7/18/2019 The economist20120714 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-economist20120714 1/25 经济学人中文网The American economy 美国经济Comeback kid 东山再起America’s economy is once again reinventing itself 美国经济要再次脱胎换骨Jul 14th 2012 | from the print edition ALMOST the only thing on which Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, agree is that the economy is in a bad way. Unemployment is stuck above 8% and growth probably slipped below an annualised 2% in the first half of this year. Ahead lie the threats of a euro break-up, a slowdown in China and the ―fiscal cliff‖, a withering year -end combination of tax increases and spending cuts. Mr Obama and Mr Romney disagree only on what would make things worse: re-electing a left-wing president who has regulated to death a private sector he neither likes nor understands; or swapping him for a rapacious private-equity man bent on enriching the very people who caused the mess. 美国经济很糟糕,或许这是奥巴马和罗姆尼(美国共和党总统候选人)唯一能达成共识的地方 了。比如,徘徊在 8%之上的失业率居高不下,估计连今年上半年的经济也保不住 2%的年化 增长率。摆在美国面前的除了欧元区解体的威胁与中国经济增速放缓,还有国内的 ―财政之窘 【注 1】‖——年末增加税收与削减开支的共同作用将可能导致经济萎缩。而到底什么会让经济 变得更糟,这是唯一一个让他们吵得不可开交的话题:是让左倾总统奥巴马连任还是换上罗姆 尼执掌?前者不喜欢也不理解私营部门并限制其发展,后者作为贪婪的私营部门的代表,致力 于为极少数导致此次危机的人谋福利。 America‘s economy is cer tainly in a tender state. But the pessimism of the presidential slanging-match misses something vital. Led by its inventive private sector, the economy is remaking itself (see article). Old weaknesses are being remedied and new strengths discovered, with an agility that has much to teach stagnant Europe and dirigiste Asia.
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America’s economy is once again reinventing itself 美国经济要再次脱胎换骨 Jul 14th 2012 | from the print edition
ALMOST the only thing on which Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, his Republican
challenger, agree is that the economy is in a bad way. Unemployment is stuck above 8% andgrowth probably slipped below an annualised 2% in the first half of this year. Ahead lie thethreats of a euro break-up, a slowdown in China and the ―fiscal cliff‖, a withering year -endcombination of tax increases and spending cuts. Mr Obama and Mr Romney disagree onlyon what would make things worse: re-electing a left-wing president who has regulated todeath a private sector he neither likes nor understands; or swapping him for a rapaciousprivate-equity man bent on enriching the very people who caused the mess.
America‘s economy is cer tainly in a tender state. But the pessimism of the presidentialslanging-match misses something vital. Led by its inventive private sector, the economy isremaking itself (see article). Old weaknesses are being remedied and new strengthsdiscovered, with an agility that has much to teach stagnant Europe and dirigiste Asia.
Amer ica‘s sluggishness stems above all from pre-crisis excesses and the misshapeneconomy they created. Until 2008 growth relied too heavily on consumer spending andhouse-buying, both of them financed by foreign savings channelled through anundercapitalised financial system. Household debt, already nearly 100% of income in 2000,reached 133% in 2007. Recoveries from debt-driven busts always take years, as householdsand banks repair their balance-sheets.
谈到美国经济停滞的原因,这完全是由危机前的无度透支和由之造成的畸形经济做下的孽。
2008年之前美国经济过度依赖消费和房地产市场,其资金均源于国外储蓄,而这些储蓄流经
的金融系统本身就资本不足。家庭负债在 2000年已接近收入的 100%,2007年则增至
133%。而面对债务破产,银行和家庭要平衡各自的资产负债表,这一过程往往要花费数年时间。
Nonetheless, in the past three years that repair has proceeded fast. America‘s houses arenow among the world‘s most undervalued: 19% below fair value, according to our house-price index. And because the Treasury and other regulators, unlike their euro-zonecounterparts, chose to confront the rot in their financial system quickly, American banks havehad to write off debts and raise equity faster than their peers. (Citigroup alone has flushedthrough some $143 billion of loan losses; no euro-zone bank has set aside more than $30billion.) American capital ratios are among the world‘s highest. And consumers have cut back,too: debts are now 114% of income.
New strengths have also been found. One is a more dynamic export sector. The weakerdollar helps explain why the trade deficit has shrunk from 6% of GDP in 2006 to about 4%today. But other, more permanent, shifts—especially the growth of a consuming class inemerging markets—augur well. On the campaign trail, both parties attack China as acurrency-fiddling, rule-breaking supplier of cheap imports (see Lexington). But a richer China
has become the third-largest market for America‘s exports, up 53% since 2007.
经济学人中文网 And American exporters are changing. Some of the products—Boeing jets, Microsoftsoftware and Hollywood films—are familiar. But there is a boom, too, in high-value services(architecture, engineering and finance) and a growing ―app economy‖, nurtured by Facebook,
Apple and Google, which employs more than 300,000 people; its games, virtual merchandiseand so on sell effortlessly across borders. Constrained by weakness at home and in Europe,even small companies are seeking a toehold in emerging markets. American manufacturers
are recapturing some markets once lost to imports, and pioneering new processes such as3D printing.
并且美国的出口目录也正在发生变化,波音客机,微软软件和好莱坞电影等产品固然耳熟能
详,但高附加值服务(建筑、工程和金融)的出口额也在迅速增长, ―应用程序经济‖亦是如
此,该―经济‖由脸谱、苹果公司和谷歌培育而成,从业人员超过 30万。他们开发出来的游戏
和虚拟商品等等在海外市场热销。受本国和欧洲市场颓势的影响,甚至一些小企业都想在新兴
市场上寻找落足点。美国的制造商正在夺回被进口产品侵占的市场,并引领 3D打印等新的制
造工艺。
Meanwhile, what was once an Achilles heel is becoming a competitive advantage. Americahas paid dearly for its addiction to imported oil. Whenever West Texas Intermediate climbs
above $100 per barrel (as it did in 2008, last year and again this year), growth suffers. Buthigh prices have had an effect, restraining demand and stimulating supply. Net imports of oilthis year are on track to be the lowest since 1995, and America should eventually become anet exporter of gas.
同时,美国的传统弱势产业也转变为相对优势产业。对进口石油的依赖性让美国付出了很大代
价。只要西德克萨斯中质油每桶价格超过 100美元(2008年就是这种情况,去年和今年也一
样),美国的经济增长就会受到制约。不过较高的价格也在起积极作用,它可以减少需求并刺
激供给。今年美国的石油净进口量将降至 1995年以来的最低水平,假以时日,美国将成为天
然气的净出口国。
Many countries have shale gas, but, as it did with the internet revolution, America leads in
exploiting it (see our special report this week). Federal money helped finance development ofthe ―fracking‖【注 2】 technology that makes shale gas accessible, just as it paid for the
internet‘s precursors. However its use was commercialised by a Texas wildcatter【注 3】called George Mitchell, the sort of risk-taker America has in abundance. In Europe shale gashas been locked in by green rules and limited property rights. In America shale has alreadylowered consumers‘ energy bills and, by displacing coal, carbon emissions. In future, it willgive a spur to the domestic manufacture of anything needing large amounts of energy.
很多国家都蕴藏有页岩气资源,不过同因特网革命一样,美国也带头开采页岩气(见本期特别
报道)。联邦政府为开采页岩气的―水力压裂‖技术提供资金支持,就 像当年资助开发因特网的
先驱一样。不过页岩气的商业化是通过德克萨斯州一个名叫 George Mitchell的―野猫‖钻井者
Amer ica‘s work-out is not finished. Even when the results are more visible, it will leave manyproblems unsolved. Because the companies leading the process are so productive, they payhigh wages but do not employ many people. They may thus do little to reduce unemployment,while aggravating inequality. Yet this is still a more balanced and sustainable basis forgrowth than what America had before—and a far better platform for prosperity thanunreformed, elderly Europe.
What should the next president do to generate muscle in this new economy? First, do noharm. Not driving the economy over the fiscal cliff would be a start: instead, settle on acredible long-term deficit plan that includes both tax rises and cuts to entitlementprogrammes. There are other madnesses brewing. Some Democrats want to restrict exportsof natural gas to hold down the price for domestic consumers—a brilliant strategy todiscourage domestic investment and production. A braver Mr Obama would expediteapproval of gas exports. For his part, Mr Romney should back off his promise to brand Chinaa currency manipulator, an invitation to a trade war.
Second, the next president should fix America‘s ramshackle public services. Even the mostproductive start-ups cannot help an economy held back by dilapidated roads, the world‘smost expensive health system, underachieving union-dominated schools and a Byzantineimmigration system that deprives companies of the world‘s best talent. Focus on those things,Mr Obama and Mr Romney, and you will be surprised what America‘s private sector can do
for itself.
其次,下任总统应该改善行将瓦解的公共服务。公路破旧不堪,医疗费用世界排名第一,公立
学校教学质量不佳,还有拜占庭式的移民制度将世界上最优秀的人才当在国外,使之无法为美
国公司效力。受这些条件的制约,即便效率再高的新兴公司也不能在经济恢复中大显身手。奥
巴马总统、罗姆尼先生,请在公共服务上多花点心思吧,私营部门自会给你们带来惊喜。
注释:
【注 1】 ‖Fiscal cliff‖ is the popular shorthand term used to describe the conundrum that the U.S.government will face at the end of 2012. U.S. lawmakers have a choice: they can either letcurrent policy go into effect at the beginning of 2013 – which features a number of taxincreases and spending cuts that are expected to weigh heavily on growth and possibly drive
the economy back into a recession – or cancel some or all of the scheduled tax increasesand spending cuts, which would add to the deficit and increase the odds that the UnitedStates could face a crisis similar to that which is occurring in Europe.---取自网页
More important, of course, will be what doesn‘t meet the eye. Skolkovo will be a s pecial
economic zone, a bit like Shenzhen in China. Companies based there will receive whacking
great tax breaks. They will also get special treatment when it comes to visas and imports.
当然,更重要的是那些表面上看不出来的东西。斯科尔科沃将发展为一个经济特区,和中国深
圳有点类似。当地的公司将会享受高额的税务优惠。在签证和进口方面,他们会享受特别待
遇。
The aim is for Skolkovo to become the basis for a vast ecosystem that spans all of Russia
and brings together researchers, entrepreneurs and investors in five ―clusters‖: IT, of course,
but also biomedical, energy-efficiency, space and nuclear technologies, all of which have
deep roots in Russia. This new ecosystem, its champions hope, will help Russia modernise.
斯科尔科沃的发展目标是形成一个贯穿俄罗斯的巨型城市生态系统,汇聚五大集群的研究者、
企业家和投资者:毋庸置疑包括了 IT行业,也还包括了生物医学、能源效能、空间技术和核
技术,这些行业在俄罗斯根深蒂固,由来已久。这样的一个新型城市生态系统,带着其拥护者
的希望,将帮助俄罗斯实现现代化。
In other countries, such ambitious government-led schemes have usually flopped.
Nonetheless, Skolkovo‘s backers remain optimistic. Dmitry Medvedev, then Russia‘s
president, gave the green light in 2010. Since then the government has earmarked $3 billion
over four years for the project, and will spend billions more indirectly, for instance via tax
breaks.
在其他国家里,诸如此类政府主导的野心勃勃的计划通常只是昙花一现。即便如此,斯科尔科
沃的支持者们仍怀乐观心态。2010年,时任俄罗斯总统的德米特里·梅德韦杰夫开绿灯批准了
这个项目。从那以后的四年中,俄罗斯当局政府为该项目专项拨款达 30亿美元,同时还将直
接通过诸如税额减免等方法来投入数百万美元。
The planning of the construction is going well. Half a dozen architecture firms are designingand developing the city‘s districts. Nobody seriously doubts that Skolkovo will rise in one
form or another —although it will probably take longer than planned. Conor Lenihan, a former
Irish innovation minister who is in charge of Skolkovo‘s corporate partnerships, praises the
Russian government‘s decisiveness. ―In a typical European democracy,‖ he says, ―it would
The university, too, is no longer just a PowerPoint presentation. For an undisclosed sum, the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has agreed to set up the Skolkovo Institute of
Science and Technology, or SkTech. In August the first 21 Russian students will start taking
courses (they will spend their first year studying abroad).
斯科尔科沃大学也将不仅仅是一所只出现在课堂幻灯片上展示的大学了。据不完全披露,麻省
理工学院已同意成立斯科尔科沃科技学院,或斯科尔科沃技术学院。首批的 21位俄罗斯学员
将于 8月开始学习课程(第一年他们将出国留学)。
Skolkovo has already lured some big names. Attracted by the perks and anxious not to upset
the Russian government, their largest customer in the country, some 20 companies have
signed up, including Cisco, IBM and SAP. Each of them will open a sizeable R&D laboratory
and co-operate with SkTech.
斯科尔科沃其实已钓到了一些大鱼。受到政府对斯科尔科沃特别待遇的吸引,包括思科、
IBM、SAP等约 20家公司带着唯恐得罪他们在俄罗斯最大客户(俄罗斯政府)的焦虑,在斯
科尔科沃注册落户了。他们均与斯科尔科沃技术学院合作,开设了一个颇大的研发实验室。
It will be much harder, however, to create the rest of the ecosystem. Silicon Valley has a
critical mass of entrepreneurs and venture capitalists and, more importantly, a culture of
turning whizzy ideas into profitable businesses. Such a culture takes decades to evolve. The
Skolkovo Foundation, which runs the project, wants to jump-start it with cash—some $1
billion over five years. ―We want to fill the institutional void and take some of the risk,‖
explains Alexander Lupachev, the organisation‘s chief investment officer.
然而,要营造斯科尔科沃城市生态系统的余下部分将会非常困难。硅谷拥有大量的企业家和风
险投资家,更重要的在于一种文化,一种把技术创新的点子转为可赚钱 的生意的文化。这种
文化需要数十年的演变。运行该项目的斯科尔科沃基金会有意通过砸钱助跑——五年内投入约
10亿美元。―我们要填补体制上的空缺,冒些许 风险,‖斯科尔科沃基金会首席投资官
Alexander Lupachev解释道。
The aim is to build a long pipeline of start-ups to reside in Skolkovo. The SkolkovoFoundation will then provide them with some initial cash and hope that venture capitalists
invest in them. Firms first apply for ―resident status‖ and are reviewed by some of the
hundreds of experts who work with the Skolkovo Foundation. If the firms pass muster, they
are eligible for the city‘s tax and other preferences and can apply for grants, usually
$150,000. If they want more money, they have to find a matching investment from a venture
Not everyone is reassured. Skolkovo is Mr Medvedev‘s baby. Will it thrive now that he has
been demoted to prime minister, or will it end up as just another office park? Vladimir Putin,the current president, seems supportive. His government recently decided to host the summit
of the G8 in 2014, when Russia holds the group‘s presidency, at Skolkovo. Victor Vekselberg,
the president of the Skolkovo Foundation, who made his billions as an oil oligarch, says:
―This is no longer Medvedev‘s or Putin‘s project, this is Russia‘s project.‖ He adds: ―If the
country really wants to change it needs something like Skolkovo.‖ Others retort that for
Skolkovo to work, Russia would have to change so much that it would no longer be
necessary.
并不是人人都对这个项目肯定的。斯科尔科沃项目是梅德韦杰夫的作品。既梅德韦杰夫降任为
俄罗斯总理后它会继续茁壮成长或者最终以作为另一个办公园夭折呢? 俄罗斯现任总统弗拉
基米尔·普京看起来是支持这个项目的。俄罗斯政府最近决定,当俄罗斯获得 G8轮值主席后,
将于 2014年在斯科尔科沃举行 G8峰会。斯 科尔科沃基金会现任主席 Victor Vekselberg说:
THE conventional arms have run out. Central banks in America and Britain have long sincepushed interest rates to close to zero. On July 5th the European Central Bank (ECB) joinedthem, slashing its rate on deposits to 0% and its main policy rate below 1%. A different sortof arsenal is now being deployed. Unconventional monetary policy covers everything fromnegative interest rates—now on offer in Denmark—to a change in inflation targets, but―quantitative easing‖ (QE), the creation of money to buy assets, has proved to be the mostpopular weapon of this crisis.
Its use is being stepped up. On July 5th the Bank of England (BoE) announced a £50 billion($78 billion) increase in the size of its asset-purchase programme, to £375 billion in total.Speculation is growing that the Federal Reserve may launch another round of QE, its third,perhaps as soon as next month. There is pressure on the ECB to follow suit. With QEincreasingly pivotal to monetary policy, how much bang for the buck③(or yen or euro) doesit deliver?
使用量化宽松的力度正在加强。7月 5日,英格兰银行宣布将其资产购买计划规模增加 500亿
英镑(约合 780亿美元),总规模至 3750亿英镑。对美联储可 能最快于下月推出新一轮量化
宽松(第三轮)的猜测也在增加。欧洲央行也面临着采取同样举措的压力。量化宽松在货币政
策中变得日益重要,那么它能产生多大的 效果呢?
First, some definitions. In normal times central banks move short-term interest rates via―open-market operations‖: by buying or selling securities, they supply or subtract reservesfrom the banking system. The quantity of reserves that banks hold is a secondaryconsideration; the real target is the interest rate. A lower rate, for example, encouragesspending and investment, boosting the economy.
In times of severe economic distress, however, rates may fall to zero. Cue QE. When the
Bank of Japan (BoJ) pioneered QE in 2001, its goal was to buy enough securities to create adesired quantity of reserves (hence, ―quantitative easing‖). Its actions, it hoped, would raiseasset prices and end deflation.
然而,在经济处于严重困境的时期,利率可能会降至零水平。这就意味着需要采取量化宽松
(来刺激经济了)。日本央行于 2001年率先推出量化宽松,其目的是 购买足够的证券,使准
备金的数量增至理想水平(因而叫做―量化宽松‖)。日本央行希望这些举措能够提高资产价
格,消除通货紧缩。
QE has now come to refer to several flavours of asset-purchase programme. One version isoften called ―credit easing‖. The aim is to support the economy by boosting liquidity andreducing interest rates when credit channels are clogged. The Fed‘s purchases of mortgage-
backed securities, demand for which weakened sharply during the financial crisis, fall intothis category.
量化宽松现在是指几种不同种类的资产购买计划。其中一种通常叫做 ―信贷宽松‖。其目的是在
信贷渠道受阻时,通过增加流动性和降低利率来支撑经济发展。美联储购买的按揭证券(金融
危机期间需求量骤减)就属于这种。
Another type of asset purchase aims to boost the economy without creating new money. TheFed‘s ongoing ―Operation Twist‖ is an example: the Fed sells short-term debt and uses theproceeds to buy long-term debt. Giving investors cash for long-term debt should promptthem to invest more money in other assets.另一种资产购买是在不增印新的货币的情况下达到促进经济增长的目的。美联储正在进行的
―扭转操作‖就是一个例子:即卖出短期国债,同时用相应的收入买入长期国债。此举使长期国
债持有者有了更多的资金,这应该会促使他们将其投入到其它资产中去。
QE proper is a third type. The most straightforward way this is meant to help the economy is
经济学人中文网 through ―portfolio rebalancing‖. The investors who sell securities to the central bank thentake the proceeds and buy other assets, raising their prices. Lower bond yields encourageborrowing; higher equity prices raise consumption; both help investment and boost demand.To the extent that④investors add foreign assets, portfolio rebalancing also weakens thedomestic currency, fuelling exports.
If a central bank is expected to hold on to the government debt it buys, then QE can alsosupport the economy by cutting government-borrowing costs and reducing the future burdenof taxation. It can work by changing expectations, too. A promise to keep short-term interestrates low for a long time may be more credible if it is accompanied by QE, since the centralbank is exposing itself through its holdings to the risk of a rise in interest rates.
That‘s the theory, at any rate. Efforts to divine the actual results of these interventions arenecessarily messy. Unconventional monetary tools were only rarely used before the crisis,which means the sample size of case studies is small. And events stubbornly refuse topause in the immediate wake of new QE, making it hard for economists to isolate its impact.
经济学人中文网 Still, empirical studies generally turn up positive results from central-bank asset purchases.They appear to move interest rates, for example. The BoJ‘s foray into QE in 2001 quickly cutshort-term rates to zero and is generally thought to have had a small but meaningfuldownward impact on medium- and long-run interest rates. Early reviews of crisis-era assetpurchases are likewise modestly positive. A recent survey of QE research findings by theFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco indicated that $600 billion of asset purchases could
be expected to reduce long-term rates by 15-20 basis points, equivalent to a 75-basis-pointcut in the federal-funds rate.
然而,实证研究普遍表明,央行的资产购买会产生积极的结果。例如,它们似乎可以调整利
率。2001年,日本央行尝试推出量化宽松,这一举措很快使短期利率 降至零水平。而且外界
普遍认为,其对于降低中长期利率也有着虽小但富有意义的影响。对危机时代资产购买早期的
回顾也表明这一举措的结果还是比较积极的。旧 金山联邦储备银行最近出炉的一项关于量化
宽松研究结果的调查显示,6000亿美元的资产购买预计可以将长期基准利率降低 15到 20个
基点,相当于联邦基金 利率降低 75个百分点。
Causation is harder to discern for equity prices. Some of the expected impact may be pricedin before QE is announced, as happened when Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, hinted at
QE2 in the summer of 2010. Yet QE programmes in Japan, Britain, and America appear tohave been associated with rising equity prices.
通过因果关系来识别股票价格的变化变得更加困难。一些预期的影响可能在量化宽松宣布之前
就已经反映在价格中了,正如美联储主席本•伯南克 2010年夏天暗示将推出第二轮量化宽松时
发生的那样。但是日本、英国和美国的量化宽松计划似乎都导致了股票价格的上涨。
The trillion-dollar question⑤ is whether QE boosts the broader economy (see chart onprevious page). Early assessments answer with a cautious ―yes‖. Research published by theFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco indicates that the Fed‘s asset purchases haveprobably taken 1.5 percentage points off America‘s unemployment rate. Real output by late2012 may be 3% higher than it would have been in the absence of QE1 and QE2, and
payroll employment could be as much as 3m workers higher than it would otherwise havebeen. Research by some BoE economists on the impact of its first £200 billion in QEpurchases suggests that it may have raised Britain‘s real GDP by as much as 2% andinflation by 1.5%, an impact equivalent to a three-percentage-point cut in the main interestrate. Although a different BoE study found a more modest impact, the data so far suggestthat QE helps the real economy.
Yet in the minds of many critics, even such gains do not justify the risks, great and small, oflarge-scale asset purchases. Three dangers stand out. The first threat is to the function of
经济学人中文网 some financial markets. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) argued in its recentannual report that huge growth in bank reserves was driving overnight-lending rates to zero,causing the market for unsecured overnight lending to atrophy. Since the unsecuredovernight rate has been the principal policy lever for central banks, this development could,the BIS warns, make it hard for them to rein in inflation in the future.
The risk can be mitigated, however. In late 2008 the Fed began paying interest on thereserves held by banks over and above the minimum required. Raising the rate of interestpaid on excess reserves can make new bank loans less attractive, thus tempering overallcredit creation. This tool represents a means to check inflation despite the breakdown inunsecured markets.
A second risk from QE is of distortions in the market for government debt. The borrowingcosts of some governments are extraordinarily low—an auction of ten-year Treasuries onJuly 11th produced record-low yields. A flight to safety is a contributing factor, but it seemsthat markets either anticipate decades of abysmal economic growth, or the risk premium forholding long-dated bonds is unsustainably low, thanks in part to central-bank purchases. Anyadjustment may be sudden and have unpredictable consequences.
A related concern is that QE is reducing market pressure on sovereigns that would otherwiseface higher interest rates and a corresponding need to deal responsibly with their publicfinances. This is not a concern to take lightly. A central bank can lose control over inflation ifthe market has lost confidence in the sovereign and the bank is forced into buyinggovernment debt. On the other hand, a central bank that neglected its duties to play fiscalwatchdog could risk its independence.
与此相关的一个担忧是,量化宽松正在减轻施加于各国政府身上的市场压力。如果没有量化宽
松,各国政府将面对利率升高的状况,相应地,各国政府需要负责任地 处理它们的公共财
政。(现在有了量化宽松,政府处理公共财政的压力就减轻了。)这一担忧不容小视。因为如
果市场对政府丧失信心,央行被迫买入政府债券,那 么央行可能会无法控制通胀。另一方
面,如果央行没有履行作为财政监管者的职责,那么其独立性将会面临风险。
Clearly, there are risks to unconventional policy (abroad as well as at home, where emergingmarkets have long complained that expansionary rich-world policy has caused waves ofcapital inflows). But the critical judgment is whether uncertain risks of uncertain magnitude
经济学人中文网 outweigh the benefits of doing more. Cumulative output gaps across the rich world now runinto the trillions of dollars. Tens of millions of people are unemployed, and many have beenso for several years. The bar to not doing QE should be high.
The gains from asset purchases would seem to be clearest and largest in the euro area. Although the ECB is prohibited by law from providing direct fiscal aid to membergovernments, it may buy debt in the market to ensure the proper conduct of monetary policy.It has on occasion bought the debt of troubled peripheral sovereigns.
资产购买带来的利益似乎在欧元区最为明显也最为庞大。虽然法律禁止欧洲央行对成员国政府
直接提供财政救助,但是其可以在市场上买入国债以确保对货币政策的适度调控。欧洲央行已
经几次买入了受困外围国家的国债。
An ECB programme of QE would probably aim to spread purchases across all membergovernments, but could nonetheless benefit troubled governments. If QE successfullyreduced government-borrowing costs, the pressure for ever-stricter austerity measureswould ease marginally. Portfolio rebalancing could bring down private borrowing costs.Purchases of foreign assets might weaken the euro, helping exports. And the possibility of aswifter end to the recession could encourage euro-zone countries to push ahead withstructural and institutional reforms.
欧洲央行量化宽松计划的目的也许是购买所有成员国政府的国债,但是受益的可能只是受困政
府。如果量化宽松成功降低了政府的借贷成本,那么空前严苛的紧缩措 施将会有所放松。投
资组合的再平衡可能会降低私人借贷成本。购买国外资产可能会使欧元走软,刺激出口。而且
加快结束经济衰退的局面可以鼓励欧元区国家推动 结构和机构改革。
For economies that have already used QE, the problem is one of diminishing returns. TheFed‘s first round of asset purchases between late 2008 and 2010 reduced corporate-borrowing rates by nearly a percentage point; its QE2 programme of $600 billion in Treasurypurchases, rolled out in late 2010, succeeded in bringing down corporate rates by 13 basispoints. In Britain, banks still face high borrowing costs and remain nervous about lendingmore to small and medium-sized enterprises: a new credit-easing programme about to beintroduced by the BoE and the Treasury is long overdue.
For additional QE to prove effective in both Britain and America, central banks must changetheir approach to inflation. Temporary, higher-than-normal inflation can facilitate wage andprice adjustments and help erode the real value of household debts. Most importantly, whennominal interest rates can go no lower, a higher inflation rate corresponds directly to a lower,and more stimulating, real interest rate.
Both the BoE and the Fed target an inflation rate of 2%. Even a modestly effective newround of QE should quickly lift inflation expectations back to target. But if markets thinkabove-target inflation will prompt a reversal of the policy, then new QE will have very littleimpact.
英格兰银行和美联储都将通胀目标设定为 2%。新一轮的通胀哪怕有一点点的效果也足以使通
胀预期回升至 2%。但是如果市场认为高于目标的通胀会导致政策适得其反,那么新一轮量化
宽松的效果将微乎其微。
The Japanese experience of QE illustrates the problem. In 2006, with inflation barely abovezero, the BoJ brought QE to an end, rapidly reducing the monetary base and then raising itsbenchmark interest rate. Real interest rates never wandered far into negative territory.
Although the BoE in particular has been prepared to tolerate inflation above its formal target,neither it nor the Fed has moved away from a goal of 2% inflation.
日本量化宽松的经验就说明了这个问题。2006年,通胀刚刚超过零水平的时候,日本央行就
结束了量化宽松,迅速减少了货币基础,随后又上调了基准利率。实 际利率再没大幅偏离到
负值区域。虽然英格兰银行尤其能够容忍通胀高于正式宣布的目标,但是它和美联储都没有上
调 2%的通胀目标。
One answer may be a temporarily higher inflation target. Charles Evans, the president of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has proposed a plan in which the Fed would announce itsintention to accommodate inflation of up to 3% a year as long as the unemployment rateremained above 7%. The plan would allow the Fed to gin up a bit more inflation now withoutcommitting it to a permanent rise in the target rate, something the inflation-averse centralbank is loth to consider.
或许一个解决办法是暂时调高通胀目标。芝加哥联邦储蓄银行主席查尔斯 •埃文斯提出了一个
计划,在该计划中,他指出只要失业率仍然高于 7%,美联储就应该宣 布将年通胀率上调至
3%。该计划允许美联储眼下将通胀目标设定的高一些,而非长期将通胀率保持在高位。但是
这一想法是对通胀有抵触情绪的央行所不愿意考虑 的。
Relaxing inflation targets is hard for central bankers with intellectual roots in the
stagflationary 1970s. In Mr Bernanke‘s view, central bankers‘ victory over the runawayinflation of that decade is a momentous achievement. But that stability is now beingpurchased at a very dear price.
IN THE days when Norsemen pillaged their way around the monasteries and villages ofEurope, Norwegian shipwrights were at the forefront of naval architecture. They still are.Norway is an important centre of marine innovation and several foreign companies haveoperations there, too. One such is the marine division of Rolls-Royce, a British firm, which iscollaborating with Farstad, a shipping company based in Alesund, and STX OSV, ashipbuilder. The result of their efforts is Far Solitaire (pictured above), the first of a new classof vessels which bristle with novel technology that promises to make shipping safer, cleanerand cheaper.
Far Solitaire has been designed as a platform-supply ship for the North Sea‘s oil and gasindustry. This means she is not a large vessel. She is 91 metres long (one-third of the lengthof a typical container ship), has a deadweight of 5,700 tonnes and cost about $70m. Butsome of the innovations she uses should be applicable to vessels of all sizes.
At the moment she is being fitted out by STX OSV at its Langsten shipyard on Tomrefjord. InOctober she will be delivered to Farstad, who will use her to supply rigs in the region‘snotoriously heavy seas. Crucially, she has to be able to hold her position while transferring
经济学人中文网 thrusters already used on some vessels: propellers on pods that can be rotated to push theship in different directions, making a rudder unnecessary. But the Rolls-Royce Azipull hasthe propeller at the front of the pod rather than the back. That means the propeller operatesin a smoother flow of water, which improves efficiency and assists steering. This design hasbeen made possible using computational fluid dynamics to perfect the shapes of the bladesand pods.
其中最重要的一对是安装在船尾的 Azipull螺旋桨,它们与一些轮船已经在使用的方位推进器
有点相似:分离舱上可旋转的螺旋桨能够推动船驶向不同的方向,这样就不必再使用船舵。
(主要推进器是位于船尾的一对 Azipull螺旋桨,它们与部分轮船使用的全方位推进器相似:
亦即螺旋浆安裝於可以旋转的分离舱后方,不需船舵就能将船只推往不同的方向。 ----
shadowing的简练译法)但是劳斯莱斯公司将 Azipull螺旋桨装在了分离舱的前端而非尾部,
这意味着螺旋桨能在更平稳的水流中工作,从而提高效率,方便轮船的行驶。设计师通过计算
流体力学完善舵叶与分离舱的形状,使得这种设计成为可能。
Further control is provided by two bow thrusters. These are propellers mounted in transversetunnels in the hull, to help position the craft and hold her stable while alongside a rig. Andthere is also an azimuth thruster that can be swung down from the forward part of the hull if
an extra push is required.
其他操控设备还有船首侧推装置,它是安装在船体横向通道中的两个推进器,用来帮助轮船进
行定位并在船上装载钻探时保持船体平稳。另外在需要额外推力时还有方位推进器可从船体前
方摆下。
All of these propulsion systems are handled by moving one of the joysticks next to thecaptain‘s chair in a bridge with a 360° view that looks more suitable for the starshipEnterprise than what is, after all, a souped-up freighter. The consequences of moving the
joystick can, fortunately, be practised on shore without risk to ship or platform, courtesy of anew 360° bridge simulator in Rolls-Royce‘s marine-training centre in Alesund. The captaincan also call on the assistance of an electronic positioning system that uses a combination of
data from satellites, gyrocompasses, and wind and motion sensors to operate the thrustersautomatically.
船长只要移动驾驶室座椅边的操纵杆就能控制这些推进装置,这个拥有 360°全方位视角的驾
驶室看起来更适合进取号星舰,而不仅仅是普通的货船,因为后者只不过是加了马力的船舶而
已。幸好移动操控杆的效果能在阿雷松德船舶训练中心进行试验,劳斯莱斯公司在这里建有一
个 360°全方位视角的模拟驾驶室,有了岸上的训练就能避免给轮船和钻井平台带来危险。另
外,船长还能从电子定位系统中获取帮助,该系统能结合卫星、回转罗盘、风能和运动传感器
三者的数据自动操控推进器。
Solid freight is carried on a deck that has an area of 1,020 square metres. Liquids,meanwhile, are stored below deck in tanks, each of which is fitted with its own pumping
system, in order to avoid the risk of mixing substances best kept separate.
固体货物会被安置在一个面积达 1020平方米的甲板上,而液体货物则会被存储在甲板下的液
货舱中,每种液体对应相应的抽运系统以避免不宜混合放置的液体搅拌在一起。
Borge Nakken, who is in charge of technology and development at Farstad, expects FarSolitaire to use about 40% less fuel than a conventional vessel of the same size that iscarrying out similar tasks. This is a remarkable saving, and although she is a small, specialistvessel, many of her features, particularly the new bow and the more efficient system of
Stricter regulations on ships‘ emissions are on their way—including, in particular, newcontrols for vessels in the North Sea and the Baltic, and off the coast of North America. Thatmeans shipowners who wish to ply these waters will have to stop using bunker fuel (thecheap stuff left over once petrol, diesel and aviation fuel have been distilled from crude oil) topower their vessels because burning it produces too much sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxidesand soot. That gives extra impetus for technology of the sort being tested in Far Solitaire.
And this time no villages will have to be pillaged to pay for it.
Looming over both this book and its subject‘s life are two ghosts: Millie, his formidable,perpetually dissatisfied mother; and Paul Robeson, whose combination of entertainment and
political activism⑾ forged a path that Mr Belafonte would follow. But whereas Robeson‘s
activism ran headlong into early cold-war paranoia, blacklists and McCarthyism⑿, Mr
Belafonte was luckier: his career rose more or less in tandem with the American civil-rights
movement.
不论是本书还是贝拉方特的一生中,总有两朵阴霾不肯散去:一个是他的母亲米勒。这女人让
人敬畏,而且永不知满足。另一个则是保罗•罗贝孙,他将娱乐与政治 激进主义糅合,铺下前
路,好让贝拉方特遵循。然而,正是他的激进行为,让其猛然栽入早期冷战妄想与麦卡锡主义
中,并在各种黑名单上记录在案,与之相比,贝 拉方特幸运多了:其职业生涯的崛起,多多
少少与美国民权运动相连。
Martin Luther King junior sought him out in 1956, just a few months after rising to fame
during the Montgomery bus boycott⒀. King was then 26, and a preacher at the Dexter
Avenue Baptist Church in Montgomery, while Mr Belafonte was 28 and newly crowned
―America‘s Negro matinée idol‖. Mr Belafonte was sceptical of both religion and non-violence
(―I wasn‘t nonviolent by nature,‖ he explains, ―or if I was, growing up on Harlem‘s streets⒁
had knocked it out of me‖), but was won over by King‘s humility. There is an especially
touching scene from nine years later in which, following a celebrity-studded civil-rights fund-
raiser in Paris, King, then a Nobel peace-prize winner, serves food to the assembled stars as
―an exercise in humility, an act of abject gratitude to all these stars for coming out for him.‖ Ina book that is riddled with many of the usual faults of celebrity autobiography—name-
dropping, score-settling, preening and a rather ungallant treatment of his first wife and some
of his children—Mr Belafonte‘s portrayal of King stands out for its unfussy warmth and
(13)蒙哥马利巴士抵制运动(Montgomery Bus Boycott)是美国民权运动历史上的一座里程
碑。开始自 1955年年底,持续了一年左右的蒙哥马利巴士抵制运动展现了非裔美国人以及支
持民权运动的其 他美国人的反抗种族隔离与社会不平等的决心与毅力。蒙哥马利巴士抵制运
动最终促使 1956年美国最高法院作出裁决,裁定蒙哥马利市的公交种族隔离法违宪。
(14)哈莱姆区(Harlem,又译―哈林‖)是美国纽约市曼哈顿的一个社区,曾经长期是 20世
纪美国黑人文化与商业中心,也是犯罪与贫困的主要中心,目前正在经历一场社会和经济复
兴。
(15)因为自传名为―My Song‖,这里一语双关,原意为贝拉方特。
(16)在小布什任职期间,贝拉方特没少骂过他,称之为 ―全球最大恐怖分子‖。对委内瑞拉总
统乌戈•查维斯则高度称赞,并表示许多美国人支持查维斯领导的社会主义改革。
(17)breath原意为 wide extent (eg of knowledge); range,这里指他的歌不怎么流行了,60
年代后期都是 Bob•Dylan和 The Beetles的天下,这个―美国小黑‖自然没了饭碗。
(18)这里用了矛盾修辞法(oxymoron)
(19)无意义,表承接上下文。
(20)贝拉方特的政治态度详见此贴, 猛击 Harry Belafonte provides an historical insightinto the civil rights movement‘s decay http://www.ecocn.org/thread-71514-1-1.html 译者林忆纾