The Future of Extreme The Future of Extreme Weather Weather Dr. Jeff Masters Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, The Weather Underground, Inc. Inc. http://www.wunderground.com http://www.wunderground.com
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The Future of Extreme Weather Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc. .
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The Future of Extreme WeatherThe Future of Extreme Weather
Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com
Education: Education: University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan
B.S. in Meteorology, 1982B.S. in Meteorology, 1982
M.S. in Meteorology, 1983M.S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis:Thesis: “A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol”“A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol”
Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones”Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones”
Me
Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’sServed as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’sAircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990Aircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990
•Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 AircraftCorrection of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft•A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane GilbertA Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert•Wind Measurement From AircraftWind Measurement From Aircraft•Flying Into the Eye of a HurricaneFlying Into the Eye of a Hurricane•Meteorology at BrockportMeteorology at Brockport
Publications:Publications:
My Hurricane Hugo flight: http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.aspMy Hurricane Hugo flight: http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp
Will Hurricanes Increase in Will Hurricanes Increase in Frequency and Intensity?Frequency and Intensity?
Costliest U.S. Hurricanes of all timeCostliest U.S. Hurricanes of all time
Hurricane Karl: first major hurricane ever in Bay of CampecheHurricane Karl: first major hurricane ever in Bay of Campeche22 killed, $5.6 billion damage22 killed, $5.6 billion damage
Cyclone Giri, strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit MyanmarCyclone Giri, strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Myanmar157 killed, $ 0.4 billion damage157 killed, $ 0.4 billion damage
Super Typhoon Megi: 8Super Typhoon Megi: 8thth strongest tropical cyclone in world history strongest tropical cyclone in world history69 killed, $ 0.7 billion damage69 killed, $ 0.7 billion damage
October 22, 955 mb super-cyclone:October 22, 955 mb super-cyclone:Strongest non-coastal storm in U.S. historyStrongest non-coastal storm in U.S. history
Hurricane Tomas: latest hurricane on record so far southHurricane Tomas: latest hurricane on record so far south41 killed, $ 0.6 billion damage41 killed, $ 0.6 billion damage
Floods cause worst natural disaster in Colombia’s historyFloods cause worst natural disaster in Colombia’s history300+ dead, $5 billion damage300+ dead, $5 billion damage
Queensland, Australia floodsQueensland, Australia floods20 killed, $10 – 30 billion damage20 killed, $10 – 30 billion damage
January 2011: Rio de Janeiro floodJanuary 2011: Rio de Janeiro floodDeadliest natural disaster in Brazil’s historyDeadliest natural disaster in Brazil’s history900+ killed, $1.2 billion damage900+ killed, $1.2 billion damage
January 2011: 100-year flood in Sri LankaJanuary 2011: 100-year flood in Sri Lanka43 killed, $0.5 billion damage43 killed, $0.5 billion damage
Arctic sea ice extent, Sep. 19, 2010, 3Arctic sea ice extent, Sep. 19, 2010, 3rdrd lowest on record lowest on record
2010: A year of remarkable climate 2010: A year of remarkable climate eventsevents
2010: Earth’s warmest2010: Earth’s warmestyear in history year in history
2010: Earth’s wettest year in history2010: Earth’s wettest year in history
Winter of 2009 – 2010: most Winter of 2009 – 2010: most extreme Arctic Oscillationextreme Arctic Oscillationpattern in the 145-year record pattern in the 145-year record leads to severe winter in Europeleads to severe winter in Europeand Eastern U.S., but Canada’sand Eastern U.S., but Canada’swarmest and driest winter everwarmest and driest winter ever
Snow covers the U.K., January 7, 2010
A strong El Niño and a strong La Niña in the same yearA strong El Niño and a strong La Niña in the same year
Amazon’s 2Amazon’s 2ndnd 100-year drought in 5 years 100-year drought in 5 years
2010: Greenland’s warmest 2010: Greenland’s warmest year in historyyear in history
1.1. Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal and much above normal.and much above normal.
2.2. Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal and much above normal. and much above normal.
3.3. Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture surplus.surplus.
4.4. Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.
5.5. Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and without precipitation.days with precipitation and without precipitation.
Is U.S. weather getting more extreme?Is U.S. weather getting more extreme?
•Yes. NOAA (Gleason et al., 2008) concluded that the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation has generally been increasing since the early 1970s.
•These increases were most pronounced in summer.
•No trends were noted in winter.
•4 of the 10 most extreme years in the past century occurred since 1996.
Sixteen Potential $10 billion+ U.S. Sixteen Potential $10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters of the Next 30 YearsWeather Disasters of the Next 30 Years
Miami Beach, 1926 HurricaneMiami Beach, 1926 Hurricane
4) California/Southwest U.S. Drought4) California/Southwest U.S. DroughtProbability: 90%Probability: 90%
San Bruno, California Fires, June 2008San Bruno, California Fires, June 2008
3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure 3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control Structureof the Old River Control StructureProbability: 40%Probability: 40%
Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal waterOld River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water
June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta
2) California ARkSTORM Flood2) California ARkSTORM FloodProbability: 30%Probability: 30%
X-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on RecordX-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on Record
Transformer at Salem Nuclear PlantTransformer at Salem Nuclear Plantfried by geomagnetic storm in 1989fried by geomagnetic storm in 1989
A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm would likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting yearswould likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting years
Predictions for the 2011 hurricane seasonPredictions for the 2011 hurricane season
Seasonal Predictions, December 2010:Seasonal Predictions, December 2010:Dr. Bill Gray: Dr. Bill Gray: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes TSR, Inc: TSR, Inc: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes Climatology:Climatology: 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes Since 1995: Since 1995: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes
Since 1995—number of Atlantic named storms, Since 1995—number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricaneshurricanes, and intense hurricanes