THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE Part 3: Early Warning Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA.

THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

Part 3: Early Warning

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

YOUR YOUR

NATIONNATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•MONITORING•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATIONR

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EM RESPONSE•RECOVERY

5 PILLARS OF DISASTER 5 PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

DISASTER RESILIENCE IS A FAILED POLICY WITHOUT THE ADOPTION AND

IMPLEMENTATION OF FIVE INTEGRATED POLICIES

(i.e., The Five Pillars of Disaster Resilience)

WHAT IS PREPAREDNESS, THE FIRST PILLAR?

(Preparedness is a state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national

scales that is sufficient to keep the disaster agents of a natural hazard

from causing a disaster

WHAT IS PROTECTION, THE SECOND PILLAR?

(Protection is a mandated state of robustness and strength for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent loss of function when a

natural hazard ocurs

EARLY WARNING, THE THIRD PILLAR,

IS ALSO ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

WHAT IS EARLY WARNING?

(Early Warning is a state of monitoring and messaging

“in the moment” that activates evacuation plans to save lives and

accelerates site-specific preparedness to protect property

KEY ELEMENTS OF MONITORING

• Land-, air-, ocean-, and satellite- based instrument packages and systems that monitor signals in real time related to the creation, formation, movement, and changes of the potential disaster agents of hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires.

KEY ELEMENTS OF MONITORING (continued)

• The data on the creation, formation, and movement of potential disaster agents generated by hurricanes and typhoons, earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires are transmitted to analysis centers for analysis and messaging, as appropriate, on the perceived threats.

KEY ELEMENTS OF MESSAGING

• A CREDIBLE SOURCE: e.g., National Hurricane Centers; Tsunami Warning Center. others

• THE MESSAGE: e.g., The threat, where and when it will happen; actions that are appropriate to go out of harm’s way, or, if not evacuating, to accelerate increased preparedness

KEY ELEMENTS OF MESSAGING

• COMMUNICATION CHANNELS: satellite –based, real-time, electronic messaging processes that connect the data analysis centers to institutions in every nation as well as global media outlets.

• THE RECEIVERS: Some, but not all of the people who receive the message, will understand and respond.

EXAMPLES OF PEOPLE TYPICALLY EVACUATED

• PEOPLE LIVING IN THE ”RED DANGER ZONES”

• SCHOOL CHILDREN • THE ELDERLY AND HANDICAPPED• PATIENTS IN HOSPITALS,• TOURISTS • HOMELESS

EXAMPLES OF THINGS TYPICALLY EVACUATED

• FISHING BOATS• NAVAL SHIPS• MILITARY AIRCRAFT

EXAMPLES OF SITE-SPECIFIC “ACCELERATED PREPAREDNESS”• HOUSES, SCHOOLS, AND HOSPITALS

IN THE ”RED DANGER ZONE”• BUSINESSES AND HOTELS IN THE

”RED DANGER ZONES”

THE GOALTHE GOAL

DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DISASTER RESILIENCE:DISASTER RESILIENCE:

CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

REALITYREALITY

UNANTICIPATED UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

LACK OF DISASTER LACK OF DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

INSUFFICIENT EARLY INSUFFICIENT EARLY WARNING BEFORE A WARNING BEFORE A NATURAL HAZARD NATURAL HAZARD

STRIKESSTRIKES

ANY COMMUNITY CAN INCREASE ITS STATE-OF-

MONITORING AND MESSAGING ON THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF ANY NATURAL

HAZARD

THE STATE-OF-MONITORING AND MESSAGING IN “THE

MOMENT” INCREASES AS A COMMUNITY’S CAPABILITY TO

UNDERSTAND WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN

INCREASES

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL

FLOODS

HURRICANES

TYPHOONS

TSUNAMIS

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

WILDFIRES

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY

GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY

EXAMPLE 1: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• HURRICANE “IKE” FROM THE ISS: “IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 2: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• CHILE: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 3: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• INDONESIA TSUNAMI: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 4: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• MEMPHIS, TN (USA) FLOOD THREAT: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PRE-PAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 5: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• AUSTRALIA 2006’S CYCLONE TRACKS: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 6: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• AUSTRALIA CYCLONE HAMISH: “IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 7: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• ATLANTIC BASIN 2012’s STORM TRACKS: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 8: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• PADANG, INDO-NESIA FLOODING: “IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 9: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• BRISBANE AUS-TRALIA FLOODING: “IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 10: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• MYANMAR CYCLONE NARGIS: “IN THE MOMENT” EARLY WARNING FAILED; NO EVACUATION AND NO SITE-SPECIFIC PREP-AREDNESS

EXAMPLE 11: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• MYANMAR CY-CLONE NARGIS: “AFTER THE MOMENT” EVAC-UATION OF THE HOMELESS SUR-VIVORS

EXAMPLE 12: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• MYANMAR CYCLONE NARGIS: “AFTER THE MOMENT” EVACUATION OF SURVIVORS IN “RED ZONE.”

EXAMPLE 13: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• AMERICAN SAMOA TSUNAMI: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION OF SURVIVORS IN “RED ZONE”AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREP-AREDNESS

EXAMPLE 14: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• CHILE 2012 TSUNAMI TRAVEL PATH: “IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN “RED ZONES”AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PRE-PAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 15: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• NIGERIA 2012 FLOOD: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN “RED ZONE.”

EXAMPLE 16: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• NORTH DAKOTA (USA) FLOOD: “IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF “RED ZONE” SITE-SPECIFIC PREP-AREDNESS (SAND BAG PREPARATION)

EXAMPLE 17: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• CORPUS CHRISTI, TX (USA) TROPICAL STORM DOLLY: “IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF “RED ZONE” SITE-SPECIFIC PRE-PAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 18: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• NORTH CAROLINA (USA) HURRICANE EARL: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION FROM OUTER BANKS

EXAMPLE 19: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• 2009’s TYPHOON KETSANA: “IN THE MOMENT” FACIL-ITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN “RED ZONE” TO A GYMN

EXAMPLE 20: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• ATHENS GREECE 2009’s WILDFIRE:“IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN THE “RED ZONE.

EXAMPLE 22: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• JAPAN 2011’S TSUNAMI:“IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN THE “RED ZONE WAS ONLY 45 MINUTES LONG.

EXAMPLE 21: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING

• MEXICO 2013’s HURRICANE MANUEL: “IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION OF TOURISTS.

CONCLUSION

With Today’s Books of Knowledge, Innovative Capacity Building to

Improve Early Warning for Floods, Hurricanes, Typhoons, Volcanic

Eruptions, and Wildfires is possible.