The Future of Education in Utah Richard P. West, Ph.D. Executive Director Center for the School of the Future Utah State University New and Aspiring School.

The Future of Education in Utah

Richard P. West, Ph.D.Executive Director

Center for the School of the FutureUtah State University

New and Aspiring School Leaders ConferenceOgden, UtahJune 16, 2004

Center for the School of the Future

• Funded by the Utah State Legislature, 1999 General Session

• “…to promote best practices in the state’s public education system and encourage cooperative and research development relationships between public and higher education” (HB 7)

Newton’s First Law of Motion

An object at rest tends to stay at rest and an object in motion tends to stay in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an

unbalanced force.

What Will Be The Future of Utah’s Public

Education?Studying our history will tell us a great deal

about our future

Newton’s First Law of Motion

Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of

motion unless an external force is applied to it.

At-risk School/ Student

Failure

SuccessIntervention

What do we know about the Future?

Our schools will be crowded

Students will feel the

pressure of increasing standards

Support for education will

be in short supply

Current and Future Pressures on Utah’s Education System

• Student enrollments• Student diversity• Emphasis on

outcomes• Funding and support

Projected Student Enrollment Increases: 2000-2030

• Enrollment boom begins in 2004

• 700,000 students in 2014 (30-40% increase in 10 yrs.)

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Increasing Student Diversity

• Utah has become a destination for many recent migrants

• Utah’s ethnic diversity has doubled in past 10 years

• Rates of increasing diversity are more than twice the national average

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Emphasis on Outcomes

• No Child Left Behind• UPASS• Performance Plus• Employers’ Education

Coalition• SB 154 (Public Education Amendments)

School FundingContradictions

• Utah spends a smaller amount of money to educate each student than does any other state

• Utah spends a larger percentage of its state budget on education than does any other state

WHY?

Two Conditions Combine to Limit Utah’s Funding for

Schools • Utah has more students per wage

earner than does any other state• More than two-thirds of our state is

“owned” by the federal government and generates little or no tax support for education

These conditions will not change appreciably in the

foreseeable future

However, our response to these conditions must

change

“…The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Really

smart people with reasonable funding can do just about

anything that doesn’t violate too many of Newton’s Laws”.

Alan Kay (1971)Inventor of SmallTalk, the inspiration

for Apple Macintosh and other windowing-based computer

operating systems

“There are people succeeding against the odds and producing magnificent results in extremely difficult circumstances. The

problem with American education is that we have never found an effective way to help replicate the success, partly because the magic of education is always what happens in the individual

classroom between the teacher and the student, supported by the parents, strengthened by the culture of a school that is set

overwhelmingly by a gifted principal. I know that.

“But there have to be ways to recognize the plain fact that notwithstanding the funding problems, notwithstanding the inequalities, notwithstanding all the problems (in) American

education, you can find virtually every problem in our country solved by somebody somewhere in an astonishingly effective

fashion if you look at enough schools. So the challenge for us here is to figure out how to replicate that.”

Presidential Comments at the White House ceremony honoring Blue Ribbon Schools, May 14, 1993

If Schools Are To Achieve All They Can, They Will

Need…• Better information about what works (Best Practices)

• Tools for monitoring progress• Tailored assistance in

developing and implementing appropriate policy

• More skillful communication and more public involvement in reform Education Commission of the States, 1998

Sustained School Improvement

Requires Visionary Leadership that Provides…

• BETTER INSTRUCTION – evidence-based, and principle-based

• BETTER SUPPORT – partnerships for effective schools

• BETTER DATA– evidence of effectiveness

LIFE: Leadership Initiative for Education

• Better schools result from better decisions, and better decisions result from better data

• Sustained improvement in academic achievement requires changes in the school environment

• An ethic of collegiality and cooperation is necessary to bring about meaningful school reform

PR

INC

IPLE

S

LIFE: Leadership Initiative for Education

• Regular assessment of critical school conditions, attributes, and improvement (e.g. ISQ)

• Domain-specific Topical Conferences and Implementation Literature

• Collegial Mentoring involving School Planning and Management Teams (SPMTs)

• Systematic rewards for improvement effortsC

OM

PO

NEN

TS

Indicators of School Quality

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The authors note that “Despitethe apparent complexity of thisdiagram, it is undoubtedly anoversimplification and willcertainly be modified by further study.” (p. 5).

Web of Causation for Myocardial Infarction (Heart Attacks)

Taken from Friedman, G. D. (1994).Primer of Epidemiology (5th Ed.).New York: McGraw-Hill, p.4.

Web of Causation for Academic Achievement

Instruction

AcademicAchievement

Web of Causation for Social Competence

Punishment

Social Competence

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Areas of Risk

1. Home Language “Is English the primary language spoken at home?”

2. Mobility “Have you moved more than once in the past three years?”

3. Peer Associations “Do you generally approve of your child’s closest friends?”

4. Family Bonding “Do you regularly attend community, social, or religious meetings?”

5. Community Affiliation “Do your neighbors generally monitor their children’s activities?”

6. Academic Risk “Do you have a high school diploma/GED?”

7. Economic Risk “Do you have Internet access at home?”

Relationship between Risk and Academic Achievement(Indicators of School Quality- ISQ)

0

20

40

60

Overall Risk

Low Risk 59 58 57 57

Moderate Risk 44 42 45 43

High Risk 24 20 17 25

3rd 5th 8th 11th

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ISQ and Academic Achievement

• The variables measured by ISQ account for more than 80% of the variance of academic achievement scores

• Even when “risk” is removed from the equation, the correlations between ISQ variables and achievement are statistically significant

“For more than a hundred years much complaint has been made of the

unmethodological way in which schools are conducted, but it is only within the last

thirty that any serious attempt has been made to find a remedy for this state of things. And with what results? Schools

remain exactly as they were.”

John Amos ComeniusThe Great Didactic

1632

93 Graduate from high school

65 Complete at least some college

33 Obtain at least a Bachelor’s Degree

Of Every 100 White Kindergartners:

(25-to 29-Year-Olds)

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, 1971-2001, in The Condition of Education 2002.

Of Every 100 African American Kindergartners:

87 Graduate from High School

50 Complete at Least Some College

18 Obtain at Least a Bachelor’s Degree

(25-to 29-Year-Olds)

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Survey, 1971-2001, In The Condition of Education 2002.

Of Every 100 Latino Kindergartners:

63 Graduate from high school

32 Complete at least some college

11 Obtain at least a Bachelor’s Degree

(25-to 29-Year-Olds)

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, 1971-2001, In The condition of Education 2002.

Of Every 100 American Indian/Alaskan Native

Kindergartners:

58 Graduate from High School

7 Obtain at least a Bachelor’s Degree

(24 Year Olds)

College Graduates by Age 26

Young People From High Income Families

60%

Young People From Low Income Families

7%

Source: Tom Mortenson, Research Seminar on Public Policy Analysis of Opportunity for Post Secondary, 1997.

WHY?

What We Hear Adults Say:

• They’re poor;

• Their parents don’t care;

• They come to schools without breakfast;

• Not enough books

• Not enough parents . . .

But if they’re right, then why are poor and minority children performing so high in...

Some schools...

Samuel W. Tucker Elementary

Alexandria, VA

83%76%

85% 84%92%93%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Math English/Language Arts

% 3rd-5th graders meeting state

standard (2003)

African American Latino White

Source: Virginia Department of Education

68% African American and Latino

53% low-income

Outperformed 2/3 of VA elem. schools in both reading and math for two years in a row (2001-2).

In 2002, out-performed 92% of VA elem. schools in reading and 86% in math.

West Manor Elementary Atlanta, GA

68%

90%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

% 4th graders meeting state

standard in reading

2000 2002

Source: The Education Trust, Dispelling the Myth

99% African American.

80% low-income

Outscored 98% of GA elementary schools in 2nd grade reading in 2002.

Outperformed 90% of GA elementary schools in 2nd grade math in 2002.

St. James Gaillard Elementary

Eutawville, SC

21%

64%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Math% 3rd graders meeting state standard

in math

1999 2002

Source: The Education Trust, Dispelling the Myths Online

99% African American and Latino.

87% low-income

Outperformed 97% of SC elem. schools in 3rd grade math in 2002.

Outperformed 82% of SC elem. schools in 4th grade reading in 2002.

Sycamore Elementary SchoolKokomo, IN

79% 78%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

% 3rd graders meeting state standard in math (2002)

African American White

Source: Indiana Department of Education

37% African American and Latino.

62% low-income

Increased African American 3rd graders meeting state standard in math by 55 percentage points between 2000 and 2002.

Closed Black-White 3rd grade reading gap.

Lincoln Elementary SchoolMount Vernon, NY

98% 98%100% 100%100% 100%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Math English/Language Arts

% 4th graders

meeting state standard (2003)

African American Latino White

Source: Ed Trust. Dispelling the Myth Online and New York State Department of Education. Overview of School Performance In English Language Arts, Mathematics, and Science and Analysis of Student Subgroup Performance for Lincoln School. April 10, 2003

69% African American and Latino

49% low-income

Has outperformed nearly ¾ of NY elem. schools in both math and English for three years in a row.

In 2002, outscored 98% of NY elem. schools in math and 99% in English.

South Scotland ElementaryLaurinburg, NC

94%

42%

65%

92%

42%

82%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1993 2003

% 3rd-5th graders

meeting state standard in reading

African American Native American White

Source: Data provided by South Scotland Elementary School

47% African American and Native American.

47% low-income

Over 80% of both African American and Native American 4th graders met state standard in math in both 2001 and 2002.

Closed reading gap between African American and White students in 2003.

Hambrick Middle School,Aldine, TX

• 94% African American and Latino (state = 56%)

• 85% low-income (state = 50%)

• Has performed in the top fifth of all Texas middle schools in both reading and math in both 7th and 8th grades over a 3-year period.

Prince Edward County High, Farmville VA

12%

44%

74%

92%

71% 78%

40%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Passing state Algebra I test

Prince Edward High State Average

Sources: Virginia Department of Education Web site, http://www.pen.k12.va.us/VDOE/Assessment/2002SOLpassrates.html.

(715 students – 55% African American and Latino)

Minority and/or poor students in some states outperforming white

and/or non-poor students in others.

8th Grade Writing: African Americans in Texas Perform as Well or Better Than Whites in 7 States

140

143

145

146

146

146

146

146

136 138 140 142 144 146 148

Hawaii

Arkansas

West Virginia

Utah

Missouri

Mississippi

Louisiana

Texas

NAEP Grade 8 Writing 1998Source: NCES, National Assessment of Educational Progress

207

217

200

205

210

215

220

Latinos in Virginia Whites in California

1998 NAEP Reading10 Point Gap Between White Children in California and Latino Children in Virginia

10 point gap= 1 year worth of learning

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)

224223

220

225

Latinos in Virginia Whites in California

2002 NAEP ReadingNow Latinos in Virginia are outperforming

Whites in California

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)

What Students Say: Yes, some blame themselves.

But they also say...

• some teachers don’t know their subjects;

• counselors underestimate our potential;

• principals dismiss concerns;

• expectations are wretchedly, boringly low.