The Economies of the Middle The Economies of the Middle East and East and North Africa: North Africa: Near Near-term Outlook and Medium term Outlook and Medium-term Challenges term Challenges The Economies of the Middle The Economies of the Middle East and East and North Africa: North Africa: Near Near-term Outlook and Medium term Outlook and Medium-term Challenges term Challenges Morocco Tunisia Lebanon Syria Iraq I Afghanistan Morocco Jordan Egypt Algeria Libya Iraq Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia Iran Bahrain Pakistan Mauritania Qatar United Arab Emirates Oman Yemen Sudan Djibouti Oil Importers Oil Exporters Masood Ahmed Presentation at the Canon Institute for Global Studies Tokyo October 2012 Masood Ahmed Presentation at the Canon Institute for Global Studies Tokyo October 2012 Tokyo, October 2012 Tokyo, October 2012
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The Economies of the Middle The Economies of the Middle East and East and North Africa:North Africa:NearNear--term Outlook and Mediumterm Outlook and Medium--term Challengesterm Challenges
The Economies of the Middle The Economies of the Middle East and East and North Africa:North Africa:NearNear--term Outlook and Mediumterm Outlook and Medium--term Challengesterm Challenges
MoroccoTunisia Lebanon
SyriaIraq I
AfghanistanMoroccoJordan
Egypt
AlgeriaLibya
Iraq
Kuwait
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Iran
BahrainPakistan
Mauritania
QatarUnited Arab
EmiratesOman
YemenSudan
Djibouti
Oil Importers
Oil Exporters
Masood AhmedPresentation at the Canon Institute for Global Studies
Tokyo October 2012
Masood AhmedPresentation at the Canon Institute for Global Studies
Tokyo October 2012Tokyo, October 2012Tokyo, October 2012
Overview
MENAP Oil Exportersp
MENAP Oil I tMENAP Oil Importers
Middle East and North Africa, Tokyo, October 2012 2
MENAP MENAP Oil ExportersOil ExportersMENAP MENAP Oil ExportersOil ExportersppReducing vulnerability and creating privateReducing vulnerability and creating private--sector jobssector jobs
ppReducing vulnerability and creating privateReducing vulnerability and creating private--sector jobssector jobs
Accommodative fiscal and monetary policy
Large government wage bill increases
High oil prices, but sensitive to global
economic developments
Recovery in Libya
Robust GDP growthgLarge current account surpluses
Increasing fiscal vulnerability to oil priceLimited private-sector employment outlookLimited private-sector employment outlook
Gradually save more and reduce spending rigiditiesFind alternatives to public-sector hiring
Middle East and North Africa, Tokyo, October 2012 3 MENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil Exporters
Non-oil GDP growth strong, current accounts buoyant
Real GDP(A l t th)
Current Account Balances(Billi f U S d ll )
6
8
10
Non-oil GDP
Oil GDP
(Annual percentage growth) (Billions of U.S. dollars)
110
120
130
300
350
400
0
2
4
90
100
110
200
250
300
-4
-2
0
60
70
80
50
100
150
-62007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 500
2010 2011 2012 2013
GCCNon-GCC
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations.
Non GCCCrude oil price, U.S. dollars per barrel (right scale)
Middle East and North Africa, Tokyo, October 2012 4 MENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil Exporters
Higher government wage bills increase fiscal vulnerability
Government Wage Bill Growth, 2010–13 Fiscal Breakeven Prices
70
80
g ,(Percent, deflated by CPI)
Iran140
160 Change in WEO oil price, 2008-12: US$9
Fiscal Breakeven Prices(U.S. dollars per barrel)1
40
50
60 Algeria
Iraq
LibyaOmanUnited Arab
Emirates
Bahrain
100
120
n pr
ice,
201
2
WEO oil price, 2012: US$106
10
20
30
KuwaitQatar
Saudi Arabia
40
60
80
Fisc
al b
reak
eve
-10
0
0
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
FChange in fiscal breakeven price 2008 12
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations.
Change in fiscal breakeven price, 2008-12
1Yemen fiscal breakeven, 2012: US$237
Middle East and North Africa, Tokyo, October 2012 5 MENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil ExportersMENAP Oil Exporters
Fiscal and external balances sensitive to oil prices
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Shaded area shows fiscal and current account balances for an oil price up to US$28 per barrel (one standard deviation) higher or l th th f t il i f 2013 t 2017
Middle East and North Africa, Tokyo, October 2012 6
lower than the forecast oil price for 2013 to 2017.