The Future of Work Where are the Jobs? 2004-2014 Career Services Central Piedmont Community College October 2007.

The Future of WorkWhere are the Jobs? 2004-2014

Career ServicesCentral Piedmont Community CollegeOctober 2007

Hot JobsFastest Growing (Percents)

2002-2012Medical Assistants 59%Network Systems/Data Communications

Analysts 57%Physician Assistants 49%Social and Human Service Assistants 49% Home Health Aides 48%Medical Records/Health Information 47% Technicians

Physical Therapist Aides 46%Computer Software Eng., Applications 46%Computer Software Eng., Systems Software 45%Physical Therapist Assistants 45%

2004-2014Home Health Aides 56%Network Systems & Data Comm. Analysts 54.6%Medical Assistants 52.1%Physicians Assistants49.6%Computer Soft. Engineers 48.4%Physical Therapist Assistants 44.2%Dental Hygienists 43.3%Computer Soft Eng, System Software 43%Dental Assistants 42.7%Personal and Home Care Aides 41%

Largest Job Growth(Numbers)

2002-2012

Registered NursesPostsecondary TeachersRetail SalespersonsCustomer Services Reps.Food Prep/ServersCashiersJanitors/CleanersGeneral/Operations Mgrs.Waiters/WaitressesNursing Aides/Orderlies

2004-2014

Retail SalespersonsRegistered NursesPostsecondary TeachersCustomer Service RepsJanitors/CleanersWaiters/WaitressesFood Prep/ServersHome Health AidesNursing Aides/OrderliesGeneral/Operations Mgrs.

Food Service and Health Care have accounted for about 1/2 of all non-farm employment growth in 2007. …BLS, October 5, 2007

Fastest Growing Industries Wages and Salaries

Home Health Care Services Software Publishers Consulting Services* Residential Care Facilities Facilities Support Services Employment Services Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers Office Administrative Services Computer Systems Design Outpatient, Laboratory and other Ambulatory Health Care

Services * Management, Scientific and Technical

Health Care

Where they will work:Home Health Care 69.5%Outpatient Care Centers 44.2%Offices/other practitioners 42.7%Dentists 31.7%Ambulatory care services 37.7%Physicians Offices 37%Nursing Homes 27.8%Labs 27.1%Hospitals 13.1%

Careers Home Health Aides 56% Medical Assistants 52% Physician Assistants 50% Physical Therapist

Assistants 44%

Health Care Jobs 3.6 million new jobs – 19% increase of all jobs High turnover and retirements Tougher immigration rules limit foreign workers Increased health care needs of older population Life expectancies rise Aging children unable to care for parents Improved survival rates of severely ill/physical

therapy New technologies will identify and treat conditions Medical groups will become larger/more complex Shift from inpatient to outpatient/ home health

care Need to work in settings other than hospitals Use more assistants to contain costs Replacement needs will offset technological

changes to keep demand high

Occupations with the Most New Jobs:  Associate's Degrees or Postsecondary Vocational

Registered nurses +703 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants

+325 Preschool teachers, except special education

+143 Automotive service technicians and

mechanics +126 Licensed practical / licensed vocational

nurses +124 Computer support specialists +119 Hairdressers, hairstylists, and

cosmetologists +98 Dental hygienists +68 Paralegals and legal assistants +67 Medical secretaries +63

---increase 2004-2014 (numbers are in thousands of jobs)

Recent Job Losses

----Philip L. Rones, Acting Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 5, 2007

MortgageMortgage LendingLending/Related/Related

46,000 since Feb. 2007

Employment Employment ServicesServices

223,000 since Sept 2006

Residential ConstructionResidential Construction

112,000 in one year

ManufacturingManufacturing

223,000 since Sept 2006

Impacts on Jobs

Outsourcing: abroad or to other firms Global Competition: educated populations Baby Boomer Retirements Occupational Labor Shortages Immigration- high and low skilled jobs Discoveries of new technologies /production Automation Business Practices

Survivors

Accountant financial life planner Secretary more complex tasks, planning,

accounting, etc Computer Programmer needs industry

specific people skills Bank Teller answers higher level requests Factory Worker expert on computer-

controlled machines"I think there's going to be an enormous shift of occupations. Most jobs are going

to change. They'll survive, but they'll change." … futurist Alvin Toffler, author of Future Shock and Revolutionary Wealth

Why Jobs Move Offshore/Change

Work is highly repetitive (accounting) Work is predictable and well defined

(customer service)

Can be broken down into small manageable projects (software development)

Can be turned into a routine (Tele-marketing)

Proximity to the end customer is not important (phone based tech support of consumer products)

End customer has already moved offshore (semiconductor sales)

“Safe” Careers

Jobs That Stay…

High degree of ambiguity (top management positions) Unpredictable (hands on technical

troubleshooting) Understanding of the culture is critical

(authoring books, marketing, comedians)

Time is of the essence (fast product development) Requires a high degree of collaboration (making a movie) Requires close proximity to the end customer

(firefighting, auto repair, dental work) Requires high degree of creativity and innovation

(creating new products, technical breakthroughs, writing music)

Requires complex communication skills Needs to understand and implement the “big picture” Involves complex pattern recognition (counselor, lawyer)

NewNewHydrogen Fuel Station Mrg.

Hollywood HolographerDrowned City Specialist

Quarantine EnforcerSpace Tour GuideAnimal GuardianRobot MechanicGene ScreenerDirigible Pilot

NewNewHydrogen Fuel Station Mrg.

Hollywood HolographerDrowned City Specialist

Quarantine EnforcerSpace Tour GuideAnimal GuardianRobot MechanicGene ScreenerDirigible Pilot

RemainRemain

PoliticianMortician

Tax CollectorReligious Leader

BarberArtist

Soldier

RemainRemain

PoliticianMortician

Tax CollectorReligious Leader

BarberArtist

Soldier

DisappearDisappear Grocery Store Clerk

Film ProcessorCD Store ManagerUnion Organizer

Encyclopedia WriterMiner

Construction WorkerFighter Pilots

Call Center RepsOil Wildcatter

DisappearDisappear Grocery Store Clerk

Film ProcessorCD Store ManagerUnion Organizer

Encyclopedia WriterMiner

Construction WorkerFighter Pilots

Call Center RepsOil Wildcatter

Going Green

Hydrologists – flood control environmental preservation

Environmental Engineers Environmental Health Scientists Urban/Regional Planners Environmental Consulting

“The green-energy business already accounts for at least 14,400 jobs and is growing three times as fast as other major industries”

– Massachusetts Technology Collaborative

The Graying of the Workforce Baby Boomers in 2014 will be 50-

68 2005-50 massive exit from

workforce Loss of knowleable workforce Will live between 85-95 Work longer? Need computer skills Retirement ages change:70, 72,

75? By 2040 a big inheritance might go

to the next generation?

Education Pays

Median Weekly Earnings in 2006 (Dollars)

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000

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Unemployment % in 2006 by Education

Action Strategies

Research career before entering

Talk to a professional in the field you are considering

Choose a high demand career that even the labor markets of China & India will not fill all the jobs

Stay current with learning~ computer and communication skills

Great Work Ethic & Positive Attitude

Be alert in highly repetitive jobs that do not require close proximity to the customer

Resources

Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2005, 2004-2024 Outlook, Next possible update – November 2007 www.bls.gov

Occupational Outlook Quarterly Reports www.bls.gov

Jobs Of The Future, Hannah Clark, 05.23.06, Forbes Magazine

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Career Guide to Industries, 2006-07 Edition, Health Care, on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/cgs035.htm (visited October 14, 2007).

Statement by Philip L. Rones, Acting Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 5, 2007

"A new look at long-term labor force projections to 2050," Monthly Labor Review, November 2006, pp. 19-39, by Mitra Toossi