The Future of Weather Disasters Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, LLC [email protected] .

The Future of Weather DisastersThe Future of Weather DisastersThe Future of Weather DisastersThe Future of Weather Disasters

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, LLCThe Weather Underground, [email protected]@wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com/http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.htmlblog/JeffMasters/show.html

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, LLCThe Weather Underground, [email protected]@wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com/http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.htmlblog/JeffMasters/show.html

Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’sServed as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’sAircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990Aircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990

Publications:Publications:

http://www.wunderground.com/resources/education/hugo1.asp

The comments section of Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog: Not The comments section of Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog: Not for the faint of heart! Beware of trolls and nastiness, but for the faint of heart! Beware of trolls and nastiness, but also expect great links, commentary, news, and inspiration.also expect great links, commentary, news, and inspiration.

Major Inspiration: the Birth of the Portlight Disaster Major Inspiration: the Birth of the Portlight Disaster Relief Charity, Comments Section of my September 13, Relief Charity, Comments Section of my September 13, 2008 Post, “Ike Makes a Direct Hit On Galveston”2008 Post, “Ike Makes a Direct Hit On Galveston”

Most Expensive U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980 Most Expensive U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980

Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions* Preliminary estimate, not from NCDC

$15+ Billion non-U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980$15+ Billion non-U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980

Source: http://www.emdat.beSource: http://www.emdat.be

Extremes Have been Rising Since the 1970s, and the TExtremes Have been Rising Since the 1970s, and the Twwo Most Extreme o Most Extreme Years in U.S. History Were Also the Two Warmest Years: 2012 and 1998Years in U.S. History Were Also the Two Warmest Years: 2012 and 1998

Percent area covered by summer temperature anomalies in categories defined as hot (> 0.43 standard deviations, 33% chance), very hot (> 2 standard deviations, 2.3% chance), and extremely hot (> 3 standard deviations, .13% chance.) Anomalies and standard deviation computed from a 1951 - 1980 climatology. Extremely hot 3-standard deviation summers covered 0.1-0.2% of Earth’s surface in 1951-1980, but now cover 4-13%. From Hansen et al., 2012, "Perception of Climate Change.”

Since 2006, Dangerously Hot 1-in-741 Year Summers Have Since 2006, Dangerously Hot 1-in-741 Year Summers Have Expanded by 50 Times Compared to 1951 - 1980Expanded by 50 Times Compared to 1951 - 1980

There is More Moisture in the Air, and the Heavy Precipitation There is More Moisture in the Air, and the Heavy Precipitation Events Most Likely to Cause Flooding are IncreasingEvents Most Likely to Cause Flooding are Increasing

Extreme Summer Jet Stream Patterns Have Extreme Summer Jet Stream Patterns Have Doubled in Frequency in the Past 11 YearsDoubled in Frequency in the Past 11 Years

Are Tornadoes Increasing in Are Tornadoes Increasing in Frequency and Intensity?Frequency and Intensity?

2007 United Nations IPCC report: "There is insufficient evidence 2007 United Nations IPCC report: "There is insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in small scale phenomena such to determine whether trends exist in small scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lighting, and dust storms."as tornadoes, hail, lighting, and dust storms."

However, Bouwer (BAMS, 2010) reviewed 22 disaster loss studies world-wide, published 2001 - 2010; in all 22 studies, increases in wealth and population were the "most important drivers for growing disaster losses." Conclusion: human-caused climate change "so far has not had a significant impact on losses from natural disasters."

The Tornado Database is Highly Unsuitable for Detecting Long-TermThe Tornado Database is Highly Unsuitable for Detecting Long-TermTrends, but Shows no Change in EF-1 and Stronger TornadoesTrends, but Shows no Change in EF-1 and Stronger Tornadoes

Trapp et al., 2007

Severe Thunderstorms are Predicted to IncreaseSevere Thunderstorms are Predicted to Increase

Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station

Are Hurricanes Getting Stronger?Are Hurricanes Getting Stronger?

““It remains uncertain whether past changes in any tropical It remains uncertain whether past changes in any tropical cyclone activity (frequency, intensity, rainfall, and so on) cyclone activity (frequency, intensity, rainfall, and so on) exceed the variability expected through natural causes” exceed the variability expected through natural causes”

- 2010 Review Article by Ten Top Hurricane Scientists, “Tropical cyclones and climate change”- 2010 Review Article by Ten Top Hurricane Scientists, “Tropical cyclones and climate change”

Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."

But, 1-in-20 Year “Katrina-level” Storm Surges are Increasing, and are Twice as Likely in Warm Years

•Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005).

•Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1-2 °C.

•Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5-10%.

•Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%.

•Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do 1.5 - 3 times more damage than they do now.

Twelve Potential $100 Billion Weather-Twelve Potential $100 Billion Weather-Related Disasters of the Next 30 YearsRelated Disasters of the Next 30 YearsTwelve Potential $100 Billion Weather-Twelve Potential $100 Billion Weather-Related Disasters of the Next 30 YearsRelated Disasters of the Next 30 Years

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, LLCThe Weather Underground, LLChttp://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, LLCThe Weather Underground, LLChttp://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com

12) Tampa Bay Hurricane12) Tampa Bay HurricaneProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

Bayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 HurricaneBayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 Hurricane

11) Japanese Super Typhoon11) Japanese Super TyphoonProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

Flooding from Category 5 Super Typhoon Vera, September 26, 1959Flooding from Category 5 Super Typhoon Vera, September 26, 1959Strongest typhoon on record in Japan: 160 mph winds, 5,098 killedStrongest typhoon on record in Japan: 160 mph winds, 5,098 killed

Potential tracks of a $100-billion Japanese super typhoon

China floods and landslides, 2010: China floods and landslides, 2010: 4245 killed, $51 billion damage4245 killed, $51 billion damage

10) China Flood10) China FloodProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

9) Galveston/Houston Hurricane9) Galveston/Houston HurricaneProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

1900 Galveston Hurricane damage1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

8) Miami Hurricane8) Miami HurricaneProbability: 40%Probability: 40%

Miami Beach, 1926 HurricaneMiami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

7) New Orleans Hurricane7) New Orleans HurricaneProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

Northern China dust storm, April 6, 2001Northern China dust storm, April 6, 2001

6) China Drought6) China DroughtProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

Hurricane Sandy approaching New Jersey, October 28, 2012Hurricane Sandy approaching New Jersey, October 28, 2012

5) New York City Hurricane5) New York City HurricaneProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

Tropical Storm Irene over New York City, August 28, 2011Tropical Storm Irene over New York City, August 28, 2011

South Ferry station after Hurricane Sandy; damage: $600 millionSouth Ferry station after Hurricane Sandy; damage: $600 million

Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. on Oct. 30, 2012, after Hurricane Sandy.Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. on Oct. 30, 2012, after Hurricane Sandy.

New York's LaGuardia Airport after the New York's LaGuardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easterNovember 25, 1950 Nor'easter

June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River DeltaJune 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

4) California ARkSTORM Flood4) California ARkSTORM FloodProbability: 20%Probability: 20%4) California ARkSTORM Flood4) California ARkSTORM FloodProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

3) U.S. Drought3) U.S. DroughtProbability: 50%Probability: 50%

Midwest U.S. drought, 2012: $35 billion in damageMidwest U.S. drought, 2012: $35 billion in damage

2012 Drought: 123 killed, $35+ billion in damage

1988 Drought: 7,500 killed, $71 billion in damage

Dust Bowl Drought: 5,000 killed, 2.5 million people displaced

The future of drought, 30 years from now?

Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal waterOld River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water

2) Mississippi River Changes Course2) Mississippi River Changes CourseProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

Interruption of Mississippi barge traffic to the nation's 1st, 6th, 11th, Interruption of Mississippi barge traffic to the nation's 1st, 6th, 11th, and 14th busiest ports: $300 million per day.and 14th busiest ports: $300 million per day.

Loss of 60% of U.S. grain exports. Loss of 60% of U.S. grain exports.

Interruption of 57 million tons per year of crude oil, chemicals, steel, Interruption of 57 million tons per year of crude oil, chemicals, steel, concrete, fertilizers, rubber, plywood, etc. moving upriver. concrete, fertilizers, rubber, plywood, etc. moving upriver.

Inundation of 11% of Louisiana. Likely destruction of Morgan City Inundation of 11% of Louisiana. Likely destruction of Morgan City (population 12,000) (population 12,000)

No fresh water for: No fresh water for: - One million people, including all of New Orleans - One million people, including all of New Orleans - Oil refineries that supply 14% of U.S. oil - Oil refineries that supply 14% of U.S. oil - Natural gas refineries that produce over 20% of U.S. natural gas - Natural gas refineries that produce over 20% of U.S. natural gas - Petrochemical plants supplying over 20% of U.S. petrochemicals- Petrochemical plants supplying over 20% of U.S. petrochemicals

Costs of Mississippi River changing courseCosts of Mississippi River changing course

1) Volcanic or Nuclear Winter1) Volcanic or Nuclear WinterProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

Mt. Pinatubo eruption, June 15, 1991, PhilippinesMt. Pinatubo eruption, June 15, 1991, Philippines

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Thanks for listening!Thanks for listening!