The Future Impact of IT on IS and Library Service Delivery Bob Hayward September 24th, 2004.

The Future Impact of IT on IS and Library Service Delivery

Bob Hayward

September 24th, 2004

2© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

Key Issues

What are the technology trends likely to impact information professionals in the near future?

Why is an understanding of technology hype so important?

How can information managers navigate a prudent path through so much technological change?

© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

The Long View: IT-based Transformation of Business

19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20202020 20302030

Silicon Age

Nano & Quantum Age

?

"Knowledge" Age

Mainframes

PCs

Physical Connectivity

Logical Connectivity

Embedded ConnectivityRelativeimportance

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The 2004 Innovation Pipeline Looks Good

Technology Trigger

Peak of Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

Maturity

Visibility

Less than two years

Two to five years

Five to 10 years

More than 10 years

Key: Time to Plateau

Acronym KeyLEP light-emitting polymerMPP massively parallel processingOLED organic light-emitting diodeRFID radio frequency identificationUWB ultrawideband

VoIP voice over Internet ProtocolWi-Fi Wireless FidelityWiMAX Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave AccessXBRL Extensible Business Reporting Language

As of July 2004

802.16d WiMAX

Augmented Reality

Electronic Ink/Digital Paper

External MPP Grids

Information Extraction

Instant Messaging

Internal MPP Grids

Internal Web Services

LEPs/OLEDs

Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business

Users

Location "Aware" Services

Mesh Networks — SensorMesh Networks — Wide Area

Really Simple Syndication

RFID (Case/Pallet)RFID (Item)

Semantic Web

Service-Oriented Architecture

Smartphone

Social Network Analysis

Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices

Speech Recognition for

Telephony and Call Center

Tablet PC

Trusted Computing Group

Truth Verification

Unified Communications

UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia

VoIP

Web-Services-Enabled Business Models

Wi-Fi Hot

Spots

Wikis

XBRL

Inkjet Processes

Micro Fuel Cells

Protein-DNA Logic

Computer-Brain Interface/Thought Recognition

MolecularTransistors

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Hype Cycle for Higher Education Technology

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Technology Radar ScreenLinux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users802.16d WiMAXWikis

Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices

Internal MPP Grids

Speech Recognition for Telephony and Call Center

External MPP Grids

Tablet PCInformation Extraction

Location "Aware" Services

Computer-Brain Interface/Thought Recognition

Semantic Web

Service-Oriented ArchitectureUnified Communications

UWB/803.15.3a/ WiMedia

RFID (Case/Pallet)

Social Network Analysis

Web-Services-Enabled Business Models

RFID (Item)

Transformational

Electronic Ink/ Digital Paper

Internal Web Services

Instant Messaging

VoIPMesh Networks — Sensor

Smartphone

Low

Really Simple Syndication

Less than 2 years 2-5 years 5-10 years Beyond 10 years

Augmented Reality

Truth Verification

Maturity

Impact

© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

Bluetooth MEMS Real-time DW Grid ComputingLinux WLANs Smartphones CRMPortals iSCSI SANs IP Telephony BAMInstant Messaging SCM Opteron Nanocomputing LEP UWB Software as Services (SOA)Zigbee Real-Time Infrastructure Mobile applicationsOpen Source Search Micro fuel cells Tablet PCs MMS Speech recognition 802.11g Trusted PlatformsUtility computing OLED Mesh networks Camera Phones e-ink IT self-service Network Security ConvergenceSmart dust Semantic Web RFID Tags 4G wireless Web conferencing Location aware services Ontologies Unified communications Metadata management

Some Technologies for 2005

Maturing within 36 monthsNetwork security

convergenceIP telephonySoftware as servicesInstant messaging

Established, wider usabilityUtility computingWLANs

Partial value next three yearsRFID tagsGridWeb conferencingReal-Time Infrastructure

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The wireless world: Cellular networks

Celllocation(worst case,

several Km)

Location precision of 80 M or better

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001 TDMA CDMA

GPRS

EDGE

WCDMA 1x-EV DVcdma2000

1xRTT

GSM

GPRS

WCDMA

EDGE

2GAssume 9.6-19.6 Kbps

2.5GAssume80-100 KbpsEDGE,20-40 Kbps GPRS

3GAssume 200-300 Kbps

Celllocation(worst case,

several Km)

?EV DO

CDMA GSMCDMA GSM

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The wireless world: Depth and breadth

Personal Personal AreaAreaAdjacentAdjacent

Local Local AreaArea MetropolitanMetropolitan

1M 10M 100M 1KM

Nearfield

Passive RFID

Active RFID

UWB

802.15.4(Zigbee)

Bluetooth

Proprietary PAN

Proprietary mesh

802.11 a,be,g,h,i,f(Wi-Fi)

Wide areaWide area

3G

2.5G

2G

30 –180 KM

802.16a (Wi-Max)

802.16e (mobile)

Proprietary mesh

802.20 (Mobile-Fi)

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Current Applications Toll pass systems Pet identification Access cards Retail theft protection Electronic parolee tracking

Photos source Texas Instruments

Successor to Bar Codes Can read even covered Can read while moving Can scan at distance Survives water, heat, painting Price dropping to low levels Remain in product for life

Potential Applications Locate common objects Improved asset control Real-time retail-shelf inventory Move to faster or self-checkout Improve manufacturing and

supply-chain efficiency After-sale services offerings

RFID Tag

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Five Important Technology Trendsfor the Next Ten Years

User Interfaces "Intuitive Design" SimplicitY ... Adoption

Enablers So What?

Workflow XML-Proliferation

Metadata and Standards

SCM

OutsourcingInformation Sharing

Data/App.Integration RTI, Grid Web Services

Miniaturization SensorsMonitoringand Control Nano... Displays

MEMS RFIDWireless

Wireless Ubiquitous Computing: Mobility and Monitoring and ControlLocation-Sensing

MESH Miniaturization

8yy.xx?

3/4G

RFID

Smard Cards Trust/DRM

Digital WatermarksIdentity Management PKI

New BusinessModels for Software and Infoware

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Biometrics2004

2006

2012

Peripherals

Embedded indevices/clothesEmbedded in people

Speech2004

2006

2010

Discontinuous

Continuous

Displays2004

2006

2012

LED, LCDE-Ink, LEP, OLEDRetinal projection, flexible

Augmented reality

Wearables2004

2006

2012

Special-purpose

Are clothes,jewellery, pens ...

In clothes

Interactions2004

20052006

2012

Fixed keyboard

Motion, attitude

Flexible fabric keyboards

Gesture

Enabling Technologies Are Already Emerging

Location Sensing2004

2006

2012

100M+

10M

<2M

Networking20032004

200620092012

PANs emerge

4G emerges

2.5G, Wi-Fi mainstream

3G mainstream

Dialogue

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Vision: Integrated Home Network

KitchenFamily Room

Master Bedroom Kids Bedroom

Cable Cable SatelliteSatelliteTelcoTelco

Office / Den

Media Media Center PCCenter PC

WebPad WebPad

Client STBClient STB

802.11 802.11

Wireless APWireless AP

WMA / MP3 WMA / MP3 Audio Client Audio Client

Broadband Multimedia

Coax Coax Coax Coax

Client STBClient STB

802.11 802.11

Wireless APWireless AP

Home Server - PVRHome Server - PVR

Dish & Antenna

Games Games ConsoleConsole

HD DVD-RWHD DVD-RW

HDTVHDTV

Home Automation?Home Automation?Security?Security?Utility Meters and Usage?Utility Meters and Usage?

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Definition of the home “media center”

The home media center is a general purpose capability for transferring, storing, editing, and accessing rich media content such as movies, music, television, home video, and pictures.

– Can be achieved via a single consolidated product or multiple devices connected via a home network

– Portability of content is the defining feature Alternative implementations

– Media PC– Media server(s)– Network connected high performance set top box

D

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Authentication Single Sign-OnInternal and External Content

Search and Discovery Content Management License Management Rights Management Linking

Personal Administrative Management (ERP)

Communication and Collaboration

Personal Academic Management (CMS)

24x7 Help

Security/Privacy

A Learner Centered Scenario

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Moving to new LMS

Web-Based LMS

•Acquisitions

•Circulation

•Inter-library loan

•Cataloging

•Reporting Tools

•Federated Search Portal

•Metasearch - Link Resolver

•Integration with CMS

•Digital Library

•Portfolios

•Content Management

•Digital Rights Management

+

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Library Searching - Better than Google.

Remote Web Sites

LocalWebSite

Remote Digital

Content

Remote Catalogs

Local Digital

Content

Local Catalog

Vendor Databases

e-Learning Content

Authentication

Available Resources

Federated Search Portal(Library Established Criteria)

OpenURL Resolver(defined by Library)

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Federated Search Portal

LMS Vendor Federated Search PortalDynix Horizon Information PortalEndeavor ENCompassEx Libris MetaLibInnovative Interfaces MAPSirsi IBistro and iLinkVTLS Chameleon iPortal

Reason for a Federated Search Portal•Growing e-collections•Hundreds of database subscriptions•Thousands of e-journal subscriptions•Access management of library users•Brings resources together•Allows librarians to direct users

19© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

OpenURL Resolver-Link ServerOpenURL•standardized format for transporting bibliographic metadata about objects between information services. It is the internet version of a card in the card catalogue.

OpenURL Resolver

•links users from citations to full-text, but may also link them to related electronic resources, such as search engines, online booksellers and other resources and services as defined by the library. LMS Vendor OpenURL

Resolver - LinkServer

Endeavor LinkFinder PlusEx Libris SFXInnovative Interfaces WebBridge MAPSirsi SirsiResolverVTLS Vortex

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Library and E-learning Integration

Partnership?Integration?

Open Source?

CMSLMS

© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

Recommendations

Academic libraries should plan to offer patrons OpenURL resolvers and federated search portals by 2006 in order to make best use of resources and research support.

Decisions concerning library management systems, portals and learning systems should not be made in isolation from each other.

New technologies offer opportunities as well as pose threats to the existing order and way of doing things. They must be continually evaluated and understood.

Track emerging technologies through devices like the hype cycle and radar screens – don’t jump in too early, but don’t also delay for too long to understand where technology has a role

The Future Impact of IT on IS and Library Service Delivery

Bob Hayward

September 24th, 2004