The Future of Homeland Security William L. Waugh, Jr. Andrew Young School of Policy Studies Georgia State University FEMA Higher Education Conference Emmitsburg,

The Future of The Future of Homeland SecurityHomeland SecurityWilliam L. Waugh, Jr.William L. Waugh, Jr.Andrew Young School of Policy StudiesAndrew Young School of Policy Studies

Georgia State UniversityGeorgia State University

FEMA Higher Education ConferenceFEMA Higher Education Conference

Emmitsburg, MD, June 7-9, 2005Emmitsburg, MD, June 7-9, 2005

Homeland SecurityHomeland Security

DHS was created November 25, 2003 with the signing of DHS was created November 25, 2003 with the signing of the Homeland Security Act of 2002the Homeland Security Act of 2002

DHS combined 22 federal agencies/programs with DHS combined 22 federal agencies/programs with roughly 170,000 employees (with 25,000-30,000 federal roughly 170,000 employees (with 25,000-30,000 federal passenger screeners added in 2004)passenger screeners added in 2004)

Direct response to September 2001 attacks Direct response to September 2001 attacks Foci on security of civil aviation and protection of US Foci on security of civil aviation and protection of US

borders – the major vulnerabilities revealed on 9-11-01borders – the major vulnerabilities revealed on 9-11-01 Homeland Security, prior to DHS, was a policy arena Homeland Security, prior to DHS, was a policy arena

characterized by a competition between DOD and DOJcharacterized by a competition between DOD and DOJ

Components of Components of Homeland SecurityHomeland Security

US Department of AgricultureUS Department of AgricultureAnimal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceAnimal and Plant Health Inspection ServicePlum Island Animal Disease Center Plum Island Animal Disease Center

US Department of CommerceUS Department of CommerceCritical Infrastructure Assurance OfficeCritical Infrastructure Assurance Office

US Department of DefenseUS Department of DefenseNational Biological Warfare Defense Analysis National Biological Warfare Defense Analysis CenterCenterNational Communications SystemNational Communications System

Components of Components of Homeland SecurityHomeland Security

US Department of EnergyUS Department of EnergyLawrence Livermore National LaboratoryLawrence Livermore National LaboratoryNuclear Incident Response TeamNuclear Incident Response TeamNational Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis CenterNational Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center

US Department of Health and Human ServicesUS Department of Health and Human Services Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Response Assets Response Assets Strategic National Stockpile Strategic National Stockpile National Disaster Medical SystemNational Disaster Medical SystemCivilian Biodefense Research ProgramsCivilian Biodefense Research Programs

Components of Components of Homeland SecurityHomeland Security

US Department of JusticeUS Department of JusticeImmigration and Naturalization ServiceImmigration and Naturalization ServiceOffice of Domestic Preparedness (FY03 Office of Domestic Preparedness (FY03 FEMA)FEMA)National Infrastructure Protection Center (FBI)National Infrastructure Protection Center (FBI)National Domestic Preparedness Office (FBI)National Domestic Preparedness Office (FBI)

US Department of TransportationUS Department of TransportationUS Coast GuardUS Coast GuardTransportation Security AgencyTransportation Security Agency

Components of Components of Homeland SecurityHomeland Security

US Department of the TreasuryUS Department of the Treasury

Customs ServiceCustoms Service

Secret ServiceSecret Service

Federal Emergency Management AgencyFederal Emergency Management Agency

Government Services AdministrationGovernment Services Administration

Federal Protective ServiceFederal Protective Service

Federal Computer Incident Response CenterFederal Computer Incident Response Center

DHS Manpower in 2003DHS Manpower in 2003

USCG – 43,639 employees USCG – 43,639 employees TSA – 41,300/70,000 employees TSA – 41,300/70,000 employees INS/Border Patrol – 39,459 employeesINS/Border Patrol – 39,459 employees Customs Service – 21,743 employeesCustoms Service – 21,743 employees Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service –

8,620 employees8,620 employees Secret Service – 6,111 employeesSecret Service – 6,111 employees FEMA – 5,135 employees (2.5-3% of DHS total)FEMA – 5,135 employees (2.5-3% of DHS total)

DHS MissionDHS Mission

We will lead the unified national effort to We will lead the unified national effort to secure America. We will prevent and secure America. We will prevent and deter terrorist attacks and protect against deter terrorist attacks and protect against and respond to threats and hazards to and respond to threats and hazards to the nation. We will ensure safe and the nation. We will ensure safe and secure borders, welcome lawful secure borders, welcome lawful immigrants and visitors, and promote the immigrants and visitors, and promote the free-flow of commerce.free-flow of commerce.

Expected Strengths Expected Strengths

Some very successful programs – but success Some very successful programs – but success does not always mean survival when does not always mean survival when administrations changeadministrations change

Strong working relationships with state and Strong working relationships with state and local counterparts in some agencies local counterparts in some agencies

Strong working relationships with private and Strong working relationships with private and nonprofit partners in some agenciesnonprofit partners in some agencies

Increasing transparency and openness in Increasing transparency and openness in working with the public and with state and local working with the public and with state and local officialsofficials

Expected Obstacles Expected Obstacles

Intra-organizational problems – integration of Intra-organizational problems – integration of 22 agencies/programs – military, law 22 agencies/programs – military, law enforcement, agriculture, biomedicine, disaster enforcement, agriculture, biomedicine, disaster relief, insurance, fire service, etc.relief, insurance, fire service, etc.

Inter-organizational problems – coordination Inter-organizational problems – coordination with the estimated 100 agencies in 12 with the estimated 100 agencies in 12 departments outside of DHS involved in departments outside of DHS involved in Homeland SecurityHomeland Security

Political problems due to turf battles among the Political problems due to turf battles among the 88 separate Congressional committees having 88 separate Congressional committees having oversightoversight

Expected ObstaclesExpected Obstacles

Mission problems – reconciling DHS’ non-Mission problems – reconciling DHS’ non-terrorism related missions – especially terrorism related missions – especially insurance and disaster recovery missionsinsurance and disaster recovery missions

Shared responsibility problems – nation’s Shared responsibility problems – nation’s intelligence capabilities, namely the CIA and intelligence capabilities, namely the CIA and FBI, not part of DHS, but critical to securityFBI, not part of DHS, but critical to security

Agency administrative problems - Uncertainties Agency administrative problems - Uncertainties concerning “problem” agencies, especially concerning “problem” agencies, especially Border Patrol, INS, and Customs ServiceBorder Patrol, INS, and Customs Service

Civil Service-related administrative problems – Civil Service-related administrative problems – e.g., demographic “bubble”e.g., demographic “bubble”

Intra-Organizational Intra-Organizational ProblemsProblems

Cultural conflicts, although some components Cultural conflicts, although some components are very small offices or labs are very small offices or labs

Domination of department by largest agencies - Domination of department by largest agencies - security agenciessecurity agencies

Domination of DHS core values by politically Domination of DHS core values by politically influential agencies – Fire Service and influential agencies – Fire Service and NIMS/ICS, USCG and strategic doctrine, NIMS/ICS, USCG and strategic doctrine, Homeland Security Council and strategic Homeland Security Council and strategic prioritiespriorities

Political ProblemsPolitical Problems

Fragmentation of Congressional Homeland Fragmentation of Congressional Homeland Security oversight – but consolidation Security oversight – but consolidation recommended by 9-11 Commissionrecommended by 9-11 Commission

Increasing conflict over DHS’ lack of Increasing conflict over DHS’ lack of accountability for performance – OMB report & accountability for performance – OMB report & Congressional demands for standards – NFPA Congressional demands for standards – NFPA 1600 and EMAP1600 and EMAP

Increasing conflict over DHS’ lack of Increasing conflict over DHS’ lack of responsiveness to Congressional committees, responsiveness to Congressional committees, GAO, and CRSGAO, and CRS

Mission ProblemsMission Problems

Declining public support for the Iraq War – the Declining public support for the Iraq War – the ambiguous “War on Terrorism” ambiguous “War on Terrorism”

Decreasing private sector willingness to invest Decreasing private sector willingness to invest in securityin security

Increasing conflicts with state and local Increasing conflicts with state and local counterparts over priorities, funding, etc.counterparts over priorities, funding, etc.

Increasing questions concerning capabilities to Increasing questions concerning capabilities to do non-counter-terrorism missions – e.g., the do non-counter-terrorism missions – e.g., the 2004 Florida hurricane response2004 Florida hurricane response

Agency-Administrative Agency-Administrative ProblemsProblems

Consolidation of INS, Customs, and Border Consolidation of INS, Customs, and Border Security – uncertain effectiveness of new Security – uncertain effectiveness of new structures and continuing intercultural structures and continuing intercultural conflictsconflicts

Personnel turnover problems – retirements, Personnel turnover problems – retirements, transfers, poor morale – the civil service transfers, poor morale – the civil service demographic “bubble” demographic “bubble”

Civil service management problems – Civil service management problems – recruitment, retention, moralerecruitment, retention, morale

Issues to Be ResolvedIssues to Be Resolved

How to expand from a prevention approach to How to expand from a prevention approach to an all-hazards approach – NRP controversyan all-hazards approach – NRP controversy

How to expand focus from counter-terrorism to How to expand focus from counter-terrorism to dealing with other threats to life and propertydealing with other threats to life and property

How to develop mitigation programs for How to develop mitigation programs for terrorism as well as for natural and terrorism as well as for natural and technological hazardstechnological hazards

How to transition from prevention to mitigation, How to transition from prevention to mitigation, response, and recovery functions when attacks response, and recovery functions when attacks cannot be preventedcannot be prevented

Issues to Be ResolvedIssues to Be Resolved

How to improve intra-organizational and inter-How to improve intra-organizational and inter-organizational information sharing organizational information sharing

How to resolve turf and culture battles to coordinate How to resolve turf and culture battles to coordinate national efforts - TOPOFF problemsnational efforts - TOPOFF problems

How to build state and local capabilities to respond to How to build state and local capabilities to respond to terrorist and non-terrorist threatsterrorist and non-terrorist threats

How to involve nongovernmental organizations and How to involve nongovernmental organizations and volunteers – the traditional disaster system resources – volunteers – the traditional disaster system resources – in Homeland Security – the Citizens Corps controversyin Homeland Security – the Citizens Corps controversy

How to leverage private sector resources for national How to leverage private sector resources for national Homeland Security efforts, including how to get the Homeland Security efforts, including how to get the private sector to protect itself private sector to protect itself

What Is the Future of What Is the Future of Homeland Security?Homeland Security?

The longer the US goes without a major terrorist attack The longer the US goes without a major terrorist attack the quicker the perception of the terrorist threat will the quicker the perception of the terrorist threat will dissipate – the policy window will closedissipate – the policy window will close

Major natural disasters will force a change in the policy Major natural disasters will force a change in the policy agenda – public attention and funding will followagenda – public attention and funding will follow

Homeland Security has to mean more than counter-Homeland Security has to mean more than counter-terrorism if DHS is to thriveterrorism if DHS is to thrive

What Is the Future of What Is the Future of Homeland Security? Homeland Security?

Organizational problems within DHS will persist due to:Organizational problems within DHS will persist due to:Cultural incompatibilitiesCultural incompatibilitiesIntegration issues – from patches and Integration issues – from patches and

badges to hierarchy and opennessbadges to hierarchy and opennessInflexibility due to centralization of decision Inflexibility due to centralization of decision and and

administrative processesadministrative processesIncreased competition for budgets - the Increased competition for budgets - the ‘gun ‘gun

toters’ vs the rest – size matterstoters’ vs the rest – size mattersPersonnel turnover – retirements and flight Personnel turnover – retirements and flight of of

senior personnel – “brain drain”senior personnel – “brain drain”

What Is the Future of What Is the Future of Homeland Security? Homeland Security?

Political problems will persistPolitical problems will persistConflicts with state and local officials Conflicts with state and local officials

over over priorities – the old Civil Defense priorities – the old Civil Defense problemproblem

Mission failures – problems addressing Mission failures – problems addressing natural disasters and other natural disasters and other secondary missionssecondary missions

Demands for greater accountability and Demands for greater accountability and for for reasonable performance standardsreasonable performance standards

Total US Casualties, 1993-2003Total US Casualties, 1993-2003Year Dead Wounded Major AttackYear Dead Wounded Major Attack

19931993 77 10041004 1st WTC attack1st WTC attack19941994 66 5519951995 1010 606019961996 2525 510510 Khobar BarracksKhobar Barracks19971997 66 212119981998 1212 1111 Embassy bombsEmbassy bombs19991999 66 6620002000 2323 4747 USS Cole bombUSS Cole bomb20012001 26892689 9090 WTC/PentagonWTC/Pentagon20022002 2626 3535 Afghanistan warAfghanistan war20032003 3535 2929 Iraq war (?)Iraq war (?)

Competing IssuesCompeting Issues

2004 Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne2004 Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and JeanneOver $1.27 billion in federal and state disaster Over $1.27 billion in federal and state disaster

assistance – billions more in insured and uninsured assistance – billions more in insured and uninsured losseslosses

869,929 registered for disaster assistance869,929 registered for disaster assistanceHigh political costs of failureHigh political costs of failure

What happens with the next 8.0+ earthquake centered What happens with the next 8.0+ earthquake centered in major urban area, Force 5 hurricane in a major in major urban area, Force 5 hurricane in a major metropolitan area, the next major flu pandemic, etcmetropolitan area, the next major flu pandemic, etc. .

Competing IssuesCompeting Issues

In 2001, 2689 Americans killed in terrorist attacks In 2001, 2689 Americans killed in terrorist attacks (CDC MMWR number is 2922)(CDC MMWR number is 2922)

33,396 killed in vehicle accidents33,396 killed in vehicle accidents 30,622 suicides30,622 suicides 11,671 homicides involving firearms 11,671 homicides involving firearms 3281 drowned3281 drowned An estimated 400,000 died from tobacco-An estimated 400,000 died from tobacco-

related causesrelated causes

PredictionsPredictions

Secret Service will escape DHSSecret Service will escape DHS Border security roles will continue to consolidate – Border security roles will continue to consolidate –

but personnel turnover will become a critical issuebut personnel turnover will become a critical issue Airport passenger screeners will be privatized Airport passenger screeners will be privatized

again – regardless of effectiveness – to shift costs, again – regardless of effectiveness – to shift costs, to reduce the size of DHS, and to appease airline to reduce the size of DHS, and to appease airline and airport interestsand airport interests

All-hazards approach will be adopted – really All-hazards approach will be adopted – really adopted – because it is more flexible and more adopted – because it is more flexible and more cost-effective than current approachcost-effective than current approach

PredictionsPredictions

The organizational culture of DHS’ central The organizational culture of DHS’ central structures will become more focused on structures will become more focused on coordinative role – simply because the coordinative role – simply because the command role is ineffective command role is ineffective

““Homeland security” will come to mean more Homeland security” will come to mean more than counter-terrorismthan counter-terrorism

DHS’ natural and technological disaster roles DHS’ natural and technological disaster roles will become more insulated from counter-will become more insulated from counter-terrorism roles because the federal terrorism roles because the federal government is not the lead for non-terrorist government is not the lead for non-terrorist hazards and disastershazards and disasters

Total US Casualties, 1993-2003Total US Casualties, 1993-2003Year Dead Wounded Major AttackYear Dead Wounded Major Attack

19931993 77 10041004 1st WTC attack1st WTC attack19941994 66 5519951995 1010 606019961996 2525 510510 Khobar BarracksKhobar Barracks19971997 66 212119981998 1212 1111 Embassy bombsEmbassy bombs19991999 66 6620002000 2323 4747 USS Cole bombUSS Cole bomb20012001 26892689 9090 WTC/PentagonWTC/Pentagon20022002 2626 3535 Afghanistan warAfghanistan war20032003 3535 2929 Iraq war (?)Iraq war (?)