The Eurogas Roadmap 2050 - EPSU€¦ · Bcm *incl. district heating, raw material and energy branch 12 Emissions Data for 2010: ProspEnertool 40 32 14 18 16 11 19 13 10 22 28 19 0

18/04/2012

1

Sector Social Dialogue Committee on Gas

Brussels, 16 April 2012

Beate RaabeSecretary General

The Eurogas Roadmap 2050

2

Members’ areas of activity

Wholesale and retail

Distribution

18/04/2012

2

3

Members• 33 companies• 17 associations

4

Eurogas Roadmap 2050

80% carbon dioxide reductions

By 2050 compared with 1990

In energy related sectors

18/04/2012

3

5

Residential & Services

Industry

Transport

Power generation

1990 2010 2030 2050

Energy related sectors + reductions

-82%

-71%

-83%

-69%

-93%

6

Residential and Services

What is needed in the future ? • Energy efficiency • Behaviour change • Renovation • Switching to gas technologies• Promotion of hybrid technologies

• 18% of CO2 emissions• 200 million households• 5.5 billion m2 of offices• 70% of energy use for heating• Gas leader with 40%

The sector today:

-71%

18/04/2012

4

7

Industrial sector

The sector today: • 15% of CO2 emissions • Natural gas 30% market share• Energy intensity gains achieved• Mostly covered by ETS

What is needed in the future ? • Maintain EU industry • Ensure EU industry competitiveness• Switching to less polluting alternatives• CCS after 2030

-83%

8

Transport sector

The sector today: • 30% of CO2 emissions• Quasi-monopoly of oil with 95% • 70% of energy used by cars • Natural gas is a niche with 0,4%

What is needed in the future ? • Switch to alternatives, e.g. gas/biomethane• More action on NOx, particulates and noise• Support infrastructure for alternatives• Promote public transport• Use rail + waterways more for freight • Behaviour change

-69%

18/04/2012

5

9

Power sector

The sector today:• 35% of CO2 emissions. • Nuclear:28%, Coal: 26%, Gas:22%• CHP represents 22%

What is needed in the future? • Switch to renewables • Switch to gas• Gas and renewables • No lock-in • CCS after 2030

-93%

10

Gas increases its share + supports renewables

Primary energy consumption

Data for 2010 are estimates

422276

108

596

567

397

169

222

240

220

206

297443

456

387

78179

288

396

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1990 2010 2030 2050

Electricity

(exchange)Hydrogen

RES

Nat. gas

Nuclear

Oil

SolidsMtoe

26%

32%

18/04/2012

6

11

enables progress towards a low-carbon economy

Gas consumption

Data for 2010 are estimates

63

162203 191

140

210 152

86120

106 114

112

28

33

34

4247

40

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2010 2030 2050

Others*

Transport

Industry

Resid. & Service

Power

Bcm

*incl. district heating, raw material and energy branch

12

Emissions

Data for 2010: ProspEner tool

4032

14

18

16

11

19

13

10

22

28

19

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 2010 2030 2050

Transport

Industry

Resid. & Service

Power

%

Down, thanks to fuel switch to gas and increased energy efficiency in the short and medium term

18/04/2012

7

13

• Clear demand signals

• Good relations with exporting and transit countries

• Full, speedy + harmonisedimplementation of EU internal market

• Better information to the public

What are the EU issues around gas?

14

Comparison: Commission Energy Roadmap Eurogas Roadmap

What do they have in common?

• Focus on energy efficiency

• Substitution of high carbon fuels in power generation and transport

• Implementation of CCS

18/04/2012

8

15

Comparison: Commission Energy Roadmap Eurogas Roadmap

Where is the Energy Roadmap different?

• Predominant role of electricity in residential, services and transport sectors

• No potential explored for natural gas in transport

• No more role for natural gas except for electricity back-up generation

16

Comparison: Commission Energy Roadmap Eurogas Roadmap

Consequences of Energy Roadmap:

• Large investments in the electricity distribution system due to the penetration of RES

• Less use of the gas distribution and storage infrastructures in place –Stranded costs!

18/04/2012

9

17

Contact details

Av. de Cortenbergh 172 1000 BrusselsBELGIUM

Phone: +32 2 894 48 48

[email protected]

www.eurogas.org