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General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.
Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.
You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain
You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Jul 04, 2020
The Future Energy System - The Role of Centralized Technologies
Morthorst, Poul Erik
Publication date:2013
Link back to DTU Orbit
Citation (APA):Morthorst, P. E. (Author). (2013). The Future Energy System - The Role of Centralized Technologies.Sound/Visual production (digital)http://www.natlab.dtu.dk/Energikonferencer/DTU_International_Energy_Conference_2013
The Future Energy System- The Role of Centralized Technologies
Professor Poul Erik MorthorstSystems Analysis Division
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
Starting point for the Commission on Climate Change Policy:
•Climate Change
•Security of Supply
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
EU ambition to reduce total European Grenhousegas emissions by 60%-80% by 2050
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mb/d
Natural gas liquidsNon‐conventional oil
Crude oil ‐ yet to be developed (inc. EOR) or foundCrude oil ‐ currently producing fields
Main Message
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
“ We can both reduce Danish emissions of greenhouse gasses significantly, and make Denmark independent of fossil fuels. This will require a total conversion of the Danish energy system”
- Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy
What do we need to do....
Source: Climate Commission
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
Main Future Trends:
• An Energy System dominated by electricity
• Intermittent sources willhave to play a large role
•Wind Power Capacity x 6• Solar??
• The Resource of Biomassis limited
• Radical change in trans-port system
• Electric cars, hydrogen, bio-ethanol.....?
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
The Future Energy System
The Government’s Energy Plan
•2020: 50% of Danish Power consumption is supplied by Wind Power
•2030: No use of coal in Danish Power plants – no oil furnaces
•2035: All heat and power consumption is supplied by renewables
•2050: The entire Danish energyconsumption is supplied by renewables
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
Until 2020 Parliament has agreedon:• Energy Savings• Wind Power
• Offshore 1000 MW• Near Shore møller 500 MW• More Land based 500 MW
• Biomass in central power plants
Two Big Challenges
•Climate Change
•Security of Supply
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
Two Big Challenges
•Climate Change•EU CO2-system (ETS)
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
0.00
5.00
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35.00
€/t C
O2
EU CO2 kvotepris
GAB-report on 2020
• 56 Gt CO2 in “business-as-usual”• 44 Gt CO2 corresponding to2 grader C• Max reduction 7 Gt CO2
Two Big Challenges
•Climate Change
•Security of Supply
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
020406080
100120140160
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Oil price
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% p.a.
World GDP
% p.a.
However......
• New resources of gas and oil in the US will impact the global markets…
• ... will USA become net-exporter of oil in 2030?
• ... and what happens to shale gas in Europe?
• ... at the same time the Global consumption of fossil fuels will growby 30-35% over the next 15-20 years
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
Source: DEA, US
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
Source: DEA, US
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
The Future Energy System
Poul Erik Morthorst
What is the future of our power plants?
1980
Today
11-9-2013
Poul Erik Morthorst
Load duration curve for electricity consumption
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Load duration curve for wind power production
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Load duration curve for electricity consumption minus wind power production
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This have consequences for the energysystem!
Which requirements do we foresee to the power system in the transition phase?
•Need for balancing wind power• Interconnectors can do quite a lot• Balancing power is getting more international
• In periods with low wind we will need a back-up• Central and/or decentralised power plants running on
biomass?• Will we politically accept a strong dependence on
interconnectors?
•Other system requirements• New facilities for system services are being developed• At least one large power plant is needed for black start in
East and West Denmark
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
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1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577 625 673 721
Hours in January '07
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tion/
Pow
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onsu
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ion
%
Where will we get the heat from?
•Without the central power plants we will have a deficit of heat in the big cities• Heat pumps for district heating• Geothermal energy• Waste heat from industry and incineration plants
•What about the decentralised power plants?• Large problems when the fixed payment ("grundbeløbet") is
running out in 2018• Solar heating• Heat pumps for decentralised use
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
Other needs to be fulfilled in the in the transition phase?
•Storage facilities might be required• Hydrogen is a possibility• Natural gas is probably the cheapest way for longer time
storage
•Reconsider natural gas in combined heat and power after 2035• Could give robustness to the energy system
•Natural gas is a good substitution for oil in industry and transport
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
11-9-2013Poul Erik MorthorstSource: Energinet.dk
Conclusions
• The energy system will change drastically over the next 30-40 years
• Preconditions are changing• More higher wind share than today• Wind power will dominate the energy system• Fewer power plants
• There will still be a role to play for large power plants• Need for balancing, back-up and storage of intermittent resources• Will the large ones or the small ones survive?
• New technologies are needed• Fuel cell electrolysis, thermal gasification…• Where do we get the heat from? Heat pumps, geothermal energy,
solar....• Complex interactions between power, gas, heat and transport......
11-9-2013Poul Erik Morthorst
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