The Global Future of the HVAC&R Industry Dick Hayter Kansas State University Manhattan, KS.

The Global Future of the HVAC&R Industry

Dick HayterKansas State University

Manhattan, KS

A Perspective on the Future

“No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is but the world as it will be.”

Issac Asimov

The Challenges of Our Time

A world population of 6B, increasing to perhaps 10B by 2050

Rising expectations of developing countries

Escalating demand on (finite) resourcesPolitical and economic instabilityPreservation of environment Jim Schultz

What might the future bring?

Building envelopes that serve a dual role as the building electrical power source

Power sources within buildings (micro turbines, fuel cells)

Refrigerant free, energy efficient refrigeration equipment

Overview

Learning from the PastThe HVAC&R MarketInfluences on HVAC&R ApplicationsLooking AheadPreparing for the Future

Learning from the Past

As recently as the last century, central indoor climate control was only available to a limited privileged few.

Learning from the Past-Cont.

In the past, buildings had operable windows with awnings for shade, high ceilings and portable fans. Buildings were designed for optimum natural cooling.


Raffles Hotel, Singapore



Since 1940 eight of the 10 fastest growing cities in the U.S. are in the southern part of the country.


In excess of 56% of the entire US housing stock has central air-conditioning and 86% of all newly constructed homes have central air-conditioning. ARI

The HVAC Market

“ Shipments of central air conditioners and heat pumps are headed for a record year. . . . For the first time, our industry will exceed seven million factory shipments.” Dave Pannier

ARI Chair November

2004

The HVAC Market-Continued

ARI


ARI


As of January 1, 2003, about 51% of CFC chillers in US had been replaced or converted. (55% anticipated by end of 2003).

38,300 CFC chillers still in operation.

New, non-CFC chillers use 1/3 less energy than those 20 years ago.

Return on investment of replacement - 20% to 35% due to energy savings, etc.

ARI & EPA


7 billion-kilowatt hours/year have been saved because replacement chillers are more efficient.

This equates to the energy consumed by 740,000 households.

Because of less energy use, the production of CO2 has been reduced by 4 million tons/year.

ARI


Shipment-Weighted Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratios of Unitary Air-Conditioners (Less than 65,000 BTUH) Courtesy of ARI

Influences on HVAC&R Applications

“The solutions to infrastructure problems are probably 5% technical and 95% social, political, environmental and economic.”

Civil Infrastructure Systems Task ForceNational Science Foundation 1993


1. Energy2. Environment3. Human Factors4. Political5. Societal6. Communication


1. Energy“The greatest challenge to the human race in the 21st century will be to maintain and advance our quality of life as we face a dwindling reserve of energy resources.”

Bill Coad, Past President

ASHRAE


U.S. Residential & Commercial Sectors use 34 quads (34 X 1015Btu’s) or 35% of the nations total energy consumption

Comfort cooling and refrigeration accounts for 48% of the energy used.


2. Environment

“The protection of the environment is more than an economic issue – it is an ethical issue.”

Don Colliver, Past President

ASHRAE


Two environmental factors have significantly affected the building industry

Ozone depletion

Climate change


The energy consumed by the residential and commercial sectors results in the production of 523 million metric tons of carbon.


If every centrifugal chiller had an efficacy of 0.48 kW/Ton vs. 0.56, annual power plant emissions would be reduced by:

Nearly 17 billion pounds of CO2.

Over 64 billion grams of SO2

Over 27 billion grams of Nox

Jim Wolf, ASHRAEPast President


Which is equivalent to:

Removing over 2 million cars from the road.

Planting nearly 500 million trees each year.


3. Human FactorsComparative annual costs for an office

building in the U.S.Energy: 2-4 $/ft2/yearOperating: 2-4 $/ft2/yearOwn/rent: 10-40 $/ft2/year


Comparative annual costs for an office building in the U.S.

Energy: 2-4 $/ft2/yearOperating: 2-4 $/ft2/yearOwn/rent: 10-40 $/ft2/year

Occupant: 200-400 $/ft2/year


4. PoliticalDecisions affecting design and selection of

equipment must be based on solid technical principles to be of long term benefit to a global society.

Standards for system design and equipment performance should be uniform to promote good engineering decisions (locally AND globally).


5. SocietalBuildings must be designed and

operated for the long term sustainability of our natural resources.

Buildings must be safe!• Free of harmful contaminants• Structurally sound• Vulnerability to terrorism, minimized


6. CommunicationThe internet has a profound effect on

our profession. Instantaneous global communication of

data, designs and ideas. Instant access to new technology.Unlimited opportunity for expanded

knowledge through education.


www.ashrae.org

www.ari.org


Warning

“Is the information valid?”

Looking Ahead

1. Equipment & Systems2. Refrigerants3. Controllers4. Human Factors5. Specialty Environments6. Design Teaming

Looking Ahead

1. Equipment & Systems Improved compressor capacity modulationCost effective expansion energy recovery

systemsReliable oil-less drives to eliminate system

lubricants Improved air to refrigerant heat

exchanger performance Jim Schultz

Looking Ahead

Equipment and SystemsRadiant CoolingNatural and Displacement Ventilation (?)Refrigerant-free cooling

• Thermoelectric Cooling• Vortex Cooling• Magnetic Cooling• Thermo-Acoustic Cooling

Looking Ahead

2. RefrigerantsExpanded use of natural refrigerants (CO2,

H20, NH3)Expanded use of flammable refrigerants

(propane, butane)Trade-offs include low COP (CO2), High

specific volume (H20), Safety (NH3,flammables)

Looking Ahead

Refrigerants Continued Improved and practical approach to zero

refrigerant leakageSmaller refrigerant charge requirementsReduced energy requirements (improved

thermodynamic properties)Jim Schultz

Looking Ahead

3. ControllersBuilding automation will migrate to

equipment-controllers level Internet enabled (cyber security)Better response to part loadWireless Responsive to power quality anomalies

Jim Schultz

Looking Ahead

4. Human FactorsMore sophisticated controllers will allow

broader conditions and use of more variables to maintain thermal comfort (expanded use of comfort envelope, non-steady state control, radiant heating & cooling, etc.).

Improved air-quality will improve comfort (and productivity).

Acoustical controls at equipment and system levels will provide improved environments.

Looking Ahead

5. Specialty Environments Personalized environmental controls

• Hazmat• Emergency Response• Hot or chemically hazardous work

environments Office Cubes Manufacturing Processes Food Animal Confinement Housing

Looking Ahead

6. Design TeamingDesign/Build = here todayDesign process changesNarrower specialtiesVirtual design teams

Preparing for the Future

Your value as an engineer is based on what you know and your ability to apply it.

Standards (ASHRAE, ISO, CEN, IEC, NAFTA)Multinational LicensingLifelong learning-Virtual ClassroomsResearch

Preparing for the Future

As you engineer your future, ask yourself two questions -

1. What is your vision for your future?

2. How will you fulfill your vision?

Conclusion

“Vision without action is merely a dream and action without vision just passes the time, but vision with action can change the world.”

Joel Barker

The Global Future of the HVAC&R Industry Dick Hayter Kansas State University Manhattan, KS.

Documents

year slide

future slide

ks slide

singapore slide

communication slide

ari epa slide

hvacr market influences

past president ashrae