The image part with relationship ID rId2 was not found in the file. John Nurthen Executive Director Global Research Staffing Industry Analysts The Future of Work and Pensions
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The image part with relationship ID rId2 was not found in the file.
John NurthenExecutive Director Global Research Staffing Industry Analysts
The Future of Work and Pensions
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Our Customers (Partial List)
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Agenda
Gig Economy and the ‘Casualisation of the Workforce’
Demographic Issues
Impact of Technology on the Workforce
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Contingent Work is Short Term in Nature
Gig Work = Contingent work
Source: SIA Lexicon: The Global Language of the Workforce Solutions Ecosystem
Used to describe work arrangements that differ from regular/permanent, direct wage and salary employment. Contingent work and workers are primarily distinguished by having an explicitly defined or limited tenure. Contingent workers include temporary employees provided by an outside staffing agency and independent contractors/consultants. Contingent workers may also include temporary workers from an internal pool, and others (such as summer interns, seasonal workers, freelancers, “crowd-sourced” workers, etc.) employed directly by an organization for an intentionally limited time period.
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$3,700,000,000,000SIA’s Estimate of the Global Gig Economy 2017
Source: The US Gig Economy - 2018 Edition
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Contingent Work in Europe
Numbers of Workers (Contingent v Non-Contingent) by Country 2017
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts & Eurostat
Contingent
Temp Agency Work
Other Temp ProfesionalIC
Other IC Total Contingent
Non-Contingent Employees
Contingent as % of Employees
Germany 1,032,238 3,751,262 1,466,800 758,400 7,008,700 36,706,300 19%Italy 372,838 2,349,262 1,815,400 1,774,000 6,311,500 20,228,100 31%Spain 136,303 4,054,497 733,200 1,319,400 6,243,400 14,624,700 43%France 737,088 3,272,612 790,100 1,105,700 5,905,500 22,840,700 26%Poland 216,000 3,202,000 556,600 1,687,000 5,661,600 12,972,700 44%United Kingdom 917,052 622,448 1,866,300 2,104,200 5,510,000 30,291,100 18%Netherlands 282,000 1,260,900 571,900 461,500 2,576,300 7,036,500 37%Scandinavia 148,454 1,498,447 372,700 395,800 2,415,401 11,307,899 21%Belgium 115,973 298,527 254,000 179,700 848,200 4,214,500 20%Switzerland 90,408 433,092 185,100 127,300 835,900 4,079,600 20%Austria 76,593 265,907 128,800 135,000 606,300 3,902,400 16%
43,922,801 168,204,499 26%
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Online StaffingShort term work with known individual worker in a labour
relationshipExamples: Upwork or Freelancer
Online ServicesShort term work bundled with a service component – workers may be known
or unknownExample: Uber
Crowdsourcing Micro-tasks and contests
performed by often unknown/multiple workersExamples: Amazon Mechanical Turk or 99 Designs
The Human Cloud
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Online Staffing Attracting Wide Interest
The Usual Suspects The Unusual Suspects
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Workforce Plans by Type of Worker
How will the following employee types change as a share of your total labour force over the next 10 years? (Proportion of respondents)
Significant decrease in
share
Moderate decrease in
shareAbout the
same
Moderate increase in
share
Significant increase in
shareNet increase (decrease)
Freelancers 0 10% 38% 35% 17% 42%
SOW consultants 2% 12% 31% 35% 21% 42%
Agency temporary workers 7% 16% 21% 41% 16% 34%
Outsourced workers 4% 4% 61% 18% 14% 24%
Internally sourced temporary workers 10% 6% 50% 23% 12% 19%
Other Independent contractors 4% 13% 54% 24% 6% 13%
Regular Part-time Employees 4% 12% 65% 17% 2% 4%
Regular Full-time employees 19% 19% 31% 19% 12% -7%
Source: Workforce Solutions Buyers Survey EMEA 2017
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Contingent Workers Hold Multiple Jobs
Source: SIA, The Gig Economy*Excluding self-employed workers already reported as temporary agency or human cloud workers
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Personal Pension Provision for Contingent Workers
Pension planning by self-employed independent contractors is traditionally weak
Governments tend to overlook this category of worker
Pension provision for Temporary Agency Workers varies widely by country
– Pension entitlements in Germany and Sweden on a par with ‘employed’ workers
– Auto-enrolment in the UK applies after three months
– BASIC pension after 26 weeks and PLUS pension after 78 weeks in the Netherlands
– Some staffing companies offer pension schemes as a benefit to attract workers
New Freelancers focused on short-term gains, not long-term investment planning
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Agenda
Gig Economy and the ‘Casualisation of the Workforce’
Demographic Issues
Impact of Technology on the Workforce
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THERE ARE NO SKILLS SHORTAGES
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ALL THE WORKERS ARE IN THE WRONG PLACES
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Population Decline Forecast in Europe, Growth Elsewhere
Population aged 15-64 in thousands
Source: UN World Population Prospects
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Decline US Labour Force Growth
US Labor Force Average Annual Growth by Decade
Source: US BLS, US Census Bureau, Bain Macrotrends Group Analysis 2017
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Agenda
Gig Economy and the ‘Casualisation of the Workforce’
Demographic Issues
Impact of Technology on the Workforce
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Source: Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation, September 2013
“47% of total US employment is at risk from automation”
Carl Frey Michael Osborne
The Robots are Coming
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Automation Bottlenecks
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Source: PwC Economics
Sectors at Risk of Automation
Potential Jobs at high risk of automation
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Future Demand for Occupations
Occupations that will likely shrink
Occupations that will likely growWe don’t know
20% 70% 10%
Source: The Future of Skills, Oxford Martin School, 2017
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Robot and Robotic Process Automation (RPA) Providers
Robot Providers RPA Providers
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Implications for Retirement Provision and Pension Investment Management
Gig Economy and the ‘Casualisation of the Workforce’
– Cater for people with portfolio careers working in non-traditional ways
– Support government initiatives to encourage pension provision among contingent workers
Demographic Issues
– Expect fewer workers and more people working longer and/or taking semi-retirement
– Phased pension pay-outs for those who want to continue working at reduced hours
Impact of Technology on the Workforce
– Keep abreast of technology impacts; prepare for the worst, hope for the best
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Pension Provision Varies Across Occupations
UK Pension Provision by Occupation 2017
Source: Office for National Statistics
Defined benefit %
Defined contribution %
Group pension plan %
Group self-invested personal pension %
Group stakeholder pension %
Total pension %
Unknown pension provision %
No pension provision %
All employees 28.2 22.9 14.8 0.8 4.7 71.4 1.4 27.1Managers, directors and senior officials 17.8 28.1 22.2 1.7 6.9 76.7 1.6 21.7Professional occupations 51.6 15.4 13.6 0.9 3.6 85.1 1.2 13.7Associate professional & technical occupations 32.1 21.8 20.1 1.3 5.7 81.0 1.4 17.7Administrative and secretarial occupations 31.0 19.8 14.7 0.8 4.0 70.3 1.5 28.4Skilled trades occupations 13.2 29.6 17.3 0.8 5.5 66.4 2.0 31.6Caring, leisure and other service occupations 34.8 20.0 7.9 0.2 2.3 65.2 1.5 33.4Sales and customer service occupations 8.9 29.9 10.8 0.4 7.0 57.0 0.7 42.3Process, plant and machine operatives 12.6 31.6 19.0 1.0 6.0 70.2 2.1 27.7Elementary occupations 13.9 25.3 9.9 0.3 3.1 52.5 1.2 46.3
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Wider Solutions
Gig Economy and the ‘Casualisation of the Workforce’
– Embrace alternative work forms and legislate against exploitation
Demographic Issues
– Open borders and provide better work opportunities for older workers and minorities
Impact of Technology on the Workforce
– Invest more in education and training
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