The Expert Systems Life Cycle in AIS Research: What it Means for Future AIS Research Glen L. Gray California State University, Northridge Victoria Chiu SUNY New Paltz Qi Liu and Pei Li Rutgers University, The State University of New Jersey University of Waterloo Symposium on Information Integrity & Information Systems Assurance 8 th Biennial Research Symposium October 4-5, 2013
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The Expert Systems Life Cycle in AIS Research: What it Means for Future AIS Research Glen L. Gray California State University, Northridge Victoria Chiu.
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The Expert Systems Life Cycle in AIS Research:
What it Means for Future AIS Research
Glen L. GrayCalifornia State University, Northridge
Victoria ChiuSUNY New Paltz
Qi Liu and Pei LiRutgers University, The State University of New Jersey
University of Waterloo Symposium on Information Integrity & Information Systems Assurance
8th Biennial Research Symposium
October 4-5, 2013
BACKGROUND -- GENERAL Sutton (2005) The role of AIS research in guiding
practice. AIS research more applied research vs. basic
research, putting AIS researchers at a disadvantage in terms of publication outlets.
Alles, Kogan, Vasarhely (2008) Exploiting comparative advantage… AIS researchers face more competition
compared to NAIS… Researchers in: IS, IT, CS, EE, plus others Accounting firms Other technology organizations
BACKGROUND – AIS/AI/ES
O’Leary (2008) Gartner's Hype Cycle and Information System Research Issues and (2009) The Impact of Gartner's Maturity Curve, Adoption Curve, Strategic Technologies on Information Systems Research...
Moore (2002) Crossing the Chasm
GARNER HYPE CURVE
PRODUCT (OR RESEARCH) LIFE CYCLE
RESEARCHER GROUPSP
ub
licati
on
s
CHASMS
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
RQ1: Did expert systems research in accounting and AIS domain go through a similar industry life cycle over time?
RQ2: Did the type of research evolve over time as would be predicted by the industry life cycle and the Gartner hype curve?
RQ3: Did the type of researcher evolve over time as would be predicted by the adoption life cycle?
RQ4: Did the evolution of the type researcher encounter chasms that slowed or stopped expert system research as would be predicted by Moore?
REASEARCH METHOD
Search electronic literature databasesAI/ES/KD AND Accounting/Auditing/Tax[Challenge: Searching early paper-based literature.]
Interview accounting professors who had early and/or frequent hits
Interview Big 4 (6/8) representatives[Challenge: finding people who remember the 80s]
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
SOME GREAT STORIES… Dedication…
Paul Steinbart develops expert system at night at community college because MSU doesn’t have appropriate DEC VAX computer. [1982-84]
Serendipity… Bob Michaelsen (author of first ES/accounting
paper) included ES in his tax dissertation because his daughter was in Brownies with David Waltz’s daughter. [1979…]
Tenacious… Called ES companies until she found a company
who would give her a fully-functional ES for research. [1997]
A STORY TO BEAT
Edward Feigenbaum visits University of Turku (Finland) and talks about A.I. and Mycin-- sounds like “fun.”
1985, Barbo Back builds 500-700 rule expert system in LPA Prolog.
Domain: Corporate tax: 60% Maximum, but many, many exceptions, credits, etc.
TOP JOURNALSTop Journals with the Most Expert Systems
PublicationsCount %
1 Expert Systems with Applications 26 11.16%
2 Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory 15 6.44%
3 Journal of Information Systems 14 6.01%
4New Review of Applied Expert Systems and Emerging Technologies
9 3.86%
5 Accounting Education 8 3.43%
6 Accounting, Organizations and Society 6 2.58%
7 International Journal of Accounting Information Systems 6 2.58%
8Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management
6 2.58%
38.64%
RQ2: TYPE OF PUBLICATIONS
1984-1990 1991-1997 1998-2004 2005-20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Seven-Year Periods
Percent of Articles Published in System-Related Journals
PUBLICATIONS BY ACCOUNTING AREA
58
19 20
76
32
20
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Accounting FinancialAccounting
ManagerialAccounting
Auditing Tax Education MultipleDisciplines
Area
CHANGING MIX OF APPLICATION AREAS
Accounting Financial Accounting
Managerial Accounting
Auditing Tax Education Mixed0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1984-19901991-19971998-20042005-2011
Accounting Areas
Rela
tive P
erc
enta
ges
DISTRIBUTION OF AUTHORSHIPS
Number of Articles
Published
Number of Authors
Percent of Authors
7 2 0.57%
6 2 0.57%
5 1 0.28%
4 9 2.56%
3 10 2.84%
2 25 7.10%
1 303 86.08%
R3/R4: FREQUENT AUTHORS (PRELIMINARY)
Top Expert Systems Authors Publications %
1 Carol E. Brown 7 3.00%2 Daniel E. O’Leary 7 3.00%3 Robert H. Michaelsen 6 2.58%4 Alan Sangster 6 2.58%5 Mary Ellen Phillips 5 2.15%6 Mohammad J. Abdolmohammadi 4 1.72%7 Andrew D. Bailey, Jr. 4 1.72%8 Amelia Annette Baldwin-Morgan 4 1.72%9 Martha M. Eining 4 1.72%
10 James V. Hansen 4 1.72%11 Clyde W. Holsapple 4 1.72%12 R. Steve McDuffie 4 1.72%13 David S. Murphy 4 1.72%14 Paul J. Steinbart 4 1.72%
EXPERT SYSTEMS DISSERTATIONS
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
0
3
1
3 3 3 3
6
4
3 3
5
2 2
1
0 0 0 0
1
Dissertation #
AAA MEETING PRESENTATIONS
Year Presentation #
Pre-1998 (Being compiled)
1998 2
1999 2
2001 3
2002 1
2003 1
2004 1
2006 1
2007-2009 0
2010 1
PUBLICATIONS IN OTHER FIELDS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
Expert Systems Articles in All the field Count
in ScienceDirect
in Scopus
in WILEY
in EBSCO
Accounting and Auditing field
LESSONS LEARNED?
1. Being first to embrace a new technology limits the types of research, but it also provides some freedom.
2. Being in the lead (ahead of practice) is a prized position.
3. It is hard to lead if no one is following.4. If academics do a good job of leading
practice, practice eventually will take the lead.
LESSONS LEARNED?5. The Gartner hype cycle will usually catch up
with researchers (what goes up, must come down). Corollary: When in the trough of
disillusionment, it’s hard to determine the trough’s length and the slope of the plateau and some researchers will leave instead of risking a long trough or a downward sloping plateau.
6. The types of research within a domain must evolve over time. Corollary: Chasms will be encountered as
types of research evolve—some may be impossible to cross.
LESSONS LEARNED?
7. The types of researchers will change as the types research progresses. Corollary: After crossing each chasm, some
current researchers will leave and new researcher will join the domain.