The french population at 1st january 2004 Aguascalientes 4 – 6 july 2005.

The french population at 1st january 2004Aguascalientes 4 – 6 july 2005

Page 2

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Yearly estimate method before 2004

At the national level At a local level (regions and departments)

Page 3

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

At national level

To add to the 1st january population The natural increase An estimate of the net migration

P1 = P0 + Births – Deaths + Net Migration

P0 : population at 1st january of the previous year

P1 : population at 1st january

We start from a population at 1st january 1999, based on the 1999 Census

Page 4

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

To estimate the annual net migration

Four main streams– Arrivals and departures of foreign people– Arrivals and departures of french people

Annual informations only for foreign born migrants (OMI, OFPRA, Home Office)

For other streams, an estimate based on trends, thanks to a simple model

Page 5

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

At a local level (regions and departments)

A method using administrative data bases (local tax, family benefits, electricity, elections). It yields population estimates by department and regions The total is the national estimate These estimates are produced by sex and age They are disseminated with a 18 months delay : spring

n+1 for populations at the 1st january n

Page 6

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Comparison census - estimate after each census

Comparison of 2 figures :– estimate au 1st january of the census year– Census population, counted at the 1st january

Before 1999, the census population was always kept as the population

If the census population is different from the population estimate, we can think that the net migration estimate is wrong. But the gap between the 2 figures can also come from comparability problems between the 2 censuses.

Page 7

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Retropolation

When the census results are known, populations for the years between the censuses are updated :

– Populations by sex, age and marital status at the 1st january of each year, at national and local levels

– With these new data, demographic ratios (TFR, life expectancy) are updated fot the intercensal period.

Page 8

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Analyse after the 1999 census (1)

The census population (counted at the 1st january) was under the estimate based on the previous census by 480000 inhabitants.

The net migration estimate was not changed.

The gap was a attributed to a comparability problem between censuses.

To keep an equality, an adjustment was introduced.

Page 9

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Analyse after the 1999 census (2)

In thousands

Relative variation

(en %)Population at 1st january 1990, based on the 1990 Census 56 577

Population at 1st january 1999, based on the 1999 Census 58 497

Apparent variation 1 920 3,4Natural increase 1 867Net migration 533True variation 2 400Adjustment -480

Apparent variation 213 0,37Natural increase 207 0,36Net migration 59 0,10True variation 267 0,46Adjustment -53

Evolution of population 1990-1999 (metropolitan France)

By year

Page 10

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

National population estimate at the 1st january 2004 (before 2004 census results)

Before taking in account the 2004 collection for the rolling census

Each year from 2000, Insee published a population estimate at the 1st january, based on the 1999 census.

For 2004, this estimate was published in february 2004, in the « bilan démographique 2003 ».

Page 11

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

National population estimate at the 1st january 2004 (before 2004 census results)

YearPopulation at

the 1st january

Total variation annuelle

Natural increase

Net migration

Totaldue to natural

increase

due to net migration

1999 58 497 252 207 45 4,3 3,5 0,8

2000 58 749 294 244 50 4,9 4,1 0,8

2001 59 043 299 239 60 5,0 4,0 1,0

2002 59 342 292 227 65 4,9 3,8 1,1

2003 59 635 266 211 55 4,4 3,5 0,9

2004 59 900

Évolution of the population according to "Bilan démographique 2003" (metropolitan France)

in thousands annual rate of variation (per 1000)

Page 12

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

In the beginning of 2005, 2004 census results

"Bilan démogra-

phique 2003"2004 census

Population at the 1st january 2004 59 900 60 371Population at the 1st january 1999 58 497 58 497

Variation 1 403 1 874Gap census - estimate 471

Population at the 1st january 2004

At the national, once more a gap of about 500000, but with the census figure above the estimate

thousands

Page 13

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Incertainties of the estimate based on the 1999 census

Natural increase : good

Net migration : under-estimation– Omission of a part of foreign migrants since 1998,

because of changes of classification in the administrative annual data.

– temporary data for 2003

Page 14

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

How to know net migration for foreign born (« immigrés ») with census data

From the 1999 census, to estimate surviving foreign born living in France without migration

To estimate a net migration by difference

To compare with new immigrants (arrived since 1999)

Page 15

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

How to know net migration for foreign born (« immigrés ») with census data

thousands

under-estimation in Census

(%)

under-estimation on year of

first coming (%)

after correction

(thousands)

1999 Census a 4 143 4 4 309

Deaths (simulated) b 223 4 232

expected in 2004, without migrations

c = a - b 3 920 4 4 077

2004 Census d 4 510 2 4 600

Apparent net migration 1999-2004

e = d - c 590 523

Foreign born arrived since the 1.1.1999 (1)(2)

f 599 (2) 2 18 720

(1) This does not include departures before 2004 for these people(2) This figure uses results from the question on the date of coming in

Foreign born of more than 18 year in 2004 (born in 1985 or before)

Page 16

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Incertainties on the census population of 2004

Sampling error

Change in counting students

Censoring institutionnal households

Homeless people

Problems of quality of the address file, in the bigger municipalities

Checking the double counts

Page 17

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Decision

In thousands

Relative variation

(en %)

Population at 1st january 1999 58 497

Population at 1st january 2004 60 200Apparent variation 1 703 2,9Natural increase 1 130Net migration 410True variation 1 540Adjustment 164

Apparent variation 341 0,58Natural increase 226 0,38Net migration 82 0,14True variation 308 0,52Adjustment 33

By year

Evolution of population 1999-2004 (metropolitan France)

Page 18

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

How many are we ?

in thousands

Population at the 1st january

Births DeathsNatural

increaseNet

migrationAdjust-ment

Variation

1999 58 497 745 538 207 60 33 300

2000 58 796 775 531 244 70 33 347

2001 59 143 771 531 240 85 33 358

2002 59 501 762 534 227 95 33 355

2003 59 856 761 550 211 100 33 344

2004 60 200 765 509 256 105 361

2005 60 561

Evolution of population 1999-2004, year by yearmetropolitan France

Page 19

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Revisiting the demographic evolution

Evolution (annual)

1999-2004

In february 2004IP n° 948

In january 2005IP n° 1000

Natural increase

248 200 248 800

Net migration 55 000 84 000

Adjustment 0 32 800

Total 303 200 365 600

Page 20

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Including the overseas departments

France had 62,0 millions of inhabitants at 1st january 2004

60,2 millions in continental departments

1,8 million in overseas departments

Page 21

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

At the regional level

Comparison between :

– regional estimates at the 1st january 2004, obtained from 2003 estimates, by using administrative records

– 2004 census results

Page 22

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Decision

Thousands

1999 2004

Ile-de-France 10 946 11 149 11 330 11 264 66

Champagne-Ardenne 1 343 1 334 1 321 1 330 -9

Nord-Pas-de-Calais 3 997 4 018 4 009 4 026 -17

Pays de la Loire 3 220 3 333 3 344 3 344 0

Aquitaine 2 907 3 012 3 084 3 049 34

Languedoc-Roussillon 2 292 2 432 2 480 2 458 22

Prov.-Alpes-Côte d'azur 4 502 4 710 4 654 4 666 -13

Metropolitan France 58 497 59 900 60 371 60 200 171

Difference

Population in some regions

Population at the 1st january (based on

1999 Census)

Estimation at the 1st january

2004

Région2004

Census Population

Page 23

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Regions populations

Page 24

Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005

Later

In the beginning of 2006, a new comparison will be done between :

2005 estimate, published in february 2005 in « Bilan démographique 2004 »

2005 census population.

If the census population is once more higher than estimated, it could be decided to set a new estimate for 2005, more close to the census population, and we shall have a new adjustment.