The debate over the future and the topic of expectations By Andrea Declich Knowledgn & Innovation - Association Trento, 5 November 2015 1.

The debate over the future and the topic of expectations

By Andrea Declich

Knowledgn & Innovation - Association Trento, 5 November 2015

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Contents

1. Introduction – narrative and expectations: a necessary relation for talking about the future

2. Future and Fundamental Uncertainty3. Uncertainty Does Not Prevent Action4. Future, Expectations And Narratives5. Some topics for research

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1 – Introduction Future: a crucial issue for social sciences Several approaches have been devised for dealing

with this issue (time series analysis, extrapolation, models, scenarios, etc.)

Sociologists and economists, in different ways, have proposed the issue by dealing with expectations (a review in Declich 2014)

The issue of expectations is connected with narrative and storytelling

I will argue that the use of narrative and storytelling is puzzling and needs further research

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2. FUTURE AND FUNDAMENTAL UNCERTAINTY/1

When we talk about the future, we always have to do with: some expected situations uncertainty about such situations

This is a typical condition we face when we talk about technological innovation

Possible problems with technological innovation is not the only cause of our concern about the future

Technological innovation is a good entry point for a reflection over the future and expectations

Innovation in general is, anyhow, one of the main characteristic of the future (i.e. “Il Gattopardo” di Tomasi da Lampedusa) 4


When we are in a context of innovation “we really don’t know” what expect us – Past experiences are of very little help (we are thinking about something new)

We are facing a context in which strategic behavior is the rule

coordination among the actors is a critical issue, especially because it cannot be taken for granted, or based on past experiences (ie on existing rules, institutions, routines, visions, etc.)

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Not always we are able to face this situation resorting to games theory or some forecasting device.

Especially in a context of innovation, we are facing “crucial” situations (see Davidson 1985 and Shackle), ie choices to be made just once and that are not recurrent

In case of innovation, we are in the situation reported by Steve Jobs, who quoted Henry Ford:

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

Complex situations: We cannot take for granted that the visions of the actors will converge Too much factors impact the reality and we do not know most of them

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3. UNCERTAINTY DOES NOT PREVENT ACTION/1

Anyhow, people and organization face the future, investments are done, R&D is carried out

Anyhow, people (including scientists, innovators, companies) coordinate their actions, in a more or less successful way

Something makes it possible I just would like to suggest some ideas, based on an

interdisciplinary work on this issue. People have to have expectations about the future in

order to act (see the work of various scholars, even classics both in sociology and in economics reported in Declich 2014; see also Shiller 2008; Beckert 2011, Van Lente 2012)

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In general, when we think about the future we have a typical rhetorical problem: “the future – whether composed of certainties or

uncertainties or the inevitable combination of the two – lies outside the realm of proof (Selin 2008, 1882)

What can be said about the future is only probable, not certain. What is the future course of the events – is a matter of plausibility

Entrepreneurs, politicians, dealers can only try to convince people that their arguments are good, that what they are saying is probable, not certain

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When we talk about the future, we need trust, we need suspension (see Mollering 2001 on Simmel)

Furthermore, the idea we have of the future – our expectations – impacts on the ways we behave today. This is what is called the “forward-looking character” of expectations (on

this agreement between economists and some sociologists (see Brown and Michael 2003)

Expectations have to be focused on specific objects; Self fulfilling prophecies consist in forms of coordination on

expectations Collective behaviors are connected to expectations Narratives and storytelling are appropriate issues to raise

for talking about how this future oriented actions happen9

4. FUTURE, EXPECTATIONS AND NARRATIVES/1

There are some research paths and results that suggest to consider this connection

Sociology of social movements. In the 90s, scholars of collective action focused attention on meaning construction promoted by social movement activists and other parties (Snow 2004)

It is relevant the concept of frame as it is presented by Polletta and Chen (2012) quoting Benford and Snow: “Frames are sets of beliefs that “assign meaning to and interpret relevant events and conditions in ways that are

intended to mobilize potential adherents and constituents, to garner bystander support and to demobilize antagonists”

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The focus on frame was caused by the fact that dominant scholarship on social movement did not explain well the reasons why and the mechanisms through which new social movements arose, grievances became to being felt and collective identity took shape (Hunt and Bedford 2004, 437; Davis 2002)

Various authors within this scholarship noted that focusing on narratives help to overcome problems connected to the framing approach itself:

overemphasis on cognitive factors and “on logical persuasion and consensus of belief” (Davis 2002) and, in general,

the difficulties in understanding how and when frames are successful (Polletta and Chen 2012).

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Sociology, at least recently, has begun to assign Storytelling an important place. A significant work is being done.

Narrative has been considered important also for talking of the future:

Stories reconfigure the past, endowing it with meaning and continuity, and so also project a sense of what will or should happen in the future (Davis 2002, 12).

It’s typical of stories “adding cause and effect to temporal succession” (Davis 2002, 14)

Nevertheless future does not seems as one of the most important concerns of social movements scholars

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The connection of narrative with expectations and the future – at least as a means for explaining some of the forces and direction of changes - has been posed by other scholars in different disciplines and sub-disciplines

Konrad, Van Lente and other STS scholars – Expectations should be understood as appearing in the form of Narratives (Konrad 2006)

Narratives and future are connected also according to outstanding scholars. The Noble Prize winner Shiller documented that the boom phases of stock

exchange where always connected to a sort of “New era economic thinking” (Shiller 2000).

Together with another Nobel Prize winner, Akerlof, Shiller talked of storytelling as one of the “animal spirits” (Akerlof & Shiller 2009)

Some authors stresses the idea that visions about the future become stories (see Declich 2014; Beckert 2011)

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Narratives produce a wide array of effects on the audiences that is similar to the “suspension” (see Polletta and Chen 2012) Simmel talked about

Many theorists of narratives talk of the concept of “Suspension of disbelief” (introduced by Coleridge) Suspension of disbelief is a typical effect – or condition – of storytelling (cfr

Salmon 2008; it is fundamental for expectations ie Beckert 2011 and Declich 2014)

But it is not the only effect that storytelling has on us all. Storytelling produces engagement. Neuroscientists talk about of similar impacts (Murphy 2012; Gallese 2010);

Scholars studying framing within social movements focused exactly on the issue of engagement (e.g. Benford and Snow 2000)

Storytelling and narratives appear as important for talking about the future and its “construction”

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What is interesting about stories are the following points (Declich 2014)

stories are directly connected with expectations and expectation formation

stories are powerful tools for engaging and coordinating people stories are tools for promoting and informing change The literature on technological innovation reports about the big

effort done for describing the bright future of technologies well before they demonstrated successful (see Selin 2007 for Nanotechnologies and the study of Rip and Van Lente 1998 on membrane technology and other technologies)

This is not all we should know, of course, but a delimitation of a possible field of enquiry SEE EXAMPLE

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5. Some topics for research/1 How stories emerge and storytelling take place (who define

and promote stories; a lot of work has been done in new marketing studies, in STS and in political studies (eg Van Lente-Rip 1998); this is a typical issue raised within the “sociology of storytelling”

What are the typical structures of stories (a lot of work has been done by very important narratologists on stories, from Propp to Campbell and also by authors of fictions’ scripts) and which – among many – are relevant for a sociological analysis concerning the future

What are the conditions for having a story? What forms do they take in different context? Sociology of Social Movements has gone in depth in this kind of analysis (see Polletta et al. 2011).

An interesting accounts of how people mobilization is carried out through storytelling is presented by Ganz (2001) 16

5. Some topics for research/2 This stream of literature is mainly focused on collective action.

Nevertheless, one of the outstanding scholars within this scholarship proposes to distinguish between “collective Action Frames” from “Everyday Interpretive frames” (Snow 2004,384-5)

It is interesting to explore the possible (and probable) connection between this second type of framing and narrative/storytelling

Furthermore, my impression – that could change - is that within sociology storytelling has been considered mainly with reference to micro-mobilization (Hunt and Benford 2004, 438).

Probably the focus should be on the ways in which some assumptions about the future are taken for granted by large audiences not tied together by organizational links (eg the idea that the real estate market is deemed in perennial growth – the golden age Shiller 2000 talked of). 17

5. Some topics for research/3 In order to do this, it is necessary to avoid a

simplistic interpretation of stories and of storytelling exercise (this is the criticism to Salmon approach that seems to reduce storytelling to a just new marketing technique, see Berut 2010)

Polletta and Chen (2012) stress that there is a role of listeners in shaping frames and stories, and the ways in which stories are enjoyed are very important (Davis 2002)

Polletta and Cheng (2012) stress that stories depend on previous stories, and constitute a cultural backdrop. 18

5. Some topics for research/4 The connection I propose between stories and expectations

should be further developed. It should be kept in mind that there is not an identification between the two concepts.

Roughly speaking, expectations are specific ideas about the future that are accepted because their social meaning depend on shared stories

Shiller (2008) criticizes the idea of ascertain expectations by simply asking people what they expect about certain economic variables;

Carrol (2003) holds that people have expectations about prices after being exposed to comments on the matter from the TV

Expectations scholars stress that there are hypes. Because of this connection between expectations and narratives, we can expect that the resilience of certain expectations depends on the strength of the (set of) narrative(s) they are coupled with.

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5. Some topics for research/5 Another important aspect is represented by the different

roles the actors play in producing expectations and in storytelling (eg. The role of scientific entrepreneur in promoting nanotechnology in the USA Motoyama et al. 2011 or of some important storytellers Selin 2007; see also Rip & Van Lente, 1998).

Let me underline that it is a field of study that is very interdisciplinary, and this is one of the difficulties to be taken into account

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THANK YOU!

[email protected]

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References/1Akerlof G.A., Shiller R.J. (2009), Animal Spirits. How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why it

Matters for Global Capitalism, Princeton, Princeton University Press.Beckert J. (2011), Imagined Futures: Fictionality in Economic Action, MPIfG Discussion Paper 11/8Benford R.D. and Snow D.A (2000), Framing processes and Social Movements: An Overview and

Assessment, in Annualr Review of Sociology, Vol 26 (2000)Birat J-P., (2014) Steel industry: culture and futures, paper presened at the 8th European Continuous

Casting ConferenceBerut B. (2010) Storytelling : une nouvelle propagande par le récit ? Quaderni. Communication,

technologies, pouvoir 72, Printemps 2010 :Propagandes en démocratie, DossierBorup M., Brown N., Konrad K., Van Lente H. (2006), The Sociology of expectations in Science and

Technology,«Journal of Technology Analysis & Strategic Management» , Volume 18, Issue 3 & 4 July.Brown N., Michael M. (2003) A sociology of Expectations: Retrospecting Prospects and Prospecting

Retrospect, «Technology Analysis and Strategic Management», Vol. 15, No. 1.Bruner J (1991), The Narrative Construction of Reality, «Critical Inquiry», Vol. 18, No. 1 (Autumn).Carroll C. D. (2003), The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations, April 15,

http://www.econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/EpidemiologySFI.pdfDavidson P. (1985), Aspettative razionali: un fondamento erroneo per l’analisi dei processi decisionali di

importanza cruciale, Visco I. (a cura di) (1985), Le aspettative nell’analisi economica, Bologna, Il Mulino

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http://www.econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/EpidemiologySFI.pdf

References/2Davis J.E. (2002), The Power of Stories, in Davis J.E. (2002) (Ed.), Stories of Change, SUNY Press, New

YorkDeclich A. (2014), “Observations For An Interdisciplinary Reflection On Expectations And Narratives”,

Quaderni di Sociologia, Torino, N.64/2014 vol. LVIII.Gallese V. (2010), Postfazione, in Morelli, U., (2010), Mente e bellezza. Arte, creatività e innovazione,

Torino, Umberto Allemandi & C..Ganz M., (2001), The Power of Story in Social Movements, paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the

American Sociological Association, Anaheim, California, AugustHunt S.A., Benford R.D. (2004), Collective Identity, Sodlidarity and Commitment, in Snow D.A., Soule S.

A., Kriesi H. (eds.) (2004), The Blackwell Companion to Social Movements, Blackwell Publishing LtdKonrad K., (2006), Shifting but forceful expectations: structuring through the prospect of materialisation,

paper presentato al Twente VII workshop su “Material Narratives – of Technology in Society”, Enschede, October 19-21

Mollering G., (2001) “The Nature of Trust: From Georg Simmel to a Theory of Expectation, Interpretation and Suspension”, in Sociology, Vol. 35, No. 2

Motoyama Y., Appelbaum R., Parker R. (2011) The National Nanotechnology Initiative: Federal support for science and technology, or hidden industrial policy?, in Technology in Society 33 (2001) 109-118

Murphy Paul A. (2012), Your Brain on Fiction, «New York Times» on line, 17 marzo, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/opinion/sunday/the-neuroscience-of-your-brain-on-fiction.html?_r=3&pagewanted=al&

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References/3Polletta F., Chen P.C.B., Gardner B,g., Motes A. (2011), The Sociology of Storytelling, in The Annual

Review of Sociology, 2011, 37:109-30Polletta F., Ghen P.C.B. (2012), Narrative and Social Movements, in Alexander J.C., Jacobs R. and Smith

P. (2012) (Eds), The Oxford Handbook of Cultural Sociology, Oxford University PressRip A., Van Lente H. (1998), Expectations in Technological Developments: An Example of Prospective

Structures to be Filled in by Agency, in Disco C., Van der Meulen B., (a cura di) (1998), Getting New Technologies Together. Studies in Making Sociotechnical Order, Berlin New York, Walter de Gruyter

Salmon C. (2008), Storytelling. La fabbrica delle idee, Roma, Fazi EditoreSelin C. (2007) Expectations and the Emergence of Nanotechnology, «Science, Technology & Human

Values», Volume 32, number 2, MarchSelin C. (2008), The Sociology of the Future: Tracing Stories of Technology and Time, in Sociology

Compass 2/6 (2008): 1878–1895, 10.1111/j.1751-9020.2008.00147.xShiller R.J, (2000), Euforia irrazionale. Alti e bassi della borsa, Bologna, Il MulinoShiller R.J. (2008), Expectations, «The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics», Second Edition, New

York, Palgrave McMillan.Snow D.A. (2004) “Framing Processes, Ideology and Discursive Fields”, in Sno D.A., Soule S.A., Kriesi

H. (Eds), (2004), The Blackwell Companion to Social Movements, Blackwell Publishing LtdVan Lente H. (2012), Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of

expectations, «Technology Analysis & Strategic Management», 24:8, 769-782

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Il Gattopardo Even conservative politics needs innovation. It is

the famous sentence of the Italian novel of Giuseppe Tomasi da Lampedusa, “Il Gattopardo”:

«Se vogliamo che tutto rimanga come è, bisogna che tutto cambi»

« For everything to remain as it is, everything has to change»

also known as “gattopardismo” (“gattopardism”???)

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Example – Narratives about steel/1

Stories are told by someone. A researcher I am working with specialized on materials and especially steel, selected several narratives about steel, each told by different actors (Birat 2014): Steel Process Technologists Economists and business people Historians Advocacy actors Metallurgists Etc.

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This is an example of the possible stories told for proposing about steel and its production and for proposing innovation policies in this field. 1st steel production has been exploding since 2000 and this is likely to

continue for a long time! 2nd This trend is regional 3th Europe is still mired in a depression. The narrative therefore tells of

overcapacities 4th Technical progress has not stalled but has become almost exclusively

incremental compared to the breakthrough technologies developed in the XX century

5th Europe is still a world leader in steel, in term of steel intensity, steel technology and steel solutions

6th Many innovation drivers have stalled or saturated, except at the margin. The sustainability driver is still idling and ready to go!

7th Innovation and the risk of the death valley27


What can be highlighted in Birat’s work on these narratives is that Stories are not told by chance There is always some intentionality;

A vision of the world and an identity of the tellers is connected to the stories; (Bruner 1991, connects narrative to the construction of reality)

Although these stories are not coherent, they are not mutually exclusive

Stories have many interesting characteristic but now I focus on just some, the most connected to the construction of the future.

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The debate over the future and the topic of expectations By Andrea Declich Knowledgn & Innovation - Association Trento, 5 November 2015 1.

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