THE FUTURISTS Teaching Futuring and Innovation with Emerging Media Cynthia Calongne, The Institute for Advanced Studies
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THE FUTURISTS
Teaching Futuring and Innovation with Emerging MediaCynthia Calongne, The Institute for Advanced Studies
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The modern classroom
Lyr Lobo’s ExperimentalDesign island
Futuring and Innovation
Usability and Interaction
Advanced Game Design
Robotics
Software Requirements Engineering
Software Design
Systems Engineering Methods
Acheron LV426
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Meeting minds - the value of social media, futuring and innovation in a virtual world
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Social Media and Co-Laboratories of Thought
Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions
Influences on potential innovations Technology, economics, culture, ethics, legal, political
Horizon Report over the years: cloud computing, semantic Web, mobile computing, virtual worlds, smart objects
Social media culture shift – consumers become producers Tools: Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, & Wikis Global awareness, creativity, community and collaboration
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The one Web
We are the computer
From Ted Talks, 2007 [8]
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William Kamkwamba’s windmill – Ted Talks [1]
At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmillfrom a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades
It powers 4 bulbs and 2 radios with 12 watts
Next step: to build a 20-watt irrigation system
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SustainabilityChanging viewpoints
Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2]
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A train moves down a narrow track as tables and shops recede into
the walls.
In a matter of seconds, a thriving marketplace
emerges. [2]
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Harmony
Cities are green
Stewart Brand onTed Talks
Bangkok train – co-existingwith the marketplace [2]
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The Influence of Social Media
Disaster Response
May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake 90,000 lost, schools destroyed
Community
Turbo Tax chat 40% of customer questions were answered by other customers with the highest accuracy rate in 24 years
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Warning! Sensitive content on the next
slide
Broadcasting the news as it is happening [4]
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First Response
When every minute counts [3]
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News in China
May 2008 Sichuan earthquakeSchool buildings not built to
code [4]
Twitter and Flickr
Children lost from single child families
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The Great Firewall of China – successful censorship of social media [4]
Media is global, social, ubiquitous & cheapMost of the media is no longer produced by professionals [4]
-Twitter, YouTube, Flickr, Facebook- The influence of social media
Photos and Twitter’s micro bloggingnews broadcast real-time information on the aftermath of China’s earthquakes
June 2, 2009 - China blocked access to Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail two days before the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests
“The tools don’t get socially
interesting until they get technologically boring.”
[4]Consumers become producers
The same tools support them. People listening all over the world
Twitter announced the quake first
During the previous quake, China announced it 3 months
after it happened.
Clay Shirky – How social media can make history
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Why do things work that way?
Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5]
In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use
http://
Japan’s Technology Forecasts Characteristics
Structured approach Organized Firms, universities
Feedback loops Chief strategists (MITI)
Micromanagement
ERATO projects
Directing Japanese R&D investments
Bottom-up view, begins with Firms Universities, research
institutes National associations
Long term vision Govt ministries, MITI, JRDC
Long term technology forecasts Science & Tech Agency Institute of Future
Technology Economic Planning Agency JICST
From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Technology Forecasters Evolution
Scientific Discovery Inventions Science Fiction Futurology Tech Forecasting
Think Tanks Rand Corporation
Forecasters Forecast International
Futurists Einstein Inventors Jules Verne H.G. Wells Herman Kahn
Dr. Strangelove
www.rand.org/
www.forecastinternational.com/
From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Rand Corporation, 1948
The Hudson Institute, 1961
Think Tanks
Futurist, nuclear scientist, and systems theorist
Predicted the rise of Japanas a world power
Major Forecasting Techniques Technique
Delphi method Nominal group Case study S-Curve Correlation analysis Lead-user analysis Analytic hierarchy Systems dynamics Cross-impact analysis Relevance trees Scenario writing
Description Brainstorming Delphi - leader Analogous problems Looking beyond trends Past to future tech Leading edge users Forces influencing
development Dynamic relationships
model Interrelated future events Goal trees & probability Alternate future viewsFrom p. 167 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Forecasts by Herman Kahn 1. Nuclear explosives for excavation & power
2. Weather and climate control
3. More reliable propaganda and education for affecting behavior
4. Human hibernation – months to years
5. Improved capability to change the sex of children & adults
6. Substantial increase in life expectancy and rejuvenation
7. High quality medical care for underdeveloped nations
8. Permanent manned satellite and lunar installations & travel
9. Life systems for terrestrial installations – outer space travel
10. Undersea installations and coloniesFrom p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan
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Forecasts by Herman Kahn 211. Automated grocery and department stores
12. Extensive use of robots and machines performing mundane tasks
13. Chemical methods for improving learning and memory
14. Greater use of underground buildings
15. Very low cost buildings for home and business use
16. Simulated, planned and even programmed dreams
17. Inexpensive worldwide transportation of humans and cargo
18. Inexpensive road-free transportation
19. Artificial moons and other methods for lighting large areas at night
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From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan
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This is not your grandmother’s internet
Researchers and game designers
- Explore the potential
- Imagine breakthrough ideas
- Create transformations
New horizons in game simulationand virtual world research
Blending social media and virtual worlds
Research consortium
Global Learning Forum
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Matt Purkeypile on a PracticalQuantum Computer Programming Framework [6]
Quantum ComputingResearch
Gazing Into the Future
Web science research initiative Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media Focuses on technology, tools, behavior and Web
engineering
For more information, visit: What is the Web Science Initiative
http://webscience.org/
Proposed curriculum and courses offered around the world http://webscience.org/wiki/Curriculum
The Tetherless World & TW Research Constellation http://tw.rpi.edu/wiki/Main_Page http://tw.rpi.edu/launch/
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Resources Teaching using emerging media
http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/
Visual tour of social media & virtual worlds http://www.slideshare.net/lyrlobo/presentations
Animoto videos from social media and game simulation research http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/global-learning-forum-event-tour.html
http://animoto.com/play/giF9IkshVTXZ3bewYUsXnA http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/game-simulation-tour-in-second-life.html
http://animoto.com/play/ktooen8b0XqwLp6HnNEGtA http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/animoto-video-second-life-summer-09.html
http://animoto.com/play/z2TLLCwEoOt2qonSa5S5Gw
Constitution Day, Graduation Party – How music changes a video http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/10/how-music-changes-video.html
Constitution Day, Graduation party 2009 – original music http://animoto.com/play/15T3PngF3l68010ryw24SQ Remix http://animoto.com/play/joPGETsdYQBdcLqIlCwTkQ
Questions? Contact Cynthia Calongne on Facebook & at 719-337-1526 (cell); email [email protected] Lyr Lobo in Second Life; Twitter: lyrlobo; Skype: Lyr Lobo; Slideshare: lyrlobo
Lyr Lobo in Second Life
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[1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_building_a_windmill.html
[2] Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’ http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html 1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week!
[3] Kdingflickr’s photostream - China’s biggest earthquake in 32 years http://www.flickr.com/photos/hzdkl/tags/2008chinasbiggestearthquakein32years/
[4] Clay Shirky how social media can make history http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html
[5] Bryan Alexander ‘s Twitter Feed http://tinyurl.com/yhdeo5q on Berners-Lee http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article6872873.ece
[6] Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html
[7] Sherdan, H. (1999). The Fortune Sellers. The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predications. Wiley, New York.
[8] Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web. http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
References
Acknowledgements Futuring and Innovation at Colorado Technical
University Matthew Purkeypile Brent Wilson David Graves Maurice Dawson Benjamin Herr Will Henry Carlton Lawrence Katherine Moore Anne Sempa Tremayne Porter
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