The Emergence of Global Environmental Politics How climate change became a central socioeconomic issue.

The Emergence of Global Environmental Politics

How climate change became a

central socioeconomic issue

Take away concepts

What is the “Tragedy of the Commons” and how relevant is it to modern environmental issues?

What factors led to the rise of the importance of environmental politics?

Factors affecting global environmental policy development.

Compare and contrast conventional vs. ecological views of economic activity.

Compare and contrast scientific vs. political motivations. What is an environmental policy life cycle?

Biosphere2 - A lesson in humility

$200 million facility designed to be a self-sustaining life-support system.

3.2 acre enclosed facility, many ecosystems, water and air recycling

Experiment in sustainability and complex systems.

Eight scientists sealed into Bio2 in 1991 - for 2 years.

What happened?

BIO2

O2 levels dropped (due to unset concrete), additional O2 pumped in. CO2 levels dangerously high.

Nutrient cycling didn’t work effectivelyTropical birds died after the first freeze.19 of 25 small mammals became extinct.Facility overrun by Arizona ant which killed off

introduced insects. Insect pollination stopped.Cost: $200 million for eight people over 2 years:

– $12.5 million per person annually failed to do what the earth does for “free”

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“Tragedy of the Commons” metaphor

Garrett Hardin (1968) seminal article:Ruination of a limited

resource when confronted by unlimited access by an expanding population.

Modern reference to Medieval English farmers’ use of pasture “commons”

Premise…(Common property resource management: CRM)

All farmers have access to enclosed “commons”

Farmers motivated ($) to maximize herd – Increased herd --> real unit profits– No (apparent) cost for commons use

Population growth coupled to increased resource use leads to overgrazing, erosion, eventual destruction of the commons.

Conclusion: “Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all”.

Common-Pool Resource Characteristics

Common Pool Resources: – Exclusion is difficult and joint use involves

subtractability Excludability:

– Ability to control access to resource– For many global problems it is impossible to control access

Subtractability:– Each user is capable of subtracting from general welfare– Inherent to all natural resource use.

How do these apply to Hardin’s premise?

Hardin’s proposed solutions

Socialism…but natural ecosystems suffered most in

communist countries

Privatization, or free enterprise…doesn’t work efficiently either

Four property rights systems

State Property– Total control over (national) resources, but dangers of over-

regulation (Ex: Forests).

Communal Property– Self-regulation works at local levels (Ex: Native American

salmon)

Private Property– Rational exploitation of resource. Costs & benefits accrue to the

same owner (Ex: Oil deposits).

Open Access– Open oceans, atmosphere, biota (ex: whales - depletion

occurred rapidly). Most global problems..

More...

“Pasture model” very provocative but not complete:– Assumes open access and no excludability– Demand was allowed to exceed supply,

unchecked.– Resource users were incapable of altering

the rules.

Examples of “Common-Pool Resources”

• Global oceans and atmosphere • Global Climate system• Biodiversity• Ocean Life• Deep seabed minerals• Stratospheric ozone layer• Antarctica

What are some others?

ECOSYSTEM SERVICE ECOSYSYSTEM FUNCTIONS EXAMPLES

Gas regulation Regulation of atmospheric chemical composition. CO2/O2 balance, O3 for UVB protection, and SOx levels.

Climate regulation Regulation of global temperature, precipitation, and other biologically mediated climatic processes at global or local levels.

Greenhouse gas regulation, DMS production affecting cloud formation.

Disturbance regulation Capacitance, damping and integrity of ecosystem response to environmental fluctuations.

Storm protection, flood control, drought recovery and other aspects of habitat response to environmental variability mainly controlled by vegetation structure.

Water regulation Regulation of hydrological flows. Provisioning of water for agricultural (such as irrigation) or industrial (such as milling) processes or transportation.

Water supply Storage and retention of water. Provisioning of water by watersheds, reservoirs and aquifers.Erosion control and sediment retention Retention of soil within an ecosystem.

Prevention of loss of soil by wind, runoff, or other removal processes, storage of stilt in lakes and wetlands.

Soil formation Soil formation processes. Weathering of rock and the accumulation of organic material.

Nutrient cycling Storage, internal cycling, processing and acquisition of nutrients. Nitrogen fixation, N, P and other elemental or nutrient cycles.

Waste treatment Recovery of mobile nutrients and removal or breakdown of excess or xenic nutrients and compounds. Waste treatment, pollution control, detoxification.

Pollination Movement of floral gametes. Provisioning of pollinators for the reproduction of plant populations.

Biological control Trophic-dynamic regulations of populations. Keystone predator control of prey species, reduction of herbivory by top predators.

Refugia Habitat for resident and transient populations. Nurseries, habitat for migratory species, regional habitats for locally harvested species, or overwintering grounds.

Food Production That portion of gross primary production extractable as food. Production of fish, game, crops, nuts, fruits by hunting, gathering, subsistence farming or fishing.

Raw materials That portion of gross primary production extractable as raw materials. The production of lumber, fuel or fodder.

Genetic resources Sources of unique biological materials and products.

Medicine, products for materials science, genes for resistance to plant pathogens and crop pests, ornamental species (pets and horticultural varieties of plants).

Recreation Providing opportunities for recreational activities. Eco-tourism, sportfishing, and other outdoor recreational activities.

Cultural Providing opportunities for non-commercial uses. Aesthetic, artistic, educational, spiritual, and/or scientific values of ecosystems.

Common-Pool Resources of Earth

Costanza et al., 1997

Putting a Price on Nature

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES VALUE

(trillion $US)

Soil formation 17.1

Recreation 3.0

Nutrient cycling 2.3

Water regulation and supply 2.3

Climate regulation (temperature and precipitation) 1.8

All other services 1.6

Habitat 1.4

Flood and storm protection 1.1

Food and raw materials production 0.8

Genetic resources 0.8

Atmospheric gas balance 0.7

Pollination 0.4

Total value of ecosystem services 33.3Costanza et al., 1997

Comparing Goods & Services

The planet provides many goods and services for “free”

Annual cost were we to do it: $33 TrillionNearly all of this is outside the market

system.

Global GDP (1997): $18 Trillion

How is pollution a “Commons” problem?

Inverse of pastureland problem (putting in, not taking away)

Unit cost of polluting is much less than cost of proper disposal.

Like other “Commons”, problem is compounded by population

The propriety of actions must be evaluated within the context of current conditions

…and “Shared” resources

Extend across exclusion boundaries:– Non-renewable resources– Migratory animals– Complex ecosystems (rainforests)– Global atmosphere and ocean quality– Regional seas, lakes, rivers

“Inexhaustible resources of the ocean…”(McVay, 1966)

Meyers and Worm, 2003

Challenges of the Global Commons

• Global = scaled up problem• Global = culturally diverse• Global = interwoven resources• New discovery - accelerating rates of

change• Requirement of unanimous agreement

as collective choice rule• Time is not our friend

Ostrom et al., 1999

Science and Policy Communities

Scientific enterprise – Inquisitorial system

• Data collection, interpretation, revision• Data --> hypothesis --> theory --> law

– Search for “truth”, following physical “laws”– “Truth” through data collection, estimates of

certainty– Medium: Published papers– Motivation: Recognition and advancement– Accountability: Peer review– Time-frame: Open-ended

Science and Policy, con’t

Policy-makers:– Adversarial system– Search for compromise, not “truth”– Compromise through negotiation– Medium: Instruments: Convention, Protocol,

Frameworks, MOU’s– Motivation: Legal compliance, achieving

settlement– Accountability: Legal and public opinion – Time-frame: Usually fixed, rigid

So…

Scientists and policy-makers have very different motivations, time-frames, accountabilities, and languages.

Differing motivations: Inquisitive vs. Adversarial - – a dominant source of misinformation.

Successful resolution of global environmental problems needs the input from both communities.

The problem needs people who can speak with/to both communities.

This is where you come in...

What factors led to the the rise of environmental politics?

Confluence of: – Global public opinion – Degraded urban (and natural) environments– economic pressures – scientific observations and monitoring – “well-timed” natural climate anomalies– International political leadership

Environmentalism emerges

Social movement in the 1960’s– 1963: Silent Spring (R. Carson)– 1967:Stockholm Conference (114 countries)– 1967: Apollo photographs of Earth– 1970: first Earth Day

The pollution paradigm– Local/regional (not global as many issue are today)

• Air, water, food, diversity

– Concerns: poisons, litter, population, overexploitation– Cleanup: the zero standard

Source: Dr. Paul N. Edwards (Univ. Mich)

1970s: Pivotal Decade

Earth Day (1970)– EPA was established

Beginnings of sustained climate science and policy interaction

Limits to Growth (Donella Meadows, 1972)– long-term global trends in population, economics, and the

environment.

Supersonic Transport controversy (1970’s)– Front page news on Ozone depletion

Toward a Global Vision (by way of a national one)

UN Conference on Human Environment (1972)…Studies on:– Critical Environmental problems (1971)– Man’s Impact on Climate (1972)– Global monitoring networks for CO2, pollutants

1973: Natural climate anomalies– Sahel Drought, Peruvian anchovy failure– Soviet Wheat crop failure

1974: Oil Crisis– Dept. Energy Formed– 1977: Carbon Dioxide Impact Assessment

• First sustained anthropogenic climate change research effort

Events leading to enhanced awareness of Climate Change

• Human modification of the atmosphere• Radioactive fallout, (since 1940’s, 1960’s)• Supersonic Transport and strat. clouds (1970’s)• Ozone depletion (EPA bans aerosol can CFC’s,

1976)• “Nuclear Winter” debates (1982-1985)• Chernobyl (1986) - impacts W. Europe• Antarctic Ozone hole (1985)• Summer, 1988: Heat, drought, water shortages• Sea ice and ice sheet melting

The USGCRP

US Global Change Research Program– Proposed by Reagan in 1989 (Bush, 1990)

~$2 billion annual budget– About half of the total world research effort– Predominantly satellite-based programs

Allows administrations to learn more about the problem, potential impacts, and mitigation strategies (but significant US policy action has been deferred)

Taking Action: IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

– Established in 1988– UN Environmental program– World Environmental Program

Assess the “State of the Art” in climate scienceRepresents all interested parties

– Scientists, Governments, NGO’s

“The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.”

http://www.ipcc.ch

IPCC (con’t)

2500 of the world’s leading climate scientists and technical experts contribute reports.

Produce comprehensive and balanced assessments of climate change science, impacts, and adaptation and mitigation options.

Extensive peer-review and governmental review ensures scientific credibility and policy relevance.

IPCC Reportsfour IPCC Reports:

1st 1990 2nd 19953rd 20014th AR 2007

Each Report has 3 Working Groups:a. Scientific Aspects of Climate Changeb. Socioeconomic impacts and

Adaptabilityc. Mitigation measures

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Economics and Environmental Policy: Old

Economics and resource availability/quality are linked fundamentally, but how?

But most economic systems do not reflect resource use or ecological degradation– “Frontier Economics” : Nature consists of a set of effectively

unlimited resources; humans are separate from ecology.– Based on Neoclassical economics, which assumes:

• Free market will always maximize social welfare• There is an infinite supply of resources (as sinks for waste)

– (Provided the free market is operating and healthy)

This view has been under attack since the 1960’s

GNP/GDP are misleading measures

GNP/GDP poor measures of economic and societal health:– They hide (do not include) the environmental

effects of producing and distributing goods.– They don’t include the depletion of natural

resources/assets, environmental “services” upon which all economies depend.

Actually including these (and related) costs would fundamentally alter economies

Economics and Environmental Policy: New

Paradigm shift (1970s-present): Neoclassic Economics --> Sustainable Development

Economic growth cannot proceed at the expense of earth’s natural capital and life-support systems.

The world economy must live off earth’s “interest”Economic systems should include “costs” of resource use.Means:

– Reduce consumption – Improved efficiency– Reduced population– Alternative energy sources– Renewable resource management

Economic Solutions (to accommodate environ. “costs”)

“Mutual coercion, mutually agreed upon…”

– Regulation– Subsidies– Withdrawing harmful subsidies– Tradable rights– Green taxes– User fees

• All have Innovation, Competitiveness, Gov’t cost and revenue implications

Global Environmental Politics

Not a level playing field, yet states must strive for concensus

Main determinants of policy:– Veto Power and Coalitions– Trade and Self-interest– Economic power– Public opinion– Negotiation (bargaining) among stake-holders

Environmental Policy Life Cycle

Recognition– Identifying and quantifying the problem

Formulation– Finding solutions

Implementation– Implement solutions to mitigate problem

Control & Monitoring– Assess impact of policy, revise as necessary

International Regimes

Set of norms, rules, or decision-making procedures which lead to convergence of opinion.

Convention: Legal instrument containing binding obligations

Framework Convention: Establishes the groundrules for cooperation without binding obligations.

Protocols: Establishes more formal, specific obligations.

Non-binding agreement: Soft law, varying degrees of effectiveness (Marine Pollution)

1992 “Earth Summit” on Sustainability

UNCED - AGENDA21. UN Conference on the Environment And Development: – Held in Rio, 1992 (150 nations, 10,000 delegates).– Preceded by two years of discussions on domestic

and global issues, inequities, and responsibilities.– Final negotiating session at Rio - AGENDA21

• Global plan of action for more sustainable societies.• Non-binding agreement• Industrialized countries asked to accept responsibility to

change their “unsustainable lifestyles” - met with resistance.

Preamble to AGENDA21

Humanity stands at a defining moment in history. We are confronted with a perpetuation of disparities between and within nations, a worsening of poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy, and the continuing deterioration of the ecosystems on which we depend for our well-being. However, integration of environment and development concerns and greater attention to them will lead to the fulfillment of basic needs, improved living standards for all, better protected and managed ecosystems and a safer, more prosperous future. No nation can achieve this on its own; but together we can - in a global partnership for sustainable development.

AGENDA21 as example of how environmental policy rapidly becomes complicated

US and other developed nations failed to commit resources to support sustainable development. Blocked proposals to change consumption patterns.

Developing countries blocked establishment of norms for forest management.

Many issues had split responses from developed and developing states (e.g. climate change and oil producing (inland vs. coastal) states).

AGENDA21 set into motion progress toward sustainability - first transparent conference.

Environmental issues are now becoming dominant factors in global politics

What is Columbia doing about this?

Prof. Jeff Sachs, Director of Columbia’s Earth Institute

CEI Mission:“Mobilizing the sciences and public policy

to build a prosperous and sustainable future.”

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Columbia Earth Institute

Some CEI Initiatives:UN Millennium Development GoalsMillennium Villages21st Century CitiesEl Nino: Climate and SocietyAbrupt Climate Change

CO2 sequestrationGlobal Roundtable of Climate ChangeMasters and Ph.D. programsPh.D. and PoS in Sustainable Development