The Demographic Transformation

The Demographic Changes In Islamic Jerusalem And The

Border IssuesAhmad Irfan bin Ikmal Hisham

2005

Under supervision of

Dr Maher Abu Munshar

Dr Alhaj Manteh Drammah

Objectives:

• To analyse the data from British census in Palestine generally and in Jerusalem specifically.

• To examine one of the Zionist strategy to overwhelm the Jews population in Jerusalem by imitating the number of their people, or by playing with the demographical facts.

Definition of Demographic

• Study of populations statistics, changes, and trends based on various measures of fertility (adding to a population), mortality (subtracting from a population), and migration (redistribution of a population).

Source: Nevada Social Science Standards: Geography Glossary

• In its initial stage, Zionism was conceived by its pioneers as a movement wholly depending on mechanical factors: there is a country which happens to be called Palestine, a country without a people …

• [Our intention is to] finally establish such a society in Palestine that Palestine shall be as Jewish as England is English, or America is American.

Chaim Weizmann, to the French

Zionist Federation, March 28 1914

(Weizmann was later to become the

first President of Israel)

• "We have an important task before us. We have met here to lay the foundation-stone of the house that will some day shelter the Jewish people. . . We have to aim at securing legal, international guarantees for our work."

Theodor Herzl in effect invented Zionism as a true political movement and an international force. Born to a prosperous, emancipated Budapest family, he was fluent in German and French but LACKED Hebrew, Yiddish, and Russian; he was secular, cosmopolitan intellectual, a doctor of law

• To the north, the Litani river [in southern Lebanon], to the northeast, the Wadi 'Owja, twenty miles south of Damascus; the southern border will be mobile and pushed into Sinai at least up to Wadi al-'Arish; and to the east, the Syrian Desert, including the furthest edge of Transjordan" (Expulsion Of The Palestinians, p. 87)

Ben Gurion was the major factor behind Yishuv's (a term that refers to the Jews in Palestine prior to 1948) military power and is considered as the founder of the State of Israel

• If there are other inhabitants there, they must be transferred to some other place. We must take over the land. We must have a greater and nobler ideal than preserving several hundred thousands of Arab Fellahin… Menahem Ussishkin,

chairman of Jewish National Fund,

addressing journalist in Jerusalem, April 28,

1930.

Jewish National Fund is the caretaker of the land of Israel, on behalf of its owners - Jewish People

everywhere.

Population of Palestine before British Mandate

• The number of Jews rose during the Ottoman rule owing to the tolerance of the Ottomans and the economic and financial pressures exerted by the European States on the Ottoman government. Consequently, the number of Jews rose to 6,000 in Jerusalem in 1525, after less than 10 years of establishing the Ottoman Empire

• It was estimated in the 1890s that the inhabitant of Palestine was around 460,000.

• Proportion based on religion:• Muslims: 79%• Christians: 16%• Jews: 5%

Jewish before the British Mandate• In the early 1880s, the Jewish population of

Palestine was about 25,000, concentrate almost exclusively in the city of Jerusalem, Safed, Tiberias and Hebron.

• The number of Jews continued to rise until the first Zionist Conference was held in Basl, Switzerland, in 1897, during which the issues of settlement and increasing the number of Jews were given great significance

• Main increase of Jews took place in Jerusalem:• 1830s: 3,000 out of 11,000 (27.3%)• 1850s: 5,000 out of 15,000 (33%)• 1872: 10,600 out of 21,000 (50.5%)• 1899: Jews (30,000- 61%), Muslims (7,700), Christians

(10,900)

Demographic TransformationDuring British Mandate 1922-1948

• British held their census statistic in 1922 to the last estimate in 1946

•During that period, total population including all religious group, increased from 62,000 to 164,000

•Immigration by Jews accounted for the largest proportion of the increase.

Census statistic during British Mandatein all of Palestine land

589177

8379071464

7617

761922

175138

89134

10145

1061270

553600

135550

141000

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Population

1922 1931 1945 Year

Muslim

Jews

Christian

Other

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1922 1931 1945

Muslim

Jews

Christian

Other

Census statistic during British Mandatein all of Palestine land

1922

78%

11%

10% 1%

1931

73%

17%

9% 1%

1945

60%

31%

8% 1%Muslim

Jews

Christian

Other

13400 14700

34100

1990019300

53800

3370031300

99300

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1922 1931 1946

Muslims

Christians

Jews

Population of Jerusalem by Religion: 1922-1946

Source: Jerusalem Institute of Israeli Studies

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1922 1931 1946

Muslims

Christians

Jews

Population of Jerusalem by Religion: 1922-1946

Source: Jerusalem Institute of Israeli Studies

1922

22%

24%

54%

1931

21%

21%

58%

1946

21%

19%60%

MuslimsChristiansJews

Increase of Jews during British Mandate• It was closely related with the Balfour

Declaration – November 1917:“His Majesty’s Government view with favour the

establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people … it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of the existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine.” (noted that these non-Jewish communities formed 93% from 750,000 population)

• Consequently, there was a huge immigration in Palestine during that time. For instance:• Jews from German immigrated to Palestine due to

Hitler’s accession to power. 1933: 30,000. 1934: 42,000. 1935: 61,000.(noted that majority of Jewish immigrant still came from outside Germany, such as British and United States.

1946

21%

19%60%

MuslimsChristiansJews

•The statistic not reliable. There is a hidden agenda behind this fact. •It is important to note that the official British figures require qualification.•For instance, it is generally accepted that the 1946 figure for the Jewish population exceeds the actual population by a few thousands on account of the over-recording illegal immigrants and of those who arrived in Palestine to live in Jerusalem but subsequently moved to Tel Aviv.

1946

21%

19%60%

MuslimsChristiansJews

• Another qualification consideration is the restricted nature of the municipal boundaries of Jerusalem.

• Rural Arab settlement such as Lifta, Syeikh Badr, Al-Tur, Ain Karim, Shu’fat, al-Malkha were excluded from the census.

• While new Jewish settlement like Montefiore, Bet-Ha-Karem, Bet Vegan, Givat Sha’ul, Meqor Hayim, Talpiot and Ramat Rachel, which were outside the municipality but regarded as part of the Jerusalem birth registration area, were included.

• Result: impression of an overwhelming Jewish majority in 1946.

• If the wider Jerusalem area is included, then a approximate balance between the Jewish and non-Jewish population can be posited.

• An Israeli census in the Spring 1948 indicates a drop in the Jewish population of Jerusalem from 99,300 in 1946 to 85,000 during the spring, and decrease to 58,600 in November 1948 (approximately a drop of 30,000 since 1946). The political fortunes of Israel meant that many of those who were temporarily residing in Tel Aviv returned to the city at a later stage and the number of Jews soon picked up.

• In contrast, the Arab community of Jerusalem experienced a more severe upheaval.

On the eve of 1949 Armistice Agreements.

After 1949 Armistice Agreement• After the Armistice Agreement, is has been

estimated that approximately half the original Arab population had left.

• Census by Jordan in 1952 indicates that the Arab population in East Jerusalem was 46,7000. In 1946, it was estimated that the population was around 51,228.

• 12,000 of this population were refugees receiving rations from the United Nation Relief and Work Agency for Palestinian Refugees.

Thus, it appears the city lost Palestinians from the core of the city only to be replaced by Palestinians from the surrounding area.

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2002

Jews

Muslims

Christians

Druze

Source: Israel’s Statistic, taken from Yediot Ahronot

Between 1948 – 1967 in East Jerusalem

• There was only gradual increase in population, below the rate of natural increase. (1952: 46,700. 1961: 60,500)

• The main factor of outflow of population:• Emigration, due to difficulties over the

provision of water supplies between divided cities.

• Jordanian census in 1967 revealed the decline in East Jerusalem population, mainly due to immigration of war.

Between 1948 – 1967 in West Jerusalem

• Israeli West Jerusalem’s population experienced an increase by a factor two and half times, from 87,900 in 1945 rising to 193,000 in 1966.

• The increase was fluctuated. More people left the city than arrived. The increase of population was mainly due to natural increase, not immigration.

Current Facts.• At the end of the year 2001 Jerusalem’s population

stood at 670,000 individuals. Of this number, 454,600 (or 68%) were Jewish and 215,400 (or 32%) were Arab. This compares to 81% Jews and 19% Arabs in Israel as a whole (without the West Bank and Gaza).

In 2001 Jerusalemites made up 10% of the overall population of Israel, compared to Tel Avivians who accounted for 5.5% of the overall population and Haifa residents who represented 4% of all Israeli residents.

Jerusalem’s Jewish residents accounted for 9% of all Jews nationwide, and Arab Jerusalemites accounted for 18% of all Arabs nationwide.

Arab and Others

Jerusalem Jews, Israel

Jerusalem Jews

Statistical Yearbook Jerusalem: 2000

Annual Growth Rate

Analysis of the Previous Annual Growth

• Jerusalem’s Arab population is growing much faster (4% in 1999) than the Jewish population (1.1%), which is growing even slower than the rest of Israel. In 1998, the city witnessed a net loss of 6,300 Jewish residents; the main reason for leaving is the high housing prices in the city.

Overall: 2.0%

Jewish population: 1.8% (of which 32.8% are due to immigration balance)

Arab population: 3.1% (almost entirely due to natural increase)

During the 1990s, the Jewish population growth rate was about 3% per year, as a result of massive immigration to Israel, primarily from the republics of the former Soviet Union. There is also a high population growth rate among certain Jewish groups, especially ultra-Orthodox Jews

Population growth rate2001-2002 annual averages

Conclusion 1• The demographic policies of the Israeli

government have been success in term of huge population increase from 266,300 in 1967 to 545,000 in 1990.

• Three quarters of them were Jews.• Over two-third of this increase of Jews

people has been settled in annexed areas – East Jerusalem and those parts of the West Bank which were incorporated into Jerusalem.

In term of land utilisation, Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem has never been stronger.

Conclusion 2• On the other hand, the policies have failed to:

• Prevent the increasing transfer of Israeli Jewish population from the west side of the city to the annexed areas..

• Prevent the continual out-migration of Jews to either the surrounding metropolitan area or other parts of Israel

• Contain Palestinian growth. • Despite the success achieved by this policy, there are

some strong points for the Palestinians as well as the Arabs in this struggle, especially the international resolutions condemning these schemes by the Zionists, such as resolution 478 in 1980, as well as the fact that there are still approximately 208,000 Palestinians and 50 Palestinian institutions in the city.

• There has been a decrease in the percentage of Jews in the city over the years: from 74% in 1967, to 72% in 1980 and 68% in 2001.

At the same time there has been an increase in the percentage of Arabs in the city: from 26% in 1967, to 28% in 1980 and 32% in 2001. In 2001, 40% of Jerusalem’s children ages 0-4 were Arab

Current Demographic Fact

Border Issue

After Ottoman’s administrative reorganisation in 1883, Islamic Jerusalem was divided into:• Vilayet (province) of Beirut in the north • Sanjak (district) of Jerusalem to the south.

The Sanjak of Jerusalem was autonomous and directly linked to the Ministry of the Interior in Constantinople in view of its importance of the three major religion there.

The British were victorious over the Turks in the Middle East and with victory in Palestine, General Sir Edmund Allenby, commander-in-chief of the Egyptian Expeditionary Force entered Jerusalem on foot, on December 11th, 1917. By the time General Allenby took Jerusalem from the Ottomans in 1917, the new city was a patchwork of neighborhoods and communities, each with a distinct ethnic character.

• After the fall of Ottoman Turk as a result of the 1914-1918 war, League of Nations legitimised British military control through the establishment of a British Mandate for Palestine.

• Jerusalem became the capital of a single geographical area, uniting the former Ottoman sanjaks of Jerusalem, Nablus and Acre.

1917. Jewish Legion soldiers at the Western Wall after taking part in British conquest of Jerusalem

Gerrymandering the Municipal Border

• The western border forms a kind of hook to incorporate the more distant Jewish neighbourhoods of Qiryat Moshe, Bet Ha-Karem and Bet Vegan.

• While the eastern border run tightly along the Old City walls to avoid taking in Silwan, Ras al-Amud, Abu Tor and al-Tur.

To include as many new Jewish neighbourhood as possible into the city

boundaries while excluding nearby Arab

villages.

Results of the gerrymandering

Jews had an impact upon the electoral

politics of the city. In council, it is hard for Palestinian to sustain

against strenuous Jewish opposition.

UNSCOP and Partition Plan 1947

UNSCOPUnited Nations Special Comitte

On Palestine

Majority (Canada, Czechoslovakia,

Guatemala, Netherlands, Peru, Sweden, Uruguay): Independent Arab and Jewish state

Minority (India, Iran, Yugoslavia): Independent

Arab and Jewish state

Abstain (Australia)

• On November 29, 1947, the UN General Assembly voted 33 to 13, with 10 abstentions, in favor of the Partition Plan, while making some adjustments to the boundaries between the two states proposed by it. The division was to take effect on the date of British withdrawal.

The Jewish state was to receive 55% of Mandatory Palestine. This included the fruitful shore plain and the Negev Desert. The desert was not suitable for agriculture, nor for urban development at that time. The land allocated to the Jewish state was largely that where there was a significant Jewish population

Reaction to the New Border• The Arab leadership opposed the plan, arguing that it

violated the rights of the majority of the people in Palestine, which at the time was 67% non-Jewish (1,237,000) and 33% Jewish (608,000).

• They criticized the amount and quality of land given to Israel. The Jews had been offered 55% percent of the land when they only owned 7%. Although it should be noted that much of the land area was not actually owned by anyone (Jewish or Arab) -- it was desert under the control of the British Mandate.

• The population for the proposed Jewish State would be 498,000 Jews and 325,000 non-Jews. The population for the proposed Arab State would be 807,000 non-Jews and 10,000 Jews. The population for the proposed International Zone would be 105,000 non-Jews and 100,000 Jews.

Jews Reaction• Political pressure by proponents of partition was used to

get the UN to pass the partition proposal. Most of the Jews accepted the proposal, in particular the Jewish Agency, which was the Jewish state-in-formation. The more extreme nationalist Jewish groups like Menachem Begin’s Irqun Tsyai Leuimi and Yithzak Shamir’s Lehi (known as the Stern Gang) which had been fighting the British rejected it.

• Numerous records indicate the joy of Palestine's Jewish inhabitants as they attended to the U.N. session voting for the division proposal.

• Up to this day, Israeli history books mention November 29th (the date of this session) as the most important date in the Israel's acquisition of independence. However Jews did criticise the lack of territorial continuity for the Jewish state.

Armistice Agreement

• The 1949 Armistice Agreements are a set of agreements signed during 1949 between Israel and its neighbors Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. The agreements ended the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, and outlined Israel's de-facto borders, also known as the Green Line, until the 1967 Six-Day War.

Armistice Agreement with Egypt

The agreement with Egypt was signed on February 24. The main points were:

• The armistice line was drawn along the international border (dating back to 1906) for the most part, except near the Mediterranean Sea, where Egypt remained in control of a strip of land along the coast, which became known as the Gaza Strip.

• The Egyptian forces besieged in the Faluja Pocket were allowed to return to Egypt with their weapons, and the area was handed over to Israel.

• A zone on both sides of the border around 'Uja al-Hafeer (Nitzana) was to be demilitarized, and became the seat of the bilateral armistice committee.

Armistice Agreement with Jordan

The agreement with Jordan was signed on April 3. The main points:

• Jordanian forces remained in most positions held by them in the West Bank, including the Arab East Jerusalem, and the Old City.

• Jordan withdrew its forces from their front posts overlooking the Plain of Sharon. In return, Israel agreed to allow Jordanian forces to take over positions in the West Bank previously held by Iraqi forces.

• A Special Committee was to be formed to make arrangements for safe movement of traffic between Jerusalem and Mount Scopus campus of Hebrew University, along the Latrun-Jerusalem Highway, free access to the Holy Places, and other matters.

Jerusalem border after 1967• After the occupation of so-called

Jordanian East Jerusalem by Israeli military forces in June 1967, Israel passed legislation which incorporated East Jerusalem and adjacent parts of the West Bank into Israel.

• They legislation was designed in such a way as to avoid terming it ‘annexation’, but semantic ambiguity did not obscure the fact of it.

‘Three days law’• 27 June 1967: Amendment of the Law and

Administration Ordinance by Knesset into ‘… the law, jurisdiction and administration of the state shall extend to any area of Eretz Israel designated by the government by order.’

• 28 June 1967: Israel issued an order applying this amendment over an area of 30,000 dunums of East Jerusalem and the West Bank, stretching from Qalandia airport of the north to Sur Bahir in the south, and including the Old City.

• 29 June 1967: The Jordanian East Jerusalem Municipality was ordered to cease activity and dissolved.

1967

Result of the 3-days-law• Some villages like Abu Dis, Azariyya,

Beit Hanina and al-Ram were excluded when the new boundaries stretched from Qalandia in the north to Azariyya in the east, and Sur Bahir in the south.

• Control over military strategic hill-tops and defensible valley was also taken into account and boundaries to the north and south adjusted accordingly.

• Promote the Jewishness of the city.