The Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results June 15, 2012 Presented by Dr. Robert Chung Director of Public Opinion Programme, The University of Hong Kong.

The Freedom to Publish

Opinion Poll ResultsJune 15, 2012

Presented by

Dr. Robert ChungDirector of Public Opinion Programme,

The University of Hong Kong

This is the fifth study conducted by WAPOR and the first time executed by Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong.

Previous surveys were conducted in 1984, 1992, 1996 and 2002.

49 countries participated in 1984, 55 in 1992, 78 in 1996, 66 in 2002 and 85 in 2012.

Fieldwork period: April 11 to June 12, 2012.

85 countries/regions have participated, covering about 41% of 207 countries in the world according to UN.

The main themes of the 2012 survey are: Poll embargo prior to elections Restrictions for conducting exit polls and publication Awareness and conformity to codes or guidelines Evaluation of overall poll quality, problems of conducting

polls, etc.

Africa (4) : Egypt , Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa

Asia (27) : Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates

Europe (35) : Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom

North America (8) : Canada, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, United States

South America (8) : Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela

Oceania (3) : Australia, Fiji, New Zealand

* Countries that participated in the 2002 survey are marked in red color.

Survey results

I. Poll Restrictions

Valid base = 83

Mean = 7 days (among 36 countries/regions

with blackout periods)

More than half of the countries/regions have NO blackout periods prior to elections.

26 countries/regions had no poll embargo in both 2002 and 2012

Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Malaysia, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States

Change (no. of days)

Countries/regions Change (no. of days)

Countries/regions

-14 Slovakia +1 Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Norway

-10 Switzerland +2 Brazil

-7 Bulgaria, Slovenia +5 Costa Rica, Romania, Russia, Venezuela

-5 Uruguay +6 Colombia

-4 Czech. Republic, Mexico +10 Taiwan

-2 South Korea +14 Argentina

-1 France, Israel, Nepal +15 Ukraine

0 Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Macedonia, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Turkey

+45 Honduras

34 countries/regions had poll embargo in both 2002 and 2012

Nearly 90% of the poll restrictions were initiated by Government agency or election administration office.

Valid base = 38* changes with 2002 survey

Valid base = 84

74% of the countries/regions expected to have no change in the rules regarding polls in the next 3-5 years.

58% of the countries/regions have to disclose geographical coverage and dates of interview as a means of code/self regulation.

Valid base = 85* Multiple answers allowed

II. Exit Polls

9%

43%

22%

12%

32%

4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Exit polls cannot beconducted at all

They cannot beconducted inside the

polling station

They cannot beconducted outside close

to the polling station

No restriction but exitpolls have not beenconducted to date

No restriction and someexit polls have beenconducted to date

Don't know

% of total sample

43% of the countries/regions cannot conduct exit polls inside the polling station.

Valid base = 82* Multiple answers allowed

Countries where exit polls are

permitted

Cannot be conducted inside the

polling station

Cannot be conducted

outside close to the polling

station

No restriction but exit polls

have not been

conducted to date

No restriction and some exit polls have been

conducted to date

Don’t know

Africa (N=4) 1 0 1 2 0

Asia (N=27) 8 10 5 6 1

Europe (N=35) 19 3 2 14 2N. America (N=8) 3 1 0 2 0

S. America(N=8) 2 3 1 2 0

Oceania (N=3) 2 1 1 0 0

Total (N=82) 35 18 10 26 3

35 out of 75 countries/regions which can conduct exit polls have restrictions that exit polls cannot be conducted inside the polling station

Valid base = 75* Multiple answers allowed

49% of the countries/regions who conduct exit poll have legal restrictions that exit polls cannot be published before all polls in the country close.

Valid base = 78

* Multiple answers allowed

III. Other Polling Restrictions

Valid base = 85

12 countries/regions (14%) have such restrictions. They are Chile, China, Egypt, El Salvador, Fiji, Jordan, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Nepal, Qatar, Singapore and United Arab Emirates.

IV. Codes and Practices

75% are aware of WAPOR Code of Ethics.

Valid base = 85

About 76% have read the WAPOR/ESOMAR codes and practices.

Valid base = 85

Percentage

Yes, generally 45%

No, a few polls conform at least fairly well

32%

No poll conforms 4%

Don’t know 20%

45% conform generally to the respective codes and practices.

Percentage

Yes, generally 19%

No, but a few polls conform to other codes

4%

No other code 40%

Don’t know 38%

Valid base = 85

Valid base = 80

19% conform to other codes as well.

45% of the countries/regions conduct polls mainly in person.

Valid base = 84

52% said their governments conduct polls on policy making issues.

Valid base = 84

48% said their academics or general public can easily access poll results conducted by government.

Valid base = 60

V. Quality of Polls

18% said their polls conducted in their country are of generally high quality.

Valid base = 60

19% think that the publication of unprofessional or unscientific poll findings not a problem.

Valid base = 59

67% think that unsatisfactory samples is the major problem in conducting polls.

Valid base = 58* Multiple answers allowed

43% think that the journalistic handling by their country’s mass media is of low general quality level.

Valid base = 58* changes with 2002 survey

46% countries has some kind of “blackout periods” for pre-election polls election polls, this calls for attention.

74% expected no change in next 3-5 years 21% either forbid exit poll or never conducted any 14% forbid specific questions or subjects in

general polls 18% considered polls conducted in their country to

be of high quality 43% considered the journalistic handling of polls

by their country’s mass media to be of low quality