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บรรยายพิเศษ ทิศทางอุตสาหกรรมยานยนต์ไทยในอนาคต The future direction of Thailand automotive industry โดย นางจุรีรัตน ์สุวรรณวิทยา รองผู้อ านวยการสถาบันยานยนต ์
1. Current situation and positioning of Thailand Automotive Industry
in Global and ASEAN
2. Competitiveness of Thailand Automotive Industry
3. Global trend of automotive technology
OutlineOutline
3. Global trend of automotive technology
4. Thailand Automotive Industry Development Master Plan 2012-2016
2
11. Current situation and positioning of Thailand . Current situation and positioning of Thailand
Automotive Industry in Global and ASEANAutomotive Industry in Global and ASEANAutomotive Industry in Global and ASEANAutomotive Industry in Global and ASEAN
3
World Automobile Production
2012 = 80.4 mil.units(CV 25%: PC 75%)
0.4%
-12%Hamburger crisis
Source: OICA & FOURIN
4
Global Automobile Production Ranking 2012
5
Global Automobile Sale Ranking 2012
Source: FOURIN 6
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
K (1,000) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011CAGR 7%
Overview of ASEAN Automotive industries
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Indonesia Malaysia Phillipines Thailand Vietnam ASEAN
CAGR 20%
CAGR 5%
CAGR 7%
CAGR 3%
CAGR 8%
Source: AAF (analyzed by TAI)
7
Current Situation of Thailand Automotive Industry
Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)8
Thailand Automobile Production Capacity
2.722.33 2.39
Decreased from Flood in Thailand1.88
1.681.641.57
1.27
Units
1.27
Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)9
Assembler Capacity 2012Honda 1,400,000
Yamaha 600,000
Thailand Motorcycle Production Capacity
Suzuki 450,000
Kawasaki 150,000
Total 2,600,000
Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)10
Proportion of Type of vehicles in Thailand Production
Passenger Car34%
Bus/Truck1%SUV
7%
Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)
Double-Cab37%
Pickup 1 ton24%
11
Thailand Vehicle Export to the World 2011-2012
17%
30%
10%
10%
20%
30%
40%
200000
250000
300000
350000
(1,000 units)
Jan-Dec’ 12 = 1,026,671 UnitsJan-Dec’ 11 = 735,627 Units
Growth = 40%
0%
-18%-12%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
0
50000
100000
150000
Asia Oceania Middle East Africa Europe Central & South America
Jan-Dec'11 Jan-Dec'12 Growth
Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)12
Export-Import of Thailand Automotive Industry 2012
Indonesia• Population : 240 Million• Production 2011 : 837,948 Units• Sales 2011 : 894,164 Units• Product Champion : SUV and MPV, Big Truck
Malaysia• Population : 28 Million • Production 2011 : 533,515 Units• Sales 2011 : 600,123 Units• Product Champion : Passenger Car
ASEAN Key Indicators• Population 2011 : 608.8 million • GDP 2011 : 2,153 Billion (US$)• GDP 2011 Growth rate : 4.4% • Car Production 2011 : 2.99 million units• Car Total Sales 2011 : 2.59 million units
20
Increasing
demand
High domestic demand
Increasing
capacity
ASEAN Automotive Matrix
ASEAN Countries’ Positioning in Automotive Industry
No Production Base Strong Production Base
Low Domesticdemand
Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 21
SWOT Analysis of Thailand Automotive IndustryStrength1. World Production base (Rank No.
10 in 2012)2. Supplier’s long experience 3. Competitive supply chain4. High skill labor5. Competitive in geographical area 6. Government policy
Weakness1. Inadequate of Testing , R& D
center for development2. Cost of labor in creasing 3. Trend to lack of skill labor in future4. Few number in outbound
investment 5. Know-how transfer
Opportunity Threat
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Opportunity1. Investment confidence with
government policy2. New Testing, R&D center investment3. FDI in new products 4. Growth and development of supplier
from Thailand to be the world production base and hub of ASEAN
5. AEC 2015 increase free flow of products, labor, trade and investment
6. Development of alternative/renewable energy vehicles
Threat1. Uncertainty from the climate
change2. NTBs/NTMs increasing in
competition3. Development of the competitor in
advanced technology (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia)
4. Change of new automotive technology
Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)
33. Global Trend of Automotive Technology. Global Trend of Automotive Technology
23
Total CO2 emissions are not decreasing
Need to monitoring and control CO2 in the future
Automotive Industry TrendsEnvironmental Issues
Carbon monoxide
Carbon dioxide
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EU vehicles toxic emission down but CO2 still a challenging
Source: Automotive Foundation (FIA)
Nitrogen oxide
Volatile organic compound
Sulfur dioxide
Automotive Industry Trends(Environmental Issues)
Source : International Energy Agency (IEA) 25
Global Vehicle Safety Regulation Improvement
Automotive Industry Trends(Safety Issues)
Active safety standardBrakes (Electronic stability program, ESP) etc.
26
Source : Global Trends 2020 and Beyond Automobile Use, Environment & Safety Challenges, FIA
Foundation, June 2011
Passive safety standardCrash test (Design crumple zones) etc.
Intelligent Transportation System (ITS)
Motor vehicle world in use forecast to 2045
Motor vehicle world in use forecast to 2045
27
Source: David ward (2011)
MalaysiaGreen Initiative
IndonesiaNew incentives for Small passenger car (not exceeding 1,000 cc.)
ASEAN countries focus on new technology
ASEAN Countries’ Policy in Automotive industry
28
VietnamMotorcycle andLow cost productionbase
PhilippinesTransmission production
Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)
Opportunity and Threat from FTAs
AFTA
ACFTA
TAFTA
JTEPA
ASEAN
ASEAN-China
Thai-Australia
Thai -Japan
Opportunity- Liberalize- Market Expansion- Free flow of goods, - labor and services
Thailand and ASEAN now has signed total 8 FTAs :
29
JTEPA
TIFTA
AKFTA
AIFTA
AANZFTA
Thai -Japan
Thai-India
ASEAN-South Korea
ASEAN-India
ASEAN-Australia /New Zealand
Threats- High competition- NTBs/NTMs increase- Import tax of finished
products is 0% in some FTAs which resulted in local production competition ;Ex. Import EV from China of Japan is 0%
33. Thailand Automotive Industry Development . Thailand Automotive Industry Development
Master Plan Master Plan 20122012--20162016Master Plan Master Plan 20122012--20162016