The External Environment for Developing Countries · (saar), steepest since the first quarter of 1982. GDP could fall 4% in Japan and 3.5% in the Euro Area. Signs of slowdown among

December 18, 2008

This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Hans Timmer, and comprising Mick Riordan (G-3 countries, foreign exchange, overall edits), John Baffes (trade), Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savescu (production) and Gauresh Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by

the World Bank Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries December 2008

Overview

OECD GDP is likely to decline sharply in the fourth quarter as the effects of the financial crisis–notably lack of access to finance and credit flows–compound underlying weakness in domestic demand. Earlier strength in exports supported largely by demand in developing countries, is giving way quickly to decline (14% fall for the United States in October (saar)). Households have retrenched, business spending is lapsing and industrial production is in negative territory across the high-income countries. Economic analysts posit a range of 4-6% decline in U.S. GDP for the final quarter of 2008 (saar), steepest since the first quarter of 1982. GDP could fall 4% in Japan and 3.5% in the Euro Area.

Signs of slowdown among developing countries multiply evident most clearly in industrial production, now falling for the aggregate of developing countries. China’s output dropped 12% in November (saar) from recent advances of 22% in May 2008. Fading export growth across countries is a key factor. Exports from China (dollars) fell almost one-half to growth of 12.5% in November (y/y) from 24% as recently as July; exports from India grew 9.5% in October versus 36% in June. Of some 30 developing countries for which quarterly NIA data is available, 11 witnessed a growth slowdown of more-than 2 points from the second to the third quarters of 2008; 6 saw outright GDP decline (saar).

Capital flows to emerging markets came to a halt in October and November, with no recorded activity in either bond or equity (IPO) markets. Flows are down 45% over the year through November (y/y). Creditworthiness has deteriorated, with 17 downgrades in the past 3 months, and refinancing risk for 2009 has escalated with $210 billion in developing country bonds and loans maturing in the year.

Commodity prices continue to plummet, denting terms of trade further for agriculture- metals and oil exporters while offering substantial relief for importers. Since peaking in July, oil prices plunged more-than $100/bbl (75%) to $40/bbl on the back of a sharp falloff in global demand. Agricultural prices are down more-than one-third since June, while copper and nickel are off more than 80% from their highs of 2007 as construction, auto output and investment outlays falter on a global basis.

A deep synchronous downturn for OECD countries in fourth quarter...

growth GDP growth **, percentage change, q/q saar

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4E

Source: World Bank and National Agencies ** Q4 JPMorgan.

Japan

Euro Area

United States

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08

...with developing-country productionnow in decline, led by China

industrial production percentage change, saar

Source: World Bank data.

China

Developing excl China

Developing

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88107 v.1

December 18, 2008 External Environment for Developing Countries page 2

Global Indicators

Global Indicators (Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2006 2007 2008e 2009f

GDP volume: World 4.0 3.7 2.5 0.9 Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 5.0 4.9 3.6 1.9 High-income countries 2.9 2.4 1.3 -0.1 Developing countries 8.8 9.7 6.3 4.5 Industrial production: World 4.5 4.4 3.0 ... High-income countries 2.9 2.4 0.7 ... Developing countries 8.8 9.7 8.5 ...

Export volume (GNFS): World 9.8 7.5 6.2 -2.1 High-income countries 8.6 6.2 5.9 -3.7 Developing countries 13.2 10.8 7.0 2.1 Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 1.6 5.5 9.0 2.1 Oil ($/bbl) 64.3 71.1 101.2 74.5 Non-oil commodities 29.1 17.0 22.4 -23.2

Nominal interest rates: $LIBOR (percent p.a.) 5.2 5.3 3.3 1.9 LIBOR (percent p.a.) 3.1 4.3 4.9 3.8 Financial flows FDI ($billion) 365 532 Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 494 652 377 Equity placement ($bn) 111 194 51 Bond financing ($bn) 137 146 73 Lending ($bn) 246 312 232

Source: DECPG, December 2008. Estimates and projections based on GEP-2009, released 12-9-2008.

Note(s): a. Gross inflows 2008 estimated on data to date. Figures in bold represent changes this month.


United States U.S. in recession. Amid heating up of the financial crisis in the United States and abroad, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, announced that the United States had entered a period of declining activity as of a year before. And following strong 2.8% GDP growth in the second quarter (supported largely by net exports), private sector demand retrenched in the third quarter. Personal spending dropped a massive 3.7% (saar) and investment fell 5.7% (with declines in housing reaccelerating). Net exports supplied a full point of growth to salvage a modest 0.5% GDP decline; but fourth quarter outturns will be much less favorable. GDP to fall sharply in final quarter. Weakness in U.S. demand has been magnified by the inability of business and households to access credit, despite Fed and Treasury measures to increase liquidity and incentivize banks to lend. As a result, indicators for October and November have been among the worst seen since the early 1980s. Jobs contracted by more than 500,000 in November, carrying losses for 2008 to 1.9 million; retail sales dropped a record 2.9% in October (m/m) down 17.5% in the three months to November (saar). And factory output, responding to these developments as well as faltering U.S. exports (14% decline in October), dropped by a stunning 18% in November (saar). GDP may fall by 4-to 5% (saar), worst since the 6% drop during the first quarter of 1982. The Fed’s new game plan. The FOMC meeting of December 16 ushered in a new world of Fed policy aimed at getting the flow of credit- and the economy moving using tools outside the box of standard measures. With the Fed Funds target rate cut to a range of 0.0 to 0.25%, the bank can move no further on the interest rate front. Rather, the Fed could purchase potentially several trillions of dollars of U.S. Treasuries, as well as private-sector assets to generate liquidity and target credit-thirsty segments such as mortgages, auto-finance and small business loans.

0.9

2.8

-0.5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Q1-2 008 Q2-20 08 Q3-2 00 8

Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations.

U.S. Q3-GDP drops 0.5% on massiveretrenchment by the consumer

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08

Source: Thomson/Datastream.

Fed cuts Funds target to 0.0-to 0.25% with heavy “flight to quality” underway

Fed Funds target- and effective rates; T-note- 2yr, T-note 10 yr

Fed Funds Target

LIBOR 3 months

T-note 10-year

T-note 2-yr

Key indicators point to deepU.S. recession in fourth quarter

retail sales, mfgr IP % saar [L], change in employment [R]

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

Source: Departments of Commerce and Labor; Federal Reserve.

Industrial production [L]

Retail sales [L]

Change in non-farm employment (3mma, ‘000) [R]


Japan

Trade, investment hit Japanese GDP. Following an unusually sharp 3.7% falloff in second quarter growth–as both consumer and business spending retrenched–GDP for the third quarter fell once again, by a more moderate but still substantial 1.8% (saar). Positive developments included a return to growth in household outlays and a halt to decline in residential investment; these were offset by negative contributions from trade (knocking 0.4% from growth, contrasted with a 2 point boost in the first quarter) as well as further large-scale reductions in business capital spending. As in the United States and Europe, recent indicators have taken a sharp turn for the worse, and prospects for the fourth quarter are not encouraging. Hard times in fourth quarter. Japan is now suffering a melt-down in export performance as growth conditions in its main trading partners (China, the United States and Europe) have taken a turn for the worse, and as the yen has appreciated to 14-year highs vis-à-vis the dollar as “carry trades” continue to unwind (earlier investor borrowings in yen channeled into EM assets, now withdrawn and “parked” again in yen). Export volumes declined for 6 months in succession, down 16.4% as of October (saar). Manufacturing output has followed in step, and business sentiment as well as capital spending intentions have plummeted. GDP appears set for a steep 4% drop in the final quarter of 2008. Bank lending picks up. The Bank of Japan reduced its policy rate by 20 basis points from 0.3% to 0.1% on December 19, and announced plans to buy Japanese government bonds, as well as (for the first time) commercial paper. To a large degree, the BOJ’s actions are echoing those already undertaken by the Federal Reserve at the recent FOMC meeting. At the same time, some encouraging signs of revival in bank lending have emerged, increasing to growth of 3.5% in November (y/y). The GOJ also announced that- to keep this trend in place, it will purchase up to ¥20 trillion (about $25 billion) in shares of financial institutions to bolster capital positions.

2.4

-3.7

-1.8

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1-2 008 Q2-20 08 Q3-2 00 8

Source: Japan Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations.

Japan GDP drops 1.8% in Q3 oncontinuing negative trade outcomesgrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

ConsumptionGovernmentInvestment

Stocks Net Exports

Japan’s export strength gives way to large-scale declines

export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08

Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office.

Industrial production

Export volumes

Japan’s bank lending starting to growbroad money and total bank lending ch% y/y

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08

Source: Bank of Japan.

Bank lending

Broad money


Euro Area

GDP to correct sharply. Euro Area “headline” growth registered a modest 0.8% decline for the third quarter, a second consecutive period of falling output–hence “recession”. Underlying conditions evident in the GDP report, however, point to a more severe falloff for the fourth-quarter. Stock-building (unwanted) contributed an extraordinary 1.4 points to GDP; contributions from trade (0.8 points in the past three quarters) subtracted a massive 2.3 points, while household and business outlays were moribund. Outcomes across countries varied but most featured a step-down–for example to decline of 2.1% from contraction of 1.7% in both Germany and Italy (saar). Conditions have since deteriorated to suggest a 3.5% to 4% GDP decline for the final quarter of 2008 (saar). [See EC’s Quarterly Report released December 19]. Trade faltering. Exports from Germany (and the Euro Zone) are now in decline as earlier strength in emerging-market demand–especially from Central and Eastern Europe–has dissipated with slowing activity there. Germany’s export orders dropped 6.2% in October (m/m), the most on record, carrying orders to annual decline of near 30% (saar). In turn, export volumes slipped into negative territory and factory output has dropped in 3 of the last 4 months to decline 3.5% by October (saar). With trade Europe’s pillar of growth in 2007, its decline has set off a down-spiral in business confidence (witness IFO and INSEE surveys for December). This has prompted policymakers to examine potential for more fiscal stimulus; as the ECB reduced and reset policy rates on December 18 to revive bank lending. Easing inflation. With the euro’s more recent gains against the dollar (see Currencies) coupled with the 75% plunge in crude oil prices since July, the Euro Area has enjoyed a substantial fall in HICP inflation. The energy CPI component declined from 17% in July (y/y) to 0.7% in November, carrying overall HICP down from 4% to 2.1%. This is welcome news- that in the near-term may provide the ECB with room for additional rate cuts; and at some point in 2009 may help to revive household purchasing power and shore up consumer spending.

2.7

-0.7 -0.8

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1-2 008 Q2-20 08 Q3-2 00 8

Source: Eurostat and DECPG calculations.

Net exports pull Euro Area GDPfurther into recession in 3rd quarter

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

Change in stocks Government

ConsumptionInvestment Net Exports

German exports now in decline following sharp falloff in foreign orders

export volume ch% 3mma y/y [L] and export orders, ch% saar [R]

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08-35-28

-21

-14

-7

0

7

14

21

28

35

Source: Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.

Export volume [L]

Export orders [R]

Inflation– an eventual “silver lining”for Europe?

HICP total ch% y/y [L], HICP-energy, ch% y/y [R]

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08-5

0

5

10

15

20

Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.

HICP-Total [L]

HICP-Energy [R]


Industrial Production Global downturn pushes OECD output to negative ground. Weak performance in the manufacturing sector highlights the depth of recession in the high-income countries. U.S. IP plunged 18.3% percent (saar) in November, on the heels of slumping consumer spending and faltering exports. In Japan the picture is equally disheartening, with output contracting 14.3% on the same basis; more moderate declines of 5.2% are underway in Europe. Momentum in the OECD centers turned sharply negative in the fall, and declines are now close to those registered during the recession of 2001 for Europe and Japan; the plunge in U.S. factory output now well exceeds the earlier falloff of 6-7%. And monthly PMI surveys signal that odds for near-term recovery in activity are slim. Exporting economies feel the woes of their trade partners. As OECD imports have contracted for some time, manufactures’ exporting economies, notably in East Asia, have been hard hit. The overlay of economic downturn with financial crisis and a hard-landing for the “high-tech cycle” has compounded the situation. Moreover, tighter credit conditions have affected trade volumes adversely, as letters of credit and other sources of trade finance have become scarce. China for example registered the steepest falloff in production growth in almost a decade in November, at a 12% annualized pace of decline (saar). Production through October declined 8.2% in Indonesia, 6.6% in Malaysia and 7.2% for East Asia as a whole. Momentum falters across developing regions. Other developing regions are sharing a similar fate as East Asia, with momentum in all regions falling into negative territory. A more pronounced downturn may be found in Europe and Central Asia. Weak demand from the European Union has taken a heavy toll, with output in Turkey, Hungary and several of the Baltic states hard hit. Among Latin American economies, Mexico’s tight trade links with the United States have taken a toll on manufacturing activity.

Downturn in IP across OECD to dateas pronounced as in 2001 recession

industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar)

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08

Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

USA

Eurozone

Japan

Weak global demand pressuresindustrial production in East Asia

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08


East Asia

China


Indonesia

Malaysia

IP now in decline across all regions

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25



All Developing

East Asia


Europe and Central Asia

Latin America


International Trade

OECD imports compress. As the global financial crisis and nascent recession in high income countries combine “forces”, what had been a gradual easing of import demand from the United States to the United Kingdom has turned a corner to quicker contraction. Consumption and investment spending across the OECD have shifted to decline during the 2nd to 3rd quarters, putting pressure on imports—as had the ratcheting of oil and other commodity prices during the first half of the year. As a result U.S. and U.K goods imports (on a smoothed year-on-year basis) are declining at a 4% pace, while imports in Japan and Germany are just now reaching the “zero line”. These developments are making it difficult for developing countries to maintain export shipments in positive territory, while adding downward pressures on global growth. Developing country exports slow. Countries from China, to India to Mexico are feeling the pinch of import contraction in their export markets. Many more countries—from Chile to Malaysia to Cote d’Ivoire are seeing these effects compounded by the stunning downturn in terms of trade during the second half of 2008. China’s dollar-based exports almost halved from growth of 24% in July (3mma y/y) to 12.5% by November; those from Mexico from 20% in April to 4% by October. U.S. current account improves. A welcome narrowing of the U.S. current account deficit occurred in the third quarter, moving to an annual rate of $700 billion from $724 billion in the second quarter; shifting from 5.1% to 4.8% GDP. The improvements stem from three areas. Export growth was strong, but fading across the quarter while crude oil imports eased 6.3% growth. Though the deficit on oil trade continued to increase, better outturns for non-oil trade helped the overall position improve by several billion dollars. Surplus on nonfactor services increased by $2 billion, as did the balance on income—as foreigners suffered declines in earnings on U.S. assets. Despite these gains, funding the external shortfall still requires a net foreign inflow of some $1.9 billion per day!

Key OECD imports compress as domestic demand falters

import volume: U.S, Japan, Germany and U.K. ch% 3mma y/y

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0


Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

United States

Japan

Germany

U.K.

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007 Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008

Source: Department of Commerce.

U.S. current balance improves slightlyin third quarter on better balance on

non-oil trade

Income

Services

Non-oilBOT

Oil balance

Transfers

Current account

Developing country export growth fades export values (USD): China, India, Mexico and Poland ch% 3mma y/y

0

10

20

30

40


Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

China

PolandIndia

Mexico


Commodity Prices

Oil prices fall on contracting demand. Since peaking in early July, oil prices plunged more than $100/bbl or 72% to just under $40/bbl by early December–before rising slightly in recent days. Demand is falling sharply in the OECD, and consumption is slowing in China and other developing countries. Non-OPEC supplies are expected to grow moderately in 2009, though falling prices are leading to reductions in investment plans for 2009. Stocks are building atypically in the fourth quarter and OPEC agreed to a 2.2mb/d cut in oil production at its meeting December 17th. This follows a 1.5mb/d cut agreed in October. OPEC has called on non-OPEC producers and exporters to contribute to efforts to restore prices to reasonable levels. U.S. oil stocks surge on demand slump. U.S. crude oil stocks jumped into the upper end of their five-year range, underpinned by rebounding production from hurricane disruptions and continuing large declines in demand. Oil product inventories have also moved to the upper end of their range, reflecting weak end-use. U.S. oil product consumption fell by more-than 6% or nearly 1.3mb/d during the first 11 months of the year, with gasoline down more than 3% and distillate off more than 6% (diesel mainly in trucks to haul freight). Estimates of vehicle miles travelled from the U.S. Department of Transportation show relatively large year-on-year declines, with October figures down 3.4%. Oil futures fall into steep “contango”. Oil futures prices have dropped sharply, particularly at the front end of the curve, in line with the plunge in spot prices. The forward curve has moved from a fairly flat structure at end-August with mild contango (near-by prices below forward prices) to very steep contango at present, widening to nearly $30/bbl. This reflects the large surplus on the market at present and also provides a financial incentive to build stocks. Indeed some companies have leased oil tankers to store oil on the water. Higher forward prices reflect investor expectations for a rise in prices in anticipation of OPEC production cuts to support higher prices and eventually a revival of global demand.

Crude oil prices plunge back to 2004 levels on falling demand

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-04Jan-05

Jan-06Jan-07

Jan-08

$/bbl

World Bank Average

Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

Crude stocks rise on slumping demand and recovery from hurricane disruption

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

M bbl

5-year high-low ranges

Source: U.S. DOE and DECPG Commodities Group.

WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13

Dec 15

$/bbl

Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013* on select dates in 2008

Oct 31

Sep 30

Aug 29

Dec 5

Source: NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.


Agriculture prices plummet one-third since June. Agriculture prices dropped 34% since mid-year, including a record fall of 17% in October—the largest monthly decline since our records begin in 1960. The price declines are due to weakening demand, lower energy costs and improved supply prospects. The largest falloff has been for fats & oils, which are down nearly 50% on weak demand in the edible oils complex. Grains prices dropped 35% on weaker U.S. maize exports amid expectations for an 12% increase in global wheat production and 6% gains in the soybean crop. Rubber prices have fallen by nearly half due to falling oil prices and a poor outlook for the auto sector, as most rubber end-use is for tires. Metals prices continue to drop. Metals declined significantly due to weak global demand, rising inventories and improved supply prospects. Copper prices plunged two-thirds since mid-year due to sharply rising stocks and very weak demand in construction and transport. Other metals prices have been falling for much longer due in part to improved supply, with nickel prices down 80% from 2007 peaks on large cuts in global stainless steel production. Zinc prices are also down as much from peaks due to slowing global steel production, which began falling in September (y/y). Most metal prices have fallen into their cost curves and this has prompted announcement of a good number of production cuts and project delays. Bulk freight rates plummet on falling import demand and credit constraints. Freight rates for dry bulk cargoes—such as iron ore, coal, and grains—plummeted due to much reduced import demand (notably from China) and credit constraints that prevent purchasers from obtaining letters of credit (LC) from banks. China’s steel production—growing at double digit rates—fell 16% in October and mills are slashing output and running down inventories, reducing demand for iron ore and coking coal. The slump in prices is having a large effect on the shipping industry—owners, operators and shipyards—and even ship scrap yards cannot get LCs to dispose of ageing vessels.

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Grains

Fats & Oils

Other Food

Agriculture prices plummet on weak demand, falling oil costs and better

supply prospectsIndex 2000=100


Metals prices plunge on sharp decline in demand

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Jan-05Jan-06

Jan-07Jan-08

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

Cu $/ton Ni $/ton

Copper

Nickel

Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

Ocean freight rates sink on lackof demand and credit concerns

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08

Baltic dry freight index



International Finance

Flows grind to a halt. Capital flows to emerging markets dropped to $8 billion in November, the lowest monthly figure since 1995, with zero activity recorded in either bond or equity markets for a second month running. Bond issuance fell 54% over the first 11 months of the year (y/y) while equity volumes declined 75%. The falloff in bonds is no surprise given market conditions, holding prospective issuers on the sidelines. Bank lending was the only segment that recorded activity in the month, but flows remain 62% below the $22.4 billion monthly average of 2008. Most loans credited in November were signed months earlier, underscoring the current difficulties in raising external finance. Creditworthiness deteriorates. Credit quality has faltered in 2008, with 17 downgrades and no upgrades over the past three months. The trend of positive net credit rating actions has come to a halt as the financial crisis hit EM sovereigns, especially those in Emerging Europe and to a lesser degree in Latin America. The latest downgrade occurred mid-December, when S&P and Fitch cut their ratings on Ecuador to default status following the country’s failure to make an interest payment on bonds maturing in 2018. The downtrend in credit quality coincides with a widening in EM spreads–the current escalation is now comparable to that at the height of the Russian crisis a decade ago. EM debt prospects for 2009 Although the total volume of maturing EM debt in 2009 ($207 billion) is less than 2008’s ($269 billon) refinancing risks will increase over the next year with access to international debt markets restricted. EM borrowers (mostly corporates) hold $67 billion in bonds and $140 billion in syndicated bank borrowings that will mature at the end of 2009, with largest refinancing requirements in Emerging Europe, especially Russia and Turkey. Conditions for market-based financing may worsen in the near-term, implying that we are likely to see restructurings and bankruptcies in EM banks and companies that cannot get rollover financing. Of note, the vast majority of corporations in developing countries are increasingly turning to state-related sources for refinancing.

Capital flows come to an effectivehalt over October and November

Source: DECPG Finance Team.

G r o s s c a p ita l f l o w s to e m e r gi n g m a rk e ts

$ b ill io n

H 1 Q 3 T o ta l H1 Q 3 O c t N o v Y T D

T o t a l 3 4 9 1 6 3 6 5 2 2 4 9 7 0 1 8 9 3 4 6

B o n d s 1 0 7 2 0 1 4 6 5 8 9 0 0 6 7

B a n k s 1 5 6 1 0 1 3 1 2 1 4 6 6 0 1 8 9 2 3 2

E q u i ty 8 6 4 2 1 9 4 4 5 2 0 0 4 7

L a t . A m e r ic a 6 9 5 4 1 5 6 5 7 1 3 3 1 7 3

B o n d s 3 1 6 4 5 1 7 1 0 0 1 8

E . E u ro p e 1 5 6 4 5 2 4 7 1 0 1 3 4 1 2 4 1 5 3

B o n d s 5 0 5 6 4 3 2 8 0 0 4 0

A sia 9 3 4 7 1 8 8 6 4 1 4 2 2 8 1

B o n d s 1 8 5 2 3 7 0 .4 0 0 7

O t h e r s 3 1 1 6 6 1 2 7 9 1 2 3 9

2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8

Credit quality of EM sovereignsdeteriorated in recent months

Source: DECPG Finance Team.

Credi t ra tin g dow ngra de s sinc e S e ptem ber 20 08A u g-08 De c-08

V en ezue la One n otc h f ro m B+ t o B b y S& P 6 48 1, 88 0E cuad or One n otc h f ro m B- t o C CC-, a nd t o s ele ctive

def a ult ratin g (S D) b y S &P 7 24 4, 32 5From CC C to de fa lu t ra tin g (RD ) b y Fit chOne n otc h f ro m B3 t o Ca a1 by M o od y's

S ri L an ka One n otc h f ro m B+ t o B b y S& P 7 74 1, 94 8Rus sia One n otc h f ro m BBB + t o BBB by S & P 2 23 88 9Ja m aica One n otc h f ro m B+ t o B b y F itch 4 27 1, 12 7Hun ga ry One n otc h f ro m BBB + t o BBB by S & P an d Fit c h 1 66 49 5

One n otc h f ro m A2 t o A3 by M ood y'sB ulg aria One n otc h f ro m BBB t o B BB - by F itc h 2 26 71 0

One n otc h f ro m BBB + t o BBB by S & P K azak hst an One n otc h f ro m BBB t o B BB - by F itc h 4 85 1, 29 2Rom an ia Two n otc he s from B B B t o BB + by Fitch N / A N/ A

One n otc h f ro m BBB - t o BB + by F itchLa tivia One n otc h f ro m A2 t o A3 by M ood y's N / A N/ AA rge nt ina One n otc h f ro m B to B- b y S& P 6 71 1, 96 0P akista n One n otc h f ro m B2 t o B3 by M ood y's 1 ,0 40 2, 19 1

* As of Dec em e br 15 th , 2 00 8.

EM B IG s pr ea ds (bp )

Much greater refinancing riskfor debt maturing in 2009

bonds & loans maturing in 2009 by region, billions dollars

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Others

Source: Bondware/Loanware.

Loans

Bonds


Currencies

Dollar falls precipitously. The dollar mounted a strong rally against the euro over the second half of 2008, grounded in diminished expectations (July/August) for Euro Area growth and a narrowing of interest differentials favoring the currency. The greenback picked-up 22% between July 11th and November 20th reaching $1.2454 by that time. Meanwhile, the yen carried on appreciation on the back of unwinding carry trades, with yen/dollar moving to ¥99 by early November. But conditions changed dramatically in late-November: the U.S. unit plunged 16% vis-à-vis the euro from November 20th to December 17th, losing half of its earlier gains to stand at $1.4405; and appreciation of the yen accelerated, reaching ¥87.36 on December 17th up 22% since August. What has affected the tenor of foreign exchange markets so sharply and quickly? U.S. shortfall on foreign flows. The dollar’s move–up against the euro was more a case of “euro weakness” than “dollar strength” as Euro Area economic indicators slumped and earlier European beliefs that the Zone would “shake off” U.S. financial problems were proved moot. Flight to quality to U.S. Treasuries and GSEs (prior to nationalization) pushed the dollar higher against a range of currencies. But staring in August 2008 net foreign purchases of GSEs, U.S. corporate bonds and equities slumped, and by October foreigners were net sellers: $22 billion in Agency bonds; $12 billion in corporate bonds and $3 billion in equity. And as yields on 10-year Treasuries narrowed to 2.2% by mid-December, risk/return calculations have likely turned against the purchase of dollar-based assets. Dollar turns against EM units. As investor funds were withdrawn from EM equity markets, the Korean won, for example dropped 60% of its dollar value through November, with the brunt of decline starting in September. The Turkish lira fell 50%; the Brazilian real and Indonesian rupiah 40% over the year through November. Currencies have begun to recoup in December. Given financial market uncertainties, the next shift in currencies is hard to discern affected by many “unknown-unknowns”. .

1.230

1.270

1.310

1.350

1.390

1.430

1.470

1.510

1.550

1.590

1.630

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08

86

90

94

98

102

106

110


yen/USD

USD/Euro (inverse)

Dollar plummets since earlyDecember to reverse earlier gains

USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

Net foreign purchases of U.S. assets halved** over Jan-October 2008

net foreign purchases USD billions, 3mma

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08

Treasuries

Source: U.S. Treasury ‘TICS’ database. ** Jan-Oct08 vs Jan-Oct07

GSEs

Corporate bonds

Equity

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08


Dollar surges... then retreats against EM currencies

LCU per USD indexes, Jan1 2008=100 [*increase = weaker LCU]

Turkish lira

Brazilian real

Indonesian rupiah

Korean won

Russian rouble


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 2008

2000 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

World 100.0 2.7 3.7 4.5 4.4 3.8 3.5 0.5 -4.0 -0.9 -1.5 -1.3 ..

High-income countries 77.2 1.7 2.1 2.9 2.4 1.6 0.3 -2.7 -5.3 -1.0 -2.0 -1.1 ..

Industrial countries 72.7 1.7 2.0 3.1 2.6 1.5 -0.1 -3.1 -5.6 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 ..

United States 25.1 2.1 3.3 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.4 -3.4 -8.9 -1.3 -4.1 1.5 -0.6

Japan 17.3 0.7 1.6 4.1 2.9 2.6 -1.7 -3.5 -4.6 -3.6 1.1 -3.4 ..

Euro Area 22.9 1.8 0.9 3.4 2.8 1.1 0.5 -4.5 -4.2 0.7 -2.0 -2.0 ..

United Kindgom 4.1 0.1 -1.1 0.7 0.4 1.6 -2.2 -3.5 -5.6 -0.7 -0.3 -1.6 ..

Other high income 4.5 2.0 4.5 1.6 0.6 5.6 11.8 0.3 -1.7 -1.1 -1.0 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.2 -3.4 2.4 2.4 -1.6 5.2 -12.5 -3.5 -10.2 -3.1 0.1 .. ..

Singapore 0.4 6.7 9.2 12.0 6.3 -26.4 36.9 -39.7 1.7 -1.4 4.5 -8.7 ..

Taiwan (China) 1.1 5.2 3.4 4.6 8.2 14.8 -4.7 3.7 -8.1 -2.3 -2.6 -8.0 ..

Developing countries 22.8 5.9 8.3 8.8 9.7 9.4 10.0 9.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.9 ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.7 10.0 12.8 13.0 15.0 12.4 17.3 16.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -1.4 -1.4

China 6.3 13.4 15.7 16.5 17.7 13.8 19.0 20.2 0.2 -0.7 0.0 -1.9 -1.4

Indonesia 0.9 1.1 1.9 -2.0 5.7 -0.4 15.7 0.0 -8.8 1.3 -6.2 3.2 ..

Thailand 0.6 7.0 9.1 7.3 8.2 16.8 7.3 0.0 10.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 ..

Malaysia 0.5 5.1 3.6 5.0 2.0 12.6 0.3 -2.5 -6.9 -1.4 -1.3 -0.9 ..

Europe and Central Asia 3.2 4.6 5.3 7.6 6.9 5.3 5.8 3.2 -5.1 -1.9 0.7 -3.4 ..

Russian Federation 1.0 4.2 5.4 6.5 6.3 4.4 3.3 9.3 1.2 0.2 0.5 -3.0 -9.2

Turkey 0.5 3.8 5.9 5.9 5.2 5.5 10.3 -8.5 -14.8 -4.4 -4.3 -1.1 ..

Poland 0.6 6.5 4.7 11.8 9.5 8.5 15.6 1.8 -14.2 -3.7 3.6 -1.3 ..

Czech Republic 0.2 5.3 7.3 11.0 8.8 12.2 6.2 3.8 -5.5 -4.6 2.6 -9.3 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 1.2 4.0 4.3 4.4 7.1 -0.1 -0.5 1.9 -1.7 0.7 .. ..

Brazil 1.8 2.8 3.4 2.9 5.9 10.3 1.9 3.1 10.6 -1.5 1.5 -1.7 ..

Mexico 1.7 .. 2.9 5.3 1.8 1.8 -1.9 -3.9 -2.3 0.8 -2.7 .. ..

Argentina 0.8 2.7 8.1 7.8 5.8 11.6 -0.1 0.2 0.6 -0.7 0.7 -2.5 ..

Colombia 0.3 2.8 4.0 10.7 10.7 9.4 -10.7 0.1 -13.4 -11.0 6.7 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.9 2.3 3.7 -0.6 -0.4 6.7 8.4 2.8 2.4 0.1 -0.8 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.4 4.9 -4.2 -4.7 18.3 10.0 6.4 7.5 -0.7 -1.2 .. ..

Iran 0.4 0.7 3.4 -2.7 -2.9 2.1 10.5 2.2 6.0 0.0 0.1 .. ..

Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria 0.3 3.7 7.2 0.9 1.1 5.1 1.7 4.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 .. ..

South Asia 1.6 6.8 8.9 10.6 9.1 8.4 8.5 0.6 -2.4 -1.9 1.4 -2.8 ..

India 1.3 6.7 7.9 10.5 9.9 11.0 6.9 0.0 0.5 -1.9 1.7 -2.8 ..

Pakistan 0.2 7.6 14.9 10.6 5.6 -19.6 18.5 5.1 -22.3 -1.7 -0.7 .. ..

Bangladesh 0.1 6.8 12.6 10.8 5.6 34.0 13.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 2.2 4.5 3.9 5.8 13.3 -2.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 0.4 2.2 3.6 4.8 4.2 10.2 -1.3 15.5 -10.0 -1.9 -0.2 -0.3 ..

Nigeria 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.2 2.6 -7.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 75.9 1.8 2.2 3.3 2.7 1.6 0.2 -3.0 -5.6 -1.1 -1.9 -1.1 ..

Developing excl. China 16.6 3.0 4.9 5.0 5.4 7.2 4.2 1.6 -1.9 -1.3 -0.1 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.9 0.1 2.2 -1.3 0.8 2.5 6.9 0.4 -2.7 0.3 -2.7 .. ..

Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 7.0 9.4 10.5 11.1 10.8 10.5 10.0 -0.9 -1.3 0.3 -2.1 ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

aIn general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.




Real GDP a

High-income countries 78.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 1.3 1.3 0.2 -0.5 .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 75.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.4 1.1 1.6 0.4 -0.8 .. .. .. ..

United States 10.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.0 -0.2 0.9 2.8 -0.5 .. .. .. ..

Japan 20.8 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.4 -3.7 -1.8 .. .. .. ..

Euro Area 27.3 2.2 1.8 3.0 2.6 1.3 2.7 -0.7 -0.8 .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.2 2.9 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.0 -2.0 .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.2 4.2 5.5 5.9 6.1 9.0 -8.8 -5.0 8.4 .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.8 .. 7.1 7.0 6.4 19.7 -23.0 -8.8 27.4 .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 5.2 7.3 8.2 7.7 -4.8 15.7 -5.3 -6.8 .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) 1.4 4.3 4.2 4.8 5.7 9.0 -11.9 -6.1 6.4 .. .. .. ..

Real merchandise imports b

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.6 6.7 4.5 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.0 6.2 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.1 0.9 -1.8 -0.2 .. ..

United States 23.8 8.2 5.9 5.7 1.3 -0.5 -2.4 -4.1 -3.9 0.2 -3.2 4.4 ..

Japan 6.7 5.4 3.5 4.0 -0.4 0.3 0.8 2.3 -0.3 -0.6 0.7 3.5 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.7 5.5 6.6 5.5 6.8 7.8 5.6 -2.3 2.1 .. ..

United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 6.7 10.2 -4.4 3.3 1.0 1.9 -1.8 -3.2 -1.0 0.3 ..

Other high income 11.7 5.6 9.3 9.3 11.3 11.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 8.5 10.1 10.4 10.2 8.2 5.6 2.6 -9.0 -0.5 11.9 ..

Singapore 2.3 5.2 8.6 11.2 6.3 8.4 14.3 12.8 10.9 -4.0 8.3 -7.9 ..

Taiwan (China) 2.2 6.3 1.2 3.8 -0.3 0.5 6.4 -3.6 -1.0 18.7 -11.6 -7.1 -2.5

Import Prices c

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 6.2 6.3 11.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 7.2 6.6 7.1 12.6 17.1 19.8 18.0 -3.5 -3.3 .. ..

United States 23.8 -0.1 7.5 4.9 4.2 10.6 14.1 19.1 17.6 -3.1 -3.5 -5.4 -6.7

Japan 6.7 -1.6 10.2 8.1 7.5 14.4 23.6 25.3 31.2 1.4 -2.4 -1.6 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 7.6 9.0 8.2 13.2 18.3 19.6 15.6 -5.3 -4.1 .. ..

United Kindgom 6.7 -1.1 3.6 5.0 10.2 12.0 11.9 13.5 8.7 -3.1 -7.5 -7.5 ..

Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.4 4.6 3.5 7.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.9 1.2 -0.3 0.1 1.9 3.7 4.1 -1.2 0.7 -1.2 ..

Singapore 2.3 -0.2 6.4 7.5 3.5 10.6 15.2 20.2 19.0 -6.1 -4.0 -9.0 ..

Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 6.4 7.6 8.0 13.3 19.7 23.4 20.2 -4.4 -5.2 -8.7 -6.7

Real effective exchange rates d

Euro Area 33.5 1.4 -0.9 0.9 4.1 6.4 7.5 8.6 5.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.9 -0.9

United States 14.4 -1.0 -2.8 -2.7 -4.7 -7.7 -9.8 -9.5 -5.7 3.2 2.8 7.4 2.3

Japan 7.4 -2.4 -5.2 -8.9 -6.6 -3.3 4.2 6.0 3.6 0.2 4.9 11.3 5.0

United Kindgom 5.4 0.0 -2.4 -0.2 2.1 -2.6 -8.8 -10.0 -11.8 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -6.0

Canada 3.5 0.5 3.4 3.2 0.8 8.7 5.8 -3.2 -10.4 -2.9 0.7 -10.1 -2.8

Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -2.8 -3.7 -2.6 -5.0 -6.2 -9.6 -11.2 -10.5 1.4 2.5 3.5 1.0

Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.2 10.2 4.8 -2.0 -4.4 -8.6 -13.0 -12.7 -1.3 -7.0 -13.1 -4.3

Singapore 2.3 0.7 4.2 5.1 6.9 4.2 2.6 4.3 7.2 -0.4 -1.5 -1.3 -2.4

Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.1 -2.0 0.1 -1.3 -3.4 -3.5 -2.3 -1.9 -0.9 -2.2 -2.2 1.0

Switzerland 1.7 -0.8 -3.8 -4.3 -4.9 -4.2 1.1 2.0 0.0 -1.0 1.2 3.6 -1.2

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights.b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest

1995 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct Nov 16-Dec

Policy Rates

United States .. 3.78 3.21 4.96 5.02 4.48 3.16 2.09 1.96 1.87 1.01 0.39 0.15

Japan .. 0.31 0.10 0.24 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.50 0.50

Euro Area .. .. 2.02 2.76 3.84 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.23 4.25 3.86 3.43 2.50

United Kindgom .. 5.05 4.65 4.64 5.51 5.68 5.35 5.03 5.00 5.00 4.61 3.23 2.00

Ten year bond

United States .. 4.86 4.28 4.78 4.63 4.27 3.69 3.85 3.84 3.64 3.79 3.50 2.68

Japan .. 1.49 1.38 1.74 1.67 1.56 1.39 1.60 1.53 1.49 1.50 1.48 1.42

Euro Area .. .. 3.35 3.73 4.20 4.23 3.97 4.24 4.29 4.10 3.90 3.59 3.18

United Kindgom .. 4.88 4.41 4.48 5.01 4.82 4.50 4.80 4.70 4.48 4.46 4.15 3.78

Spreads (Basis points)b,c

Developing countries .. 455 306 198 197 235 295 281 337 382 661 711 779

East Asia and Pacific .. 243 265 180 161 197 257 253 303 323 583 616 652

China .. 76 58 64 71 104 140 139 157 173 235 223 230

Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand .. .. 50 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia .. 134 84 84 87 109 131 135 161 172 308 428 397

Europe and Central Asia .. 352 185 149 158 185 237 237 296 344 635 705 813

Russian Federation .. 348 156 111 121 152 191 169 238 308 586 704 875

Turkey .. 476 274 223 214 229 292 312 336 347 594 592 635

Poland .. 106 51 59 61 73 108 104 131 137 242 325 305

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 574 404 227 221 261 323 304 367 415 707 767 822

Brazil .. 635 394 233 180 198 258 214 252 289 494 469 511

Mexico .. 221 167 137 126 150 190 162 213 241 436 457 485

Argentina .. 3020 2586 343 320 388 483 557 696 793 1482 1782 1844

Colombia .. 412 323 194 161 182 251 192 237 271 534 550 570

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 324 338 476 539 546 505 486 520 704 783 915

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. .. 65 79 86 154 230 180 244 279 393 380 423

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. .. 199 199 283 423 568 596 965 1240 1899 2058 2169

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 443 277 266 288 315 402 338 318 364 650 779 853

South Africa .. 169 95 90 100 138 233 215 254 294 565 665 657

Nigeria .. 746 417 245 77 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross inflows e

Developing countries .. .. 361 494 683 147 101 148 70 23 18 9 ..

East Asia and Pacific .. .. 85 111 145 38 19 25 10 5 2 1 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 129 179 252 49 37 64 34 10 12 4 ..

Latin America and Carribean .. .. 87 116 157 32 19 38 13 4 3 1 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 22 16 15 3 5 12 6 2 0 0 ..

South Asia .. .. 22 42 69 15 15 4 4 1 0 0 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 15 30 46 10 6 4 4 1 0 1 ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures.b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.e/In billions of US dollars.


Weightsb Average 2007 2008 2008 2008


Energy .. .. 188.2 220.9 244.8 298.6 331.1 417.8 406.0 400.9 354.5 266.4 207.3

Coal, Australia .. 6.5 181.4 187.0 250.4 318.0 434.3 528.2 620.2 603.4 571.4 411.4 351.4

Crude oil, average .. 14.0 189.1 227.7 251.9 310.3 337.6 428.5 409.8 405.8 353.0 257.5 191.2

Natural gas , Europe .. 12.1 164.0 219.5 221.7 242.9 281.5 321.4 378.9 379.4 384.9 412.9 409.8

Non-energy 100.00 .. 148.9 192.1 224.8 237.3 281.4 308.1 292.8 290.8 276.0 226.6 203.7

Agriculture 69.10 .. 133.5 150.4 180.5 200.9 236.6 259.8 243.7 240.3 228.3 189.3 175.6

Beverages 16.90 .. 137.2 145.4 169.9 179.4 210.7 221.4 226.8 227.2 218.6 186.0 173.8

Cocoa 3.90 1.9 169.8 175.7 215.5 220.5 273.5 305.2 312.0 310.9 297.6 251.0 226.8

Coffee, arabica 8.00 -4.2 131.9 131.4 141.9 154.2 171.1 164.2 167.3 168.2 164.5 141.9 140.0

Coffee, robusta 2.80 1.0 122.1 163.1 209.1 221.4 270.9 266.8 268.2 271.8 254.5 214.3 219.2

Food 29.40 .. 133.6 147.0 184.7 212.9 257.2 286.3 260.5 256.3 239.4 197.2 183.1

Fats and oils 10.10 .. 132.2 137.9 208.8 259.1 310.2 327.7 288.9 279.7 254.8 195.7 178.2

Palm oil 2.30 3.6 136.0 154.2 251.5 299.0 372.6 386.2 299.1 285.3 248.5 175.7 154.4

Soybean meal 4.10 1.1 113.3 110.6 162.2 212.6 234.4 255.7 238.1 230.5 215.2 178.7 169.3

Soybeans 2.00 2.7 129.7 126.8 181.3 228.8 265.6 276.2 267.3 262.5 240.3 186.0 178.8

Grains 6.90 .. 126.5 149.8 189.0 215.6 274.6 335.2 298.5 295.0 284.4 234.8 214.4

Maize 1.70 3.4 111.5 137.6 184.9 194.2 248.9 292.5 276.4 265.5 264.1 206.8 185.0

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 0.7 141.4 150.6 161.3 169.9 236.2 422.6 347.3 342.6 337.9 301.0 272.7

Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 4.8 133.5 168.3 223.7 299.6 360.9 303.7 278.5 288.7 259.1 208.1 198.8

Other food 12.40 .. 141.8 156.4 149.0 149.7 171.9 187.4 188.9 190.5 178.4 165.1 161.3

Bananas, US 2.30 2.7 142.2 159.7 159.4 153.9 197.2 216.9 182.7 188.5 189.3 190.4 212.9

Sugar, world 7.50 -2.3 96.4 126.1 98.0 100.6 118.0 115.5 126.7 129.6 121.6 103.1 102.8

Raw materials 22.80 .. 131.5 161.4 175.8 182.8 199.5 215.2 211.5 207.9 206.3 171.8 158.2

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 -2.2 93.5 97.3 107.1 117.5 129.0 127.9 129.2 132.1 124.6 105.5 93.1

Rubber, Singapore 4.80 8.5 225.1 315.9 343.3 367.4 412.9 461.5 452.0 442.0 431.9 290.1 256.8

Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 2.0 110.9 126.0 135.6 134.9 144.7 157.4 151.4 147.9 149.4 144.9 131.5

Fertilizers 2.70 .. 163.4 168.6 240.1 292.0 409.4 624.1 741.1 763.7 740.1 602.5 505.0

Triple superphosphate 0.90 7.0 146.3 146.4 246.2 308.3 519.0 752.6 804.4 821.7 783.7 700.8 664.4

Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 178.7 280.3 314.0 305.7 358.7 371.1 342.4 340.7 321.1 260.5 227.3

Aluminum 7.90 5.1 122.5 165.9 170.3 157.7 177.0 189.8 179.9 178.4 163.0 136.9 119.6

Copper 9.30 12.1 202.9 370.7 392.5 396.3 429.9 465.6 423.5 421.0 385.5 271.6 205.0

Gold .. 7.7 159.4 216.6 249.7 282.4 332.1 321.1 311.6 300.7 297.4 289.1 272.7

Nickel 2.20 18.3 170.7 280.8 431.0 338.3 335.2 297.3 219.5 219.1 206.0 140.5 123.9

Memo:

Crude Oil (US$) .. 14.0 53.4 64.3 71.1 87.6 95.3 121.0 115.7 114.6 99.7 72.7 54.0

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.




Export valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 .. 22.9 .. .. 38.7 42.1 20.0 7.5 -4.2 -3.4 -4.4 ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 15.7 23.1 23.4 21.6 20.7 33.7 23.4 16.2 -1.9 -5.2 2.3 ..

China 16.7 20.9 28.4 27.2 25.7 11.2 41.4 18.2 23.5 0.5 -6.6 7.0 -19.3

Indonesia 4.2 7.9 19.7 17.7 13.2 40.1 66.9 12.8 1.9 1.4 -0.9 -13.1 ..

Thailand 4.6 10.0 15.0 16.9 17.2 63.1 12.0 32.5 2.3 -10.5 0.2 -0.3 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 21.9 .. .. 63.8 62.0 22.5 1.7 -7.8 -0.4 -14.2 ..

Russian Federation 7.1 15.1 33.1 24.5 16.8 121.3 53.2 31.4 24.3 -5.3 0.7 -10.9 ..

Turkey 1.8 15.1 16.3 16.4 25.4 40.5 137.2 -8.7 13.0 -5.9 2.5 -28.2 ..

Poland 2.1 18.5 19.3 24.3 26.5 44.4 64.7 32.0 -16.8 -12.7 -5.6 -14.6 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 9.5 19.5 19.6 12.6 34.5 14.7 26.3 11.7 -5.0 -1.4 -5.6 ..

Brazil 3.7 11.7 22.6 16.3 16.6 47.9 0.7 120.0 13.0 -3.7 6.9 -8.7 -10.4

Mexico 11.2 9.4 14.0 16.7 8.8 14.6 11.3 12.1 4.3 -7.9 -2.7 -3.9 ..

Argentina 1.8 7.8 16.8 15.0 20.1 95.4 29.9 -18.3 140.0 -1.0 1.2 -11.6 ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 15.0 31.7 28.6 9.4 63.4 97.6 14.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 12.6 39.3 21.7 3.6 95.9 67.2 -5.9 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 15.1 34.6 32.5 18.2 100.6 141.9 200.5 -24.1 -8.8 -6.6 .. ..

South Asia 4.3 13.3 27.8 15.7 18.8 31.0 26.9 23.3 11.3 -7.9 -7.1 -4.9 ..

India 2.8 15.7 31.5 17.0 22.6 28.8 22.0 20.8 17.4 -6.5 -9.2 -5.0 ..

Pakistan 0.6 7.1 23.6 5.1 2.6 12.0 66.0 27.8 -15.6 -19.7 14.5 -3.9 ..

Bangladesh 0.4 9.9 14.1 24.2 7.7 135.7 44.5 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 11.7 27.2 20.2 18.0 75.1 73.3 -20.2 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 8.5 12.9 12.0 20.9 57.0 6.7 47.5 25.2 11.1 -9.5 -12.6 ..

Nigeria 1.4 13.6 30.7 21.6 12.2 97.0 39.5 -4.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Export prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. 7.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 0.4 4.5 3.5 2.5 7.6 8.6 8.5 3.1 -1.3 -0.3 -2.2 ..

China 16.7 -0.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 4.2 -1.6 6.5 5.0 -0.9 0.9 -1.7 ..

Indonesia 4.2 5.1 15.6 17.0 8.8 28.7 26.5 55.7 17.2 -1.6 -6.8 -2.5 ..

Thailand 4.6 3.3 7.2 5.2 5.7 13.3 15.4 22.8 8.7 0.2 -1.4 -3.5 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 8.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 7.1 9.5 22.8 17.1 21.4 32.1 33.6 59.8 .. -2.7 .. .. ..

Turkey 1.8 1.8 5.7 3.5 12.5 30.2 25.5 29.3 13.6 -2.6 -2.6 -11.2 ..

Poland 2.1 -0.9 -12.8 6.4 0.4 -14.1 3.1 -6.1 .. 2.0 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 4.3 11.2 12.0 7.6 26.2 19.0 38.5 .. -1.5 .. .. ..

Brazil 3.7 2.3 12.1 12.5 10.5 24.8 26.2 47.1 56.8 2.5 -2.1 -1.9 ..

Mexico 11.2 4.2 8.2 7.5 5.1 20.0 13.5 36.8 7.1 -2.6 -5.5 -11.6 ..

Argentina 1.8 1.8 1.7 8.6 11.4 46.3 54.9 20.5 .. -0.6 .. .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 13.3 46.0 22.7 5.6 29.8 104.5 -0.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. 30.8 -5.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 .. 1.3 -1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 4.3 1.9 1.6 10.9 8.9 9.2 20.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 2.8 2.5 11.1 3.7 9.3 12.6 12.0 10.7 10.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

Pakistan 0.6 -0.5 0.4 2.5 3.4 27.3 24.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh 0.4 -0.6 -38.2 68.0 6.0 5.2 50.0 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 14.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 5.0 6.6 8.1 9.0 28.7 13.1 14.2 10.0 0.3 0.7 .. ..

Nigeria 1.4 .. 35.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.




Import valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 41.0 47.6 21.1 13.2 -4.0 -4.0 -3.5 ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 14.3 17.1 16.8 18.7 44.3 57.5 4.3 12.8 -3.4 -6.1 3.7 ..

China 19.3 21.0 17.6 19.9 20.8 42.7 52.3 0.2 15.4 -0.3 -8.9 6.7 -28.1

Indonesia 2.1 6.0 24.0 5.8 22.0 68.7 290.7 58.2 -2.0 -8.8 0.2 3.5 ..

Thailand 4.2 8.3 25.7 9.0 8.7 43.4 63.4 0.6 63.0 -11.5 4.8 -3.3 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. 42.1 52.6 22.8 3.2 -7.5 -1.8 -11.0 ..

Russian Federation 3.9 12.0 28.8 31.0 36.0 47.7 5.1 93.7 41.6 -2.9 2.1 -4.4 ..

Turkey 3.2 13.4 19.7 19.5 21.8 33.2 102.1 -7.1 13.6 -4.8 -8.2 -17.6 ..

Poland 3.6 14.7 13.5 25.5 30.5 55.1 74.9 17.3 -11.4 -5.0 -13.8 -6.8 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 8.6 18.1 19.2 19.2 26.5 31.1 39.3 21.8 -5.2 2.8 -4.6 ..

Brazil 3.2 7.3 17.1 24.1 32.0 54.0 41.8 95.7 42.6 -3.9 7.8 -4.4 -21.2

Mexico 11.6 9.9 12.7 15.4 10.1 6.4 26.1 3.9 23.5 -2.8 -3.5 -5.0 ..

Argentina 0.6 3.9 27.8 19.0 30.9 22.4 45.6 51.5 6.4 -20.0 11.0 -5.0 ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 11.5 18.0 8.9 24.3 57.3 26.9 62.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 12.5 18.5 20.2 35.6 20.8 -0.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 13.5 13.1 7.8 20.6 34.3 26.3 28.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 7.5 54.4 3.9 31.4 127.0 14.2 545.4 51.3 3.9 -4.0 .. ..

South Asia 5.5 15.7 37.1 20.8 23.7 41.2 60.0 46.0 43.8 6.1 -15.3 -4.4 ..

India 3.7 18.6 42.0 21.9 27.8 42.8 46.8 55.6 55.1 7.7 -18.3 -4.0 ..

Pakistan 0.7 10.9 40.5 17.4 9.3 40.5 145.3 1.6 -9.0 -4.4 9.4 -7.5 ..

Bangladesh 0.5 9.8 12.0 15.5 15.4 21.6 87.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 12.3 20.8 22.1 22.4 45.3 17.9 14.5 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 11.0 15.6 23.6 17.9 47.3 7.7 26.1 33.4 1.9 -5.6 -20.9 ..

Nigeria 0.5 18.8 19.7 20.3 33.7 83.6 38.8 -6.1 .. .. .. .. ..

Import prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Indonesia 2.1 8.9 5.0 17.1 14.8 44.9 25.7 67.0 5.1 -5.9 -6.8 -8.3 ..

Thailand 4.2 1.8 6.3 6.5 5.4 18.6 18.3 22.4 5.1 -1.9 -3.1 -3.2 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 3.9 0.9 7.6 12.1 11.4 13.1 14.8 16.9 16.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

Turkey 3.2 3.1 6.9 10.1 7.9 34.0 28.2 42.3 14.7 -2.5 -3.7 -5.8 ..

Poland 3.6 -1.2 -8.6 6.9 -1.8 6.5 -2.9 1.3 .. -3.2 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 2.4 6.7 5.5 7.6 11.2 19.7 32.7 .. -0.2 .. .. ..

Brazil 3.2 3.0 11.2 6.9 8.2 14.7 26.9 42.7 27.8 -0.3 -0.5 -4.2 ..

Mexico 11.6 2.4 5.1 4.5 5.4 7.2 12.2 16.1 12.4 -0.3 -0.2 -2.3 ..

Argentina 0.6 0.3 4.1 2.3 7.3 -9.4 18.2 43.5 .. 0.7 .. .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 4.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 2.3 3.5 3.1 7.8 16.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 .. 3.3 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 .. 0.8 -3.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 5.5 3.0 9.7 2.5 8.6 12.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 3.7 2.7 19.7 -10.0 7.6 11.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan 0.7 5.6 12.9 10.1 10.5 11.7 54.5 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh 0.5 1.5 -36.4 93.1 11.5 13.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 6.7 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 4.2 5.9 3.5 5.7 27.4 -5.0 33.2 15.0 -1.4 0.8 .. ..

Nigeria 0.5 .. 6.6 2.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.


US$ bn. % GDP 2007 2008 2008 2008

2007 2007 2005 2006 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

World 64.8 0.1 -244 -205 -195 -254 -250 -290 -538 -585 -532 .. ..

High-income countries a -397.2 -1.0 -388 -450 -407 -438 -406 -441 -626 -657 -632 .. ..

Industrial countries -494.9 -1.3 -536 -635 -556 -618 -641 -627 -773 -817 -752 .. ..

United States -731.2 -5.4 -767 -817 -794 -812 -819 -845 -837 -832 -811 -820 ..

Japan 209.5 4.8 78 67 93 89 79 44 -3 -19 -8 -21 ..

Euro Area 23.2 0.2 22 -14 42 15 -10 -31 -107 -102 -99 .. ..

United Kindgom -88.4 -3.2 -125 -141 -179 -196 -184 -184 -181 -188 -159 -157 ..

Other high income 97.7 6.2 148 186 150 181 235 186 140 162 109 133 ..

Hong Kong (China) 28.0 13.7 -10 -18 -23 -30 -22 -30 -30 -26 -27 -35 ..

Singapore 39.1 25.3 29 33 36 25 27 22 18 32 0 10 ..

Taiwan (China) 28.3 7.3 15 20 27 32 14 23 4 -1 3 26 7

Developing countries 494.5 3.7 149 252 223 198 169 165 99 82 112 59 ..

East Asia and Pacific 432.6 10.5 140 240 333 285 234 325 351 359 359 342 ..

China 371.8 12.2 101 174 264 221 219 278 314 315 323 350 389

Indonesia 10.4 2.5 28 40 39 37 18 8 9 15 13 -11 ..

Thailand 15.8 6.6 -7 1 12 13 -3 10 -12 -8 -17 -11 ..

Malaysia 28.9 16.7 27 30 30 37 37 54 50 43 48 31 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 13 -7 -46 -29 -12 -13 -19 -27 -6 -52 ..

Russian Federation 76.2 6.0 120 143 135 172 217 204 205 200 196 153 ..

Turkey -37.7 -7.7 -43 -54 -63 -70 -78 -77 -79 -86 -64 -68 ..

Poland -18.6 -4.6 -12 -17 -25 -30 -38 -34 -36 -47 -26 -37 ..

Czech Republic -3.2 -1.9 1 1 4 7 5 4 3 11 0 -5 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 0.7 26 33 -1 -6 -33 -57 -79 -64 -102 -106 ..

Brazil 1.5 0.1 45 46 40 35 22 33 23 22 22 12 31

Mexico -5.5 -0.6 -7 -6 -10 -3 -13 -7 -21 -28 -24 -20 ..

Argentina 7.1 2.8 12 12 11 16 15 5 21 27 22 15 ..

Colombia -5.9 -3.8 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 .. 0 .. .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 10 48 23 33 73 47 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 95.1 25.5 100 123 106 136 169 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.4 0.3 -9 -7 -11 -13 -9 -21 -29 -31 -30 .. ..

Algeria 0.0 0.0 20 29 24 26 35 34 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. -56 -74 -98 -107 -133 -155 -186 -218 -166 -159 ..

India .. .. -39 -52 -72 -77 -92 -115 -141 -170 -122 -119 ..

Pakistan -8.3 -5.8 -9 -13 -15 -18 -25 -24 -24 -24 -25 -23 ..

Bangladesh .. .. -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.9 0.2 20 21 16 31 63 35 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa -20.6 -7.5 -3 -10 -10 -11 -11 -9 -11 -7 -10 -1 ..

Nigeria 22.0 15.9 19 23 20 26 28 28 .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 147.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

CAB


Weights Average

Levelb2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest


World 100.0 95.3 1.1 0.8 5.8 8.6 10.1 10.1 5.2 -3.3 -6.1 -3.4 0.1

High-income countries 77.9 .. 0.8 0.5 6.1 9.2 11.0 11.2 5.3 -3.4 -5.9 -3.4 0.6

Industrial countries 70.1 .. 0.8 0.6 7.0 10.4 12.2 12.2 5.6 -3.7 -6.6 -3.8 0.8

United States (SDR/USD) 15.6 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 4.0 5.6 6.7 7.3 3.6 -1.9 -2.7 -2.0 0.9

Japan 7.3 116.8 -1.8 -5.2 -1.2 4.1 13.5 15.5 9.4 2.4 6.7 3.3 4.7

Euro Area 29.3 .. 0.0 1.0 9.1 12.3 14.3 15.8 9.1 -4.1 -7.5 -4.0 1.7

United Kindgom 5.5 0.6 -0.7 1.2 8.7 6.8 1.2 -0.8 -5.5 -7.9 -6.1 -9.2 -3.0

Other high income 7.8 101.6 1.1 -0.1 0.4 1.4 2.9 4.4 3.3 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4

Hong Kong (China) 3.8 7.8 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.7 1.6 4.7 5.4 7.2 8.7 11.6 8.6 -1.8 -3.3 -1.9 -0.1

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.1 3.9 -1.1 -0.9 1.3 4.4 8.8 5.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 -1.0

Developing countries 22.1 110.7 2.0 1.7 4.9 7.2 7.8 7.0 4.9 -3.2 -6.6 -3.3 -1.4

East Asia and Pacific 7.4 101.8 -0.7 4.2 5.7 6.1 7.7 6.4 4.6 -1.5 -1.8 -3.3 -0.3

China 2.7 8.2 1.0 2.8 4.8 5.8 8.4 10.3 10.5 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.6

Indonesia 1.1 9138.4 -7.9 6.0 0.2 -1.3 -1.5 -3.2 0.3 -2.1 -6.1 -14.0 0.8

Thailand 1.3 40.1 0.0 6.2 9.7 7.8 9.8 7.4 0.5 -1.4 -0.4 -1.8 -0.9

Malaysia 1.4 3.8 0.3 3.2 6.7 8.0 8.5 6.7 3.8 -3.3 -2.3 -1.9 -0.8

Europe and Central Asia 4.9 98.7 4.1 1.6 8.4 12.0 12.3 13.1 10.1 -4.3 -9.0 -5.0 -1.9

Russian Federation 1.5 26.4 1.9 4.0 6.3 7.9 8.4 9.5 5.2 -4.6 -4.5 -3.1 -2.1

Turkey 0.6 1.1 6.1 -5.9 9.6 22.4 17.1 7.3 6.3 -4.9 -16.3 -7.4 1.8

Poland 0.5 3.7 13.0 4.3 12.1 18.2 24.2 29.4 25.2 -6.6 -12.9 -8.2 -2.5

Czech Republic 0.5 29.7 7.3 6.0 11.3 17.6 25.5 31.9 26.5 -4.8 -8.6 -5.6 -0.7

Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 129.5 5.6 1.5 3.1 5.3 6.9 7.3 6.2 -4.8 -11.2 -2.8 -2.6

Brazil 1.1 2.3 20.2 11.9 11.7 20.5 21.4 19.7 14.9 -10.4 -17.3 -4.0 -6.4

Mexico 1.7 10.2 3.6 0.0 -0.3 0.4 1.9 4.3 6.4 -4.6 -16.2 -3.7 -2.9

Argentina 0.4 2.2 0.7 -4.9 -1.3 -2.2 -1.8 -1.2 2.8 -2.2 -4.9 -2.7 -2.9

Colombia 0.3 2234.1 13.3 -1.7 13.6 14.1 16.2 14.6 7.9 -10.7 -10.1 -1.1 0.9

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 146.8 -0.3 -0.4 1.9 3.0 3.8 5.3 3.8 -1.4 -2.3 -2.8 -0.4

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0

Iran 0.3 5815.4 -3.9 -2.3 -1.2 -1.2 0.2 1.0 -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -2.6 0.3

Egypt 0.3 4.8 7.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 3.6 5.8 5.2 -1.9 -2.0 0.3 0.2

Algeria 0.3 72.2 -1.7 0.9 4.8 6.7 7.3 10.7 11.6 0.2 -2.2 -8.4 -3.8

South Asia 1.2 103.0 0.7 -2.8 5.4 8.6 7.0 -2.0 -8.0 -4.5 -4.9 -0.6 -0.2

India 0.8 44.8 2.8 -2.7 9.6 14.0 10.9 -1.0 -7.4 -5.8 -6.3 -0.8 -0.6

Pakistan 0.2 56.6 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -8.5 -18.5 -3.6 -3.8 0.6 1.4

Bangladesh 0.1 58.2 -7.5 -6.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1

Sri Lanka 0.1 91.0 0.7 -3.3 -6.1 -3.4 0.8 2.4 4.3 -0.1 -0.3 -1.7 -0.5

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 105.9 -0.3 -3.2 0.3 7.9 2.9 0.4 -1.2 -3.2 -10.4 -2.8 -2.9

South Africa 0.5 7.2 1.6 -6.1 -3.9 8.4 -4.2 -8.8 -8.7 -4.9 -17.4 -3.6 -0.8

Nigeria 0.3 109.6 1.2 2.0 2.3 6.1 8.7 8.2 7.5 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -8.7

Memo:

OECD 73.8 .. 1.1 0.6 6.9 10.3 12.2 12.2 6.0 -3.8 -7.1 -3.9 0.7

Developing excl. China 19.3 112.6 2.1 1.5 4.9 7.4 7.7 6.6 4.2 -3.7 -7.5 -3.8 -1.5

Developing oil exporters 2.7 147.7 -5.8 1.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.8 -1.1 -3.1 -7.5 -1.1

Developing non-oil exporters 19.3 106.2 3.2 1.7 5.5 8.1 8.8 8.0 5.4 -3.5 -7.1 -2.7 -1.5

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)

a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period.b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD




World .. 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.0 5.5 4.7 ..

High-income countries .. 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.2 ..

Industrial countries 3.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.3 ..

United States 5.9 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.9 4.0 4.1 4.4 5.3 5.4 4.9 3.7 1.1

Japan 2.1 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.7 ..

Euro Area 3.5 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.2 ..

United Kindgom 5.0 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.4 4.8 4.8 5.2 4.5 ..

Other high income .. 2.5 1.4 1.6 2.5 4.5 5.7 6.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 3.3 2.0 0.9 2.0 2.0 3.5 4.6 5.7 4.6 4.5 3.1 1.8 ..

Singapore 6.5 2.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.1 6.6 7.5 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.4 ..

Taiwan (China) 1.9 1.8 2.3 0.6 1.8 4.5 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.7 3.1 2.4 1.9

Developing countries 9.3 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.1 7.3 8.2 9.8 11.7 12.2 11.0 9.9 ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.5 5.6 7.2 5.1 5.6 5.8 6.7 8.7 10.5 11.8 10.8 7.6 6.1

China 6.3 4.8 1.8 1.5 4.8 6.6 8.0 7.8 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.0 2.4

Indonesia 12.4 5.8 10.5 13.1 5.8 5.4 7.6 10.1 12.0 11.8 12.2 11.8 11.7

Thailand 5.9 2.2 4.5 4.6 2.2 2.9 5.0 7.5 7.2 6.4 6.0 3.9 2.2

Malaysia 10.0 2.0 3.0 3.6 2.0 2.2 2.6 4.9 8.4 8.5 8.2 7.6 ..

Europe and Central Asia 10.5 8.0 4.4 5.6 8.0 8.2 10.6 11.4 11.0 11.5 10.6 10.5 ..

Russian Federation 14.9 9.0 12.7 9.7 9.0 11.4 12.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.1 14.2 ..

Turkey 10.5 8.8 8.2 9.6 8.8 8.2 8.8 10.3 11.7 11.8 11.1 12.0 10.8

Poland 4.3 2.4 2.1 1.1 2.4 3.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.8

Czech Republic 7.5 2.9 1.8 2.5 2.9 4.9 7.4 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.6 5.5 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 9.0 6.5 5.4 5.6 6.5 8.1 8.5 9.1 9.8 10.1 10.0 7.9 7.7

Brazil 6.8 3.6 6.9 4.2 3.6 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4

Mexico 5.2 4.0 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.8 6.2

Argentina 9.0 8.8 9.6 10.9 8.8 8.5 8.5 9.1 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.4 7.9

Colombia 9.4 5.5 5.0 4.3 5.5 5.4 6.1 6.4 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.9 7.7

Middle East and North Africa .. 4.5 2.8 5.4 4.5 4.8 9.6 10.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. 4.2 0.5 2.2 4.2 5.9 8.4 10.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. 17.2 13.4 11.9 17.2 18.9 20.6 25.3 .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 24.3 9.5 4.8 7.6 9.5 7.1 12.3 18.8 22.5 23.7 21.5 20.2 20.3

Algeria 1.4 0.1 1.6 2.5 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.0 .. 3.1 .. .. ..

South Asia 11.5 7.6 7.0 7.6 7.6 8.9 10.5 9.7 24.5 24.9 23.9 20.3 ..

India 9.9 6.4 4.2 6.2 6.4 5.5 6.3 7.8 9.0 9.0 9.8 10.4 ..

Pakistan 26.0 7.6 9.1 7.9 7.6 8.9 12.4 19.3 24.5 25.3 23.9 25.0 24.7

Bangladesh .. 9.1 7.0 6.8 9.1 10.9 10.5 8.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 24.6 15.8 11.0 10.0 15.8 18.8 22.1 26.5 25.2 24.9 24.3 20.3 16.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 9.3 6.7 7.5 6.4 6.7 7.4 8.0 9.8 .. 13.8 .. .. ..

South Africa 14.5 7.1 3.4 4.6 7.1 8.4 9.9 11.6 13.4 13.7 13.1 12.1 ..

Nigeria 17.2 5.4 17.9 8.2 5.4 5.4 8.1 10.0 13.1 12.3 13.0 .. ..

Memo:

OECD 3.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.4 ..


Developing oil exporters 10.4 5.9 11.9 10.1 5.9 6.6 9.5 10.1 .. 12.1 .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 9.2 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 7.3 8.2 9.7 11.0 12.2 10.6 9.8 ..


Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in that time period.

For developing countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the components. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.


Weights 2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest1995 2005 2006 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct Nov 16-Dec

World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income countriesb 82.8 2.72 3.83 4.13 3.89 3.12 2.48 2.41 2.37 1.79 1.17 0.90

Industrial countries 80.6 2.73 3.84 4.15 3.91 3.14 2.49 2.41 2.37 1.79 1.16 0.90

United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 3.21 4.96 5.02 4.48 3.16 2.09 1.96 1.87 1.01 0.39 0.15

Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.10 0.24 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.50 0.50

Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 2.02 2.76 3.84 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.23 4.25 3.86 3.43 2.50

United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.65 4.64 5.51 5.68 5.35 5.03 5.00 5.00 4.61 3.23 2.00

Other high income 2.2 2.45 3.27 3.37 3.22 2.60 2.37 2.36 2.38 1.78 1.38 ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 4.73 6.50 6.52 6.00 4.25 3.58 3.50 3.50 1.50 1.50 ..

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 2.14 3.40 2.68 2.33 1.47 1.09 1.03 1.28 1.45 0.84 0.75

Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.30 1.56 1.96 2.04 2.08 2.10 2.14 2.10 1.92 1.41 0.79

Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.58 5.86 6.71 7.31 7.47 7.47 7.43 7.34 6.98 6.55 5.58

Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18

Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 2.74 3.39 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.48 3.25

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 12.98 11.64 10.27 10.00 10.16 10.48 10.97 11.00 11.00 11.65 12.00

Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.31 16.76 18.37 17.66 16.39 16.48 17.80 17.80 18.00 17.80 17.27

Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.30 4.09 4.48 4.95 5.40 5.95 6.10 6.13 6.29 6.16 5.80

Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 1.96 2.17 2.86 3.34 3.65 3.75 3.60 3.50 3.50 2.90 2.75

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 19.13 15.33 12.05 11.25 11.25 11.81 12.97 13.48 13.75 13.75 13.75

Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 9.32 7.30 7.36 7.55 7.52 7.64 8.29 8.32 8.13 7.95 8.25

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 3.66 6.45 8.09 9.75 8.41 10.42 11.46 11.12 13.57 17.03 16.24

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 7.08 6.27 7.94 8.70 9.24 9.67 9.80 10.02 9.82 10.05 10.19

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 3.75 5.02 4.79 4.36 2.52 2.14 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.33 .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.75 5.97 7.04 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.59 7.77 9.00 9.00 9.00

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 6.82 8.58 9.09 9.52 9.53 10.16 11.70 12.52 12.08 10.90 9.25

Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 8.09 9.14 10.43 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..

South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.14 7.63 9.61 10.57 11.00 11.53 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.50

Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.17 13.25 9.13 9.17 9.50 10.08 10.08 9.75 .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 Latest


World .. 89 91 106 124 127 115 112 93 93 74 69 70

High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States .. 88 90 100 112 111 100 98 89 89 73 67 65

Japan .. 84 84 107 109 96 79 86 71 71 57 55 55

Euro Area .. 96 99 121 148 153 137 129 103 103 81 76 78

United Kindgom .. 88 85 98 106 106 94 92 81 81 72 71 71

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) .. .. 110 127 152 167 142 136 113 113 86 82 85

Singapore .. 102 104 121 171 176 171 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) .. 74 71 80 94 93 100 88 62 62 51 .. ..

Developing countriesa,b .. 136 153 203 275 323 282 268 219 219 160 .. ..

East Asia and Pacificc .. 112 111 146 219 261 216 187 144 144 108 .. ..

China .. 104 76 109 240 316 238 202 157 157 118 .. ..

Indonesia .. 168 188 268 397 500 462 442 322 322 188 .. ..

Thailand .. 166 206 231 282 316 325 284 215 215 143 .. ..

Malaysia .. 108 107 120 183 206 182 168 135 135 110 .. ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 237 398 495 583 508 535 333 333 216 .. ..

Russian Federation .. 412 457 878 1046 1256 1116 1218 662 662 428 .. ..

Turkey .. 82 96 119 166 206 130 126 124 124 81 .. ..

Poland .. 146 166 228 319 328 313 278 226 226 148 .. ..

Czech Republic .. 267 361 484 674 835 853 928 639 639 459 .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 163 181 263 394 458 447 487 333 333 228 .. ..

Brazil .. 153 165 254 398 506 474 558 349 349 237 .. ..

Mexico .. 163 182 260 360 361 376 360 290 290 197 .. ..

Argentina .. 95 105 150 190 185 189 234 138 138 81 .. ..

Colombia .. 282 395 589 685 736 685 686 615 615 457 478 529

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 253 332 366 429 387 402 397 397 286 .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. .. 503 527 339 461 389 385 309 309 232 181 ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 165 248 328 412 532 573 512 359 359 243 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. 164 181 266 411 576 413 327 283 283 199 .. ..

Pakistan .. 211 272 370 452 487 528 375 231 231 221 228 219

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. 206 280 312 358 342 330 314 261 261 213 198 179

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa .. 188 234 307 378 392 326 330 275 275 201 .. ..

Nigeria .. 313 317 450 807 1030 1096 947 801 801 603 540 397

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;All Others are IFC/S&P Indices


GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance

2007 2008 2009 2008 2009

Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD

World 3.6 2.4 2.3 1.2 1.0 0.4 -0.4 36 .. .. 20 .. ..

High-income countries 2.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -380 .. .. -162 .. ..

Industrial countries 2.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -456 .. .. -236 .. ..

United States 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -670 .. -717 -467 .. -648

Japan 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 188 197 217 207 220 224

Euro Area 2.5 1.1 0.9 1.0 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -55 .. 8 -38 .. 5

United Kindgom 3.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 -0.9 -2.1 -1.1 -74 -72 -54 -60 -53 -35

Other high income 5.8 3.6 3.6 .. 2.1 0.4 .. 77 .. .. 74 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 6.0 3.6 3.1 .. 1.4 -1.0 .. 23 .. .. 23 .. ..

Singapore 8.0 2.5 2.2 .. 1.2 -2.2 .. 32 .. .. 29 .. ..

Taiwan (China) 5.3 3.7 4.0 .. 2.5 1.5 .. 23 .. .. 23 .. .... ..

Developing countries 7.5 6.3 6.3 .. 4.7 4.1 .. 415.8 .. .. 181.8 .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 10.2 8.5 8.6 .. 7.2 6.5 .. 394.2 .. .. 369.5 .. ..

China 11.4 9.5 9.6 .. 8.1 7.5 .. 350.4 0.4 390.2 329.7 0.4 435.8

Indonesia 6.2 6.0 6.1 .. 4.7 3.5 .. 4.5 .. .. 4.6 .. ..

Thailand 4.4 4.5 4.0 .. 3.2 1.9 .. 2.0 .. .. 2.3 .. ..

Malaysia 6.0 5.3 5.6 .. 3.3 3.2 .. 34.2 .. .. 29.8 .. .... ..

Europe and Central Asia 6.2 4.9 5.0 .. 2.8 2.4 .. -47.8 .. .. -113.0 .. ..

Russian Federation 7.5 6.9 7.0 .. 4.0 3.7 .. 107.6 0.1 .. 22.5 .. ..

Turkey 4.5 2.3 2.5 3.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 -49.1 .. -42.5 -36.0 .. -46.1

Poland 6.5 5.0 5.1 5.4 3.4 2.9 3.0 -27.0 .. -28.0 -28.2 .. -29.3

Czech Republic 6.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 2.6 3.0 2.5 -6.3 .. -6.4 -6.2 .. -4.8.. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 4.4 4.3 .. 2.1 1.3 .. -16.4 .. .. -63.0 .. ..

Brazil 5.2 5.2 5.3 .. 2.8 2.4 .. -30.1 .. .. -32.8 .. ..

Mexico 3.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 0.5 -0.2 0.4 -12.8 .. -10.3 -20.9 .. -21.4

Argentina 8.3 6.5 6.2 .. 1.9 2.2 .. 6.7 .. .. 1.1 .. ..

Colombia 6.6 3.5 3.2 .. 2.9 2.0 .. -5.6 .. .. -7.0 .. ....

Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 4.9 5.5 6.1 .. 2.8 3.2 .. 136.2 0.1 .. 42.2 .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 7.3 6.9 7.2 .. 5.5 4.9 .. 0.4 .. .. -1.9 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... ..

South Asia 8.1 6.6 6.2 .. 6.3 5.7 .. -49.4 .. .. -43.5 .. ..

India 8.6 7.1 6.2 .. 6.6 6.1 .. -33.3 .. .. -28.0 .. ..

Pakistan 6.2 4.1 6.0 .. 4.9 2.9 .. -16.1 .. .. -15.5 .. ..

Bangladesh 6.2 5.8 6.2 .. 5.7 5.5 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 ..

Sri Lanka 6.8 .. 5.3 .. .. 4.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 4.8 3.6 3.5 .. 3.0 2.5 .. -21.0 .. .. -19.6 .. ..

Nigeria 5.6 6.2 6.0 .. 6.6 4.6 .. 19.5 .. .. 11.0 .. .... ..

Memo: .. ..

OECD 2.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -565 .. .. -338 .. ..

Developing excl. China 6.1 5.1 5.0 .. 3.3 2.7 .. 65.3 .. .. -147.9 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 6.2 5.7 5.5 .. 3.6 2.1 .. 196.6 .. .. 70.5 .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 7.7 6.4 6.4 .. 4.8 4.3 .. 219.1 .. .. 111.3 .. ..


Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.Regional Aggregates:Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VENEurope and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKREast Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THAMiddle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEMSouth Asia: BGD,IND,PAKSub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWEOther Aggregates:OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USAIndustrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USAOther High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVNDeveloping Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

The External Environment for Developing Countries · (saar), steepest since the first quarter of 1982. GDP could fall 4% in Japan and 3.5% in the Euro Area. Signs of slowdown among

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