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The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Flow Management Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Email: [email protected] ATFM Workshop Asia Pacific 2014
33

The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

May 11, 2020

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Page 1: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

The evolution, challenges, and future of air

traffic flow management

Yanjun Wang and Hua XieNational Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Flow Management

Nanjing University of Aeronautics and AstronauticsEmail: [email protected]

ATFM Workshop Asia Pacific 2014

Page 2: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Traffic growth worldwide

2

Data source: ICAO

Page 3: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Main problems

Delay Congestion

Environmental Impacts3

Safety and Security

Page 4: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Demand-Capacity Balancing

ATFM:

Safe, orderly and expeditious flow of air traffic by ensuring

that ATC capacity is utilized to the maximum extent possible

4

Page 5: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Solution Before

5

Traffic Increased dramatically. GDP,

Ground Stop, MIT, CDM

1990s

2000s

Traffic congestion occurred at airport and

terminal airspace, then propagated into en route

1970s

1980s

System Update

2025-2030

System R&D

Increasing needs

Next Generation of ATM: 4DT

management

1960s

Page 6: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Trend in ATFM research

6 Data source: scholar.google.com

Page 7: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Diversity

The characteristics of ATM system

7

Uncertainty

Complexity …

Page 8: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Primary Characteristics of Complex Systems ATM

System

1 Structural Complexity ✔

2 Behavioural Complexity ✔

3 Nested Complexity ✔

4 Evaluative Complexity ✔

8

The characteristics of ATM system

Page 9: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

ATM as a complex system

9

Nonlinear interaction in a sector

Traffic complexity Sector configuration

ControllerPilots

The network of Chinese ATM system

Page 10: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

The ATFM problem becomes more and more complicated……

how to solve it ? ? ?

we need to consider…….

10

Page 11: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Key components of ATFM system

11

ATFM System

Organization

Structure

Operation

Procedures

Capability of each

subsystem

DATA

Provide Suggestion and Solutions

Collecting data

Data storage

Data management

Data mining

data analysis

Data visualization

Data application

Fundamental theories

Systems theory Information theory Cybernetics

Page 12: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Key components of ATFM system

12

ATFM System

Organization

Structure

Operation

Procedures

Capability of each

subsystem

DATA

Information exchange mechanisms Provide Suggestion and Solutions

Collecting data

Data storage

Data management

Data mining

data analysis

Data visualization

Data application

Fundamental theories

Systems theory Information theory Cybernetics

Page 13: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Theoretical model for ATFM

13

Page 14: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Key components of ATFM system

14

ATFM System

Organization

Structure

Operation

Procedures

Capability of each

subsystem

DATA

Information exchange mechanisms Provide Suggestion and Solutions

Collecting data

Data storage

Data management

Data mining

data analysis

Data visualization

Data application

Fundamental theories

Systems theory Information theory Cybernetics

Page 15: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Key components of ATFM system

15

ATFM System

Organization

Structure

Operation

Procedures

Capability of each

subsystem

DATA

Information exchange mechanisms Provide Suggestion and Solutions

Collecting data

Data storage

Data management

Data mining

data analysis

Data visualization

Data application

Fundamental theories

Systems theory Information theory Cybernetics

Page 16: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

The structure of ATFM System in Europe

16

CFMU

FMP

FMP

FMP

FMP

FMP ……

Page 17: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

The structure of ATFM System in US

17

ATCSCC

ARTCC

ARTCC

ARTCC

ARTCC

TRACON/ATCCT

TRACON/ATCCT

TRACON/ATCCT

TRACON/ATCCT

TRACON/ATCCT

TRACON/ATCCT

Page 18: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

China ATFM organization

The National ATFM Center

Military ATC

Center

Operational Center

of CAAC

Air Force Regional

Control Center

Navy ATC Control

Center

Operational Center

of Regional ATMB

Area Control Center

Sub-division ATC

center of Military

...

National Management

Regional Execution

Terminal Service

The First Level

The Second Level

The Third Level

The Fourth Level …... Civil-Military

Terminal Control

Center

/ Airline Operation

Center, Tower...

/ Airline Operation

Center, Tower...

The Structure of ATFM System in China

18

Page 19: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Operation mechanisms

The Operation procedures of ATFM System in China

Strategic ATFM Pre-tactical ATFM Tactical ATFM

19

Page 20: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Key components of ATFM system

20

ATFM System

Organization

Structure

Operation

Procedures

Capability of each

subsystem

DATA

Information exchange mechanisms Provide Suggestion and Solutions

Collecting data

Data storage

Data management

Data mining

data analysis

Data visualization

Data application

Fundamental theories

Systems theory Information theory Cybernetics

Page 21: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Year

National

ACC

Service

Ability

Year

National

TWR

Service

Ability

Year

National

APP

Service

Ability

21

Operation procedures

Demand Prediction

Scheduling

Airport Surface

Arrival

Departure

En-route

Operation procedures

Page 22: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Operation procedures

Demand Prediction

Scheduling

Airport Surface

Arrival

Departure

En-route

Advanced Flight Schedule Manager22

Operation procedures

Page 23: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

23

Operation procedures

Demand Prediction

Scheduling

Airport Surface

Arrival

Departure

En-route

Operation procedures

Page 24: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

24

Operation procedures

Demand Prediction

Scheduling

Airport Surface

Arrival

Departure

En-route

Operation procedure

Page 25: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

25

Operation procedures

Demand Prediction

Scheduling

Airport Surface

Arrival

Departure

En-route

Operation procedures

Page 26: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Key components of ATFM system

26

ATFM System

Organization

Structure

Operation

Procedures

Capability of each

subsystem

DATA

Information exchange mechanisms Provide Suggestion and Solutions

Collecting data

Data storage

Data management

Data mining

data analysis

Data visualization

Data application

Fundamental theories

Systems theory Information theory Cybernetics

Page 27: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Capability assessment

Capability Assessment

Airports

ATC

Airlines

Human

System

27

Page 28: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Key components of ATFM system

28

ATFM System

Organization

Structure

Operation

Procedures

Capability of each

subsystem

DATA

Information exchange mechanisms Provide Suggestion and Solutions

Collecting data

Data storage

Data management

Data mining

data analysis

Data visualization

Data application

Fundamental theories

Systems theory Information theory Cybernetics

Page 29: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Post-operation evaluation

Indicator Scheme

• Airspace Indicator

• Traffic Indicator

• Airport Indicator

• Airlines Indicator ….

Management Efficiency and Effectiveness

• Organization Structure

• Operation Mechanisms

• Human Performance

Performance evaluation

29

Page 30: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Systematic View

Congested airport cluster Delay propagation

30

Figure curtesy of Fleurquin, P., Ramasco, J.J. & Eguiluz, V.M. Systemic delaypropagation in the US airport network. Sci. Rep. 3, 1159; DOI:10.1038/srep01159 (2013).

Page 31: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Perc

en

tage

Distributions of flying times (ZBAA to ZGSZ)

Flying time (in minute)

Distributions of flying times (ZBAA to ZSSS)

~6 min

Flying time (in minute)

Perc

en

tage

The same airline!

Operational data used: 04/2012 – 10/2012

Airline behavior study based on data analysis

31

Performance evaluation

Page 32: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

32

Big data + Meaning = Information

Information Technology

Page 33: The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow ... The evolution... · The evolution, challenges, and future of air traffic flow management Yanjun Wang and Hua Xie National

Thank you !