The etowah project

The etowah project

An examination of church trends in a typical county that mirrors the national issues of church attendance and the decline of the local church

background

• 6 year project geared to find solutions to the most common problem of church attendance in the Etowah County area

• 50 years of data was collected from yearly reports presented to the state of Alabama association (alsbom.org)

• Attendance, membership and age were examined in a comprehensive manner meant to determine the state of churches 50 years ago as compared to the current day

purpose

• To provide a micro-examination of the macro-universe problem of limited or extinguished church growth seen paradoxically in data provided through national surveys and determine the demographic makeup of the overall church

• All the necessary data was available in a centralized location for easy access

the specifics

• Demographic population as compared against Small Group Sunday School Attendance

• Analysis of Baptisms and Other Forms of Church Membership

• Overall Total Membership, Worship Attendance (Limited Period because of data) and Percentages as they Applied

the data

small group att avg

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

2009

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

baptisms

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

2009 -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Tota

l Num

ber o

f Bap

tism

s

baptisms data1. Baptisms represent the manner of noting a

new believer has been added

2. Baptisms have fallen from 1961 to Present by 40%

3. With one exception year (2007) baptisms have noteclipsed 1000 since 1982.

other additions

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

2009 -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Years

Tota

l Num

ber o

f Add

ition

s

other additions1. Other additions represent moves made by

established Christians (Not New Believers)

2. Other additions have fallen by almost 50% from 1961 the Present

3. Overall the decline has been consistent with onlysmall breaks in the decline

4. The numbers do not differentiate movement within the associational churches

baptisms and other additions

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Baptisms Other Additions

baptism and other additions1. Generally both Baptisms and Other Additions

have moved together – generally down

2. At only three (3) points in 50 years has Baptismsbeen more than Other Additions

3. Baptisms are generally those that are under age 18

birth to 5

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

6 to 11 years

1961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

12 to 17 years

1961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

18 to 24 years

1961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

25 to 34 years

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

34 to 54 years

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

55 and up

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

attendance by age1

96

11

96

21

96

31

96

41

96

51

96

61

96

71

96

81

96

91

97

01

97

11

97

21

97

31

97

41

97

51

97

61

97

71

97

81

97

91

98

01

98

11

98

21

98

31

98

41

98

51

98

61

98

71

98

81

98

91

99

01

99

11

99

21

99

31

99

41

99

51

99

61

99

71

99

81

99

92

00

02

00

12

00

22

00

32

00

42

00

52

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

01

0

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Birth to 5 6 to 11 12 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 54 55 and Up

attendance by age1. In 1961, the largest age group was 6 to 11 years;

in 2010, the largest is 55 and Up

2. The smallest group over the entire period was18 to 24 Year Old

3. All ages have been in decline since 1993, except 55 and Up

4. Since 1961, not only has the total number of peoplein small group declined, but it has aged by 44 Years over a 50 year time period

highlights by age5. Since 1961, Small Group Average Attendance has

dropped from 12029 to 7193 in 2010 – a decreaseof 41% (almost 1 in 2 people)

6. Since 1961, Total Sunday School Attendance hasdeclined from 20, 326 to 13,744 in 2010 – a decreaseof 31% (or 1 in 3 people)

highlights by age7. In 1961, 59% of church members

attended Small Group; In 2010, 29% of church membersattend Small Group

8. At the same time period, Resident Membershas increased from 20,574 in 1961 to 24,064 members in 2010

highlights by age9. In 1961, 59% of church members

attended Small Group; In 2010, 29% of church membersattend Small Group

10. At the same time period, Resident Membershas increased from 20,574 in 1961 to 24,064 members in 2010

highlights by age11. Census numbers (each 10 years) show that

the population of the county has increase from 96,980 in 1961 to 103,645 in 2010 an increase ofalmost 7,000 people over a 50 year period

age conclusions1. Over the past 50 years, the church population

has not only declined by almost 1 in 3, but has significantly aged without replication

2. As the age gets older, the potential for newbornspopulating the church decreases because of a depletion of child bearing ages

3. Multiple churches will be lost as the age gap continuesand death begins to further erodethe attendance numbers

age conclusions4. At the current rate of decline,

Small Groups will disappear in 26 years (assuminga consistent decline to zero)

5. 18 to 24 Year Olds have been declining at a rate ofwill be completely gone in 3 to 5 years (assuminga consistent decline to zero)

age conclusions