The Future of Information Technology - cs.colorado.edu Future of Information Technology. Information Technology ... andnd fa fasster trater transnsisistorstors a are fure fuelingeling

Paul HornIBM Senior VP and

Director of Research

University of ColoradoUniversity of ColoradoSeptember 14, 2000September 14, 2000

The Future of Information Technology

Information Technology Information Technology will Change Everythingwill Change Everything

World of the Future

The Third Wave

"We are witnessing nothing less than the "We are witnessing nothing less than the rise of a new economy --- a digital rise of a new economy --- a digital economy --- a new global medium that will economy --- a new global medium that will be the single most important global driver be the single most important global driver of business, economic, and social change in of business, economic, and social change in the next century"the next century"

-- LVG; June 14, 1999

On an extended time scale and over many different On an extended time scale and over many different generations of technology, the rate of growth in IT generations of technology, the rate of growth in IT performance has continued to increase. New technologies performance has continued to increase. New technologies for extremely dense storage, enormous bandwidth over for extremely dense storage, enormous bandwidth over optical fibers, and faster transistors are fueling this growth. optical fibers, and faster transistors are fueling this growth.

Although in the next ten years substantial barriers to Although in the next ten years substantial barriers to further progress will be encountered in many areas,further progress will be encountered in many areas, history history hhas shown that we have always found new technologies to go as shown that we have always found new technologies to go beyond those which are reaching their limitations. beyond those which are reaching their limitations.

Progress in information technology (IT) continues at an ever increasing pace.

Trend 1

after Kurzweil, 1999 & Moravec, 1998

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

1E-6

1E-3

1E+0

1E+3

1E+6

1E+9

1E+12

Co

mp

utatio

ns/sec

MechanicalElectro-mechanicalVacuum tube

Discrete transistorIntegrated circuit

$1000 Buys...

* Special purpose machines, i.e. chess, molecular dynamics, protein folding.

Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBMBrain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Age of Spiritual MachinesMoravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

TeraF

lop

s

84% CGRIBM Blue Gene

Human brain ops

Mouse brain ops

Riken MDM*Riken MDM*

IBM Deep Blue*

ASCI

Supercomputing Roadmap

For current applications, good enough performance thresholds For current applications, good enough performance thresholds will be passed for many compute platforms and components. will be passed for many compute platforms and components. (PCs, Single function servers, Displays, Hard disk drives)(PCs, Single function servers, Displays, Hard disk drives)

Commoditization increases (silicon, disks, servers and raw Commoditization increases (silicon, disks, servers and raw bandwidth) driving providers to seek differentiation via new bandwidth) driving providers to seek differentiation via new features and higher levels of service.features and higher levels of service.

Opportunities for differentiation abound but will require higher Opportunities for differentiation abound but will require higher risk and significant investment.risk and significant investment.

Technical and economic thresholds will be passed, enabling new Technical and economic thresholds will be passed, enabling new applications and uses.applications and uses.

Implications

The The first wave of connectivity (1980's)first wave of connectivity (1980's) linked people within a linked people within a business and between academic communities via e-mail. business and between academic communities via e-mail. The The second wave of connectivity (1990's)second wave of connectivity (1990's) enabled businesses and enabled businesses and growing numbers of people to interact via e-mail, web browsers growing numbers of people to interact via e-mail, web browsers and collaborative tools. Internet based business models and and collaborative tools. Internet based business models and communities have evolved. communities have evolved. TheThe third wave of connectivity (2000's)third wave of connectivity (2000's) will involve objects - will involve objects - products, everyday things and sensors - connecting the digital products, everyday things and sensors - connecting the digital and physical worlds. New paradigms such as locality-aware and physical worlds. New paradigms such as locality-aware devices, always-on mobile connectivity and environment-aware devices, always-on mobile connectivity and environment-aware products, will drive the intermixing of personal and business products, will drive the intermixing of personal and business activities and ever tighter IT integration into human lives.activities and ever tighter IT integration into human lives.

Connected computation everywhere will rapidly change the interaction of people and objects with the digital world, making pervasive devices the dominant means of information access.

Trend 2

Web servers with demonstrations on the internet.

HP Vectra 5/90

Phar Lap

Stanford "Matchbox"

iReady TCP/IP chip

U. Mass. "Matchhead"

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

1E-6

1E-2

1E+2

1E+6

Size (cm

3)

Full PC equivalent: Stanford Matchbox combined with IBM Microdrive

2001: Integrated with sensor, <1E-4cm3 "chip" for 50 cents Smart

dust?

Physical Size of a Web Server

1994 1998 2002 2006

Year

1

10

100

1000

Co

st ($)

802.11 wireless LANGPS

Cellular per 10Kb/s**Imager (VGA)*

*imager cost drop is slower, as pixels size is *imager cost drop is slower, as pixels size is limited by light wavelengths.limited by light wavelengths.

**assuming shared BW, i.e. cost of **assuming shared BW, i.e. cost of 2Mb/s 3G cellular is $300 in 2002.2Mb/s 3G cellular is $300 in 2002.

Cost of Equivalent Functionality (Chipset)

Pervasive devices will become the dominant means of information Pervasive devices will become the dominant means of information processing and access.processing and access.

New form factors will drive technology and innovation, and create New form factors will drive technology and innovation, and create opportunities for new applications and services.opportunities for new applications and services.

Digitally connected objects will increasingly interact autonomously.Digitally connected objects will increasingly interact autonomously.

Medical and other physiological needs will increasingly drive the Medical and other physiological needs will increasingly drive the evolution of the human cyborg.evolution of the human cyborg.

Technical capabilities are catching up to perceptual and computational Technical capabilities are catching up to perceptual and computational capabilities of humans, but people still will be very aware that they capabilities of humans, but people still will be very aware that they are dealing with machines (ie. forget HAL).are dealing with machines (ie. forget HAL).

The networks, servers and software infrastructure will be challenged.The networks, servers and software infrastructure will be challenged.I-4

Implications

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20101

10

100

1000

10000

Installed

Base (M

illion

s)

Mobile phone total Mobile phone w/datacapability

PC installed base

Sources: ResearchPortal.com, Semico, EE Times, Reuters, Gartner, Ericson...

Note: Does not include cars with driver information systems (approximately 8% of 150 Million in 2006 - Jupiter)

Pervasive Devices Will Be the Dominant Means of Information Access

Economic incentives increasingly support IT delivery through Economic incentives increasingly support IT delivery through an information utility paradigm. This paradigm takes an information utility paradigm. This paradigm takes advantage of economies of scale (redundancy, peak load advantage of economies of scale (redundancy, peak load handling, skills and knowledge) and the need for companies handling, skills and knowledge) and the need for companies to focus on core competencies rather than increasingly to focus on core competencies rather than increasingly complex IT management tasks. This shift is being driven complex IT management tasks. This shift is being driven by the rise of e-business, high-speed networks, and open by the rise of e-business, high-speed networks, and open interoperability standards.interoperability standards.

An intelligent infrastructure is emerging to flexibly balance An intelligent infrastructure is emerging to flexibly balance the forces of centralization with opposing forces, such as the forces of centralization with opposing forces, such as limitations in local bandwidth, latency and the limitations in local bandwidth, latency and the heterogeneity of compute platforms. heterogeneity of compute platforms.

A utility-like model for value delivery through IT will emerge, based on an intelligent infrastructure.

Trend 3

No "grand centralization" will occur, rather a hierarchy of centralized tiers No "grand centralization" will occur, rather a hierarchy of centralized tiers will govern IT deployment.will govern IT deployment.

The migration of intelligence into the network will ignite battles between The migration of intelligence into the network will ignite battles between platforms for infrastructure function (traditional IT vs networking platforms for infrastructure function (traditional IT vs networking technology). technology).

New businesses models, based on a utility-like infrastructure will emerge New businesses models, based on a utility-like infrastructure will emerge based on interoperability standards.based on interoperability standards.

IT costs will be reduced by deploying massively redundant low cost IT costs will be reduced by deploying massively redundant low cost component architectures, reducing costs over and above economies of scale. component architectures, reducing costs over and above economies of scale.

IT value will be increasingly measured, managed and optimized using IT value will be increasingly measured, managed and optimized using business performance metrics.business performance metrics.

IT labor will be increasingly displaced by technology, accelerating the IT labor will be increasingly displaced by technology, accelerating the change from a human-intensive to a knowledge-intensive businesschange from a human-intensive to a knowledge-intensive business..

Implications

Higher level building blocks allow programmers to focus on Higher level building blocks allow programmers to focus on adding new functionality with more efficiency, flexibility adding new functionality with more efficiency, flexibility and speed to market, as well as involve subject matter and speed to market, as well as involve subject matter experts. As these building blocks mature, they experts. As these building blocks mature, they standardize and become part of the winning application standardize and become part of the winning application platform. platform. The high bandwidth connectivity of the Internet and The high bandwidth connectivity of the Internet and interoperability standards will allow software applications interoperability standards will allow software applications and services to be offered as building blocks to higher and services to be offered as building blocks to higher level applications and services through the net. level applications and services through the net.

IT value will advance by building higher level software components, increasingly delivered as services, on winning application platforms.

Trend 4

Business-to-ConsumerProcesses

EnterpriseProcesses

e-Commerce Building Blocks

Business-to-BusinessProcesses

MRO Procurement

RFP/RFQ

Internet EDI

Contractor Management

InternationalTrade

Trading Partner

Agreements

Accounting and Control

Human Resources

Sales andDistribution

Production and Materials Management

Quality Management

Project Management

1:1 Marketing

Promotion /Loyalty Management

Personalization

Cross-Selling

Matchmaking/Brokerage

Negotiation/Auctions

Integrated Sourcing

ProfilingPrivacy

Catalogs

BusinessIntelligence Payments

Cus

tom

er R

elat

ions

hip

Man

agem

ent

Supply C

hain Managem

ent

Next Generation e-Business Platform

Data and information have exploded due to e-commerce, business Data and information have exploded due to e-commerce, business process automation (e.g. ERP, SCM, CRM), modeling and simulation and process automation (e.g. ERP, SCM, CRM), modeling and simulation and increased connectivity through the Internet and pervasive devices. In increased connectivity through the Internet and pervasive devices. In the highly competitive world of e-business, only companies with the the highly competitive world of e-business, only companies with the capability and structure to leverage this data to best advantage will capability and structure to leverage this data to best advantage will survive.survive.

Sophisticated management and analysis of data will enable winning Sophisticated management and analysis of data will enable winning enterprises to rapidly and flexibly react to market events (sense and enterprises to rapidly and flexibly react to market events (sense and respond). For example, the static supply chains of today will be respond). For example, the static supply chains of today will be transformed by dynamic trading in business-to-business electronic transformed by dynamic trading in business-to-business electronic marketplaces.marketplaces.

The e-business of the future will be dynamic, adaptive and continuously optimized, depending on powerful business analytics and knowledge management for survival.

Trend 5

98 00 02 04 06 0812

15

18

21

24

Petabyte

Terabyte

Exabyte

Zetabyte

Yottabyte

Static HTML

Internet

Online

10

10

10

10

10

60%

300%

80-100%

200%

Static HTML = unchanging web pages, Internet = dynamic web pages and web accessible DBs, Online=computer accessible storage, e.g. HDD. Data includes multiple copies in the world. Source: IBM

100% CGR for structured data (billing, customer, transactions...etc) [Gartner 1999]

Information Grows Exponentially

TPC-D benchmark became obsolete on February 16, 1999. TPC-D is replaced by TPC-H (random queries) and TPC-R (known queries, e.g. reports)

1997 1998 1999 2000

System Available Date

10

100

1000

10000

System

Co

st ($) / (qu

eries/ho

ur)

100 GB300 GB

1000 GB3000 GB

-77% CGR

DB Query Price/Performance

($/QphD Leaders)

IBM Research Worldwide

WatsonWatsonAlmadenAlmaden ZurichZurich BeijingBeijing

HaifaHaifaAustinAustinTokyoTokyo

DelhiDelhi

1970's1970's

Corporate Corporate FundedFundedResearch Research AgendaAgendaTechnology Technology TransferTransfer

Centrally FundedCentrally Funded

2000's2000's

& Research in the Marketplace& Research in the Marketplace

& Joint Programs& Joint Programs

1980's1980's 1990's1990's

Collaborative Collaborative Team Team Shared Shared AgendaAgendaEffectivenessEffectiveness

Work on Work on Customer Customer ProblemsProblems

Create Create Business Business Advantage for Advantage for CustomersCustomersEmerging Emerging Business Business OpportunitiesOpportunities

Evolution of Role

& External Partnerships& External Partnerships

Strategic Research Themes Pervasive computingPervasive computingIntelligent e-business infrastructureIntelligent e-business infrastructure

Platforms: (net.commerce, WebSphere,...) Platforms: (net.commerce, WebSphere,...)

eUtilitieseUtilities

Unstructured knowledge management Unstructured knowledge management Next generation webNext generation webGrowing our OEM businessGrowing our OEM business

Communications & pervasive technologyCommunications & pervasive technologyStorageStorage

Exploratory researchExploratory research

Paul HornIBM Senior VP and

Director of Research

University of ColoradoUniversity of ColoradoSeptember 14, 2000September 14, 2000

The Future of Information Technology