The Future is Here Jim Gosey University of Nebraska “Show Me The Future” National Angus Conference & Tour, Sept.28, 2005 Kansas City, Mo.

The Future is Here

Jim Gosey University of Nebraska

“Show Me The Future” National Angus Conference & Tour , Sept.28, 2005 Kansas City, Mo.

The Perfect Presentation 1. Catchy title

2. A Bold Statement

3. Cattle Pictures

4. Data Slide

5. A Quotation

6. Summary

7. Questions

The Future is Here

CROSSBRED COWS HAVE……

25% GREATER LIFETIME PRODUCTION

SLIDE OF

BLACK BULL 281

GOES HERE

Calves sired by Univ. of Neb. Composite bulls

Date # Wt. Fat REA YG %Y1:2 %Ch

6/05 37 836 .54 13.2 3.19 49 97

5/05 45 823 .57 13.8 3.02 49 84

5/05 89 795 .51 13.5 2.83 62 85

3/05 22 802 .41 14.6 2.34 82 91

3/05 24 729 .49 13.0 2.74 75 96

12/4 53 809 .40 14.5 2.35 89 81

AV. 270 802 .49 13.8 2.77 66 87

“the most reliable way to anticipate the future is

by understanding the present”

John Naisbitt

Megatrends, 1982

Summary

• Breeds are Different

• Crossbreeding Works

ARE THERE ANY QUESTIONS ?

The Future is Here ?

What will be the role of the Angus breed in commercial herds ?

Angus market share result of:

• Excellent Angus Database

• CAB success

• Wide use of calving ease Angus bulls on heifers

• Mismanaged Crossbreeding Systems

Three generations of Angus bulls used on F1 Hereford-

Angus cows results in:

3/4 Angus

7/8 Angus

15/16 Angus

and a loss of 87% of Hybrid Vigor !

How Much Crossbred Advantage Can I Give Up ???

% Total Per Calf

Lost W.Wt/Cow $$$ Deficit

Zero 525 [email protected] $ 698 -------

Half 472 [email protected] $ 647 - $ 51

3/4 446 [email protected] $ 620 - $ 78

ALL 420 [email protected] $ 596 - $102

Generally….Purebred commercial herds can only

outproduce crossbred herds in low-stress

environments

“ It is not the strongest of the species that survive,

nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to

change.”

Charles Darwin, (1809-1882)

Crossing Breeds ?

Crossbreeding

Many Traditional Crossbreeding Systems Fail

“Management Ease” Test

• Too many breeding pastures

• Difficult to source replacements

• Swings in breed composition

Swings in breed composition have led to perception of inconsistency in crossbred herds.

Composite blends of breeds can solve the problem.

*Variation: Purebreds/ Crossbreds

Trait Purebred Composite

Wean Wt. .10 .11

ADG .11 .11

Scrotal Cir. .07 .07

Backfat .48 .44

Marbling .27 .29

* coefficient of variation

Gregory, USMARC

Role of the Angus breed ?

• One-half to 3/4 of the future commercial cow.

• Contribute genetics for “high taste” beef. (tenderness, flavor, juiciness).

What is needed ?

1. Genetic estimates of fertility

(repro data on all females)

2. Moderate mature size & milk

3. Continued effort on cow

maintenance estimates

4. Tenderness data

Role of the Angus breeder ?

More than selling bulls…….

Must enhance commercial customer profitability.

Profit Drivers / Obstacles

1. Fertility / inventory / payweight

2. Land investment per cow

3. Environmental stewardship

4. Cows per person

5. Choice of calving season

6. Beyond commodity marketing

7. Beef in a healthy lifestyle

“Creativity is figuring out how to use what you already know in order to go beyond what you currently think.”

Jerome Bruner,1983

In Search of Mind,

Harper, New York

“Creativity is figuring out how to use what you already know in order to go beyond what you currently think.”

Jerome Bruner,1983

In Search of Mind,

Harper, New York

What do we know ?

• We know how to use EPD’s.

• We know how to build selection indices.

• We know breeds are similar in growth but differ in marbling and retail product.

What do we know ?

• We know British breeds are more efficient to fatness endpoints.

• We know Continental breeds are more efficient to retail product wt. endpoints.

• We know how to increase marbling by early weaning & feeding high energy.

What do we know ?

• We know how to use management intensive grazing.

• We know how to use ethanol by-product feeds.

• We know how to move the calving season to eliminate hay feeding.

Angus breeders can use theircreativity to…….

• Be more proactive in helping their commercial customers be successful.

• Learn from their customers.

“ the only truly sustainable competitive advantage is the ability to learn and adapt faster than your competition”

Jack Welch, CEO

General Electric

(1981-2000)

What happens if we do a poor job of listening to our

customers ?

or, assume we know more than our customers?

Market Share of Apples

Variety 1996 2004

Red Delicious 59 37

Golden Delicious 19 14

Granny Smith 6 13

Gala 4 14

Fuji 7 13

Other 5 9

Red Delicious Apples are…..

• Bright red

• Have desirable shape

• Very crisp

• Excellent in cold storage

• Rich in antioxidants

Only one problem with Red Delicious apples….

They don’t taste good !

What happens if we do a poor job of listening to our

customers ?

or, assume we know more than our customers?

For Example…..

• Do we really need 1700 lb cows ?

• Do we really need to increase genetic milk if customers calve in June ?

• Do we really need to develop bulls on high energy diets ?

For Example…..

• Do we really need to sell commercial bulls for $4,000 ?

• Do we really need to increase marbling, given 25% of Americans are obese ?

“Hell, there are no rules, we are trying to accomplish

something here.”

Thomas A. Edison

(1847-1931)

Jim Gosey204 Animal ScienceUniversity of Nebraska Lincoln, Ne. 68583

[email protected]