S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009 The future of solar electricity (Photovoltaics) Stanislaw M. PIETRUSZKO Stanislaw M. PIETRUSZKO Centre for Photovoltaics Centre for Photovoltaics Warsaw University of Technology Warsaw University of Technology
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S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
The future of solar electricity (Photovoltaics)
Stanislaw M. PIETRUSZKOStanislaw M. PIETRUSZKO
Centre for PhotovoltaicsCentre for Photovoltaics
Warsaw University of TechnologyWarsaw University of Technology
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
Responsible energy policy for thefuture
Renewable energy sources with an efficient and rational use of energy are capable of:
• preserving resources,
• ensuring security and diversity of energy supply,
• providing energy services, virtually without anyenvironmental impact.
RES are well distributed and decentralised.
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
Why Photovoltaics?
• Direct conversion of sunlight to electricity
• No pollution
• No noise
• Wide range of applications (off- and on grid, BIPV)
• Modularity
• Helpful in disasters
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
2008 – 85%
2007 – 70%
2006 – 40%
2005 – 45%
2004 – 60%
2003 - 32%
2002 - 44%
2001 - 36%
2000 - 43%
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
World Cell Production Shares per region (MW)
in 2008 (2007)
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
• Renewable energy– wind 4 - 12– water 2 - 8– biomass 5 – 9– solar thermal 12 - 18– Solar electricity (PV) 25 - 65
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
SOLAR ELECTRICITY
• PV is positioned to meet the critical energy-sector demands world-wide in the coming decades.
• The cost of photovoltaic (PV) electricity:
– too high for bulk power production in utility grids
– cost-effective for peak power applications and local grid support
• Important natural market in the world-wide off-grid applications
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
24h-Energy Profile
0:00
6:00
12:0
0
18:0
0
24:0
0
Ele
ctric
al E
nerg
y [a
rb. u
nits
]
Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff
Electricity supplied by Utility
Fed-InEnergy
Solar Energy
Energy consumption of building
Electricity supplied by Utility
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
Summer
Winter
Standard20,64
6,35
26,78
21,42
31,92
30
10
20
¥/kWh
hours1260 2418
Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005
winter
summer
$ct/kWh
hours
60
20
0
40
0 6 12 18 24
Range of Electricity Prices in California (data from Alison Hyde, BSW)
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
PV Competitiveness
Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH
Photovoltaics
Utility peak power
Bulk power
ElectricityGeneratingCost for PVand utilityprices
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
€/kWh
900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh
1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
Value of PV kWhs
• PV solar electricity systems provide– decentralized kWhs at point of use– good integration in future Smart Electricity Networks– excellent correlation with high prices at peak hours in
summer and afternoons
• Value of PV kWhs is not correlated with– avoided fuel costs for power stations– cost and price of bulk power electricity
• … but well correlated with – peak hour prices in liberalized markets (higher cost for
Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)
>10 2 1 0.5 0.25
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
Grid parity in Europe – 2007(lines to guide the eye)
insolation map : Šúri M., Huld T.A., Dunlop E.D. Ossenbrink H.A., 2007. Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union member states and candidate countries. Solar Energy (in press), http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.50
1000 0.30
1400 0.21
1800 0.17
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.50
1000 0.30
1400 0.21
1800 0.17
Grid parity in Europe – 2010(lines to guide the eye)
S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009