The concept of Meteorological and Satellite Data Analysis

THE CONCEPT OF METEOROLOGICAL AND SATELLITE DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION IN REFERENCE TO BELG, KIREMT AND THE CURRENT BEGA 2015(UP

TO NOVEMBER 2ND DEKADE) SITUATION

ByByAlmaz DemessieAlmaz Demessie

M.Sc. IN TROPICAL AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT(Uk) M.Sc. IN TROPICAL AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT(Uk) Senior Agro meteorologist Senior Agro meteorologist and Early Warning expert, UNDP/GEF LDCF project Focal Person

Disaster Risk Management and Food Security SectorOffice tel: +251-114430578, Mobile tel: +251 -911-197120

E-mail: [email protected]

Strengthening the existing Early Warning Activities in terms of data collection, interpretation and information dissemination in order to establish timely response mechanism”, organized by DRMFSS and supported by UNDP/GEF LDCF project

December 4 – 5, 2015, Debre Zeit

30 –70% of annual product from Belg

5-30 % of annual product from Belg

Sowing and water harvesting as of April

Some examples

Some examples of WRSI outputs (areas with complete failure of Belg rainfall)

% Yield reduction by Zone Yield Reduction in % - 2015 Maize_Belg

Oromiya

No planting in most parts of Arsi and west Harargie

Bale Zone : 30-60% yield reduction observed over parts of western Bale (Goba, Dinsho, northern half of Mena, most parts of Harena Buluki, northern parts of Meda Welebu and most parts of Berebere and 60-100% of yield reduction over most parts of Meda, Guradamole, Goro, Ginir, Rayitu and Seweyna, eastern parts of Gololcha, western and southwestern parts of Legehida.

Guji Zone: 0-30% of yield reduction observed over Bore, Uraga, Hambala, Wamena, Kerecha, Dima, northern half of Adola, most parts of Giraja; 30-60% yield reduction over parts of northern Odo Shakiso, southern half of Adola and northern half of Wadera and 60-100% of yield reduction over most parts of Odo Shakiso, Liben and Wadera.

Borena Zone: 0-30% of yield reduction observed over Abaya, most parts of Gelana and Bule Hora; 30-60% yield reduction western parts of Dugda Dawa, northern half of Melka Sodo, western parts of Yabelo and parts of northern half of Teltele and 60-100% over central and eastern parts of Dugda Dawa, most parts of Yabello, Arero, Dillo, Dire, Dahas, Miyo and Moyale.

East Harargie Zone: 0-30% of yield reduction observed over Gola Oda, Meyu(0%), Midaga Tola and Melka Belo; 30-60% yield reduction over Girawa, northern parts Mesela, Deder, Tulo, Meta, Kurfachele, Haromaya and Kersa, and 60-100% over Goro Gutu.

West Harargie Zone: With the exception of northern and eastern parts of the Zone there was no planting for the remaining parts.

% Yield reduction by Zone Yield Reduction in % - 2015 Maize_Belg

Tigray Region

No planting in most parts of Belg growing areas while 90 - 100% of yield reduction observed over western parts of Raya Azabo, southeastern parts of Enda Mehone and southern parts of Ofla.

Amhara Region

No planting in some parts of Belg growing areas of Amhara while 90 – 100% yield reduction observed over North Wollo (Bugna, Lasta, Gidan, Kobo and parts of Meket), South Wollo (western parts of Werebabu, Tehuleder, southern parts of Kutaber, northern half of Dese Zuria, southeastern parts of Sayint, southern parts of Albuko) including some parts of North Shewa.

SNNP Region

0-30% of yield reduction observed over northern half of South Omo, Dawro(0%), western half of Hadiya, western parts of Wolayita, estern parts KT and a few area of northwestern and eastern margin of Gamo Gofa and 30-60% yield reduction over most parts of Gamo Gofa, Wolayita, KT and easter half of Hadiya inluding Special Woredas of Amaro, Konso, Derashe and Burji.

Monthly Percent of Normal rainfall distribution for Kiremt 2015

June 2015 July 2015

August 2015 September 2015

Final Index (WRSI) in fraction - 2015 Maize_Meher

Yield Reduction in % - 2015 Maize_Meher

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