The Future of Mobility

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY

Ciobanu Mihai Gabriel1956 IVPA

Transilvania University of Brasov=2016=

Table of contents 1.Introduction 2.Demographic change, increased

urbanization, and Social trends 3.Vehicle Technology, and Driverless Operation 4.Sustainable Fuel & Powertrain Technologies,

and Composite Chassis Fabrication 5.Infrastructure Improvements 6.Changing Legal Definitions, and Insurance 7.Summary

INTRODUCTION

Imagine a person getting ready for work in the morning. This person prepares as ifit were any ordinary morning. This person has breakfast, gather their papers,briefcase, and walks out to their car. It is ready to go by the time the driver pulls onthe door handle.The driver proceeds to the highway, and isn't paying full attention and attempts tomerge on the highway when the car conducts an avoidance maneuver becauseanother car was in the blind spot, and a warning is displayed on the instrumentpanel. The driver regains control of the vehicle, thinking nothing of it, and continueson to work. The driver then sets the vehicle's Adaptive Cruise Control to follow thecar ahead, and maintain a reasonable 55 miles per hour. The car ahead slows down,and stops suddenly due to a traffic jam. The vehicle senses this before the driver,slows down, and stops thus avoiding a rear end collision, before continuing forward. The system will also follow the bend in the road. All the vehicle requires is that thedriver keep two hands on the steering wheel, while it pampers the driver with a hotstone back massage, and a symphony of music from the Burmester sound system.

This might appear to be a story of fantasy, or something that will take place in thedistant future. The reality is the car outlined in the story above is already available.The car is the 2014 Mercedes-Benz S-Class (W222). The technology showcased inthis car is something calledIntelligent Drive. The automotiveindustry has demonstrated a trendabout technology showcased in thelatest Mercedes-Benz S-Class andhow it will eventually trickle-downto every car within a couple ofdecades. This was previouslydemonstrated with Mercedes-Benz’s safety innovations such as airbags, ABS, andtraction control in the S-Class (Generations: W116, W126, and W140 respectively)from the 1980’s. (Daimler AG, 2014) New sustainable powertrain technologies will conservelimited resources, and decrease emissions while offering better performance toconsumers. While this is happening infrastructure improvements will need to takeplace to handle changes in the demographic landscape, and automobile technology.Further vehicle automation will spur a debate about changing legal definitions,about liability of autonomous vehicles, and also how to insure them.

Demographic change, increased urbanization, and Social trends

In the next fifteen to twenty years there will likely be massive demographic changein Romania, UE, and the world. This change will transform the automotiveindustry. The questions are: who is going to purchase vehicles in the future, how arevehicles going to be sold, and what kind of vehicles will consumers want? Automobile ownership in the future will not totally stop, but it will evolve. Thefuture buyers of automobiles will have different expectations, and requirements. Forexample, future buyers will have much higher expectations of customer servicethroughout the entire purchase, and ownership process. This means thatdealerships will need to invest in their facilities to be more inviting, and deliver veryhigh customer service to be even considered. Research suggests, that amongyounger buyers attractive dealership showrooms, along with total experience, price,and salesperson attitude are “important”. Increased urbanization will increase the cost of automobile ownership, and decrease the desirability of ownership. Future consumers will still desire automobiles for trips outside the limits of public transportation. Firms will have to adapt to this change and offer new services to cater to changing consumer tastes by offering short term flexible leases, and car sharing programs.

Another form of car use that will likely grow popular will be car sharing, where theconsumer pays a monthly subscription to a company like Zipcar, where they willhave on demand access. The consumer simply finds a Zipcar location, scans amembership card to unlock the car, and drives away. They only need to ensure thecar is kept clean, and that the fuel level is kept above ¼ tank. =====CLUJ===== Car sharing will likely become popular for many reasons. Firstly, it allows theconsumer freedom to live in an urban area without a car, but possess the ability touse one on demand. Secondly, it removes much of the responsibility for vehicleownership like parking, security, and maintenance. Lastly, it eliminates most of thecost of owning a vehicle such as insurance, gasoline, maintenance, and depreciation.

Vehicle Technology, and Driverless Operation

Currently the automotive industry is indicating trends in three major areas: vehicleinfotainment/communication systems, and vehicle safety. These three areas seem toconflict with each other, however more often than not the future automobile will besafer as a result of improvements in all of these areas. Apple just recently announced partnerships with several automakers to launch CarPlay. The user would connect their device to the vehicles infotainment system, and could use the system just like their iPhone. They could listen to their music from their iPhone, but also see all of the “metadata” associated with the song.6 It would also enable the user to use the navigation system on their iPhone, and other associated applications. Blunders like BMW’s first generation iDrive lacked a logical user interface, or asimple controller to input commands. In addition to improving vehicle infotainment systems, automakers can invest inmaking their cars communicate wirelessly with one another to reduce congestion traffic. A connected vehicle can provide data to other vehicles about safety hazards, such asicy roads, or low visibility. In addition connected vehicles can provide data to eachother on their location to avoid an accident. If an accident were to occur, aconnected vehicle could communicate its location using GPS, and accident data toemergency responders. Connected vehicles have the potential of preventing around82% of crash scenarios.

A brief history of these driving systems in the consumer market was first introducedby Mercedes-Benz, and offered on the W220 S-Class8. This system was calledDistronic, and was referred to as “adaptive cruise control”. In general, adaptivecruise control utilizes radar, or laser sensors to determine the distance and speed of vehicleahead. The system will vary speed accordingly to maintain a safe distance.

Diagram illustrating the range of Distronic Plus (Daimler AG, 2014)

A successful adaptive cruise control system is the first step in developing a truly autonomous vehicle. However, a truly autonomous vehicle is reliant upon other systems to ensure the vehicle is under control. These systems include lane keep assist, blind spot assist, very accurate GPS, and vision systems. Autonomous vehicles will be pivotal in improving safety for drivers, passengers, andthe community. For instance, an autonomous vehicle is optimized when it can travelin a convoy within a dedicated lane on a roadway, separate from manually operatedcars. The fact that an autonomous vehicle eliminates the human variable actuallymakes the vehicle become safer not only for the driver but also the community. The possibilities of these systems in the future are endless. One can imagine thecommute to work could be a time to read news, or simply relax while the car isdriving itself. Another hidden benefit could be that an autonomous vehicle coulddrop off a driver at work, return home (or another location), and come back to workto pick up the driver at the end of shift. Audi has already demonstrated thiskind of technology where the driver exits the car, and activates the system on theirsmartphone to park the car. However, there are some obstacles hindering further implementation of fullyautonomous vehicles. First and foremost is the cost to the automaker for developingthese systems. Secondly, proper autonomous vehicle infrastructure such as dedicated highwaylanes do not exist. Lastly, changing definitions about legal liability with automatedvehicles will further hinder implementation. In closing, advancements in both vehicle infotainment and automation will bebeneficial in the coming decades. Innovations in vehicle infotainment systems canmake vehicles safer and easier to use while safely integrating consumer electronics

Sustainable Fuel & Powertrain Technologies, and Composite Chassis

Fabrication Concerns about environmental preservation have increasingly been gaining momentum in the automotive industry. Automakers currently face legislation on mitigating CO2 emissions9, increasing corporate average fuel economy, and maximizing vehicle lifecycle sustainability. This trend will likely continue, and CO2 emissions, and corporate fuel economy standards are likely to become more stringent. Currently there are three trends in theindustry for fuel technology; these include hydrogen, electric, and compressednatural gas (CNG). Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Hydrogen fuel technology is favored by several automakers, so much so that severalhave ventured to develop fully functional vehicles for limited release in test markets. Hydrogen fuel cells offer efficiency, and only emit water emissions. The downside is safety of the highly flammable fuel cell when there is an accident, and also efficiently deriving hydrogen from the environment. (Mitchell, Borroni-Bird, & Burns, 2010) Electric vehicles are currently in vogue, and will likely remain that way for theforeseeable future. Many manufacturers, and even startups have developedworking, salable vehicles for mass consumption. The greatest success story thus faris Tesla, not only because of its vehicles, but its charging infrastructure and salesnetwork.

However, there are several disadvantages to electric vehicles, but Tesla has seemedto overcome most them. Most consumers are quite apprehensive about “range anxiety” or running out of battery power. Tesla has overcome this objection by investing in “superchargers” along highways for owners to refuel their vehicles in about thirty minutes. Secondly, battery technology is still being refined in terms of weight and size, which is something Tesla is tirelessly working on. Electric vehicles will likely be popular in the future as fears of range anxiety subside, and battery technology is improved. There is also a third category of vehicle fueling technology: Compressed Natural Gas(CNG). A few manufacturers have developed, and are currently selling CNG poweredvehicles.10 CNG powered vehicles can offer lower CO2 emissions than both gasoline,and diesel vehicles. These types of vehicles offer more range than electric vehicles,and overcome consumer range anxiety. CNG is often cheaper than gasoline anddiesel, and since most homes have natural gas piped in for heating, consumers couldrefuel their vehicles at home. This fuel type could see foreseeable growth in thefuture. Hybrid technologies will likely remain popular into the future. This type of vehicle issimilar to the Toyota Prius which has a small displacement gasoline motor with anelectric motor to supplement the power the of the gasoline motor. These types ofvehicles offer efficiency at a low cost, and several automakers have started offering ahybrid variant to complement each of their existing models.

Infrastructure Improvements

Automobiles in the future will likely require different infrastructure than what is currently available. This includes new fueling stations, dedicated lanes for automated vehicles, and redesigning urban areas for new types of mobility. A delay in developing new infrastructure will reduce the benefits of automated and green vehicles. These include changes in services, and roadway infrastructure to support new types of transportation. Electric vehicles will require charging stations every 100-200 miles, or at least at a consistent interval to ensure the vehicle doesn’t run out of charge. Each charging center could be an opportunity for entrepreneurs to have rest areas, food, or shopping for occupants to relax while their car is charging. Parking areas will also likely need to consider the increase demand for electric vehicles and offer built in charging stations. Automated vehicles perform best in convoystravelling faster and separate from normal traffic. It is likely in the future that theconcept pioneered by the HOV lane, might spawn the creation of an autonomousvehicle lane. Nevertheless highway planners should investigate ways to incorporatededicated lanes for autonomous vehicles in the future.

Solutions are available to roadway planners on how to best design roads that separate various mobility types and optimize use. One specific example calls for creating separate lanes for pedestrians, bikes/city cars/segways, public transportation, and normal traffic

There are solutions available to roadway planners on how to best design roads thatseparate various mobility types and optimize use. One specific example calls forcreating separate lanes for pedestrians, bikes/city cars/segways, publictransportation, and normal traffic

Changing Legal Definitions, and Insurance

It is likely in the future that automated driving systems will be offered by moreautomakers making vehicles much safer. However that means there should also bechanges to the legal, and insurance fee structure. There are already technologiesbeing introduced by automakers that are changing the costs of insurance. Society’sincreasing willingness to release data will also change how insurance works. Autonomous vehicles pose a problem of liability in an accident because it is not thedriver who was driving, it was the car. In today’s current legal structure liabilitywould place blame on the driver for not paying attention. However furtherautomation will likely place potential liability on the automakers, or the companydeveloping/manufacturing/souring the automation system. This change in liabilitywill encourage automakers to make the systems more redundant, and foolproof. Already several automakers have developed, and sold vehicle active collisionavoidance technology to mitigate the risk of an accident.15 Such technology canprevent 48 percent of rear-end, and lane change accidents. Some European insurersacknowledge the benefits of these systems and have offered discounts of around 20percent off insurance premiums to equipped vehicles.

Summary The concepts expressed in this paper are likely the best estimates of what to expectfrom the global automotive industry in the next 20-30 years. The change will likelybe gradual, but steady as vehicle automation technology diffuses through theindustry. This technology will help improve the safety of automobiles for occupantsand also the community.

However automakers, and retailers must be cognizant of impending demographicchange, and ensure to adapt their product portfolio to evolving consumer needs, andtastes. Increased urbanization will also prompt firms to rethink car ownership anduse, along with environmental awareness. Regulatory bodies will need to adaptvehicle classification criteria, and roadway planning to be ready for autonomousvehicles, and derivatives of personal mobility. Autonomous vehicles, and activesafety systems will likely prompt legal entities, and insurers to rethink liability, andinsurance pricing.

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