The Economy - comptroller.nyc.gov · Decline in the Consensus Forecast for 2016 Real GDP: 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5%: 2.3%: 2.4%. 2.5 ... Gap to be Closed - January 2016 ... Authority faces

New York City Comptroller Scott M. Stringer @scottmstringer


The Economy


Job Creation in the Last Three Recoveries(Net Private-Sector Jobs, in Thousands)

-176

-84

6

40 35 4467

77 8597

-22

-112

-40

20

5265 73

45

-104

27

94 91 98120

98

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

S&L Crisis Dot com, 9-11

Great Recession


NYC Employment Growth by Super-Sectors, 2009 - 2015Pe

rcen

t Cha

nge

in P

ayro

ll Jo

bs 23.2%

19.5%

29.9%

10.0%

2.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

TAMI EDS & MEDS RETAIL BUSINESS INDUSTRIAL


New Jobs Created by Wage Level, Current to Prior Recovery2003 - 2008 2009 - 2015

High-Wage Industries

35%

Medium-Wage

Industries24%

Low-Wage Industries

41%


23%

Medium-Wage

Industries20%

Low-Wage Industries

57%


Real Wage Growth by Industries, 2009 - 2014(2014 Dollars)

Average Wage in 2009

Average Wage in 2014

Change in Real Wages 2009-2014

High-Wage Industries $170,471 $187,992 10.30%

Medium-Wage Industries $69,921 $72,771 4.10%

Low-Wage Industries $42,016 $40,687 -3.20%


Real Wage Cumulative Growth(by Industries, 2009 – 2014)

10.3%

4.1%

-3.2%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Low-Wage Industries

Medium-Wage Industries



4.2% 4.0%3.6% 3.3%

2.4%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens Staten Island

Change in Real Wages and Drop in Unemployment Rates by Borough 2009 – 2015

-2.5%-2.9%

7.5%

-3.0%

-1.6%


Unemployment Rate

Real Wage Gain

Real Wage Loss

Decline in the Consensus Forecast for 2016 Real GDP

2.9%

2.8%

2.7%

2.5%

2.3%

2.4%

2.5%

2.6%

2.7%

2.8%

2.9%

3.0%

2015 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2016

Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators



The Budget



($ in millions) FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019Gap to be Closed - November 2015 Plan $0 ($1,239) ($1,923) ($2,908)

$723 $974 $1,358 24 25 43

270 235 261 $1,017 $1,234 $1,662

General Reserve $0 $0 $0 Capital Stabilization Reserve (500) 0 0 Re-estimate of Prior Years' Payables and Receivables 0 0 0 Subtotal Reallocation of Prior-Year Resources and Reserve ($500) $0 $0

Total Additional Resources $3,558 $517 $1,234 $1,662

Uses of ResourcesAgency Expenditure Changes ($744) ($798) ($882)Pensions (582) (608) (614)Health + Hospitals 0 0 0 Taxi Medallion Sales (107) (150) (110)$15/Hr Minimum Wage (5) (34) (85)

Total Use of Resources ($1,438) ($1,590) ($1,691)

Net Change Since November $2,160 ($921) ($356) ($29)

Change in Budget Stabilization Account ($2,160) $2,160 $0 $0

Gap to be Closed - January 2016 Plan $0 $0 ($2,279) ($2,937)

($492)(569)(337)

00

($1,398)

$700500400

$1,600

January Plan Changes (City-Funds)

Additional ResourceTax RevenuesNon-Tax RevenuesCitywide Savings ProgramSubtotal Revenues and Savings Program

$873281804

$1,958

$873281804

$1,958


High- and Low-Growth Expenditures (Adjusted for Pre-Payments)

($ in millions) FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 16- 20Annual Growth

Salaries and Wages $25,250 $25,506 $26,813 $28,410 $28,953 14.7% 3.5%Debt Service 6,111 6,717 7,173 7,678 8,223 34.6% 7.7%Health Insurance 5,681 6,077 6,448 7,009 7,568 33.2% 7.4%Other Fringe Benefits 3,546 3,664 3,849 4,079 4,302 21.3% 4.9%Judgments & Claims 695 746 782 817 855 23.0% 5.3%Subtotal $41,283 $42,711 $45,065 $47,992 $49,901 20.9% 4.9%

Pensions $9,231 $9,287 $9,441 $9,622 $9,995 8.3% 2.0%Medicaid 6,078 6,220 6,220 6,220 6,220 2.3% 0.6%Public Assistance 1,481 1,502 1,513 1,524 1,535 3.7% 0.9%Other OTPS 25,069 23,186 23,321 23,556 23,858 -4.8% -1.2%Subtotal $41,858 $40,195 $40,495 $40,921 $41,608 -0.6% -0.1%

Expenditures Before Reserve and Prior-Year Re-estimates $83,141 $82,906 $85,560 $88,913 $91,509 10.1% 2.4%

General Reserve $300 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 233.3% 35.1%Capital Stabilization Reserve $0 $500 $0 $0 $0 Prior-Year Re-estimates ($400) $0 $0 $0 $0

Total $83,041 $84,406 $86,560 $89,913 $92,509 11.4% 2.7%


Estimated FY 2016 Overtime vs Overtime Cap($ in millions)

$600

$238

$545

$161

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

Police CorrectionFY 16 Forecast OT Cap (Existing for Police, Potential for Correction)

$55

$132 MillionTotal Potential Savings

$77


$865

$983 $1,041

$1,168

$1,309

$1,036

$1,120 $1,175

$1,425

$1,715

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

46% Increase

Citywide Funding for Homeless Services($ in millions)

Department of Homeless Services

Citywide


Citywide Funding by Major Categories for Homeless Services

($ in millions) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

Adult Shelter Operations $278 $310 $326 $356 $424 Family Shelter Operations $398 $461 $505 $577 $580 Rental Assistance $53 $21 $23 $39 $122 Prevention, Diversion, Anti-Eviction & Aftercare $79 $82 $82 $198 $259

Domestic Violence, Youth & Emergency Shelters $85 $86 $88 $95 $108

Dept. of Homeless Administration & Support $142 $159 $151 $160 $222

Total Citywide Homeless Spending $1,036 $1,120 $1,175 $1,425 $1,715

Actuals Budget

New Capital Funding for NYCHA

• NYCHA is New York City’s single largest source of affordable housing, but theAuthority faces $17 billion in unmet capital needs.

• Directing Battery Park City Authority funds to NYCHA would provide $400 million over the next ten years.

• This proposal requires 3 votes - the Governor, the Comptroller and the Mayor.



($ in millions, negative numbers increase the gap) FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020City Stated Gap $0 $0 ($2,279) ($2,937) ($2,741)

Tax Revenues Property Tax $74 $79 $60 $213 Personal Income Tax $197 $218 $147 ($58)Business Taxes $3 ($44) ($77) ($58)Sales Tax $70 $88 $100 $88 Real-Estate-Related Taxes $101 ($12) ($183) ($136)

Total Tax Revenues $445 $329 $47 $49 Camera Fines $19 $54 $30 $27 $27 Taxi Medallion SalesTotal Revenues $475 $499 $252 ($183) ($291)

Expenditures Overtime ($136) ($200) ($200) ($200)DOE Medicaid Reimbursement ($80) ($80) ($80) ($80)Universal Pre-Kindergarten Funding $0 ($21) ($21) ($21)Public Assistance $0 ($20) ($20) ($20)Adult Shelters $0 ($100) ($100) ($100)Health + Hospitals $0 ($338) ($344) ($368)Variable Interest Rate Savings $40 $88 $70 $52 $52 General Reserve $300 $0 $0 $0 $0

Total Expenditures $124 ($699) ($689) ($713) ($737)

Total (Risks)/Offsets $599 ($200) ($437) ($896) ($1,028)

Comptroller’s Office Analysis of Risks and Offsets

$0$42$37$44

$333$456

$0 $0 ($107) ($257) ($367)

($221)($80)($21)($20)

($100)($345)

$0$42$37$44

$333$456

$0 $0 ($107) ($257) ($367)

($221)($80)($21)($20)

($100)($345)

Restated (Gap)/Surplus $599 ($200) ($2,716) ($3,833) ($3,769)


City’s Cushion Compared to Target Range(Percent of Adjusted Expenditures)

8.2%

7.2%

2.0%

3.6% 4.3%

7.6%

11.0%

15.5%

17.4%

13.7%

10.5%9.6%

6.7% 6.4%6.8%

10.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

$1.2 billion$3.6 billion

Cushion Target Range


The Economy - comptroller.nyc.gov · Decline in the Consensus Forecast for 2016 Real GDP: 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5%: 2.3%: 2.4%. 2.5 ... Gap to be Closed - January 2016 ... Authority faces

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