THE DESIGN OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS Graduate School of Energy Science Associate Professor Ben McLellan Kyoto University
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THE DESIGN OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS
Graduate School of Energy Science
Associate Professor Ben McLellan
KyotoUniversity
Energy systems
Essential to society and the economy Often mismatched between source and use Distributed uses, but often centralised
generation Not just electricity, but that’s the focus here
Sustainability
サステナビリティ（持続可能性）
Ｄｅｓａｒｒｏｌｌｏ Ｄｕｒａｂｌｅ ／ Ｓｏｓｔｅｎｉｂｌｅ
устойчивость
Sustainable Development is…
“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”
Ref: Brundtland, 1987
“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”
持続可能な開発 = じぞくかのうなかいはつ
Sustainability frameworks - I
Economic
Social
Environmental
社会
経済
環境
Triple Bottom Line = トリプルボトムライン
Sustainability frameworks - II
Economic
Social
Natural
Manufactured
Human
Five Capitals = 五つの資本製造された資本
人間資本
自然資本
金融資本
社会資本
A dynamic balance
SD
Economic
Natural
HumanSocial
Manufact-ured
Sustainable Development
Positive environmental and social legacy
Positive economic development within environmental limits
Higher quality of life for all members of societyImproved environmental condition
Intr
agen
erat
iona
lEqu
ity
世代
内の
公平
世代間の公平 / Intergenerational Equity
All sustainability decisions are a balancing act…
EconomyEnergy security
Project Cycle
Strategies and Planning
Design
Decommissioning
Concept
Construction
Feasibility
Fuel Extraction
Transmission / DistributionGeneration Use
The project-production cycle
Sustainability?
Potential for impact
0%
100%
Project Stages
Engineering Definition
Ability to Impact/EffectChange
Sustainability considered about here (in typical design)
Some sustainability issues
Fuel Extraction
Transmission / DistributionGeneration Use
Some sustainability issues
Fuel Extraction
Transmission / DistributionGeneration Use
• Location of fuel extraction• Extraction environmental impacts• Local community impacts and benefits• Local economic benefits
• Coal – fugitive methane and dust emissions• Natural gas – fugitive methane• Oil – oil spills / contamination• Uranium – radiotoxic and chemical leakage• Biomass – deforestation• PV / Wind – materials and energy intensity in production
Some sustainability issues
Fuel Extraction
Transmission / DistributionGeneration Use
• Emissions (operational and emergency)• Local employment• Contribution to social quality of life• Economic boost• Water usage and quality impacts
• Coal – dust, CO2, acidifying compounds, heavy metals• Natural gas – NOx acidifying and smog contributions• Oil – CO2, oil spills / contamination, acidifying compounds• Uranium – radiotoxic leakage, heated water• Biomass – CO2, acidifying compounds, ash• Wind – low frequency noise, bird kills
Some sustainability issues
Fuel Extraction
Transmission / DistributionGeneration Use
• Land usage or rental• Potential (but largely disproven) impacts of electromagnetic fields
Some sustainability issues
Fuel Extraction
Transmission / DistributionGeneration Use
• Efficiency• Economic output ability• Quality of life (health, service availability)
• Electricity – clean source of energy, risk of electrification• Natural gas – NOx acidifying and smog contributions• Oil – CO2, acidifying compounds
Natural resources flow
Natural environment
Human environment(people and society, community and
private infrastructure)
Ecological systems
Geological systems
“Sustainability Space” & “Carrying Capacity”
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Impa
ct -
Wat
er (M
L), E
nerg
y (M
J)
Distance, TimeLegislative ConstraintEnvironmental ConstraintEconomic ConstraintTechnical Constraint
Energy systems SD issues
Private / government infrastructure Public good / essential service Generator perspective vs consumer perspective Economic driver Direct and indirect environmental impacts Life cycle considerations important Carrying capacity
Brief comparison of energy systems
Selected indicators
Natural resource usage Emissions Economic indicators
Natural resource usage
1 100 10,000 1,000,000
Uranium
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Tonnes of fuel to operate a 1GW plant for one year
UsedExtracted
22
Non-fuel materials usage
Demand ratio: Replacement of 2000GW over next 10 years Required materials as % of 2008 production
Demand ratios: 2008 production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Coal Nuclear(PWR)
PV Wind Hydro
Perc
enta
ge o
f 200
8 Pr
oduc
tion
(%)
CadmiumCFRPChromiumCobaltCopperGalliumIndiumManganeseMolybdenumNickelNeodymiumSilverUraniumTelluriumVanadiumYtterbiumZirconium
Neodymium
Indium
Gallium
Demand ratios: 2008 production
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
Coal Nuclear(PWR)
PV Wind Hydro
Perc
enta
ge o
f 200
8 Pr
oduc
tion
(%) Cadmium
CFRPChromiumCobaltCopperGalliumIndiumManganeseMolybdenumNickelNeodymiumSilverUraniumTelluriumVanadiumYtterbiumZirconium
after Ashby et al. 2011
Water usage for energy
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0El
ectr
icity
(m3 /M
Wh)
Emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Em
issi
ons
(g C
O2
/ kW
h)
ConstructionFuel
After: http://www.nmm.jx-group.co.jp/english/sustainability/theme/climate-change/index.html
Estimated levelised cost - 2016
050
100150200250300350
2009
US$
/ M
Wh
EIA, 2009
Conclusions
Key messages
Sustainable energy systems require:1. Consideration of life cycle impacts on all “five
capitals”2. Understanding of the constraints that limit system
growth and allowable impacts3. Weighing-up and trading-off alternative impacts and
benefits4. Social acceptance can be crucial – social impacts
are critical
Further informationDr Ben McLellanAssociate ProfessorGraduate School of Energy ScienceKyoto University
Telephone +81 (0)75 753 9173Email [email protected]
Extra slides
Useful references
McLellan, B.C., Q. Zhang, et al. (2012). "Resilience, Sustainability and Risk Management: A Focus on Energy." Challenges 3(2): 153-182.
McLellan, B. C. and G. D. Corder (2012). "Risk reduction through early assessment and integration of sustainability in design in the minerals industry." Journal of Cleaner Production (article in press).
Resilience
During natural disasters energy systems must be…
1. Continuous2. Robust3. Independent4. Controllable5. Non-hazardous6. Matched to demand
McLellan, Zhang et al. 2012
Intergenerational Equity
Future generations have the right to quality of life
Implications for – land use, natural resource depletion… energy...
Legacy issues
世代間の公平 ＝せだいかいのこうへい
Intragenerational Equity
Bridging economic and quality of life gaps without destroying the environment
The challenge of energy systems in rapidly developing countries in the face of climate change constraints
世代内の公平 ＝せだいないのこうへい
The “Balance Sheet”
‐5 ‐4 ‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Natural
Social
Human
Manufactured
Financial
Impact
Standard outcomes from business‐as‐usual approaches
‐5 ‐4 ‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Natural
Social
Human
Manufactured
Financial
Impact
Improved outcomes from application of SD principles
No change
Positive change
Negative change
McLellan and Corder, 2012
Global electricity production and associated water consumption (2005)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Electricity production(TWh)
Water consumption(BCM)
Wind and solarHydro and GeothermalNuclearBiomassGasOilCoal
BCM = billion m3
Range of emissions values
-
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
Hard co
al
Hard co
al with
CCS
Lignite
Lignite
with
CCS
Natural ga
s to e
nerg
yOil t
o energ
y
Nuclear to
energy
Biomas
s to e
nergy
PV solar
to ene
rgy
Therm
osolar to
energ
y
Geotherm
al to en
ergy
Wind
onshore
to ene
rgy
Wind
offshore
to ene
rgy
Hydro
to en
ergy
t-CO
2eq/
MW
h
EEA, 2009
Levelised cost predictions
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