The Effects Of Climate Change on Marine Species ...climate.socialsciences.hawaii.edu/Courses/GEOG401/GEOG...•The effects of climate change are not restricted to the plant and animal

The Effects Of Climate Change on Marine Species,

Terrestrial Species, and

Mankind

GEOG 401

Guest lecture by Ryan Longman

• There is an overwhelming amount of evidence that shows that our physical climate systems have changed over the past 150 years. – Burrows et al., 2011

– Diffenbaugh & Field, 2013

– Hansen et al., 2006, 2010, 2013

– IPCC, 2001,2007,2013

– Mahlstein et al., 2012

– Williams et al., 2007

• The science is clear and the question now is:

• How will these changes affect life on this planet?

• Direct impacts of climate change have been documented on every continent, in every ocean and in most major taxonomic groups – Allen et al. 2012 – Adams et al. 2012 – Andergregg et al. 2013 – Breshears et al., 2008 – Bonan, 2008 – Grace et al., 2002 – Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999, 2007 – Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010 – Parmesan and Yohe, 2003 – Parmesan, 2006 – Walther et al. 2002,2009,2013 – Zaho and Running, 2010

• These studies and many others have provided a clear, globally coherent conclusion: • 20th century climate change has already affected

the Earths Biota.

• The effects of climate change are not restricted to the plant and animal species of the planet they are also affecting mankind in many ways. – Battisti and Naylor., 2009

– Biermann and Boas., 2010

– Bultzer, 2012

– Ciais et al., 2005

– Dune et al., 2013

– Garcia-Herrera., 2010

– Hsiang et al., 2013

– Rockstrom et al., 2009

• Climate Change is a very serious issue that we all must face. • Some people on this planet are already feeling the

effects.

Effects on Marine Species Part 1

• Approximately 25% of the anthropogenic C02 currently enters the ocean.

• During the 20th century

– Sea surface temperature increased by 0.74°C

– Sea Level has risen by 17 cm

– Ocean chemistry has changed

– Aquatic community structure has been altered

1. Changing Coral Reefs • Why are reefs important?

• Reefs are among the most biologically diverse and economically important ecosystems on the planet providing services that are vital to human societies and industries: – Fisheries (food source and habitat)

– Coastal protection

– New biological compounds

– Tourism

1. Depleted carbonate concentrations

• Reduced calcification rates have been measured in the tropics. • CO2 reacts with water to produce carbonic acid

• Carbonic acid reacts with carbonate ions making them unavailable to biological systems

• Decreasing carbonate ion concentrations reduce the rate of calcification of marine organisms such as reef-building corals (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007)

What other pressures are put on reefs. 2. Coral bleaching

– Coral reef bleaching events have increased in frequency.

– There is no evidence that corals will be able to adapt to the bleaching (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007)

3. Sediment inputs

4. Nutrient eutrophication

5. Pollution from coastlines

Multiple anthropogenic stressors reduce the ability for ecosystems to recover from disturbances (Bruno et al., 2007)

2. Reduced Habitat Complexity • Clear influences of climate change are observed in

habitat forming species.

• Combined these species form habitats for thousands of other species

(Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010)

– Corals

– Sea grass

– Mangroves

– Salt marsh grasses

– Oysters

3. Changes in Food web dynamics • Increases in water temperature may effect

population connectivity. – Temperature controls the metabolic rates of all organisms.

– Increased temperature = reduce larval durations

– Larval mortality are already high so even a small reduction in duration could affect recruitment. (O’Connor, 2007)

– Development rates may change causing pheneological mismatches between larval organisms and the availability of food. (Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2007)

4. Exotic Species and Disease • Accelerated warming of high latitude environments has increased

the chances that species from lower latitudes can establish themselves (Stachowicz, 2002).

• Climate change has also been implicated in the recent variation in the prevalence and severity of disease outbreaks in marine ecosystems. (Harvell et al., 2009)

“A warmer world is a sicker world”

5. Community Shifts • Climate variables are the primary drives of distribution and dynamics

of marine plankton and fish.

• Change in the climate will result in: – regimen shifts (structure and function)

– poleward range shifts

– timing of peak biomass

• These shifts are expected to have profound effects on the distribution and phonology of species and the productivity of aquatic ecosystems. (Parmesan 2006)

Effects on Terrestrial Species Part 2

• The Earths temperature has warmed by approximately 0.85°C over the past 100 years. – Diurnal temperature ranges have changed

– Freeze thaw periods are lengthening

– Decrease in snow cover and ice extent

– Changes in precipitation

• There is now ample evidence that recent climatic changes have affected a broad range of organisms with diverse geographical distributions.

1. Changes in Phenology • Phenology- The timing of seasonal activities of plants and animals. • Common changes occur

– Earlier arrival of migrant birds

– Earlier appearance of butterflies

– Earlier spawning in amphibians

– Earlier shooting and flowering of plants

– Spring activates have occurred earlier since 1960 (Walther et al., 2002)

• Why do changes in phenology matter?

• Earlier leaf unfolding may lead to a longer growing season but may also increase the risk of damage by late frost.

• Changes in the synchrony of different trophic levels (Walther et al., 2010)

• Pollinators and plants

Mean advance of spring 2.3 days/decade (677 species over the last four decades Parmesan & Yohe 2003)

2. Biological Invasion • Global warming has enabled alien species to expand into regions in

which they previously could not survive and reproduce (Dukes and Mooney 1999, Walther et al., 2009)

• Climate change can:

– Directly influence the likelihood of alien species being introduced and increase their chances of naturalization.

– Indirectly effect ecosystems because they may become less resistant to invasive species.

• What could extreme climatic events mean for invasion?

– Release confided aquatic species in the event of a flood

– Remove vegetation, creating bare soil that is easier to colonize

– Influence human activity that my increase the chance of invasion (i.e. The opening of the North West Passage).

(Walther et al., 2009)

3. Tree Mortality • There is a great potential for changes in climate to trigger rapid and

widespread vegetation die-offs due to a combination of drought, warmer temperatures and infestation by pathogen and or pests. (Allen et al., 2010)

• Extensive forest die-offs will alter the fluxes of energy and water in affected regions (Anderegg et al, 2013)

• What are some ways water and energy will be altered? – Decreased canopy cover (NPP)

– Increased runoff

– Increased radiation

– Increased soil evaporation

• Forest die off can have substantial

indirect and secondary effects on

hydrological processes

(Adams et al., 2012)

3a. Drought Induced Mortality • Severe droughts have caused extensive mortality of trees worldwide

(Breshears et al., 2005; Allen et al., 2010)

• Terrestrial ecosystems are a major sink in the global carbon cycle sequestering as much as 25% of anthropogenic emissions (Bonan 2008)

• NPP (net primary production) is the carbon fixed in biomass.

• Global NPP slightly decreased in the past decade

– NH increase 65% (longer growing season)

– SH decrease 70% (reduced water availability (Zhao and running, 2010)

Why do changes in NPP Mater?

Increased drought could turn ecosystems into carbon sources, contributing to a positive carbon climate feedback. (Ciais et al., 2005)

3b. Heat stress and Infestation • Heat induced mortality including infestation rapidly alters the size,

age and spatial structure of forests. (Anderegg et al., 2013)

• Fire can result in a major reduction in understory biomass (Adams et al., 2012)

• During the 2003 heat wave in Europe there was a 30% reduction in GPP reversed 4 years carbon sequestration. (Ciais et al., 2005)

• Patterns of mortality are often linked to the interaction between climate conditions and pest dynamics (Adams et al., 2012)

• Climate warming is correlated to pathogen outbreaks (Harvell et al., 2009)

• Animal migrations can increase the disease transmission (Harvell et al., 2009)

• Milder winters – decreased insect die back (Walther et al., 2009)

Many recent examples of drought and heat related tree-mortality from around the world suggests that no forest type or climate zone is invulnerable to anthropogenic climate change even in environments not normally considered water limited. (Allen et. al., 2010)

4. Range Shifts • Under changing climatic conditions species are forced to adapt,

change their geographical range or die. (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003, Breshears et al., 2008, Walther et al., 2010)

• Horizontal (poleward) shifts have been documented on all continents and in most of the major oceans. (Parmesan, 2006)

• e.g. 6.1 km per decade northward (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003)

• Vertical (upslope) shifts have been document across many mountain regions across the world (Pounds et al., 1999, Grace et al., 2002, Breshears et

al., 2008)

• e.g. 6.1 m per decade upward (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003)

• The treeline is expected to move upslope with warming (Grace et al., 2002)

• At low elevations climate change is also likely to reduce the area and increase fragmentation as the lower tree line moves upward in elevation (Grace et al., 2002)

What does this mean for Hawai‘i?

Effects on Mankind Part 3

• There are currently 7.2 billion people living on this planet.

• During the 20th century alone population has grown from 1.6 to 6 billion people

• Population is currently growing at a rate of 1.14% per year

• By 2050 there will be an additional 2 billion people added to the planet. (US Census Bureau)

1. Climate Change and Agriculture • Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on

agricultural productivity, farm incomes and food security.

• Experimental and crop-based models for major grains in some regions show direct yield losses in the range of 2.5 to 16% for every 1°C increase in seasonal temperature (Battisti and Naylor, 2009)

• Many people depend on agriculture not only for physical but also

economic survival. • One of the fundamental factors in the fall of Rome was a marked

decline in agriculture attributed to climate change. (Huntington, 1917)

2. Climate and Labor Capacity • A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas induced warming is a global

scale increase in absolute humidity.

• Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid latitudes during peak months of heat stress. (Delworth et al., 1999)

• Environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades.

– Future projections to 80% by 2050

– By 40% in 2200 (Dunne, 2013)

3. Climate and Conflict • Large deviations from normal precipitation and mild temperatures

systematically increases the risk of conflict.

• Studies in psychology and economics have repeatedly found that individuals and groups are more likely to exhibit aggressive or violent behavior toward others with increasing temperatures (Hsiang et al. 2013)

• Warmer temperatures, lower or more extreme rainfall or warmer ENSO conditions lead to a 1 to 40% increase in conflict per 1 sd change in an observed climate variable.

• Amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

• The collapse of many great empires throughout

history corresponds to changes in the climate. (Hsiang et al. 2013)

4. Heat Waves • The 10 warmest years on record occurred

since 1998. (Hansen et al., 2013)

• In the 2003 heat wave in Europe 40,000 people died. (Garcia-Herrera et al. 2010)

– July temperatures were 6°C above the long term mean

– Precipitation was 50% below the average (Ciais et al., 2005)

• The climate has warmed by 0.85°C between 1880-2012 (IPCC, 2013)

• Under a business as usual scenario warming is likely to increase by an additional 2.6° C to 4.8°C by the end of the century. (IPCC, 2013)

• What does this mean for the potential of future heat waves?

5. Climate Refugees • Climate change will fundamentally affect the lives of millions of

people who will be forced over the next decades to leave their villages and cities to seek refuge in other areas.

• The number of people at risk from sea level rise by 2050 is likely to be 162 million

• In addition, 50 million people could become refugees due to droughts and other climate change impacts

• In total 212 climate refugees by 2050. (Myers, 2002)

• The refugee crisis will surpass all know refugee crises in the past

• The existing governance mechanisms are not sufficiently equipped to deal with this looming crisis

• Planning cannot wait until 2050, it must begin now! (Biermann and Boas, 2010)

• Since the Industrial Revolution, a new era has arisin, “the Antrhopocene” (Steffen et al., 2007)

• There is now a growing risk that several thresholds are about to be exceeded. (Rockström, et al., 2009)

• We are standing at the cross roads and pretty soon there will be no turning back!

Thank you!

Questions?

• Marine – Hoegh-Guldberg, 2007 – Reduced calcification, Coral bleaching, Sediment

inputs, Nutrient Eutropication Pollution from coastlines, Food web

– Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010 – Reduced habitat-Pheneological mismatches

– Bruno et al. 2007 – Recovery – Multiple Stressors

– Oconnor, 2007 – Larval Mortality – Metabolic rates

– Stachowicz 2002 – Invasive species

– Harvell et al. 2009 - Disease

– Parmesan, 2006 – Community shifts- Range, timing

• Terrestrial – Allen et al. 2010 – Tree mortality –drought temperature infestation

– Adams et al. 2012- Hydrological effects – Fire - Pests

– Andergregg et al. 2013 – Energy fluxes

– Breshears et al., 2008 –Drought –Range shifts

– Bonan, 2008 - Carbon sink (25%)

– Grace et al., 2002 - Tree line range shifts

– Parmesan, 2006 – poleward advance

– Parmesan and Yohe, 2003 – Quantify advances

– Walther et al.

• 2002 – Phenological changes

• 2009 – Biological Invasion, North west passage, mild winters

• 2013 – Range Shift, Food web, community structure.

– Zaho and Running, 2010 – Hemispherical Carbon

– Dukes and Mooney, 1999 – Biological invasion

– Pounds et al., 1999 – Upslope range shift

• Human – Battisti and Naylor 2009 – Agriculture/temperature

– Huntington, 1917 – Fall of rome

– Delworth et al., 1999 – Tropical and Mid Heat stress.

– Dune, 2013 – Labor Capacity

– Hisang et al., 2013 – Climate and Conflict

– Garcia-Heriera et al., 2010 – European heat wave

– Ciais et al., 2005 – Heat wave facts

– Myers, 2002 – Climate refugees

– Biermann and Boas, 2010 – Refugee Policy

• Global – Burrows et al., 2011 – Velocity of climate change

– Diffenbaugh & Field, 2013 – Absolute temperature change/ velocity

– Hansen et al., 2006, 2010,2013 – Global temperature change

– IPCC, 2001,2007,2013 – Changes to physical systems

– Loarie et al., 2009 – Velocity of climate change

– Mahlstein et al., 2012 – Absolute temperature change / Novel climates

– Rockström et al., 1999 – Thresholds

– Steffen et al., 2007 - Anthropocene

– Williams et al., 2007 – Novel climates