cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Peter Cochrane The Curse of Optimization Future sustainability, technology, industry and society Wednesday, 6 November 13
The curse of efficiency
May 08, 2015
Of all the species on the planet we are alone in optimizing anything and everything. But this is not a route to long term sustainability, and to move on from the destructive vice of manufacturing more and more for the few, to a world of providing sufficient for the many, we have to think and act very differently. Today’s technologies and production methods cannot achieve an equitable, stable and sustainable future for mankind, but future tech probably can.
The key starting point lies at the cusp of nano, bio, artificial life and artificial intelligence, and our key challenge is to understand and master complexity. These components lie at the heart of (virtually) lossless repurposing, reuse and recycling and minimal energy consumption. We have to move on to material printing and programing instead of machining and forging; tagging and tracking instead of destruction and dumping; organic symbiosis instead of environmental destruction.
Is there an existence theorem for this hypothesis? Look no further than mother nature! She optimizes and wastes nothing, always goes for low energy and low material consumption, recycles efficiently whilst achieving impressive resiliency. Can we do the same ? Almost certainly, but we have to rethink our ‘short termism and quick win’ modes of operation, and we have to adopt methods and solutions focused on the long term future. We also have to adopt ‘good enough’ strategies instead of extreme optimization. In turn, this demands a partnership and symbiosis with our machines to overcome our fundamental human limitations precluding us achieving these goals unaided.
The key starting point lies at the cusp of nano, bio, artificial life and artificial intelligence, and our key challenge is to understand and master complexity. These components lie at the heart of (virtually) lossless repurposing, reuse and recycling and minimal energy consumption. We have to move on to material printing and programing instead of machining and forging; tagging and tracking instead of destruction and dumping; organic symbiosis instead of environmental destruction.
Is there an existence theorem for this hypothesis? Look no further than mother nature! She optimizes and wastes nothing, always goes for low energy and low material consumption, recycles efficiently whilst achieving impressive resiliency. Can we do the same ? Almost certainly, but we have to rethink our ‘short termism and quick win’ modes of operation, and we have to adopt methods and solutions focused on the long term future. We also have to adopt ‘good enough’ strategies instead of extreme optimization. In turn, this demands a partnership and symbiosis with our machines to overcome our fundamental human limitations precluding us achieving these goals unaided.
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cochrane.org.ukca-global.org
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Peter Cochrane
The Curse of Optimization Future sustainability, technology, industry and society
Wednesday, 6 November 13
In a
connectedworld
of
f i n i t eresources
a stove-piped
V i e wis
dangerousWednesday, 6 November 13
Optimizing by € € € € aloneleads to brittleness andinstability often with severe ecologicaland socialdamage
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Today’s financial systems only produce one result
Countries, companies & economies
that look like thisare short lived
Wednesday, 6 November 13
In the long term this is fundamentally impossible... . . . y o u c an ’ t have it all at the same time!
Wednesday, 6 November 13
This is what business schools teach budding managers, butit is incomplete, andit is wrong!
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Brittleness
This is what business schools teach budding managers, butit is incomplete, andit is wrong!
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Brittleness
Cost of
OwnershipThis is what business schools
teach budding managers, butit is incomplete, andit is wrong!
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
For the specific exponential case:
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
For the specific exponential case:
C = Aexp(-a.𝓷) + Bexp(b.𝓷)
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
For the specific exponential case:
C = Aexp(-a.𝓷) + Bexp(b.𝓷)
The optimum operating efficiency is found to be:
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷)
€ € €
Efficiency𝓷
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
For the specific exponential case:
C = Aexp(-a.𝓷) + Bexp(b.𝓷)
𝓷o = b - a__1 loge Aa
Bb_
The optimum operating efficiency is found to be:
Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets
Wednesday, 6 November 13
The worst
case
Wednesday, 6 November 13
The worst
case
Only humans optimize...
Mother Nature goes for good enough....
...and in doing so achieves sustainablerelationships....a symbiosis....
Wednesday, 6 November 13
€ € € €
Society
Ecology
The minimumdecision set
Wednesday, 6 November 13
€ € € €
Society
Ecology
The minimumdecision set
tec
hn
olo
gy
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Even more fundamental to all this is the advance and adoption of new technologythat is unpredicted/not fully understood
Wednesday, 6 November 13
old processes and industries
Susta
inabil
ity is
impo
ssible
by op
timizi
ng
Wednesday, 6 November 13
The Future
Wednesday, 6 November 13
The Future PrintingInstructing
NetworkingCollaboratingProgrammingRepurposing
RecyclingReusing
Bio Nano
AI, ALITC
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Machines are the biggest communicators
on the Planet
They dominate manufacture and production and are moving into design and general knowledge,
modeling and decision support
Wednesday, 6 November 13
even more than we do !
They need The Cloud
Wednesday, 6 November 13
The Internet cannot scale to 9Bn people
and over 50Bn machines on
line, but Clouds
can
Wednesday, 6 November 13
We are increasingly defeated by complexity,
but our machines are not !
Wednesday, 6 November 13
We are increasingly defeated by complexity,
but our machines are notNow outgunning humans on general and specific knowledge
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Ha l f L i f e o f Knowledge
Physics~13 yrs
Medical~ 4 yrs
Economics~ 9 yrs
Software~ 4 yrs
Marine Bio~ 2 yrs
Wednesday, 6 November 13
ITC is vital to our symbiosis
Material Technology the biggest game changer for industry and sustainability
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Thank You
ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Wednesday, 6 November 13
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