The Dividend Initiation Decisions Of Newly Listed Companies in Hong Kong: Does Dividend Initiation Signal Firm Prosperity? BY CAI BIJIA 10050191 Major in Applied Economics An Honours Degree Project Submitted to the School of Business In Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation Requirement for the Degree of Bachelor of Business Administration (Honours) Hong Kong Baptist University April 2013 1| Page
24
Embed
The Dividend Initiation Decisions Of Newly Listed ...
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
The Dividend Initiation Decisions
Of Newly Listed Companies in Hong Kong:
Does Dividend Initiation Signal Firm Prosperity?
BY
CAI BIJIA
10050191
Major in Applied Economics
An Honours Degree Project Submitted to the School of Business
In Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation Requirement for the
Degree of Bachelor of Business Administration (Honours)
Hong Kong Baptist University
April 2013
1 | P a g e
Table of Contents
I. ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................................. 3
II. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 3
III. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................................. 4
A. Signaling Theory ........................................................................................................................................ 4
B. Dividend Initiation...................................................................................................................................... 5
IV. DATA, SAMPLE SELECTION AND PARAMETER DEFINITION......................................................... 6
A. Data Sources ............................................................................................................................................... 6
B. Sample Selection......................................................................................................................................... 7
C. Parameter Definitions ................................................................................................................................. 7
Risk – Debt/Equity ratio .............................................................................................................................. 8
Current Assets ............................................................................................................................................. 8
D. Hypothesis and Contribution ...................................................................................................................... 8
V. FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS...................................................................................................................... 9
Dividend Initiation and Firm Performance...................................................................................................... 9
Changes in Return on Assets (ROA)............................................................................................................ 9
Changes in Debt/Equity Ratio ................................................................................................................... 10
Changes in Current Assets ........................................................................................................................ 10
VI. LIMITATION OF THE RESEARCH ........................................................................................................11
Short Research Period ...................................................................................................................................11
VII. REFERENCE LIST ...................................................................................................................................12
VIII. RELEVANT DATA SOURCES ..............................................................................................................14
IX. APPENDIX.................................................................................................................................................15
2 | P a g e
I. ABSTRACT
The paper intends to answer how dividend initiations (DI) affect profitability and risk of
newly listed companies in the context of Hong Kong. The methodology adopted here is to
evaluate a firm’s performance after DI using the changes in ROA, debt/equity ratio and
current assets. Listing data and the above mentioned parameters of 153 dividend-initiating
newly listed firms were obtained from various stock websites. Contrary to the traditional
dividend signaling theory implications, the hypothesis established in this paper is that we will
be able to observe the following three phenomena: 1) a drop in profitability, 2) a rise in risk,
and 3) a decrease in cash level. As expected, I do observe profitability decline and risk
increment. However, cash level does not go down in general in the context of Hong Kong,
which is different from empirical results from other countries. The reasons of these
phenomena are carefully studied by theories and intuition. The drop in profitability is due to
the loss of profitable investment opportunities while the risk increase is due to managers’
wish to boost earnings through debt borrowing. Cash level rise in the empirical results
implies that companies are eager to expand in development stage.
II. INTRODUCTION
In the world of corporate finance, dividend can be regarded as one of the most troublesome
topics. The literature on dividend policy is massive and covers extensive aspects. Many
economists commented that DI is a milestone in a firm’s life cycle. The Nobel Prize laureate
Michael Spence argues that managers have some nonpublic information about company’s
investment opportunities and use dividends as a signaling tool to convey this message. However,
empirical studies tend not to support the same conclusion. Rather, Sharma(2001) brought
forward a hypothesis that manager’s decision to initiate dividends does not depend on confidence
in future earnings but due to past performance. In other words, companies’ decision to initiate
dividends does not signal future earnings or a drop in risk. In order to test this hypothesis, I do
the similar study in Hong Kong.
3 | P a g e
I track the dividend initiation (DI) decisions from a sample of 263 firms that went public in
Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE) during the period 2010-2012 and find that 153 of them
initiated dividends. The sample is hence the 153 firms that have initiated dividends. The main
purpose of this paper is to analyze how DI decisions affect firm performance in terms of
profitability and risk in Hong Kong. Among the variables suggested by Sharma (2001), I
carefully select several parameters that can demonstrate profitability and risk. The return on
assets (ROA) percentage shows how profitable a company's assets are in generating revenue
(Needles, B. E. (1999)) thus is a good proxy for profitability. Debt/equity ratio measures
financial risk. Lastly, current assets are examined to show how the source of dividend payout is
affected.
III. LITERATURE REVIEW
Paper of Brav, Graham, Harvey and Michaely (2005) revealed that dividends are less
preferred compared to share repurchases due to the inflexibility of dividend policy. It is not
surprising to imply that the decision to initiate dividends must have gone through deliberation.
A. Signaling Theory
Talking about signaling theory, one cannot fail to mention Miller and Modigliani (1961) who
suggested that dividends or any kind of financing have no effect on the value of the firm
provided that there is no taxes, agency costs, asymmetric information, etc. As Miller and Scholes
(1978) subsequently demonstrate, under U.S tax code, this result may survive even if there is
differential taxation of dividends and capital gains. Lintner (1956) also addresses that managers
take future earnings into consideration when establishing dividend policies. In this reasoning,
whenever dividends as in indicator of future earnings change, investors should believe that
dividends carry some insider information.
Ever since Miller and Modigliani put forward the construct, signaling model was
established and perfected by some other theories. Bhattacharya (1979), John and Williams (1985)
and Miller and Rock (1985) are three important contributors in this model development. John
and Williams (JW) (1985) identified a signaling equilibrium with taxable dividends. In
equilibrium, insiders in firms with truly more valuable future cash inflows distribute larger
dividends and receive higher prices for their stock whenever the demand for cash by both their
4 | P a g e
firm and its current stockholders (I+L) exceeds its internal supply of cash (C). In other words,
whenever C<I+L, a firm pays dividends. We can predict that a cash-rich firm may not initiate
dividends (C>I+L) while a cash-poor firm will opt for dividends (C<I+L). Under the
assumption of asymmetric information, Miller and Rock (1985) find that a consistent signaling
equilibrium can retain the time consistency of investment policy, but leads to lower levels of
investment than the optimal level under full information.
The model implies that dividend policy signify future prospects and therefore will
enhance firm performance, including profitability, revenue and growth rate. Hence, there should
be a positive relationship between dividends and profitability, dividends and stock price reaction.
Nevertheless, empirical evidence of signaling theory has not been convincing. Research of
watts (1973) and Gonedes (1978) show a weak relation between earnings and dividend decreases.
Penman (1983) concludes that “not all information in earnings forecasts is available in dividend
announcements” and “many firms do not adjust their dividends to the level of earnings implied
by the earnings forecast and so, for these firms with a relatively low adjustment of dividends, the
dividend announcement does not predict firms' values as well as the earnings forecast.”
B. Dividend Initiation
Research of Asquith and Mullins (1983) shows that: “For this sample of firms, initiating
dividends increases shareholders' wealth. The same is true of subsequent dividend increases.
Incorporating the effects of the magnitude of dividends and investors' anticipation of subsequent
increases, the wealth effect of subsequent dividend increases appears to be as large if not larger
than the effect of initiation.”
Healy and Palepu (1988) discovered that firms initiating dividend payments experienced
rapidly increasing earnings both prior to the first dividend and for two years afterwards. They
also found some evidence consistent with the dividend signaling hypothesis in that firms
initiating dividends experienced significant earnings growth in the two years following the
initiation. Interestingly, for firms omitting dividends, earnings also increase in the years after
omission.
Moreover, Lipson, Maquieira and Megginson(1998) find clear evidence that earnings
surprise are more likely to occur in initiators rather than non-initiators in the six years
surrounding initiation. John and Lang (1991) study insider trading around initiations and show
that the announcement effect is more prominent when insider trading occurred prior to the DI.
5 | P a g e
Michaely, Thaler, and Womack (1995) find evidence of a long-term drift in stock prices
following initiations and omissions which is not explained by changes in yield or clienteles for
these stocks. Deshmukh (2003) studies a sample of firms that went public between 1990 and
1997 and finds that initiators are larger firms, with fewer growth opportunities and higher cash
flows than non-initiators. Grullon, G., R. Michaely and B. Swaminathan(2002) propose the
maturity hypothesis: it predicts that firms will pay dividends after they have reached the mature
stage of their life cycle, when they are encountered with higher cash flows, lower investment
opportunities and decreased risk. However, GMS intentionally exclude dividend initiations and
omissions from their empirical study, instead focusing on dividend changes; therefore they do
not test this prediction directly. Baker and Wurgler's(2004)(BW)"catering theory" states that
dividend-paying firms alter dividend policy in consideration of investor sentiment. BW measures
the dividend premium, i.e., the premium that investors are willing to pay for dividend paying
stocks, in different ways. They show that the premium is positively related to the aggregate
annual rate of initiation, continuation and payment of dividends by newly listed firms. Lie and Li
(2006) find support for the catering theory from a sample of firms that increased or decreased
dividends in the period of 1963 - 2000. They find that the dividend premium is positively related
to both the sign and the magnitude of changes in dividends, and that this relationship also is
manifested in the stock market reaction to the dividend changes. Kale, Kini and Payne (2012)
investigated the predictions of both JW (1985)-genre model and the ABW (2000) model.
The paper is organized as follows. I will elaborate data source, sample selection along
with parameters in the following section. Then, findings and analysis will be given based on the
empirical results. Lastly, limitations will be explained.
IV. DATA, SAMPLE SELECTION
AND PARAMETER DEFINITION
A. Data Sources
This paper analyzes the how DI decisions affect firm’s performance in terms of
profitability and risk. My sample targets at firms that were listed during 2010-2012 in Hong
Kong. I obtained the initial sample of 263 newly listed firms from Yahoo Finance, AAStocks
and TodayIR, of which 153 initiated dividends before the time being. The sample covers
6 | P a g e
basically every industry: entertainment, restaurant, telecommunication, etc. I obtain the
following data from the above-mentioned websites:
listing date and DI date;
return on assets one year before and after the DI;
debt/equity ratio one year before and after the DI;
current assets one year before and after the DI
B. Sample Selection
Table 1 summarizes the firms that went public during 2010-2012 and those that initiated
dividends and the distribution.
Table 1
The Timing of the DI Decision by Firms Conducting IPOs(20102012)
Number of Dividend‐Initiating Firms in Each Year after the IPO Year
Year No. of IPO Total DI 0 1 2 3
2‐Jul‐05 101 73 10 51 11 1
3‐Jul‐05 100 65 17 48 N/A N/A
4‐Jul‐05 64 15 15 N/A N/A N/A
Totals 265 153 42 99 11 1
% DI 27% 65% 7% 1%
Column 4-7 of the table provide the breakdown of the DI decision, which is given
relative to the IPO year. 0 means that the firm initiates dividends in the same year in which it
goes public, 1 means that the firm initiates dividend in the next calendar year (for example, a
firm goes public in 2010 but pays out dividends in 2011), and so on. Table 1 suggests that firms
are most likely to initiate dividends in the next calendar year after going public (year 1, 65%).Of
the 265 newly listed firms, 42(27%) initiated dividends in the next calendar year while 99(65%)
firms initiated in the third calendar year.
C. Parameter Definitions
Since the focus is to evaluate the effect of DI on firm’s performance in terms of
profitability and risk, I use three parameters, namely ROA, debt/equity ratio and current assets.
Profitability ROA
Profitability is usually measured with Return on assets (ROA), which is:
7 | P a g e
,
following methodology suggested by Barber and Lyons (1996). Since the focus is on how DI
affects ROA, the data of prior and after DI are obtained. After that, the change of ROA is
calculated to show the percentage change.
Risk – Debt/Equity ratio
Debt/equity ratio is a financial ratio indicating the relative proportion of shareholders'
equity and debt used to finance a company's assets, also known as leverage or risk (Peterson, P.
P., & Fabozzi, F. J. (1999)).
Current Assets
The formula of current assets is (Downes, J., & Goodman, J. E. (1998)):
Current assets have significant meaning in a firm. It provides funds that are ready to be
converted to cash in near term. But it is also easily exploited by managers and engender agency
costs.
D. Hypothesis and Contribution
The primary hypothesis in this paper is dividend initiation does not signal future earnings
of a firm. The motive of dividend initiation is the past performance of a firm, rather than the
manager’s expectation of future earnings. In essence, the research contradicts the implications of
signaling theory convey positive information about future firm performance.
8 | P a g e
A model in signaling theory developed by Miller and Rock (1985) suggests that dividend
announcement convey information to the investors regarding future earnings prospects. Grullon
(2002) subsequently alleged that dividend increase signals a decrease in systematic risk.
In this study, however, I want to prove whether empirical studies run contrary to this
signaling theory in Hong Kong particularly.
The reasoning works as follows:
If dividend initiation does not signify future prosperity, we should be able to observe a
drop in profitability. Also, we might witness a rise in risk due to a rise in borrowings. Last but
not least, current assets should decrease after DI since the firms support their dividends with
excess cash and they aim to achieve a balance sheet with thinner current assets.
This study makes several contributions to the body of empirical literature: 1) I include all
firms going public in 2010-2012, which is representative and creates no bias to any industry; 2)
The research gap in DI in Hong Kong is partially filled by this study; 3) Short-term impact of DI
is focused on rather than long-term impact.
V. FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
Dividend Initiation and Firm Performance
The empirical results suggest that subsequent to dividend initiation, firm profitability
trends down and financial risk ascends. In other words, firm’s performance has deteriorated
since the dividends are initiated. I will elaborate from the three ratios:
Changes in Return on Assets (ROA)
If the hypothesis that dividend initiation does not predict future earnings is correct, then
ROA is supposed to decrease after DI. Appendix 1 summarizes the ROA one year before and
after the DI decisions of 153 DI firms. While the absolute value carries barely any meaning,
change in percentage and the average change is calculated. It shows that ROA decreases from
14.711 to 10.235, rising a percentage of 25.51% in average. The median firm also demonstrates
similar pattern: its ROA declines from 11.68 to 8.54. It implies that for every dollar of asset, the
firm is earning $3 less after DI. Some research results support this finding. Farsio, F., Geary, A.,
9 | P a g e
& Moser, J (2004) attributed the reason of decline to firms’ failure to catch some investment
opportunities due to dividend payout and thus suffer from earnings decline.
Changes in Debt/Equity Ratio
Changes in financial leverage reflect managers’ prospect toward company’s risk.
Managers may also opt to increase financial leverage due to low profitability. They may borrow
more debts and use excess funds in high-risk investments to maximize return. Leverage is
beneficial to company in that it avoids stock dilution and enjoys tax advantage. And actually, as
Bodie, Z., Kane, A., & Marcus, A. J. (2005) said, utilities industry with lots of debt are less risky
than unlevered firms such as technology companies. However, it is predictable that high level of
debt may drag a firm to default and bankruptcy in recession periods.
The hypothesis implies that DI will lead to an increase in financial leverage, making a
larger debt-equity ratio. Appendix 2 summarizes the debt-equity ratio one year before and after
DI. Again, percentage change and the average percentage change are calculated. It shows a rise
in financial leverage, from 37.49 to 44.57, which is consistent to the hypothesis. Also, the
median firm demonstrates an increase in debt-equity ratio, from 19.44 to 28.5.
Changes in Current Assets
Appendix 2 shows that current asset volume increases from 671,189,000 to 1,019,689
HKD, at a rate of 51.55%. This finding contradicts Sharma’s hypothesis. The existing empirical
research demonstrates that dividend payout is associated with lower cash levels. Grullon, G.,
Michaely, R., & Swaminathan, B. (2002) suggest that their results are consistent with the
exposition that dividend initiating firms generally have more idle funds and thus pay out
dividends to defray excess cash. It helps to alleviate agency problem and avoid over-investments.
Jensen (1986) states that agency costs arise from under- monitoring of managers and misuse of
cash. Firms that have large amount of cash are more likely to suffer from conflict of interests
between managers and shareholders. Thus, firms may choose to pay out dividends to reduce
excess cash and meanwhile prevent managers from misusing cash. In my research results, the
rise in current assets may result from the fact that the firms purchase more assets to support their
development in the early stages. Otherwise, the firms may not have distributed enough dividends
back to their shareholders.
10 | P a g e
Policy Implications
As dividend initiation is announced, investors read it as a positive signal, most likely a
combination of expectation of continued high profitability and reduction in agency costs. As the
euphoria of the period around dividend initiation subsides, investors realize that the firms’
investment opportunities are shrinking and lower their expectations for earnings growth.
The results suggest that managers who intend to take advantage of DI to signal investors
to have faith in their companies may fail the goal. Due to the free flow of information, the drop
in profitability and rise in risk will eventually tell investors the real situation of the companies.
VI. LIMITATION OF THE RESEARCH
Short Research Period
Since the listing information in Hong Kong is extremely limited, especially those listed long
ago. Hence, I use the firms listed in the year 2010-2012 as sample, which is a small sample
derived from a short period. Although I mentioned that the focus is on short-term impact of
DI, but long-term impact is also worth studying. It can take stock fluctuation as an important
research parameters and study the trend of stock.
Simplified Methodology
Three variables are used in the research, namely ROA, debt/equity ratio and current assets.
Actually, there are more variables that can be included, for example, capital expenditures,
free cash flow, market abnormal returns and so on. The inclusion of these variables can
further consolidate the hypothesis. Furthermore, a more sophisticated model involving
regression and software mastery can be developed in further studies. It can reveal much more
information than ratio comparison used in this study.
11 | P a g e
VII. REFERENCE LIST
Asquith, P., & Mullins, D. W. (1983). The Impact of Initiating Dividend Payments on
Shareholders' Wealth. The Journal of Business, 56(1), 77-96. Retrieved April 16, 2013, from