THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme Hugo Federation Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS, The University of Adelaide Presentation to the Office of Senior Victorians, Melbourne 27 October 2004
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THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme Hugo Federation Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications.
What is Ageing The individual level The population level - numerical growth of the growth as a proportion of the population
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THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA
byGraeme Hugo
Federation FellowProfessor of Geography and Director of the National
Centre for Social Applications of GIS,The University of Adelaide
Presentation to the Office of Senior Victorians, Melbourne
27 October 2004
Outline of Presentation• Introduction
• How do populations age?
• Key aspects of demographic ageing in Australia
• Why does ageing vary in local areas?
• Patterns of ageing in metropolitan areas
• Patterns of ageing in non metropolitan areas
• The future of ageing in Victoria
• Some implications
• Conclusion
What is Ageing
The individual level
The population level
- numerical growth of the 65+- growth as a proportion of the population
Why is Australia’s Population Ageing?
• Fertility is low (TFR = 1.78)
• Mortality of the older population is decreasing- added more than 10 years since 1947- added more than 5 years to 50+ since 1971
• Immigration
Key Aspects of Ageing in Australia
• Doubling of numbers 65+ in next 25 years
• Doubling of proportion aged 65+
• Changes in characteristics
• Changes in spatial distribution
Projections of Australia’s Aged and Working Age Population
Influence of the Baby Boom GenerationAge Distribution of the Population
Source: ABS, 1999, 7
Qualitative Differences of CohortsOlder Baby Boomers
• Different attitudes to working at older ages• More healthy• More living by themselves• Different housing aspirations• More ethnically heterogeneous• Different health problems• Different living areas• Fewer children• Higher education• More mobile• Better off economically but more unequal• Higher expectations
Structural Ageing:Australia: Change by Age (5): 2004 – 2010; 2020 (Series B)
Victoria: Growth in the Population in the Dependent Age Groups, Actual 1947 to 2001 and Projected 2006 to 2051
Source: ABS Censuses 1946 to 2001 and ABS Projections Series B
Victorian Statistical Divisions: Percent Share of Total and Aged Population, 2001 Source: ABS Census, 2001
Victorian Statistical Divisions Percent Share of State Population Difference (Ranked by size of population) Total Population Aged Population Total and Aged Share
Victorian Statistical Divisions: Comparison of Average Annual Growth Rates in Total and Aged Populations, 1991-96, 1996-2001
Source: ABS Censuses, 1991-2001
Annual Growth Rates Victorian Statistical Divisions Total Population Total Population 65+ Population (Ranked by size of Population) 2001 1991-96 1996-2001 1991-96 1996-2001
Victoria: Metropolitan Area, Percent Aged 75+, 1996-2001Source: ABS 2001 Census
Victorian Metropolitan SLAs: Summary of Trends in the SLA Growth in Aged 65+ and Total Population, 1996-2001
Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
Average Annual Growth Rate
Percent Aged 65+
Classification Category No. of SLAs Percent Total Aged 65+ 1996 2001
1. Growth Total >5 and Growth Aged >5 7 9.3 9.6 11.4 4.8 5.2 2. Growth Total <5 and Growth Aged >5 13 17.3 1.8 6.6 6.6 8.4 3. Growth Total and Growth Aged <5 40 53.3 0.9 2.2 12.7 13.6 4. Growth Total and Loss Aged 12 16.0 0.7 -0.9 15.3 14.1 5. Loss Total and Loss Aged 1 1.3 -0.5 -0.1 16.7 17.1 6. Loss Total and Growth Aged <5 2 2.7 -0.5 3.7 9.8 12.1
Total SLAs 75 100.0
Melbourne Statistical Division: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001
Victoria Metropolitan and Non Metropolitan Age Sex Structure, 2001Source: ABS 2001 Census
Non Metropolitan (shaded) and Metropolitan
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Age
Per cent
Males Females
Victoria: Non Metropolitan Area Percent of Population Aged 65+, 2001
Source: ABS 2001 Census
Victoria: Non Metropolitan Area Percent of Population Aged 75+, 2001
Source: ABS 2001 Census
Victorian Non Metropolitan SLAs: Summary of Patterns of Distribution and Growth Aged and Total Population by SLA,
1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
No. of
Distribution of Aged 65+
Distribution of Total
SLA Classification Category SLAs No. % No. %
65+ as Percent of
Total
1. Aged and Total Population Growth 69 125,262 68.9 907,064 71.3 13.8 2. Aged Growth and Total Loss 35 35,631 19.6 236,658 18.6 15.1 3. Aged Loss and Total Growth 3 7,144 3.9 46,788 3.7 15.3 4. Aged and Total Population Loss 15 13,860 7.6 82,204 6.5 16.9
Total SLAs 122 181,897 100.0 1,272,714 100.0 14.3
Barwon SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census