Greenland Group 2080 Evergrande Group 2050 Vanke Group 2050

3 EvergrandeGroup 804 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1013 Poly Group 1251 DalianWanda Group 1501 Shanghai Greenland

Group 2015 Country Garden 2015

4 Shanghai Greenland Group 770 China Overseas

Land 945 China Overseas Land 1103 Evergrande Group 1376 Dalian

Wanda Group 1513 Shanghai Greenland Group 1513

5 Poly Group 732 Dalian Wanda Group 938 Evergrande Group 1073 Poly Group 1362 China Overseas

Land 1492 Poly Group 1492

6 China Overseas Land 708 Evergrande Group 925 Country Garden 1068 Country Garden 1250 Poly Group 1471 China Overseas

Land 1471

7 Country Garden 432 China Greentown 547 Dalian Wanda Group 844 China Overseas

Land 1152 Country Garden 1402 Longfor Group 1402

8 Longfor Group 383 China Resources Land 505 China Resources

Land 688 Shimao Property Holdings 708 China Resources

Land 851 RampF Properties 851

9 China Greentown 353 Country Garden 491 Shimao Property Holdings 683 China Resources

Land 700 Sunac China 731 Country Garden 731

10 China Resources Land 330 Shimao Property

Holdings 461 China Greentown 660 Sunac China 658 China Fortune Land Development 725 Dalian Wanda

Group 725

TotalSales 6680 8297 10771 12907 14877 22022

Total Share within

National Sales

113 129 133 169 170 1872

Average Coverage 405 Cities 531 Cities 672 Cities 737 Cities 751 Cities 875 Cities

Source) Compiled by NRI based on publicly available information and the data of each companyrsquos homepage

Comparison of Developers Top 10 (2011~2016)Unit 100 mil RMB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 48

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In the recently announced Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017 domestic capital and Hong Kong-Singaporean companies accounted for half of the total SCPG whichrsquos the subsidiary of Vanke Real Estate has replaced Wanda group enter the Top3

Rank Company Name Company Nature Overall Rating Score Representative Commercial Project

1 China Resources Land domestic capital 897 Shenzhen MIXC

2 Hang Lung Properties Hong Kong capital 879 Plaza 66

3 CSPG domestic capital 866 Wuhan INCITY

4 Wanda Commercial Real Estate domestic capital 858 Wanda Plaza

5 Longfor Properties domestic capital 824 Chongqing North Street

6 Capitaland Singapore captial 823 Raffles City Shanghai Plaza

7 SHK Properties Hong Kong capital 817 ICC Shanghai

8 Swire Properties Hong Kong capital 815 Chengdu TaiKoo Hui

9 Joy City Properties domestic capital 809 Shanghai Joy City

10 Wharf Holdings Hong Kong capital 808 Shanghai Time Square

Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017

Note) November 2017 New perspective media announced TOP 100 enterprises in 2017China Commercial real estate Four indicators are used in the overall evaluation (full mark 100 points) as management (40 points) management (30 points) brand (20 points) and innovation (10 points)

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 49

bull The government will introduce various incentives to expand the rental housing market

The new type of residential leasing enterprises centered on large state-owned enterprises keeps pouring out

bull Real estate developers are actively involved in the construction of a small town (street) in the background of the new city

Work with other companies across industries to develop new real estate products

bull From the previous emphasis on the development of real estate developers a focus on industrial agglomeration and cultivation of operation managers

Real estate developers have diversified into other businesses as well as the rapid growth of industrial property developers who are engaged in the development and operation of industrial parks

1

2

3

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 50

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 51

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 52

Macroeconomic trends

The Korean economy is expected to continue growing at a low rate of 3

The trend and forecast of GDP and economic growth rate in Korea

SourceNRI based on IMF (201710)

GDP CAGR in 90s

67

GDP CAGR in 00s

42

Expected GDP CAGR after 2011

30

600

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

500

400

300

200

100

0200

2200

1200

0199

9199

8199

7201

5199

5199

4199

3199

2199

1199

02020(E)

2019(E)

2018(E)

2017(E)

2016(E)

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

1996

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

295296296302283279331290

650546518

392490

743

1131

957921

1035981

229368

071

283293

453

892

-547

592

760685

618

GDP (Real GDP Trillion Won) Economic Growth Rate ()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 53

Macroeconomic trends

Interest rate has declined to 1 since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 Low interest rate is expected to increase the liquidity

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Interest Rate (1998-2016)

475525

4 425375

325375

455

3

225

325275 25

215 125

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10yr Treasury Bond (average)

3yr Cooperate Bond aa- (average)

CD 91 days (average)

Call Rate (overnight average)

Base Rate

(unit )

Consistent downturn in interest ratesince 1998

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 54

Macroeconomic trends

With the implementation of a loose monetary policy for economic revitalization the amount of domestic currency is continuously increasing and market liquidity is expanding

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Trends in average balance of KRW (1998-2016)

rsquo98年以後

持続的な増加傾向

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Lf M2 M1 ハイパワードマネー

Consistently increasing trendsince 1998

(unit Trillion Won)

Note High-powered money = Currency issued + KRW deposited in financial institutions and The Bank of Korea M1 (consultation currency) Currency-in-circulation + demand deposits and savings account balance where deposit or withdrawal can be done any time - mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

M2 (Broad currency) M1 + time depositssavingsreservespayments + market-based financial instruments (CDRPAccommodation bill) + financial instruments offering dividend + bank debentures + others (investment securities and savingspromissory notes issued by financial companies) - long-term financial instruments (2 years)mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

(Liquidity of financial institutions) M1 + Savingsreservesbank debentures within M2 with maturity period of 2 years or more + deposits with Korea Securities Finance Corporation + reserves for insurance contracts with life insurance companies (including post offices) + deposits excluding those of agricultural cooperatives or country people - mutual dealings of such financial instruments between institutions covered in Lf

High-powered money

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 55

Macroeconomic trends

Valorization Policy maintains Consumer Price Index at approximately 1

Changes in Consumer Price Index(CPI) Year-on-year Ratio

(unit Year-on-Year )

271

191

250265

210

176203

384

237260

367

207

126 125

070097

328

168

280

356

306

243257

444

182

303

406

165

071084

-022

067

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CPI CPI for living necessities

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea Media Research

Note CPI is calculated on a monthly basis assuming year 2015 as 100 and covering 481 items (weighted average) for research

CPI for living necessities provides a separate summary of 142 products that are designated as daily necessities or those that are purchased frequently out of the total 481 products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 56

Macroeconomic trends

After the Lehman shock the wondollar exchange rate fell However it started to rise after 2014

WonDollar exchange rate trends

907

1411

1013

1145

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

05

01

05

06

05

11

06

04

06

09

07

02

07

07

07

12

08

05

08

10

09

03

09

08

10

01

10

06

10

11

11

04

11

09

12

02

12

07

12

12

13

05

13

10

14

03

14

08

15

01

15

06

15

11

16

04

16

09

17

02

17

07

(unit Won)

It started to increase after 2014

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Note Based on the current price of KRW USD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 57

12655 11795 33593

18656

81148 105940 98677

Current account

Macroeconomic trendsThe current account surplus is slightly lower (approximately 990 dollars) than the one last year which was recorded the highest This is because of the fall in exports and the deficit in service balance resulted from recession in construction and transportation industry

Current account trends

-70000

-20000

30000

80000

130000

180000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Balance of secondary income

Balance of primary income

Balance of services

Balance of goods

(unit million dollar)

345115

728805 622212

303672

636241

484159

Exports of Goos amp Services

Imports of Goods amp Services

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 58

Macroeconomic trendsThe rise of the rate of employment and unemployment The rise of the employment rate is attributed to increase in the middle-agedelderly workers However for job seekers in their 20s the work environment is not improving

Employment Rate and Unemployment Rate in Korea Employment Rate by Age

(unit ) (unit ten thousands people) (unit )

Improvement in employment rate

389 378 371 365 361 357 363 369 375

601 584 583 579 576 574 571 568 564

655 652 655 661 662 664 668 667 664

430 450 479 508 535 561 585 599 609

264 269 274 289 311 329 349 366 388

595

586 587591

594 595

602 603 604

50

52

54

56

58

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10s 20s 30s 40s 50s over 60 Employment rate

No of employees over 50s(372 )

590

600

593

598 597 597 598

595

586 587

591

594 595

602603 604

40

33

36 37 3735

32 32

36 37

3432 31

3536 37

00

10

20

30

40

50

57

58

59

60

61

62

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Employment rate Umemployment rate

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (KOSTAT)

Note Employment Rate=(employeepopulation over age 15)x100 Unemployment Rate=(The UnemployedEconomically Active Population)x100

Improvement in both employment

and unemployment rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 59

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 60

Office market trends

The Seoul office market is divided into three categories CBD government agencies and conglomerate headquarters YBD financial district GBD IT district

Sphere wise office market of Seoul

Seoul City hall

bull The largest office district with a long history

bull Developed since the 1960s and has a high level of infrastructure

bull The highest rental rate in Korea bull Conglomerate headquarters foreign

companies in Korea (Seoul) insurancesecurities companies government agency buildings embassies etc

bull Developed since the mid 1980sbull Lower vacancy rate than the other

districts due to low new supplybull Rent rate in between two other

districtsbull ITconglomerates and foreign

companies

CBD(Central Business District)

GBD(Gangnam Business District)

bull Developed since the late 1980sbull Rent is lower than CBD and GBDbull Headquarters of financial

institutions such as banks and securities

YBD(Yeouido Business District)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 61

Office market trends

Regarding the domestic office market the supply of new offices increased mainly in CBD and YBD after 2010 After 2014 the supply of new offices mainly increased in GBD

Trends in new supply of offices in Seoul

CBD Central(1970 to 1986)

GBD Central(1987 to 2009)

(unit 万)

CBD(2010

to 2011)

YBD(2012 to

2013)

GBD(2014

onwards)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

70 72 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 62

Office market trends

The vacancy rate of new prime offices in Seoul was 8 and the rental rate reduced to 87K KRW33m2Month

Vacancy rate of prime offices in Seoul Rental rate of prime offices in Seoul

(unit KRW33Month)

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 63

Office market trends

The number of major office transactions in Seoul was 72 and it is rapidly increasing with the total sale price

Number of Seoul office sales and total sale prices

(unit Trillion KRW)(Unit sale)

Note Offices with total floor area of 3300m2 or more only are covered

25

35

57

4241

52 26

39 38

53

48

57 58 59

51

46

72

17 19 26

22

28 26

12

41 42 48 46

55 56 60

70

36

88

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Total Sale Price

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 64

Office market trends

The office sale price was about 48 Millionm2 and the cap rate was 53

Sales volume and pricem2 by office district in Seoul

2488 2818

3658 4034

3513 3760

4103 4284 4297

4632 4787 4829

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Averaged Sale Pricem2

(Unit Ten thousands ) (Unit Thousand KRW)

79

73

67

62 6366

68

60

54

59

48

53

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 65

Office market trends

In 2015 the averaged volume of office sales was 19000m2 and the averaged sale price per 33m2 was about 16M KRW

Sale price per volume by office district in Seoul (2016 property transaction)

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Note This analysis covers 43 offices with transactions concluded mainly in CBD GBD and YBD in 2016Transactions for the completion of construction in 2016 IFC individual transactions etc 7 cases are excluded

(Price ten thousands KRW33m2) (unit ten thousands KRW33m2)

Volume(m2)

CBD GBD YBD

1500

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1000

500

9000060000300002000010000 250000 1500050000

35000

National Health Insurance Corporation

Teheran building

Capital TowerCosmos building

Daewoo Shipbuilding amp Marine Engineering Building

Center point opticalization

Samsung Lifes Head Office

International building

Jong-Ro Tower

Average transaction cost1791(10K KRW 33)

Average transaction area19474 ()

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

00

1955 Million KRW

2005 Million KRW

1328 Million KRW

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 66

Office market trends

The office market Cap rate in 2015 was about 5 and Spread of government bonds was 4

Trends of Seoul office cap rate and T-bill

Source NRI based on Media Research

41 42 32

48 34

25 21 09 04

15 22 18 27 23 27 26 31

7869 66

51 47 50

52 54 56 52 48 42

35 33 32 23 22

119 111

98 98

8275 73

62 6067 70

60 6156 59

49 53

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

스프레드 국고채 10년 Cap rate(unit )

ldquoPositioning investee companies as steady and profitable with the 3 level Spreadrdquo

Real estate market activities

Temporary market stagnation due to

financial crises

Alternate investments becoming active due to low-interest rate policy

Spread T-bill (10yr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 67

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 68

Residential market trendsThe domestic household debts have increased to 1300 Trillion KRW Among these home equity loan accounts for 40 Also the default risk is rising because of decline in real estate prices and increase in interest rates

Trends in scale of household finance

665724

776843

916 9641021

10891203

1344

293 311 338 363 392 404 418 461 491546

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

가계대출 주택대출(単位 兆ウォン)

440

430436

430 428

419409

423408 406

주택담보대출비중Unit Trillion KRW Weight of home equity loan

Household finance Housing loan

Source NRI Analysis National Statistical Office (NSO)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 69

Residential market trends

The land price index and the land transaction volume are gradually rising

Land Transaction Volume and Land Price Index1)

224 229 223207

233

204224

264

309 300

28 26 23 17 19 16 20 26 36 37

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

National

Seoul

890 887 895 905 915 924 935 953

976 1002

Land price index1)

Land transactionvolume

(unit No of lots)CAGR193

CAGR66

(Lot unit 10 thousand number of case )

Note 1) Based on Land Price Index 2016121 = 100

Source NRI based on data from Real Estate Official Statistics Network (httpwwwr-onecokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 70

Residential market trendsThe housing transaction volume was showing recovery after 2012 however with the increase in uncertainties such as the credit examination strengthening and the interest rate increase in USA it has slightly decreased

Transition of National Housing Transaction Volume

(unit no of transaction)Transaction volume of metropolitan areaaccounts for about 54 of that of nationwide

384777

385400 443923475075

517361

608424

463459

488757

543062

581909

484807

2015

1193691

611782

2014

1005173

462111

2013

851850

363093

2012

735414

271955

2011

981238

372814

2010

799864

282503

2009

870353

395278

2008

893790

449867

2007

867933

482533

2006

1082453

697676

2016

1053069

568262

Capital areaRural area

212978221683

148266111889

83257114315

88737138016147023159396

263599

Seoul

Source NRI based on data from Onnara Real Estate (httpwwwonnaragokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 71

Residential market trends

The supply of housing units increases since 2013 especially in apartments In 2016 about one million units are newly supplied

Housing supply by types of housing

544909

644512

459887 468642 504481

804019 854095

658025

727354

1085838 1055149

412891 476462

263153 297183 276989

356762 376086

278739

347687

534931 506816

106251

152042 186637

163357

219823

349661 340477

277594 274869

350463 341915

25767 16008 10097 8102 7669 13596 13532 32692 41170

105112

128450

84000 124000

69000 63628 95332

77968

-

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total Apartment Multi-unit dwelling Officetel Urban-type housing(unit no of housing supply) (unit no of house)

Source NRI based on statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation

Official statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation do not include some officetels and urban-type residences hence the gross households supplied would be different from what is mentioned in this report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 72

Residential market trends

The average Housing Price Index has been increasing since 2013 especially in Seoul and the metropolitan area

Housing Price Index (10 years) Housing Price Index (3 years)

(unit index) (unit index)

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

Note Standard of National Housing Price Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source National Statistical Office

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 73

Residential market trends

The Jeonse (House Lease) price index has consistently illustrated an upward trend in these ten years However recently the growth rate has slowed down

Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (10 years) Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (3 years)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

940

945

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

1055

1060

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Capital AreaNational Rural AreaSeoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

(unit index) (unit index)

Note Based on National House Lease Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source NRI based on Korea Appraisal Board

Jeonse refers to the way houses are leased Instead of paying monthly rent a renter will makea lump-sum deposit on a rental space at anywhere from 50 to 80 of the market value

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 74

Residential market trends

The Jeonse cost is about 68 of the Housing price The standard in the capital area being 70 it is mainly increasing in Seoul and capital area

National Jeonse Cost to Housing Price

556 563 566 572 577 586 593 584 593 606 616 622 626 631 638 646 653 661 672 678 680 680

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11

3Q

11

4Q

12

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

13

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

14

1Q

14

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

15

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

16

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

National Capital Area Seoul Rural Area

(単位 )

CAGR

National

Capital Area

Seoul

Rural Area

10

16

16

05

Source NRI data from based on The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 75

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 76

Commercial facilities market trends

The retail market scale has reached approximately 300 trillion KRW including the both online and offline especially the online business that has shown a remarkable increase

OnlineOffline Retail Market Scale (2006-2016)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores) Online market = Computer shopping mobile shopping (excluding TV home shopping and catalogue shopping)

The total sales of large marts calculated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) excludes the sales of duty free shops and includes those of complex malls and Auretto Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Korea Online Shopping Association

309

243(79)

66(21)

2015

2016

287

233(81)

54(19)

2014

273

227(83)

45(17)

2013

265

226(85)

40(15)

2012

260

225(86)

36(14)

2011

249

217(87)

32(13)

2010

224

201(90)

23(10)

2009

208

188(90)

21(10)

2008

198

179(91)

18(9)

2007

188

172(92)

16(8)

(Unit Trillion KRW ) オフラインオンライン

CAGR (2007 to 2011)

73

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

44 CAGR(2007 to 2011)

60 20

191 164

Online Offline

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 77

Commercial facilities market trends

Among the offline stores CVS has been leading in growth while the other businesses stay on slow growth

Offline Retail Market Scale (2011-2016 business type wise)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores)

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO)

233

102(44)

49(21)

29(12)

29(13)

7(3)

17(7)

2014

227

102(45)

47(21)

29(13)

29(13)

7(3)

13(6)

2013

226

103(46)

46(20)

30(13)

28(13)

7(3)

2012

12(5)

225

45(20)

2016

243

103(42)

53(22)

30(12)

30(12)

106(47)

7(3)

20(8)

2015

29(13)

28(12)

7(3)

11(5)

Department stores Speciality retail stores

HypermarketSM (excluding SSM)SSM (Corporate supermarkets)

Convenience stores

CAGR

01

82 239

13

(2012 to 2014)(2014 to 2016)

29 56

38 28

24 26

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

49

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

32

(Unit Trillion KRW )

-17 03

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 78

Commercial facilities market trends

Regarding SM market the growth rate remains in 2 range and SSM rate stays 20 range

SM market scale (2012-2016)

SSM = Lotte Super GS Retail Home Plus Everyday Retail Seowon Distribution Fishery Cooperatives and Logistics and CS Logistics standards

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Distributors Yearbook

(unit Trillion KRW )

304(80)

74(20)

2015

368

283(81)

68(19)

2012

295(80)

73(20)

2014

359

289(80)

70(20)

2013

351

2016

378

275(81)

340

65(19)

25

33

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

27

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

26

SMSSM

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 79

Commercial facilities market trends

The Online market is rapidly growing more than 10 every year and purchase channel is shifting from computer to mobile

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 procurement channel wise)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association

(Unit Trillion KRW )

2016

657

2013

397

244(45)

295(55)

317(70)

135(30)

452

2014

356(54)

301(46)

2015

539

59(15)

338(85)

2012

366

26(7)

340(93) 919

-30

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

MobilePC

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 80

Commercial facilities market trends

In looking at the business types the growth of online stores is led by the expansion of open market and social commerce

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 by business type)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association and Justice Committee Meeting

(Unit Trillion KRW )

254(56)

300(56)

328(50)215

(60)233

(59)

2016

657

98(15)

230(35)

2012

358

19(5)

124(35)

2015

539

80(15)

159(29)

2014

452

55(12)

143(32)

2013

397

34(9)

130(33)

505

167

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

OthersSocial commerceOpen market

112

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 81

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 82

Investment market trends

REITs market has expanded to 25 Trillion KRW In recent years REITs are mostly by Private Offers

Trends in scale of domestic REITs market

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

공모 사모

4 8 10 12 14 18 20 36

50 69 71

80 98

125

169

리츠수

(AUM Standards Unit Trillion KRW individuals)

06 10 14 17 33 50 4970

7682 95

117149

180

245

Funds REITsPublicOffer

PrivateOffer

Source NRI Analysis KORAMCO Korea Financial Investment Association

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 83

Investment market trends

The market has been gradually changing for the past 10 years shifting the focus from CR-REITs to externally-managed REITs

Trends in composition ratio of domestic REITs

(総資産基準 )

1000 1000 1000

637541 707

650

694 644 630527 404 367

309

208

363459

293340 300 346 337

427563 605 667

780

10 07 10 33 45 33 28 24 12

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠 위탁관리리츠 자기관리리츠Corporate

Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

Source NRI Analysis REITs Information System

(Level of total assets )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 84

Investment market trends

With the reduction of composition ratio of CR-REITs the composition ratio of listed REITs is also reduced to 14

Trends in proportion of domestic and listed REITs

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠

위탁관리리츠

자기관리리츠

778

1000937

783

588

367 329

174104 127 122 122 89 59

14

系列1(Level of total assets )

Proportion of listed REITsCorporate Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

The real estate prices were calculated keeping the index as on December 2015 as 100 and beneficiary rate was calculated based on the Housing Price Index

Source NRI Analysis Factset Bloomberg Kookmin Bank Korea Investment amp Securities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 85

Investment market trends

In looking at the each sectors the diversification of REITs assets is growing including domains such as retail logistics and hotel

44

31 3223

1622

29

46

100

50

7571

100

2861

45

3150 40

38

25

50

2529

17

8

9

8

1819

1713

6

8

56

10 99

8

7 9

5 55 5

22

4 4 1 2

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

기타

호텔

물류 공장

리테일

오피스

주택

(unit )

Others

Hotel

LogisticsFactory

Retail

Office

House

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (numbers of REITs)

Source NRI based on Korea Financial Investment Association Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport Korea Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts KORAMCO

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 86

Investment market trends

In looking at AUM basis the majority of REITsrsquo assets are still by the offices and housing

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (AUM-based)

(AUM 基準 )

05 08 12 13 23 37 36 44 49 5671 81 89 89

112

1013 12

19 1718

1723

27 29

35

00

07 09 0604

05

2449

83

0103

08

09

13

15

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

오피스 리테일 주택 기타オフィス リテール 住宅 その他

Source NRI Analysis Korea Financial Investment Association KAREIT

AUM standards Office Retail Housing Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 87

Investment market trends

The margin ratio of REITs is 6 range having less fluctuations than the other financial instruments

REITs dividend yield ratio

(単位 )

85 66 84122 119

404

280 261

86 83 71 92 62 81 66

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

국고채 10년 기준금리 리츠수익률 코스피수익률(YoY)

Source NRI Analysis

T-Bill (10yr) Base rate REITs margin ratio

KOSPIMargin ratio

(YoY)Unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 88

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 89

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 90

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The area of the dominated territory of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is equals to that of Kyushu and with 23 million

90

Country name Republic of China (Founded Oct 10 1912)(The relocation of the Chinese Nationalist Party to Taiwan was in 1949)

Era name Minguo (2017 AD= Minguo 106)

Capital Taipei City (Population 269 million)

Major cities Shinipei City (Population 398 million) Taoyuang City (217 million) Taichung City (278 million) Tainan City (189 million) Kaohsiung City (278 million)

Area Approx 36197 km2 (2016 A bit little smaller than Kyushu Japan)

Population Approx 2355million (as of Jul 2017)

Ethnic Composition Han Race 98 Aboriginal 2

Currency New Taiwan dollar (NTD) 1 NTD=Approx 366 yen (As of Jul 2017)

Nominal GDP USD 5299 billion (2016)

Nominal GDP per capita USD 22540 (2016)

No of Japanese residents 21887 (as of Oct 2016)

Number of Japanese companies Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Taipei member firms 466 (Mar 2017)

Number of travelers between Japan

From Japan to Taiwan from Japan 190 million (2016)From Taiwan to Japan from Taiwan 430million (2016)

Overview of Taiwan

Matsu Kinmen Region

Penghu Islands

CapitalTaipei

TaichungCity

Kaohsiung City

Tainan City

ShinpeiCity

TaoyuangCity

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 91

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population of childbearing age has reached the apex The total population is predicted to decrease after 2020 and thus the issue of population decline has emerged

Population has been expected to reach the peak in around 2025 and after that population in Taiwan may decease gradually

Population in Taiwan by age-group

Popu

latio

n (th

ousa

nd))

Source NRI based on the CEPD Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

5739 5716 5525 5076 4703 4259 3624 3188 3062 3038 2851

11361 12621 13607 14650 15652 16295 17050 17366 16847 15998 15161

766 977

1269 1631

1921 2217 2488 2939 3788 4698 5574

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-64 Ages 65 or overlarrActual Forecastrarr

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 92

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population density in Taiwan is approximately twice as that in Japan

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in population distribution

Land area

36197

377972

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2016)

(kmsup2)

Total population

24

127

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

Population density

651

335

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

x 19

(百万人) (人 kmsup2)

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 93

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

GDP per capita of Taiwan is about 67 of that of Japan and income level is 83

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in the scale of economy

Exchange rate (Date Dec 2015)1USD = 11605 YEN1USD = 32171 NTD

GDP

5299

49386

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(億ドル)

GDP Per capita

22540

38917

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

Household income

38960

47031

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(ドル) (ドル)

X 083

X 058

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 94

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Taiwanrsquos economy showed negative growth during IT bubble of 2001 and the financial crisis after Lehman Shock of 2009 but it quickly returned to stable growth trend

Since 2010 European debt crisis has worsened the global economy In the meanwhile US Domestic manufacturing has growth and the Chinas ldquoRed Supply Chainrdquo has risen Accordingly Taiwanrsquos export decreased which causes decline in GDP growth rate

Taiwanrsquos GDP growth rate slightly declined at the level of around 15 while is expected to increase 122

GDP growth rate in Taiwan

-165

526

367

619

470 562

652

070

-157

1063

380

206 22

402

072148

211 227

-5

0

5

10

15

()

(y)

Forecast

Source NRI based on the DGBAS Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 95

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The cross-strait relationship has improved greatly since 2008 While after 2016 the interaction between these two countries may reduce

History of Cross-strait relationshipMay 2008 Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party becomes the 12th President of Taiwan

Jul Chinese tourists to Taiwan was deregulated (Group tour)Dec The Three Links (Liberalization in commerce transportation and postal service) is implementedDec Cross-Strait Conference on the Cooperation and Exchange of the Chinese Medicine Industry which is the project representing the cross-

strait industrial bridge was held in Taipei

Apr 2009 The third summit meeting of cross-strait contact points was held A memorandum on cross-strait financial cooperation (concerning banks securities and insurances) was signed and chartered flights were decided to be increased and become scheduled

Jul Chinese investment into Taiwan was deregulated (63 kinds in manufacturing 24 in service and 11 in public works was released to be invested by Chinese)

Nov Cross-Strait financial MOU was signed (Put into effect in January 2010)

Jun 2010 The Fifth ChenndashChiang summit was held Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was signed and 267 Chinarsquos products and 539 Taiwanrsquos products are listed in the tariff concessions

Jan 2011 Started waiving import tariffs (so-called Early Harvest list)

Nov Both sides agreed on industry cooperation in following segments (LED Municipal Wireless Cold Chain Logistics TFT-LCD EV)

Aug 2012 The customs authorities of Taiwan and China signed a Cross-Strait Customs Cooperation Agreement regarding customs service smuggling crackdown and tariff reduction

Aug Both sides reached a consensus to promote a mechanism of transparency information loosing investment limitations to promote prosperity

Jun 2013 The Cross-Strait Agreement in Trade in Services based on WTO framework is signed It proposes opening up over 100 services sectors in phases

Mar 2014 Taiwans ruling Kuomintang party attempted a unilateral move in the Legislative Yuan to force the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement to the legislative floor without giving it a clause-by-clause review Such an action occurred An Anti-Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement demonstration on the next day

April Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng visited the occupied parliament chamber and promised to postpone review of the trade pact until legislation monitoring all cross-strait agreements has been passed

May 2016 Since 20th May 2016 Ing-wen Tsai has begun her presidency and claimed that the relationship between Taiwan and China in the next four years will remain steady

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 96

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Although the current Taiwan-China relation is not as warm as before the number of flight between these countries is higher than between Hong Kong and China

No of Destinations in China 2017 No of flights to China 2017

1178

1312

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

HK

Taiwan

47

71

46

55

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

HK

Taiwan

No of destinations between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

No of flights between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

Unit FlightsweekUnit Destinations

Source NRI based on the Civil Aeronautics Administration of the MOTC ROC(Taiwan) and Airport Authority Hong Kong

The estimation is based on the public release the of Civil Aviation Administration of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 97

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 98

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

Following 8 areas compose major office districts in Taipei City

Major office areas in Taipei City

Hsin YiWorld Trade Centerbull Redeveloped under the Hsin Yi Development Plan Area with the

highest office rent level in Taipeibull Highly convenient due to the large concentration of administrative

financial trade exhibitory leisure and residential functionsbull Offices of global companies such as IBM and Microsoft located

Neihu Science Park districtbull The area Government aims to develop as a

science park districtbull Holding a large concentration of IT industry

headquartersbull Its traffic convenience has improved due to the

extension of MRT

Dun Hua NMinshengbull Having the second largest concentration of

luxury offices (Hsin Yi area is the largest) and being home to many financial service industries

bull Traffic convenience significantly improved after the SongShan airport became an international airport

Dunnanbull Holding a large number of well-known companies and foreign firmsbull Holding many financial companies as well as many traditional

industriesbull With its traffic convenience having developed to be a complex of

residential and commercial area

Songjiang Nanjingbull Area with the highest office density in Taipeibull Holding a large number of offices of Japanese

firms as well as traditional industries financial services and travel industries

Taipei station areabull Area centering Taipei station where the lines of

Taiwan Railways MRT and the High Speed Rail intersect

bull The first area in Taipei City where offices were developed with a large concentration of financial insurance industries and government institutions

Taipei station

area

Hsin YiWorld Trade

Center

Zhong Shan Northbull A large concentration of offices commercial

facilities and hotelsbull Many offices of Japanese firms are also

located

Taipei SongShanAirport

Nanjing Fuxingbull A class offices are concentrated in this area

providing comprehensive commercial financial services

bull The opening of MRT Songshan-Xindian Line in 2014 has made making journeys even more convenient

Zhon

gSh

an N

orth

Song

jiang

Nan

jing

Dun

Hua

M

ings

heng

Dun

nan

NeihuScience

Park district

Fusi

ng N

anjin

g

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 99

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

A number of great office buildings were completed in 2014 in Zhong Shan and Nan Gang district and thus more than 40000 tsubo of office spaces were provided In the meanwhile the office demand in Taipei grow Consequently there is a downward trend in the vacancy rate of office buildings which was below 7 in Q4 2016

By the end of 2017 lsquoTaipei Nan Shan Plazarsquo around Taipei 101World Trade Center Station and the headquarter of Taiwan Cooperative Bank around Nanjing Fuxing Station will be completed and thus 70000 tsubo of new office spaces will be available As a result the vacancy rate of office buildings may remain high

Office vacancy rate rose to more than 9 in 2015

Supply of new offices and vacancy rates in Taipei City

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16New supply (left axis) Vacancy Rate (right axis)Completion of Taipei 101

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Completion of FargloryFinancial Center

The headquarter buildings of Taiwan Cooperative Bank and China Trust were completed

Area

of n

ew s

uppl

y (P

ing)

Vaca

ncy

rate

()

Source NRI based on the Taiwan real estate yearbookNote The bar chart indicates the total area of annual new supply

New office buildings under

construction

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 100

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The average A-class office rental prices of CBD in Taipei is NTD2385 per tsuboper month (around yen8603 per tsubo per month)

Overview of major office areas (Q2 2017)

District Supply floor space (Tsubo)

A-class office Vacancy rate

()

B-class office Vacancy rate

()

A-class office avg rent

(NTDTsubomonth)

B-class office avg rent

(NTD Tsubo month)

Taipei station district 60310 55 15 2200 1706

Chung Shan North district 32932 -- 47 -- 1747

Songjiang Nanjing district 260955 182 84 1995 1762

Minsheng Dun Hua N district 262776 90 55 2277 1755

Dun HuaJen-Ai district 175763 70 42 2450 1787

Xinyi district 311328 102 31 3001 1721

Average rent 2385 NTDTsubomonth

Source NRI based on CBRE data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 101

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The number of office construction license issuance decreased significantly in the first half year of 2016 Accordingly the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

The number of construction license issuance has reduced since 2014 and thus the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

Source NRI based on statistics by the CPAMI ROC(Taiwan)

Number of office construction license issuance and total floor space licensed for construction in Taipei City

444080

926739

544258

207831

314769

461971 438809 416413 394913

1123336

556589

364330

273704

542545

408558 416577

116354 -

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Floor area squares (right asix)

License amount(left axis)

Jan-Jul

No

of c

onst

ruct

ion

licen

se is

sued

Tota

l hou

ses

spac

e of

con

stru

ctio

n lic

ense

issu

ed (m

2 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 102

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The existing offices in Taipei metropolitan are mainly located in central Taipei The outer metropolitan region such as Zin-Ban Fuchung Area and Nankang Area have been regenerated in the

recent years Accordingly the number of new office buildings has increased in these areas

Three new CBDs around central Taipei have been developed recently and thus the supply of commercial buildings is predicted to increase

TaipeiMain Sta

XimenArea

DunpeiAreaNanjing E

Rd Area

XinyiArea

NankangArea

Zin-BanFuchung

AreaFar EsternMemorialHospital

Area

Taipei City

DunnanArea

Existing Office Area

New Office Area

Zin-Ban Fuchung Areabull Rent 1300NTDTsubobull Zin-Ban Special Zone is located around

Banqiao station which is a terminal station of TRA MRT Taiwan-HSR

bull The highest office in Shinipei City ldquoFar Eastern Buildingrdquo(50F) has been opened in Jul 2013

MRT Far Estern Memorial Hospital Areabull Rent1200 NTDTsubobull New area of office with almost bran-

new officebull The most famous office of this area

is T-park built by FEG Group

Nankang Areabull Rent1200 -1300 NTDTsubobull This Area is expected as a new CBD of

Taipei because of being a terminal station of TSHR and 2 lines of MRT

bull Numerous offices have been and will be constructed in this area

Shinpei City

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 103

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 104

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

Since Taoyuan has been designated as a special municipality the population of it growth dramatically The Taipei Metropolis is reshaped where 40 of total population live in it

The location and population (2015) of Taipei City Keelung City and Shinpei City

Taipei CityPopulation 269 million

Keelung City Prpulation 037 million

Shinpei City Population 397 million

Taoyuang City Population 217 million

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 105

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a significant population growth in West Taipei Metropolitan area especially in West Shinipei City

Population Changes in Taipei City and Shinipei City over the last 5 years (2011-2015)

Shinpei City

TaoyuanCity

Keelung City

Greater Taipei Area

Taipei CityNew-Town regionDanshui

Linkou

Sanxia

MRT development

region

LegendAvg annual growth rate

-2 le CAGR lt -1-1 le CAGR lt 00 le CAGR lt 11 le CAGR lt 22 le CAGR lt 3

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 106

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The population of East and West Shinipei City and the central Taoyuan City has increased greatly which lead to soaring property prices in these areas

CAGR of the Land Price of Residential District in Taipei Metropolitan over the last 5 years (2013~2017)

Legend

0 le CAGR lt 2

2 le CAGR lt 4

4 le CAGR lt 6

6 le CAGR lt 8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 107

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The construction of MRT is one of the causes of the accelerating urban sprawl

MRT construction status around Taipei Metropolitan Area

【Distance from Taipei City 10km】

【Distance from Taipei City 5km】Wugu

Taishan

Xinzhuang

Luzhou

Banqiao

Zhonghe

Xindian

Muzha

Nangang

Neihu

Xizhi

Danshui

Beitou

Dazhi

Sanchong

Danshui

Xin-beitou

Luzhou

New Taipei Industrial Park

YongningDingpu

Fu Jen UnivHuilong

Sanchong

Nanshijiao

Jingan

GutingCKS Memorial Hall

Zimen

MinquanW Rd

Taipei Main

Station

Taipei Zoo

Songshan

Taipei NangangExhibition Center

SongshanAirport

Dapinglin

Xiaobitan

Xindian

To TaoyuanAirport

Banqiao

Elephant Mt

ZhongxiaoXinsheng

Shulin

Line Section Year opened

Neihu-Muzha Line

Zhongshan Junior High School hArr Taipei Zoo Mar 1996

Zhongshan Junior High School hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Jul 2009

Danshui Line Danshui hArr Taipei Main Station Mar 1997

Zhonghe Line Guting hArr Nanshijiao Dec 1998

Xindian Lian Taipei Main Station hArr Xindian Nov 1999

Nangang-Banqiao Line

Longshan Temple hArr Taipei City Hall Aug 1999

Longshan Temple hArr Xinpu Aug 2000

Taipei City Hall hArr Kunyang Dec 2000

Xinpu hArr Yongning May 2006

Kunyang hArr Nangang Dec 2008

Yongning hArr Dingpu Dec 2014

Nangang hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Feb 2011

Luzhou Line Luzhou hArr Zhongxiao Xinsheng Nov 2010

XinzhuangLine

Fu Jen Univ hArr Daqiaotou Jan 2012

Zhongxiao Xinsheng hArr Guting Sep 2012

Huilong hArr Fu Jen Univ Mar 2013

Xinyi Line CKS Memorial HallhArr Elephant Mt Dec 2013

Songshan Line Songshan hArr Ximen Nov 2014

TaoyuanAirport MRT Taipei Main Station hArr Jhongli Mar 2017

Circular Line New Taipei Industrial Park hArr Dapinglin Jun 2018

Wanta Line CKS memorial hall hArr Huilong Dec 2020

Source)NRI based on the MRT Construction Dep Of Taipei City Gov

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 108

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The price of new properties in the centre of Taipei is over 1 million per tsubo And luxury real estate price in Xinyi District even reaches 3 million per tsubo

47-58

24-36

40-56

75-105

60-83

42-65

34-4838-52

43-52

90-13064-8230-40

40-6075-105

74-95

75-106

125-290

34-45

26-40

45-62

48-63

72-107

85-150120-166

113-145

48-75

87-130

45-60

125-285

88-140

72-125

85-140

46-5660-80

88-12550-65

42-63

55-78

Unit housing prices at major areas near MRT station in Taipei City and Shinipei City (Unit10000 NTD Tsubo)

Source NRI based on My Housingcom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 109

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The property price had increased steady since 2003 and reached the apex in 2013 And after that the housing price drops

Transition of housing price index

Source NRI based on Cathay Real Estatersquos Housing Index quarterly report

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Taipei City

Shinpei City

Taoyuang amp Hsinchu Region

Hou

sing

pric

e in

dex Financial Crisis

2011 Practice of Specifically Selected Goods and Services Tax Act2012 Practice of Registering the Actual Transaction Price of Real Estate2016 Practice of Consolidated Housing and Land Taxes

Note2010=100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prices of 2017 Q2Taipei City 8199 thsdTsuboShinpei City 3459 thsd TsuboTaoyuang City 2137 thsd Tsubo

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 110

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a downward trend in the number of issued housing construction license of Taipei Shinipei and Taoyuan City and thus the growth rate of new buildings are expected lower than before

While several mega infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the MRT system will be delivered in Shinipei and TaoyuanCity soon and besides Urban Regeneration Act will be modified to make the regeneration process more efficient Therefore housing supply is expected to grow in the long-term

There has been a downward trend in the number of construction license issuance recently in major cities of North Taiwan

The Number of housing construction license issuance

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Taipei City Shinpei City Taoyuang City

(No) (No)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Case No

Householde No

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

NoteThe statistic number of year 2017 only involve that from Jan to Jul

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 111

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The level of the average rental price is extremely low in Taipei City and Shinipei City and cap rates of residential buildings in these two cities ranges between 2 and 35

Cap rates of properties in Taipei City and Shinpei City

Location

Taipei City Shinpei City

Zhongshan Dist(Near MRT Shuanglian Sta)

Neihu Dist(Near MRT Songshan Sta)

Xinyi Dist(Near MRT Taipei 101 World

Trade Center Sta)

Banqiao Dist(Near MRT Baqiao Sta)

Layout 2LDK 2LDK 2LK 2LDK

Area(tsubo) 21 28 25 26

Age(year) 17 11 3 8

Rent(NTDYear) 29 thousand 32 thousand 87 thousand 41 thousand

Price(NTD) 1237 million 1509 million 2580 million 1672 million

Cap rate () 234 212 195 245

Source NRI based on interviews with owners material by 591com etc

Residential building indicate the properties that above 11 floor and have the elevator

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 112

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 113

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

International tourists visiting the Taiwan are composed of 50 Japanese and Chinese Recently the government has planned to attract more tourists from southeast Asia which is regarded as the third

biggest market after Japan and China

The tourist reduces caused by the relationship between two counties to be at a standstill While Taiwan Government is planning to attract tourists from Southeast Asia

The number of foreign tourists to Taiwan (By place of residence)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mainland

Japan

Hong Kong

Southeast Asia

Others Deregulation of group toursof mainland Chinese

Deregulation of individual toursof mainland Chinese

Japan190 million

5058

South-East Asia165 million

28312978

2248

29503378 3520

37163845

4395

5567

6087

7056

8016

9910

2624

10439

10690

Mainland351 million

Hong Kong161 million

Fore

ign

tour

ists

am

ount

(tho

usan

d pe

rson

)

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 114

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of hotel rooms has been increased since 2010 and the number of that reaches 11 thousand and the occupancy rate of accommodation remain high which exceeds 70

The number of guest rooms and occupancy rates of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Note Tourist hotels are hotels that meet the criteria set by the Tourism Bureau of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications and are broken down into international tourist hotels and general tourist hotels according to their levels There are 27 international tourist hotels and 17 standard tourist hotels in Taipei at the end of December 2016

9202 8879 8324 8013 7786 7738 7898 8323 8313 8313 8403 8834 8834

1306 12631263 1263 1383 1357

19742040 2040 2275 2330

2386 2386

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

InternationalTourist Hotels

StandardTourist Hotels

+85+50 -01 +23 +14

0

No

of g

uest

room

7202 7668 7694 7239 6931 7382 7566 7933 7869 8043 7867Std Tourist Hotels

OccupancyRate

6930 7495 7532 7216 7114 7564 7540 7772 7590 7742 7495Intrsquol Tourist Hotels

7722

7696

7689

7111

+45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 115

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of tourists visiting Taipei increases and the hotel prices rise accordingly

The average price of guest rooms of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Aver

age

pric

e of

gue

st ro

oms

(NTD

per

nig

ht)

34113565

38014015 4050

37073848

41074394

4713 4831 4811 4761

1848 1893 1986 2013 2039 21502370

26722931

3133

34723671 3703

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

International tourist hotelStandard tourist hotel

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 116

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 117

(Reference)

Regional Map of Singapore

Core Central Region and Rest of Central Region

NORTH WEST

SOUTHWEST CENTRAL

SINGAPORE

NORTH EAST SOUTH

EAST

Woodlands North Business Park

International Business Park(Jurong Area)

Jurong Island

Changi Business ParkChangi Air HubBedok

Tampines

OrchardSomerse

The MainCommercial AreaIndustrial Park

BugisJurong EastJurong West

DowntownMarina Bay

Core Central Region is postal districts 9 10 11Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa(BlueYellow and Pink)Rest of Central Region is the area within red line except Core Central RegionOutside Central Region is outside the red line of the area

SourceURA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 118

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 119

Population Trend

Population growth for non-residents and permanent residents began to grow rapidly from 1990s while the growth of the citizen base is largely attributed to permanent residents taking up citizenship in Singapore

Singaporersquos open immigration policy has allowed population to increase very rapidly but growth is expected to be moderate with tightening of immigration policy

Population in Singapore (lsquo000)

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics Board amp UN Population Data

Forecast rarrlarrActual

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-Residents

PR

Citizens

Total

A balanced moderate immigration policy is assumed for estimation of population growth from 2016-2050Non Residents includes population residing in Singapore for long-term but do not hold PR or Citizenship (eg EP Worker Pass etc)

CAGR(1970-2015)

99

39

17

28

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 120

Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP

Singapore has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world and far surpasses neighboring countries in the region

GDP per capita is also expected to continue growing from 2017-2020

Source NRI based on IMF

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Nominal GDP per Capita (USD)

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 121

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

Despite the strong GDP per capita figures Singaporersquos growth rate remains volatile due to the nature of its open economy

Effects of business cycles exerts a more pronounced effect on GDP growth rate as the Singapore economy is closely linked to the global trade cycle

Source NRI based on IMF data

Real GDP growth rate of major economies ()

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SingaporeThailand

MalaysiaIndonesia

Dot-com Bubble Burst

Global Financial

Crisis

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Actual Standard Deviation

(2000-2016)

09242542

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 122

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

This is not surprising given that net exports of goods amp services constitute more than one quarter of the Singaporersquos economy

Both domestic amp external consumption (net exports of goods amp services) are volatile and could potentially exhibit relatively large swings in periods of economic growth and recession

Source NRI based Singapore Statistics Board

Share of GDP by Expenditure ()

23 26 27 24 22 25 26 26

2926 26 27 28 27 26 25

10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11

37 36 36 37 37 37 37 37

2011

2 20 3 3

2009 2010 2012

2

2016

345169 376826322361 358517 406242390185 408686

1 0

281090

20142013 2015Net Exports Of Goods And Services

Changes In InventoriesPrivate Consumption ExpenditureGovernment Consumption Expenditure

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 123

Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate stayed in the negative range in 2015 -2016 period as a result of declining oil prices etc but expected to recover in 2017

Inflation rate is expected to stay rise between 05 - 15 in 2017 based on forecasts by economists from various investment banks This will be due to a rise in energy costs as well as fading of the temporary disinflationary effects of budgetary measures

Source NRI based on IMF data

Annual y-o-y change in Singaporersquos CPI ()

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 124

Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate

The SGD has generally been on an appreciating trend being adjusted and watched very closely by the central bank as a tool to keep prices stable

The Singapore Dollar does not exhibit much volatility as it operates under a managed float system within an undisclosed band pegged to an undisclosed basket of currencies

Source NRI based Monetary Authority of Singapore

S$ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER)

Appreciation

Depreciation

S$NEER reflects exchange rates against a basket of currencies instead of any single currencyIndex Jan 1999 = 100

05

055

06

065

07

075

08

085

98

103

108

113

118

123

128

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD

SG

D

S$N

EER

IND

EX

USDSGD

S$NEER

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 125

Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance

In spite of the relatively high level of government debt Singapore continues to be a net creditor country with AAA ratings from international credit rating agencies

Borrowings by the Singapore are matched by even higher levels of assets and the country does not run any fiscal deficits

The government is instead borrowing in order to issue debt securities which are required in the domestic bond market to provide a risk-free benchmark against other corporate debt securities

Ratio of Government Debt to GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Source NRI based on IMF data

Ratio of Government Primary Net LendingBorrowing to GDP ()

Forecast rarrlarrActual

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2017 2019 20212015 20182012 201620142009 2011 20202013

Singapore

IndonesiaMalaysia

Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 126

Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks

Consistently ranked among the top 10 countries with the lowest public perception of corruption political risks in Singapore remains low

Low political risks is one of the factors in Singapore that have contributed to a conducive environment for business amp investment

Source NRI based on Transparency International Data

Trend of Transparency International Corruption Perception Index among selected ASEAN Countries (2016)

Top 10 countries of International Corruption Perception Index(Higher ranking indicates lower risk)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

A lower score indicates greater negative perception of public sector corruption

RANK 2014 2015 2016

1 DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK

2 NEW ZEALAND FINLAND NEW ZEALAND

3 FINLAND SWEDEN FINLAND

4 NORWAY NEW ZEALAND SWEDEN

5 SWITZERLAND NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND

6 SINGAPORE NORWAY NORWAY

7 NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND SINGAPORE

8 INDONESIA SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS

9 LUXEMBORG CANADA CANADA

10 CANADA GERMANY GERMANY

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 127

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 128

Office market- Geographic Area

76 of the existing office is located at CBD area Singapore government extends the Central Business District towards Marina Bay to support the demand of quality office spaces

Major Office Area in Singapore Central Business District

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority Master Plan Mapletree Commercial Trust

Site area (ha)

Total DevelopmentGFA (mil sqm)

Total Office GFA (mil sqm)

31 177 11

85 415 282 (estimated)

24 16 11 (estimated)

Raffles Place

Extension of existing financial district

Recent developments

Office Area in Singapore2015

CBD Core sub-market

50

Fridge CBD26

Decentralised sub-market

24

bull Existing central business district is located at Raffles Place Shenton Way and Tanjong Pagar

bull To position Singapore as one of the leading financial hub government plans to double the size of the existing financial center by extending towards Marina Bay

bull Recent developments is expected to provide more than 11 million sqm of premium office space upon completion

CBD Core sub-market Raffles Place Shenton Way Marina Centre Marina BayFringe CBD Tanjong Pagar Beach Road City Hall Orchard RoadDecentralized sub-market Alexandra HarbourFront Thomson Novena Tampines River Valley

Raffles Place

Shenton Way

TanjongPagar

Marina Bay

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 129

Office market- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate decreased gradually from 2015Q2 to 2016Q2 It has started to increase since 2016Q3 when major office developments were completed

Office Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

7456 7455

7408

7553 7575 7583

7580

7559 7536

7563

7664 7730

7761

7837

10 96

84

102 10298

9695 92 91

104111

116124

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7250

7350

7450

7550

7650

7750

7850

7950

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

rsquo000 sq m nett

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 130

Office market- Price and Rental Index

Office rent has been in downwards trend since 1Q15 due to significant increase in supply in 4Q14 The capital value of office space stagnates due to the downward pressure of the declining rental

Price and Rental Index of Office Space in Central Region

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Price Index Rental Index

Index

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Note 1) The price indices are compiled from information in caveats (A legal document lodged by a purchaser to protect

her his interests after an option to purchased is exercised or a Sales amp Purchase Agreement is signed) lodged at the option stage with the Singapore Land Registry The price in 4Q98 are used as the base reference price of the index

2) Rental Index of office space are obtained from Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS)

bull The Singapore office rental market performed well in 2014 due to tight market conditions However office rental growth has been subdued since the first quarter of 2015

bull Price of office property had been stagnant since the first quarter of 2015 and eventually fall due to underperforming rental market and increasing supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 131

Office market- Future Supply

A sharp rise in office space supply is expected to outstrip the growth in demand in the coming years The pressure on vacancy rate is expected to rise

Pipeline Supply of Office Space in Singapore

367

185

20

138

36 400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 gt2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Property Total Office GFA (lsquo000 sqf)

Expected year of completion

Vision Exchange 475 January 2017

Oxley Tower 130 January 2017

UIC Building 276 April 2017

Marina One 1800 April 2017

Frasers Tower 690 April 2018

Robinson Tower 195 April 2018

Paya Lebar Quarter 8835 December 2018

Central Boulevard 1000 Q2 2020

Golden Shoe Car Park 1000 Q1 2021

Source Corporate Locations

bull Out of the office supply from 2015 Q2 to 2018 Q4 528 is located in the Core CBD 311 in the Fridge CBD and the remaining in the Decentralized sub-markets

bull Around one-fifth of the future supply is sold on a strata-titled basis it means more investment opportunity for investors that are looking for smaller and more affordable individual unit of office space

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 132

Office market- Cap rate

Cap rate of office in CBD area in 2016 is around 38 in average

2016 Capitalization Rate of Office in CBD

3938 39 42 39

3838 38 38 38

00

10

20

30

40

50

Cap rate ()

Source CapitaLand Commercial Trust 2016 annual report Keppel REIT 2016 annual report

REIT Asset Type InvestmentProperties

CapitalandCommercial Trust

bull Office (70)bull Retail (18)bull Hotel and

Convention Centre (12)

By gross rental income

bull Capital Towerbull Six Battery Roadbull One George Streetbull Raffles City Towerbull CapitaGreenbull Twenty Ansonbull HSBC Building

Keppel REIT bull Office bull Ocean Financial Centre

bull Marina Bay Financal Centre

bull One Raffles Quaybull Bugis Junction

Towers

Office REIT in Singapore

bull Capitaland Commercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust Suntec REIT OUE Commercial REIT are the major office REIT in Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 133

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 134

Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling

CAGR of condominiums market is much higher than that of HDB Foreigners cannot purchase of HDB according to Residential Property Act imposing restrictions on foreigners in

1973

More households stay in condominiums and other apartments over the years while the percentage of households living in HDB flats is slowly going down in the last 5 years

9359 9437 9484 9395 9618 9652 9811 10115

1178 1320 1269 1399 1437 1618 1708 1824

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HDB Condominiums amp Other Apartments

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics

Number of Households by Type of Dwelling in Singapore

(lsquo000)

HDBHousing amp Development Board public housing in Singapore

CAGR 562

CAGR 098

Condominiums

HDB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 135

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Around 50 of transactions for units outside Central Region dropped from 2012 to 2014 Several property cooling measures such as introducing 60 cap from 80 on the Total Debt Serving Ratio (DSR)

and 30 cap on the Mortgage Servicing Ratio(MSR) in 2013 badly affected the number of sales transactions

Dramatically dropped the demand for Private Residential Units since 2013 due to property cooling measures

(units)

Source NRI based on URA

Number of Sales transactions for Private Residential Units by area

4832 5028 3695 1976 1859

8943 90976861

4058 3828

1886523748

12163

6813 8430

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Core Central Region Rest Central Region Outside Central Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 136

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Minimum Cash Down Payment is getting higher from 10 to 25 when you purchase the 2nd and subsequent Residential property

Foreigners have an obligation to pay 15 ABSD of sales price of residential

Drastic drop of transactions of Private Residential is due to strict restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013 in addition to introduction of higher cap on DSR and MSR

1st Housing 2nd Housing 3rd Housing

LTV Limit 80 or 60 60 or 40rArr50 or 30

60 or 40rArr40 or 20

Minimum Cash Down Payment 5 (for LTV of 80) 10 (for LTV of 60) 10rArr25 10rArr25

BSD1 on first $1800002 on next $1800003 for the remainder

ABSD(Singapore Citizens) Not applicable Not applicable rArr7 3rArr10

ABSD(Foreigners) 10rArr15

LTV Loan to Value BSDhellipBuyerrsquos Stamp DutyABSDhellipAdditional Buyerrsquos Stamp DutyIf the loan tenure is more than 30 years or extends past age 65

Change of Governmental Restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013

Source NRI based on IRAS and MAS

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 137

Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate

From 2013 to 2014 vacant rate got dramatically high compared to the change from 2011 to 2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Occupied Vacant

5061

53

7989 86

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Current Stock and Vacancy of Private Residential Units (Including Executive Condominium)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 138

Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property

Sales Price Index has gradually dropped in 2013 due to higher vacancy rate over the years

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4

Sales Index of Private Residential

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 139

Residential market ndashFuture Supply

The rise in Private Residential Unites can be seen in the next years The number of new Private Residential units seems to decrease at Core Central Region

The supply for Outside Central Region is expected to be the largest for the next 5 years

1850

3578

727 661480

3862

3820

3233 3591

514

4550

7180

54963137

4099

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Core Central Region Rest of Central Region Outside Central Region

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Supply in the Pipeline of Private Residential Units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 140

Residential market-Cap Rate

Capitalization rate has been dropping due to the higher vacancy rate

29 29

24

28

24 2321 21

27 2724

2826

2422 22

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

()

Claymore HillAdmore Park(Upper Class) River Valley(Middle Class)

Capitalization Rate for Upper class and Middle class

Source NRI based on Japan Association of Real Estate Appraisers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 141

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 142

Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate

Vacancy Rate is getting higher which causes gradual increase of availability of floor space after Q1 of 2015

56335698

57175766

58185914

59485973

59495971

5990

6019

60366046

6017

603553

45

58 5965

58

6872 70 72 73

7884

75 77 81

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5400

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

20133Q

20134Q

20141Q

20142Q

20143Q

20144Q

20151Q

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Available Floor Space Vacancy Rate

Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate of Retail

(000 sq m)

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 143

Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space

Those prices were stable until 2014 but due to slowdown of demand for retail space vacancy rate is increasing and affects both of these index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space is going down affected by the higher vacancy rate in every quarter in 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Price Index Rental Index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space in Central Region

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 144

Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore

Thanks to internet accessibility high penetration of mobile devices and strong governmental support for online retailers in Singapore attract consumers to shopping online instead of going all the way to malls

Consumers previously shopped at brick-and-mortal stores now prefer to shift shopping online retailers which causes lower demand for physical shopping spaces

2611

3533

25542338

1446 1563

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Average Top 20 Top 21~40

Top 41~60

Top 61~80

Top 81~100

(SGD)

2015 2025(Estimate)Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Singapore 48 21 81 67Malaysia 91 11 152 54Thailand 113 08 202 55Vietnam 67 06 160 47Philippines 100 05 206 47Indonesia 238 06 575 80

E-Commerce market size in SEA and monthly average amount of Online shopping in Singapore by Income group

Source NRI based on Google Temasek and Department of Statistics of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 145

Retail market-CAP Rate

South East Region has highest Cap Rate according to the CAP Rate of the main malls in Singapore

Retail Capitalization Rate by Core Central Region and Other Regions

50

52

54

56

58

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Central Core Region South EastNorth West South West

Source NRI based on Capital Land Frasers Centerpoiint and SPH REIT

Central Core RegionJunction 8AtriumBugis+ Clarke Quay Paragon Wisma Atria Ngee Ann City Bugis Junction Plaza Singapura

South EastTampines Mall Bedok Point Changi City Point

North WestBukit Panjang Plaza Causeway Point Northpoint Lot One Shopperrsquos Mall Yew Tee Point

South WestJcube Clementi MallData for 2010 and 2011 are not available because Jcubeand Clementi Mall was open in 2011 and 2012 respectively

List of Malls for Capitalization Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 146

Retail market- Future Supply

This is in line with governmentrsquos strategy ldquoWork-Live-Playrdquo solutions decentralizing working and living function to Outside Central Region

New retail supply will be suburbs especially Outside Central Region and large proportion of OCR retail will be in the East

Central34

South East30

NorthWest23

North East13

Project name and location Area Name of Developer Gross Floor Area

Expected year of final TOP

Hotelretail development at Airport Boulevard

SouthEast

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

90000 sq m

na

Northpoint City at Yishun Central 1

North West

North Gem Development Pte LtdFC North Gem Trustee Pte Ltd

39050 sq m

2018

Additionsalterations and extension to existing Singapore Post Centre at Eunos Road 8

South East

Singapore Post Limited 25000 sq m

na

Hillion Mall at Jelebu Road North West

Sim Lian JV (BP Retail) Pte LtdSim Lian JV (BP) Pte Ltd

20490 sq m

na

Officeretail development for Changi Airport Terminal 4 at Airport Boulevard

South East

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

19710 sq m

na

Proportion of Future Retail Supply by locations in 2016-2018 and the 5 largest pipelines in Singapore

Source NRI based on URA IE Singapore DBS

( Based on the sq m)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 147

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 148

Logistics Space- Geographic Area

Most of the warehouse space is located in the eastern and western part of Singapore

Source Google map NRI created based on public information

Hankyu Hanshin Express Singapore ( 1 )

Company name(Number of warehouse)【Legend】

Sumitomo Warehouse (Singapore) Pte Ltd ( 2 )

Sankyu (Singapore) PTE LTD ( 6 )

KEPPEL TampT ( 5 )

MAPALE TREE ( 50 )

SCHENKER SINGAPORE (PTE) LTD ( 11 )

Kintetsu World Express ( 2 )Acsendas ( 23 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 149

Logistics Space- Demand Trend

Manufacturing activities has been expanding in the past 13 months Industrial space market is expected to improve gradually

Singapore Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) Container Traffic of Singapore Port

PMI

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb-

15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb-

16

Apr

-16

Jun-

16

Aug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb-

17

Apr

-17

Jun-

17

Aug

-17

Note Singapore PMI measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 400 industrial companiesSource Singapore Institute of Purchasing amp Materials Management (SIPMM)

279299

259284

299316

326339

309 309

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

million TEUs

Source Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 150

Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate reduced gradually from 2016Q3 to 2017Q1 but increased in the most recent quarter following the higher rate of increase in warehouse space supply

Warehouse Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

79 82 83 84 85 86 87 89 91 93 94 95 96 101

89

115

96

82

100

84

75

86

96

110 109

103101

119

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Thousands sq m

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 151

Logistics Space- Rental Index

Warehouse rental is on the downward trend in recent years

Rental Index of Warehouse in Singapore

Index

Note 1) Before 4th Quarter 2014 the rental index is computed based on transactions in the Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 the scope of the rental index is expanded to

include transactions outside Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 and 1st Quarter 2016 the weights used are fixed using 2012 and 2015 transaction values respectively

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 152

Logistics Space- Future Supply

There will be a total of 084 million sqm GFA of warehouse space expected to be completed by 2021 and a surge in supply in 2017

Pipeline Supply of Warehouse in Singapore

394

162135 140

130

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Project Description Name of Developer GFA (sq m)

Expected year of completion

Poh Tiong Choon Logistics Hub at Pandan Road

Poh Tiong ChoonLogistics Ltd 50940 2017

Warehouse Development at Benoi Road GKE Warehousing amp Logistics Pte Ltd 39760 2017

Warehouse Development at PioneerRoad

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 71680 2017

Warehouse Development at JalanAhmad Ibrahim Tuas Avenue 1

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 44310 2018

JTC Logistics Hub Gul Circle JTC Corporation 95310 2019

Warehouse Development at Tuas South Avenue 14

Diamond Land Pte Ltd 65230 2020

Major Projects in the Pipeline as of 2017 Q2

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 153

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 154

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)

Visitor arrivals into Singapore has been increasing steadily since the 2008 global recession with numbers reaching stable levels in recent years

The increase in visitors can be attributed to increasing flight capacities into Singapore especially new direct connecting flights to secondary Chinese cities as well as an increase low-cost carriers (LCC) within SEA region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore (millions) (by mode of transport) (2007-2016)

103 10197

116

132

145

156151 152

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Land

Sea

Air

Total

CAGR 45 164

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 155

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)

Indonesia China Malaysia amp Australia constitute the top four largest countries for visitor numbers in Singapore

Visitor numbers from these countries have remained in the top four ranking boosted by the services of regional low cost-carriers in the region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Top visitors by nationalities () 2010-2014

197 1960 198 200 179

120 1400 146 114 138

87 850 8282 77

73 720 7271 69

523 507 502 533 537

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Indonesia China Malaysia Australia Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 156

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)

More than half of the visitors into Singapore are here for leisure purposes and 1 in 5 are here for business purposes

The high percentage of visitors coming to Singapore for leisure purposes suggests that initiatives to boost tourism in Singapore has been considerably successful in attracting visitors into the country

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Main Purpose of Visit () 2015

58 59 56

43

77

2013

1333

812 20

2115

6

10 8 10 9 9

Total Indonesia China Malaysia Australia

Leisure Business Others Not stated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 157

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)

Indeed though visitor numbers are relatively stable throughout the year they tend to peak during festive occasions or promotional periods

The peak from June to August can be attributed to the annual Great Singapore Sale an event organized by Singapore Tourism Bard amp Singapore Retailers Association to promote tourism in Singapore

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore

Great Singapore Sale

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20162013

2011

2009

F1 Grand Prix

End-of year

Holidays

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 158

Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply

While hotel room supply continues to increase each year post-recession occupancy rates have also stabilized staying close to 85 levels

Recent significant additions to hotel supply include Westin Singapore Marina Bay (2014) Sofitel So Singapore (2014) Holiday Inn Express (2014) amp Patina Hotel (2015)

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Available Room Nights (lsquo000) amp Occupancy Rate ()

84858686878685

81

76

12378

2010

11262

14241

2013

13118

10589

2015

15131

20142012

12451

2011

+54

2016

16162

2009

10875

2008

Average Occupancy Rate ()Available Room Nights

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 159

Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue

With the exception of luxury segment all other room segments are witnessing slight declines in room rates and RevPar

This downward pressure on rates and revenues is expected to continue as the influx of new hotel rooms continue for the next few years

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Average Room Rates by Room Segment (S$)Average Revenue per Available Room (RevPar) (S$) by Room Segment

4314 43594618 4491 4482

3014

2685 2668 2651 2612

1971 1906 1852 1749 1698

1107 1004 1098 1050 987

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

35183840

40433885 3812

2647

2307 2325 2282 2216

1708 1650 1573 1495 1453

940 846 878 833 777

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

Luxury - Includes hotels in the luxury segment and are predominantly in prime locations andor in historical buildings Upscale - Includes hotels in the upscale segment and are generally in prime locations or hotels with boutique positioning in prime or distinctive location Mid-Tier - Includes hotels in the mid-tier segment and are primarily located in prime commercial zones or immediately outlying areasEconomy - Includes hotels in the budget segment and are generally located in outlying areas

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 160

Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline

The hotel industry in Singapore braces itself for a large supply influx of new rooms with more than 2000 rooms slated to be completed by end of 2017 alone

The influx of new rooms is the greatest since the completion of the two integrated resorts in Marina Bay Sands (MBS) amp Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in 2010 and 2011 respectively

Source NRI based on various sources Straits Times TODAY etc

Source NRI based on Urban Redevelopment Authority

Number of Hotel Rooms in the Pipeline Selected RecentFuture Hotel Developments (2017)

60908

2565

2464

1331

182

342

582344

58000

60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber o

f hot

el ro

oms

Existing Under Construction

Planned (Written Permission) Planned (Provisional Permission)

ExpectedCompletion Year Hotel Name No of

Rooms

2017 JW Mariott Hotel Singapore South Beach 634

2017 The Warehouse Hotel 37

2017 Ascott Orchard Singapore 220

2017 Park Hotel Farrer Park 300

2017 Santa Grand Hotel Boat Quay 41

2017 Sofitel Singapore City Centre 223

2017 Andaz Singapore 342

2017 Courtyard by Marriott Singapore Novena 250

2017 The Duxton Club 49

2017 YOTEL Singapore 600

2017 Novotel Singapore on Stevens 254

CAGR 31

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 161

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 162

REIT Market

S-REIT has grown rapidly since the successful launch of the first REIT in 2002 S-REIT market capitalization has now attained a scale of USD 556 billion

Market Capitalization of REIT In USD Billion 2002- 2017

There are 38 listed REITs as of the end of June 2017

Source NRI based on Capital IQ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 163

REIT Market

Recent yield spread between S-REIT has also stayed close to 5

Although the S-REIT dividend yield rose sharply in 2009 due to fears that the mortgage crisis would spread to Singapore it has remained at approximately 7 since then

Source NRI based on Bloomberg

Average S-REIT dividend yield and spread with 10-year Singapore government bond

()

0

5

10

15

20

25

Spread 10-year SGB Yield Average Dividend Yield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 164

REIT Market

Retail Industrial and Office REIT are the major type of REIT in Singapore S-REITs also diversify into residential hotel amp resort healthcare and data center industry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized

Market Capitalization of REIT by Asset TypeIn USD Billion 2003- 2017

Asset Composition (2017)

SpecializedHealthcareHospitalityResidentialDiversified

Office

Industrial

Retail

18348232

122

160

245

306

1 Office1 Industrial 2 Retail

1 Healthcare1 Hospitality1 Residential1 Diversified3 Office4 Industrial 5 Retail

2 Healthcare1 Hospitality2 Residential1 Diversified3 Office7 Industrial 7 Retail

1 Specialized2 Healthcare5 Hospitality1 Residential4 Diversified6 Office9 Industrial 9 Retail

Number of REIT by asset type

Source Capital IQ

Chart1

Retail
Industrial
Office
Diversified
Residential
Hospitality
Healthcare
Specialized
4919
2929
0
0
0
0
0
0
12344
6189
5458
0
0
0
0
0
24064
15716
7312
9248
0
0
0
0
35082
20048
14636
11758
3173
0
0
0
72317
42532
34987
1854
7953
1223
1446
0
6508
3439
26179
1561
762
10519
6422
0
4945
28821
20857
10018
3758
4861
5197
0
76738
47631
39742
17782
6188
1220
7522
0
104025
87777
5322
27407
12393
16405
13105
0
112013
93221
56364
24259
11898
1450
13616
0
130698
107712
68086
47917
15109
31961
17999
0
159443
115798
80495
64488
1741
4230
18342
0
163131
109375
75232
6225
16744
45395
18358
6831
168423
127015
82747
6425
13784
41719
19079
7627
172877
138636
90674
69255
18147
46492
18982
1031

Sheet1

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 165

REIT Market

S-REITs have geographically diversified portfolio with 36 of international asset

S-REIT Geographical Coverage by Asset ValueIn 2016

Singapore64

Hong Kong10

China6

Australia New

Zealand6

Japan South Korea

4

India3

Europe2

US1

Other Asia4

36 of the total asset value of Singapore REITs is contributed by foreign property asset

Overseas property assets are mainly located in Hong Kong China Australia and New Zealand

Geographically diversified portfolio is driven by these factorsbull Singapore-based REIT have to venture overseas market

due to the limited domestic real estate market Furthermore S-REIT is granted tax exemption on qualifying foreign-sources income from overseas property As of 2015 22 out of 34 S-REITs hold foreign real estate

bull Favorable tax environment in Singapore actively attracts foreign REIT to list in the country

Source DBS Bank

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 166

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 167

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 168

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population is around 66 million people Thailand is currently under military coup and the current reign of King Rama X started since October 2016

Source Department of Provincial Administration Official Statistics Registration Systems BMA Data Center The Bureau of Registration Administration Bank of Thailand Office of Ethnic Affairs National Real Estate Information Center

Country Name The Kingdom of Thailand

National Characteristic

Population 65931550 people (As of 2017)

Religion Buddhism (946) Islamism (42) Christianity (11) Hinduism Sikhism and Others (01) (As of 2014)

Ethnic Composition

Thai (987) Sino-Tibetan (08) Austroasiatic (03) Malayo-Polynesian (02) (As of 2012)

Political Structure

Political System Constitutional democracy

Head of State King Vajiralongkorn (King Rama X)

Head of Government Prime minister - General Prayut Chan-ocha

No of Ministries 20 ministries

Geographical Characteristic

Land Area 513208 kmsup2 (Japan = 377962 kmsup2)

Capital City Bangkok - Population 10765226 people (as of 2016)

Time Zone (UTC+0700) Bangkok Hanoi Jakarta

OthersCurrency Thai baht (100 Yen = 309084 Thai baht) (As of 10 April 2017)

Language Thai (Official language)

Overview of ThailandThailandrsquos map

Northern

NortheasternCentral

Eastern

West

South

Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 169

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos economy shows sign of recovery and is expected to expand continuously

Source IMF

14 17

-11

-54

42

-01

1520

03

12 10 1206 08

02 07 06

50 54

17

-07

75

08

72

27

09

29 32 30 33 32 31 30 30

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

Japan Thailand

It is expected that the growth of GDP of Thailand will be driven primarily from fiscal stimulus and tourist receipts The government policy about public investment in infrastructure advanced manufacturing and innovation-driven

projects recovery in services and private consumption could also underpin growth

GDP annual growth rate of Japan and Thailand in 2006-2022f

ForecastActual

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 170

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Service sector is a driver for GDP growth

GDP by Sector 2006-2015 (Current Value)

790 849 978 946 1138 1311 1422 1463 1330 1193

3299 3589 3843 37394325 4305 4625 4779 4878 4975

43124638

4886 4974

53465691

63106680 6996 7505

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector( as of 2015)

Services(5489)

CAGR 57

Industry(3639)

CAGR 42

Agriculture(872)

CAGR 42

Source World Bank Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 171

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Bangkok and vicinities have been the central of business in Thailand generating almost half of national GDP

Source Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

Gross Regional Product of Thailand 2006-2015

3915 4172 4380 4351 4774 4931 5377 5688 6027 6397

1481 1704 1812 1716

1966 2028 2255 2308

2392 2405

733 800 830 939

1055 1151 1278

1373 1312 1328

823 858

911 876

1069 1185

1163 1168 1141

1199

635 669

753 763

860 926

1102 1116 1100

1069

491 537

657 634

691 657

720 807 763

789

322 337

364 380

394 428

462 460 470

486

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities Eastern North Eastern Southern Northen Central Western

Eastern which ranks the second GDP generator is the special economic zone of the project Eastern Seaboard and the project Eastern Economic Corridor

Region( as of 2015)

Northeastern (971)

Eastern (1759)

Central (577)

Southern (877)

Northern (782)

Bangkok andvicinities (4679)

Western (356)

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 172

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos GDP per capita has been growing from 2006-2016 Among ASEAN it ranks the fourth after Singapore Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia

GDP per capita 2005-2016 ndash Thailand

128137

146 144160 167

182 189 191 197 204

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source IMF

52755

21497

9811

59403620 2978 2174 1865 1416 1235

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000THB thousands USD

GDP per capita 2016 ndash ASEAN countries

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 173

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Since flooding in Bangkok in 2011 interest rate has consistently declined to 150 and it is expected to stay at this level to boost Thai economic growth

Source Bank of Thailand

500

125150

487

212

504

583

272

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Rate T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 5 years T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 10 years

Rates at the end of month

Thailand interest rate in 2007-2017

Bank of Thailand announced to remain the implementation of the Expansionary Monetary Policy in order to strengthen Thailand economic situation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 174

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

THB had shown the depreciation against JPY after reaching the strongest point in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Exchange rate between THB to 100 JPY and THB to USD to THB in 2006-2017

Debt crisis in EuropeSubprime mortgage crisis in US Quantitative easing program implementation in Japan

3578

2907

3445

3048

2766

4104

2711

3128

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USD to THB 100 JPY to THB

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 175

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population has continually been aging and is expected to be aged society within 2025

National population by gender and age group in 2005 and 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Thailand 2005 Thailand 2015 Japan 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Source UN National Statistical Office

In 201518 of total population are 0-14 year age group and 10 are people over 65 years old It is predicted that within 2025 the proportion of age group of over 65 years will be 16 of total population defining

Thailand as aged society

(Thousands people)(Thousands people) (Thousands people)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 176

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

The number of households in Thailand is increasing while the family size tends to reduce The type of family changes from extend family to nuclear one

Thailand average household size in 2006-2015

Source Population and housing census Thailand National Real Estate Information Center

In 2016 Thailand has 21326000 households in total There is an increase in numbers of households in Bangkok and vicinities whereas the number of household in North Eastern which is the highest one has declined

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities North Eastern Northen

Southern Eastern Western

Central

Thousands households

34 3432 32 33 32 33 32 31

29

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Persons

Number of households by regions 2006-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 177

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Family living in Bangkok and vicinities earned the highest amount of income

Source National Statistical Office

Average annual household income in different regions in 2007-2015

RegionAverage annual household income (THB thousand)

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bangkok and vicinities 327 346 347 395 437

Eastern 227 240 271 317 332

Central 226 280 268 345 305

Southern 233 263 314 326 303

North Eastern 153 178 215 220 248

Western 193 214 205 256 245

Northern 157 186 203 232 234

Average 21657 24386 26043 29871 30057

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 178

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Household consumption House andor land Farming Business Education Others

163087

116681

134699 134900

156770

THB

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailand household debt to GDP decreased in 2017 but it is still considered at high level Household consumption and housing were the main purposes of borrowing

Average household debt to GDP in 2008-2017

517 524

579 593

662

718765

799 812 799

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average debt per household by purposes in 2007-2015

Thailand household debt to GDP had been rising for a decade and just showed the sign of decline due to the growth in GDP and shrinking in personal loan resulting from more stringent loan standard by banks

Spending on household consumption and house andor land contributed around 70 of average household debt in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 179

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Electric train transport will cover most areas of BKK within 2022 3 international airports (Don Mueang Suvarnabhumi and U-Tapao) will be linked by Airport Rail Link

Mass Rapid Transit System (MRT)

Source Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand

Line Route Start construction Open service

Current MRT network

Airport Rail Link Phaya Thai ndash Suvannabhumi Operating

Green Mo Chit ndash BearingNational Stadium ndash Bangwa Operating

Blue Bang Sue ndashHualumpong OperatingPurple Bang Yai ndash Bang Sue Operating

Planned projects

Dark RedThammasat University ndash Rangsit 2015 2018Rangsit ndash Bang Sue 2015 2020

Hua Lampong ndash Maha chai Planned Planned

Light RedTaling Chan ndash Bang Sue 2015 2018Bang Sue ndash Makksan - Hua Mak 2015 2018

Airport Rail Link Don Muang ndash Bang Sue ndash Phaya Thai 2015 2019

Dark GreenMo Chit - Khu Khot 2015 2020Bearing - Samutprakarn ndash Bangpu 2012 2019

Light GreenTaling Chan - Bangwa 2016 2021National Stadium ndash Yod Sae Planned Planned

BlueTha Phra - Bang Sue 2011 2019Hua Lumpong ndash Bang Kae 2011 2019Bang Kae - Putthanomthon Sai 4 2017 2021

Purple Taopun ndash Ratchburana 2012 2019

Orange Taling Chan ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Pink Khae Rai ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Yellow Lao Phro ndash Samrong 2017 2020Gold Krung Thonburi ndash Prachatipok 2017 2020Grey Vacharaphol ndash Wutthakat - -

Airport Rail Link Don Mueang - Suvarnabhumi - U-Tapao - -

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 180

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 181

Office market

Office market in Bangkok is concentrated in CBD Inner Bangkok and currently has been spreading to city fringe considered to be potential new CBD

Core Central Business District(Asoke Phloen Chit Sathon

Siam Silom area)

bull Inner Bangkok areabull Largest office districtbull Densely occupied by government

offices embassies financial firms and corporate headquarters

bull High rent costbull Limited supply

Potential new Central Business District

(Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 area)

bull Located the north east of the core CBD

bull Lower rent costbull More available supplybull Future hub of transport

Business districts in Bangkok

Due to the scarcity of land for development in CBD and the expansion of mass transit system to surrounding areas the area in city fringe such as Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 has been developed to be another business district

Source NRI analysis

Map of Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 182

Thousand Sqm

15

29

132

96

116107

135

146 143

118

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net new supply Net demand

Office market

The demand is expected to increase due to business expansion and governmentrsquos policy encouraging new business set-up and investment promotion

Bangkok office accumulated supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2016

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Bangkok annual net new supply and net demand in 2012-2016

Note these figures exclude multi-owner occupied premises and office buildings smaller than 5000 Sqm

Thousand Sqm

4463 4454 4478 4604 4700 4783

3801 3908 4049 4190 4333 4451

852 877 904 910 922 931

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Supply Demand Occupancy rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 183

Office market

The change of occupancy rate of non-CBD Grade A is mainly resulted from the completion of new buildings and the movement of tenants to the new ones The 9th Tower (57618 sqm) AIA Capital Centre (54000 sqm) Bhiraj Tower (32000 sqm) G Tower (66000 sqm)

The decline of amount of occupied space in CBD Grade B buildings might be a result of relocation of tenants from CBD Grade B buildings to new properties in non-CBD area due to rising rents and limited space

Asking rent space availability easy access by mass transit and good quality of office supply with supporting amenities are the factors supporting an increase of renting in non-CBD area

Even though there was more supply added for non-CBD Grade A offices the occupancy rate turned at high level in all areas

Occupancy rate by grade in 2014Q1-2016Q4

0

10

14Q

1

14Q

2

14Q

3

14Q

4

15Q

1

15Q

2

15Q

3

15Q

4

16Q

1

16Q

2

16Q

3

16Q

4

CBD Grade A CBD Grade B Overall Non-CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade B

928953

908

934

904

931

947

823812

927

884

917

80

85

90

95

100

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 184

Office market

Around 77 of the additional volume of supply for the next 3 years will be located in non-CBD area

Number of office building construction permits in CBD and non-CBD

Source Manager newspaper National Real Estate Information Center Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Planned future office supply in CBD and non-CBD 2017-2019

71

123 116 114

103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BuildingsZone Buildings Space

(sqm)

Expected completion

year

CBDGaysorn Office Tower 32000 2017

Samyan Mirttown 7000 2019

Non-CBD

G Tower (North Tower) 50000 2017

MS Siam Tower 48000 2018

Bhiraj Tower at BITEC 42531 2017

Singha Complex 37000 2018

T1 Office building 34000 2018

Shinnawat 4 31880 2017

Ladprao Hills 25087 2017

Aree Hill 23340 2018

Cosmo Office Park 12000 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 185

Office market

Rental rate is trending upwards and this trend is expected to continue in 2017 due to increasing demand and limited supply especially in CBD

736 753823 854

937 960

578 610 630 661723

818

572 593 626 646695

738

558 575 601 607 640 671

420 433 449 461 479 504

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade A Bangkok Average CBD Grade B Non-CBD Grade B

Bangkok office asking rent per square meter by grade in 2011-2016

price at the end of year

In 2016 the overall average asking rent is increasing 62 from 2015 to be THB 738 per sqm The highest rental rate growth is shown in non-CBD Grade A buildings increasing 131

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 186

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 187

Residential Market

Apart from the effect of economic slowdown more stringent mortgage loan criteria by banks significantly affected both buyers and developers especially small and medium-sized investment companies as well as newcomers of the real estate industry resulting in slow pace of sales and supply

Some Thai developers started the joint ventures with foreign companies to bring in innovation to improve construction process architecture and design and to finance projects For example Mitsui Fudosan and Ananda Development AP and Mitsubishi Estate and Sena Development and Hankyu Realty

In October 2015 the stimulus package which is the temporary reduction of transfer and mortgage fee was announced in order to boost the residential market after the market shrinking affected by the coup in May 2014

Residential market in Bangkok and vicinities have been expanding but with decreasing growth rate due to tightened lending criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Prachachat newspaper

Market value of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H1 (THB million)

Share( as of 2016H1)

CAGR 59

Condominium(4533)

CAGR 60

Housing(5467)

CAGR 57576524 699275 754221 842763 867646 813632 900096 901127

468422 545916

601852 566575 608603 596753 694000 747299

1916

890

393 475

-446

1303

341

-400000

0

400000

800000

1200000

1600000

2000000

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1

Housing Condominium Growth

THB millions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 188

Residential Market

A sign of low growth in new supply is showed in both markets since developers aim to postpone new projectslaunching until the inventory will be absorbed Oversupply could be an issue for this market especially condominium in the peripheral Bangkok since there is

remaining built-but-unsold inventory as well as supply of land for development is still high

The demand of condominium markets is supported by rising number of smaller size of family changing lifestyle and convenience in transportation and living

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The number of total supply and the take-up rate of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H2 (units)

91147 107962 114006 116133 123697 120747 125991 125099 126161

6728266874 72187 81422 78502 76963 78535 77848 77668

101312127328 142563 141741 148674 146923 160658 171796 179930

40740

4290449352 54054 57324 57364

5985659642 58957

57536175 6123 5879 6118 6107 6160 6164 6190

71327480 7428 7239 7217 7192 7286 7423 7532

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H20

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Housing units sold Housing unsold units Condominium units sold Condominium unsold units Housing take-up Condominiums take-up

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 189

Residential Market

Land price is the factor which has the most influence on the price of condominium and houses particularly condominium projects in the downtown area In 2016 overall land price in Bangkok increased approximately 4 Areas along the mass transit train lines saw an increase in price about 65-89 While midtown and

suburban showed the land price appreciation around 26-43 land prices in downtown area rose 64

Prices index of all types of properties have risen while landrsquos and condominiumrsquos price index ranked the top

Land price index and house price index by type of house for Bangkok and vicinities in 2008-2017

Note 1 Single detached house including land town house including land and condominium price indices have been constructed by using hedonic regression method (Rolling window and time dummy) (3-month moving average)

2 Land price index has been constructed by using Stratification method with monthly weight (3-month moving average)

Source Bank of Thailand Thansettakij newspaper

Reference point = 100 (Jan 2009)

89 100 102106 108 114

120 128 129 129

89

100 104106 111

124134 138 137

99118 119

131 130140

156 160171

90108

114123 124

138148

170172

40

70

100

130

160

190

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Detached house (including land) Townhouse (including land) Condominium Land

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 190

Residential Market

Criteria for good location could be the connected transportation network and the expansion of train lines in suburban areas

The majority of housing supply is condensed in suburban areas in Bangkok However they have been diffused to vicinities due to price and availability of land

Source National Real Estate Information Center Post Today newspaper

The dispersion of housing supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of housing supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

PathumThani

Bangkok

Nakorn Pathom

SamutPrakan

Samut Sakhon

LegendHousingHousing started being sold since July 2016

Nonthaburi

N = 203255

336

198

198

160

6840

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan Samut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 191

Residential Market

Supply of available land for development is still high in midtown and suburban area in Bangkok where will be the areas of the expansion of mass transit lines and facility development

In Bangkok 70 of supply is in midtown and suburban area but projects with the highest value are in the downtown area

PathumThani

Nonthaburi

Nakorn Pathom

Samut SakhonSamut Prakan

Bangkok

LegendCondominiumsCondominiums started being sold since July 2016

The dispersion of condominiums supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of condominiums supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

Source National Real Estate Information Center

N = 238887

683

153

61

8206 15

Bangkok NonthaburiPathum Thani Samut PrakanSamut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 192

Residential Market

Bangkok has the highest sold rate in housing and condominium market compared to other vicinities because of convenience of transportation and facilities

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for housing in 2016H2 The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for condominium in 2016H2

493

544

548

584

596

719

507

456

452

416

404

281

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nakorn Pathom

Samut Sakhon

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

519

567

626

680

718

797

481

433

374

320

282

203

0 20 40 60 80 100

Samut Sakhon

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Nakorn Pathom

Nonthaburi

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 193

Residential Market

Townhouse and THB 1-3 million house were the best selling products in term of units However over THB 5 million house showed increasing take-up rate

Townhouse and detached house showed a decreasing trend on demand but they still occupied around 85 of total sold units Prime townhouse in downtown or midtown became more demand since its price per square meter is lower than condominium in midtown

The number of house transfer was much less than sales particularly in houses which are less than THB 2 million because of tightened lending restrictions by banks The mortgage rejection rates were as high as 50 since borrowers especially low-to-middle-income ones have

been faced with the situation of higher level of personal debt than the required criteria by banks

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkok Post newspaper

The take-up rate of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by types in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

4725 4597 4577

3888 3827 3653

955 1123 1267

402 421 458

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Townhouse Detached house Duplexed

Shophouse Others

117 091 104

4040 3925 3921

3347 3470 3477

2495 2514 2498

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 194

Residential Market

The highest demand was shown in 1 bedroom condominium and condominium with pricing THB 1-3 million while take-up rate of over THB 5 million units is rising

For midtown and suburban areas there is an increase in supply due to land availability with reasonable price and mass transportation expansion

For downtown area there is a limited supply with the upward trend of price due to limited supply of land for development

The number of transfer units may not as high as the number of sold units because of inability to secure loan Developers had shifted their focus to the upper-end level market since this market had high take-up rate and was

less affected by strict mortgage loan criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Sold units of condominium by types in 2015H2-2016H2 Sold units of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2 The take-up rate of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

1641 1675 1924

7058 7007 6826

1197 1218 1163104 100 087

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Studio 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms ge 3 bedrooms

954 851 893

5981 5942 6094

1655 1654 1530

1411 1553 1483

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 195

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

The areas for prime condominiums are well-developed as a center of business education convenient public transport and shopping malls

Prime Sukhumvit area has 4 prime projects with 597 new units launched in 2016 which share the largest portion in supply

Central Lumpini area showed the highest growth in average selling price at 99 following by Prime Sukhumvit with 81 increase Riverside-Rama III and Sathorn-Silom area which the price rose 31 and 28 respectively

Prime Sukhumvit remains the main location of prime condominiums

2016 prime projects Location Average asking

price (THBSqm) Units

98 Wireless Central Lumpini (Wireless) 550000 77

28 Chidlom Central Lumpini (Chidlom) 350000 436

Khun by Yoo Prime Sukhumvit (Thonglor 12) 300000 148

Vittorio Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 39) 280000 88

KRAAM Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 26) 275000 126

Laviq Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 57) 240000 235

New supply of prime condominium projects in Bangkok in 2016

Prime condominium is refer to condominium with pricing more than 200000 THBSqm

Location map of areas for prime condominiums in Bangkok

Central Lumpini area Prime Sukhumvit area

Riverside-Rama III area

Sathorn-Silom area

Source Property Insight news Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 196

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

Developer had shifted their focus to prime condominium due to limited supply and had demand from both domestic and foreign

Source Property Today news Bangkokbiz News newspaper Nation newspaper

Supplybull Luxury condominium segment accounted for less than 5 of the total Bangkok condominium supply bull In 2016 the market showed strong growth in supply by 246 increasing especially within the Prime Sukhumvit area bull Developers focused more on prime condominiums since there was purchasing power and land price in downtown area

was too high to develop middle level projects

Demand

bull There was demand with 645 take-up rate with decreasing growth rate bull Buyers in this segment did not rely on home loans and had purchasing power bull There were both domestic and foreign demand Thai buyers accounted for about 85 The rest was the foreign buyers

mostly people from Hong Kong Singapore and Taiwan who have business in Thailandbull Around 48 bought a unit for self-occupancy 36 bought to generate long-term rental income and 16 were the

short-term speculatorsbull Buyers are likely to be more selective

Price bull Price has been increased 47 in average from 2015 The highest record of asking price is THB 720000 sqm by 98 Wireless It is expected that price levels will remain high and may rise due to the land price appreciation

Challenge bull Limited of supply of land for development and high land-acquisition costbull Anticipate customerrsquos needs and deliver superior customer value

Key success factors

bull Accessibility factors convenient transportation both by car and public transportbull Living factors close to shopping malls recreation education health care and business areabull Mood amp livable factors location attributes unique ambience architecture and premium amenities are also represent

the excusive lifestyle and preferences of the target group Brand affiliation was applied as value creation for projectsbull Cost factors competitive price with high quality

Opportunity bull Condominium ownership law for foreigners 49 of total units can be occupied by foreign person

Prime condominium

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 197

Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies

There is no difference between Thai and joint venture projects in terms of price and building except one project differentiating by applying Japanese unique theme

List of Japanese companies conducting joint venture with Thai companies

Price range (THBSqm)

lt 70000 70000 -200000

gt 200000

Floo

r lev

els

gt 30

flo

ors

10 -

29flo

ors

lt 10

flo

ors

Include only new launched condominium projects in 2016-2017

Japan-Thailand joint venture projects positioning

Japanese companies Thai companies of joint venture projects

Mitsui Fudosan (Asia) Pte Ltd

Ananda Development PLC 12

Mitsubishi Estate Co Ltd AP (Thailand) PLC 8

Nomura Real Estate Development Co Ltd Origin Property PLC 3

Hankyu Realty Co Ltd Sena Development PLC 2

Shinwa Real Estate Co Ltd Woraluk Property PLC 1

Tokyu Corporation Sansiri PLC 1

Color denotes the location

1500 units 500 units

Size of circle denotes the number of units

Source NRI analysis

Suburban area with mass rapid transit accessMidtown area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 198

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 199

Hotel market trend

Number of international tourists has been increasing every year except 2014 which had politic issue and coup drsquoetat

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Malaysia Japan Korea Russia Othercoup detat

CAGR 95

Number of international tourists visiting Thailand

In 2015 Chinese tourist is around 266 which increased around 4 times in 10 years following by Malaysian 115 and Japanese 46

Thousand persons

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 200

Hotel market trend

From 2012 trend of total length of stay has been decreasing due to increasing of tourists from East Asia

95 90 91 96 100 99 98 95

59 57 59 64 68 68 67 70

158142 145

156165 165 164 169

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total EastAsia Europe

Average length of stay of international tourists

In average tourists from East Asia stay around 7 days while European tourists stay around 17 days

Days

Average length of stay of East Asia tourists in 2015

Country of resident Average length of stay (days)

China 81

Japan 80

Korea 77

Taiwan 76

Hong Kong 65

ASEAN 56

Others 72

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 201

Hotel market trend

Japanese tourist spend more on accommodation but Chinese tourist spend money more on others such as souvenir

21013

5109

9985

15273

27229

5630

10924

15884

17933

5013

10621

18330

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Others

Transportation

FoodBeverage

Accomodation

Japan China Total

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports National Statistical Office

Average expenditure per day of Total Chinese and Japanese tourists by purpose in 2015 Average expenditure of international tourists per person per day in 2008-2015

THB

THB

4520543525 44246 44708

48262

50972

54975

59666

4521143970 44171 44724

4725049207

48876

51897

4142340112 40787

41871

43928

4616548089

51379

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Japan Total

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 202

Hotel market trend

Number of hotel room is increasing and occupancy rate also increasing with CAGR (2009-2015) around 99 In Bangkok the new supply mainly in Sukhumvit Rd

Source National Statistical Office

The number of hotel rooms and occupancy rate nationwide in 2009-2015

366455

531 528 540 551

651

368395

438487

563 581

651

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Room Occupancy Rate

Thousand units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 203

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 204

1719 17192033

2567

3271314

533

705

315

1630 1630 1813 2015

2572

183202

557

208

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Existing supply New supply Existing demand New demand

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand Sqm

94838918

7852 7862 7750

Occupancy rate

Logistics Property Market

Market value has increased to be about THB 68 billion in 2015 with CAGR (2011-2015) 202 in supply and 143 in demand

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Warehouse supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 205

Logistics Property Market

The movement at ports is rising indicating an increase of demand for logistics property service

Source Ministry of Commerce Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Number of containers passing through Bangkok and Laem Chabang port in 2012-2016

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Bangkok Port - Inbound Laem Chabang Port - Inbound

Bangkok Port - Outbound Laem Chabang Port - Outbound

Thousand TEU

Remark TEU ndash Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit Container

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CAGR 45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 206

Logistics Property Market

The positive factor for the future demand of warehouse service is growing logistic industry supported by E-commerce market and governmentrsquos projects

Source Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Segment( as of 2021f)

Government(1833)

CAGR 184Retail

(2333)CAGR 187

Businesses(6001)

CAGR 201

THB trillions

12 14 16 19 2227

3605

0506

0709

1

14

0405

0506

07

09

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

E-commerce market value in 2015-2021f List of infrastructure development projects in 2015-2022

Infrastructure projects Year

Airport Development of U Tapao airport to be aviation hub

2017-2021

Port Development of 6 ports in the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea

2015-2022

Railway Railway Standard Gauge Thailand-ASEAN-China

2015-2022

Dual-track railway (Laem Chabang port Map Ta Phut port)

2017-2021

High-speed train connecting 3 airports (Suvannabhumi Don Muaeng U Tapao)

2017-2021

Road 12 Motorway connecting between regions 2015-2022

Motorway (Bangkok-ChonburiPattaya-Map Ta Phut)

2017-2021

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 207

Logistics Property Market

Among 3 keys logistics areas Bangkok-Samutprakan has the highest supply since it is the area of airports and industrial estates and it also locates near Bangkok

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Supply share by key logistics locations

Pathumthani-Ayutthaya

Bangkok-Samutprakan

Eastern Seaboard

453

398

144

04

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard

Pathumthani-Ayuttaya Others

Map of Thailand key logistics locations

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 208

Logistics Property Market

Price competition occurred in Eastern Seaboard area since there was a rise in supply resulting from forecasted demand from Eastern Economic Corridor project

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Monthly warehouse rental rates by key logistics locations in 2011-2015

156157

161 161 161

152 152153

150 149147 148

150151 151

155 155

158157 157

140

145

150

155

160

165

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard Pathumthani-Ayutthaya Market rate

THBSqm

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 209

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 210

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 211

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population Growth

India is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption

Source Population Reference Bureau 2017 Datasheet USA

Indiarsquos Position in Population Growth Indiarsquos Population Structure by Age

China18

India18

USA4

Indonesia4

Brazil3

Rest53

2017 (August)

India17

China14

Nigeria4

USA4Indonesia

4

Rest57

2050F

World Population (mid-2017) 7536 mn World Population (2050F) 9683 mn

-100-050

mdash050100150200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

lation

grow

th ra

te (

)

Time (years)

India China Russia Brazil Korea Japan USA UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Percentage of population

Age (

in ye

ars)

YearMedian age (years) Dependability ratio ()Working age population ()

Most favorable period for development

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 212

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid Urbanization

India is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing

Urbanization Trends Major Urban Centers

29 33 38 43 4861

74 81

7681

8588

9092

88 81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Percentage of total population

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(00rsquo

s m

illio

n)

TimeUrban Rural Urban population as of total

Past Trend Projected Future Trend

Source 1 World Urbanization Prospects The 2014 Revision UN Population Division

2

1

6

3

7

5

4

7 Major Urban Centres (Tier 1 cities)

Non-Major Urban Centres (Tier 2 cities)

Source NRI analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 213

904 908 911 914 91996

9289

8681

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Constructionothers

Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of Economy

Although the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years

Contribution of Construction Sector to Countryrsquos GVA (Gross Value Add) at factor cost (at current prices)

As demographic pressure grows need to sustain economic growth will drive investments in the construction sector

Base year 2011-12Values INR trillion

81192

10361148

1246

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 214

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure

GDP per capita at current prices

Source IMF World Economic Outlook April 2017

The improving economic condition of the society will increase the demand for better quality infrastructure especially housing

Average Household Savings per annum

Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E2015E2016E 2019

US$

Time (years)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015IN

R (In

Tho

usan

ds)

Urban Rural Overall

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 215

Note Middle class defined as those living in households with daily per capita income between US$10-100 at 2005 US$ PPP terms

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world

Structure of Population in March 2015 by Income Top 10 Countries in Middle Class Consumption

HHI Household Income per annumHHI brackets Rich (above Rs 073mn) High middle income (Rs 073-020mn) Middle income (Rs 02-01mn) Lower Income and Poor (below Rs 01mn)Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid Data Retrieved 09th Sep 2016 Source Brookings Institution OECD Working Paper no-285 2010

RANK 2009 2020 2030

1 US 44 CHINA 45 INDIA 128

2 JAPAN 18 US 43 CHINA 100

3 GERMANY 12 INDIA 37 US 40

4 FRANCE 09 JAPAN 22 INDONESIA 25

5 UK 09 GERMANY 14 JAPAN 23

6 RUSSIA 09 RUSSIA 12 RUSSIA 14

7 CHINA 07 FRANCE 11 GERMANY 13

8 ITALY 07 INDONESIA 10 MEXICO 12

9 MEXICO 07 MEXICO 10 BRAZIL 12

10 BRAZIL 06 UK 10 FRANCE 11

WORLD 21 WORLD 35 WORLD 55

1304

58

29

87

RICHAverage HHI Rs114mn+14 over 2015

HIGH MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI Rs 033mnNo Change

MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI 015 mn+7 over 2015

LOWER INCOME ampPOORAverage HHI 075mn+7 over 2015

Indiarsquos middle class population would greatly drive demand in the construction sector

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 216

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 217

Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and Growth

The construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure

Sector contribution to Gross Value Added 2015-16 Real-estate market size and growth-rate

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017) Source IBEF India Julrsquo17

Total GVA value at current prices (Base year 2011-12) INR 1246 trillion

Note Real-estate market includes ownership of residential commercial and industrial dwellings and related business services

Agriculture forestry and

fishing17

Mining and quarrying

2

Manufacturing17

Electricity gas water supply amp

other utility services

3

Construction8

Trade repair hotels and restaurants

11

Transport storage

communication amp services hellip

Financial services

6

Real estate ownership of

dwelling amp professional

services15

Public administration and defence

6

Other services8

50 53 56 67 121 94 126 180

853

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2020E 2028E

US$

(bill

ion)

Time (years)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 218

Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players Performance

The real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes

Source Capital IQ amp NRI Analysis

List of Prominent Real Estate Developers (Listed Players only)

Developer Name Revenue USD mn (FY17)

FocusedMarket

Asset ClassResidential Retail Office Hospitality Industrial

DLF Ltd 1269 North India

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd

737 Bengaluru

Godrej Properties Ltd 244 West India

Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd

358 Metro Cities

Unitech Ltd 267 North India

Sobha Ltd 344 South India

The Phoneix Mills Ltd 282 West amp South

Omaxe Limited 251 North India

Brigade Enterprises Ltd 312 South India

Oberoi Realty Ltd 172 West India

HDIL 112 Mumbai

Mahindra Lifespace Developers

118 West amp South

Ashiana Housing Ltd 56 North India

Nesco Ltd 55 Mumbai

Nirlon Ltd 37 Mumbai

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 219

Financing Developments ndash Project Financing Options

Private lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed

Financing options by developers preference Recently Introduced Financing Options

PE funds

NBFC Lending

Private Lending

Bank Lending

FCCB

QIP

AIF

IPO

bull NBFC Non-banking Financial Companybull PE Private Equitybull IPO Initial Public Offeringbull ECB External Commercial Borrowing

bull QIP Qualified Institutional Placementbull FCCB Foreign currency bondsbull REMF Real Estate Mutual Fundbull AIF Alternative Investment Fundbull REIT Real Estate Investment Trustbull InvIT Infrastructure Investment Trust

Preference (high to low)

REMF

REIT

ECB

InvIT

Option Brief Description Merit

AIF bull Diversified portfolio of funds that invest in real estate infra and other priority sector projects

bull Long-term money can be invested in unlisted companies

bull Easy access of money from foreign investors

REIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of real estate assets on behalf of investors

bull Will create exit opportunities for developers and financial investors

bull Infuse transparency and liquidity in the market

InvIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of income generating infrastructure projects

bull Will create liquidity for private infrastructure players

bull Will lower debt exposure and unlocktied up capital of developers

Source NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 220

Financing Developments Trends in REITs

REITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

Reg

ulat

ory

Inve

stor

s

Regulation Introducedbull lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts

Regulations 2014rsquo introduced

Taxation Relaxedbull Dividend distribution tax on REITs

abolished

Operating Conditions Relaxedbull Limit on maximum number of sponsors

raised to fivebull Limit on investment in under-construction

projects raised to 20bull Foreign fund managers allowed to relocate

to India as fund manager

Investments by Banks Allowedbull Indian Central Bank (RBI) allowed

Indian banks to invest in REITs within their umbrella limit of 20 of their Net-Owned Funds

bull This umbrella limit of 20 includes bankrsquos investments in equity-linked mutual funds venture capital funds and stocks

Investments by Mutual Fundsbull Mutual funds allowed to invest up to

5 of their NAV in a single REIT with maximum REIT exposure restricted at 10 of NAV

bull GIC CPPIB Temasek ADIA in talks with IndoSpace for launching ~USD2 bn logistics REIT

bull Blackstone to launch ~USD06 bn office REIT with Embassy Group

bull DLF plans to launch office REIT by mid-2018

bull Blackstone to launch second office REIT with Panchshil Realty

bull Blackstone may consider listing its retail assets under REIT in future

bull Post approval by RBI mutual fund houses are altering their schemes to allow investments in to REITs and InvITs- DSP Blackrock MF altered two

schemes- Birla Sun Life MF altered 12

schemes- ICICI Prudential MF altered three

schemes

bull RMZ Corp (backed by Qatar Investment Authority) is looking to launch REIT by end-2017

bull K Raheja Corp is consolidating its office assets and may be considering launching an office REIT

bull Even though REIT Regulations were introduced in 2014 no real estate developer or investor had shown interest in the initial two years

bull Regulatory points such as dividend distribution tax and certain operating conditions made India REIT listings unattractive for investors

Investments by Insurance Cosbull Insurance companies allowed to

invest up to 3 of their funds in REITs with maximum holding in a single REIT restricted to 5

Source Reserve Bank of India Press Articles NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 221

Financing Developments Trends in Domestic Investments

Domestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Based on data till June 2017

563

23852078

1011

PE investments indicate deals by India-dedicated funds

6753

67

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 15x of 1Q16

2014 2015 2016 2017

Numb

er an

d Valu

e of D

eals

Key D

eals

Ann

ounc

emen

ts

bull Tata Capital ndash Shriram Properties USD80 mn

bull Peninsula Brookfield (Domestic fund) ndash Ansal API USD50 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Nirmal Lifestyle USD50mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndash Supertech USD45 mn

bull Fund raising- Kotak Realty USD400 mn- HDFC USD 250 mn

bull Indostar Capital ndash Total Environment Building Systems USD137 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Omkar Realtors and Developers USD200 mn

bull Piramal Enterprises ndashOzone Group USD96 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Lodha Group USD86 mn

bull Fund raising- HDFC Property USD550 mn- Arthveda USD250 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Lodha Group USD347 mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndashM3M India USD187 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Adarsh Developers USD110 mn

bull Altico Capital ndash Vatika Group USD103 mn

bull Fund raising- Rising StraitsUSD1000 mn- HDFC Venture USD400 mn- ASK Group USD299 mn

bull HDFC Venture Edelweiss Capital Altico Capital ndash Adarsh Developers USD144 mn for land acquisition and starting construction on five residential projects

bull Piramal Fund ndash ASF Group USD85 mn for IT SEZbull Piramal Fund ndash Wadhwa Group USD65 mn for office assetsbull Altico Capital ndash Sheth Group USD56 mn for residential project developmentbull Edelweiss Capital ndash Parinee Realty USD51 mn for under-construction luxury

residential projectbull Fund raising

- SMC Capital and REPL (EPC Developer) USD75 mn ndash SMC IM Capital- Arthveda USD250 mn ndash Affordable Low and Middle Income Fund- Indiabulls Housing Finance USD224 mn ndashDual Advantage Commercial Assets Fund- Reliance Capital USD150 mn ndash Reliance Rental Yield Fund

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 222

Financing Developments Trends in Foreign Investments

Foreign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics

2014 2015 2016 2017

Num

ber a

nd V

alue o

f Dea

lsKe

y Dea

ls A

nnou

ncem

ents

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashUnitech USD349 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash Nirlon USD225 mn

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Infinity Techno Park USD108 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndashParanjape Schemes Construction USD100 mn

bull Fund raising

- CPPIB (Canada)USD500 mn

- Hines (US) USD250 mn

bull Blackstone (US) ndash Alpha G Corp USD302 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF (Residential) USD300 mn

bull Warburg Pincus (US) ndashPiramal Realty USD284 mn

bull Goldman Sachs (US) ndash Nitesh Estates USD300 mn

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashHiranandani USD1000 mn

bull APG Asset Management (Netherlands) ndash Godrej Properties USD275 mn

bull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Phoenix Mills USD250 mn

bull Xander APG Asset Management ndash Virtuous Retail South Asia USD109 mn

bull Fund raising

- Xander USD400 mn

- Macquarie USD500 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF USD1800 mn for 40 stake in rental business across office and retail assets Talks began with 25 prospective buyer and narrowed down to Blackstone and GIC

bull Blackstone (US) ndash K Raheja Corp USD250 mn for 20 mn square feet office spacebull CDPQ (Canada) ndash Piramal Enterprises USD250 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Arshiya USD83 mn for six warehousesbull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Indospace Formed a USD1200 mn JV to acquire and develop

logistics facilities in India JV shall acquire 13 industrial and logistics projects totalling 14 mn square feet from current funds

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Firstspace Realty Formed a JV to invest USD500-600 mn to develop 15 mn square feet logistics and industrial facilities

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Shriram Group US$350 mn for SEZ looking for offices in Tier 1 cities

bull KKR (US) ndash Signature Global USD32 mn to develop affordable housing

Based on data till June 2017

965

30813164

1396

3422 26

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 11x of 1Q16

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 223

Financing Developments Debt position of leading developers

Debt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default

Source SampP Capital IQ NRI Analysis

799

284

333

408

472

493

518

614

1235

3548

Developer Debt Position

Developer Name Total Debt Dec16 (USD mn)

Increase FY16 to Dec16

Increase FY15 to FY16

Interest Coverage Ratio

-13

35

-11

24

-12

0

-52

-9

-2

-19

4

-12

38

-12

8

0

1

-13

3

21

108

091

267

251

149

017

084

163

146

292

Note Total 10 players mentioned above account for 78 of the total debt of listed real estate players in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 224

Financing Developments Debt ndash Trends in NPAs of Banking System

Due to project loan default by developers non-performing assets of banks are increasing Government has increased pace to resolve NPA issue Global PE investors seem keen to capitalize on this opportunistic

2012 - 2014 2015 2016 2017

Key

Eve

nts

NPA

Rat

io

bull Aug-Nov 2015 RBI conducted Asset Quality Review -AQR of bank books to ensure NPAs are correctly recognized

bull Large portion of stressed loans accumulated due to default by large Indian companies

bull Banks delayed the NPA bad loan recognition to show good performance

GNPA Ratio Forecast

Forecast as per RBIrsquos lsquoFinancial Stability Reportrsquo December 2016

NPAs in Indian banking system (across sectors) ndash Ratio of Gross Non-Performing Assets to Total Advances

Source Reserve Bank of India ndash lsquoFinancial Stability Report December 2016rsquo Bloomberg Reports Mar 2017 Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both NPA ratio

bull Global PE heavyweights formed JVs to focus on investments in Indian stressed assets

- Brookfield Apollo Global Bain Capital CPPIB CDPQ and JC Flower amp Co

bull Jan-17 RBI announced that is expects NPAs to increase furtherbull May-17 Banking Regulation Act 1949 amended to give RBI more powers

to resolve NPA issue RBI now has the power to give directions to banks in India to initiate insolvency process against debt defaulters

bull Jun-17 RBI identified 12 key defaulters (together account for 25 of the total NPAs) for resolution by initiating insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016)- The lenders to these defaulters shall finalise the resolution plan within six

months failing which insolvency proceedings shall be initiated

30 35 40 4676 91 98 101

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNPA to Total Advances

Sep-16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 225Source Bloomberg Reports Press Articles NRI Analysis

Global PE Firms in Indian Stressed Asset Market

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Global PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets

Glob

al PE

Firm

s Indian Partner

Jul 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Aug 16

Mar 16

Mar 16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 226Source VC Circle Press Articles

Recent Announcements (Illustrative List)

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Major global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets

Investor Target Seller Partner

Estimated DealValue (US$ mn)

Asset-Type

Office Residential Retail Others

Ascendas Arshiya Ltd 83 Six warehouses near Mumbai (Western India)

CPPIB IndoSpace 1200 JV to acquire 13 logistics assets (14 mn sqft)

GIC DLF - DCCDL 1800 GIC Singapore announced intention to purchase 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business DCCDL (DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd) (Across India)

KKR Signature Global

31 Affordable housing projects in Gurgaon(Northern India)

Xander Group AdarshDevelopers

20 For projects in Bengaluru area (Southern India)

- - Looking for assets in tier1 cities (Across India)

ShriramGroup

190 SEZ in Chennai (Southern India)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 227

DLF Promoters

DLF Ltd

DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd (DCCDL)

25

Assets and Projects

Assets and Projects

Public

CCPS sale to GIC

Office Retail Land Under-construction Other Assets

75

Proposed Transaction ndash Sale of CCPS held by Promoters of DLF

40 60

Case Study DLF - GIC

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Recently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion

Snapshot

Deal Summarybull Sale of promoter familyrsquos 40 stake in

DCCDLbull Deal value estimated to be US$18 billionbull Funds raised to be used for debt reductionbull Expected to be closed by September 2017

DCCDL Businessbull Assets Offices Retail Landbull Operational portfolio 268 mn sqftbull Development pipeline 67 mn sqft

Source Press Articles NRI Analysis

Cumulative Convertible Preference Shares

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 228

Regulatory Developments

Recent policy initiatives such as RE regulation act GST tax reform and strong steps for resolving bank NPAs are likely to make Indian market attractive for investors

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

RE

Reg

ulat

ion

Anti-

Cor

rupt

ion

Ban

king

Sy

stem

Econ

omic

bull SEBI introduced lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts Regulations 2014rsquo expected to bring greater accountability and reduce frauds and project delays

bull Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Bill 2015 introduced to prohibit illegal ownership transactions

bull Passed RERA -Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

bull RERA becomes effective however some states are yet to comply

bull Some states have diluted the provisions of the central act raising concerns

bull Interest Subsidy Scheme for housing loans for low and middle income groups to promote affordable housing in India

bull Real estate sector impacted by demonetization due to high volume of cash transactions

bull Goods and Service Tax (GST) to become effective from 1 July potentially simplifying the Indian indirect tax structure

bull Benami Act 2016 becomes effective

Source CBRE ndash lsquoIndia Marketflashrsquo Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Indian central bank (RBI) conducted asset quality review (AQR) of banks to ensure NPAs are recognized and provisioned

bull Government relaxed rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in real estate

bull Removed restrictive conditions of minimum area and capitalization amount

bull Demonetization high value currency notes to remove lsquoblack moneyrsquo

bull Government amended Indian banking regulation law to give RBI more powers to resolve NPA issue

bull RBI identified 12 large debt defaulters and instructed banks to push these accounts for insolvency

bull Income Tax department identified 400 transactions for conducting investigations under Benami Act

bull Real estate assets estimated to be worth ~USD80 mn was linked in the transactions

bull Multiple states notified the draft rules and passed the regulations to meet the deadline for compliance ndash 1 May 2017

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both GNPA and NNPA ratios

bull Draft law for indirect tax reform - Goods and Service Tax (GST) released in Public domain in June 2016

bull Constitutional amendment bill passed to facilitate implementation of GST

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 229

Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy Conditions

FDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years howeverrecent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector

Source Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Government of India June 2017

Summary of FDI policy in real estate sector FDI in Real-estate sector (USD bn)

Topic Brief Description

Investment Limit

bull 100 equity allowedbull Automatic authorization route no prior

government approval required

Key Restrictions

bull Construction of farm houses trading in transferable development rights (TDRs) and dealing in land or immovable property

bull Lock-in period of 3 years

Relaxations bull No lock-in period in case of hotels amp resorts hospitals SEZs educational institutions and old age homes

bull Transfer from one non-resident to another non-resident will not be subject to 3 year lock-in period

bull FDI permitted in completed projects for operations and management of townships malls shopping complexes and business centers

Key Implications

bull Will help revive projects that could not receive capital earlier

bull Foreign investors will be able to speed up its investment process

bull Encouraging environment for foreign developers

010

133

011

123

314

166

294

280

218

047

004

072

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2015-16

2014-15

2013-14Multiple corruption cases and political instability led to market downturn

2016-17

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 230

Regulatory Developments ndash Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

Real Estate bill 2016 is a major regulation recently passed by Indian Govt This bill is expected to bring greater accountability and reduce fraud and project delays in this sector

bull Rising population and income has led to an excessive demand for housing in India for the last two decades

bull As a result several firms jumped into the housing development business to capture a share of this booming market

bull In a race to capture demand developers started launching several projects simultaneously by investing consumersrsquo money into buying new land sites

bull Gradually developersrsquo intensity started affecting their cash flows and not just numbers but project sizes became larger

bull This resulted in poor quality construction severe delay in projects completion etc leading to consumersrsquo increasing dissatisfaction legal disputes etc

bull Hence the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Bill 2016 was introduced to re-instate transparency and discipline in the real estate sector and passed in March 2016

Source News Articles

Background Key Provisions of Bill

Boom in residential market

driving new entrants

Race to capture this demand

impacted quality

Lead to consumer dissatisfaction

Scopebull Both commercial and residential assetsbull Developers brokers as well as agentsbull Under-construction projects also covered

Institutional Framework

bull All states to notify guidelines and set up regulatory boards

Fund Utilizationbull 70 of the money collected from the buyers to me maintained i

n an escrow account and to be mandatorily used for the said project

Registrationbull All covered projects need to be registered by the developer withi

n three months of setupbull Online registration facility available

Penaltiesbull In case of violations

ndash Project registrations can be cancelledndash Developerrsquos promoter(s) can be imprisoned

Interest Payments

bull In case of delay in providing possession developer shall pay same interest rate to buyer as the buyer would pay to developer in case of delay in payment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 231

Regulatory Developments ndash Demonetization

Demonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017

Performance of Real-Estate Index

1 Mar 2017

2 Jan

2017

1 Sep 2016

1 Feb 2017

3 Apr

2017

1 Jul 2016

1 Jun

2016

2 May 2016

9314

2 May 2017

256

1 Nov 2016

3 Oct

2016

1 Dec 2016

198

8497

1 Aug 2016

1 Apr

2016

161

7713

Nifty RealtyNifty 50

True impact of demonetization may become clear by the end of 2017 with disclosure of performance by developers

The Nifty Realty (real estate index) has been moving in line with the broader Nifty 50 index

Indices Trading at all time high

Demonetization 8 Nov 2016 caused an immediate but short-term correction

Source wwwinvestingcom NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 232

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 233

Office space demand in 2017 is expected to remain similar to 2016 however developers are making new launches in anticipation of demand growth post 2017

Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndAb

sorp

tion

Vaca

ncy

and

Ren

tal R

ate

106

195186153

190176 205204226183199180

2H20161H2015 1H20161H2014 2H2014 2H2015

AbsorptionNew Supply(in million sq ft)

Over the past 3 years developerrsquos cautious approach and improved economic sentiments have kept demand for office space more than the new supplyhellip

hellip this demand surplus has led to positive movement in vacancy rates and rental rates across key office space markets in India

New Supplybull Estimated to be ~30 more than

in 2016 with Bengaluru and Hyderabad being the biggest contributors

Absorptionbull Estimated to witness modest

~2 increase with Bengaluru and Delhi-NCR being the key markets

Vacancy Ratesbull Expected to improve across key

cities with the exception of Delhi-NCR and Kolkata

Rental Ratesbull Expected to improve across all

key cities with Hyderabad Delhi-NCR and Kolkata outperforming rental growth of 2016

183 174 166 156 150 135

88 92 98103 111 119

177 189 185 167 186 197

73 75 78 81 86 94

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Vacancy Rate Delhi - NCR Rental Mumbai Rental Bengaluru Rental

(Rental rate in USD per square metre per month)

Source Colliers ndash lsquoIndia Office Market Overviewrsquo Jan 2017 Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai and Hyderabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Supertech Plans to invest ~USD115 mn to develop 25 mn square feet of retail and commercial space in Delhi-NCR region

bull Lodha Group Set-up a business vertical to focus on development of commercial assets (office retail and logistics) with a target of USD1 billion AUM by 2021

bull ldquoDemand for office space is expected to remain constant in 2017 hellip The expected take up from ITITeS companies may see reduced proportionhelliprdquo - Anshul Jain Country Head Cushman amp Wakefield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 234

Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal Size

The ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad

9

21

57 60

39

51

173

912

16

21

32 34

84

22

2342 42

26 24 23

5

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

ITITES BFSI Manufacturing Other Services

16000 19000

54000

39000

20000

30000

25300

29000

50000 51000

24500

20000

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

H1 2016 H1 2017

Source India real estate residential and office January - June 2017 Knight Frank

Sector-wise Transactions Split (H1 2017) Deal Size Analysis (Sq ft)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 235

Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costs

New Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list

Prime office space occupancy costs in US$ per sq ft per annum

Source June 2017 Global Prime Office Occupancy Costs CBRE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q12017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 236

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 237

Since 1Q 2017 residential segment has started displaying signs of recovery encouraging developers such as Lodha and Supertech to commit large investments

Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

A 2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndSa

les

Cap

ital V

alue

Source Liases Foras Real Estate Rating amp Research Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

71100

123112149160

107131138123136135

1H20161H2015 2H2015 2H20161H2014 2H2014

SalesNew Launches(in lsquo000 units)

To compensate for the low residential demand developers have reduced new launcheshellip

hellip this has helped reduce the unsold inventory level and supported capital value growth in key markets except Delhi-NCR

1Q 2017 - Sales

bull Most key city markets have saw declining sales on annual and half-yearly basis

bull However on a QoQ all cities saw sales improvement except Bengaluru where sales declined further by ~8 on QoQ basis

1Q 2017 ndash Price

bull Capital values have continue improve by 3-5 in most key markets

bull However cities like Delhi-NCR Kolkata and Pune have witnessed marginal price correction of around 1-3

709 716 731 747 695 693

1185 1252 1282 1284 1298 1324

717 735 746 767 771 791

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Delhi - NCR Price Mumbai Price Bengaluru Price

(Price in USD per square metre)

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata and Ahmedabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Lodha Group Plans to invest ~USD650 mn during 2017-18 to enhance deliveries of residential projects and launch 8-9 new projects

bull Supertech Shall invest ~USD380 mn to complete 15000 housing units in 2017-18 Also it plans to invest ~USD525-600 mn for launching affordable housing projects of 40000 units

bull Shapoorji Pallonji Plans to launch around 12 residential projects during Aprrsquo17 to Decrsquo18 Currently this is the biggest development plan in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 238

Residential Space ndash Supply Trends

Mumbai amp Bengaluru dominate the new residential apartment supply In 1Q17 most of the new launches have been in the economy segment (INR 2000-3000 per sqft) range across India

16 127

22

13 24

6

7

10

23

24

28

12

12

145

8

487

38 11

7

H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017

Perc

enta

ge s

har

e o

f new

lau

nches

Time (Yearly)

Delhi-NCR Mumbai Chennai Bengaluru

Kolkata Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune

Source Knight Frank

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

Price Category Wise Launches (INR Per square ft)

Less than 2000 2000 - 3000 3000 - 40004000 - 5000 5000 - 7500 7500 - 1000010000 - 15000 More than 15000

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

~106900 ~74000 ~67500

New Residential Apartment Supply Trends Composition of New Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 239

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 240

Retail Space ndash Overall Outlook

The retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes

201 204 238

278 321

368 425

518 490

600 672

1300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Time (Years)

Source Indian Brand Equity Foundation July 2017

92 8776

8 1324

2015 2019E 2020E

Unorganized Organized

bull Currently India has over 15 million Mom and Pop stores (unorganized retail)

bull From FY09 - FY13 organised retail in India has witnessed a CAGR of 19-20

Retail Market Size (US$ Billion) Type of Retail Market in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 241

Retail space demand has remained stagnant across major markets as a result of domestic consumption slump caused by demonetization but is expected to recover in this year

Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

New Supplybull 2017 is likely to see the highest mall space

becoming operational second to 2011 bull High levels of activity are expected 2017

onwards after a prolonged slowdown from 2014 that lasted through 2016

Absorptionbull The domestic consumption story was

impacted by demonetization in the last two months of 2016

bull Business is expected to normalize from 2Q17

Vacancy Ratesbull Indiarsquos overall vacancy rate is expected to

rise on account of new future supplybull The good malls have done well

Rental Ratesbull Rental rates across major retail markets

have remained stable for last 1 year on account of sluggish business activity

65 69

138

4157

13

36

-03

77

106

4542 40

107

45 51

16

33 27

56

79

42

00

50

100

150

200

250

-20

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Com

plet

ions

Ab

sorp

tion

(Mill

ion

Sq F

t)

New Completions Net Absorption Vacancy

Supply Net Absorption and Vacancy of Retail Space in India

441 438 438 438 376

398 397 397

194 213 213 213

2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017

Delhi - NCR Mumbai Bengaluru

(Rental rate in INR per square metre per month)

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 242

Retail Space ndash Mall

Vacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018

Construction Status of Future Supply of Retail Malls (2017- 2019)

48

18

52

68

11

47

3

31

22

2017F 2018F 2019FProposed Excavation Upto Plinth

Less than 50 Structure Readuy 50-100 Structure Ready

Ready for fit-outs

bull In terms of supply 2017 appears to be a strong year with over 77million sq ft of net supply expected to come on stream

bull The good malls are witnessing moderate to good pre-commitmentlevels ranging between 51-75 whereas the average malls areseeing poor pre-commitments of 0-50

bull Key retail completions lined up for 2017 include the RMZ Mall inBengaluru Seawoods Grand Central in Mumbai Palladium Mall inChennai ICC Mall in Pune DLF Mall and Wave Hub Mall in NCRDelhi

bull Of the total retail supply expected in 2017 48 is in the ready forfit-outs stage while 52 is in the 50-100 structure ready stage

bull By end 2017 NCR Delhi will have a Grade A retail stock of 274million sq ft while Mumbai is expected to have a stock of 191million sq ft for Grade A retail space

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 243

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 244

Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist Destination

The travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally

Source Ministry of Tourism India

Indiarsquos Position in the World By Industry Competitiveness 40th By Air transport

Infrastructure 32nd By Price competitiveness 10th

Source Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017

527 563 669 748

865 1045

1143 1290

1432 1614

13 14 14

18 19

18 20

23

23

25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f tou

rist a

rriv

als

(mill

ions

)

Time (Years)Domestic Foreign

Domestic and Foreign Tourist Arrivals Top cities in Foreign Tourist Arrivals by Air in July 2017

GKCNew Delhi

41

Mumbai21

Chennai9

Bengluru8

Kochi7

Others15

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 245

Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming Inventory

Although hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2015

Growth of Room Supply - India

249050

1122840

1464850

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2000-01 2014-15 2019-20

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Brand Inventory across Select Asia Pacific Cities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 246

Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory Trends

Delhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities

Hotel Rooms Statistics across major cities in 2016

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Hotel Class Definition in India (as per Industry)

Star Rating 5 Star 5 Star 4-5 Star 3-4 Star 2 Star or less

Room size gt=38 gt=38 35-38 25-35 lt25

Restaurant gt=3 gt=3 1-2 1-2 Only 1

BarLounge gt=2 1-2 Only 1 Only 1 1 or none

Swimming Pool Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Gym Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Spa Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Concierge Service

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Nomandate

Branded Toiletries

Yes Yes No No No

TrademarkedBeds

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

Interior Quality Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Num

ber o

f roo

ms

Existing Supply (Rooms) Proposed Supply (Rooms)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 247

Hospitality Space ndash Supply Trends

Average room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy

Average Room Rate (US$) across Major Cities

106

61

8879

107102

89

112

7478

94

118

63

950

590

830

730

96 96

81

109

72 75

87

113

61

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 248

Hospitality Space ndash Demand Trends

Occupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year

Occupancy Rate across Major Cities

615

539

581589

617 611

480

697

571

545

678

718

613

571

549

662

627

667 667

509

707

581

609

685

743

657

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 249

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 250

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 251

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 real GDP (constant 2010 USD) accounted for 16 USD trillion showing zero percent Y-o-Y growth compared to -3 in 2015

For 2018 and 2019 GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 17 (World Bank)

Russian economy recession is slowing down with real GDP growth of 0 in 2016

GDP(constant 2010 USD) GDP per capita (constant 2010 USD)

Source World Bank

-10-8-6-4-20246810

00020406081012141618

USD

trilli

on

GDP (constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

-10-8-6-4-20246810

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

USD

GDP per capita(constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 252

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 population of Russia accounted for 1443 million people with 107 million living in urban areas Over the part 10 year share of urban population has grown by 06

Almost 74 of the population live in urban areas and this share is slowly growing

-05

-04

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

milli

on p

eopl

e

Population(million people) Y-o-Y growth

Population million people

Source World Bank

730

732

734

736

738

740

742

Urban population share

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 253

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2015 consumer price index recorded 129 amid RUB depreciation However due to RUB exchange rate stabilization inflation slowed down in 2016 to 54

After significant growth in 2015 inflation was stabilized in 2016 to a manageable level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

RU

RU

SD

RURUSD exchange rate

Source World Bank

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Rosstat

CPI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 254

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 value of mortgage loans accounted increased to 14 RUB trillion (800 thousand loans) The government pursues to increase number of mortgage loans up to 1200 loans by 2020

The mortgage loan market enjoys a strong recovery after decline in 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

- 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(asof Nov)

Thou

sand

uni

ts

RU

B Bi

llion

Mortgage loans value(RUB billion)

Numbe of mortagge loans issued (thousand units)

116

118

12

122

124

126

128

13

132

134

136

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Central Bank of Russia

Mortgage rate Mortgage loans issued (volume and value)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 255

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 256

Residential Market

Russian government is looking to improve the living standards of its citizens and upgrade the quality of urban environment by several stimulation programs

The Moscow housing

renovation program

The Mortgage and rental housing

priority project

ldquoThe Moscow housing renovation programrdquo is aimed at resettlement and demolition of a dilapidated low-rise housing stock built in 1957-1968 and at the new construction in the liberated territory it was submitted on September 26 2017 by the mayor of Moscow Duration of 15-20 years Total financing of 400 RUB billion 6 ml people to be resettled Over 25 ml m2 of residential property to be resettled and demolished (5177 houses = ~10 of total

residential area of Moscow) Similar programs will be potentially extended to other regions of Russia

The main objective of the Mortgage and rental housing priority project is to improve the living conditions of Russian citizens by Ensuring high rates of housing commissioning (goal - commissioning of 88 ml m2 of residential

space in 2018 100 ml m2 of residential space in 2020) Demand stimulation (issuance of 1 ml mortgage loans in 2018 12 ml mortgage loans in 2020)

Basic approaches of achieving the goals of the housing conditions improvement are ensuring high rates of construction of high-quality comfortable and affordable housing by including

inefficiently used federal regional and municipal lands as well as financing the construction of infrastructure as part of integrated development projects

increasing the availability of mortgage loans and reduce financial risks by forming a liquid market for mortgage securities introducing electronic bonds and the worlds best practices for disclosing information

implementation of pilot projects of specialized rental housing by using collective investment mechanisms and developing proposals for the further development of the rental market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 257

Residential Market

Demand in primary housing market significantly increased while growth in secondary market remain modest

In 2016 the number of contracts in primary housing market (new houses) increased by 80 in comparison with 2015

Secondary housing market grew only by 86

Source Konti

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

thou

sand

con

tract

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

thou

sand

con

tract

s

Number of contracts in Moscow secondary housing market(~existing homes)

Number of contracts in Moscow primary housing market(~new homes)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 258

Residential Market

Supply of new houses in Moscow declined in 2016 due to low demand in the previous year

1971 2110

3050 31463342

3920

3385

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

sq

m

46543

33091

22825 23587

4255146352 46080

56171

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

units

Source Rosstat

Commissioned living space in Moscow Number of commissioned flats in Moscow

In 2016 constructed living space accounted for 3385 thousand sq m which is 14 lower as compared with 2015 Decline can be explained by the fact that in 2015 supply outweighed demand by far

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 259

Residential Market

In 4Q 2016 average price of new residential housing accounted for 155 thousand RUBsq m which is approx 15 lower as compared with the same period of the previous year

Average price in secondary housing market declined by 4 (1809 thousand RUB sq m)

Average price growth in both primary and secondary Moscow residential market remain negative

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

thou

sand

RU

Bsq

m

Source Rosstat

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

thou

sand

RU

B sq

m

Average price of primary housing in Moscow Average price of secondary housing in Moscow

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 260

Residential Market

Supply of new housing in 2016 and average price in Moscow very depending on administrative district

District Average price(RUB per sq m) as of Dec 2016

Supply share as of Dec 2016

1 Central Administrative District 250900 12

2 Northern Administrative District 166800 13

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 168100 12

4 Eastern Administrative District 200300 8

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 145400 9

6 Southern Administrative District 179000 11

7 South-Western Administrative District 173400 8

8 Western Administrative District 212900 12

9 North-Western Administrative District 238900 18

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 88100 1

Source Blackwood

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 261

Residential Market

Backup information population of Moscow

District Population people

1 Central Administrative District 768280

2 Northern Administrative District 1158528

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 1413739

4 Eastern Administrative District 1505801

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 1380668

6 Southern Administrative District 1774351

7 South-Western Administrative District 1426227

8 Western Administrative District 1362701

9 North-Western Administrative District 988423

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 237897

1118711282

11504

1177711857

1198012108

1219812330

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Population by district as of 2016Population of Moscow thousand people

Source Rosstat Source City Population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 262

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 263

Office Market

In 2016 construction of offices fell to 313 thousand sq m which is the lowest figure over the past decade Total stock of offices accounted for 17 thousand sq m

Construction of offices has shown negative growth since 2014

Source Colliers

Total stock in Moscow

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total area of office completions in Moscow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 264

Office Market

Demand has showed negative growth in Moscow office market since 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total take-up in Moscow thousand sq m

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Source Colliers

Vacancy rate

The annual transaction volume in Moscow accounted for 850000 sq m (115 decline ) Vacancy rate for A class offices fell to by nearly 7 while B class vacancy rate remained the same

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 265

Office Market

Backup information take-up structure in Moscow

24

16

109

9

5

5

4

332

1

9

Manufacturing

Professional services

Public

Retail

IT amp Telecoms

EnergyIndustrial

Pharmacy and life science

Banking Insurance ampInvestmentConstruction anddevelopmentAutomative

Media

Vehicles Transport ampLogisticsOther

Take-up structure by sector in 2015Take-up structure by type of deal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

rent sale

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 266

Office Market

Average rental rate in USD significantly declined in 2015 due to local currency devaluation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Average rental rate USD sq m per annum in Moscow

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 267

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 268

Retail Market

Backup information total stock in Moscow and Russia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Total stock in Moscow thousand sq m Total stock in Russia thousand sq m

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 269

Retail Market

In 2016 construction of shopping centers in Moscow fell by nearly 32 to 424 thousand sq m The decline in figures for the whole country accounted for 14

Construction of shopping center has been declining since 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Source Colliers

Completion (GLA) in Moscow thousand sq m Completion (GLA) in Russia thousand sq m

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 270

Retail Market

Despite current economic condition in 2015 number of brands entered the Moscow market still far outweighs number of brands that left

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

International brands left Moscow market

International brands enterd Moscow market

Number of international brands entered Moscow market units

Source Colliers

53

22

8

17

Fashion Children goods Catering Other

Structure of brands entering Moscow in 2015

In 2015 36 new international brands entered the Moscow market while 11 announced to leave

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 271

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 272

Hotel Market

Hotel supply has been staying at the nearly the same level since 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

hote

ls u

nits

room

s u

nits

Number of rooms Number of hotels

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

num

ber o

f hot

els

room

sun

its

Number of rooms Number of hotels

Source Rosstat

Supply of hotels in Moscow Supply of hotels in Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 273

Hotel Market

Number of overnight stays in hotels also has not faced significant changes

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source Rosstat

Number of stays in hotels Moscow Number of stays in hotels Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 274

Hotel Market

As of 2016 year nearly 15000 rooms are managed by international hotel operators in the Moscow market The reawakening of Russian and international hotel chains in 2016-2017 is based heavily on the forthcoming FIFA

World

The Moscow hotel market is dominated by optimistic moods - despite tough economic conditions hoteliers noted that demand has grown since 2015

Indicator 2015 2016

Total supply of hotels managed by international operators

52 58

Number of rooms managed by international hotel operators

13 723 14 942

Average price of a sold room (ADR) Rublesday 7 245 7 815

Yield per room (RevPAR) Rublesday 4 890 5 650

Occupancy rate 675 723

Tourist flow million people 171 175

22

18

15

14

7

6

6

48

AccorHotels

InterContinental HotelsGroupCarlson Rezidor HotelGroupMarriott International

Best Western

Starwood Hotels andResorts WorldwideHilton Worldwide

AZIMUT Hotels

Others

Source Colliers

Key indicators of Moscow hotel marketMajor international hotel operators in 2016 of numbers of rooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 275

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 276

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 277

1 Macro Economy

The United States of America can be divided into 4 regions

The 4 regions of the USA include Northeast Midwest South and West

Source) US Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

Northeast South Midwest West

New York Boston Dallas Houston Chicago DetroitLos Angeles

SeattleSan

Francisco

Population ndash Ppl(2016)

8537673 673184 1317929 2303482 2704958 672795 3976322 704352 870887

GDP ndash $M USD(2016)

1657457 422660 511606 478618 651222 252691 1001677 330409 470529

Northeast Midwest

WestSouth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 278

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

Cal

iforn

iaW

ashi

ngto

nA

rizo

naC

olo

rado

Ore

gon

Uta

hN

evad

aN

ew M

exic

oId

aho

Haw

aii

Mont

ana

Ala

ska

Wyo

min

gTex

asFlo

rida

Georg

iaN

ort

h C

arolin

aV

irgi

nia

Ten

ness

eeM

aryl

and

South

Car

olin

aA

laba

ma

Loui

sian

aKen

tuck

yO

klah

om

aM

issi

ssip

piA

rkan

sas

Wes

t V

irgi

nia

Del

awar

eD

istr

ict

of C

olu

mbi

aN

ew Y

ork

Pen

nsyl

vania

New

Jer

sey

Mas

sachu

sett

sC

onn

ect

icut

New

Ham

pshi

reM

aine

Rho

de Isl

and

Ver

mont

Illin

ois

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Mis

sour

iW

isco

nsin

Min

neso

taIo

wa

Kan

sas

Neb

rask

aSouth

Dak

ota

1 Macro Economy

The population of California is 392 million Texas 278 million Florida 206 million New York 197 million and Illinois 128 million

Regarding the state-wise population California is the most populous state followed by Texas Florida New York and Illinois

Source) USCensus Bureau

State-wise population (2016)

NortheastSouthWest Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 279

1 Macro Economy

Among the top 20 cities in terms of population 6 belong to Texas The 5 cities that had their annual growth rate more than 2 after 2010 are as follows

Austin Texas 254 Seattle Washington 241 Denver Colorado 234 Fort Worth Texas 222 Charlotte North Carolina 221

In the metropolitan cities the population of New York and Los Angeles exceeds 30 millionAmong the top 20 cities in terms of population the annual growth rate of 5 cities exceeds 2 after 2010

Population (Top 20 Cities 2016)

Source) US Census Bureau

07 08

00

1518

04

19

1216

12

25

11 13 14

07

22 2224 23

08

00051015202530

-

3000000

6000000

9000000

Population (left) CAGR from 2010 to 2016 (right)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 280

1 Macro Economy

The real GDP was increased by 88 from $156 trillion in Q3 2013 to $170 trillion in Q2 2017 The real estate business grew by 27 in the most recent quarter and became the main driver of economic growth

The US real GDP has been continuously growing for the past 4 years (except Q1 2014)

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

($ billion)

Trends of real GDP Trends of GDP growth rate

Billions of chained (2009) dollars ()

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 281

Regarding the state-wise real GDP California has the highest real GDP of $25 trillion followed by Texas and New York with approximately $15 trillion However the other states have their real GDP below $1 trillion

1 Macro Economy

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

State-wise real GDP (Top 20 states Q1 2017)

($ billion)

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Millions of chained (2009) dollars

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 282

1 Macro Economy

Especially the growth rate of southern states including Texas and New Mexico was relatively high

The real GDP of 43 states and the District of Columbia grew between 2015 and 2016

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP growth by states (2015 -2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 283

1 Macro Economy

The rate of unemployment is suddenly increased after collapsing the Dotcom bubble and the Lehman shock After October 2009 it turns to decrease

In August 2017 the unemployment rate is 44 and the number of unemployed is 71 million

The unemployment rate recorded in June 2017 was 43 which was the lowest in the past 20 years

Source) US Bureau of Labor Statistics

43

63

100

44

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Lehman shock

Dotcom bubble

collapse

Unemployment rate (1997 to 2007)

()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 284

Through blockchain technology all involved parties can have a copy of the original data record allowing near-real time data record access and updates safe from tampering

The US commercial real estate market has a particular interest in the following benefits Listing Management ndash To effectively manage real estate listing data of any property in the world Secure Data Exchange ndash To securely manage data of tenant owners etc Efficient Contracting ndash To speed up exchange of data contract etc

The US market has been slowly exploring blockchain technology for commercial real estate applications

Users Data Record

Blockchain in Real Estate Overview

Blockchain

Listing Management

Secure Data Exchange

Efficient Contracting

Blockchain

Blockchain

Blockchain

1 Macro Economy

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 285

Through smart contracts blockchain technology can revolutionize how commercial real estate market parties contract

1 Macro Economy

Smart Contract Timeline Overview

Smart contracts are applications to securely execute contractual terms between involved parties through blockchain technology

Tenant Landlord Tenant Tenant Landlord

bull Tenant and landlord sign smart contract to initiate lease agreement

bull Agreement includes rental value payment terms and party details

bull Smart contract will start to enforce payment terms thus initiating lease payments from tenant to landlord

bull Upon termination of lease contract contract returns the security deposit payment to the tenant after adjustments for damages

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Landlord

Pre-Lease During Lease Post-Lease

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 286

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 287

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The most recent commercial real estate price is far larger than the previous highest of 2007Although the price continued to increase after the Lehman shock it is at peak in 2016 second half

1269

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Trends of Commercial real estate price (Commercial Property Price Index)

Source) Green Street AdvisorsMainly the prime commercial properties (real estate) were targeted

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 288

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The total amount of transactions was increased in all sectors between 2014 and 2015In 2016 only the number of apartments was increased the other real estates were declined

116

130

89

51

36

153 151

90 78

50

159

143

76

59

36

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Apartments Office Retail Industrial Hotel

2014 2015 2016

($ bil)

Trends in Transaction amount of commercial real estates (including transactions equal to or more than 25 billion)

Source) Colliers International

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 289

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

00

10

20

30

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

米国10年国債利回り(左軸) 米国REIT価格指数(右軸)

2 Real Estate Investment Market

If the future interest rates will rise the REIT price would fall in the short term Then it will rise in the medium and long term

Trends in Cap rate of main sectors

Source) NAREIT Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

REIT price index has been calculated based on FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Total Index

20134-20138Yield on the government bonds +11 pointsREIT -13

20151-20156Yield on the government bonds +07 pointsREIT -11

20167-201611Yield on the government bonds +09 pointsREIT -12

Yield on 10-year government bonds (Left axis)

USArsquos REIT price index (Right axis)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 290

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 291

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Regarding the residential market of the USA houses which were built for sale purpose accounted for 50 custom houses accounted for 15 and rental apartments that have increasingly become common in recent years accounted for 30

Trends of Residential market structure in Japan

1 Existing housing stock data pertains to FY 20132 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor and field supervisor There are three types of construction methods 1) The landlord

takes the responsibility for partial construction and asks a local contractor for the remaining construction 2) The landlord gives the task of entire construction to a local contractor 3) The landlord undertakes the entire construction work(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the landlord When the landlords construct on their own partial work of construction is given to a local contractor)

3 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor The local contractor is hired as the field supervisor and landlord does not construct at all These also include houses used for rental purpose (example temporary house of a clergyman)(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the local contractor)

Unit 10000 houses Japan Unit 10000 houses US

Number of new housing starts

967 (100) Starts by Purpose 1174 (100)

Owner-occupied houses (custom houses)

292 (30)Owner built2 49 (4)

Contractor built3 116 (10)

Sale in lots 251 (26) Built for sale 607 (52)

Detached houses 134 (14)Single-familyUnits

579 (49)

Mansions 117 (12)Building with 2units or more

28 (2)

Houses on lease (including those received as allowance)

424 (44) Built for rent 402 (34)

Existing housing stock 169 (17) Used house sales 549 (468)

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 292

In 2016 rental housing constructions were less than the preceding year

The number of detached housing construction sharply declined after reaching its peak in 2005However after hitting its lowest level in 2011 the situation became improved In parallel rental housing construction has also been growing

Trends of New housing constructions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 unit Built for sale

1 unit Contractor-built

1 unit Owner-built

2+ units For sale

2+ unitsFor rent

(Thousands)

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 293

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Less than 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

1995 2005 2015

For 10 years after 2005 the rate of house-owners who are the 25-44 year-old people had significantly declined With the decrease of houses owned by the young generation the demand for rental houses rapidly increased

Age-wise housing acquisition rate

-5 points

-10points

-10 points

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 294

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

After the Lehman shock the southern and western regions started recovering and restored to their status as in the 1990s However the midwest and north-eastern regions remained the same

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

Trends of new housing constructions (Detached houses)

(Thousands)

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 295

-

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Texa

sFl

orid

aN

orth

Car

olin

aG

eorg

iaSo

uth

Car

olin

aTe

nnes

see

Virg

inia

Loui

sian

aAl

abam

aM

aryl

and

Okl

ahom

aKe

ntuc

kyAr

kans

asM

issi

ssip

piD

elaw

are

Wes

t Virg

inia

Dis

trict

of C

olum

bia

Cal

iforn

iaAr

izon

aW

ashi

ngto

nC

olor

ado

Uta

hN

evad

aO

rego

nId

aho

New

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Haw

aii

Wyo

min

gAl

aska

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Min

neso

taM

isso

uri

Wis

cons

inIll

inoi

sIo

wa

Kans

asN

ebra

ska

Sout

h D

akot

aN

orth

Dak

ota

Penn

sylv

ania

New

Yor

kN

ew J

erse

yM

assa

chus

etts

Mai

neN

ew H

amps

hire

Con

nect

icut

Verm

ont

Rho

de Is

land

Texas and Florida in the southern region stood out with the maximum number of approvals for the construction of detached houses In looking at the other regions California had more than 50000 approvals but the rest had 30000 or less

NortheastSouth West Midwest

State-wise number of Approvals for new housing constructions (Detached houses 2016)

(Number of approvals)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 296

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

San Jose

San Francisco

Honolulu

San Diego

Los Angeles

Houston

Dallas

Atlanta

Phoenix

Washington

Seattle

New YorkDenver

BostonPortland

In the metropolitan areas in south such as Texas have a great number of new housing constructions while cities with high residential prices are concentrated in California

Main southern cities

Main cities in California

Other mature cities in the entire USA

City-wise Residential prices and Approvals for new housing constructions (2016)

Prices of detached houses (in thousand dollars)

Num

ber o

f appro

vals for d

etac

hed h

ouse

starts

Source US Census Bureau National Association of Realtors

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 297

The number of rental housing constructions was suddenly increasing after 2009 but the number constructions was decreasing after 2015 except for the western region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

(Thousands)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 298Source) US Census Bureau

The calculation has been done based on the running average of data for all the four quarters

Trends in percentage of owner-occupied houses Trends in Percentage of vacant houses

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

The rate of owned houses and vacant houses continued to decrease together but this fall came to the end in 2016

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 20170 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 299

There is no any significant change in the trends of most recent rents

Trends of region-wise rent (Median)

($)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

西部

北東部

南部

中西部

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

West

Northeast

South

Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 300

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

Source US Census Bureau

Number of new housing starts

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The Seattle metropolitan area includes 3 counties ndash Snohomish King and Pierce

After the Lehman shock many large-scale apartments were constructed in the Seattle metropolitan area (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA)

(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 301

The average price of detached houses is about $500000 With land prices the cost of construction is also sharply risen

Year Land HomeValue

Structure Cost Land Value

2000 $278695 $112257 $166438 5972001 $292826 $119354 $173471 5922002 $303519 $121947 $181572 5982003 $323773 $125821 $197952 6112004 $359056 $141585 $217471 6062005 $424912 $152219 $272692 6422006 $479951 $163874 $316077 6592007 $488499 $172756 $315744 6462008 $431855 $186623 $245231 5682009 $387317 $191347 $195970 5062010 $368625 $194053 $174572 4742011 $346949 $204023 $142926 4122012 $372227 $207086 $165142 4442013 $419730 $215593 $204137 4862014 $446107 $233255 $212852 4772015 $488054 $236426 $251628 516

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Q4 data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 302

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

Regarding the Seattlersquos local residential market more than 50 of the houses are apartments In the suburbs the number of detached houses and apartments are almost same

Source US Census Bureau

Figure showing the Seattle city and the surrounding areasNumber of approvals for housing starts in Areas surrounding

the Seattle city (King County) (2016)

Other areas refer to the total number of cities in the King Country

SeattleBellevue

Redmond

Other area

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Other areas

Redmond

Bellevue

Seattle

1-unit 2-units and up (House)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 303

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The vacancy rate of rental houses is rapidly decreasing which is less than 3 in the all metropolitan areas In the post-2014 the standard rent of Seattle was significantly higher than the average rent of metropolitan areas

Trends of Vacancy rate Trends of Rent (Median)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

$400

$600

$800

$1000

$1200

$1400

$1600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

0~

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 304

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The number of new housing constructions (including both detached houses and apartments) in the Dallas metropolitan area (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA) showed recovery with more than 25000 constructions

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

0

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 305

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The average price of detached houses is $250000The cost of construction is dramatically rising accounting for 70 of the home value

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Year Land ShareHome Value Structure

Cost Land Value

2000 $173678 $92517 $81161 467

2001 $182559 $98406 $84154 461

2002 $186525 $100648 $85877 460

2003 $187431 $104288 $83143 444

2004 $190797 $116052 $74745 392

2005 $199596 $124130 $75466 378

2006 $202951 $132730 $70221 346

2007 $200595 $139192 $61403 306

2008 $193454 $150854 $42599 220

2009 $196089 $150857 $45232 231

2010 $189138 $153876 $35263 186

2011 $187611 $161438 $26173 140

2012 $198238 $163952 $34286 173

2013 $218014 $169417 $48597 223

2014 $234604 $182252 $52352 223

2015 $256583 $236426 $72860 284

Q4 data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 306

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the cities such as Dallas Fort Worth Frisco and McKinney a large number of detached houses and apartments are constructed In particular the surrounding areas of Dallas have mainly apartments whereas the northern region mainly has detached houses

Main cities in the suburbs of Dallas Number of approvals for housing starts in main cities (2016)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Detached houses

+ Apartments

FortWorth

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Celina

Prosper

Little Elm

Irving

Farmers Branch

Carrollton

Garland

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Farmers Branch

Garland

Carrollton

Irving

Prosper town

Celina

Little Elm

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Fort Worth

1-unit 2-units and up

Mainly detached houses

Mainly apartments

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 307

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the northern part of Dallas there are successive expansions and relocations of offices of large companies The increase in employment depends on the increase in population

Large-scale offices recently relocated to areas surrounding the Fresco city

Source Plano Economic Development

Company name ServiceYear of

completionNumber of employees

Capital One Finance Headquarter 2017 5500

JP Morgan Chase amp CoUnder

construction6000

NTT DataNorth America

HQ2017 2250

West Plano

submarket

Frisco

Location of each city

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 308

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 309

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

4 Office market

Since the 2008 global financial crisis US employment has been recovering quickly

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

US unemployment rate is lower than it had been a decade ago before the financial crisis consequently leading to an increase in those in the US workforce

US Unemployment Rate US Employees

Rate ()

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

Employees(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 310

4 Office market

The US has also witnessed a rise in the number of new established companies thus presenting new opportunities for office real estate market

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

Each year the number of established companies less than 1 year old or newly established companies has been rising since the financial crisis

Corporate Establishments Less than 1 Year Old

400

500

600

700

800

No of Established Co(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 311

Among New York Houston Chicago and San Francisco Houston is the only city headed downwards in GDP

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

4 Office market

Certain cities in the US have shown comparably noticeable traits of market opportunities

New York

Houston

Chicago

San Francisco

GDP ndash New York Houston Chicago San Francisco

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP($B USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 312

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 313

5 Hotel market

With the increasing number of trips the US hotel industry will soon face the need for more lodging space

Source) US Travel Association

The number of people traveling is increasing eventually requiring more accommodation spaces The number of domestic travels within the US is far higher than the number of international travels to the US

Travels within US (Domestic) Travels to US (International)

170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 314

By class segmentations the higher-end hotels have been constructing more hotel spaces to respond to the rising demands

US hotel classes are segmented by primarily according to average room rates In a descending order the segmentation follows Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale

Economy Unaffiliated hotels are hotels not affiliated with a member organization thus varying widely in size quality and cost

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Feb 2017) Under Construction (Feb 2017)

Luxury

Upper Upscale

Upscale

Midscale

Unaffiliated

Economy

Upper Midscale

236

1167

1383

1795

937

1524

2958

437

1412

31933254

432121

1152

Pric

e

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 315

By cities New York has been constructing double triple the amount of hotels compared to other metropolitan areas

Although Las Vegas leads in the total number of existing hotels New York has been constructing more hotel spaces

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Mar 2017) Under Construction (Mar 2017)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 316

5 Hotel market

Even by some of the more well-known tourist destination cities the RevPAR is predicted to continue to increase

Source) HVS Global Hospitality Services

Like the nationwide trend individual cities have also experienced slow growth in terms of RevPAR since the 2008 global financial crisis

New York is notably much higher in terms of RevPAR in comparison to other metropolitan cities

US Hotels ndash RevPAR by City

New York NY

Los Angeles CA

Washington DC

Las Vegas NV

Chicago IL

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rev ($ USD)

Estimated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 317

5 Hotel market

While Airbnb does pose as an lodging alternative to hotels the performance of one market does not impact the other

Source) Boston University

Boston University conducted research on the relationship between Airbnb and hotels in Boston Though Airbnb experienced increases in occupancy growth and RevPAR the gains did not affect the Boston hotelsrsquo

performance

Hotels

Airbnb

Boston ndash Occupancy amp RevPAR (2015-2016)

Occupancy Rate ()

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

Rev ($ USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

中国

Yinghua BAI PhDNRI Shanghai Division Manager

Expertise urban planning regional development and planning of real estate business strategy

Wen WANGNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise regional development industrial strategy and planning of real estate business strategy

Siwei LIUNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise real estate business strategy China marketingbusiness strategy of Japanese companies

Fang QINRI Shanghai Asst Consultant

Expertise regional development planning of real estate business strategy

韓国

JaRyong CHOINRI Seoul Sr Exec Director

Expertise real estate and retail business strategy urban and regional development investment planning

KangTae PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

SungWoo PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

台湾

Michihiro KONAGAINRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise infrastructure development and business strategy planning in infrastructure market

Chi han CHIANGNRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise policy and development planning PPP advisory in land development domain

Jen-hua LiuNRI Taiwan Asst Consultant

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

シンガポール

Toshiro TAKEKOSHINRI Singapore Department Head

Expertise infrastructure (real estate energy) business management and business strategies cross border MampA

Yen-Fen TEOHNRI Singapore Sr Consultant

Sana TAMURANRI Singapore Consultant

Ceputra SALIMNRI Singapore Assoc Consultant

タイ

Yuji KatoNRI Thailand Gr Manager

Expertise infrastructure business (real estate energy) finance

Panitha TeerasorakaiNRI Thailand Consultant

Orachorn SupunsaleekhulNRI Thailand Business Analyst

インド

Arpit MATHURNRI India Sr Consultant

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy and alliances real estate development support etc

Prashant AGGARWALNRI India Consultant

Expertise MampA transaction advisory business strategy financial modelling and business planning etc

Junmyong RANRI India Group Manager

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy ASEAN business strategy investment advisory etc

SungYun (Sonny) KIMNRI India President

Expertise Real estate investment market incl behavioral investment securitization financial crisis etc

Hikojiro ISOZAKINRI Global Knowledge Centre Head

Expertise Automotive and Infrastructure sector advisory investment strategy etc

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

ロシア

Andrei RODIONOVMoscow Br Div Director

Expertise business strategy global marketing MampA

Alexander KHARKOVMoscow Br Consultant

Expertise marketing in Russia business strategy economic regulation

アメリカ

Keitaro HiroseNRI Consultant

Expertise Business Strategy in Real estate and Infrastructure industry

Joshua ChoiNRI America Sr Research Analyst

Expertise Business Strategy IoT Emerging Technology

Makiko TanakaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy Fintech AI

Sherry KitajimaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy AI

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

Contact

Inquiry about this report generally or our solutions for real estate industry[Mail] real-estate-reportnricojp [Language] Japanese English

Inquiry about contents of each sectionChina [Mail] real-estate-report-CHNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Original) EnglishKorea [Mail] real-estate-report-KORnricojp [Language] Japanese Korean EnglishTaiwan [Mail] real-estate-report-TWNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Simplified) EnglishSingapore [Mail] real-estate-report-SGPnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishThailand [Mail] real-estate-report-THAnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishIndia [Mail] real-estate-report-INDnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishRussia [Mail] real-estate-report-RUSnricojp [Language] English RussianUSA [Mail] real-estate-report-USAnricojp [Language] Japanese English

Inquiry about reprinting or quotation of this report[Mail] kouhounricojp [Language] Japanese English

  • The Global Real Estate Market 2017
  • スライド番号 2
  • スライド番号 3
  • スライド番号 4
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • スライド番号 18
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Land Market in China
  • スライド番号 25
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Residential Market in China
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • House supply policy of China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Prospects of Chinas residential market
  • スライド番号 36
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • スライド番号 45
  • Prospects of commercial real estate market in China
  • スライド番号 47
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • スライド番号 51
  • スライド番号 52
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • スライド番号 60
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • スライド番号 68
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • スライド番号 76
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • スライド番号 82
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • スライド番号 89
  • スライド番号 90
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • スライド番号 98
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • スライド番号 104
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • スライド番号 113
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • スライド番号 117
  • (Reference)
  • スライド番号 119
  • Population Trend
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks
  • スライド番号 128
  • Office market- Geographic Area
  • Office market- Stock and Vacancy
  • Office market- Price and Rental Index
  • Office market- Future Supply
  • Office market- Cap rate
  • スライド番号 134
  • Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate
  • Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property
  • Residential market ndashFuture Supply
  • Residential market-Cap Rate
  • スライド番号 142
  • Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate
  • Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space
  • Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore
  • Retail market-CAP Rate
  • Retail market- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 148
  • Logistics Space- Geographic Area
  • Logistics Space- Demand Trend
  • Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy
  • Logistics Space- Rental Index
  • Logistics Space- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 154
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)
  • Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply
  • Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue
  • Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline
  • スライド番号 162
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • スライド番号 167
  • スライド番号 168
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • スライド番号 181
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • スライド番号 187
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies
  • スライド番号 199
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • スライド番号 204
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • スライド番号 210
  • スライド番号 211
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population GrowthIndia is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid UrbanizationIndia is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of EconomyAlthough the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world
  • スライド番号 217
  • Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and GrowthThe construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure
  • Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players PerformanceThe real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes
  • Financing Developments ndash Project Financing OptionsPrivate lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed
  • Financing Developments Trends in REITsREITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry
  • Financing Developments Trends in Domestic InvestmentsDomestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects
  • Financing Developments Trends in Foreign InvestmentsForeign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics
  • Financing Developments Debt position of leading developersDebt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default
  • スライド番号 225
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesGlobal PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesMajor global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesRecently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion
  • スライド番号 229
  • Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy ConditionsFDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years however recent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector
  • スライド番号 231
  • Regulatory Developments ndash DemonetizationDemonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017
  • スライド番号 233
  • Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal SizeThe ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad
  • Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costsNew Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list
  • スライド番号 237
  • Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Residential Space ndash Supply Trends
  • スライド番号 240
  • Retail Space ndash Overall OutlookThe retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes
  • Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Retail Space ndash MallVacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018
  • スライド番号 244
  • Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist DestinationThe travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally
  • Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming InventoryAlthough hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory TrendsDelhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply TrendsAverage room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy
  • Hospitality Space ndash Demand TrendsOccupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year
  • スライド番号 250
  • スライド番号 251
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • スライド番号 256
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • スライド番号 263
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • スライド番号 268
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • スライド番号 272
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • スライド番号 276
  • スライド番号 277
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • スライド番号 287
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • スライド番号 291
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • スライド番号 309
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • スライド番号 313
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • スライド番号 319
  • スライド番号 320
  • スライド番号 321
  • スライド番号 322
  • スライド番号 323
Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized
03 4919 2929 0 0 0 0 0 0
04 12344 6189 5458 0 0 0 0 0
05 24064 15716 7312 9248 0 0 0 0
06 35082 20048 14636 11758 3173 0 0 0
07 72317 42532 34987 1854 7953 1223 1446 0
08 6508 3439 26179 1561 762 10519 6422 0
09 4945 28821 20857 10018 3758 4861 5197 0
10 76738 47631 39742 17782 6188 1220 7522 0
11 104025 87777 5322 27407 12393 16405 13105 0
12 112013 93221 56364 24259 11898 1450 13616 0
13 130698 107712 68086 47917 15109 31961 17999 0
14 159443 115798 80495 64488 1741 4230 18342 0
15 163131 109375 75232 6225 16744 45395 18358 6831
16 168423 127015 82747 6425 13784 41719 19079 7627
17 172877 138636 90674 69255 18147 46492 18982 1031
03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03
04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04
05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
Page 6: The Global Real Estate Market 2017 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 5

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

Real GDP growth rate has been on a downward trend since 2007and it hasreachedthe lowest level in 2015 whichrsquos behind the transition from investment-led growth to consumption-led growth

Source The National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes in real GDP growth rate of China and sectoral contribution

()

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Net Exports Gross Capital Formation Consumption Real GDP Growth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 6

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

The national average of per capita GDP in 2015 increased by 3222 yuan as compared with 2014 Just as the three big cities of Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Jiangsu Province has also reached high income national standard of US$12616

(RMB)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note World Bank definition of high-income country GDP per capita ge USD 12616 (about RMB 83619 according to the rate on November 1 2017)

High-income country Average RMB 83619

GDP per capita by provincemunicipality directly under the central government (2015)

China Average RMB 50251(2014 data RMB 46629)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 7

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

In the background of industrial upgrading the tertiary industries have been growing with their contribution to a GDP growth of over 50 in 2016 This growth became the main factor for increasing real estate investment in urban areas

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(100 mil Yuan)

Trends of Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Overall GDP GDP of tertiary industries Percentage of tertiary industries accounting for in GDP

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 8

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth

From 2014 to 2015 the proportion of tertiary industry was increasing in every region Shanxi Gansu Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces showed particularly high growth rates of more than 5

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Percentage of tertiary industry GDP as a whole by region (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Beiji

ng

Shan

ghai

Xiz

ang

Hai

nan

Shan

xi

Tia

njin

g

Heilo

ngjia

ng

Gua

ngd

ong

Zhejia

ng

Gan

su

Jia

ngsu

Chongq

ing

Lia

oni

ng

Shan

dong

Yunna

n

Gui

zhou

Xin

jiang

Nin

gxia

Hunan

Sic

huan

Hube

i

Fik

oam

Qin

ghai

Shan

xi

Neim

eng

gu

Henan

Hebe

i

Jia

ngxi

Anh

ui

Jili

n

Gua

ngx

i

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2015)

Percentage of Tertiary Industries Accounting for in GDP(2014)

China Average(2015)502

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 9

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population

The peak-out of productive-age population is coming therersquos a widespread concern about economic slowdown

Source Compiled by NRI from UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

(1950=100)Peak

Productive-age population of China and Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 10

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

After 2015 when it is estimated Chinas demographic dividend disappears the government has to face an increased financial burden a decrease of the labor force a consumption slump and other problems due to a declining birthrate and aging population

As a countermeasure in January 2016 the government abolished the ldquoOne-child policyrdquo and formally adopted the ldquoTwo-childrdquo policy At present there are many families who canrsquot produce the second child due to high childcare expenses and education costs However looking at the remarkable population increase in 2016 it can be seen that this policy was effective

The number of births in China in 2016 was 1788 million which increased by 132 million compared with 1654 million the averagenumber of births from 2012 to 2015

On the other hand for the proportion of people over 65 years old it has exceeded 10 in 2016 following Japan China is predicted to enter an aging society after 2025 and into a super aged society after 2035( If the aging rate exceeds 14 it is classified as aged society if over 21 it is classified as super aged society)

As the measures to cope with declining production population and the rise in the number of elderly population Two-child policy has been officially introduced since 2016 which is expected to boost economic growth

() ()

Change in proportion of young population (lt15)

Source UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision

Change in proportion of 65+ population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 11

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Chinarsquos urbanization rate had risen by more than 30 points from 1991 to 2016 The National New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) was issued by the State Council of China on 16th March 2014 The plan highlights

that it is essential to raise the quality of urbanization that comes in line with the Chinese approach to urbanization The plan also underlined that by 2020 permanent urban residents will reach approx 60 of the population while residents in the city census register will account for approx 45 of the total population with 100 million rural residents settling down in the urban areas

Urbanization rate in 2016 reached 574 which is expected to reach 60 of the policy goal in 2020 in another two years

Note) Total population in 2020 is the estimate value of UN while the urbanization rate is the target value stated in government policy

(10000 People )

Source China Statistical Yearbook amp UN World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision

Population and urbanization rate in china

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

30000

60000

90000

120000

150000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20ETotal Population Urban Population Urban Population Ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 12

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes

Urbanization which has progressed mainly in the coastal area has progressed to inland regions and the Northeast such as Liaoning Chongqing Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang The four provinces of Tibet Shandong Guizhou and Hebei are particularly fast to progress in this year

Urbanization rate of China by area (compared to 2014 versus 2015)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Shan

ghai

Bei

jing

Tia

njin

gG

uangd

ong

Lia

onin

gJia

ngs

uZhe

jiang

Fik

oam

Cho

ngq

ing

Neim

eng

guH

eilo

ngj

iang

Shan

dong

Hube

iJili

nN

ingx

iaH

aina

nShan

xiShan

xiJia

ngx

iH

ebe

iH

una

nA

nhu

iQ

ingh

aiSic

hua

nXin

jiang

Gua

ngx

iH

ena

nYunn

anG

ansu

Gui

zhou

Xiz

ang

2014 Ratio() 2015 Ratio()

China Average(2015)561

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 13

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions

Although the newly constructed housing construction area in the urban area which peaked in 2011 had a somewhat declining trend since 2011 when the real estate market regulation were implemented it still was over 1 billion square meters per year

(100 million m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics amp MOHURD China

(m2 per capita)

Changes in construction area of new houses in urban areas Changes in housing area per capita in urban areas

CAGR174

Note) Until 2012 public data from the National Bureau of Statistics is used while the data of 2013 -2016used is published by MOHURD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 14

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend

In the past 16 years the per capita disposable income in urban areas increased at an average growth rate of more than 10 indicating a steady growth in Chinas urban Individual consumption ability

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(RMB)

Disposable Income per Capita and Growth Rate in Urban Areas

CAGR107

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 15

Nationwide average 62 of household income per capita is due to salary income and 17 is due to transfer income The cities with high property revenues including real estate income are Beijing (15) Shanghai (14) Zhejiang (11) and Yunnan (11)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Note Salary income wage income Business revenue revenue from commercial buying and selling activities Asset income revenue from moveables and real estate Transfer income income from severance pay pension etc

(RMB)

Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

Source of annual household income per capita of urban population by region (2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 16

Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend

The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2015 exceeded 30 billion yuan which was 77 times as much as that of 2000 Especially since 2007 it increased at an annual growth rate of 16 per year and urged construction demand of commercial facilities

(100 mil Yuan)

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and Its Growth Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 17

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 18

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment which shows about 20 of fixed asset investment in urban areas has expanded at a rate of 20 since 2000 However it has declined to a low level due to the recent slowdown in fixed assets growth

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Changes of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

Growth Rate Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment in Urban Areas

CAGR218

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 19

Chinas Real Estate Investment

In the three areas of Beijing (56) Shanghai (55) and Hainan (51) real estate investment in urban fixed asset investment is high In proportion to other areas the areas of less than 50 is more than 18 of nationwide average

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

National Average (18)

The Ratio of Real Estate Investment in Urban Fixed Asset Investment by Region in 2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 20

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Regarding the ratio of real estate investment to fixed asset investment all of the regions declined in 2015 compared to the previous year except for North China region Real estate activities are still most active in the southwestern region

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi ShandongSouth Central China Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi HainanSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Comparison of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region in 2015

Overtime Comparison of Growth Rate of Proportion of Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate Investment by Region (2014-2015)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 21

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Real estate investment in Urban China has been a major driving force in GDP growth so far In recent years the growth of GDP is slowing somewhat due to the slump in real estate investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The conventional housing distribution system was abolished

Change in Growth Rates of GDP and of Real Estate Investment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 22

Chinas Real Estate Investment

Even if the real estate investment value rises year by year 23 of that is still housing investment

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The Percentage of HousingCommercialOffice Investments in Real Estate Investment (2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 23

Land Market in China

In urban areas of China both commercial and residential land tend to be higher and in terms of historical trends prices of residential land and commercial land will rise at a pace that is significantly higher than the overall average Land price is continuously increasing

While the land supply of urban areas is restricted by the government intense bid auction between real estate development companies is also a factor that invariably leads to an increase in land prices

Land price temporarily declined in 2011 due to the influence of real estate market regulation but after that its turning again to an upward trend Its particularly noteworthy that the increase rate of residential land prices was doubling in 2016 compared with the previous year

Source China urban land price monitoring data

(RMBm2)()

Change in Land prices in urban areas of China Change in Land price appreciation rates in urban areas of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 24

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 25

Chinarsquos Residential Market

During the 10 years to 2011 there was a period in which the supply speed of commercial housing slowed down due to a tightening or adjustment of policy Needs for housing however expanded and the completed area was raised by a high average growth rate of 117

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down The housing supply volume from 2014 to 2015 has been reduced by 10 We can see that the housing supply is decelerating

As the real estate market regulations were implemented in 2011 the growth rate of the supply quantity of commodity housing which is on an upward trend is slowing down and the deceleration of housing supply in urban areas will be strengthened

(10000 m2)

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The area of commercial residencesrsquo completion in China

CAGR117

CAGR-02

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 26

Chinarsquos Residential Market

In 2015 the number of new commodity houses completed in China is 755 million units which is 293 times as large as the number of newly built houses launched in Japan in 241 units

In 2015 the supply of commodity housing in urban area of China is 750 thousand which is equivalent to the scale of about 29 times of the sale of residential housing in Japan although it is 8 lower than the previous year

(10000 House) (m2 per house )

Source National Bureau of Statistics of China

The number of commercial residence completions and transition of its average completion area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 27

Residential Market in China

Approximately 30 of the housing construction area is concentrated in the four municipalities of Chongqing Tianjin Beijing and Shanghai Construction area decreased more than 60 of cities from the previous year Growth of regional cities such as Lanzhou Nanjing and Guiyang attracts particular attention

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Areas of Completed Residential Properties among Major Cities

National Average Growth Rate10

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 28

Chinas Residential Market

The selling price of commercial residences has risen by 32 times during the last 15 years with this trend being especially evident among luxury properties

(RMBm2)

Note) Since sales prices of the economical housing for low-and-middle income earners in 2011 were not reported in the China Statistical Yearbook 2012 the data here was calculated on the basis of data in 2010 by CAGR at 110

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Selling price of commercial residences in China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 29

Chinas Residential Market

Sale price of residential properties has risen by more than 80 in the last 7 years Shenzhen Shanghai Nanjing and Xiamen each have a price increase of 13 times or more

(RMBm2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Sale Price of Commercial Housing in Major Cities (Comparison between 2008 and 2015)

National Average Growth Rate81

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Selling Prices in 2008 (left scale) Selling Prices in 2015(left scale) Increase in 7 years since 2008(right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 30

Chinas Residential Market

For the past 15 years the annual income ratio of house price in China has changed to about seven times but there was not much change

Shenzhen Shanghai and Beijing are particularly fluctuating Especially in Shenzhen the house price annual income ratio of this 15 years rises nearly five times and it becomes the city which is the most difficult to obtain housing in China

With respect to the annual income ratio of house price Shenzhen is the highest at 28 times followed by Shanghai (21 times) Beijing (18 times) and magnifications tend to expand from the previous year in addition to Guangzhou and Shenyang

Source Statistical material by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the National Bureau of Statistics

(Times)

The housing selling prices to income ratio

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 31

House supply policy of China

Monetary easing policies were implemented after the Lehman shock resulted in skyrocketing housing prices in Beijing Shanghai and other major cities in China As a countermeasure the Chinese government implemented a series of policies that made it more difficult for the acquisition of houses after October 2009

Although house price fluctuations were affected by political tightening and repetition of mitigation and others it was never stopped to raise housing prices especially in large cities while rather acquiring houses became increasingly difficult

Although the policy implemented by the government from 2009 had some effects in reducing housing prices it could never stop the housing price rise and housing acquisition difficulties

Source National Bureau of Statistics China

Monthly sales price of commercial housing compared with that of the same month in the previous year (after 2007)

End of 2008 Economic recovery through reduction of interest rates and exemption of real estate acquisition tax etc

October 2009Implementation of housing price suppression policies Abolishment of tax incentives (real estate transaction tax and personal income tax) Implementation of differentiated housing loan policy

March ~ April 2010Purchase of house was limited in 48 cities Higher down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Restriction of banking loan to developers

January 2011Further increase of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house Trial introduction of property tax for the third house in Shanghai and Chongqing Increase of house supply through provision of affordable houses

September 2014 Decrease of down paymentinterest of loan for the second house by the central bank Policy for limiting house purchases was abolished in most cities Promoted expansion of financing route and supported banks and other financial institutions to issue housing bonds and REITs

Restriction Easing Easing

()

February~March 2016bull In cities without purchase constraints the

reduction of initial payment of housing loan to 20 was possible

bull Possible further reduction in real estate transaction taxes and business tax

April 2016bull Only First Class Cities such as Shanghai

Shenzhen successively issued new policies to constrain purchases

February~March 2015bull The central government and regional governments will issue

relaxation policies such as consumption acceleration of houses at stock in the Second- and Third-class cities tax reduction supply of subsidies to solve regionality and constitutive issuesof the real estate industry

Restriction

March 2017bull The Tier1 and Tier2

cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen have launched regulation policies continuously

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 32

Government Housing Policy in China

Chinas housing market has been spurred as a vicious circle like if policy loosens itll be overheating If policy ties down itll cool downldquo and it has been supported by high demand so the price rise is expected to continue focusing on 70 cities around the future

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

The change of cities number with the housing pricersquos deviation at the link relative ratio in the 70 major cities of China (2011-20179)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 33

Government Housing Policy in China

In July 2017 the government announced the latest policy about the development acceleration of the lease house market targeting at the large and medium-sized cities where lack lease house seriously

The extracts of Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a

net population inflow ( publication with July 26 2017 )

There is a large population to flow into the large and medium-sized cities every year in China The actuality is that the absolutely needed quantity of the leasehold property is insufficient The floating population in 2016 of China reaches 245 million In addition the annual new college graduates are about 7 million people

According to the rental market research report published by Lianjia Research Institute of a large real estate intermediary company focusing on Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou the floating population in Tier1 cities will account for more than 40 of the overall population in the future

In order to solve the new housing problem of the citizens in large and medium cities in July 2017 Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the Notification of accelerated development of housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities with a net population inflow (Hereinafter referred to briefly as ldquonotificationrdquo)

According to the notification in the large and medium cities with a net population inflow therersquore some problems with insufficient total rental housing market disorder imperfect of payment support system and introduced relevant policies to speed up the construction of rental housing and rental housing market cultivation and development

Promote more specialized and large-scale enterprises engaged in leasing residential enterprises

Establish a government property rental housing transaction service platform

Expand the supply of rental housing Renewal of rental housing management and service system

The extracts of the model plan of utilizing a group construction site to build the lease house(publication with August 28 2017)

Chinas Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other developments selected Beijing Shanghai Shenyang Nanjing Hangzhou Hefei Xiamen Zhengzhou Wuhan Guangzhou Foshan Zhaoqing Chengdu and other 13 cities as pilot cities for the development of rental housing policy

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 34

Prospects of Chinas residential market

In 2018 the characteristics of residential market in China are as below The rental housing market in the Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is on the rise and the supply scale of the medium and large housing has expanded

Directions of Chinas residential market in 2018

bull The contradiction between the inflow of new population and the unaffordable housing in large and medium-sized cities has widened

Increase the supply of rental housing in Tier1 and Tier2 cities with significant population inflow

bull The new housing requirements spawned by ldquotwo-child policyrdquo and the maintenance demand to child care-related service

The demand for large and medium sized housing that value child-rearing and related service enrichment is expanding

bull The diversification of residential demand in Tier1 cities and Tier2 cities is coexistent with high housing price

Strong Tier1 and Tier2 cities have boosted the residential market in Tier3 and Tier4 cities

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 35

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 36

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

As a result of the slowdown in consumption growth and the impact of e-commerce the supply of commercial facilities has been gradually decreasing in the years since 2013

(10 thousand m2)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Nationwide Commercial Facilities Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 37

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Investment in commercial facilities has been steadily increasing at an average annual rate of 26 by 2014 but significant investment continued to decelerate after that

(100 mil Yuan)

Source) National Bureau of Statistics of China

Change in Investment Amount and Growth Rate of Commercial Facilities

CAGR230

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 38

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

The average sale price of commercial facilities has recovered slightly in the past two years and has increased in north China and eastern China and has decreased in south China

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in China

The sale areas and sale price of commercial facilities in eachregion(2015 and 2016)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

North China Northeast

China

Eastern

China

South Central

China

Southwest

China

Northwest

China

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (left scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Commercial Facilities in 2015 (right scale)

Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 39

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility

Sales of commercial facilities in Guizhou Chongqing Hainan Henan and Gansu have all doubled in the last five years By contrast sales in the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning Heilongjiang and Jilin) have declined significantly

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Sales Spaces of Commercial Facilities by Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 40

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

Office supply in urban areas in China has experienced a downturn after the Lehman Brothersrsquo failure in 2008 however a growing trend with a low completion rate continues as a whole

(10 thousand m2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Change in Nationwide Office Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 41

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

By 2014 due to the rapid increase in investment in the office market the construction of office buildings also welcomed Immediate peach And in the last three years as investment growth has slowed the office market has regained its stability

(100 mil Yuan)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

Changes in Investment Amount Growth Rate of Office Development

CAGR21

CAGR33

CAGR8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 42

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

More than 40 of office sales are concentrated in eastern China In the last two years the sales volume has increased by more than 30 which is concentrated in east China and north China and the unit price has been increasing again

(RMBm2) (RMBm2)

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Changes in Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices in China Sales SpacesUnit Sales Price of Offices by Area (2014 and 2015)

Note North China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi NeimengguNortheast China Heilongjiang Jilin LiaoningEastern China Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Anhui JiangxiSouth Central China Guangdong Hainan Henan Hubei Hunan GuangxiSouthwest China Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Xizang ChongqingNorthwest China Shanxi GansuQinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

North China Northeast China Eastern China South Central

China

Southwest China Northwest China

Sales Spaces of Office in 2015 (left scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (left scale)

Sales Price of Office in 2015 (right scale) Sales Spaces of Office in 2016 (right scale)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 43

Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office

In the last five years sales of office buildings in Shandong Xinjiang Guizhou and Chongqing have been extremely brisk In contrast Liaoning and Tianjin saw a significant reduction in sales volume

Source China Statistical Yearbook

(10 thousand m2)

Comparison of Office Sales Spaces by Region

14082

-562

88282

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 44Source Public information of Commercial Property Cloud Think Tank

(10 thousand m2) (10 thousand m2)

Chinarsquos commercial real estate market tendency of shopping center

In recent years the opening area of shopping center in eastern China has been in the first place but it has shown a deceleration trend On the other hand central China is more in Tier2 cities and inland cities where the development of shopping centers is booming

In 2016 the number of newly opened large-scale shopping centers in China was 465 which have a total development area of 43193500increasing by 321 compared to 2015

In 2016 the area with the most new openings was east China followed by north China and south China Compared with the slowdown in central China the development of the southwest region has attracted considerable attention

The opening area of the first-class city accounts for about 15 of the total and the new first-class city with remarkable growth accounts for 25 of the total Small scale projects of less than 200000 are mainstream

The area and quantity of new opening shopping centers in 2016 Number of new start-up shopping centers by size in 2016

Note) The shopping center here is counted only for large projects over 30000 Note) First-class cities refer to the four cities of Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou and ShenzhenNewfirst class cities refer to the 15 cities of Chengdu Hangzhou Wuhan Tianjin Nanjing Chongqing Xian Changsha Qingdao Shenyang Dalian Xiamen Suzhou Ningbo and Wuxi

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 45

Prospects of commercial real estate market in China

In 2018 the commercial real estate market in China needs to build a construction facility and operation management system that adapts to the present era and citizens consumption behavior

Directions of Chinas real estate market in 2018

bull Update needs of existing traditional commercial business Differentiation development needs during commercial setting Compounding construction needs in commercial development delayed region

Modification of existing commerce centered on Tier1 and Tier2 cities new construction of Lifestyle-based small-scale specialty commerce and construction of a large complex commercial centering on Tier3 and Tier4 cities

bull Activation of everyday consumer behavior relying on online more and more in theTier1 and Tier2 cities

Establishment of a new commercial business model including the introduction of online-offline business model and examination of operations management system accordingly

bull Lack of a convenient community of nearby commercials that can adapt to todays era and citizens life

Construction of a living-oriented neighborhood commerce tackling many business styles such as childcare and senior services

1

2

3

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 46

China The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Investment

2 Real Estate Investment

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Development and Office Market

5 Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 47

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In 2016 the top 10 companies were the same as last year but the ranking changed The most notable was that Evergrande Real Estate surpassed the industrys largest enterprise Vanke Real Estate to become the No1 in the industry

Rank2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales Company Name TotalSales Company Name Total

Sales1 Vanke Group 1215 Vanke Group 1452 Vanke Group 1776 Vanke Group 2120 Vanke Group 2627 Poly Group 2627

2 Dalian Wanda Group 953 Poly Group 1020 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1625 Shanghai Greenland Group 2080 Evergrande Group 2050 Vanke Group 2050

3 EvergrandeGroup 804 Shanghai

Greenland Group 1013 Poly Group 1251 DalianWanda Group 1501 Shanghai Greenland

Group 2015 Country Garden 2015

4 Shanghai Greenland Group 770 China Overseas

Land 945 China Overseas Land 1103 Evergrande Group 1376 Dalian

Wanda Group 1513 Shanghai Greenland Group 1513

5 Poly Group 732 Dalian Wanda Group 938 Evergrande Group 1073 Poly Group 1362 China Overseas

Land 1492 Poly Group 1492

6 China Overseas Land 708 Evergrande Group 925 Country Garden 1068 Country Garden 1250 Poly Group 1471 China Overseas

Land 1471

7 Country Garden 432 China Greentown 547 Dalian Wanda Group 844 China Overseas

Land 1152 Country Garden 1402 Longfor Group 1402

8 Longfor Group 383 China Resources Land 505 China Resources

Land 688 Shimao Property Holdings 708 China Resources

Land 851 RampF Properties 851

9 China Greentown 353 Country Garden 491 Shimao Property Holdings 683 China Resources

Land 700 Sunac China 731 Country Garden 731

10 China Resources Land 330 Shimao Property

Holdings 461 China Greentown 660 Sunac China 658 China Fortune Land Development 725 Dalian Wanda

Group 725

TotalSales 6680 8297 10771 12907 14877 22022

Total Share within

National Sales

113 129 133 169 170 1872

Average Coverage 405 Cities 531 Cities 672 Cities 737 Cities 751 Cities 875 Cities

Source) Compiled by NRI based on publicly available information and the data of each companyrsquos homepage

Comparison of Developers Top 10 (2011~2016)Unit 100 mil RMB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 48

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

In the recently announced Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017 domestic capital and Hong Kong-Singaporean companies accounted for half of the total SCPG whichrsquos the subsidiary of Vanke Real Estate has replaced Wanda group enter the Top3

Rank Company Name Company Nature Overall Rating Score Representative Commercial Project

1 China Resources Land domestic capital 897 Shenzhen MIXC

2 Hang Lung Properties Hong Kong capital 879 Plaza 66

3 CSPG domestic capital 866 Wuhan INCITY

4 Wanda Commercial Real Estate domestic capital 858 Wanda Plaza

5 Longfor Properties domestic capital 824 Chongqing North Street

6 Capitaland Singapore captial 823 Raffles City Shanghai Plaza

7 SHK Properties Hong Kong capital 817 ICC Shanghai

8 Swire Properties Hong Kong capital 815 Chengdu TaiKoo Hui

9 Joy City Properties domestic capital 809 Shanghai Joy City

10 Wharf Holdings Hong Kong capital 808 Shanghai Time Square

Top 10 Companies in Commercial Real Estate in 2017

Note) November 2017 New perspective media announced TOP 100 enterprises in 2017China Commercial real estate Four indicators are used in the overall evaluation (full mark 100 points) as management (40 points) management (30 points) brand (20 points) and innovation (10 points)

Source made by NRI based on public information

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 49

bull The government will introduce various incentives to expand the rental housing market

The new type of residential leasing enterprises centered on large state-owned enterprises keeps pouring out

bull Real estate developers are actively involved in the construction of a small town (street) in the background of the new city

Work with other companies across industries to develop new real estate products

bull From the previous emphasis on the development of real estate developers a focus on industrial agglomeration and cultivation of operation managers

Real estate developers have diversified into other businesses as well as the rapid growth of industrial property developers who are engaged in the development and operation of industrial parks

1

2

3

Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Future prospects of Chinese Real Estate Developers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 50

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 51

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 52

Macroeconomic trends

The Korean economy is expected to continue growing at a low rate of 3

The trend and forecast of GDP and economic growth rate in Korea

SourceNRI based on IMF (201710)

GDP CAGR in 90s

67

GDP CAGR in 00s

42

Expected GDP CAGR after 2011

30

600

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

500

400

300

200

100

0200

2200

1200

0199

9199

8199

7201

5199

5199

4199

3199

2199

1199

02020(E)

2019(E)

2018(E)

2017(E)

2016(E)

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

1996

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

295296296302283279331290

650546518

392490

743

1131

957921

1035981

229368

071

283293

453

892

-547

592

760685

618

GDP (Real GDP Trillion Won) Economic Growth Rate ()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 53

Macroeconomic trends

Interest rate has declined to 1 since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 Low interest rate is expected to increase the liquidity

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Interest Rate (1998-2016)

475525

4 425375

325375

455

3

225

325275 25

215 125

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10yr Treasury Bond (average)

3yr Cooperate Bond aa- (average)

CD 91 days (average)

Call Rate (overnight average)

Base Rate

(unit )

Consistent downturn in interest ratesince 1998

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 54

Macroeconomic trends

With the implementation of a loose monetary policy for economic revitalization the amount of domestic currency is continuously increasing and market liquidity is expanding

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Trends in average balance of KRW (1998-2016)

rsquo98年以後

持続的な増加傾向

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Lf M2 M1 ハイパワードマネー

Consistently increasing trendsince 1998

(unit Trillion Won)

Note High-powered money = Currency issued + KRW deposited in financial institutions and The Bank of Korea M1 (consultation currency) Currency-in-circulation + demand deposits and savings account balance where deposit or withdrawal can be done any time - mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

M2 (Broad currency) M1 + time depositssavingsreservespayments + market-based financial instruments (CDRPAccommodation bill) + financial instruments offering dividend + bank debentures + others (investment securities and savingspromissory notes issued by financial companies) - long-term financial instruments (2 years)mutual dealings between institutions handling the deposits of financial instruments

(Liquidity of financial institutions) M1 + Savingsreservesbank debentures within M2 with maturity period of 2 years or more + deposits with Korea Securities Finance Corporation + reserves for insurance contracts with life insurance companies (including post offices) + deposits excluding those of agricultural cooperatives or country people - mutual dealings of such financial instruments between institutions covered in Lf

High-powered money

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 55

Macroeconomic trends

Valorization Policy maintains Consumer Price Index at approximately 1

Changes in Consumer Price Index(CPI) Year-on-year Ratio

(unit Year-on-Year )

271

191

250265

210

176203

384

237260

367

207

126 125

070097

328

168

280

356

306

243257

444

182

303

406

165

071084

-022

067

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CPI CPI for living necessities

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea Media Research

Note CPI is calculated on a monthly basis assuming year 2015 as 100 and covering 481 items (weighted average) for research

CPI for living necessities provides a separate summary of 142 products that are designated as daily necessities or those that are purchased frequently out of the total 481 products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 56

Macroeconomic trends

After the Lehman shock the wondollar exchange rate fell However it started to rise after 2014

WonDollar exchange rate trends

907

1411

1013

1145

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

05

01

05

06

05

11

06

04

06

09

07

02

07

07

07

12

08

05

08

10

09

03

09

08

10

01

10

06

10

11

11

04

11

09

12

02

12

07

12

12

13

05

13

10

14

03

14

08

15

01

15

06

15

11

16

04

16

09

17

02

17

07

(unit Won)

It started to increase after 2014

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Note Based on the current price of KRW USD

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 57

12655 11795 33593

18656

81148 105940 98677

Current account

Macroeconomic trendsThe current account surplus is slightly lower (approximately 990 dollars) than the one last year which was recorded the highest This is because of the fall in exports and the deficit in service balance resulted from recession in construction and transportation industry

Current account trends

-70000

-20000

30000

80000

130000

180000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Balance of secondary income

Balance of primary income

Balance of services

Balance of goods

(unit million dollar)

345115

728805 622212

303672

636241

484159

Exports of Goos amp Services

Imports of Goods amp Services

Source NRI based on data from The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 58

Macroeconomic trendsThe rise of the rate of employment and unemployment The rise of the employment rate is attributed to increase in the middle-agedelderly workers However for job seekers in their 20s the work environment is not improving

Employment Rate and Unemployment Rate in Korea Employment Rate by Age

(unit ) (unit ten thousands people) (unit )

Improvement in employment rate

389 378 371 365 361 357 363 369 375

601 584 583 579 576 574 571 568 564

655 652 655 661 662 664 668 667 664

430 450 479 508 535 561 585 599 609

264 269 274 289 311 329 349 366 388

595

586 587591

594 595

602 603 604

50

52

54

56

58

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10s 20s 30s 40s 50s over 60 Employment rate

No of employees over 50s(372 )

590

600

593

598 597 597 598

595

586 587

591

594 595

602603 604

40

33

36 37 3735

32 32

36 37

3432 31

3536 37

00

10

20

30

40

50

57

58

59

60

61

62

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Employment rate Umemployment rate

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (KOSTAT)

Note Employment Rate=(employeepopulation over age 15)x100 Unemployment Rate=(The UnemployedEconomically Active Population)x100

Improvement in both employment

and unemployment rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 59

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 60

Office market trends

The Seoul office market is divided into three categories CBD government agencies and conglomerate headquarters YBD financial district GBD IT district

Sphere wise office market of Seoul

Seoul City hall

bull The largest office district with a long history

bull Developed since the 1960s and has a high level of infrastructure

bull The highest rental rate in Korea bull Conglomerate headquarters foreign

companies in Korea (Seoul) insurancesecurities companies government agency buildings embassies etc

bull Developed since the mid 1980sbull Lower vacancy rate than the other

districts due to low new supplybull Rent rate in between two other

districtsbull ITconglomerates and foreign

companies

CBD(Central Business District)

GBD(Gangnam Business District)

bull Developed since the late 1980sbull Rent is lower than CBD and GBDbull Headquarters of financial

institutions such as banks and securities

YBD(Yeouido Business District)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 61

Office market trends

Regarding the domestic office market the supply of new offices increased mainly in CBD and YBD after 2010 After 2014 the supply of new offices mainly increased in GBD

Trends in new supply of offices in Seoul

CBD Central(1970 to 1986)

GBD Central(1987 to 2009)

(unit 万)

CBD(2010

to 2011)

YBD(2012 to

2013)

GBD(2014

onwards)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

70 72 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 62

Office market trends

The vacancy rate of new prime offices in Seoul was 8 and the rental rate reduced to 87K KRW33m2Month

Vacancy rate of prime offices in Seoul Rental rate of prime offices in Seoul

(unit KRW33Month)

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total CBD GBD YBD

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 63

Office market trends

The number of major office transactions in Seoul was 72 and it is rapidly increasing with the total sale price

Number of Seoul office sales and total sale prices

(unit Trillion KRW)(Unit sale)

Note Offices with total floor area of 3300m2 or more only are covered

25

35

57

4241

52 26

39 38

53

48

57 58 59

51

46

72

17 19 26

22

28 26

12

41 42 48 46

55 56 60

70

36

88

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Total Sale Price

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 64

Office market trends

The office sale price was about 48 Millionm2 and the cap rate was 53

Sales volume and pricem2 by office district in Seoul

2488 2818

3658 4034

3513 3760

4103 4284 4297

4632 4787 4829

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CBD GBD YBD Other (Seoul) BBD Averaged Sale Pricem2

(Unit Ten thousands ) (Unit Thousand KRW)

79

73

67

62 6366

68

60

54

59

48

53

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 65

Office market trends

In 2015 the averaged volume of office sales was 19000m2 and the averaged sale price per 33m2 was about 16M KRW

Sale price per volume by office district in Seoul (2016 property transaction)

Source NRI based on Analyst Report

Note This analysis covers 43 offices with transactions concluded mainly in CBD GBD and YBD in 2016Transactions for the completion of construction in 2016 IFC individual transactions etc 7 cases are excluded

(Price ten thousands KRW33m2) (unit ten thousands KRW33m2)

Volume(m2)

CBD GBD YBD

1500

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1000

500

9000060000300002000010000 250000 1500050000

35000

National Health Insurance Corporation

Teheran building

Capital TowerCosmos building

Daewoo Shipbuilding amp Marine Engineering Building

Center point opticalization

Samsung Lifes Head Office

International building

Jong-Ro Tower

Average transaction cost1791(10K KRW 33)

Average transaction area19474 ()

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

00

1955 Million KRW

2005 Million KRW

1328 Million KRW

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 66

Office market trends

The office market Cap rate in 2015 was about 5 and Spread of government bonds was 4

Trends of Seoul office cap rate and T-bill

Source NRI based on Media Research

41 42 32

48 34

25 21 09 04

15 22 18 27 23 27 26 31

7869 66

51 47 50

52 54 56 52 48 42

35 33 32 23 22

119 111

98 98

8275 73

62 6067 70

60 6156 59

49 53

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

스프레드 국고채 10년 Cap rate(unit )

ldquoPositioning investee companies as steady and profitable with the 3 level Spreadrdquo

Real estate market activities

Temporary market stagnation due to

financial crises

Alternate investments becoming active due to low-interest rate policy

Spread T-bill (10yr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 67

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 68

Residential market trendsThe domestic household debts have increased to 1300 Trillion KRW Among these home equity loan accounts for 40 Also the default risk is rising because of decline in real estate prices and increase in interest rates

Trends in scale of household finance

665724

776843

916 9641021

10891203

1344

293 311 338 363 392 404 418 461 491546

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

가계대출 주택대출(単位 兆ウォン)

440

430436

430 428

419409

423408 406

주택담보대출비중Unit Trillion KRW Weight of home equity loan

Household finance Housing loan

Source NRI Analysis National Statistical Office (NSO)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 69

Residential market trends

The land price index and the land transaction volume are gradually rising

Land Transaction Volume and Land Price Index1)

224 229 223207

233

204224

264

309 300

28 26 23 17 19 16 20 26 36 37

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

National

Seoul

890 887 895 905 915 924 935 953

976 1002

Land price index1)

Land transactionvolume

(unit No of lots)CAGR193

CAGR66

(Lot unit 10 thousand number of case )

Note 1) Based on Land Price Index 2016121 = 100

Source NRI based on data from Real Estate Official Statistics Network (httpwwwr-onecokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 70

Residential market trendsThe housing transaction volume was showing recovery after 2012 however with the increase in uncertainties such as the credit examination strengthening and the interest rate increase in USA it has slightly decreased

Transition of National Housing Transaction Volume

(unit no of transaction)Transaction volume of metropolitan areaaccounts for about 54 of that of nationwide

384777

385400 443923475075

517361

608424

463459

488757

543062

581909

484807

2015

1193691

611782

2014

1005173

462111

2013

851850

363093

2012

735414

271955

2011

981238

372814

2010

799864

282503

2009

870353

395278

2008

893790

449867

2007

867933

482533

2006

1082453

697676

2016

1053069

568262

Capital areaRural area

212978221683

148266111889

83257114315

88737138016147023159396

263599

Seoul

Source NRI based on data from Onnara Real Estate (httpwwwonnaragokr)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 71

Residential market trends

The supply of housing units increases since 2013 especially in apartments In 2016 about one million units are newly supplied

Housing supply by types of housing

544909

644512

459887 468642 504481

804019 854095

658025

727354

1085838 1055149

412891 476462

263153 297183 276989

356762 376086

278739

347687

534931 506816

106251

152042 186637

163357

219823

349661 340477

277594 274869

350463 341915

25767 16008 10097 8102 7669 13596 13532 32692 41170

105112

128450

84000 124000

69000 63628 95332

77968

-

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total Apartment Multi-unit dwelling Officetel Urban-type housing(unit no of housing supply) (unit no of house)

Source NRI based on statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation

Official statistics of Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation do not include some officetels and urban-type residences hence the gross households supplied would be different from what is mentioned in this report

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 72

Residential market trends

The average Housing Price Index has been increasing since 2013 especially in Seoul and the metropolitan area

Housing Price Index (10 years) Housing Price Index (3 years)

(unit index) (unit index)

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

Note Standard of National Housing Price Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source National Statistical Office

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 73

Residential market trends

The Jeonse (House Lease) price index has consistently illustrated an upward trend in these ten years However recently the growth rate has slowed down

Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (10 years) Jeonse Index of Nationwidecapital Area (3 years)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

940

945

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

1055

1060

164Q

163Q

162Q

161Q

154Q

153Q

152Q

151Q

144Q

143Q

142Q

141Q

Capital AreaNational Rural AreaSeoul Rural AreaCapital AreaNational Seoul

(unit index) (unit index)

Note Based on National House Lease Index June 2015 = 100 Every year June data was taken as standard

Source NRI based on Korea Appraisal Board

Jeonse refers to the way houses are leased Instead of paying monthly rent a renter will makea lump-sum deposit on a rental space at anywhere from 50 to 80 of the market value

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 74

Residential market trends

The Jeonse cost is about 68 of the Housing price The standard in the capital area being 70 it is mainly increasing in Seoul and capital area

National Jeonse Cost to Housing Price

556 563 566 572 577 586 593 584 593 606 616 622 626 631 638 646 653 661 672 678 680 680

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11

3Q

11

4Q

12

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

13

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

14

1Q

14

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

15

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

16

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

National Capital Area Seoul Rural Area

(単位 )

CAGR

National

Capital Area

Seoul

Rural Area

10

16

16

05

Source NRI data from based on The Bank of Korea

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 75

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 76

Commercial facilities market trends

The retail market scale has reached approximately 300 trillion KRW including the both online and offline especially the online business that has shown a remarkable increase

OnlineOffline Retail Market Scale (2006-2016)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores) Online market = Computer shopping mobile shopping (excluding TV home shopping and catalogue shopping)

The total sales of large marts calculated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) excludes the sales of duty free shops and includes those of complex malls and Auretto Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Korea Online Shopping Association

309

243(79)

66(21)

2015

2016

287

233(81)

54(19)

2014

273

227(83)

45(17)

2013

265

226(85)

40(15)

2012

260

225(86)

36(14)

2011

249

217(87)

32(13)

2010

224

201(90)

23(10)

2009

208

188(90)

21(10)

2008

198

179(91)

18(9)

2007

188

172(92)

16(8)

(Unit Trillion KRW ) オフラインオンライン

CAGR (2007 to 2011)

73

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

44 CAGR(2007 to 2011)

60 20

191 164

Online Offline

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 77

Commercial facilities market trends

Among the offline stores CVS has been leading in growth while the other businesses stay on slow growth

Offline Retail Market Scale (2011-2016 business type wise)

Offline market = Department stores large marts supermarkets convenience stores specialty retail stores (excluding passenger vehicles and fuel retail stores)

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO)

233

102(44)

49(21)

29(12)

29(13)

7(3)

17(7)

2014

227

102(45)

47(21)

29(13)

29(13)

7(3)

13(6)

2013

226

103(46)

46(20)

30(13)

28(13)

7(3)

2012

12(5)

225

45(20)

2016

243

103(42)

53(22)

30(12)

30(12)

106(47)

7(3)

20(8)

2015

29(13)

28(12)

7(3)

11(5)

Department stores Speciality retail stores

HypermarketSM (excluding SSM)SSM (Corporate supermarkets)

Convenience stores

CAGR

01

82 239

13

(2012 to 2014)(2014 to 2016)

29 56

38 28

24 26

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

49

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

32

(Unit Trillion KRW )

-17 03

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 78

Commercial facilities market trends

Regarding SM market the growth rate remains in 2 range and SSM rate stays 20 range

SM market scale (2012-2016)

SSM = Lotte Super GS Retail Home Plus Everyday Retail Seowon Distribution Fishery Cooperatives and Logistics and CS Logistics standards

Source NRI based on data from National Statistical Office (NSO) and Distributors Yearbook

(unit Trillion KRW )

304(80)

74(20)

2015

368

283(81)

68(19)

2012

295(80)

73(20)

2014

359

289(80)

70(20)

2013

351

2016

378

275(81)

340

65(19)

25

33

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

27

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

26

SMSSM

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 79

Commercial facilities market trends

The Online market is rapidly growing more than 10 every year and purchase channel is shifting from computer to mobile

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 procurement channel wise)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association

(Unit Trillion KRW )

2016

657

2013

397

244(45)

295(55)

317(70)

135(30)

452

2014

356(54)

301(46)

2015

539

59(15)

338(85)

2012

366

26(7)

340(93) 919

-30

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

MobilePC

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 80

Commercial facilities market trends

In looking at the business types the growth of online stores is led by the expansion of open market and social commerce

Online retail market scale (2012-2016 by business type)

Source NRI based on data from Korea Online Shopping Association and Justice Committee Meeting

(Unit Trillion KRW )

254(56)

300(56)

328(50)215

(60)233

(59)

2016

657

98(15)

230(35)

2012

358

19(5)

124(35)

2015

539

80(15)

159(29)

2014

452

55(12)

143(32)

2013

397

34(9)

130(33)

505

167

CAGR (2012 to 2016)

CAGR (2012 to 2014)

191

CAGR (2014 to 2016)

164

OthersSocial commerceOpen market

112

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 81

Korea Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

1 Macroeconomic Environment

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Commercial Facilities Market

5 Real Estate Investment Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 82

Investment market trends

REITs market has expanded to 25 Trillion KRW In recent years REITs are mostly by Private Offers

Trends in scale of domestic REITs market

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

공모 사모

4 8 10 12 14 18 20 36

50 69 71

80 98

125

169

리츠수

(AUM Standards Unit Trillion KRW individuals)

06 10 14 17 33 50 4970

7682 95

117149

180

245

Funds REITsPublicOffer

PrivateOffer

Source NRI Analysis KORAMCO Korea Financial Investment Association

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 83

Investment market trends

The market has been gradually changing for the past 10 years shifting the focus from CR-REITs to externally-managed REITs

Trends in composition ratio of domestic REITs

(総資産基準 )

1000 1000 1000

637541 707

650

694 644 630527 404 367

309

208

363459

293340 300 346 337

427563 605 667

780

10 07 10 33 45 33 28 24 12

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠 위탁관리리츠 자기관리리츠Corporate

Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

Source NRI Analysis REITs Information System

(Level of total assets )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 84

Investment market trends

With the reduction of composition ratio of CR-REITs the composition ratio of listed REITs is also reduced to 14

Trends in proportion of domestic and listed REITs

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

구조조정리츠

위탁관리리츠

자기관리리츠

778

1000937

783

588

367 329

174104 127 122 122 89 59

14

系列1(Level of total assets )

Proportion of listed REITsCorporate Restructuring REITs

Externally-managed REITs

Self-managed REITs

The real estate prices were calculated keeping the index as on December 2015 as 100 and beneficiary rate was calculated based on the Housing Price Index

Source NRI Analysis Factset Bloomberg Kookmin Bank Korea Investment amp Securities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 85

Investment market trends

In looking at the each sectors the diversification of REITs assets is growing including domains such as retail logistics and hotel

44

31 3223

1622

29

46

100

50

7571

100

2861

45

3150 40

38

25

50

2529

17

8

9

8

1819

1713

6

8

56

10 99

8

7 9

5 55 5

22

4 4 1 2

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

기타

호텔

물류 공장

리테일

오피스

주택

(unit )

Others

Hotel

LogisticsFactory

Retail

Office

House

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (numbers of REITs)

Source NRI based on Korea Financial Investment Association Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport Korea Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts KORAMCO

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 86

Investment market trends

In looking at AUM basis the majority of REITsrsquo assets are still by the offices and housing

Annual Investment Portfolio of REITs (AUM-based)

(AUM 基準 )

05 08 12 13 23 37 36 44 49 5671 81 89 89

112

1013 12

19 1718

1723

27 29

35

00

07 09 0604

05

2449

83

0103

08

09

13

15

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

오피스 리테일 주택 기타オフィス リテール 住宅 その他

Source NRI Analysis Korea Financial Investment Association KAREIT

AUM standards Office Retail Housing Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 87

Investment market trends

The margin ratio of REITs is 6 range having less fluctuations than the other financial instruments

REITs dividend yield ratio

(単位 )

85 66 84122 119

404

280 261

86 83 71 92 62 81 66

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

국고채 10년 기준금리 리츠수익률 코스피수익률(YoY)

Source NRI Analysis

T-Bill (10yr) Base rate REITs margin ratio

KOSPIMargin ratio

(YoY)Unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 88

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 89

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 90

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The area of the dominated territory of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is equals to that of Kyushu and with 23 million

90

Country name Republic of China (Founded Oct 10 1912)(The relocation of the Chinese Nationalist Party to Taiwan was in 1949)

Era name Minguo (2017 AD= Minguo 106)

Capital Taipei City (Population 269 million)

Major cities Shinipei City (Population 398 million) Taoyuang City (217 million) Taichung City (278 million) Tainan City (189 million) Kaohsiung City (278 million)

Area Approx 36197 km2 (2016 A bit little smaller than Kyushu Japan)

Population Approx 2355million (as of Jul 2017)

Ethnic Composition Han Race 98 Aboriginal 2

Currency New Taiwan dollar (NTD) 1 NTD=Approx 366 yen (As of Jul 2017)

Nominal GDP USD 5299 billion (2016)

Nominal GDP per capita USD 22540 (2016)

No of Japanese residents 21887 (as of Oct 2016)

Number of Japanese companies Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Taipei member firms 466 (Mar 2017)

Number of travelers between Japan

From Japan to Taiwan from Japan 190 million (2016)From Taiwan to Japan from Taiwan 430million (2016)

Overview of Taiwan

Matsu Kinmen Region

Penghu Islands

CapitalTaipei

TaichungCity

Kaohsiung City

Tainan City

ShinpeiCity

TaoyuangCity

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 91

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population of childbearing age has reached the apex The total population is predicted to decrease after 2020 and thus the issue of population decline has emerged

Population has been expected to reach the peak in around 2025 and after that population in Taiwan may decease gradually

Population in Taiwan by age-group

Popu

latio

n (th

ousa

nd))

Source NRI based on the CEPD Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

5739 5716 5525 5076 4703 4259 3624 3188 3062 3038 2851

11361 12621 13607 14650 15652 16295 17050 17366 16847 15998 15161

766 977

1269 1631

1921 2217 2488 2939 3788 4698 5574

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-64 Ages 65 or overlarrActual Forecastrarr

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 92

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The population density in Taiwan is approximately twice as that in Japan

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in population distribution

Land area

36197

377972

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2016)

(kmsup2)

Total population

24

127

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

Population density

651

335

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Taiwan(2017)

Japan(2017)

x 19

(百万人) (人 kmsup2)

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 93

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

GDP per capita of Taiwan is about 67 of that of Japan and income level is 83

Comparison of Taiwan and Japan in the scale of economy

Exchange rate (Date Dec 2015)1USD = 11605 YEN1USD = 32171 NTD

GDP

5299

49386

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(億ドル)

GDP Per capita

22540

38917

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

Household income

38960

47031

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Taiwan(2016)

Japan(2016)

(ドル) (ドル)

X 083

X 058

Source NRI based on the Ministry of Interior of ROC and the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare of Japan

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 94

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Taiwanrsquos economy showed negative growth during IT bubble of 2001 and the financial crisis after Lehman Shock of 2009 but it quickly returned to stable growth trend

Since 2010 European debt crisis has worsened the global economy In the meanwhile US Domestic manufacturing has growth and the Chinas ldquoRed Supply Chainrdquo has risen Accordingly Taiwanrsquos export decreased which causes decline in GDP growth rate

Taiwanrsquos GDP growth rate slightly declined at the level of around 15 while is expected to increase 122

GDP growth rate in Taiwan

-165

526

367

619

470 562

652

070

-157

1063

380

206 22

402

072148

211 227

-5

0

5

10

15

()

(y)

Forecast

Source NRI based on the DGBAS Executive Yuan ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 95

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

The cross-strait relationship has improved greatly since 2008 While after 2016 the interaction between these two countries may reduce

History of Cross-strait relationshipMay 2008 Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party becomes the 12th President of Taiwan

Jul Chinese tourists to Taiwan was deregulated (Group tour)Dec The Three Links (Liberalization in commerce transportation and postal service) is implementedDec Cross-Strait Conference on the Cooperation and Exchange of the Chinese Medicine Industry which is the project representing the cross-

strait industrial bridge was held in Taipei

Apr 2009 The third summit meeting of cross-strait contact points was held A memorandum on cross-strait financial cooperation (concerning banks securities and insurances) was signed and chartered flights were decided to be increased and become scheduled

Jul Chinese investment into Taiwan was deregulated (63 kinds in manufacturing 24 in service and 11 in public works was released to be invested by Chinese)

Nov Cross-Strait financial MOU was signed (Put into effect in January 2010)

Jun 2010 The Fifth ChenndashChiang summit was held Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was signed and 267 Chinarsquos products and 539 Taiwanrsquos products are listed in the tariff concessions

Jan 2011 Started waiving import tariffs (so-called Early Harvest list)

Nov Both sides agreed on industry cooperation in following segments (LED Municipal Wireless Cold Chain Logistics TFT-LCD EV)

Aug 2012 The customs authorities of Taiwan and China signed a Cross-Strait Customs Cooperation Agreement regarding customs service smuggling crackdown and tariff reduction

Aug Both sides reached a consensus to promote a mechanism of transparency information loosing investment limitations to promote prosperity

Jun 2013 The Cross-Strait Agreement in Trade in Services based on WTO framework is signed It proposes opening up over 100 services sectors in phases

Mar 2014 Taiwans ruling Kuomintang party attempted a unilateral move in the Legislative Yuan to force the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement to the legislative floor without giving it a clause-by-clause review Such an action occurred An Anti-Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement demonstration on the next day

April Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng visited the occupied parliament chamber and promised to postpone review of the trade pact until legislation monitoring all cross-strait agreements has been passed

May 2016 Since 20th May 2016 Ing-wen Tsai has begun her presidency and claimed that the relationship between Taiwan and China in the next four years will remain steady

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 96

1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan

Although the current Taiwan-China relation is not as warm as before the number of flight between these countries is higher than between Hong Kong and China

No of Destinations in China 2017 No of flights to China 2017

1178

1312

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

HK

Taiwan

47

71

46

55

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

HK

Taiwan

No of destinations between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

No of flights between Taiwan and China have already outnumbered Hong Kongrsquos

Unit FlightsweekUnit Destinations

Source NRI based on the Civil Aeronautics Administration of the MOTC ROC(Taiwan) and Airport Authority Hong Kong

The estimation is based on the public release the of Civil Aviation Administration of China

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 97

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 98

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

Following 8 areas compose major office districts in Taipei City

Major office areas in Taipei City

Hsin YiWorld Trade Centerbull Redeveloped under the Hsin Yi Development Plan Area with the

highest office rent level in Taipeibull Highly convenient due to the large concentration of administrative

financial trade exhibitory leisure and residential functionsbull Offices of global companies such as IBM and Microsoft located

Neihu Science Park districtbull The area Government aims to develop as a

science park districtbull Holding a large concentration of IT industry

headquartersbull Its traffic convenience has improved due to the

extension of MRT

Dun Hua NMinshengbull Having the second largest concentration of

luxury offices (Hsin Yi area is the largest) and being home to many financial service industries

bull Traffic convenience significantly improved after the SongShan airport became an international airport

Dunnanbull Holding a large number of well-known companies and foreign firmsbull Holding many financial companies as well as many traditional

industriesbull With its traffic convenience having developed to be a complex of

residential and commercial area

Songjiang Nanjingbull Area with the highest office density in Taipeibull Holding a large number of offices of Japanese

firms as well as traditional industries financial services and travel industries

Taipei station areabull Area centering Taipei station where the lines of

Taiwan Railways MRT and the High Speed Rail intersect

bull The first area in Taipei City where offices were developed with a large concentration of financial insurance industries and government institutions

Taipei station

area

Hsin YiWorld Trade

Center

Zhong Shan Northbull A large concentration of offices commercial

facilities and hotelsbull Many offices of Japanese firms are also

located

Taipei SongShanAirport

Nanjing Fuxingbull A class offices are concentrated in this area

providing comprehensive commercial financial services

bull The opening of MRT Songshan-Xindian Line in 2014 has made making journeys even more convenient

Zhon

gSh

an N

orth

Song

jiang

Nan

jing

Dun

Hua

M

ings

heng

Dun

nan

NeihuScience

Park district

Fusi

ng N

anjin

g

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 99

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

A number of great office buildings were completed in 2014 in Zhong Shan and Nan Gang district and thus more than 40000 tsubo of office spaces were provided In the meanwhile the office demand in Taipei grow Consequently there is a downward trend in the vacancy rate of office buildings which was below 7 in Q4 2016

By the end of 2017 lsquoTaipei Nan Shan Plazarsquo around Taipei 101World Trade Center Station and the headquarter of Taiwan Cooperative Bank around Nanjing Fuxing Station will be completed and thus 70000 tsubo of new office spaces will be available As a result the vacancy rate of office buildings may remain high

Office vacancy rate rose to more than 9 in 2015

Supply of new offices and vacancy rates in Taipei City

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16New supply (left axis) Vacancy Rate (right axis)Completion of Taipei 101

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Completion of FargloryFinancial Center

The headquarter buildings of Taiwan Cooperative Bank and China Trust were completed

Area

of n

ew s

uppl

y (P

ing)

Vaca

ncy

rate

()

Source NRI based on the Taiwan real estate yearbookNote The bar chart indicates the total area of annual new supply

New office buildings under

construction

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 100

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The average A-class office rental prices of CBD in Taipei is NTD2385 per tsuboper month (around yen8603 per tsubo per month)

Overview of major office areas (Q2 2017)

District Supply floor space (Tsubo)

A-class office Vacancy rate

()

B-class office Vacancy rate

()

A-class office avg rent

(NTDTsubomonth)

B-class office avg rent

(NTD Tsubo month)

Taipei station district 60310 55 15 2200 1706

Chung Shan North district 32932 -- 47 -- 1747

Songjiang Nanjing district 260955 182 84 1995 1762

Minsheng Dun Hua N district 262776 90 55 2277 1755

Dun HuaJen-Ai district 175763 70 42 2450 1787

Xinyi district 311328 102 31 3001 1721

Average rent 2385 NTDTsubomonth

Source NRI based on CBRE data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 101

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The number of office construction license issuance decreased significantly in the first half year of 2016 Accordingly the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

The number of construction license issuance has reduced since 2014 and thus the supply of offices may reduce in the following year

Source NRI based on statistics by the CPAMI ROC(Taiwan)

Number of office construction license issuance and total floor space licensed for construction in Taipei City

444080

926739

544258

207831

314769

461971 438809 416413 394913

1123336

556589

364330

273704

542545

408558 416577

116354 -

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Floor area squares (right asix)

License amount(left axis)

Jan-Jul

No

of c

onst

ruct

ion

licen

se is

sued

Tota

l hou

ses

spac

e of

con

stru

ctio

n lic

ense

issu

ed (m

2 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 102

2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)

The existing offices in Taipei metropolitan are mainly located in central Taipei The outer metropolitan region such as Zin-Ban Fuchung Area and Nankang Area have been regenerated in the

recent years Accordingly the number of new office buildings has increased in these areas

Three new CBDs around central Taipei have been developed recently and thus the supply of commercial buildings is predicted to increase

TaipeiMain Sta

XimenArea

DunpeiAreaNanjing E

Rd Area

XinyiArea

NankangArea

Zin-BanFuchung

AreaFar EsternMemorialHospital

Area

Taipei City

DunnanArea

Existing Office Area

New Office Area

Zin-Ban Fuchung Areabull Rent 1300NTDTsubobull Zin-Ban Special Zone is located around

Banqiao station which is a terminal station of TRA MRT Taiwan-HSR

bull The highest office in Shinipei City ldquoFar Eastern Buildingrdquo(50F) has been opened in Jul 2013

MRT Far Estern Memorial Hospital Areabull Rent1200 NTDTsubobull New area of office with almost bran-

new officebull The most famous office of this area

is T-park built by FEG Group

Nankang Areabull Rent1200 -1300 NTDTsubobull This Area is expected as a new CBD of

Taipei because of being a terminal station of TSHR and 2 lines of MRT

bull Numerous offices have been and will be constructed in this area

Shinpei City

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 103

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 104

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

Since Taoyuan has been designated as a special municipality the population of it growth dramatically The Taipei Metropolis is reshaped where 40 of total population live in it

The location and population (2015) of Taipei City Keelung City and Shinpei City

Taipei CityPopulation 269 million

Keelung City Prpulation 037 million

Shinpei City Population 397 million

Taoyuang City Population 217 million

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 105

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a significant population growth in West Taipei Metropolitan area especially in West Shinipei City

Population Changes in Taipei City and Shinipei City over the last 5 years (2011-2015)

Shinpei City

TaoyuanCity

Keelung City

Greater Taipei Area

Taipei CityNew-Town regionDanshui

Linkou

Sanxia

MRT development

region

LegendAvg annual growth rate

-2 le CAGR lt -1-1 le CAGR lt 00 le CAGR lt 11 le CAGR lt 22 le CAGR lt 3

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 106

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The population of East and West Shinipei City and the central Taoyuan City has increased greatly which lead to soaring property prices in these areas

CAGR of the Land Price of Residential District in Taipei Metropolitan over the last 5 years (2013~2017)

Legend

0 le CAGR lt 2

2 le CAGR lt 4

4 le CAGR lt 6

6 le CAGR lt 8

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 107

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The construction of MRT is one of the causes of the accelerating urban sprawl

MRT construction status around Taipei Metropolitan Area

【Distance from Taipei City 10km】

【Distance from Taipei City 5km】Wugu

Taishan

Xinzhuang

Luzhou

Banqiao

Zhonghe

Xindian

Muzha

Nangang

Neihu

Xizhi

Danshui

Beitou

Dazhi

Sanchong

Danshui

Xin-beitou

Luzhou

New Taipei Industrial Park

YongningDingpu

Fu Jen UnivHuilong

Sanchong

Nanshijiao

Jingan

GutingCKS Memorial Hall

Zimen

MinquanW Rd

Taipei Main

Station

Taipei Zoo

Songshan

Taipei NangangExhibition Center

SongshanAirport

Dapinglin

Xiaobitan

Xindian

To TaoyuanAirport

Banqiao

Elephant Mt

ZhongxiaoXinsheng

Shulin

Line Section Year opened

Neihu-Muzha Line

Zhongshan Junior High School hArr Taipei Zoo Mar 1996

Zhongshan Junior High School hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Jul 2009

Danshui Line Danshui hArr Taipei Main Station Mar 1997

Zhonghe Line Guting hArr Nanshijiao Dec 1998

Xindian Lian Taipei Main Station hArr Xindian Nov 1999

Nangang-Banqiao Line

Longshan Temple hArr Taipei City Hall Aug 1999

Longshan Temple hArr Xinpu Aug 2000

Taipei City Hall hArr Kunyang Dec 2000

Xinpu hArr Yongning May 2006

Kunyang hArr Nangang Dec 2008

Yongning hArr Dingpu Dec 2014

Nangang hArrTaipei Nangang Exhibition Center Feb 2011

Luzhou Line Luzhou hArr Zhongxiao Xinsheng Nov 2010

XinzhuangLine

Fu Jen Univ hArr Daqiaotou Jan 2012

Zhongxiao Xinsheng hArr Guting Sep 2012

Huilong hArr Fu Jen Univ Mar 2013

Xinyi Line CKS Memorial HallhArr Elephant Mt Dec 2013

Songshan Line Songshan hArr Ximen Nov 2014

TaoyuanAirport MRT Taipei Main Station hArr Jhongli Mar 2017

Circular Line New Taipei Industrial Park hArr Dapinglin Jun 2018

Wanta Line CKS memorial hall hArr Huilong Dec 2020

Source)NRI based on the MRT Construction Dep Of Taipei City Gov

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 108

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The price of new properties in the centre of Taipei is over 1 million per tsubo And luxury real estate price in Xinyi District even reaches 3 million per tsubo

47-58

24-36

40-56

75-105

60-83

42-65

34-4838-52

43-52

90-13064-8230-40

40-6075-105

74-95

75-106

125-290

34-45

26-40

45-62

48-63

72-107

85-150120-166

113-145

48-75

87-130

45-60

125-285

88-140

72-125

85-140

46-5660-80

88-12550-65

42-63

55-78

Unit housing prices at major areas near MRT station in Taipei City and Shinipei City (Unit10000 NTD Tsubo)

Source NRI based on My Housingcom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 109

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The property price had increased steady since 2003 and reached the apex in 2013 And after that the housing price drops

Transition of housing price index

Source NRI based on Cathay Real Estatersquos Housing Index quarterly report

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Taipei City

Shinpei City

Taoyuang amp Hsinchu Region

Hou

sing

pric

e in

dex Financial Crisis

2011 Practice of Specifically Selected Goods and Services Tax Act2012 Practice of Registering the Actual Transaction Price of Real Estate2016 Practice of Consolidated Housing and Land Taxes

Note2010=100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prices of 2017 Q2Taipei City 8199 thsdTsuboShinpei City 3459 thsd TsuboTaoyuang City 2137 thsd Tsubo

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 110

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

There is a downward trend in the number of issued housing construction license of Taipei Shinipei and Taoyuan City and thus the growth rate of new buildings are expected lower than before

While several mega infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the MRT system will be delivered in Shinipei and TaoyuanCity soon and besides Urban Regeneration Act will be modified to make the regeneration process more efficient Therefore housing supply is expected to grow in the long-term

There has been a downward trend in the number of construction license issuance recently in major cities of North Taiwan

The Number of housing construction license issuance

Source NRI based on statistics by the Ministry of Interior ROC(Taiwan)

Taipei City Shinpei City Taoyuang City

(No) (No)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Case No

Householde No

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 Case No

Householde No

(No) (No)

NoteThe statistic number of year 2017 only involve that from Jan to Jul

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 111

3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)

The level of the average rental price is extremely low in Taipei City and Shinipei City and cap rates of residential buildings in these two cities ranges between 2 and 35

Cap rates of properties in Taipei City and Shinpei City

Location

Taipei City Shinpei City

Zhongshan Dist(Near MRT Shuanglian Sta)

Neihu Dist(Near MRT Songshan Sta)

Xinyi Dist(Near MRT Taipei 101 World

Trade Center Sta)

Banqiao Dist(Near MRT Baqiao Sta)

Layout 2LDK 2LDK 2LK 2LDK

Area(tsubo) 21 28 25 26

Age(year) 17 11 3 8

Rent(NTDYear) 29 thousand 32 thousand 87 thousand 41 thousand

Price(NTD) 1237 million 1509 million 2580 million 1672 million

Cap rate () 234 212 195 245

Source NRI based on interviews with owners material by 591com etc

Residential building indicate the properties that above 11 floor and have the elevator

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 112

Taiwan Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residence Market

4 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 113

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

International tourists visiting the Taiwan are composed of 50 Japanese and Chinese Recently the government has planned to attract more tourists from southeast Asia which is regarded as the third

biggest market after Japan and China

The tourist reduces caused by the relationship between two counties to be at a standstill While Taiwan Government is planning to attract tourists from Southeast Asia

The number of foreign tourists to Taiwan (By place of residence)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mainland

Japan

Hong Kong

Southeast Asia

Others Deregulation of group toursof mainland Chinese

Deregulation of individual toursof mainland Chinese

Japan190 million

5058

South-East Asia165 million

28312978

2248

29503378 3520

37163845

4395

5567

6087

7056

8016

9910

2624

10439

10690

Mainland351 million

Hong Kong161 million

Fore

ign

tour

ists

am

ount

(tho

usan

d pe

rson

)

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 114

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of hotel rooms has been increased since 2010 and the number of that reaches 11 thousand and the occupancy rate of accommodation remain high which exceeds 70

The number of guest rooms and occupancy rates of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Note Tourist hotels are hotels that meet the criteria set by the Tourism Bureau of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications and are broken down into international tourist hotels and general tourist hotels according to their levels There are 27 international tourist hotels and 17 standard tourist hotels in Taipei at the end of December 2016

9202 8879 8324 8013 7786 7738 7898 8323 8313 8313 8403 8834 8834

1306 12631263 1263 1383 1357

19742040 2040 2275 2330

2386 2386

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

InternationalTourist Hotels

StandardTourist Hotels

+85+50 -01 +23 +14

0

No

of g

uest

room

7202 7668 7694 7239 6931 7382 7566 7933 7869 8043 7867Std Tourist Hotels

OccupancyRate

6930 7495 7532 7216 7114 7564 7540 7772 7590 7742 7495Intrsquol Tourist Hotels

7722

7696

7689

7111

+45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 115

4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)

The number of tourists visiting Taipei increases and the hotel prices rise accordingly

The average price of guest rooms of tourist hotels in Taipei City

Aver

age

pric

e of

gue

st ro

oms

(NTD

per

nig

ht)

34113565

38014015 4050

37073848

41074394

4713 4831 4811 4761

1848 1893 1986 2013 2039 21502370

26722931

3133

34723671 3703

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

International tourist hotelStandard tourist hotel

Source NRI based on statistics by the Tourism Bureau of the MOTCROC(Taiwan)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 116

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 117

(Reference)

Regional Map of Singapore

Core Central Region and Rest of Central Region

NORTH WEST

SOUTHWEST CENTRAL

SINGAPORE

NORTH EAST SOUTH

EAST

Woodlands North Business Park

International Business Park(Jurong Area)

Jurong Island

Changi Business ParkChangi Air HubBedok

Tampines

OrchardSomerse

The MainCommercial AreaIndustrial Park

BugisJurong EastJurong West

DowntownMarina Bay

Core Central Region is postal districts 9 10 11Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa(BlueYellow and Pink)Rest of Central Region is the area within red line except Core Central RegionOutside Central Region is outside the red line of the area

SourceURA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 118

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 119

Population Trend

Population growth for non-residents and permanent residents began to grow rapidly from 1990s while the growth of the citizen base is largely attributed to permanent residents taking up citizenship in Singapore

Singaporersquos open immigration policy has allowed population to increase very rapidly but growth is expected to be moderate with tightening of immigration policy

Population in Singapore (lsquo000)

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics Board amp UN Population Data

Forecast rarrlarrActual

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-Residents

PR

Citizens

Total

A balanced moderate immigration policy is assumed for estimation of population growth from 2016-2050Non Residents includes population residing in Singapore for long-term but do not hold PR or Citizenship (eg EP Worker Pass etc)

CAGR(1970-2015)

99

39

17

28

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 120

Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP

Singapore has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world and far surpasses neighboring countries in the region

GDP per capita is also expected to continue growing from 2017-2020

Source NRI based on IMF

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Nominal GDP per Capita (USD)

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 121

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

Despite the strong GDP per capita figures Singaporersquos growth rate remains volatile due to the nature of its open economy

Effects of business cycles exerts a more pronounced effect on GDP growth rate as the Singapore economy is closely linked to the global trade cycle

Source NRI based on IMF data

Real GDP growth rate of major economies ()

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SingaporeThailand

MalaysiaIndonesia

Dot-com Bubble Burst

Global Financial

Crisis

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Actual Standard Deviation

(2000-2016)

09242542

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 122

Macro Fundamentals - GDP

This is not surprising given that net exports of goods amp services constitute more than one quarter of the Singaporersquos economy

Both domestic amp external consumption (net exports of goods amp services) are volatile and could potentially exhibit relatively large swings in periods of economic growth and recession

Source NRI based Singapore Statistics Board

Share of GDP by Expenditure ()

23 26 27 24 22 25 26 26

2926 26 27 28 27 26 25

10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11

37 36 36 37 37 37 37 37

2011

2 20 3 3

2009 2010 2012

2

2016

345169 376826322361 358517 406242390185 408686

1 0

281090

20142013 2015Net Exports Of Goods And Services

Changes In InventoriesPrivate Consumption ExpenditureGovernment Consumption Expenditure

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 123

Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate stayed in the negative range in 2015 -2016 period as a result of declining oil prices etc but expected to recover in 2017

Inflation rate is expected to stay rise between 05 - 15 in 2017 based on forecasts by economists from various investment banks This will be due to a rise in energy costs as well as fading of the temporary disinflationary effects of budgetary measures

Source NRI based on IMF data

Annual y-o-y change in Singaporersquos CPI ()

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 124

Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate

The SGD has generally been on an appreciating trend being adjusted and watched very closely by the central bank as a tool to keep prices stable

The Singapore Dollar does not exhibit much volatility as it operates under a managed float system within an undisclosed band pegged to an undisclosed basket of currencies

Source NRI based Monetary Authority of Singapore

S$ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER)

Appreciation

Depreciation

S$NEER reflects exchange rates against a basket of currencies instead of any single currencyIndex Jan 1999 = 100

05

055

06

065

07

075

08

085

98

103

108

113

118

123

128

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD

SG

D

S$N

EER

IND

EX

USDSGD

S$NEER

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 125

Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance

In spite of the relatively high level of government debt Singapore continues to be a net creditor country with AAA ratings from international credit rating agencies

Borrowings by the Singapore are matched by even higher levels of assets and the country does not run any fiscal deficits

The government is instead borrowing in order to issue debt securities which are required in the domestic bond market to provide a risk-free benchmark against other corporate debt securities

Ratio of Government Debt to GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Forecast rarrlarrActual

Source NRI based on IMF data

Ratio of Government Primary Net LendingBorrowing to GDP ()

Forecast rarrlarrActual

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2017 2019 20212015 20182012 201620142009 2011 20202013

Singapore

IndonesiaMalaysia

Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 126

Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks

Consistently ranked among the top 10 countries with the lowest public perception of corruption political risks in Singapore remains low

Low political risks is one of the factors in Singapore that have contributed to a conducive environment for business amp investment

Source NRI based on Transparency International Data

Trend of Transparency International Corruption Perception Index among selected ASEAN Countries (2016)

Top 10 countries of International Corruption Perception Index(Higher ranking indicates lower risk)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

A lower score indicates greater negative perception of public sector corruption

RANK 2014 2015 2016

1 DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK

2 NEW ZEALAND FINLAND NEW ZEALAND

3 FINLAND SWEDEN FINLAND

4 NORWAY NEW ZEALAND SWEDEN

5 SWITZERLAND NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND

6 SINGAPORE NORWAY NORWAY

7 NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND SINGAPORE

8 INDONESIA SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS

9 LUXEMBORG CANADA CANADA

10 CANADA GERMANY GERMANY

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 127

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 128

Office market- Geographic Area

76 of the existing office is located at CBD area Singapore government extends the Central Business District towards Marina Bay to support the demand of quality office spaces

Major Office Area in Singapore Central Business District

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority Master Plan Mapletree Commercial Trust

Site area (ha)

Total DevelopmentGFA (mil sqm)

Total Office GFA (mil sqm)

31 177 11

85 415 282 (estimated)

24 16 11 (estimated)

Raffles Place

Extension of existing financial district

Recent developments

Office Area in Singapore2015

CBD Core sub-market

50

Fridge CBD26

Decentralised sub-market

24

bull Existing central business district is located at Raffles Place Shenton Way and Tanjong Pagar

bull To position Singapore as one of the leading financial hub government plans to double the size of the existing financial center by extending towards Marina Bay

bull Recent developments is expected to provide more than 11 million sqm of premium office space upon completion

CBD Core sub-market Raffles Place Shenton Way Marina Centre Marina BayFringe CBD Tanjong Pagar Beach Road City Hall Orchard RoadDecentralized sub-market Alexandra HarbourFront Thomson Novena Tampines River Valley

Raffles Place

Shenton Way

TanjongPagar

Marina Bay

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 129

Office market- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate decreased gradually from 2015Q2 to 2016Q2 It has started to increase since 2016Q3 when major office developments were completed

Office Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

7456 7455

7408

7553 7575 7583

7580

7559 7536

7563

7664 7730

7761

7837

10 96

84

102 10298

9695 92 91

104111

116124

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7250

7350

7450

7550

7650

7750

7850

7950

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

rsquo000 sq m nett

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 130

Office market- Price and Rental Index

Office rent has been in downwards trend since 1Q15 due to significant increase in supply in 4Q14 The capital value of office space stagnates due to the downward pressure of the declining rental

Price and Rental Index of Office Space in Central Region

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Price Index Rental Index

Index

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Note 1) The price indices are compiled from information in caveats (A legal document lodged by a purchaser to protect

her his interests after an option to purchased is exercised or a Sales amp Purchase Agreement is signed) lodged at the option stage with the Singapore Land Registry The price in 4Q98 are used as the base reference price of the index

2) Rental Index of office space are obtained from Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS)

bull The Singapore office rental market performed well in 2014 due to tight market conditions However office rental growth has been subdued since the first quarter of 2015

bull Price of office property had been stagnant since the first quarter of 2015 and eventually fall due to underperforming rental market and increasing supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 131

Office market- Future Supply

A sharp rise in office space supply is expected to outstrip the growth in demand in the coming years The pressure on vacancy rate is expected to rise

Pipeline Supply of Office Space in Singapore

367

185

20

138

36 400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 gt2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Property Total Office GFA (lsquo000 sqf)

Expected year of completion

Vision Exchange 475 January 2017

Oxley Tower 130 January 2017

UIC Building 276 April 2017

Marina One 1800 April 2017

Frasers Tower 690 April 2018

Robinson Tower 195 April 2018

Paya Lebar Quarter 8835 December 2018

Central Boulevard 1000 Q2 2020

Golden Shoe Car Park 1000 Q1 2021

Source Corporate Locations

bull Out of the office supply from 2015 Q2 to 2018 Q4 528 is located in the Core CBD 311 in the Fridge CBD and the remaining in the Decentralized sub-markets

bull Around one-fifth of the future supply is sold on a strata-titled basis it means more investment opportunity for investors that are looking for smaller and more affordable individual unit of office space

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 132

Office market- Cap rate

Cap rate of office in CBD area in 2016 is around 38 in average

2016 Capitalization Rate of Office in CBD

3938 39 42 39

3838 38 38 38

00

10

20

30

40

50

Cap rate ()

Source CapitaLand Commercial Trust 2016 annual report Keppel REIT 2016 annual report

REIT Asset Type InvestmentProperties

CapitalandCommercial Trust

bull Office (70)bull Retail (18)bull Hotel and

Convention Centre (12)

By gross rental income

bull Capital Towerbull Six Battery Roadbull One George Streetbull Raffles City Towerbull CapitaGreenbull Twenty Ansonbull HSBC Building

Keppel REIT bull Office bull Ocean Financial Centre

bull Marina Bay Financal Centre

bull One Raffles Quaybull Bugis Junction

Towers

Office REIT in Singapore

bull Capitaland Commercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust Suntec REIT OUE Commercial REIT are the major office REIT in Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 133

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 134

Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling

CAGR of condominiums market is much higher than that of HDB Foreigners cannot purchase of HDB according to Residential Property Act imposing restrictions on foreigners in

1973

More households stay in condominiums and other apartments over the years while the percentage of households living in HDB flats is slowly going down in the last 5 years

9359 9437 9484 9395 9618 9652 9811 10115

1178 1320 1269 1399 1437 1618 1708 1824

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HDB Condominiums amp Other Apartments

Source NRI based on Singapore Statistics

Number of Households by Type of Dwelling in Singapore

(lsquo000)

HDBHousing amp Development Board public housing in Singapore

CAGR 562

CAGR 098

Condominiums

HDB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 135

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Around 50 of transactions for units outside Central Region dropped from 2012 to 2014 Several property cooling measures such as introducing 60 cap from 80 on the Total Debt Serving Ratio (DSR)

and 30 cap on the Mortgage Servicing Ratio(MSR) in 2013 badly affected the number of sales transactions

Dramatically dropped the demand for Private Residential Units since 2013 due to property cooling measures

(units)

Source NRI based on URA

Number of Sales transactions for Private Residential Units by area

4832 5028 3695 1976 1859

8943 90976861

4058 3828

1886523748

12163

6813 8430

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Core Central Region Rest Central Region Outside Central Region

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 136

Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis

Minimum Cash Down Payment is getting higher from 10 to 25 when you purchase the 2nd and subsequent Residential property

Foreigners have an obligation to pay 15 ABSD of sales price of residential

Drastic drop of transactions of Private Residential is due to strict restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013 in addition to introduction of higher cap on DSR and MSR

1st Housing 2nd Housing 3rd Housing

LTV Limit 80 or 60 60 or 40rArr50 or 30

60 or 40rArr40 or 20

Minimum Cash Down Payment 5 (for LTV of 80) 10 (for LTV of 60) 10rArr25 10rArr25

BSD1 on first $1800002 on next $1800003 for the remainder

ABSD(Singapore Citizens) Not applicable Not applicable rArr7 3rArr10

ABSD(Foreigners) 10rArr15

LTV Loan to Value BSDhellipBuyerrsquos Stamp DutyABSDhellipAdditional Buyerrsquos Stamp DutyIf the loan tenure is more than 30 years or extends past age 65

Change of Governmental Restrictions on investment for Private Residential in 2013

Source NRI based on IRAS and MAS

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 137

Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate

From 2013 to 2014 vacant rate got dramatically high compared to the change from 2011 to 2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Occupied Vacant

5061

53

7989 86

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Current Stock and Vacancy of Private Residential Units (Including Executive Condominium)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 138

Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property

Sales Price Index has gradually dropped in 2013 due to higher vacancy rate over the years

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4

Sales Index of Private Residential

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 139

Residential market ndashFuture Supply

The rise in Private Residential Unites can be seen in the next years The number of new Private Residential units seems to decrease at Core Central Region

The supply for Outside Central Region is expected to be the largest for the next 5 years

1850

3578

727 661480

3862

3820

3233 3591

514

4550

7180

54963137

4099

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Core Central Region Rest of Central Region Outside Central Region

(Units)

Source NRI based on URA

Supply in the Pipeline of Private Residential Units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 140

Residential market-Cap Rate

Capitalization rate has been dropping due to the higher vacancy rate

29 29

24

28

24 2321 21

27 2724

2826

2422 22

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

()

Claymore HillAdmore Park(Upper Class) River Valley(Middle Class)

Capitalization Rate for Upper class and Middle class

Source NRI based on Japan Association of Real Estate Appraisers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 141

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 142

Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate

Vacancy Rate is getting higher which causes gradual increase of availability of floor space after Q1 of 2015

56335698

57175766

58185914

59485973

59495971

5990

6019

60366046

6017

603553

45

58 5965

58

6872 70 72 73

7884

75 77 81

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5400

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

20133Q

20134Q

20141Q

20142Q

20143Q

20144Q

20151Q

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Available Floor Space Vacancy Rate

Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate of Retail

(000 sq m)

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 143

Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space

Those prices were stable until 2014 but due to slowdown of demand for retail space vacancy rate is increasing and affects both of these index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space is going down affected by the higher vacancy rate in every quarter in 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Price Index Rental Index

Price and Rental Index of Retail Space in Central Region

Source NRI based on URA

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 144

Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore

Thanks to internet accessibility high penetration of mobile devices and strong governmental support for online retailers in Singapore attract consumers to shopping online instead of going all the way to malls

Consumers previously shopped at brick-and-mortal stores now prefer to shift shopping online retailers which causes lower demand for physical shopping spaces

2611

3533

25542338

1446 1563

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Average Top 20 Top 21~40

Top 41~60

Top 61~80

Top 81~100

(SGD)

2015 2025(Estimate)Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Retail Sales(bnUSD)

EC Sales out of Retail

Singapore 48 21 81 67Malaysia 91 11 152 54Thailand 113 08 202 55Vietnam 67 06 160 47Philippines 100 05 206 47Indonesia 238 06 575 80

E-Commerce market size in SEA and monthly average amount of Online shopping in Singapore by Income group

Source NRI based on Google Temasek and Department of Statistics of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 145

Retail market-CAP Rate

South East Region has highest Cap Rate according to the CAP Rate of the main malls in Singapore

Retail Capitalization Rate by Core Central Region and Other Regions

50

52

54

56

58

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Central Core Region South EastNorth West South West

Source NRI based on Capital Land Frasers Centerpoiint and SPH REIT

Central Core RegionJunction 8AtriumBugis+ Clarke Quay Paragon Wisma Atria Ngee Ann City Bugis Junction Plaza Singapura

South EastTampines Mall Bedok Point Changi City Point

North WestBukit Panjang Plaza Causeway Point Northpoint Lot One Shopperrsquos Mall Yew Tee Point

South WestJcube Clementi MallData for 2010 and 2011 are not available because Jcubeand Clementi Mall was open in 2011 and 2012 respectively

List of Malls for Capitalization Rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 146

Retail market- Future Supply

This is in line with governmentrsquos strategy ldquoWork-Live-Playrdquo solutions decentralizing working and living function to Outside Central Region

New retail supply will be suburbs especially Outside Central Region and large proportion of OCR retail will be in the East

Central34

South East30

NorthWest23

North East13

Project name and location Area Name of Developer Gross Floor Area

Expected year of final TOP

Hotelretail development at Airport Boulevard

SouthEast

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

90000 sq m

na

Northpoint City at Yishun Central 1

North West

North Gem Development Pte LtdFC North Gem Trustee Pte Ltd

39050 sq m

2018

Additionsalterations and extension to existing Singapore Post Centre at Eunos Road 8

South East

Singapore Post Limited 25000 sq m

na

Hillion Mall at Jelebu Road North West

Sim Lian JV (BP Retail) Pte LtdSim Lian JV (BP) Pte Ltd

20490 sq m

na

Officeretail development for Changi Airport Terminal 4 at Airport Boulevard

South East

Changi Airport Group (S) Pte Ltd

19710 sq m

na

Proportion of Future Retail Supply by locations in 2016-2018 and the 5 largest pipelines in Singapore

Source NRI based on URA IE Singapore DBS

( Based on the sq m)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 147

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 148

Logistics Space- Geographic Area

Most of the warehouse space is located in the eastern and western part of Singapore

Source Google map NRI created based on public information

Hankyu Hanshin Express Singapore ( 1 )

Company name(Number of warehouse)【Legend】

Sumitomo Warehouse (Singapore) Pte Ltd ( 2 )

Sankyu (Singapore) PTE LTD ( 6 )

KEPPEL TampT ( 5 )

MAPALE TREE ( 50 )

SCHENKER SINGAPORE (PTE) LTD ( 11 )

Kintetsu World Express ( 2 )Acsendas ( 23 )

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 149

Logistics Space- Demand Trend

Manufacturing activities has been expanding in the past 13 months Industrial space market is expected to improve gradually

Singapore Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) Container Traffic of Singapore Port

PMI

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb-

15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb-

16

Apr

-16

Jun-

16

Aug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb-

17

Apr

-17

Jun-

17

Aug

-17

Note Singapore PMI measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 400 industrial companiesSource Singapore Institute of Purchasing amp Materials Management (SIPMM)

279299

259284

299316

326339

309 309

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

million TEUs

Source Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 150

Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy

Vacancy rate reduced gradually from 2016Q3 to 2017Q1 but increased in the most recent quarter following the higher rate of increase in warehouse space supply

Warehouse Stock amp Vacancy Rate in Singapore

79 82 83 84 85 86 87 89 91 93 94 95 96 101

89

115

96

82

100

84

75

86

96

110 109

103101

119

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Thousands sq m

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 151

Logistics Space- Rental Index

Warehouse rental is on the downward trend in recent years

Rental Index of Warehouse in Singapore

Index

Note 1) Before 4th Quarter 2014 the rental index is computed based on transactions in the Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 the scope of the rental index is expanded to

include transactions outside Central region From 4th Quarter 2014 and 1st Quarter 2016 the weights used are fixed using 2012 and 2015 transaction values respectively

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 152

Logistics Space- Future Supply

There will be a total of 084 million sqm GFA of warehouse space expected to be completed by 2021 and a surge in supply in 2017

Pipeline Supply of Warehouse in Singapore

394

162135 140

130

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

rsquo000 sqm gross

Source Urban Redevelopment Authority

Project Description Name of Developer GFA (sq m)

Expected year of completion

Poh Tiong Choon Logistics Hub at Pandan Road

Poh Tiong ChoonLogistics Ltd 50940 2017

Warehouse Development at Benoi Road GKE Warehousing amp Logistics Pte Ltd 39760 2017

Warehouse Development at PioneerRoad

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 71680 2017

Warehouse Development at JalanAhmad Ibrahim Tuas Avenue 1

HSBC InstitutionalTrust Services Ltd 44310 2018

JTC Logistics Hub Gul Circle JTC Corporation 95310 2019

Warehouse Development at Tuas South Avenue 14

Diamond Land Pte Ltd 65230 2020

Major Projects in the Pipeline as of 2017 Q2

Source JTC Corporation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 153

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 154

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)

Visitor arrivals into Singapore has been increasing steadily since the 2008 global recession with numbers reaching stable levels in recent years

The increase in visitors can be attributed to increasing flight capacities into Singapore especially new direct connecting flights to secondary Chinese cities as well as an increase low-cost carriers (LCC) within SEA region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore (millions) (by mode of transport) (2007-2016)

103 10197

116

132

145

156151 152

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Land

Sea

Air

Total

CAGR 45 164

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 155

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)

Indonesia China Malaysia amp Australia constitute the top four largest countries for visitor numbers in Singapore

Visitor numbers from these countries have remained in the top four ranking boosted by the services of regional low cost-carriers in the region

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Top visitors by nationalities () 2010-2014

197 1960 198 200 179

120 1400 146 114 138

87 850 8282 77

73 720 7271 69

523 507 502 533 537

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Indonesia China Malaysia Australia Others

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 156

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)

More than half of the visitors into Singapore are here for leisure purposes and 1 in 5 are here for business purposes

The high percentage of visitors coming to Singapore for leisure purposes suggests that initiatives to boost tourism in Singapore has been considerably successful in attracting visitors into the country

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Main Purpose of Visit () 2015

58 59 56

43

77

2013

1333

812 20

2115

6

10 8 10 9 9

Total Indonesia China Malaysia Australia

Leisure Business Others Not stated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 157

Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)

Indeed though visitor numbers are relatively stable throughout the year they tend to peak during festive occasions or promotional periods

The peak from June to August can be attributed to the annual Great Singapore Sale an event organized by Singapore Tourism Bard amp Singapore Retailers Association to promote tourism in Singapore

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Visitor Arrival Numbers to Singapore

Great Singapore Sale

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20162013

2011

2009

F1 Grand Prix

End-of year

Holidays

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 158

Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply

While hotel room supply continues to increase each year post-recession occupancy rates have also stabilized staying close to 85 levels

Recent significant additions to hotel supply include Westin Singapore Marina Bay (2014) Sofitel So Singapore (2014) Holiday Inn Express (2014) amp Patina Hotel (2015)

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Available Room Nights (lsquo000) amp Occupancy Rate ()

84858686878685

81

76

12378

2010

11262

14241

2013

13118

10589

2015

15131

20142012

12451

2011

+54

2016

16162

2009

10875

2008

Average Occupancy Rate ()Available Room Nights

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 159

Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue

With the exception of luxury segment all other room segments are witnessing slight declines in room rates and RevPar

This downward pressure on rates and revenues is expected to continue as the influx of new hotel rooms continue for the next few years

Source NRI based on Singapore Tourism Board

Average Room Rates by Room Segment (S$)Average Revenue per Available Room (RevPar) (S$) by Room Segment

4314 43594618 4491 4482

3014

2685 2668 2651 2612

1971 1906 1852 1749 1698

1107 1004 1098 1050 987

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

35183840

40433885 3812

2647

2307 2325 2282 2216

1708 1650 1573 1495 1453

940 846 878 833 777

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Luxury

Upscale

Mid-Tier

Economy

Luxury - Includes hotels in the luxury segment and are predominantly in prime locations andor in historical buildings Upscale - Includes hotels in the upscale segment and are generally in prime locations or hotels with boutique positioning in prime or distinctive location Mid-Tier - Includes hotels in the mid-tier segment and are primarily located in prime commercial zones or immediately outlying areasEconomy - Includes hotels in the budget segment and are generally located in outlying areas

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 160

Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline

The hotel industry in Singapore braces itself for a large supply influx of new rooms with more than 2000 rooms slated to be completed by end of 2017 alone

The influx of new rooms is the greatest since the completion of the two integrated resorts in Marina Bay Sands (MBS) amp Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in 2010 and 2011 respectively

Source NRI based on various sources Straits Times TODAY etc

Source NRI based on Urban Redevelopment Authority

Number of Hotel Rooms in the Pipeline Selected RecentFuture Hotel Developments (2017)

60908

2565

2464

1331

182

342

582344

58000

60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber o

f hot

el ro

oms

Existing Under Construction

Planned (Written Permission) Planned (Provisional Permission)

ExpectedCompletion Year Hotel Name No of

Rooms

2017 JW Mariott Hotel Singapore South Beach 634

2017 The Warehouse Hotel 37

2017 Ascott Orchard Singapore 220

2017 Park Hotel Farrer Park 300

2017 Santa Grand Hotel Boat Quay 41

2017 Sofitel Singapore City Centre 223

2017 Andaz Singapore 342

2017 Courtyard by Marriott Singapore Novena 250

2017 The Duxton Club 49

2017 YOTEL Singapore 600

2017 Novotel Singapore on Stevens 254

CAGR 31

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 161

Singapore Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Retail Property Market

5 Logistics Property Market

6 Hotel Market

7 Real Estate Investment Products

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 162

REIT Market

S-REIT has grown rapidly since the successful launch of the first REIT in 2002 S-REIT market capitalization has now attained a scale of USD 556 billion

Market Capitalization of REIT In USD Billion 2002- 2017

There are 38 listed REITs as of the end of June 2017

Source NRI based on Capital IQ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 163

REIT Market

Recent yield spread between S-REIT has also stayed close to 5

Although the S-REIT dividend yield rose sharply in 2009 due to fears that the mortgage crisis would spread to Singapore it has remained at approximately 7 since then

Source NRI based on Bloomberg

Average S-REIT dividend yield and spread with 10-year Singapore government bond

()

0

5

10

15

20

25

Spread 10-year SGB Yield Average Dividend Yield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 164

REIT Market

Retail Industrial and Office REIT are the major type of REIT in Singapore S-REITs also diversify into residential hotel amp resort healthcare and data center industry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized

Market Capitalization of REIT by Asset TypeIn USD Billion 2003- 2017

Asset Composition (2017)

SpecializedHealthcareHospitalityResidentialDiversified

Office

Industrial

Retail

18348232

122

160

245

306

1 Office1 Industrial 2 Retail

1 Healthcare1 Hospitality1 Residential1 Diversified3 Office4 Industrial 5 Retail

2 Healthcare1 Hospitality2 Residential1 Diversified3 Office7 Industrial 7 Retail

1 Specialized2 Healthcare5 Hospitality1 Residential4 Diversified6 Office9 Industrial 9 Retail

Number of REIT by asset type

Source Capital IQ

Chart1

Retail
Industrial
Office
Diversified
Residential
Hospitality
Healthcare
Specialized
4919
2929
0
0
0
0
0
0
12344
6189
5458
0
0
0
0
0
24064
15716
7312
9248
0
0
0
0
35082
20048
14636
11758
3173
0
0
0
72317
42532
34987
1854
7953
1223
1446
0
6508
3439
26179
1561
762
10519
6422
0
4945
28821
20857
10018
3758
4861
5197
0
76738
47631
39742
17782
6188
1220
7522
0
104025
87777
5322
27407
12393
16405
13105
0
112013
93221
56364
24259
11898
1450
13616
0
130698
107712
68086
47917
15109
31961
17999
0
159443
115798
80495
64488
1741
4230
18342
0
163131
109375
75232
6225
16744
45395
18358
6831
168423
127015
82747
6425
13784
41719
19079
7627
172877
138636
90674
69255
18147
46492
18982
1031

Sheet1

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 165

REIT Market

S-REITs have geographically diversified portfolio with 36 of international asset

S-REIT Geographical Coverage by Asset ValueIn 2016

Singapore64

Hong Kong10

China6

Australia New

Zealand6

Japan South Korea

4

India3

Europe2

US1

Other Asia4

36 of the total asset value of Singapore REITs is contributed by foreign property asset

Overseas property assets are mainly located in Hong Kong China Australia and New Zealand

Geographically diversified portfolio is driven by these factorsbull Singapore-based REIT have to venture overseas market

due to the limited domestic real estate market Furthermore S-REIT is granted tax exemption on qualifying foreign-sources income from overseas property As of 2015 22 out of 34 S-REITs hold foreign real estate

bull Favorable tax environment in Singapore actively attracts foreign REIT to list in the country

Source DBS Bank

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 166

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 167

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 168

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population is around 66 million people Thailand is currently under military coup and the current reign of King Rama X started since October 2016

Source Department of Provincial Administration Official Statistics Registration Systems BMA Data Center The Bureau of Registration Administration Bank of Thailand Office of Ethnic Affairs National Real Estate Information Center

Country Name The Kingdom of Thailand

National Characteristic

Population 65931550 people (As of 2017)

Religion Buddhism (946) Islamism (42) Christianity (11) Hinduism Sikhism and Others (01) (As of 2014)

Ethnic Composition

Thai (987) Sino-Tibetan (08) Austroasiatic (03) Malayo-Polynesian (02) (As of 2012)

Political Structure

Political System Constitutional democracy

Head of State King Vajiralongkorn (King Rama X)

Head of Government Prime minister - General Prayut Chan-ocha

No of Ministries 20 ministries

Geographical Characteristic

Land Area 513208 kmsup2 (Japan = 377962 kmsup2)

Capital City Bangkok - Population 10765226 people (as of 2016)

Time Zone (UTC+0700) Bangkok Hanoi Jakarta

OthersCurrency Thai baht (100 Yen = 309084 Thai baht) (As of 10 April 2017)

Language Thai (Official language)

Overview of ThailandThailandrsquos map

Northern

NortheasternCentral

Eastern

West

South

Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 169

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos economy shows sign of recovery and is expected to expand continuously

Source IMF

14 17

-11

-54

42

-01

1520

03

12 10 1206 08

02 07 06

50 54

17

-07

75

08

72

27

09

29 32 30 33 32 31 30 30

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

Japan Thailand

It is expected that the growth of GDP of Thailand will be driven primarily from fiscal stimulus and tourist receipts The government policy about public investment in infrastructure advanced manufacturing and innovation-driven

projects recovery in services and private consumption could also underpin growth

GDP annual growth rate of Japan and Thailand in 2006-2022f

ForecastActual

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 170

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Service sector is a driver for GDP growth

GDP by Sector 2006-2015 (Current Value)

790 849 978 946 1138 1311 1422 1463 1330 1193

3299 3589 3843 37394325 4305 4625 4779 4878 4975

43124638

4886 4974

53465691

63106680 6996 7505

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector( as of 2015)

Services(5489)

CAGR 57

Industry(3639)

CAGR 42

Agriculture(872)

CAGR 42

Source World Bank Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 171

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Bangkok and vicinities have been the central of business in Thailand generating almost half of national GDP

Source Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board

Gross Regional Product of Thailand 2006-2015

3915 4172 4380 4351 4774 4931 5377 5688 6027 6397

1481 1704 1812 1716

1966 2028 2255 2308

2392 2405

733 800 830 939

1055 1151 1278

1373 1312 1328

823 858

911 876

1069 1185

1163 1168 1141

1199

635 669

753 763

860 926

1102 1116 1100

1069

491 537

657 634

691 657

720 807 763

789

322 337

364 380

394 428

462 460 470

486

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities Eastern North Eastern Southern Northen Central Western

Eastern which ranks the second GDP generator is the special economic zone of the project Eastern Seaboard and the project Eastern Economic Corridor

Region( as of 2015)

Northeastern (971)

Eastern (1759)

Central (577)

Southern (877)

Northern (782)

Bangkok andvicinities (4679)

Western (356)

THB billions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 172

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos GDP per capita has been growing from 2006-2016 Among ASEAN it ranks the fourth after Singapore Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia

GDP per capita 2005-2016 ndash Thailand

128137

146 144160 167

182 189 191 197 204

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source IMF

52755

21497

9811

59403620 2978 2174 1865 1416 1235

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000THB thousands USD

GDP per capita 2016 ndash ASEAN countries

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 173

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Since flooding in Bangkok in 2011 interest rate has consistently declined to 150 and it is expected to stay at this level to boost Thai economic growth

Source Bank of Thailand

500

125150

487

212

504

583

272

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Rate T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 5 years T-Bill amp Government Bond Yield 10 years

Rates at the end of month

Thailand interest rate in 2007-2017

Bank of Thailand announced to remain the implementation of the Expansionary Monetary Policy in order to strengthen Thailand economic situation

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 174

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

THB had shown the depreciation against JPY after reaching the strongest point in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Exchange rate between THB to 100 JPY and THB to USD to THB in 2006-2017

Debt crisis in EuropeSubprime mortgage crisis in US Quantitative easing program implementation in Japan

3578

2907

3445

3048

2766

4104

2711

3128

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USD to THB 100 JPY to THB

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 175

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailandrsquos population has continually been aging and is expected to be aged society within 2025

National population by gender and age group in 2005 and 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Thailand 2005 Thailand 2015 Japan 2015

4000 2000 0 2000 4000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Male Female

Source UN National Statistical Office

In 201518 of total population are 0-14 year age group and 10 are people over 65 years old It is predicted that within 2025 the proportion of age group of over 65 years will be 16 of total population defining

Thailand as aged society

(Thousands people)(Thousands people) (Thousands people)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 176

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

The number of households in Thailand is increasing while the family size tends to reduce The type of family changes from extend family to nuclear one

Thailand average household size in 2006-2015

Source Population and housing census Thailand National Real Estate Information Center

In 2016 Thailand has 21326000 households in total There is an increase in numbers of households in Bangkok and vicinities whereas the number of household in North Eastern which is the highest one has declined

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok and vinicities North Eastern Northen

Southern Eastern Western

Central

Thousands households

34 3432 32 33 32 33 32 31

29

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Persons

Number of households by regions 2006-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 177

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Family living in Bangkok and vicinities earned the highest amount of income

Source National Statistical Office

Average annual household income in different regions in 2007-2015

RegionAverage annual household income (THB thousand)

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bangkok and vicinities 327 346 347 395 437

Eastern 227 240 271 317 332

Central 226 280 268 345 305

Southern 233 263 314 326 303

North Eastern 153 178 215 220 248

Western 193 214 205 256 245

Northern 157 186 203 232 234

Average 21657 24386 26043 29871 30057

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 178

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Household consumption House andor land Farming Business Education Others

163087

116681

134699 134900

156770

THB

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Thailand household debt to GDP decreased in 2017 but it is still considered at high level Household consumption and housing were the main purposes of borrowing

Average household debt to GDP in 2008-2017

517 524

579 593

662

718765

799 812 799

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average debt per household by purposes in 2007-2015

Thailand household debt to GDP had been rising for a decade and just showed the sign of decline due to the growth in GDP and shrinking in personal loan resulting from more stringent loan standard by banks

Spending on household consumption and house andor land contributed around 70 of average household debt in 2015

Source Bank of Thailand

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 179

Macro Fundamentals of Thailand

Electric train transport will cover most areas of BKK within 2022 3 international airports (Don Mueang Suvarnabhumi and U-Tapao) will be linked by Airport Rail Link

Mass Rapid Transit System (MRT)

Source Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand

Line Route Start construction Open service

Current MRT network

Airport Rail Link Phaya Thai ndash Suvannabhumi Operating

Green Mo Chit ndash BearingNational Stadium ndash Bangwa Operating

Blue Bang Sue ndashHualumpong OperatingPurple Bang Yai ndash Bang Sue Operating

Planned projects

Dark RedThammasat University ndash Rangsit 2015 2018Rangsit ndash Bang Sue 2015 2020

Hua Lampong ndash Maha chai Planned Planned

Light RedTaling Chan ndash Bang Sue 2015 2018Bang Sue ndash Makksan - Hua Mak 2015 2018

Airport Rail Link Don Muang ndash Bang Sue ndash Phaya Thai 2015 2019

Dark GreenMo Chit - Khu Khot 2015 2020Bearing - Samutprakarn ndash Bangpu 2012 2019

Light GreenTaling Chan - Bangwa 2016 2021National Stadium ndash Yod Sae Planned Planned

BlueTha Phra - Bang Sue 2011 2019Hua Lumpong ndash Bang Kae 2011 2019Bang Kae - Putthanomthon Sai 4 2017 2021

Purple Taopun ndash Ratchburana 2012 2019

Orange Taling Chan ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Pink Khae Rai ndash Minburi 2017 2022

Yellow Lao Phro ndash Samrong 2017 2020Gold Krung Thonburi ndash Prachatipok 2017 2020Grey Vacharaphol ndash Wutthakat - -

Airport Rail Link Don Mueang - Suvarnabhumi - U-Tapao - -

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 180

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 181

Office market

Office market in Bangkok is concentrated in CBD Inner Bangkok and currently has been spreading to city fringe considered to be potential new CBD

Core Central Business District(Asoke Phloen Chit Sathon

Siam Silom area)

bull Inner Bangkok areabull Largest office districtbull Densely occupied by government

offices embassies financial firms and corporate headquarters

bull High rent costbull Limited supply

Potential new Central Business District

(Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 area)

bull Located the north east of the core CBD

bull Lower rent costbull More available supplybull Future hub of transport

Business districts in Bangkok

Due to the scarcity of land for development in CBD and the expansion of mass transit system to surrounding areas the area in city fringe such as Ratchadapisek-Rama 9 has been developed to be another business district

Source NRI analysis

Map of Bangkok

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 182

Thousand Sqm

15

29

132

96

116107

135

146 143

118

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net new supply Net demand

Office market

The demand is expected to increase due to business expansion and governmentrsquos policy encouraging new business set-up and investment promotion

Bangkok office accumulated supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2016

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Bangkok annual net new supply and net demand in 2012-2016

Note these figures exclude multi-owner occupied premises and office buildings smaller than 5000 Sqm

Thousand Sqm

4463 4454 4478 4604 4700 4783

3801 3908 4049 4190 4333 4451

852 877 904 910 922 931

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Supply Demand Occupancy rate

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 183

Office market

The change of occupancy rate of non-CBD Grade A is mainly resulted from the completion of new buildings and the movement of tenants to the new ones The 9th Tower (57618 sqm) AIA Capital Centre (54000 sqm) Bhiraj Tower (32000 sqm) G Tower (66000 sqm)

The decline of amount of occupied space in CBD Grade B buildings might be a result of relocation of tenants from CBD Grade B buildings to new properties in non-CBD area due to rising rents and limited space

Asking rent space availability easy access by mass transit and good quality of office supply with supporting amenities are the factors supporting an increase of renting in non-CBD area

Even though there was more supply added for non-CBD Grade A offices the occupancy rate turned at high level in all areas

Occupancy rate by grade in 2014Q1-2016Q4

0

10

14Q

1

14Q

2

14Q

3

14Q

4

15Q

1

15Q

2

15Q

3

15Q

4

16Q

1

16Q

2

16Q

3

16Q

4

CBD Grade A CBD Grade B Overall Non-CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade B

928953

908

934

904

931

947

823812

927

884

917

80

85

90

95

100

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 184

Office market

Around 77 of the additional volume of supply for the next 3 years will be located in non-CBD area

Number of office building construction permits in CBD and non-CBD

Source Manager newspaper National Real Estate Information Center Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Planned future office supply in CBD and non-CBD 2017-2019

71

123 116 114

103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BuildingsZone Buildings Space

(sqm)

Expected completion

year

CBDGaysorn Office Tower 32000 2017

Samyan Mirttown 7000 2019

Non-CBD

G Tower (North Tower) 50000 2017

MS Siam Tower 48000 2018

Bhiraj Tower at BITEC 42531 2017

Singha Complex 37000 2018

T1 Office building 34000 2018

Shinnawat 4 31880 2017

Ladprao Hills 25087 2017

Aree Hill 23340 2018

Cosmo Office Park 12000 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 185

Office market

Rental rate is trending upwards and this trend is expected to continue in 2017 due to increasing demand and limited supply especially in CBD

736 753823 854

937 960

578 610 630 661723

818

572 593 626 646695

738

558 575 601 607 640 671

420 433 449 461 479 504

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CBD Grade A Non-CBD Grade A Bangkok Average CBD Grade B Non-CBD Grade B

Bangkok office asking rent per square meter by grade in 2011-2016

price at the end of year

In 2016 the overall average asking rent is increasing 62 from 2015 to be THB 738 per sqm The highest rental rate growth is shown in non-CBD Grade A buildings increasing 131

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

THB

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 186

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 187

Residential Market

Apart from the effect of economic slowdown more stringent mortgage loan criteria by banks significantly affected both buyers and developers especially small and medium-sized investment companies as well as newcomers of the real estate industry resulting in slow pace of sales and supply

Some Thai developers started the joint ventures with foreign companies to bring in innovation to improve construction process architecture and design and to finance projects For example Mitsui Fudosan and Ananda Development AP and Mitsubishi Estate and Sena Development and Hankyu Realty

In October 2015 the stimulus package which is the temporary reduction of transfer and mortgage fee was announced in order to boost the residential market after the market shrinking affected by the coup in May 2014

Residential market in Bangkok and vicinities have been expanding but with decreasing growth rate due to tightened lending criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Prachachat newspaper

Market value of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H1 (THB million)

Share( as of 2016H1)

CAGR 59

Condominium(4533)

CAGR 60

Housing(5467)

CAGR 57576524 699275 754221 842763 867646 813632 900096 901127

468422 545916

601852 566575 608603 596753 694000 747299

1916

890

393 475

-446

1303

341

-400000

0

400000

800000

1200000

1600000

2000000

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1

Housing Condominium Growth

THB millions

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 188

Residential Market

A sign of low growth in new supply is showed in both markets since developers aim to postpone new projectslaunching until the inventory will be absorbed Oversupply could be an issue for this market especially condominium in the peripheral Bangkok since there is

remaining built-but-unsold inventory as well as supply of land for development is still high

The demand of condominium markets is supported by rising number of smaller size of family changing lifestyle and convenience in transportation and living

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The number of total supply and the take-up rate of housing and condominium in Bangkok and vicinities 2012H2-2016H2 (units)

91147 107962 114006 116133 123697 120747 125991 125099 126161

6728266874 72187 81422 78502 76963 78535 77848 77668

101312127328 142563 141741 148674 146923 160658 171796 179930

40740

4290449352 54054 57324 57364

5985659642 58957

57536175 6123 5879 6118 6107 6160 6164 6190

71327480 7428 7239 7217 7192 7286 7423 7532

2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H20

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Housing units sold Housing unsold units Condominium units sold Condominium unsold units Housing take-up Condominiums take-up

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 189

Residential Market

Land price is the factor which has the most influence on the price of condominium and houses particularly condominium projects in the downtown area In 2016 overall land price in Bangkok increased approximately 4 Areas along the mass transit train lines saw an increase in price about 65-89 While midtown and

suburban showed the land price appreciation around 26-43 land prices in downtown area rose 64

Prices index of all types of properties have risen while landrsquos and condominiumrsquos price index ranked the top

Land price index and house price index by type of house for Bangkok and vicinities in 2008-2017

Note 1 Single detached house including land town house including land and condominium price indices have been constructed by using hedonic regression method (Rolling window and time dummy) (3-month moving average)

2 Land price index has been constructed by using Stratification method with monthly weight (3-month moving average)

Source Bank of Thailand Thansettakij newspaper

Reference point = 100 (Jan 2009)

89 100 102106 108 114

120 128 129 129

89

100 104106 111

124134 138 137

99118 119

131 130140

156 160171

90108

114123 124

138148

170172

40

70

100

130

160

190

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Detached house (including land) Townhouse (including land) Condominium Land

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 190

Residential Market

Criteria for good location could be the connected transportation network and the expansion of train lines in suburban areas

The majority of housing supply is condensed in suburban areas in Bangkok However they have been diffused to vicinities due to price and availability of land

Source National Real Estate Information Center Post Today newspaper

The dispersion of housing supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of housing supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

PathumThani

Bangkok

Nakorn Pathom

SamutPrakan

Samut Sakhon

LegendHousingHousing started being sold since July 2016

Nonthaburi

N = 203255

336

198

198

160

6840

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan Samut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 191

Residential Market

Supply of available land for development is still high in midtown and suburban area in Bangkok where will be the areas of the expansion of mass transit lines and facility development

In Bangkok 70 of supply is in midtown and suburban area but projects with the highest value are in the downtown area

PathumThani

Nonthaburi

Nakorn Pathom

Samut SakhonSamut Prakan

Bangkok

LegendCondominiumsCondominiums started being sold since July 2016

The dispersion of condominiums supply in Bangkok and vicinities in 2016H2 Proportion of condominiums supply by areas in 2016H2 ( of total supply units)

Source National Real Estate Information Center

N = 238887

683

153

61

8206 15

Bangkok NonthaburiPathum Thani Samut PrakanSamut Sakhon Nakorn Pathom

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 192

Residential Market

Bangkok has the highest sold rate in housing and condominium market compared to other vicinities because of convenience of transportation and facilities

Source National Real Estate Information Center

The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for housing in 2016H2 The comparison of sold and unsold unit by areas for condominium in 2016H2

493

544

548

584

596

719

507

456

452

416

404

281

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nakorn Pathom

Samut Sakhon

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

519

567

626

680

718

797

481

433

374

320

282

203

0 20 40 60 80 100

Samut Sakhon

Pathum Thani

Samut Prakan

Nakorn Pathom

Nonthaburi

Bangkok

Sold unit Unsold unit

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 193

Residential Market

Townhouse and THB 1-3 million house were the best selling products in term of units However over THB 5 million house showed increasing take-up rate

Townhouse and detached house showed a decreasing trend on demand but they still occupied around 85 of total sold units Prime townhouse in downtown or midtown became more demand since its price per square meter is lower than condominium in midtown

The number of house transfer was much less than sales particularly in houses which are less than THB 2 million because of tightened lending restrictions by banks The mortgage rejection rates were as high as 50 since borrowers especially low-to-middle-income ones have

been faced with the situation of higher level of personal debt than the required criteria by banks

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkok Post newspaper

The take-up rate of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2Sold units of houses by types in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

4725 4597 4577

3888 3827 3653

955 1123 1267

402 421 458

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Townhouse Detached house Duplexed

Shophouse Others

117 091 104

4040 3925 3921

3347 3470 3477

2495 2514 2498

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 194

Residential Market

The highest demand was shown in 1 bedroom condominium and condominium with pricing THB 1-3 million while take-up rate of over THB 5 million units is rising

For midtown and suburban areas there is an increase in supply due to land availability with reasonable price and mass transportation expansion

For downtown area there is a limited supply with the upward trend of price due to limited supply of land for development

The number of transfer units may not as high as the number of sold units because of inability to secure loan Developers had shifted their focus to the upper-end level market since this market had high take-up rate and was

less affected by strict mortgage loan criteria

Source National Real Estate Information Center Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Sold units of condominium by types in 2015H2-2016H2 Sold units of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2 The take-up rate of condominium by price ranges in 2015H2-2016H2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total le 1 million 1-3 million 3-5 million Over 5million

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Overall average in 2016H2

Note accumulated supply

1641 1675 1924

7058 7007 6826

1197 1218 1163104 100 087

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

Studio 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms ge 3 bedrooms

954 851 893

5981 5942 6094

1655 1654 1530

1411 1553 1483

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015H2 2016H1 2016H2

le 1 million 1-3 million

3-5 million Over 5 million

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 195

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

The areas for prime condominiums are well-developed as a center of business education convenient public transport and shopping malls

Prime Sukhumvit area has 4 prime projects with 597 new units launched in 2016 which share the largest portion in supply

Central Lumpini area showed the highest growth in average selling price at 99 following by Prime Sukhumvit with 81 increase Riverside-Rama III and Sathorn-Silom area which the price rose 31 and 28 respectively

Prime Sukhumvit remains the main location of prime condominiums

2016 prime projects Location Average asking

price (THBSqm) Units

98 Wireless Central Lumpini (Wireless) 550000 77

28 Chidlom Central Lumpini (Chidlom) 350000 436

Khun by Yoo Prime Sukhumvit (Thonglor 12) 300000 148

Vittorio Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 39) 280000 88

KRAAM Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 26) 275000 126

Laviq Prime Sukhumvit (Sukhumvit 57) 240000 235

New supply of prime condominium projects in Bangkok in 2016

Prime condominium is refer to condominium with pricing more than 200000 THBSqm

Location map of areas for prime condominiums in Bangkok

Central Lumpini area Prime Sukhumvit area

Riverside-Rama III area

Sathorn-Silom area

Source Property Insight news Bangkokbiz News newspaper

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 196

Residential Market ndash Prime condominium

Developer had shifted their focus to prime condominium due to limited supply and had demand from both domestic and foreign

Source Property Today news Bangkokbiz News newspaper Nation newspaper

Supplybull Luxury condominium segment accounted for less than 5 of the total Bangkok condominium supply bull In 2016 the market showed strong growth in supply by 246 increasing especially within the Prime Sukhumvit area bull Developers focused more on prime condominiums since there was purchasing power and land price in downtown area

was too high to develop middle level projects

Demand

bull There was demand with 645 take-up rate with decreasing growth rate bull Buyers in this segment did not rely on home loans and had purchasing power bull There were both domestic and foreign demand Thai buyers accounted for about 85 The rest was the foreign buyers

mostly people from Hong Kong Singapore and Taiwan who have business in Thailandbull Around 48 bought a unit for self-occupancy 36 bought to generate long-term rental income and 16 were the

short-term speculatorsbull Buyers are likely to be more selective

Price bull Price has been increased 47 in average from 2015 The highest record of asking price is THB 720000 sqm by 98 Wireless It is expected that price levels will remain high and may rise due to the land price appreciation

Challenge bull Limited of supply of land for development and high land-acquisition costbull Anticipate customerrsquos needs and deliver superior customer value

Key success factors

bull Accessibility factors convenient transportation both by car and public transportbull Living factors close to shopping malls recreation education health care and business areabull Mood amp livable factors location attributes unique ambience architecture and premium amenities are also represent

the excusive lifestyle and preferences of the target group Brand affiliation was applied as value creation for projectsbull Cost factors competitive price with high quality

Opportunity bull Condominium ownership law for foreigners 49 of total units can be occupied by foreign person

Prime condominium

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 197

Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies

There is no difference between Thai and joint venture projects in terms of price and building except one project differentiating by applying Japanese unique theme

List of Japanese companies conducting joint venture with Thai companies

Price range (THBSqm)

lt 70000 70000 -200000

gt 200000

Floo

r lev

els

gt 30

flo

ors

10 -

29flo

ors

lt 10

flo

ors

Include only new launched condominium projects in 2016-2017

Japan-Thailand joint venture projects positioning

Japanese companies Thai companies of joint venture projects

Mitsui Fudosan (Asia) Pte Ltd

Ananda Development PLC 12

Mitsubishi Estate Co Ltd AP (Thailand) PLC 8

Nomura Real Estate Development Co Ltd Origin Property PLC 3

Hankyu Realty Co Ltd Sena Development PLC 2

Shinwa Real Estate Co Ltd Woraluk Property PLC 1

Tokyu Corporation Sansiri PLC 1

Color denotes the location

1500 units 500 units

Size of circle denotes the number of units

Source NRI analysis

Suburban area with mass rapid transit accessMidtown area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 198

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 199

Hotel market trend

Number of international tourists has been increasing every year except 2014 which had politic issue and coup drsquoetat

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Malaysia Japan Korea Russia Othercoup detat

CAGR 95

Number of international tourists visiting Thailand

In 2015 Chinese tourist is around 266 which increased around 4 times in 10 years following by Malaysian 115 and Japanese 46

Thousand persons

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 200

Hotel market trend

From 2012 trend of total length of stay has been decreasing due to increasing of tourists from East Asia

95 90 91 96 100 99 98 95

59 57 59 64 68 68 67 70

158142 145

156165 165 164 169

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total EastAsia Europe

Average length of stay of international tourists

In average tourists from East Asia stay around 7 days while European tourists stay around 17 days

Days

Average length of stay of East Asia tourists in 2015

Country of resident Average length of stay (days)

China 81

Japan 80

Korea 77

Taiwan 76

Hong Kong 65

ASEAN 56

Others 72

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 201

Hotel market trend

Japanese tourist spend more on accommodation but Chinese tourist spend money more on others such as souvenir

21013

5109

9985

15273

27229

5630

10924

15884

17933

5013

10621

18330

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Others

Transportation

FoodBeverage

Accomodation

Japan China Total

Source Department of Tourism Ministry of Tourism amp Sports National Statistical Office

Average expenditure per day of Total Chinese and Japanese tourists by purpose in 2015 Average expenditure of international tourists per person per day in 2008-2015

THB

THB

4520543525 44246 44708

48262

50972

54975

59666

4521143970 44171 44724

4725049207

48876

51897

4142340112 40787

41871

43928

4616548089

51379

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Japan Total

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 202

Hotel market trend

Number of hotel room is increasing and occupancy rate also increasing with CAGR (2009-2015) around 99 In Bangkok the new supply mainly in Sukhumvit Rd

Source National Statistical Office

The number of hotel rooms and occupancy rate nationwide in 2009-2015

366455

531 528 540 551

651

368395

438487

563 581

651

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Room Occupancy Rate

Thousand units

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 203

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Office Market

3 Residential Market

4 Hotel Market

5 Logistics Property Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 204

1719 17192033

2567

3271314

533

705

315

1630 1630 1813 2015

2572

183202

557

208

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Existing supply New supply Existing demand New demand

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand Sqm

94838918

7852 7862 7750

Occupancy rate

Logistics Property Market

Market value has increased to be about THB 68 billion in 2015 with CAGR (2011-2015) 202 in supply and 143 in demand

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Warehouse supply demand and occupancy rate in 2011-2015

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 205

Logistics Property Market

The movement at ports is rising indicating an increase of demand for logistics property service

Source Ministry of Commerce Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Number of containers passing through Bangkok and Laem Chabang port in 2012-2016

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Bangkok Port - Inbound Laem Chabang Port - Inbound

Bangkok Port - Outbound Laem Chabang Port - Outbound

Thousand TEU

Remark TEU ndash Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit Container

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CAGR 45

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 206

Logistics Property Market

The positive factor for the future demand of warehouse service is growing logistic industry supported by E-commerce market and governmentrsquos projects

Source Port Authority of Thailand Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand

Segment( as of 2021f)

Government(1833)

CAGR 184Retail

(2333)CAGR 187

Businesses(6001)

CAGR 201

THB trillions

12 14 16 19 2227

3605

0506

0709

1

14

0405

0506

07

09

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

E-commerce market value in 2015-2021f List of infrastructure development projects in 2015-2022

Infrastructure projects Year

Airport Development of U Tapao airport to be aviation hub

2017-2021

Port Development of 6 ports in the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea

2015-2022

Railway Railway Standard Gauge Thailand-ASEAN-China

2015-2022

Dual-track railway (Laem Chabang port Map Ta Phut port)

2017-2021

High-speed train connecting 3 airports (Suvannabhumi Don Muaeng U Tapao)

2017-2021

Road 12 Motorway connecting between regions 2015-2022

Motorway (Bangkok-ChonburiPattaya-Map Ta Phut)

2017-2021

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 207

Logistics Property Market

Among 3 keys logistics areas Bangkok-Samutprakan has the highest supply since it is the area of airports and industrial estates and it also locates near Bangkok

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Supply share by key logistics locations

Pathumthani-Ayutthaya

Bangkok-Samutprakan

Eastern Seaboard

453

398

144

04

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard

Pathumthani-Ayuttaya Others

Map of Thailand key logistics locations

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 208

Logistics Property Market

Price competition occurred in Eastern Seaboard area since there was a rise in supply resulting from forecasted demand from Eastern Economic Corridor project

Source Knight Frank Thailandrsquos Research

Monthly warehouse rental rates by key logistics locations in 2011-2015

156157

161 161 161

152 152153

150 149147 148

150151 151

155 155

158157 157

140

145

150

155

160

165

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangkok-Samutprakan Eastern Seaboard Pathumthani-Ayutthaya Market rate

THBSqm

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 209

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 210

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 211

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population Growth

India is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption

Source Population Reference Bureau 2017 Datasheet USA

Indiarsquos Position in Population Growth Indiarsquos Population Structure by Age

China18

India18

USA4

Indonesia4

Brazil3

Rest53

2017 (August)

India17

China14

Nigeria4

USA4Indonesia

4

Rest57

2050F

World Population (mid-2017) 7536 mn World Population (2050F) 9683 mn

-100-050

mdash050100150200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

lation

grow

th ra

te (

)

Time (years)

India China Russia Brazil Korea Japan USA UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Percentage of population

Age (

in ye

ars)

YearMedian age (years) Dependability ratio ()Working age population ()

Most favorable period for development

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 212

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid Urbanization

India is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing

Urbanization Trends Major Urban Centers

29 33 38 43 4861

74 81

7681

8588

9092

88 81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Percentage of total population

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(00rsquo

s m

illio

n)

TimeUrban Rural Urban population as of total

Past Trend Projected Future Trend

Source 1 World Urbanization Prospects The 2014 Revision UN Population Division

2

1

6

3

7

5

4

7 Major Urban Centres (Tier 1 cities)

Non-Major Urban Centres (Tier 2 cities)

Source NRI analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 213

904 908 911 914 91996

9289

8681

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Constructionothers

Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of Economy

Although the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years

Contribution of Construction Sector to Countryrsquos GVA (Gross Value Add) at factor cost (at current prices)

As demographic pressure grows need to sustain economic growth will drive investments in the construction sector

Base year 2011-12Values INR trillion

81192

10361148

1246

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 214

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure

GDP per capita at current prices

Source IMF World Economic Outlook April 2017

The improving economic condition of the society will increase the demand for better quality infrastructure especially housing

Average Household Savings per annum

Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E2015E2016E 2019

US$

Time (years)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015IN

R (In

Tho

usan

ds)

Urban Rural Overall

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 215

Note Middle class defined as those living in households with daily per capita income between US$10-100 at 2005 US$ PPP terms

Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levels

Indiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world

Structure of Population in March 2015 by Income Top 10 Countries in Middle Class Consumption

HHI Household Income per annumHHI brackets Rich (above Rs 073mn) High middle income (Rs 073-020mn) Middle income (Rs 02-01mn) Lower Income and Poor (below Rs 01mn)Source CMIE Consumer Pyramid Data Retrieved 09th Sep 2016 Source Brookings Institution OECD Working Paper no-285 2010

RANK 2009 2020 2030

1 US 44 CHINA 45 INDIA 128

2 JAPAN 18 US 43 CHINA 100

3 GERMANY 12 INDIA 37 US 40

4 FRANCE 09 JAPAN 22 INDONESIA 25

5 UK 09 GERMANY 14 JAPAN 23

6 RUSSIA 09 RUSSIA 12 RUSSIA 14

7 CHINA 07 FRANCE 11 GERMANY 13

8 ITALY 07 INDONESIA 10 MEXICO 12

9 MEXICO 07 MEXICO 10 BRAZIL 12

10 BRAZIL 06 UK 10 FRANCE 11

WORLD 21 WORLD 35 WORLD 55

1304

58

29

87

RICHAverage HHI Rs114mn+14 over 2015

HIGH MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI Rs 033mnNo Change

MIDDLE INCOMEAverage HHI 015 mn+7 over 2015

LOWER INCOME ampPOORAverage HHI 075mn+7 over 2015

Indiarsquos middle class population would greatly drive demand in the construction sector

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 216

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 217

Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and Growth

The construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure

Sector contribution to Gross Value Added 2015-16 Real-estate market size and growth-rate

Source Ministry of Statistics amp Programme Implementation India (National Accounts Statistics 2017) Source IBEF India Julrsquo17

Total GVA value at current prices (Base year 2011-12) INR 1246 trillion

Note Real-estate market includes ownership of residential commercial and industrial dwellings and related business services

Agriculture forestry and

fishing17

Mining and quarrying

2

Manufacturing17

Electricity gas water supply amp

other utility services

3

Construction8

Trade repair hotels and restaurants

11

Transport storage

communication amp services hellip

Financial services

6

Real estate ownership of

dwelling amp professional

services15

Public administration and defence

6

Other services8

50 53 56 67 121 94 126 180

853

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2020E 2028E

US$

(bill

ion)

Time (years)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 218

Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players Performance

The real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes

Source Capital IQ amp NRI Analysis

List of Prominent Real Estate Developers (Listed Players only)

Developer Name Revenue USD mn (FY17)

FocusedMarket

Asset ClassResidential Retail Office Hospitality Industrial

DLF Ltd 1269 North India

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd

737 Bengaluru

Godrej Properties Ltd 244 West India

Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd

358 Metro Cities

Unitech Ltd 267 North India

Sobha Ltd 344 South India

The Phoneix Mills Ltd 282 West amp South

Omaxe Limited 251 North India

Brigade Enterprises Ltd 312 South India

Oberoi Realty Ltd 172 West India

HDIL 112 Mumbai

Mahindra Lifespace Developers

118 West amp South

Ashiana Housing Ltd 56 North India

Nesco Ltd 55 Mumbai

Nirlon Ltd 37 Mumbai

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 219

Financing Developments ndash Project Financing Options

Private lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed

Financing options by developers preference Recently Introduced Financing Options

PE funds

NBFC Lending

Private Lending

Bank Lending

FCCB

QIP

AIF

IPO

bull NBFC Non-banking Financial Companybull PE Private Equitybull IPO Initial Public Offeringbull ECB External Commercial Borrowing

bull QIP Qualified Institutional Placementbull FCCB Foreign currency bondsbull REMF Real Estate Mutual Fundbull AIF Alternative Investment Fundbull REIT Real Estate Investment Trustbull InvIT Infrastructure Investment Trust

Preference (high to low)

REMF

REIT

ECB

InvIT

Option Brief Description Merit

AIF bull Diversified portfolio of funds that invest in real estate infra and other priority sector projects

bull Long-term money can be invested in unlisted companies

bull Easy access of money from foreign investors

REIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of real estate assets on behalf of investors

bull Will create exit opportunities for developers and financial investors

bull Infuse transparency and liquidity in the market

InvIT bull Corporate body responsible to publicly trade manage portfolio of income generating infrastructure projects

bull Will create liquidity for private infrastructure players

bull Will lower debt exposure and unlocktied up capital of developers

Source NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 220

Financing Developments Trends in REITs

REITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

Reg

ulat

ory

Inve

stor

s

Regulation Introducedbull lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts

Regulations 2014rsquo introduced

Taxation Relaxedbull Dividend distribution tax on REITs

abolished

Operating Conditions Relaxedbull Limit on maximum number of sponsors

raised to fivebull Limit on investment in under-construction

projects raised to 20bull Foreign fund managers allowed to relocate

to India as fund manager

Investments by Banks Allowedbull Indian Central Bank (RBI) allowed

Indian banks to invest in REITs within their umbrella limit of 20 of their Net-Owned Funds

bull This umbrella limit of 20 includes bankrsquos investments in equity-linked mutual funds venture capital funds and stocks

Investments by Mutual Fundsbull Mutual funds allowed to invest up to

5 of their NAV in a single REIT with maximum REIT exposure restricted at 10 of NAV

bull GIC CPPIB Temasek ADIA in talks with IndoSpace for launching ~USD2 bn logistics REIT

bull Blackstone to launch ~USD06 bn office REIT with Embassy Group

bull DLF plans to launch office REIT by mid-2018

bull Blackstone to launch second office REIT with Panchshil Realty

bull Blackstone may consider listing its retail assets under REIT in future

bull Post approval by RBI mutual fund houses are altering their schemes to allow investments in to REITs and InvITs- DSP Blackrock MF altered two

schemes- Birla Sun Life MF altered 12

schemes- ICICI Prudential MF altered three

schemes

bull RMZ Corp (backed by Qatar Investment Authority) is looking to launch REIT by end-2017

bull K Raheja Corp is consolidating its office assets and may be considering launching an office REIT

bull Even though REIT Regulations were introduced in 2014 no real estate developer or investor had shown interest in the initial two years

bull Regulatory points such as dividend distribution tax and certain operating conditions made India REIT listings unattractive for investors

Investments by Insurance Cosbull Insurance companies allowed to

invest up to 3 of their funds in REITs with maximum holding in a single REIT restricted to 5

Source Reserve Bank of India Press Articles NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 221

Financing Developments Trends in Domestic Investments

Domestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Based on data till June 2017

563

23852078

1011

PE investments indicate deals by India-dedicated funds

6753

67

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 15x of 1Q16

2014 2015 2016 2017

Numb

er an

d Valu

e of D

eals

Key D

eals

Ann

ounc

emen

ts

bull Tata Capital ndash Shriram Properties USD80 mn

bull Peninsula Brookfield (Domestic fund) ndash Ansal API USD50 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Nirmal Lifestyle USD50mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndash Supertech USD45 mn

bull Fund raising- Kotak Realty USD400 mn- HDFC USD 250 mn

bull Indostar Capital ndash Total Environment Building Systems USD137 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Omkar Realtors and Developers USD200 mn

bull Piramal Enterprises ndashOzone Group USD96 mn

bull Kotak Realty ndash Lodha Group USD86 mn

bull Fund raising- HDFC Property USD550 mn- Arthveda USD250 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Lodha Group USD347 mn

bull Indiabulls Housing Finance ndashM3M India USD187 mn

bull Piramal Fund ndash Adarsh Developers USD110 mn

bull Altico Capital ndash Vatika Group USD103 mn

bull Fund raising- Rising StraitsUSD1000 mn- HDFC Venture USD400 mn- ASK Group USD299 mn

bull HDFC Venture Edelweiss Capital Altico Capital ndash Adarsh Developers USD144 mn for land acquisition and starting construction on five residential projects

bull Piramal Fund ndash ASF Group USD85 mn for IT SEZbull Piramal Fund ndash Wadhwa Group USD65 mn for office assetsbull Altico Capital ndash Sheth Group USD56 mn for residential project developmentbull Edelweiss Capital ndash Parinee Realty USD51 mn for under-construction luxury

residential projectbull Fund raising

- SMC Capital and REPL (EPC Developer) USD75 mn ndash SMC IM Capital- Arthveda USD250 mn ndash Affordable Low and Middle Income Fund- Indiabulls Housing Finance USD224 mn ndashDual Advantage Commercial Assets Fund- Reliance Capital USD150 mn ndash Reliance Rental Yield Fund

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 222

Financing Developments Trends in Foreign Investments

Foreign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics

2014 2015 2016 2017

Num

ber a

nd V

alue o

f Dea

lsKe

y Dea

ls A

nnou

ncem

ents

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashUnitech USD349 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash Nirlon USD225 mn

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Infinity Techno Park USD108 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndashParanjape Schemes Construction USD100 mn

bull Fund raising

- CPPIB (Canada)USD500 mn

- Hines (US) USD250 mn

bull Blackstone (US) ndash Alpha G Corp USD302 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF (Residential) USD300 mn

bull Warburg Pincus (US) ndashPiramal Realty USD284 mn

bull Goldman Sachs (US) ndash Nitesh Estates USD300 mn

bull Brookfield (Canada) ndashHiranandani USD1000 mn

bull APG Asset Management (Netherlands) ndash Godrej Properties USD275 mn

bull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Phoenix Mills USD250 mn

bull Xander APG Asset Management ndash Virtuous Retail South Asia USD109 mn

bull Fund raising

- Xander USD400 mn

- Macquarie USD500 mn

bull GIC (Singapore) ndash DLF USD1800 mn for 40 stake in rental business across office and retail assets Talks began with 25 prospective buyer and narrowed down to Blackstone and GIC

bull Blackstone (US) ndash K Raheja Corp USD250 mn for 20 mn square feet office spacebull CDPQ (Canada) ndash Piramal Enterprises USD250 mn

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Arshiya USD83 mn for six warehousesbull CPPIB (Canada) ndash Indospace Formed a USD1200 mn JV to acquire and develop

logistics facilities in India JV shall acquire 13 industrial and logistics projects totalling 14 mn square feet from current funds

bull Ascendas (Singapore) ndash Firstspace Realty Formed a JV to invest USD500-600 mn to develop 15 mn square feet logistics and industrial facilities

bull Xander (Singapore) ndash Shriram Group US$350 mn for SEZ looking for offices in Tier 1 cities

bull KKR (US) ndash Signature Global USD32 mn to develop affordable housing

Based on data till June 2017

965

30813164

1396

3422 26

11

Deal value in 1Q17 was 11x of 1Q16

Source Venture Intelligence Press Articles NRI Analysis

Indicates the total value of deals (in USD mn)Indicates the number of deals

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 223

Financing Developments Debt position of leading developers

Debt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default

Source SampP Capital IQ NRI Analysis

799

284

333

408

472

493

518

614

1235

3548

Developer Debt Position

Developer Name Total Debt Dec16 (USD mn)

Increase FY16 to Dec16

Increase FY15 to FY16

Interest Coverage Ratio

-13

35

-11

24

-12

0

-52

-9

-2

-19

4

-12

38

-12

8

0

1

-13

3

21

108

091

267

251

149

017

084

163

146

292

Note Total 10 players mentioned above account for 78 of the total debt of listed real estate players in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 224

Financing Developments Debt ndash Trends in NPAs of Banking System

Due to project loan default by developers non-performing assets of banks are increasing Government has increased pace to resolve NPA issue Global PE investors seem keen to capitalize on this opportunistic

2012 - 2014 2015 2016 2017

Key

Eve

nts

NPA

Rat

io

bull Aug-Nov 2015 RBI conducted Asset Quality Review -AQR of bank books to ensure NPAs are correctly recognized

bull Large portion of stressed loans accumulated due to default by large Indian companies

bull Banks delayed the NPA bad loan recognition to show good performance

GNPA Ratio Forecast

Forecast as per RBIrsquos lsquoFinancial Stability Reportrsquo December 2016

NPAs in Indian banking system (across sectors) ndash Ratio of Gross Non-Performing Assets to Total Advances

Source Reserve Bank of India ndash lsquoFinancial Stability Report December 2016rsquo Bloomberg Reports Mar 2017 Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both NPA ratio

bull Global PE heavyweights formed JVs to focus on investments in Indian stressed assets

- Brookfield Apollo Global Bain Capital CPPIB CDPQ and JC Flower amp Co

bull Jan-17 RBI announced that is expects NPAs to increase furtherbull May-17 Banking Regulation Act 1949 amended to give RBI more powers

to resolve NPA issue RBI now has the power to give directions to banks in India to initiate insolvency process against debt defaulters

bull Jun-17 RBI identified 12 key defaulters (together account for 25 of the total NPAs) for resolution by initiating insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016)- The lenders to these defaulters shall finalise the resolution plan within six

months failing which insolvency proceedings shall be initiated

30 35 40 4676 91 98 101

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNPA to Total Advances

Sep-16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 225Source Bloomberg Reports Press Articles NRI Analysis

Global PE Firms in Indian Stressed Asset Market

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Global PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets

Glob

al PE

Firm

s Indian Partner

Jul 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Aug 16

Mar 16

Mar 16

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 226Source VC Circle Press Articles

Recent Announcements (Illustrative List)

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Major global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets

Investor Target Seller Partner

Estimated DealValue (US$ mn)

Asset-Type

Office Residential Retail Others

Ascendas Arshiya Ltd 83 Six warehouses near Mumbai (Western India)

CPPIB IndoSpace 1200 JV to acquire 13 logistics assets (14 mn sqft)

GIC DLF - DCCDL 1800 GIC Singapore announced intention to purchase 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business DCCDL (DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd) (Across India)

KKR Signature Global

31 Affordable housing projects in Gurgaon(Northern India)

Xander Group AdarshDevelopers

20 For projects in Bengaluru area (Southern India)

- - Looking for assets in tier1 cities (Across India)

ShriramGroup

190 SEZ in Chennai (Southern India)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 227

DLF Promoters

DLF Ltd

DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd (DCCDL)

25

Assets and Projects

Assets and Projects

Public

CCPS sale to GIC

Office Retail Land Under-construction Other Assets

75

Proposed Transaction ndash Sale of CCPS held by Promoters of DLF

40 60

Case Study DLF - GIC

Financing Developments Global Investors Seek Opportunities

Recently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion

Snapshot

Deal Summarybull Sale of promoter familyrsquos 40 stake in

DCCDLbull Deal value estimated to be US$18 billionbull Funds raised to be used for debt reductionbull Expected to be closed by September 2017

DCCDL Businessbull Assets Offices Retail Landbull Operational portfolio 268 mn sqftbull Development pipeline 67 mn sqft

Source Press Articles NRI Analysis

Cumulative Convertible Preference Shares

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 228

Regulatory Developments

Recent policy initiatives such as RE regulation act GST tax reform and strong steps for resolving bank NPAs are likely to make Indian market attractive for investors

2014 - 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1Q 2Q

RE

Reg

ulat

ion

Anti-

Cor

rupt

ion

Ban

king

Sy

stem

Econ

omic

bull SEBI introduced lsquoReal Estate Investment Trusts Regulations 2014rsquo expected to bring greater accountability and reduce frauds and project delays

bull Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Bill 2015 introduced to prohibit illegal ownership transactions

bull Passed RERA -Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

bull RERA becomes effective however some states are yet to comply

bull Some states have diluted the provisions of the central act raising concerns

bull Interest Subsidy Scheme for housing loans for low and middle income groups to promote affordable housing in India

bull Real estate sector impacted by demonetization due to high volume of cash transactions

bull Goods and Service Tax (GST) to become effective from 1 July potentially simplifying the Indian indirect tax structure

bull Benami Act 2016 becomes effective

Source CBRE ndash lsquoIndia Marketflashrsquo Press Articles NRI Analysis

bull Indian central bank (RBI) conducted asset quality review (AQR) of banks to ensure NPAs are recognized and provisioned

bull Government relaxed rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in real estate

bull Removed restrictive conditions of minimum area and capitalization amount

bull Demonetization high value currency notes to remove lsquoblack moneyrsquo

bull Government amended Indian banking regulation law to give RBI more powers to resolve NPA issue

bull RBI identified 12 large debt defaulters and instructed banks to push these accounts for insolvency

bull Income Tax department identified 400 transactions for conducting investigations under Benami Act

bull Real estate assets estimated to be worth ~USD80 mn was linked in the transactions

bull Multiple states notified the draft rules and passed the regulations to meet the deadline for compliance ndash 1 May 2017

bull Banks directed to recognise NPAs and make adequate provisions resulting in steep rise in both GNPA and NNPA ratios

bull Draft law for indirect tax reform - Goods and Service Tax (GST) released in Public domain in June 2016

bull Constitutional amendment bill passed to facilitate implementation of GST

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 229

Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy Conditions

FDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years howeverrecent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector

Source Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Government of India June 2017

Summary of FDI policy in real estate sector FDI in Real-estate sector (USD bn)

Topic Brief Description

Investment Limit

bull 100 equity allowedbull Automatic authorization route no prior

government approval required

Key Restrictions

bull Construction of farm houses trading in transferable development rights (TDRs) and dealing in land or immovable property

bull Lock-in period of 3 years

Relaxations bull No lock-in period in case of hotels amp resorts hospitals SEZs educational institutions and old age homes

bull Transfer from one non-resident to another non-resident will not be subject to 3 year lock-in period

bull FDI permitted in completed projects for operations and management of townships malls shopping complexes and business centers

Key Implications

bull Will help revive projects that could not receive capital earlier

bull Foreign investors will be able to speed up its investment process

bull Encouraging environment for foreign developers

010

133

011

123

314

166

294

280

218

047

004

072

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2015-16

2014-15

2013-14Multiple corruption cases and political instability led to market downturn

2016-17

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 230

Regulatory Developments ndash Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016

Real Estate bill 2016 is a major regulation recently passed by Indian Govt This bill is expected to bring greater accountability and reduce fraud and project delays in this sector

bull Rising population and income has led to an excessive demand for housing in India for the last two decades

bull As a result several firms jumped into the housing development business to capture a share of this booming market

bull In a race to capture demand developers started launching several projects simultaneously by investing consumersrsquo money into buying new land sites

bull Gradually developersrsquo intensity started affecting their cash flows and not just numbers but project sizes became larger

bull This resulted in poor quality construction severe delay in projects completion etc leading to consumersrsquo increasing dissatisfaction legal disputes etc

bull Hence the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Bill 2016 was introduced to re-instate transparency and discipline in the real estate sector and passed in March 2016

Source News Articles

Background Key Provisions of Bill

Boom in residential market

driving new entrants

Race to capture this demand

impacted quality

Lead to consumer dissatisfaction

Scopebull Both commercial and residential assetsbull Developers brokers as well as agentsbull Under-construction projects also covered

Institutional Framework

bull All states to notify guidelines and set up regulatory boards

Fund Utilizationbull 70 of the money collected from the buyers to me maintained i

n an escrow account and to be mandatorily used for the said project

Registrationbull All covered projects need to be registered by the developer withi

n three months of setupbull Online registration facility available

Penaltiesbull In case of violations

ndash Project registrations can be cancelledndash Developerrsquos promoter(s) can be imprisoned

Interest Payments

bull In case of delay in providing possession developer shall pay same interest rate to buyer as the buyer would pay to developer in case of delay in payment

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 231

Regulatory Developments ndash Demonetization

Demonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017

Performance of Real-Estate Index

1 Mar 2017

2 Jan

2017

1 Sep 2016

1 Feb 2017

3 Apr

2017

1 Jul 2016

1 Jun

2016

2 May 2016

9314

2 May 2017

256

1 Nov 2016

3 Oct

2016

1 Dec 2016

198

8497

1 Aug 2016

1 Apr

2016

161

7713

Nifty RealtyNifty 50

True impact of demonetization may become clear by the end of 2017 with disclosure of performance by developers

The Nifty Realty (real estate index) has been moving in line with the broader Nifty 50 index

Indices Trading at all time high

Demonetization 8 Nov 2016 caused an immediate but short-term correction

Source wwwinvestingcom NRI Analysis

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 232

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 233

Office space demand in 2017 is expected to remain similar to 2016 however developers are making new launches in anticipation of demand growth post 2017

Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndAb

sorp

tion

Vaca

ncy

and

Ren

tal R

ate

106

195186153

190176 205204226183199180

2H20161H2015 1H20161H2014 2H2014 2H2015

AbsorptionNew Supply(in million sq ft)

Over the past 3 years developerrsquos cautious approach and improved economic sentiments have kept demand for office space more than the new supplyhellip

hellip this demand surplus has led to positive movement in vacancy rates and rental rates across key office space markets in India

New Supplybull Estimated to be ~30 more than

in 2016 with Bengaluru and Hyderabad being the biggest contributors

Absorptionbull Estimated to witness modest

~2 increase with Bengaluru and Delhi-NCR being the key markets

Vacancy Ratesbull Expected to improve across key

cities with the exception of Delhi-NCR and Kolkata

Rental Ratesbull Expected to improve across all

key cities with Hyderabad Delhi-NCR and Kolkata outperforming rental growth of 2016

183 174 166 156 150 135

88 92 98103 111 119

177 189 185 167 186 197

73 75 78 81 86 94

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Vacancy Rate Delhi - NCR Rental Mumbai Rental Bengaluru Rental

(Rental rate in USD per square metre per month)

Source Colliers ndash lsquoIndia Office Market Overviewrsquo Jan 2017 Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai and Hyderabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Supertech Plans to invest ~USD115 mn to develop 25 mn square feet of retail and commercial space in Delhi-NCR region

bull Lodha Group Set-up a business vertical to focus on development of commercial assets (office retail and logistics) with a target of USD1 billion AUM by 2021

bull ldquoDemand for office space is expected to remain constant in 2017 hellip The expected take up from ITITeS companies may see reduced proportionhelliprdquo - Anshul Jain Country Head Cushman amp Wakefield

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 234

Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal Size

The ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad

9

21

57 60

39

51

173

912

16

21

32 34

84

22

2342 42

26 24 23

5

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

ITITES BFSI Manufacturing Other Services

16000 19000

54000

39000

20000

30000

25300

29000

50000 51000

24500

20000

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad

H1 2016 H1 2017

Source India real estate residential and office January - June 2017 Knight Frank

Sector-wise Transactions Split (H1 2017) Deal Size Analysis (Sq ft)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 235

Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costs

New Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list

Prime office space occupancy costs in US$ per sq ft per annum

Source June 2017 Global Prime Office Occupancy Costs CBRE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q12017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 236

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 237

Since 1Q 2017 residential segment has started displaying signs of recovery encouraging developers such as Lodha and Supertech to commit large investments

Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

A 2014 2015 2016 20171H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Supp

ly a

ndSa

les

Cap

ital V

alue

Source Liases Foras Real Estate Rating amp Research Knight Frank ndash lsquoIndia Real Estate Jul-Dec 2016rsquo Dow Jones ndash Factiva NRI Analysis

71100

123112149160

107131138123136135

1H20161H2015 2H2015 2H20161H2014 2H2014

SalesNew Launches(in lsquo000 units)

To compensate for the low residential demand developers have reduced new launcheshellip

hellip this has helped reduce the unsold inventory level and supported capital value growth in key markets except Delhi-NCR

1Q 2017 - Sales

bull Most key city markets have saw declining sales on annual and half-yearly basis

bull However on a QoQ all cities saw sales improvement except Bengaluru where sales declined further by ~8 on QoQ basis

1Q 2017 ndash Price

bull Capital values have continue improve by 3-5 in most key markets

bull However cities like Delhi-NCR Kolkata and Pune have witnessed marginal price correction of around 1-3

709 716 731 747 695 693

1185 1252 1282 1284 1298 1324

717 735 746 767 771 791

1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016

Delhi - NCR Price Mumbai Price Bengaluru Price

(Price in USD per square metre)

Represents data for six cities Delhi ndash NCR Mumbai Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata and Ahmedabad

Corporate Announcements

bull Lodha Group Plans to invest ~USD650 mn during 2017-18 to enhance deliveries of residential projects and launch 8-9 new projects

bull Supertech Shall invest ~USD380 mn to complete 15000 housing units in 2017-18 Also it plans to invest ~USD525-600 mn for launching affordable housing projects of 40000 units

bull Shapoorji Pallonji Plans to launch around 12 residential projects during Aprrsquo17 to Decrsquo18 Currently this is the biggest development plan in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 238

Residential Space ndash Supply Trends

Mumbai amp Bengaluru dominate the new residential apartment supply In 1Q17 most of the new launches have been in the economy segment (INR 2000-3000 per sqft) range across India

16 127

22

13 24

6

7

10

23

24

28

12

12

145

8

487

38 11

7

H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017

Perc

enta

ge s

har

e o

f new

lau

nches

Time (Yearly)

Delhi-NCR Mumbai Chennai Bengaluru

Kolkata Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune

Source Knight Frank

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

Price Category Wise Launches (INR Per square ft)

Less than 2000 2000 - 3000 3000 - 40004000 - 5000 5000 - 7500 7500 - 1000010000 - 15000 More than 15000

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

~106900 ~74000 ~67500

New Residential Apartment Supply Trends Composition of New Supply

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 239

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 240

Retail Space ndash Overall Outlook

The retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes

201 204 238

278 321

368 425

518 490

600 672

1300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Time (Years)

Source Indian Brand Equity Foundation July 2017

92 8776

8 1324

2015 2019E 2020E

Unorganized Organized

bull Currently India has over 15 million Mom and Pop stores (unorganized retail)

bull From FY09 - FY13 organised retail in India has witnessed a CAGR of 19-20

Retail Market Size (US$ Billion) Type of Retail Market in India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 241

Retail space demand has remained stagnant across major markets as a result of domestic consumption slump caused by demonetization but is expected to recover in this year

Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends

New Supplybull 2017 is likely to see the highest mall space

becoming operational second to 2011 bull High levels of activity are expected 2017

onwards after a prolonged slowdown from 2014 that lasted through 2016

Absorptionbull The domestic consumption story was

impacted by demonetization in the last two months of 2016

bull Business is expected to normalize from 2Q17

Vacancy Ratesbull Indiarsquos overall vacancy rate is expected to

rise on account of new future supplybull The good malls have done well

Rental Ratesbull Rental rates across major retail markets

have remained stable for last 1 year on account of sluggish business activity

65 69

138

4157

13

36

-03

77

106

4542 40

107

45 51

16

33 27

56

79

42

00

50

100

150

200

250

-20

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Com

plet

ions

Ab

sorp

tion

(Mill

ion

Sq F

t)

New Completions Net Absorption Vacancy

Supply Net Absorption and Vacancy of Retail Space in India

441 438 438 438 376

398 397 397

194 213 213 213

2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017

Delhi - NCR Mumbai Bengaluru

(Rental rate in INR per square metre per month)

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 242

Retail Space ndash Mall

Vacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018

Construction Status of Future Supply of Retail Malls (2017- 2019)

48

18

52

68

11

47

3

31

22

2017F 2018F 2019FProposed Excavation Upto Plinth

Less than 50 Structure Readuy 50-100 Structure Ready

Ready for fit-outs

bull In terms of supply 2017 appears to be a strong year with over 77million sq ft of net supply expected to come on stream

bull The good malls are witnessing moderate to good pre-commitmentlevels ranging between 51-75 whereas the average malls areseeing poor pre-commitments of 0-50

bull Key retail completions lined up for 2017 include the RMZ Mall inBengaluru Seawoods Grand Central in Mumbai Palladium Mall inChennai ICC Mall in Pune DLF Mall and Wave Hub Mall in NCRDelhi

bull Of the total retail supply expected in 2017 48 is in the ready forfit-outs stage while 52 is in the 50-100 structure ready stage

bull By end 2017 NCR Delhi will have a Grade A retail stock of 274million sq ft while Mumbai is expected to have a stock of 191million sq ft for Grade A retail space

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 243

India Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Real Estate Market Overview

3 Office Market

4 Residential Market

5 Retail Property Market

6 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 244

Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist Destination

The travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally

Source Ministry of Tourism India

Indiarsquos Position in the World By Industry Competitiveness 40th By Air transport

Infrastructure 32nd By Price competitiveness 10th

Source Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017

527 563 669 748

865 1045

1143 1290

1432 1614

13 14 14

18 19

18 20

23

23

25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f tou

rist a

rriv

als

(mill

ions

)

Time (Years)Domestic Foreign

Domestic and Foreign Tourist Arrivals Top cities in Foreign Tourist Arrivals by Air in July 2017

GKCNew Delhi

41

Mumbai21

Chennai9

Bengluru8

Kochi7

Others15

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 245

Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming Inventory

Although hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2015

Growth of Room Supply - India

249050

1122840

1464850

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2000-01 2014-15 2019-20

00

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Brand Inventory across Select Asia Pacific Cities

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 246

Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory Trends

Delhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities

Hotel Rooms Statistics across major cities in 2016

Source Content sourced from proprietary information of Jones Lang LaSalle India

Hotel Class Definition in India (as per Industry)

Star Rating 5 Star 5 Star 4-5 Star 3-4 Star 2 Star or less

Room size gt=38 gt=38 35-38 25-35 lt25

Restaurant gt=3 gt=3 1-2 1-2 Only 1

BarLounge gt=2 1-2 Only 1 Only 1 1 or none

Swimming Pool Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Gym Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Spa Yes Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Concierge Service

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

Nomandate

Branded Toiletries

Yes Yes No No No

TrademarkedBeds

Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

Interior Quality Yes Yes Yes Nomandate

No

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Num

ber o

f roo

ms

Existing Supply (Rooms) Proposed Supply (Rooms)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 247

Hospitality Space ndash Supply Trends

Average room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy

Average Room Rate (US$) across Major Cities

106

61

8879

107102

89

112

7478

94

118

63

950

590

830

730

96 96

81

109

72 75

87

113

61

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 248

Hospitality Space ndash Demand Trends

Occupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year

Occupancy Rate across Major Cities

615

539

581589

617 611

480

697

571

545

678

718

613

571

549

662

627

667 667

509

707

581

609

685

743

657

2014-15 2015-16

Source Hotels in India Trends amp Opportunities HVS 2016

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 249

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 250

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 251

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 real GDP (constant 2010 USD) accounted for 16 USD trillion showing zero percent Y-o-Y growth compared to -3 in 2015

For 2018 and 2019 GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 17 (World Bank)

Russian economy recession is slowing down with real GDP growth of 0 in 2016

GDP(constant 2010 USD) GDP per capita (constant 2010 USD)

Source World Bank

-10-8-6-4-20246810

00020406081012141618

USD

trilli

on

GDP (constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

-10-8-6-4-20246810

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

USD

GDP per capita(constant 2010 USD) Y-o-Y growth()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 252

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 population of Russia accounted for 1443 million people with 107 million living in urban areas Over the part 10 year share of urban population has grown by 06

Almost 74 of the population live in urban areas and this share is slowly growing

-05

-04

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

milli

on p

eopl

e

Population(million people) Y-o-Y growth

Population million people

Source World Bank

730

732

734

736

738

740

742

Urban population share

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 253

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2015 consumer price index recorded 129 amid RUB depreciation However due to RUB exchange rate stabilization inflation slowed down in 2016 to 54

After significant growth in 2015 inflation was stabilized in 2016 to a manageable level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

RU

RU

SD

RURUSD exchange rate

Source World Bank

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Rosstat

CPI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 254

Macro Fundamentals of Russia

In 2016 value of mortgage loans accounted increased to 14 RUB trillion (800 thousand loans) The government pursues to increase number of mortgage loans up to 1200 loans by 2020

The mortgage loan market enjoys a strong recovery after decline in 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

- 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(asof Nov)

Thou

sand

uni

ts

RU

B Bi

llion

Mortgage loans value(RUB billion)

Numbe of mortagge loans issued (thousand units)

116

118

12

122

124

126

128

13

132

134

136

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Central Bank of Russia

Mortgage rate Mortgage loans issued (volume and value)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 255

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 256

Residential Market

Russian government is looking to improve the living standards of its citizens and upgrade the quality of urban environment by several stimulation programs

The Moscow housing

renovation program

The Mortgage and rental housing

priority project

ldquoThe Moscow housing renovation programrdquo is aimed at resettlement and demolition of a dilapidated low-rise housing stock built in 1957-1968 and at the new construction in the liberated territory it was submitted on September 26 2017 by the mayor of Moscow Duration of 15-20 years Total financing of 400 RUB billion 6 ml people to be resettled Over 25 ml m2 of residential property to be resettled and demolished (5177 houses = ~10 of total

residential area of Moscow) Similar programs will be potentially extended to other regions of Russia

The main objective of the Mortgage and rental housing priority project is to improve the living conditions of Russian citizens by Ensuring high rates of housing commissioning (goal - commissioning of 88 ml m2 of residential

space in 2018 100 ml m2 of residential space in 2020) Demand stimulation (issuance of 1 ml mortgage loans in 2018 12 ml mortgage loans in 2020)

Basic approaches of achieving the goals of the housing conditions improvement are ensuring high rates of construction of high-quality comfortable and affordable housing by including

inefficiently used federal regional and municipal lands as well as financing the construction of infrastructure as part of integrated development projects

increasing the availability of mortgage loans and reduce financial risks by forming a liquid market for mortgage securities introducing electronic bonds and the worlds best practices for disclosing information

implementation of pilot projects of specialized rental housing by using collective investment mechanisms and developing proposals for the further development of the rental market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 257

Residential Market

Demand in primary housing market significantly increased while growth in secondary market remain modest

In 2016 the number of contracts in primary housing market (new houses) increased by 80 in comparison with 2015

Secondary housing market grew only by 86

Source Konti

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

thou

sand

con

tract

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

thou

sand

con

tract

s

Number of contracts in Moscow secondary housing market(~existing homes)

Number of contracts in Moscow primary housing market(~new homes)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 258

Residential Market

Supply of new houses in Moscow declined in 2016 due to low demand in the previous year

1971 2110

3050 31463342

3920

3385

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

sq

m

46543

33091

22825 23587

4255146352 46080

56171

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

units

Source Rosstat

Commissioned living space in Moscow Number of commissioned flats in Moscow

In 2016 constructed living space accounted for 3385 thousand sq m which is 14 lower as compared with 2015 Decline can be explained by the fact that in 2015 supply outweighed demand by far

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 259

Residential Market

In 4Q 2016 average price of new residential housing accounted for 155 thousand RUBsq m which is approx 15 lower as compared with the same period of the previous year

Average price in secondary housing market declined by 4 (1809 thousand RUB sq m)

Average price growth in both primary and secondary Moscow residential market remain negative

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

thou

sand

RU

Bsq

m

Source Rosstat

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

thou

sand

RU

B sq

m

Average price of primary housing in Moscow Average price of secondary housing in Moscow

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 260

Residential Market

Supply of new housing in 2016 and average price in Moscow very depending on administrative district

District Average price(RUB per sq m) as of Dec 2016

Supply share as of Dec 2016

1 Central Administrative District 250900 12

2 Northern Administrative District 166800 13

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 168100 12

4 Eastern Administrative District 200300 8

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 145400 9

6 Southern Administrative District 179000 11

7 South-Western Administrative District 173400 8

8 Western Administrative District 212900 12

9 North-Western Administrative District 238900 18

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 88100 1

Source Blackwood

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 261

Residential Market

Backup information population of Moscow

District Population people

1 Central Administrative District 768280

2 Northern Administrative District 1158528

3 North-Eastern Administrative District 1413739

4 Eastern Administrative District 1505801

5 South-Eastern Administrative District 1380668

6 Southern Administrative District 1774351

7 South-Western Administrative District 1426227

8 Western Administrative District 1362701

9 North-Western Administrative District 988423

10 ZelenogradAdministrative District 237897

1118711282

11504

1177711857

1198012108

1219812330

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Population by district as of 2016Population of Moscow thousand people

Source Rosstat Source City Population

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 262

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 263

Office Market

In 2016 construction of offices fell to 313 thousand sq m which is the lowest figure over the past decade Total stock of offices accounted for 17 thousand sq m

Construction of offices has shown negative growth since 2014

Source Colliers

Total stock in Moscow

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total area of office completions in Moscow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 264

Office Market

Demand has showed negative growth in Moscow office market since 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

thou

sand

sq

m

A B

Total take-up in Moscow thousand sq m

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Source Colliers

Vacancy rate

The annual transaction volume in Moscow accounted for 850000 sq m (115 decline ) Vacancy rate for A class offices fell to by nearly 7 while B class vacancy rate remained the same

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 265

Office Market

Backup information take-up structure in Moscow

24

16

109

9

5

5

4

332

1

9

Manufacturing

Professional services

Public

Retail

IT amp Telecoms

EnergyIndustrial

Pharmacy and life science

Banking Insurance ampInvestmentConstruction anddevelopmentAutomative

Media

Vehicles Transport ampLogisticsOther

Take-up structure by sector in 2015Take-up structure by type of deal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

rent sale

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 266

Office Market

Average rental rate in USD significantly declined in 2015 due to local currency devaluation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A B

Average rental rate USD sq m per annum in Moscow

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 267

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 268

Retail Market

Backup information total stock in Moscow and Russia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Total stock in Moscow thousand sq m Total stock in Russia thousand sq m

Source Colliers

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 269

Retail Market

In 2016 construction of shopping centers in Moscow fell by nearly 32 to 424 thousand sq m The decline in figures for the whole country accounted for 14

Construction of shopping center has been declining since 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Source Colliers

Completion (GLA) in Moscow thousand sq m Completion (GLA) in Russia thousand sq m

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 270

Retail Market

Despite current economic condition in 2015 number of brands entered the Moscow market still far outweighs number of brands that left

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

International brands left Moscow market

International brands enterd Moscow market

Number of international brands entered Moscow market units

Source Colliers

53

22

8

17

Fashion Children goods Catering Other

Structure of brands entering Moscow in 2015

In 2015 36 new international brands entered the Moscow market while 11 announced to leave

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 271

Russia Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

1 Macro Fundamentals

2 Residential Market

3 Office Market

4 Retail Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 272

Hotel Market

Hotel supply has been staying at the nearly the same level since 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

hote

ls u

nits

room

s u

nits

Number of rooms Number of hotels

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

num

ber o

f hot

els

room

sun

its

Number of rooms Number of hotels

Source Rosstat

Supply of hotels in Moscow Supply of hotels in Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 273

Hotel Market

Number of overnight stays in hotels also has not faced significant changes

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source Rosstat

Number of stays in hotels Moscow Number of stays in hotels Russia

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 274

Hotel Market

As of 2016 year nearly 15000 rooms are managed by international hotel operators in the Moscow market The reawakening of Russian and international hotel chains in 2016-2017 is based heavily on the forthcoming FIFA

World

The Moscow hotel market is dominated by optimistic moods - despite tough economic conditions hoteliers noted that demand has grown since 2015

Indicator 2015 2016

Total supply of hotels managed by international operators

52 58

Number of rooms managed by international hotel operators

13 723 14 942

Average price of a sold room (ADR) Rublesday 7 245 7 815

Yield per room (RevPAR) Rublesday 4 890 5 650

Occupancy rate 675 723

Tourist flow million people 171 175

22

18

15

14

7

6

6

48

AccorHotels

InterContinental HotelsGroupCarlson Rezidor HotelGroupMarriott International

Best Western

Starwood Hotels andResorts WorldwideHilton Worldwide

AZIMUT Hotels

Others

Source Colliers

Key indicators of Moscow hotel marketMajor international hotel operators in 2016 of numbers of rooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 275

Russia

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Office and retail markets in Moscow have struggled due to prolonged stagnation

The market has been cooling down after market business uptrend peak has passed

Economic stagnation has affected residential and retail but office is stable

Development projects will further be focus on Taipei Metropolitan area And hotel is still showing strong performance

Oversupply in each market has surfaced due to global economic slowdown

Consumptions by the huge middle class has driven favorable economic conditions in various real estate domains

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

Thailand Residential and office in Bangkok and its surrounding areas are stable under economic recovery

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 276

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 277

1 Macro Economy

The United States of America can be divided into 4 regions

The 4 regions of the USA include Northeast Midwest South and West

Source) US Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

Northeast South Midwest West

New York Boston Dallas Houston Chicago DetroitLos Angeles

SeattleSan

Francisco

Population ndash Ppl(2016)

8537673 673184 1317929 2303482 2704958 672795 3976322 704352 870887

GDP ndash $M USD(2016)

1657457 422660 511606 478618 651222 252691 1001677 330409 470529

Northeast Midwest

WestSouth

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 278

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

Cal

iforn

iaW

ashi

ngto

nA

rizo

naC

olo

rado

Ore

gon

Uta

hN

evad

aN

ew M

exic

oId

aho

Haw

aii

Mont

ana

Ala

ska

Wyo

min

gTex

asFlo

rida

Georg

iaN

ort

h C

arolin

aV

irgi

nia

Ten

ness

eeM

aryl

and

South

Car

olin

aA

laba

ma

Loui

sian

aKen

tuck

yO

klah

om

aM

issi

ssip

piA

rkan

sas

Wes

t V

irgi

nia

Del

awar

eD

istr

ict

of C

olu

mbi

aN

ew Y

ork

Pen

nsyl

vania

New

Jer

sey

Mas

sachu

sett

sC

onn

ect

icut

New

Ham

pshi

reM

aine

Rho

de Isl

and

Ver

mont

Illin

ois

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Mis

sour

iW

isco

nsin

Min

neso

taIo

wa

Kan

sas

Neb

rask

aSouth

Dak

ota

1 Macro Economy

The population of California is 392 million Texas 278 million Florida 206 million New York 197 million and Illinois 128 million

Regarding the state-wise population California is the most populous state followed by Texas Florida New York and Illinois

Source) USCensus Bureau

State-wise population (2016)

NortheastSouthWest Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 279

1 Macro Economy

Among the top 20 cities in terms of population 6 belong to Texas The 5 cities that had their annual growth rate more than 2 after 2010 are as follows

Austin Texas 254 Seattle Washington 241 Denver Colorado 234 Fort Worth Texas 222 Charlotte North Carolina 221

In the metropolitan cities the population of New York and Los Angeles exceeds 30 millionAmong the top 20 cities in terms of population the annual growth rate of 5 cities exceeds 2 after 2010

Population (Top 20 Cities 2016)

Source) US Census Bureau

07 08

00

1518

04

19

1216

12

25

11 13 14

07

22 2224 23

08

00051015202530

-

3000000

6000000

9000000

Population (left) CAGR from 2010 to 2016 (right)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 280

1 Macro Economy

The real GDP was increased by 88 from $156 trillion in Q3 2013 to $170 trillion in Q2 2017 The real estate business grew by 27 in the most recent quarter and became the main driver of economic growth

The US real GDP has been continuously growing for the past 4 years (except Q1 2014)

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

($ billion)

Trends of real GDP Trends of GDP growth rate

Billions of chained (2009) dollars ()

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 281

Regarding the state-wise real GDP California has the highest real GDP of $25 trillion followed by Texas and New York with approximately $15 trillion However the other states have their real GDP below $1 trillion

1 Macro Economy

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

State-wise real GDP (Top 20 states Q1 2017)

($ billion)

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Millions of chained (2009) dollars

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 282

1 Macro Economy

Especially the growth rate of southern states including Texas and New Mexico was relatively high

The real GDP of 43 states and the District of Columbia grew between 2015 and 2016

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP growth by states (2015 -2016)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 283

1 Macro Economy

The rate of unemployment is suddenly increased after collapsing the Dotcom bubble and the Lehman shock After October 2009 it turns to decrease

In August 2017 the unemployment rate is 44 and the number of unemployed is 71 million

The unemployment rate recorded in June 2017 was 43 which was the lowest in the past 20 years

Source) US Bureau of Labor Statistics

43

63

100

44

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Lehman shock

Dotcom bubble

collapse

Unemployment rate (1997 to 2007)

()

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 284

Through blockchain technology all involved parties can have a copy of the original data record allowing near-real time data record access and updates safe from tampering

The US commercial real estate market has a particular interest in the following benefits Listing Management ndash To effectively manage real estate listing data of any property in the world Secure Data Exchange ndash To securely manage data of tenant owners etc Efficient Contracting ndash To speed up exchange of data contract etc

The US market has been slowly exploring blockchain technology for commercial real estate applications

Users Data Record

Blockchain in Real Estate Overview

Blockchain

Listing Management

Secure Data Exchange

Efficient Contracting

Blockchain

Blockchain

Blockchain

1 Macro Economy

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 285

Through smart contracts blockchain technology can revolutionize how commercial real estate market parties contract

1 Macro Economy

Smart Contract Timeline Overview

Smart contracts are applications to securely execute contractual terms between involved parties through blockchain technology

Tenant Landlord Tenant Tenant Landlord

bull Tenant and landlord sign smart contract to initiate lease agreement

bull Agreement includes rental value payment terms and party details

bull Smart contract will start to enforce payment terms thus initiating lease payments from tenant to landlord

bull Upon termination of lease contract contract returns the security deposit payment to the tenant after adjustments for damages

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Smart Contract

Landlord

Pre-Lease During Lease Post-Lease

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 286

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 287

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The most recent commercial real estate price is far larger than the previous highest of 2007Although the price continued to increase after the Lehman shock it is at peak in 2016 second half

1269

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Trends of Commercial real estate price (Commercial Property Price Index)

Source) Green Street AdvisorsMainly the prime commercial properties (real estate) were targeted

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 288

2 Real Estate Investment Market

The total amount of transactions was increased in all sectors between 2014 and 2015In 2016 only the number of apartments was increased the other real estates were declined

116

130

89

51

36

153 151

90 78

50

159

143

76

59

36

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Apartments Office Retail Industrial Hotel

2014 2015 2016

($ bil)

Trends in Transaction amount of commercial real estates (including transactions equal to or more than 25 billion)

Source) Colliers International

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 289

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

00

10

20

30

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

米国10年国債利回り(左軸) 米国REIT価格指数(右軸)

2 Real Estate Investment Market

If the future interest rates will rise the REIT price would fall in the short term Then it will rise in the medium and long term

Trends in Cap rate of main sectors

Source) NAREIT Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

REIT price index has been calculated based on FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Total Index

20134-20138Yield on the government bonds +11 pointsREIT -13

20151-20156Yield on the government bonds +07 pointsREIT -11

20167-201611Yield on the government bonds +09 pointsREIT -12

Yield on 10-year government bonds (Left axis)

USArsquos REIT price index (Right axis)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 290

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 291

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Regarding the residential market of the USA houses which were built for sale purpose accounted for 50 custom houses accounted for 15 and rental apartments that have increasingly become common in recent years accounted for 30

Trends of Residential market structure in Japan

1 Existing housing stock data pertains to FY 20132 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor and field supervisor There are three types of construction methods 1) The landlord

takes the responsibility for partial construction and asks a local contractor for the remaining construction 2) The landlord gives the task of entire construction to a local contractor 3) The landlord undertakes the entire construction work(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the landlord When the landlords construct on their own partial work of construction is given to a local contractor)

3 Houses built by the landlords for residing purpose as a benefactor The local contractor is hired as the field supervisor and landlord does not construct at all These also include houses used for rental purpose (example temporary house of a clergyman)(The basic responsibility of completing the construction lies with the local contractor)

Unit 10000 houses Japan Unit 10000 houses US

Number of new housing starts

967 (100) Starts by Purpose 1174 (100)

Owner-occupied houses (custom houses)

292 (30)Owner built2 49 (4)

Contractor built3 116 (10)

Sale in lots 251 (26) Built for sale 607 (52)

Detached houses 134 (14)Single-familyUnits

579 (49)

Mansions 117 (12)Building with 2units or more

28 (2)

Houses on lease (including those received as allowance)

424 (44) Built for rent 402 (34)

Existing housing stock 169 (17) Used house sales 549 (468)

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 292

In 2016 rental housing constructions were less than the preceding year

The number of detached housing construction sharply declined after reaching its peak in 2005However after hitting its lowest level in 2011 the situation became improved In parallel rental housing construction has also been growing

Trends of New housing constructions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 unit Built for sale

1 unit Contractor-built

1 unit Owner-built

2+ units For sale

2+ unitsFor rent

(Thousands)

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 293

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Less than 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

1995 2005 2015

For 10 years after 2005 the rate of house-owners who are the 25-44 year-old people had significantly declined With the decrease of houses owned by the young generation the demand for rental houses rapidly increased

Age-wise housing acquisition rate

-5 points

-10points

-10 points

3 Residential market - (1) Overview

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 294

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

After the Lehman shock the southern and western regions started recovering and restored to their status as in the 1990s However the midwest and north-eastern regions remained the same

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

Trends of new housing constructions (Detached houses)

(Thousands)

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 295

-

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Texa

sFl

orid

aN

orth

Car

olin

aG

eorg

iaSo

uth

Car

olin

aTe

nnes

see

Virg

inia

Loui

sian

aAl

abam

aM

aryl

and

Okl

ahom

aKe

ntuc

kyAr

kans

asM

issi

ssip

piD

elaw

are

Wes

t Virg

inia

Dis

trict

of C

olum

bia

Cal

iforn

iaAr

izon

aW

ashi

ngto

nC

olor

ado

Uta

hN

evad

aO

rego

nId

aho

New

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Haw

aii

Wyo

min

gAl

aska

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

Min

neso

taM

isso

uri

Wis

cons

inIll

inoi

sIo

wa

Kans

asN

ebra

ska

Sout

h D

akot

aN

orth

Dak

ota

Penn

sylv

ania

New

Yor

kN

ew J

erse

yM

assa

chus

etts

Mai

neN

ew H

amps

hire

Con

nect

icut

Verm

ont

Rho

de Is

land

Texas and Florida in the southern region stood out with the maximum number of approvals for the construction of detached houses In looking at the other regions California had more than 50000 approvals but the rest had 30000 or less

NortheastSouth West Midwest

State-wise number of Approvals for new housing constructions (Detached houses 2016)

(Number of approvals)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Source US Census Bureau

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 296

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

San Jose

San Francisco

Honolulu

San Diego

Los Angeles

Houston

Dallas

Atlanta

Phoenix

Washington

Seattle

New YorkDenver

BostonPortland

In the metropolitan areas in south such as Texas have a great number of new housing constructions while cities with high residential prices are concentrated in California

Main southern cities

Main cities in California

Other mature cities in the entire USA

City-wise Residential prices and Approvals for new housing constructions (2016)

Prices of detached houses (in thousand dollars)

Num

ber o

f appro

vals for d

etac

hed h

ouse

starts

Source US Census Bureau National Association of Realtors

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 297

The number of rental housing constructions was suddenly increasing after 2009 but the number constructions was decreasing after 2015 except for the western region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

南部

西部

中西部

北東部

(Thousands)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 298Source) US Census Bureau

The calculation has been done based on the running average of data for all the four quarters

Trends in percentage of owner-occupied houses Trends in Percentage of vacant houses

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

The rate of owned houses and vacant houses continued to decrease together but this fall came to the end in 2016

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 20170 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 299

There is no any significant change in the trends of most recent rents

Trends of region-wise rent (Median)

($)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

西部

北東部

南部

中西部

3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing

West

Northeast

South

Midwest

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 300

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

Source US Census Bureau

Number of new housing starts

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The Seattle metropolitan area includes 3 counties ndash Snohomish King and Pierce

After the Lehman shock many large-scale apartments were constructed in the Seattle metropolitan area (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA)

(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 301

The average price of detached houses is about $500000 With land prices the cost of construction is also sharply risen

Year Land HomeValue

Structure Cost Land Value

2000 $278695 $112257 $166438 5972001 $292826 $119354 $173471 5922002 $303519 $121947 $181572 5982003 $323773 $125821 $197952 6112004 $359056 $141585 $217471 6062005 $424912 $152219 $272692 6422006 $479951 $163874 $316077 6592007 $488499 $172756 $315744 6462008 $431855 $186623 $245231 5682009 $387317 $191347 $195970 5062010 $368625 $194053 $174572 4742011 $346949 $204023 $142926 4122012 $372227 $207086 $165142 4442013 $419730 $215593 $204137 4862014 $446107 $233255 $212852 4772015 $488054 $236426 $251628 516

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Q4 data

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 302

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

Regarding the Seattlersquos local residential market more than 50 of the houses are apartments In the suburbs the number of detached houses and apartments are almost same

Source US Census Bureau

Figure showing the Seattle city and the surrounding areasNumber of approvals for housing starts in Areas surrounding

the Seattle city (King County) (2016)

Other areas refer to the total number of cities in the King Country

SeattleBellevue

Redmond

Other area

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Other areas

Redmond

Bellevue

Seattle

1-unit 2-units and up (House)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 303

3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle

The vacancy rate of rental houses is rapidly decreasing which is less than 3 in the all metropolitan areas In the post-2014 the standard rent of Seattle was significantly higher than the average rent of metropolitan areas

Trends of Vacancy rate Trends of Rent (Median)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

$400

$600

$800

$1000

$1200

$1400

$1600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

0~

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seattle city Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Metro Area

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 304

Trends in number of new housing constructions (Rental housing)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The number of new housing constructions (including both detached houses and apartments) in the Dallas metropolitan area (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA) showed recovery with more than 25000 constructions

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1-unit 2-units and up

0

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 305

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

The average price of detached houses is $250000The cost of construction is dramatically rising accounting for 70 of the home value

Trends of Land prices and Cost of construction

Source Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Year Land ShareHome Value Structure

Cost Land Value

2000 $173678 $92517 $81161 467

2001 $182559 $98406 $84154 461

2002 $186525 $100648 $85877 460

2003 $187431 $104288 $83143 444

2004 $190797 $116052 $74745 392

2005 $199596 $124130 $75466 378

2006 $202951 $132730 $70221 346

2007 $200595 $139192 $61403 306

2008 $193454 $150854 $42599 220

2009 $196089 $150857 $45232 231

2010 $189138 $153876 $35263 186

2011 $187611 $161438 $26173 140

2012 $198238 $163952 $34286 173

2013 $218014 $169417 $48597 223

2014 $234604 $182252 $52352 223

2015 $256583 $236426 $72860 284

Q4 data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Structure Cost Land Value Land Share

(Thousands)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 306

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the cities such as Dallas Fort Worth Frisco and McKinney a large number of detached houses and apartments are constructed In particular the surrounding areas of Dallas have mainly apartments whereas the northern region mainly has detached houses

Main cities in the suburbs of Dallas Number of approvals for housing starts in main cities (2016)

Source US Census Bureau American Fact Finder

Detached houses

+ Apartments

FortWorth

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Celina

Prosper

Little Elm

Irving

Farmers Branch

Carrollton

Garland

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Farmers Branch

Garland

Carrollton

Irving

Prosper town

Celina

Little Elm

Dallas

Frisco

McKinney

Fort Worth

1-unit 2-units and up

Mainly detached houses

Mainly apartments

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 307

3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas

In the northern part of Dallas there are successive expansions and relocations of offices of large companies The increase in employment depends on the increase in population

Large-scale offices recently relocated to areas surrounding the Fresco city

Source Plano Economic Development

Company name ServiceYear of

completionNumber of employees

Capital One Finance Headquarter 2017 5500

JP Morgan Chase amp CoUnder

construction6000

NTT DataNorth America

HQ2017 2250

West Plano

submarket

Frisco

Location of each city

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 308

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 309

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

4 Office market

Since the 2008 global financial crisis US employment has been recovering quickly

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

US unemployment rate is lower than it had been a decade ago before the financial crisis consequently leading to an increase in those in the US workforce

US Unemployment Rate US Employees

Rate ()

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jun2007

Jun2008

Jun2009

Jun2010

Jun2011

Jun2012

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016

Jun2017

Employees(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 310

4 Office market

The US has also witnessed a rise in the number of new established companies thus presenting new opportunities for office real estate market

Source) Bureau of Labor Statistics

Each year the number of established companies less than 1 year old or newly established companies has been rising since the financial crisis

Corporate Establishments Less than 1 Year Old

400

500

600

700

800

No of Established Co(Thousands)

0

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 311

Among New York Houston Chicago and San Francisco Houston is the only city headed downwards in GDP

Source) Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimated

4 Office market

Certain cities in the US have shown comparably noticeable traits of market opportunities

New York

Houston

Chicago

San Francisco

GDP ndash New York Houston Chicago San Francisco

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP($B USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 312

USA Moderate level of economic recovery in the US has been the driving force behind the solid performance in residential

1 Macro Economy

2 Real Estate Investment Market

3 Residential Market

4 Office Market

5 Hotel Market

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 313

5 Hotel market

With the increasing number of trips the US hotel industry will soon face the need for more lodging space

Source) US Travel Association

The number of people traveling is increasing eventually requiring more accommodation spaces The number of domestic travels within the US is far higher than the number of international travels to the US

Travels within US (Domestic) Travels to US (International)

170017501800185019001950200020502100215022002250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trips (Millions)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 314

By class segmentations the higher-end hotels have been constructing more hotel spaces to respond to the rising demands

US hotel classes are segmented by primarily according to average room rates In a descending order the segmentation follows Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale

Economy Unaffiliated hotels are hotels not affiliated with a member organization thus varying widely in size quality and cost

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Feb 2017) Under Construction (Feb 2017)

Luxury

Upper Upscale

Upscale

Midscale

Unaffiliated

Economy

Upper Midscale

236

1167

1383

1795

937

1524

2958

437

1412

31933254

432121

1152

Pric

e

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 315

By cities New York has been constructing double triple the amount of hotels compared to other metropolitan areas

Although Las Vegas leads in the total number of existing hotels New York has been constructing more hotel spaces

5 Hotel market

Source) Hotel News Now STR Global

Existing Supply (Mar 2017) Under Construction (Mar 2017)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Las Vegas NV New York NY Chicago IL WashingtonDC

Los AngelesCA

HotelRooms

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 316

5 Hotel market

Even by some of the more well-known tourist destination cities the RevPAR is predicted to continue to increase

Source) HVS Global Hospitality Services

Like the nationwide trend individual cities have also experienced slow growth in terms of RevPAR since the 2008 global financial crisis

New York is notably much higher in terms of RevPAR in comparison to other metropolitan cities

US Hotels ndash RevPAR by City

New York NY

Los Angeles CA

Washington DC

Las Vegas NV

Chicago IL

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rev ($ USD)

Estimated

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved 317

5 Hotel market

While Airbnb does pose as an lodging alternative to hotels the performance of one market does not impact the other

Source) Boston University

Boston University conducted research on the relationship between Airbnb and hotels in Boston Though Airbnb experienced increases in occupancy growth and RevPAR the gains did not affect the Boston hotelsrsquo

performance

Hotels

Airbnb

Boston ndash Occupancy amp RevPAR (2015-2016)

Occupancy Rate ()

0

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90

100

Janu

ary

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uary

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embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

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chA

pril

May

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July

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ust

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tem

ber

2015 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

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chA

pril

May

June

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ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

2015 2016

Rev ($ USD)

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

中国

Yinghua BAI PhDNRI Shanghai Division Manager

Expertise urban planning regional development and planning of real estate business strategy

Wen WANGNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise regional development industrial strategy and planning of real estate business strategy

Siwei LIUNRI Shanghai Sr Consultant

Expertise real estate business strategy China marketingbusiness strategy of Japanese companies

Fang QINRI Shanghai Asst Consultant

Expertise regional development planning of real estate business strategy

韓国

JaRyong CHOINRI Seoul Sr Exec Director

Expertise real estate and retail business strategy urban and regional development investment planning

KangTae PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

SungWoo PARKNRI Seoul Consultant

Expertise real estate retail service distribution strategy planning operationexecution support

台湾

Michihiro KONAGAINRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise infrastructure development and business strategy planning in infrastructure market

Chi han CHIANGNRI Taiwan Sr Consultant

Expertise policy and development planning PPP advisory in land development domain

Jen-hua LiuNRI Taiwan Asst Consultant

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

シンガポール

Toshiro TAKEKOSHINRI Singapore Department Head

Expertise infrastructure (real estate energy) business management and business strategies cross border MampA

Yen-Fen TEOHNRI Singapore Sr Consultant

Sana TAMURANRI Singapore Consultant

Ceputra SALIMNRI Singapore Assoc Consultant

タイ

Yuji KatoNRI Thailand Gr Manager

Expertise infrastructure business (real estate energy) finance

Panitha TeerasorakaiNRI Thailand Consultant

Orachorn SupunsaleekhulNRI Thailand Business Analyst

インド

Arpit MATHURNRI India Sr Consultant

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy and alliances real estate development support etc

Prashant AGGARWALNRI India Consultant

Expertise MampA transaction advisory business strategy financial modelling and business planning etc

Junmyong RANRI India Group Manager

Expertise Infrastructure-related business strategy ASEAN business strategy investment advisory etc

SungYun (Sonny) KIMNRI India President

Expertise Real estate investment market incl behavioral investment securitization financial crisis etc

Hikojiro ISOZAKINRI Global Knowledge Centre Head

Expertise Automotive and Infrastructure sector advisory investment strategy etc

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

ロシア

Andrei RODIONOVMoscow Br Div Director

Expertise business strategy global marketing MampA

Alexander KHARKOVMoscow Br Consultant

Expertise marketing in Russia business strategy economic regulation

アメリカ

Keitaro HiroseNRI Consultant

Expertise Business Strategy in Real estate and Infrastructure industry

Joshua ChoiNRI America Sr Research Analyst

Expertise Business Strategy IoT Emerging Technology

Makiko TanakaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy Fintech AI

Sherry KitajimaNRI America Research Analyst Expertise Business Strategy AI

Authors

LeadAuthor

LeadAuthor

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute Ltd All rights reserved

Contact

Inquiry about this report generally or our solutions for real estate industry[Mail] real-estate-reportnricojp [Language] Japanese English

Inquiry about contents of each sectionChina [Mail] real-estate-report-CHNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Original) EnglishKorea [Mail] real-estate-report-KORnricojp [Language] Japanese Korean EnglishTaiwan [Mail] real-estate-report-TWNnricojp [Language] Japanese Chinese (Simplified) EnglishSingapore [Mail] real-estate-report-SGPnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishThailand [Mail] real-estate-report-THAnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishIndia [Mail] real-estate-report-INDnricojp [Language] Japanese EnglishRussia [Mail] real-estate-report-RUSnricojp [Language] English RussianUSA [Mail] real-estate-report-USAnricojp [Language] Japanese English

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  • The Global Real Estate Market 2017
  • スライド番号 2
  • スライド番号 3
  • スライド番号 4
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Economic Growth
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Population
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Demographic changes
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Housing conditions
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption Trend
  • Chinarsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • Chinalsquos Macroeconomic Environment Consumption trend
  • スライド番号 18
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Chinas Real Estate Investment
  • Land Market in China
  • スライド番号 25
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Chinarsquos Residential Market
  • Residential Market in China
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • Chinas Residential Market
  • House supply policy of China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Government Housing Policy in China
  • Prospects of Chinas residential market
  • スライド番号 36
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Commercial Facility
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • Chinarsquos Commercial Real Estate Market Office
  • スライド番号 45
  • Prospects of commercial real estate market in China
  • スライド番号 47
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • Movements of Chinese Real Estate Developers
  • スライド番号 51
  • スライド番号 52
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • スライド番号 60
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • Office market trends
  • スライド番号 68
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • Residential market trends
  • スライド番号 76
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • Commercial facilities market trends
  • スライド番号 82
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • Investment market trends
  • スライド番号 89
  • スライド番号 90
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • 1Macro Fundamentals of Taiwan
  • スライド番号 98
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • 2Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Office Market)
  • スライド番号 104
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • 3Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Residential Market)
  • スライド番号 113
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • 4Taiwanrsquos real estate situation (Hotel Market)
  • スライド番号 117
  • (Reference)
  • スライド番号 119
  • Population Trend
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals - GDP
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Inflation Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Exchange Rate
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Public Finance
  • Macro Fundamentals ndash Political Risks
  • スライド番号 128
  • Office market- Geographic Area
  • Office market- Stock and Vacancy
  • Office market- Price and Rental Index
  • Office market- Future Supply
  • Office market- Cap rate
  • スライド番号 134
  • Residential market ndashNumber of households by type of dwelling
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market ndashDemand Trend Analysis
  • Residential market-Stock and Vacancy Rate
  • Residential market- Sales and Rental Index of Non-Landed property
  • Residential market ndashFuture Supply
  • Residential market-Cap Rate
  • スライド番号 142
  • Retail market-Availability of Floor Space and Vacancy Rate
  • Retail market- Price and Rental Index of Retail Space
  • Retail market- e-Commerce in Singapore
  • Retail market-CAP Rate
  • Retail market- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 148
  • Logistics Space- Geographic Area
  • Logistics Space- Demand Trend
  • Logistics Space- Stock and Vacancy
  • Logistics Space- Rental Index
  • Logistics Space- Future Supply
  • スライド番号 154
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (1)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (2)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (3)
  • Hotel Market ndash Visitor Arrivals (4)
  • Hotel Market ndash Demand amp Supply
  • Hotel Market ndash Rates amp Revenue
  • Hotel Market ndash Supply Pipeline
  • スライド番号 162
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • REIT Market
  • スライド番号 167
  • スライド番号 168
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • Macro Fundamentals of Thailand
  • スライド番号 181
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • Office market
  • スライド番号 187
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Prime condominium
  • Residential Market ndash Joint venture projects between Japanese and Thai companies
  • スライド番号 199
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • Hotel market trend
  • スライド番号 204
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • Logistics Property Market
  • スライド番号 210
  • スライド番号 211
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Population GrowthIndia is a growing market not only due to rising population but also owing to the fact that the majority of this population is young and of working age thus driving consumption
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Rapid UrbanizationIndia is witnessing rapid urbanization that has led to the development of several urban centers that are significant drivers of middle class demand in the country 46 cities have more than 1 million population and growing
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash State of EconomyAlthough the Indian economy has grown the contribution of the construction sector to GDP has consistently remained low and declined in the last few years
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos per capita GDP and household savings are increasing indicating an improvement in the economic condition of society and thus an increase in demand for better infrastructure
  • Macro-Economic Factor ndash Income levelsIndiarsquos middle class population is almost half of its total population and among the highest consuming middle class groups in the world
  • スライド番号 217
  • Real Estate Market Overviewndash Contribution and GrowthThe construction sector contributed 8 to Indiarsquos GDP in 2014-15 The market has witnessed steady growth in the past which is likely to continue in the future owing to demographic pressure
  • Real estate Market Overviewndash Major Players PerformanceThe real estate sector in India is very fragmented with a large number of regional developers dominating key urban centers across multiple asset classes
  • Financing Developments ndash Project Financing OptionsPrivate lending NBFC lending and PE funds continue to be the primary sources of real estate financing Recently to improve developer sentiment REITs and InvITs have been allowed
  • Financing Developments Trends in REITsREITs are growing in popularity due to ease in regulation and increasing adoption by industry
  • Financing Developments Trends in Domestic InvestmentsDomestic transactions have declined In 2017 domestic investors have continued to focus on residential projects
  • Financing Developments Trends in Foreign InvestmentsForeign Investments have declined too in 2017 Major foreign investors such as GIC Blackstone CPPIB and Ascendas have focused on commercial assets specially logistics
  • Financing Developments Debt position of leading developersDebt burden of most large real estate players has been increasing due to over-aggressiveness in launching several projects simultaneously Four of the 10 largest debt holders are at the risk of default
  • スライド番号 225
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesGlobal PE heavyweights are entering into JVs to focus on opportunistic investments in Indian stressed assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesMajor global investors have announced their plans to expand their India portfolio across real estate assets
  • Financing Developments Global Investors Seek OpportunitiesRecently GIC Singapore announced intention to buy 40 stake in DLFrsquos rental business arm for estimated US$18 billion
  • スライド番号 229
  • Regulatory Developments ndash FDI Policy ConditionsFDI in the construction development sector has been on a decline over the past few years however recent changes in FDI guidelines will improve overall investments in the sector
  • スライド番号 231
  • Regulatory Developments ndash DemonetizationDemonetization caused a short-term stock market correction however true impact on the industry may become visible only by end of 2017
  • スライド番号 233
  • Office Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Office Space ndash Transaction Split amp Deal SizeThe ITITES sector has taken a large chunk of space in Bengaluru Pune and Hyderabad in H1 2017 Also deal size across cities has increased from H1 2016 to H1 2017 except for Bengaluru and Hyderabad
  • Office Space ndash Prime office space occupancy costsNew Delhi (Connaught Place-CBD) and Mumbai (Bandra Kurla Complex) are two prime areas that are featured in the Global 50 Most Expensive Prime Office Occupancy Cost list
  • スライド番号 237
  • Residential Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Residential Space ndash Supply Trends
  • スライド番号 240
  • Retail Space ndash Overall OutlookThe retail market is expected to more than double in size and become more organized by 2020 on account of rapid urbanization and rising disposable incomes
  • Retail Space ndash Supply amp Demand Trends
  • Retail Space ndash MallVacancy rates have increased in malls except for Pune Delhi-NCR will be the most active market as it will account for almost half of the total mall supply area coming up by 2018
  • スライド番号 244
  • Hospitality Space ndash Tourist Arrivals amp Major Tourist DestinationThe travel and tourism industry is growing steadily but requires high quality infrastructure support to be competitive globally
  • Hospitality Space ndash Present and Upcoming InventoryAlthough hospitality space inventory has grown by over 400 in the last 15 years the amount of branded inventory in India is quite low in comparison to other Asia Pacific Cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply amp Inventory TrendsDelhi Mumbai and Bengaluru lead in both existing as well as upcoming hospitality space across major Indian cities All cities portray a healthy supply of new hotel rooms indicating stable economic condition of cities
  • Hospitality Space ndash Supply TrendsAverage room rates across major cities have slightly declined or remained the same in the past year due to increased supply and the quest for maintaining occupancy
  • Hospitality Space ndash Demand TrendsOccupancy rates have increased across all major cities with the exception of Agra indicating that the demand has stayed robust over the past year
  • スライド番号 250
  • スライド番号 251
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • Macro Fundamentals of Russia
  • スライド番号 256
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • Residential Market
  • スライド番号 263
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • Office Market
  • スライド番号 268
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • Retail Market
  • スライド番号 272
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • Hotel Market
  • スライド番号 276
  • スライド番号 277
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • 1 Macro Economy
  • スライド番号 287
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • 2 Real Estate Investment Market
  • スライド番号 291
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (1) Overview
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (2) Detached housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (3) Rental housing
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (4) Residential market of Seattle
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • 3 Residential market - (5) Residential market of Dallas
  • スライド番号 309
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • 4 Office market
  • スライド番号 313
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • 5 Hotel market
  • スライド番号 319
  • スライド番号 320
  • スライド番号 321
  • スライド番号 322
  • スライド番号 323
Retail Industrial Office Diversified Residential Hospitality Healthcare Specialized
03 4919 2929 0 0 0 0 0 0
04 12344 6189 5458 0 0 0 0 0
05 24064 15716 7312 9248 0 0 0 0
06 35082 20048 14636 11758 3173 0 0 0
07 72317 42532 34987 1854 7953 1223 1446 0
08 6508 3439 26179 1561 762 10519 6422 0
09 4945 28821 20857 10018 3758 4861 5197 0
10 76738 47631 39742 17782 6188 1220 7522 0
11 104025 87777 5322 27407 12393 16405 13105 0
12 112013 93221 56364 24259 11898 1450 13616 0
13 130698 107712 68086 47917 15109 31961 17999 0
14 159443 115798 80495 64488 1741 4230 18342 0
15 163131 109375 75232 6225 16744 45395 18358 6831
16 168423 127015 82747 6425 13784 41719 19079 7627
17 172877 138636 90674 69255 18147 46492 18982 1031
03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03
04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04
05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
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