The Future of Automotive Technology Dr. Peter Frise, FCAE, FEC, P.Eng. Scientific Director & CEO AUTO21 NCE Edmonton, AB Sept. 9 - 2015 Western Canada Automotive Service Providers Forum Automotive Industries Association of Canada
The Future of Automotive Technology
Dr. Peter Frise, FCAE, FEC, P.Eng.Scientific Director & CEO AUTO21 NCE
Edmonton, AB Sept. 9 - 2015
Western Canada Automotive Service Providers Forum
Automotive Industries Association of Canada
Presentation Outline
Environmental scan of the auto sector
Key auto sector drivers
Major vehicle technology trends:
Materials and body structures
Powertrains
Electronics
Effect on Canada’s vehicle manufacturing sector
Effect on Canada’s automotive service sector
How can AIAC members respond?
Conclusions
The Auto Industry: - what drives it - present status- likely future trends
Go
ve
rnm
en
t
Dem
an
ds
Environmental
& Safety
Good Jobs
Better Value
= Performance / Price (quality, performance, fuel economy, safety,
durability, fun to drive, cool features,
styling, carrying capacity...)
Quality, Reduced Cost,
Speed, Production Flexibility,
Tight Capital & Infrastructure
Regulatory Compliance
Some Key Auto Sector Numbers
Total auto industry R&D in Canada ~ $ 500 M / annually (NOTE: that includes a lot of R&D done in assembly and parts plants that is
not documented nor does it have SR&ED credits applied to it)
HQP & Production Statistics:
Number of auto workers ~ 110,000 direct (2/3 in parts sector);
Number of employees in an assembly plant ~ 5-7000 people
Spin-off jobs in the economy ~ 7-8 per assembly plant job
Production Value ~ 1600 veh./day @ $30-35K each generates:
= $48-56M / day
= $290-336M / week
= $1.12-1.34B / month
= $12.9-15.4B / year
PLUS: The Focus has fuel injection, cam-phasing, airbags, ABS brakes, HID
headlights, air conditioning, PW/PS/PB, power seats, heated mirrors, satellite
radio, bluetooth™ phone, etc. AND it starts every time, and it drives better, it is
quieter, it does not rust and it costs less in 1983 dollars than the Escort cost in
1983 – and the 2015 Focus has even better statistics!
1983 Ford
Escort
2013 Ford
Focus
Curb Weight 1100 kg. 1400 kg.
0-60 Time 15.1 sec. 8.3 sec.
EPA Fuel Economy 23 mpg 31 mpg
BACKGROUND: 30 Years of Automotive Progress
But even those remarkable
improvements are not good
enough to meet the rapidly
evolving regulatory and
consumer market picture…
CAFE REGULATIONS – Complex but mandatory for future
light duty vehicles of all types & sizes
100% change in 15 years!
Understanding R&D in the auto industry:
Progress is evolutionary rather than revolutionary;
(so don’t bet too much on inventing a new light bulb)
Big changes are happening right now (CAFE & ZEV);
Speed, reliability, fiscal discipline and accountability are mandatory;
Global scale – research can be done anywhere;
R&D will be done where the business case is strongest, the skills and infrastructure exist and where program speed & reliability are the highest.
The auto industry follows a highly disciplined Product Development Process (PDP)….
Typical Automotive OEM
Program Manager
Typical Automotive OEM
Program Engineer
Technology & Business Trends in the Future Auto Industry
Sources: Automotive News, Harbour-Felax Group and CSM
Worldwide (courtesy of Magna-Cosma)
Global Production Trend > 100M vehicles
Product Mix
Business Complexity
Powertrains
Body Structures
Vehicle Safety & Comfort
Global OEM (Design Parent) Volume2010 and incremental changes in - 2012, 2015, 2020
Four OEMs at or near 10
million units
Japanese rebound from
2011 as focus shifts to
non-Japan OEMs
VW growth based on
expansion in BRIC
nations
Top 10 OEMs accounted
for 78% of 2010 output –
declining to 74% by
2020 due to the ‘China
Effect’
13
IHS Automotive Consulting
New Model Introductions: not all OEM’s are
introducing new products at the same pace…
Cars are getting more complicated!
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2nd Ed. -1986
3rd. Ed. 1993 4th Ed. 1996 7th Ed. 2007
Bosch Automotive Engineering Handbook Pages
Bosch Handbook Pages
76%
increase
in page
count over
21 years!!
Platforms and Other Business Trends…- simplify and add lightness
wherever possible
Platform Strategies
Automotive News – April 9-2012
OEMs use a common
platform for many
different vehicles by
substituting body styles
or “top hats” (from high-
end sports models to
family vans and SUVs).
Fewer variations provides
economies of scale;
Faster product
development (lower cost);
Better response to the
marketplace;
Big savings in production
tooling and assembly line
hardware.
Materials and Body Structures
- if you look after the grams, the kilograms will look after themselves!
Material use in vehicles – 1985, 1998, 2010
Bio-fibre is separated, refined &
shipped to nonwoven producer
Finished Molded Bio-Fibre
Part is installed into vehicle
Bio-fibre blended with plastic
and formed into nonwoven
Nonwoven mat is molded into the
shape of the interior trim part
Baled Stems available for
year round processing
Bio-Fibre Composite Production Automotive Parts
New Materials in Future Cars
New ultra-high tensile
strength steels are much
stronger than previous
alloys – but they are:
• difficult to drill;
• difficult to bend;
• difficult to weld;
It is easy to reduce these
strength properties by
incorrect repair methods
and this will affect vehicle
safety and durability.
Automotive News – May 6-2013
Weight reduction – forming & joining methods
Everything is optimised for weight reduction…(even the windows and the carpets!)
…and if you think that all that fancy stuff is only for high-end European sports cars…check out what Ford is doing to their highest volume vehicle…
The 2015 Ford F-150 pick-up…
Optimised Steel
Shell Construction
“Body in Black“Steel
Spaceframe
CFRP
Aluminium
Spaceframe
Advanced Light
Metal Spaceframe
Present-day
Steel Shell Body
Construction
Fully Optimized
Advanced Multi-Material
Space Frame-Shell Hybrid
Body Structure Design
Options in lightweight design for
vehicle bodies
New Materials in Vehicle Interiors
Automotive News – May 6-2013
New noise damping materials
in pastes and tapes are being
used to reduce squeaks and
rattles in vehicle interiors.
This is important because the
move to lighter structures
makes everything less stiff
and more prone to vibration.
• Repairers must be able to
renew these materials and
assemble them correctly so
that customers get their cars
back in as-new condition.
New Materials in Future Cars
New materials in
brake pads and new
alloys of iron in brake
rotors are being
developed to improve
damping, enhance
stopping performance
and reduce vibration
and noise.
Automotive News – May 6-2013
Powertrains- variety is the spice of life!
Powertrain Evolution
Internal Combustion EngineOtto (gasoline) or Diesel ICE
with automatic or manual transmission
Technology Disruption
HEV PHV EV PowertrainsICE + Energy Storage & Electric
Drive & Control
Novel Powertrains+ Energy Storage & Electric Drive
and Control
TODAY
NOW /
SOON
FUTURE?
Key Issues:
• System & total cost
• Battery weight & durability along with warranty issues
• Recharging & fuelling infrastructure (H2, CNG…)
• PEEM efficiency & cost
• Vehicle safety & dynamics
• Lightweight Materials
• Vehicle Packaging
• ICE efficiency continues to improve!
Technology Disruption
Engines, engines, engines…engines galore!
• The Ward’s Automotive Engine listing shows that there will be more than 300 different enginesproduced for light vehicles in 2014…
• …and every one of them will need to be serviced someday by somebody.
Global Engine Cylinder Count - All OEMs
32
Major changes have
occurred in the NA market
with vehicle downsizing
and a move to fewer
cylinders.
Growth of 3 and 2 cylinder
variations as well as
electrification.
Luxury German and
Japanese brands are
downsizing as well mainly
from 6 to 4 cylinders with
mechanical supercharging
or turbosupercharging.
IHS Automotive Consulting
Three cylinder engines…no longer just for odd-ball motorcycles (3 is the new 4)
• 3 cylinder engines with high power and smooth performance are here and more are coming!
• Power = 120+ HP per litre with strong torque at low speeds
• Direct injection / dual cam + variable valve timing
• High compression ratios (11:1 and even more)
• Supercharged and turbocharged
New transmissions – very complex and often hard to get right…but required to achieve high fuel economy
New Powertrain Technologies – ECUs, Turbos
New generation engines (like the
GM Ecotec at right) use VVT,
turbochargers, multiple sensors
and powerful ECU’s to control
engine functions.
This increases power, improves
drivability and reduces noise,
vibration and fuel consumption
– but it adds a lot of complexity.
• Repairers must be able to
diagnose and repair these
new technologies in future
generation vehicles.
Automotive News – May 6-2013
New Powertrain Technologies - Diesels
The excellent
fuel economy
and on-road
performance of
diesels will
bring new
models to the
market – at a
price.
Automotive News – May 6-2013
+25%
New Powertrain Technologies - Batteries
EVs have very sophisticated
batteries:
- heating and cooling systems;
- this flow is critical to protecting the
delicate chemistry of the battery and
ensuring that it functions at top
efficiency.
The figure shows a computer
simulation of the fluid flow through
the passages of one of these
batteries.
• Repairers must be able to
diagnose and repair these new
technologies in future generation
vehicles.
Automotive News – May 6-2013
Courtesy of Ricardo Inc.
The energy content / kg of different fuels varies over a wide range
– with batteries being the lowest efficiency energy storage media
presently available (about 5-8% of gasoline or diesel fuel)
The biggest problems faced by electric
vehicles in the marketplace are:
• battery cost (which strongly affects total vehicle cost)
• battery performance (range / durability / temperature
performance)
• charging system availability
Until these issues are addressed and vehicles with
performance comparable to conventional vehicles
are available to consumers at an affordable price –
without major government subsidies – EVs will
continue to struggle in the marketplace.
EV`s….unloved
by their own creators…but they are coming to the market anyway as a result of the CAFEregulations.
Electronics
- holy cow – my head hurts!
New Switch Technology in Future Cars
New technology switches
and controls to improve
function and reliability and
reduce packaging space in
vehicle interiors – and
reduce assembly cost.
• Repairers must be able to
diagnose and repair these
new technologies in
future generation
vehicles.
Automotive News – May 6-2013
Heads-up displays to help keep the driver’s eyes outside the vehicles – just like in jet fighter cockpits
Connected & Automated Cars – Potential Issues?
Security & Safety:
Is the system reliable?
Can the system deal with every on-road situation?
Can a hacker break in and harm the occupants, pedestrians, other motorists or the car itself?
Is the system resistant to tampering or improper modification – even by the vehicle owner or an authorized service person?
How fail-safe is the system (i.e. if something goes wrong, does the system shut down in a safe mode)?
Connected & Automated Cars – Potential Issues?
Security & Safety:
How could a hacker access a car (without physical access to the vehicle)?
Bluetooth™ phone systems;
Built-in wifi systems;
Keyless entry systems;
Remote car starters;
Navigation systems;
Anti-theft systems;
Cellular telematics;
Tire pressure monitoring systems (good grief!!)
Connected & Automated Cars – Potential Issues?
Compatibility:
How will different automakers ensure compatibility?
How will vehicles of different ages and levels of system capability interact on the road?
What if different national or sub-national governments impose different requirements – can the system operate across borders safely and what about one-off imported vehicles?
Privacy:
Can the system prevent unauthorized use of personal data?
Can the system prevent unauthorized insertion of data?
Connected & Automated Cars – Potential Issues?
Monetization – the Business Model:
How much will the system cost initially?
How are operating costs paid and administered: monthly subscription, or is it built into the cost of the vehicle or perhaps into the annual license fee?
What about used cars – is a subsequent owner compelled to continue with all of the subscription fees or can they opt-out?
How are upgrades/updates handled – is there a cost and who collects it, plus what if an owner simply doesn’t want the update or doesn’t want to pay for it?
Warranty – what would the warranty terms be for these systems?
Connected & Automated Cars – Potential Issues?
Servicing & Repairs:
These systems have many new technologies:
Cameras, ultrasonic, infrared, radar, sonar, GPS and possibly other types of sensors + servomechanisms for steering etc.;
A great deal of wiring that must be secure and uses new connection technologies such as fibre optics and EM shielding, etc.;
Sophisticated programming including computers and sensor integration packages which must be updated, upgraded and possibly modified in cases where trailers are being towed or the driver uses hand controls or for some other special purpose.
Is your business ready to sell and service these technologies – where will you get training for your folks and do you need new people?
Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass) surveyed automakers about connected and automated cars and recently issued his report with key findings:
Most OEM vehicle manufacturers said they were unaware of, or unable to report on past hacking incidents.
Each OEM is handling the introduction of new technology in different ways, and for the most part, their plans are insufficient to ensure security.
Hackers can get around most security protections cited by manufacturers, according to the security experts consulted by Markey (and a recent TV report showing how two guys with a laptop hacked into a 2014 Jeep Cherokee remotely over the web).
Only one manufacturer appeared able to detect a hacking attempt while it was happening and only two described credible means of responding to such intrusions in real time.
Information from most automakers indicated they wouldn't know about a hacking attempt unless data from the vehicle's computers was downloaded by a dealer or at a service center.
The Markey Report – Washington DC – Feb. 9-2015
Washington DC, AP – Feb. 8, 2015
So – where has all
of this left the auto
industry in 2015…?
Overall Auto Industry Trends:
Reduced vehicle weight / Advanced materials & design;
More diversity and complexity of powertrains with smaller engines and on-board wiring with web access info tech
Turbocharging, supercharging, CVTs, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and even 10-speed transmissions, dual clutch manumatics;
Electrification of the future vehicle with huge efforts on batteries, traction motors, wheel motors, electronic controls & chargers;
Improving the driving experience (safety & comfort)through advanced infotainment and HVAC systems;
????.
Even the ownership pattern of vehicles is changing around the world!
• Ride-sharing – Über™
• Car-sharing – ZipCar™
Who will be your clients?
• Individual owners?
• Fleet owners?
• Clubs and co-ops?
Automotive News – Mar-23-2015
Implications for the Vehicle Service Industry…
Effect on Canada’s vehicle service sector:
More diverse & complex vehicles with many new technologies;
Some technologies are entirely new to the repair industry and some do not lend themselves to “repairs” in the traditional sense:
Aluminium and magnesium are very difficult to weld and nearly impossible to bend back into shape (and carbon fibre is worse) – all of which will have a major affect on body repair;
Electrical problems will be impossible to troubleshoot without specialized diagnostic tools and advanced technician knowledge (thus, working on body electronics and infotainment systems will be much more difficult);
Hybrid and electric vehicle powertrains will be even more complex and managing customer expectations about performance will fall to OEM dealers and to the service and repair segment.
Example: Repair costs for pick-up trucks
Automotive News – Mar-23-2015
US Ford dealerships with body shops (out of 3000 total): 1500
Dealerships with body shops that can repair aluminium: 757
Independent body shops trained to repair aluminium F150: 750
Future powertrains will be much more complex and varied
making parts procurement and repairs & service more difficult;
Servicing, repairing & modifying future vehicles will require
more technology than in the past;
Personnel will need new skills to work on future vehicles
requiring extensive training in whole new areas of technology;
Repair businesses will need to make significant investments to
meet these technology and training requirements;
Those investments coupled with the increasing pace of
modern life will affect all businesses including the vehicle
repair segment.
How does this impact vehicle servicers?
What can AIA members do in response?
People have less spare time and so repair businesses
may need to do more to attract customers and
encourage them to spend time at the shop.
Automotive News – Aug. 8, 2011
What can AIA members do in response?
Repair businesses may need to offer additional services
to encourage people to spend time at the shop.
Automotive News – Sept. 11, 2011
What can AIA members do in response?
As vehicle become more complex, repair costs will go up which reduces the affordability of keeping an older car on the road – especially compared with simply buying a used car.
To compete with alternatives (such as car-sharing and used cars), repairers may need to offer financing to help customers complete major work without breaking the family budget.
Reach out to car-sharing co-ops to become their repairer-of-choice.
Automotive News – Dec. 5, 2011
Developing the best people and the best technology for the future of
the automotive industry
www.auto21.ca
www.nce.gc.ca