The Future of SLOC Security in Asia · The Future of SLOC Security in Asia The 39th Annual COLP Conference . Shanghai, China, June 24-26, 2015. Ki-Joo Kim . Korea National Defense

The Future of SLOC Security in Asia

The 39th Annual COLP Conference Shanghai, China, June 24-26, 2015

Ki-Joo Kim Korea National Defense University

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CONTENTS

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Introduction

Importance of SLOC Security

Challenges to SLOC Security

Policy Options & Conclusion

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Introduction

Issue & Research Goal

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The Issue The environment for SLOC security becomes worse as maritime security order in Asia proceeds to unstable and uncertain situation. The question of dealing with SLOC security is a significant agenda in the region.

Research Goal To evaluate and prospect SLOC security in Asia. To suggest possible policy options to improve SLOC security in Asia.

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Importance of SLOC Security

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Global Economy & SLOC

“The growth of sea power in the broad sense, which includes not only the military strength afloat, that rules the sea or any part of it by force of arms, but also the peaceful commerce and shipping from which alone a military fleet natural ly and healthful ly spr ings, and on which i t secure ly rests .”

Alfred T. Mahan(1840-1914)

The Influence of Sea Power Upon History(1660-1783)

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Global Economy & SLOC

☞ Seaborne Trade : 90% of World Trade

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Global Economy & SLOC

Source : UNCTAD, REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2014, p. 3, p. 5.

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Global Economy & SLOC

Source : Lloyd’s Register et al., Global Marine Trends 2030 p. 28.

9 billion tons(2010) 24 billion tons(2030)

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Global Economy & SLOC

Source : UNCTAD, REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2014, p. 7, p. 68.

Asia ≒ 50%

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Global Economy & SLOC

World Oil Consumption(2013)

Asia-Pacific 33%

North America 24%

Europe 16%

Latin America 10%

Middle East 9%

Russia and Central Asia 4%

Africa 4%

The World Top 10 Oil Consumers(2013)

1. US 21.1% 6. Brazil 3.4%

2. China 11.1% 7. Saudi Arabia 3.3%

3. Japan 5.0% 8. Germany 2.6%

4. Russia 3.8% 9. South Korea 2.5%

5. India 3.7% 10. Canada 2.5%

Source : eni, World Oil and Gas Review 2014, pp. 20-21.

China, Vietnam, India, Indonesia ☞ The countries with the largest growth in per capita GDP in 2030 by Global Marine Trends 2030

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Asia’s Critical SLOC

Strait of Bab el-Mandab

Taiwan Strait

Asia’s Critical SLOC

Strait of Hormuz

Korea Strait

Luzon Strait

Tsugaru Strait

Strait of Malacca

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Maritime Oil Chokepoints

Source : eia, World Oil Transit Chokepoints 2014, p. 2.

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Challenges to SLOC Security

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Is Asia’s Critical SLOC Safe?

Strait of Bab el-Mandab

Taiwan Strait

Asia’s Critical SLOC

Strait of Hormuz

Korea Strait

Luzon Strait

Tsugaru Strait

Strait of Malacca

Piracy

Piracy Territorial

Dispute

Territorial Dispute

Taiwan Crisis

Korean Crisis

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Threats to Asia’s Critical SLOC

SLOC Major Threats Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Bab el-Mandab Middle East Tension

Piracy

Strait of Malacca Piracy

South China Sea Territorial Dispute Piracy

East China Sea Taiwan/Luzon Strait

PRC-ROC Tension Territorial Dispute

Korean Strait ROK-DPRK Tension

Economic Recession → Declining Naval Power + Decreasing Influence

Economic Growth → Rising Naval Power + Increasing Influence

Strategic Competition in Asia

Economic Restoration → Rising Naval Power + Increasing US-Japan Alliance

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Waning US Maritime Hegemony?

Source : CRS, Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans(2015), p. 50.

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Rising China as a Maritime Power?

Source : CRS, China Naval Modernization(2015), p. 42.

China(313~342) > US(304~308)

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Rising China as a Maritime Power?

Source : Chinadialogue, April 17, 2015.

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Rising China as a Maritime Power?

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Territorial Disputes in Asia

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Piracy & Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia

Source : ReCAAP, Annual Report on Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in Asia 2014, p. 10. ICC-IMB, Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in 2014, p. 6.

22% Increase in 2014 68% Attacks in Asia

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Policy Options & Conclusion

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Policy Options

① Cooperation rather than Competition or Conflict

√ Strategic Cooperation between US and China √ Principle of Freedom of Navigation √ No Competition for Control of SLOCs √ No Naval Arms Race

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Policy Options

② Peaceful Settlement of Territorial Disputes

√ Political Dialogue among States √ No Offensive Foreign Policy √ No Military Engagement

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Policy Options

③ Regional Cooperation for Anti-Piracy Activities

√ Remove Root Causes for Piracy √ Multilateral Naval Cooperation √ Capacity Building

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Concluding Remarks

√ Global and regional cooperation for SLOC security is necessary. √ The safe, secured, and uninterrupted sea routes are critical to economic prosperity of Asian countries. √ SLOC is not the possession of anyone country, but the common goods of international community.

Thank you!

“The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect those of the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Korea and the Korea National Defense University”

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