The Failed States Index 2010

The Failed States Index

2010

THE FAILED STATES INDEX | THE FUND FOR PEACE

Copyright © 2011 The Fund for Peace All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org The Fund for Peace Publication CR-10-99-FS (11-03G) Circulation: PUBLIC

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Background 4 What is the Failed States Index? 5 The Failed States Index 2010 in Brief 6 Performance by Region 7 Performance by Indicator 11 The Big Movers for 2010 17 How is the Failed States Index Composed and Applied? 18 Who Uses the Failed States Index? 19 Beyond the Failed States Index 21 About The Fund for Peace 22

Contents

www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Failed States Index

have serious repercussions not only for that state and

its people, but also for its neighbors and other states

halfway across the globe. Witness in recent times, for

example, the negative ripple-effects from weak and

failing states such as Somalia, Libya, Yemen, Haiti and

the Balkan states.

Since the end of the Cold War, a number of states have

erupted into mass violence stemming from internal

conflict. Some of these crises are ethnic conflicts. Some

are civil wars. Others take on the form of

revolutions. Many result in complex humanitarian

emergencies. Though the dynamics may differ in each

case, all of these conflicts stem from social, economic,

and political pressures that have not been managed by

professional, legitimate, and representative state

institutions.

Fault lines emerge between identity groups, defined by

language, religion, race, ethnicity, nationality, class,

caste, clan or area of origin. Tensions can deteriorate

into conflict through a variety of circumstances, such as

competition over resources, predatory or fractured

leadership, corruption, or unresolved group

grievances.

The reasons for state weakness and failure are complex

but not unpredictable. It is critically important that the

international community understand and closely

monitor the conditions that create weak and failed

states—and be prepared to take the necessary actions

to deal with the underlying issues or otherwise

mitigate the negative effects of state failure.

To have meaningful early warning, and effective policy

responses, assessments must go beyond specialized

area knowledge, narrative case studies and anecdotal

evidence to identify and grasp broad social trends. An

interdisciplinary combination of qualitative research

and quantitative methodologies is needed to establish

patterns and acquire predictive value.

Information is critical. Without the right data, it is

impossible to identify problems that may be festering

‘below the radar.’ Decision makers need access to this

kind of information to implement effective policies.

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for

Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the

normal pressures that all states experience, but also in

identifying when those pressures are pushing a state

towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent

issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States

Index—and the social science framework and software

application upon which it is built—makes political risk

assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to

policy-makers and the public at large.

W eak and failing states pose a serious threat to the entire world. In

today’s world, with is highly globalized economy, information

systems and interlaced security, pressures on one fragile state can

Background


praised research product of an independent non-

governmental organization that addresses key 21st

century international security challenges.

Leaders and thinkers from government, international

organizations, NGO, academia and the media use and

refer to the Failed States Index because it is empirically

based and has proven to be objective and relevant.

Perhaps the most telling barometer of its credibility is

the steady increase in the number of governments that

respond to it, by seeking ways to improve their

standing in the Failed States Index or using it as a

component in making decisions related to foreign

assistance.

The Failed States Index is based on The Fund for

Peace’s proprietary Conflict Assessment Software Tool

(CAST) analytical platform. Based on comprehensive

social science methodology, data from three primary

sources is triangulated and subjected to critical review

to obtain final scores for the Failed States Index.

Millions of documents are analyzed every year, and by

applying highly specialized search parameters, scores

are apportioned for every country based on twelve key

political, social and economic indicators and over 100

sub-indicators that are the result of years of

painstaking expert social science research.

T he Failed States Index is an annual ranking of 177 nations based on their

levels of stability and capacity. First published in 2005, the Failed States

Index continues to be a globally recognized, frequently cited and widely

Failed States Index 2010

What is The Failed States Index?


Alert

Warning

Moderate

Sustainable

1. Somalia 114.3

2. Chad 113.3

3. Sudan 111.8

4. Zimbabwe 110.2

5. D.R. Congo 109.9

6. Afghanistan 109.3

7. Iraq 107.3

8. C.A.R. 106.4

9. Guinea 105.0

10. Pakistan 102.5

11. Haiti 101.6

12. Cote d’Ivoire 101.2

13. Kenya 100.7

14. Nigeria 100.2

15. Yemen 100.0

16. Myanmar 99.4

17. Ethiopia 98.8

18. Timor-Leste 98.2

19. Niger 97.8

= North Korea 97.8

21. Uganda 97.5

22. Guinea-Bissau 97.2

23. Burundi 96.7

24. Bangladesh 96.1

25. Sri Lanka 95.7

26. Cameroon 95.4

= Nepal 95.4

28. Malawi 93.6

= Sierra Leone 93.6

30. Eritrea 93.3

31. Congo (Rep.) 92.5

32. Iran 92.2

33. Liberia 91.7

34. Lebanon 90.9

35. Burkina Faso 90.7

36. Uzbekistan 90.5

37. Georgia 90.4

38. Tajikistan 89.2

39. Mauritania 89.1

40. Rwanda 88.7

= Cambodia 88.7

= Laos 88.7

43. Solomon Is. 88.6

44. Eq. Guinea 88.5

45. Kyrgyzstan 88.4

46. Colombia 88.2

47. Togo 88.1

48. Syria 87.9

49. Egypt 87.6

50. Bhutan 87.3

51. Philippines 87.1

52. Comoros 85.1

53. Bolivia 84.9

54. Israel/W Bank 84.6

55. Azerbaijan 84.4

56. Papua N G 83.9

= Zambia 83.9

58. Moldova 83.8

59. Angola 83.7

60. Bosnia & Herz. 83.5

61. Indonesia 83.1

62. China 83.0

63. Swaziland 82.8

64. Madagascar 82.6

65. Nicaragua 82.5

= Turkmenistan 82.5

67. Lesotho 82.2

68. Djibouti 81.9

69. Ecuador 81.7

= Mozambique 81.7

71. Algeria 81.3

72. Guatemala 81.2

= Tanzania 81.2

74. Fiji 80.5

75. The Gambia 80.2

76. Honduras 80.0

77. Cuba 79.4

78. Mali 79.3

79. India 79.2

80. Russia 79.0

81. Thailand 78.8

82. Belarus 78.7

= Venezuela 78.7

84. Maldives 78.3

85. El Salvador 78.1

86. Serbia/Kosovo 77.8

87. Saudi Arabia 77.5

88. Cape Verde 77.2

89. Turkey 77.1

90. Jordan 77.0

= Morocco 77.0

92. Peru 76.9

93. Benin 76.8

= Dominican R. 76.8

95. Vietnam 76.6

96. Mexico 76.1

97. Sao Tome 75.8

98. Gabon 75.3

99. Senegal 74.6

100. Namibia 74.5

101. Armenia 74.1

102. Guyana 73.0

103. Kazakhstan 72.7

= Macedonia 72.7

105. Suriname 72.5

106. Paraguay 72.1

107. Samoa 71.1

108. Micronesia 70.6

109. Ukraine 69.5

110. Malaysia 69.2

111. Libya 69.1

112. Belize 68.7

113. Botswana 68.6

114. Cyprus 68.0

115. Seychelles 67.9

= South Africa 67.9

117. Brunei 67.6

118. Tunisia 67.5

119. Brazil 67.4

= Jamaica 67.4

121. Albania 67.1

= Ghana 67.1

123. Grenada 67.0

124. Trinidad 66.1

125. Kuwait 61.5

126. Bulgaria 61.2

127. Antigua 60.9

128. Romania 60.2

129. Mongolia 60.1

130. Panama 59.3

131. Croatia 59.0

132. The Bahamas 58.9

133. Bahrain 58.8

134. Montenegro 57.3

135. Barbados 55.4

= Latvia 55.4

137. U.A.E. 52.4

138. Costa Rica 52.0

139. Qatar 51.8

140. Estonia 50.7

141. Hungary 50.1

142. Poland 49.0

143. Slovakia 48.8

144. Oman 48.7

145. Malta 48.2

146. Lithuania 47.8

147. Greece 45.9

148. Argentina 45.8

149. Italy 45.7

150. Mauritius 44.4

151. Spain 43.5

152. Czech Rep 41.5

153. South Korea 41.3

= Uruguay 41.3

155. Chile 38.0

156. Slovenia 36.0

157. Germany 35.4

158. United States 35.3

159. France 34.9

160. Singapore 34.8

161. U.K. 33.9

162. Portugal 33.1

163. Belgium 32.0

164. Japan 31.3

165. Iceland 29.8

166. Canada 27.9

= Netherlands 27.9

168. Australia 27.3

= Luxembourg 27.3

170. Austria 27.2

171. New Zealand 23.9

172. Denmark 22.9

173. Ireland 22.4

174. Switzerland 21.8

175. Sweden 20.9

176. Finland 19.3

177. Norway 18.7

Alert

Warning

Sustainable

Mod

erate

Failed States Index 2010


every country relative to their “neighborhood.” No

regional grouping is ever perfect. Nevertheless, the

regional groupings reinforce the general scores of the

2010 Failed States Index: Western Europe is currently

the most stable region in the world whilst South Asia,

closely followed by East Africa, provides the most

concern.

If each region was adjudged by the same scale that the

Failed States Index assesses countries, then 9 of the

world’s 12 regions would fall within the “Warning”

category whilst two regions would fall within the

“Alert” category.

T he Fund for Peace divides the world into four regional groupings

encompassing twelve smaller regional sub-groupings in order to better

analyze and understand the implications of the Failed States Index for

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20 Weste

rn E

uro

pe

Easte

rn a

nd

South

east E

uro

pe

Oceania

North

Am

erica

and

the C

arib

bean

Centra

l and

South

Am

erica

East a

nd

South

east A

sia

Maghre

b a

nd

Mid

dle

East

South

ern

Africa

Centra

l Asia

and

the C

aucasu

s

West a

nd

Centra

l Africa

East A

frica

South

Asia

Average Index Scores by Region

Alert

Performance by Region

Warning

Moderate

Sustainable Ratings based on an average of the total Index scores of countries within each region.

Performance by Region


North America and the Caribbean

The Best Performers

The Worst Performers

166. Canada 27.9

158. United States 35.3

11. Haiti 101.6

77. Cuba 79.4

93. Dominican Republic 76.8

96. Mexico 76.1

South and Central America

The Best Performers


155. Chile 38.0

153. Uruguay 41.3

148. Argentina 45.8

46. Colombia 88.2

53. Bolivia 84.9

65. Nicaragua 82.5

Western Europe

The Best Performers

The Worst Performer

177. Norway 18.7

176. Finland 19.3

175. Sweden 20.9

174. Switzerland 21.8

173. Ireland 22.4

149. Italy 45.7

South, Central and Eastern Europe

The Best Performers


156. Slovenia 36.0

152. Czech Republic 41.5

147. Greece 45.9

60. Bosnia & Herzegovina 83.5

80. Russia 79.0

82. Belarus 78.7

Regional Performance


Western and Central Africa

The Best Performer


121. Ghana 67.1

2. Chad 113.3

8. Central African Republic 106.4

9. Guinea 105.0

12. Cote d’Ivoire 101.2

14. Nigeria 100.2

Eastern Africa

The Best Performer


115. Seychelles 67.9

1. Somalia 114.3

3. Sudan 111.8

13. Kenya 100.7

17. Ethiopia 98.8

21. Uganda 97.5

Middle East and North Africa

The Best Performer


7. Iraq 107.3

15. Yemen 100.0

32. Iran 92.2

34. Lebanon 90.9

39. Mauritania 89.1

144. Oman 48.7

Southern Africa

The Best Performers


115. South Africa 67.9

113. Botswana 68.6

4. Zimbabwe 110.2

5. D.R. Congo 109.9

28. Malawi 93.6

31. Republic of Congo 92.5



Southeast and East Asia

The Best Performers


164. Japan 31.3

160. Singapore 34.8

153. South Korea 41.3

16. Myanmar 99.4

18. Timor-Leste 98.2

19. North Korea 97.8

Oceania

The Best Performers


171. New Zealand 23.9

168. Australia 27.3

43. Solomon Islands 88.6

56. Papua New Guinea 83.9

74. Fiji 80.5

Central Asia and the Caucasus

The Best Performer


103. Kazakhstan 72.7

36. Uzbekistan 90.5

37. Georgia 90.4

38. Tajikistan 89.2

45. Kyrgyzstan 88.4

55. Azerbaijan 84.4

South Asia

The Best Performer


84. Maldives 78.3

6. Afghanistan 109.3

10. Pakistan 102.5

24. Bangladesh 96.1

25. Sri Lanka 95.7

26. Nepal 95.4



T he Failed States Index scores for every country are based on twelve key

indicators, the result of years of social science research. The analysis of

the individual indicators is just as important as the overall ranking.

Mounting Demographic Pressures

Pressures on the population such as disease an natural disasters that make it difficult for the government to meet its social obligations.

Massive Movement of Refugees or IDPs

Pressures associated with population displacement. This strains public services, and has the potential to pose a security threat as groups are susceptible to politicization.

Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance

When tension and violence exists between groups, it undermines the state’s ability to provide security. When security is not guaranteed, violence and fear may ensue.

Chronic and Sustained Human Flight

When there is little opportunity, people migrate, leaving a vacuum of human capital.

Uneven Economic Development

When there are ethnic, religious, or regional disparities, the governed tend to be uneven in their commitment to the social contract.

Poverty, Sharp or Severe Economic Decline

Poverty and economic decline strain the ability of the state to meet its social obligations. Includes such things as inflation and unemployment.

Legitimacy of the State

Corruption and a lack of representativeness in the government directly undermine the social contract.

Progressive Deterioration of Public Services

The provision of health, education, and sanitation services are a key aspect of the social contract.

Violation of Human Rights and Rule of Law

When human rights are violated or unevenly enforced, the social contract is weakened.

Security Apparatus

The security apparatus should have a monopoly on the use of legitimate force. When the security apparatus is fractured or when competing or parallel groups exist, this weakens the social contract.

Rise of Factionalized Elites

When local and national leaders engage in deadlock and brinksmanship for political gain, this undermines the social contract.

Intervention of External Actors

When the state cannot meet its obligations under the social contract, external actors often intervene to provide services or to manipulate the internal affairs for economic and political gain.

Economic Indicators

Political and Military Indicators Social Indicators

Performance by Indicator


6 Afghanistan 9.5 9.2 9.7 7.2 8.2 8.3 10.0 8.9 9.2 9.7 9.4 10.0 109.3

121 Albania 5.9 2.8 4.9 7.1 5.7 6.1 6.8 5.6 5.3 5.4 6.0 5.5 67.1

71 Algeria 6.7 6.5 8.2 6.1 7.1 5.1 7.5 6.5 7.6 7.5 6.8 5.7 81.3

59 Angola 8.4 6.9 5.9 5.6 9.1 5.0 8.1 8.0 7.3 5.9 6.8 6.7 83.7

127 Antigua and Barbuda 4.7 3.4 4.5 7.3 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.0 6.2 60.9

148 Argentina 4.6 2.2 4.5 3.8 5.8 5.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 2.4 3.2 3.1 45.8

101 Armenia 5.7 6.9 6.0 7.0 6.5 5.8 6.6 5.3 6.4 5.1 7.0 5.8 74.1

168 Australia 3.5 2.5 3.4 1.2 4.2 3.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.1 27.3

170 Austria 2.7 2.3 3.8 1.2 4.7 2.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.9 2.4 27.2

55 Azerbaijan 6.2 8.1 7.9 5.7 7.3 5.9 8.0 5.5 7.2 7.3 7.9 7.4 84.4

132 Bahamas 6.2 3.2 4.7 5.8 6.4 5.0 5.5 4.4 2.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 58.9

133 Bahrain 4.5 2.6 6.5 3.5 6.0 4.0 6.7 3.1 5.4 4.7 6.1 5.7 58.8

24 Bangladesh 8.4 6.7 8.9 8.4 8.8 7.9 8.0 8.3 7.4 8.1 8.9 6.3 96.1

135 Barbados 4.0 3.2 4.9 6.5 6.7 5.4 4.1 3.1 2.8 4.5 4.5 5.7 55.4

82 Belarus 6.7 3.7 6.4 4.8 6.7 6.7 8.7 6.2 7.9 6.2 7.8 6.9 78.7

163 Belgium 2.6 1.8 4.4 1.3 4.7 3.7 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.8 3.0 2.8 32.0

112 Belize 6.5 5.1 4.9 6.7 7.1 6.2 6.2 5.8 3.8 5.7 4.6 6.1 68.7

93 Benin 7.7 6.7 4.2 6.7 7.4 7.4 6.4 8.4 5.5 5.3 4.1 7.0 76.8

50 Bhutan 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.1 8.5 7.5 6.9 7.3 7.9 5.8 7.7 6.6 87.3

53 Bolivia 7.6 4.7 7.7 6.7 8.7 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.6 6.5 8.3 6.7 84.9

60 Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.3 7.1 8.7 5.6 7.1 5.7 8.0 5.4 5.9 7.2 9.2 8.3 83.5

113 Botswana 9.0 6.6 4.1 5.9 7.7 6.1 5.3 6.4 4.8 4.0 2.9 5.8 68.6

119 Brazil 6.3 3.7 6.2 4.8 8.8 4.0 6.2 6.0 5.4 6.7 5.1 4.2 67.4

117 Brunei Darussalam 5.4 4.2 6.6 3.8 7.8 3.7 7.7 3.5 6.9 5.9 7.4 4.7 67.6

126 Bulgaria 4.5 3.9 4.5 5.8 6.1 5.3 6.0 5.0 4.6 5.1 4.6 5.8 61.2

35 Burkina Faso 9.3 6.2 5.9 6.6 8.8 8.0 7.7 8.8 6.6 7.3 7.6 7.9 90.7

23 Burundi 9.4 8.4 7.8 6.5 8.4 8.2 7.6 9.0 7.7 7.1 7.9 8.7 96.7

40 Cambodia 8.0 5.3 6.9 7.9 7.1 7.7 8.7 8.3 7.7 6.4 7.7 7.0 88.7

26 Cameroon 8.2 7.6 7.5 8.1 8.7 7.0 9.0 8.0 7.8 7.8 8.7 7.0 95.4

166 Canada 3.2 2.5 3.1 2.1 4.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.2 2.4 1.5 27.9

88 Cape Verde 7.7 4.1 4.4 8.2 6.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 6.0 5.5 6.1 7.6 77.2

8 Central African Republic 9.1 9.3 8.9 6.1 9.2 8.4 9.0 9.2 8.8 9.7 9.1 9.6 106.4

2 Chad 9.4 9.5 9.8 8.3 9.3 8.5 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.7 113.3

155 Chile 4.1 2.6 3.4 2.5 4.5 4.6 1.8 4.0 3.4 2.3 1.5 3.3 38.0

62 China 8.8 6.6 8.0 5.9 9.0 4.3 8.3 7.0 9.0 5.8 7.2 3.1 83.0

46 Colombia 6.7 9.0 7.2 8.3 8.3 4.6 7.7 5.8 6.9 7.7 8.0 8.0 88.2

52 Comoros 7.5 3.9 5.6 6.4 6.1 7.6 8.2 8.5 6.8 7.5 8.0 9.0 85.1

138 Costa Rica 5.5 4.6 3.9 4.5 6.5 5.4 3.9 4.1 3.3 2.5 3.2 4.6 52.0

12 Cote d'Ivoire 8.4 8.0 8.9 8.2 7.9 8.0 9.0 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.5 9.5 101.2

131 Croatia 4.7 5.9 5.2 4.6 5.3 6.2 4.8 3.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 5.4 59.0

77 Cuba 6.7 5.7 5.5 7.2 6.6 6.3 7.0 5.0 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.5 79.4

114 Cyprus 4.8 4.5 7.6 5.0 7.6 4.3 5.2 3.4 3.6 5.3 7.9 8.8 68.0

152 Czech Republic 3.3 2.8 3.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 3.4 3.6 3.3 2.1 3.3 3.5 41.5

5 D.R. Congo 9.9 9.6 8.6 8.0 9.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.8 8.9 9.7 109.9

172 Denmark 2.8 1.7 3.0 1.8 2.0 3.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.0 2.3 22.9

Social Economic Political and Military

Performance by Indicators


Sustainable

Alert

Warning

Mod

erate

68 Djibouti 7.9 6.8 5.9 5.5 6.5 6.4 7.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 7.1 8.7 81.9

93 Dominican Republic 6.5 5.1 5.8 8.3 7.8 5.9 5.6 6.9 6.5 5.6 6.8 6.0 76.8

69 Ecuador 6.3 6.1 6.4 7.5 8.0 6.7 7.4 7.0 5.8 6.6 7.8 6.1 81.7

49 Egypt 7.4 6.7 8.2 6.0 7.4 6.8 8.4 6.1 8.2 6.5 8.1 7.8 87.6

85 El Salvador 8.1 5.7 5.9 7.1 7.9 6.6 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.7 4.5 5.1 78.1

44 Equatorial Guinea 8.4 2.3 6.8 7.4 8.8 4.7 9.6 8.4 9.4 8.4 8.4 5.9 88.5

30 Eritrea 8.7 7.2 6.1 7.1 6.2 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 93.3

140 Estonia 4.5 4.2 5.0 4.1 5.2 5.0 4.5 3.3 3.3 2.6 5.5 3.5 50.7

17 Ethiopia 9.2 7.8 8.6 7.5 8.5 8.0 7.7 8.1 8.7 7.8 9.0 7.9 98.8

74 Fiji 5.9 4.2 7.4 6.6 7.5 6.7 8.9 5.5 6.7 6.8 8.2 6.1 80.5

176 Finland 2.3 1.7 1.2 2.2 1.7 3.0 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.8 19.3

159 France 3.7 3.1 5.6 1.8 5.3 3.6 1.8 1.5 2.7 1.6 2.0 2.2 34.9

98 Gabon 7.0 5.9 3.0 6.4 7.9 5.9 7.8 6.6 6.4 5.7 7.2 5.5 75.3

75 Gambia 7.6 6.0 4.6 6.2 6.8 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.4 5.8 6.2 7.3 80.2

37 Georgia 6.2 7.8 8.4 5.8 7.2 6.5 9.0 6.4 7.3 8.0 9.1 8.7 90.4

157 Germany 3.3 4.0 4.7 2.6 4.7 3.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 35.4

122 Ghana 7.1 5.3 5.2 7.9 6.4 5.8 5.1 7.6 4.7 2.6 4.2 5.2 67.1

147 Greece 4.5 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.6 3.7 3.4 3.4 2.4 3.5 45.9

123 Grenada 5.8 2.9 4.2 7.6 6.7 6.1 6.4 3.9 4.6 5.4 5.8 7.6 67.0

72 Guatemala 7.4 5.6 6.8 6.7 8.0 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.2 6.3 5.5 81.2

9 Guinea 8.3 7.5 8.2 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.8 9.0 9.5 9.4 9.3 7.8 105.0

22 Guinea-Bissau 8.5 6.8 5.8 7.1 8.4 8.3 9.1 8.8 8.1 8.9 8.9 8.5 97.2

102 Guyana 6.1 3.6 6.2 8.0 7.7 6.9 6.8 5.3 5.2 6.6 5.1 5.5 73.0

11 Haiti 9.3 5.6 7.3 8.6 8.3 9.2 9.3 9.5 8.3 8.2 8.4 9.6 101.6

76 Honduras 7.6 4.1 5.0 6.5 8.3 7.5 7.5 6.9 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.5 80.0

141 Hungary 3.3 3.1 3.2 4.8 5.9 5.4 5.7 3.6 3.3 2.2 5.0 4.6 50.1

165 Iceland 0.8 1.1 1.0 3.0 2.3 7.2 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.1 2.0 5.9 29.8

79 India 8.1 5.2 7.8 6.5 8.7 5.1 5.8 7.2 6.1 7.6 6.2 4.9 79.2

61 Indonesia 7.2 6.5 6.3 7.3 7.9 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.5 7.3 7.1 6.7 83.1

32 Iran 6.4 8.3 8.1 7.1 7.3 5.5 9.0 5.9 9.4 8.9 9.5 6.8 92.2

7 Iraq 8.5 8.7 9.3 9.3 8.8 7.6 9.0 8.4 9.1 9.5 9.6 9.5 107.3

173 Ireland 2.0 1.6 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 22.4

54 Israel/West Bank 7.0 7.8 9.5 3.8 7.7 4.4 7.3 6.8 7.8 6.5 8.2 7.8 84.6

149 Italy 4.0 3.9 4.8 2.8 4.5 4.7 4.5 3.1 3.0 4.2 4.0 2.2 45.7

119 Jamaica 6.0 2.8 4.5 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.5 5.8 4.0 6.1 67.4

164 Japan 4.0 1.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 3.5 1.8 1.3 3.2 2.1 2.2 3.7 31.3

90 Jordan 6.8 7.9 6.9 4.8 7.2 6.2 5.9 5.2 7.0 5.9 6.5 6.7 77.0

103 Kazakhstan 5.8 4.0 5.7 4.1 6.2 6.7 7.5 5.5 7.1 6.3 7.6 6.2 72.7

13 Kenya 9.1 8.7 8.9 7.9 8.7 7.4 9.3 8.1 8.0 7.5 8.7 8.4 100.7

125 Kuwait 5.5 4.1 5.1 4.1 6.1 3.8 6.0 3.1 6.5 4.9 7.2 5.1 61.5

45 Kyrgyzstan 7.8 5.2 7.4 7.3 7.9 7.9 8.4 6.3 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.6 88.4

40 Laos 7.9 5.9 6.8 6.7 5.8 7.3 8.3 8.1 8.7 7.4 8.5 7.3 88.7

135 Latvia 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.3 5.4 4.2 3.5 3.0 4.3 4.5 55.4

34 Lebanon 6.8 8.9 9.0 7.0 7.2 6.1 7.3 6.0 6.8 8.9 8.8 8.1 90.9

67 Lesotho 9.2 4.8 5.2 6.7 5.7 8.7 7.2 8.5 6.3 5.9 7.2 6.8 82.2



Alert

Warning

Mod

erate

Sustainable


33 Liberia 8.4 8.2 6.3 6.7 8.3 8.0 7.1 8.5 6.5 6.7 8.1 8.9 91.7

111 Libya 5.7 4.3 5.8 4.2 6.9 5.3 7.3 4.2 8.3 5.2 7.1 4.8 69.1

146 Lithuania 4.3 2.9 4.0 5.0 6.0 5.7 3.9 3.2 3.3 2.2 3.2 4.1 47.8

168 Luxembourg 1.9 1.7 3.2 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.3 2.1 3.6 2.3 27.3

103 Macedonia 4.8 4.6 7.6 6.7 7.1 6.6 6.9 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.5 6.6 72.7

64 Madagascar 8.6 4.8 5.4 5.3 7.7 7.2 7.1 8.6 5.8 6.4 7.7 8.0 82.6

28 Malawi 9.2 6.5 6.2 8.4 8.3 9.2 8.1 8.6 7.3 5.4 7.8 8.6 93.6

110 Malaysia 6.3 5.0 6.6 3.9 7.0 5.1 5.9 5.0 6.8 5.9 6.3 5.4 69.2

84 Maldives 6.3 6.4 5.2 7.1 5.3 7.0 7.3 7.1 7.3 6.1 7.4 5.8 78.3

78 Mali 8.7 4.8 6.3 7.5 7.0 8.1 5.4 8.5 5.0 7.0 4.0 7.0 79.3

145 Malta 3.7 5.8 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.7 4.0 2.0 4.8 48.2

39 Mauritania 8.5 6.4 8.0 5.2 6.8 7.7 7.5 8.3 7.3 7.9 7.9 7.6 89.1

150 Mauritius 3.7 1.2 3.5 2.6 5.7 4.1 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.6 44.4

96 Mexico 6.8 4.1 5.8 6.8 8.0 6.5 6.6 5.8 5.8 7.5 5.5 6.9 76.1

108 Micronesia 7.0 3.1 4.5 8.1 6.8 6.4 6.6 6.6 2.8 5.1 5.5 8.1 70.6

58 Moldova 6.4 4.3 6.9 7.8 6.8 7.0 7.9 6.7 6.8 7.8 8.0 7.4 83.8

129 Mongolia 5.6 1.4 4.3 2.3 5.9 5.7 6.2 5.3 6.4 4.8 5.3 6.9 60.1

134 Montenegro 4.9 4.2 6.6 2.7 4.4 4.9 4.5 3.8 5.3 4.5 5.9 5.6 57.3

90 Morocco 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.4 7.6 6.5 7.2 6.6 6.8 5.4 6.2 4.3 77.0

69 Mozambique 8.8 3.5 4.8 7.8 7.5 7.8 7.5 8.9 7.3 6.2 5.4 6.2 81.7

16 Myanmar 8.5 8.3 8.7 6.3 9.3 8.2 9.6 8.5 9.1 8.2 8.2 6.5 99.4

100 Namibia 7.5 5.7 5.6 7.5 8.9 6.5 4.8 6.9 5.8 5.6 3.7 6.0 74.5

26 Nepal 8.1 7.0 9.2 6.2 9.0 8.3 8.1 7.6 8.7 7.7 8.5 7.0 95.4

166 Netherlands 2.7 3.2 4.7 1.9 3.2 3.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.7 2.4 27.9

171 New Zealand 1.5 1.4 3.3 2.1 4.3 4.0 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 23.9

65 Nicaragua 6.8 5.0 6.3 6.9 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.6 6.2 6.5 7.0 6.8 82.5

19 Niger 9.6 6.5 8.0 6.5 7.8 9.2 8.9 9.7 8.5 7.3 7.6 8.2 97.8

14 Nigeria 8.4 5.8 9.5 8.1 9.3 6.9 9.4 9.1 8.8 9.3 9.4 6.2 100.2

19 North Korea 8.5 5.6 7.2 5.0 8.8 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.5 8.1 7.8 8.2 97.8

177 Norway 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 2.4 2.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.1 18.7

144 Oman 4.7 1.1 3.0 1.7 2.7 4.5 6.0 4.5 6.7 5.2 6.6 2.0 48.7

10 Pakistan 8.1 8.9 9.4 7.9 8.4 6.2 8.9 7.3 8.9 9.7 9.5 9.3 102.5

130 Panama 6.3 3.5 4.4 5.0 7.5 5.6 4.8 5.5 4.5 5.2 3.0 4.0 59.3

56 Papua New Guinea 7.5 4.2 7.1 7.7 9.0 6.3 7.8 8.3 6.3 6.5 7.1 6.1 83.9

106 Paraguay 6.2 1.5 6.3 5.8 8.0 6.2 8.3 5.8 6.7 5.9 7.5 3.9 72.1

92 Peru 6.4 4.5 6.7 7.0 8.0 5.6 6.9 6.5 5.5 7.4 6.9 5.5 76.9

51 Philippines 7.7 6.7 7.6 7.0 7.4 5.8 8.6 6.3 7.5 7.9 8.0 6.6 87.1

142 Poland 4.7 3.2 3.3 5.9 4.8 5.0 4.5 3.7 3.8 2.4 3.7 4.0 49.0

162 Portugal 3.7 1.8 2.6 2.2 3.7 4.7 1.9 3.6 3.5 1.4 1.2 2.8 33.1

139 Qatar 4.5 3.0 5.2 3.4 5.3 4.1 6.3 2.6 4.7 2.7 5.0 5.0 51.8

31 Republic of the Congo 8.7 7.7 6.3 6.4 8.1 7.8 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.6 7.1 7.4 92.5

128 Romania 5.4 3.2 5.6 4.9 5.6 5.6 6.0 4.8 4.3 4.1 5.2 5.5 60.2

80 Russia 6.7 5.4 7.1 6.0 7.9 5.1 8.1 5.5 8.0 6.8 7.6 4.8 79.0

40 Rwanda 9.1 7.0 8.5 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.5 5.0 8.0 7.5 88.7

107 Samoa 6.9 3.1 5.1 8.0 6.6 6.2 6.4 5.1 4.5 5.8 5.3 8.1 71.1




Alert

Warning

Mod

erate

Sustainable

97 Sao Tome & Principe 75.8

87 Saudi Arabia 77.5

99 Senegal 74.6

86 Serbia/Kosovo 77.8

115 Seychelles 67.9

28 Sierra Leone 93.6

160 Singapore 34.8

143 Slovakia 48.8

156 Slovenia 36.0

43 Solomon Islands 88.6

1 Somalia 114.3

115 South Africa 67.9

153 South Korea 41.3

151 Spain 43.5

25 Sri Lanka 95.7

3 Sudan 111.8

105 Suriname 72.5

63 Swaziland 82.8

175 Sweden 20.9

174 Switzerland 21.8

48 Syria 87.9

38 Tajikistan 89.2

72 Tanzania 81.2

81 Thailand 78.8

18 Timor-Leste 98.2

47 Togo 88.1

124 Trinidad and Tobago 66.1

118 Tunisia 67.5

89 Turkey 77.1

65 Turkmenistan 82.5

21 Uganda 97.5

109 Ukraine 69.5

137 United Arab Emirates 52.4

161 United Kingdom 33.9

158 United States 35.3

153 Uruguay 41.3

36 Uzbekistan 90.5

82 Venezuela 78.7

95 Vietnam 76.6

15 Yemen 100.0

56 Zambia 83.9

4 Zimbabwe 110.2

6.5

6.3

5.9

7.0

6.3

7.7

3.0

4.2

2.6

9.1

9.6

3.0

6.3

2.0

6.4

9.6

6.2

7.3

1.6

1.0

5.8

6.6

7.0

5.3

9.2

6.9

5.1

3.7

6.0

5.6

7.9

6.6

4.5

2.2

1.5

4.2

6.2

5.7

6.2

7.8

7.3

7.5

6.7

7.8

4.2

8.0

6.0

7.8

4.1

3.9

1.3

8.0

10.0

5.9

3.6

5.7

9.4

9.9

5.8

6.9

1.3

1.0

7.8

8.4

6.0

8.0

8.7

7.6

5.6

6.0

7.8

7.7

8.6

7.9

4.0

3.2

3.3

3.0

9.0

7.5

7.0

9.2

6.1

9.5

6.0

7.8

6.3

6.5

5.6

5.9

1.5

2.1

2.8

7.0

10.0

4.1

1.5

5.3

8.5

9.8

6.0

6.6

1.3

1.2

7.6

7.3

5.6

7.4

8.8

7.6

6.0

6.5

7.4

7.7

8.7

3.8

2.7

2.7

1.6

3.4

8.8

6.7

6.0

8.9

5.0

9.2

7.3 7.3 5.1

8.2 4.1 9.1

5.9 7.4 6.0

6.8 5.2 5.6

7.0 4.5 5.9

7.7 9.1 6.8

4.2 1.7 4.4

4.1 3.8 3.8

2.8 3.0 3.0

8.1 8.2 6.8

10.0 9.6 9.9

5.8 5.5 4.7

3.9 2.3 2.8

1.6 2.4 2.5

8.6 6.4 8.8

9.9 9.3 9.9

6.5 5.1 5.8

8.6 7.6 7.7

0.8 1.3 1.8

1.0 1.4 2.2

8.6 5.5 8.8

8.9 7.3 8.7

6.5 8.3 5.9

8.0 5.4 7.0

9.1 8.7 7.0

7.5 8.4 7.7

5.9 5.2 5.4

6.4 5.7 7.5

6.0 5.4 5.5

8.4 7.0 9.0

7.9 8.2 7.6

7.2 4.0 5.3

6.7 3.4 5.9

1.6 2.3 2.3

2.5 2.5 3.7

2.6 3.4 2.5

8.5 6.4 9.3

7.2 6.1 7.2

7.3 6.4 7.3

8.7 8.6 8.0

7.5 8.0 5.9

9.6 9.4 9.5

7.0 5.9 7.3

3.5 7.3 3.1

5.8 7.0 6.2

5.3 6.9 6.2

4.5 6.9 5.8

8.3 8.8 8.6

2.5 3.1 3.7

5.2 5.6 5.0

3.3 5.0 4.0

5.4 7.9 8.0

8.3 8.0 9.6

4.4 8.5 5.0

4.8 2.5 2.8

1.8 5.0 4.4

6.7 8.7 5.9

8.7 9.5 6.7

6.7 7.7 6.6

6.2 6.2 8.2

1.8 2.1 2.2

1.8 2.6 2.4

6.6 7.8 6.3

6.3 7.1 7.5

6.1 6.7 7.2

4.7 7.5 4.3

6.1 7.0 8.4

7.0 7.6 8.0

7.3 7.2 4.8

5.2 7.0 5.0

4.8 7.8 5.8

5.4 7.4 6.6

6.9 8.4 7.2

6.6 6.2 6.3

3.3 5.7 3.9

1.8 4.5 3.0

1.1 5.4 4.0

5.6 5.0 4.0

6.6 8.5 7.0

6.7 7.6 5.8

5.9 6.5 6.6

7.2 8.6 7.9

7.1 7.3 8.0

9.7 9.4 9.6

7.5 4.1 5.1

6.3 6.2 7.8

7.6 6.2 6.1

5.6 6.9 7.8

6.1 4.3 5.0

9.1 7.1 6.7

2.8 0.9 2.9

4.1 2.2 4.8

3.4 1.4 3.4

8.3 4.8 7.0

9.6 10.0 9.7

8.4 7.0 5.6

3.6 3.3 3.9

3.7 2.8 6.3

7.3 9.4 9.6

8.8 9.8 9.9

6.0 3.7 6.4

9.1 4.2 4.2

2.7 2.7 1.3

2.4 1.5 3.3

5.9 8.9 8.3

8.0 6.2 6.9

8.2 7.3 6.4

6.7 6.7 7.8

8.6 9.1 7.5

8.0 6.2 5.6

5.6 3.1 4.9

5.7 3.4 5.4

6.3 6.3 8.0

6.8 4.6 6.3

8.7 8.9 8.5

5.6 3.1 6.9

4.4 3.2 4.7

3.2 3.0 4.1

3.1 3.2 3.4

4.3 1.3 2.0

7.7 5.1 7.4

6.3 5.1 6.8

6.9 5.2 5.3

8.6 8.3 8.2

9.0 7.3 5.4

9.4 8.6 8.8



Alert

Warning

Mod

erate

Sustainable



1. D. R. Congo

2. Somalia

3. Niger

4. Afghanistan

5. Chad

177. Iceland

Best Performer Demographic

Pressure

Best and Worst Performers by Indicator

Not every nation is included in the Failed States Index, which only measures nations recognized by the United

Nations and, in some cases, excludes tiny nations due to a dearth of data. Hence, some countries are not included:

Andorra

Dominica

Kiribati

Liechtenstein

Marshall Islands

Monaco

Nauru

Palau

St. Kitts & Nevis

St. Lucia

St. Vincent

San Marino

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Greenland

Somaliland

Taiwan

Vatican City

Western Sahara

Why Are Some Countries Missing?

UN Member States excluded due to lack of data Non-UN Members

1. Sudan

2. Chad

3. Somalia

4. Afghanistan

5. Sri Lanka

177. Iceland

Best Performer

Group

Grievance

1. Sudan

2. D. R. Congo

3. Zimbabwe

4. Chad

5. Nigeria

177. Finland

Best Performer

Uneven

Development

1. Somalia

2. Sudan

3. D. R. Congo

4. Chad

5. Sri Lanka

177. Singapore

Best Performer

Refugees

and IDPs

1. Zimbabwe

2. Iraq

3. Sudan

4. Haiti

5. Guinea

177. United States

Best Performer

Human

Flight

1. Zimbabwe

2. North Korea

3. Somalia

4. Haiti

5. Malawi

177. Sweden

Best Performer

Poverty and

Decline

1. Somalia

2. Afghanistan

3. North Korea

4. Chad

5. Sudan

177. Finland

Best Performer Legitim

acy of

the State

1. Somalia

2. Sudan

3. Chad

4. North Korea

5. Guinea

177. Denmark

Best Performer Human Rights

and Rule of Law

1. Somalia

2. Sudan

3. Chad

4. Iraq

5. Pakistan

177. Finland

Best Performer Factionalized

Elites

1. Niger

2. Chad

3. Somalia

4. North Korea

5. Haiti

177. Norway

Best Performer

Public

Services

1. Somalia

2. Chad

3. Sudan

4. D. R. Congo

5. Afghanistan

177. Finland

Best Performer

Security

Apoparatus

1. Afghanistan

2. Chad

3. D. R. Congo

4. Somalia

5. Sudan

177. New Zealand

Best Performer

External

Intervention


E very year, a number of countries improve their score and ranking in the

Failed States Index; similarly, other countries worsen their score and

position. Below is a list of the major movers between 2009 and 2010.

Move

2009

Positio

n

2010

Positio

n

+16 Belarus 66th 82nd

+12 Albania 109th 121st

+9 Syria 39th 48th

+9 Russia 71st 80th

+8 Serbia/Kosovo 78th 86th

+6 Egypt 43rd 49th

+6 Turkmenistan 59th 65th

+6 Brazil 113th 119th

Move

2009

Positio

n

2010

Positio

n

-14 Honduras 90th 76th

-9 Cambodia 49th 40th

-8 Fiji 82nd 74th

-8 India 87th 79th

-7 Mauritania 46th 39th

-7 South Africa 122nd 115th

-6 Eritrea 36th 30th

-6 Iran 38th 32nd

-6 Djibouti 74th 68th

-6 El Salvador 91st 85th

Move

2009

Score

2010

Score

-3.8 Zimbabwe 114.0 110.2

-3.6 Belarus 82.3 78.7

-2.9 Albania 70.0 67.1

-2.6 Lebanon 93.5 90.9

-2.3 Uzbekistan 92.8 90.5

-2.1 Myanmar 101.5 99.4

-2.0 Bangladesh 98.1 96.1

-2.0 Bahamas 60.9 58.9

Move

2009

Score

2010

Score

+3.0 Eritrea 90.3 93.3

+2.8 Honduras 77.2 80.0

+2.4 Guinea-Bissau 94.8 97.2

+2.2 Iran 90.0 92.2

+1.9 Yemen 98.1 100.0

+1.8 Italy 43.9 45.7

+1.7 Fiji 78.8 80.5

+1.5 Sierra Leone 92.1 93.6

+1.5 Oman 47.2 48.7

Improving (by Position) Improving (by Score)

Worsening (by Position) Worsening (by Position)

The Big Movers for 2010


How is the Failed States Index Composed and Applied?


of reports and information from around the world,

detailing the existing social, economic and political

pressures faced by each of the 177 countries that we

analyze.

The Fund for Peace’s software performs content

analysis on this collected information. Through

sophisticated search parameters and algorithms, the

CAST software separates the relevant data from the

irrelevant. Guided by 12 primary social, economic and

political indicators (each split into an average of 14 sub-

indicators), the CAST software analyzes the collected

information using specialized search terms that flag

relevant items. This analysis is then converted using an

algorithm into a score representing the significance of

each of the various pressures for a given country.

The content analysis is further triangulated with two

other key aspects of the overall assessment process:

quantitative analysis and qualitative inputs based on

major events in the countries examined. The scores

produced by the Fund for Peace’s software are then

compared with a comprehensive set of vital statistics—

as well as human analysis—to ensure that the software

has not misinterpreted the raw data. Though the basic

data underpinning the Failed States Index is already

freely and widely available electronically, the strength

of the analysis is in the methodological rigor and the

systematic integration of a wide range of data sources.

T he strength of the Failed States Index is its ability to distill millions of

pieces of information into a form that is relevant as well as easily

digestible and informative. Daily, the Fund for Peace collects thousands

A screenshot of the CAST software content analysis.

Who Uses The Failed States Index?


world and provides an important overview of the

relative stability of countries throughout the world.

Beyond the Failed States Index, the underlying

framework is also a useful tool for country-, region–

and indicator-specific analysis.

The Failed States Index is featured annually in Foreign

Policy magazine and gets wide attention in the U.S. and

global media. It also attracts attention from

governments, academics, international organizations,

businesses and civil society groups.

The Failed States Index enjoys global reach. The edition

was cited in 150 publications in 13 languages within its

first week of being posted on The Fund for Peace

website. In 2009, the Failed States Index was covered in

317 media outlets in 73 countries.

The Failed States Index is noticed and used by the

people who matter. It has been cited by the U.S.

Secretary of State in Congressional testimony and by

the Secretary of Defense in the Quadrennial Defense

Review. The Failed States Index has been the catalyst

for a cabinet-level review of state institutions and

capacity in Moldova and as a call to attention by the

political opposition in Egypt.

The Failed States Index and the CAST framework is

frequently used by agencies from the World Bank to oil

and mining companies, from government agencies in

the United States and around the globe.

T he Failed States Index and the CAST framework are used extensively by

a variety of governments, institutions and corporations around the

world. The Failed States Index itself is an annual snapshot of the entire

U.S. Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton’s November 2010

presentation to Congress of her strategic

planning initiative for the State

Department included a slide drawn from

the Failed States Index.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’

presentation of the Defense Department’s

“Quadrennial Defense Review” in 2010

contained material based on the Failed

States Index.

USAID requested that the Failed States

Index be made an integral part of their

Country Analytic Support project,

www.countrycompass.com

The staffs of the World Bank and

the International Monetary Fund

use the Failed States Index in

their analysis of regional and

national developments.

Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of

the IAEA and 2005 Nobel Peace Prize

Winner, said in 2010, “Egypt's presence

near the top of The Failed States Index is

a disaster that demands the urgent

attention of the Egyptian people.”

In response to his country’s position in

the 2007 Failed States Index, Moldovan

Prime Minister Vasile Tarleve formed a

task force to study the causes for

Moldova’s scores.

Some Fans of the Failed States Index

The strength of the Failed States Index is that it is more

than a list of countries. Certainly, the ranking of

states—from 2010’s most stable, Norway, to the least

stable, Somalia—draws substantial press attention and

comment. But what policy makers, international

institutions, corporations, academics and analysts focus

on most is the underlying data from the 12 indicators

and the many more sub-indicators. This is the kind of

information that not only explains the rankings

themselves, but also key areas that need to be

addressed to mitigate problems and improve state

functioning and stability. It can also help in the

consideration of public and private sector investment

priorities as well as help private sector firms better

identify and manage political and economic risk. As we

have seen in several countries, this underlying data can

also be used as a report card on how a government is

meeting key challenges.


Who Uses the Failed States Index?

International Institutions

• World Bank

• International Monetary Fund

• United Nations

• NATO

• African Union

U.S. Government Agencies

• U.S. Agency for International Development

• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

• U.S. Army Pacific Command (PACOM)

• U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

• U.S. Department of State

• U.S. Marine Corps

They All Use the Failed States Index

Foreign Government Agencies

• Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusam-

menarbeit und Entwicklung (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation & Development), Germany

• Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken (Ministry of

Foreign Affairs), Netherlands Academic and Research Institutions

• Council on Foreign Relations

• National Defense University

• U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP)

Corporate Sector

• Multinational oil and mining companies use the

Failed States Index as an integral part of their development of global security strategy.

regional- and provincial-level analysis.

Along with the Failed States Index, The Fund for

Peace’s Conflict Assessment Software Tool (CAST) has

been the foundation of the Fund for Peace’s Country

Assessments Reports Service and Country Profiles

Program, using the content analysis to provide in-

depth assessments country-by-country.

CAST has been used to perform analysis at a sub-

regional level, from providing an assessment following

the floods in Pakistan’s Sindh province to

demonstrating how the situations in Mindanao in the

south of the Philippines and Luzon in the north can be

significantly different. Such regional-level analysis is

critical in properly understanding state instability. As

nations vary greatly from one another, often the

regions within countries will also vary greatly. A

country with a significant amount of instability in one

region may be perceived as itself unstable overall,

although the rest of the country is not experiencing

instability. Instances such as these may include

countries like Colombia (where although the FARC

insurgency continues deep in the jungles and along the

frontiers, the major cities such as Bogota, Medillin, Cali

and Cartagena enjoy relative calm) or the Philippines

(where the situation in the capital Manila is

significantly different to that experienced in the

southern island of Mindanao). This regional analysis

can not only further expand the understanding of a

country’s situation, but can also be used to highlight

precisely where the pressure points exist for a country,

and under precisely what conditions.

This analysis, coupled with regional contextualization,

provides a unique informational tool for policy-makers

to identify serious pressures and to enact sensible, well-

informed policies.

T he Failed States Index itself is just one of the many capabilities of The

Fund for Peace’s content analysis software. The software has many other

applications including specific risk assessment, and in-depth national-,

Below: Demographic pressures differentiated regionally throughout Pakistan, pre-flood (left) and post-flood (right).

Above: An analysis of various indicators applying to Sindh province, pre-flood (left) and post-flood (right)

Regional Analysis: Sindh Province, Pakistan

Sind

h

Sind

h

N.W.F.

N.W.F.

Punjab

Punjab

Balochistan Balochistan

Beyond The Failed States Index


About The Fund for Peace

We promote sustainable security through research,

training and education, engagement of civil society,

building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing

innovative technologies and tools for policy makers.

A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning

field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of

weak and failing states. Our objective is to create

practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation

that are useful to decision-makers.

What Makes Us Unique

• The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to

the issues stemming from weak and failing states.

We work at both the grassroots level with civil

society actors and at policy levels with key

decision makers.

• The Fund for Peace has worked in over 50

countries with a wide range of partners in all

sectors: governments, international organizations,

the military, nongovernmental organiza-

tions, academics, journalists, civil society net-

works, and the private sector.

• Combining social science techniques with

information technology, we have produced the

patented Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST),

a content analysis software product that provides a

conceptual framework and a data gathering

technique for measuring conflict risk.

• We produce The Failed States Index, an annual

ranking of 177 countries across 12 indicators, that

is published by Foreign Policy magazine.

Our Approach

The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives

focused on our central objective of promoting sustain-

able security, the ability of a state to solve its own

problems peacefully without an external military or

administrative presence. Our activities relate to six

interconnected themes: Conflict Assessment; Early

warning and State Building; Peace and Stability

Operations; Foreign Policy; Civil Society & Human

Rights; and Sustainable Development.

T he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit

research and educational organization that works to prevent violent

conflict and promote sustainable security.


CR-10-99-FS

www.fundforpeace.org

The Failed States Index 2010

Documents