#Mobility2030 [ ] Mobility 2030 The Future of Mobility Christoph Domke Director, KPMG Mobility 2030 Intelligent Mobility Conference 2017 November 2 nd 2017, Derby, UK
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
The Future of Mobility
Christoph Domke
Director, KPMG Mobility 2030
Intelligent Mobility Conference 2017November 2nd 2017, Derby, UK
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Alternative Powertrains
Three main disruptive forces will fundamentally transform how people and things move in the future
Mobility as a Service
Connected & Autonomous
Vehicles
Changing consumer and
societal demands
Mobility Value Chain
Collaboration in the future Mobility
Ecosystem
• Moving people
• Moving goods
The Future of Mobility
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
‘A day in the life of’ video
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
A key driver is consumers changing their view of mobility
Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017
Success of new mobility services are demonstrating consumers’ willingness to adopt
Moving my stuffMoving me
The one user – one car model is inefficient for mobility…
95%Time that most cars
sit idle each day
75%UK households that
own a car
101hrsTime spent by Londoners in
traffic, per year
£31bnCost of traffic delays to UK
motorists in 2016
... and ownership costs impact daily lives
Car ownership cost as % household costs
10%-20% c.60% Nearly 60% of 18-24 consumers in
the UK believe that car owners today will not want to own a car in
2025
33% The likelihood that a 17-20 year old will have a drivers
licence in 2015
Driving Licence
The Future of Mobility
© 2017 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Alternative
Powertrains
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Electric adoption in passenger cars will grow quickly through from the 2020s, impacting charging infrastructure needs
2020 2030 20402017
Forecast UK EV growth and expected charging infrastructure
Note: (a) Diagrams not drawn to scale. (b) Assumes a mix of public slow and rapid charging points for every EV; excludes home chargers Source(s): (1) KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis (2) IEA Global EV Outlook 2017, (3) EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive 2014 (4) ZapMap September 2017
13k80k
0.5m
1.7m
Anticipated charging infrastructure requirements(2,3)
(1 chargepoint required for every 10-15 EVs)
Potential disruptive impact of new charging tech (e.g inductive)
UK Passenger EV forecast (# cars, % of parc)
1m, 2%
5m, 14%
16m, 43%
0.1m, 0.2%
The Future of Mobility: Alternative powertrains
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
This journey will be complex and participants will need to ‘converge’ at multiple points…
Government/policy
Enough charging infra in right locations
Energy capacity constraints removed
Charging behaviours and Charging locations optimised
16 million EVsCharging infrastructure
Customer
OEMs
Retailers
Energy infrastructure
Smart grids & DSO transition
Technical standards defined
‘Smart’ (off peak) charging
Generation constraint addressed, if any
Hub charging and Intelligent charge point locating
Smart home solutions & energy as a service
Smart charging and flexible platforms
Smart metering
ToU tariffs & retail DSR
Cost parity
EV take-up increases
Range anxiety overcome
Govt campaigning, specification & incentivisation
Govt relaxation of regulatory constraints and free market solution
Government legislation
Enhanced charging and battery tech
G2V ‘switch’ embedded
Adequate nationwide public charging
infrastructure
V2G technology embedded
Societal change
Seamless customer experience
Storage and flexible tools embedded
Customer engaged
Increased public charging points
2
1 4
4
Key 2040 outcomes
3Infrastructure and network constraints managed
1
Dependency / activity
Convergence pointKey:
Source(s): KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis
The Future of Mobility: Alternative powertrains
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Global HGV alternative powertrain adoption –2015-2030(1)
Electric adoption in HGVs, will be limited as battery size impacts load, while rapid charging of large batteries will be difficult
Natural gas uptake will increase, driven by improvements in infrastructure and
the cost per mile saving vs. diesel
Diesel will continue to make up the largest proportion of HGV and MCV
sales, supplemented by hybrids
Source(s): (1) KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis based on KGP sales forecast data (compiled September 2017)
EV uptake will be strong in LCVs whilst there is no consensus on the winning alternative powertrain in HCVs
Note: UK natural gas will be later and slower, due to
infrastructure limitations
The Future of Mobility: Alternative powertrains
UK alternative powertrain adoption in LCVs – 2014-2040(1)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Alternative powertrain expected to be 66% of sales in
2030
UK Government target for 100% of
LCV sales to be alternative powertrain
by 2040(2)
TCO parity for electric
LCVs
Adoption prior to TCO parity driven
by policy enforcement and
early adopters
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Connected and
Autonomous
Vehicles
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
FMS / Open Architecture Software Platform
Digital freight brokerage Video safety solution
Prognostics Electronic logging device (ELD) mandate
Mobile trucking apps
– Open, customisable platform; customers choose services from marketplace
– Easy integration of other software
– Web platform addressing underutilised capacity, with instant load matching, live tracking etc.
– Reduces empty miles by 8-10%
– Integrating Video Event Recorders (VER) with telematics minimises impact of accidents and errors
– Fraud and theft protection etc.
– Standardisation encourages fleets to revisit value placed on telematics
– In 2020s, predictive analytics will replace factory-fit telematics
– Adoption expected due to fleet management system penetration
– In the US, driven by Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration rules
– Mainly driver-centric to encourage new drivers to market
– Wider integration of freight mobility, driver utility, fleet optimisation apps
Connectivity is already a key part of the commercial vehicle market and will continue to be a major growth area to 2030
The Future of Mobility: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
The driver cost-benefit and safety considerations will mean AV adoption in LCVs outpaces passenger cars
Notes: (a) Vehicle sales include cars and light commercial vehiclesSource(s): (1) KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Scenario Analysis – Stretch case
35%
Sh
are
of
sale
s (%
)
UK AV share of LCV sales (vs. passenger car share)(1)
2015 2020 2025 2030
– Driver cost-benefit resonates with fleet TCO focus (vs. irrational consumer behaviour)
– ‘Lumpy’ fleet procurement– Safety considerations a key
metric for businesses– Policy may drive adoption if
safety benefit proven– Forecast driver shortages– Less aesthetical concern
– Potential for union resistance
The Future of Mobility: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles
Given platooning trials, OEM investment and simpler highways, AV adoption in HGVs will also outpace passenger cars
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
‘Packstations’ / ‘Drop Boxes’
Source(s): KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis of public announcement
Urban Consolidation
Hubs
Drones
Self driving delivery robovansand larger AV containers with
AV pods, to deliver packages in urban areas
Direct to Boot delivery by giving one time access for
carriers to ‘smart boot’
Delivery of light weight packages to customer via
GPS-enabled dronesDirect to Boot
Digitally enabled access to lockers at specified
locations for deliveries to customers or tradesman to
pick up kit
Autonomous Delivery Vehicles
Exam
ples
Multi-modal
For example, the use of an EV van or train as a micro
moving warehouse alongside delivery drones
New technologies will lead to a greater number of new modes of ‘Moving Goods’, including drones and robovans for delivery
The Future of Mobility: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles
© 2017 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Mobility as
a Service
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Agree
Neutral
Disagree17%8%
35%
63%
82%
44%
25%
58%
36%
25%
9%
22%
59%
34% 29%
13% 9%
33%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
18-24 25-30 31-40 41-50 51-65 >65
22%
20%
58%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
GlobalExecutives
58% of
executives believe that more than half of all car owners today will not want to own a car in 2025
17%8%
35%
63%
82%
44%
25%
58%
36%
25%
9%
22%
59%
34% 29%
13% 9%
33%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
18-24 25-30 31-40 41-50 51-65 >65
32-38 39-53 45-54 55-64 65-79 >79
Consumer age band - 2016
Forecast age band in 2030:
The sharing economy will have penetrated the mobility sector, will 50% of current UK car owners not owning a vehicle by 2030
59% of 18-
24 consumers believe that more
than half of all car owners today
will not want to own a car in 2025
58% of
executives believe that more than half of all car owners today will not want to own a car in 2025
Source: KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017
Agree
Neutral
Disagree22%
20%
58%
GlobalExecutives
Younger consumers are much more likely to agree that personal vehicle ownership will decline
32-38 39-53 45-54 55-64 65-79 >79
Consumer age band - 2016
Forecast age band in 2030:
The Future of Mobility: Mobility as a Service
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
The cost of MaaS provision will be lower than private ownership (on a cost per mile basis), encouraging take-up
Sources: Department for Transport, Transport for London, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Scenario Analysis – Stretch case
Private Car
National & Metropolitan Rail
Ride-sharing services
Electrified AV Mobility Services 2030
Taxi
c.£5.00
Cost per mile – UK modes
Size indicates relative number of miles travelled per capita per year
£0.20-£0.40
MaaS provision could be up to 40% cheaper than private ownership
Local/National bus
The Future of Mobility: Mobility as a Service
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Selected examples
– App-based on-demand shipping, connecting carriers and customers
– The carrier collects, packages and ships at the lowest possible cost
– B2B and B2C delivery within the hour, using retail outlets as mini-depots
– Proprietary forecasting and dispatch tech to match couriers to demand
– Social delivery model that goes even further as a P2P solution
– Matches deliveries with people going that way, marketplace sets pricing
– Crowd-sourcing, shared platform, used to place delivery contracts for corporate and private commercial vehicle owners to fulfil
Efficient transport logistics
Optimised routes, less unused
capacity and pooled transport volumes
Addressing peak requirements
Sharing concepts particularly valuable at peak times given existing congestion
Service focused logistics
“Pay per minute” or “book guaranteed slot” propositions
aligned with service focused carrier needs
Source(s): KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis of public announcements
Sharing Economy
Customer
Service provider
Platform
Retailer etc.
Sharing economy in last mile delivery
Incumbents will also look to leverage the sharing economy for solutions in the complex and congested last mile delivery
The Future of Mobility: Mobility as a Service
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Final thoughts
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
9%20%
35%54%
100%
2%, 1m 6%, 2m 14%, 5m25%, 9m
43%, 16m
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
EV sales as a % of sales
EV parc as a % of parc
0.1%5%
15%
25% 30%
1%, 0m 1%, 1m4%, 1m
9%, 3m15%, 5m
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
MaaS as a % of sales
MaaS as a % of parc
9%24%
55%91%
1%, 0m 6%, 2m20%, 7m
42%, 15m
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AV MaaS as a % of sales
AV MaaS as a % of parc
Strong growth is expected in passenger cars across EV, AV and MaaS
Note: (a) AV returns to human control if the system cannot function correctly; (b) No driver interaction needed and the car will stop itself if the system fails
EV penetration (2017-2040)
MaaSpenetration (2017-2040)
AVpenetration(2017-2040)
Declining battery costs reduce EV TCOEV
EV TCO parity with ICE reached
in early 2020s
MaaS
AV
Pro
ject
ed
road
map
L3(a)
Up to 50% of current UK car owners may no longer own a car
L4(b) L5
Uptake of AVSource: KPMG analysis of publically available information and SME local market insight
UK and France - end sales of petrol/ diesel vehicles
UK Estimates –Passenger Vehicles
The Future of Mobility
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Adoption of alternative powertrains and AV in commercial vehicles will depend upon vehicle class and use case
Gross vehicle weight (GVW)
2030 preferred powertrain
2030 AV primary use cases
LCV MCV HCV
<3.5t
Electric (BEV and PHEV)
3.5-16t
Diesel; limited EV and alternative fuels uptake
>16t
Diesel; no alternative fuels consensus
2030 MaaSuse cases
Last-mile and urban deliveries
Mix of LCV and HCVBulk freight (e.g. platooning
on motorways)
Sharing economy delivery
Mix of LCV and HCV Digital freight brokerage
The Future of Mobility
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Three key implications to reflect on…
Explosion in value and investment activity (across all parts of the
value chain)
New business model concepts are emerging…
…frequently requiring new collaboration and partnerships
1 2 3
£
The Future of Mobility
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Mobility Ecosystem 2030
Network
KPMG’s Mobility Ecosystem 2030 network is already bringing together participants across sectors and value chains
• Collaboration between KPMG and Ford to convene a collaborative network
• Executive-level attendees from all sectors impacted by mobility trends
• Energy and Moving Goods ecosystems were the focus of the last October 2017 event
• Strong emphasis on discussion and insight sharing, new business models, and collaborative partnerships
The Future of Mobility
Proposed core themes for the April 2018 event
Multi-Modal Transport Financial Services
We will continue to convene up to 100 top executives from industry leading organisations across the ecosystem, who all have a stake in the architecture and implications of Mobility 2030
We will introduce themes for the fourth event in 2018
Data and Cyber Security Focus on Start-ups
#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030
Thank you
Key contact in relation to this document
Christoph DomkeDirector, Mobility2030, KPMG Global Strategy Group, +44(0)[email protected]
© 2017 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.