The Future of Project Management 1

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CHAPTER 22

THE FUTURE OF PROJECTMANAGEMENT 1

The future aint what it used to be.YOGI BERRA

22.1 INTRODUCTION

Josh Billings once said: Dont ever prophesy: for if you prophesy wrong, nobodywill forget it; and if you prophesy right, nobody will remember it. With thesewords in mind, it takes a certain amount of intellectual courage and emotional

recklessness to make predictions about the future of project management.As the authors were finishing writing this chapter, the horrific events of September

11, 2001, had happenedterrorists struck a devastating blow to America bycrashing two airplanes into the World Trade Center towers in New York City, crash-ing an airplane into the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., and causing a fourth airplaneto crash in southwestern Pennsylvania. This unprecedented attack on the Americanpeople changes the future of U.S. citizens and their guests in America as perhaps noother event could.

22.2 RECENT DISASTER SHAPES THE FUTURE

The authors envision that the events of September 11, 2001, will bring out thelatent talents of Americans and recovery will be accomplished, for the most part,through projects. Projects can be used to address the challenges facing peopleeverywhere. Such areas as (1) removal of debris at the crash sites, (2) rebuildingof damaged or destroyed facilities, (2) relocation of services from the crash sites,(3) investigations of terrorist activities, (4) changes in laws regarding civil liberties,(5) changes to airport security, and (6) changes to emergency response practicesare candidates for the use of project management practices.

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1This chapter is an extension of David I. Cleland, The Strategic Pathway of Project Management, Proceedings,Project Management Institute, 28th Annual Seminar/Symposium, Chicago, September 27October 2, 1996.

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Today, many people are making predictions about how the world has beenchanged by these events. Some of these predictions may be correctbut in allprobability a limited number of these predictions will not come about. Given theintellectual liability that authors assume in writing this chapter, we choose to press

on. Perhaps some of our predictions will be correct!This chapter starts with a review of some of the past influences and some of theprobable general future trends likely to impact project management. The authorsattempt to answer the question: What does it mean? Then the chapter makes somepredictions about the future of project management, and includes how managementphilosophies might change in the future. The growth of the Project ManagementInstitute in recent years, the likely continued increase in megaprojects, and someadditional project management changes are noted. As readers peruse this chapter,the authors would like everyone to think about the question: What is beyond projectmanagement?

In considering this question it would be useful to remember that project manage-ment evolved from the theory and practice of general management. As the disciplineof project management continues to grow toward maturity, it is quite probable that newmeanings, new ideas, changed concepts, enhanced philosophies, and improved man-agement processes will develop. All of this could cause, at some future time, a newfocus in management that just might replace project management as we know it today.

22.3 THE PRACTICE OF PROJECT

MANAGEMENT

The practice of project management has been with us for a long time. This disci-pline and its evolution as a profession are described elsewhere in this book. Today,project management has reached a maturity that entitles it to a rightful place in thepractice and the literature of the management field. Its application has spread tomany nontraditional uses as it continues to be one of the principal means bywhich operational and strategic changes are managed in the enterprise. Pinto notedthat the importance of project management for organizational success willexpand rather than wane in the years to come. 2

In this chapter some of the recent major changes in the management field are pre-sented, along with a summary of the key contributions that have been made by pro-

ject and team management in recent times. From that summary, a few predictions willbe made concerning the likely nature of project and team management in the future.

22.4 PAST AND CURRENT INFLUENCES

In considering the future of project management, an examination of some of the majorforces in the field of the management discipline in the past should be considered.

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2Jeffrey K. Pinto, (ed.), The Future of Project Management, chap. 25 in The Project Management InstituteProject Management Handbook (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1998).

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In the last 10 to 20 years, there have been major forces that have impacted thetheory and practice of management. A summary of these forces follows:

Product and service life cycles are becoming shorter, impacting how companies

compete in the global marketplace. A growing realization that as new or improved technology is integrated into

products and services, the organizational processes to support such technologyhave to be improved as well.

An increasing trend in the use of alternative team organizational designs to copewith the need for the integration of interfunctional and interorganizational activ-ities to support product, service, and process development.

Downsizing and restructuring of organizations to improve efficiency and effec-tiveness, which has resulted in the elimination and shifting of managerial andprofessional positions.

Growing realization that the persons doing the work know the most about how thatwork should be done, and through enhanced participation of these individuals onalternative teams, improved organizational performance has been sustained.

Computer and telecommunications technology has made remarkable progressin the use and management of information and has helped increase enterpriseproductivity.

The relative roles of managers and leaders have come under scrutiny and rede-

finition, with the use of alternative teams enhancing the opportunities for morepeople to move into managerial and leadership positions than previously could. More emphasis is being placed on the interpersonal capabilities of executives,

with the role of traditional first-level supervisors changing from a traditionalboss to a facilitator, coach, mentor, counselor, coordinator, and oversight personin obtaining and using resources in the enterprise.

Global competition has become the name of the game for the survivability andgrowth of industrial enterprises. The surge in demand for products and services indeveloping countries, as well as the need for infrastructure improvement through-

out the world, has influenced the demand for project management services. Customers and suppliers are taking more active roles in the design and execu-

tion of enterprise strategies, even to the point of serving on new and improvedproduct and service design and development teams.

Collective bargaining and unionism are becoming more sophisticated to include thepresence of union leaders and members on the alternative teams of the enterprise.

The maturation of a philosophy of strategic management of the enterprisethemanagement of the enterprise as if its future matteredis reflected in more proac-tive strategic planning and execution strategies in contemporary enterprises.

Engineering and other technologies appear to be doubling every few years, withinnovators in such technologies arising from many places in the global environment.

The growing success of the application of project management in the managingof operational and strategic change.

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A broader application of project management processes and techniques beyondthe traditional construction and defense industriesexpressed in reengineering,benchmarking, concurrent engineering, and self-managed production initiatives,to name a few.

Growing influences of enterprise and project stakeholders as legitimateclaimants of those things of value being created by the enterprise, including anincreased membership of such stakeholders on project and alternative teams inthe enterprise.

Traditional jobs are being modified and lost in todays organizations, and similarlosses will likely continue in the future. Bank tellers, secretaries, administrativetypists, factory workers who do rote assembly work, and service station attendants,to name a few, are those whose jobs are being changed or lost.

Robert Reich, secretary of labor under President Clinton, argues that businessesmust stay competitive in an unprecedented mannerand must constantly inno-vate, compete on razor-thin margins, and operate around-the-clock to stem com-petition from the global marketplace. 3

In the material that follows, a few general predictions of what the future holdswill be given. These predictions will, in general, be presented within the context of a systems framework: political systems, economic systems, social systems, legal sys-tems, and technological systems.

22.5 SOME GENERAL FUTURE TRENDS

Before becoming too enamored with trying to predict the future, we must revisitPeter Druckers caution about trying to do so. He cautions about organizationsbecoming too fascinated with the future, and makes the argument that organizationsthat forecast and make strategic decisions about the future are unlikely to succeedin the long term. 4

Those futurists and other people who spend most of their time making predic-

tions about likely trends and events of the future have missed some of the majorchanges that impact societies of the world. Who was able to predict the outbreak of AIDS, the rapid collapse of world communism, and the strong movement of drastic corporate restructuring in the United States? How many forecasters wereable to see the rapid technological change and the growing experimentation in theway enterprises are organized and managed? How many stock market analystsenvisioned the perceptible decline of high-tech stocks in 2001?

Not many were able to anticipate the growing influence of cooperative andlong-term relationships between companies and their various stakeholders. And,in the field of project management, only a few visionaries sensed the change thatthe use of project teams would have on the structure and management style used

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3Robert B. Reich, The Future of Success (Random Audio Books, 2001).4Peter Drucker, Planning for Uncertainty, The Wall Street Journal, July 22, 1999, p. A12.





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by contemporary organizations, and the growing use of alternative teams in themanagement of operational and strategic change in the enterprise. But, given ourmodest capabilities in predicting the future, we keep trying.

22.6 CHANGING MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHIES

Firms today, throughout the world, are attempting major shifts in their managementphilosophies through reengineering and restructuring of their organizations. Firmshave restructured their organizational design and have introduced the use of alterna-tive teams to focus more on core operations by eliminating unrelated operations,improving organizational processes, downsizing, flattening their organizational hier-archies, and developing strategies to commercialize their products sooner and reducetheir manufacturing cycle time. Continuous improvement of products, services, andorganizational processes dominated the strategy of many of the premier firms of the1980s and 1990s. Major changes in manufacturing include a departure from massproduction strategies to lean manufacturing where flexibility, rapid responses, andimproved human resources practices, product development strategies, manufacturingmethods, supplier and customer relations, and management methods are practiced.

22.7 DISTRIBUTION CHANGES

Channels of distribution of products and services are likely to change significantly.Witness the past emergence of large discount chains, the evolution of telemarketing,and the changes already under way in the manner in which automobiles arepurchased. Retailers are continuing their trend to fewer frills, more warehousestores, and fewer face-to-face interactions with salespersons. Smaller retailers willcontinue to be threatened and are being replaced by large discounters, where personalselling has declined and purchasers find what they want from large displays of prod-

ucts. The need for better product distribution has helped motivate the rise of integrated logistic support initiatives in the business community.

22.8 INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS

Rich and emerging nations are becoming more aware of the need to revalue andupdate their infrastructures. In Asia, the flow of people into the cities continues, withpredictions that approximately 1.5 billion people will be added to the urban centers

of Asia in the next 10 years. Radical solutions and innovations are needed in a focusof project management to improve the infrastructure of these areas. China alone isexpected to spend something over $200 billion in the next few years on infrastruc-ture development. Other emerging nations are not far behind this rate of spending.






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Transportation

The shifting focus of economic opportunities in the Far East will make air trans-portation and air cargo product distribution key considerations in the development

of infrastructure to support these initiatives.

Strategic Partnering

Strategic alliances and joint ventures will continue to become more common as com-panies learn about the advantages of cooperation. Established western companieswill form alliances with competitive Asian firms, whose home marketing cloutcannot be ignored.

Population Growth

Of all the challenges facing global society today, the growing population of theworld is sowing seeds for future opportunities and problems. Demand increases forsupporting infrastructures, more food, more medical systems, more of everything.

Today, it is not uncommon to hear of famine and deprivation in Africa, LatinAmerica, and Asia. The predictions of Thomas Malthus of the excess of populationover available resources may become a reality. Thomas Malthus (17601834), anEnglish economist and demographer, is probably best known for his concept thatthe population will increase in geometrical progression, whereas the means of subsistence will increase at only an arithmetical progression.

He said that population will always expand to the limit of subsistence and be heldthere by famine, war, and ill health. He may yet be recognized for his clairvoyancemany places in the world today cannot produce enough food for their citi-zenryand there is not enough transportation capability to get the food to the peoplethat need it. Millions of human beings are likely to have a subsistence existence.

Technology ChangesIn the twentieth century, awesome changes have occurred in technology. There islittle reason to expect that rate of change to slow down in the next century. Indeed,it may very well accelerate. What will be the outcome of the miniaturization of computers, the outcome of telecommunications via satellites, and what about theadvances in optical transmission technologies? Will biotechnology fulfill itspromises? What will be the impact of ceramics on the design of engines of thefuture? What additional changes will come about in manufacturing, where todaythere is a strong movement from mass production to lean manufacturing strategies?

The linking of computers from the design laboratory through to the productionfloor of the factories hasand will likely continue to haveenormous implica-tions for global manufacturing competitiveness, the work force, and flexibility inproducing goods to order, reducing the need for warehouses. The practical

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promise of solar energy and electric batteries continues to evade usbut what willthe future bring in these technologies? The information highway, and its promisesand threats, has caught the attention of futurists around the globe.

Diverse Work Force

A growing, diverse work force greater than we have today, with more women andso-called minorities, will increasingly represent the work force of the future.Training and retraining initiatives will become a way of life in the enterprises of thefuture. Diversity in the work force will parallel the changes impacting the mannerand style in which organizations are managed today, with additional changes comingin the future as we grapple with the means of improving productivity through people,as well as through capital equipment such as robotic systems, information systems,and alternative organizational designs. Our ability to develop and implement newmanagerial paradigms will be a principal test of whether or not the enterprisesurvives. Strategic managementthe management of the enterprise as if its futurematteredwill become the principal game to play in managing the organizations of the future. Changing organizational cultures to provide for more employee participa-tion, empowerment, and higher motivation through transitory membership on alter-native teams is a major challenge facing todays managersa challenge that willcertainly continue in the future. The key question facing all managers throughout theglobe is clear: Will the company have the management systems and culture to move

forward against the unforgiving global competition in the marketplace today?

People Skills

As we move away from the traditional command-and-control paradigm of man-agement suggested by Peter Drucker, interpersonal skills are becoming moreimportant. Seasoned managers realize that many of the skills required for successrevolve around the ability to communicate, the ability to work with people, thecompetency to negotiate, and the patience to listen. As the use of teams grows in

the management of change in contemporary and future organizations, peopleskills will continue to be one of the most important assets in the management styleof managers and professionals at all levels of the enterprise.

Political Discontinuities

Without question, the world is in a sea of constant discontinuities. Countries likeChina, Russia, and others are departing from their traditional roles. The restruc-turing of their economies, political changes, and the struggle to maintain social

equality in their citizenry are posing challenges of unprecedented balances in theutilization of resources. Over the next couple of decades the countries that bestresolve their political uncertainties and the optimum use of their resources will bethe winners. Others may well lose their existing power bases in the world.






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The cyber revolution will continue to change human life. We are likely to becomericher and better educated as we expand the use of computers in our work andprivate lives. Yet there is the probability that we will become lonelier and less healthyas we work more in isolation and neglect physical activity. People may socialize

less in order to spend more time in the make believe world of entertainment.

22.9 WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Throughout the changes impacting modern organizations one constant hasremained: Resistance to change in organizations most often comes from individualswho fear that change may bring losses to the organization and to themselves.Change usually creates winners and losers, although enlightened management can

deal with the change in such a way that a loss to individuals is reduced throughretraining, early retirement, placement assistance, and other strategies. Thoseorganizations that have undergone significant changes have gradually come to rec-ognize that successful change comes only with the commitment and cooperationof individuals in the working levels of the enterprise.

Some, if not all, of the trends that have been put forth in this chapter may nevercome about. This is unlikely. What is likely is that the political, social, economic,technological, and competitive changes in the future will be somewhat like whathas happened in the past, but some of those changes will be extraordinary and willpose challenges of major proportions, particularly in how the societies deal withthese changes. Part of successfully dealing with these changes will come from a

judicious use of a prescription of alternative teams in the management philosophyand style of those entitiesindustrial, military, governmental, social, or whateverthat have to deal with the changes as interested stakeholders.

Knowing of a pending change and having no management philosophy with whichto deal with that change can be terrifying. Muddling through will be an invitation tofailure. But an organized team of resources managed through a project managementsystems approach shows considerable promise as a way to cope with, and in theprocess influence, the effects of a change.

22.10 THE FUTURE OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT

One of the fascinating predictions about the future of project management was setforth by Stewart, who wrote, Project management is the wave of the future. 5

In considering the future of project management, first it will be necessary toreview some of the expected changes in our society that will, in some manner,

influence the theory and practice of project management. As changes in political,social, economic, competitive, legal, and technological systems occur, project

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5Tom Stewart, The Corporate Jungle Spawns a New Species: The Project Manager, Fortune, July 10, 1995,pp. 179180.





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management will likely be impacted, because project management provides theprincipal means by which such change is managed in todays and tomorrowsorganizations. For example, the promise of an improved or new technology in aplanned product or service requires the use of concurrent engineering teams to

simultaneously develop the new product, service, and supporting organizationalprocesses. A strategic plan that calls for the expansion of an enterprises manu-facturing capacity will require the appointment of a project team to conceptualize,design, construct, and arrange for the start of the plan. An enterprise that faces adownturn in the demand for its products and services, and must consider cuttingback its expenses, will require a reengineering team to examine its operation withan assessment of how well its organizational processes are being carried out, thebasic design of the organizational structure, and other means for improving itsoverall efficiency and effectiveness. Some of the project managementrelatedchanges follow.

Political Changes

Political changes foster the development and application of project managementstrategies. The sweeping political changes in the former Eastern European blocfostered the abandonment of many of the autocratic social and managementphilosophies of the communist-dominated countries in this bloc. Major changesin the infrastructure of the former communist countries and the need to design

and develop competitive business strategies, update plant and equipment, andimprove the managerial and professional skills of employees became critical.Project management, sometimes used in an informal process, helped these formercommunist countries move toward capitalistic and democratic societies.

Social Considerations

Bringing about major social changes in a country calls for the use of project man-agement. The push for affirmative action in the United States motivated executives

to develop proactive programs in their organizations to support equality in themanagement of personnel. Equality standards in U.S. colleges and universitiesprompted the need to develop projects and programs to ensure that such standardswere carried out in the hiring of faculty and in undergraduate and graduate studyprograms. Lawyers had to develop initiatives in their work to support the objectivesof affirmative action programs, as well as other state, local, and national legislationin the environmental area.

Competitive Alterations

Competitive changes have fostered increased interest on the part of companies inthe use of teams. In some cases, the benchmarking of their competitors has dis-closed the use of teams in the product and service strategies. Sometimes they havebenchmarked the best-in-the-industry performance and found that teams have been






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used as key elements in the strategy of these best performers. Nothing will catchthe attention of senior executives more quickly than to find out that they are beingdefeated in the marketplace by a competitor. Finding out that a competitor is outper-forming a company in the marketplace will motivate the executives to find out why

the competitors have been able to do so much better. For example, when Xeroxfound out that Japanese companies were selling their copiers for what it costXerox to manufacture its copiers, an immediate investigation was conductedby Xerox to determine the reason. Xerox found that the use of concurrent engi-neering processes and techniques accounted for the difference. Xerox then initiatedconcurrent engineering in a forthright manner to reduce the time it took for themto develop their copierssubsequently becoming able to compete with theJapanese competitors.

Modification of Project Management Practices

Project management, as we know it today, will likely change in the future.Advances in communication through computer technology, the integrated voicedata and imaging techniques, and the Internet will provide higher levels of abilityto communicate. The growing ability to exchange information on a global basis willhelp foster a different world of project management. The ability to use technologyfor gathering, analyzing, and interpreting data should provide more opportunityfor the improvement of the processes and techniques involved in managing projects.

With the help of such technologies the typical project manager should have moretime to deal with the human element in the management of projectsand thisasset will become more valuable in the future world. Continued refinement andimprovement of the tools of project management, principally by way of schedule andcost management, will reduce the amount of time that the typical project managerwill spend on these things.

Future project managers will focus more on the people who are responsible forexecuting the project, including greater time with all of the stakeholders as theirinfluence in the project affairs is likely to increase, facilitated by the increasing

availability of information about the project.

Project Management Research

A few years ago the Project Management Institute launched an initiative to determinethe need for project-related research in the field. Through a team of PMI notablesa development effort was organized and developed to study and make recom-mendations concerning the need for research in the project management field. As aresult of the deliberations of this team, researchers were funded to pursue a

variety of research topics in order to advance the state-of-the-art of the discipline.The first major contribution of this research initiative was a conference heldduring June 2000, in Paris, France. This conference, titled Project ManagementResearch at the Turn of the Millennium ( Proceedings, PMI Research 2000, Paris,France, June 2124, 2000), attracted over 350 people from 27 countries. Fifteen

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invited and 30 contributed papers reported on a wide variety of different projectmanagement issues. Another conference to review research in the project man-agement field will be held July 2002 in Seattle, Washington. The reader whowishes to learn more about PMIs research strategy should look at the PMI web-

site at www.pmi.org.In 1999, the Project Management Institute commissioned a study to evaluate

the future of project management. This study was sponsored by the 1998 PMIResearch Program team and included garnered input from PMI members,reviewed PMI reports, and publications, and through thoughtful consideration of the forces at work involving project management came up with a first of its kindreport. A paraphrasing of the major conclusions of this study follows:

The nature of project teams is changing dramatically, and the work of suchteams is becoming more complex. 6

Project management is evolving into a profession. There is growing evidence of rapid participation in the project management

profession. Attention to the people and interpersonal aspects of the practice of project man-

agement is increasing. The complexity of the project management profession is putting increased

demands on those people who work on project teams.

Nontraditional Projects 7

In the last 10 years project management has moved rapidly out of its traditionalredoubts and is moving from a specialty strategy into a central task of managementfor the process of managing product, service, and organizational process change.Project managements original application was principally in construction andDepartment of Defense projects. As it demonstrated its ability to provide a processand techniques for pulling together cross-functional and cross-organizationalactivities, organizations began experimenting with the use of teams to deal withother applications. As these applications grew in importance and use, projectmanagement and its success in the use of teams extended the use of project manage-ment techniques to other areas of the enterprise, such as:

Reengineering applications teams used to bring about a fundamental rethinkingand radical redesign of business processes to achieve extraordinary improve-ments in organizational efficiency.

Concurrent engineering applicationsconcurrent product, service, and organi-zational process development teams to develop, produce, and market products

and services earlier, of a higher quality, and at a lower cost.


6The Future of Project Management, published by the Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, Pa., 1999.7The reader will doubtless note that the terms in this subsection are discussed more fully in Chapter 21. The summary

given here is meant to place them in the context of current and future changes in project management.





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Benchmarking initiativesusing teams to measure organizational products,services, and processes against the most formidable competitors and industryleaders to use as performance standards for the enterprise.

Development of new business opportunities using teams to explore, design,develop, and execute new ventures for the enterprise.

Total quality management initiatives accomplished through the use of teamsthat utilize cross-functional organizational designs to integrate enterprise qual-ity improvement strategies.

Improved quality and productivity in manufacturing and production operationsthrough the use of self-managed production teams.

22.11 MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY MODIFICATIONS

One of the major contributions of project management, and alternative team man-agement during the 1980s and 1990s, has been a modification to the managementdiscipline. These modifications have changed management philosophies, processes,and techniques and the performance standards by which an enterprises efficacycan be judged. These modifications and their likely continuation include:

Acceptance and virtual institutionalization of the matrix organizationaldesign. In such acceptance, the use of project teams overlaid on the traditionalorganizational structure has become simply the way we do things around herein the project- and team-driven enterprise entity. This acceptance will continuein the future, with the potential of leading to the gradual disappearance of thematrix organizational design as a distinct entity as it is further amalgamatedinto the culture of enterprises.

Acceptance of the singularity and importance of project planning as a means fordetermining the resources requiredand how these resources will be usedduring the life cycle of the project. In the future, project planning will gain in

importance as the means for identifying and committing resources to deal withoperational and strategic change in the enterprise.

New organizational design initiatives will be assessed as a means for enhancingthe use of a focal point for product, service, and organizational process change.The virtual organization, further extension of the matrix design to deal with amore active participation of project stakeholders, and the means for the extem-poraneous emergence of formal and informal teams in the organization will dealwith the pressures of change coming from competitive and environmentalsources. Ad hoc teams, both formal and informal, will become more of a way of

life in the enterprises of the future. Organizational members have found that the opportunities for their growing

participation in both the operational and strategic initiatives of the enterprisehave heightened their role in decision making in the enterprise. This has led to

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an enhancement of their feelings of belonging and contributing to the organization.Through having growing opportunities for participation in the affairs of the enter-prise, people are motivated to share in the results and rewards of the enterprise.

In the late 1980s and the 1990s, the growing use of teams has opened broadenedopportunities for workers to perform managerial and leadership functions as theywork on operational and strategic teams in the enterprise. As workers have partic-ipated on these teams, their appreciation of the challenges facing organizationalmanagers and leaders has increased, leading to greater support of such managersand leadersand a growing desire of workers to become more proactive in theopportunities to carry out managerial and leadership activities in the spheres of work. In the future these trends will continue, with a growing base of people inthe enterprise who can perform managerial and leadership roles.

Managerial control systems in the 1980s to the present time have grown in impor-

tance and in sophistication. Yet the role of individuals to monitor, evaluate, andcontrol their personal work in the enterprise has never been more importantand pronounced. As individuals have served on the various teams available to theenterprise, there has been a growing recognition on the part of these individualsthat self-control is important and is a major and effective way to ensurethat the planned use of resources is consistent with organizational goals andobjectives.

The growing use of teams in the 1980s to the present time has brought the man-agement of stakeholders into greater play than in the past. The growing importance

of stakeholders to the destiny of the project and the enterprise has sharpened theawareness of the systems approach to the management of the project and theenterprise. A philosophy has developed in contemporary managers and leadersthat everything is related to everything else. Accordingly, the making and execu-tion of decisions are being done more and more with an awareness of the likelysystem reverberations of the use of resources in both the operational and thestrategic sense, to include an assessment of the growing influence of stakeholders.This trend will continue in the future and will likely stimulate the emergence of models and paradigms on how such systems considerations can be melded

into the design and execution of decisions by future project managers. In recent years there have been new applications of project management,

reflecting its use in a wide variety of different industries and organizations.Today, industrial, educational, military, social, governmental, and ecclesiasticalorganizations use project management to varying degrees. This trend will continuein the future, as the recognition that project management is an effective meansof dealing with change grows among more managers, leaders, commanders,administrators, and ministry and lay people who see project management for whatit is: a means for dealing with operational and strategic change in the enterprise.

The concept and process of strategic management of the enterprise gainedacceptance in the late 1980s and 1990s. An important part of strategic manage-ment is the process of strategic planning, whose objective is to develop a senseof direction and acceleration for the enterprise in its future. The growing use of






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a philosophy of strategic management of the enterprise has been accompa-nied by growing use of project management and alternative team managementas means for dealing with the environmental and competitive changes that faceall organizational entities today. Strategic planning teams have been used success-

fully by modern enterprises to facilitate the strategic planning process. Thistrend will likely continue, stimulated in part because the growing competitivenessin product and service change is becoming more the performance standard in theglobal marketplace.

22.12 INCREASE IN MEGAPROJECTS

A megaproject is defined as one that has the following characteristics: (1) extraordi-

nary financing from both private and public sources; (2) major political, economic,and environmental considerationsboth during its design and engineering and con-struction phases as well as when the project results become operational; (3) ongoinginvolvement by knowledgeable stakeholders from political, intervenor, finan-cial, economic, and user communities; (4) major systems planning and controlchallenges; (5) likely intense scrutiny by stakeholders to include media and localcommunity interests; and (6) projects that deal with the likely shortages of water,energy, and transportation resources.

An example of a current megaproject keynotes some of the major systems

challenges that these projects face. Bechtel was responsible for planning, designing,engineering, procurement, right-of-way acquisition, and construction of a secondgas pipeline which extends 875 miles from Canada into central California, with acost of approximately $1.6 billion, including a new compressor station and retro-fitting of 17 other compressor stations and 3 major meter stations. The new pipelineparallels the first line that was built in the early 1960s. Concern about a wide rangeof environmental factors was paramount throughout the pipeline expansion. Carefulplanning by Bechtel resulted in the development of extensive safeguarding of envi-ronmental factors on the pipeline. Certain measures dealt with the control of erosion,noxious weeds, hazardous material, and construction noise, as well as extensivetraining for all personnel on environmental awareness and work practices. 8

Concerning the growing increase in megaprojects:

The demand for megaprojects for the improvement of infrastructures in theworld will continue to accelerate. This demand is particularly strong in theemerging nations in the world. Much of this demand will center around majorpower, water, and transportation initiatives and health care, as well as socialreengineering projects.

Key stakeholders will continue to gain in their influence on the conceptualiza-tion, design, construction, and operation of megaprojects.

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8Gary Walker and John Myrick, Doubling a Pipeline, Civil Engineering, January 1994, pp. 5052.





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The financing of megaprojects will continue to become more critical, becausepublic funds are increasingly used to develop economic and social infrastructuresto help meet the growing needs of population increases, resource shortages,resource exploration and use, and increases in global standards of living.

22.13 OTHER PROJECT MANAGEMENT CHANGES

Continuing the influence that it has had in the past, project management will con-tinue to contribute to the further modification of traditional managementapproaches and vertical hierarchies in the organizations of the future.

Experience and competency in team management and leadership will becomemajor considerations in the selection and promotion of senior managers in thefuture. The opportunity to gain experience in the management and leadershipof teams will continue to broaden as teams grow in use in the organizations of the future.

The strategic and operational management of technology through projects willbecome a key pacing factor in the enterprises ability to offer new and improvedproducts and services supported by innovative organizational processes.

New products and services will be created at unprecedented rates in the futurethrough project management, with the ability to develop such products andservices in effective and efficient ways as a key competitive factor for existingenterprises and for new enterprises that will come forth as the relentless changesfoster the need for new products and services for the global marketplace.

As the use of project management and alternative team management grows, theneed for training in the concepts and processes of team management will alsoaccelerate. Universities and colleges will continue to recognize the need forundergraduate and graduate courses and research to advance the state of the artin the theory and practice of project and team management. The developingnations of the world will be particularly anxious to learn more about projectmanagement as a way to deal with the awesome changes that are facing them.

22.14 ADDITIONAL CHANGES

Some additional likely changes to project management in the future include:

Continued growth in the sophistication of software to be used in cost and scheduletracking, and further development of group software, which can be used to conductproject planning and review meetings even though the people are geographi-cally separated.






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Professional organizations representing the project management community willlikely continue to grow in membership. Alternative professional organizationsin the field of project management will likely emerge.

The growing extension of project management and alternative team managementwill continue to change the role of traditional managersmoving away from thetraditional command-and-control mode to a role that functions as counselors,consultants, coaches, teachers, and trainers.

Less attention will be given to the matrix organization in the literature asfuture organizations institutionalize the use of the matrix design in the managementof projects and other alternative team initiatives.

There will be a growing, closer link of project planning and strategic planningin the enterprise, as it becomes increasingly clear that project results are thepathway to the organizations future.

There will be limits to innovative changes in project cost and schedule tech-niques. The greatest opportunities for the improvement of project managementwill deal with human and organizational issues. Project monitoring, evaluation,and control will be assumed more by the members of the project team than byformal review and reporting procedures.

International issues over scarce resources having geopolitical origins will likelynot be reduced. The risk of armed conflict over the use of scarce resources suchas petroleum, food, water, and critical minerals will be present. Military projectswill be undertaken by the stronger nations of the world to contain these conflictsand work toward settlements that will have some compromise in the allocationof the worlds scarce resources.

Project managersand other managerswill have to become conversant withthe means for international competition and the marketing and development of products and services that will be appropriate for diverse markets and varyingcustomers throughout the world.

The technological advancements in computer technology and information sourcessuch as the Internet as applied to project management will continue to grow.

22.15 A TURNING POINT

We have just turned the corner on a new century, which invites speculation about whatour future will be like. Will the theory and practice of project management undergoas much change as we have seen in the last 50 years in this discipline? Will the futureof project management be another time of unprecedented fulfillment, or will it bebusiness as usual in this remarkable discipline that is still undergoing change in itstheoretical foundations, in its practice, and in its application? A more importantquestion is: How do we look at the future of project management? Will projectmanagement be the same game with little change in the way it is played? Or willproject management become a new game, with new concepts, processes, techniques,and applications?

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Project managementand its likely changeshas to be considered from theperspective of the major changes that have impacted our society in the past and inthe present. We are in the middle of major transformations cutting across our society,and the outcomes of these transformations are far from certain. Political, eco-

nomic, social, and technological changes are causing dislocations, and even today,Heraclituss thought that all is flux, nothing stays still, nothing endures butchange has relevancy.

Project managementand the use of alternative teamshas influenced andhas been influenced by the forces of change in todays world of management. Theinterdependency of these forces and the use of teams as elements of operationaland strategic change in todays organization will likely continue into the future.Traditional organizational structures are likely to undergo continued modificationas the use of teams and higher degrees of employee participation are likely to befound in the organizations of the future. Those authors who write the history of management for the late twentieth century and the first couple of decades after theturn of the century are likely to see that project management was one of the principalforces that influenced change in the theory and practice of management. What willbe the likely continued influence of project management and alternative teams inthe change of management theory and practice in the future?

One prediction about the future of project management can be made with littlerisk as to its likely outcome: That prediction is that the future promises manychanges cutting across all of societyin the entire world. Such political, social,economic, technological, and competitive changes will stimulate an already strong

demand for project management. Consequently, the demand for people who arecompetent to serve on project teams and who are able to manage the enterpriseusing project management as a key strategy in the management of operational andstrategic change will likely continue.

But throughout all of our thinking about the future of project management, weare reminded: Predicting the future is easy. Getting it right is the hard part. 9

22.16 TO SUMMARIZE

Some of the major points that have been expressed in this chapter include:

The future is important to all of us because we will be spending the rest of ourlives there.

The management discipline has experienced considerable change in the last50 years.

The project management discipline has emerged with considerable rapidity inthe last several decades. During this evolution it has changed in many ways.

Changes to this discipline are likely to continue in the future.


9Howard Frank, Director, Information Technology, Office of the Defense Advanced Research ProjectsAgency, Arlington, Va., quoted in Garry H. Anthes, Predicting the Future, Computer World, vol. 30, no. 23,June 3, 1996, p. 70.





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Project management and alternative team management have had major influ-ences in how contemporary organizations are able to deal with change in theirenvironment.

Although futurists and other prognosticators have been able to some degreeto predict future trends and events, some of the major changes in the political,social, economic, technological, and competitive areas have come as a surpriseto most of us.

Project management has an interlink with the future through its ability to pro-vide a management system and a philosophy for the management of operationaland strategic change in contemporary organizations.

Many of the changes likely to occur in the future will probably be a simpleextrapolation of what has happened in the past. Other changes could be of majorsignificance for which there is no past or present precedent.

Many changes to be expected in the future will have their roots in the changingworlds population, the diversity of the work force, and the demands of peoplefor a greater share of the economic benefits of their societies.

There will likely be increased emphasis on the interpersonal skills of managers andprofessionals. This need will be particularly important as project stakeholdersbecome more influential in the practice of project management in their domain.

Much of the future application of project management will occur in the emergingnations of the world.

There will be a growing interest in how best to manage megaprojects as emergingnations see the need to change their infrastructures.

A leading U.S. business magazine, Fortune, predicted, Project management isthe wave of the future.

The increasing interest in project management has been caused in part bymore frequent use of nontraditional teams in the management of contemporaryorganizations.

Membership in project management professional associations is increasing,particularly in the Project Management Institute, the flagship of such profes-sional organizations. This membership increase is likely to continue into the future.

Attention to the development of the theory and practice of megaprojects willlikely gain renewed interest in the future, as emerging nations see the need forsuch projects in order to provide higher standards of living to their citizenry.

The ability to lead projects and other team efforts will likely be a principal con-sideration in the promotability of managers in the future.

Project management will become a distinct career path in organizations of thefuture. A demonstrated track record in management of successful projects and

nontraditional projects will be a prerequisite for promotion to a senior manage-ment position in the enterprise of the future. The unanticipated changes of the future in the social, political, economic, tech-

nological, and competitive systems will likely bring about some changes in thetheory and practice of project management.

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But we should always be reminded that the prediction of the future is easy.Getting that prediction right is the hard part. It is even harder to provide the lead-ership of the enterprise to capitalize on that future.

22.17 ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION

The following additional sources of project management information may be usedto complement this chapters topic material. This material complements and expandson various concepts, practices, and the theory of project management as it relatesto areas covered here.

Elvin Isgrig, Developing Project Management Skills for the Future, chap. 22in David I. Cleland (ed.), Field Guide to Project Management (New York: VanNostrand Reinhold, 1997).

Seth Lubove, Destroying the Old Hierarchies, and Larry Martin and PaulaGreen, Gaining Project Acceptance, in David I. Cleland, Karen M. Bursic,Richard Puerzer, and Alberto Y. Vlasak, Project Management Casebook, ProjectManagement Institute (PMI). (First published in Forbes, June 3, 1996, pp. 6270and Civil Engineering, August 1995, pp. 5153.)

Project Management Research at the Turn of the Millennium, Proceedings,

PMI Research Conference 2000, Paris, France, June 2124, 2000. This conferencewas a first of its kind in the field of project management. Fifteen invitedpapers and 30 contributed papers were presented dealing with research initiativesof the past, present, and future. A reading of these proceedings, along with somereflective thinking, should provide valuable insight into what likely changes willoccur in the theory and practice of project management in the future.

Virginia Postrel, The Future and Its Enemies: The Growing Conflict over Creativity, Enterprise, and Progress (New York: Simon & Schuster TradePaperbacks, 1999). The author talks about the future of economic prosperity, tech-

nological progress, and cultural innovationand says that understanding theseforces depends upon embracing principles of choice and competition. Postrelreadily notes that we cannot manage tomorrow by acting today. This book is intel-lectually sweeping and reader-friendly. She argues that if we do not meet the futurein the proper spirit, we will miss its benefits, or be run over by it. This book willalso provoke one into thinking about the futureand how we can better prepare tomeet that future. As members of the project community read this book, they shouldask themselves the question, What is in this book that can help me to better under-stand the future of project management, and how to prepare for that future?

William J. Swanston and William C. Carney, Institutionalizing ProjectManagement: A Necessity for Project Management to Provide Value and Thrivein the Coming Century, Proceedings, 28th Annual Project ManagementInstitute, September 29October 1, 1997 Seminars/Symposium, Chicago, p. 530.This brief article deals with the subject of the institutionalization of project






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managementa subject that has received considerable attention in recent timeswhen the future of project management is presented. The authors state that suchinstitutionalization requires a dedicated long-term commitment by both theorganization and its project management community. When a project manage-

ment system is so converted, its value to the organization can have far-reachingimplications.

Jeffrey K. Pinto (ed.), The Future of Project Management, in The Project Management Institute Project Management Handbook (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1998). The author asks the question, What is the future of project man-agement? He then admits that we have no more prescient crystal ball than doothers. Pinto offers some suppositions based on our experience and the state of the world in which project management is found. He sees a bright future for theexpanding role of project management on a worldwide basis.

N. M. Barnes and S. H. Wearne, The Future for Project Management, International Journal of Project Management, vol. II, issue 3, 1993. The book in which this article appears presents a view of what major project manage-ment may be like in the future. An examination of 4th edition chaps. 2127presents the demands communities around the world may put upon groups of people who are capable of mounting and completing major projects. Factorslikely to be the basis of successful and unsuccessful projects are listed. It issuggested that experience and expertise in project risks will become recog-nized at higher and higher levels in business.

22.18 DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

1. On the basis of some of the general predictions of changes in the future, whatis your prediction of the future of project management? Of team management?

2. Select an industry and a few of the major products and services of that industry.What are some of the likely changes in those products and services caused bygenetic changes in the marketplace?

3. What have been some of the major changes in the theory and practice of themanagement discipline in the past 30 years? How has the project managementdiscipline been impacted by those changes?

4. What has been the cause of the role change of the traditional first-level boss orsupervisor? What further changes might be anticipated in this role in the future?

5. Discuss the implications of the statement: The future comes like a funeralgone by. (Edmund Gosse, 18491928, The White Throat. )

6. What is the important message in the quote: You can never plan the future

by the past? (Edmund Burke, 17291797, letter to a member of the NationalAssembly, 1791.)7. From the personal perspective of the reader, what are some of the likely

generic trends that may impact your future career and retirement?

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8. In this chapter, it was suggested that the root cause of major changes likely tohappen in the future could be traced to the probable increases in the worldspopulation. Discuss the rationale behind this statement.

9. What are some of the leading changes likely to impact project managementin the future? What forces and factors will cause these changes?

10. What is meant by the statement, In the last 10 years project management hasmoved out of its traditional redoubts?

11. What are some of the likely forces that will increase or decrease membership inthe existing project management professional organizations? What is the likeli-hood of new associations appearing in the field of project/team management?

12. Select a geographic area, such as the Far East, and identify some of the mega-projects that are likely to come forth in that area. Why are these megaprojects

coming forth? Be specific!

22.19 USER CHECKLIST

1. Is any attempt made by your organization to develop and implement a rigor-ous process to identify and predict some of the major future trends likely toimpact your company?

2. What are some of the likely specific future market changes that could impact

the existing products and services of your organization?3. Has anyone been designated a focal point in your organization to identify and

track the relevant environmental changes that could impact the well-beingof your enterprise? If such an individual has been appointed, how well has thatperson discharged his or her responsibility in this regard?

4. What is the means of translating expected future environmental trends intothe strategic planning process of your organization? If such a process exists,how effective is this process?

5. What future trends in global population will likely impact the demand foryour companys products and services?

6. The demand for the products and services of some companies is directlyimpacted by changes in the development of technology by competitors. Is thisthe case regarding your company? Why or why not?

7. What are some of the likely changes in your enterprise that will affect themanner in which project management is applied to the management of product,service, and organizational process change in your enterprise?

8. Do the general managers of your company understand the importance of

having an appreciation of project management as a means for managingchanges in the enterprise? Why or why not?9. Are there any areas in your company where the use of project management or

alternative team management would likely pay off? Why or why not?






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10. What are some of the summary strengths and weaknesses of the practice of project management in your enterprise? If there are such weaknesses, arestrategies being developed to rectify those weaknesses?

11. Does a process exist in your company to determine the strengths and weaknessesof competitors and the prediction of the likely trends in competitive performancein the future?

12. What are the major likely trends in project management presented in thischapter that will have the greatest impact on your enterprise?

22.20 PRINCIPLES OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT

1. There is unprecedented change facing all organizations today.2. Project management has impacted the evolution and practice of the manage-

ment discipline.3. The use of project teams, as well as nontraditional teams, has provided a

major means for contemporary organizations to deal with change in theircompetitive environments.

4. Project management will grow in importance throughout the world as ameans for dealing with change.

5. The strategic and operational management of technology through projectswill be a key pacing factor in the enterprises ability to offer new productsand services.

22.21 PROJECT MANAGEMENT SITUATION WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

Throughout history noted people have thought about the future, and have writtenor spoken some elegant words about the hereafter. A few of these thoughts areprovided below:

You can never plan the future by the past. (E DMUND BURKE)The best of prophets of the future is the past. (S IR WILLIAM HENRY MAULE)The Future comes like an unwelcome guest. (E DMUND GOSSE)I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate. (S IRARTHUR WING PINERO )

If we open a quarrel between the past and the present, we shall find that wehave lost the future. (W INSTON SPENCER CHURCHILL )The enemies of the Future are always the very nicest people. (C HRISTOPHERMORLEY)

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The Future of Project Management 1

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