The Global Imprint of Warming on Life AAAS/Carnegie PCAST Climate Change Report Anniversary, DC 2015 Camille Parmesan Professor, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, England Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin
The Global Imprint of Warming on Life
AAAS/Carnegie PCAST Climate Change Report Anniversary, DC 2015
Camille Parmesan
Professor, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, England
Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin
High Consistency among Global Meta-analyses of Recent Changes in Biological Systems
Study N: species + functional groupings
% Changing: distribution/ phenology
% changes consistent with Climate Change
Parmesan & Yohe Nature
2003 1598 59 % 84 %
Root et al. Nature 2003 1468 40 % 82.3 %
Root et al. PNAS 2005 145 - 92 %
Rosenzweig et al Nature 2008 55 studies - 90 %
Poloczanska et al. Nature
Climate Change 2013
857 76 % 83 %
Trends in Land and Ocean Temperatures – past 50 years
Burrows et al.Science 2011
Temperature change 1960-2009 (°C/decade)
Velocity of Temperature Shifts in Space
R a t e o f c h a n g e i n l o c a t i o n s o f t e m p e r a t u r e i s o t h e r m s i n p a s t 5 0 ye a r s 1 9 6 0 - 2 0 0 9 ( k m / d e c a d e )
Burrows et al. Science 2011
k m / d e c a d e g e o g r a p h i c s h i f t s o f i s o t h e r m s
fast
moderate
slow
Species Shi f t ing in to His tor ica l ly Cooler Lands and Waters
M a r i n e : m e a n s h i f t = 4 7 m i / d e c a d e ( 1 m e t a - a n a l y s i s )
Te r r e s t r i a l : m e a n s h i f t = 4 & 11 m i / d e c a d e ( 2 m e t a - a n a l y s e s )
B u t t e r f l i e s > 1 2 4 m i l e s i n 5 y r s
P u r p l e e m p e r o r
b o n y f i s h : > 1 2 4 m i / d e c At l a n t i c c o d
d i a t o m ~ 2 5 0 m i / d e c Poloczanska et al Nature Climate Change 2013; Chen et al. Science 2011; Parmesan Ann Rev Ecol Evol Syst 2006; Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003; Parmesan et al. Nature 1999
Velocity of Recent Temperature Isotherms Shifts (VoCC) Correctly Predicts Observed Range Shifts:
• Use to predict sources, corridors, barriers & sinks
Strong Sink
Sink & Barrier
Mild Sink
Inflow & Termination “Sinks”
Mild Sources
Strong Sources Non-moving
Slow moving
Stable “Refugia”
Movement Into “Species Gains”
Net Outflow “Species Loss”
Burrows et al. Nature 2014
Corridors Convergence
Purple emperor (Apatura iris)
Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982; Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers. comm.
2 independent invasions
Northward expansion of A i r is : * Ba l t ic was barr ier ( lag of 10-20 years) * Rapid expansion a f ter ar r iva l in FN & SW * Both correct ly predic ted by VoCC
P Schappert
apollo, Europe & Nepal
pika, USA & Nepal
Mountaintop species going extinct at lowest elevations
white lemuroid possum , Australia
Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1)
Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade
Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1) Juvenile fish & zooplankton (12) faster than phytoplankton (6) & molluscs (0)
Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012
• Near ly ¾ of p lants in long- term UK dataset a re dr iven only by spr ing temperatures
• Warmer spr ings cause advanced f lower ing
Observed changes in timing of first flowering
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012
• For species that requi re w inter ch i l l ing: • Winter warming causes de lay • Spr ing warming causes advancement • Observed changes are sum of two
opposing dr ivers
only respond to spring warming:
flowering earlier
red maple
creeping phlox
Signs Of Climate Change in DC
Signs Of Climate Change in DC
spring advance + winter delay = little change
mock strawberry
dandelion
Precipitation can be stronger driver than temperature
• Cal i forn ia s tudy – 64 p lant species • censuses in 1930s and 2000s • 72 % of p lants sh i f ted downslope:
o 269 f t . on average • Temperatures increased:
o + 1 .2°F (mean annua l ) • Rain & snow increased across
nor thern hal f o f CA • Downward expansions fo l lowed
increased water avai lab i l i ty Crimmins et al. Science 2011
0 150 -100
Cal i forn ia
Change in to ta l annual prec ip i ta t ion (mm): t ime per iods 1920 - 1949 vs 1976 - 2005
Mountain hemlock expanded 837 ft downhil l in California
Photo: Charles Webber, California Academy of Sciences
S i n c e 1 9 3 0 s t e m p e r a t u r e 5 ° F w a t e r d e f i c i t 5 . 3 i n .
Summary – responses of wild species to 0.7°C global increase since 1900
• ~ half of species have shifted their ranges poleward (50 - 1600 km) and/or upward (up to 400 m)
• ~ two-thirds of species studied have shifted towards earlier spring breeding, migrating, blooming….
• Every major group studied has been affected • trees, herbs, butterflies, birds, mammals, amphibians,
corals, invertebrates, fish, marine mammals & plankton • New research documents complex responses -
pr ior s tudies of propor t ion of species impacted by c l imate change are under -est imates Parmesan AREES 2006; Parmesan et al. Nature CC 2013;
Poloczanska et al. Nature CC 2013; Parmesan & Hanley Ann Botany in press
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012
Al l p lants were equal ly sensi t ive to spr ing warming, but d i f fer ing responses to w inter
warming drove d i f ferences in observed shi f ts in t iming of f lower ing