The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation Ian Middleton, Deputy Director EUROCONTROL - Directorate Single Sky Amsterdam, 27 April 2012.

The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

Ian Middleton, Deputy Director

EUROCONTROL - Directorate Single Sky Amsterdam, 27 April 2012

SINGLE EUROPEAN SKY versus NEXTGEN (US) FROM A REGULATORY PERSPECTIVE

Agenda

• The challenges driving R&D

• Airports and the Network

• Meeting the challenges - R&D within a Regulatory Framework

– NEXTGEN versus SESAR

• Conclusion

General Presentation 3

EUROCONTROL but not EU

EUROCONTROL & EU

EUROCONTROL39 Member States39 Member States

UAC MaastrichtUAC Maastricht

Central Flow Management UnitCentral Flow Management Unit

Central Route Charges OfficeCentral Route Charges Office

Institute of Air Navigation Services Institute of Air Navigation Services

Experimental Centre Experimental Centre

Headquarters – SES SupportHeadquarters – SES Support

Network ManagerNetwork Manager

The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

Challenges Driving R&D

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Flig

hts

in E

uro

pe

(M

illio

n)

An

nu

al G

row

th

Long-TermAverage Growth

Long-TermTrend

Traffic in Europe

AnnualGrowth Forecast

Trafic

ActualTraffic

IFR traffic in Europe1960-2010 historical figures

2011-2030 forecast

USA Traffic Growth

• US air traffic will increase by the equivalent of two major hub airports each year through 2020.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

13019

99

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Inde

x (1

999=

100)

US Europe

Source: EUROCONTROL PRC/ FAA

How Robust is the Growth?

Traffic

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Time

Gulf War1991

KosovoCrisis1999

9/112001

SARS2002

IRAQ War2003

Oil Price Rises2005+Oil Crisis

1980

Economic Boom

1987-88

IT Boom1997-98

2009

Global Recession2008

2012

.

.

1.5 million flights will go un-accommodated if extra capacity is not provided

2000

8.0 Million Flights8.0 Million Flights 16.0 Million Flights16.0 Million Flights

Traffic tripled over last 25 years Traffic will double over next 20 years

Capacity.

2033

Delays

Airlines

Airports

En-RouteMiscSecurity

Weather

Primary Delay Distribution for 2011

27.7 million minutes of delays (2010) costing €2.0 Bn.27.7 million minutes of delays (2010) costing €2.0 Bn.

20% of flights will be delayed by 2020 if system is not modernised 20% of flights will be delayed by 2020 if system is not modernised

Environment

• Top of political agenda

• Aviation must continue to make significant effort to reduce its impact on environment

Airports and the Network

Airports and the Network

• Runway and Airport capacity limitations can block growth

• Need to make more efficient use of existing capacity

– Efficient surface management

– Connectivity with ATM Network

• Airports are a key component of ATM Network

• Must integrate airports into the Network

Airport constraints

Flights in Europe - 2030• In most-likely scenario (C), 2 million flights not accommodated

Airports are a small but persistent source of primary delay

Breakdown average delay per flight 2007-2011

13,412,6

10,7

14,7

10,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ave

rage

dep

artu

re d

elay

per

flig

ht in

min

utes

Airport Primary Other Primary En-Route Primary Reactionary

Source: www.eurocontrol.int/coda

The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

Meeting the ChallengesR&D within a Framework

The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

SESAR

Single European Sky (SES) Framework• To address defragmentation

• Legislation adopted by EU Council and Parliament

– 20 April 2004, amended November 2009.

• 4 SES Regulations

Fra

me

wo

rk

Se

rvice Pro

vision

Airsp

ace

Intero

pera

bility

Performance-drivenPerformance-driven

Single European Sky ATM Research(SESAR)

SESAR

• Technical/operational change, supported by Single European Sky legislation

• Public Private Partnership

• Direct involvement of aviation industry in all phases

• Address European needs and Global interoperability

SESAR

• Technical/operational change, supported by Single European Sky legislation

• Public Private Partnership

• Direct involvement of aviation industry in all phases

• Address European needs and Global interoperability

Needs:

• Turn off fragmented approach

• Accelerate evolution in response to challenges

• Synchronise plans and actions

– from research to operations

Needs:

• Turn off fragmented approach

• Accelerate evolution in response to challenges

• Synchronise plans and actions

– from research to operations

A new ATM System is required

19

• Public-private partnership to manage the SESAR Development Phase

– Execute the European ATM Master Plan

– One single ATM R&D programme in Europe

• Innovation from private sector

• Public financial stability & enforcement power

• 2 founding members:

• 15 industry members:

• SJU Budget: ~2.1 B€, till 31 Dec 2016

SESAR Joint Undertaking

The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

NEXTGEN

NEXTGEN ARRANGEMENTS

• Strong regulatory basis – FAA is Regulator and manages NextGen programme

• Funding – Lacks a permanent spending bill

– FAA Reauthorisation and Reform Act of 2011 passed in the U.S. House of Representatives on April 1, 2011 included a critical amendment authorising a public-private partnership (PPP)

• FAA governance supported by the NextGen Advisory Committee (NAC) – FAA can solicit a consensus-based set of recommendations

– Forum to obtain a commitment of resources and/or synchronised planning between government and industry

– Identify opportunities for industry participation in NextGen implementation.

SESAR/NEXTGEN COOPERATION

• European and US authorities agreement on the cooperation of SESAR and NextGen.– Agreement is technical annex to European Commission

and US Federal Aviation Administration memorandum of co-operation for civil aviation research and development.

– Contributes to essential standardisation of ATM systems, to be pursued through the International Civil Aviation Organisation.

– Interoperability essential for airspace users operating in US and EU airspaces.

Regulatory Impact of SESAR and NextGen on Airports

• Through SESAR and Next Gen, EC and FAA will define areas in which Airports need to focus their investments

• The SESAR and NextGen Standardisation and Regulatory Roadmaps will provide the basis for a more global approach

• EC and FAA will work with ICAO in attempt to establish a global Regulatory Roadmap – On ANC12 Agenda– Airports will be consulted through normal EASA/EC

Rulemaking processes

• Total estimated cost for SESAR deployment in Europe is 30 Billion Euro– Covers aircraft, ATM Airport and military equipage costs

SESAR versus NEXTGEN (1)

• Both benefit from established regulatory frameworks

• Europe more fragmented but USA and FAA face same issues of buy-in and governance complications

• Programmes share similar aims

• SESAR

– stable funding

– EUROCONTROL’s expertise at its core

• NEXTGEN

– unstable funding to date

– PPP?

SESAR versus NEXTGEN (2)

• SESAR

– stable funding

– time limited – what happens post-2016?

– EUROCONTROL’s expertise at its core

• NEXTGEN

– unstable funding to date

– greater longevity

Conclusions

• Capacity requires ATM network-wide actions

• Airports can impede traffic growth

• SESAR and NEXTGEN will facilitate the definition of global and regional regulatory requirements for airports

– regulatory roadmaps

• Airports to be integrated in the overall network

• Europe and FAA both pro-active in achieving a common set of equipment and procedures