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Our Urban Future
Martin Powell
Head of Urban Development, Global Centre of Competence for Cities
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The C40 Cities Group
In God we Trust…
…The rest of us need to bring Data!
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Greater London Authority
They will Love it…
They will hate it…
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megatrends
“What is driving this change?”
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© Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved.April DAC IC COC / IC CC
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75% of world’s cities located in exposed coastal zones
Source: Center for Climate Science Research
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Human Development Index
Ecological Footprint, 2003
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What do sustainable cities look like?
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Mumbai - 34,000 people per km (sq)
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London - 4500 people per km (sq)
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cities react
“How are our cities responding?”
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4267…
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the strategy
“How is London responding?”
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London has committed to ambitious carbon
reduction targets
Profile of national targets and aspirationsProfile of London’s reductions to achieve 450ppm stabilisation
1DECC modelling for CCC. Sources: CCAP (2006) CCC (2008) * Extrapolation based on CCA trend to 2022 for non-residential buildings
Profile of a BAU Projection for non-residential emissions to 20221
1990 20502020
Ca
rbon
em
issio
ns
26% by 2020 CCA
2008
80% by 2050
CCA 2008
Target for
London = 60%
15%
Today
2030
Desired national
profile
Desired London
profile
BAU*
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• The energy efficiency measures in buildings and heating, ventilation and air-con dominate the negative abatement cost.
• Transport plays an important role in negative-to-low cost reductions, particularly in passenger cars (light-duty vehicles).
• They also present all of the more costly options rated at €20/tCO2e or more, including electric vehicles.
• Data drawn from McKinsey: a low-carbon economy, v2, 2009.
The marginal cost globally
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800 Page report! –
What is the ambitious contribution of Solar PV?
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Technical Capacity for Solar PV in London
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Energy Strategy
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London’s Energy Strategy
“There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate
change, if we take strong action now.”
Stern Review, October 2006.
Be lean – use less energy
Be green – use renewable energy
Be clean – supply energy efficiently
The energy hierarchy
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London’s current CO2 emissions
Total CO2 emissions in London (2008) = 44.71 MtCO2 per annum
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Press Office City of Munster, Germany
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Local environment
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What kind of city do we want?
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finding options
“What is the answer?”
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“You cannot solve a problem from the same consciousness
that created it. You must learn to see the world anew.”
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Over the next 20 years we will need bigger transport units carrying twice as many people
moving even faster…
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© Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved.Urban Development / Elaine Trimble
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2-tier travel
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innovation
“Can we deliver the change quickly enough?”
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48ml
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40
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0.9 40 = 1.4%
Chance of Success
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Connecting
innovations and
embracing change
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Scale
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Moscow
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Veränderungen in der Kommunikation
CC BC WI
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Veränderungen in der Kommunikation
CC BC WI
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making a place
“Can we see this really happening?”
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1986 2006 2012 2026
Po
pu
latio
n
gro
wth
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pu
latio
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gro
wth
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latio
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gro
wth
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Po
pu
latio
n
gro
wth
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celebrate success
“How do we know we are making
progress?”
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Decoupling: Rate of motorisation and GDP
(Source: LSE Cities)
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Decoupling: CO2 Emissions and GDP
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meaningful measures
“How can I contribute?”
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80 Litres
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Martin Powell
Global Head of Urban
Development
[email protected]
Twitter @martinpowell14
Thank You