The Cook Political Report’s 2014 Election Road Map · retiring. Cantor out, but would Kevin McCarthy waltz in? ... The “déjà vu Election ...

The Cook Political Report’s

2014 Election Road Map

Presented by: David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor

Valve Manufacturers Association of America

September 20, 2014

Email: [email protected]

Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict

Best (or Worst) Ad of the Cycle?

JD Winteregg, OH-08: “It could be a matter of blood flow”

2014: The “Disruptive” Election?

Next Year’s New Congressman?

Next Year’s 87 Year Old Congressman?

Edwards Once Said: “I give blood so they can make Viagra”

Political Winner of the Summer?

Gov. Rick Perry

I: How Did We Get Here?

The Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel Indicator

In 2008, Obama won 80% of counties with a Whole

Foods, just 36% of counties with a Cracker Barrel

Lebanon, TN →

← Austin, TX

The Great Organic/Nostalgic Sort

Election

Year

Election Winner

Whole Foods

Counties

Cracker Barrel

Counties Culture

Gap

1992

Clinton (D) 60% 40% 20%

1996

Clinton (D) 66% 41% 25%

2000

Bush (R) 41% 73% 32%

2004

Bush (R) 38% 79% 41%

2008

Obama (D) 80% 36% 44%

Election 2012? Even More Polarized

Election

Year

Election Winner

Whole Foods

Counties

Cracker Barrel

Counties

Culture

Gap

2012 Obama (D) 77% 29% 48%

Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel

gap was widest ever

Romney’s rarely lived more

than 4.5 mi. from Whole Foods

1) Culture & Lifestyle Trump Policy

Courtesy: Patrick Ruffini

Higher Education May Be the “Great Equalizer,”

But It’s Now Also the Great Polarizer

The Diploma Belt:

In 1988, Michael Dukakis won 42 of the top 100 most educated counties

and 37 of the bottom 100 least educated counties in America.

In 2012, Barack Obama won 74 of the top 100 most educated counties

and 18 of the bottom 100 least educated counties in America.

2) Self-Sorting in the Electorate

New Pew Study: Conservatives Want Bigger

Houses, Liberals Desire “Walkability”

Minority Rule: In 2012, Pennsylvania’s Democratic candidates for House won

83,468 more votes than Republicans, but won just 5 of 18 seats (28%)!

Goal Posts Moved: Nationally, Democrats would need to win 6.8% (!) more

votes than House Republicans to win the barest possible House majority.

3) Gerrymandering: It’s Easier than Ever

for Politicians to Choose their Voters

The Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat, 1998-2014

4) The Indie Surge, 1988-Present (Gallup)

Congressional Approval Near Record Lows:

Who Are Those 15% Anyway?

As It Turns Out…

5) Voters’ Attachment to Their Own Members of

Congress Weakening

Actual 2012 Results – by County

Just 3 counties (Broward, FL; Cuyahoga, OH, Philadelphia, PA) reelected Obama

Obama won 62% of all Electoral College votes, but just 48% of all Congressional

districts (209 of 435) and just 22% of all counties (690 out of 3,114)

The Old “Default” Used to Be…

GOP White House & Dem Congress

Republicans Democrats - Controlled the White House

for 28 of 40 years between

1968 & 2008

- Controlled the House for

28 of the 40 years between

1968 & 2008

Democrats Republicans - Are Urban, More Minority, Younger - Are Rural, Whiter, Older

- Sufficient to Win Statewide Elections - Sufficient to Win Most Districts

- Turn Out ↑ in Presidential Elections - Turn Out ↑ in Midterm Elections

Democrats: Natural

advantage in statewide races

(President & maybe Senate)

Republicans: Coalition is

tailor-made to win the

majority of House districts

Today’s Divided Government: A

Reversal, Thanks to Geography

113th Congress, in Perspective:

Historically Few Enacted Laws

II: Where Are We Going?

Republican Brand at Record Unpopularity: GOP

Favorability Polling 10% Below Democrats

But, Guess What? It May Not Matter

2014 is quickly shaping up to be a Republican wave, with

substantial GOP gains possible in both the House & Senate

1) Obama’s Approval Ratings

Fit “Sixth Year Itch”

Historical Pattern

Presidential “Chickens Coming Home to Roost”

Bush lost 30 House/6 Senate seats in 2006. Obama lost 63

House/6 Senate seats in 2010. What about 2014?

Foreign Policy: Syria/Russia/Iraq Leaving Obama

with No Good Options

Foreign Policy: Once Obama’s strong suit, now it’s

hurting voters’ opinion of administration’s competence

This Morning’s New Washington Post/ABC Poll:

Absolutely Brutal

2) GOP’s Built-In Turnout Advantage:

The Boom & Bust Generation Gap

Democrats heavily reliant on big margins from voters 18-29,

but GOP-leaning seniors vote more in midterm elections

The Senate: A Jump Ball

Today: 55 Democrats (including 2 Independents

caucusing with Democrats), 45 Republicans

Cook Outlook: GOP gain of 4-8 seats. Senate control

in 2015 is a Toss Up.

Retirements in MT (Walsh), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)

Democrats Must Defend 7 (!) Seats in

Deeply Red Romney States:

Incumbents: Begich (AK), Pryor (AR), Landrieu (LA), Hagan (NC)

Razorback Rumble: Arkansas Senate

Will Tom Cotton come to regret his vote against the

Farm Bill? That’s when his momentum slowed…

Bayou Brawl: Louisiana Senate

Fasten your seat belts: this thing’s likely to go to a

December runoff

Carolina Clash: Hagan vs. Tillis

Could Libertarian pizza deliveryman

Sean Haugh spoil Republicans’

chances of taking over the Senate?

Retirements in IA (Harkin), MI (Levin)

…Not to Mention 5 More Potentially

Vulnerable Seats in Obama States:

Incumbents: Udall (CO), Franken (MN), Shaheen (NH)

Democrats’ Only Takeover Opportunities:

Kentucky and Georgia

Wild Card for Senate Control: Kansas

Why is Senate Control So Important?

Not-So-Secret Mission: Democrats launching 10-state, $60 million

“Bannock Street Project” with 4,000 field staff to hold the Senate

Four Supreme Court justices

over age of 75 (Scalia,

Kennedy, Breyer, Ginsburg)

Thanks to Reid’s “Nuclear

Option,” just 51 Senators needed

to confirm executive nominees

The Most Valuable Staffer on Every

Democratic Campaign in 2014:

Remember Akin & Mourdock?

Keep in Mind: If Republicans Win Senate in

2014, They Could Easily Lose it in 2016

In 2016, 23 Republican seats up for election, just

10 Democratic seats. (Why? Thank 2010)

2014 Part II: The House

Today: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats (Democrats

need +17 seats to win control)

Cook Outlook: GOP Gain of 2-12 seats

Remember: Don’t Threaten to Throw

Reporters Off Balconies

Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY): On verge of indictment

Vulnerable Democratic Seats (26)

Vulnerable Republican Seats (13)

House: Not Much Partisan Change, But

Generational Change in 2015?

Boehner: Top allies (Tom Latham, Frank Wolf, Mike Rogers, Dave Camp)

retiring. Cantor out, but would Kevin McCarthy waltz in?

Pelosi: Top allies (George Miller, Henry Waxman) retiring. But she can’t

stand the idea of Steny Hoyer taking over as Democratic Leader.

2014, Part III: Governors

Today: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats (Republicans

have 22 governorships to defend, Democrats 14)

Cook Outlook: Democratic Gain of 1-2 seats

Vulnerable Republican Governorships

Scott (FL), Brownback (KS), LePage (ME), Snyder (MI),

Corbett (PA), Walker (WI)

Vulnerable Democratic Governorships

Vulnerable: Malloy (CT), Abercrombie (HI), Quinn (IL)

Open seat in Arkansas (Beebe)

2016: Yup, It Began Before 2012 Ended

But: Republicans Need to Solve 3 Problems by 2016…

1) Republicans Have a Math Problem

1980: Ronald Reagan 2012: Mitt Romney

56% of the White Vote 59% of the White Vote

Won by 10% Lost by 4%

Won 489 Electoral Votes Won 202 Electoral Votes

Targeting Gap: Obama’s ad buying department was 10 times (!) Romney’s

Romney Lagged Behind: “We were building the plane as it was taking

off” – Alex Lundry, Romney chief data strategist

2) Republicans Have an Infrastructure Problem

Obama Field

Offices (10/18)

Romney Field

Offices (10/18)

618 251

3) Republicans Have an Empathy Problem

But, if 2016 is a “Change” Election, Democrats

Could Have an Even Bigger Problem

Age at Potential 2017 Inauguration…

Leading Democrats:

Leading Republicans:

69 74

54 49 53 45

In Six Months, Will We Meet the

“New & Improved Chris Christie?”

Total Makeover: Only a New Nominee in 2016

Can Resurrect the GOP Nationally:

The “Can Wins”

(Christie, Bush, Rubio,

Portman)

The “Tougher Sells”

(Cruz, Paul, Perry,

Carson)

The “Maybes”

(Walker, Kasich,

Pence, Huckabee?)

Meanwhile, on Democratic Side, Will She or

Won’t She?

For all of Republicans’ current problems, remember: it’s Democrats

may be lacking in “new blood” come 2016.

If not Hillary or Joe Biden, who? Cuomo, O’Malley, Warner,

Sanders, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Warren, Schweitzer?

2012 Lesson: Be Careful When You Refer to

“47% of Americans”…

Final Obama Total Final Romney Total

65,899,557

(51.06%)

60,931,959

(47.21%)

…You might just end up with them

On Election Night 2016, Watch…

2012: Obama 19,712 Romney 19,369

1) The “Bridge Brawl”

Andrew Cuomo (D) vs. Chris Christie (R)

A few dream matchups…

2) The “déjà vu Election”

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

3) Or My Personal Favorite…

Joe Biden (D) vs. Joe the Plumber (R)